JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Thought this was interesting as five eyes exposes chinas duplicity with CV? But will govts take it any further?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8279859/Bombshell-intelligence-lays-bare-China-lied-coronavirus-outbreak.html
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Skimming through this is simply confirming what we all knew, assuming we have been paying attention to China insiders on Youtube like Serpentza.
Meanwhile WA has had no new cases in 4 days, and the Premier is power-trippin’ threatening people not to ‘flout the law.” Is this the same law that is killing small businesses daily? How many deaths of despair are there now? This madness needs to end, and quickly (in WA – can’t speak for the other states).
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/wa-woman-dies-from-coronavirus-as-state-records-fourth-day-in-a-row-with-no-new-cases-20200503-p54pec.html
McGowan quotes:
“We do need to remain disciplined. We are still in a state of emergency, and we will be for some time to come.”
Also,
Mr McGowan’s warning on Sunday to West Australians who flout the law was “don’t be an idiot” and don’t think you’ll get away with it.
And,
“I don’t know at this point in time whether we’ll be able to set deadlines with timeframes or just have broad thresholds that we’ll implement as our numbers stay low,” he said.
“But having our numbers stay low is incredibly important to us being able to free up some of the restrictions.”
If you’re all very good boys and girls you may get some pudding. Like I said, power-trippin’.
41
PS> If this were the USA there’d be protests, with guns, on the street by now. We did great with a strong shutdown relatively early, but that means we should also be able to get out of it more quickly. Otherwise it’s heads I win, tails you lose, so to speak.
31
There are protests across the US, without guns mostly. There is significant, and unreported civil disobedience;
or obedience in name only. If you are a personal service worker, and you are not giving “haircuts in the basement”,
I think you are in the minority. Yesterday the patrolled beaches were empty; the open beaches were full.
There were boat bars on the islands in the bay, even though their home bars were closed. The State parks were
closed and patrolled. The County parks were unpatrolled, and full. The marinas ran low on gas.
A number of “take out only” restaurants with open space nearby had created impromotu picnic areas….people were showing OK
social habits but were out and about. I had a plumbing problem that required attention, and had to wait in line at the local Home
Depot. We have a drive in theater nearby that is full every weeknight.
There were workers at every construction site.
This occurred to me, as I watch the world wake up realistically (supported mostly, in my case, by our state politicians):
The government has created three classes of people here, these past few months.
Folks who had to work, got paid, and are stressed and deserve credit (will they get it from government?)
Folks who couldn’t work, got paid, and whose planned future is continuity. Government workers, teachers, certain favored white collar types, we SS recips, the rich.
Folks who were told they couldn’t work, and didn’t get paid, and now will be taxed like heck to pay for all the government claims it needs to do.
The guns will come out when the “losers” the government has created are blamed for the government’s problems, and taxed to “fix” them.
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Agreed. I also think the powers that be may also use the threat of cov19 as a permenant leash to keep the population on from here on in.
Although in the US at least you can appropriately manage any privacy-invading drones where they shouldnt be…things that hover and take heart rate and temperature without a warrant are effectively conducting an illegal search of your person.
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You are displaying an excessive amount of impatience BD.
Our ‘leaders’ copped enormous flack
For being so slow to act.
I was among them. I coined SloMo.
Now they are being equally cautious about
Releasing the lock downs.
And as Victoria has 13 new cases today
That caution is well needed.
03
And a further 22 new infections in Victoria
Discovered overnight.
I cannot see any major undoing of the lock down
In Victoria for a while.
Meanwhile here in SA
It’s still all zeros for 11 days.
Marshall is now talking about
Easing the lock down gradually.
I too am getting impatient,
20
PPS> How much quicker would the state economy be opened up if politicians weren’t being paid, I wonder?
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🙂 🙂
12
Study: High End Model Climate Sensitivities Not Supported by Paleo Evidence
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/02/study-high-end-model-climate-sensitivities-not-supported-by-paleo-evidence/
A quote in the article attributed to John Mitchell, UK MET captures the Climate Model mindset perfectly
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“Model Madness – Parallels Between Failed Climate Models And Failed Coronavirus Models”
Roy Spencer
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/30/model-madness-parallels-between-failed-climate-models-and-failed-coronavirus-models/
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New Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstructions Are Devoid Of Michael Mann-Like Hockey Sticks
https://notrickszone.com/2020/04/27/new-northern-hemisphere-temperature-reconstructions-are-devoid-of-michael-mann-like-hockey-sticks/
H/T
Week in review – climate science edition
by Judith Curry
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Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.14950
H/T
Week in review – climate science edition
by Judith Curry
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Did the coronaviruse cause a lettuce shortage in New Zealand?
McDonald’s New Zealand runs out of lettuce days after reopening drive-thru
https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/mcdonalds-new-zealand-runs-out-lettuce-reopening-drive-thru
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That’s horrible. When I buy a burger, the ingredient I really want above all others is the lettuce.
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On Sunday especially. Lettuce pray.
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🙂 🙂 🙂
50
So what? I went shopping for leeks yesterday and the first 2 supermarkets ** were sold out.
Hypothesis (1): Mass migration of Welsh people to escape the cold miserable weather there, to get the cold miserable weather here.
Hypothesis (2): A rumour that tying a bunch of leeks around your neck stops you getting the CoVid virus.
Hypothesis (3): Global warming has reduced the crop yields.
The last 2 are so absurd that the migration of the Welsh MUST be the reason.
**Actually one was a Fruit and Vegetable Barn (although they have a wide range of other things including meat, dairy etc.) but I can’t see much difference. They’d sold out well before lunchtime.
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Didn’t I hear a rumour about boiling up the leeks till they break right down, then drying out the whole lot, rolling it with a rolling pin, and cutting it into toilet paper sized sheets.
Tony.
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Tony,
Was it a rumour OR did someone leak the information.
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Leeks for toilet paper? You could end up with a hot bot.
10
Is that like cooking wood ducks and a handful of nails?
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I am not sure if the leeks ended up here..?
These rolls are hand perforated!
From: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRlBtabKRFM
“Quilted Northern Rustic Weave | Artisanal Toilet Paper“
00
“… I went shopping for leeks yesterday and the first 2 supermarkets were sold out …”
Maybe the Cornavirus created holes in the supermarkets out of which all of the Leeks leaked.
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IMHO, you’ve described the NZ version exactly.
The flavour and texture of greasy cardboard must have been patented.
Or trademarked.
It’s frightening how many people seem to be addicted to it.
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As my grandchildren sometimes say when doing something wrong leads to disaster: OOPSIE!
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/coronavirus-death-counts-reported-media-outpace-actual-deaths-reported-per-cdc-nearly-29000/
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/cdc-equates-coronavirus-hospitalizations-seasonal-flu-finally-admits-much-less-dangerous-children/
For those who won’t follow the links, an excerpt:
> On Friday the CDC equated the Wuhan coronavirus to the seasonal flu.
>
> The COVID-19 hospitalization rates are “similar to” those in the 65 and
> older category during “recent high severity influenza seasons.”
>
> And the COVID-19 hospitalizations for children 17 and under is MUCH LOWER
> than the seasonal flu hospitalization rates during recent influenza seasons.
>
> The COVID-19 is LESS DANGEROUS to children than a typical influenza!
>
> CDC equates covid19 & flu, 5/1/20: covid19 hospitalization rates are
> “similar to” those in >65 yo’s during “recent high severity influenza seasons”
> & for children (0-17) “much lower than flu hosp rates during recent influenza
> seasons” (h/t @ElonBachman) https://t.co/8sAdxRPlK6 pic.twitter.com/G2RGnNCZU6
>
> — Andrew Bostom (@andrewbostom) May 2, 2020
Likely won’t change any minds (What would U.S. CDC know?), so I probably shouldn’t bother.
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I cannot believe there are still people trying to make a case that CV19 is no worse than seasonal flu.
Sweden is finding out how bad it is. They are the only developed country actually trying to broaden the curve rather than denying hosts to the virus. Under this strategy there is no need to trace contacts of individuals; a whole lot of effort avoided. The only assessed cases are those that present at hospitals.
So far 22,082 cases have presented. There has been an outcome in 3,674 cases. Of those, 2,669 were deaths. The death rate of recovered cases is running about 75%. The up side of this is that it is possible to deduce that there have been quite a few people infected who have not been tested because the death rate is incredibly high if there wasn’t.
Australia has had a different strategy. There has been a huge effort in tracing contacts of those presenting at hospitals and testing positive. With the number of daily new cases at single digits it is reasonable to deduce that most of the sources have been tracked. So almost everyone who has had the virus has been assessed.
So far Australia has a total of 6,783 assessed cases. There are 5,882 resolved cases, of which 93 were deaths. So death rate to resolved is 1.6% in Australia. It is likely the death rate will remain around the 1.6% in Australia. The final total toll should be 110 unless Australia repatriates more people already infected who eventually pass.
Making the assumption that Australian and Swedish medical care are of a similar standard, the 2,669 deaths in Sweden indicates that 166,812 Swedes have already had the virus, using the 1.6% of all cases in Australia. That leaves about 8M still to get it before there is enough of the population immune before the spread is halted. So Sweden could expect around 128k dead before they achieve herd immunity. The UHME forecasts is only 17k.
So keep an eye on that 75% death rate to recovery in Sweden. It appears to be stabilised at that value. There is already 22,082 cases in Sweden. So if their death to recovery ratio stays at 75%, they have already locked in 16,561 deaths; close to the IHME forecast. However the number of new cases is still accelerating.
Sweden is faltering on its strategy:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278087/Swedens-daily-coronavirus-death-toll-falls-67-new-infections-drop-428.html
“Sweden’s top virologist has admitted he is ‘not convinced at all’ that the country’s lockdown-free strategy is right – as Sweden saw a sharp fall in its daily death toll and number of new infections today.”
The number of cases presenting and deaths cycle weekly – I determine that to be related to weekend partying. They have already closed a number of bars that were not keeping people separated.
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The ordinary people are aware of the risks and doing what they can, but parties are multipliers and it doesn’t take many bars to spread the virus. The public meetings, parties, bars, golf, beaches, gatherings are not a great sacrifice to stop the virus and drop the R value below 1, but it is a theory that in two-three weeks they will have herd immunity. At what cost?
Looking at the numbers, 2669 dead. Say this was 5% of infections. So 130,000 cases where you projected 170,000. And with a population of 10million this is 1.3-2%. So who really thinks they are at the minimum 60%-80% needed for herd immunity?
At this rate herd immunity will be reached with a loss of 100,000-150,000 people. 1-1.5% of the entire population. You would have to be hard hearted to think that was satisfactory when you know it only takes three weeks to shut it down completely.
Or looking at our population for 10million, we would have 40 deaths against 140,000 deaths. Surely that is not acceptable to the Swedish people?
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TdeF;
It doesn’t follow. Sweden is just coming out of winter (hence low Vitamin D) with people cooped up indoors. Is their diet is the same as ours? (Much heavier on seafood I’m sure). Also, despite the popular view, Sweden has quite a number of towns/cities which would be partially isolated from mass contact with the virus.
Another point is that people ‘isolated’ in cruise ships and USA prisons with no way of avoiding exposure show low rates of illness (despite high asymptomatic figures). To extrapolate from our figures is questionable.
And on my (very dated) experience, separating Swedes from alcohol would result in revolution.
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But the goal in Sweden is to infect enough so there are enough immune people to bring the rate of spread to zero. Given the ease of spread, that will probably be around 80% of the population; measles is 92%. They do not intend to deny the virus of hosts, just retard the reproduction rate so the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Any community in Sweden that is currently virus free will end up being infected because that is the objective; unless that community takes initiative to quarantine from the rest of the country. It could take years to develop the required immunity. It has taken say 2 months to infect 166k and that rate is at the limit of their hospital system. At this rate, it will take around 8 years to achieve the required immunity. There could be an effective vaccine before then but that is a gamble and not part of the strategy.
They may have a miraculously high recovery rate similar to flu, which means there could be almost a million already immune. In which case they will be looking at about the 20k deaths to achieve immunity. Alternatively Australia may have had many more undetected cases but that would require near zero spread from those infected, which sort of defeats the notion that a lot more infected than detected.
South Korea has a strategy the same as Australia with very high effort put into contact tracing; therefore likely assessed the vast majority of positive cases – 623k tests so far. Their death to resolved cases is 2.7%. On this death ratio there would only be 99k in Sweden who have had the virus.
No doubt Sweden will be looking at anti-body testing to assess how well they are going. I expect that once they get the results they will try to eliminate the virus like everywhere else. It is not acceptable to plan to send 1-2% of the population to an early grave.
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How are glasses for beverages cleaned and handled? If a bartender infects the glasses? Do they drink from unopened bottles rinsed in bleach before being given to the customer to open them? The idea of drinking at a pub or eating at a restaurant in Sweden before August is asking for mass infections. But the idea of doing that in May is just irresponsible. Do customers have plastic gloves and masks on when they’re handed a menu, or a plate, glass, knife and fork? How do you eat without getting those in your mouth and past the mask?
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Menus are likely to go the way of the dodo.
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A favourite lake near us usually has nany people jogging around it.
Some burocrat dimwit decided you could only go around it in one direction.
My patience isnt going to last if this level of social distancing nonsense continues beyond the next 8 weeks i fear.
Went into a dept store yesterday, they have obligatory “hall monitors” counting the sheeple in and out, but get to the checkout and they just jam up nose to tail as always foes. Its a joke…
Ok globalists , youve had your fun, now get lost.
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I’ve been surprised how well people behave in my local supermarket, there’s been a lot more security people for about 6 weeks now to stop people acting out and having random TP brawls. Yesterday the supermarket had in place a large clear acrylic panel between the checkout operator and customer. Late, but welcome. Still no hand sanitizer on the way in, or on the way out for customers though. This seems to be a major oversight. But everything’s cleaner and working more smoothly at this point so if there’s a major resurgence in the end of Winter I think we’ll deal with it much better than we have so far. It’s lucky we didn’t get a serious runaway infection like many western European countries did.
Even so the ~6,750 of known cases here dried-up so quickly from isolation and suddenly changed habits. Anyway, a multitude of technocrats will be busy figuring out better ways to ‘save’ us from ourselves. Maybe we never fully go back to the way things were being done prior. So far it’s not much of a problem, seems like most things are working very well. And businesses that are still open are making plenty of money. The only think I don’t like is the talk of tracking everyone, as that really is unnecessary. I saw the relevant “Federal Minister for Tracking The Proles” on the box a couple of days back and he sounded irrational, his arguments were total garbage and his rationale was all over the place, his examples were frankly idiotic, so I’ll pass on voluntary tracking or even involuntary tracking. That should be completely rejected, it doesn’t make any sense at present, the arguments for it are rubbish, and appears to be a fashionable play thing of politicians in the media, so is a very dangerous pile of krud indeed.
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That Daily Mail link is good.
But I’m glad I do not live in Sweden Rick.
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I spoke to one businessman in Sweden, on Skype. They are worried. He would rather not be there. This is clearly an experiment using millions of people. Success is a disaster but failure is even worse. Surely they have to stop soon?
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I wonder though – is sweden just bringing forward the expected second and third waves of expected infections to now , rather than dragging it out?
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I am glad my son is not a physician in Sweden!
Sweden is retraining airline staff to work in hospitals. Could be a long while before Sweden has planes flying outside Sweden.
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Certainly not much flying in Sweden commercial wise except for cargo jets but I just watched a Swiss Air passenger jet take off for Beijing , flight number LX196.
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Rick
It appears you are calling the final score when In reality we are the very beginning of a very long game. There are different strategies at play here and we will only know which one if any will give the best overall outcome when it has fully played out.
You will also need to decide how to score. Is the death of a 95 year old in a nursing home with 4 other co morbidities the same value as a healthy 20yesr old. You will also need to price in the financial cost of each strategy along with scoring the unintended deaths due to suacide and deaths due to a possible lower standard of living including not being able to afford to heat the home. The list goes on. In normal times the deaths of the old in nursing homes does not make headlines news but it is an ever present and happening everyday.
Here is the current Australia data. https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/05/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_0.pdf
Look at the deaths by age group and cases by age group. This is a disease of the old even more so than the flu. To focus solely on absolute death numbers at this stage is madness.
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I am not “calling the final score” I am making forecasts on the data that is constantly being updated.
If Jo was the CMO, Australia would be virus free and there would be way less economic impact; just like Taiwan. Taiwan did what every country should have done apart from China, which should have contained it.
I cannot imagine Sweden persisting with its strategy. The forecasts are horendous. So it would be premature to “call” it. If they persist and get fewer than tens of thousands of deaths I will be surprised.
You state the suicides from unintended consequences. What about the mental health of hospital staff in Sweden as well as their physical health with high exposure to CV19.
The Swedish authorities talk about being in a marathon. They cannot subject hospital staff to literally months of intensive effort watching people die; remember 75% of those being treated end up dead.
You accept that oldies are expendable. What about fatties; about 1/3rd of the global population are obese. The Australian statistics are highly biased by aged care facilities and cruise ships (which are floating aged care facilities). The US has many more CV19 deaths so is more statistically meaningful:
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
Sure it is biased toward the aged but there are some 8k in 60k who are under 65yo. And what we do not know is what long term health effects will younger people suffer as a result of recovering from the virus. It is a novel virus and no one knows yet if there are long term health impacts. There is already indications that those recovering from severe cases have permanent lung damage.
The health care systems have been tuned to cater for seasonal flu over decades of experience. CV19 is way beyond any virus experienced in the last century.
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Definitely agree with your first sentence Rick. And might I add your whole post.
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RickWill:
There is no doubt that CoVid19 is worse than the usual influenza. From the death rate in the USA last year (60,000 approx.) from what wasconsidered a bad year it works out at 0.017% so At that rate Sweden is way over that.
I would point out that the Diamond Princess had 18 deaths from 2670 passengers + 1100 crew, or an overall death rate of 0.48% but 74% of the passengers did NOT show signs of infection. Also a bit less than half those infected did NOT develop the disease.
On the other hand on a USN carrier with 710 infected (15.5%) half did NOT develop the disease. The death rate was 0.022% of the population.
So it looks like around 80% of the general population already have resistance to Covid. On the other hand Sweden is already past 0.022% and MIGHT be facing a death toll of ( at 0.48% ) around 51,000.
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You’re completely ignoring Belarus. With a population the same size as Sweden and no lockdown in place at all. They are doing extremely well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Belarus
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“Sixteen Years Into The Antarctic Refugee Crisis”
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/05/sixteen-years-into-the-antarctic-refugee-crisis/
Will the ABC remind you of this anniversary?
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A diet of penguins, seals and lichens; could be a bit monotonous.
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“Wuhan Flu: Lung Disease Or Blood Disease?”
““The disease itself appears to be shape-shifting before our eyes.” ”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/05/02/wuhan-flu-lung-disease-or-blood-disease-2/http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/05/02/wuhan-flu-lung-disease-or-blood-disease-2/
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Or both?
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Another possible effect of the coronavirus:
Report: China May Lose $200 Billion in Belt and Road Africa Wing
https://www.breitbart.com/africa/2020/05/02/report-china-may-lose-200-billion-in-belt-and-road-africa-wing/
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Lots of snow up in the ski fields already…
Gimme some more of that….love that “global warming”….
https://www.thredbo.com.au/blog/2020/winter-vibes-are-here-20cm-of-fresh-snow-and-counting/
“Over the past two days the storm total has hit 20cm on the mountain peaks with more snow in the forecast. With sub-zero temperatures, a wind chill of -5 degrees and snow showers forecast for the entire weekend excitement levels are high…fingers crossed for an awesome season of snowfall ahead!
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55cm on Mt Hotham .
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But, but, but…
Too hot to snow anymore!
Runaway tipping points!
The planet/house is on fire!
All experts are in ‘consensus lockdown’ and agree with a certain delinquent school-dropout child actress.
Surely those images of frozen snow-covered hills are just part of your twisted D3NI3R imagination!
🙂
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Greg someone should dig up that CSIRO report that predicted end of snow starting 2020 .
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“… someone should dig up that CSIRO report …”
Is this the article in question?
Climate change threat to $1.8b snow industry
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/archived/bushtelegraph/alpine-tourism/5023908
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No but essentially says the same thing .
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From 2013….
CSIRO was published much earlier
And by the CSIRO ‘forecast’
( Really crystal ball gazing)
There IS NO SNOW there now.
Ummmm?
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Oooh, I wonder if they would take a very large bet against all those suppositions happening … by 2050 …
<evil grin>
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Where are the dams when you could fill them?
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I know I’m probably wrong, but for a decade or more I have been convinced that airplanes and cruise boat emissions interfere with accurate satellite temperature recordings. Thus, with massive reductions in both, I have been pretty excited about the UAH satellite data measurements for March and April. 0.78 to 0.38 in just 2 months – coincidence, most likely, but I do wonder when 4 billion people fly annually.
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According to “flight radar 24” there are still plenty jets in the air , and for oz we are getting planes everyday from China and elsewhere .
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Its a coincidence, the sharp drop is down to a quiet sun and ENSO neutral.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_March_2020_v6.jpg
My guesstimate is that it will continue to decline with back to back La Nina over the next five years.
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Yes we could be at the predicted turning point. At least until “they” find that the heat is hiding somewhere that they haven’t thought of yet.
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Why has the CV19 curve flattened in Australia and stopped heading towards zero?
Over the last two weeks, number of daily new cases is averaging 15, after declining over the previous two weeks from 100.
Recoveries are averaging 40 per day, but total active cases remain above 900, with NSW 690, all other States well under 100.
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Guessing main causes are more testing , you do tend to find what you are looking for, and living in an imperfect world with an initially asymptomatic virus (and virtually symptomless in some as it runs its course) The perfection the number chasers seek will be a while coming. Although I am sure Gruppenfurher Andrews will keep VICs lockdown until perfection is achieved.
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yarpos:
I think Sturmbannführer is the correct rank. Equivalent to Major, and I am sure you would agree that he is a major disaster for Victoria.
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The number of tests has been ramped up throughout Australia.
So the ratio of tests to positive sis still falling.
But it seems that there have been isolation ‘failures’ in NSW & Vic.
Newmarch House in Sydney is the center of continuing infection
With 14 deaths and 63 infections including many staff.
In Victoria a significant outbreak has happened at an abattoir in a suburb of Melbourne.
No one in official circles is giving any reasons why these outbreaks have happened.
But the one thing that is ‘common’ in both is the high level of migrant employees.
So I speculate that there may be among some of the staff
A lack of awareness, understanding or concern for maintaining
The social distancing rules at these sites.
42
Nobody is talking about ratios , just the number of infections
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Yarpos the number of tests being done is being ramped up
To try and catch any remaining undetected asymptomatic carriers.
Finding none is great.
Finding some positives means that further hidden infections is curtailed.
NSW & Vic. have a ways to go yet.
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Response has nothing to do with what i said
11
Ohh dear..
The facts simply don’t matter it seems.
Only your opinion.
BTW, , How sceptical is that ?
12
The variation is understood.
For example, just 10 days ago 400 people landed in SA from India.
Others are arriving and all in isolation, I expect.
So the question is not so much where there are more cases but whether they are from unexpected areas.
The national trasmission data shows the blue section is growing.
So for 13 new infections reported 1 May 2020,
9 are locally acquired from known sources, so presumably already in isolation.
2 are overseas acquired, so presumably also in isolation.
2 are under investigation. These are the concern.
and none from interstate travel, which was likely a direct measure of the Ruby Princess debacle for which someone must be held responsible for the deaths and injury which resulted.
And one group in the Albert Clinic in Melbourne, a psychiatric 82 bed hospital near St. Kilda road the problem was that the cases were detected on 23 March but not reported until a month later. That worried a lot of people and broke the laws on mandatory reporting of infectious diseases, but was presumably in lockdown anyway.
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My point is that as long as we are allowing people to land, the numbers will not be zero. The rest of the world is infected, millions of people. And those fleeing other countries are doing so for that reason. However quarantine should prevent that from affecting our communities.
If you take 1st May 2020, of the 13 cases only 2 were a surprise and being investigated to find the person spreading the disease.
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13 new cases in Victoria today, which needs explanation. 4 in NSW and 1 in Qld. No others yet.
We are dealing with very small numbers, zero in some states.
Of the 891 active cases, 687 are in NSW, nearly 80%. These have to be cleared to remove the largest potential source of the virus. The drop seems to go like the infection, in waves. No drop in NSW for days and then a drop of 500 cases. It will happen again.
When there are no cases domestically, the only cases which can occur are imported. The theory that there was a huge pool of unreported infected people was wrong.
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Proportioning Australia’s death rate across the number of CV19 deaths globally gives a total infected of 15M. So far 3.5M have been assessed as infected. Just over 20% of likely positive cases have been assessed positive. It means there is a huge number of potential carriers. On the bright side there is a significant number in the world who are now likely immune but still a minute portion of the global population.
30
Millions of potentially (not proven) resistant people do not matter much in a world of billions and mutating viruses. Even a vaccine may end up many. We have at least four major strains of flu and they are corona viruses. The best way to protect Australians from what will be soon entirely imported viruses is to test, isolate, quarantine. For everything.
Yes, it will make us vulnerable, but we cannot forever chase the latest viruses and innoculate everyone, knowing that thousands will die anyway. Until the world decides to take flu seriously, this will be a problem. 60,000 Americans died last year from the flu alone. That’s too many. And 800 Australians.
It’s too many if it’s preventable. There are two ways, endless vaccinations to keep pace or just stop it at the front door.
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“60,000 Americans died last year from the flu alone.”
And 67,000 have died from covid19 in the last five weeks.
30
An interesting article about Milanković cycles, although, as Leif Svalgaard points out in the comments, they do get some things wrong.
Tying celestial mechanics to Earth’s ice ages
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/02/tying-celestial-mechanics-to-earths-ice-ages/#comment-2984148
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My theory is somewhat different and fits reasonably well:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg0ONoV86hmuEpHGt
The blue curve is the rate of change of eccentricity. The red curve is the global mean temperature. What you see is the blue curve leads the red curve. When the rate of change becomes positive the globe is in a warming phase; when negative a cooling phase. The black arrow, where the rate of change goes negative occurs ahead of the rapid cooling periods.
The explanation for this is that there is an annual cycle in atmospheric water vapour. This is due to a combination of earth’s axis tilt, orbital eccentricity and the distribution of land and water over the globe. The eccentricity results in higher insolation during the austral summer compared with the boreal summer. During the austral summer the sun sees mostly water causing a lot more evaporation from oceans, thereby increasing the atmospheric water vapour. Each year there is about 2000Gt of extra water lifted into the atmosphere during the austral summer through autumn.
When eccentricity is increasing (rate of change positive) not all the snow gets melted year to year and it accumulates; then there is the positive feedback that reduces the rate of melt. The opposite when the eccentricity is reducing (rate of change negative).
80
Interesting
20
Does it explain the Holocene and esp. the Younger Dryas?
30
Clearly the holocene fits as the globe started to come out of the last ice age about 15kyr after the rate of change went positive, which is typical time frame for each cycle. There is a massive amount of energy involved in evaporating water from oceans to deposit on land so the cooling phase typically takes 100kyr. There is not so much energy involved in the melting phase so that occurs over a short time frame of about 10kyr:
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg0yYRDLkiZCEEEXo
The current variation in TPW is about 5mm (2500Gt). During the glaciation phase, the oceans can lose 7mm a year. That equates to 2000Gt of water, meaning most of the excess evaporated each gets locked up as ice during the peak glaciation phase. The swing in TPW is even higher when eccentricity is high.
Of the present eccentricity cycle, the rate of change went negative about 10kYr ago so we should be seeing cooling within 5kyr. That needs to be qualified though because the eccentricity is moving toward a minimum not seen in the past 1.2Myr so may not be as strong as previous glaciations.
For the last two negative cycles, the negative range of rate of change was longer than the previous three on the chart. That is because the long term trend in eccentricity is down until the end of the present cycle. Both the last two cycles show a bounce in temperature before the final drop; even the third last had a small bounce. So I could convince myself that the Younger Dryas bounce is a response to the rate of change of eccentricity. From the long period in negative rate of change, it would forecast a long period in glaciation.
The ordinate zero value is at the base of the arrows. So positive values for rate of change are above this line and negative values below. At some stage I will redo this chart to show the existing more clearly.
20
10KY is far too long for the entry into the Younger Dryas.
It’s also far too long for the time it took to come out of it. Go look it up first, then read the rest of this.
The YD (Younger Dryas) was very fast: it went into it in only a few years, stayed there for about a thousand years and came out of it at a similar speed to how it went in. It was catastrophic. Both times.
Big Rocks from Space create large, very large catastrophes.
The dinosaurs didn’t get a chance to learn from it.
Neither did the North American and North Eastern Siberian Mega Fauna.
Clovis Man blinked and they were gone before they could finish their blink.
There are two craters on the Hiawatha glacier on North Western Greenland, a few hundred kilometers apart, urgently needing dating and a third one in the Lawrence(?) bay past the end of the Hudson(?) river, (Atlantic Ocean) also needing dating.
See youtube: Joe Rogan Experience #606 Randall Carlson. It’s about 3hrs long … so get yourself comfortable first.
10
Sophocles is correct about the Younger Dryas, it was probably an asteroid which broke up in the atmosphere and returned the world to ice age conditions.
Going further back, at the Last Glacial Max (18,000 BP), a large volcanic eruption in Antartica gave the Holocene a start, which maybe related to eccentricity.
10
Its a cultural revolution for the intractable men of the north-west.
‘Inmates who have undergone compulsory re-education programme to be moved to other parts of China under job placement scheme delayed by Covid-19 outbreak.’
‘Critics have said the camps are a move to eradicate cultural and religious identity but Beijing has defended them as way of boosting job opportunities and combating Islamic radicalisation.’
SCMP
20
Diversity isnt their greatest strength then? But for a few decades and the presence of global surveillance systems the genocide probably would have been on.
30
Beijing is heavy handed with strong fascist tendencies and the new technologies give them control without the need for bloody repression. Its all totally unnecessary, they should embrace the idea of becoming a democracy and their current humiliation on the world stage would go away.
31
I am not defending the Chinese government, but there have been multiple large scale knife attacks at railway stations by M*slim separatists in the region. Like the violence in Western Thailand by m*slim extremists. All that is ever reported is the reaction by the largely Buddhist majority.
There are today few countries in the world unaffected by ongoing terrorism by M*slim minorities such as Boko Haram. All that is reported is the apparently heavy handed racist response without explanation. None of these countries are democracies. I would suggest there may be much more to these stories which may be connected to an ongoing insurgencies by equally undemocratic liberation armies.
30
Forcing men to shave off their beards and go into lockdown with a bunch of strangers, to learn political correctness in Mandarin, is a bit much.
It only came about because of some young hot heads acting badly, they were quickly rounded up, tried and executed. Its not a liberal democracy, so we shouldn’t expect miracles.
Those who refuse to recant will be sent elsewhere to consider their future.
00
The People’s Daily tells fibs.
‘The origin of the novel coronavirus is a serious and scientific issue that calls for meticulous and professional investigation from scientists. The “patient zero” of the 1918 influenza pandemic that originated in the U.S. is still not found today despite over a hundred years of searching.
‘So how can the U.S. politicians and right-wing media be so certain about the source of COVID-19?’
11
El gordo
Yes they do but….the 1918 flu probably did start in the US, in Haskell county Kansas to be precise. It was US soldiers entering the european war that imported it. And patient zero has never been identified.
Yes they lie…occasionally they tell the truth. Makes it bloody hard to trust anything they say.
00
Not likely, they use the truth carelessly, the Spanish influenza pandemic came from China.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/1/140123-spanish-flu-1918-china-origins-pandemic-science-health/
00
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/02/pseudo-science-behind-the-assault-on-hydroxychloroquine/
You get sense after reading this article, that the powers that appear to have wanted the outbreak to be much worse by effectovelt trying to stop effective alternative treatments.
This would make sense if you want the population to be very sick and consequently crying out for govt “assistance” and prolonging lockdowns and other police – state like “cures”.
The pushing of temperature sensing drones, mass surveillance apps and running the planet like an open air prison makes you think perhaps this is what they sctually wanted to happen – the virus is the catalyst to a medically driven police state.
134
Forget the power conspiracy, OS.
Follow the money.
Can anybody name me one Big Pharma that will benefit from the adoption of generically produced HCQ (+Zn) as the early onset treatment for Covid-19?
It would appear that the NIH is owned by Big Pharma. The Democrats are owned by Big Pharma. Fauci is owned by Big Pharma. The vested interests are looking after their interests.
30
Wait. What?
debunking claim: – Micheal Moore’s film “Planet of the Humans” claims billions of $ are spent on renewables but this does not lead to replacement of carbon (sic) spewing fossil fuels.
Here’s data on Europe showing that this claim is bogus. ( figure 4-2, page 24) –
The European Power Sector in 2019- Up-to-Date Analysis on the Electricity Transition
https://ember-climate.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Sandbag-European-Power-Sector-Review-2019.pdf
>> Wait. Rising use of renewables seem to correlate well with rising CO2 emissions …
April 30, 2020 CO2 Luana Moa Observatory: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/wp-content/plugins/sio-bluemoon/graphs/mlo_full_record.png
And yet another UK dataset from carbonbrief showing very clearly how the growth in renewable electricity generation has pushed coal out …
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-low-carbon-electricity-generation-stalls-in-2019
>> Carbon (sic) levels still rise and climate continues its predictable changes of cold (winter) to hot (summer) to cold again, despite the amount of renewables.
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Beware the numbers.
In Australia, there is a huge penalty in using coal or gas or diesel based electricity, all of which makes wind and solar look cheaper when it is actually much more expensive in absolute terms. So wind and solar are always used if possible. This inflates the figures and makes coal and gas and diesel less profitable as they have all the same capital costs while letting wind shine.
In a free market, no one would use wind or solar!
Wholesales prices would plummet without the RET. It is only the RET law which forces a retailer to pay a $2 gift to wind and solar farms for every $1 of fossil fuel electricity used which props up the replaceables market.
That is why we have the world’s most expensive electricity when 90% of it is coming from 50 year old coal power stations.
80
Worst apocalypse. Ever. Update:
April 30, 2020: Some of the latest climate models provide unrealistically high projections of future warming
https://phys.org/news/2020-04-latest-climate-unrealistically-high-future.html
40
Study: High End Model Climate Sensitivities Not Supported by Paleo Evidence
I’m sure that this new analysis will be reflected in the next round of IPCC reports/sarc.
Yes, no virus can stop the IPCC’s work, even if those international junkets have had to be replaced with virtual meetings.
The next round of reports being developed for AR6: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/
The Physical Science Basis, April 2021
Mitigation of Clmate Change, July 2021
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, October 2021
Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2022, June 2022
For a climate emergency, they seem to dawdle along. Isn’t the science settled? I’m sure Greta could write the report for them by next week.
50
Some here might like to register and log in …
Stimulus Summit: A renewables-led recovery
Free-to-attend online summit
Wednesday May 6 2020
11AM -4.20 pm
register now
https://www.smartenergy.org.au
Green Grifters talking: Ross Garnaut, Simon Holmes à Court …
40
On such matters, I notice that it appears some wealthy Australians are pushing the making money from China, but seem to be less inclined in protecting our national sovereignty.
So if Australia winds up in a hot war with China at the behest of the USA, what then?
Interesting thought – we had loo paper and a lot of commodities run low recently briefly during the Cov19 foul-up ( and I’m still not convinced supermarkets didn’t add to the problem ). Now imagine China being off limits for at least 2 years in a significant military act.
How long would it take to ramp up replacement functionality in this country?
Years?
If you read what appears to be the Globalists Play Book on the WEF.CH web site, one thing they are pushing is socialism dressed up monetarily – namely inter-dependence between nations, or put another way – powerful countries dragged down to be less powerful and placed under UN control ( The USA cant be put under UN control as its currently too powerful… ).
Ergo, pushing countries like Australia to be vulnerable like this, is part of what appears to be the overall plan.
The USA found this out recently when Saudi sent huge amounts of oil to the USA to its Saudi owned oil refinery in Port Arthur, to basically block & shut down US oil production ( the tanks were full, so no further production possible ). This meant oil workers out of work, US oil manufacturing hugely curtailed, US now quite vulnerable. And this happened while the COv19 thing was going on – coincidence? Are the Saudis now in bed with China? Who knows….
Anyway, to regain any form of our own national independence, Australia’s best option appears to be to extract itself from any countries’ dependency. I think we’ve seen the danger it poses very clearly. This is *not* nationalism, but rather pragmatic/common sense.
The other danger we have is the greenists/globalists rebooting the economy into “greenist-limp-home-mode”. The greenists/globalists appear to be keen to see our industrial output deeply curtailed to protect their mythical “Gaia”, as such, we need to be vigilant that any restart of the economy is not crushed by greenist rules and nonsense.
Chances are we will have no shortage of useful globalist idiots who will spruik such things, these people need to be taken to task publically.
Just a thought….
61
I’m just waiting for the bovine waste to come into violent contact with the rotating wind generating device, when the first residential power bills start to come out for all those people who have rooftop solar panels.
You see, there will be a double whammy on those power bills for those panel owners.
Residential power consumption has risen with everyone home, and workplaces and schools all closed.
Admitted, laptop computers don’t consume all that much power, but they have to be charged, and now with Bluetooth also sucking life out of mobile phone batteries, they need to be charged more often also. Okay, they also consume little power whilst charging, but the App which requires Bluetooth now has 4.5 million downloads, so that’s a lot more battery charging required, and there’s no sneaky charging all those devices out of the power points at work eh!
People are now also using a lot more appliances during the day, aircons and heaters on, clothes washing, clothes dryers. It all adds up.
So, instead of empty homes (all those plethora of homes with panels on roofs) and all that generated power being fed back to the grid (but only for consumption in the local area) all that rooftop generated power is now being consumed BY the homes themselves. And therein lies the double whammy.
A lot of homes just have the minimum power system, so not only will they be NOT feeding power back TO the grid, as the home will be consuming it, they will also be drawing more power FROM the grid.
So, they will not be getting back the exorbitant Feed In Tariff (FIT) to augment their Bill, and they will also be being charged for the excess power they consume from the grid. The same will also apply for those who have larger systems on their roof, only they will be getting even less back, because they will be using more of their own rooftop generated power instead of the FIT payment for it all.
I can see howls of power companies gouging customers, when it’s actually no change at all, status quo, just those exorbitant FIT payments coming back to bite panel owners on their fundaments. Because, as the DESIGN of them is implemented, to SUPPLY residential power, (and NOT as a money making artifice) they (finally) will be fulfilling that design capability.
You can bet that there will be calls for Governments to step in and pay power bills next, and when that happens, it will be ANOTHER impost on those who DON’T have panels, as they AGAIN will be forced to subsidise those who have the panels, because there won’t be any relief for those without panels you can bet.
Incidentally, for those who think rooftop solar power being fed back to the grid means less power generation from existing power plants, the actual power generation across daylight hours (when rooftop solar is actually generating power) has not changed all that much at at all during this lockdown, even with all that reduction in commerce, school, and industry power consumption off line. Rooftop solar power generation is the same as it usually is for this time of year.
It’s amazing how actual data always is the opposite of what greenies tell you, eh!
Tony.
240
I moved into a newly built house recently. The build package included a solar hot water heater, with a gas booster for days when the sun is unreliable and nights. After we moved in, I looked at the unit and found that both the solar control unit and the gas booster are connected to the electricity supply. I presume the gas booster electricity connection is some form of ignition to start the gas. On reading the solar unit documentation I see that the electricity connection is required for times when the temperature drops to near freezing to circulate water onto the heater unit to stop it from freezing. So on days like we have had recently where the sun didn’t shine and the nights/early mornings were cold, not only was no water heated by the solar unit, electicity was used to stop the possibility of the unit freezing.
130
Good thoughts Tony, I also think the “how does govt pay for such things” comes in 3 words that will put yet more “cripple the middle class” socialist thinking namely :
Increase the GST. Yep….no way to avoid the GST unless you own a business. And what better way to “punish” the middle class for daring to try and get ahead and fight off globalism.
I am tipping increase to at least 12.5% if not 15%. Guaranteed vote loser at the next election, and we will get even more crippling Labor socialism as a result when govt changes.
You can see how evil the whole Cov19 thing, is in what its managed to do.
I think its a far worse economic weapon, that a medical one.
Fuel poverty, especially in countries like the UK etc will kill more people than the disease has/or ever will.
110
Tony:
Here is S.A. the State Govt. is encouraging more solar + batteries with interest free loans**. The supposed idea is that the daytime solar will charge the battery while owners are at work, so that they can use the amount stored when the peak period of demand happens (the sun sinks slowly in the west and people start cooking, viewing TV etc.) The unstated reason is that a rise in demand when neither ‘renewables’ can supply would crash the grid again, as the ’emergency’ supply through the interconnector won’t be enough.
Then there is also the problem of frequency stability as that “big Battery” is useless.
So having people at home, using up their solar generation (there’s not been that much the last few days) upsets that plan.
The best laid plans of mice and men…. doesn’t apply as there is nothing best about the idea.
**from my calculations the pay-back time would be near 27 years.
100
27 Year payback is great news to a Green.
10
Yes Tony and even worse to come as air-con will be used more in daylight hours for house heating in winter months.
It is also important to remember that these solar thieves will get charged for network use (half their energy bill).
All sorts of distortion in this market that the solar industry does not tell in their sales guff.
91
That argument is plain silly.
By paying the network use charge (in periods when energy is being exported as well as imported) means that the utility cost has been covered, hardly thievery. Yes, it is about half of the remainder.
Secondly, the export price is about 50% of the import price. So the communistic, state mandated service is still getting a tithe, I just use less of their expensive service. If I could avoid it altogether I would.
There is lots of distortion from stupidity, ideology and a distinct lack of common sense by zealots on both sides of this argument, as you have evidenced.
24
Meglort, you clearly do not understand that these thieves do NOT pay appropriate network usage charges (50% of bill) when they are exporting most of the normal time.
Yet they are USING that network to export and would not be able to make their “profit” without the said network. Some normally pay no network use charges at all!
It’s one of the misunderstood failures of residential solar schemes using accumulation metering.
Well at least in Cov19 times they might just pay SOME network use charge (50% of their imported energy bill).
That would be just a bit fairer to the rest of us who pay our appropriate network use charge all the time.
21
We don’t have that kind of regime here.
There are no subsidies and we pay standard daily network charges.
We use smart meters that are designed for self-consumption and they only export the excess and bring in shortfalls from the grid. It was an installation and connection requirement as was having a standard residential supply contract.
Energy Australia gave us a breakdown of the charges and explained that the network charge was calculated to cover the cost of providing the service and that is why it exists.
They sell my excess power at 24.5c and buy it from me at 10.5c per kWh up to a limit of 5kW/hr with a 9.9kW max system on an 8.2 kW inverter. The 14c margin covers their RoC and TCO which is not fixed and they review it yearly. Over that you need 3P and the connection charges are proportionally higher and your FIT is 20% lower again to a max of 15kW (from memory).
If you are talking about commercial solar installations, I cannot comment but the old school subsidised residential FITs got phased out here in 2017. There might be some still running but they are tied to the premise and customer. When either change it reverts to being a standard relationship as above. If you change the inverter or panels, it becomes null and void anyway.
A report by the ACT government claimed that the majority of these legacy tariffs were few in number and only 2-3kW installations, hardly a “profit”.
00
Sorry Meglort, but you have been sold the koolaid version of the truth because most “smart meters” on solar installations are still accumulating “energy” over entire billing period. And they are also not accounting for time-of-use anyway that’s a whole other problem.
There are two “accumulation” problems with this scheme:
1. Metering accumulation is not fair because the network-use component that it measures “by inference” should be charged for both import and export and not “netted out” as is (and would) be expected for the energy component. Network-use charges should be incurred for using the network whether for import or export. It’s a mathematical trick because Retailers bill individual consumers for their network-use charge by simply factoring up the tariff and applying it to their accumulated net “energy” readings. So, no positive network-use charge is applied to the energy exports in these calculations. Effectively, network-use charges for exports actually reduce the bill not increase it. Remember that exporting energy still needs the network but they get a negative network-use cost for that “energy” in their bill.
2. Retailers “accumulate” gross energy and network-use. They bill all consumers based on the gross numbers. Non-solar consumers end up paying the smeared costs of the solar prosumers that are not collected due to the mathematical trick in 1 above. Someone has to pay the gross network-use cost and it ends up falling on the poorer consumers or those that can’t install solar.
Sure, there is a differential between charging rates between imports and exports. But all of this trickery occurs well before converting to dollars. The netting process conveniently hides from most people that the accumulation of network-use units that are built into the overall “energy” readings should have a positive sign whether they are import or export.
00
Tony, that has not been my experience at all.
We need to heat in winter and cool in summer.
Our energy costs used to be about $6K/pa for a family of four which was brutal.
Now they are about $1K/pa (plus the investment cost of rooftop PV).
We just moved our consumption primarily to the daylight:
Washing (front loader + dishwasher), cleaning, heating (storage heaters + HWS), pool.
Right this very minute my central heating is running, the HWS is charging, the pool filter is going, I have 3 x 4′ tropical fish tanks going, my sons and I are all using high-end custom PC’s, both of them gaming.
We are producing about 7kW and using about 4kW per hour which is about our usual.
Overnight we used 9.5kWh which the grid excess to now has been 12.5kWh (it is 11.20am).
The problem you allude to perhaps comes if there is a mismatch in energy use profile, installation and allied technology but if we are talking about science being observation and measurement rather than opinion and ideology, the facts in my case are absolutely clear that it has been a great move financially, but I cannot speak for others. Based on baseline (pre) to current energy costs over the term I will have returned the capital cost in the 3 or so years as forecast with a likely 15-20 year capital lifespan.
That being said, as a household we absolutely rely on good baseload power which is a given when sun isn’t shining. The problem is that zealotry occurs in both sides of this debate, neither maintaining any objective basis in reality or helping at all.
We need to move beyond the scorched earth, ideological rhetoric and accept that energy is a system that a mix of fixed (coal + nuclear + geothermal), surge (gas) and so-called renewables can make good sense, if the benefits and disbenefits of each are assessed and designed into the system without bias or quasi-religious fervour.
As a household deploying rooftop solar and using the baseload when I need it, has resulted in a much better cost profile, absolutely no doubt. Extending that logic to an aluminium smelter is where the problems start and the stupidity continues.
51
Meg;ort,
I gratefully accept your thanks – for me contributing to the original purchase and installation cost AND the ongoing operating cost AND the subsidy I pay you for “generating” the power.
Signed,
Zealot
61
Much appreciated Zealot 😉
I pay about twice the average income in personal tax that I get nothing more than the average income in return for and nobody thanks me for that.
10
Meglort,
I share your plight. No one has ever thanked me for paying tax, but out of the goodness of my heart, I still pay plenty of tax.
Signed,
Zealot
00
I have no goodness in my heart, simply pragmatic, dutiful compliance.
BTW do I need to PM you my BSB and Account number in relation to your offer in helping me out on the installation, operating and generation costs?
10
Did you include the Opportunity Cost in your calculations? My Opportunity Cost was calculated at $1500 over 10 years for a $5200 system, and I’m guessing that your system cost much more than this, so your Opportunity Cost surely must be much higher.
20
Graeme – I did.
That is based on about 3.2% as a capital loss from not putting it on the mortgage in the offset.
Mine was about $8500, single phase (9.9kW), capped at 5kW.
00
OK. Still surprised that you will recover your costs in 3 years though. My estimate was based on 10 years and so far it doesn’t look like I’ll recover the costs in that timespan. I use the air con a lot during Perth’s summer.
10
In truth I am a bit of a heating Nazi, the kids reckon (20C day, 15.5C night) and I will not budge on this which is centrally controlled and always on Anzac Day to Labour Day, we are in Canberra and winter is COLD.
But I felt like I was being mugged by the power bills each quarter.
Originally there was an old A/C (about 3kW/hr) which we just use a little in summer for cooling but heating is a series of LVI storage heaters controlled centrally by WiFi. These are way less than the A/C to run (about 750W/hr for the six panels from my testing and monitoring).
They were about $4K. I have not included the capital costs of the heaters because I would have installed them anyway regardless of power source since A/C and ducted gas give me sinus hell. I love radiant heating.
The LVI’s can be current draw limited as well, which I have tuned to stay within the power the PV produces with a little headroom for the HWS and household baseline (about 1kW/hr in the day). HWS is 900W and heats its 315L in about 2.5 hrs to 60C. Together they really work well with PV.
I reckon I cover about 70-80% of our energy use now from the PV over the year. Summer subsidises winter. I also got them to install the panels in two strings (one NE and one NW) to maximise the overall exposure on a yearly basis rather than the intraday peak which worked well. The aim is not to sell but to use as much of my power as I can so less for longer is better than more for shorter.
Gas was the killer here and when the gas HWS needed replacement I got a reverse cycle heat pump which has been outstanding. So about $300 in gas connection charges each year gone by eradicating gas. Cooking is induction. All lighting is LED and we really strive to use power in the day, night is necessity only most of the time for household tasks.
Ideally I would use the excess at night rather than sell it to the grid but the cost of storage (other than what I have done) is not good then I would be 100% self-reliant. My spreadsheet that I based it on said 5 years payback (9.9kW) but getting smart on the usage and swapping out stuff looks like has pulled that in. These numbers are based on one year (4 seasons of operation) now.
Interestingly a 6.6kW system based on the same calcs took about 8-9 years because in the winter the model said I would buy more than I produced to stay warm. The higher ratio of expensive bought power pushed out the capitalisation costs. I rarely buy power between 8am and 5pm with this and we minimise usage outside that window and in summer I waste about 5-10kWh most days due to the limiter if I don’t use the A/C for the heck of it.
10
Thanks for the info – always interesting to hear how other folks are attempting to cope with the higher energy costs. I’ve also converted the entire place to LED lighting, even the garage. Being in Perth, it’s mainly cooling costs that are of concern here, and our gas costs are reasonably low.
00
“assessed and designed into the system without bias or quasi-religious fervour.”..
So you are against the subsidies and RET for wind and solar.
You know, the subsidies that those without the means to pay for solar themselves, pay for you?
Good.
20
The only subsidy were STC’s that were signed over to the installer to sell on the market. The price they paid me for them came off the retail price. It is not a subsidy in the same way family tax benefit or low income tax offset is.
If the question is am I a conscientious objector to carbon credit trading (STC/RET), the answer is no. Do I believe in the rationale for it? No.
But as I noted above, our world is not that simple. My taxes fund SIX people on the DSP and THREE people on Newstart every year completely. I receive no government tax credits, rebates or other handouts like FTB A or B, LITO, etc., etc.
I accept that I for whatever reason pay significantly more into our social system YEARLY than 50% of people in our society ever do in their lifetime. Do I begrudge pensioners, unemployed and public servants for my excessive requirement to fund their largesse in return for receiving absolutely nothing more than the basic service from our government? No.
Do I begrudge saving for my retirement as well as funding those of many others who came before that decided I should fund theirs as well who did not? No.
My feed in tariff is the standard 10.5c (wholesale), and I pay 24.5c (retail) per kWh in exchange to be allowed to use whatever I produce for our household. I sell or buy the delta.
So in other words, I am providing an complete income for a conger line of people without the means. What are you doing?
61
All that money, and you still accepted the subsidies.
[Snip] play nice .[AD]
34
I specialise in providing humour to imbeciles.
Looks like it is your lucky day!
[You are both smart guys with a point. It’s a tough topic. Cool it please. – Jo]
01
Perhaps Meglort and Andy can come up with a system where solar owners pay a fair share for use of the network and to repay their installation subsidies? Since our network cannot survive if everyone took up the solar installation rebate it is clearly unfair and an unsustainable system.
I would be OK with disconnecting solar homes from the grid immediately, and then they can go it alone. They can keep the installation subsidy, but pay fair costs if they want to reconnect. They should only be paid for solar power produced during peak times when we need it. Which is about 3% of the hours of the year on summer afternoons at 3pm.
I want the choice to buy coal power at its competitive market value and the choice not to pay for all the homes with solar power on the roof to get network connections that are not covering their costs. Coal power is designed to run cheapest when it runs 24/7 nonstop, and yet I pay more for coal now because solar users provide power when we don’t need it and force coal to idle inefficiently.
No one is going to like me saying it, sorry. I understand why people put solar on the roof. Bills are ridiculous. Canberra is very cold, and it’s legal. But it does parasitize the grid at the expense of non-solar users. Hence anyone cheering about money saved will be reminded of that.
40
That’s a bit unfair Andy. I’m with Meglort, and since I also clearly oppose renewables, you could also accuse me of being a hypocrite by installing a solar system. I also refused to go onto welfare when I was entitled to a pension, and am still working part-time, after 59 years of continuous work. Please don’t judge folks simply because they installed a solar system – I believe quite a few regular contributors here have solar systems.
30
Do you think we will be able to hear the agony from over here in NZ?
I’ll be listening out!
20
Some people will be better off. FITS havent been exorbitant for a while now , so consuming your own power and not paying 30c or more a kWh is beneficial. Works well for us in the summer and we never applied for FITS .
20
Makes for a good story ignoring the facts as you have outlined them though.
It is kind of like saying people are scabs for having a water tank and being connected to the mains.
Or having a vegetable garden but having the sheer audacity to buy fruit at the supermarket.
A good example of the lowest common denominator in action.
22
I have water tanks and would love to be connected to the mains as well but alas none in the sticks .
Yes I have solar too 5kw and had it installed before I knew about where the subsidy come from but ultimately it was put on because I knew my income was going to reduce to a pittance so I needed to find ways to reduce living expenses .
For me it’s saved me about half my usual bill so all good with that but I’m uneasy with the fact that electricity prices went up to subsidise my install .
I’ve paid my fair share of taxes over the years and maybe that’s the way it should have gone or better still no subsidy.
20
Winter rains return, weather is normal again.
‘May to July overall is likely to be wetter than average for most of the southern two-thirds of Australia. However, parts of the tropical north, and areas east of the Great Dividing Range have roughly equal chances of being wetter or drier than average.’ BoM
50
Well they did not get the last 5 months right
With their December crystal ball ‘forecasts’.
So why would any one pay attention to more
Crystal ball gazing about the next 3-4 months ?
50
Bill, an interesting and perverse thing is that one part of the split brain that is the BOM was providing an excellent running analysis of the IOD+SAM phenomena which when it subsided (as they predicted with accuracy), resulted in rain along the SE almost within a day or so which has continued since.
That the other evidence destroying, false records promulgating part of the BOM split brain was spruiking Tim Flannery-esque misguided and unscientific blather is a governance problem. The leftist ideologues in the ABC pushed the alarmist nonsense whilst the science + natural history side reported on the IOD+SAM situation.
60
BoM is basically reporting what we already know, the subtropical ridge appears to be tracking normally. That is, as we move into winter the STR should wander further north, which is a clear indication that global warming is over for a couple of decades.
41
Here is a most interesting interview with Dr Zelenko suggesting that politics and profit may be playing a part in the negative reporting of hydroxychloroquine (not the least of which is they do not include zinc in either their trials or their reporting). Surely they’re not letting money get in the way (sarc.). ToM
https://youtu.be/W0KhesPL5wA
90
Another voice of credibility describes the Australian lockdown approach as a mistake.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=14&v=bl-sZdfLcEk&feature=emb_logo
32
Umm another computer scientist professor..
Who thinks & says “Sweden is doing fine ”
Doh ?
Facts don’t matter
Only his opinion matters !
Another Dingbat !
18
Swedens excees mortality is mid range in Europe
41
Yarpos, you are full of malinformation.
In fact I suggest you are spreading a big fat porky
Here is how Sweden is doing compared to it’s immediate neighbours :
Sweden :
Total Deaths 2679
Deaths per million : 265
Norway:
Total deaths 211
Deaths per million: 39
Denmark:
Total deaths 484
Deaths per Milllion : 84
Finland :
Total Deaths : 230
Deaths per million : 42
There are a lot of Finns, Danes & Norwegians counting their blessings they are not Swedes.
And I suspect there are a lot of Swedes wondering how they can migrate to Finland, Denmark or Norway.
The only ‘nearby’ country with a death similar to Sweden is the Netherlands, which is also pursuing a half baked ‘herd immunity’ goal.
PS About 27% of the Finnish Population are actually Swedish by descent and language. Finland used to be part of Sweden as did Norway.
Source : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
34
Absolute balderdash Bill !
https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/tackling-new-coronavirus-in-the-netherlands
If you read through it you will find their measures are basically the same as SAGov’s….SA has the most relaxed measures of all Oz states.
The Netherland’s big problem is their population density of 505 people per square kilometre (2016) which is the highest in Europe apart from the Vatican. Taking this into consideration I would say they are doing very well.
The Dutch are far from stupid mate… the Netherlands is a resourceful inventive nation and I reckon you owe them an apology. :p
11
have a look at euromomo.eu to get a feel for relativities and excess rates and comparisons with recent seasons. Also forces a wide look across Europe rather than cheery picking what suits you.
thanks for the name calling though, straight out of the left playbook
happy to acknowledge you beleive something else, that doesnt make it fact regardless of how strident you get
10
I watched all 34 minutes of the interview.
He seems to have got all the numbers right.
He broaches some topics which he admits are taboo, eg the (future economic) loss of a death of a 15 year old being much greater than an 85 year old, especially one who was going to die anyway.
Australia was a mistake because of the economic damage done.
He says the baby boomer generation stuffed everything up for today’s youth. Unfortunately he includes global warming in that.
Social distancing is by and large irrelevant to the way the numbers of cases have panned out. I think it’s had a lot of merit in Australia but it cannot continue in areas like sport where contact of some sort is inevitable. The handshake must return as the universal symbol of good sportsmanship.
His mother is 105 and living in London!
22
Pretty hard to refute that I am afraid. Even if you do Gens X,Y and Z won’t believe you. Once all the Boomers are dead it will be Gen X in the firing line. C’est la vie
And please I am simply making an observation, I am not agreeing or disagreeing with the comment.
31
You hear that a lot from the younger generations, ..
What they need to remember is that without some of those “Baby Boomer” decisions,.. they would not even be around to employ their wonderous power of “hindsight”. to make those observations !
50
yep, as if the bulk of then did anything but live their day to day lives making choices and decisons based on how the cards fell that day.
10
Another day, another different high altitude jet stream. Ventusky 30000m. The far South is a 10 lane highway, streaming West to East, the Equatorial is patchy, but normalish E-W, but the far North has stopped just fluffing around, and weakly, but fully reversed, so it is running E-W. Lots of loops. Any experts know what’s going on?
20
Evidence piles up that Xi and CCP wanted the virus to spread to the rest of the world before other countries caught on that it was highly contagious to humans, which amounts to global betrayal of all other countries.
The virus may have been released accidentally, probably, but even if so how does the above not amount to a post-facto opportunistic attack on other countries to maximize international spread and damage from an accidental release?
Beijing has used the virus to inflict economic damage which shrinks the power, capacity, readiness and inhibits the recovery of other countries. They knew this would produce a global emergency if airliners kept ferrying COVID-19 cases out of China. Apparently Beijing decided to make sure that occurred and the UN enabled the CCP to make an actual opportunistic accidental biological attack more effective by lulling the alarm level and setting up countries to do little to nothing effective in time to prevent the spread.
Where was the UN’s trove of excess precautionary principle? Or was it all used up in the AGW fiasco?
If this is not an act of war, it’s certainly become hard to tell the difference. But more to the point, due to Beijing’s behavior since, giving the CHICOMS any ‘benefit of the doubt’ now becomes a fundamental mistake. Even if it was just failure due to incompetence, confusion or a strong racist disdain for ‘foreign devils’, we now have to presume this was intentional and especially that similarly damaging deceptions and ‘deniable’ accidents will follow.
The only solution which leads to improved and functional relations from here is imposing hard-core accountability on the entire Chinese Communist Party system.
For even if it was a mixture of incompetence, confusion, ignorance, or a racist intent towards non-Chinese countries, which led to this global disaster, Beijing has to be held painfully accountable for that. No country can be permitted to get away with what is at best extraordinary criminal negligence, or is at worst an opportunistic pre-meditated attack after the fact of a deadly virus escape.
Seafood markets usually sell seafood, and seafood doesn’t normally carry around a bat virus, so the ‘wet-market’ story looks extremely wobbly and dubious from the start.
160
Vehicle Emissions
Over the last few decades the increasingly tighter vehicle emission standards have put an enormous burden on the automotive industry worldwide.
The emission standards are defined in a series of European Union directives staging the progressive introduction of increasingly stringent standards. Most countries (even those outside the EU) have adopted these standards in their local regulations.
Has it been justified? Has it been beneficial?
To date the standards have been revised downwards at least six times. Each time the new tighter standards have been set they have been imposed on all car companies forcing them to incur enormous research and development costs to revise and improve designs and devise new technology and devices in order to comply.
As a consequence, we are all paying more and more for vehicles in all countries.
But, the very objective of these stringent standards is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as part of the general attack on carbon dioxide in the so-called climate change/global warming activism.
This attack is lacking in logic since there is no scientific evidence that carbon dioxide is anything but a beneficial trace gas in the atmosphere. This gas is the basis of all life on the planet and is certainly not a pollutant as some suggest.
So, how is it that some unelected officials in Europe have managed to hamstring the worldwide automotive industry and increase everyone’s costs on the basis of a lie?
70
A while ago there was a post on this wrt diesels on a machinery blog I read.
It pointed out that the claim was about a 90% reduction in emissions from Tier 0 to Tier 1. Then a similar reduction claim from Tier 1 to Tier 2 – but didn’t say that was of the about 10% missed by Tier 1.
And similar with progressive Tiers.
But with hellish increases in costs.
If you graphed the figures it looks like the best bang for buck was about Tier 2
10
I am happy with the regulations
A lot is to do with NOx and CO and SO as well as heavy metals like Lead.
Its almost impossible to kill yourself by the old hosepipe in the exhaust method these days that’s how clean exhaust fumes have become.
These regulations save thousands of lives a year and that is a good thing. Plus it stops the stink and the smog. Seriously only a putz could object to clean air and a lower risk of lung cancer.
00
What could possibly go wrong ?
An unexpected article from the Age about flying in the time of pandemic in the USA !
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/flying-across-the-us-during-a-pandemic-was-a-breeze-20200502-p54p6g.html
Ohhh well we here in Oz have shut down flights from the USA ( along with most international flights )
So this slackness will not greatly impact us.
But I can’t see any USA tourists coming here any time soon..Not of they have to stay 14 days in supervised quarantine.
11
Don’t want to burst your bubble Bill but I count three jets on route to Australia from the USA and none look like cargo planes .
Also plenty from the likes of Singapore and the UAE to name but a few , there are also cargo planes going back and forth from China not sure if some are carrying passengers I’m too cheap to pay for the extra info on each plane .
61
Lots of cargo freight planes coming to Australia
And departing Australia.
Some going to China loaded with tuna, oysters etc
Some coming from China with PPE I’m told
Which I hope has been assessed for quality control.
Ohhh..And demand for freight has ben so high
That passenger planes have been used.
Those 3 passenger jets could of course
Have people fleeing the USA – refugees !
I’m sorry to say it Robert,
But it is the USA which is in a huge weird
Corona virus ridden infectious disease bubble…
I hope at some point America can resume it’s place
At a leader of the free world.
And I’m not being sarcastic writing that.
I mean it.
24
https://phzoe.com/2020/05/03/co2-versus-global-covid19-response/
42
We probably won’t see a dip in CO2 because of the lockdown.
‘The average residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere is found to be 4 years. Paleoclimatic CO2 variations and the actual CO2 growth rate are well reproduced. Human emissions only contribute 15 % to the CO2 increase over the Industrial Era.’
Science Direct
40
OK. 4 year old CO2 goes bye bye with less CO2 to replace it. Stations should detect it now.
No?
21
I also found a rebuttal to your paper:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/Harde.pdf
My thinking is, natural sinks are operating as normal. If we add less CO2, we should see less CO2. What do you think?
50
As you say Zoe. We add less CO2 but the atmospheric CO2 goes up unchanged! TdeF say anthropogenic CO2 emissions do not influence the atmospheric CO2 levels. He says it all comes from the oceans.
This graph of CO2 levels at Mauna Loa supports his view.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/MAUNA_LOA.jpg
CO2 levels though March and April have continued upwards, apparently unchanged in trajectory, despite the cutbacks in CO2 emmissions.
50
Zoe we won’t see any change in CO2 levels because the human contribution is negligible.
70
Indeed. Yes. That was the point.
50
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RjZSekuYezU
For ES.
10
How did you come up with that KK?
Did you attended the 2017 Canberra Folk Festival? If so I hope you enjoyed it.
I may re-engage about Zoe’e Geothermal Theory at the next unthreaded. No less than Willis Eschenbach has taken her on. But has he been a bit superficial in his criticism? He says that radiation heat loss from the surface should be equal to or less than the thermal conductivity. That seems obvious, but has Willis really read and tried to understand Zoe’s argument? That is what I will try to find out.
40
Yeah, Willis never understood that just because both units are per m^2, doesn’t mean they are the same thing.
Conductive Heat Flux gets it m^2 from k and L. L is at a 90 degree angle to A. Why would you compare radiation from a surface area to something at 90 angle to it?
I worked out the exact formula for comparing the two types of fluxes, and he just ignored and reasserted his beliefs.
I presented empirical evidence, and then he stopped talking to me altogether.
43
Come off it Zoe, I read that thread and others before it, and that’s not what he did, you became needlessly abusive and went much too far with it, and Willis offered strong counters to your assertions. He only stopped talking to you because you were obnoxiously abusing him, and making poor scientific replies. He stopped debating you because you were extremely rude to him, repeatedly, and did not appear to be interested in a proper scientific discussion. Your attempt above to paint it in such terms just shows he was right to dismiss and ignore you further.
101
Maybe so, but I recently tried to engage Willis and he blew me off. I was very polite. I was shocked at his dismissive response to my suggestion that humans might not be causing the CO2 rise.
71
David, do you remember the incident some time ago which involved a discussion about the basics of CO2 involvement in atmospheric heating at ground level.
I remember it clearly and I think Andy made a comment too.
What is Zoe doing here; is it to discuss and exchange or mainly to Promote her Blog. On my last visit to the blog I was treated to a highlighted copy of a conflict she had with Joseph Postma. I don’t know any of his work but recognise the name. Zoe seems to revel in conflict.
KK
20
I’m not promoting the ideas in my blog, but just the blog itself. That’s not an insult, right?
Yes, Postma was wrong about some things. He was also right about many things and I gave him credit for it.
Good science is done with conflict.
I worked on wall street for 10 years. The actual physical street. Well, the office building facing it. Do you know what that environment is like?
If you don’t denigrate others’ bad ideas, and promote yours, you will get no money to play with.
I actually find your criticism very strange. What’s the point of skeptics? Why do they engage in conflict with alarmists? They must revel in conflict! Give me a break.
20
Understand David, not interested in defending Willis, just pointing out Zoe’s claim that he rejected empirical data and stopped talking to her, is not how it went down, and she knows it.
20
“just pointing out Zoe’s claim that he rejected empirical data and stopped talking to her, is not how it went down, and she knows it.”
I see you’re calling me a liar again, and no one is warning you to stop.
Willis’ ideological mathematics predicts a steep slope for water heated from below. It also predicts a slope in the case of the frying pan.
Yet what is observed is that the top and bottom come to the same temperature.
Does Willis acknowledge this? No.
What does he do? He nitpicks little details and forces me to explain them, as if to destract from the central point that his math predicts a steep gradient, and that is not what is observed.
I’m waiting for you to provide the link proving you’re right. But you won’t. You can’t even quote from it, because so will I. You’re trapped.
33
Good science is done with good manners.
Without civility the biggest bullies win, and shouty people dominate the conversation. The smartest voice in the room may be the quiet one.
Let’s make it possible for quiet voices to be heard.
David, like you, we were astonished at how fast one celebrity skeptic ended up using the same tactics the alarmists do. Ad homs all the way.
60
Jo,
Would you be kind enough to weigh in on this matter:
https://phzoe.com/2020/04/29/the-irrelevance-of-geothermal-heat-flux/
I find being quiet doesn’t work.
I discovered something interesting.
I tried sharing it with the smartest, but they turned it down due to prior commitments and ideas.
Now I have to promote something I think is so blatantly obvious.
How best to do it? I’m a busy gal – with young children.
10
Hi Zoe
What exactly is the thing you are trying to prove.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/weekend-unthreaded-309/#comment-2322913
Can you just say it in a couple of sentences.
00
Keith,
“Downwelling IR” is geothermal flipped up-side down. Read my blog for details. It’s why I made it. I got tired of repeating myself.
31
Zoe
I followed your link to your blog in which you say
“That’s not surprising, because the greenhouse gas effect is secretly just geothermal flipped upside down. It’s the biggest scam in climate science, and you heard it here first.”
You also then link to a couple of your other studies. In all this you are assuming that people have been following your progression as you examine this matter, but nowhere can I see one article that covers all your points to make the argument that culminates in the paragraph I highlighted above.
A well crafted paper that summarises your key points logically, without assuming everyone has followed you to the stage you are currently at, would surely be needed if your theory is to be exposed and discussed?
I may have missed it but if you don’t have such a paper then this is the time to write it and you have two obvious audiences in either WUWT or Climate etc. I would suggest Judith curry as the first port of call as you already pop up there.
A paper such as I suggest is not the place to be combative, just state your case clearly and logically and dispassionately
30
Those are all good points, Tony.
The first place I said it was
https://phzoe.com/2020/02/13/measuring-geothermal-a-revolutionary-hypothesis/
“A well crafted paper that summarises your key points logically”
I’m in the gathering stage.
I have more things to examine and explain. I do this one bit at a time on my blog. When I have nothing more to add, I will write a paper.
Some people who read my blog are much quicker at understanding exactly what I’m saying and the implications.
I have ZERO experience writing a serious science paper, i.e. not dull school work.
20
Zoe
It doesn’t need to be a ‘serious science paper’ but it needs to logically lay out the argument, provide evidence for your claims and where maths are involved, set out the equations you have used. ideally it would be useful to point to other external sources to support your arguments.
You can see the sort of length such articles are, the equivalent perhaps of 4 or 5 pages plus diagrams etc. Its also useful to set out in a paragraph and half a dozen bullet5 points what the paper is about and its conclusions, as that will help to focus your own thoughts and which will enable you to ‘sell it’ to someone like Judith. If she is your intended audience I would run it past her first and tell her I suggested you contact her
Do not be combative. That will immediately alienate a percentage of your reader ship and immediately set up two or three people who will start a flame war.
If you need help contacting Judith let me know, if that is your chosen audience. I neither agree with nor disagree with your proposition and would like to see the arguments and evidence before taking a position
20
So one-sided. I suppose he wasn’t condescending to me? Yeah, okay, [SNIP].
I answered all of his criticisms, and he dismissed most of mine.
He became evasive. You are evasive.
You’re not even arguing my science, but my behavior. All behavior is allowed for you boys, but all of mine is rude. Yeah, okay.
You must think I’m stupid and not seeing the game that’s being played.
Are you going to answer?:
“Conductive Heat Flux gets it m^2 from k and L. L is at a 90 degree angle to A. Why would you compare radiation from a surface area to something at 90 degree angle to it?”
I suspect you won’t, and I’m just rude for repeatedly asking it, right?
I was kind enough to admit that Willis was correct from his ideological point of view. The math works.
Can you find any nice thing he said about me? Anything?
What was his response to the empirical evidence presented? Distractions.
I showed him how water comes to a nearly uniform temperature, and hence CHF = 0, and all he could do was complain about the air (different density) and the edges of the container (different density). The fact that his ideology predicts a gradient thorough the water was of no concern to him.
I know what you guys are doing, and I’m disgusted by it. Sorry for being so blunt about it. I don’t want to hurt your feelings.
[ Please Zoe stop the insults ]AD
23
From my response to Peter.
“Could she just explain in a few brief sentences, the concepts involved in her theory of the impact of core heat. What is it she’s trying to show?”
Response? Nil.
If you can’t put it in words there is No hope that a few impressive looking equations are going to have any meaning.
20
AD,
Alright I think I understand. I can’t use the word liar, but others can interject into a conversation and essentially say that I lied. I get the warning. Cool.
11
No, just the false claims. A lot of people here will have followed that particular WUWT post discussion, so I don’t know who you think you’re kidding. Somehow Jo has little trouble being highly-regarded and dealing with the behavior of “the boys”, including Willis. It’s got nothing to do with gender, that’s an excuse for bad behavior in debate. People regularly disregard “boys” who do that sort of thing too. If you won the debate as you think you did (though almost no one agreed) then why misrepresent how your remarks were received?
You do not “see what’s going on” at all, because nothing is going on except with your gender-sensitive interpretation of what is being pointed out. The people saying it don’t care about your gender. And there are quite a few very sharp female posters here and they don’t get wound up by the boys.
You could be a dude, how would anyone know? Why would anyone care?
42
Wx,
I meant you SPECIFIC boys.
Yes, there are many female posters, but none of them are challenging the very basic fallacious premises of climate science. Maybe I’m wrong?
Jo gets a lot of respect. But Jo didn’t cross fields.
I understand that almost everyone disagreed with me. That’s not how science works. I presented empirical evidence, and verified my claim. There was no steep gradient as Willis et al predicts. Why didn’t people agree that Willis et al was debunked? PRIDE!
Do you know how annoying it is to be lectured by people who still believe what you used to, until you learned better?
If I was a man, I would say so.
22
“just pointing out Zoe’s claim that he rejected empirical data and stopped talking to her, is not how it went down, and she knows it.”
I see you’re calling me a liar again, and no one is warning you to stop.
[Zoe he didn’t say that. You did. You are ramping up the language with emotive descriptions. Great way to start a flame war. Use the direct quotes and reply to their exact words. Everything else is timewasting. – Jo]
Willis’ ideological mathematics predicts a steep slope for water heated from below. It also predicts a slope in the case of the frying pan.
Yet what is observed is that the top and bottom come to the same temperature.
Does Willis acknowledge this? No.
What does he do? He nitpicks little details and forces me to explain them, as if to destract from the central point that his math predicts a steep gradient, and that is not what is observed.
I’m waiting for you to provide the link proving you’re right. But you won’t. You can’t even quote from it, because so will I. You’re trapped.
[Zoe, Cool it. I’ve asked the mods last night to pick up commenters who rant, bully, and generally stop the threads being polite. Manners and respect. – Jo]
23
Tonyb,
Thank you for the advise.
What do you think of?
https://phzoe.com/2020/03/04/dumbest-math-theory-ever/
10
Advice.
00
Hi zoe
I read the Interesting article on your blog and the various comments.
If you can write a piece on your own blog that explains in a logical and sequential manner the ideas behind the suggested article, I think your intelligent audience will be able to help you refine it to a stage whereby it can be carried on another blog as a ‘guest post’ and properly debated in a serious fashion
Your ideas are fresh and interesting and I hope you will take the opportunity to present them in a fashion that will give you a wider audience elsewhere. That is not to say that I agree or disagree with them but they are worthy of a wider debate.
Personally I would cut the polemics, otherwise you will merely attract those who want to be combative and derogatory and your work will be taken less seriously
40
Hi Peter,
I was responding to a link put up by ES that showed a favourite group of his called the Orbweavers.
A fairly low key relaxing, folk type group.
My wife and I began going to the NFF in about 1997 and this year was the only one I missed.
That’s where I first saw them, The Hippy Trippys, at the same venue shown in the link. They are magic and we’ve been to many of their performances.
Unfortunately just before the two leaders of the group went to the U.S. last year for the anniversary of the biggest hippie event ever, they broke up.
Sorry about the sound quality.
Our group was booked to perform at the NFF this year but CV19 fixed that.
As to the concern about what Zoe is doing, I have asked her to consider things that she has outright dismissed and tried to cover over.
Could she just explain in a few brief sentences, the concepts involved in her theory of the impact of core heat. What is it she’s trying to show?
No computer, no equations should be engaged in any complex analysis until the pathway has been clearly and logically defined.
That would be useful.
Regards
KK
30
Kalm Keith
May 3, 2020 at 6:09 pm
Awesome KK 🙂
Yes KK, i was unable to comment specifically about Jo’s post on the doctors as she did not provide any quotes in her piece. There were no quotes longer than a sentence if that, so i went into music mode, hence the Orbweavers 🙂
12
Same here.
11
You guys were free to watch the 1 hour of one-sided trite cherry picking and falsehoods and provide all the quotes yourself.
I am not your transcription service, though I do it when there is a video with something worth transcribing.
20
Don’t know about the doctor video somewhat discourse, but as for the Orbweavers….what can i say other than than ‘brilliant’.
Another Orbweaver ‘timeless’ representation.
From: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5el0XrDUW8
“The Orbweavers – The Hook
4,424 views
•Jan 7, 2013
“The Hook is about the end of a season. It was written after finding a piece of rotting wood in our yard, filled with beautiful decay from rain, moss, lichen and small insects living underneath in the hollows, making way for the next season. Reminders of passing time are often in familiar places: out in the yard, on a window ledge, in old shoeboxes. They catch, like the sting of a small hook, pulling from the past.”
10
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5luhdnJ5FPE
Woodstock.
Memories.
00
As a lighting and electronics sound tek, i was out there too, from time to time 🙂
The role of the lighting person was to exactly anticipate when an actual button was to be activated/pressed to produce the appropriate flood of color and so forth. The life of a lighting engineer was associated with an incredible trust…we were expected to know all the subtle emotions lighting can bring…massive responsibility..People often forget the role of our first lighting engineers in the background when everything was analog, and they had to actually press buttons. 🙂
10
Needless to say, playing a few chords on the keyboards while packing up and winding leads is something a sound tech affords at the end of a gig …but nothing more,,two chords max lol.
00
The May peak is the result of carbon emissions from living things – particularly with a N hemisphere bias. It exists in the absence of any other emissions. The levels build upon the base level from late 2019.
So what you are looking for is hard to detect on the scale of the moment and will be reflected by the height of the peak and then how the end of year -2020- trough compares with 2019.
Staring at a graph and trying to determine a change due to a drop in human emissions in 2-3 months of data, when the background has a flux is totally unsuitable
21
CO2 levels will continue to rise, regardless what humans do or have ever done.
https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/OandA/Areas/Assessing-our-climate/Latest-greenhouse-gas-data
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what is your point?
01
I agree that CO2 wiggles depending on the season, but if there is no dip in the exponential rise, can it be argued that most of the CO2 is being liberated from the oceans?
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Define the dip you expect and could you hope to eyeball it with 2 months of data on the other side of the world
10
Yep, nothing to see here, move along.
Residency time is going to be the problem, coal fired power stations are still operating so any dip would be minuscule.
01
‘A growing number of prognosticators expect that global carbon dioxide emissions could fall 5% this year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, amounting to the largest annual reduction on record. But climate researchers say there is little reason for celebration, for people or the planet.
‘CO2 is a long-lived gas. An annual drop in emissions, even one of historic proportions, is unlikely to dramatically change the concentrations of carbon dioxide swirling around Earth’s atmosphere. Then there is the nature of the reductions. Few think draconian economic lockdowns, like those implemented to halt the virus’s spread, represent a viable decarbonization strategy.’
E&E News
00
“CO2, the Chinese virus and the profiteers of doom”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/02/co2-the-chinese-virus-and-the-profiteers-of-doom/
“Eq. (1), informed by these quantities, gives the global warming reduction arising from the drastic emissions reduction caused by the pandemic, on the generous assumption that it is a permanent reduction.
clip_image004
Gee wow golly-gosh! Mirabile dictu!! One whole twenty-fifth of a degree!!! Hold the front page!!!! “
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Clive Palmer has put a full page ad into today’s (hard copy) Sunday Telegraph:
” Palmer buys 32,900,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine for Australians”.
A couple of extracts:
” … donated… to be placed on the National Medical Stockpile”;
“….Greg Hunt announced hcq would be made available if doctors wish to use it to treat COVID-19 patients who re in Australian hospitals.”
…
Personally, I’d like to see it also made available for outpatient use, including by GPs, with zinc and vitamin D as well, but these aren’t mentioned in the ad.
…
Thanks Clive, I think that’s a great gift to the country.
Cheers
Dave B
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“Terry Jackson says:
2 May 2020 at 9:56 pm
Stolen from Powerline Blog, a recommended treatment for COVID-19 by practicing Doctors.
Click to access Treating_Covid-19_in_ER_2_-_April_6_2020_final.pdf
They first go thru a discussion, then outline the treatment. WHO and the CDC are not treated lightly.
”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/04/23/w-o-o-d-22-april-2020/#comment-129155
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“Wuhan Flu: Why is Thailand Doing So Much Better?”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/05/03/wuhan-flu-why-is-thailand-doing-so-much-better/#comments
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And Vietnam, Cambodia. Many more. I can only guess that bat is part of the diet too.
10
So for them it’s not a batastrophe?
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Ian, most of the countries in the area are providing dodgy data and low to almost non-existent testing. Thailand is the only country offering a useful level of testing (besides Singapore and Malaysia). Personally I don’t believe anything Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos or Vietnam are reporting, their numbers are much too cute, and the testing levels are a hopelessly inadequate. These are Thailand’s direct regional competitors, so it’s likely Thailand’s data is also being soft soaped, especially when tourism is such a vital economic factor.
It’s likely Singapore is the only ‘country’ in South East Asia providing reliable data, with Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines the next best, in that order.
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Brunei is providing accurate data I think
They have the resources to do adequate testing
And tourism is not a big earner for Brunei.
Otherwise I agree completely WXC
PS : I keep hearing different stories
from the Philippines via my lady’s Filipino sources.
Again the official stats are pretty suss.
10
I’ve been seeking info from Cambodia, and there is nothing on twitter. Asking a friend he reports that he’s in contact with a relative who left Cambodia recently and says there are deaths in the street that are not counted or reported.
I expect that will be the way in most of the developed world. See ecuador stats where deaths were 350% worse than officially tallied.
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Jo,
From my experience with Cambodia in visiting Angkor Wat over a decade ago I would suspect that it is still disorganised and still suffering from the carnage of the seventies.
Vietnam isn’t the same and are very pro active and capable.
They are side by side but are very different in population and government.
Having said that, at another level, I find it very hard to believe that there have been no CV19 deaths in Vietnam when the population is 95 million.
KK
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South Australia Opens up after 10 days with no new coronavirus patients!
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/south-australian-playgrounds-to-reopen-after-coronavirus-free-streak/ar-BB13ww0p?ocid=spartanntp
Wow. This seem to vindicate Jo’s elimination strategy. Noe SA has to keep transmission out from neighbouring states.
SA has only about 5 main roads and 1 airport as likely sites of entry plus a railway line. Easy enough to place quarantine roadblocks.
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1.3 million people in Adelaide. And so amazingly isolated geographically. Like Perth. It is a place where the virus can die quickly by simply not infecting more people. A cause for real celebration.
As we realise it is gone, we will find that going back to life is quite easy. But caution is required.
I am looking forward to a season with the latest Flu, without whooping cough, measles and all the other viruses spread so flippantly and ignored. And perhaps a change in attitude by the medical people away from herd immunity and towards new technology in detection at points of entry. As an island, there is no reason for us to suffer from the latest creation in the virus market in the Northern hemisphere.
There should be some advantage in living on the other side of the planet with no history and so few people.
60
There have been 3 occasions of
Local community transmission in SA
Barossa Valley
The Adelaide airport Qantas ground staff
A Western Suburbs shopping center.
All three outbreaks were isolated quickly.
About 1200 Qantas ground staff at the airport
We ordered into 2 weeks supervised isolation.
The entire Barossa Valley & it’s towns,
Were isolated from the rest of the State
With more severe restrictions on local within the Valley.
In fact the Marshal Liberal government were so competent
In this crisis, I may even vote for them next time.
🙂
53
SA has lots of roads and lots of airports dont kid yourself. Just luck of the draw and human nature in regard to what happens next. Hopefully nothing or else its off to the races again.
00
Great news, hoping WA, NT and QLD get there as well in about a week.
00
“In addition, if you look at other natural disasters, you can usually find help or comfort from people around you. However, it is the people around you that are the threat in this case. So there is no consolation there.” (Professor Dame Til Wykes, King’s College London)
This quote captures just one gaping issue with unprecedented decisions: how the hell do you know what the effect is when it is time to go back to acting as before? The lockdown is the unprecedented bit of this situation not the virus, which, whilst novel, is not without much similarity to regular occurring and annual event over many centuries.
The dilemma we now face demonstrates every good reason why we try as a species and individuals to plan and we do not embark on short term risky thinking if it can be avoided. Risk can never be eliminated or stopped and we are taught from very early age by those around us just what that means and how best we can reduce it. By adulthood we have learned that people and things around us can pose risks to us just as we may sometimes pose risks to them. Civilisations live through social trust to mitigate risk but that trust now seems to be something we are in danger of losing to a virus that hasn’t suggested it is anything much different to its many and several antecedents which we managed without lockdown. It certainly isn’t a plague.
Are we lacking normal levels of risk perception, and, if so, how has that been allowed to happen? From my perspective we should be determined never to lose risk perception again and most certainly not to enter into ideas that somehow short term measures are the answer to long term risk. We should determine never to be so fearful and alarmed that we lose touch with the need for equanimity.
Covid-19 has made fools of us, IMHO.
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Weather lass
I said this to you since the start of lockdown. The scientists always practice the ‘precautionary principle’ and the Imperial report took this to extremes, based on very little data and on the extraordinary assumption that the govt would do nothing and hence 500,000 people would die, which then dictated any more sensible govt policy.
Social distancing, hand washing and masks would all have been sensible from the outset. Testing, isolation and quarantine also essential. A recognition of needing to control clusters-care homes and hospitals very necessary- but was somehow excluded from official advice.
We also had very likely clusters in the early days arising from packed supermarkets which the authorities didn’t pick up on. Also quite why, to this day, the expert believe it is ok for 15000 people a day to land at Heathrow from virus hot spots, travel on public transport to their homes, go to the supermarket for provisions and generally mix with everyone else, is beyond my comprehension.
Scientists and experts are great, but sometimes they don’t have a lot of common sense or live in the real world. Who on earth decided it was a good idea to close parks or stop people sitting on benches to get much needed vitamin D?
You said; From my perspective we should be determined never to lose risk perception again and most certainly not to enter into ideas that somehow short term measures are the answer to long term risk”
Yes indeed. We need to evaluate risks, put them into context, look at the effects over a wide range of related issues and if necessary adjust our plans accordingly. The devastation we are causing ourselves is immense. It will take a generation to recover unless we start to ease the lockdown immediately. The trouble is that people have been scared witless by relentless govt propaganda that a majority are afraid to venture out.
112
Don’t forget, Boris dithered. He believed in herd immunity too.
70
So did the Nederlands/Holland. Now on 40,000 cases and 5,000 dead.
30
Dramatic and selective using absolutes. They are higher than some and lower than others who have locked down in terms of rate of excess of deaths. Better than a lot of the larger countries and slightly worse than Sweden. There are lots of different stories around the EU depends on your slant I guess.
22
Again Lass; not disappointing. Sensible ideas.
21
In the Australian, another well qualified scientist in the chemical physics of proteins and the like, a Nobel prize winner no less, gives his appalling opinion on the economic cost of Australia’s shut down. Incredibly qualified, he also guarantees that deaths in Israel will not exceed ten. They are currently at 265, so only out 26x. In his hero country Sweden of comparable population he is wrong x 260.
This is a real problem though, the numbers men who work on deaths per million of population. The UK nearly needed a new PM despite the fact that at 55 they had one of the youngest PMs in recent history and a new father.
I am appalled at the numbers men who think 260, 2600, 26,000 lives are all nothing as long as you get herd immunity. What was a rationalization of the polio epidemic has led western society to be blase about flu deaths, last year 60,000 people in the US.
What about saying no and stopping this appalling loss of life? The numbers men are against it. Unless, I assume, it’s their life which is counted as lost.
This is the arrogance of those who are not under threat. They do not care how many lives of other people are lost for their comfort and the all important ‘economy’. It gives capitalism a very bad name.
33
“What was a rationalization of the polio epidemic has led western society to be blase about flu deaths, last year 60,000 people in the US.”
47000 in the UK in 2014 without shutting don the economy. Yes, should we routinely just accept these huge numbers?
41
And worse, the herd immunity people are actually using the massive flu deaths to belittle the importance of Wu Flu deaths. What’s another 10,000 people?
Do they even begin to think these are people, real people who die horrible deaths for nothing. It’s not old age. Boris Johnson’s doctors thought he might not make it. What value does this society put on people? Every life matters. That is the principle of our Judeo Christian society.
You wouldn’t think so to read some of the comments. It explains how the Holocaust happened. Not my problem. For this virus, older people are untermenschen even if they built the world everyone now enjoys. And this is their reward?
62
Thank you TdeF
You say it so straight
Revealing their specious logic
For the Cr@rp it is.
32
Actually its quite reasonable logic. Depends if you want to go for the feels all the time as if in the real world nobody dies.
11
But with that sort of logic the use of seat belts would never have become mandatory. Why get emotional about it and insist on seat belts? People die of car accidents all the time so why impose financial costs on car makers and added economic costs to buyers just the retrain the freedoms and liberty of those in the vehicle forced to use them? The govt just wants to wreck our way of life.
When I grew up life mattered more than money and business.
30
What sort of logic? I fail to see the connection. There are a vareity of approaches getting a variety of responses, each criticised from entrenched position as is the modern way. Many nations are experiencing zero excess morbidity yet join in the wailing.
I guess we can wring our hands and say all lives are valuable and pretend that we are somehow personally affected by the 100’s of thousands that die every day in the world. It smells to me a lot like the climate alarmists virtue signalling to me. The world rolls relentlessly on, like it or not it comes down the demographics and trends and all the faux personal involvment stuff eveaporates pretty quickly.
10
We make changes and get better at dealing with new phenomena via continuing to proactively adapt when issues arise. Some are good at it and act to develop working solution, and some do not. Discounting that as goin for “the feels all the time” seems to miss the point. it is not going for the feels, it’s being proactive, so that next time we do it even better.
We manage and engineer problems into non-problems.
Seat belts did not stop road fatalities, but it deduced them a lot and made it easier for many others to fully recover. And there was a cost in doing that, but the US Govt deemed that people buying them mattered more than car company profit levels. So the .gov mandated effective solutions be developed, proven and adopted into production vehicles, hence automobile crash-test dummies, and destructive testing, and crumple zones in cars, not just seat belts. Cars became a lot safer and they were still affordable.
00
“Petty Tyrants”
https://rosebyanyothernameblog.wordpress.com/2020/05/01/petty-tyrants/
They who can’t patch the potholes have a little list
21
Willis is of course writing from California, the land of fruits and nuts.
When Californians move away, and they do lately, in large numbers, the states they
move to are Californicated. Colorado is exhibit A, with Idaho advancing on the rail.
The immense size and wealth of the US seems to allow folks who would be minor
municipal officials with necklaces and ceremonial duties only in another time and place to
wield great power despite their room-temperature IQ’s.
A favorite so far is Michigan, where the Governor is forcing her citizens to shelter in place
in urban high-rise buildings, where it is deemed unsafe to use the elevator, and prohibiting them from traveling to and staying in
an isolated lake cabin they may own or rent in the northern part of the state.
Where stores are open for “essentials”, but certain products are then roped off and unavailable for purchase as being non-essential.
This woman gave the Democratic response to the State of the Union, and has serious aspirations for the vice presidential nomination.
We have been able to survive generations of mediocre leaders because our government here really didn’t do that much; It is terrifying to think that this woman has constituencies that have been pleased enough with her political performance to date to put her in office, and are still supporting her.
While it is difficult to devise a coherent libertarian response to a pandemic like this given an incident like the malfeasance of China, it is
also difficult to see these nincompoops emerging as the leaders of the free world.
71
Never fear, you aren’t alone.
That disease in alive and well in Australia.
Is there a vaccine.
52
“COVID Stats”
https://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2020/04/18/covid-stats/
10
“How washed up hippies and panic wrecked the country”
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/05/03/how-washed-up-hippies-and-panic-wrecked-the-country/
“And before the usual dogmatic curve flattenists dismiss Levitt as a right-wing white supremacist homophobe or something, they should read the whole commentary – from the source:”
Link there
21
Not a good week for solar electricity generation. Per OpenNEM, average for large and rooftop solar combined 1600 MW vs 2100 MW average YTD.
Last Thursday was the lowest with a peak of 4900 MW at 12.30pm, 2900 at 9am, 1900 MW at 4pm.
And therein lies the challange of keeping the lights on with more and more intermittent “renewables”.
As wind and solar generate power unrelated to demand, the reliable generators, hydro, gas and coal, must quickly ramp up and down to balance supply and demand.
30
Further confirmation that we have gone loopy as a civilisation.
Renewables have never been about saving the planet or providing electricity: it’s always been about special interests and skimming.
30
Making the rounds in the US and has now popped up in Asian Times:
https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/why-us-outsourced-bat-virus-research-to-wuhan/
An odd twist to the Fauci saga.
30
Too dangerous for the US labs to handle
So Fauci outsourced the research to Wuhan.
No doubt the Chinese loved the help.
I wonder if there was any oversight of this financial assistance
And by whom ?
But now Fauci is the USA national expert
On dealing with the the CCP virus which got out of the Wuhan lab !
The USA is always puzzling…
20
Here in Victoria the teachings of the CCP have been embraced by Maj. Andrews for it is becoming apparent that the meat works outbreak in Brooklyn has been ongoing for four weeks and kept secret just as the Wuhan playbook encourages.
30
What sources are you suing Serp ?
00
Just ran the numbers from OpenNEM comparing April electricity generation for 2019 and 2020:
2019: 15,662 GWh
2020: 15,463 GWh (down 1.3%)
Solar large + rooftop 6.7% to 8.8%
Wind 7.9% to 9.4%
Hydro 5.9% to 7.9%
Gas 7.3% to 6.8%
Coal 72.2% to 67.1%
But the big change has been in prices, from AEMO:
NSW from $78 to $40/MWhr
Vic from $98 to $35/MWhr
If only we could see drop that in our electricity bills.
Unfortunately, in Victoria, the Essential Services Commission has set Victorian maximum retail prices (the default offer) for all of 2020.
30
Notice Aus has covid problems with meatworks. Here is a Canadian example ..
“85% of workers afraid to return as Alberta meat plant preps to reopen after COVID-19 outbreak, union says”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cargill-reopening-1.5553751
10
Unfortunately farmers cannot afford to keep feeding herds if supply chains are interrupted. Herds of chickens are being treated in the same way.
10
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/29/millions-pigs-and-chickens-us-factory-farms-face-cruel-deaths-covid-19-sparks-mass
00
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/04/14/peta-addresses-chicken-slaughters-amid-covid-19-staffing-shortages/2988115001/
00
In more interesting non virus news
https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/environmental-tick-for-wa-renewable-hub/news-story/9529bd7d0a33788a5f748a6301502dad
Only 20,00 hectares need clearing. Imagine doing that for a dam or a couple of coal plants.
20
In the US, a long history of “consent of the governed” stretching back to 1776. As the CV-19 saga unfolds, enough time has passed for some things to gradually sink in which have driven the “rebellion” in some US States. The most important ones are:
1. the goal avoiding being overwhelmed has been attained regardless of by natural or unnatural (lock downs, separations, etc.)
2. actual facts, however distorted, are emerging so that “highest risk” populations are firmly identified
3. understanding of government actions are always slow, delayed, based on bad data and false modules then over react to avoid political fallout and, in the final stage, declare how good they are/were
And then there’s a growing set of reports like this one even in foreign papers:
https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/global-virus-lockdown-was-madness/
Part of the issue(s) are many of the orders have the average person wondering if a mentally challenged person wrote them. Such as banning even spouses that have been married for 60+ years from being with their spouse that had a heart attack and died in the hospital as the survivor sat at home wondering if any one would call.
Also, the fact that truck drivers have been routinely posting online how they intentionally drive by hospitals on their journeys and observe no vehicles, lines or activity along with the comment(s) that the systems nearly everywhere are not even burdened. And then there’s all the staffs that have been laid off.
Thus, for better or worse, governments are, again, not nimble, thinking or even rationale.
30
From above;
“Some people who read my blog are much quicker at understanding exactly what I’m saying and the implications.”
Translation; “very intelligent people will agree with me”.
And
“I have ZERO experience writing a serious science paper”.
Without saying the obvious, that comment was triggered by Tony asking for a paper: all I asked for on several occasions was a couple of sentences outlining your logic.
It never happened and I don’t believe it will ever happen because the “exercise” has simply been based on a flawed UNIPCCC conceptualization of global warming.
KK
00
Presumably this is a widowed response to an excised Zoe post; agreeable advice.
00
No, I just wanted to move it away from the hot zone.
00
It is Tuesday and we are 246 comments into a “weekend unthreaded” ..and still going… ?..
00