Locking up the olds and letting this rip still has some drawbacks.
Coronavirus: Nearly 800 people under the age of 50 have died in the US
Alex Woodward, The Independent
Nearly 200 people in the US in their thirties have died from coronavirus, among the nearly 800 people under age 50 who have died following the outbreak.
At least 45 Americans in their twenties have died from the Covid-19 disease caused by the virus, not including another nine deaths involving people under 20 years old, according to data collected by The Washington Post.
One third of young deaths had no known co-morbidity. Doctors have little idea what factors increase their risk. It may be genes, which is yet another reason to hammer this down and delay this round. Gene and blood tests might enable us to figure out who was high risk of being hospitalized.
How many deaths among the under 50 will the average person tolerate before they stop sending their kids to school out of fear?
Hundreds of young Americans have now been killed by the coronavirus, data shows
Chris Mooney, Brady Denis, Sarah Kaplan, Washington Post
Similarly, in New York, 64 percent of patients between the ages of 30 and 39 who died of the disease suffered from a preexisting condition, usually high blood pressure or diabetes. But that still leaves about a third of cases without such a possible contributing factor.
He said younger patients he has seen tend to come in later, after battling the disease at home for longer. But for those who take a tragic turn, it often happens quickly.
“When they do deteriorate, they do so much more dramatically,” he said.
In those cases, Evans said, the lack of oxygen makes the right side of the heart work extra hard, which leads to pulmonary hypertension. “The lungs clamp down. They can’t get blood flow into the lungs.”
What has profoundly struck Evans and his colleagues is the seeming randomness of the type of young people who are unable to fight off the disease.
“A very fit 30-year-old triathlete is just as vulnerable as a chess-playing 45-year-old who gets no exercise,” he said. “We just don’t know who it is that this virus carries the master key to.”
How many deaths will it take to get “herd immunity”, assuming that herd immunity is still possible?
There are still too many unknowns. In the USA, total known infections are 500,000, so we know 1 in 660 of the population are infected. True infections are larger, but some of the deaths from this half million are still yet to play out.
It is known that obesity is, as well as co-morbidities, a significant factor in death from Covid-19. A significant percentage of the US population is clinically obese. It is also known, but not yet understood why, that Black, Asian and ethnic minorities (BAME) are significantly more susceptible to Coronavirus. The US ‘hotspots’ have high BAME populations as do the UK’s ‘hotspots’.
Perhaps these two factors are contributing to deaths in under 50s although at a total of around 800 it is still a relatively small percentage of the nearly 19,000 who have so far died in the USA.
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The US Surgeon General addressed the disproportionate ethnic death rates from the CCP virus:
“One of the things I’m most proud of is what I’ve been able to do for the African American community. The lowest job numbers in the history of our country,” Trump said, adding that they’ve also had “better health care than they’ve ever had before.”
Adams on Friday also underscored how important it is for these communities to follow the administration’s social distancing guidelines and to refrain from drug, tobacco and alcohol abuse.
Link: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/10/politics/jerome-adams-minority-communities-coronavirus/index.html
Of course, had Trump said this, he would have been labelled racist. Heck, he’ll probably still be called that based on the Surgeon General’s statements anyway…
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Roger
Whilst a generality I posted a study on that a couple of days ago which showed the numbers of the BAME communities who were obese, had heart disease, smoked had high blood pressure, diabetes etc was often substantially higher than in many other groupings. Add in generally poorer housing and more crowded conditions and the higher death rates become clearer.
Some categories don’t fit those generalities, for example certain Asian groups, but to those-as with Italians and Spanish -you can sometimes add greater amount of touching and embracing, living in inter generational homes, greater propensity to share food off the same plate as part of the hospitality culture
Early on in the pandemic a study showed a larger than expected number of Muslims and Jews had covid 19 and that was thought to have been due to two especially big festivities just around the time the pandemic was growing and this enabled infections to spread more rapidly
80
There have been some reports that deaths are being over-reported in the US. There have been videos of doctors stating that they have been instructed to report all deaths as CV related and apparently the number of deaths attributable to pneumonia have fallen off a cliff, as compared to historical data for the corresponding period. It is as if the reporting of more deaths, and the inclusion of younger age groups in the toll is seen, by some, as being necessary to keep the momentum of fear in the community, which has handed our government so much power.
It would be good to have more background on these deaths occurring in the younger age groups.
50
Without knowing any underlying conditions with these younger patients its still a scary scenario if a valid observation, I’d guess many here were quite athletic in their prime and if you can cast memories back that far you would’ve thought yourself six foot high and bullet proof, party all night, processed junk food like a greyhound and the immune system of a T-Rex.
The days of pneumonia being a condition of the elderly or premature born is now tipped on its head with perhaps the most efficient virus known to modern medicine, lets hope Western medicine can again lead the charge for cures or treatments.
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Jo, this is interesting.
Ive been trying to find the Sweden official figures but its been fruitless so far. Ill keep digging.
https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/health-care/item/35385-86-of-new-yorkers-who-died-with-chinese-virus-had-other-illnesses-conditions
Official NY stats :
https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n#/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no
“Data released from New York state show that the vast majority of Empire Staters who supposedly died from the Chinese Virus had at least one underlying disease or condition, and that almost the same number of people were more than 60 years old.
“And even those in a younger cohort who died also had other health problems called comorbidities.
“The latest data show that healthy young people aren’t likely to die from the disease, and invite the question of why quarantines are directed at the whole population, rather than the most vulnerable — the sick and the elderly.
“The Numbers
“Perhaps the most telling numbers are those that show the vast majority who have died suffered underlying illnesses or conditions: 4,732 out of 5,489 of the deceased, or 86.2 percent.
“For instance, of those victims 80 to 89 years old, 836 had high blood pressure, 488 had diabetes, and 227 had coronary artery disease. Another 157 suffered kidney disease, 148 had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 136 had cancer, and 132 had congestive heart failure.
“Those figures are similar in the 60-69 age cohort: 572 had high blood pressure and 444 had diabetes, while 133 suffered with kidney disease and 119 with coronary artery disease. Another 88 had cancer and 46 had congestive heart failure.
“Yet even younger carriers suffered with other potentially fatal diseases.
50
One keeps reading about age and comorbidities, and the inference may be right – but unproven!
It’s almost like a correlation. The statistics may be there, no doubt, but it’s like saying the car
died because its ancient engine failed, as expected. However, that doesn’t reveal why the ancient
engine failed despite all its wear and tear. I think that’s where we are at.
Age and comorbidities go together, but in ageing so much else is going on. I think it is unwise
to jump to the conclusion that it’s the popularly known comorbidities that are the risk. How many
people with those same comorbidities survive or have little in the way of symptoms?
I don’t say the theory is wrong, but there are a lot of other things happening from the age of thirty, and at differing rates as we dig our final resting places. This article would include
the circulation, the lungs, haematology and coagulation, the kidneys and drugs routinely taken
or given.
Today there are a lot more weapons to investigate the human body than were available even a
decade ago. The cellular and circulation details known now are at molecular level. The ‘comorbidity’ issues are ‘Oh! So yesterday’ in generalisations. My interest is more in what modern, technologically advanced methodologies will reveal for us as this goes on.
10
” How many people with those same comorbidities survive or have little in the way of symptoms?”
Really Doc?
I’ve been reading your comments long enough to know that you already know the answer to that.
🙂
KK Kurve Krusha.
20
And??
In 2017 2.8 million people died in America thats over 50,000 a week
Most had co morbid disease and 75% were overv60 years
Of course there will be under 50 year old
There are so many people who have other life threatening diseases
Drug addicts, obesity, etc
We all die eventually
Let’s get some perspective on this issue
What is the collateral damage to the economy and young and healthy people
These arececonomically vulnerable
Are we going to push them over the edge??
252
As Sam Vaknin formulated in a recent video talk of his “Why commit suicide in order to avoid death”
104
People are mostly caring and compassionate
That’s why they have accepted the draconian measures taken so far
However they are not stupid
They are starting to work out they are being sacrificed to save mainly the old and frail that have limited remaining life and would most likely pass away shortly in any case
Their economic and mental health well-being is the collateral damage that is being ignored
If the government doesnt take note soon and starts accepting we have to take a middle road which will unfortunately take out some of these frail elderly and other immune or health deficient parts society, then it’s likely the masses will turn on the government and those experts
The media is complicit in this
Their business model is pushing a one sided emotional argument and exaggerating everything to get maximum emotional respone
There is no happy ending out of this mess!
There has to be a middle ground
Hard pragmatic decisions have to be made to ensure the patient (the rest of the young and healthy population) and aren’t crushed for the rest of their lives
The tipping point is very near
Remember about 165,000 people die in Australia very year
That’s over 3000 a week
Why isn’t the media putting the balance into this narrative
242
Let’s remember that one of Trump’s crowning jewels was the economy’s success. It is totally in the media’s interest to undermine that prior to this year’s election. Too bad for them that Trump’s popularity has increased as he handles the situation fairly well. Meanwhile the Democrats keep stalling economic rescue packages to insert ridiculous progressive BS. Pelosi, Schumer and most especially Shifty Schiff are morally bankrupt.
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Even with 50% of the US not working, apparently the US economy is at the same point it was when Obama left office.
So what was the virus back then. (I know the answer BOvid 16)
30
🙂
10
Now that is plain old nonsense. No one is being sacrificed for the old and frail. The young get this disease and also die of it and it’s to everyone’s benefit to stop it.
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A prudent statement Roy, particularly when many epidemiologists warn that it is the second wave that is most devastating; and there is no guarantee just which age group will suffer most from it. The second wave will not be exactly the same as the first.
20
The cases you mention are individual in origin. You cannot catch them from someone else, you have to make a choice. CV19 can strike you without any action on your part. The implication I see is frightening.
What do you suggest we do. I’m all ears. Tell me your plan.
121
Roy, I think Mal has empathy, and it is he that is asking questions.
My reply in effect was that forming a suicide pact is not a good idea.
20
I have total emphathy for individuals and families affected
However there has to be a middle ground to tread carefully between rampant out of control epidemic that overwhelms the health services and society at the start and keeping people in lock down for such an extended time that society ceases to function and total society collapses and anarchy rules
We have reached the stage now we are controlling the spread
I’m sure the government has their other experts who can advise them to move into the next phase. However we don’t have precedence of how to deal with this going forward.
They are learning as they go forward
I’m just pointing out that we are caught in middle of 2 unacceptable outcomes,
but it’s here now and we have to get through this with least collateral damage to our overall society.
The last thing Australia needs is anarchy and mob rule
That would really be a horrific outcome
112
I don’t think it’s suicide pact, isolation from one another is very effective. The virus is passed from an infected person to someone not infected by contact or by the micro droplets we spew out in a cough. The more space between potential victims the better.
72
Roy, in my non expert case, i agree with the theory of protecting the vulnerable…as for those of us who are unlikely to even sneeze, there is no need for a lockdown other than strictly adhering to not infecting the vulnerable….children can go to school too. …..sorry if anyone thinks i lack empathy.
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It’s not about empathy. It’s about knowing who I can help and who I cannot. And I cannot help anyone who suffers from their own bad choice. I lack the means to do that. But possibly I can stop the spread of this virus if I’m willing to make a hard choice. The hard choice is between isolation until the virus is beaten and causing hardship to others; or go about some form of business as usual and risk having CV19 run wild as it pleases.
A leader has to swallow choices that go down hard sometimes. Sometimes they sicken you nearly to your limit. But if the buck stops with you then you better make the right trade-off and go with it.
Eisenhower became my WWII hero out of all the heroes from that war when I learned that after giving the go-ahead for the Normandy invasion he went to his office and wrote his letter of resignation, sealed it in an envelope and put it in his desk ready to send to the president. The weight of knowing the invasion could fail and his invasion force decimated is something I hope never to feel. But if I ever face such a choice I hope to make the right call.
Isolation is working. It’s time for leadership, not second guessing.
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Red thumb by mistake Roy
Should be a green !
32
My guess is you don’t mind
So long as it’s mostly blacks being made critically ill & killed by this virus.
010
Time to stop guessing like that Bill.
41
Check out : https://jefftbowles.com/vitamin-d3-deficiency-is-killing-blacks-with-covid-19-at-5x-the-rate-of-whites-with-covid-19/
00
that could be their vitamin D 3 reserves are right at exhaustion. Unfortunately, nobody is running that measurement. It could be useful to determine causation.
00
Mal, you’re asking the wrong question.
You need to ask two questions:
1. How many deaths am I prepared to accept in my endeavour to avoid having a seriously adverse economic affect?
2. How many deaths can the economy absorb before it starts to implode due to loss of productivity, know-how and labour shortages?
81
In California the projected number of deaths of people who also have Coronavirus is less than a third of the annual drug-related deaths, less than murders and less than gun-related deaths. The cost to the Californian economy of their lock-down so far is more than $1 Trillion! Interesting statistics here: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/08/flattening-the-curve/
In the UK a figure quoted today says that in March 2020 the excess winter deaths including those with Covid-19 were much lower than the average over the last 5 years for March .
Panic and knee-jerk reactions seem to be the new political default mode in thrall to unproven ‘science’ and ‘modelling’ based on insufficent data and knowledge.
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Good perspective. We need to take a step back and check everything.
This is a disaster on top of a medical problem.
Kurve Krusher
61
Speculation at this stage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5wn1qs_bBk
“Montana physician Dr. Annie Bukacek discusses how COVID 19 death certificates are being manipulated”
81
Speculation from an extremist skeptic ?
07
Bill when it comes to this virus I have never seen so many CoNsPiRaCy theories or so many experts with completely opposing theories .
As for fudging of death certificates I personally believe that some countries where democracy doesn’t exist they have been fudged downwards , as for a hospital fudging cause of death to gain the system that’s believable but until I see a charge sheet or court appearance it’s pure speculation.
81
Yes Rob !
There is an active
‘Save Our Virus’ clique of scientists
Trying hard to preserve this virus
For future study.
And anything will do as evidence to
Boost the cause.
31
oh the irony.
00
There are revision edits of US daily totals on worldometer, BIG changes. Don’t know what to make of it yet.
The UK on the other hand reports daily numbers and seems to not revise them ever.
60
WXcycles
They are added into the current daily totals but not attributed to previous weeks.
For example deaths are not always reported promptly for a variety of reasons, might not be registered immediately, might not have been attributed to a cause of death at the time, etc
In the last week there were some 750 deaths from earlier weeks which have now been added to the last few days totals and have substantially swollen them so they didn’t happen today or yesterday but up to 2 weeks ago.
so the overall number of deaths as of today may be known, but there will also be a grey area as past deaths are examined with a resultant lag in exact numbers.
Can you remind me of your forecast made on April 2nd for the number of UK deaths in a single day as of 10th April?
30
WX. Timezones get worldometer. My understanding is they update as the info comes in then freeze it at midnight GMT.
So they’ve added a “yesterday” tab which is useful because it freezes that data while the today tab grows. I have copied data from the Wayback machine at time but been careful to do it at 11:50pm type times as listed in the wayback machine. That seems to make more sense, but sometimes there is noise in the data due to midnight GMT not being so useful for other nations to report by.
81
CDC and bodgy death figures?
https://canadafreepress.com/article/the-cdc-confesses-to-lying-about-covid-19-death-numbers?
“CDC openly admits that it is fudging the COVID-19 death figures
“This revelation comes a few days after I wrote here at American Thinker that New York City was lying about COVID-19 deaths. The normal rules about reporting deaths have been violated by that city in the rush to inflate the body count, presumably to steer more taxpayer money to the Big Apple.
“That the CDC isn’t telling the truth to Americans is no conspiracy theory: it’s right out there in the open for everyone to see. The CDC openly admits that it is fudging the COVID-19 death figures.
“We know this because, among other truth-tellers, a plainspoken small-town physician from Kalispell, Montana, has pulled back the curtain.
“Dr. Annie Bukacek, MD, explained in a presentation how death certificates are made. (See “Montana physician Dr. Annie Bukacek discusses how COVID-19 death certificates are being manipulated,” YouTube, April 6)
Bukacek refers to a March 24 CDC memo from Steven Schwartz, director of the Division of Vital Statistics for the National Center for Health Statistics, titled “COVID-19 Alert No. 2.”
“The assumption of COVID-19 death,” she says, “can be made even without testing. Based on assumption alone the death can be reported to the public as another COVID-19 casualty.”
“There is a question-and-answer section on the memo.
“How many people have actually died from COVID-19 is anyone’s guess
The answer is:
“COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.” [Boldfacing in original]
“”You could see how these statistics have been made to look really scary when it is so easy to add false numbers to the official database,” Bukacek says. “Those false numbers are sanctioned by the CDC.”
“”The real number of COVID-19 deaths are not what most people are told and what they then think,” she says.
““How many people have actually died from COVID-19 is anyone’s guess … but based on how death certificates are being filled out, you can be certain the number is substantially lower than what we are being told
51
I had a look at the referred presentation and it says a lot about how things happen in the US. The only country in the world that thinks it’s a good idea to inflate figures in the US. In places like China, Russia , Iran they seem determined to underplay the actual figures, but in US the CDC which I assume is part of the anti Trump swamp thinks that such a misleading higher number would be of benefit. Justify more funds for themselves and put Trunps re-election at risk at the same time.
40
You mean this.
Believe the Doctors
https://youtu.be/_ecceh_AYGs
00
https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html
Not sure Asians meet the obesity statistics (then again some parts of asia have the genes to not seem fat but still have severe metabolic syndrome) but other groups do meet this.
Also where the poor live, minorities in the US might tend to move to the larger cities such as New York and make up the most of the obese people on those areas.
Education attainment has also been an association with improved outcomes, but it might be as simple as less drinking, cigarettes etc rather than diet since most of dietary advice given (endorsed by government bodies etc) is pretty much false.
62
Some one gave you a Green thumb. Thumber please explain?
Shortie; You seem to be focusing on possible “victim” groups; Asians, Obese, Poor, Poor and Obese and living in NYC, Lower educational attainment, Smokers, Drinkers (alcohol abusers).
Anyone else to Blame?
33
Did you want to be added as a group perhaps?
Rather than saying victims I’m talking about ‘association’. The numbers fall where they do. Poorer people are more likely to be less educated, have a more processed food diet and other factors. Also on the Asian part that was more to Roger in the earlier comment where according to statistics obesity is less likely to be a factor.
41
Actually you need to focus on blood types yeah sure life style factors play a role but its the viruses ability to destroy red blood cells that kills you
31
Russians….
01
here are the stats for the UK
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
unfortunately many younger people die unexpectedly from sudden death syndrome whilst sleeping, through to drug abuse, from suicide to obesity and cold and malnutrition. The numbers dying unexpectedly are obviously shocking but unfortunately is not unusual
Whether covid 19 was directly responsible we shall see, but generally healthy young people do not die of this disease but of other factors, mostly, but not always ‘avoidable’. In the UK of some 600,000 deaths annually some 140,000 fall into this category of which young people are a small but significant minority
81
In the last week of March this year UK lost 11141 soles. In the same week last year there was 9867 deaths. This year up 11% on last year. And that is before the CV19 deaths ramped up this week and will continue to rise into next week with forecast peak of 1674 on 17 April.
The daily death toll of all causes in UK in April 2019 was 1,470. Next week the daily death toll from CV19 alone will average 1,620. So that single cause will take out more people than all other causes last year.
Fortunately the lock down will reduce deaths from other causes as well as CV19. So the total daily death toll is expected to be around 2500 or double the usual daily toll. You can check the data at the end of April to confirm this forecast.
Now this is the toll with lockdown in place; albeit a bit late. Imagine what it would be like if there was no lockdown. POMS would be literally dying in the streets – like Equador.
Let to run its course with no controls, CV19 would take out about 3% of UK population – about 2M people this year plus a slight reduction in death from other causes. That sort of toll would threaten essential services and food supply. It would be a true disaster rather than an enforced holiday for non-essential workers.
102
I suppose it is an irony or perhaps a matter for the philosophical, but there will be many thousands of people walking round the streets of the UK in 2020 that, if it had not been for CV, would have died from flu (social distancing since January has reduced this) from violence, from car accidents, from sports injuries, from drug abuse and numerous other causes. on the other hand expect a spike up in domestic violence
The thing is of course that they will never know that they have been spared whilst others have died.
51
Que sera, sera !
What will bebe, will be !
The future’s not ours to see
Que sera, sera !
00
Interesting observation Tony. But so true.
00
I’m 81 years old and never have I seen anything like the CV19 virus. It traveled all over the world in a relatively short time and it looks like it has overwhelmed the entire medical profession.
The efforts to help victims in some cases have not been thought out. To bring in a navy hospital ship and then have no system for getting patients aboard shows just how hard it it to coordinate the required effort to deal with the problem.
We can do better folks and we better get to it.
151
Totally agree Roy, my Father is 80 and with my Mother they lived through Whooping Cough to Polio epidemics in Australia and saw first hand the cruel effects of disease, my wife as a small child recalls a younger cousin dying overnight in the same house from Whooping Cough while they were all infected, when years later they encountered the anti-vaxxers they couldn’t believe how short peoples memories were.
Lets get this done and deal with the “origin” later.
101
I also live through the polio and whooping cough epidemics, not to overlook diptheria. I missed almost my entire second year of school because of whooping cough. Will never forget the fits of coughing followed by the whooping, fighting to breathe, almost always ending up with a fit of vomiting. My older siblings still recall having to watch me go through all of it.
Mention anti-vaxers, I get angry.
31
To Roy Hogue and other olds from a younger “old” (71). Look after yourself first. Any sign of this thing, demand hydroxychloroquine. (It’s not hard to make and most pharmaceutical companies are stepping up production.) It needs to be taken early, not given as a last resort. If you had the earlier version when in military service, or as a resident in a country where malaria is endemic, then don’t be fobbed off with “it has side effects”. Next, get a nebuliser, load it with H2O2 eg hydrogen peroxide, 3%. There are instructions on the web. If you can’t find a nebuliser (because they are all sold out) buy a spray for nasal congestion eg Sudafed or equivalent, tip out the contents, sterilise it, put H2O2 in that, spray it into your mouth while breathing in. It will foam in the mouth, once a standard treatment for gingivitis.
Roy you have never seen anything like the CV19 virus because it is a recent development: bat corona virus, modified with an HIV gene sequence to make it contractable by humans. That did not happen by some natural process. The person responsible was probably “bat lady” Shi Zhengli. She has published studies on the subject that were already raising eyebrows around the world. She was based at the allegedly P4 standard laboratory just down the road from Wuhan wet market. She claims it could not have escaped, but this thing has been intentionally weaponised, and it did escape.
100
There are just a few patients on that ship not because patients cannot get on but because the hospital system in NY is coping, not over-loaded, despite the panic Trump bashing of the mayor.
20
I believe they could of docked a garbage skip and fit the same amount of sick people.
01
A quick calculation from available figures (2017) shows that more than half a million people in their 30s died in the USA in a single year, and presumably every year. Every premature death is regrettable, but a few hundred is nowhere near a threshold of serious concern, or justification for the destruction of the economy, 16 million jobs in the USA and counting – there were already 47,000 suicides in 2017, you only need to provoke 2% more to take more than 800 lives, add in lives cut short by the induced poverty etc………..
96
Again, what would you do? Would you put people in the situation most likely to spread the disease?
82
The western world has lost the ability to make tough calls. Sometimes there are no ‘good’ calls just less bad ones. The acceptable casualty for D day was 20,000 – actual 10,000 including 2,500 dead.
Thank God they had the guts to go ahead, the first wave KNEW they’d take 90% casualties.
41
From Roy “what would you do” I posted what I am doing, but it is currently in moderation
00
Deaths in New York City Are More Than Double the Usual Total
By Josh Katz and Margot Sanger-KatzApril 10, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html
Over the 31 days ending April 4, more than twice the typical number of New Yorkers died.
That total for the city includes deaths directly linked to the novel coronavirus as well as those from other causes, like heart attacks and cancer. Even this is only a partial count; we expect this number to rise as more deaths are counted.
These numbers contradict the notion that many people who are dying from the new virus would have died shortly anyway. And they suggest that the current coronavirus death figures understate the real toll of the virus, either because of undercounting of coronavirus deaths, increases in deaths that are normally preventable, or both.
“…A staggering number of people are dying at home with presumed cases of coronavirus, and it does not appear that the state has a clear mechanism for factoring those victims into official death tallies.
In the last three days, 766 people were found dead in their homes, bringing the total for the first eight days of April to 1,891, according to the city’s medical examiner’s office. It’s likely that many have not been counted in the current tally.
Paramedics are not performing coronavirus tests on those they pronounce dead…”
The official statistics paint a partial picture and may understate the death toll.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html
00
USA traffic deaths around 700/week
32
So what’s a few more US citizens dying ?
Sarc/
PS Car deaths have dropped enormously these recent weeks
Go figure !
41
MSM last night. QLD Traffic accidents death toll at 35, for the same period last year 34. Down no!
This could also be attributed to the Whuflu (I do this as it is so not PC and avoids the Mod) From the news.
A large Patch of Whuflu had been sited on the Bruce Highway, though identified authorities failed to safely barricade off the area and install lollipop men, a Bus full of Chinese Tourists only recently arrived in the country plunged into this outbreak at full speed. There where no survivors. The Bus received minor damage and is expected to make a full recovery and return to service.
01
If those deaths increased dramatically would you just say “C’est la vie?”, how much would warrant attention 2,3,4 or 5 times?
12
Caring? Que sera, sera.
So do nothing.
3 weeks, 1000 infected.
6 weeks, 1,000,000 infected
9 weeks, 330,000,000 infected.
20% in hospital, 66 million patients
10% in intensive care, say 33 million respirators needed.
But as the health system cannot help, lets say there is no intensive care, so that’s 30 million people dead in three months or if you like, 3,000,000 a week. Roughly. Nothing to worry about. And no effect on the economy.
94
And then it mutates and the whole thing starts again.
82
Pretty impressive math TdeF
41
Prove him wrong.
22
Yes the economic alarmists want to judge the impact of the disease by what has transpired with controls in place, not what the impact would have been without those controls. I am not disputing the economic impact of the controls, but don’t forget what the economic may have been without those controls and much greater impact on society from disease.
10
If we don’t want lockdowns to last for ever and to be repeated every few months, herd immunity is the only solution. Of course Bill Gates who has bought up the WHO and the CDC would much rather tag you electronically – for you own safety of course.
83
For the tenth time. NO.
That is the 1918 flu plan.
Now we have CRISPR, stem cells, anti-virals, RNAi, monoclonal antibodies.
86
And, HCQ with Zn.
But I’m starting to sound like a broken record – if anybody here remembers how such a thing sounded.
90
Let the drug companies that make it put it up for auction online you reckon Sam? Or do you still prefer the prescription only model if the pharmacy can get hold of any?
30
Maybe not what you meant, but yes.
Sell it to whoever wants to buy it, it has risks like many medications. Initial high prices will cause increased production – it is cheap to make, patents have expired long ago. It has been extensively studied. There will be some deaths from unsupervised and inappropriate use, there will be many more recoveries as well as early stage stoppages,
hard to pick up in stats.
20
I prefer the prescription model.
Why? Because it comes with a second opinion – that of your trained medical doctor – and some guarantee (from the trained pharmacist) that what you’re purchasing is the “real McCoy”” pharmaceutical.
00
Alfred 175 recovered covid-19 patients were tested for antibodies. One third had almost undetectable levels of antibodies. A few, no specific number given had no detectable antibodies. WE have no idea what level the other two thirds would show if tested again in three months time. We don’t know that herd immunity is even achievable.
20
On something Chad keeps banging on about, more testing. His thesis is that you have to test everyone to be sure, that it can hide and be undetected.
The question is how coronavirus can hide in society for more than two weeks without being seen?
I believe there is no possibility of an infection outside the 0.03% of the population infected if it does not surface within three weeks. Or the person gets better without infecting anyone else. Or without lockdown, other people are infected quickly and they surface at outpatients in the local hospital, by ambulance.
80% of infections are asymptomatic, but 20% of all infections require hospitalization and half of those require intensive care. At the end of three weeks of a person a day infected, cumulative would be 1,000 people, 200 destined for hospitalization and 100 for intensive care.
Someone would notice.
So we need to use testing to keep a watch on everyone who comes into contact with infected people and hope they stay in lockdown.
If for example there has not been a single case in Wangaratta in three weeks, there is no Wuhan virus in Wangaratta. Without testing. It’s as simple as that.
61
Some Good News today in the Herald Sun newspaper.
The Victorian health Department has expanded their staff to 1000 people to trace coronavirus infections.m Already they have detected 3 outbreaks associated with one “superspreader” The superspreader was working in a hospitality venue and had very mild symptoms.
The Victorian Health Department seems to be reacting properly now.
80
That is great news. A superspreader is someone who infects a lot more people and someone too close in hospitality could do that. I would love to know what their job was, as the job may be a key profession to warn. Someone handling crockery or cutlery for example. Or directly touching food. Gloves are essential.
The person which worries me is the yet to be seen Typhoid Mary type who sheds RNA but is neither sick nor recovered. You can only track such a person by the devastation they leave, but lockdown would make it at least geographically limited.
And partial geographic limitations would be how we can reopen. Town by town, suburb by suburb with as little travelling as possible. Local villages. Communities.
As has been seen in the US, the vast proportion of people are really happy to help. It’s that small proportion of sociopaths who worry everyone.
70
I think they should have airtight isolation measures around the 60+ aged sector of the population, until this thing burns itself out.
Indefinite lockdown for the whole population is unworkable…..
51
I never thought it would be indefinite. There is no need for that at all. Talk of six months or a year for an island like Australia is odd.
This virus vanishes if it cannot get new victims. Weeks. That is why isolation works so fast, as fast as the original growth. The reason it seems not to work at first is that visible infection lags real infection by 7-14 days. New Yorks is just seeing that as all numbers are dropping.
Then when the virus is gone, it is gone. It cannot hide. No one is at risk unless someone brings it to Australia. Again.
And as Jo is pointing out, 800 people under 50 have died. And even those who recover can have permanent damage. It’s not just about those over 60, 90% of whom survive. A lot more over 60,70,80 have preexisting problems. Otherwise everyone can get it. Many younger people have weaknesses too.
30
Fox News had the Health expert from the Reagan years on.
His take on this disease and restrictions, in the face of no vaccine
nor therapeutic agents, was gruesome. 18-24 months for the USA.
While Australia, for some unbelievable luck (?), as we get cruise ship after cruise
ship passengers from ‘infected’ liners, and had received plane loads of similar
passengers early on, we have escaped relatively unscathed so far.Singapore and
South Korea may have handled things better initially, but for all their smarts and
decent technologies, they are showing opening up the economy is totally fraught.
So far, no one except reputedly, China, has been able to do it. Nobody can trust
China anymore. Is it preselecting those people it sends around the world as though it is free of the virus? Are they all selected on positive testing for antibodies, or from
areas the disease is known not to have hit? Who knows? Have they had antibodies
injected?
China’s problem of being too smart by half and denying the disease in the
early stages defines its duplicity. Its aggression is already a proven in the South China Sea. Its comeuppance is coming after this disease is defeated. There will be a withdrawal, by decree if necessary, of Western businesses that rely on China for essential materials and services. China is going to get what it deserves and that will
destabilize its nation. That is what Xi fears.
For the Australian government and Health Department the future is already made more
difficult than the past by commentators demanding it open the economy. Those demanding the economy open en masse seem to have no appreciation of the difficulty of that exercise. imo, the government, under huge media pressure, will try to open up against
epidemiological advice, too early. The pressure is on everywhere to do just that.
I want it as much as the next person because I have 4 middle aged offspring hit by the
economy. It will be the biggest wrong call we have yet made.
20
SCoMo seems to have the balls to ignore the idiotic commentators.
Which is a good reason for making sure that ScoMo knows that there are a lot of people not in a hurry to open up again
And have this COVID disease run rampant again in Oz.
If he does that millions will have in the gun
With Labor gleefully baying for blood.
00
SCoMo seems to have the balls to ignore the idiotic commentators.
Which is a good reason for making sure that ScoMo knows that there are a lot of people not in a hurry to open up again
And have this COVID disease run rampant again in Oz.
If he does that millions will have him in the gun
With Labor gleefully baying for blood.
00
Update Tdef , one new case just confirmed by Northeast Health and one other but unsure of when the ” other” was diagnosed .
Was on their Facebook page about 5 minutes ago .
30
A new case. Not a hundred. That’s what isolation does.
51
So true and I’m glad we are a bit further out from Wangaratta in a very small community rather than in a big city or capital .
30
Dr Campbell in the UK also bangs on about testing TdeF
And he has some interesting news from German research
Where the researchers tested a 1000 people for both antibody and the virus.
15% of the sample study had been infected by the virus.
Worth watching ! ( as always )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EUZEtJHQhE
51
These are places which have already been hot spots. Many more people had been infected than they thought, roughly double.
It means the % of people without symptoms may be 90%, not 80%. So 100 people had the virus and 10 died, CFR of 10%. (Case Fatality Rate).
However testing now shows that 1000 people had the virus, 900 of whom were unknown. That fits roughly with a high unsymptomatic ratio. This is the second way Wuhan virus can enter communities without raising alarms until it is too late. The first is that even those who end up seriously ill are unsymptomatic for a week. How often do you hear, “I’m feeling fine”. And a week later they are in intensive care. Boris Johnson for example.
My concern with such earnest stories is that they indirectly push herd immunity by confusing people, making them think the virus is far safer than it is.
Yes, America would lose half as many people as they expected, say only 15 million instead of 30 million but it makes people think that allowing mass infection and getting herd immunity of 60-70% infected is a good idea. No one thinks it would be them to go. Especially people under 50. It would be a total disaster. Half the people in hospital are under 44.
41
I guess what I mean is that the good news is that with post hoc forensic analysis, this virus is twice as infectious as they thought, which means it is in a limited sample, half as deadly. In an open population the number of people who died would be the same, until you ran out of people. That was because until you test a whole population, you do not really know how many people were exposed. By measuring antibodies, you can put an accurate figure on it.
21
The HAMMER is staring to work in NYC, now that they have begun to follow Jo’s advice!
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/10/gov-cuomo-new-york-saw-negative-net-change-in-icu-admissions-for-first-time-since-coronavirus-outbreak/
Note the last sentence: “The trajectory is the trajectory we create by our actions.”
Mayor Cuomo gets it now. I am not so sure about Fredo.
61
Great news. It’s not as if they have any choice, but some people just cannot believe it. The likely toll on the first pass would be a million people dead in New York if they did not. Central Park is not that big.
This all happened in London with the Black Death. The church grave yards are built on thousands of bodies heaped into pits. Monty Python in Jabberwocky painted the picture with the Bring Out your Dead scene. The Dark Ages were terrible. And plagues stopped cities from growing. The population of England remained static, even dropping.
We no longer accept that destiny. Man made or not, this virus can be eliminated from our society. It will take weeks, not years. And it has to be absolute.
Testing will stop it coming in. And rapid response.
It escaped in November in Wuhan. If anyone had been told, a hundred thousand people would not be dead today. And at worst a million. WHO could have stopped this, just by telling us what had happened, but they protected their Chinese puppet masters.
111
Actually central park is 36 million ft2. It is big enough.
50
Provided you use mass graves.
00
Like these..
10
Looks like one escaped.
we have now entered Phase Zombie Apocalypse.
We’re doomed I tell ya
01
Yep. That’s the go.
Like the plague pits of old.
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryMagazine/DestinationsUK/LondonPlaguePits/
11
Steve Bannon: Blood is on the hands of the Chinese Communist Party
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjlj7KkzyqU
161
And its WHO running dog.
82
I know 800 sounds like a big number… but when you agree that 2/3 were those that with underlying conditions you are talking about 250 unexplained. That’s 5 per state over a months period.
Just for comparison, in the same period some 6000 young Americans died due to Opioid abuse…. average age about 21.
And in a typical month in the US, some 250,000 Americans normally die with 40% going due to cancers and CVD.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t reflect in these numbers, but please keep some perspective on this.
74
‘I felt my standpoint shaken
In the universal crisis
but with one step backward taken…’
http://famouspoetsandpoems.com/poets/robert_frost/poems/617
21
Perhaps read #9.3. A big number? Unchecked you are talking about 3 million deaths a week. That’s 40x worse. And these are all avoidable deaths.
33
That’s their choice. Actions have consequences.
Who amongst the Covid-19 dead made the choice to die?
53
What ‘perspective‘ might this be?
Do cancer totals compound at 1.12 times per day, every day, within the general population, like COVID-19 was doing in late March?
Do death totals from opioid overdoses multiply at 1.36 times per day, compounding, like COVID-19 deaths were in late March?
You’re going to compare those illnesses with an extremely contagious disease which humans have no existing immunity protection for, and which even at today’s much lower case multiplication factor of 1.06, would increase to 5.4 million cases globally by April 30th. The 1.06 growth factor has been stable or beginning to creep higher for 7 days now.
5.4 million total cases in 19 days time with a significant portion of 1 million people will dying from it.
Today the amount of dead globally is 7.24%. This is for all cases except China (excluded because they are lying). And 7.24% of 5.4 million is 394,000 dead people.
Except this 7.24% died globally keeps rising every day. So were facing ~0.5 million dead by the end of April, at today’s stable rate of growth. And if that 1.06 continued through May there would be 33.1 million cases on the last day of May which would equate to at lest 2.25 million dead – minimum!
But if anything like that developed we could expect to see the ~14.5% died percent, which we see in Algeria today, which would produce close to 5 million dead in May, and as much as 780,000 dead in April.
_
It’s you need to “keep some perspective“, Imran.
84
I’m glad you can all do the maths that allows you to come to BIG numbers if you keep doing exponential growth calculations. But that’s not very informative. Those numbers reflect scenarios where you assume mortality rates that are extremely high.
The recent study in Germany showed that 3x the expected number of infections … which results in population wide mortality of 0.2%.
Yes there will be a lot of deaths but not significantly different from a bad flu season. Or a heatwave ….remember 2003, when 70,000 pensioners died in Europe from 2 weeks of very hot weather.
74
Yes, the virus in a forensic analysis infected three times as many people as they thought.
This is very misleading. It means the virus is actually three times more dangerous but a third as lethal. The same number of people die however and the infection grows exponentially but three times faster than they thought. If without isolation you go to 100% exposure in the 83 million people in Germany, they are all infected the times as fast and only 1/3 of 10% of 83 million die. A mere 3 million people. And as many again perhaps with lifelong damage. Plus given the discovered infectivity, this happens in 1/3 of the time.
However as the health system would not exist, expect the fatality rate to be much higher. So at least double it again to six million people within say 2-3 months. Now tell me that is business as usual.
And that’s only Germany. It would spill over into the whole of Europe. Goodbye 30 million people. And then into Eastern Europe and Russia without ultra hard borders.
31
Well I’m glad your maths is sound … you can work out that 3x the infections must equal 1/3 mortality to get same number of deaths. Well done.
But that’s where your powers of analysis then desert you, because you spectacularly miss the point that a situation of much higher ‘infectiousness’ will lead to a different approach to managing the problem. If we do the Sweden vs. Australia comparison, who do you then think has the better solution. The same percentage of people will die (because this virus is an insidious very infectious little bastard) …. but in Australia it will just take a lot longer, during which time you will all be locked up.
53
‘Will just take longer in Australia”
Future tense mate !
You’ve already confessed that you can’t do the maths.
So what crystal ball are you looking into ?
Meanwhile here in Oz we are destroying this bloody virus.
Full stop !
00
Yep!
Lives, businesses, Sanity, futures:
All at a Full Stop!
Well done Straya, Mate, Buddy.
Kurve Krusha
02
If you think you can ‘destroy this bloody virus’, you are living in cloud cuckoo land. Its global… which means it is everywhere…. and Australia will not be able to protect itself without closing its borders to the point of national isolation. That will not happen. Not politically, not socially, not economically. Even just for a year or 2 or 3 … until a vaccine is developed (assuming it is developed). You can try … but it wont work.
I am reminded of that wonderful clip at the end of Finding Nemo … the fish all escape and then find themselves bobbing around in the sea … all in plastic bags … with that immortal final line “Now what ?”. That is Australia now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDTxr7Mrkuc
00
Quantitatives as promulgated by WXcycles are fairly meaningless without qualitative balance. Alas, some people suffer quite badly from compound ignorance.
26
Well said.
20
Compound?
More like Exponential!
KK the Kurve Krusha.
00
And here is a link to that German study ..
https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/
The key is antibody tests …. which in Australia will show that hardly anyone has had it yet ….. well done.
32
Oh Dear not up to your usual standard, as far as I can ascertain there has not been one proper autopsy. look up Professor Walter Ricciardi statements on the Italian situation he estimates only 12% of the deaths were of rather than with.
63
[Snip duplicate . ]
12
Pure semantical quibbling. They would not have died if they had not been infected. The cause of death may have been organ failure but the reason they died was the corona virus.
65
Its like the guy in the USA who died of natural causes a while ago he was tazered 50 times by the police so naturally he died.
30
Sad, but intriguing to see a percentage of younger people without co-morbidities dying. Especially given the cardiopulmonary nexis.
The effects of Hypoxia are well known amongst those who live at high elevation (>5000ft Above Mean Sea Level). The statistical distribution of adaptability to high elevation environments sounds very similar to Covid-19. It is very common for people across all age groups with no co-morbidities to suffer from hypoxia. There is no known explanation for this phenomenon. It is also common for those with known commonly occurring co-morbidities to also be affected by hypoxia.
Hypoxia symptoms most commonly include shortness of breath, headache, dry cough, elevated heart rate and breathing, nausea, fatigue and hypertension. Severe symptoms include heart attack and alveolar lung inflammation. This raises the question as to whether Covid-19 described symptoms are actually symptoms of hypoxia rather than inimitably Covid-19. if this is the case, the question arises as to the body’s ability to adapt to hypoxia rapidly and whether Covid-19 is interfering with this process.
The body responds to hypoxia by essentially instructing the pancreas to manufacture red blood cells. Thereby enabling the body to circulate more oxygen. This process mostly occurs within a period of 24-72 hours. Though adaption progresses for several weeks to months thereafter. Nitric Oxide (“NO”) production is very important in the homeostatic adaptation process . See ref “1” below.
Research has been done on NO’s ability to inhibit SARS virus reproduction. See ref “2” below. The NO does appear to inhibit the viruses reproduction but the question as to whether the virus affects the body’s production of NO is not answered.
NO treatment is being trialled in the US. See ref “3”, “4” and “5” below. Though it appears it may be too late in the disease progression as has been the case with Chloroquine, the reasons for providing the NO seem right.
An even more interesting question arises around the issue of NO and Chloroquine. Chloroquine appears to stimulate NO production in some cells. See ref “6” and “7” below. This raises the question as to how Chloroquine is really functioning to defeat the virus? Is Chloroquine stimulating cellular level NO production in the body to counteract Covid-19 disruption of NO production that causes susceptibility (rather than adaptability) to acute hypoxia?
Article ref “8” begins to discuss the possibility viruses may disrupt NO production in the body.
It is theoretically possible Covid-19 is causing mild lung inflammation that leads to a hypoxemic response by the body. The hypoxemic response is then exacerbated by the viruses ability to curtail Nitric Oxide production. Thereby leading to severe lung inflammation that ultimately causes asphyxiation and heart attack.
(1) https://academic.oup.com/abbs/article/50/7/621/5026283
(2) https://jvi.asm.org/content/79/3/1966
(3) https://www.brproud.com/news/how-nitric-oxide-can-help-coronavirus-patients-as-clinical-trial-gets-underway-at-lsuhs/
(4) https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/08/remarkable-nitric-oxide-being-tested-as-coronavirus-drug/
(5) https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04290871
(6) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15683746
(7) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC508920/
(8) https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2014.00428/full
50
Very thorough, Sunni. And, an interesting question.
It’s now fairly clearly established that Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) acts as a ionophore to facilitate the transport of Zn through the cell wall and inhibit the replication of the corona virus.
The following YouTube is now “old hat”, but I’ve not seen any refutation of the analysis. Have you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M&feature=emb_title
In addition, there are now many, many medical examples of HCQ’s application in conjunction with Zn, that seem to have provided efficacious outcomes.
30
Sceptical Sam, very interesting indeed. Especially given the fact the original research validating Chloroquine out of Marseilles didn’t use Zinc at all.
Here’s a reference – https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/trumps-miracle-drug-french-study-1000-patients-including-seniors-see-98-success-rate-hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin-regimen/
The Zinc is beneficial but it seems the Chloroquine + Azithromycin also works. Dr Jelenko was the first doctor i’ve seen combine all three, and prophylactically. His results speak for themselves but are not randomised double blind.
I’m starting to think the virus somehow switches off or handicaps Nitric Oxide production at a cellular level for some people but not others. I think there are a few scientists out there who must be thinking about this.
Nitric Oxide production at a cellular level also ties into diabetes and other known co-morbidities for this illness. I haven’t had time to fully investigate.
10
See my latest post on what may be causing that cytokine trigger. Really interesting new theory.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/urgent-new-medical-theory-on-coronavirus-hold-the-ventilators-stop-blood-clots-instead/
The NO would be downregulated due to angiotensin being overactivated by the virus binding to ACE2 would it not?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15252776
30
There seems to be a critically balanced interplay at work between Angiotensin and Nitric Oxide. Given the binding to the ACE-2 receptor is unique to SARS COV-1 and 2 (with very slight differences) the scope of this reaction seems limited to these two COV variants. As the ACE-2 receptor exists throughout the body, i’m wondering if the virus is “swamping” the body with angiotensin overactivation, thereby causing an imbalance leading to critical downregulation of Nitric Oxide sufficient for the relevant organs to generate/develop critical inflammation. Notably the lungs.
Following the above logic would explain why ibuprofen exacerbates the disease when it increases ACE-2 receptors.
The selective procession to Cytokine storms from a potentially Nitric Oxide deficient state will no doubt be the next big question to be answered.
10
Yes.
There is some evidence of HCQ working without zinc,
or maybe added zinc is not worth mentioning,
or that there is often enough in the body, ( tho’ not in in-vitro?)
Could this ionophore action be itself damaging to the virus?
10
Lucky, we’re thinking the same way on Zinc. We don’t know what’s going through the gateway Chloroquine opens.
Zinc is often deficient particularly in older people and males. There are known immunological effects from Zinc deficiency.
Perhaps for some there is enough Zinc in the body but the stats are showing much higher older age demographic and male mortality rates from this virus.
40
The Chinese telecoms have reduced mobile phone accounts by 21 Million in 3 months, according to the Epoch Times – a Chinese publication. The journalist Nicole Hao tried to analyse why there was such a huge reduction, and the best she could guess was that maybe some of that was due to the human carnage. She also said that Mobile phone usage was very important in China, so some of the reduction may be due to loss of jobs; its a great question.
Epoch times want to call it the ‘CCP Virus’ and that is very hard to disagree with. The Epoch times is very good if you want to find out what is going on in China and it’s free.
40
My thought was that mosy of these people may have been less than polite about President Xi and/or the Communist Party. The latter are paranoid about dissent.
30
1st documentary movie on the origin of CCP virus, Tracking Down the Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus (55 mins)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bXWGxhd7ic
Didn’t like the subtle creepy-music or the CIA intel guy rah-rah at the end, the facts were enough, but the story and facts presented in this doco were thoroughly damning. Epoch Times is certainly a slick anti-China organisation, you can see they had a lot of background support to tell that story. I must stay it sure looks like a refined but developmental bioweapon got out of their P4 lab, and the way it was reacted to and opportunistically taken advantage of sure looks like they knew exactly what it was, and what it would do to the rest of the world, now that it’s out.
50
Its BL4 as in biological level 4 thats where they keep ebola, anthrax and small pox under lock and key, and yes i had seen that vid the peer reviewed and published studies are quite damning. I thought putting the S protein on the front end of a bat virus to eliminate the need for an intermediate host was a nice touch.
40
https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-19_Disease_ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173
Who from the lift the lockdown brigade is prepared to roll the dice and get infected?
40
This implies that taking iron tablets to boost ferritin ( stored Iron ) levels in the blood would be useful.
11
No because it wont stop the red blod cell being destroyed byt this is why the malaria drugs work
50
New infections down again today. Still under 100 at 86 new cases reported, Australian wide. Maybe tomorrow we go to 50? For the country.
51
Australian Recoveries last two days:
April 9th 174
April 10th 154
Total Active 2,982
Total Recovered 3,265
20
WXcycles, what about those who never officially recovered, not because they died, but because they were never recorded as active to begin with? You really ought to be recording your statistical assumptions in your posts, don’t you think?
22
Would you confound all action with unknown unknowns ?
That seems to be your purpose !
10
No, I don’t.
00
And these photos from Delhi, Connaught place. The roads in India are usually a river of people. Today.
31
And another. Unbelievable.
11
And this one of the Place De La Concorde with not a single car or person in the middle of the day!
11
What if we have lockdown until we run out of food, fuel and medicine then unlock and get the virus anyway but with no wealth left to fight it?
71
Firstly there is no such problem. And Australia is wealthy because of coal and iron ore, our biggest exports and they are still going. So we can afford to buy more fuel and medicine. And farmers who work 365 days are year produce four times as much food as we can eat.
The government did advise to store enough food for two weeks. And if you are not driving anywhere, why do you need fuel? And its hard to get sick on your own, which is the whole point.
Then I expect if there are no new infections then the lockdown can be lifted. Say individual towns. Suburbs. The government can start to move outside essential industries on a geographical basis by about 1 May 2020, I expect, if there are no hotspots between now and then.
It only takes one infected person to create a few hundred in two weeks, so we have to be vigilant. And with partial geographic shutdown, know that no infection has left a specific area, threatening others.
By 1 June 2020 with no new infections and most people cured, we should be fine.
52
So whatever your personal opinions are about the crisis in Australia, from Santiago to Paris, Venice to New York, the streets of the cities of the world are empty. Tens of thousands are dying every day. And there is silence. It is not the flu.
21
And to cheer everyone, a Mary Poppins viral video.
22
Beware the wolf in sheeps clothing…
the pagan pope….
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/09/pope-francis-says-pandemic-is-natures-response-to-human-inaction-over-climate-change/
“ROME — Pope Francis said he believes the Chinese coronavirus pandemic is “certainly nature’s response” to humanity’s failure to address the “partial catastrophes” wrought by human-induced climate change.
“Asked by British journalist Austen Ivereigh whether the COVID-19 crisis is an opportunity for an “ecological conversion,” the pontiff reasserted his belief that humanity has provoked nature by not responding adequately to the climate crisis.
““There is an expression in Spanish: ‘God always forgives, we forgive sometimes, but nature never forgives,’” Francis said in the interview published Wednesday. “We did not respond to the partial catastrophes. Who now speaks of the fires in Australia, or remembers that a year and a half ago a boat could cross the North Pole because the glaciers had all melted? Who speaks now of the floods?”
80
Pagan socialist? Heretic. Pope Francis believes nature can be provoked. That’s animism.
There was an episode of the very funny series Yes Prime Minister in which the Prime Minister had to choose the next Archbishiop of Canterbury. According to the show, the first requirement was that he was an atheist. And now we have it in the Catholic church. Nature is punishing us for a lack of faith in Gaia, the ancient Greek mythology.
71
https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCNgMagm3-NwKdfGiXp8WILg
More info from ny doctor questioning if this is a blood disease, also 28 year old man in adelaide now on a vent
30
I am 72, smack in the middle of the USA, and I have gone out, to various stores, almost every day. I don’t wear a mask (they are naturally germ-attractant and hard to clean). Two weeks ago, I got a slight bug, and fought it off, never really getting sick, in just 2 to 3 days.
I take echinacea to support my immune system — and give it the help it needs, when I DO “catch” any bug, viral or otherwise (because it is about one’s immune system, not the bug itself: The body was designed to fight off any such microscopic attack, and only needs the proper support). The only key is to take much more echinacea when the bug gets past the nose and mouth — the body’s outer defenses — and into the body. Any person knowledgeable about herbal remedies these days knows this, and knows vaccines are not the “cure-all” that academic “experts” tout alone. Why do you thing they want you to get a new flu shot every year? When the same old herbal remedy works every year, because the immune system is always working the same, and only it is competent to cure you, not the vaccination-pushers.
Jo, you are pushing hysteria, and incompetent observations — emphasizing one-third of a certain population while ignoring, or dismissing, the other two-thirds…and not knowing what distinguishes the one from the other anyway.
Sane Americans are calling for an end to totalitarian “lockdowns” of a mostly well people. I call for you to end your coddling of the political criminals advocating such draconian behavior. You know not what you do.
44
Harry, with respect, I’m doing what I’ve always done. Call it as I see it. No hysteria here. Just testable predictions I keep getting right. Check my posts. It’s there in writing.
You are most welcome to convince me why I’m wrong. Please come back and try, but you’ll need more than “it’s natural”. Rabies is natural too, and it’s as close to 100% fatal as anything gets. Our bodies evolved to beat it, but viruses evolved to spread. History is full of plagues.
I’m the same skeptic I ever was. While engineers warn us about the stupidity of renewables, doctors are warning us that they’ve never seen anything like this, they are afraid for their lives and some are dying. There’s no big conspiracy of frontline workers on five continents all saying the same thing. The evidence is there. Photos. Videos. Mass graves. Dead nurses. Ice rinks full of bodies.
China didnt shut 80% of it’s economy because “this is the flu”.
Some skeptics are now quoting desk-jockey political academics. I’m sticking with observations and the hands-on experts at the front line.
I’m doing my best to save the economy by getting rid of this virus.
102
The question is as Bjorn Lomborg points out poignantly is when does the economic imperative overcome the pandemic problem? As far as lockdown goes Australia is an island and we probably should persevere with nailing virus transmission. However I only see that position holding for a month or so before the young fit and productive have had enough and as an at risk grandparent I couldn’t blame them for that. What have so many of them got to lose not having an income and wracking up public debt either they’ll have to repay or wear it with massive stagflation?
Even if we’re successful at almost eliminating Covid we become a true island internationally and anyone coming here or returning would have to be prepared for user pays 2 week quarantining like days of old. There’s your international tourism gone for good as well as smashing the university sector and farewell OS holidaying for all but the most dedicated locals. IMO you’ve got a month with this lockdown experiment and you may not even have that with China reporting 42 Covid infections (you can’t trust those Commies with that) and South Korea reporting 91 cases of infected having been cleared and testing positive again. In that respect Trump has already signalled he has to make the momentous call- Continue flattening the curve or back to work and survival of the fittest. One thing’s for sure we can’t all print our way out of this as it’s a massive fallacy of composition but we could be the Lucky Island.
41
Observa, why would there need to be two week quarantine when there is already testing available?
01
Yesterday you claimed it was mere weeks away.
But today it’s here?
10
There already is a queue of Aussies wanting to get home here
Because it is safer here.
And more wanting help to do.If Australia becomes an nation with no COVID 19
There will be a huge queue of people from other nations
Wanting refuge here from the virus.
And if they have the income & assets to support themselves here, why not ?
But only after quarantine screening !
10
Yes I’m well aware of what survival of the fittest will look like with this pandemic as different demographics have different interests. You can’t blame lowly paid care workers with a lack of PPE for the obvious protecting themselves and their young. My grandchildren and their parents are more precious than me and my fading peers now no ifs buts or maybes and don’t you forget it younguns.
21
So Harry, health experts around the world should be recommending Echinea and herbal remedies? That’s 8,000 people in New York so far who didn’t evolve fast enough to beat it. By tomorrow triple the deaths from the Twin Towers of 911 and that’s just in New York, so people are being hysterical? Do you have any specific herbal remedies you would recommend?
41
Harry, protect your second amendment with your lives if need be “please”. Once you sought out the trash your end, we are going to need a big hand, we started giving up our up our rights in the 90’s, nearly got rid of the lot now, we never used them anyway apparently.
01
Most of the deaths from COVID could be prevented if the medical establishment wasn’t so wedded to pharmaceuticals and used alternative treatments.
00
I have completed all my covid awareness courses so if you are in adelaide and should be in isolation i might pop in for a visit to make sure yiu are at home lol.
From a military perspecive i dont like they way this is headed, no rumours yet of course but i can see a major cold war coming at the very least
30
Mate is stuck in Mongolia (I warned him in Feb), his girlfriend is 40mins out from Launceston at his house. (in the country)
Police are going door to door to ensure everyone is where they should be, she is not registered at that address, the drama continues.
11
Modern Dogmas, Covid19 and Echinacea
01
Deaths per million population
New York 400
Spain 300
Italy 283
USA 39
Florida 22
Canada 10
Peru 3
Mexico 1
10
Are numbers for NY double counted as they are already in US? Or v.v.?
20
This is a measure of the proportion infected, the spread of the disease, not the rate of death in those infected. They will all climb rapidly without isolation. As a major port and tourist attraction, New York had a large number of overseas visitors.
The measure of Deaths per million of infected people is a very different number. And will climb rapidly as the health system is overwhelmed.
30
“How many deaths among the under 50 will the average person tolerate before they stop sending their kids to school out of fear?”
In the US, there’s over 1500 people under 50 per month who perish in traffic accidents including many hundreds of children. This doesn’t stop people from driving. In fact, it barely registers at all because 1500 out of 330 million is less than 1 such death per quarter million people per month.
To put this in perspective, the 800 people under 50 who had been infected prior to passing (but not necessarily the COD), is less and unlike the auto accident rate, will not continue indefinitely. The 250 or so where no co-morbidity was identified is even less significant. For those under 50, the fatality rate of Corona seems no different, and perhaps even less then an ordinary flu, where again, most, but not all, flu deaths are associated with one or more co-morbidities.
Based on media reports, you would think Covid-19 was rampant across the US, but I only know of one person who came down with it and who was in a nursing home in Washington. There were several potential co-morbidities, but he has since recovered.
The psychological issue at work here is that large numbers representing a tiny fraction of a much larger number seem much bigger than they would be when presented in the proper context. We should all be very familiar with this perceptional flaw which is taken full advantage of by climate alarmist propaganda.
31
And what would it be without controls?
10
TedM,
Without controls, it would be worse, but probably not as bad as the models were initially projecting with controls. Keep in mind that the controls were based on a computer model of a ‘potential’ worst case and were instituted in a panic to overcome bad information from China and WHO. The control regime put in place is draconian, expensive, instills tremendous angst and fear, is not the most cost effective solution for stopping the spread of any respiratory virus and definitely not necessary everywhere. Herd immunity is how most respiratory disease stops spreading and if the controls are working, they’re delaying this from occurring which means a second wave will be worse than it would be otherwise.
A better solution to slow the spread of all communicable diseases is to have mandated paid sick leave and most importantly, require sick employees to stay home. Otherwise, people go to work and spread whatever they have. This is an especially bad problem in the service industry where employees interact with potentially hundreds of customers, generally don’t have paid sick time and can’t afford to skip work. Given a choice, most people will self isolate when sick, so they need to have this choice. Disease will still spread, but at a far slower rate and less likely to overrun the health care system.
00
Co2 et al,
The problem is you dont get to choose who lives and who dies, you cant use a chance of death stat like driving a car because getting sick and dying from the china virus is randomn rendering all your statisical musings to complete gibberish.
11
The zillion dollar question remains: Does the world need to develop herd immunity to this virus unless a vaccine is developed, or will isolation result in the virus being exterminated?
21
I don’t know if I believe the COV-19 data being recorded. There’s lots of indicators that consent is being manufactured for nefarious profits and further management.
Have a look at this and tell me if there is “nothing to see here” I should just move along. Tell me it’s all in my imagination and I should be more skeptical.
https://youtu.be/JR8gw6GLwug
41
🙂
00
Why are you asking us to watch a video about USA politics . ?
02
Since this piece above is about US infection and death rates due to COV-19. But more to the point because what happens in the US is instrumental in nifluencing what happens here. Politics and medicine are intersecting in COV-19 more than usual wouldn’t you agree?
But keep watching and tell me if I’m not justified in being suspicious of the COV-19 numbers being quoted.
11
Boris, stop being obsessed by the USA & it’s politics.
There are 1.78 million people with known infections by thus virus.
There are 108, 827 dead world wide from this virus.
Meanwhile China has actively suppressed real data on infections in China
For the sake of maintaining it’s prestige and status.
Meanwhile Italy & Spain & France & the UK have had many thousands become infected and die
With NO input from the USA as to how these stats are counted.
I suggest that this USA conspiracy stuff is beside the point.
It just indicates . your own obsession with US politics.
Me, I don’t give a damn about US politics.
I’ll stay focussed on the science of this bloody disease !
Data Link L https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
01
Bill,
You are being deliberately obtuse saying this video is about US politics.
Data Link L https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries – gets it’s numbers where? From hospitals or government health agencies/institutions. If those numbers are wrong, inflated, or hospitals are being granted a monetary reward for each case that’s reported as COV-19 then the stats are not reliable, period!
Your arrogance to tell me to “stop being …..”
00
Bill,
You are deliberately obtuse and misrepresenting saying this video is about US politics.
Data Link L https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries – gets it’s numbers where? From hospitals or government health agencies/institutions. If those numbers are wrong, inflated, or hospitals are being granted a monetary reward for each case that’s reported as COV-19 then the stats are not reliable, period!
Your arrogance to tell me to “stop being …..”
00
Let me summarise it for you, Bill
The video shows the how numbers are attributed to COV-19 by flawed methods and motivated by money, aided and abetted by a media campaign.
31
Here is a task for you Boris
Stop worriting about ‘Official’ COVID death stats.
And instead go & search for absolute death numbers in New York in March & April 2019
And find the same 2020.
Anecdotally I heard that there is a huge spike in deaths.
Why ?
The anecdotal reports are saying COVID !
Can you think of any other reasons why
So many people have died there in NY this year, compared to this time last year ?
02
Some interesting points Professor Jay Bhattacharya makes in this Sky News segment (see link below).
A lot we don’t know and the models are crap (sorry my word).
A happy and safe Easter to all and your families.
One more day before I am released from the Promenade Hotel in Perth, I think (they don’t tell you anything here}. Hooray!
Sky News
10
Bill, are you in the habit of preventing replies to your posts?
01
I do not have that power Boris.
🙁
But I did set you a task
To settle this issue.
Not done yet ?
00
Spain, Italy and China trialling ozone therapy.
https://theibizan.com/ozone-therapy-proving-successful-in-covid-19-patients/
00
Only my second time, short roll that.
This was trailed in the Philippines back when HIV was a new thing, I remember it was dumped because they killed the people.
I repeat it because it keeps being brought up. (twice)
Its a word.
00
Here’s a link to the April Spanish stats on age group mortality:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105596/covid-19-mortality-rate-by-age-group-in-spain-march/
All age groups up to 50 y.o are less than 0.4%
00
US mortality data cannot be relied upon. Die with vs from NOT accurately recorded.
00
Our bodies are made up of billions and trillions of virus and bacteria. So why do we not die from them. Why is the corona virus so deadly. Could it be that our immune systems are compromised?
And perhaps the younger people who have no underlying conditions who succumb to corona may have compromised immune systems.
Nobody seems to be talking about this.
00