JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks


Advertising


Australian Speakers Agency



GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper



Archives

Books

Tuesday Open Thread

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.2/10 (12 votes cast)
Tuesday Open Thread, 9.2 out of 10 based on 12 ratings

97 comments to Tuesday Open Thread

  • #
    Matheus Carvalho

    Hey, let’s flood The Conversation with requests to stop their blocking of comments that don’t follow the CAGW narrative:

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/H8GGYSF

    100

    • #

      yeah that will work

      12

    • #
    • #
    • #

      and just to help out with your naughtiness. Don’t just click on that link as it will help them to trace and remove your survey. Instead copy the link and paste it into a new browser window.

      32

    • #
      Bulldust

      Done – my suggestion

      Lifting the censorship of unpopular narratives or opinions. Opinions stated politely should not be censored simply because the editors/moderators disagree with them. The whole point of academia is to challenge ideas, not conform to a dogma agreed by a handful of gatekeepers.

      140

      • #

        further suggestion. Don’t answer all the preceding questions negatively or in a way that indicates you don’t read The conversation. Why would they take notice of an opinion from someone who does not even read it or care about it?

        43

  • #
    Bulldust

    MedCram has another good video – discussing virus versus host factors affecting T-cell and antibody levels & symptomless cases:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i536vS3z3e8

    Also includes experiment with hamsters in masks… no I am not making this up.

    40

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Cascading fallacies in climate risk assessment”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/10/cascading-fallacies-in-climate-risk-assessment/

    Applied to Australia in 3, 2, 1 – -

    40

  • #
    AZ1971

    How true is this report from RT.com?
    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/497095-melbourne-australia-covid-lockdown/

    Jo, you can make fun of the U.S. all you want over our horrid response to the coronavirus pandemic … but we have, in our Constitution, enshrined certain rights to privacy INSIDE OUR OWN HOMES that prevents such draconian and intrusive violations of common decency.

    I’ll take an immutable right to privacy over coronavirus-free status every. day. of. the. week.

    70

    • #
      OrignalSteve

      Golly …reminds me of how you saw Chinese authorities dragging people out of homes….

      Covid is now no longer about the virus – its about a full blown attempted marxist takeover of Victoriastan.

      I have been saying for a while – this virus is a bit lame, but it never really was about the virus – its been used as the catalyst for a Chinese-style lockdown and removal of liberties under the trojan horse of martial law masquerading as a “medical emergency”.

      Troops on the street & a curfew = martial law.

      The other thing is that everyone is placed into a torturous Stress position, then divide and conquer by keeping everyone treating everyone else as a pariah. Hitler put informers in the huts in concentration camps so people couldnt even talk freely. The current situation is a form of mental torture.

      This video is brilliant at putting it in perspective.

      https://youtu.be/2deFTjEDgGA

      see also https://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/lockdowns-great-reset

      https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/ ( World Economic Forum )

      “The opportunity

      As we enter a unique window of opportunity to shape the recovery, this initiative will offer insights to help inform all those determining the future state of global relations, the direction of national economies, the priorities of societies, the nature of business models and the management of a global commons.

      https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/08/07/delingpole-australian-state-goes-full-coronafascist/

      https://mises.org/wire/diseases-are-bad-government-forced-shutdowns-are-often-worse
      – How is the pandemic outcomes any different to horrible bread queues in Soviet Russia?

      “Government’s Main Strategy: Destroy Commerce

      “The main concern for those responsible for healthcare is not the absolute number of deaths, but “flattening the curve,” i.e., stretching out the frequency of cases of infection.

      “The model may be correct, all else remaining equal, but it ignores the extent of the damage that the control measures entail. We already have a foretaste of that. In addition to drastic restrictions on international air traffic and the partial closure of borders, there are a whole series of measures that intervene deeply in the everyday lives of citizens and are aimed at isolating everyone as much as possible.

      “With the current focus, the authorities ignore the side effects of their measures. State agencies are obsessed with smoothing the curve and thereby ignore the fact that pursuing this goal almost exclusively will bring more collateral damage than the possible cost of the epidemic itself.

      130

      • #
        OrignalSteve

        Or just this – 9 mins.

        Clear & rational thinkers only.

        https://youtu.be/2deFTjEDgGA

        30

        • #
          Greg in NZ

          It was fun while it lasted:

          Auckland ‘Super’ City to be locked-up to Level 3 as of midday Wednesday, with the rest of the country to Level 2, after four members of a family in South Auckland tested positive today, or some such excuse.

          Am supposed to be driving up there Thursday to drop a buddy off at the domestic airport, yet there’s talk of roadblocks. Roadblocks?!? Guess that’s one way of banning the election (in the next 5 weeks). Stay tuned…

          60

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Yeah…funny how victoria ( effectively a failing communist state ) has a suspended democracy.

            And now “The Pretty Communist” ( as has been called ) may suspend NZ elections…..

            I see a pattern emerging…is this the real game?…the overthrow of democracies using the covid lie as the trojan horse?

            Bring on Ivermectin to end this sick game…

            80

      • #
        PeterS

        As I keep saying, lock downs don’t work long term, they are only a very short term action to give us time to do other things, such as equip hospitals, train people on how to minimise the risk, etc..

        40

    • #
  • #
    Dennis

    Classic State to Federal to State buck passing underway with COVID-19, but don’t be fooled, Premiers and the State Governments that lead have greater powers and responsibilities for internal affairs and governance than Federal does.

    Example, age care responsibilities are shared, Federal via Centrelink funding and other matters, but State via State Health and others. States close State Borders, State Public Schools closed, businesses forced not to trade by State regulations, social distancing enforced by State Police and infringement notices, and so on.

    Council Of Australian Governments (COAG) was a forum of States, Territories and Federal governments, collective decision making, Federal funding applications from States.

    National Leaders Cabinet replacing COAG is a new forum and not a Federal dominated cabinet in the parliamentary government cabinet model, only in part, with none of the binding decision making, cabinet solidarity and confidentiality. In other words, the Premiers are not bound by any decisions.

    The Commonwealth of Australia is a Federation of States formed by agreement between former British Colonies, and the related Constitution. State powers on internal governance exceeds Federal but Federal has no say in most State affairs, they have sovereignty.

    30

    • #
      Dennis

      It is also fact that both Federal and State governments have often ignored Constitutional Laws to sign United Nations Treaties and Agreements without reference to we the people, and after signing created Federal and State legislation and regulations to proceed with implementation, consider Paris and Kyoto UN IPCC Agreements and worse, Agenda 21 now Agenda 30.

      And as AZ1971 alludes to, the Constitution should protect us from excesses of government but for a challenge to be brought to the High Court of Australia is a very expensive legal exercise, as Clive Palmer is involved in right now challenging the closer of State Borders.

      Too many of our elected representatives have been either naively ignorant of Constitutional Laws or blatantly ignored them.

      We the people have been badly let down and both sides of Parliament must share responsibility for not acting in our best interets as we elected the to do.

      80

    • #
      Dennis

      Sovereignty

      Sovereignty is the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory, sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme legitimate authority over some polity. In international law, sovereignty is the exercise of power by a state.

      20

      • #
        Jojodogfacedboy

        This shows why your voting for change is a farce.
        Also, all these ministries that are created, have permanent jobs and are transferred from party to party when they are voted out. None of them have lost their jobs, just the voted politicians.

        00

  • #
    Retired Now

    I’m rethinking my ideas about over-reactive state power given the Victorian covid response that is apparently now a fully implemented police state .

    Seeing videos of Victorian police attempting to justify smashing car windows because people won’t provide evidence of where they lived – and videos purporting to be from Melbourne with police demanding identification papers I have to wonder if we are going into a communist/fascist state here in Australia. There were also claims made about people being out of the house on two occasions on a particular day hours apart, that obviously was not being about permitted exercise. I had just come in from my second 20 minute run of the day when I saw TV statements about that.

    So what do other normally law-abiding, sensible Aussies think about what is happening? Reading comments above we do seem to have either ignorance or blatant ignoring of constitutional issues, normal laws, ordinary social conventions. We self isolated for 4 weeks when we didn’t know what was happening, wore masks & disposable gloves etc. But I’m concerned about how we can possibly open up the country. I’m also concerned about the impact of isolation on vulnerable people. I am also bored, very bored & lonely too cos the powers that be decided to close down the place where I socialised because covid fear trumped social isolation impacts & I probably have more inner skills than most my age.

    120

    • #

      Seeing videos of Victorian police attempting to justify smashing car windows because people won’t provide evidence of where they lived – and videos purporting to be from Melbourne with police demanding identification papers I have to wonder if we are going into a communist/fascist state here in Australia.

      that is not a new power and the video you saw related to another criminal matter for which the woman was stopped and followed her refusal to cooperate (again) under precovid laws… providing the link would prove otherwise.

      42

    • #
      robert rosicka

      If people refused to wind down their window or get out of a locked car to avoid arrest everyone would be doing it and I’ve only seen one recent case of window smashing and it was more than justified.
      As for our socialist republic of Victoriastan and Covid , if only we embraced the 10 minute test that’s now available and either the Hydroxy combo or the Ivermectin combo .

      72

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Retired Now:
      Give a politician an excuse to ‘exercise’ more power is like catnip to a cat. They lose all sense of perceptive and normal commonsense. This is just what the bureaucrats want, as they expect that their enhanced control will continue after “the emergency” has gone. In this case they have a problem in that their ‘policy’ won’t work, as isolating people and preventing entry from other States or countries only works as long as the Covid virus (and similar) are eliminated there. But that is impossible so any ‘opening up of the State’ will result in more infections, more shutdowns and more public resentment and eventually a revolt.

      NZ is a classic case as they have ‘eliminated’ the virus with very large economic effects as perhaps 10% of their GDP and over 8% of employment dependant on tourism. The current PM will no doubt ‘win’ the coming election (due shortly) but what then? Open up the country/ get more infections/ close down the country/ Rinse & Reset. Not just Covid as ‘ordinary’ rhino/flu viruses will find their way into the country with less and less natural immunity. I don’t see her seeing out her new term of office.

      60

    • #
      Andy

      Hi RN,

      just going to piggy-back off your post. As an aside I may spend far too much time reading about the attempted destruction of daily life and society in the US (as reported) leading into the Presidential elections. However, abuse of power (or if I was kind, the misinterpretation of the use of such powers, if they exist) in Victoria at the minute has piqued my interest.

      The linked story concerning the idea that Premier Andrews could be allegedly jailed for workplace deaths based on the Victorian government’s ban on the use of HCQ rang a bell when I came across the other linked article concerning a similar ban in the US.

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-07/coronacheck-craig-kelly-daniel-andrews-hydroxychloroquine-covid/12530576

      In this version of reality the Governor could be taken to task for making a medical decision without being a member of the medical profession. Said Gov is currently appearing to cover his arse.

      https://uncoverdc.com/2020/08/06/idaho-governor-brad-little-seeking-immunity-from-civil-liability/

      Open question; how is it possible in either case to stop medicos from medicining?

      Fark,

      Andy

      30

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Could it be worth investigating legal redress ( maybe a direct civil suit also…?) if an elected official or beaurocrat effectively witholds potentially life saving treatments for anyone…..especially the vulnerable elderly…?

        The basics of human decency apply at all times, politics provides zero excuse for not doing the right thing, regardless of what people think.

        People might say “hey, this is a war”, but that also means in wartime *all* options need to be explored, including Ivermectin and HCQ…..

        50

    • #
      Jojodogfacedboy

      Worldwide, our whole system is corrupted by greed for money at all costs.
      If your not part of it, then your the problem as you should be following blindly to the media and government propaganda. The media is the worst problem as somebody has to be paying them to keep people ignorant to what our governments are doing to us.
      Breaking story…Racoon climbs a crane and we need emergency services to get it down.
      The corruption is truly massive.

      20

    • #

      From the perspective of someone from the UK I am truly horrified by what is going on in Melbourne but that appears to be due to an over reaction on a grand scale and an expectation that you can evade the virus. Perhaps you can or perhaps you can’t but the cost to your democracy and your economy is out of all proportion to the small number of deaths likely in a country with a very small population in a very large land mass with good sized houses and lots of sunshine.

      20

  • #
    Strop

    An update from Peter Ridd. (those who donated to the appeal fund will have seen this)

    He explained that there are two steps to taking the case to the High Court. Firstly the High Court has to agree that it’s a case worthy of the court. If the court agrees to hear the appeal then there is the actual appeal hearing. Overall, probably more than 12 months to reach a result.

    Plus the following, which appear to be the result of Peter drawing attention to the issues.

    The good news is that this case seems to have galvanised the Commonwealth government into taking a long hard look at our universities and their proclivity to silence dissenters. The Education Minister Dan Tehan has appointed Sally Walker, former VC of Deakin University, to look at the problem .

    https://ministers.dese.gov.au/tehan/evaluating-progress-free-speech

    The Commonwealth government has also indicated it may legislate for free speech at universities (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/federal-government-not-ruling-out-legislating-free-speech-at-universities/ar-BB17KFCn?li=AAgfYrC ). So irrespective of the outcome of the strict legal proceedings, we are all influencing this very important issue.

    On another front, there is also considerable movement on the problem of the untrustworthiness of Great Barrier Reef Science institutions. Because the legal proceedings have morphed into a battle for free speech, it is easy to forget I was fired for saying that Reef science institutions were not applying adequate quality assurance systems. Some of this “science” was claiming massive damage to the Reef due to climate change and farming. There has been some draconian new legislation against Queensland farmers based on this questionable “science”. We have just had Senate Inquiry hearings, that was sparked by our battle.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Rural_and_Regional_Affairs_and_Transport/GreatBarrierReef/Public_Hearings .

    The Senators were able to extract some very interesting confessions from the science institutions demonstrating the lack of quality assurance in their processes. I am confident that, sooner or later, there will be a full quality audit on Reef science, and other areas of science where governments make important decisions on scientific evidence.

    160

    • #
      Another Ian

      Thanks for the last info on the senate enquiry.

      Passed to another puddle in which I have an oar.

      10

    • #
      Peter C

      The Education Minister Dan Tehan has appointed Sally Walker, former VC of Deakin University, to look at the problem .

      The response from Dan Tehan (Federal Minister for Education) has been totally inadequate IMHO. Dan does not want to take any direct approach which might expose him to criticism from the left. Hence he has sought another inquiry. That will do nothing to correct the injustices which have been heaped on Professor Peter Ridd.

      Dan Tehan should consider the values of the Liberal Party, which include”
      “We Believe:
      ….
      In those most basic freedoms of parliamentary democracy – the freedom of thought, worship, speech and association.”

      Those freedoms are even more important in our Univerities.

      However the VC of James Cook University, Professor Sandra Harding, has given Dan the finger and squandered our taxpayers money on legal proceedings which have the opposite effect of those principles. Firstly she sacked Peter Ridd for making the most basic and necessary observations about the conduct Barrier Reef research at the JCU. Then she squandered out taxpayers money on legal fees, firstly defending her own actions in his unfair dismissal case and then again on an appeal to the Federal Court of Appeal. Through all this Peter Ridd has had to spend his own money and funds raised by Go Fund Me to pay for his costs.

      Dan Tehan has his hand on the funding lever, yet he has done nothing to intervene. Does he even believe in the principles of his own party? IS he prepared to defend them?

      I think that the Liberal pre-selection committee should have a hard look at Dan Tehan’s actions before the next election and debate whether he should be pre-selected again.

      70

  • #
    Ross

    Jo, as usual . you’re way ahead of the curve!! Today the media and politicians have finally woken up to Ivermectin and its possible use in COVID treatment. You’ve been mentioning it for weeks. (months?)

    102

  • #
  • #

    We know that both the WHO and other organisations have warned against lockdowns. But, here we are. I guess there is no stopping a popular superstition when it takes hold. Like a virus, a superstition will peak and then disappear. But not before doing great damage.

    BTW I just read that the British government admitted that the COVID-19 death count is inflated. Wow.

    40

  • #
    Tides of Mudgee

    Some good graphics here for the Top Ten Car Producers In The World: 1950 – 2019

    https://para-rigger.posthaven.com/top-ten-car-producing-countries-1950-2019

    No surprise who ends up at the top.

    ToM

    50

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    In my post in the previous thread, I suggested that physics is a way in which climate change can be understood.

    Here is an article in the Scientific American in 2007 which adds meat to those bones.

    310

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Peter thank you for proving my point in a previous thread , you are a skeptics best friend and the link you have supplied either you haven’t read it or understood it .
      Of the many things wrong with the 2007 report and I can’t emphasise enough “the many” , ocean temps are not increasing and snow cover is declining nowhere except maybe near Marble bar .
      Sea level rise ! Really ?

      120

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Peter F:
      THE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE, methane and nitrous oxide REMAINED ROUGHLY STABLE for nearly 10,000 years, BEFORE THE ABRUPT AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATING INCREASES OF THE PAST 200 YEARS.

      please explain

      1. How we can be sure that ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE were the same as ice core results, esp. as other methods e.g. plant stomata disagree? (said stomata figures seem to be better correlated with temperature)
      2. How if ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE started accelerating 200 years ago why the figures before 1910 show minimal change?
      3. Why if ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE REMAINED ROUGHLY STABLE for nearly 10,000 years WHY we had periodic cooling (e.g. the 8,200 year cooling, the 5,200 year, the (approx. 4,000 year collapse of the Egyption old kingdom and the India – and elsewhere – civilisations)? And the end of the bronze age roughly 3100 years ago.
      4. Why if ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE REMAINED ROUGHLY STABLE for nearly 10,000 years WHY we had higher temperatures for several thousand year periods?
      5. Why if ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE started accelerating from the year 1944 WHY we had colder weather for the next 35 years, and no real rise for the last 20 years?
      And just to throw it in 6.How was is that the last 4 interglacials in the past 450,000 years ALL had higher temperatures than present with CO2 below 300 p.p.m. (ice core figures so no guarantee of accuracy)?

      Give up Peter, you know nothing about climate beyond the last scary story on the ABC.

      90

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        There are natural cycles, Milankovitch cycles are an example which can explain longer term cycles.

        24

        • #
          AndyG55

          You know words, but they have no meaning to you.

          Do you have any empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2?

          yes or NO!

          You are proving that you are incapable of understand basic scientific concepts…

          … you know.. like EVIDENCE. !!

          110

        • #
          robert rosicka

          There is more evidence that cycles like Milankovitch and the many others control our climate rather than CO2 or red meat .

          80

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          And which Milankovič cycle caused The Little Ice Age?
          The 26,000 year precession (only halfway through)?
          The 41,000 year axial tilt (only about halfway through its cycle)?
          Or the 10,000 year orbital eccentricity (not expected to finish the current cycle for about 50,000 years)?

          And since you are an expert on these cycles perhaps you could explain
          1. Why the dominant cycle is said to have changed from the earlier precession to the tilt cycle then (about 1 million years ago) to the 100,000 year orbital eccentricity?
          2. Why, despite allowing variation of the recession cycle to be 19,000/ 21,000/ 22,000/ 24,000/ 25,000/ and 26,000, and the eccentricity cycle to be 90,000/95,000/100,000/105,000/112,000 and 125,000 year in length they still cannot get complete correlation and miss several (warming) cycles? [Fudge factors fail?]

          Do you really know anything about these cycles or are you as pig ignorant as that (very) frequent poster, the aptly self named sillyfilly, in The Australian? Or are you really sillyfilly in person?

          70

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            Chat with Andy you can insult each other, sine that is your only debating skill, besides all caps, you’ll not get a reply from me anymore

            08

            • #
              AndyG55

              Poor peter,

              So you admit you have absolutely ZERO understanding about the Milankovič cycles.

              So funny watching you sink further into your mindless abyss.!

              70

            • #
              AndyG55

              “or are you as pig ignorant”

              Seems Graeme No.3 pretty much nailed it…

              40

              • #
                Graeme No.3

                Andy:
                and he left without answering the questions. But I still wonder whether he is really sillyfilly? Both came up with the same nonsensical ‘explanation’ for The Little Ice Age etc. The odds are against there being two people so ignorant (outside the Victorian govt.) or is it something they are taught to say in the AlGore course**.

                **You too can become a Climate Guru in 3 easy lectures for only $450.

                20

      • #
        AndyG55

        “THE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE”

        Depends on which data they choose

        And yes, we are all aware that CO2 has been at DANGEROUSLY LOW atmospheric concentration of plant life existence, for a long long time. !

        And STILL IS. !

        100

    • #
      el gordo

      There are so many flaws in that article, I won’t tackle them all, but this caught my eye.

      ‘A second pattern of change is that while the troposphere (the lower region of the atmosphere) has warmed, the stratosphere, just above it, has cooled. If solar changes provided the dominant forcing, warming would be expected in both atmospheric layers.’

      Not sure why they assume that?

      70

      • #
        robert rosicka

        They never did find the hotspot did they ?

        80

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          Well they did, but it is bound in instrument calibration,
          Which has been roundly rejected by commentators here, although they accept equally adjusted measurements from UAH.

          All I’m saying here is that that all measurements, all models, all reconstructions and all proxies must be considered as rough guides.

          08

          • #
            AndyG55

            LOL, not, they did NOT find it.

            It was a load of statistical mumbo-jumbo. !

            Models CANNOT be considered as any sort of guide uptil they are VALIDATED against reality.

            The fact that they overestimate measured warming by large amounts shows that they SHOULD NOT be used as any sort of guide.

            Do you have any empirical measurements showing warming by atmospheric CO2?

            Until you do, anything else is NON-SCIENCE NONSENSE. !

            And again you show you DO NOT UNDERSTAND the difference between the farce that is surface data, with its “expectation” adjustments and homogenisation to urban heat island, versus the actual real science behind the UAH.

            You display your ignorance in every post you make.

            Please keep going :-)

            130

          • #
            AndyG55

            “radiosonde dataset homogenized

            ” iteratively homogenized radiosonde “

            ie “adjusted” many times… to suit their purpose.

            data torture at its worst. !

            90

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        It is because relative concentrations of IR reflective gases are in the troposphere, means that more heat is retained there, while Stratosphere is shielded (from the IR from the earth and troposphere) and thus radiates any IR into space. That would negate a solar forcing hypothesis

        27

      • #
        AndyG55

        “There are so many flaws in that article,”

        Do they average one per line.? :-)

        Its a compendium of all the FALLACIES of the AGW meme.

        Was it meant as satire, perhaps ?

        70

    • #
      Another Ian

      A note for the Scientific American

      Find a copy of

      Gale, N.H. and Stos-Gale, Z. (1981). “Lead and siver in the ancient Aegean”. Sci. Amer. 244:142-152

      and you’ll see the best photo of a cleavage I’ve ever seen in a general scientific article.

      40

    • #
      AndyG55

      “I suggested that physics is a way in which climate change can be understood.”

      But petel, you DON’T understand the physics or the science.

      You have shown that over and over again.

      There is NO WARMING from atmospheric CO2.. anything else stemming from that anti-science fallacy is mute and irrelevant. !

      It is an article based PURELY on propaganda and holding little to no actual science in it

      “Such gases trap thermal energy (heat) within the atmosphere by means of the well-known greenhouse effect,”

      FALSE, no evidence that is the case.

      “The second advance is the incorporation of more realistic representations of climate processes in the models.”

      LOL, what a load of baloney ! They STILL can’t model clouds, water vapour, in any realistic way whatsoever.

      “The first is greater warming over land than ocean and greater warming at the surface of the sea than in the deeper layers. This pattern is consistent with greenhouse gas–induced warming”

      An argument from IGNORANCE….The slight by highly beneficial warming is also totally consistent with UHI and solar/cloud effects.

      Where is the DATA in this load of tripe??… Where is the EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE.

      There is NONE. !

      It is RANTING opinion piece by IPCC trough dwellers.

      No wonder you linked to it !

      130

      • #
        AndyG55

        Yet another silly anti-science statement from peter’s link.. there are SOOOO many to choose from !!

        The chemistry of the ocean is also affected, as the increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide will cause the ocean to become more acidic.

        Error 1. Oceans are not acidic, nor will they ever become acidic.

        Error 2. The oceans already hold some 98% of free CO2, a tiny change in the atmosphere will have absolutely zero effect.

        Error 3. Buffering of ocean chemistry will easily counteract any immeasurable effect CO2 might inconceivably have.

        Error 4. Compendium of all ocean surface pH data shows, if anything, a slight increase in pH.

        And another

        “Lower latitudes will likely experience more heat waves, heavier precipitation, and stronger (but perhaps less frequent) hurricanes and typhoons.”

        Nope, not happening.. all data shows a decrease. (they even had to change the definition of heat wave.. that was funny ;-) )

        “In the ocean, we clearly see warming trends, which decrease with depth, as expected. These changes indicate that the ocean has absorbed more than 80 percent of the heat added to the climate system:”

        Whole of ocean warming, according to NOAA is some 0.08ºC in 60 years.. ie IMMEASURABLE within any range of error.

        The atmosphere DOES NOT warm the oceans, Any down-welling long-wave radiation causes evaporation, which actually cools the top surface. Only the SUN can warm the oceans to any depth (or perhaps minor sea bed warming?) because only its higher energy UV and light can penetrate to any depth.

        Before ARGO, 2003, they had basically ZERO coverage in the deeper oceans or in the Southern Hemisphere. Any warming is based on assumption driven models.

        Furthermore, proxy data shows the ocean MUCH warmer than now before the LIA and for most of the last 10,000 years. The rise in ocean heat content they try to attribute to human CO2 is minuscule compared to this proxy data…

        The whole article is just one huge error-ridden farce !

        60

      • #
        The Depraved and MOST Deplorable (and still asleep) Vlad the Impaler

        Hi Andy,

        Don’t forget that in relation to this statement … …

        “The first is greater warming over land than ocean and greater warming at the surface of the sea than in the deeper layers. This pattern is consistent with greenhouse gas–induced warming.”

        … … it seems to me that we’ve been told (by Heidi Cullen and others) that the ‘missing’ heat is ‘hiding’ in the deep ocean. Sounds like a direct contradiction to Cullen/Trenberth/et al assertion that there’s a lot of heat hiding in the deep ocean.

        Maybe I’m wrong. Would appreciate your assistance in clearing this up,

        Thanks, and best Regards to you and yours,

        Vlad

        10

        • #
          AndyG55

          They certainly have extreme trouble getting their story straight, don’t they.

          They are basically CLUELESS, and like peter, making stuff-up as they go along. :-)

          10

    • #
      AndyG55

      “which adds meat to those bones.”

      Sorry petet.. it is NOTHING but a rotting corpse !!

      50

    • #
      GlenM

      Plain gullible in my opinion. Light weight and plainly erroneous.

      20

  • #
    Rocket Rod

    Like I said all along, it’d be over by mid year.
    ..and it was for Sweden, who despite not locking down the elderly, caned Covid !
    Pity the rest of the world (mostly) didn’t think the same way, or even think at all…

    “If only 6000 are dead out of five million infected, that works out to a case fatality rate of 0.12 percent, roughly the same as regular old influenza, which no-one is the least bit frightened of, and for which we don’t shut down our societies.”
    Quote from a doctor in Sweden. His report here:

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2020/08/09/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-pov/

    Or…

    “Sweden’s Success is Kryptonite for Lockdown and Mask Advocates”

    https://jordanschachtel.substack.com/p/swedens-success-is-kryptonite-for?r=6a3x3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

    Or of course all the data the CNN zombies don’t want you to see:

    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/#latest

    20

  • #
    TdeF

    It never stops.. the Australian

    “The Arctic could have no sea ice in summer by 2035, according to scientists who studied a warm period more than 100,000 years ago.

    Satellite records show that the area of Arctic covered by sea ice in September, its lowest point in the year, is shrinking by about 13 per cent a decade. Half has been lost since the 1980s.

    Predictions vary on when the sea ice will totally disappear, with one study claiming it would have gone by 2016.
    Most scientists agree that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer by 2050.”

    Says who? And how often have they been right? And so what anyway, it is only floating ice in a part of the world can reach 25C in summer. And if it all melted that would be great. The Polar bears have to sit out the summer on land anyway.

    This is a silly scare of no importance to anyone but carries the usual end of world overtones. The weekend is coming too but at least that is certain. Real scientists expect the world to get a lot colder very soon because that’s what the data says.

    112

    • #
      TdeF

      And as the world cools, it will be up to the brave homogenizers of our very own BOM to keep the world warmer. When the IPCC gives out Climate Change medals with gifts from the Chinese makers of Windmills and Solar panels, I hope they remember our courageous back room scientists who have been exaggerating summers and lowering historic temperatures for thirty years now.

      121

    • #
      AndyG55

      “who studied a warm period more than 100,000 years ago.”

      They should have studied the first 80% of the Holocene

      Current Arctic sea ice levels are HIGHER than they have been for at least 90% of the last 10,000 years.

      50

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        And as a corollary I assume that the ocean levels are inversely related to the amount of accumulating ice on both caps.

        The more ice on caps, the more gets pushed out to become sea ice.

        Sea levels have been cycling down over the last 7,000 years and have fallen a minimum of 4.5 metres.

        This suggests ice is accumulating somewhere.

        50

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        An interesting graph.
        The last three thousand years shows a definite trend of increasing sea ice which infers progressive ice accumulation on the caps.

        It confirms the known geological observation that sea levels have fallen 1.2 metres in the last 2,000 years.

        KK

        10

    • #
      TdeF

      And it’s not as if the land free North Pole is a very cold place, with an average annual temperature of only -3.4C.. It’s the poster child for global warming as people think it is a devastatingly cold place, like Antarctica. Also most think we will drown if it melts, which is also rubbish. What you could call very deliberate misdirection from the same people who would destroy teaching of history so you could think Socialism means equality and freedom.

      70

  • #
    Rowjay

    The cooler weather in Australia’s southeast over the last few days has enabled the Coal Seam Methane (CSM) generators to make a valuable peak load contribution – 920-930 MW on Sunday night. Brings into focus the news about the Santos Narrabri Project approval by the NSW Govt.

    The company says it could provide up to 200 terajoules of gas a day for domestic use for 20 years, equivalent to 50% of NSW demand.

    This is good news for those of us who have recently invested in the most efficient on-demand heating method in a cold climate.

    80

  • #
    TdeF

    And the press are pushing for a meat free world, showing photographs of large cattle from behind. Not a flattering view. Hundreds of millions are being spent making meat substitutes and a killing on the stock exchange. Still the point is that herd methane is 30x worse for global warming than CO2, so they have to go. They are the problem. To be replaced by more crops because people need to eat and there are 5.5Billion more people this century than 100 years ago.

    However the real worry is the extermination of the chickens. Australia consumes 6 billion chickens a year and chicken meat is our cheapest and fastest meat conversion from grain. But they also output methane, so it’s goodbye to all the chickens. And that means all the eggs. And the butter. And the bacon and the wool. It’s kale and cauliflower for everyone. All thanks to the myth of man made global warming story because there were never any animals on the planet before. It’s all our fault.

    So how long before they come for the humans? Humans are the real problem. A world without humans, birds, cattle, pigs, horses would be a much better world, but for whom? And then there is the terrible tipping point rapid warming and sea level rise is nearly upon us, like the rapture. Very soon now, most scientists say.

    71

    • #
      StephenP

      Yep, 60 million buffalo/bison on the Great Plains of America, and the vast herds of herbivores in Africa had no effect on the level of CO2 compared to that of cattle.

      90

      • #
      • #
        TdeF

        The biggest methane emitters are the wood digesting termites which might be small but number in the trillions. Global warming is their fault too. More CO2 means more wood means more termites means more methane. So scientists say.

        60

  • #

    Auckland ordered into lockdown. I guess that proves lockdowns don’t work. Yet another is ordered. What will it take for these people to understand?

    60

  • #
    David Maddison

    In Australia we are not permitted to use hydroxychloroquine for prophylaxis or treatment for early stage infection with C-19. I’m absolutely fine with those who oppose it not using it but why should that apply to the rest of us?

    In any case, HCQ has a very long half life so after an initial loading dose you only need to take it once per week.

    Given that in Nanny State Australia we can’t get HCQ I use quercetin 600mg as a substitute zinc ionophore, along with 50mg elemental zinc for prophylaxis.

    Because quercetin has a very short half life I take it daily at the same time as zinc. I figure that even if quercetin is eliminated quickly it will have at least done its job of transporting zinc into the cells of the body and it can do this once per day. Presumably the zinc will stay in the cell for a while to have an anti-viral effect.

    What are your thoughts on this regimen?

    80

  • #
    David Wojick

    My latest, this time from New Zealand.
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/10/cascading-fallacies-in-climate-risk-assessment/

    Cascading fallacies in climate risk assessment
    By David Wojick

    As a logician, I am always on the lookout for fallacies and there is no lack of them in climate change alarmist policies. New Zealand’s newly released climate risk assessment not only has multiple fallacies, they build on one another in a cascade.

    This is not about New Zealand. The authors of the assessment make clear that theirs is a new approach which they hope will be used globally. So this is about the world, including America.

    The massive report is titled “First national climate change risk assessment for New Zealand.”

    https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/assessing-climate-change-risk

    Under New Zealand’s climate law, these assessments are supposed to be done every five years and this is the first. The scope is breathtaking. The idea is to identify all of the significant risks due to human caused climate change that will be present in 2050 and 2100. Moreover, these supposed risks are prioritized in some fashion.

    Unfortunately this elaborate procedure is just a cascade of fallacies. Some of the major ones are listed below.

    First, they use computer models to say precisely what the average weather will be in 2050 and 2100. This includes short and long term temperatures, precipitation patterns, and other climate features.

    The fallacy is that there is no computer model today that can accurately make such forecasts. Different major models disagree strongly in predicting all of these features. For example the model sensitivity to doubling CO2 ranges from 1 to 6 degrees C, which is a huge range.

    Second, they use the average of what is called the CMIP5 climate model runs. These are runs on a large number of models that are made to feed into the IPCC process. Here there are several problems. In particular the models are all constrained so that all the significant forces are human.

    The fallacy is that there is no reason to believe that the average of a bunch of bad models is good. In fact the CMIP5 average has been shown to run very hot compared to observed warming.

    Third, they then choose to use the modeling of a wildly worst case emissions scenario called “RCP 8.5″. This scenario for future emissions is so high that it has been criticized as impossible. RCP 8.5 is certainly a fallacy.

    Fourth, they do what is called “down scaling” of these questionable modeling results. Down scaling means taking the vague modeling results for a large area and somehow generating results for specific places. There is no scientific way to derive fine scale forecasts from the model’s large scale ones. The data simply is not there. However it is done is arbitrary.

    New Zealand is geographically pretty small with a land area of just over 100,000 square miles, roughly the size of Colorado. The risk assessment divides New Zealand into 8 tiny zones, with a unique climate forecast for each. This is a glaring fallacy.

    Fifth, these impossible fine scale forecasts were then discussed by a large number of people, in a variety of ways, to define all the significant risks. This is an exercise in imagination, not science. It is well known in decision theory that the results of group gropes like this depend heavily on who is there, what they are given and how they are guided.

    The fallacy here is to pretend that this is a systematic inventory of risks, suitable for policy making.

    Sixth, the supposed risks were ranked based on polling the participants. In addition to the group grope problem there is the pesky fact that risk is a two dimensional concept so risks cannot simply be ranked in one dimension. Each risk has both a severity and a probability.

    Generally speaking, high severity but low probability risks are not worth addressing. Meteor strikes are a standard example (the impact really is an impact). The same is true for high probability but low severity risks. What one looks for are risks that combine relatively high severity and probability.

    This 2-value ranking was not done, giving the fallacy of the single ranking of risks.

    The seventh fallacy is yet to come. This wrongly ranked list of imagined risks based on arbitrary down scaling of an average of questionable computer model results is supposed to lead to a National Adaptation Plan in two years. That would be a mega-fallacy.

    On the amusing side, I think they got the highest ranked risk right. This is the risk that the government will do the wrong thing. I agree completely.

    Also very funny is the “Give us a lot more money” risk. It goes like this:

    “Risk of delayed adaptation and maladaptation due to knowledge gaps resulting from under-investment in climate change adaptation research and capacity building

    Risk summary
    Under-investment in research and capacity building to inform understanding of climate change risks and impacts is undermining New Zealand’s ability to develop evidence-based adaptation policy. Critical research gaps relate to:
    –atmospheric processes
    –hydrological cycle impacts
    –ecosystem responses
    –biodiversity and biosecurity
    –New Zealand’s rural and urban communities
    –the economic costs of climate change
    –impacts on the primary sector
    –impacts on heritage
    –effects on health and health services
    –use of mātauranga Māori to inform adaptation
    –cascading impacts
    –how to govern climate change adaptation at a number of scales.
    These research gaps are a critical barrier to informed decision-making. While these gaps remain, maladaptive actions are a key risk.” (Page 188)

    Given all these significant gaps one would think that an accurate risk assessment would conclude that no assessment is possible at this time. That is my assessment.

    Conclusion: The New Zealand climate risk assessment is a cascade of fallacies, unfit for policy making.

    121

  • #
    Jojodogfacedboy

    Interesting article in why electric vehicles will never be viable as we don’t have enough resources to make them and how environmentally unfriendly they actually are.
    https://www.iceagenow.info/why-dont-these-black-lives-matter/

    40

    • #
      PeterS

      Well we could mine the asteroids and build the cars in space. Oh no! I shouldn’t have mentioned that; the left might take it seriously.

      00

      • #
        Jojodogfacedboy

        Oh, no…
        Our politicians could take that seriously and outlaw Earth cars in two years, even though the technology has not been created yet.

        00

  • #
    dinn, rob

    Dr. Death stalks India
    8-9-20   Mexico 6.7/98= 6.8% increase/day new cases/active cases   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/mexico/
    India 651/5636= 11.6% increase/day  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india
    Brazil 50/768= 6.5% increase/day average over last 3 days   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil
    Iran  24/219= 11% increase each of last 3 days average  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran
    South Africa 77/1331= 5.8% increase/day  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa
    Colombia 9.7/150= 6.5% increase/day   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/colombia
    …………………………………….
      India has not placed fentanyl, or most other opioids, on its controlled substances list, easing production and export. India only regulates 17 of the 24 basic precursor chemicals for fentanyl (as listed by the UN 1988 Convention against Drugs)….
      In Garoua, Cameroon, hospitals can trace 80 percent of all traffic accidents resulting in hospital visits to tramadol, suggesting that at least half of adults in the city use tramadol….In the past year U.S. law enforcement officials estimate that 1 billion tramadol tablets have been seized leaving India by the United States and its international partners in counter-narcotics (though in general tramadol is unregulated.)  In May $75 million worth of tramadol, about 37 million pills, was seized in Italy en route to Misrata and Tobruk, Libya12; ISIS had purchased them for resale to ever-growing markets….
      Transparency International found that India had the highest bribery rates across the Asia Pacific region.17  http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2020/07/the-dangerous-opiod-from-india.html
    ……………………………………..
      As major pharmaceutical companies look to capitalize on the opportunity, the playbook unfolding in India seems familiar….
      Big pharma—Abbott Laboratories and Johnson & Johnson did not respond to requests for comment for this report; Purdue Pharma’s international affiliate, Mundipharma, “is very good at co-opting regulators”, said Keith Humphreys, a professor of psychiatry at Stanford University.  “As happened in the US, they are easily converted into useful idiots.”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/27/india-opioids-crisis-us-pain-narcotics

    00

  • #
    Andy

    Yep, sorry.

    Andy

    00