JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Tuesday Open Thread

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Tuesday Open Thread, 8.2 out of 10 based on 5 ratings

51 comments to Tuesday Open Thread

  • #

    The early kiwi gets the first post again !!!

    Time for some travel advice from the IPCC

    https://agree-to-disagree.com/global-warming-travel-warning

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  • #
    Stanley

    The Beeb continues to go full climate change in respect of some villages in Fiji…”Villages near the sea are becoming abandoned as creeping tides submerge homes and resources, forcing residents to move inland to higher, safer ground.” No mention of any other cause apart from climate change, despite the island concerned being on the subducted side of a tectonic plate. Do these journalists ever wonder why creeping tides do not universally affect all coast lines and villages in Fiji, only some. Why would that be?

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    • #
      yarpos

      you are associating journalism with having an enquiring mind, thats funny stuff

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    • #
      MrGrimNasty

      Normal for the BBC, even places sinking at 2.5 METERS a decade (parts of Jakarta) are going under thanks to 3mm of sea level rise a year!

      The BBC’s favorite climate refugee fare is a tour of the world’s major sinking deltas, Mississippi, Ganges, Mekong……..

      50

  • #
    Peter C

    Why We (in Australia) Need Trump to Win Bigly in November.

    This short (4 minutes) video shows Rick Grenell speaking at a Trump Rally in Nevada.
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/09/14/ric-grenell-explains-the-big-ugly-outsider-trump-is-and-existential-threat/

    Short intro; Rick Grenell is the former US ambassador to Germany. He is Gay. As far as I know he is not a supporter of LGBRainbow. When Trumps nomination of John Ratcliffe for the ODNI (Director of National Intelligence) was blocked by the Senate (Republican), trump substituted Rick Grenell as Acting ODNI. Grenell set about declassifying everything he could get his hands on relating to the Muller inquiry into the Russian Collusion in the Trump 2016 campaign. The results are still playing out. Washington is exposed as a Uniparty (ie both Dems and Republicans), who have spent 4 years white-anting the peoples choice of President.

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  • #
    MrGrimNasty

    Latest England and Wales death stats – covid deaths continue to be insignificant, still no uptick to match ‘casedemic’, with daily cases increasing throughout Aug/Sep. The rapid growth in cases in recent weeks, if genuine, would take a while to show up in the death figures I expect.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending4september2020

    01

    • #
      tonyb

      Mr Grim Nasty

      Some vey serious upsurges in countries that have had a rigid mask policy for months, such as France Spain, Israel, Peru. UK numbers have risen since this policy came into effect. I am not saying masks cause more infections if not worn correctly (as most aren’t) just that it is interesting to observe this.

      30

      • #
        tonyb

        Have had a look round about mask effectiveness. Not sure there have been any scientifically peer studies as yet, but comments from experienced health care individuals and companies are interesting. Here is a good example which believes if worn incorrectly they can do more harm than good.

        https://www.vernacare.com/news-hub/blog/posts/2020/may/covid-19-expert-advice-on-ppe/

        I would observe from my town in the South West Of England, which is a a holiday area which brings in many people from all over the country, that a small percentage of visitors or locals could be said to be wearing or using masks correctly. Unless these people are unrepresentative of the areas of the country they come from, then it is likely that mask wearing is not being as effective as is claimed.

        Whether it is doing more harm than good I can not say, just that masked up areas overseas with huge fines and enforcement do not seem to be faring better than more loosely regulated countries.

        Will search for some more scientific reports

        40

        • #
          tonyb

          I have been looking for some better scientific proof of the effectiveness of Masks. Duke University seem to have carried out some actual tests, described here in some detail. The magazine linked to seems to have an agenda as the headline is a little misleading, but the nature of the tests and its resuilts can be clearly seen

          https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/face-mask-materials-safety-covid19-coronavirus-study/

          The upshot is that of the 14 different types of masks 12 were found to be effective. Two were likely to be harmful. However there were consdiderable caveats as to their use to make them properly effective against covid in either spreading or catching the virus (see the link) but perhps betterv explored here;

          ttps://www.womanandhome.com/health-and-wellbeing/health-wellbeing-news/expert-masks-advice-356045/

          “Most masks have gaps in them to which the virus can drive a bus through. When you are inhaling in a mask the virus can come in.”

          “It can do harm if you do wear a mask, you adjust it, it gets itchy and moist – which means you are putting your hand to your face more often. If the mask gets moist it traps the virus

          Dr Hilary Jones’ recommendations (not to wear them)were backed up by Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer for England, in a recent press conference.

          He said, “In terms of the hard evidence and what the UK Government recommends (note; this has changed) , we do not recommend face masks for general wearing by the public.

          “This has been a controversial area in public preparedness and planning for the 15 years I have been involved in it. ‘I was on the phone this morning to a colleague in Hong Kong who is a professor there who has done a review for the World Health Organisation on face masks

          We are of the same mind that there’s no evidence that general wearing of face masks by the public who are well affects the spread of the disease in our society.”

          It also adds, ‘Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.’

          So to summarise; If you wear the correct type of mask, change them every hour of use (disposables) or wash them after every outing, still socially distance, wash hands frequently, don’t touch your face or adjust your mask after fitting them correctly, then they will be effective and protect yourself and others.

          If you don’t follow all of the guidelines, wearing a mask may make you less likely to keep your distance and may do more harm than good because of these other important factors.

          My observation here in the UK comes from watching substantial numbers of people wearing masks who are here as tourists from all over the UK and as such are likely to be representative of the wider public.

          Unfortunately a fraction of the population would score 10 out of 10, most would score between 3 and 5 with the biggest problem being the ‘mask hokey cokey’ with masks put on and taken off, not covering nose and mouth, reduced hand washing, failure to replace or wash masks as appropriate, a failure to fit them properly and keeping their distance.

          Of course my friends in OZ might be much more diligent and if so and you would score highly, then masks are likely to be effective. If you have the numerous faults of the British mask wearing public then it seems unlikely you are protecting yourself or others but probably think you are.

          20

        • #

          Doctors wear different masks for a different purpose.

          There have been many studies using slow motion photography showing the spray of water droplets that may carry a virus will travel a shorter distance with any kind of mask over your face.

          The mask doesn’t protect you, it might protect someone else if you are infected and sneeze or cough in the direction of someone else.

          Of course if you are sneezing or coughing you should stay home and wouldn’t need a mask.

          But it seems some people are infected and have such mild symptoms they don’t realize they are sick. They might come in range of you.

          The six foot social distancing is not supported by any science.
          A violent sneeze or cough can send the spray over 20 feet. Any mask will shorten that distance by some unknown amount. That’s it.

          So masks are not likely to make a big difference in a pandemic but are better than nothing.

          If you touch your mask to adjust it all the time or use it again and again without washing it, you should not wear one.

          In my opinion, the main benefit of masks for me (I almost never wear one) is they remind me there is a pandemic and to stay away from others. On the other hand I’m told some people falsely think a mask makes it safe to get close to other people. It does not.

          So I’m saying I’ve work a mask four times in six months usually for an hour visit to a doctor’s office, which I will have to do again tomorrow. On a hot day with a mask on outside of one doctor’s office, my glasses fogged up and I almost walked into a light pole!

          20

          • #
            Serp

            A mask does impede one’s view of the ground and the airflow restriction ensures that I do not wear one for extended periods so I venture outside the gate as little as possible. As to walking recreationally without a mask, a natural activity to which I am accustomed, here in the Victorian autonomous province one could be tasered and handcuffed and then charged with incitement so I haven’t tried it lately.

            10

            • #

              After wearing a mask four times in six months, usually for an hour each, today I was forced to wear a mask for three hours at an opthamologist.
              My glasses fogged up on top of the blurry vision that brought me there. Horrible. They scolded me every time I lowered the mask below my nose to avoid the fogging problem.

              Then I had to be close to 4 differnt female technicians who measured everything you can measure about eyes. What good does a mask do if you are one foot from a technician?

              The doctor keep his distance but he wore a mask so I don’t even know what he looks like.

              20

  • #
    el gordo

    Donald comes out of the closet.

    “It’ll start getting cooler. You just watch,” Trump responded.

    “I wish science agreed with you,” Crowfoot responded.

    Trump replied: “I don’t think science knows actually.”

    SMH

    90

  • #
    tonyb

    Shocked to see the latest antics of the Melbourne police as they try to crush freedom marches.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/antilockdown-protests-happening-across-melbourne-as-video-emerges-of-dramatic-arrests/news-story/2bdb14c9b4a9b9177bfe5fc50360cafc

    If they do this to those pointing out the hysteria (sorry Jo) surrounding this belief we have the bubonic plague then I can only imagine the very fierce response to the Marxist and violent BLM and XR marches. They have been fierce responses haven’t they?

    Or is the police ‘exuberance’ only directed at those concerned about the greatest loos of freedoms by the general public in a western democracy, ever? (again sorry Jo, but its now a well referenced fact)

    110

  • #
    nb

    https://virginiaproject.com/files/The_Yan_Report.pdf
    Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated
    Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation
    of Its Probable Synthetic Route
    Li-Meng Yan (MD, PhD) et al.
    Abstract
    The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has led to over 910,000 deaths worldwide and unprecedented decimation of the global economy. Despite its tremendous impact, the origin of SARS-CoV-2 has remained mysterious and controversial. The natural origin theory, although widely accepted, lacks substantial support. The alternative theory that the virus may have come from a research laboratory is, however, strictly censored on peer-reviewed scientific journals. Nonetheless, SARS-CoV-2 shows biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring, zoonotic virus. In this report, we describe the genomic, structural, medical, and literature evidence, which, when considered together, strongly contradicts the natural origin theory. The evidence shows that SARS-CoV2 should be a laboratory product created by using bat coronaviruses ZC45 and/or ZXC21 as a template and/or backbone. Building upon the evidence, we further postulate a synthetic route for SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating that the laboratory-creation of this coronavirus is convenient and can be accomplished in approximately six months. Our work emphasizes the need for an independent investigation into the relevant research laboratories. It also argues for a critical look into certain recently published data, which, albeit problematic, was used to support and claim a natural origin of SARS-CoV-2. From a public health perspective, these actions are necessary as knowledge of the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and of how the virus entered the human population are of pivotal importance in the fundamental control of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as in preventing similar, future pandemics.
    Referred to at War Room: Pandemic Ep 385 – Hold the Victory (w/ Sharri Markson and Sam Faddis)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOHeFOlSeIs

    00

  • #

    I’m back!
    You guys have some serious fascists down in Victoria. My youtube suggest is filled with distubing videos from Sky News.

    In solidarity, I placed my boots outside on my front steps.

    In the meantime, enjoy:
    http://phzoe.com/2020/09/10/fouriers-accidental-confession/

    120

  • #
    Yonniestone

    Zoe some of us in Victoria have seen this coming for a while now, also consider Victoria police obtained 800 AR-15 rifles and 5.56 ammo (that we know of) in 2019.

    With the illegal use of State of disaster orders to strip the public of any civil rights one could suggest a long term plan has been contrived.

    If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – forever.

    100

    • #
      GD

      If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – forever

      In Victoria, the future has already arrived.

      The lead stomper has since been suspended. His accomplices are back on duty.

      60

  • #
    Mbenu

    Will Janoschka

    A few posters here have asked about Will. I regret to confirm that he passed away mid-2018. The circumstances of his passing are murky and the locals in the US small town did not contact Will’s family. I became aware when I requested a “wellness” check from the local sheriff.

    As Will’s daughter, I know he found great delight in the discussions (arguments/flaming?) here and elsewhere around the science and politics of climate change.

    He was a unique character and his sharp mind and scientific experience will be missed.

    [So sad to hear of your loss and yes he was a strong contributor to the forum, I will leave this post here so Jo will be sure to see it.]AD

    [Yes very sad, my condolences to you and family. Will was the source of challenging thought and sometimes enjoyably wacky (I'm sure it was his way of teaching). I had a few "side bar" conversations with him and I always thought it would be great to visit with him in person some day. If you care to put up a comment with some additional biography I'd enjoy that. Take care and thank you for the update.]ED

    70

  • #
    dinn, rob

    bat viruses ZXC21 and ZC45–main trail pursued by Dr. Yan Li-Meng
    https://balance10.blogspot.com/2020/09/bat-viruses-zxc21-and-zc45-main-trail.html

    10

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    If only they had a carbon (sic) tax …

    Climate Change Behind Rise And Fall Of Ancient Indus Valley Civilization, Says Study

    https://kreately.in/climate-change-behind-rise-and-fall-of-ancient-indus-valley-civilization-says-study/

    Mastodons migrated vast distances in response to climate change

    https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2020/09/01/Mastodons-migrated-vast-distances-in-response-to-climate-change/4091598968373/

    39,000-year-old cave bear is discovered perfectly preserved and baring its TEETH in Siberia: Scientists hail a discovery of ‘world importance’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8725911/39-000-year-old-cave-bear-discovered-perfectly-preserved-Siberia.html

    “The scientists in Yakutsk – the coldest city in the world – will reveal more details about the cub which was found in thawing permafrost on the Russian mainland in Yakutia.
    Recent years have seen major discoveries of mammoths, woolly rhinos and other extinct species as the permafrost thaws in Siberia.”

    40

  • #

    Just shows how we are all different. It has been a lovely early autumn evening here on the south coast of England and we took the opportunity of having a drink in an outside hotel bar overlooking our beautiful bay, no masks in sight thank goodness.

    There were a couple of fire jugglers on the beach and a pod of dolphins swimming in the languid water .

    Two groups arrived from the hotel who obviously didn’t know each other.

    In the Bay a few hundred yards off shore are moored four large P and O cruisers waiting for the ok to be given to resume cruising. Total capacity of ships around 10000 and they have been there for around 12 weeks, empty except for a small crew

    One woman said grumpily I would much rather be on one of those cruise ships than here.

    The woman at the other table said ‘well we arrived here today and looking out of our window we can see the very ship we should have been on at this moment if the cruise hadn’t been cancelled! So at least we know where they are.’

    I remember back in march we were practically pleading with someone on this very blog not to go on the cruise they had booked as several ships had all the problems on board with corona virus with tragic consequences.

    I don’t know about anyone else here but I couldn’t think of anything worse than going on a cruise at any time, let alone at this time but obviously judging by the enthusiasm from two unconnected parties there are a lot of fans.

    40

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    After all, it is 2020 …

    15 September, 2020: Space news: An asteroid the size of London Bridge set to enter Earth’s orbit on Thursday

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/54158127?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science_and_environment&link_location=live-reporting-story

    “But there is nothing to worry about – it will pass by our planet at a safe distance – precisely 1,592,819 miles away from Earth.”

    A bit like doomsday global warming.

    50

  • #
    el gordo

    The US political culture is unique.

    ‘A 2010 survey showed that about 40% of Americans believe that Jesus is likely to return by 2050. This varies from 58% of white evangelical Christians, through 32% of Catholics to 27% of white mainline Protestants. Belief in the Second Coming was popularised in the US in the late nineteenth century by the evangelist Dwight L. Moody and the premillennial interpretation became one of the core components of Christian fundamentalism in the 1920s.’ wiki

    00

  • #
    Greg in NZ

    ‘Worst USA hurricane season EVAH’ blurted the young news reader on the radio, so thought I’d check the science to make sure I wasn’t being lied to again.

    https://www.tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

    Shock! Horror! It was all lies: 2020 was yet another fairly average year for ‘man-made’ hurricanes in the North Atlantic. The only increase was in the naming of puffs of clouds as tropical storms. And as for typhoons in the NW Pacific, to date the season is BELOW average. Must be our fault; take a bow everyone, well done!

    50

  • #
    Orson

    Covid-19 origins is not zoonotic but man made. This is the thesis of a new paper by a group of Chinese scientists out of New York.
    https://zenodo.org/record/4028830#.X2FI3S-xVvL

    It is a mouthful title e: “Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route”

    Yan, Li-Meng; Kang, Shu; Guan, Jie; Hu, Shanchang

    The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has led to over 910,000 deaths worldwide and unprecedented decimation of the global economy. Despite its tremendous impact, the origin of SARS-CoV-2 has remained mysterious and controversial. The natural origin theory, although widely accepted, lacks substantial support. The alternative theory that the virus may have come from a research laboratory is, however, strictly censored on peer-reviewed scientific journals. Nonetheless, SARS-CoV-2 shows biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring, zoonotic virus. In this report, we describe the genomic, structural, medical, and literature evidence, which, when considered together, strongly contradicts the natural origin theory. The evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 should be a laboratory product created by using bat coronaviruses ZC45 and/or ZXC21 as a template and/or backbone. Building upon the evidence, we further postulate a synthetic route for SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating that the laboratory-creation of this coronavirus is convenient and can be accomplished in approximately six months. Our work emphasizes the need for an independent investigation into the relevant research laboratories. It also argues for a critical look into certain recently published data, which, albeit problematic, was used to support and claim a natural origin of SARS-CoV-2.

    30

  • #
    Orson

    Oops! I see that n b has beat me to sharing this information. Sorry.

    30

  • #
    el gordo

    The curse of a meandering jet stream.

    ‘Weather extremes are set to lash each side of the country this week, with choking heat in the west and heavy rain in the east.

    ‘North-western parts of Australia will scorch through above average temperatures for days to come as record-breaking winter heat rolls into spring.

    ‘A hot, dry air mass lingering across Western Australia’s Kimberly region saw the mercury hit as much as 10C above average on Wednesday, as residents brace for more warm weather.’ Daily Mail

    10

  • #
  • #
    yarpos

    In my States totalitarian dictatorship one is required to wear a mask when not at home (but not in the car thankfully)

    I found it ironic yesterday as I went into the bank the othe day that there was a sign on the door ” no mask no entry ”

    I remember the days when putting on a mask before entering a bank would cause a bit of a panic

    40

    • #
      Annie

      That made me smile. When I first went into our friendly local bank wearing a mask, I hesitated at the door and asked if it was ok to come in, and was assured that it was. That was long before masks became compulsory.
      I keep mine on if driving between different places in town but very gladly remove it after the last stop, at the supermarket.

      20

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