JoNova

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A quarter of UK drivers won’t even buy an Electric car “in their lifetimes”

The UK parliament has decided to phase out fossil fueled cars entirely by 2040 or even 2035,  but right now only 4% of the UK public are even planning to buy an EV, which makes it a very forced transition.  Forty four percent say they won’t even be ready in fifteen years time, and a quarter effectively say “over my dead body”.

Half of Britons say a 2035 deadline to switch to an electric car is too soon!

Rob Hull and Grace Gausden, ThisIsMoney.co.uk

But despite the growing availability and wider selection of motors to choose from, a survey commissioned by the SMMT found that almost half of drivers are not only unprepared to make a transition to zero-emission motoring now but don’t think they will be in 2035 – five years ahead of the existing deadline for the sale of new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars to be banished.

A quarter (24 per cent) of the 2,185 drivers interviewed claimed they don’t foresee themselves ever buying an electric car in their lifetimes, despite the impeding ban in 2040.

96% say they are not even thinking of buying one at the moment

Hardly anyone wants to buy an Electric Car in the UK

Peter Campbell Financial Times

The number of people in the UK planning to purchase an electric vehicle has collapsed as the pandemic squeezed finances for potential car buyers, according to a leading online automotive portal. A survey by Auto Trader of 2,300 consumers in January found 16 per cent were planning to buy a battery-only car. But in an August survey of 2,700 people, just 4 per cent were considering a pure electric car.

The two big reasons cited are the lack of charging points and the cost — even though the government effectively does a  £3,000 cashback deal to help sell them.

Government subsidies for electric cars were cut in March from £3,500 to £3,000, although the benefit does not apply for used vehicles.

In tight pandemic times, EV’s are so unpopular people don’t even want a second hand EV. The average selling prices for second hand EV’s fell 5% in August.

Since the tiny number of electric vehicles we have in Australia are already causing the odd blackout, UK Grid managers must be slightly relieved. The UK Minister for the Environment, not so much.

h/t GWPF

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Rating: 9.7/10 (59 votes cast)
A quarter of UK drivers won't even buy an Electric car "in their lifetimes", 9.7 out of 10 based on 59 ratings

124 comments to A quarter of UK drivers won’t even buy an Electric car “in their lifetimes”

  • #
    Jojodogfacedboy

    I have seen how Telsa computerized their car and needs periodically to download which makes it a slave to the manufacturer as well.
    I am impressed with the electric scooters and the amount of torque it has. It also has liquid batteries which is far better recharging when leaving it outside in the winter.
    Cold Canada has electric car slots all over already as our government forces us over to them. Plastic doesn’t do well in the cold.

    100

  • #

    Here in the UK we have a very good fuel charging infrastructure with numerous petrol stations. There is a huge range of ever more economical new cats plus a vast selection of second hand cars at all price points.

    As far as ev goes there are few charging points. More to the point Evs are far more expensive than a petrol equivalent with even the most modest vehicle costing 25000 pounds. For Evs to work for a family they must be capable of being used as a first car, not a second one.

    They must give a good range loaded with a family of four plus their luggage, be able to provide air con on warm days or heating on cold ones. They must be able to provide lights, windscreen wipers, radio, and all the other electrical gadgets.. They must be capable of going on long journeys and they must be able to be recharged not just en route somewhere but in a home environment

    Some half of all UK homes do not have their own driveways so park on the street making charging impossible. So they must be able to be charged at work but you are discouraged from parking at your work.

    So a whole range of elements some big some small need to be overcome of which the purchase price is a big one

    290

    • #
      Jojodogfacedboy

      In Canada, the city streets you can’t park overnight in the winter due to plows and snow and deep snow banks…
      And our government is all in on electric vehicles. The big cities love to buy the latest technology as well and the tax payers have unlimited funds for the constant tax increases…
      So sad how this is forced on us.

      130

    • #
      Dennis

      In Australia about half the price of liquid fossil fuels is government road maintenance fuel tax and there are already plans to charge EV drivers a similar road tax to maintain tax revenue as/if EV replaces the ICEV fleet.

      In NSW all EV registered must soon or now have a blue EV sticker on the front and rear number plates, interstate EV as well when visiting NSW. All “dual fuel” vehicles equipped with Liquid Petroleum Gas must have red stickers warning LPG on board. These warning stickers are to alert road accident or other reason for checking vehicles road crews that special handling is required in the event of a fire.

      90

    • #
      Russell

      Never mind charging EVs at work. Most side streets of Greater London are paved with parked cars that never seem to move. They are likely only used at weekends and “very occasionally”. How will these cars be charged? Long extension leads won’t work ‘coz you have to park a fair distance from your house. This 2035 plan implies massive installation of charging points in every Greater London street on a scale that is totally unachievable and will add significant economic costs to the case for EVs. It’s not going to happen. Tell ‘em they are dreaming …

      200

    • #
      Speedy

      Good points. A pity that the academics and the politicians don’t think about us “little people”. Perhaps those without a driveway and/or an executive car park at work don’t matter?
      Sheers,

      Speedy

      80

    • #
      Davidsb

      Here in the UK we have a very good fuel charging infrastructure with numerous petrol stations.

      And how much did the UK taxpayer have to chip in to fund this widespread and efficient ‘fuel charging infrastructure’?

      Approximately £nil.

      So why should we be expected to fund the installation of a network of electric charging points?

      61

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    A quarter of households in the UK do not currently own a car. Sort of skews the statistics doesn’t it

    126

  • #
    BoyfromTottenham

    Tony’s – in a green utopia all these problems will be solved. You know, unicorns and stuff. In the real world, things are a lot more difficult. Perhaps that is why gullible people vote green – it saves them having to think. I guess that goes for them thinking about the consequences, like the loss of forests in Estonia.

    140

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    Virtually all of us have a device that we can carry around. It’s a phone, and a data store,
    and a camera, and a movie camera, and a gaming platform, and a plausible computer for some of us, at a
    more or less reasonable price point. We bought it because we wanted it. We wanted it mostly because it worked
    really really well and was really really useful.

    Most of us have a car or motorbike. There is as much, or more variety in these vehicles than in the phones but they are
    the same deal in that they are useful at a good price point, work really really well and are really really useful. I am reminded just
    how well these darn ICU vehicles work every time I go to the airport and perform a meticulous and detailed preflight on my little antique aircraft;
    my car is a get-in-and-go and I actually know folks who trade every couple of years who literally never do anything but put in gas and clean the windscreen.

    But perhaps we should be more appreciative that the IC engineers have performed miracles; there is a lot to like in an electric car.
    Low parts count, internal space and drive train arrangement flexibility, etc. In many ways its a shame that batteries suck so bad, and we have
    a recharge cycle so much more difficult that the refueling cycle.

    I really wish government weren’t screwing thing up, cause the future would be more interesting if we let the market drive growth. Almost Every job site in the
    US has power, yet you will now see tradesmen using mostly rechargable power tools, swapping batteries several times a day, often to a portable charger plugged in on site.
    The tool and the batteries cost several times more than the Plug-in version, and the battery sets need replacement every so often, but the rechargable tools have
    gained market share, so the value must be there as people who make a living with their tools are voting with their pocketbooks.

    To get acceptable play rates, almost every golf course now forces cart use; electric and gasoline are both available, and electric dominates.

    If there is a market for electric cars, and there probably is, the geniuses that create new businesses will find it. The folks who have brought us rolling blackouts? not so much.

    180

    • #
      PeterS

      Spot on. I too see lots of good points about electric cars but as you say it’s major drawback is the charging cycle. I have no doubt that one day that will be solved, most likely by way of a totally different type of battery or other power source. In the meantime, governments should just keep out of it and stop pretending they can expedite technological advancements by statutes and laws, when in actual fact all they are doing is kowtowing to the left to save the world from some mythical CAGW and at the same time ruin our economy. One would have thought under normal circumstances such acts would be considered to be those of terr0rists, but then again these are not normal circumstances. For some reason (I can point to a couple) we as a nation have decided to follow the Greens Agenda by convincing ourselves we are not when we vote for the LNP. Stupid is as stupid does.

      100

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Gonna be hard to drive away from your burning neighbourhood if you need to charge your EV and the power has been turned off …

    California’s Rolling Blackouts Cast Further Doubt on Electric Vehicles’ Future
    https://cei.org/blog/california’s-rolling-blackouts-cast-further-doubt-electric-vehicles’-future

    h/t: @junkscience

    190

    • #
      Spetzer86

      It’s when the city has decided to use your car’s battery to power the neighbor’s tea pot that it’ll get really harsh.

      40

  • #
    David Maddison

    In Australia, remember when Turnbull donated $100 million of taxpayer money to Macquarie Leasing in order to assist the procurement of electric cars? How’d that turn out?

    …Liberal Party’s energy minister Josh Frydenberg announced $100 million for Macquarie Leasing to provide buyers with discounted financing to improve the take-up of electric cars.
    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezview/turnbulls-loselose-electric-car-farce/news-story/02d463990cfc6c4cbf8657c44349fd23

    131

    • #
      Dennis

      I understand that the $100 million for Macquarie Leasing was from a $300 million fund set aside for promotion of EV to fleet operators.

      What happened to free market capitalism?

      80

  • #
    Peter C

    the tiny number of electric vehicles we have in Australia are already causing the odd blackout,

    The story was apparently published by Robert Gottleibsen (2019) in the Australian. I think the authenticity may be doubtful. Does anyone have better information?

    00

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Jo has done a story on EV’s causing a blackout but can’t remember exactly when , think it was a Sydney suburb from memory .

      20

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      Jo’s post was April 10, 2019, as I discovered in following her link above:
      ” already causing the odd blackout, UK… ”
      Cheers
      Dave B

      30

      • #
        Peter C

        True, Jo did post about the Robert Gottleibsen article in April 2019. However the veracity of Robert Gottleibsen’s story is in doubt.
        An acquaintance told hem about a group of wealthy Tesla owners who all lived in the same street. If all six tried to recharge at the same time using their high charge rate chargers they would black out the street.

        But no one knows who or where. Did it really happen?

        00

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    The coomon theme here is removal of the publucs choice.

    Did we the public believe in the lie if CAGW? No.

    But the globalists-who-know-better-than-us did, and now govts obediently follow orders….

    Did we agree to lockdowns based on a virus thats 94% not a problem and the Vic CMO says “no leaving house arrest until a vaccine”?

    Do you see a theme here?

    I noticed a change.org petition to sack Fearless Leader in Vic had 45K signatures as of last night….

    80

    • #
      Dennis

      Sky News last night revealed that the VicGov CMO when questioned yesterday admitted that he had not called for a lockdown, it appears that was a Premier decision requested by VicPol to make it easier for them to monitor people.

      And on top of the failed hotel quarantine security basis for the virus outbreak it was reported that VicHealth has an antiquated manual tracing system of Fax and paper in place since the now State Premier was the State Minister for Health. Following discussions between the Federal and VicState governments VicHealth officials are being sent to NSWHeath to study the claimed to be best tracing system of all in Australia. The Premier, when asked about this, casually dismissed the importance and told journalists that the visiting officials might pick something worthwhile up from NSW.

      Speaking to a country person from Victoria yesterday I gained the impression that fed up is a far too polite way to describe the growing anger.

      120

      • #
        RickWill

        Brett Sutton supported the Stage 4 lockdowns. He had nothing to do with the curfew. The curfew was aimed at easing the work demand of the police.

        I think the pen, paper and Fax comment in a radio interview has resulted in Sutton being told he must get a spin doctor, at price tag of $200kpa, to teach him how to avoid telling the truth.

        One ALP insider, Stephen Conroy, has condemned Sutton for throwing their beloved leader under the bus during his frank admissions.

        The bloke needs more than a media advisor – he is a clown.

        Woke and honesty are incompatible.

        60

    • #
      PeterS

      Do you notice the pattern though? We as a nation keep giving one of the two major parties majority rule. Recall one of the definitions of insanity; keep doing the same thing expecting a different result.

      80

      • #
        Chad

        All #9 is off topic !
        Why, ? There is a current “Open” thread running.
        This is just lazy or deliberate “grandstanding” !

        13

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Its related, if you read it properly….

          It diverges slightly, but the theme is there.

          30

          • #
            Chad

            OS..
            Your post was initially tenuously related at best ,..but you then decided to link back to the Lockdowns etc….WHY ?
            Intentional or not, ? ,,you oped the door for the replys to slide back to a full COVID infection of the thread.

            23

  • #
    Ross

    Has the UK worked out where it is going to get all the extra electricity required to run these EVs , or is that just a pesky minor detail??

    110

    • #
      PeterS

      Let them learn the hard way. Imagine how angry people will get when they won’t be able to charge their phones let alone their cars.

      60

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      It’s the pumpkin strategy.
      The fairy godmother provides the magic coach as transport but it turns into a pumpkin when needed.

      40

      • #
        Hasbeen

        It is just not ICE cars they want to ban, the whole point is to get us peasant out of cars entirely.

        Last year a joint committee [that is an all party committee], of the UK parliament discussing climate change issued a statement of their findings. Hidden away in the middle was the statement that “the private ownership of road vehicles is not compatible with decarbonisation of the economy”.

        There was no dissenting communique, so all parties agreed with this statement carefully hidden away in the pile of mumbo jumbo, & there was no exception of hybrid or electric vehicles. The long term objective is to get us out of any cars.

        Pushbikes anyone? I wonder if they will be allowed to be electric assist?

        120

    • #
      tonyb

      Ross

      Don’t be negative. It will just happen. If the powers that be close their eyes, link hands and wish hard enough the Electricity generation will double in size as the wind continually blows and the sun continually shines, even during the night.

      60

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        No, no Ross;

        They will illuminate the solar panels with floodlights which will ensure continuous electricity. Where will the electricity to run the floodlights come from? Why from the solar panels.**

        ** for the benefit of those who think this is possible /sarc off.

        30

        • #
          ivan

          Ah, the Spanish PV system of getting a solar subsidy at night.

          Maybe if the wackademics that ‘advise’ the government actually got out of their ivory towers and looked at the realworld things might be different – then again it might not because the ‘green’ civil servants are the ones running the country.

          30

  • #
    Dennis

    EV range is always quoted as manufacturer’s theoretical range and ignores that the on board battery management system stops discharge once down to 10 per cent of battery capacity, and that regular recharging to greater than 80 per cent is not recommended, therefore 30 per cent of theoretical new battery capacity is not available for general use.

    And then consider variable factors such as air conditioning and other accessories on or off, people and luggage weight on board, hills, for EV higher energy use at highway speeds, headwinds, etc. Of course for suburban driving only regenerative braking tops up the batterie and therefore EV is really a town vehicle.

    Add a trailer, for example a caravan or large boat and trailer, and whatever the potential range might be for the EV without the trailer is down by around 50 per cent.

    And savings in running costs, consider battery replacement or trade in value discounted by battery condition and the much higher price for EV compared to an equivalent ICEV. The difference would pay for a lot of liquid fuel and vehicle maintenance costs before any running cost saving was achieved.

    170

    • #
      Peter C

      Thanks Dennis,

      Useful considerations for anyone who actually thinking a buying an electric car.

      60

      • #
        Dennis

        Peter I read a story written by an EV enthusiast who drove a Tesla 3 around Australia using National Highway 1, and after experimenting to discover the speed that provided the best average range from each recharge of batteries drove at just above 80 kilometres per hour.

        I have driven and continue to drive long distances touring mostly these days, averaging 50,000 kilometres a year travelling since 2013, and I am well aware of the “Road Trains” heavy vehicle transport and what the drivers have to say on radio when they encounter a slowly moving vehicle, especially towing caravans. To overtake while driving a very long heavy transport vehicle is difficult and slowing down reduces distance travelled between required rest breaks. Imagine if most smaller vehicles were EV “snails”.

        And then consider an EV heavy transporter prime mover and the weight of battery pack reducing freight payload and revenue, the hours of recharging required, battery heat problems on the many very hot days and the variable fluctuation of range.

        140

    • #
      Chad

      Range is always a huge variable, depending on many factors.
      The range manufacturers quote is fron an agreed Euro Test Cycle….basically a steady run.
      In the extreme with a heavy foot, even a full 100kWh (Tesla) battery wont last long if the driver is using 3-500kW of the cars potential………15-20 mins ?
      How far can a car go in 20 mins ..(50 miles ?)
      Jerry Clarkson had it right , back in 2012 with his EV track test.!
      No current EV can be justified financially.
      On a like for like family car basis, an EV is double the price of its equivalent ICE.
      (Hyundai Kona Elite, EV, $60k,…Petrol , $30k )
      Over a 100,000km (5yr) ownership period you cannot recover that $30k…or even half of it )
      Even to recover half the cost difference , you would have to “save” $15 per 100km ..which is difficult when the ICE version only uses $10 /100km of fuel.

      90

    • #
      RickWill

      Temperature is a big factor with range. Teslas have devised clever ways to retain heat or vent heat from battery packs to achieve acceptable cold weather range. However what is regarded as ‘acceptable’ by some is not acceptable to the people who buy Teslas.

      The range is given for 75F. A Tesla operating at that temperature was found to have a range of 239 miles. When the temperature increased to 95F to 229m without air-conditioning. Using air-conditioner reduces it to 198m. At freezing temperature of 20F with the heater on the range was 91m.

      This provides a little more insight into aspects of owning a Tesla:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2gmphV8IZQ

      40

  • #
    Carguy Pete

    So what happens to the grid when all those electric cars need to be charged? Hopefully they will be set to charge at off peak times causing there to never be an off peak.
    Like in Australia when all the electric water heaters all turn on at 11:00 pm, the demand on the grid goes dramatically up when solar is offline.

    61

    • #
      RickWill

      Like in Australia when all the electric water heaters all turn on at 11:00 pm, the demand on the grid goes dramatically up when solar is offline.

      I believe South Australia is the only state that has not moved into the 20th century with ripple control relays, available last century, or other forms of load control available in the 21st century. Queensland was using ripple control in the 1960s on hot water. Ripple control allows the time of the demand to be selected and there is local group control so the load does not need to hit all at once.

      Anyone with rooftop solar would be not taking full advantage of their solar system if they had not set their electric hot water to operate during the middle of the day. At this time of year, rooftop solar in SA is producing more electricity than all the other sources of generation. Wind and grid scale solar are being curtailed around 9am each day as the wholesale price goes negative.

      In Australia it would be best to charge electric cars through the middle of the day when rooftop solar is cranking. Unfortunately that would require employers to set up charging points, which is unlikely to happen unless you work for an electric car manufacturer or dealer. Lunchtime charging at roadhouse would also make sense.

      11

      • #
        Chad

        rooftop solar in SA is producing more electricity than all the other sources of generation. Wind and grid scale solar are being curtailed around 9am each day as the wholesale price goes negative

        Sorry Rick, but that is just not true.
        RT Solar in SA never produces much more than 500 MW peak, whilst wind frequently exceeds 1300 MW, and Gas often 1500+ MW at any time the other RE sources fail.
        A quick glance at the NEM data shows the situation..
        http://nemlog.com.au/gen/region/#SA1

        40

        • #
          RickWill

          A quick glance at the NEM data shows the situation..

          The Nemlog chart actually proves my point. From 10am to 2pm, the rooftop is off the chart, meaning rooftop solar was ,more than 100% of the grid scale generation during that period. Wholesale price in SA went negative at 9am and remained negative until the wind and grid scale solar were backed off sufficiently and the Victorian transfer cranked up. Price remained negative to 3pm.

          01

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Chad:

          How do you measure RT solar? Its output merely reduced demand on the grid. There is a minimum of conventional generation (by AEMO regulation to try and stabilise the grid) and wind takes up the remainder (plus any capacity on the interconnector to Vic). For all that wind ‘farms’ in SA ARE Being restricted (by rolling shutdowns) as their Capacity Factor has dropped from just over 30% to 27%.
          To me this seems to indicate that solar supplies more than you think at times.

          20

        • #
          Chad

          ? Wow, what happened there ?
          This is how it should read..

          At this time of year rooftop solar in SA is producing more electricity than all the other sources of generation. Wind and grid scale solar are being curtailed around 9am each day as the wholesale price goes negative

          Sorry Rick, but that is just not true.
          RT Solar in SA never produces much more than 500 MW peak, whilst wind frequently exceeds 1300 MW, and Gas often 1500+ MW at any time the other RE sources fail.
          A quick glance at the NEM data shows the situation..
          http://nemlog.com.au/gen/region/#SA1

          10

          • #
            RickWill

            Go to your Nemlog link. The yellow line (the line not the yellow fill) is the rooftop output. It goes off the chart at 10am till 2pm, meaning it is producing more than all the other generation combined. The wind and grid solar are both being voluntarily curtailed to avoid taking the negative price. The gas is ordered to run for stability reasons and they will be compensated for the negative price.

            Rooftop is taking over the supply from other generators for 4 hours a day in good sunlight and it will continue to take more of the day until around late November when the air-conditioning demand goes up. The same thing is evident in Queensland but the rooftop in Queensland is not as significant as the rooftop in SA because SA has such a small industrial demand.

            It is known as the “duck” curve because demand from grid scale generatiors dips severely during lunchtime.

            11

          • #
            RickWill

            Today, 9 Sept, rooftop solar exceed all other sources of generation in South Australia from 10am till 2pm. Solar output peaked at 965MW at 12:45 while grid scale generation was 602MW.

            It is quite common in SA that rooftop PV output exceeds the output of all other generators combined on a daily basis because none of the grid scale generators in SA are prepared to take negative prices and there is no easy way to limit the output of the rooftop solar.

            This is an emerging problem for AEMO and they have a desperate need to control the output of rooftop solar.

            11

  • #
    Carguy Pete

    [Duplicate]

    01

  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    Electric Cars rammed down their throats . .
    Likewise gas stoves are forced out to be replaced by wind powered electricity. And heaps more politically motivated laws and regulations that are making daily life in the UK more expensive and more difficult. All to please the green left politic of climate change.
    When Brits finally wake up to this nonsense it will be too late.
    GeoffW

    170

  • #
    Serge Wright

    The UK electric vehicle and national energy policy is a perfect example of when left wing ideology overrides science and engineering. On one hand they are greatly reducing the amount of available electricity generation within the system, dramatically increasing the cost, and also making the generation far more unreliable. On the other hand they are introducing a policy that will double electricity consumption and create a total economic dependency on the unreliable electricity.

    We all know this can only end very badly.

    130

  • #
    Jonesy

    Electric motors as traction engines are the gun! The problem lies in electron delivery. @2.8ev per cell regardless of liquid or paste or rare earth limits size and weight of batteries. Best bet is fuel cells but if you go for fuel cell, why not just burn it in an ICE and be done with it….just that electric motors deliever extraordinary torque!

    As for evidence of the problem of charging electric cars? Ask Eddie McGuire…he has three neighbours with electric cars..if two of them hook their cars up to their houses, it trips out the power to the entire street. If electricity was cheap and batteries had range better than 500km at full highway speed and took less than ten minutes to charge and…

    90

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I’m always impressed with diesel-electric locos.

      I guess you could have diesel-electric genset cars with battery buffers, perfect for hauling boats and freight, but water continues to be a problem when near electric motors. Maybe they could put the motors up higher, but gearboxes and toque could be problematic.

      Once a toyota landy can be fitted with electric motors and can cross a 4′ deep river i’ll believe its possible

      51

      • #
        Chad

        OS..
        Those loco’s are just diesels with “Elecfrical Transmissions”, instead of gearbox’s and clutch, to reduce maintenance and increase efficiency.
        If they had a battery in series with the Etransmission, they would be Series Hybrids. But they cannot run without the diesel operating.
        Most big mining trucks work that way also.
        I dont think you would want that landy EV to cross the river……there are no charge stations Outback .!

        60

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Its more the water-electricity mix that isnt going to work….

          I think maybe for urban spaces, an EV might have practical use for short hops and keeping pollution down in congested cities, but for rural and regional use, fossil fuels are way more practical and more rugged too I think.

          10

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            Hybrid. Friend has a Mitsubishi Outlander, 50 km on battery, then petrol. IC motor starts up if extra power is required or battery needs recharge. It helps as the employer pays for re-charging during the day (needless to say a government establishment).

            10

  • #
    Mike Smith

    “If we replace all of the UK vehicle fleet with EVs, and assuming they use the most resource-frugal next-generation batteries, we would need the following materials:
    * 207,900 tonnes of cobalt – just under twice the annual global production;
    * 264,600 tonnes of lithium carbonate – three quarters of the world’s production;
    * at least 7,200 tonnes of neodymium and dysprosium –nearly the entire world production of neodymium;
    * 2,362,500 tonnes of copper – more than half the world’s production in 2018.”

    https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2020/05/KellyDecarb-1.pdf

    110

    • #
      RickWill

      One message that can be taken from that list is to get in early. The stuff will be in short supply real quick and prices will lift vertically.

      It appears electric scooters are the vehicle of choice in Paris, France. They seem to be a reliable means of getting about and are possibly faster than walking; mush faster than a car stuck in traffic.

      40

  • #

    This is all complete idiocy, and typical Green “cart before the horse” thinking. And its from a so called Conservative Govt. Boris J has been a complete failure in this area

    I personally love my petrol car as do legions of others. It can go virtually anywhere and if it runs out of fuel it can easily be refilled via jerry can. An EV needs to be towed. A couple of times like that and people will not be happy at all.

    The batteries fail and resale value is shocking.

    They have only limited use and as mentioned above charging issues are a nightmare. And the whole environment issue, as all here know, is a complete con and no reason to adopt EVs.

    What is not to hate about EVs…

    160

  • #
    Speedy

    Morning all

    Those of us in the mining game will watch with bemusement how our corporate masters are falling for the EV story hook, line and sinker. We have “promotors” such as Elan Musk telling us that there will be gigantic windfalls for those who jump on the EV bandwagon (pardon the mixed metaphor) and – low and behold, they did what he wanted! Now we have a glut of lithium and graphite, and the corporate gurus are now queuing up to over-supply the nickel and cobalt (sulphate) battery components as well! It beggars belief – supposedly smart business leaders adding complexity, risk and capital to their projects, not to mention operating and logistical costs, to ensure that future end-users get to pick and choose who they buy from and for how much! That is, assuming the end-users ever eventuate!

    BHP, to their shame, have fallen for it as well. They deserve to be known as “The Dumb Australian”.

    Cheers,

    Speedy

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      BHP is now a woke company with stupid pronoucements on carbon neutral etc.

      One thing the woke don’t understand is how to run a company.

      I have no BHP shares and would advise people to steer clear of them. Or any woke company for that matter. One other I have lots of dealings with who I won’t mention due to confidentiality reasons, has a share price which has collapsed long term, yet more energy goes into the woke emails that flood my inbox than actual work. Go woke go broke as they say!

      Of course, Peter Fitz will now parrot on about Tesla (TSLA stock ticker). Its share price chart looks exactly like those in the dot com era (I suspect most here actually remember that time). When Sausage Software, Alta Vista and a host of other nothings shot to the moon, and then collapsed, never to be heard of again. TSLA actually produces something, but there is actually more production of hot air from Elon Musk than car production, which always misses its targets. I would not be betting on this long term…

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        Dennis

        Around lat 1980s a Labor Government in Canberra introduced the employer paid Superannuation Guarantee Levy for employees, a superannuation scheme account for each employee provided by each employer. At the time many business people warned that the system would not result in most employees avoiding the age pension, the best might have a part pension for a few years. But the main concern was the influence gained by the Union Movement with access and influence at public company board level based on union superannuation fund businesses investing members’ monies in shares.

        Since then public companies have gradually been manoeuvred into what we refer to as “woke”, and the younger the executives are the more woke decision making there is. Those people are graduates from the post Whitlam Labor years state public schools and federally funded universities and the leftism they teach students.

        But another influence on boards are selective shareholders buying shares for influence purposes, they make demands and can create the impression that a majority of shareholders oppose activities such as mining and support investment into so called renewables, etc. On another level of influencers are small lobby groups that operate multiple email accounts per member (example Mad F*cking Women – yes, that’s what they call their group) who bombard media businesses (one example) advertising customer businesses demanding withdrawal of advertising attempting to starve the businesses of revenue and then pressure them to get rid of people the lobbyists don’t like, typically presenters they perceive as being “the enemy”, not leftists in other words. I understand that Sky News is one of the media companies targeted.

        So the propaganda war is influencing outcomes and even causing those woke executive decision makers to recommend divestment of business interests like coal mining, and then base their propaganda to us claiming companies like BHP are getting out of coal because coal is bad according to the influencers-propaganda sources.

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    Mal

    Everyone is focussing on operating costs and recharging issues
    However ev make no sense environmentally when you look at managing batteries from manufacture to disposal
    The only area that evs make any sense is inner city of inner urban areas where there is some tail pipe pollution from ice vehicles
    In Australia they make no sense in regional areas cost wise or environmentally

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      Chad

      The only area that evs make any sense is inner city of inner urban areas

      …and even in those areas, transport should be, and is increasingly….only public mass transport.
      Bus’s , tram/train/metro, and EV Taxi’s.
      Bicycles also sesible.

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    Rod King

    There is never any talk about the big problem of lithium batteries and fire.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2F9HKZ5VzA

    What happens in a multi electric car accident on a crowded freeway?

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    TdeF

    The role of the motor car is changing with this virus. It’s hard to see how in the long term but a lot of people have expensive money eating devices in the driveway or garage. Doing nothing. And the battery goes flat.

    Then the alternative, public transport, is a real health risk, as it always was but now it is very clear. And even the workplace may change. I would expect that most people will spend half their week at home instead of the office and the internet makes that possible. And who wants to work in a virus centre?

    Even the endless inner city residential towers will be at risk. We may end up with vertical ghettos as they are abandoned and unsaleable, Detroit in the sky. It will make rioting difficult though.

    And all that business flying? It died after 9/11. It has died world wide now. Tens of thousands of jets idled. Will they ever be all needed? No. In fact the biggest are being phased out, junked.

    So the issue of whether your car is 5% electric, 20% electric or 100% electric is far less important right now and in the near future than how do you get around, where do you work and whether you really want to pay all those taxes, even on roads you own.

    When you consider that after your house, it is the most expensive thing you own, this is a big question. And the time you spend in a car or plane and whether you get any value. And crowded roads and the appalling commute times.

    Perhaps the least important question is whether you want to spend twice as much to not have a petrol engine and pay much more to go anywhere? And two cars?

    Car sales are going to collapse. And all electric cars are just silly, a rich man’s toy. Someone who really does not have to go anywhere. So pick your favorite rich suburb and it will be stuffed with the things.

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      TdeF

      If people were serious about reducing waste, they would adopt the US system of busing children to school. Some schools in Melbourne have it. I would suggest half the traffic in the morning is a 2 1/2 tonne 4WD with mum and the kids doing the 1 1/2 hour dropoff. Then in the evenings. The cost to the country is extraordinary. You will notice it on school holidays, the roads are empty.

      How much is that costing us? The issue of 100% electric cars is so irrelevant to solving any real problem. What has been really good however is the electric bicycle, especially in hilly suburbs. Ask your postie. And the hybrid car. Ask anyone who has one. 1,000km on a small tank? And you can run full electric if necessary. I just love it recharging when the brakes go on or down hill. It is really something for nothing, like skiing or surfing.

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        TdeF

        A full sized Toyota Camry Hybrid family car is about $42,000. 5 litres/100km even in the city! Quite incredible. With 50 litres, a range of 1,000km. And it charges itself. So you can even run out of petrol and find a petrol station, maybe 10-50km away. That’s the opposite of range anxiety.

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          TdeF

          My question is why you would buy an electric car if you can buy a hybrid at 1/2 to 1/4 of the cost? There is no CO2 argument. You generate more in a full electric car.

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          Chad

          You do know the Camry Hybrid was first built in Australia ?
          One of the many great losses that crap Political leadership has given us !

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        Graeme No.3

        TdeF:

        I’m in a hilly town, but the postie uses a motorbike (actually a scooter). The electric bike mob all use recumbent bicycles and travel up my road in a pack, slowing any traffic to a crawl And the school buses have been running since …well I know someone who has just turned 60 and used to be driven by another older friend (teacher) in the high school bus. There would be 3 busses for private schools ( in the city about 40 km. away) that deliver children each day here.

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      RickWill

      My diesel fuelled car is useless at the moment. The anti-pollution system alarm has come up again. The only way that can be cleared is to get the engine up to temperature and under power for about 10 minutes so the exhaust goes into the cleaning mode to burn the carbon particulates in the exhaust filter. That requires a 10 minute freeway run. At 100kph, 10 minutes takes me out of my 5km radius.

      If the car is operated with the alarm up, it eventually goes into a slow mode – I have no idea how long the alarm can be active before that state occurs. My aim is to avoid that condition.

      So car stuck in the garage for the last three weeks and I give the battery a charge every week.

      I have legs, the bike or my wife’s pedal car (manual gear change) if I need to leave home. We cannot shop together now so I really have no need to leave the property.

      And I thought buying a diesel a few years back was a good idea. Has been a good year for fuel consumption. I was halfway through my second tank before the alarm came up this time around. Last time was as we were able to visit family and I went for a run up the Eastern Freeway to clear the alarm.

      I have a friend who tried to get a permit to check his boat moored at St Kilda before the damaging winds but was refused. He got a taxi because they said they do not get checked. Now he has decided to just go in his own car. If he gets pulled over he will not respond. He will never pay a fine and is happy to go to jail – he figures it will be better than his present circumstances as he can eat for free. He also figures that no one being fined at present will actually pay their fine unless they are public servants and could suffer jobwise if they do not pay up.

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        John PAK

        Straying O/T but you could try 1), adding naphthalene to your diesel. In Au. Chemtec make a product that smells and looks like naphthalene, 2) fit an in-line tin fuel catalyst. Henri Brouquet devised the first one for Hurricanes during WW2. The unit on my Landcruiser was made by Blue Mtns Fuel Injection who have copied and improved the (UK) Brouquet item but you could get one welded up for half the price.
        If you do not add 2-stoke to modern diesel fuel the motor will wear out prematurely. I use 1:1000 minimum.

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          Analitik

          I run 2-stroke (just TCW-3 since it’s not doing 2-stroke RPMs) @ 200:1 in our diesels. The DPF doesn’t seem to go into regen mode as often as well as the engine seeming to run a bit smoother/quieter.

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    Peter Fitzroy

    In the meantime, AGL will provide an electric car, charging station as well as insurance and registration for flat fee. Several models of car will be available under the service, AGL said, including Nissan, Tesla, Jaguar and Hyundai. Customers would not be locked into a contract. This service is already offered to its existing customers.

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    TdeF

    Even the Formula 1 cars are hybrids, with 16% mandated. This is the Kinetic Energy Retention System which saves petrol and gives extra power for overtaking. Not because Formula 1 cars are ‘woke’ but because it makes real sense. I would suggest that most cars will be hybrid soon as the technology is there. Accelerating and decelerating a 500-625kg Lithium battery in a Tesla makes no sense at all and wastes a huge amount of energy and generates useless CO2.

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      Chad

      Key motivator for the Hybrid tech in F1, is the restrictions on fuel consumption ( restricted capacity and no refueling allowed) so anyone who wants to win has to produce more power than their competitors using the same amount of fuel.
      This has lead to the development and adoption of not just hybrid mechanical / electrical drive, regenerative braking, very advanced battery packs, but also electrically driven turbo chargers that can also recover excess thermal energy from the exhaust gasses. And of course , very sophisticated electronic management systems.
      Mercedes, leaders in F1 developments, have transferred the key elements of its F1 hybrid technology to some of its road cars to increase specific power /torque output, reduce fuel consumption , and emissions.
      This technology is driving ICE Hybrid drive systems for road use, to another level of efficiency.

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      neil

      Have you watched the Formula E series, electric open wheelers that can’t make it to the end of the race so they have to pit not to recharge or swap batteries, the drivers swap cars to finish the race. What a joke.

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      Bright Red

      F1 is as woke as they come. The rules are designed around virtue signaling. The KERS just adds weight and complexity for no real benefit. It is only there because the F1 dictators say it must be. Just like the dictators pushing EV.

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        Chad

        You obviously have no clue about F1 rule and regulation development.

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          Bright Red

          I have a lot of experience with F1 rules from tendering to supply equipment to hosting F1 officials at my business many times. So Chad I would say it is you that is out of touch. Clearly the spin doctors have gotten to those that don’t know any better.

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        Chad

        Bright Red
        September 9, 2020 at 9:53 pm · ……. The KERS just adds weight and complexity for no real benefit.

        “No real benefit” ?….Really ?
        Without it , no team could be competitive on the amount of fuel allwed.
        It forces tech development to improve engine efficiency and fuel economy.
        F1 engines are some of the most efficient ( % of fuel converted to mechanical energy). petrol engins available.
        And companies like Mercedes and McLaren are transferring that “benefit” to road cars which will make them more economical.
        I assume you are familiar with the “Trickle Down” effect ?

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      Richard Ilfeld

      Nothing about F1 makes real sense, except perhaps betting on L Hamilton to win.

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      Dennis

      Hybrid with on board generator makes sense to me now that the retail price difference is only a few thousand dollars more that the same vehicle with ICE. But I live in the country and most of my driving is on country roads locally and when touring or driving to Sydney return.

      EV makes no sense financially or when considering range issues and recharging inconvenience even when travelling where recharging stations are located conveniently along the route.

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        Chad

        Be careful !
        Its “ horses for courses”. in reality.
        A hybrid is not sensible for long highway trips….a modern diesel is more economical.
        Hybrids need a stop/start , city, type of use pattern to show their advantage ( recoverng energy from braking and saving energy during accelleration. On a highway, they just run on the ICE continuously with reduced economy.
        The most efficient generator fo a hybrid is the one combined in the Hybrid drive.
        When the battery gets low, the ICE automatically recharges it on the run..
        The BMW i3 EV is/was ? available with an additional petrol generator in the spare wheel well , for those with range concerns..

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    neil

    It’s just not going to happen, people have already made a decision on electric cars and they have rejected them Most people don’t realise that the electric car was invented in 1846, 40 years before the petrol car and typically a new technology replaces an a current tech in 50 to 70 years or it doesn’t happen, in this case petrol is the new technology and it won the race by the 1920′s.

    The big problem in the UK is most homes do not have off street parking, in some places they park two deep on the street so there can be no overnight charging. and with an 80% speed charge taking 15 minutes it’s just not practical for people to que for a recharge, if there are four people in front of you you will be there for 90 minutes.

    The only model that could work is if private car ownership is banned and replaced with an autonomous personal public transport system where you book a car much like a driverless Uber network, then the cars can charge themselves when needed. If something like this doesn’t happen then we can be pretty sure that in 2100 the majority vehicles on the road (or in the air) will still be powered by fossil fuels.

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    Dave in the States

    When you realize that co2 emissions are NOT a problem, and even if they were, EVs do not produce net zero co2 anyway, the whole thing is silly on its face.

    Moreover, consider that because they require the extraction of scarce and expensive resources to produce, the costs are not coming down but going up. Way up. The whole thing is silly on its face.

    The only reason the electrons needed to charge them seem cost effective at this time is because of coal. If the generation of said electrons have to come from unreliables, then those electrons are going to get real scarce and real expensive. The whole thing is silly on its face.

    As others up thread have mentioned; if the idea is to price everyone but the rich out of the market, then we see what it’s all about. Even if that’s not the intention that is what the result would be.

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    Dennis

    Not much has changed, EV remains problematical in 2020, despite the woke people who cannot even understand that in Australia most baseload and peak demand periods electricity is generated by coal fired power stations, so our tiny EV fleet runs mostly on grid sourced fossil fuel and less efficient use of fuel than ICEV burning liquid fossil fuel.

    “Yet, it was Henry Ford’s mass-produced Model T that dealt a blow to the electric car. Introduced in 1908, the Model T made gasoline-powered cars widely available and affordable. By 1912, the gasoline car cost only $650, while an electric roadster sold for $1,750. That same year, Charles Kettering introduced the electric starter, eliminating the need for the hand crank and giving rise to more gasoline-powered vehicle sales.

    Other developments also contributed to the decline of the electric vehicle. By the 1920s, the U.S. had a better system of roads connecting cities, and Americans wanted to get out and explore. With the discovery of Texas crude oil, gas became cheap and readily available for rural Americans, and filling stations began popping up across the country. In comparison, very few Americans outside of cities had electricity at that time. In the end, electric vehicles all but disappeared by 1935.”

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    Yonason

    Battery issue..

    …replacing all the United Kingdom’s vehicles with next-generation EVs would require more than half the world’s annual production of copper; twice its annual cobalt; three quarters of its yearly lithium carbonate output; and nearly its entire annual production of neodymium.

    From here, where we also learn what real oppression is for those who have to mine those resources.

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    GlenAustralia

    You are all fogetting the UN “SUSTAINABILITY” goals, amongst which are the population and compact-cities.
    — The UN has stated that “the earth can only sustain a population of 500 million people”, which means the eradication of 7.5 billion people.
    — The UN has stated it intends to move everyone into large cities and return everywhere else to wilderness … except the farms which will have farmers AND the large country properties which will house the ELITES … but everyone else – normal (aka enslaved) people – will be in large compact cities and so wont need cars at all.

    When these goals are realized (cough COVID Vaccine cough) there wont be the need to mine all that Cobalt, Lithium, etc. simply because only the ELITES will be allowed to travel places.

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    dkp

    This will impact the petrol fuel supply lines long before 2035 as people stop investing in that market. The loss of economies of scale will drive up the cost of the essential fossil fuel ecosphere – that part of transport that cannot be electrocuted. All shipping cost increases will be passed on to the consumers who will have been double-dinged by also having to pay for expensive and unreliable energy. It is a good time to invest in China’s economy where these artificial barricades to profit won’t exist. Meanwhile, what will everyone do to earn a living when all the jobs have moved to more affordable countries?

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    Geoff Sherrington

    I love the smell of my supercharger in the morning.
    Geoff S

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    Gerry, England

    Forbes has a brilliant piece on battery cars which suggests that the ideal version is a souped up golf cart which will be much cheaper to buy and work fine around cities – the only place they are viable. Ignoring the very top end battery cars, the ones being produced are aiming to replace normal cars which is not possible. In testing on the latest small battery cars the real world range when used on a motorway was just…..EIGHTY MILES!!!! Just shows how the manufacturers claimed ranges are so detached from real use. While there is doubt over fuel consumption veracity, it doesn’t really matter as you just fill up a little more often but with the time taken to recharge a battery car, your journey becomes a whole lot more difficult.

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