JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Wear masks, flush the air, microdroplets suspend for hours

Closed rooms with many people talking are hot-beds of infection. Invisible clouds of virus hang suspended in the air. Open the windows. Turn up the airflow. Wear masks. (Wear goggles too, if you are high risk, the virus can get in through the wet surface of your eyes).

Blow that virus outdoors where the sun will fry it. We need to change the way we handle air in planes and on cruise ships, and public transport — even when there is no pandemic.

This is why I am not shopping without PPE. Make a mask.  Mail order and delivery is so much safer. Do carpark pick ups.  It’s also why eating uncooked fruit and vege that people may have breathed on is still a risk. The virus will likely survive 28 days in the fridge at 4 degrees C and even longer in the freezer.  At 40 degrees it will last about 6 hours. Time will not protect you unless things are warm. 

When I did research in a lab, if we wanted to save viruses we’d put them in a freezer (minus 70C).

A virus is more like a chemical than a living thing.

Thanks to MichaelSmithNews.

Heat helps bacteria but heat “kills” viruses by shaking them apart on a molecular level. I’m putting mail in plastic bags and leaving it in the Australian sun, or a hot car.

h/t Richard K (with thanks to his son for working on the front line)

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Rating: 9.1/10 (42 votes cast)
Wear masks, flush the air, microdroplets suspend for hours, 9.1 out of 10 based on 42 ratings

148 comments to Wear masks, flush the air, microdroplets suspend for hours

  • #
    ren

    SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. “Our vaccine elicits the right response in animals. It gives us wings.”
    As Dr. Mariola Fotin-Mleczek said on Thursday, SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus vaccine has been working since mid-January. The vaccine is intended to be innovative because it uses ribonucleic acid, which contains information about the structure of the protein on the surface of the virus.

    - We have been preparing it for animal testing since January, and at the same time, the production of this vaccine for human testing started two weeks ago.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I’d like to see the malaria drug treatment explored, before yet another bundle of who knows what is injected into people….if we can stop it in its tacks chemically, I’d much prefer that, and it’s available right now.

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      • #
        cedarhill

        You’re 100% correct.

        Also: see this article from Lancet on the latest vaccine work from Pittsburg:
        https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(20)30118-3/fulltext
        Meaning they have a testable vaccine ready for human trials

        But note:
        1. vaccines are far less than 100%; best case in the 30%+ range meaning that they will “flatten” the curve in 2 to 4 weeks after being administered and only be their effective rate. Using modern bio-engineering, one hopes their effective % will be much higher. With the trials,testing needed, distribution, administration logistics and time to become effective — means a vaccine that will have an impact will likely arrive well after the peak?

        2. Some early reports that plasma from recovered patients have shown success. Again, with the gov involved, when and if, it becomes available is unknown.

        3. That leaves us with the current, pressing issue of treatment. It’s obvious that many places, literally around the world, have clinical proof of efficacy of the malarial protocol when administered before the patient is “beyond any help” has a dramatic reversal even with those already intubated (on respirators). There doesn’t seem to be any reason why these 50 year old drugs should not be universally administered provided the patient/representative signs the appropriate releases (need to protect the medical folks from our cut throat attorneys).

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      • #
        Sunni Bakchat

        Original Steve, Agreed. There are several issues that are being overlooked with Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine/Quinine, Zinc and Azithromycin. All have been in use successfully for decades. All have very minimal side effects at recommended dosage level. All are relatively cheap. The effective dose may be far lower as a prophylactic.

        Almost every doctor who has tried this combination therapy has said it is effective.

        If the therapy works as suggested and the rate of intubation goes through the floor, haven’t we solved the problem for the moment?

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        • #

          We don’t have enough Chloroquine in Australia. That’s the issue for us. How long does it take to make?

          Remember, the whole world suddenly wants it at the same time. Can other industrial production companies be repurposed to make it in weeks?

          I hope someone is looking at this, but I don’t see journalists asking.

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          • #
            Raving

            gou probably dont have enough drugs to sedate, paralyze anagelize, treat hypertension and just about everything else. All those ventilators demand large pharmaceutical support. Average stay is 3 weeks on a ventilator rather than 7-12 days under normal situations

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            • #
              Sunni Bakchat

              Pulmonary ER doctor in NYC detailing ventilation duration, process and prophylaxes. https://vimeo.com/399733860

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              • #
                Raving

                That’s an hour long interview. Wash hands. Dont touch your face. Use Pural. Masks encourage good habits. Had trouble finding anything about ventilators.

                Havent seen hand sanitizer in weeks. The US is leaning on 3M not to ship N95 mask order to Canada. Our hard spirit alcohol is only 40%. Each country for thier own. Hope Switzerland still has good supply chains

                Liked what I head about not getting infected. On the other hand there are many spectacular super spreading cluster events where 50 or more get infected at a single instance.

                Could also be that health care workers get infected but are asymptomatic.

                Not to dismiss what you present. Transmission still seems moderately high with asymptomatic spreadersand old folks dying with 10-20% likelihood

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              • #
                Sunni Bakchat

                Raving, What i recall Dr. Price saying about ventilators was that he’s still putting people on for 7-12 days on average.

                We’ve had sanitiser available for about a week now in volume. All Swiss manufacturers. Perhaps factories that were producing other chemical products beforehand?

                Masks are appearing but they’re mainly from convenience stores who ordered from china a month ago and have broken down 100 packs and are selling for CHF 5-10 each. There are no cheap bulk supplies. They’ve all been taken by the hospitals.

                Testing is supposed to be the highest rate in the world now but its still impossible to get a test from the doctor if you don’t pass the qualification screening.

                I think the answer to the superspread is contained in the japanese research. It seems to be a function of time, proximity, enclosure. One person can infect a whole group if the group is densely packed into a poorly ventilated enclosure for an extended period (20-30mins +). The sustained contact dimension highlighted by Doctor Price is a health metric that has been completely overlooked in the public health advisory message.

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            • #

              Exactly right. I would prefer to head it all off at the pass. Chloroquine is a very old drug. Is it still protected by patent?

              40

          • #
            Ross

            Jo –I had a quick look. Obviously Australia does not have production facilities for chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine. Clive Palmer took out a full page in the Australian ( I think) promoting his idea to quickly build a facility –obviously Clive does not know the hurdles that have to be jumped to get a pharmaceutical production facility approved.) I think there are a couple of GMP registered dietary supplement production facilities in Australia. Repurposing them might be a quicker option.

            Many of the multinational pharma companies are said to produce them —Bayer, Novartis, Teva and Mylan. Some of these companies have already donated product.

            An organisation called Semo ( https://www.sermo.com/ ) has conducted a survey of 6000 + doctors worldwide asking their view on the effectiveness of the drugs.

            “The survey, released Thursday and conducted by Sermo, a global health care polling company, asked 6,227 physicians in 30 countries to find out what works against SARS-CoV-2. The poll found that 37% of those treating patients suffering frm the coronavirusa that causes COVID-19 patients rated hydroxychloroquine as the “most effective therapy.”

            The physicians picked hydroxychloroquine from a list of 15 choices.

            On Monday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration gave chloroquine and its derivative, hydroxychloroquine, emergency-use authorization, although many physicians were already using the drug.”

            “Azithromycin, known by the brand name Zithromax or Z-Pak, camed in as the second-most effective therapy at 32%, followed by “nothing.”

            Outside the U.S., hydroxychloroquine was equally used for diagnosed patients with mild to severe symptoms whereas in the U.S. it was most commonly used for high risk diagnosed patients,” the survey found.

            The three most commonly prescribed treatments amongst COVID-19 treaters are 56% analgesics, 41% Azithromycin, and 33% Hydroxychloroquine
            Hydroxychloroquine usage amongst COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in Mexico, 28% in France, 23% in the U.S., 17% in Germany, 16% in Canada, 13% in the UK and 7% in Japan
            Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy amongst COVID-19 treaters from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters)
            75% in Spain, 53% Italy, 44% in China, 43% in Brazil, 29% in France, 23% in the U.S. and 13% in the U.K.

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            • #
              doc

              I have skin in the game except hope for these drugs. However, Jo and every statistician that comes to this blog – and there are obviously
              a lot with that expertise – would know that the reports on these drugs are observational and not statistically valid as proofs. At any
              other time these same people would be hypercritical that such reports are statistically invalid; wouldn’t pass their Null test. And I
              believe this is why the USA and Australia are very cautious about throwing open the doors. It’s probably why even Trump, who is chafing at the
              bit to get the release of these drugs, has been cautioned to await the outcome of what appears to be the results of a small (in drug
              efficacy terms) trial of 1500 people. If those observations were from designed small trials and occured at any other time except in an emergent
              situation, they would all be combined as a prelim statistical trial and have been acted upon. There is no doubt a medico-political argument being
              put to the US government to get at least a minor validating trial behind such a decision. One potential problem that’s obvious is that both
              hydroxychloroqine and Azithromycin have potential for causing adverse interactions which other therapeutic drugs patients can be taking, so the
              potential for class actions after the disease has settled, from relatives of patients that die in this setting, exist. Was it the disease or the
              drug that killed the patient – an argument already being made about the lethality of the disease by those arguing the economy should never have
              been shut down.

              As I say, I have no axe to grind but this may be the reason for the US delay in releasing these drugs without statistical proof of action. Keep in
              mind that the entire response to this pandemic is now based on the epidemiological statistics. Just to twist the knife a little, those models
              today, on Fox News, are being attacked for their armageddon prophecies which are not near coming to pass because, as soon as one begins the fight,
              the fight changes the outcome. That is patently obvious why one fights, but from then on there is no model that can accurately forecast
              the responses. One can observe the response behaving as expected but cannot statistically describe it before it happens. That’s why I find it interesting watching
              the statistically expert on this blog fighting over their therapeutic advice, flu vs COVID-19. Is it not true to say that, as in economics, we learn more about
              disease from the statistics and how to treat it, when it is over and the statistical histories can be graphed against the treatments, ready for next
              time? The problem this time is that Western Nations took no notice of how the Asian tigers previously succeeded in defeating the beast and they repeated
              the lesson while we initially floundered and debated on all fronts and lost time.

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          • #
            Bill In Oz

            But we have huge amounts of Ivermectin J
            It’s at all our farm supplies stores !
            A sheep & cattle drench !

            10

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            But we have huge amounts of Ivermectin Jo
            It’s at all our farm supplies stores !
            A sheep & cattle drench !

            00

            • #
              peter

              WTF does Ivermectin do to viruses? It is not listed as antibiotic other than to kill paracites?

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            • #
              peter

              WTF does Ivermectin do to viruses? It is not listed as antibiotic other than to kill parasites?

              00

      • #
        STJOHNOFGRAFTON

        From WND their latest CV-19 titem: “Global survey: Hydroxychloroquine No. 1 drug to treat COVID-19″

        https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/global-survey-hydroxychloroquine-no-1-drug-treat-covid-19/

        00

    • #
      ren

      It all began with an unexpected discovery. CureVacs founder, Dr. Ingmar Hoerr (a doctoral student at the time), discovered that when it was administered directly into tissue, the historically unstable biomolecule mRNA could be used as a therapeutic vaccine or agent after optimizationno complicated reformulations or molecular packaging needed.

      We built CureVac from lifes building blocks
      With a single discovery, CureVac opened the world up to the potential of mRNA to treat diseases and create vaccines. Officially founded in 2000, CureVac is the worlds first company to successfully harness mRNA for medical purposesbecause we saw opportunities where others saw obstacles. Today, were more than 400 passionate people strong, each one committed to using the clinical potential of our proprietary mRNA technology to provide tailored solutions for those with the greatest medical needs.
      https://www.curevac.com/about-curevac#

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  • #
    Annie

    Thanks Jo.

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  • #
    PeterS

    Not just the air. Physical surfaces too. The lack of appropriate cleaning of the most risky surfaces, such as lift bottoms, door handles, self-checkout terminals, hand rails on trains and buses, etc.. are still not occurring anywhere near enough. Sure we could wear gloves (and masks) except they are virtually non-existent so don’t bother going there. So until they are readily available all the important surfaces should be disinfected regularly. Otherwise, we are not taking this pandameic as seriously as other nations are. I wonder why?

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    • #
      WXcycles

      Went through a checkout 2 days ago and the checkout person used a rag to lightly wipe down the keypad buttons of the EFTPOS terminal and wiled the counter down. So I thought, OK, that’s better than nothing then. No masks, no plastic or rubber gloves, no hand sanitizer. So I tapped the card and tapped the pin number in, and as I’m putting the last bag into the trolley, the very same soiled dodgy rag came out for another wipe, in the very same ways.

      This is a surefire way for Coles to spread the infection. If the Checkout Girl had a mask and we both had access to a hand sanitizer at the end of the process, the chances of a cross-infection would become negligible. The supermarkets are really letting their staff and customers down.

      I also noticed that none of the older staff are there any longer so it looks like they all got put off, or were placed on paid or unpaid leave. A simple mask and hand sanitizer is all this needs to drop the risks for all.

      I’d have thought Bundaberg Rum distillery could have made a very savory smelling hand sanitizer by now. And JCU’s Chemistry Dept? Can they not even make a local supply of hand sanitizer, or work with a local firm to produce it? Are they waiting for a $450 million grant first? We have a community full of industrial chemists, and industrial operations, and no one does anything about the biggest source of community spread opportunities in essential shops? We have upholsterers and dress-makers but no basic masks seem to get made and sold.

      If you wanted to open your closed business operation for it to be considered an essential service, and profitable, why would you not be making ad-hoc face masks and hand sanitizer product right now, if you had the basic materials? What we did last week matters much more in this than what we did this week. Same for next week. What’s the log jam? The sooner we have these things the sooner the economy re-opens.

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      • #
        Sunni Bakchat

        WxCycles. How very true. We are now seeing the legacy effect of the early advice from medical authorities not to wear a mask. The advice not to wear a mask is itself a viral meme that self-replicates with ease.

        If we want to break this virus we rapidly need to shatter the meme that is perpetuating it.

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      • #
        STJOHNOFGRAFTON

        DIY hand/ household sanitizer: 60 – 70 % methylated spirits : water. Mix well. Disperse this as a fine mist with a trigger spray bottle.

        NOT for internal use!

        Flammable.

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    • #
      Sunni Bakchat

      PeterS, Not sure how accurate your comment is looking at latest research – http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/ancient-technology-wins-quarantine-and-isolation-still-work/#comment-2303044

      01

      • #
        PeterS

        So what are you saying? Don’t wear gloves? Don’t wash hands? Pull the other leg.

        10

        • #
          Sunni Bakchat

          PeterS, read my other posts. Regular hand washing and a basic mask is key in most circumstances. Where there are a lot people in an enclosed space and you are there for an extended period and there is coughing, sneezing or a lot of talking, a higher quality mask and googles are recommended for reasons obvious in the japanese research video posted.

          The German research shows there is no evidence the virus is being picked up from surfaces, Instead it seems to be spreading from close contact for a sustained period (20-30 minutes + ). Most likely by those who are asymptomatic carriers. The Japanese research supports the close contact theory.

          I posted information from a NYC ER pulmonologist yesterday who stated unequivocally the main virus transmission risk he’s encountered is from sustained close contact. He states health workers are being infected in this way but if they wear a mask and sanitise, the rate of infection is ZERO. The remainder is simple hand to face contact. Wearing a mask stops the hand to face gesture as well as containing cough and sneeze aerosols. The hand washing is a back up in case surfaces are dirty. but as the german research shows, surfaces are not the main culprit.

          From experience, the only use for gloves outside of extremely contaminated areas is to stop dermatitis from excessive hand sanitising.

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          • #
            PeterS

            You posted a comment disputing my comment about touching surfaces and now you agree with me by saying we need to wash hands? What the?!

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          • #
            Roger Knights

            “The German research shows there is no evidence the virus is being picked up from surfaces,”

            Exactly the reverse of what was being said in the early days by China and the WHO.

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  • #
    Raving

    its easy enough to explain why our premier will release grim modeling estimates tomorrow. Shall walk you through it.

    Prediction: 350,000 deaths in Ontario

    This is roughly 10% of the population aged 65 or older in a province of 14 m people. It assumes the pop goes to full 100% infection. The herd immunity argument.

    Why does a pop with 2,800 cases grow to a full 14 million infected.? Easy

    look at the hard data at present. Roughly
    20 reirement homes/assisted living/hospitals already infected with af few staff and/orresidents
    handfullof police infected, handfull of firefighters infected, handfull of transportation workers infected, handfull of grocery clerks infected.

    Its community transmission and it spreads quickly and undetected amongst these essential workers.

    If that is all there was things would break out of control, except that the province is mostly locked down

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    • #
      Raving

      with the retirement/assisted living it is hard to stop the transmission. Staff work at multiple residences and there is necessary contact with vulnerable people. Thus the high priority to test and identify helath care workers.

      Without the lockdown police/fire/transport/grocery clerks are going to easily spreadto the general population.With a lockdown that progression is slowed considerably.

      Now here is the crucial thing .. Why so many infected healthcare workers/police/grocery clerks and such.

      It is NOT community spread. It is because 1 million Canadians go on vacations to foreign locations in the late winter/early spring. These crucial community individuals brought it back with them when they returned to Canada. They are merely in a good position to spread the virus far and wide

      If the society lockdown is reasonably effective the virus will plateau. Unfortunately it is already too late for the infected retirement/Ssisted locations.

      That iswhy it is essential to stop the community transmission nos. The exploding infections have been caused by returning Canadians seeding hidden clusters. Need to stop creating new clusters

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      • #
        Raving

        No surprises.

        Some hard facts
        - Deaths are the most reliable statistic
        - Mortality of 20% for those over 80 yrs age
        - Mortality of 10% for those over 70 yrs. These are consistent with globalstatistics
        - They claim 100,000 deaths would occur if no action is taken
        - The crucial action is to enhance social distancing to preventsaturation of ICU capacity
        - Crucial to protect seniors, retirement homes, homeless and such
        - repeated .. enhance social distancing to decrease Ro
        - epidemic could last up to 18 months with secondaary and tertiary surges(outbreaks)

        Seems to me they are

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        • #
          Raving

          There are roughly 2.5 m in Ontario of age 65 yrs or older. Seems the assumption of going full herd immunity 30-70% will result in more than 100k deaths

          the reports Ive read from Italy suggest that the prospect of an ederly personsurving treatment in an ICU is astonishingly low. The worldwide obcession to have sufficient icubeds and ventilators seems to be an emotional grasp. It doesnt seem to help the elderly, even if provided.

          All comes down to preventing saturation of ICU for hose under 60. Pretty grim

          Hate this ipad format. Apologies for the many typos

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  • #

    It looks like the world is beginning to wake up that you were right about masks and right about the need to keep sounding the alarm.
    Thank you Jo.

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  • #
    Kalm Keith

    A few earlier comments have suggested that there’s a significant difference in air movement/conditioning between ships and aircraft.

    Supposedly aircraft have one pass systems that will flow over the individual and be drawn away to be expelled outside.
    Cruise liners presumably have one main which services input to several cabins.

    Anybody know more?

    KK

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    • #
      Destroyer D69

      Generally, pressurized aircraft cabin airflow is from front to rear of the cabin. with overhead vents into the cabin to floor level exits on the way to the cabin air outflow valve,which regulates the cabin pressure , then overboard to atmosphere.any filtration of the air takes place before it enters the cabin,there is NO recycling of cabin air.The rate of change of air is conrollable by the crew.

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Good.

        And I imagine that on boats the air pumped into cabins might be O.K. but that would leak out to passageways and general access areas?

        10

        • #
          Destroyer D69

          The primary difference is that the cabin air in an aircraft is sourced from a NEW source outside the cabin and in the pressurization process is heated to a high temp (compressor outlet temp) by the engine(s) before being compressed and conditioned for supply to the cabin. There is almost no way that any used cabin air can return to the cabin.

          20

  • #
    Hasbeen

    It appears to me that microfiber cloth should be ideal for the production of masks. It should offer more opportunities to pick up the molecules in the air.

    Anyone know anything about this? Am I heading off down some blind ally?

    30

    • #

      I make masks out of microfibre. Two layers of the material draw to the face when breathing in, but it is not hard to breathe. The only problem with microfibre is a lot of small bits of it are created when cutting it, and you don’t want to be breathing those in. I sew a 25mm strong cotton edge-binding completely over the cut edges and carefully vacuum each mask before using it.

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  • #
    Andrew McRae

    Is there no end in sight??

    Isolation measures will remain crucial even when case numbers drop

    Professor Prokopenko says that even if the number of cases in Australia slows to a trickle, and a new testing regime is in place, an additional month of physical-distancing restrictions will be needed to ensure all the cases have been tracked down.

    “One person can transfer the virus to one other person for up to 17 days, and for another 17 days that person can also transfer the virus to others,” he says.

    “People will complain about maintaining social distancing when there are no cases, but it is necessary to stop the spread.”

    So, all up, that would likely point towards four months of strict social distancing, taking us up to late July.

    Late July!?? That is sadism. Even if you believe the 17 days figure, that is still no reason to keep the business/beach/camping shutdown rules going more than 3 weeks. That is enough time for everyone who was going to be contagious to have either died or fought off the infection, with little to no spread in the meantime. Maybe you want 2 more incubation periods after that, just to make doubly sure. That’s still only 5 weeks which is 4th of May. Where is the rationale for this huge extension??

    The ABC says this model from UTS has been published, but there is no link in the paper or the Arxiv page to where the source code and mixing data can be obtained. So it is half published. Better than none. In my brief look through their paper I have not found the key ingredient that makes the pathogen persist so long in the model. Maybe it’s their assumption of the restrictions being only the half-hearted rules we have now and getting only 90% compliance with that.

    The model actually being used by the Federal government as the basis of the restrictions is a different closed-source secret model.

    The Australian Academy of Science has been calling for the Federal Government to release that modelling to the public, and Prime Minister Scott Morrison has now said authorities plan to release information about the models next week.

    Good, and that model will be at least 2 weeks (and counting) too late in being being published. Billions of dollars have been sacrificed because of that model. The model is a concise description of how consequences were predicted, and its publication should be considered necessary in a democracy. Ideally it should have been published before the domestic restrictions were applied. By the sounds of it the model is only the health dimension, it does not cover the business and GDP cost.

    I’m not saying all these activity closures are wrong, and remember they (so far) haven’t gone even halfway towards the lockdowns done in Italy and China. I’m just saying modelling is a bit like justice; it is not enough for modelling to be done, the modelling must also be seen to be done.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Yep…use malaria drugs to treat and let us get on with it….

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    • #
      Serp

      To “release information about the models” is not to release the models; expect a press release advising that the models are commercial in confidence.

      10

  • #
    AP

    Its funny. I now have had two seperate offers of medical-grade N95 masks from friends and relatives in Asian countries (not China – well they don’t consider themselves to be part of China anyway).

    I don’t need them though!

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Efficacy and Safety of Hydroxychloroquine for Treatment of Pneumonia Caused by 2019-nCoV ( HC-nCoV )

    https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04261517

    Study outcome :

    http://www.zjujournals.com/med/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9292.2020.03.03

    “Abstract:
    Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in the treatment of patients with common coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19).

    Methods: We prospectively enrolled 30 treatment-na?ve patients with confirmed COVID-19 after informed consent at Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center. The patients were randomized 1:1 to HCQ group and the control group. Patients in HCQ group were given HCQ 400 mg per day for 5 days plus conventional treatments, while those in the control group were given conventional treatment only. The primary endpoint was negative conversion rate of COVID-19 nucleic acid in respiratory pharyngeal swab on days 7 after randomization. This study has been approved by the ethics committee of Shanghai public health clinical center and registered online (NCT04261517).

    Results: One patient in HCQ group developed to severe during the treatment. On day 7, COVID-19 nucleic acid of throat swabs was negative in 13 (86.7%) cases in the HCQ group and 14 (93.3%) cases in the control group (P>0.05). The median duration from hospitalization to virus nucleic acid negative conservation was 4 (1-9) days in HCQ group, which is comparable to that in the control group[2 (1-4) days, (U=83.5, P>0.05)]. The median time for body temperature normalization in HCQ group was 1 (0-2) after hospitalization, which was also comparable to that in the control group 1 (0-3). Radiological progression was shown on CT images in 5 cases (33.3%) of the HCQ group and 7 cases (46.7%) of the control group, and all patients showed improvement in follow-up examination. Four cases (26.7%) of the HCQ group and 3 cases (20%) of the control group had transient diarrhea and abnormal liver function (P>0.05).

    Conclusions: The prognosis of common COVID-19 patients is good. Larger sample size study are needed to investigate the effects of HCQ in the treatment of COVID-19. Subsequent research should determine better endpoint and fully consider the feasibility of experiments such as sample size.

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    • #

      Thanks Steve,

      However Australia doesn’t have enough. Anyone want to research the chemistry of making it. How long does it take? What kind of equipment and precursors are needed. Ask your MP if we are looking to produce it. Are any pharmaceutical labs making it here, could they?

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      • #
        James Poulos

        If there is a quid in it I’m sure the neighbourhood OMCG drug labs are already onto it…

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        • #
          Raving

          Except the precursor chemicals also probably come from China or India..

          Fortunately ethanol from corn mash to make hand sanitizer can be obtained locally

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      • #
        Konrad

        Jo, as I mentioned in previous comments, Novartis AG announced almost two weeks ago that they were donating their current stock of 50 million 200mg doses of Hydroxychloroquine to the global fight, and hoped to provide up to 130 million by the end of May.

        It is only 2 days ago that Greg Hunt finally decided to try and source this medicine for Australia. The government is poorly advised by Dr Murphy, and our anti-Trump media is desperate that this old medication not be an answer, no matter how many it could save.

        This is why I feel the best hope lays in the cruise ships. Australia can wrangle some of that 50 million units for the ships because it’s not “for Australia” but for the multi national crews. The Captains can get a clear result compared to the diamond princess control in 1 week, because their maritime authority means the forces opposed cannot prevent the use.

        Australia missed the boat on Hydrxoychloroquine for front line medical and keeping patients off ventilators. But we could still ask for the ships. Power at a point. Maximum leaverage. Get it for the ships, and 1 week later all resistance will crumble.

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I’m not a chemist, but this video shows how to make Hydroxychloroquine

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_EXdUE3eypM

        Hopefully it won’t be taken down…

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        OriginalSteve

        Also

        https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/3652

        “Description:

        “Hydroxychloroquine is a 4-aminoquinoline with immunosuppressive, antiautophagy, and antimalarial activities. Although the precise mechanism of action is unknown, hydroxychloroquine may suppress immune function by interfering with the processing and presentation of antigens and the production of cytokines. As a lysosomotropic agent, hydroxychloroquine raises intralysosomal pH, impairing autophagic protein degradation; hydroxychloroquine-mediated accumulation of ineffective autophagosomes may result in cell death in tumor cells reliant on autophagy for survival. In addition, this agent is highly active against the erythrocytic forms of P. vivax and malariae and most strains of P. falciparum but not the gametocytes of P. falciparum.

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          OriginalSteve

          I also notice the Establishment MSM trying very hard to talk down this treatment,but medical people appear keen to use it.

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        Dipole

        Perhaps someone could inquire at a compounding pharmacist and post their findings.

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      peter

      Steve, I’m confused. Those results seem to show that HCQ does nothing?

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      • #
        Roger Knights

        “Steve, I’m confused. Those results seem to show that HCQ does nothing?”

        This I assume is a report on a old study that decriers of quinine-type treatments have been citing, for that reason. But note this phrase in the study:

        “those in the control group were given conventional treatment only.”

        Proponents have pointed out that this conventional treatment included the use of a couple of other anti-vitals.

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    OriginalSteve

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220301145

    “Recently, Wang and colleagues (Wang et al., 2020) evaluated in vitro five FDA-approved drugs and two broad spectrum antivirals against a clinical isolate of SARS-CoV-2. One of their conclusions was that “chloroquine (is) highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro” and that its “safety track record suggests that it should be assessed in human patients suffering from the novel coronavirus disease”. At least 16 different trials for SARS-CoV-2 already registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2000029939, ChiCTR2000029935, ChiCTR2000029899, ChiCTR2000029898, ChiCTR2000029868, ChiCTR2000029837, ChiCTR2000029826, ChiCTR2000029803, ChiCTR2000029762, ChiCTR2000029761, ChiCTR2000029760, ChiCTR2000029741, ChiCTR2000029740, ChiCTR2000029609, ChiCTR2000029559, ChiCTR2000029542) propose to use chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19 (“Chinese Clinical Trial Register” (ChiCTR)). In a recent publication (Gao et al., 2020), Gao and colleagues indicate that, “according to the news briefing”, “results from more than 100 patients have demonstrated that chloroquine phosphate is superior to the control treatment in inhibiting the exacerbation of pneumonia, improving lung imaging findings, promoting a virus negative conversion, and shortening the disease course”.

    ………….
    “In conclusion, the option of using chloroquine in the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 should be examined with attention in light of the recent promising announcements, but also of the potential detrimental effect of the drug observed in previous attempts to treat acute viral diseases. We urge Chinese scientists to report the interim trial results currently running in China as soon as they are available. This should be preferentially done in a peer-reviewed publication with detailed information to allow the international scientific community to analyse the results, to confirm in prospective trials the efficacy of the proposed treatment and to guide future clinical practice.

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    OriginalSteve

    This is a fairly extensive list and discussion on multiple treatment options , worth a read

    https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000168/emergingtxs

    “Introduction
    No treatments have been approved or shown to be safe and effective for the treatment of COVID-19. However, there are several treatments being used off-label (use of a licensed medication for an indication that has not been approved by a national drug regulatory authority), on a compassionate-use basis, or as part of a randomised controlled trial.[221] It is important to note that there may be serious adverse effects associated with these drugs, and that these adverse effects may overlap with the clinical manifestations of COVID-19. These drugs may also increase the risk of death in an older patient or a patient with an underlying health condition. For example, chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and lopinavir/ritonavir are all potentially associated with an increased risk of cardiac death.[222] The World Health Organization and its partners have launched the Solidarity trial, a large international study to compare different treatments and ensure clear evidence of which treatments are most effective. The study will have five arms: standard of care; remdesivir; lopinavir/ritonavir; lopinavir/ritonavir plus interferon beta; and chloroquine.[223] WHO: off-label use of medicines for COVID-19

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    OriginalSteve

    i predict people will totally lose it – if lockdown exceeds 3 months.
    And the economy will be badly damaged…talk about scorched earth….
    I hope the pollies are listening.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/coronavirus-data-modelling-covid19-stay-home/12114978

    “Australia is only a few days into its latest regime of strict self-isolation measures designed to fight the coronavirus pandemic, but already, many people are asking — when will they end?

    “Not before late July at the very earliest, modelling from the University of Sydney suggests.

    “The model, first published last week and now updated, shows:

    “Strict physical-distancing measures are beginning to work and Australians appear to have been about 90 per cent compliant with advice to stay at home wherever possible
    However, scaling back our isolation regime would cause case numbers to spike dramatically — until such time as new measures, especially more testing, are in place
    With the current measures, Australia should be close to the peak of new infections

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    Mark D.

    Temperature and survival information https://www.who.int/csr/sars/survival_2003_05_04/en/

    The above doesn’t mention this but paper items (like cash currency or mail) can be placed into a toaster oven or range oven set at 60C (140F) for 15-30 minutes* and should do the trick.

    *Please do not leave unattended, have a fire extinguisher handy and I am not liable for damages if you do something stupid.

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    richard

    Some common sense-

    “Professor John Oxford of Queen Mary University London, one of the world’s leading virologists and influenza specialists, comes to the following conclusion regarding Covid19: „Personally, I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good. Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!“

    John Oxford. John Oxford is the UK’s top expert on influenza and Emeritus Professor of Virology at the University of London.

    The ARTE documentary „Profiteers of Fear“ from 2009 shows how the mainly privately financed WHO „upgraded“ a mild wave of influenza (the so-called „swine flu“) to a global pandemic so that vaccines worth several billion dollars could be sold to governments around the world. Some of the protagonists of that time are again prominently represented in the current situation

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    AP

    Ah the good old times. Remember when we were worried that the “carbon tax” was a $10 billion budget black hole?

    http://joannenova.com.au/2013/04/eu-carbon-price-hits-junk-status-australian-government-hits-black-hole/

    SloMo just burnt through $300 billion in a couple of weeks. That’s gotta be some kind of record.

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    Jacques Lemiere

    inhaling a virus doesn’t mean infection..some data suggests the existence of dose effect.
    if inhaling any quantity of virus meant infection we would face a BIG problem.. and it would have been impossible to trace infection ..

    so not impossible but ..how likely is it?

    you msut study the known cases of infections..how they occured.

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    Sunni Bakchat

    Great post Jo! Common sense wins the day.

    Some reference touchpoints from throughout the week;

    - The information in the video is consistent with the german virologists research released this week. http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/ancient-technology-wins-quarantine-and-isolation-still-work/#comment-2303044
    - Dr John Campbell goes into detail on droplets versus aerosol in this video – https://youtu.be/F1JEbx9NY2I
    - Dr David Price who is working as an ER Pulmonologist at Cornell Medical Centre in Manhattan, NYC confirms from the frontline exactly what you have shown in the Youtube video from Japanese researchers. https://vimeo.com/399733860 .
    - As the Dr. Price video is long i’ve summarised the findings here – http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/coronavirus-treatment-antibodies-that-work-in-20-minutes-could-give-protection-for-8-weeks/#comment-2302896

    Dr Price sums it up best. To paraphrase; only when working in an enclosed environment for an extended period (20+ minutes), surrounded by those with viruses who are being asked to expurgate is full PPE (N95 mask, gown, head covering, goggles and gloves) required. It appears logical that we should now be contemplating a higher level of protection in enclosed settings where people densely congregate for prolonged periods. The metric seems to be, person per square metre multiplied by time. Perhaps apply a coefficient to each variable and derive a risk based number that should only be exceeded with higher levels of protection.

    Some notable epidemiological points ;

    - This virus, like so many viruses of the past few years, makes people cough for a sustained period. Either at the beginning or the end of the infected period. Sneezing seems to be secondary or an earlier iteration of the virus in an evolutionary sense. It strikes me the cough is an evolved attribute that assists in self-propagation of the virus. The host that is forced to cough or sneeze is helping the virus move from one host to another. Thus the virus that makes its host cough, is the virus that lives to infect another day and iterate itself billions of times in the hope of some random replication error leading to even broader spread.

    - The focus in the past several weeks has been binary on droplet size. Are they small or are they large? The best info to date has been that they are somewhere in between. Now we know there are two distinct size categories; each thus has its own implications in terms of how transmissability of the virus. In addition we know the production mechanism for these varying droplets is (a) Sneezing (b) Coughing (c) talking.

    - The question now arises as to the volume and concentration of virus particles emitted via each means of expulsion above (A, B or C)?

    - How does newly acquired knowledge of aerosol spread inform strategy on mitigation?

    - How much aerosolised virus is caught by a regular mask worn by carrier A, B or C?

    - Anecdotally speaking, many of the latin cultures seem to have social characteristics the virus could exploit e.g. close knit families, vertically integrated households, small living quarters, highly sociable way of life, close body spacing in conversation, garrulous tradition. I’d add the Chinese to the last item on the list. It’s not uncommon in any of these cultures to see a very garrulous conversation style with close proximate (body language) spacing.

    This virus seems to thrive in crowded, enclosed, talkative and/or densely infected environments where people spend extended periods of time (20-30min +) together without good protection. It seems we now need to invert our understanding of this virus and look at matters through the prism of minimisation of exposure to these spaces without protection. The longer term solution is undoubtedly a re-imagining of how ventilation should function. The shorter term solution is clearly masks and hand cleaning.

    I suspect masks will end up being as important in this pandemic as Hand washing was in the time of Semmelweis.

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      PTR

      The W.H.O. has until recently been reticent in addressing the need to use face masks; wonder how they would go advising on this one if the need be? It is evident that: males are being more seriously affected than females, the severity is aggravated by increased viral load, the virus is readily dispersed in the atmosphere in fine droplet form, an infected person is spreading the virus in the early days of infection, before physical symptoms become aggressive, and now the last one, that this hypothesis hinges on(?), the virus is shed in excreted waste product. In this particular instance urine. IIRC, for one at least, Konrad has discussed this possibility. When a male urinates in a toilet pan, there is a considerable amount of gas and no doubt fine matter ricochet back into the atmosphere. The individual is standing in that zone and inhaling this for so long as he is there. If the virus is present therein, he must surely be unconsciously re-dosing himself with every visit. He doesn’t need to be in a public toilet for this to happen.

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        Roger Knights

        As a follow-up to the above:
        Andrew McRae commented on another site:
        “There is evidence of the virus being present in urine and so some nurses have assumed the virus can become aerosolised during urination. This implies the air circulating around men’s urinals present a higher than usual risk of infection. … If an outbreak happens here, perhaps guys should temporarily join the sit-down club for the duration of the epidemic?? Better to swallow your pride than cough up a lung, I imagine.”

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    Curious George

    I wonder if the virus is suspended in the air as microdroplets – small drops evaporate fast. But water may cling to the virus. Most hikers know that we can disinfect water for drinking using UV light. Should we use UV light pulses to disinfect air in a room? Most surfaces as well?

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    ren

    This is not an influenza virus. This is the SARS virus, viral pneumonia.

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    ren

    A vaccine that only contains a virus envelope protein should be fairly safe.

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      ren, that is not a given. ACE2 cells matter, and tossing in something that binds to them can cause other side effects.Imagine that the vaccine blocks this aspect of our physiology or amps it up? Blood pressure problem?

      Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2)[5] is an enzyme attached to the outer surface (cell membranes) of cells in the lungs, arteries, heart, kidney, and intestines.[6][7] ACE2 lowers blood pressure by catalysing the cleavage of angiotensin II (a vasoconstrictor peptide) into angiotensin 1–7 (a vasodilator).[8][9][10] ACE2 also serves as the entry point into cells for some coronaviruses.[5] The human version of the enzyme is often known as hACE2.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2

      There can also be problems with cross reactivity — if we make antibodies to something that resembles our own cells or enzymes, we may create autoimmune disease and allergy. There are quite a lot of ways things can go wrong — hence the long testing times for vaccines.

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        ren

        If the vaccine does not contain virus RNA, it cannot reproduce. Yes, it can cause allergies.

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        ren

        Human testing will start soon in Germany. They started working on this vaccine in January.

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        ren

        There is also the question of giving the vaccine. Perhaps given intravenously will not have such an effect on the lungs. There is also a matter of the right dose that minimizes side effects.

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    Tim Spence

    If heat kills this thing, what quantity of heat? Body temperature is 98ºF (38ºc)

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      Sunni Bakchat

      Officially, 70 degrees centigrade inactivates the virus permanently within a few seconds.

      I’ll leave it to someone more knowledgeable to describe what happens between body temperature and 70. My understanding is that its activity rapidly degrades as temperature rises. Hence the human body runs a fever to create a more difficult environment for the virus to be active.

      Remember, the virus is not alive so it can’t be killed!

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    Raving

    Reeating hard numbers …

    20% mortality for those over 80 yrs
    10% mortality for those over 70 yrs

    The surprising thing is the very low number of deaths so far worldwide. Amongst other things it meansthat deaths go unreported. It als suggests that thereis already a lot of strong social distancing. It suggests early days for this andemic

    Repeating again … the 20% and 10% mortality for those over 80 and 70 yrs is areliable statistic. That makes for a huge number of corpses worldwide

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      bradd

      They are NOT reliable statistics. We have little hard info on the real number of cases.

      There were 1200 people over 70 (216 over 80) on the Diamond Princess, under perfect incubation conditions, and 11 of them died. Under your ‘reliable’ statistics, it should have been around 150.

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        Raving

        My statistics are for those who are infected.

        The Diamond Princess and all the other statistics are fascinating because not everyone gets infected.Transmission is a bit hit and miss. In retirement homes there is a lot of physical contact between staff and residents.

        Even on the DP not everyone was trsted. Its a mess!
        https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/03/18/what-percentage-have-covid-19-coronavirus-but-do-not-know-it/#3d36d24c7e90

        The thing about retirement homes is that they are like a terminal box. Oncethe virus gets in the door, the chances are that most will get infected. That closed terminating box is what makes themortality statistics reliable from that source.

        Outside the closed terminal box, its really hard to know how many are infected and transmitting

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        Raving

        I take your point but these 10% and 20% mortality numbers come from government epidemologists whose job is to calculate such things from research grade data. They explicitly made a point of saying that they were surprised the rates were so high. They also pointed out that deaths were most reliable typeof measure.

        Much more opportunity to sample things when the rates are 1% or less

        Deaths of old people is thebest quality data. Being able to appreciate even that is progress for science.

        Don’t shoot me. I am just the messenger

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        Raving

        Its easy to lose sight of what is important. The senior in the retirment home is like a canary in the coal mine. When the seal on the sterile nursing home environment is broken, the deaths of the residents will be detectable.

        This is vitaly imprtant information because a virus penetration to say 10% of the the overall population means that the sterile seal on most nursing homes will be broken.. It will become apparent to those who look out for it.

        If most nursing homes lack covid19 infections, there is low virus penetration in the community as a whole

        There are 754 licensed nursing homes in Ontario. Maybe the virus infection has penetrated 20 of them so far..

        It means th virus is not yet wide spread in the community

        Social distancing might be working but if it gets relaxed wevare way below peak death

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    Sunni Bakchat

    And here’s another long suspected infection pathway; Faecal-oral – https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/04/02/why-you-should-flush-with-the-lid-down-virologist-warns-of-fecal-oral-transmission-of-covid-19/#ca58b426eb8b

    Advice – Wear a mask in public toilets and flush with the seat cover down. Get in and get out if you have to go in.

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    Raving

    “COVID-19 could kill 3,000 to 15,000 people in Ontario, provincial modelling shows”

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575

    There are 756 registered retirement homesin Ontario. Maybe 10 of those locations have already been recognized as having been trsted and exposed to COVID19

    Its not going to take long to reach those 3,000 deaths. Pinecrest with 65 residents has already had 17 deaths.

    These statistics are real. Doesnt take much to get 3k deaths. Thatt isnt a hugenumber from a population of 2.5 million over 65 years

    Just talking about old folks in long term care. Havent considered COVID fatalities and ICU requirements for the 12 million younger Ontarians

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    ren

    The beginning of 2020 brought us information about the novel coronavirus emerging in China. Rapid research resulted in the characterization of the pathogen, which appeared to be a member of the SARS-like cluster, commonly seen in bats. Despite the global and local efforts, the virus escaped the healthcare measures and rapidly spread in China and later globally, officially causing a pandemic and global crisis in March 2020. At present, different scenarios are being written to contain the virus, but the development of novel anticoronavirals for all highly pathogenic coronaviruses remains the major challenge. Here, we describe the antiviral activity of previously developed by us HTCC compound (N-(2-hydroxypropyl)-3-trimethylammonium chitosan chloride), which may be used as potential inhibitor of currently circulating highly pathogenic coronaviruses – SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV.

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.29.014183v1?fbclid=IwAR1hnK36z4ykbgKTUy1-uI5PvYDV1DhiP9CFdYcc6sgioUMxfUCogjCLi9w

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    Another Ian

    I just got this in an email

    “An anti-parasitic drug available throughout the world has been found to kill COVID-19 in the lab within 48 hours.

    A Monash University-led study has shown a single dose of the drug Ivermectin could stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture.

    “We found that even a single dose could essentially remove all viral RNA (effectively removed all genetic material of the virus) by 48 hours and that even at 24 hours there was a really significant reduction in it,” Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute’s Dr Kylie Wagstaff said on Friday.

    While it’s not known how Ivermectin works on the virus, the drug likely stops the virus dampening the host cells’ ability to clear it.

    The next step is for scientists to determine the correct human dosage, to make sure the level used in vitro is safe for humans.”

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      robert rosicka

      Bit of info on the net about it Another Ian , I remember using it to drench sheep for parasites .

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  • #
    el gordo

    ‘The PM called on tourists to go home, as authorities grapple with the health risk of backpackers crammed into hostels.’ SMH

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    MudCrab

    So basically we should end the lockdown and allow… sorry, demand people go outside?

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    RickWill

    Not quite on topic but not far off.

    Italy is seeking support from its EU “partners” to create Eurobonds to help fund its lockdown and recovery.
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/italian-pm-floats-idea-of-corona-bonds-to-restart-eu-economy/

    Both Russia and China are stepping up to the plate to help Italy.

    I think Italexit is getting closer. Italy needs to be able to issue its own currency to help control its internal issues. If it was not linked to the more powerful EU partners, China may provide low interest loans.
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/30/russia-china-coronavirus-geopolitics/

    Following a recent phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, the Russian government sent Italy nine aircraft and more than 100 experts, along with medical supplies.

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    OriginalSteve

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/19/mylan-ramping-up-production-of-hydroxychloroquine.aspx

    March 19

    “Mylan (NASDAQ:MYL) has restarted production of its hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets at its West Virginia manufacturing facility as a potential treatment for COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. The company plans to have product available by mid-April and thinks it can ramp up to 50 million tablets, which could treat more than 1.5 million people.

    “Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic metabolite of chloroquine, are antiviral medications that are approved to treat malaria. Because it’s less toxic and has anti-inflammatory properties, hydroxychloroquine is also approved to treat a pair of auto-immune disorders, lupus erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis.

    “An article published in the journal Cell Research in February showed that chloroquine inhibited the 2019-nCoV coronavirus as well as Gilead Sciences’ (NASDAQ:GILD) remdesivir in an experiment testing how well the virus infects cells grown in a laboratory. Gilead is running a late-stage clinical trial of remdesivir as a COVID-19 treatment, but since it hasn’t been approved for any diseases, remdesivir isn’t as widely available as chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine.

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    eliza

    Jo wake up https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120805778/coronavirus-to-swedes-its-the-rest-of-the-world-engaging-in-a-reckless-experiment you will be proved 100 percent wrong and you are pandering to incredible human stupidity as described by Eistein. People like you are actually causing incredible damage to the survival of the human race

    [Wow! All that? Really? Sorry I personally don't want the alternative notion you're blabbing about. Population of Sweden : population of New York. Make a better argument please?] [Oh FFS what about population density comparison?]ED

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    RickWill

    This is an impressive yet sobering account of where New York Is in its battle:
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/01/cuomo-new-york-state-death-toll-tops-1900-up-from-1550.html

    This is an interesting timeline of Cuomo press meetings:
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/30/cuomo-on-coronavirus-watch-a-timeline-of-his-comments-since-february.html

    Cuomo highlighted the specific issues NY has with regard to controlling a virus; was overly cocky about the NY hospital system; became increasingly desperate but still holding it together well. The State is a basket case but Cuomo will come through it looking OK. Probably better than Trump on their respective COVID19 actions.

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      Boris

      Rick

      you think these are accurate reports?

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        RickWill

        They are just press conferences. The data Cuomo is referencing in the first video is what is coming out of the hospitals. There is no way of knowing how many did not make it to hospital.

        The WA University prediction is for NY daily deaths to peak at 855 on 10th April. The actual is tracking very close to the prediction.

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          Boris

          So you think the hospital reports are accurate?

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            RickWill

            I expect New York hospital reports are accurate for what is going on in hospitals. It will be quite q while before there is some idea of the real picture. Once police, firefighters and military start collecting bodies from residences a clearer picture of deaths will emerge but there will be no post mortem to know cause of death.

            The picture in NY should be clearer by the end of April.

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    Umm, just asking here.

    My good lady wife and I have both had the Pneumonia vaccine on our GP’s recommendation.

    They are recommended (and also free) for those people over the age of 65. Barbara has had two of them, and I have had one. You only need to vaccinated once in your lifetime for (a level of) immunity, and evidently, you can get the second one five years or so after the first.

    The following is taken from the website at this link, and there’s a short video at the link:

    One of them (and here I might suggest this is the first one) is PCV13 and it helps protect people from 13 of the most severe types of bacteria that cause pneumonia, and the second is PPSV23 and that one protects against an additional 23 types of pneumonia bacteria. Neither can prevent every type of pneumonia, but they work against more than 30 common, severe types.

    People who need a pneumonia vaccine should get both shots: first, the PCV13 shot and then the PPSV23 shot a year or more later. For most people, one of each shot should be enough to protect them for their entire lives. Sometimes, you may need a booster shot. Ask your doctor whether you should get one.

    I am only mentioning this as mainly informational, and I was looking to see if it might offer any level of protection against COVID-19, but I couldn’t really find anything, so the idea is to mention it here and get more eyes onto the search, but I suspect it might not be the case.

    Tony.

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    Tony is in moderation, after the Rick Will Comment 32

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    Raving

    Trump has banned the export of 3M N95 masks to Canada and Europe

    Look at this … “Nanaimo’s Harmac mill works to fill doubled pulp order for medical masks and gowns”

    https://www.vicnews.com/business/nanaimos-harmac-mill-works-to-fill-doubled-pulp-order-for-medical-masks-and-gowns/

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    Bill In Oz

    Apologies if this has been posted already but maybe Ivermactin will get us all back to normal soon !
    Ivermectin is a widely used farm worm drench available at all Farm Supplies stores !

    “An anti-parasitic drug available throughout the world has been found to kill COVID-19 in the lab within 48 hours.

    A Monash University-led study has shown a single dose of the drug Ivermectin could stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture.

    “We found that even a single dose could essentially remove all viral RNA (effectively removed all genetic material of the virus) by 48 hours and that even at 24 hours there was a really significant reduction in it,” Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute’s Dr Kylie Wagstaff said on Friday.

    While it’s not known how Ivermectin works on the virus, the drug likely stops the virus dampening the host cells’ ability to clear it.

    The next step is for scientists to determine the correct human dosage, to make sure the level used in vitro is safe for humans.”

    Good news at last !

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    Another Ian

    “I’m not sure why so many of one political party want to say that hydroxychloroquine azythromycin is only anecdotally effective. Maybe they don’t know what that word means.”

    https://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/strong-data-again/

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      Bill In Oz

      I wonder how the Dimocrats will react to Ivermectin ?
      It’s sheep cattle & horse drench !
      It might also kill of the TDS – Trump derangement Disorder !

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    Gerard

    I heard the Victorian Premier this morning say that school will start as scheduled Tuesday the 14th but he wasn’t sure of what form that would be. It would foolish to have non socially isolated classrooms.

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    Destroyer D69

    How effective as a decontaminator would the UV lights used in NDT testing be? Some of these have a high level of UV but it may not be in the correct level to be a good disinfectant…

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    WXcycles

    AFRICA

    Snapshot of where Africa is at today, no countries were excluded.

    The Continent as a whole:

    Active | New | % New of Active
    6,621 … 863 … 13.03%

    Cases | Deaths | % Died of Total Cases
    7,646 … 326 … 4.26%

    The % died is already high, considering how small the died numbers are, and total cases as well, which indicates only the sickest or died patients are being tested and confirmed. The 13% expansion per day of known cases is high-ish, but that should be in 25% to 35% range this early on. Probably isolation is taking place already.

    Africa Totals at end of 3rd April 2020 (10AM QLD AEST April 4th 2020. Worldometer)

    Total Cases 7,646
    New Cases 863
    Total Deaths 326
    New Deaths 47
    Total Recov 699
    Active cases 6,621
    Serious/Crit 47

    Every country in Africa in order of Total Cases:

    Country | Total Cases
    South Africa … 1,505
    Algeria … 1,171
    Egypt … 985
    Morocco … 791
    Cameroon … 509
    Tunisia … 495
    Burkina Faso … 302
    Ivory Coast … 218
    Nigeria … 210
    Senegal … 207
    Ghana … 205
    DRC … 148
    Kenya … 122
    Niger … 120
    Rwanda … 89
    Madagascar … 70
    Djibouti … 49
    Uganda … 48
    Togo … 40
    Mali … 39
    Zambia … 39
    Ethiopia … 35
    Congo … 22
    Eritrea … 22
    Gabon … 21
    Tanzania … 20
    Libya … 17
    Benin … 16
    Guinea-Bissau … 15
    Namibia … 14
    Sudan … 10
    Mozambique … 10
    Zimbabwe … 9
    Eswatini … 9
    Angola … 8
    CAR … 8
    Chad … 8
    Liberia … 7
    Somalia … 7
    Mauritania … 6
    Botswana … 4
    Gambia … 4
    Belize … 4
    Burundi … 3
    Malawi … 3
    Sierra Leone … 2

    Percent died for all African countries where data is available:

    % Died | Country | Total Cases
    25.00 … Angola … 8
    25.00 … Botswana … 4
    25.00 … Gambia … 4
    20.00 … Sudan … 10
    16.67 … Mauritania … 6
    11.11 … Zimbabwe … 9
    10.81 … DRC … 148
    9.09 … Congo … 22
    8.97 … Algeria … 1,171
    7.69 … Mali … 39
    7.50 … Togo … 40
    6.70 … Egypt … 985
    6.07 … Morocco … 791
    5.88 … Libya … 17
    5.30 … Burkina Faso … 302
    5.00 … Tanzania … 20
    4.76 … Gabon … 21
    4.17 … Niger … 120
    3.64 … Tunisia … 495
    3.28 … Kenya … 122
    2.56 … Zambia … 39
    2.44 … Ghana … 205
    1.90 … Nigeria … 210
    1.57 … Cameroon … 509
    0.60 … South Africa … 1,505
    0.48 … Senegal … 207
    0.46 … Ivory Coast … 218

    Percent New Cases verses Active Cases for all the countries where data exists:

    % New v Active | Country | Total Cases
    62.5 … CAR … 8
    41.9 … Cameroon … 509
    40.0 … Guinea-Bissau … 15
    37.5 … Libya … 17
    33.3 … Sudan … 10
    33.3 … Somalia … 7
    25.0 … Belize … 4
    22.0 … Djibouti … 49
    21.4 … Benin … 16
    19.1 … Niger … 120
    18.8 … Ethiopia … 35
    18.4 … Algeria … 1,171
    17.1 … Egypt … 985
    15.7 … Madagascar … 70
    14.4 … Nigeria … 210
    14.3 … Liberia … 7
    12.1 … Ivory Coast … 218
    12.1 … Morocco … 791

    10.9 … DRC … 148
    10.5 … Kenya … 122
    8.6 … Senegal … 207
    8.5 … Tunisia … 495
    8.3 … Mali … 39
    6.3 … Uganda … 48
    5.9 … Burkina Faso … 302
    5.6 … Rwanda … 89
    5.0 … Togo … 40
    3.1 … South Africa … 1,505
    0.6 … Ghana … 205

    It’s not on the level of what’s developing in South and Central America, plus the Caribbean–almost certainly due to a lack of testing of the sick though.

    __
    If persnickety persons wish to repeat that the data is “meaningless”, sans large-scale random testing of the African population, please don’t bother. That is a fantasy, the above is the possible. Everyone who examines incomplete and poorly sampled and unrepresentative data knows it requires subjective tentative interpretation, and few if any conclusions. Serious decisions will be made on the basis of that data so ignoring it is not an option, no matter how it offends the methodologically pious.

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    WXcycles

    Every country about 250 cases, and above 2.5% deaths.

    % Died | Country | Total Cases | % New v Active
    12.75 … San Marino … 251 … 3.1
    12.25 … Italy … 119,827 … 5.4
    10.11 … France … 64,338 … 11.9
    9.46 … Netherlands … 15,723 … 7.3
    9.45 … UK … 38,168 … 12.9
    9.39 … Spain … 119,199 … 9.2
    9.11 … Indonesia … 1,986 … 11.7
    8.97 … Algeria … 1,171 … 18.4
    6.82 … Belgium … 16,770 … 11.1
    6.70 … Egypt … 985 … 17.1
    6.59 … Iraq … 820 … 8.9
    6.19 … Iran … 53,183 … 8.5
    6.07 … Morocco … 791 … 12.1
    5.84 … Sweden … 6,131 … 10.1
    5.59 … Albania … 304 … 13.6
    5.30 … Burkina Faso … 302 … 5.9
    4.57 … Dominican Rep … 1,488 … 7.7
    4.51 … Philippines … 3,018 … 13.6
    4.31 … Ecuador … 3,368 … 6.5
    4.18 … Romania … 3,183 … 16.1
    4.17 … Hungary … 623 … 6.9
    3.95 … Brazil … 9,194 … 13.2
    3.91 … Greece … 1,613 … 4.7
    3.82 … Peru … 1,595 … 18.2
    3.70 … Denmark … 3,757 … 15.3
    3.64 … Andorra … 439 … 2.7
    3.64 … Tunisia … 495 … 8.5
    3.35 … Lebanon … 508 … 3.2
    3.31 … Mexico … 1,510 … 16.0
    3.10 … Argentina … 1,353 … 8.4
    3.01 … Switzerland … 19,606 … 5.5
    2.94 … Bosnia & Herz … 579 … 8.6
    2.89 … Bulgaria … 485 … 6.3
    2.81 … Ireland … 4,273 … 10.3
    2.80 … India … 2,567 … 1.0
    2.79 … N. Macedonia … 430 … 11.6
    2.78 … Cyprus … 396 … 11.2
    2.67 … USA … 276,965 … 12.5
    2.64 … Serbia … 1,476 … 22.1
    2.52 … Ukraine … 1,072 … 17.1

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    WXcycles

    Every country above 250 ACTIVE, sorted by New Cases, three countries with incomplete removed.

    New Cases | Country | Active cases | Total Deaths
    32,088 … USA … 257,291 … 7,391
    7,134 … Spain … 77,488 … 11,198
    6,365 … Germany … 65,309 … 1,275
    5,233 … France … 43,823 … 6,507
    4,585 … Italy … 85,388 … 14,681
    4,450 … UK … 34,428 … 3,605
    2,786 … Turkey … 20,012 … 425
    2,715 … Iran … 31,954 … 3,294
    1,422 … Belgium … 12,755 … 1,143
    1,150 … Brazil … 8,704 … 363
    1,092 … Canada … 9,981 … 208
    1,026 … Netherlands … 13,986 … 1,487
    852 … Portugal … 9,572 … 246
    779 … Switzerland … 14,169 … 591
    601 … Russia … 3,834 … 34
    571 … Israel … 6,985 … 40
    563 … Sweden … 5,568 … 358
    445 … Romania … 2,767 … 133
    437 … Poland … 3,256 … 71
    424 … Ireland … 4,128 … 120
    395 … Austria … 9,334 … 168
    385 … Philippines … 2,830 … 136
    371 … Denmark … 2,425 … 139
    333 … Chile … 3,288 … 22
    332 … Czechia … 4,065 … 53
    305 … Serbia … 1,383 … 39
    265 … Pakistan … 2,520 … 40
    240 … UAE … 1,147 … 9
    223 … Norway … 5,279 … 59
    217 … Malaysia … 2,453 … 53
    205 … Ecuador … 3,158 … 145
    203 … Cameroon … 484 … 8
    198 … Panama … 1,622 … 41
    196 … Indonesia … 1,671 … 181
    185 … Algeria … 1,004 … 105
    181 … Peru … 997 … 61
    175 … Ukraine … 1,023 … 27
    154 … Saudi Arabia … 1,663 … 25
    140 … Australia … 4,841 … 28
    132 … Mexico … 827 … 50
    126 … Qatar … 979 … 3
    125 … Luxembourg … 2,081 … 31
    120 … Egypt … 703 … 66
    108 … Dominican Rep … 1,404 … 68
    106 … Colombia … 1,187 … 25
    103 … Thailand … 1,347 … 19
    103 … Estonia … 901 … 12
    97 … Finland … 1,295 … 20
    88 … Argentina … 1,045 … 42
    86 … S. Korea … 3,867 … 174
    86 … Moldova … 557 … 8
    83 … Morocco … 686 … 48
    73 … Armenia … 686 … 7
    71 … New Zealand … 764 … 1
    69 … Greece … 1,472 … 63
    68 … Croatia … 979 … 8
    65 … Singapore … 827 … 5
    48 … Iraq … 540 … 54
    47 … Lithuania … 680 … 9
    47 … Belarus … 294 … 4
    46 … Bosnia & Herz … 535 … 17
    46 … N. Macedonia … 398 … 12
    45 … Iceland … 1,051 … 4
    43 … South Africa … 1,401 … 9
    43 … Hong Kong … 668 … 4
    43 … Azerbaijan … 406 … 5
    40 … Tunisia … 472 … 18
    40 … Cyprus … 357 … 11
    38 … Hungary … 554 … 26
    37 … Slovenia … 844 … 20
    36 … Uruguay … 296 … 4
    35 … Latvia … 491 … 1
    29 … Kazakhstan … 429 … 6
    29 … Bahrain … 286 … 4
    28 … Bulgaria … 441 … 14
    24 … India … 2,303 … 72
    24 … Slovakia … 439 … 1
    20 … Costa Rica … 403 … 2
    14 … Lebanon … 441 … 17
    11 … Andorra … 407 … 16
    09 … Taiwan … 293 … 5
    08 … Afghanistan … 265 … 6

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    WXcycles

    France finally blew up today.

    All daily New Deaths above 10:

    New Deaths | Country | Total Cases
    1,320 … USA … 276,965
    1,120 … France … 64,338
    850 … Spain … 119,199
    766 … Italy … 119,827
    684 … UK … 38,168
    168 … Germany … 91,159
    148 … Netherlands … 15,723
    134 … Iran … 53,183
    132 … Belgium … 16,770
    69 … Turkey … 20,921
    55 … Switzerland … 19,606
    50 … Sweden … 6,131
    39 … Brazil … 9,194
    37 … Portugal … 9,886
    35 … Canada … 12,375
    29 … Philippines … 3,018
    25 … Ecuador … 3,368
    22 … Ireland … 4,273
    19 … Algeria … 1,171
    18 … Romania … 3,183
    16 … Denmark … 3,757
    14 … Poland … 3,383
    13 … Mexico … 1,510
    11 … Indonesia … 1,986
    10 … Austria … 11,524
    10 … Greece … 1,613

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    JanEarth

    The 21st century is the time when everything changes.The long sleep we have been in since the 1970s is over and from this year the way we organize and do things will be different. if you are curious about the big sleep watch JRE #1453 with Eric Weinstein and about two thirds of the way in Eric will describe it way better than I could possibly can.

    Regarding the Virus and Jo’s musing on this I agree with nearly everything she has written and wished for except one point. You cannot stop a virus. This is an impossible goal. At some point down the track we all will catch the CCP virus. That is inevitable. That does not take anything away from what Jo has urged our governments to do because this was always about flattening the curve and giving the medical system time to deal with the sick in a way that did not overwhelm the system. Also to Jo’s critics I would say that sometimes hyperbole is necessary to awaken people from their slumber.

    The sad fact is that some how we think that ventilators are a life saver and the clamour for more ventilators bears this out. Also a sad fact that ventilators are used up by the age group that will least benefit from them. If a 70 year old gets to the point where mechanical ventilation is required and they are actually hooked up then the Gig is up. For way to long we have been spending too much of our health budgets on the last two years of life. This should stop.

    If anyone thinks that things will return to ‘normal’ then you probably need to prepare yourself. The world is heading into a depression the likes of which we have never seen before. It will be hard as we have all become soft and accustomed to the entitlements that have been granted to us. Also judging by the hate I have seen directed at the Chinese people, here and elsewhere, we are also heading into the greatest war of all time and on this point I really hope I am wrong. I cannot be optimistic about this because the war drums are becoming louder and louder and this is never a good sign.

    I do see hope. The Chinese people are rising up against the CCP and doing so by taking the ultimate risk, that of losing their lives. We can assist them by directing our loathing and disgust of their system and directing the anger at the Chinese Communist Party and not the Chinese people. If the Chinese people rise up against the CCP and win then the threat of war is vastly diminished. We can play a small part in this by referring to SARS-Cov-19 as the CCP virus. I took this cue from the Taiwanese who have bravely been staring the CCP in the face and flipping them the middle finger for decades. Calling this the Chinese Virus is a slight against them and all the brave people in mainland China who are openly opposing their government. I implore all of you to start calling this what it is…The CCP Virus.

    I also see hope that within my lifetime we will see the end of the EU, already it is showing acute signs of distress and the fault lines are clearly visible. On top of that I also believe we will see the end of the US global empire which has done nothing to further the health and welfare of US citizens who now beginning see the folly of spending trillions of dollars in war and war machines while letting their health system get to a state where they find themselves in at the moment.

    The world is waking from it’s big sleep. Hold on because this is going to be a wild ride but with luck and care on our part the phoenix that rises from the ashes will be better world for all humanity.

    Take care everyone…Eyes open…be safe

    P.S. take the time to watch JRE #1453…most of you have plenty of time on your hands anyway.

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    TdeF

    My favorite graph at the moment. As I predicted, there is a steep cliff. Coming. The Ruby Princess was an example of imported virus and let go unrestrained into the community. These individual sources are traceable in a country like Australia. Otherwise you can map the infections, from ski trips, school holidays, cruises, visitors generally. That is the left hand side, exponential growth.

    However when you stop it, there is still a period of 7-10 days before people show up as infected and then you cut off that branch, so a 14 days to no virus spread now that we have a closed system and the little bit a variability gives the smooth cliff edge on the right.

    What I hope is that within a week now, there are only a few cases. And remember these are infections which are happening today, not a week from now. Isolation, detection, tracing, isolation leads to extermination of the virus. I would hope that by the end of the month, there is not a single new case reported, which means no infection in the previous week.

    Then we are free. Unfortunately with perhaps 4,000 sick people and any infection which might come from them. So it is critical that these people are isolated and that their carers are tested continually. And protected as much as is possible. And tested.

    I think we could start to turn on slowly by then. Certainly any country areas with no record of infection. Keep the bans on travel, internationally certainly, but also interstate and intercity. No unnecessary travel. It looks like a late Easter, but then that is better than no Easter.

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      TdeF

      And while I retried this, it has lobbed before comments made at 2pm? I know I can take my time, but the last comment was 2:25pm. and this is 4:46?

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    TdeF

    And a comment on bigger countries. Norway, Sweden and Australia have a comparable number of cases. America has passed China.

    This has nothing to do with population really. Scaling by population has nothing to do with the number of infected people.

    Assuming a single point of entry, the thing say doubles and doubles and doubles. As long as you do not run out of people, there is no limit. Ten doubles, say 3 weeks at 2 days to double is 1000x
    Six weeks is 1,000,000x. So a single point can yield a million victims in six weeks.

    So the population has noting directly to do with it, like India or Indonesia or China, which is 4x the size of America but fewer infections.

    The difference is that China knew it was loose. They knew what it was. They knew it was highly infective and most were asymptomatic and often lethal. America did not know this. The press were speculation on whether it was infective by air during the boat drama at Yokahama. They were debating whether it was infective by touch. They were debating the proportion of asyptomatic people.
    Not only was this already known in China, they said nothing. And the WHO said nothing, despite the report from Taiwan, because Taiwan did not exist to WHO.

    And in that period, 750,000 people left China for America. To many cities, many points of origin and they moved around. More millions left for other countries and moved around. And any suggestion that there was a problem was racist or xenophobic.

    So some countries will have deaths in proportion to the number of cities and points of entry and tourism. For America, that is scores of cities. For Australia, it is five. For Sweden it is Stockholm and Malmo. For Norway it is Oslo.

    In the US there are many pandemics underway simultaneously, because the busiest airports in the world are there. Atlanta, New York, Los Angeles, not just a big population.

    So expect infection in Delhi, Mumbai, Agra, Jaipur and in Africa in Belt and road points of entry.

    If only the Chinese government had said something, but they were too busy hiding the latest killer virus out of Wuhan. This one escaped from the military Wuhan Institute of Virology. They boasted about making it in 2017. It escaped. It is a weapon of mass destruction created by the army. No one else would do this. And when it escaped, they told no one outside China.

    It needs to be isolated and by isolating it, it will die. There is no other way.

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      TdeF

      Of course it could just be a coincidence that the virus is exactly like the one described by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. And pigs will fly.

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      Howie from Indiana

      One of the problems here in the USA is that people are not taking this seriously. Several preachers have been arrested for holding services. People are not wearing masks when they go shopping. Some stores have erected barriers at checkout but not all have.
      I don’t go out unless I have to but when I do I wear mask and disposable gloves.

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    WXcycles

    The UK really stuck out today on the graphs, there were 684 deaths during yesterday, but only 163 serious/critical. Which indicates most people are being turned away from the UK hospitals, or are not even attending them, so the very sick are dying in sharply increased numbers at home. One might ask who is occupying the UK’s critical care beds then, if not serious-critical COVID-19 cases? Could they not admit any more then 163? This UK pattern is not occurring in any other newly overwhelmed country with a high % died number. It suggests the already terrible UK 9.45% died will jump higher soon.

    Germany’s is the other anomalous highly-infected country with only 1.4% died. This remains a very suspiciously low percentage. It’s partly because Germany’s new cases each day are the 3rd highest. Their new cases are higher than Italy, or France or the UK, so the unrelenting growth of cases is helping to dilute the new deaths percent, which is rising at about 0.1% per day. But with these case numbers Germany should be reporting 800 to 900 deaths each day (i.e. former Italy peak level), but are instead reporting only 168 new deaths. The only thing which could explain this is an unparalleled amount of community-testing within Germany which findings many asymptomatic cases. But this also can not be true, because Germany’s serious/critical cases have (very recently) moon-shot up to approximate the same general proportions as seen for Italy, Spain and France.

    So it isn’t extra asymptotic detection. So where are all of Germany’s many thousands of implied deaths? They’re still attempting to hide them, even when the jig is up. Germany’s now a fully fledged member of the cohort which contains France, Netherlands, Belgium, UK, Spain and Italy, the powers that be there just want to play their charades for a few more days.

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    WXcycles

    Queensland has 27 new confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) raising the state total to 900.

    https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/current-status-and-contact-tracing-alerts

    Amazing result, shows we can and will beat it with such basic methods.

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    Choroin

    Ewww

    This video almost makes me want to be a hypochondriac shut-in.

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    Howie from Indiana

    The need for masks when out in the public should have been apparent from the beginning but has been slow to catch on here in the USA. Why our leaders haven’t emphasised the importance of masks is a mystery to me. The response to this pandemic in the US can be summed up as TO LITTLE TOO LATE.

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      Roger Knights

      “Why our leaders haven’t emphasised the importance of masks is a mystery to me.”

      It’s been suggested that they were told to soft-peddle them, so that they’d be available for health-care workers, who have a greater need.

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    WXcycles

    We’re all Howard Hughs now (minus the billions).

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    Roy Hogue

    That’s a very apt comparison, including, “…minus the billions.”

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      Roy Hogue

      The comment nesting has failed again. L-(

      Howard had nothing to fear, he was imagining his demons. His genius was probably his downfall.

      Our demon is very real and deadly.

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        Roy Hogue

        I wonder how many people will know about Howard Hughes and his last years or his genius. Guys like you and me are interested in aviation and we read it’s history. He died in 1976. How many people were born since then? And Hughes was out of the public eye for a long time before his death.

        Howard, You were one of a kind, a remarkable genius who’s contributions to the world should be remembered. Rest in peace.

        00