JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

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Weekend Unthreaded, 8.3 out of 10 based on 15 ratings

194 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #

    If anyone is able to provide data for my latest article I would be grateful

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/28/when-will-temperatures-start-to-fall-part1/

    The title is self explanatory

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    • #
      Yonniestone

      A very good question Tony, testing the hypothesis that CO2 is Earths temperature control knob is a big argument from both sides that needs clarification.

      We should find out what the real knob is.

      40

      • #
        R.B.

        Is the data any good is first. Even sceptics treat the data as if it’s a reading from a calibrated instrument.

        40

      • #
        Howie from Indiana

        Could we be overlooking the obvious. Like where does the bulk of Earth’s energy come from? Most warmist sites claim that CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas. That’s a blatant lie! Earth is a water planet. It is water in all its forms- water vapor, water ice and liquid water- that keep Earth within the bounds necessary for life.

        There is poor correlation of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature over long periods of geologic time. I have an old physical geography book, published ca. 1980 that has a graph of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration vs. time (yrs.). The graph shows a steadily increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide with no minima. On the same page there is a graph of temperature vs. time (actually temperature variations). This graph shows an increase up to about 1940, then a decline until the mid to late sixties when temps start to increase again. I am unaware of any large amount(s) of volcanic activity during this period. Could the explanation be atomic bomb testing? If not it seems to me that this is a serious contradiction to AGW theory.

        50

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Howie:

          Don’t you know that all objections to AGW theory are ignored?

          Since 1855 (the supposed end of The Little Ice Age) the temperature rose, fell after about 1883 (Krakatau eruption) until about 1915, rose to about 1940, fell thereafter until the late 1960′s (or 1979 in the USA), rose until 1989 (or 1998 if you like) then didn’t rise, except in adjusted figures, until 2017. The last 3 years have been “the warmest ever” but the World Temperature has declined for 3 years by very small amounts (World Meteorological Org.).
          That is the official story. In practice Greenland sea ice was much reduced in 1819**, glaciers in Glacier Bay in southern Alaska started melting in the 1780′s, Mt. Blanc glaciers started melting in 1838, and England had a warm summer in 1846 and Paris had a heat wave in summer 1850 when they closed all the theatres. Either 1895 or 1905 were very cold years in England but 1911 was a hot summer in Paris. There is little doubt that the temperature rose quickly after about 1915 as Svalbard (then called Spitzbergen) had no sea ice around it all year in 1924*** and in Iceland they started growing barley again after 400 years of it being too cold****. Temperatures in much of North America were hotter then than now in the 1930′s (Great Plains Dustbowl).
          And supposedly CO2 controls the temperature.
          [Was found in the spam filter.] ED

          21

          • #
            Howie from Indiana

            The only thing CO2 drives is the carbon cycle. It warms or cools just like all the other gases in the lower atmosphere by conduction. In the upper atmosphere it emits IR to space. CO2 might actually have a net cooling effect.

            10

    • #
      TdeF

      “Assuming we reach zero carbon emissions by 2030.. how long would it take for CO2 levels to naturally fall”

      This assumes many unproven things. Firstly that man released CO2 is entirely responsible for the 50% increase in CO2 since 1900. Then that this increase is entirely responsible for the 1C increase in this manufactured ‘global’ temperature. And then man released CO2 stays in the air for a very long time. Then that there is a some ‘natural’ level, to which CO2 levels will ‘naturally’ fall.

      A question then, as man released CO2 is only 5% of released CO2 each year, how is the ‘natural’ level set? And why is the other 95% in perfect balance but not the ‘extra’ CO2? And if the other 95% of CO2 is absorbed as quickly as it is released, why not man released CO2? Why is the exchange of gases between the earth, vegetation, land and sea precisely balanced and cannot accept any more?

      This concept of perfect balance underpins everything. But it is not how equilibrium works.

      Consider that even the CSIRO admits the world is greening with the extra CO2. Why doesn’t this pull the CO2 level down? And how much greening would it take each year to absorb this extra 5%?

      Also if the earth’s ocean surfaces are heating, why doesn’t this release more CO2, instead of absorbing it as is alleged in Ocean Acidification. Or even why doesn’t Ocean Acidification reduce the amount of CO2 in the air? Isn’t the ocean one of those sinks in the Bern balance? So if the proposal is that extra CO2 is accomodated, why isn’t that added into the equation? Or the extra CO2 in plants?

      And then why is nothing we have done in thirty years reflected in the steadily climbing CO2 levels? You cannot see bushfires, volcanoes, the massive rise in Chinese coal consumption, the cessation of flying and driving. But we can see a great deal, like the annual, unexplained and undisturbed fluctuations. What causes those? And if we can see this tiny effect, why can’t we see any other?

      No, it’s all nonsense science. CO2 is rapidly absorbed in the water which covers 80% of the planet. It is highly compressible so it sinks to the depths, one atmosphere every 10 metres. The sink is near infinite so that 50x as much CO2 is dissolved in the oceans. And when we humans doubled C14O2 in 1965, we saw it decay in a perfect e-kt curve with a half life of 13 years, which means a half life of absorption of 6.5 years (exchange goes both ways).

      So CO2 is in equilibrium, rapidly absorbed and the tiny 5% added each year is only 5% of 2% or 0.1% and utterly negligible. So the equilibrium is not precious, tipping point, critical but like a spring, bounces up and down driven ultimately by solar cycles. Everything else is convenient conjecture by pushers of windmills and solar panels in a very profitable Western cult.

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      • #
        el gordo

        ‘So CO2 is in equilibrium, rapidly absorbed and the tiny 5% added each year is only 5% of 2% or 0.1% and utterly negligible.’

        Nicely put, so the increasing carbon dioxide is coming from natural sources and not the hand of man.

        81

        • #
          TdeF

          Yes. To be more exact, it is coming from the near infinite source in the world’s oceans.

          There is more air in the oceans than in the air. Evolution started in the oceans and is based on photosynthesis producing oxygen and we animals breathe oxygen and burn hydrated carbon dioxide known as carbohydrate. And we act surprised that the oceans are the source of all life. And in your lungs are 400 square meters of wet tissue so you can walk on land and extract O2 and breathe out CO2. Human embryos show gills as they go though a tadpole phase, reflecting all our dna history. We have made a good life on land and think the thin air above is all there is. It’s the air below which is the key. And an upper atmosphere scientist like James Hansen has no idea.

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          • #
            • #
              TdeF

              Their casual explanation of the cycles does not match the facts, growth and decay. Look for the weekly carbon dioxide concentration. It is maximum in the spring and minimum in autumn. But they do not mention it. The voice of authority is enough.

              41

              • #
                TdeF

                And you also cannot see any evidence of cycles in human activity.

                31

              • #
                el gordo

                My thinking is that something happens to the CO2 bubbles encased in ice, which corrupts the signal. Possibly a chemical reaction?

                There are other methods to discover the CO2 levels in the atmosphere, but first we must find fault with the ice cores.

                41

              • #
                TdeF

                And it’s not just that the explanation of decay and regrowth is exactly wrong, it’s that you cannot see it at all. So there is a very different effect which is anticyclic with the biosphere seasons. And 180 degrees out from the Southern Hemisphere say at Cape Grim. In both CO2 is a maximum in spring/summer and a minimum in autumn/winter. That looks more like sunshine and warming ocean surface. And besides, there is relatively little vegetation in the world at the latitude of Cape Grim, but the effect is even stronger.

                51

              • #
                el gordo

                A brief extract which confirms that ice cores are not to be trusted. Stomatal proxy has a clear picture of the termination.

                https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379113000553

                11

              • #

                Similarly, no one seems to mention the fact that CO2 concentration can have a substantial diurnal variation. At my place, 19°11’34.27″S,146°40’39.74″E the variation is around 380 – 425. Not much seasonal variation, but photosynthesis is operating all year round. Sea grass, mangrove swamps, coastal savanna woodland. “Spikes” of 450 sometimes occur late afternoon in summer, which could be out-gassing, but also maybe the mangrove swamp going super-charged? Other times 450+ means back-burning or a bushfire somewhere up-wind. Global Average CO2 might be as meaningful as global average temperature. The OCO2 satellite didn’t show much in the way of “bad” places, and very little annual change across the southern hemisphere. Why was nothing released after the initial 2014-15 results?

                30

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                El Gordo,

                Not to be trusted?

                The analysis of stomata could possibly show greater detail than ice core assessments.

                The stomata based data isn’t available so it’s hard to make further comment, but it may be that the period of stomata analysis is shorter than the 425,000 year ice core graphs being discussed.

                Regardless of the absolute values in the ice cores, the relative values and movement show a consistency that is very believable.

                Is 2020 stomata data easy linked to “preserved” stomata data from 425,000 years back?

                KK

                30

              • #
                Peter C

                The OCO2 satellite didn’t show much in the way of “bad” places, and very little annual change across the southern hemisphere. Why was nothing released after the initial 2014-15 results?

                I have wondered about that also.

                00

              • #
                Slithers

                The relative pressure effects the merging and migration of gas bubbles so the result is Homogenized, don’t you know.

                00

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              El Gordo,

              That’s an old trick, and you’ve fallen for it.

              Do you know anything about science or statistics, either would do.

              The graph shows CO2 levels over the last half a million years, the period of lowest CO2 levels ever experienced on earth.

              Look at the CO2 fluctuations in the graph.

              Huge: and not caused by man: homo erecti.

              Those dangerous CO2 increases were caused by variations in orbital mechanics, aka nature.

              Those ancient measurements were created from analysis of stored ice fields and have to be acknowledged as such.

              The modern Mannian, or perhaps Manic, CO2 estimates were done using direct air samples, no ice involved, and with chemical analysis initially and more modern techniques recently.

              The data is not comparable, not that either set is wrong, but the sampling issue needs to be clearly acknowledged.

              It is misleading in the extreme to suggest that you can simply tack on modern data from direct sampling to that obtained from ice cores.

              I have little doubt that in the ancient world of ice cores there were periods of 400 plus CO2.

              The ice cores conclusively show that nature controls CO2 variance in the atmosphere.

              KK

              51

              • #
                el gordo

                ‘Those dangerous CO2 increases were caused by variations in orbital mechanics, aka nature.’

                You might need to expand on that.

                21

              • #
                TdeF

                And say there were historic spikes in CO2. Would any ancient proxy data show it? No. All determining what happened is about averaging.

                Ice cores work on the assumption that CO2 is trapped but in the process some leaches out. It degrades time resolution. This leaching may be tiny but you are talking of a long time, so CO2 can move between layers. This means the average story is right but any sharp peaks are gone. However no one mentions averaging or resolution of any method. Even a little bit of averaging would eliminate the most recent changes in CO2.

                A real scientist would point out that the negatives in the method mean averages are good but sharp changes cannot be preserved.

                61

              • #
                el gordo

                OK, thanks.

                30

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Expanding.

                The earth moves about the Sun.
                The orbit varies over time: in simple terms orbiting in roughly circular patterns to an elongated elipse later in the cycle. This pattern has been repeated several times but as history shows, it’s only temporary.
                If we get another repetition of this cycle we will enter a cooling phase for about 70,000 years before warming over the following 25,000 years. Interglacial, like now, and the more glaciation.

                50

              • #
                el gordo

                ‘The Milankovitch cycles include: The shape of Earth’s orbit, known as eccentricity; The angle Earth’s axis is tilted with respect to Earth’s orbital plane, known as obliquity; and. The direction Earth’s axis of rotation is pointed, known as precession.’ NASA

                Its well documented, but perhaps too big a picture with huge cycles. Of more immediate interest is the impact of a quiet sun, if any.

                Planetary alignments and our moon might also be included in short term variability, but there is little support for the lunar hypothesis.

                31

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Yes, the Milankovic cycles, well demonstrated in the original graphs that you linked to. A mixture of orbital precession of Earth’s axis relative to the plane of Earth’s orbit around the Sun and the changing orbit patterns mentioned earlier. Some have noted a 26,000 years cycle. Four times that is about the period shown for the four cycles shown in the original link.

                The factors are;
                Orbital proximity to Sun.
                Angle of Earth’s axis to Sun.

                CO2 will then follow the temperature induced by this combination of factors.

                CO2 levels do not lead atmospheric temperature.

                They follow.

                KK

                30

            • #
              Slithers

              Look very very carefully at the data from Muna Loa it has a very regular shape. A saw-tooth wave form.
              No I am not going into why that waveform is in anti-phase with the IPCC explanation of why CO2 goes up and down.
              Just try, try really hard to show me another natural physical,observable sequence that exhibits such a saw-tooth wave form!
              There isn’t one!

              Just what the hell is that published result over decades telling us?

              Could it be that the instruments required to measure atmospheric CO2 need to be replaced every 6 months?
              Who and How can atmospheric CO2 be measured on the flanks of an active volcano that is constantly out-gassing?
              Why is that graph that shape, the change from negative going to positive going has not been investigated, WHY?
              Questions yet more questions!

              10

      • #
        MCMXLIII

        … if the earth’s ocean surfaces are heating, why doesn’t this release more CO2 …

        There does appear to be some lagging relationship between strong El Niños and annual rate of change in the atmospheric CO2 concentration:
        https://www.climate4you.com/images/DIFF12_CO2-MaunaLoa_NOAA%20CPC%20OceanicNinoIndexMonthly1979%20With37monthRunningAverage_FloatingBars.gif

        10

        • #
          el gordo

          Excellent correlation, ENSO controls temperature and CO2 levels.

          There was a time early in the Holocene when ENSO was inoperable and the thermostat turned off, a very strange world indeed.

          11

        • #
          Slithers

          Heating at the surface takes rather a long time to penetrate to the depths.

          10

    • #
      Strop

      Does any of this CO2 budget modeling discussion from Roy Spencer assist? (irrelevant if CO2 isn’t the driver of temperature change)

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/02/will-humanity-ever-reach-2xco2-possibly-not/

      follow-up article which corrected an error in the above article
      http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/02/nature-has-been-removing-excess-co2-4x-faster-than-ipcc-models/

      20

    • #
      RickWill

      I provided details at WUWT but the question is quite easy to answer. There are two assumptions that are widely accepted:
      1. All global warming since 1850 has been due to CO2 – this is the IPCC position.
      2. HALF of the CO2 from fossil fuel is absorbed in the natural environment – a simplifying assumption that is not far from measurements.

      It follows from 2 that CO2 will fall at the same rate of rising from the point that fossil fuels are no longer burnt. Hence the cooling process will be the reverse of the heating process.

      If there is no added CO2 beyond 2030 then that means there has been 180 years of heating so there will be 180 years of cooling to get back to perfect weather by 2210.

      This is data from my heating model that I linked to at WUWT:
      https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgnXLo5LnjuHhohGM
      This considers CO2 doubling from pre-industrial levels and is based on the measured temperature rise of the oceans 0-200m – nominally the lowest noise temperature record available. I have found Sea Surface Temperature has a lot of ‘noise’ due to precipitation and run-off into oceans in the northern hemisphere. Global surface temperature is a meaningless number corrupted by homogenisation.

      30

      • #

        Rick does your model take into account the thermal expansion of CO2? Just like a hot air balloon is held up by the hot exhaust of the gas heater, CO2 will absorb heat then rise to carry it up to where it can radiate out. Thus CO2 should untrap heat on a hot day to combat hot extremes while CO2 back radiation should work only to combat cool extremes. My theory is that CO2 is the solution to the natural climate change problem. So if we do have a problem and we may not then just add CO2 to fix it.

        21

        • #
          RickWill

          The model does not rely on anything about CO2 other than the assumptions I listed. Those assumptions are ‘the consensus’ position.

          This is the temperature data set that the heating is based on:
          https://data.nodc.noaa.gov/woa/DATA_ANALYSIS/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/DATA/basin/3month_mt/T-dC-w0-2000m1-3.dat
          There has been a massive increase in temperature of 0.108C in the last 65 years. Based on the heating model, the temperature rise will be 0.4C by the time CO2 reaches 570ppm in 2080.

          The sea surface temperature will change a bit more but it is a very noisy signal and corrupted by homogenisation. The deep ocean temperature is hardly an ideal data set but it is lower noise than any surface data set. The heating is not statistical significant but if the 0.108C is an accurate reflection of reality then my model provides a good predictor IF those two assumptions around CO2 apply; one a belief and the other a simplification of measured data.

          I personally believe Australia was warmer in the 1890s than now based on the good temperature records in remote locations:
          http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=047007&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
          http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=085096&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13

          US was probably warmer in the 1930s.

          60

          • #

            Thanks Rick but wouldn’t 0.108C only explain half the warming caused by wind turbines. CO2 could have counteracted the other half but perhaps the wind turbines are too unreliable even for that.

            11

            • #
              RickWill

              I do not need to explain any other reason than the fundamental assumption. – all warming in the deep oceans is solely a function of increasing atmospheric CO2. That is ‘the consensus’ view. My model is based on that fundamental assumption; realistic or otherwise.

              As I noted previously, I have considerable doubt that there has been any warming.

              I am not a PPPW – person promising perfect weather by changing electricity generators to weather dependent versions.

              20

              • #

                Thanks Rick and sorry for mocking the models but they are worthy of nothing else. Nothing wrong with you checking it all. PPPW. Yes they failed history.

                10

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            Richard Lindzen claims that 0.4℃ of warming may occur when the CO2 level reaches 820 p.p.m.

            I am deliberately leaving any details about R.L. out so P.F. has to do some research.

            10

            • #
              Graeme No.3

              And by the way, I was wrong? I calculated the warming effect of CO2 around 820 p.p.m. at 0.08℃ and 0.07℃. It was some time ago and I forget the details of the first but it was based on the relative I.R. spectra of CO2 and water vapour vs claimed warming over 165 years.
              The second was using the Ideal Gas Law (Yes, I know it isn’t really ideal) but as a side effect got a temperature for the surface of Venus of 396℃. Since the data for Venus has changed and the atmosphere is now considered as a bit stratified I haven’t bothered further (and never included the sulphuric acid as a greenhouse gas). Compare it with P.F.’s claim that the Earth has warmed 1℃ since 1855 when the HADCRUT database – “the most prestigeous and comprehensive” to quote a green site – is based on 1 thermometer in the entire Southern Hemisphere for 1855 – 1858 incl. Said thermometer being sited in what is now Indonesia. And 3 thermometers from 1858 to into the 1860′s (from Australia).

              20

          • #

            “US was probably warmer in the 1930s.”
            Australia may have been also. The data required to prove that is either gone or not digitised but taken on differently designed Stevenson screens anyway. That is screens with four white wooden legs instead of a grey central pole and with 3 x 3 wooden frame under the box and between the legs positioned to block ground radiation and reflection from entering through the gaps between floor slats.
            Notice the grass and framework seen through the gap here.
            https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f2/Interior_of_a_stevenson_screen_at_the_Darwin_Met_Office.jpg

            10

            • #
              tonyb

              Thanks for all the great answers. In truth the science remains at best uncertain. At times it is ambiguous. Using the ‘approved’ science as we know it does however deflect any criticism from alarmists that sceptics choose to ignore what the warmists believe is self evident reality.

              Looking at the answers on WUWT it is obvious that American sceptics are cocooned by their President who is also sceptical. Unlike those of us in most of the rest of the world who have a hysterical, media, public and govt who will switch back to their hysteria about the climate once they have stopped their even greater hysteria about Covid.

              IF Biden should win, those claiming the science is wrong will no longer have any leverage as the New President and running mate implicitly believe in the science and will enact large parts of the green deal to combat what they believe is a looming disaster. They will also rejoin Paris.

              20

  • #

    Third item down is an Interesting chart showing your likelihood of surviving covid according to age and existing illnesses

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/page/2/

    80

    • #
      Peter C

      Thanks tonyb,

      The Covid scare is gradually diminishing as the facts expose the alarmism.

      Death by Covid or death with Covid is gradually getting attention. The “excess deaths” were given as a reason to fear the mortality of Covid, so I thought this was interesting”

      According to the ONS, during the height of the epidemic in the UK two out of every five excess deaths, or 16,000 deaths, were from causes other than “with COVID-19”, most of them a result of lack of access to medical care. This disturbing picture is coming into sharper focus now as more data comes in. The Telegraph‘s Laura Donnelly reports that the number of heart attacks detected and treated fell by 40% during the pandemic, while the number of deaths from heart attacks spiked by a similar amount:

      Mis-coding of Covid deaths served to confuse the issue even further and is still a confounding factor.

      70

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      An excellent summation.

      The Herd mentality is present in all countries but Sweden where the public are not subjected to distortions of fact, untruths and bizarre social control and manipulation.

      If any proof is needed all we have to do is look at the entrapment of the western herds in the Man Made Global Warming and death by incineration due to CO2 control scheme.

      Then the devastation of post WW11 Europe by the controlling Elites of the EEU, and more lately the “unprecedented” CV19 non crisis.

      In reality, the CV19 crisis does have many precedents which didn’t require the extraordinary impositions currently in use.

      What next:
      if the glitterati can get away with the microanalysis of CO2 subatomic behaviour, just think what they could do to terrify the world with the s p d f orbitals of oxygen which is soo much bigger.

      The world has gone mad.

      KK

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    • #

      This could all be ended if you just gave the virus the right to vote. Can any of you virus lives matter supporters tell me why southern hemisphere and equatorial countries have suddenly risen to be at the top of the all important “active cases” lists?
      Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Bolivia, Peru all up there among the top 20 losers. Peter Gutwein’s Tasmania lockdowns and lock outs worked too well though. So no problem there and Victoria’s attempt to imitate that success is clearly working as the problem moves to N.S.W.
      I suspect it will all get easier south of the equator after the equinox. It will also flare up again where the seeds have been planted for a later crop in the northern hemisphere. Any better answers?

      21

    • #

      Tonyb “Third item down is an Interesting chart showing your likelihood of surviving”
      Thanks for that did not know i was not in the 99.99. still not worried for myself though. Just a large number of vulnerable friends. Is there a chart with percentages for those who will survive with long lasting minor after effects like having all four limbs amputated?

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      • #

        A little question about that 99.99%. That is 1 chance in 10,000 and would mean the maximum possible deaths per million was 100. Yet many places have gone well over 100 deaths per million. So here is the question. That chart is not meant for people who check numbers is it?

        Global population 7,800,000,000. 1 in 10,000 of that would be 780,000 but the global death toll is already 846,937, going up at 5,444 per day and not looking like stopping any time soon.

        00

        • #

          hmmm. Well if you stretch the elastic word “Most” right out it could mean 200 deaths per million as a maximum possible but that is just a few months away.

          00

  • #
    Slithers

    The Asymptomatic Breadcrumb Trail.

    There are an ever-increasing number of people with-out symptoms who get tested and have a positive result. Some will be recovered Covid-19 suffers who had a mild infection. Some will be false positives. The people who are Asymptomatic and positive are the people who are the greatest danger to the continued spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
    The following is pure speculation I am a logician not a medically trained person.
    What if that asymptomatic person did not get infected by an air-borne virus,but Ingested it?
    The Virus had to survive the passage through the digestive juices, but manages to latch on to an ACE2 receptor in the gut. The virus takes over the cell and production of new viral progeny begins. The immune system knows nothing of this. The cell starts to produce new virus’s some of which are launched into the blood stream some into the gut. The immune system becomes alerted to these foreign bodies, and a defense is mounted. Those virus’s that were released into the gut. Either pass through or manage to latch on to other ace2 receptors causing a local infection.
    The immune system does not have any means of stopping the infection in the gut. Inflammation sets in, diarrhea is a symptom, the immune system cannot shut down the infected cells, there is no way to identify which cells are infected. General anti-inflammatory response is all that can be done the local infection gets more severe and the viral production is ramped up several thousand times, the immune system fails to capture just one virus in the now infectious persons blood stream that just happens to drift by an alveolar and infects a single lung cell. A day or so later that infected cell caused a cough reflex and viruses are launched into the air ways. Spreading the infection into other alveolar and being ejected into the atmosphere.
    The immune system ramps up and the infection is locally contained and the infected lung cells become dysfunctional due to the inflammatory response. But the infection continues as a low-level infection. A war is raging but neither side is winning, the Asymptomatic person goes on, going on about his/her life, spreading the virus every time he/she coughs.
    The person is tested and is deemed positive, is put into isolation and tested again, Again a positive result. Supportive medical treatment is applied. The immune system thus fortified begins to win the battle. Further infection stops and the infected cells eventually die and the person tests negative but had antibodies.

    31

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Hands up all those who are aware of the following “global mean temperature has increased by about 1 degree C over the last 100 years”
    Keep your hands up if you think that this rise is not uniform over the globe (eg. the arctic is warming faster than lower latitudes)
    Keep your hands up if you think that this will result in some areas becoming uninhabitable in the summer (not the arctic, that was only an example of temperature rise above the average)
    For those who no long have your hands up, consider the US city of Phoenix I would implore you to do your own research for other cities. (India and the Middle East are exemplars)

    the problem is that as you move inland, the average temperature increases, meaning that although the coast remains liveable, the same can not be said for the interior.

    126

    • #
      David Wojick

      Warming above average is only predicted for high latitudes, where it will be a blessing.

      But we do not know that it has warmed even one degree:
      https://www.cfact.org/2017/05/18/fake-temperatures/

      And if it has warmed that tiny amount, that humans had anything to do with it:
      https://www.cfact.org/2018/01/02/no-co2-warming-for-the-last-40-years/

      So your apparent assumption that dangerous human caused global warming is a real threat is unfounded, to say the least.

      201

      • #
        Strop

        Hi David,

        The “fake warming” link includes the following statement:

        .
        “But the satellites show no such warming in the atmosphere over this period, where it should be if it were caused by greenhouse gases. The satellites show no warming at all over this crucial time.”
        .

        This chart of the global lower atmosphere suggests a warming of 0.14deg C per decade.
        http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2020_v6.jpg
        .

        It shows a lesser rate of warming than what surface temps supposedly show, but it does show a warming of the atmosphere.
        Apparently the atmosphere over land has warmed at 0.18deg C and over oceans at 0.12deg C. Figures from Roy Spencer’s monthly publication of the satellite data.

        .
        The second link admits this by stating:

        .
        “Also, the satellite measurements do show some global warming, which people have mistakenly assumed somehow supports the hypothesis of human caused, CO2 induced warming. “

        .
        Perhaps the first link can be dispensed with, as its basic argument is that the satellites show “no warming” therefore the surface temps are fake. There’s other reasons why the surface temps are unreliable without using this.

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    • #
      David Wojick

      Another fallacy: a degree or two of warming will not make Phoenix or similar cities “unlivable”. It would likely be undetectable. It would actually be nice if it was at night in winter, which some models predict. That is when most of the warming to date has occurred, according to some sources.

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        Peter C

        Excellent concise reply David.

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      • #
        Graeme No.3

        100℉ is just short of 38℃. If that is deadly it means we must evacuate most of WA and all of Qld. The sooner the better because of all those people moving there. Despite historical records of that, or higher temperatures well before the present.

        Perhaps Peter Fitzroy could explain why the temperature fell after 1945 just as the atmospheric CO2 level started to rise quickly. That cooling only lasted for about 35 years, but we can calculate the climate sensitivity
        (1855 to 1915) CO2 up 10 ppm. and a rise of ?℃ (no reliable figures). Much melting of glaciers in Europe and Nth America so certainly some
        (1915 to 1945) CO2 up 9 ppm. and a rise of 0.45℃.
        (1945 to 1980) CO2 up 28 ppm. and a fall of 0.45℃. J. Hansen NASA 1980 wasn’t as warm as 1944.
        (1981 to 2020) CO2 up 76 ppm. and a possible rise of 0.5℃

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        I did not say that David, an average 1 degree C increase would be measured in Phoenix as 5-6 degrees C.

        Misdirection and misreading

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        • #
          David Wojick

          No science suggests this Peter.

          30

        • #
          David Wojick

          Supposedly we have had one degree of warming already and Phoenix is fine. Your alarmist use of “would” has no scientific basis. And to repeat, if it occured in winter nights it would actually be good.

          In short, you are treating pure worst case speculation as if it were an established fact. This is the essential fallacy of alarmism.

          40

    • #
      robert rosicka

      There’s a couple of things that AGW theologians never mention about that supposed warming -
      First is the error margin , our own BOM chief when in senate estimates refused to answer what their margin for error even was .
      Second is the fact that it’s been slowly warming since we came out of the last ice age .
      Finally Peter a model is still a guess made by inputting assumptions into a computer and a theory is still only a theory until its proven .

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        Just watching Malcolm Roberts on Sky news “Outsiders program” and he is saying the CSIRO have admitted they have no proof that CO2 from fossil fuel causes any warming .

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        • #
          PeterS

          Saw that too. Outsides today also exposed how our own state and federal governments are deliberately trying to hide the truth about the benefits of using Hydroxychloroquine, and doctors are advised not to prescribe it or else they might be hit hard with fines or worse. Together with the emission reduction nonsense, we are clearly being lead down the garden path by our political leaders. Not good.

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    • #
      el gordo

      ‘Keep your hands up if you think that this rise is not uniform over the globe … ‘

      Sir, looking at the graph you can see the Great Climate Shift of 1976 without a CO2 booster. Do you have any idea what may have caused that spike?

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        none at all el gordo, but climate is a running mean 30 years as the baseline. anything else is weather.

        29

        • #
          el gordo

          It feels like an internal dynamic and climate is linked to the PDO cycle.

          “The surge in global temperatures since 1977 can be attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely than they were over the previous 30 years and cooling La Niña conditions less likely.

          “We have shown that internal global climate-system variability accounts for at least 80% of the observed global climate variation over the past half-century.” Chris de Freitas

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        • #
          David Wojick

          Last I checked 1976 was over 30 years ago so that shift is now climate change. All of the warming since then also appears to be natural, mostly due to a few giant El Niño’s.

          https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/pause_step_up.png

          30

    • #
      Graeme#4

      PF, I lived on the middle of the Nullarbor Plain for over two years and daily worked in buildings that were over 50 C in summer. Then at night I would often have three blankets on the bed, trying to get warm. Are you trying to tell me that I would have noticed a one degree temperature change in a place where the temperature would change at a rate of ten degrees an hour? And I’ve also worked and lived in Phoenix for a while, and can assure you that Phoenix is vastly more preferable than the Nullarbor.

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        did not have fans, air con?

        pull the other one

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        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Do you have another one?

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        • #
          Graeme#4

          PF, you really don’t seem to have any idea of what working in the bush was like. I’m talking 60s, not the modern day. There were very few air conditioners and fans around. Most of the equipment buildings were pressurised with hot air straight off the desert, pumped through the equipment, then this superheated air was what you worked in. And when it was really hot, the very few air conditioners that existed were shut down, along with all power to the houses, to keep the temps down on the generation plant. I used to work with rags wrapped around my hands so that I pick up metal objects.

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        • #
          Annie

          Accidental green there PF. Not many ACs around in the past. We were lucky to have fans in the 50s and 60s. Didn’t have AC in Melbourne in the mid 80s and no overhead fans either in the accommodation we were allocated. Not quite sure how I survived 42.3C that first summer in Aus! :(

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    • #
      el gordo

      ‘For those who no longer have your hands up …’

      As G4 said, continentality is an important metric.

      21

    • #
      John F. Hultquist

      I was in Tucson AZ (early 1980s) and it was 117°F., so I guess it is getting cooler in southern AZ. However, if I ever go again, likely it will be early March.

      30

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Twitter suspended conservative satire site TheBabylonBee’s Twitter account but then fortunately reinstated it. Twitter was no doubt testing for a backlash. All conservative social media accounts, including even President Trump’s, are under threat from the Left.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Where does Australia’s future lie?

    *Agriculture is being shut down because the government prefers to empty irrigation water into the sea. And Greens and other leftards want to shut down animal production. Dams are close to impossible to get built. No vision for large scale irrigation.

    *Industry is being shut down due to expensive gas, electricity and feral unions plus unreasonable regulations.

    *One of the world’s most fanatical beliefs in anthropogenic global warming and fanatical commitment to unreliable weather-dependent electricity production.

    *Rocks (minerals) can be sourced cheaper in Africa from the numerous Chinese colonies there. And Greens want to shut down the coal industry.

    *Tourism for overseas visitors is very expensive as it is for locals. It is cheaper for locals to holiday overseas.

    *Tertiary education is currently a good export earner but comes at the cost of extremely dumbed down degrees which are impossible to fail thus damaging Australia’s reputation long term.

    *Commercial fishing has been made difficult or impossible by excessive regulations hence large fisheries imports, many from disgusting fish farms in Third World countries or polluted waters.

    *There are severe restrictions on exploring for oil and gas.

    * Nuclear electricity production and nuclear submarines are prohibited.

    *We have some of the most expensive real estate prices in the world due to lack of policies conducive to decentralisation.

    *The welfare system is unsustainable and many choose a life on welfare, especially some new immigrants who will never work as they have no employable skill.

    *High levels of immigration from some people who will never assimilate or work and contribute nothing but trouble.

    *Foreign borrowings by government are massive and it’s difficult to see how they can be repaid.

    *There are more and more regulations affecting every aspect of economic and other activity and Nanny Statism is out of control.

    *The government has a fanatical commitment to implementing virtually every decree from a corrupt and incompetent and Third World oriented UN which actively works to destroy Western Civilisation.

    *Massive mismanagement of C-19 plus refusal to allow possible treatments such as HCQ. Economic destruction as a result of massive government spending and forced shutdowns.

    *A public service which is afraid to give independent advice but merely state what the government wants to hear. All appointments at a senior level given to government sycophants.

    *Australia has no worthy leader like Trump and we have little hope but to become a third rate Western-style country such as Venezuela.

    *The government, even supposedly conservative ones, spend without constraint.

    *I’m sure I have missed many issues in this short list…

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    • #
      Yonniestone

      Its a dire list for sure David, other than that life’s pretty good………. (joke) ;)

      I’d say the biggest problem with your list is trying to get a majority to believe its true, if any of it, the ‘head in the sand’ reaction to any conversations political or economical is the real pandemic out there, most are content with apathy towards impending disaster as long as free handouts are available and the footy’s still going.

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    • #

      It is not for me from the UK to run another country down but many on here complain about the lack of free speech and a clause that forbids criticism of certain racial groups

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      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Tonyb:

        I can asure you that there is no censorship of criticism of white people in Australia, especially by the public broadcasters.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      David,

      That’s a brilliant, if confronting, summary of Australia 2020.

      We have been purified, deindustrialised and more lately over-sanitised.

      The biggy is that so many people seeing the devastation of decades of work, thrift and law abiding behaviour washed away by Politicians will just give up.

      Completely.

      KK

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    • #
      Serp

      Promise of things to come in Victoria when 3AW reported “Storm damage on Thursday night led to water from Silvan Dam that is yet to be disinfected entering the water supply system.”

      Power outage on the Ausnet side of the state was extensive and many properties are still without power with two weeks of curfew remaining.

      And covid has halted the bushfire load clearing.

      Time for a read of Pilgrim’s Progress (https://www.gutenberg.org/files/39452/39452-h/39452-h.htm) to avoid the Slough of Despond.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Banana banana banana republic……

      I will suggest to my kids to leave as soon as they can….go somewhere else….

      50

  • #
    TdeF

    On the US election, I cannot believe how the media and Hollywood assume they will win. They are quickly creating enemies all over the country.

    City people who have fled the Democrat destruction in the new ghettos of the inner city are being woken up by ‘protesters’, showing people that they cannot flee the black issue, which means the endemic black violence and crime issue. So many successful black people like Obama and Colin Powell and even Kamala Harris are in fact first generation. They have zero empathy and wear their colour as a cloak.

    Miners are being told that their jobs are gone and as Biden said they should ‘learn to code’, but Trump has brought back the jobs.

    Timber people were told their jobs were gone, but Trump’s tariffs on government subsidized Canadian lumber has brought back the jobs.

    Steel is being made again in America and new mills are opening, albeit thin slab casing and electric arc furnaces but it also makes steel cheaper and more competitive.

    There are just so many stories of Trump bringing back jobs in less than four years, most notably by taxes on companies who take their production overseas or who replace their American workforce with cheap immigrants.

    Fracking has made America a net exporter of oil and lowered petrol prices. So much so that Saudi Arabia is dumping to try to stop the fracking. And there are millions of jobs in America dependent on energy, jobs lost under Obama/Biden and would be lost again under Kamala/Biden.

    And his wall is working and very popular, protecting many communities.

    The most amazing example is the Democrat acceptance of the idea that in the black race battles, the police are the problem. 50% of all burglaries, 42% of all murders are black, generally black on black. Not Korean or Chinese or Vietnamese, not Mexican, not Indian, not Italian, not Irish, not immigrant generally but black on black. Of course the black people get more attention because at only 13% of the population they are most of the problem. And in case no one noticed that all the AntiFA and BLM protesters are white and all the looters are black.

    Consider just one group. There are 700,000 policemen and women in the US who now are officially the problem according to the Democrats. As in any country they do a very hard and dangerous job, very dangerous in the inner cities. A policeman is 18x more likely to be killed by a black man than a policeman kill and unarmed black man. What is happening is that the formerly Democrat aligned public service police associations are now turning to Trump for support. That’s 700,000 police with 700,000 spouses and as many children and friends will now vote Republican where as Unionists they would have voted Democrat. That’s 2-3 million votes for Trump alone.

    And the armed forces, not the Generals and hawks who want more war, but the ordinary soldiers who want peace or to fight for something meaningful, yuou can add more millions. The end of Baghdadi and Soleimani, the withdrawal from the Middle East and Obama’s “Arab Spring” devastation, the peace negotiations with Israel and the hard stance on Iran and the velvet glove approach to North Korea would meet with approval from the professional soldiers. It is their job to fight but the politicians job to make peace. Trump supports them and has forced the EU to pay for their own defence.
    And Soleimani was the real drive behind the IEDs which killed so many American soldiers and under Obama/Biden, he was untouchable and moved freely even through civilian airports. No longer. That 2,700 tons of ammonium nitrate in Beirut had only one use. And it was not agriculture.

    No one thinks WHO has done a great job, not under Chinese African puppet Tedros Adhanom. And it was Trump who slammed the doors shut, against the wails of the Democrats like Pelosi and de Blasio, who now say he did not move fast enough.

    Similarly with so many people against full term abortion. Millions who will be motivated to stop the slaughter of babies, even full term babies. And the worst of it is in the black communities. Biden’s protests that he is a Catholic are absurd. He has been refused communion and goes against the most basic Catholic belief that the life of unborn children is sacred. And as the devastating Cuban migrant said, Biden sounds like Castro did when he said he was not a Communist, he was a Catholic.

    Add up all these groups and you not only get millions who will change their vote, you get millions who will bother to vote. As extreme left Trump hater Michael Moore warned, the enthusiasm for Trump is off the scale. Despite Hollywood.

    And finally, by choosing a 79 year old incompetent do nothing candidate and his a faux Black running mate, no one is excited. Outside California and Washington, they are not liked. And there is nothing much to like. Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton have had their chance at the top and failed. Puppets Biden and Kamala will will not be given a chance to create Sanders and Warren’s socialist paradise. No one is fooled.

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      Peter C

      I agree TdeF,

      It defies belief that Hollywood and the MSM can keep up their barrage of incendiary abuse and not think that it will have an effect on voters.
      The rusted on voters may be cheered up by it all but what about the swinging voters?

      Is this a tipping point?
      https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/08/29/minnesota-democrat-mayors-endorse-donald-trump-biden-did-nothing-working-class/

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      A fantastic summary.
      :-)

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    • #
      yarpos

      “No one is fooled.” Oh I dont think so, the naive, the indoctrinated, the freesh1t army, the perepetually outraged and victimhood card players, the SJWs and the eco warriors all love them. I just hope and trust that the bulk of the American people have too much innate common sense in sufficient numbers to support the Dems nonsense and irrationality.

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      • #
        Curious George

        “No one is fooled.” Pollsters may be. I imagine what would I say to a pollster should (s)he call me. (S)he has my phone number, so I am not anonymous. Should I hint that Black lives are not the only lives that matter? Would peaceful protesters throw rocks through my windows tomorrow, then? What would I say? Are pollsters aware of the nazification of the left?

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        • #
          TdeF

          Polling is a big business. Politicians are the target market.

          The typical poll is 1,000 people and almost never 3,000. And how carefully are they chosen? How carefully are the subjects representative of the demographics? Even then, assuming a completely random representative single group, they quote a standard deviation which for 1,000 is 100/sqrt(1000) or 3.16%. And they quote figures like this! It’s just nonsense. And then say Joe Biden is leading by, 3%.

          Worse, you are looking at differences, say 51% against 49%, so 1,000 people is not enough to predict this and be sure it is not the wrong way around. Still the politicians take it as science like Climate Change, because it’s about mathematics and as most politicians are lawyers, they cannot add or multiply and percentages are a total mystery. So the polls continue.

          With Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and Scott Morrison, the pollsters were completely wrong. They haven’t improved. Michael Moore was right last time. And he is predicting a huge turnout for very popular Trump. He’s right.

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      Maptram

      Then there’s the risk, if they elect 79 year old Biden and he fails to last the four years, they get Kamala as President and a VP nominated by Kamala and voted in by both houses.

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    • #
      RickWill

      My wife had finished watching Dan’s daily update on ABC News 24 yesterday when I went in to watch football. However before flicking the switch I was somewhat surprised by this Planet America offering:
      https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/planet-america/

      It had all the appropriate Trump sniping but the views did have some balance. At 24 minutes in they bring on US guest Sam Nunberg. He gives a good perspective on where Trump is. He helped Trump win in 2016.

      30

      • #
        TdeF

        It’s superficially better than most anti Trump programs on their ABC.

        I was not happy when they posted the bit where General Flynn pleaded to guilty to lying to the FBI and they did not explain that he has now been exonerated and the fake ‘confession’ was created under duress and the threat of charging his son. This is despite the fact that the FBI knew he had not lied and said so in writing, but they wanted him prosecuted and a communist style obscure law and confession was suggested. This by no less than Biden himself. And Flynn was not read his Miranda rights or even told he was facing criminal charges when interviewed. This is all criminal behaviour by the FBI. The head of the FBI even wore a wire to trap the President when presenting the now fake Steel report.

        Like the fake FISA declarations to spy on the President, I can predict that many people will soon be in jail and the trail leads all the way to Biden and Obama. FISA enables the FBI/CIA to spy on American citizens only in cases of extreme international danger and requires a written assurance from the FBI and corroborating evidence. There was none. Everyone who signed that, including FBI Director Comey will be facing criminal charges. The FISA act contradicts the privacy requirements of the first, third, fourth and fifth Amendments. Comey and friends should get their pin stripe suits ready and orange boiler suits.

        People do not realise that in the Watergate trials, over 40 people ended up in jail. Even the Attorney General, John Mitchell.

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        • #
          TdeF

          For those who do not know, the FISA court was created in 1978 as the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court. As it is against so many part of the US constitution for domestic privacy, it was a response to foreign espionage. So to get wiretaps on their opposition, the FBI went to the court with a Clinton/Fusion funded fake report prepared for the purpose. And they knew it was fake.

          And Steele had it published as a mention in a newspaper so they could corroborate their source, while knowing all along it was the same report, same man and therefore uncorroborated, an absolute requirement. So they lied. And lied. And were able to wire tap the entire Trump Presidential campaign on behalf of the Director of the FBI. I expect the penalties for lying to the FISA court to wire tape civilians will be severe. And it at least goes back to Clinton, who was Secretary of State and presumptive President in waiting.

          “Because the 1986 Act is the most recent enactment of criminal penalties for unlawful interceptions, it is recommended that United States Attorneys’ Offices (USAOs) prosecute electronic eavesdropping violations under Title III rather than under FISA unless the purpose of the eavesdropping was gathering foreign intelligence information. ” 5 years imprisonment and $10,000 fine

          This is only starting. Expect it to accelerate if Trump and AG Barr are running the show next year. They may even make an announcement before the election, as as this featured in the last with Comey dithering on whether to charge Clinton and friends over all the missing emails from the computer in her garage.

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            TdeF

            What is amazing is that senior agent Peter Strzok when told by his men that Flynn did not lie, insisted he be charged anyway.

            The only way then to secure a conviction without evidence was to get him to confess, bypassing a trial. This they did by threatening his son. Then when he did recant his confession on appeal and was released from jail, the original judge appealed that he is now guilty of lying about lying, or perjury.

            It is unbelievable how they hate the General simply for being a friend of Trump and how many laws they broke to put him in jail. Or that a man who put himself in jail by lying under duress could now be put back in jail for lying under duress. These show trials and fake confessions under duress were supposed to only happen in Stalin’s Russia or Hitler’s Germany. This is not over either.

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      Eric V. (Kansas)

      Tdef, Thank you for having the energy to summarize the endless reasons for why we have Trump in office now and probably for 4 more years. America, on the surface, has graduated to being a bunch of upper class virtue signaling pawns that really have no idea. While underneath, there are many that are just exhausted with the talk of Covid, global warming, race relations, etc…so much it detracts from solving any real problem. I guess this is a price of freedom.

      I, as many of us do, have liberal/democratic friends and I keep trying to point out that a majority in this world is naturally good and want things to be better but when the party that claims to carry the moral compass becomes what they are fighting against, then something is wrong. I sometimes feel it is more destructive than truly evil people since you can at least identify them. That is why we have Trump.

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  • #
    joseph

    An addendum to an article by Paul Craig Roberts: “A reader makes an interesting point. Abortion is based on the claim that a woman has the right to control their own body. How is it then that when it comes to mandatory vaccination, women lose this right?”

    Here’s the article . . .
    https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/08/24/where-is-metoo-when-all-of-us-are-about-to-be-raped-by-forced-vaccination/

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      TdeF

      “There is no difference between forced vaccination and rape.” Of course there is. The list of differences would be very long. One is a violent crime and the other is a law equal for everyone.

      Vaccination will not only save your life, it will save many others you do not know. There is no intent to harm, no mens rea, evil intent.

      Society has rules for coexistence, like which side of the road for driving and what innoculations people must have to save the lives of others. Rules, like not shooting people even if you have the right to have a gun. You do have the right to get sick and die. You do not have the right to kill others.

      And if you don’t like the rules, you can always move to a mountaintop in Alaska or Tibet. Provided you are innoculated.

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      • #
        greggg

        ‘Vaccination will not only save your life’. There is a small possibility that it will. There is a bigger possibility that it will contribute to chronic health problems.
        No-one has the right to ruin people’s health by forcibly injecting them with toxic cr*p. People can make that decision for themselves.
        1200 Studies That refute Vaccine Claims (now over 1400):
        https://www.wellnessdoc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/1200-studies-The-Truth-Will-Prevail-v2.6_05-05-20.pdf

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        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Greggg,

          I am very much pro vaccination.

          That said I do not trust big pharma and have felt very concerned about the “annual” flu vax and the upcoming CV19 vax.

          There’s a bad feel about both of them especially in the wake of a couple of youngsters dying a few years ago from complications with the flu vax.

          Is testing carried out on the flu shot and will adequate testing be done on the CV19 thing? Doubtful.

          10

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          The big promoters have form going back some decades.

          A cure for anxiety and depression was marketed to take advantage of the mechanism involving serotonin and labeled SSRIs.

          It did little for anyone taking it but it became fashionable to prescribe it for young people and the result was terrible. They saw this as their big fix for chronic anxiety, but when it didn’t work they saw suicide as the only other option.

          True, this isn’t a vaccine, but it does show something about the mix of business, health and government oversight.

          I will be very wary of any CV19 vaccine.

          KK

          10

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I seem to recall reading an article whereby an interview with one person who worked on the HPV I think it was, considered it useless……not exactly a ringing endorsement.

          10

  • #

    What’s the point?

    The (not for too much longer) largest wind plant in the Country, Macarthur Wind Plant, in the heart of Dan’s Victoria – Total output since Tuesday morning ….. ZERO.

    420MW, 140 individual wind towers totally stationary. Five days now.

    That’s not a wind drought or too much wind.

    That is someone intentionally leaving the whole plant turned off.

    $1.2 Billion it cost.

    Funny how you never hear about things like this eh!

    Tony.

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    • #
      Curious George

      How much are they paid when the grid can’t accept their output?

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      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Curious George:

        Zero. So far we have avoided the UK lunacy of paying wind turbines for nothing, so unless some mentally challenged State Premier has done a backroom deal they will have had no income for 5 days.

        Will be interesting to see what happens when the low pressure system currently passing over SA gets there.

        10

        • #

          Wind generation has been up and down during those five days. Other wind plants in that area have been operating as normal, with the usual ups and downs associated with wind generation, but Macarthur has been a flat line zero.

          This isn’t an isolated case either, as something like this has happened a few times before, and in the days following the sale of a half interest in the wind plant in November last year, it was off line for eight days.

          Tony.

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          • #
            John F. Hultquist

            Thanks Tony.
            Zero, or 0.
            Historically, humans have found it hard dealing with this idea.

            a dangerous idea

            A book by Charles Seife: “Zero: The Biography of a Dangerous Idea”

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          • #
            David Maddison

            Tony, perhaps someone is making money by turning it off?

            With intermittent weather-dependent electricity generation, always follow the money trail.

            I’m just not sure how they make money from it but I’m sure they are.

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            • #

              I’m just not sure how they make money from it but I’m sure they are.

              Even if they had have only been generating power at the wind average Capacity Factor for the last five days, 29%, that’s more than a million dollars just from the sale of generated power to the Victorian grid.

              Tony.

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      TdeF

      We have had massive, devastating wind storms in Victoria, typical for spring turmoil. There are still 14,000 homes without power in Melbourne. And many without water because the sewage went into the fresh water in many suburbs. People died as Gum tree branches fell. And even now the winds this morning in Melbourne have been over 55km/hr. And the windmills are turned off? This Goldilocks wind idea, too little wind or too much wind, is as useful as night time solar.

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      • #
        TdeF

        Update. It’s down to 4,000 homes going into their fourth day without power. We did not have a hurricane.

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  • #
    Roger Knights

    Dr John Anderson cites new pro-HCQ study:

    Belgium Low-dose Hydroxychloroquine Therapy and Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: A Nationwide Observational Study of 8075 Participants (International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, 24 August)
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920303423

    Dr. John claims no-effect studies used too high a dose.
    Belgian study didn’t employ zinc. If it had, maybe its results would have been better.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uzXHnUViro&feature=share

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    • #
      Roger Knights

      PS:
      Results

      8075 patients with complete discharge data

      HCQ group, n = 4,542

      Deaths, 804, (17.7%)

      no-HCQ group, n = 3,533

      Deaths, 957 (27.1%)

      Multivariable analysis

      Mortality was lower in the HCQ group compared to the no-HCQ group

      Hazard ratio = 0.684

      Estimated direct-adjusted mortality at 40 days

      19.1% with HCQ alone

      26.5% with supportive care only

      Mortality in the HCQ group was reduced

      Both in patients diagnosed in less than 5 days and more than 5 days

      Conclusions

      Compared to supportive care only, low-dose HCQ monotherapy was independently associated with lower mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 diagnosed and treated early or later after symptom onset.

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    • #
      Graeme#4

      Big debate about HCQ going on all day in The Australian, following Terry McCrann’s article about the attempted put-down of his comments by so-called medical “experts”.

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  • #
    Greg in NZ

    Word of the day -
    hypercapnia, aka hypercarbia,
    excessive CO2 in the bloodstream,
    causes confusion, dizziness, dimmed sight, reduced hearing, tremors, narcosis, unconsciousness.
    Perhaps shouty arm-waving alarmists will simply fall asleep.

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    Rowjay

    Have been reading about the NSW Govt’s Electricity strategy here:
    https://energy.nsw.gov.au/media/1921/download
    Here is the good news about NSW’s transition from ageing but efficient centralised base load generators with a 25% backup capacity in 2012 to modern, flexible and distributed “renewable” sources:

    Distributed energy resources impact the power system in several ways. One is that they shift the demand profile. During the daytime when demand is moderate, rooftop generation is at its highest, reducing demand from the grid. In the evening at peak demand, rooftop generation has tapered off, meaning that rooftop solar has relatively less impact at reducing peak demand pressures on the system.

    Distributed energy resources can also result in distribution network congestion, as power is exported back to networks that were not designed for two-way power flow. There are also issues with voltage and frequency control and the ways in which distributed energy responds to system disturbances. Compounding these issues, AEMO does not have ‘visibility’ of distributed energy resources, making it difficult to measure the consumption and export from rooftop solar and balance supply and demand in the system. These impacts make coordinating the integration of distributed energy resources a major challenge in managing the energy transformation.

    Here is even better news about NSW energy security up to 2025:

    Over the course of the 2020s, NSW is projected to experience its tightest reserve conditions in 2023-24 after the Liddell Power Station closes in April 2023. This tight reserve condition is partially mitigated by the QNI and VNI (poles and wires) upgrades. Other committed projects that will increase supply by 2023-24 include Mount Piper power station upgrades (60 MW by December 2021), Bayswater power station upgrades (100 MW by December 2022), and firmed capacity from committed wind and solar farms (115 MW by 2023). Figure 12, below, provides the projected outlook for the EST out to 2030-31.

    https://rowjayinoz.wordpress.com/2020/08/29/nsw-energy-security-outlook/

    We should all be impressed by the 115 MW of firmed power offered by wind and solar generators to cover the potential power shortfalls, and the reliance on more poles and wires to solve the problem.

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    Yonniestone

    David Evans on Skytv Outsiders now.

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    RickWill

    I have been perusing the NSW Bushfire Inquiry report.
    https://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/assets/dpc-nsw-gov-au/publications/NSW-Bushfire-Inquiry-1630/Final-Report-of-the-NSW-Bushfire-Inquiry.pdf

    There are no recommendations for more wind generators or even solar panels but the BoM has done a tremendous job in getting over their message that Australia is warming beyond anything previously experienced. The devil CO2 gets a few mentions, for example:

    Some of the important contributing factors can be linked to changes in climatic conditions associated with increased carbon dioxide emissions. The higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere affect the risk of some conditions conducive to fire occurring.

    There are two graphs on page 82 that got my attention. There both relate to the Forest Fire Rating Index. This is a very simple index that most Australians are aware of because there are coloured index signs on roadways as you enter forested areas. A consequence of the Black Saturday fires was to add a 6th level “Catastrophic” beyond McArthurs original 5 levels. The trend is clearly upward.

    The charts on page 82 show the trend in FFDI in NSW for the number of spring days with FFDI above 25 – equating to at least Very High fire danger. The second chart provides the first day in the year when the FFDI exceeds 25. The trend is clearly downward – meaning earlier in the year.

    When I studied process quality control I was taught to look for statistical significant shifts in the process. That often used process control charts. Casting that learning over the two trends rings a bell with me. Something appears to change around year 2000. If you look at the first chart, the trend is down till 2000 then jumps upward. If you look at the second chart, the data jumps around quite a lot until after 2000 when it does not move much from year-to-year but is all very low. To me this appears to reflect a measurement system change after 2000 – knowing the reliability of BoM data it would be interesting to get behind the numbers but that would require more effort than the benefit of any insight.

    One aspect that comes to mind is the influence of electronic temperature and humidity measurement – when were these devices rolled out?

    None of it matters from the perspective of the report recommendations because there is really nothing more than token acknowledgement to the Church of Climate Change. There is potentially some waste resulting from efforts to better understand climate change but, if that exists, it is worthy effort.

    The report could justify its effort simplify if the first recommendation is implemented and is effective:

    Government establish a central accountability mechanism to track implementation of recommendations from bush fire-related reviews and inquiries and consider expanding this to other policy areas.

    Something that has not been achieved so far with the countless fire inquiries over the years. We already have reports in Victoria that CV19 has prevented controlled burns in 2020. So excuse already in the bag.

    I believe recommendation 20 is in need of a broader perspective:

    a) support local councils and partner agencies to implement more comprehensive hazard
    reduction at a local level around towns/cities, communities and local infrastructure assets, and provide incentives for communities to organise themselves to prioritise and implement local hazard reduction initiatives. This will involve a suite of hazard reduction techniques depending on the landscape including prescribed burning, clearing, mowing, and mechanical treatments, and easy disposal of green waste into processors turning it into bioenergy or biofuels

    To think that the fuel burnt in the 2019/20 summer could power the entire Australian economy for 2 years should provide the incentive to look at forest litter as a valuable fuel resource. My own example, if I use gas heating to heat my house it costs around $1/hr to run the central heater. I can selectively heat the house to a more comfortable level using the wood burner consuming wood easily collected from my property and surrounds. I can store the wood I need for the winter in a small area and collect it throughout the year when pruning trees to collecting wood litter.

    I think viewing forest litter as a valuable fuel resource could be a significant opportunity. Sure there are challenges in collecting it but then there are greater challenges in conducting controlled burns. There is only ONE renewable source of energy presently known to mankind – managed forests. Australians view the forest litter as a disaster waiting to happen. Imagine a paradigm shift where it is viewed as a precious fuel resource. Finland is one country on a very short list that makes good use of the waste from its forestry industry.

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      Kalm Keith

      The last two paragraphs carry an important message.

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      Graeme#4

      When less than 2% of eucalyptus forests are burnt every year, and folks continue to build houses “among the gum trees”, the States will continue to suffer large destructive bushfires with significant property loss, and any FDDI modelling won’t change this.

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      Annie

      Something I have been mulling over for some time: wondering why some way of clearing forest undergrowth and the rubbish off trees cannot be devised that can perhaps be processed into pellets (as per Drax) and used in local units to produce electricity, or just chipping the waste wood and using that. Better local than on the scale of Drax, shipping pellets across the Atlantic and by rail through England!
      Two benefit; hazard reduction and local power! Is that just too naive of me?

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        Peter C

        Possibly,
        Beautiful idea and it solves two problems at one time!

        I think that an issue is the low energy density of Forrest undergrowth, which would be expensive to harvest for fuel. On the other hand it is expensive to fight the subsequent fires, so maybe there is an opportunity.

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        Graeme#4

        Not a bad idea Annie. If we could somehow collect all the forest litter and use it as fuel in high-temp incinerators to dispose of our rubbish including plastics, it would be a win-win for Australia.

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        Chad

        Annie
        August 30, 2020 at 8:51 pm ·
        Something I have been mulling over for some time: wondering why some way of clearing forest undergrowth and the rubbish off trees cannot be devised that can perhaps be processed into pellets (as per Drax) and used in local units to produce electricity,

        That is the THEORY Annie.
        The reality is that in a State Forrest, or National Park type of natural forrested area, access is seriously inhibited, preventing efficient, or even practical , collection of significant deadfall or prunings. Huge amounts of access tracks for heavy equipment would be required, and much of the steep, deep ravine areas ( key fire problem areas ).. would still be impossible to manage.
        You can see how at odds with the concept of a natural forrest that would be .
        The effective cost of fuel ( $$/Mwh ) would be many times that of coal or gas.
        Drax and similar biomass fueled generators are supplied from fully felled , managed, forrest growth.

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    Yonniestone

    Dan Andrews on News just now saying the numbers are still not good enough to consider relaxing Covid restrictions for Victorians, now proposes a long slow drawn out process of monitoring and restriction guidelines.

    Sorry sunshine you’re done as any sort of leader, I’m not going to stand by and watch people of your ilk ruin my state and nation, get ready for public disobedience on a large scale.

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      RickWill

      I got one of the regular notes from my Federal MP through the week. I took the opportunity to ask what were the State lIberals doing:

      Jason
      How about you ask your Liberal colleagues in the Victorian parliament to put forward a no-confidence motion in the Andrews Government. They are all clowns in charge of a circus. They need to be shown the door and replaced with competent people not driven by distractions. Putting diversity at the forefront of selecting security guards for hotel quarantine rather than using people trained in quarantine practices shows how silly Dan/s bunch really are.

      Dan asking for endless power to minutely control our lives shows how immoral he is. It is time for a new broom that can clear up this mess.

      Rick

      It surprised me that I got a reply:

      Dear Rick,

      I’ll pass that onto our State colleagues, I must assure you they are doing everything they can to be an effective opposition,

      Kind regards,

      Lenny Shepherd
      Electorate Officer
      Office of Jason Wood MP | Federal Member for La Trobe

      Unlike replies I have received from Craig Kelly, this reply wa not from the man but still good to have a personal reply from the office.

      I thing Dan has run his course.

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      yarpos

      The disobedience is already happening. We live NE of Melbourne and cars parked at holiday homes , highway traffic and town business have all ramped up this weekend. None of that activity is fom the locals.

      I thought the death of a curfew runner under a tree 60kms fron home might have given people some pause , but it appears not and the police are so thin on the ground in the regions they are unlikely to get caught.

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    RickWill

    Who installed rooftop solar in South Australia in 2019/20? And which electricity consumers in SA stopped consuming?

    We are not even into spring and the demand in the SA network was under 500MW on Saturday 29th August. I doubt demand will go negative this year but it will be low.

    One of the Port Augusta synchronous condensers is on site but I do not know if it is operational yet.

    It remains interesting times in SA because there is some possibility of areas in South Australia having to be blacked out because they are producing too much power. It could be that all rooftop installations will be stopped until centrally controlled inverters are available.

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    PeterS

    Outsides today was really good at interviewing several people who are exposing what is going wrong on a number of fronts. People like Malcolm Roberts of ON are typical of who should be supported by the voting public if the voters bothered to use even half their brains when deciding who to preference. It’s really sad to see our nation being destroyed by ignorant political leaders who get away with it unpunished after each election. The people have the power to put s stop to it by voting for people like Roberts to force a hung parliament and drag one of the major parties kicking and screaming back to common sense. Instead we keep giving power to the majors and expect things to change for the better yet in fact the opposite keeps happening. At some point things will get so bad the people will wake up but of course it will be too late by then and significant lasting damage would have been unleashed.

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    Hanrahan

    Where was all the CO2 before the coal beds were laid down in the carboniferous era? Earth had existed for hundreds of millions of years before this.

    IF it existed as atmospheric CO2 then why didn’t this Earth “tip” into the fiery hell we are promised now? It must have been cool enough for vegetation to grow. How is that possible?

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      RickWill

      The plants grew until they starved themselves.

      As humans restore the CO2 balance by burning tree fossils, we can see how the trees are taking over again. Three killed by falling trees in Victoria this week. Burning trees killed 34 people in Australia last summer and the smoke from burning trees killed 137. Burning trees have so far killed 86 people in California in 2020.

      So trees are a bit like a virus. They do what they are programmed to do. They do it relentlessly until they run out of food; atmospheric CO2.

      I have a wisteria growing over a trellis in my front yard. If a car is parked under it for a day or more in summer it will end up with the wisteria taking hold. It literally grows before your eyes. Once trees took hold, they consumed all of the CO2 to their starvation level in just 100M years. That is the nature of exponential growth. The surviving trees and grasses adapted to survive on starvation level of CO2 – the “perfect weather” level the world had in 1850.

      Beware trees – they will take over the planet if we keep feeding them on souped up atmosphere.

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        yarpos

        On one stretch of road had considerable effort made recently over many weeks, with closures every day from 9:30 to 3:30 while dangerous tees where cleared. First windstorm we have after the work and someone gets killed by a falling tee.

        The MSM has completly avoided talking about the couple in the car who appear to have been from Parkdale and the Mornington Peninsula and looked like they were doing a pre curfew runner to the countryside.

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        Kalm Keith

        That’s confusing Rick. Are you being sarcastic?

        Currently 98% of the “available” CO2 on Earth is in that gigantic CO2 turbulator called Ocean.

        The other 2% is in the atmosphere.

        Of that 2% only about 4% is of human origin.

        So, for atmospheric CO2 the levels are controlled by the oceans and human origin CO2 is 0.08% of the world’s interacting CO2.

        KK

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      el gordo

      We didn’t tip into a fiery hell like Venus because a Martian sized object collided with earth and when the dust settled, life on this planet was assured.

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    MP

    The video is on what is happening to the US food supply, piece by piece.
    He is about the grand solar minimum and its effects on food but since the Kungflu has looked into that effect on food supplies.
    They are going to make you buy and eat your own garbage, lucky us!

    17 mins long

    https://youtu.be/s_usIkrVQwE

    Stopped on Their ABC a year or two ago while surfing past because a lady in a white jacket is always worth a listen.
    She was a scientist from the CSIRO talking about a grant they had received for breeding insects for food. Her final words were “the UN has stated everyone on the planet will be eating insect protein in the next four years” or words to that effect.

    Its Sunday so God bless. (still think you got the day wrong)

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    beowulf

    A glimmer of hope from Britain. I hope that glimmer makes its way to Oz.

    A bill is about to be introduced into parliament to decriminalise non-payment of the mandatory £157.50 pa BBC licence fee. This would effectively make the fee optional and would also mean abolishing the BBC in its present form. We mustn’t get too excited just yet since there is confusion in the UK media concerning whether this is an actual government bill or simply a private members bill which must be selected by the Speaker for debate before it will even be introduced into the House, so it may be dead in the water before it has begun, but a “senior Whitehall source” has said that it is a goer. The BBC Charter doesn’t end until 2027, so technically the organisation can’t be scrapped until then, but its funding model is not set in stone.

    In the latest survey by The Mail:
    • 65% of Brits want the BBC TV licence fees to be abolished (in an Express poll it was 97%)
    • 77% say that the fee should be scrapped for the over-75s (until recently they were exempt, but the BBC reckons it is strapped for cash as the young abandon it in droves for online services and as a projected 3 million become unemployed and unable to pay up)
    • 85% say that over-75s who don’t pay should not get a criminal record as is now the case
    • 67% say online TV has made the BBC less relevant
    • 19% still think the BBC is right wing!!!

    This comes after the outgoing Director General Lord Hall called for the licence fee to be made mandatory across the board as a household tax, rather than just for those who are deemed to watch the BBC. He wanted the tax to even apply to people who do not own a television. He’s a comedian too:
    “If you want to have something good, a public service available to all, then that has to be funded by all, not by subscription or behind some paywall.”

    Recently the BBC increased the fee, then the over-75s were brought back into the scheme as well. The BBC said “fairness” was behind their decision. At least the blind and those in residential care are currently entitled to 50% off the annual £154.50 ($280 AU) TV licence fee. That must be a comfort to them. I kid you not.

    Boris has previously mooted abolishing the fee, but like everything Boris does, his words are louder than his actions. From February:
    “We are not bluffing on the licence fee,” a Downing Street source told the newspaper.
    “We are having a consultation and we will whack it. It has to be a subscription model. They’ve got hundreds of radio stations, they’ve got all these TV stations and a massive website. The whole thing needs massive pruning back.
    “They should have a few TV stations, a couple of radio stations and massively curtailed online presence and put more money and effort into the World Service, which is part of its core job.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/02/16/we-will-whack-it-boris-govt-tackles-bbc-plan-scrap-tv-licence/

    All the fee-defaulters are clogging up the court system too as the BBC pursues them relentlessly. Recently they employed an extra 800 “collection agents” to harass fee defaulters. Courts can impose a £1,000 fine plus costs for non-payment which can become a prison sentence if people do not pay. Between 2015 and 2018, 91 people — disproportionately women from low income families — were jailed for non-payment. Over 120,000 people were fined last year at an average of £170. (£20.4 million in fines)

    The BBC estimates that it will lose £1 billion annually through decriminalisation, but that’s assuming most people still want to pay — which is a measure of how popular they think they are in their little BBC bubble brains. If the BBC is defunded and forced to go subscription-only, it might start a chain reaction among its smaller clones like the ABC with any luck, but I won’t hold my breath.

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    beowulf

    If you thought ABC salaries were obscene, take a gander at the BBC equivalents of some who might be known here in Oz:
    • £610,000 or £900,000 (depending upon the source) — Graham Norton
    • £300,000 Brian Cox — for his occasional, part-time pseudo-science
    • £400,000 Fiona Bruce – Antiques Roadshow presenter etc
    • £450,000 Andrew Marr — political presenter
    • £750,000 Jeremy Vine — political presenter
    • £1.6 million — Chris Evans — TV and radio presenter apparently
    • £1.8 million ($3.26 million AU) for Gary Linekar to present football highlights on Match of the Day — such an onerous job
    These are numbers that would make even the notorious Kerry O’Brien blush as he flew down from Byron to Sydney to do his 2 minutes to camera then flew back again once per week for a reported $300,000 plus per year to front 4 Corners.
    Except for Linekar and Evans, these are 2017 figures.

    Pensioners and low income families must be harassed and criminalised to support these leeches and their army of cronies.

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    DOC

    Malcolm Roberts was on the Outsiders this morning, and will no doubt feature on the shortened version this evening. He reported I believe it was on a Senate Inquiry and recited CSIRO answers
    to that Inquiry. Basically, the CSIRO pulled out of saying it had scientifically acceptable papers backing Anthropogenic Global Warming. His observation was the CSIRO work currently is produced according to government policy of the day. I am working from memory here and will watch the program again this evening to more closely listen to what he says. However, the bottom line I gathered from Roberts is that government policy , not CSIRO science, is driving this destruction of Australia’s energy system. This program is a must hear, or perhaps Hansard reports it.

    The real question is, why are governments of either persuasion in Australia forcing this destruction upon the country, in spite of the used-to-be premier science organisation not able to provide evidence that necessitates that destruction and everything else that comes from it?

    This is the question that is fundamental. It must be explained. Surely there is more than just the disgusting, distorting self-interest of chasing votes at stake here? What overwhelming knowledge do politicians have that drives the democracies, almost worldwide, to this point? Trump obviously hasn’t heard of it! Is it the UN, along with national governments chasing globalisation (which has failed middle classes; made them poorer) which, again, Trump has rejected and moved to shore up everyone gaining an advantage from a nation’s economic progress.

    The entire question of the science involved in AGW must be opened up. Politicians must be forced to stand up and defend their decisions that are wrecking this country. When their own scientific source is unable (under oath?) to defend that science, then the entire matter becomes a political fraud such as never seen before.It is worse if our government is bending a knee to a foreign agency, exclusive of Australian interests.

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    Peter C

    Sudsidies (sic) paid to households with solar panels will be slashed as part of an overhaul of Western Australia’s green energy incentive scheme.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/subsidies-paid-to-houses-with-solar-panels-to-be-slashed/vi-BB18vstw?ocid=msedgntp

    Going forward new solar installations will earn 3c/kWh during the middle of the day (compared with 7c/kWh) for existing household solar. However if they can produce power between 3pm and 9pm they will get 10c/kWh. Good luck with that!

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      TdeF

      Why stop there? Pay them 10c/kwh for power from 3pm to 4am. Night time solar is almost as good as our Victorian wind farms but more predictable.

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        Peter C

        :-)
        I think the idea is to pay for the evening peak power requirement.

        I would go further but offer nothing for power outside the required period, or maybe negative if the power is not required. Wind plants can turn off when not required but more difficult for household solar.

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      Graeme#4

      My panels in Perth are still producing up to about 5 pm, and it’s not summer yet. Currently averaging at around 2/3 of max summer output.

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        Lucky

        Perth, winter, my solar panels generate at about half the summer rate.

        I have 12 years worth of data.
        For a nominal 1kW set, the moving average generation is 1,500kWh pa.
        I make that about 2.5% of nameplate.

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          Peter C

          Good news Lucky,

          I calculate that your solar panels are producing 17% of nameplate.

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            Lucky

            Thank you Peter C- what a great site this is, if you post up some rushed calcs someone comes on quick with corrections.

            Yes, for a 1kW panel, 1,500kWh pa,
            if generating 1kW round the clock = 1 x 24 x 365 = 8,760 kWh
            Percentage of nameplate = 1500 / 8760 = 17%

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            Rowjay

            For your info, capacity factors for all east coast solar generators registered with the AEMO as follows:

            June 2020 – 13.4%
            July 2020 – 15.4%

            August numbers soon…

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        Chad

        Graeme#4
        August 30, 2020 at 8:33 pm ·
        My panels in Perth are still producing up to about 5 pm, and it’s not summer yet

        But at What % of max capacity ?

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    Robber

    Weekend electricity sale.
    Over the weekend, SA wholesale price was negative $24/MWhr on Sat and negative $8/MWhr on Sun. Vic enjoyed some warmer weather and some surplus wind from SA to average $8/MWhr.
    Yet last Monday both States were above $120/MWhr.
    Is this any way to run an essential service?

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    Peter C

    Dr Nick Coatesworth should be Sacked.

    Rowan Dean and the Outsiders call out Dr Nick Coatesworth ( the National Deputy Chief Medical Officer) for anti Hydroxychloroquine bias and Political interference
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KH71718_x_0

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    el gordo

    Extreme weather is a sign of global cooling.

    ‘Temperatures struggling to reach double figures will end a month of ‘extreme’ weather, which has included two storms, a heatwave, and the UK’s hottest August day for 17 years.

    ‘The Met Office said that although the bank holiday has been ‘unseasonably cool’, the low temperatures are not expected to break any records. The chilly spell is in stark contrast to the bank holiday this time last year which was the hottest on record, with the mercury hitting 33.2C in London.’

    Metro.co.UK

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    Slithers

    Divide and Conquer.

    Since ancient times this has always been the way. The consequences have never been good, for either those that chose to conquer or those who were conquered. Civilizations have risen and fallen many times, all those ups and downs caused by that simple rule. Divide and Conquer.
    We are currently entering a significant polarization of cultures and a conflict of interests that use divide and conquer as a means to an end.
    There are many players in this. Most are misguided fools; some are just plain stupid. Others have blood on their hands, direct or more frequently indirectly.
    Consider a few facts.
    The CO2 emitted by human burning of fossil fuels represents 0.08% of the total CO2 that exists as free matter. Way less than that if you include biomass and mineral mass. Yet CO2 is deemed to be driving the earths climate over centuries at levels far beyond the error margins of the math used to determine that conclusion.
    Consider ‘Black Lives Matter’
    The property damage costs alone would have given any surviving family member millions of $ a year in compensation, yet the useful fools continue to destroy.
    Every where I look, I see dissent.
    From the most simple example : _
    We have a coffee machine provided by the organization that runs the aged care facility where I reside.
    I have been reporting that it needed water for five days now and yes, some water has been put in its reservoir. BUT why do I have to keep reporting that it is indicating that the water needs replenishing.
    Because ‘That Not in My Job Description! That’s his job not mine!
    The good Samaritan could have said exactly the same thing and walked right on by.
    I am Not a Christian. I lean towards heathen or philistine. I do pray to what I consider my star. I do try very hard to live by the examples written by wise men ages ago ‘The Parables’. Do unto others as you would have them do unto you!
    /Rant over.

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    OriginalSteve

    Hi Jo

    Of interest:

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bronsonstocking/2020/08/29/it-looks-like-a-lot-of-those-positive-covid-tests-should-have-been-negative-n2575305

    “According to The New York Times, potentially 90 percent of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 have such insignificant amounts of the virus present in their bodies that such individuals do not need to isolate nor are they candidates for contact tracing. Leading public health experts are now concerned that overtesting is responsible for misdiagnosing a huge number of people with harmless amounts of the virus in their systems.

    “”Most of these people are not likely to be contagious, and identifying them may contribute to bottlenecks that prevent those who are contagious from being found in time,” warns The Times.

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    Chad

    The New Space Race .
    ABC (sorry !) 4 Corners on Aug 31st..(now on iView) aired this doco titled as above, detailing the current and future situation for space technology.
    Interesting for anyone with a concern for the future.
    Basicly, the next major world conflict will be fought and won in space..
    the stakes are enormous and the technology advancing rapidly.
    The new generation of reuseable launch vehicles, minaturised satelite instrumentation and weapons, with little or no “rules” to dictate or limit what can be done.
    Tens of thousands of new satelites are planned for launch into orbit , for communication,monitoring, measurement, and defence purposes.
    As launches become easier, cheaper and much more frequent, the pace of development will accellerate enormously. First objective is ability to disable any enemy ( or unwanted) space capability…second objective is the race to secure territory on the Moon… south pole is favorite for 24hr daylight and potential water (ice) resources, which can form a base for fuel conversion .
    Generally a facinating glimpse of the possible near future .
    Worth the 45 mins to get a fell for it.

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    Slithers

    Its not in my Job description to do that, Syndrome.

    Here is a simple example of the above, well it does involve siome technical knowledge which I will do my best to explain.
    The aged care facility where I have resided for the last 15 or so years has instituted a work order process to provide cost and performance metrics for maintenance problems.
    This Facility is over 30 years old, so is aging and in constant need of minor maintenance being carried out.
    Now I have been the owner/occupier of fifteen properties over the last sixty years. During that time I have experienced various plumbing problems to do with waste water. Intimately experienced to the level of descending sewerafg drains to the depth of ten feet to find out why they were blocked! I therefore claim to have some real working experience of how drainage systems work.
    The Facility is over 30 years old. From time to time tree roots invade the sewer system and partially block the outflow.
    This has the following minor effect.
    At Distance ‘X’ the tree roots have produced a minor blockage.
    Water discharged is slowly leached away.
    Solids build up.
    Scene set for me to wash the dirty dishes…..
    I run the hot tap and almost fill the sink. I was the dishes. I remove the plug and let the dirty water escape.
    ‘Ok With me so far?’
    So the water has to try exit my sink but there is a semi-permanent blockage so that exit is slow, Minutes go by.
    The weight of the water from my sink compresses the air in the sewer. Eventually the weight of water is less than the trapped air pressure and the drain erupts in bubbles as the air/water pressure tries to equalize.
    This violent activity becomes too much for the partial blockage which let’s go. And the sewer quickly empties as if no blockage had ever existed. Seconds later the tree roots reposition and a partial blockage is reformed.
    Waiting for me to wash the dishes the next day.
    Unfortunately, I am not the only one washing the dishes.
    I approach the maintenance guy and tell him ‘my drains are playing up again.’
    He tells me ‘ring the 1800 number and they will raise a work order.’
    The receptionist who will get that work order request if I chose to raise one is sitting right there and has heard every word I have said.
    Nothing happens and the partial blockage slowly gets worse.
    I refuse to ring the 1800 number to get the maintenance man to come use a plunger for a minute on my sink & drain.
    Eventually the drain system is fully blocked and the dish water won’t drain away. And so is the dish water from the other eight units above me. Carpets get ruined. The plumber gets called in. They determine that they have to rip up the drains and relay them. Just a three-week disruption, where we cannot use our sinks.
    I hold up my hands and tell the business manager, ‘It was not my job to get the maintenance guy to use the plunger three months ago! Ask the receptionist, I did tell him that the drains needed some attention.’
    Cost of initial contact a few cents. Cost of 1800 call and work order and subsequent implementation over one hundred dollars.
    Current estimated cost $25,000.
    Cost to residents and replacement carpets, not yet assessed.
    Modern Business practise at work.
    The Business manager and Maintenance worker are both university trained .

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