JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Thursday Unthreaded

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Rating: 10.0/10 (11 votes cast)
Thursday Unthreaded, 10.0 out of 10 based on 11 ratings

52 comments to Thursday Unthreaded

  • #
    Chad

    But …….it is already Friday ?

    21

    • #

      How date-ist of you Chad. It’s still Thursday in most of the world.

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      • #
        Chad

        Jo,….just based on the thread initiation date tag…

        July 17th, 2020 | Tags: Unthreaded | Category: Uncategorized | Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post |

        Just ribbin’ ya really! But it would be nice if these “Unthreaded” sessions were automarically initiated ffor regular use ??…

        10

        • #

          Indeed Chad. They used to be. I need to fix something to get back to that. Apologies if I forget what day of the week it is sometimes…

          00

    • #
      raygun

      How many time zones are there ????? 24 last time I counted.

      00

  • #
    Lucky

    It is still Thu night for me, not yet midnight, despite what the clock here says.

    Question-
    The ability to up vote or down vote comments is a very nice feature of this site.
    Those contributors who use it, how do you decide, what personal policy do you use?

    10

    • #

      Nice to have a chance to answer. I don’t vote much. I predominantly down vote aggressive, vexatious and disrespectful comments. I don’t down-vote because the comment is in disagreement with my own view.

      I up-vote clever and humorous, and succinct and thought provoking. I don’t up-vote comments I agree with if they don’t meet the aforementioned criteria.

      32

      • #
        el gordo

        Its my policy never to give the thumbs down to anyone, but like you I give a tick for humorous and thought provoking comments.

        10

        • #

          Gee Aye, that’s what I had in mind when I started it — just a way to give prominence and attention to some of the most exemplary comments in here. I rarely downvote myself, and have wondered if I should drop the thumbs down. But I enjoy knowing that those who disagree are still on the thread.

          10

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      If it’s early in a post and some comments off topic I red thumb it.
      If a comment makes way off wack it also gets a red thumbie.
      If a comment makes sense and makes me think it gets a greenie
      Even if I may be doubtful.
      Recently lots of Greenies when climate change is the topic
      And lots of reddies when Covid 19 is the topic.

      02

  • #
    Jojodogfacedboy

    Billions upon billions being spent by Governments to get a viable vaccine only to find the antibodies don’t last long after infection from the Clovid 19 virus.
    And many people had adverse effects from participating in the research.

    40

    • #
    • #

      Got link to the reports?

      10

      • #
      • #
        Jojodogfacedboy

        From looking at the diagram, it would indicate that you would need a monthly vaccine shot to keep the anti-virus viable in your system. Not sure though?

        10

      • #
        pbw

        Have you found it? I’d like to see it too. There have been a number of items in, for instance, The Spectator, that have suggested a short-lived antibody titre, but I’m relying only on the teasers.

        In all that follows, please assume IIUC.

        Wild measles infections give life-long immunity whereas measles vaccines only immunise for about five years. This comment was made by an interviewer of John Ioannides, who did not demur, so I took it as read. As a child in the 50s, I had measles, chicken pox and maybe some others. (I didn’t get mumps until much later.) These were par for the course. I was nursed at home by mum (an RN, as it happens.) Now there’s a measles vaccination industry that is of limited effectiveness.

        The common cold (a coronavirus, I believe) keeps on keeping on, and no vaccine has ever been developed. Was there not enough money in it?

        Flu remains a seasonal threat, with HN receiving a seemingly random assortment of numeric modifiers, but with good old standbys playing variations on a theme every so often. Flu vaccines depend on guessing which variants will come to the fore this year, and putting out tri- or quadrivalent cocktails which sometimes miss the mark completely.

        OTOH, there are deadly diseases which seem to hang around unchanged for centuries, popping up every now and then. So much so, that smallpox is now said to be eradicated, apart from a few specimens held in total security in a lab or two.

        Friends of mine are under the impression that SARS-CoV-2 is completely eliminated when the last patient dies or recovers, but that does not seem to be the case with other viruses. Que?

        This picture does not inspire confidence in our medical establishment.

        30

        • #

          pbw, vaccines try to imitate the effect of a bad infection without actually causing it, but our immune systems can often tell the difference, hence the effect of a vaccine is rarely the same as the real thing.

          Some viruses are only found in humans (measles, smallpox) so they can be eradicated (in theory). But viruses that also move to animal vectors and back to us, are pretty much impossible to stamp out.

          Sadly SARS may to be in this latter category now. If it had been limited faster, we might have stopped that. I don’t know that it spreads back to us from animals, but suspect that if it spreads animal to animal that it will.

          The mink farms in the Netherlands suggest it can spread animal to animal — at least in mink — so if it gets into a wild animal population we have to expect it to return regularly.

          10

          • #
            Jojodogfacedboy

            China has ask Canada for testing of lobsters for the virus as they are fearful that the production workers could pass this into the food.

            00

    • #
      Kevin a

      Sounds like the perfect business model, 8 billion people need an injection 3 times a year for life. Imagine the share price!

      Moderna coronavirus vaccine causes side effects in over 50% of patients; antibodies disappear in 2-3 months, rendering the vaccine pointless
      https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-07-16-moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-causes-side-effects-antibodies-fade.html

      30

  • #
    Jojodogfacedboy

    Jo,
    You hurt my brain.
    This virus now brings to question…
    Our experts say you need all theses immunizations shots.
    But how long do they actually protect you?
    Our experts have a terrible track record and many have still caught a virus that it was suppose to protect.
    If we need shots monthly and getting them yearly, then they are useless.

    60

    • #
      Rob Kennedy

      Perhaps “they” are psyching us up to take several ‘shots’ a day a la the movie “Equilibrium”. We will soon all need something to control our emotions and keep us in sedated equilibrium.

      20

      • #

        Guys from the first post I mentioned that antivirals would be faster and likely a better option than a vaccine. Jan 31st.

        If you would rather not get regular covid shots, you might be more interested in antivirals, and in figuring how to get rid of the virus rather than encouraging it to spread and do repeat waves of infection?

        No virus = no urgent need to vax.

        Rabies is 100% deadly and there are thousands of cases each year but we in the West don’t need rabies vaccines often. We keep it out with 180 day animal quarantine, and we vaccinate people at risk.

        Pity though the losses of that “suppression” strategy in the third world.

        We don’t know how lucky we are. But we make sure we don’t let that virus in to first world countries. We don’t use herd immunity./

        20

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Further evidence carbon (sic) is NOT the global warming control knob.

    “We analysed data for 142 countries over more than two decades, 43 of which had a carbon price of some form by the end of the study period.

    The results show that countries with carbon prices on average have annual carbon dioxide emissions growth rates that are about two percentage points lower than countries without a carbon price, after taking many other factors into account.

    By way of context, the average annual emissions growth rate for the 142 countries was about 2% per year.”

    https://theconversation.com/carbon-pricing-works-the-largest-ever-study-puts-it-beyond-doubt-142034

    >> If carbon (sic) is the global warming controller, did it cause this?

    World Storm Coverage, 16 July 2020

    >> There is currently not a single hurricane, cyclone, typhoon or tropical storm anywhere on the planet.
    There’s not even a tropical depression or an area under investigation. <<

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

    Wait. What?

    December 2017: Carbon Taxes Increase Global CO2 Emissions. Period.
    https://nationaleconomicseditorial.com/2017/12/01/carbon-taxes-increase-global-co2-emissions-period/

    30

  • #
    Robber

    Back in June, in Victoria the number of new daily cases of CV19 was about 20 per 10,000 tests.
    In the current second wave it is about 100 cases per 10,000 tests.

    20

  • #
    Rowjay

    Labor to announce net zero emissions target by 2050 and will oppose taxpayer funding of new coal power

    So what does “net zero emissions” mean – is it the same as:

    making or resulting in no net release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, especially as a result of carbon offsetting.

    or

    a term used to describe the state of an entity (such as a company, service, product or event), where the carbon emissions caused by them have been balanced out by funding an equivalent amount of carbon savings elsewhere in the world.

    It would be good to know their plan. Hopefully it won’t be the same as the ACT Govt and Sydney City Council who are on paper 100% renewable without detailing whether the renewable energy that they are funding and encouraging is generated when needed and indeed useful.

    20

  • #
    Furiously curious

    Here’s a bit of a dilemma for the ABC. Do they support trans women in the 2023 world soccer cup? If not why not?
    That might put the cat among the pigeons – the poli ABC vs the ‘normal’ ABC.

    30

    • #
      Yonniestone

      I believe the term “cock amongst the hens” is appropriate here for the ABC’s hubris alone.

      40

  • #
    Slithers

    My home has become my prison for the foreseeable future. Five months of counting, just TWO glasses of wine every 14 days!Not allowed to buy some booze. No chance of getting out to buy some new shoes. Great security about 90% of the time then they let people in with-out even as much as a registration as to who they are where they have been. 100% security regarding me leaving this prison for old folk.
    The bitter bit will be when the actual costs get noticed and rooms become empty and un-fillable so care has to be reduced. Residents think about moving out or give up hope and die.
    For me Lock-down is a blessing and a curse.
    The strange behavior of those people who are testing positive must have known there was that possibility yet went ahead and tried to re-locate or even spread it.
    The strange advice mostly conflicting advice driven by the WHO that is is not, then it is, then is not again and similar about faces by governments after such conflicting advice has left the public into blind allies and generally ‘Up the Garden Path’ it is no wonder that the virus is winning this war!

    50

  • #
    Steve S

    “Curve Crusha” not doing so good….what’s going on…last I looked you were down to 1 or 2 cases a day, ready to “elimnate” the virus. Hope you didn’t switch to the playbook we used for New York City

    10

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Completely CO2 free charging station for EV’s .

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nsBgDXHVorE

    30

  • #
    Slithers

    Now I am not someone to spread conspiracy theory, but where was the virus hiding in Victoria between the end of April and Mid June. The reported cases during that time were all identified as returned travelers from various countries.
    Cast your mind back to Salisbury in the UK and how a simple squirt from a fake perfume bottle killed a Russian defector.
    Just how easy would it be to drop a SARS-CoV-2 loaded gel-capsule in a heavily frequented place like a protest march, some person steps on it releasing the virus and hey-presto, and another outbreak after weeks of no new local cases. The development of symptoms then hides the source as the general stupidity of people who don’t feel well but do not get tested then spread the virus. The perpetrator then waits a few months until the next opportunity to drop another virus loaded capsule bringing a country to it’s knees.

    00

    • #

      Slithers, I too have wondered about the terrorism problem, but in this case it’s more mundane.

      Quarantine was inept. Guards slept with the people they were supposed to be guarding, and 30% of people in Quarantine refused to do a covid test, and were let out in the community after 14 days.

      It’s still quite possible, especially with a couple or a family, to have one asymptomatic person infect the others slowly and just before they are all released from quarantine.

      The virus didn’t have to hang about in Melbourne (though that is possible too). It just needed to fly in.

      10

  • #
    melbourne resident

    Anyone notice the CSIRO report on Fraccing? Seems it aint so bad and effects are minimal after 20 to 40 days at the research cost of $62m – yet we have been telling our respective governments that it isnt a problem for at least the last 10 years…

    31

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Modern fracking is inherently safe when done to modern codes etc and I’d have a well in my backyard no problem .

      21

  • #
  • #
    Robber

    All those thousands of windmills currently delivering just 400 MW from a nameplate of 7,700 MW. And shortly zero from all those solar panels.
    Just as well we still have reliable coal, gas and hydro generators to meet this evening’s peak demand of about 30,000 MW.

    40

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    So, who is writing the paper that will blow the Trewin Bourke Thesis out of the water.

    There are three major angles of attack (1) the recorded data; (2) the contemporary reporting; and (3) the temperature comparisons.

    10

    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      So the official Stevenson screen recording in Bourke on January 3, 1909 was 51.7C (125F).

      But, there seems to have been a second thermometer there as well. This is the subject of the report in the Western Herald for Sat 2 Jan 1909 (issue seems to have been backdated, because of the heat, perhaps.)

      The Western Herald says: “January 1, 116, January 2, 116, January 3, 125, and January 4, 110, an average of 118 for the five days. These figures were recorded by the thermometer which has done duty for some years, and which only a week or two ago was tested by- an expert from the Department in Sydney, and proved to be absolutely correct.”

      So the January 3 recording on this second thermometer matches the official recording of 125F.

      But how is it both thermometers recorded 125F when there is disparity between the readings on other days?

      I have been looking at some pictures of a few thermometers and they seem to max out at around 120F.

      Could it be that both thermometers in Bourke in 1909 maxed out at 120F?

      10

      • #
        Peter C

        What Trewin Bourke Thesis?

        I happen to have a BOM thermometer which had been replaced. It is a minimum recording thermometer (ie it has a little internal rod which shows the minimum temp since the last reset) The range is -30 to +50C.

        10

        • #
          Deplorable Lord Kek

          wow. so hypothesis confirmed.

          Blair Trewin’s thesis is what the BOM used to declare the record hot day at Bourke an observational error.

          you can download it here [Thesis text (7.870Mb)]:

          https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/37475

          it’s a searchable pdf, so you just need to plug in ‘bourke’ to the search field to find the relevant bits and pieces.

          10

        • #
          Peter C

          An ordinary thermometer and a maximum recording thermometer may go higher. I do not have one so I cannot say for sure.

          10

      • #
        Strop

        Brewarrina (approx 100km east of Bourke) recorded 123 on the same day Bourke recorded 125.
        This suggests the thermometers being used didn’t max at 120 and also suggests the Bourke reading wasn’t an error.

        10

        • #
          Deplorable Lord Kek

          when i say max at 120F, there is always a gap at the top so it can go to 125 or so.

          10

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    I have a question – are the following tests an accurate test?

    https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/assessment-and-testing-criteria-coronavirus-covid-19

    “Confirmed case

    “A person who tests positive to a validated SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid test

    “OR

    “has the virus isolated in cell culture, with PCR confirmation using a validated method

    “OR

    “undergoes a seroconversion to or has a significant rise in SARS-CoV-2 neutralising or IgG antibody level (i.e. four-fold or greater rise in titre)

    “Probable case

    “A person who has detection of SARS-CoV-2 neutralising or IgG antibody AND has had a compatible
    clinical illness AND meets one or more of the epidemiological criteria outlined in the additional
    testing note above.

    20

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    This is a gold mine to see the internals of how the medical profession is assessing risk across age groups for COV19 – note the risk levels only start at age 50!!

    So why are people younger than 50 under lockdown?

    ——————————–

    https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/07/coronavirus-covid-19-guide-for-general-practitioners-to-inform-shared-decision-making-with-patients-around-risk-of-severe-illness-related-to-covid-19.pdf

    “Hazard Ratios for in hospital COVID-19 death [4]

    “Age (years) Increased risk (adjusted hazard ratio)
    “50-59 1.0 (reference group)
    “60-69 x 2.09 (1.84 -2.38)
    “70-79 x 4.77 (4.23 -5.38)
    “Over 80 x 12.64 (11.19 –14.28)

    “A hazard ratio above one, such as 2.0, equates to 2.0 times higher risk compared to baseline.
    ————————

    “Co-morbidities and other issuesWhile age is the factor most strongly associated with risk of severe COVID-19 illness, many chronic conditions appear to increase risk. [2, 4] In some studies male gender has been shown to increase risk. [4] Data from the UK also found that poverty was an independent risk factor not explained by co-morbidity or other risk factors. [4] First Nations peoples are thought to be at higher risk in public health emergencies. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples may be at increased risk of severe disease and should be considered a priority population when assessing potential risk related to COVID-19

    “Chronic heart disease 1.27 (1.20 –1.35)
    “Rheumatoid/Lupus/Psoriasis 1.23 (1.12 – 1.35)
    “Controlled diabetes (HbA1c<58mmol/mol)(vs none) 1.50 (1.40 – 1.60)
    "Non-haematological cancer (<12mths) (vs none) 1.56 (1.26 – 1.89)
    "Liver disease 1.61 (1.33 – 1.95)
    "Other immunosuppressive condition 1.69 (1.21 – 2.34)
    "Kidney disease 1.78 (1.67 – 1.90)
    "Respiratory disease (excluding asthma) 1.79 (1.79 – 1.93)
    "Stroke/dementia 2.27 (1.99 – 2.58)
    "Obesity Class III (≥40 kg/m 2) (vs none)
    "Uncontrolled diabetes (HbA1c≥58mmol/mol)(vs none) 2.36 (2.18 – 2.56)
    "Haematological malignancy (vs none)
    Diagnosed 1-4.9 years ago 3.12 (2.50 – 3.89)
    Diagnosed < 1 year ago 3.52 (2.41 – 5.14)
    "Organ transplant 4.27 (3.20 –5.70)

    "Risk appears to increase with the number of comorbid conditions. The proportion of COVID-19 cases who reported one or more comorbid conditions increased with the level of care required, with 76% of ventilated cases reporting comorbid conditions. [5]Condition (see list below) Increased risk of (95% confidence intervals) [5]

    "No co-morbidities 1.0 (reference group)
    "One chronic condition 1.8 (1.16 –2.77)
    "Two or more chronic conditions 2.6 (1.61 –4.17)

    20

    • #
      Peter C

      Age over 80 years seems to be the big one; >12x risk!

      That fits with what we have seen so far,

      00

      • #

        Steve, with out pitifully small death rate so far, we don’t have stats for the other younger categories.

        But they most certainly do in other nations.

        Roughly the death rate at any age above 16 is doubled.

        00

  • #
    Peter C

    I am still trying to judge the severity of the Coronavirus. 428 new cases today.

    Based on the recent Victorian figures at 16 Jul 2020(>2000 Active cases) about 5% of infections are admitted to hospital (105) and about 2% in intensive care (27).
    Intensive care facilities have not been overwhelmed and are not likely to unless spread accelerates.

    Total Victoria cases 5165. Fatalities 32: Mortality rate 0.6%.

    The figures to date are better than the rest of the world, especially with regard to fatalities which have been exceptionally low (4 per miilion pop). The recent second wave has not changed the stats as far as I can tell.

    So on that basis I do not think we should be locking down. Individuals can make their own decisions about risk of spread. What do others think?

    40

    • #

      I’m watching those stats too Peter. Very pertinent indeed.

      Part of the problem is not the mortality (though I personally don’t think 1 in 200 dying is acceptable if there is a choice).

      But even if it was OK, the hospitalization rate means we lose our hospitals for months to all the other things they are needed for, and we lose our medical workers. Is it fair to ask them to accept a 1 in 200 roulette wheel?

      00