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Good news: Mystery cases falling fast in Victoria, staying low in Sydney

Finally, some unexpectedly good news on community spread in Victoria:

Untrackable new cases in Victoria are drying up.  The incidence of community spread cases with an unknown source are every epidemiologists nightmare. So their absence is a marker of how well the restrictions work– and whether the “fire” is under control. It’s cheery news.

Community spread is the number that matters most — more than daily infections. Known cases can be track-and-traced. Unknown cases mean whole clusters are spreading invisibly and restrictions need to be wider. Despite the depressing schedule planned in Victoria, if this reduction in unknown cases is sustained, then other options for pandemic management become possible.  The NSW-style-management with intense tracking and tracing may suddenly become an option within weeks.  (Though there may be a 50 case spike tomorrow just to prove me wrong.) Tracking and tracing works best at lower levels, and becomes overwhelming quickly as the number of clusters rise.

With strong restrictions, the exponential rise in infections can become an exponential fall. Where before each person might infect three new people, now three people staying home are only infecting one (or something like that). Two lines get extinguished instead of amplified, as the virus runs out of fresh bodies to hijack.

Victorians, no doubt, are fed up to the nth with lockdowns. At least a graph like this shows the end is in sight, and the isolates have achieved something. It augurs well.

Victoria, unknown cases of Covid-19, Sept 2020. Graph

Victoria, unknown cases of Covid-19, March to Sept 2020.

Unknown cases in NSW are also graphed (in blue, above) for comparison (and below in more detail). The spread in the Victorian community was vastly larger than what NSW faced in March when many cases were from overseas.

Don’t confuse this graph up for Daily New Cases, which are still coming in this week at 112, 79, 64, 59, 36…. New infections are still popping up, but mostly they are connected to known outbreaks, which are easier to manage (usually).

The Victorian modeling of how long strict conditions need to run apparently doesn’t take this into account. So the harsh conditions are likely to end sooner than expected as long as people stay distant.

The modelling did not attempt to estimate the number of community transmission “mystery cases” in the weeks ahead, nor did it model differing risks of transmission in industries like healthcare and meatworks.

The makeup of cases each day is important in determining the risk of a resurgence.

This is especially promising when we consider how well NSW is doing.

For the last two months NSW has danced with the tiger and kept daily new mystery source cases under 5.

Given that this was in winter, in a big city, this is good news too. This appears to be quite the success with tracking and tracing, and presumably with compliance.

NSW, unknown cases of Covid-19, Sept 2020. Graph

NSW, unknown cases of Covid-19, June to September 2020.

Currently there are a stream of random closures of schools or gyms and resturants. Sydneysiders can have gatherings of up to 20 people at one time. Funerals, with 100. Weddings with 150 people. Large sporting events are limited to 500.  Stadiums are at 25% capacity.

The problem is, of course, that NSW is running along a razor thin fence, one superspreader event away from bad news, and while they are moving a lot more than they were during the official lockdowns of April, it is still below normal levels.

Let’s hope the numbers stay this low. At least in Australia, days are getting longer, and the sun and Vitamin D are rising.

Data:

NSW restrictions.

  • Community Transmissions:
  • https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-community-transmission/vic
  • https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-community-transmission/nsw
  • Covid deaths Australia: https://www.covid19data.com.au/deaths
  • Covid demographics Australia: https://www.covid19data.com.au/demographics
VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 6.9/10 (43 votes cast)
Good news: Mystery cases falling fast in Victoria, staying low in Sydney, 6.9 out of 10 based on 43 ratings

91 comments to Good news: Mystery cases falling fast in Victoria, staying low in Sydney

  • #
    Just Thinkin'

    Crikey, dangerous dan can’t have this..

    What are his thugs going to do?
    Do you notice that these thugs don’t
    anti-social distance?

    200

    • #
      GD

      Do you notice that these thugs don’t
      anti-social distance?

      Yes, it’s amazing how the Victorian Police can congregate and walk around in groups of ten without any social distancing, yet an elderly lady and her friend sitting on a park bench are somehow a threat to public health and safety.

      320

      • #
        GD

        Here’s the link.

        In this case, it was only five police needed to subdue two obviously dangerous elderly ladies sitting on a park bench. Watch as the second police-person grabs the mobile phone from the woman’s companion.

        240

        • #
          PeterS

          Pure harassment. What if someone is too tired to walk and just needed some time to rest? Is that illegal too now? The police there might as well put on N.zi uniforms.

          230

      • #
        Deano

        Surely those cops are walk-up starters for the next police bravery awards.

        20

    • #
      RickWill

      Do you notice that these thugs don’t anti-social distance?

      The police normally wear masks and they are OK if there is no exertion involved. I know for certain that there has been transmission in hospitals when someone with Covid and flailing about is restrained by nursing staff. Almost impossible to avoid some contamination.

      Dandenong Police centre currently has an outbreak of 11 officers. There were the police physically battling with would be protesters walking around in large groups in Dandenong. There were violent clashes:
      https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/police-and-protesters-clash-in-dandenong-20200827-p55psf.html
      Under these circumstances there is very high risk of transmission if any protester has the infection.

      88

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    We in NSW were lucky.
    For example, my eldest daughter spent 2 weeks in quarantine, at the Mercure Circular Quay (Visa renewal for the USA requires you to apply from overseas), and was supported by my youngest daughter dropping off care packets. Both then traveled north to stay with me. Just before leaving to return to Sydney, my youngest got a call from the contact tracers, saying that she needed to take a test (eldest was negative twice), which she did, and self isolated while waiting for the result. The reason was that an infected security guard’s shift coincided with one of those drop offs. Luckily she was negative.

    Now imagine the same series of events, but this time in Victoria – it is likely that I (to the delight of commentators here, I’m sure) would have been infected, possibly fatally.

    As I say – luck

    85

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      “it is likely that I (to the delight of commentators here, I’m sure) would have been infected, possibly fatally.”

      Not really.

      Our greatest concern would have been for the Koalas.

      CV19 moving through innocent Koalas is not something to contemplate. Next area of concern would have been for the microbiome of the peat bogs in the area.

      Both worth preserving.

      112

    • #
      Annie

      I would not have been delighted if you had been infected Peter F. I don’t think like that. That’s more like lefty thinking, of which I am not guilty.
      Glad to hear that your daughters are ok. Things were handled well there, unlike here in Vic.

      82

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    COVID itself may not be political.
    But virtually all of our social and economic life will reflect the politics of COVID,
    and how it was handled; almost regardless of the pandemic statistics themselves.

    IN the US
    The ten states with lowest unemployment rates are: Utah (4.5%), Nebraska (4.8%), Idaho (5.0%), Kentucky (5.7%), South Dakota (6.3%), Montana (6.4%), Iowa (6.6%), North Dakota (6.6%), Missouri (6.9%), and Wisconsin (7.0%). The ten states with the highest unemployment rates are: Massachusetts (16.1%), New York (15.9%), Nevada (14.0%), New Jersey (13.8%), Pennsylvania (13.7%), California (13.3%), Hawaii (13.1%), New Mexico (12.7%), Alaska (11.6%), and Illinois (11.3%).

    The ten states with the lowest rates are all states that voted for Trump in 2016, and were generally the least locked down.

    Death rate by state, you ask (which somewhat corrects for population)
    New Jersey
    New York
    Massachussetts
    Connecticut
    Louisana
    Rhode Island
    District of Columbia
    Arizona
    Michigan
    Illinois
    Delaware
    MAryland
    Pennsylvania

    I don’t care if it’s budgeting, riot control, Covid, fire management, blackouts, or educational freedom, I just don’t see much reason
    to live in a liberal jurisdiction in one of our confederations. Folks on the left don ‘t seem to be very good at the government thing.

    310

    • #
      PeterS

      Get used to it I’m afraid. It’s going to get much worse before it gets better. The Marxist tendencies at various places of authority, politics, education and business is spreading far and wide without any resistance by Western leaders apart from Trump, who won’t be there for much longer, be it a few months or some 4 years. Perhaps if Trump wins things will turn far more sinister as the left go to the next level and as a result expose themselves for what they really are; anarchists who desire so strongly to destroy the West, in which case they must be treated as terrorists and traitors, with suitable punishment dished out to all of them but in particular their main supporters and leaders.

      180

      • #
        David Maddison

        Hopefully Trump will be re-elected and if so, he needs to immediately start grooming a successor.

        It’s unthinkable that the Dems will win because they’ll restart Obama’s mission to destroy the United States. Fortunately, they have, by design, the Second Amendment, if that horrific event happens.

        162

        • #
          PeterS

          Perhaps he can remain President for much longer by declaring a state of emergency. I don’t know enough about the constitution. The left would go nuts.

          31

          • #
            Serp

            I’d rather we leave it to the electoral process PeterS so that people live with their choices for four years as Victorians are doing; you won’t fix the political process by perverting it in the way Erdogan, Putin, Xi and dozens of lesser known despots have done.

            00

      • #
        Annie

        ‘Sinister’ means ‘left’ anyway.

        70

      • #
        noisemarine

        The swamp -will not- let Trump win. A few Australian commentators have already touched on this, but I encourage everyone to check the following couple of links. The second is longer, but has more detail.

        https://americanmind.org/essays/the-coming-coup/
        https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bipartisan-washington-insiders-reveal-their-plan-chaos-if-trump-wins-election

        10

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I think if the left steals the election, I think the US will kick off into civil war.

          I think regardless of the outcome, civil war could happen. The left cant handle being beaten they throw the teddy out of the pram if they cant get their own way.

          The Left, if they kick off, will be put down by the silent majority, who I think have had a gut full of the lunatic left and its frankly PC/insane behaviour for so long. Payback could be nasty.

          I think the US may briefly resort to the old Wild West to mop things up, and then back to normalacy. Expect to see many dead I think, most lefties / anarchists who tried it on and lost. The americans wont put up with it.

          The only kicker might be if the left call in favours from an outside communist nation to either nuke a US city as a game changer, or provide extra “ground resources” or hit the US with an EMP. Either way, I think the american people will prevail and drive the lunatics into the sea, but it may take a while…

          50

          • #
            noisemarine

            One of the main issues raised in the articles is that the swamp owns the traditional media, social media, and Google. The plan is to de-platform Trump and presumably any patriots while running a loud, disinformation campaign to sway opinion toward themselves and away from Trump/patriots. When you see it happening, you’ll know it’s a sham.

            There is also conjecture as to which side the military will take. The rank and file apparently love Trump, but the leadership do not (Trump is taking their wars away). I think it’s a given that Axis-like countries will take advantage while America is distracted. All of that can only be bad for countries like Australia.

            50

    • #
      Lucky

      Richard Ilfeld, yes.
      There is a claim that there is a correlation between numbers of infection cases and level of lockdown, so more lockdown, more infection. I have an explanation for that but it is too cynical for this site. The simplest explanation is poor data accuracy and definitions.

      00

  • #
    David Maddison

    Does “case numbers” mean positives from testing, because as Donald Trump said, the more you look for, the more you’ll find. And we’re doing massively more testing. Many will test positive but will be asymptomatic. The PCR test itself is of dubious reliability in any case.

    Or does case numbers refer to people with actual confirmed clinical symptoms of the infection which is definitely confirmed to be C-19 and not some other common respiratory infection?

    I have growing mistrust of government issued “statistics”. C-19 has gone the way of “global warming” and for the same reasons. Destruction of Western Civilisation by the Left is the goal but C-19 is doing it much faster than any Leftist apart from a Wuhan genetic engineer could ever have hoped for.

    221

    • #
      John R Smith

      yes …
      A positive test is a “case”.
      Lots of folk are getting test to find out if they themselves are a “case”.
      Otherwise they wouldn’t know.
      That’d how deadly this plague is.

      271

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      This report is interesting on two fronts:
      The numbers from India, and the fact that is not just the ABC reporting them, but they include the word “treatment”, a first?

      ” Health authorities say the rising infections also reflect higher rates of testing nationwide, adding that high recovery rates show its strategy of testing, tracing and treatment is working and the situation is under control in a country of its size. ”

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-07/india-surges-to-worlds-second-worst-coronavirus-caseload/12638170

      The report includes case numbers, populations and deaths for India, US and Brazil, for which the death numbers are 71,642; 193,000; and 126,000 respectively.
      It does not include any detail about the “treatment” being used, but I think it’s based on hydroxychloroquine. I’ve put in a question to them asking for detail. Should I hold my breath?
      Cheers
      Dave B

      60

      • #
        David Maddison

        Yes David, hold your breath. Their ABC would never admit that appropriately used HCQ (Zelenko Protocol) works.

        Because “orange man bad”.

        121

      • #
        RickWill

        Should I hold my breath?

        No – there is no need. HCQ id being prescribed for front line Covid medics:
        https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666351120300139

        The current treatment protocols include real-time PCR test and Point-of-Care molecular diagnostic assays for its diagnosis; some states in India have begun the pool testing. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is being recommended as chemoprophylaxis drug for asymptomatic healthcare personnel handling COVID-19 cases, frontline workers, and asymptomatic contacts of the confirmed cases, while hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin combination for patients with serious sickness. India has also launched ‘ArogyaSetu’ mobile-application for tracking the movements of the citizens and has also commenced convalescent plasma therapy to combat the deadly COVID-19.

        The thing about emerging nations is that they are unwoke. They do not care if Trump uses it. If it works then they are also happy to use it. I would not be surprised if Fauci, Sanders, Biden and Pelosi have all dosed up on HCQ. It was likely an early recommendation for all aged politicians in the USA. The initial resistance in Australia was because the availability wass low. India is the main production centre for HCQ.

        51

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          Thanks RickWill,
          The paper you linked to is from May, and doesn’t mention zinc. It also recommends the use of hcq for serious cases which is different from Zelenko, but perhaps that’s changed.
          Cheers
          Dave B

          10

          • #
            RickWill

            One of the factors likely to be contributing to low death rate in India is the demographics. Life expectancy is 69.7.

            In Australia, life expectancy is one of the highest in the world at 82.5. I know a physician in a Melbourne hospital who has now singed off on may Covid death certificates and the youngest is 72. On a population basis, there would be proportionally fewer over 70s presenting at Indian hospitals than Australia. Also I do not know if India offers the nesting of aged in home care like Australia does. Once the infection gets into an aged care home it is VERY challenging to eradicate in that setting.

            Although the likelihood of someone under 70 dying of Covid in Australia is definitely low, there is about a 50% chance that a 40yo and above, presenting at hospital, will end up in ICU; just that those under 70 are more likely to survive the rigours of that treatment than over 70s. Also there is no point putting a frail person through the rigours of intubation as the outcome is near certain.

            11

    • #
      wal1957

      As soon as I hear that ‘the modelling’ shows…
      I tend to tune out.
      The modelling in a lot, if not most cases invariably is proven to be incorrect.
      So we have corrupted the worlds best energy grid based on a lie. Now we,(they), are intent on bankrupting the nation by refusing to look at the bigger picture.
      Our leaders are worth more money! Just ask them.

      100

    • #
      RickWill

      Does “case numbers” mean positives from testing,

      In Victoria, anyone with symptoms should seek a Covid test. The only reason for testing if you do not have symptoms are if you have been a close contact or you are required for work or a few other reasons like a transfer within aged care or between hospital wards. If you do not have symptoms, you may not test positive but you are infected and will eventually develop symptoms. There is a risk attached to testing negative before symptoms develop; it gives the individual false sense of being infection free. That is the reason for the 14 day quarantine. If you have not got symptoms after 14 days then there is very little chance of having the virus or spreading it.

      I know (from the supervising physician) of a nurse who was a close contact in a hospital setting who tested negative but remained in isolation because she developed symptoms before returning to work. She was tested positive once symptoms developed.

      Hay fever is a big factor in Melbourne and that can give some of the Covid symptoms and I figure a big factor in keeping testing clinics active but not detecting Covid cases. A portion of those presenting at hospital with high temperature and headaches have urinary tract infections but they are treated as Suspected Covid until they get a negative test.

      The test for the actual virus are very reliable. The linked report gives the validation of the Chinese test instrument and protocol used in Australia:
      https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/06/post-market-validation-of-the-beijing-genomics-institute-bgi-sars-cov-2-real-time-pcr-platform.pdf

      Sensitivity of the testing platform used in each laboratory was assessed on 271 samples. These were made up of 156 spiked positive samples and 115 true negative samples. The test sensitivity of Laboratory 1, 2 and 3 was demonstrated to be 94.2%, 98.1% and 99.4%, respectively (Table 2).

      The LoD for each laboratory’s testing platform was defined as the highest dilution at which all four replicate samples were detected. Laboratory 1, Laboratory 2 and Laboratory 3 had LoD of 1/16,384,000, 1/65,536,000 and 1/65,536,000, respectively (Table 1). It is worth noting that only 3 out of 4 replicates were detected at 1/16,384,000 for Laboratory 2 but since all replicates were detected at the next dilution the latter was scored as the LoD.

      23

      • #
        RickWill

        Most of the failure in the ‘testing’ in Victoria is due to shortage of stone needed to carve the notices. They tried Faxes but the technology was beyond the staff recruited for the job.

        Apparently the NSW contact tracers, offered by NSW to assist with tracing in Victoria, were gobsmacked that they they were still using carved stone for messaging. It made it difficult to assist with tracing remotely. The Stone Age methods resulted in considerable confusion with the wrong people being advised they have the virus when they are virus free and people advised being virus free when they actually tested positive. It appears that bringing military personnel in to oversee the tracing operation plus providing foot soldiers door knocking has been a success. Something Dan reluctantly agreed to.
        https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/nsw-a-better-example-of-how-to-contain-an-outbreak-pm-20200716-p55chu

        Mr Morrison said the 1000 Australian Defence Force personnel that Mr Andrews agreed to accept this week would focus heavily on contact tracing.

        “We’ve got to get on top of the tracing challenge in Victoria,” he said.

        22

      • #
        Lucky

        RickWill-
        Thanks for the post 4.4 giving the paper on pcr equipment testing dated 10 Jun e2020. It appears to be the only such thing I have seen, at least here, I mean an actual test of the test, after my skeptical remarks on pcr based tests.
        It is very hard to read, like another language, full of tech terminology.
        Validation is concluded but of what? The Chinese equipment purchased or the generic methodology? I think of the purchase, if you are buying a machine then this one will do.
        I am curious what this ‘emergency exemption’ means.
        Other points I note are:
        – 271 positive and negative samples
        – randomized
        – previously screened negative human swabs
        – other seasonal respiratory viruses
        – 45 pcr cycles
        To me, amplification is the crucial issue. Has this been dealt with? I see ref to 45 pcr cycles. Note the extreme sensitivity of the result to this
        (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/09/07/covid-19-testing-1000-times-too-sensitive/).
        I may have missed ref to ‘double blind’ as would be applicable here.
        Because of the way test results are being used, I would not go ahead on pcr testing on the basis of this paper. I’d need to understand the approach to false positives, I could not tell how it responds to other corona-viruses, flu, human RNA, etc. and the test protocols used in the field.
        Still, it is good to see an evidence based enquiry.
        A question- If the machine does what it should, the amplification uncertainty remains. This could be reduced by acknowledging it is variable and controllable. So, why not report the amplification number of cycles needed to get a positive reading? This would give a measure of viral load which yes/no does not.

        00

    • #
      Salome

      On the ABC, of all things, I heard a doctor in Hong Kong saying he wasn’t in a hurry to participate in a generalised testing program because the number of false positives (about five per cent) was likely to swamp the number of actual infections.

      60

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Funny how Dan Dan the Lockdown Man was I suspect was within mm of hosting Victorians with torches and pitchforks at his office in Spring Street, and mysteriously it all improves…that was close…the NWO were close to losing what appears to be one of thier more effective useful idiots….

    Hooray….the control grid stats in place….

    /sarc

    110

  • #
    Drapetomania

    John R Smith
    September 8, 2020 at 7:37 am · Reply
    yes …
A positive test is a “case”.
Lots of folk are getting test to find out if they themselves are a “case”.
Otherwise they wouldn’t know.
That’d how deadly this plague is.

    Poes law?
    Just in case you were not trying to be ironic/sarcastic…
    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/covid-why-terminology-really-matters/

    40

    • #
      John R Smith

      thank you
      Totally awesome article.
      The use of the ‘case’ word has infuriated me since this started.
      I find it hard to believe the misuse is just incompetence.
      Don’t know Poe’s Law …
      Video killed the radio star and liberals have killed sarcasm.

      10

  • #
    Serge Wright

    Tracing contacts is very easy in a lockdown when you only need to check the other people living in the same residence. The big question will be how well can Andrews manage the situation if he ever decides to free the people. What NSW has shown, is that you can still reduce the spread without a full lockdown, as evidenced by the way they managed the Andrews initiated virus escape from the quarantine centres. The other issue in Victoria is the higher percentage of left wing voters that consider a pandemic to be the prime time for organising a mass protest on issues that are irrelevent to their own country.

    90

    • #
      el gordo

      A mate of mine in Melbourne reckons the rent a crowd are ‘misfits, anarchists, libertarians and greens among anti maskers and anti vaxers.’

      55

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        There would have been a few yahoos in there for sure, however I think when many normal people defy a police directive, something is clearly wrong….

        Yeah Ive found through experince that many people who sneer at those who exercise choice aren’t that bright, often weaned on the teat of MSM “news”. Such people I doubt have many original thoughts at all.

        Question – is being an “anti-vaxxer” a matter of exercising your freedom of choice, or is it just the (States’) definition of “lunacy” to suit its own ends?

        Or more succinctly – ignoring the States ongoing pressure to mask-up/vaccinate your family is a right, but the way the State piles on the pressure ( often through the medical industry ) you would think it wasn’t.

        I was appalled at the huge pressure that gets piled on young ( and often hugely under-pressure ) mums by the State, to vaccinate their kids when they are in their most vulnerable state. Not once did I see a State-provided advocate allocated to actually discuss options. Doctors make money from vaccines, so there is a potential conflict of interest.

        This whole situation brings to a head a whole bunch of issues that have always been below the surface, but now bubble up under pressure. Interesting times ahead….

        61

        • #
          el gordo

          Doctors are generally in the grip of big pharma, alternative therapies are considered old wives tails. There is a huge conflict of interest, but its the age we live in.

          The Covid vaccine will be offered the same as the flu vaccine, non mandatory. I note your concern over pressuring people to vaccinate their children, it is what it is, we are helpless.

          03

  • #
    Gabriel Pentelie

    “For the last two months NSW has danced with the tiger …”

    Not even close. The Tiger is still out there, lurking outside the cage that Australia chose to imprison itself within, awaiting the day WHEN (not IF) Australia opens the door to said cage.

    You better hope that OTHERS (the U.S.? Russia? China? Israel? Etc.?) come up with an effective vaccine (or, at least, an effective therapeutic treatment) before that day arrives. For if not, you’ll find out that what you’ve been congratulating yourselves about having valiantly “crushed” is not a Tiger but a mere … Kitten.

    PS:
    Same goes for New Zealand.

    71

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      There are several treatments available now, and some, maybe all, can be used as preventatives. Why not just demand that airlines refuse boarding to anyone who, for example, isn’t symptom free and on the anti-malarial hydroxychloroquine at check-in?
      Cheers
      Dave B

      71

      • #
        Gabriel Pentelie

        You can be tested as being symptom-free while also on HCQ at, say, noon on Sunday. Question is, will you be tested as symptom-free while also on HCQ at, say, noon the following Monday?

        After all, …

        Let’s not forget about the “Honest, your honor, I’ve been taking HCQ for 2 weeks, AT LEAST! Look, I even have MY doctor’s note to PROVE it!” games that not only CAN be, but DO and WOULD get played.

        10

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Heres the thing – the CDC has said very clearly, this thing is effectively downgraded by 94% in terms of severity.

          As such – why is anyone worried?

          As we’ve seen, and as it appears Herr Adrws has shown , its not about the virus, and never was , its about power and control.

          The virus is the boogey man to keep everyone in masks and scared, but the reality is this virus is a pussy and lockdowns should end today.

          30

          • #

            Regarding testing, the more you look the more you don’t find in WA.
            Zero cases in the community in 140 days despite thousands of tests. But a few positives here and there in quarantine regularly. It is behaving exactly as we’d expect a useful test to work.

            The PCR test has been used for 35 years in all viruses, forensic studies, fossil and anthropology research, and tens of thousands of legal cases. It isn’t perfect, but every scientific test, even taking a temperature, has an error bar. Why not discuss the actual rate of errors rather than ruling out a scientific test entirely because we don’t like them?

            53

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          G’day Gabriel,
          I’m sufficiently confident of the value of hcq to say that the answer to your first question is that the second test – if reliable – would be negative.
          As to the second part, if made a condition of entry and part of getting a visa, any non-compliance would result in cancellation of the visa and immediate deportation on detection, maybe quarantine at their expense if a citizen.
          Cheers
          Dave B

          11

    • #
      Matty

      It’s closing in on one year since this bug got rolling and it’s looking all very familiar now. I went into it assuming that I would catch the virus and I probably still will but it might take another two-three years at this rate. It’s like trying to stop the common cold. No functioning civilization can afford to do this. It’s looking like the Vietnam war where no one really knows the exit plan but they are prescribing an existence that is contrary to human nature. Nearly 330,000 casualties of war(in Australian case) and all for freedom and way of life. For an airborne bug that is global, we handed it all over to activist DR’s without question while they make it up as they go. Dissenting DR’s are getting tarred just like they do in the climate debate and I’m surprised more people haven’y picked this up.

      We need that vaccine and not because it’s going to work, but because without it the ruling class do not have a mechanism to undo the madness. People have been dying of Corona viruses in aged care homes since we built aged care homes and we called it natural causes. In time Covid-19 will be treated the same way. Aged care is not pretty I know this from experience but it was never meant to be prison as well. Saving lives….or saving some Premier’s backside? It’s pantomime. Is it also possible that fifty years ago when we weren’t so over weight, diseased and unfit, when we didn’t have a bulging frail aged demographic, this virus may have passed through without any alarms going off?

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      RickWill

      AZD1222 will be available in large quantity Jan/Feb 2021. There are already large scale trials in process:

      On August 31, 2020, the company said in a media statement: ‘clinical development of AZD1222 is progressing globally with late-stage clinical trials ongoing in the UK, Brazil, and South Africa and trials are planned to start in Japan and Russia. These trials, together with the US Phase III clinical trial will enroll up to 50,000 participants globally.

      If the vaccine is proven to be safe and effective, the first doses to be produced under this agreement are anticipated to be available in early 2021. Vaccines will be released on a rolling basis as production is completed, and the full quota of 300 million doses is expected to be available by July 2021.

      Australia is geared up to produce 30M of AZD1222 in early 2021 and 50M of UQ V451. The latter is in early phase human trials so would be going into large scale trials by the end of the year. There is not point in doing efficacy human trials in Australia because exposure to Covid is so low. Tolerance trials are currently under way.

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      el gordo

      Mainland China has 10 new infections and a couple of other suspects on notice, but no new deaths. Herd immunity is not on their agenda, its a designer virus.

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    Thousands of Americans have died and are still dying because of a bureaucracy and MSM blinded by TDS. Experience in this and other countries have demonstrated that early use of hydroxychloroquine will reduce bad outcomes (hospitalization, death) by 50 to 80%.

    Back in April, Trump suggested hydroxychloroquine might be useful against covid-19. He was relentlessly berated by the MSM and others inflicted with TDS. Combined with corruption and conflict of interest, this has resulted in it not being widely used in the U.S. Turns out Trump was right.

    Henry Ford Health System study found that HCQ alone reduced death rate from covid by 50%. https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/hydro-treatment-study

    Swiss and French experience showed 2 to 3 times higher death rate when HCQ use was temporarily stopped. http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/covid-19-hydroxychloroquine-works-irrefutable-proof

    The Dr. Zev Zelenko outpatient study, using the Zelenko protocol of low dose [400 mg/day?] HCQ + zinc + azithromycin (aka Z-pak) demonstrated an 80% reduction in bad outcomes. https://tinyurl.com/y68z2ahj

    In the U.S., in spite of the above and tens of millions of doses used over several decades with no serious side effects; and in spite of knowing that treatment should be started as soon as possible (after hospitalization is sometimes too late) this is what doctors and the public get from a government bureaucracy: https://tinyurl.com/y7jux6yu
    “FDA cautions against use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for COVID-19 outside of the hospital setting or a clinical trial due to risk of heart rhythm problems.”

    Why has HCQ been used in the U.S. in conditions where it should be expected to be ineffective?

    Meanwhile in the U.S. the FDA has granted an Emergency Use Authorization for the unapproved, expensive drug remdesivir which is “not yet known [to be] safe and effective for the treatment of COVID-19”. It has demonstrated a possible positive effect but the results are considered not statistically significant. (remdesivir, which costs about 60X as much as the HCQ ‘cocktail’) is a product (Vekulury) of Gilead Sciences, a company in which some U.S. officials might have financial or other interest) https://tinyurl.com/yxjzr4tf

    A plan to reduce covid-19 deaths in the U.S. has been made public https://corsination.com/national-plan-for-sars-cov-2-covid-19/

    A federal court filing for why government interference with hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) should end is presented at https://tinyurl.com/y6cmlzo9

    A covid-19 vaccine can be approved for general use even if it is only 50% effective in preventing the disease. https://tinyurl.com/yxuufu25

    Belgium study https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920303423

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    EternalOptimist

    Meanwhile, in the UK
    4 People died of Covid Yesterday

    Loads and loads are testing positive. Problem is, they are not dying, not going to ICU, not feeling sick and most of all
    …they dont know they have it until they are told.

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    Salome

    I’m Victorian and I’m sick of it. I was happy enough to go along with it first time round, but not only should this time round never have happened, but there is too much draconian silliness in the restrictions. Diktator Dan announced that after the end of this week, mowing contractors can go back to work. He said that banning them was an important part of restrictions last time. Really? Solo mowing contractors, whom nobody goes near because, well, they are mowing? It’s that level of pettiness. And now they’ve set unrealistic targets, particularly the no new infections in all of Victoria for 28 days one. There are two active cases in my suburb, 4 in the suburb next door, none in the rest of the surrounding suburbs, but of course he can’t keep the suburbs with lots of infections shut down while releasing the rest because they are in Labor electorates. There are ways of managing this–ask Gladys.

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      Gabriel Pentelie

      The Victorian people have spoken, “Salome”, and they (along with Jo Nova) have deemed such thoughts/sentiments as you are expressing as … UN-democratic!

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      RickWill

      It takes 4 weeks of severe lockdown to crush the virus. Victoria has shown that twice.

      The fiasco of the failure of hotel quarantine is unfolding as a daily soap opera as the incompetence of the Victorian public service is exposed.

      The issue that cannot be discussed openly because it is regarded as offensive is why the virus spread so rapidly. Any analysis of the first cases arriving at hospital in the second wave gives the clue. They were near universally of the m-faith or a close contact of someone with the m-faith. We know from the subdues messaging that Eid al-Fitr was the factor in the rapid community spread – thing filling the MCG for finals matches right now and I suspect that to be on a par with the level of Eid al-Fitr gatherings.

      If Eid al-Fitr was openly discussed it would make it clear that current restrictions, with the current level of unknown community spread, are UNWARRANTED. The present circumstances for all Victorians are being endured because it is unwoke to forensically analyse why the second wave rose with such ferocity. Melbourne has 100k of m-faith I figure a good number of those got together in May for Eid al-Fitr just in time to spread the virus from those infected at hotel quarantine.

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        Gabriel Pentelie

        Peru is currently sitting atop the COVID Deaths/Million table, having recently overtaken Belgium. Does Peru have, as you put it, an “m-faith” problem?

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          RickWill

          an “m-faith” problem?

          Victoria does not have an m-faith “problem”. Victoria has a problem with woke officials whot placed new Australians of low socio-economic circumstances in harms way; they happen to be of the m-faith who celebrated Eid al-Fitr just as the first lockdowns were being eased. The problem now is that it is unwoke to recognise that failure. It clashes with the ideal of placing diversity in employment ahead of competence. The security group that got the bulk of the money for hotel quarantine was a Sydney registered, majority aboriginal owned business. But they recruited preferentially from new Australians in Melbourne because diversity was the key selection criteria.

          Peru is awash with people in low socio-economic circumstances with minimum monthly salary of USD275. Australians are being paid a ‘survival’ monthly income od USD2500 to stay at home. The low socio-economic status in Peru is the likely major factor in the spread and death rate. People have to go out and work to survive. Australia can survive with about 20% of the population working out and about to meet essential needs. Many people are productive working from home. I doubt that is the case in Peru.

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        Salome

        Quarantine stuffup–Eid al Fitr–possible BLM? But BLM not a factor! Only protests against the restrictions (which seem to be organised and attended by loony fringers and bush lawyers–apologies to anyone here who’s been going to them) are a major risk, even in parts of the State where there are almost no infections, to the point that every strongarm tactic ever thought up by the Stasi, sorry police, gets used against them. Certainly, a petition to Allah to ask him to tell his devotees that large Eid parties were not a good idea would have been a good thing back then.

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      el gordo

      ‘ … he can’t keep the suburbs with lots of infections shut down while releasing the rest because they are in Labor electorates.’

      Guffaw.

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    Ross

    Funny Jo, you launch straight into your commentary with no mention of COVID in the heading or story. Just assume we know what your talking about!! Hope you weren’t talking about measles or another disease :-)

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      robert rosicka

      Last I looked we were in lockdown over Covid 19 but mainly because of the incompetence of a failed socialist dictatorship.
      The graphs used are clearly labeled as Covid .

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    RickWill

    Not quite on topic but worth a look:
    https://www.rebelnews.com/stand_with_avi_yemini

    Avi Yemini, the Chief Australian correspondent for Rebel News was suddenly tackled to the ground and ARRESTED while covering the ant-lockdown protest in Melbourne.

    We demand an end to the Victorian Police state that detains JOURNALISTS for doing their job.

    Without freedom of the press, we don’t have a democracy.

    I figure his facial hair makes him a target but he has now been seriously targeted by the police as in ‘inciter’. I expect he would have good cause to at least get a public apology and maybe compensation in civil court.

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      Serp

      He’s an amusing fellow, gives good shtick, from a very large family including his brother Manny Waks who was suing him four years ago.

      It’s disappointing in this phishing age to see him soliciting email addresses and mobile phone numbers to support some spurious petition; we all have our foibles eh.

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    DonS

    Hi Jo

    I’m a bit slow so can you explain to me what the graph of Unknown Transmission Cases in Victoria represents. I mean is it a running total count or a daily count of new unknowns? At one point it spikes at about 250 then a few days later it is below 50. Do we really think that the proven incompetents in the Vic health system can solve the contact mystery of 200 cases in a few days? I doubt it. Given that they are still taking 5 days to get test results back I wouldn’t trust too many of the numbers being put out by a government that allows no outside scrutiny of what it is up to.

    Could you also give a reason why a disease that we a told requires a 2 week quarantine period has taken what, 6 weeks of lockdown, to get back under control. I suspect from what I’ve seen that lockdowns are most effective in the early stages of the pandemic but once the virus is spreading in the community it is much harder to contain with a lockdown. Italy, Spain, New York etc. all I think took too long to start their initial lockdown and so it didn’t prove as effective as it was here and in NZ where we had enough time to lockdown before it really arrived.

    You also mention that the coming of summer might see a fall off in new cases. I would have thought that too except the pattern in the USA does not appear to follow that thinking. In winter in the north when people were huddled together indoors from the cold the virus ran amok while the sunbelt states of the south the case rates remained low. Come summer the cases dropped off in the north as people got out in the sun more but in the south cases took off as people spent more time indoors sheltering from the heat.

    Who knows but if the fragile power grid in the eastern Australian states collapses this summer then people will be forced out of their airconditioned homes. Maybe renewable energy will save lives, only not in the way the climate kooks thought :)

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      RickWill

      The Victorian Stage 4 lockdown gives very clear indication of how effective they are in crushing the virus.
      http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=Australia&show=-10&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=left#countries
      Stage 4 commenced on 2 August when 7 day moving average was 483cases/day. The 7 day average peaked 3 days later at 553cases/day. In just 4 weeks, the 7 day average of cases was down to 82cases/day – impressive rate of reduction to a controllable number.

      It demonstrates how easy it is to defeat the infection. On the other hand any large gathering can let the virus out just as effectively. The Eid al-Fitr gatherings in May were not widely known but were equivalent to filling the MCG with a finals crowd at the present level of community infection. The virus would be controlled before the event but not after it.

      There are only a few places around the globe that are permitting crowds at sporting events. Those places have crushed the virus to daily cases at single digit.

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      DonS, fair questions.

      1. The graph is daily new cases of unknown source. It is not cumulative, and when a source is discovered three days later, the tally has a negative count to show that it is not now “unknown”.

      2. While 99.9% of cases have an incubation of 14 days, because Victorians do not live in solitary confinement they can still infect others they live with or work with or see at the shops.

      Hence one person with an asymptomatic infection can go home, after 4 days be shedding virus, and then infect a child who takes 8 days to shed virus, which survived on a benchtop for a week before it infected their mom who then takes 3 days to shed viruses, and gets stick 2 days later, and tested the day after that. But she went shopping before getting symptoms and infected one unknown person at the local shops. etc etc .

      Does that help explain why it takes at least two rounds of the 14 day quarantine with no community spread to declare a region “Free” of the virus?

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        DonS, Airconditioning appears to negate summer heat very well. Cool dry air helps the virus thus in summer we end up in the situation where outdoor events are probably very safe in humid heat, but indoor dry air at 22C and crowded rooms are ideal for spreading it.

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        DonS

        Thanks Jo

        Does it explain it? Well yes and no. As I understood it this virus does most of its shedding in the early days after exposure, less than 4 days? Kids have some resistance so the 8 days before shedding seems about right. Can this virus even survive 5 days on a benchtop? I suppose it depends on the conditions but I would have thought that a mother would have caught it from her child long before 5 days anyway. Again I suppose that depends on what sort of mother she is, one who doesn’t regularly wipe down benchtops or have close physical contact with her kids, I suppose they exist.

        Overall, considering all the variables, your explanation is reasonable. However how long should Victoria be in lockdown? Until there is less than 50 new cases, 20, 5 per day? I think the question people are asking now is when does the remedy become worse than the problem? How long can you keep 7 million people under these restrictions? 1 month, 6 months, 1 year? I see the Oxford vaccine trail has been suspended so until a vaccine arrives is not the answer.

        Thanks again Jo for the info, you always give me things to think about.

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    Lockdown Loner

    Here’s an interesting TED talk on the decontamination effects of UV-C light on bacteria and viruses. It specifically identifies meat packing as a use case. Far UVC light to be specific. I wonder if a few well placed light globes might not be the answer we all need. https://youtu.be/YATYsgi3e5A

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    cedarhill

    Anyone know which viral pattern Australia or which part falls into the viral patterns?

    See Ivor Cummins latest factual update complete with Northern European latitude pattern and the warmer/desert pattern. The graphs, for each pattern, by nation are remarkably identical.

    Oh,and he covers all the big ones: excess deaths, viral history, spikes, second waves, the uselessness of masks, distancing, quarantines, the casedemic created by PCR testing, etc. With comparison to 2018 meaning 2020 is not really that much different other than, imho, will likely be the greatest hysteria propagated.

    More important for going forward is the actions taken (masking, seperation, lockdowns, et al, for the northern pattern folks) will likly make even the flu worse for the upcoming cycle.

    Ivor’s report should be must watch for everyone on the planet.

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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2255&v=8UvFhIFzaac&feature=emb_title

    [Staal, this was caught by the spam filter probably because you only have a link. Please include some description of what the link is about when you make your comment.] ED

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    Yonason

    Oh, yes. Let’s all give a rousing cheer for New Zealand. //s//
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/08/new-zealand-story-first-take-guns-set-mandatory-coronavirus-quarantine-camps/

    I wonder if they are tired of “winning” yet?

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