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Large antibody study on US baseball teams finds only 0.7% infection rate

With 1.4 million confirmed infections about 0.4% of the United States has had a known infection. But we know testing is inadequate given that there is such a high positive test rate (14% of all tests so far are positive). So we know the real rate of infection is higher than that.

The group that did the Santa Clara antibody test have run another test on 5,600 baseball employees and this time found only 0.7% carry the antibodies. The researchers were surprised.

About the only message we can really draw from this is the US is a long way from Herd Immunity, and as the US reopens there are twenty to fifty times as many people who could still catch this.

LA Times: Fewer than 1% of MLB employees test positive for COVID-19 antibodies

Of the 5,603 major league employees who submitted to what researchers called the largest national antibody study to date, only 60 tested positive, researchers said Sunday.

The researchers announced an estimated positive rate of 0.72% after adjusting the results for what they said were false positives and false negatives.

Still, the minute percentage of positive tests provided a data point as scientists determine how wide the coronavirus has spread within the United States. Bhattacharya said he expected a larger positive rate.

“The epidemic has not gotten very far,” he said. “We have quite a way to go.”

There are many caveats. This test is still not random, nor as Steve Sailer notes, does it appear to be published (can anyone find it?). The adjustments are still large. The Santa Clara test found 1.5% of those who answered an advertisement carried antibodies to Covid-19 in that high risk county. The authors corrected for postcodes but not age, and estimated that was really 3 -4%. Here, perhaps responding to the criticisms of their first study, they adjusted the 1.1% result down to compensate for the false positive rate.

Most of the antibody studies struggle with randomizing their data, and selection bias. They often draw on higher risk groups like pregnant women, homeless people, or attract in the high risk people in high risk areas. This study had more white men aged under 65.

Ultimately antibody tests may not be much use as long as the infection rate is so low it in the same range as the false positives (around 0.5%). It’s some use to public health officials, but not to the people who got tested. Around half the positive tests may be false — which is not much help to employers or employees looking to get people back to work. They only have a 50:50 chance the test is right.

But the message is that even if as many as 2% of the US population had been exposed to Coronavirus, 98% haven’t been.

The lack of any closed borders or mass mask wearing has cost the US dearly.

Things worth knowing about Coronavirus:

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Large antibody study on US baseball teams finds only 0.7% infection rate, 7.5 out of 10 based on 40 ratings

213 comments to Large antibody study on US baseball teams finds only 0.7% infection rate

  • #
    dinn, rob

    the Chinese virus, part 1:
    Chinese government is pumping an estimated $10 billion into Confucius Institutes annually
    https://balance10.blogspot.com/2020/05/chinese-government-is-pumping-estimated.html

    20

    • #
      Geoff Croker

      Vietnam

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-13/coronavirus-vietnam-no-deaths-success-in-south-east-asia/12237314

      “There was an honest realisation and reporting by the Government from the beginning of January about the limited clinical resources available if this epidemic took hold, so Vietnam was swift in trying to keep the outbreak under control.”

      Vietnam took measures at least 4 weeks before us, their “dumb” commy committee were “less dumb” than the LNP and ALP and ALL other media driven democracies, this bodes well for biz with Vietnam. They even outdid Jo Nova. Only by a few days but they are a committee. Maybe Jo was the the beach for the first week in January?

      No health system and hate of China saved them from imposed government economic destruction. They simply had no other choices.

      110

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Vietnam has an interesting “management”.

        They closed borders with China early and pounced on two outbreaks that I’m aware of.

        http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/did-i-say-disruption-was-coming/#comment-2288684

        KK

        41

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        That link you’ve provided Geoff is well worth the visit.
        Perhaps our politicians could learn something from it.

        Strange that a nominally communist country has approached the problem like that in contrast to the Australian political meme of domineering, controlling Super Pollies there to save us.

        Actually the only thing “strange” in this is on the Australian end where politics reigns supreme and common sense is hard to find.

        KK

        10

  • #
    Curious George

    The experience from cruise ships and an aircraft carrier shows that not everybody exposed to the virus gets sick. Some people get infected but stay “asymptomatic” – that shows in an antibody test. Do we have a way to determine how many people exposed to the virus don’t get infected at all?

    150

    • #

      Based on how this swept through nursing homes and other long term care facilities, we know that when those with co-morbidities are exposed, both contagiousness and fatality rates are high. No one seems to know the fraction of those exposed who do get infected and recover with few, if any, symptoms. Knowing this combined with the availability of effective treatments, letting herd immunity build and quickly identifying new cases for quick treatment may be the best and fastest way to get long term protection for the most vulnerable who still need to be protected until herd immunity builds. Given the apparently large number of asymptomatic carriers, isolation and/or social distancing will need to continue indefinitely which is intolerable as it will destroy economies, is an impediment to achieving herd immunity and goes against human nature.

      53

    • #
      Fin of The West

      Could the reason for some people not getting infected, or even asymptomatic, be down to blood type?

      40

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        There seems to be some recent research on that suggest that A type bloods have a higher risk than O type bloods:

        Jiao Zhao, Yan Yang, et al. Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility.

        The results showed that blood group A was associated with a higher risk for acquiring COVID-19 compared with non-A blood groups, whereas blood group O was associated with a lower risk for the infection compared with non-O blood groups.

        https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2

        30

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Perhaps those who didn’t “submit” to the test did so because they may have suspected that they had “it”.

    This illustrates, once again, the seriously flawed understanding of the term statistics.

    When the basic pool of circumstances from which the numbers are drawn is so confused, how can you call that a valid study.

    It seems more like an advertising gimmick than a scientific study.

    KK

    131

  • #
    TdeF

    The press are still banging on about herd immunity being reached soon, notably in Sweden. This is the way of the future.

    And Sweden and Switzerland stayed neutral in WWII. Someone else’s problem.

    Deaths are up 10% since last week to 3,300. Tolerable apparently. 27,000 cases, they expect to have 40% exposure by mid June.

    The warmer weather, open windows, more UV, more outdoors lifestyle will help. Locking up the older people in fact looks to be a death sentence for them.

    So in another 4 weeks we will see the results of the great experiment. I just have no idea how they come up with ‘herd immunity’ and 40% exposure in another four weeks? Who is doing these calculations? Journalists? Politicians? And at the same time it appears the government is not mentioning herd immunity.

    Perhaps they should calculate the cost of each life against the change in GDP? And make a financial decision. What happened to Christianity?

    The journalists in the Australian would seem to agree as they pile on the pressure to let the virus cut a swathe through society when we are so close to total success.

    1714

    • #
      TdeF

      Really, 27,000 cases, even doubled in the next four weeks to 60,000 cases is only 0.6% of 10 million people.

      Does anyone have an explanation for how the Swedish government is increasing these figures x 100 to 4 million infected people in another 4 weeks? To get there you would have to argue that over 99.9% of all infections were completely asymptomatic. (given that 80-90% of the 27,000 are already asymptomatic)

      1511

      • #
        TdeF

        Incredible. Three red thumbs for asking a question? It’s surprising that the trolls are out so early and that fact based opinions are offensive. Or a mouse click is the absolute limit of their ability.

        1312

      • #
        Aaron Christiansen

        “(given that 80-90% of the 27,000 are already asymptomatic)” – where did you read that?

        I am only guessing here:

        This could go some way to explaining, I think? Basically, you only get tested if you’re in a hospital, +/- local regional capacity for testing. Potentially lots of asymptomatic people out there and people with mild symptoms not being tested.

        If they extrapolate (admittedly a dangerous strategy) and say 10% need hospitalisation…

        Who gets tested in Sweden?

        The two groups who are supposed to be prioritised in testing for the coronavirus are people with symptoms of the virus who are ill enough to need hospital care, and people working in healthcare or elderly care who may have the virus.

        At the moment, people with respiratory or cold symptoms but not in need of hospital care are not prioritised for testing, but instead are asked to stay at home while they have symptoms to reduce the risk of spreading the infection.

        The decision on which groups are tested is made by each region’s infectious disease physician, so it may vary slightly based on regional capacity.

        143

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          was just looking at this..past couple of days. Just for fun.

          …part of the UK satire response….Ferguson et all (just for banter in these times) (hope this is not too experiential and so therefore just a light side…) Humour is indicated…
          Corona, Corona, Corona! – A Booty Call.
          6,356 views
          •Premiered May 6, 2020
          From: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUfesigqVo8

          11

    • #

      ” Locking up the older people in fact looks to be a death sentence for them.” Lack of exercise, fresh air, and sunshine impeded recovery for injured veterans in Florence Nightingale’s wards in the Boer War. We have no concept of what progress means when these attractive techniques are forbidden. Indeed, it makes death the obvious point of the exercise.

      10

      • #

        Then there is the point of whether that 22% of the population matter ethically, economically, or as part of the social fabric eh?

        I’m skeptical too John.

        01

  • #
    Broadie

    About the only message we can really draw from this is the US is a long way from Herd Immunity

    or

    the antibody test has found that 0.7% of Major League Baseballers have been exposed to Corona Virus.

    How many died? or were hospitalised?

    163

  • #
    MrGrimNasty

    In 1950/51 the England and Wales excess death count for the 3 winter month flu season was more than twice that for the first 6 weeks of CV19 – so definitely worse.

    The 1950/51 death rate growth was explosive in places like Liverpool, but it died out without a lockdown.

    It spread to Candada and New England in a similar fashion, but then let the rest of the USA off a lot more lightly.

    No expert modeler or anyone else can know how CV19 will progress.
    We do know that every other corona virus epidemic has run its course and vanished or become manageable.

    Obstructing its progress is futile, it has to run its natural course or we will still be hiding from it 2+ years from now and people will be getting REinfected whilst living in misery in a broken economy/society.

    324

    • #
      Evidence Please

      Mr Nasty, you should be happy then to offer up your elderly relatives for the greater good.

      617

      • #
        MudCrab

        Mr Please,

        you should be happy then to offer up your source of income, your sense of self worth and the wellbeing of your children for the greater good.

        Intentional Self Harm. Kills thousands each year.

        Wuhan Virus. Kills tens.

        175

        • #
          TedM

          Because of closed borders, lockdown and the fact that the bl**dy thing arrived here in our summer.

          53

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Bugger I’m afflited by Red Knuckle disease !
        Please count it as a green E P !

        59

      • #
        H.B. Schmidt

        Mr Nasty, you should be happy then to offer up your elderly relatives for the greater good.

        Appeal to emotion ad hominem attack.

        Seriously, if it’s not Covid-19 that kills an elderly patient because they’re elderly and predisposed to chronic as well as infectious diseases, something else will. How do you value an elderly person’s life compared to an unborn baby’s (re: abortion) or a young adult who’s lost their job, small business, potentially their home, life savings, and all the other chronic issues resulting from prolonged anxiety and stress over a contagious disease that’s inevitable in being contracted? Do the cost-benefit analysis, then get back to me.

        154

        • #
          Evidence Please

          [Snip]AD Schmidt,
          Disagreement is not an ad hom attack, please look it up.
          It doesn’t just get the old, It’s hard to look after your family if you’re dead.

          83

        • #
          Bright Red

          I like “life years lost” as a measurement. Are you really saving someone’s life if they die from the same or similar thing in the near future or have you just delayed the inevitable for a short time.

          53

      • #
        yarpos

        The ultimate stupid argument. In what weird logical universe does that even make sense? perhaps instead of a an economy wide shutdown we could say quarantine the at risk instead of quarantining the world, instead of nonsensical options like throw everyone to the wolves just to try and distract and build a sense of drama, without really offering anything constructive.

        82

    • #

      The 1950/51 death rate growth was explosive in places like Liverpool, but it died out without a lockdown.

      Yes. Covid kills as many as the worst flu season even after a major national lockdown is put in place. Even though incoming flights are 3% of normal, it’s still seems to be enough to stop the UK rates declining.

      More evidence that Covid is far worse than the Flu.

      1310

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        The UK in the early 1950′s was afflicted with massive atmospheric smog
        Because of the use of coal in open fires all over the country.
        This impacted on everyone.
        But many died of flu.
        In the years following the entire nation moved away from burning coal in open fires.
        And the deadly Winter smog disappeared.
        Meanwhile my own parents in Liverpool had had enough of the smog and the cold
        And migrated to Sunny warm Australia.

        65

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    The other conclusion is that without a good test regime in the US, you are forced to use these extremely small, unrepresentative studies.

    The Chinese plan to test 14 million in Wuhan this week.

    That is a grown up response.

    618

    • #
      Dave

      Rubbish Peter, Wuhan only has a population of around 11 million!

      134

    • #
      TdeF

      How would you know?

      56

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      14,000,000 test in 7 days?
      Lets call it a 12 hour day.

      166,666 tests each hour. 2,777 tests per minute. 46 tests per second.

      That’s a tonne of organisation right there. I’d like to see that happen.

      142

      • #
        Mike Jonas

        Greg Cavanagh – If I change the wording of the initial statement very slightly to reflect reality, then I suggest that you can see how the number 14 million can be achieved easily and why you wouldn’t particularly like to see it happen:

        The Chinese plan to report 14 million tests in Wuhan this week.

        101

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        But CCP Chine being CCP Chia
        It may indeed happen so.
        Wait & see.

        24

      • #
        Bright Red

        14 million people have no problem voting in a day and the sample collection probably takes less time to complete.

        24

    • #
      Murray Shaw

      Peter, that’s 83,000 per hour.
      Still the difference between an announced plan, and the actual result may be huge. Remember the Opera House!

      63

      • #
        JanEarth

        Murray Shaw

        The Chinese would have built the opera house in 6 months

        It would then have fallen to pieces 10 years later

        121

        • #
          WXcycles

          It would then have fallen to pieces 10 years later

          It would then have fallen to pieces 10 months later.

          FIFY

          72

    • #
      yarpos

      The CCP says lots of things, I prefer to observe what actually happens

      71

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      11 or 14, doesn’t really matter,

      What I’m saying is that the US is not testing anywhere near the proportion of the population it needs to.

      They are behaving like a failed state

      610

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Peter I agree the USA is behaving like a failed state.
        The Federal government instead of being the avenue for getting rid of this CCP virus
        Has become a stumbling block.
        Politicising a major infectious pandemic disease
        Is not the way to unite America and destroy this CCP virus.
        Is this really what the Republican party wants for America ?
        It must lead to a massive Democrat resurgence in November.

        29

        • #
          Richard Ilfeld

          You might want to consider the logistics of a “Lockdown”in the US, once a virus is established.

          The population is about 320 million. It is dispersed over a land mass about 3000 miles wide and 2000 miles high, with 8,000 miles on international coastline,
          much less that 100 miles from another country.

          The US has to maintain a food supply chain, and energy supply chain, basic household needs, law and order and emergency services. Energy and food production must contiue,
          some for export if we are not to bugger our neighbors. That’s a lot of folks on the move.

          We have a number of populations living independent of some or much of the social order, from Indian reservatons to illegals to oddballl out-of-the way religious communities. These collectively number on the order of 30 million.

          We’re going to continue to maintain an active military organization and supply chain of several millions.

          We still have some things we have to do, like hurricane prep, ordinary medicine, and modest recreation.

          With a tradition of liberty, if .1% of folks resist, that’s 300,000 recalcitrents to deal with. The actual number is larger; I’d be shocked if the basement services
          black market involves less than 1.000.000 folks giving haircut, fixing cars, and printing flyers….doing handyman jobs and generall ignoring the government as much as possible.

          “watch, test, and contact trace” like a “lockdown” is an aspiration to reduce the rate at which the virus spreads, and give us time to build better public health
          as we open up. We have reached a point where it will run its course, at some rate, unless we gain a cure or a vaccine.

          “Lockdown” is now more a scam than a policy, and there is massive, through very quiet, civil disobedience; cell phone tracking suggest a quarter of us ignored a stay-at-home
          order a some point last week.

          The people of the US are coping with circumstance; most of the leadership is not and the commentariat has all taken stupid pills.

          41

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          It must lead to a massive Democrat resurgence in November.

          If that’s a bet, Bill, I’ll take it.

          11

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            I’m not a betting Sam.
            And frankly It’s not what I want to happen anyway
            .
            But the Trump chaos is helping the Democrats
            Gain an very unexpected victory.

            It was only a couple of months ago we were all watching
            A divided & leaderless Democrat rabble going nowhere.
            No they know they can win; that the issue is the virus
            And Trump’s chaotic handling of the virus.

            14

  • #
    ImranCan

    Jo – if only 1% of the USA have been infected, with 85,000 deaths that means the mortality rate would be about 2.6%. And that’s just the deaths that have happened. Given the lag time between infections and deaths you could reasonably assume the current infections might double this death count. That would mean a mortality rate of 5%.

    Obviously this isn’t true. Even if you divide the Australian confirmed infections into the Australian deaths you only get a mortality rate of 1.4%. And that would assume you have tested everyone who has been infected.

    102

    • #
      TdeF

      The average death rate is very dependent on the victim’s age. The virus in America has cut a swathe through aged care homes in Seattle and New York.

      92

      • #
        yarpos

        and Sydney

        puzzled why people die in nursing homes and are not transferred to the specially set up and specialised Covid wards we closed hospitals to create

        90

        • #

          Imran, and note I said if 2% were infected that still means 98% haven’t had it. I’m not taking the 0.7% as gospel. I suspect it’s an underestimate.

          When you say “obviously this isn’t true” referring to death rates, what do you base that on?

          I think the death rate is more like 0.5 – 1.5%.

          Australian death rates are among the lowest in the world. We’re a first world nation with high Vit D and low case load, also mostly only infected in 20-80 age group, not the older two decades. It isn’t going to get much better than here unless HCQ or other treatments work (which they might).

          Given that our testing rates are so high, the mortality rate of 1.4% is a bit ominous don’t you think? If the virus got loose in the 80+ group here, it would be higher.

          95

          • #
            Clyde Spencer

            Jo
            you remarked “… even if as many as 2% of the US population had been exposed to Coronavirus, …” Under these difficult times, it is hard to come up with reliable statistics. However, your estimate may be unnecessarily pessimistic. A Dr. Osterholm suggests “… we are currently in this country somewhere between five to 20 percent of the population are infected. Only in very few locations is it as high as 20 percent like New York.” [ https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/transcript-michael-osterholm-on-intelligence-matters/ar-BB141F17 ] If he is right, that doesn’t negate your concerns. However, it does put a point on my remark about how unreliable all statistics about COVID-19 are. We probably have the best handle on deaths, although there are many reasons to question even them. Probably the least reliable statistic, because of the known high percentage of asymptomatic cases, is the total number or percentage of people who are now immune and contributing to herd immunity. Dr. Osterholm had also remarked, “… from what we saw in Europe and what we see in the United States today is about 80 percent of those people will actually have very mild to hardly noticeable illness.” That suggests that the known cases represent only about 20% of the actual percentage of people infected. Worldometer indicates a total of 1.4 million cases in the US; assuming that that represents the 20% with severe symptoms, it suggests a total of 7 million people have been infected. That is about 2% of our 331 million population, supporting your estimate. However, I think that all numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.

            00

          • #
            ImranCan

            Hi Jo – thanks for your comment.

            The reason I said that a 5% mortality rate was obviously not plausible was because it doesn’t fit with some of the good datasets that we have. In New York City we know that there is a 21% infection spread and 5% death rate would result in 90,000 deaths which is many time more than they have experienced in the city. The Diamond Princess ‘experiment’ had 712 infections and only 12 deaths. That’s a death rate of 1.7% only. And this is a population comprising mainly people in their 60′s and 70′s. In fact over 540 people from that group on infections were over 60. So a figure of 1.7% will be very high for a ‘normal’ population.

            I have built a simple age dependent mortality model using the datasets that were available. The average country mortality varies from about 0.4-0.8 for the West, 0.2-0.3 for SE Asia and around 0.1 for Africa. (Australia and NZ are at about 0.45-0.5) As more and more data has become available I update the model but it has been quite robust. You can access it here – its very simple.

            https://hectordrummond.com/2020/04/30/guest-post-john-church-update-on-diamond-princess-lombardy-model-for-predicting-mortality-and-infection-spread/

            I take your point about vitamin D. Indeed my model focuses on the primary variable of age, but there are lots of others including sex, obesity, ethinicity, vit D prevalence, BCG etc etc. As a starting point the model is OK.

            00

        • #
          WXcycles

          and Sydney … puzzled why people die in nursing homes and are not transferred to the specially set up and specialised Covid wards we closed hospitals to create

          6,980 cases in the whole of oz.

          98 dead in the whole of oz.

          and

          3,059 cases in NSW.

          47 dead in all of NSW

          And only 24 of those died in Sydney: https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-lhd.aspx

          This doesn’t indicate any particular problem developed in Sydney.

          71

    • #
      RickWill

      US has 376,723 resolved cases. Of those cases, 83,336 went too morgues. That is 22%. There are 16,431 critical cases in the US. About half of those will end up in morgues.

      My view is that the death rate with good medical care is around 1.5%. Based on this factor and 83K deaths so far, there have been 5.6M people in the US infected.

      The way I arrive at the 1.5% death rate is the lowest death rate in countries with effective contact tracing. To be effective it needs to by hunting down almost all virus costs. Taiwan death rate 7/440 = 1.6%; New Zealand death rate; 21/1497 = 1.4% (2 still in critical care); Australia 97/6498 = 1.5% (22 still in critical care).

      81

      • #
        bobl

        Nope, Not a chance. On Apr 23 the NY Governor reported that 21.2% of NYC residents had been exposed (using random antibody testing) with a state total of 2.7M just in NY.

        https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html

        Given that the study must have been from the weeks BEFORE Apr23 we can probably conclude this number is centred around say Apr 16 at which point NY had 226000 cases. Its now May 13 and NY have 348000 notified cases 348/226*2.7= 33.7% exposure. Or around 4.5 Million in NYC alone. Thats around 11.8 times the notified cases. In the rest of the USA there are about 1.1 Million more notified cases so the lower limit is 5.6M with an upper limit using NYC spread of 16.5M exposed or around 5% of the US population.

        Note there is another source that gives NYC exposure as between 19.9 and 24.7% see here

        https://www.amny.com/coronavirus/latest-antibody-study-report-shows-up-to-20-of-nyc-residents-had-covid-19/

        I think the 19.9 is an outlier, so it seems we have 21.2 (22nd) 24.7 (Apr 27) that suggests that now 16 days later the rate should be around 24.7 + 16/5 x (24.7-21.2) = 35.9% of NYC exposed.

        NY is getting up there with its immunity it will be between 34% and 36% exposure. with around 4.9% exposed per week, we can probably expect a 60% exposure in NYC in around 5 weeks and 80% in 3 months.

        Anyway its clear (to me) that the number of people exposed is way more than 5.6M in the USA.

        41

        • #
          yarpos

          seems to conflate NY with USA

          22

          • #
            bobl

            Er How did you get to that, NY on 22 Apr had 2.7 Million antibody positive people, now that’s likely expanded to about 4.5 Million, NY has 350000 cases of the total of 1.4 Million reported cases. SO adding 1.1 million actual reported cases outside NY to the 4.5 Million in NY means there are at least 5.6 Million cases USA wide. What about that conflates NY with USA?

            The only point that could conflate NY with USA is taking the undetected cases (4,500,000-350,000) and drawing the extrapolation that the same ratio applies to all US cases. Well it doesn’t but its definitely somewhere between 0 and NY (12) times which leads to an exposure rate somewhere between 5.6 Million and 16.5 Million.

            I haven’t conflated anything, I didn’t say it WAS 16M I gave a range so what I’ve said is perfectly justifiable

            My point was just to prove that exposure to the virus is probably much more than 5.6M which would be the lower bound for the estimate based on the evidence.

            61

        • #
          RickWill

          No one should take antbody results as meaningful, or indeed, antibodies as imbuing immunity:
          https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930052

          Whether the presence of antibodies to COVID-19 grants immunity remains unknown.
          People are probably not getting reinfected, and any positive results on retesting are more likely a result of residual viral RNA.
          The FDA’s relaxed standards and emergency use authorization for antibody testing was “a disservice to us” because of potential cross-reactivity with other coronavirus antibodies.
          For antibody testing to work in a disease that affects 2%-3% of the population, we need a test with at least 99.7% specificity.

          62

          • #
            bobl

            Hmm yet another pessimist ignorant of how immunity arises – if there are antibodies then there is sensitization of the immune system to the virus IE some degree of resistance to the virus! If the antibodies don’t confer resistance then neither will a Vaccine or Plasma antibodies. So you are HOPING for a worst case scenario, Finally Jo has published lots of evidence that Plasma antibodies do help, this is immunity in action. How much evidence do you need Rick ?

            Immunization on exposure is real Rick

            81

            • #
              RickWill

              How much evidence do you need Rick ?

              Clinical evidence will be convincing. I am not alone in requiring that standard:
              https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-09/Could-the-ground-breaking-UK-blood-plasma-trial-help-treat-COVID-19–QkpanJkJOw/index.html

              A major new trial has begun in the UK to test whether blood plasma from COVID-19 survivors could help treat those critically ill with the disease.

              “This is absolutely ground-breaking” said Mike Murphy, Spokesman at NHS Blood and Transplant, which is leading the blood plasma donation programme on behalf of the government.

              I guess you can tell these researchers they are wasting their time as you already know the answer!

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                bobl

                If they are trying to prove it works then yes, they are wasting their time, plenty of evidence of that. It’s my suspicion that they are probably trying to determine how WELL it works so practitioners can choose among therapies EG Plasma vs HCQ for example. If this is what they are doing then they are not wasting their time.

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            • #
              RickWill

              Hmm yet another pessimist ignorant of how immunity arises

              If aimed at me it is missdirected. I am an optimist. I take great pride in the results achieved in Australia in the CV19 battle and my small contribution to that result. I am highly optimistic about the future in Australia.

              I believe Australia took a good look at China nd Taiwan and followed their lead in controlling the virus. It is sad there are other countries not willing to take lessons from winners.

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          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            And so, Rick, the Herd Immunity hypothesis remains just that; an hypothesis.

            We are currently observing a real life or death experiment.

            The World’s mythical Ethics Committee is having virtual apoplexy, I’ll wager.

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        • #

          Bobl, but was the NY antibody testing random?

          My understanding was that they asked people in supermarkets. hence they were still not reaching the people who had self-isolated the most and were mail ordering food and staying home.

          A higher proportion of those they tested may also use public transport, which would amplify the numbers.

          The self selecting bias in almost all these antibody studies defeats the reason for doing them.

          The baseball study was interesting (if still flawed) because it sampled across the country, and good a high response rate. Though without many older and younger people, still isn’t representative.

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          • #
            bobl

            According to the newspaper reports they tested people going to a supermarket, that seems pretty random to me. How many people do you know that are not sick and don’t go to the supermarket for food. Its more likely that people doing that are under quarantine because they ARE sick which suggests your cohort would increase the exposure rate, rather than reduce it. I agree that they might be missing a small cohort of preppers. It’s certainly a lot more representative than testing Pro baseball players living on californian acreage.

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    …or its less infectious than people first thought, which then raises more questions.

    Hmm….

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    Some time ago I mentioned that the information available points to one of two possibilities:

    i) If only a small proportion of the population has been infected then it is not so easily transmitted after all and it can be controlled by improved interpersonal hygiene and only a limited need for social distancing. No need for draconian containment or elimination measures.

    ii) If a large proportion of the population has been infected then it is too easily transmitted and too mild for most people for draconian containment or elimination measures to be necessary or likely to succeed.

    The data which most commentators would need to support their recommendations would show a quite different pattern with high infectivity and a high level of severity such that China and other nations could not have limited their cases and deaths as well as they appear to have done. Nor would there have been such a similarity in the shape of their curves for a variety of nations with different levels of avoidance measures.

    The differences between national figures appear likely to be mainly attributable to testing and recording differences plus aggravating features such as overwhelmed local health services, population age profiles and care home vulnerabilities.

    Bear in mind that nations which have been successful in keeping the old and frail alive will have a larger pool of vulnerable citizens so nations with historically good medical systems can have higher infection and death rates than nations that have ‘allowed’ their old and frail to die at younger ages.

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      OriginalSteve

      Yes, and I think the theatre was designed to keep people scared and was a major part of all this.

      And right out of the 9 / 11 playbook, was non-stop saturation coverage to basically “brainwash” people. The MSM get a dishonourable mention of course ( as always ).

      The aim I think was to try and implement a tyrannical global control grid.

      The fact that globalists like Gates are pushing so hard for mass vaccination as a condition of resuming basic human freedoms makes me immediately suspicious.

      Fauci and Gates appear to be joined at the hip too. The globalist influence is unsettling.

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      • #

        ORiginalSTeve, Keep the suspicion of Fauci / Gates and of their declarations that there is absolute need for a vaccine as the “only” answer.

        Fauci’s choice in flying the virus in, and still not closing borders doesn’t fit with medical info but does fit with a man who might prefer widespread low level infection. It appears to be what he is aiming for.

        Be wary of the claims of theater. The media did not do non-stop saturation — not in February when they told us “it’s just the flu” and they didn’t tell us what was going on in China that indicated 80% of the Chinese economy was closed. The idea that this virus is just theater doesn’t not fit with what thousands of ICU doctors are telling us. What if this is a far bigger scandal — what if an actual novel nasty pathogen was being used to “scare the masses”? Wouldn’t knowing that change our response?

        Wouldn’t Trump be set to fail in the worst way if he and some key supporters were fighting the wrong war — convinced that the virus was not dangerous, their response meant Covid kept destroying the economy month after month until Trumps greatest asset in the 2020 elections was ruined?

        The biggest favor a Trump supporter can do for him at the moment is to study this situation carefully with an open mind so their view of reality is as accurate as possible.

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        • #
          bobl

          Jo, there is THEATRE going on, just like the climate wars, there are some actors, probably the same ones trying to make out that this is far worse than it really is. I have many times laid out the simple measures required to maintain control AND have an economy, the state closest to doing that is WA. Having a quarantine village on Rottnest Is is exactly what needs doing, but local cases must go there too! In QLD we should do the same with Hayman Is resort.

          There do seem to be elements, even here who think that having an economy is capitalist nonsense and optional, basking in the vast government overreach that has occurred – especially the denial of our rights of movement and our rights of assembly, this violation of our constitutional rights being shouted from the highest media Ivory Towers (Especially the Ivory Tower in Ultimo). This is where the theatre is coming from.

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          • #

            Bobl, indeed. There is a theatre within a theatre.

            Glad you agree there is a need for Quarantine. The big battle now is the UK and US. They can’t do The Rottnest Island option. It’s too late for track and trace and isolate. They sabotaged their best chance by keeping Borders Open.

            The immediate goal of globalists — who’ve been hit horribly hard by this virus — is to use this to get rid of Trump in 2020.

            As long as Trump is not beating the virus, the globalists are winning. The virus will wreck the economy and it will be worse with the slow bleed “flatten the curve” option as I have said all along.

            It is a concern that many fans of Trump don’t appear to recognise the danger here. If they downplay the virus, but it causes real damage, then that misalignment with reality will bite in the worst possible way.

            The US has not done a proper quarantine, despite the horrible cost. It has been sabotaged. No state borders. No national borders.

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            • #
              Bill In Oz

              I have ben saying this for about a month.
              But so many US Trump fans seem oblivious.
              The Dimocrats have been gifted
              the USA Presidential election in November.

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              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                I’ll take that bet.

                Yes, the Democrats in the various states that they hold are doing whatever they can to polarize and accentuate the difference. They have a very good reason for that. Misdirection. Ex-president Obama is in the frame.

                Many of them will be in front of the courts for treason or similar, come November.

                The USA is a very different democracy to the Westminster democracy. They play their politics harder. Dirtier. They hold to their individual freedoms and liberty far more tightly than do we. That’s because we’ve been subjected to decades of socialist education, influencing, indoctrination – maybe even, dare I say, brainwashing.
                Come November, it’ll be the treason and sedition that will bring the Democrats to ruination.

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              • #
                Orson

                Well, the stats oriented and Leftist leaning website fivethirtyeight heralded special elections in Congressional districts for the US House, this past week, as future November indicators. Democrats lost both by double digits in California andWisconsin. I believe these districts went Obama/Hillary by 8 or 12%, previously.

                Of course, if Democrats shelter much more and Republicans don’t, thus skewing turnout, then this won’t mean much. But this is not nothing, and it indicates enthusiasm, contrary to media claims, remains with Trump’s party, the Republicans.

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            • #
              bobl

              I DO agree on the need for a proper geographic quarantine, the Rottnest approach IF we are to take the suppression approach. I always have! and IN AUSTRALIA I think that can be sustained, especially if more sensitive tests can reduce travel quarantines to 3 days (and I think it can)

              I still say though that simultaneously minimising death rate and time to herd immunity in this situation (where there is no and probably never will be no Vaccine) is mathematically the least cost path (Minimum lives lost from start to end And minimum economic cost). It’s just mathematically so. There are some possibilities, chances only, that suppression could beat the math, that’s if the NH Summer extinguishes the infection, or a vaccine emerges. If the Virus survives into the next NH winter I think the slow bleed to herd immunity will be inevitable and we’ll visit the real cost of flattening the curve

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              • #
                bobl

                PS Jo, Para 2 doesn’t apply to Island nations such as Oz and NZ where it might be possible to sustain a quarantine for many years. Despite a higher toll from suppression, we may be able prevent the progression to 80% exposure indefinitely. In N Asia, N. Europe and N America where it’s pretty much impossible to do what we can do here a slow grind to 80% exposure may be inevitable save the NH summer doing what it usually does.

                The NH summer will be telling I think.

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              • #

                bobl, don’t buy the line that only island states can maintain quarantine. We have satellites, drones and air forces. The globalists want everyone to believe they have no control over their borders.

                It’s harder but doesn’t have to be impossible.

                What might be hard (and for Australia too) is if someone was determined to bring in a vial of virus through a legal flight. Terrorism. The solution to that is to do our own government funded research so we can stay a step ahead of the threat. Monoclonal antibodies are promising. The terrorist threat can be circumvented if we keep quarantine up along with sentinel random testing, have a treatment ready to go, and are fast to lockdown small outbreaks with a pandemic plan.

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                Bright Red

                “We have satellites, drones and air forces”. So Jo are you advocating for even more totalitarian enforced lockdowns and removal of our freedoms?
                .

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              • #
                bobl

                Sorry Jo but most countries have porous land borders and without walls and a substantial no mans land I don’t think you can contain cross border infections in cold climates. There are millions of people pouring across the US Mexico border for example, none of these illegals will quarantine.

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              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                Sorry Jo but most countries have porous land borders

                Doesn’t have to be that way.

                Just ask Viktor Orbán.

                10

            • #
              MP

              Jo what makes you think this is not part of their plan, that it wasn’t deliberate.

              Yeah off topic, But you started it.

              22

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                I think a good case can be made for the argument that it was, opportunistically, incorporated as a modification into the plans of the globalists, the socialists, the Communist and the Democrats (in the USA).

                Communist China adapted quickly. It’s using it as a means to extend its hegemony.

                The socialists are loving the authoritarian high that this gives them and are looking to ensure the recovery policies further their socialist objectives.

                The Democrats are desperate to use this as a distraction – misdirection – to what’s coming down the pike for them, as in Obamagate and the associated treason.

                11

    • #
      Strop

      Looking at Belgium, where there’s been more than 8,700 deaths with more than 53,000 cases.

      Compare that to their usual flu season that has approx 600 deaths from approx 600,000 cases.

      If only a small portion of the population caught it (53,000) then it has a death rate of 16% and needs to be contained.

      If it spreads easily, and has a low death rate like flu (0.1%, that means 8,700,000 people have it in Belgium out of approx 11,500,000. Based on 8,700 deaths. Therefore it is significantly more contagious than flu and needs to be contained.

      Or, if 75% of the population seems high then it’s likely that it has a more significant death rate than flu and needs to be contained.

      Whatever the reality (more contagious or higher death rate) the figures show there are more than 10 times the number of deaths than Flu and it should be contained.

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      • #
        yarpos

        If you look at Denmark , Estonia, Austria, Germany, Finland then the story look different. Just like the climate wars its possible to select the data that suits your argument.

        When looking at some of the mortality data some of the contrasts in neighbours struck me.

        Portugal vs Spain
        Germany vs France
        Wales and Scotland vs England

        In each case the former performing much better than the latter

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        • #
          RickWill

          In each case the former performing much better than the latter

          There was an international football match between a Spanish team and and Italian team in Milan in February. Spain had 6391 confirmed cases when they locked down on 14 March. Portugal had 642 confirmed cases when it lockdown on 18 March – following what was going on in Italy and Spain. Both countries had very impressive exponential decay in cases after lockdown but Spain started from an order of magnitude higher number of cases.

          Germany has tested 2,755,770, more than twice as fast as France. Both countries have similar number of confirmed cases but France has many more deaths because it was predominantly picking up and isolating those with serious symptoms.

          London is a global hub (still) with a population of 7.2M and population density of 4542/sq.m. Glasgow and Cardiff are small backwaters by comparison with lower population densities.

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        • #
          Strop

          Yarpos, you’re comparing covid-19 between two different countries. I was comparing the flu to covid-19 in the one country. Which seemed relevant on the topic of whether we need avoidance measures, because we don’t specifically avoid the flu. Although there are vaccinations available to the more vulnerable if they choose.

          Happy for you to cast the comparison net wider if you feel Belgium was too “cherry picked” and see if covid-19 appears either more contagious or not, or has a higher death rate or not than flu.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Here is a country which I suggest you think about Stephen – Vietnam.
      Vietnam eliminated this virus even though it shares a 1400 ks. border with China.
      No cases for a month !
      How ?
      A united government focussed approach
      It acted early and hard.
      Stay home !
      Wear Masks outside
      Wash your hands
      Stopping the virus became a patriotic duty !

      And this low cost approach worked.
      Schools have re-opened.

      Meanwhile in the USA your various governments are at odds with each other & individuals are still fighting each other over whether it is a pandemic infectious disease.
      Bugger !

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-13/coronavirus-vietnam-no-deaths-success-in-south-east-asia/12237314
      The bars & tourist industry in Vietnam are already reopening.

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      • #
        Sapel Mirrup

        Almost!
        According to a source just checked, from 16th April onward, Vietnam had 2 new cases on the 24th, 1 on the 3rd May, then another cluster of 17 manifested on the 7th May. Since then, none.

        Still… compared with us, that’s pretty good. The Vics need to get their act together.

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        And their testing/care is free.
        In the US (according to Time magazine) getting a dose of the virus will cost you $34,927.43, and (according to USA today) a test will cost you $3,270.00
        Measure that against the average US salary of $33,000
        Do not forget that medical insurance is tied to your job, so 33 million just lost that.

        Will that skew the statistics in the USA? Hard to see how it couldn’t

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      WXcycles

      No need for draconian containment or elimination measures.

      This is such false nonsense.

      It got to Australia via jets and ships.

      Infection spread ended when we stopped the import, and isolated at home, then socially distanced at all other times.

      And we were not “draconian” about it, just cooperative and sensible.

      BTW, ambitious and early Austria‘s daily spreading went back up to 6.6% today, which is the highest in all of Europe. They’ll need to reintroduce restrictions soon. Without long enough and strict enough isolation to totally burnout the cases present in a country, plus strong borders and quarantine to prevent reentry to the country, the disease just reinfects.

      Containment and elimination measures are and will remain absolutely necessities, until effective, affordable antivirals are in mass production globally.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        WXC Austria is in the EU.
        Austria has no border control.
        That’s a major problem with this disease.
        The constant flow of people over the borders
        Bringing disease
        Replicates the situation when the Black Death
        Arrived in Europe in the 14th century.

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          The spread of this disease and it’s causative virus
          Reflects the triumph of globalism.
          ( It t’was the Globalists who fought hard to pressure ScoMo to not close the borders.)

          And here on this blog we are seeing the Globalists fighting back
          With misinformation and fake news.
          To try and restore the old Globalist way of doing things
          The only problem is that it brings disease and death with ti.

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      • #
        Aaron Christiansen

        “And we were not “draconian” about it, just cooperative and sensible.”

        More than 140 people have been fined across Victoria for breaching self-isolation or social distancing laws so far this weekend.

        Of the 751 spot checks carried out at homes and businesses by police, almost one in five were found to be breaching the recently implemented laws.

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Better that some are fined
          Than that many get sick & die !

          But perhaps that is not a major concern for you ?

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Australia’s Covid-Safe appears to be a bumbling lightweight…is this what was in the works all along?

    And also used by the UN….oh yay…..

    https://www.covipass.com/#AboutCoviPass

    “COVI-PASS™️ can manage the end-to-end (including product tagging) process from test to secure Digital Health Passport. COVI-PASS™️ is agnostic to any Covid-19 test brand or source, and can integrate with all global COVID test manufacturers.

    “During this global Covid-19 pandemic, the world is searching for a secure solution, to hold test, immunoresponse information, and vaccination details for now and into the future. COVI-PASS™️ has been developed to be the world’s most secure Digital Health Passport solution.

    “Through unique biometric access, users are allowed access to their health and immunoresponse information.
    “COVI-PASS™️ safely facilitates safe return to work and life.

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    • #
      yarpos

      Sounds like the pet passport your animla gets when you take it overseas. Details all its records , vaccination and chip detailed. Always struck me they knew more, with greater greater certainty, about our cat than they did about me.

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      • #
        Orson

        Perhaps. But people forget that immunisation passports for international travel were NORMAL before the mid-1970s.

        Once an effective vaccine is invented, then they can gladly disappear, again.

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  • #
    TdeF

    Without testing the other 25 million people, you can easily guess at the maximum number though, as nearly a million tests have been done in Australia with a result of 0.81% infected. This would have been of people likely to have been at risk or referred by doctors for displaying symptoms and it is still under 1%. The real rate may be much lower.

    And so normal isolation plus voluntary isolation would go a long way to reducing the spread and the rate of infection of this killer virus. And I doubt the cafe society has reached Birdsville. And the inland is a lot hotter and dryer than the coastal cities. And of course the prohibition on travel. Plus the whole of Australian society is on alert for people with coughs and symptoms.

    The people pushing herd immunity or ‘just another flu’ are comparing the deaths from this virus over weeks with National lockdown with deaths by unrestrained flu over a year. That is rubbish logic.

    This is not just another flu. And no one is anywhere near herd immunity in any country. Whole countries are in lockdown for very good reason. The streets in Delhi are empty. Even in the US, the total infection is still 0.3% of the population but the deaths in a few weeks exceed the flu for the whole year. Still it is growing, still exponentially in many countries. Internationally this is only the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.

    Multiplied by the population, unrestrained there would be another 3 million people dead in the US and millions more serious casualties and an overwhelmed hospital system and there is no reason to believe it would stop there. The flu doesn’t. People accept that it comes back each year but still I read of ‘just another flu’ and ‘herd immunity’. These are the feared innumerati who can barely operate a two button mouse.

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    • #
      Aaron Christiansen

      “with deaths by unrestrained flu over a year”

      Did you mean “seasonal” flu?

      ie flu that occurs seasonally?

      ie primarily during certain seasons and not others?

      I get your point but sometimes you do seem to forget salient elements of the opposing argument…

      I realise Sweden and everything they do is wrong, but their Season 2018/19 Influenza report specifically says,

      Influenza epidemics recur in Sweden each winter

      The detail further down confirms,

      “The epidemic started in week 50, 2018, and the peak was week 6, 2019, with 9.8% of calls due to fever in children. The epidemic ended in week 16.”

      So here are the stats: 9 weeks to hit the peak, 8 weeks to decline.

      17 weeks of flu season, not 52.

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      • #
        Aaron Christiansen

        My bad 19 weeks. 9 weeks to peak, then 10 to decline.

        Two button mice are so 2000, mine has 3 buttons and 2 scroll wheels ;-)

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      • #
        Aaron Christiansen

        It will be very interesting to see if COVID-19 follows the same pattern as seasonal flu in Sweden.

        9 weeks to hit the peak (so far deaths/day peaked after 5 weeks) and 10 weeks to decline.

        Do any of the anti-Sweden commenters want to offer a threshold of new COVID-19 cases/day averaged over a week that would satisfy a “this is over” criteria.

        If they hit (and maintain) that threshold within 19 weeks would any of said commenters be at least prepared to consider COVID-19 followed a similar trajectory to seasonal flu? We could equate their lax lock down measures to the ~50% seasonal flu vaccination that is also noted in the 2018/19 report, even though this swings the trajectory to the anti-Sweden’s favour IMO.

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        • #
          OriginalSteve

          The US military noted that receiving the flu vaccine made soldiers 36% more likely to contract coronavirus.

          Hmm…..the law of (un)intended consequences?

          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31607599

          “CONCLUSIONS:

          “Receipt of influenza vaccination was not associated with virus interference among our population. Examining virus interference by specific respiratory viruses showed mixed results.

          “Vaccine derived virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus and human metapneumovirus; however, significant protection with vaccination was associated not only
          with most influenza viruses, but also parainfluenza, RSV, and non-influenza virus coinfections.

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    • #
      bobl

      Thou doth protest too much methinks…

      Who exactly are you calling innumerati TDEF when YOU incorrectly state the US infection rate as 0.3% of 329,000,000 people (987000) when antibody studies in New York Show that on Apr 22 over 20% of the NYC population is antibody positive – 2.7 million people in NY (state) or 0.8% or the US population exposed in NY alone! If we can validly extrapolate the wild/reported case ratios to the rest of the USA this implies that there are at least 10 times the number of wild cases as reported so this suggests 14 Million or at least 4.2% of the USA population have been exposed so far. A long way from herd immunity (except in NYC where I estimate immunity is around 34-36 % as of today)

      Innumerati? examine thy self.

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      • #
        TdeF

        Typical misdirection.

        NY is the worst place in America and you say this is a ‘valid’ extrapolation? Nonsense.

        And the report I saw was small and tested people at supermarkets in NY, clearly people who want to be tested and that means people who have a concern and in an area of high incidence. Extrapolating that small extremely biased non random sample to the entire population of America is complete nonsense.

        As Australia has proven with this virus, corral the known cases and new infections stop. That means there is no mass infection outside known cases. We have 6,500 infections in 26 million people, so 0.025%. And total infections across the US is only 1/330 or 0.3%. Innumerati.

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        • #
          bobl

          Read it again, I said IF its a valid extrapolation, and gave a range from 5.6M to 16.5M given that the worst hit places are cold high density cities similar to NY Its not 5.6M (representing a wild population of zero outside New York, and I think its closer to 16.5M. Just my opinion of course, but its just math.

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    • #
      yarpos

      well they are lossening the leash in the US now, we will await the millions of deaths I guess.

      31

      • #
        bobl

        It depends where and how each state does that, In the southern part of the US the situation is pretty similar to ours, its warm there already and case rates are (and always have been) low, even heavily populated Florida is doing pretty well, these states are like NT here. Contaminated tourists also tend to fly over fly over land. These states can get back to work now. Along the cold Atlantic coast and in the north they need to be much more careful, but they are coming into summer and the virus IS weather sensitive. (Jo’s posting clearly shows that outdoor transmission in hot areas with high UV is drastically reduced). There will be a spike as they let up, but as the weather warms it’ll still recede.

        I think Trump is banking on Summer, and my guess is that he’ll be right.

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        • #
          WXcycles

          It depends where and how each state does that, In the southern part of the US the situation is pretty similar to ours, its warm there already and case rates are (and always have been) low, even heavily populated Florida is doing pretty well, these states are like NT here. Contaminated tourists also tend to fly over fly over land.

          And yet again, with your complete lack of COVID-19 infection data to backup your already falsified thesis, you wheel it out once more for another spiel. I’ve already shown in detail that COVID-19 infection rates are higher in hotter countries.

          But Florida is special right, because you said so? That’s great.

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          • #
            bobl

            Except I already showed you where you are wrong. Show me any warm country with more infections than the USA? I’m not going to bother running through your false relationships again.

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  • #
    Ross

    You cant make any worthwhile conclusions from any studies like this. There are too many uncontrolled , unknown variables and the sampling is probably biased. You can theorise or make academic comments , which at the end of the day are useless.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Ahh Ross
      You are in the do nothing
      Let it rip
      Red thumb gang ?
      No facts & no evidence will ever satisfy you.

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      • #
        bobl

        … And you remain ignorant of the simple Math that shows that a simultaneous minimization of death rate and time to herd immunity produces the minimum total deaths.

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        • #
          RickWill

          Math that shows that a simultaneous minimization of death rate and time to herd immunity produces the minimum total deaths.

          Look how quickly and effectively “herd immunity” was achieved in Taiwan:
          http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=Taiwan&show=-10&trendline=none&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7#countries

          That result was achieved with just 440 cases in a population of 24M. That makes R0 for Taiwan 1. 0000833. They must have had a less virulent strain than Australia where it took 6600 cases iwith population of 25M before herd immunity kicked in making R0 for that strain 1000264.

          Italy had a much more sever strain where it required 220000 cases in 60M before the herd immunity kicked in corresponding to R0 of 1.00368.

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        • #

          C’mon bobl, it’s not about simple maths. Without even using a calculator we know that total minimum deaths are going to be lower in Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, Norway, NZ, etc etc.

          We don’t use herd immunity against a lot of diseases and for a good reason. Think Ebola, rabies, Cholera, RSV, norovirus, hanta, lassa, SARS etc etc etc.

          11

          • #
            bobl

            Those diseases are not like this one, most of those diseases require a more direct contact and not particularly contagious and often have a narrow climatic survival range. EG Ebola is almost unheard of in cold climates. BTW this disease IS SARS. This disease is spread like the Flu, and from experience there is a good chance it will reach herd immunity whether we like it or not. What we do will determine how many lives it takes along the way.

            If progression to herd immunity is a given then the simple math tells the story. Like you however I prefer to take the suppression road in the hope that the NH summer or a vaccine might extinguish this SARS like it did SARS V1.

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            • #

              Glad to hear you like the suppression option.

              My point with Ebola is that it was extinguished without herd immunity, and though this virus is so much harder to extinguish, we have paid that price, done the harder work, at least in some countries, it is theoretically possible.

              Ebola was not so infectious til that last three days, but it was controlled by some of the poorest nations on Earth.

              12

      • #
        yarpos

        Thats the extreme you choose to invent for the drama value Bill. There are many poosible approaches but of course only your way is correct and all others must be denigrated.

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  • #
    TdeF

    And for those who think the lockdown is unjustified and overreaction, have a look at these pictures of the world’s reaction to the worst pandemic in a century

    45

    • #
      yarpos

      Just for balance why not also show pictures of Woodstock? that proceeded during the HK flu epidemic of the late 60s and 1970. That outbreak killed more people globally and in the USA than Covid.

      52

      • #
        TdeF

        So what is your point? I am showing that the world is in lockdown. All countries.

        No one did this with any flu, so whatever your opinion of the seriousness of this and WHO assured us there was no reason for concern, the streets of the world’s biggest cities are completely empty. And in India, I have no idea where they put all the people.

        What that means is that every government in every country and the people in those countries in the millions are in total disagreement with the idea that this is just flu.

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        • #
          TdeF

          And the point that lockdown has prevented tens of millions of deaths so far is being used as justification for no lockdown? Really?

          How many have to die before this serious? As far as I am concerned, one is too many. Especially if it is me or someone I know.

          This is a declared pandemic and I read it’s not so bad after all?

          32

  • #
    RickWill

    The linked chart:
    https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/fig1_stockholm_cases.png
    Is used as proof that Stockholm, Sweden has reached herd immunity resulting in the daily number of cases being in steep decline in May.

    Actual antibody testing in Stockholm indicates about 20% of people have been infected. So there is now a claim that herd immunity threshold for CV19 is 20%; as if the reproductive rate is a fixed number.

    What many people fail to recognise is cause and effect. Five restaurants were closed in Stockholm on 27 April for breaking separation rules. I figure that sent a strong message to other establishments. Is it surprising that the number of cases presenting in Stockholm has declined in May? – not to me. Is it anything to do with herd immunity? – I doubt it.

    The proven way to crush CV19 is to take the reproductive rate to zero. Deprive the virus of hosts. So remarkably simple!

    52

    • #
      Curious George

      I am not sure I follow you – do you mean modern machine guns?

      21

      • #
        RickWill

        I am not sure I follow you – do you mean modern machine guns?

        Guns is one way but you end up with more bodies than letting the virus run because it does not kill every host.

        The best way is quarantine. The virus can be crushed in a month if those infected are separated from those not infected. If you do not know who is infected then you separate every individual from all other individuals. So simple. Results in only a few bodies to dispose of – those infected before the quarantine began whose immune system was not up to the challenge.

        32

    • #
      TdeF

      Yes, and there are many good reasons the rate would drop which has nothing to do with the mathematically improbable herd immunity.

      Summer and all that implies. Limited isolation is not working. Norway and Denmark are doing much better. And the Nederlands has dropped the herd immunity fantasy.

      Family pressure. Fear. Community pressure. And a growing awareness that sooner or later, you and your family are next. And now you know someone who has died because you wanted to party.

      Suddenly going out to a party or a drink with mates is not as attractive as it once was. And the idea that people only stay home because of strict policing is ridiculous. Such policing as there is, as with all policing, is only there for the tiny % of the population who have no concern for others. And the huge no go migrant areas in Stockholm where policing is impossible and where likely massive infection rates will impact the rest of Stockholm. As in Paris.

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    • #
      Aaron Christiansen

      “So there is now a claim that herd immunity threshold for CV19 is 20%; as if the reproductive rate is a fixed number.”

      Nic Lewis proposes it may be as low as 17%

      “The proven way to crush CV19 is to take the reproductive rate to zero. Deprive the virus of hosts. So remarkably simple!”

      So simple and yet…

      I may be reading this chart wrong (and thanks for bringing it to my attention previously) but…

      The options are embedded in the URL, and include:
      “10 lowest countries”
      “New cases 1 wk avg”

      The list of countries includes:
      Cambodia – 0 cases
      Trinidad & Tobago – 0 cases
      Hong Kong (I’d live there except…. China is right next door and very aggressive about who own HK)
      Vietnam
      Uganda
      Burma
      Liberia –
      Brunei – 0.4 cases
      Togo
      Guyana

      As far as I can tell, 2 countries have 0 cases averaged over the past week.

      41

    • #
      bobl

      The claim of herd immunity at 20% has some support. In NYC the infection rate also stabilised at an exposure level of around 20% (I estimate NYC currently running at around 35%)

      52

  • #
    RickWill

    The Fawlty Towers based script for the UK handling of CV19 has a new twist. French citizens are exempt from the UK quarantine:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52610594

    In updated advice issued on Monday, the government confirmed that people will be asked to self-isolate for 14 days and to provide an address when they arrive at the border, other than those exempted.

    Passengers arriving from France will be exempt from forthcoming UK coronavirus quarantine measures.

    Given that France has got down to just hundreds of new cases a day, I guess the French pose little added risk in the UK. France imposes quarantine on non-european visitors – they obviously view the rest of Europe as presenting little risk!

    51

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      A bit of humour…..sort of….the whole scenario reminds me of the Monty Python scene where the knights arrive at the castle and are taunted by the French soldier….

      http://www.montypython.net/scripts/HG-tauntscene1.php

      “ARTHUR: Well, what are you then?
      “GUARD: I’m French! Why do think I have this outrageous accent, you silly king!
      “GALAHAD: What are you doing in England?
      “GUARD: Mind your own business!
      “ARTHUR: If you will not show us the Grail, we shall take your castle by force!
      “GUARD: You don’t frighten us, English pig-dogs! —Go and boil your bottoms, sons of a silly person. I blow my nose at you, so-called Arthur-king, you and all your silly English knnnniggets. Thppppt!
      “GALAHAD: What a strange person.
      “ARTHUR: Now look here, my good man!
      “GUARD: I don’t want to talk to you no more, you empty headed animal food trough wiper!…… I fart in your general direction! . Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!
      “GALAHAD: Is there someone else up there we could talk to?
      “GUARD: No, now go away or I shall taunt you a second time-a!

      60

    • #
      WXcycles

      Given that France has got down to just hundreds of new cases a day, I guess the French pose little added risk in the UK. France imposes quarantine on non-european visitors – they obviously view the rest of Europe as presenting little risk!

      Which is completely insane during a deadly pandemic, as the lock-down’s whole function is to stop the spread of the disease beyond the local boundaries and force it to burnout insitu, in smaller and smaller pcokets.

      Well then! Let’s spread it everywhere! Let’s put covid-19 patients into nursing homes too! And let’s leave the international borders wide open to visitors!

      The UK leadership and its bureaucracies have proven to be the biggest bunch of utter idiots on the planet at this point in human history. I’ll never look at that country and its establishment of idiots in the same way again. What a disgrace!

      72

  • #
    TdeF

    And a bit of light relief from Hale and Pace in the pub.

    32

    • #
      TdeF

      Obviously trolls do not like humour either. Or I get an automatic red thumb for just existing, which is a huge compliment.

      64

  • #

    I didn’t read the links so sorry if this is addressed. Professional sporting teams elsewhere have been very conservative and acted to protect their talent but isolating them and providing services and done checks to keep them isolated. So thequestion is: is this a group of people who have self-isolated to a greater extent that the general population.

    60

    • #

      “…by isolating them…”

      30

    • #
      RickWill

      They are a group of people comprising a number that firmly believe they are above the rules of ordinary people. Sam Newman is the role model:
      https://www.news.com.au/sport/sports-life/sam-newman-continues-relentless-tirade-against-victorias-golf-course-restrictions/news-story/0684d4d0699f7e96fb4998f6aae61db9

      30

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Well that’s Sam job
        To be a provocative d!ck head.
        Despite his great footy skills
        Science & logic were never his strong suit.

        25

        • #
          bobl

          On the other hand the probability of contracting Covid-19 on a golf course, outdoors, under Solar UV and IR, with the typical separations caused by the average fairway drive, and with a background case discovery rate of around 15/25M or about 0.7 in a million are so close to zero as to be not worth mentioning. Victoria being the only state in the nation with a Premier dumb enough not to recognise that.

          Indeed the probability is probably about the same as catching Covid from sitting on a beach in a salty, UV and IR soaked environment somewhere near Sydney or Sufferers Paradise, showing that being dumb is probably a prerequisite for being a state premier.

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          • #
            RickWill

            There is a post above that hails the benefit of coming into summer causing all the decline in countries with declines in the northern hemisphere. If winter is a major risk factor as proposed above surely it would make sense that Victoria and Tasmania be far more cautious than other States as winter approaches. Brazil is a good example of how winter is impacting there:
            http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=Brazil&show=-10&trendline=none&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7#countries

            31

            • #
              bobl

              Tasmania and Victoria SA, Southern WA including Perth and Probably NSW up to the mid north coast ARE at risk over winter, the Tasmanian hospital cluster shows just how fast the virus can move in cold places, in the warmer parts of the country these clusters aren’t happening (Because microdroplets can’t persist). Any place/time that can support fog has the ideal transmission characteristic for droplet transmission.

              42

              • #
                RickWill

                the Tasmanian hospital cluster shows just how fast the virus can move in cold places,

                Modern hospitals like the Burnie NWRH are temperature and humidity controlled. All hospitals basically the same conditions wherever they are located in Australia.

                https://aushfg-prod-com-au.s3.amazonaws.com/Part%20D%20Whole_7_2.pdf

                The temperature is usually a bit warmer than my preference but care is taken in the design to ensure it is even and air flow well balanced without drafts.

                Nothing that occurred at the Burnie hospital was related to the outside weather.

                All Burnie demonstrates is how easily the virus is spread when hospital staff have close contact with the virus host without effective PPE. There was no identified risk until staff started showing symptoms. By then it was well spread.

                It is a good example of what the reproductive rate would be without comprehensive quarantine. There are other examples such as Cedar meats in Victoria, now 88 in 5 weeks, and the Anglicare Newmarch House in Sydney.

                20

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            The key problem at golf courses is the 19th hole.
            And that is why the club houses remain shut everywhere.

            34

      • #

        he played in the pre professional 60-70s. There is no comparison.

        20

        • #
          yarpos

          the old judge the past by the present trick

          20

          • #

            what??? The AFL players are being carefully managed and assisted to maintain isolation. Why has Sam Newman got to do with their covid response?

            30

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Clearly G A you are not from an old AFL/VFL state.
          AFL was a ‘professional’ career even then in Vic. Tasmania, SA & WA.

          22

          • #

            I am from the working north of Melbourne.

            Clearly until the 1980/90′s, as anyone from those states would know, that players worked full time jobs outside of the VFL. Full time professinoals were only the majority in the AFL from the early 1990′s.

            Furthermore, the opinion of an individual about epidemiology does not tell you anything about the AFL clubs’ response to covd-19.

            My point, which is missed by the huge diversion here is players and staff in professional leagues, such as the one in the headline piece, around the world, are cossetted assets and are not a representative cross-section of the populations being exposed to the virus. Furthermore, even if the clubs were not putting in this extra attention into isolation, these people are fitter, healthier, well informed and affluent people with the ability to isolate beyond the level of the populations in which they reside so are a biased sample.

            All of that can be rendered untrue if a former player has a different opinion because, apparently, they define what everyone does today.

            21

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Most of the VFL players had paid ‘job’s’ on the local council workforce
              For their teams..
              But it was a paid honarary job so long as they were in the team.
              Professionals in my view..

              23

              • #

                not most. Clubs did the cash under the table for the best. And I wish I could find the book that interviews players about just this thing… a social history of players’ lives outside of the club.

                Full professionality for all started in the 90s

                20

  • #
    Kevin a

    Please explain: Sweden numbers are dropping with out mass shut downs?
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102193/coronavirus-cases-development-in-sweden/

    52

    • #
      TdeF

      See #17.2

      32

      • #
        bobl

        Your excuse and you’re sticking to it eh TDef?

        Let me point out that Stockholm’s max temp forecast is between about 11 and 14 this week, so Stockholm’s immunity is at 20% but it is also approaching the oft demonstrated break point at about 15C. Microdroplet transmission mode is falling off in Sweden hence the transmission rate is slowing from this factor too.

        Go back in my posts… I predicted this a few weeks ago.

        62

        • #
          TdeF

          So as I understand it, my logic is an ‘excuse’ and yours is pure reason and proven science? Rubbish.

          42

    • #
      RickWill

      Please explain: Sweden numbers are dropping with out mass shut downs?

      The chart you link shows that the number of daily cases have dropped 8 times in 8 weeks; that might be a clue. The reason for that is not clear. It could be weekly reporting cycle from hospitals but that would most likely cause a spike on Monday. The number of cases spike on Thursdays and Fridays, which I put down to weekend partying from the fortnight earlier because it typically takes 12 days for the symptoms to develop sufficiently for hospitalisation.

      I doubt you would claim a reduction looking at the weekly average:
      http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=Sweden&show=-10&trendline=none&y=fixed&scale=log&data=cases-daily-7#countries

      There has been a reduction in daily cases reported in Stockholm. That may be the impact of reduced activity in shops and restaurants during Easter as well the closure of 5 restaurants not complying with the rules back on 27 April. The latter would send a message to all restaurants to abide by the rules or risk being shut down for the duration.

      42

      • #
        DB

        “I doubt you would claim a reduction looking at the weekly average”

        The graph leaves off the denominator — the number of tests conducted. I don’t know the testing numbers for Sweden, but California has now done some 900K tests and 200K of them were in the last week.

        20

    • #
      WXcycles

      Please explain: Sweden numbers are dropping with out mass shut downs?

      So up is the new down now? Where are they “dropping”, take a look at Sweden’s data.

      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

      Now look at what you wrote.

      And why is it Sweden’s graphs look so herky-jerky — all over the place? A lot of effort is being expended to try and keep them from looking like a total disaster.

      [Psst! Graph plots like that are typical of countries continually fiddling their numbers.]

      52

      • #
        Aaron Christiansen

        “[Psst! Graph plots like that are typical of countries continually fiddling their numbers.]”

        For someone who considers themselves a bit of a number cruncher, your reliance on worldometers “data” is telling.

        The worldometer graph looks jerky for Sweden because of how they derive the data, which you would know if you had read a single non-anti-Sweden comment here. But uh. Don’t let me stop you from constructing a conspiracy theory.

        The official Swedish data is perfectly normal.

        30

  • #
    cedarhill

    Another Ivor Cummings video this time with a US medical doctor where you have a bio-chem engineer and a medical doctor agreeing:

    Ep76 – If You Think You Understand the Current Viral Issue – You Don’t!

    They make several points but most important one is (starting about the 1:01:03 mark concerning what an individual can do to dramatically reduce their risk of contracting then having a severe outcome by addressing metabolic syndrome thru lifestyle changes (diet, exercise). If it tweaks you’re interest there are dozens of studies, books, sites on the diet part in particular Ivor Cummings The Fat Emperor youtube channer, Dr. Paul Saladino youtube channel, Dr. Ken Berry’s youtube channel, Dr. Annette Bosworth youtube channel just to name a few.

    For Aussies wanting to listen to a doctor with an Aussie accent, there’s Dr. Paul Mason youtube channel.

    Meanwhile, the first hour is devoted to reviewing statistics which show that the lockdowns were/are mostly useless. What is interesting is the CV-19 curve seems to be the same meaning the rate of increase, plateau and decline are the same regardless. For those in the RO world of biology, they point out that it starts at 3 then levels then drops rapidly to 1. They cite various virologists around the world that point out CV-19 is unique only in that it’s the latest variant (thus the “novel” moniker) but behaves no different than all cororaviruses. That segment will certainly get the blood pumping.

    Another good point is it’s now clearly in the political sphere having moved beyond what most would accept as “science”. It seems to me that CV-19 has morphed into a variant of climate change. I.E., just as climate change is alive and well in the political classes who continue to toss billions to build all sorts of renewable energy sources, etc., the political class is trotting along the same road. Both use what the Brits might term dodgy science. And one might conclude after viewing that another Brit saying would be appropriate in saying the lockdowns are all cocked up. Glad I speak only American.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I’d read somewhere this current problem is from retro viruses, not coronavirus….

      41

    • #
      RickWill

      What is interesting is the CV-19 curve seems to be the same meaning the rate of increase, plateau and decline are the same regardless. For those in the RO world of biology, they point out that it starts at 3 then levels then drops rapidly to 1.

      You mean like these are the same:
      http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=Sweden&show=-10&trendline=none&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7#countries
      http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=Australia&show=-10&trendline=none&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7#countries

      The only commonality I observe is a blue line with daily dots on a white background. Tell me if you see any other similarity?

      42

      • #

        Second bumps in Singapore, Japan and Tasmania, etc, also not conforming to “same curve”.

        Otherwise as I said weeks ago, it’s magical thinking that coronavirus counts in weeks. Instead the fear and the reaction happen in similar waves through human civilizations. It’s human political reaction times that “occur in weeks”. Not viral replication.

        21

        • #
          cedarhill

          I think the numbers, graphs are losing all all the froth, so to speak (see below)

          Ivor seems to be looking at the primary waves and how responses effected them along with what, in the climate world, would be “skeptics”? All of their analysis indicates that quarantines simply had essentially no effect mostly because, as Dr. Saladino stated they simply cannot be contained due to how rapidly they spread, etc., versus the react time of governments.

          I would argue that quarantines can work to stop spreads BUT you’d have to do quarantine every international traveler exactly like nearly all nations do with traveling pets. For example, see this step by step guide for dogs traveling with their US humans which requires a 10 day isolation (quarantine):

          https://www.agriculture.gov.au/cats-dogs/step-by-step-guides/category-3-step-by-step-guide-for-dogs

          These methods for live animals/plants, along with all the restrictions on bio materials has proven extremely effective. Exceptions include the African swine fever which seems to spread even with these restrictions.

          —-

          The only real issue is the one everyone originally presented – not enough hospital to treat severe cases. In the US, that has never happened. The morphing from treating to “save every life” to “eliminate a person contracting it” to “lockdown until a vaccine”, in the US, is 100% political. Most outside the US are completely unaware of the dire financial straight of Democrat (aka “labour”) ran States due to what we call public unions, unfunded pensions and “vote buying” schemes. This has been extensively covered for years. But now, House Speaker Pelosi has produced a $3 trillion spending bill which gives the States $1 trillion to cover their “shortfall” using CV-19 and CDC as cover.

          —-
          I was on a electronic townhall meeting yesterday afternoon with US Senator Rand Paul after Dr. Fauci, et al, testified. His position, correctly I think, is there is simply no reason to continue any of the lockdowns. Note, he IS a medical doctor and has been doing volunteer work at hospital during all this.

          31

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Uh oh…..taxpayers money…toilet…flush….

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/the-government-bought-1-5-million-antibody-tests-they-can-t-be-used-20200512-p54s2v.html

    “The government bought 1.5 million antibody tests. They can’t be used

    “Official scientific advice given to the federal government says that the 1.5 million COVID-19 fingerprick antibody tests it bought are not accurate enough to be of any use.

    “The federal government initially said the tests, which were supposed to be able to quickly tell if someone had recovered from COVID-19, would arrive in the country in late March and be rapidly rolled out to GP clinics.

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    • #
      yarpos

      The amount of pointless expenditure must be epic test kits, covid wards, Covidsafe, police overtime, 1000s (probably 10′s of thousands) of ventilators. Our local councils has spent thousands on signage, star pickets, and warning tape roping of park benches and seats across the Shire to stop miscreants sitting in the sunshine.

      Oh well its hits and misses I guess when you are calling the shots. Border controls and incoming quarantine seems to have been money well spent.

      32

  • #
    Ruairi

    For two months locked down in a cell,
    With economies let go to hell,
    A forced isolation,
    That could break any nation,
    Making citizens poor and unwell.

    132

  • #
    TdeF

    And now the little children are at risk. Kawasaki like disease 4-6 weeks after COVID infection. 3% mortality.

    54

  • #
    TdeF

    And it is common to compare Wu Flu to other flus. Take Rand Paul, an opthamologist from Kentucky and prominent republican Senator “We have fewer deaths in Kentucky than an average flu season.”

    This is common, to ridiculously compare a few weeks of Wu Flu numbers under total lockdown to a year of normal flu without any prevention at all except an innoculation which does not yet exist. And the lockdown has shutdown the more usual flus as well which would otherwise be added.

    64

    • #
      TdeF

      And of course each state, as in any Federation, has most of the control. Even cities in America have a great deal of control over education, police and health. The United States federation is for defence, customs, exchange rates and real power rests with the Governors of each state. So if Kentucky is doing fine, this should be a matter for Kentucky, not the US senate. Except the Governor of Kentucky is a Democrat.

      (It is also why the Congress is forever attacking Trump on foreign issues like Russia and the Ukraine where he is not controlled by the Congress who would like to think they should be in charge of foreign policy.)

      62

      • #
        TdeF

        With its own General assembly, Kentucky has 100 members of the legislature and 38 members of the Upper House and dominated by Democrats since the mid 19th century. However at Federal level it is now Republican.

        Like Australia, coordinating a response when power of health is so distributed means, as should be, that responses can be changed at each state boundary. In the case of infectious diseases and quarantine, this is essential. However it is never discussed. People presume Donald Trump controls everything and in Australia Scott Morrison controls everything. Neither is even close to true.

        72

    • #
      bobl

      No and No. Wu Flu is being compared to bad flu seasons not this years flu seasons, your lockdown perspective has some value in that Wu Flu number are probably being suppressed by the lockdowns, though as the Senator points out the WuFlu numbers are substantially lower than flu seasons meaning the numbers without lockdowns might be similar to Flu (or of course might not). Kentucky is inland and about the latitude equivalent of Melbourne and heading into summer. Oz statistics also indicate lower infection rates the further inland you go. The Senator is probably right in suggesting lockdowns can be relaxed in Kentucky

      72

      • #
        yarpos

        Doubt being coastal has much to do with anything , its just population density. In Oz anywhere more than 50kms from the coast is very population density compared to most of the world.

        30

        • #
          bobl

          Same in USA, Population densities fall rapidly inland from the coasts. My point remains, whatever the cause. Of course Fly over land means less contamination by import too.

          51

      • #
        TdeF

        You miss my point, justified or not he should be directing his statements at the Democratic governor of Kentucky, not the US Senate. There is no point lecturing Donald Trump and the Senate on lockdowns when he should be arguing for relaxation in his specific state. As in Australia, they are a state matter.

        33

        • #
          bobl

          Or perhaps Federal measures are impacting Kentucky, then he would have a point wouldn’t he?

          32

    • #
      yarpos

      Were they in a total lockdown in that State?

      20

  • #
    H.B. Schmidt

    But the message is that even if as many as 2% of the US population had been exposed to Coronavirus, 98% haven’t been.

    This is utter bilge waste of a conclusion.

    We already know approximately 85% of Covid-19 cases are asymptomatic to mild, and only 15% of those requiring intubation die. Raw numbers on those facts alone should indicate the lethality of the virus isn’t what you pretend it will be if we open the country back up sooner than later.

    82

    • #
      TdeF

      Really? 83,000 dead with lockdown. 1 Million infected. At even 60% infected you would expect 200x or 17 million? US losses in WWII were 3% of this. And that’s without mutation and a broadening of the affected people, say to children as is now happening.

      Is there something wrong with my arithmetic? Or is that more bilge?

      55

  • #
    7887

    I see this as a good thing. Who says everybody exposed to this virus has to be infected.

    Just maybe if you are healthy it may not be contagious to you.

    Maybe it is not as contagious as the doom mongers and lockdown tyrants would have you believe.

    61

    • #
      TdeF

      What Australia has proven is that there is no general virus in society, or it would not track to zero as it has done. The theory of massive unknown infection is busted.

      34

  • #
    ren

    Well-known anti-cytokine storm drugs can save many people. Not everyone understands that the Cov-2 virus, by inactivating the ECE2 enzyme, causes a cytokine storm. To fight the virus you need to “calm down” your own immune system. If we don’t use these drugs, there will still be many deaths.

    50

    • #
      ren

      Sorry.
      Not everyone understands that the Cov-2 virus, by inactivating the ACE2 enzyme, causes a cytokine storm. To fight the virus you need to “calm down” your own immune system. If we don’t use these drugs, there will still be many deaths.
      “When the immune system is fighting pathogens, cytokines signal immune cells such as T-cells and macrophages to travel to the site of infection. In addition, cytokines activate those cells, stimulating them to produce more cytokines. Normally this feedback loop is kept in check by the body. However, in some instances, the reaction becomes uncontrolled, and too many immune cells are activated in a single place. The precise reason for this is not entirely understood, but may be caused by an exaggerated response when the immune system encounters a new and highly pathogenic invader. Cytokine storms have potential to do significant damage to body tissues and organs. If a cytokine storm occurs in the lungs, for example, fluids and immune cells such as macrophages may accumulate and eventually block off the airways, potentially resulting in death.

      The cytokine storm (hypercytokinemia) is the systemic expression of a healthy and vigorous immune system resulting in the release of more than 150 inflammatory mediators (cytokines, oxygen free radicals, and coagulation factors). Both pro-inflammatory cytokines (such as Tumor necrosis factor-alpha, Interleukin-1, and Interleukin-6) and anti-inflammatory cytokines (such as interleukin 10, and interleukin 1 receptor antagonist) are elevated in the serum of patients experiencing a cytokine storm.

      Cytokine storms can occur in a number of infectious and non-infectious diseases including graft versus host disease (GVHD), adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis, avian influenza, smallpox, and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS).”
      https://www.wikidoc.org/index.php/Cytokine_storm

      50

      • #
        dinn, rob

        true enough, however calming the body has long been possible including through intake of regular half-teaspoons of sodium bicarbonate with some water or even milk.
        but this virus goes after blood vessels, that is, the oxygen therein, a lot, therefore disrupting most of body. going for the pH base side is medically proven to help, although i think if a lot of virus gets going, one is in great trouble.

        00

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    ABC playing catch up :

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-13/how-a-choir-practice-caused-52-coronavirus-cases-in-us/12241662
    It’s an accurate article but
    I remember reading about this weeks ago here among other places like Chiefio.
    A classic super spreader event.

    54

  • #
    Roger Knights

    “5,603 major league employees”

    Only half that group may be players. Or a quarter. Or a tenth.
    Did the study provide particulars?

    60

  • #
    ianl

    > “About the only message we can really draw from this is the US is a long way from Herd Immunity …”

    Or, perhaps, that a 5,600 size “sample” is 0.0016% of the US population. Scary, no ?

    11

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    Richard Ilfeld

    I would like to remind those watching the US from afar and reading our “journalism” that these self-same
    solons of sophisticated information-mongering have been flogging global warming/climate change on a universal basis for
    decades. This attests to their collective scientific acuity and attention to logical argument and data.

    They are often wrong, always as a herd, and never apologetic.

    They have brought the same analytic skills and cautious consideration they’ve shown on climate, to their portrayal of the
    current situation, in service of the same masters.

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    Richard Ilfeld

    First pro sports event in US: NASCAR races live Sunday.
    pray, sing, fly, run.

    All of the reactions to this are so predictable they could be written today, well before the event.

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    Richard Ilfeld

    Georgia – 13 deaths per 100,000 — mostly open
    Florida — 8 deaths per 100,000 — much is open — some theme parks start tomorrow
    NY — 139 deaths per 100,000 — mostly closed

    Our media has told you Gov Cuomo of New York is wonderful, while Kemp of Georgia and DeSantis of Florida are irresponsible.

    I’ve only read here that Sunshine (vitamin D) probably plays a role.

    It is worth noting that normally international travel into Florida exceeds that into New York, including numerous cruise ships.
    These three states have different lifestyles, but the differences within states are huge:
    NYC vs upstate New York, Miami and southeast Florida vs. the interior, Atlanta vs. rural Georgia.

    The proper jusridiction to statistify in the US might well be the County. We have on the order of 3,000. They are, by the way, legally the
    heirs of authority from the states, which associated into the federal government. Cities are much more ad hoc.

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      TdeF

      Interesting points. And Atlanta is the world’s busiest airport.

      Higher temperatures. More distributed population. And the big one, a very different racial mix with more Latinos. But Brazil (180 million) has 180,000 cases and 12,000 deaths argues against that. No country is over 1% infected, except for various very biased reports.

      Consider the unexplained and spectacular success of Vietnam (100 Million) and Cambodia (16 Million) with only a few hundred cases each. Herd immunity is impossible unless a major similar contagion has already devastated these areas in times past. Indonesia (270 Million) also has only 16,000 cases.

      Or is it that Chinese tourists would not find these countries interesting or particularly Chinese tourist friendly? These are traditional enemies of the Chinese who as a racial group still control the economies of South East Asia, especially Thailand. It was a major cause of the Vietnam war and a major Chinese/Vietnamese conflict erupted after the American forces left. While racist is the common accusation in America, extreme racism even legislated racism is a fact of life in most of Asia.

      There is so much we do not know. While NY Governor Cuomo says the virus came from Europe, tracing the masses of Chinese tourists in late 2019 and early 2020 to individual countries and US states might be a better explanation for the viral load in each country at the time the pandemic was finally and reluctantly declared by WHO.

      Asian countries which reacted instantly to stories of another killer virus out of China have fared much better including Taiwan and South Korea and even Hong Kong. Possibly also SE Asia. There is no question the President of WHO is responsible for seriously and intentionally misleading America and Europe.

      So where SARS and MERS were locked up, Wuhan Flu was allowed to infect millions through continuing masses of Chinese tourists. And politicians like Nancy Pelosi were busy telling people there was no problem except with xenophobia.

      It all argues for the modern health checks for viruses and illness generally with tourists, checks which we currently only apply to fruit, wood, weapons, dogs, cats, chickens, cattle, horses and pigs. This is especially important when you can cross any ocean in a day but has been totally neglected.

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    Lance

    Does herd immunity even work? I’d not like to tell people that as many as possible should get infected because the tally may be very high.
    Also, quarantines only for the elderly is stupid, they’ll catch the virus from the young and healthy commuting to their workplaces. Public transportation is the “achilles heel” of this approach as people inside the system will be literally “bathed” by viruses. Easing of the lockdowns is definitely possible, but requires a lot of precautions.

    Ah, and Brazil still winning, as Bolsonaro wants. We’re getting close to 1000 deaths/day, and we passed the 10000 death mark.

    Bolsonaro is so proud of this achievement he even proposed a BBQ just in the day the tally was hit, but it had to be canceled due to the public outrage, and he may end up being impeached.

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    Calvin in California

    Awesome! You found a study, to go with the other 1% study, to support your bias. Now do Stockholm!

    https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/

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    If I’d have left off the second sentence… I know

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