JoNova

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Australia’s very low death rate is due to younger patients, plenty of tests

Right now Australia has one of the lowest death rates from coronavirus in the world. With 4,561 cases but only 19 deaths, the clumsy Case Fatality Rate is only 0.4%  –  lower even than Germany. While some commentators think that’s a reason to ease up it may be partly due to temporary good geographical luck. Plus winter is coming…

1. Australians with Coronavirus are younger (for the moment).

Most infections in Australia came from overseas travel — something the 20 to 70 year olds do a lot of, but apparently the 80+ age group aren’t flying on 20 hour long haul trips across the Pacific. (Last week the most common source of Australia’s cases was the USA, especially Aspen). This week the main source is Europe, and the nation called “cruise ships”.  If and when the virus starts to spread among the older cohorts the death rates will rise. (Unless we figure out that treatment first).

 

Compare the ages groups of patients in Korea and Italy. Fully 40% of Italian (known) cases are 70+.

Statista — demographics of Italian and South Korean cases

 

Demographics Italy, Korea

Italy and South Korean demographics

Fortune

As of March 14, South Korea reported that nearly 30% of its confirmed coronavirus cases were in patients ages 20 to 29. In Italy, by comparison, 3.7% of coronavirus patients fell into that age range, according to a report from Andreas Backhaus, a research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies.

 

2.  Australia has done a lot of testing –

Australia has tested 230,000 people or about 1% of the population, and since most of those tests were aimed at travellers they have found the infected younger cohort, unlike countries with less testing. Australia has done slightly more tests per capita than South Korea (which has done about 400,000 tests on a population of 52m).

Germany also also has low rates — largely due to lots of testing and a younger group of patients

Time Magazine:

But only 560 people known to be suffering from the disease caused by the novel coronavirus have died there, putting Germany’s case fatality rate at just 0.9%. That gives Germany one of the lowest rates in the world, making it an outlier compared to places like Italy, where 11.0% of confirmed patients have died from the disease, and even the U.S., which has a rate of 1.8%.

Even though Germany and Italy’s populations have similar average ages—they’re the two most elderly nations in the European Union—the median age of Germany’s population known to be infected by COVID-19 is lower: 46 as opposed to Italy’s 63. Smeeth says the lower average age is likely to just be a side effect of widespread testing. “If you are testing more people, then you will get a much younger age distribution of positive cases,” Smeeth says. “It doesn’t necessarily mean that the true age distribution of the virus is radically different between the two countries.”

Germany also has twice as many intensive care beds as Italy does:

Germany also has a high number of intensive care beds, meaning its hospitals have so far not been overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients in the same way some hospitals in Northern Italy have. According to a paper published in 2012, Germany had 29.2 critical care beds per 100,000 people—more than double Italy’s 12.5. (In the U.S., it’s even higher, at 34.2.) And these beds are currently only 70-80% occupied, according to Germany’s Deutsche Krankenhausgesellschaft (DKG), an umbrella group of hospital operators. “This means that there is for now sufficient capacity for seriously ill coronavirus patients,” the DKG says on its website.

 

 

 

 

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Rating: 9.2/10 (26 votes cast)
Australia's very low death rate is due to younger patients, plenty of tests, 9.2 out of 10 based on 26 ratings

89 comments to Australia’s very low death rate is due to younger patients, plenty of tests

  • #

    A cursory way of initial testing for a fever, say on arrival in a country, is to point a laser thermometer at the individual’s forehead.

    Having read up about this it appears to measure the surface temperature, not core temperatures or to be accurate to onlybplus or minus two degrees. Anyone out there with relevant expertise who could tell us whether this method provides any sort of reassurance that a person does or does not have a fewer and possibly covid 19?

    20

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      I’ve read that they are measuring the inner ear temperature
      On arrival at Australian airports from overseas

      10

      • #

        That may be so but I am not sure there is consistency as I saw some tv footage from today where several people were tested by different people in different situations in different parts of th UK and they all did the centre of the forehead trick. . I agree the ear may be better but tat perhaps suggests a hospital situation in order to get close enough to aim properly.

        Whichever method is used if there is a wide variation in accuracy perhaps it’s worse than useless as it could produce incorrect results

        20

    • #
      GreatAuntJanet

      The virus can be present without a fever or other symptoms. That’s why we should all be covering our mouths and noses in public (as well as handwashing and not touching face), so that symptomless people don’t walk round spreading it as they breathe out. It could be me, and I just don’t know yet.

      Face masks – there are plenty of people already stitching cloth ones and plenty of patterns on line. Get your machines out people – I never thought I’d be joining extinct rebellion and going masked in public either!

      20

    • #

      Tonyb, the infrared thermometers are good but people need a bit of training. They are better than mouth or underarm thermometers. A sweeping scan across the forehead above one eye will hopefully pick up the warmer skin over the temporal artery. It’s the first place in the human body that blood from the heart reaches the surface — so it’s the closest we can get to estimating the temperature of the heart (core temp).

      Many people don’t use them correctly. Do at least three 1 inch long sweeps across the forehead above one eye and take the highest reading.

      See the circulation diagram here to know where to scan.

      Even so, the scan may miss one third of real cases of low grade fever compared to a rectal thermometer, but I can’t see that catching on at airports.

      70

      • #
        Konrad

        But we haven’t yet reached the limit of what rectal probing can teach us!

        ACE2 receptor expression in the gastrointestinal tract is 100 times higher than the lungs …

        10

      • #
        tonyb

        jo

        Thanks. None of the tv shots showed remotely that level of scanning. it was aimed at the centre of the forehead and kept steady for a couple of seconds. I suspect any hurried situations such as at airports or those wanting entry to otherwise restricted spaces would not be tested properly, quite apart from any accuracy issues.

        20

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    This is the most frightening thing I’ve ever experienced.

    Governments are incapable of protecting us while they orbit in circles while glancing at the Media to determine the best course of action needed to get reelected.

    Government shut down fifty years ago, ten years before one of Australia’s greatest achievements, CSIRO, was destroyed.

    KK

    51

    • #
      PeterS

      Anyone looking to governments to get us out of the current mess and create some kind of man-made nirvana ignore history and will only repeat the same mistakes and eventually collapse.

      50

    • #
      tonyb

      Yes, govts around the world-or in the west at least-are being blown in all directions by MSM, Social media, experts who are nothing of the sort, quasi scientific reports and party politicians trying to ensure they don’t get blamed, all fanned by general hysteria and fear. This all sounds like Climate change AND Brexit on steroids.

      130

    • #
      sophocles

      Konrad has made a very good point below. @ #3
      I will point out that Overall deaths on the Diamond Princess were fewer than expected. As Konrad points out, the D-P is the perfect control.

      20

    • #
      America

      Grow a pair and simultaneously realize we are all in this together, if you are looking for govt or anyone to protect you, that says a lot more about you than anything else.

      Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country.

      Kind of catchy huh? Grow up…

      02

      • #
        farmerbraun

        I think he meant that governments are incapable of maintaining law and order , as well as keeping the lights on.
        That was the deal , as I understood it anyway.

        20

  • #
    Konrad

    There are a number of cruise ships hanging offshore. The government has asked them to sail for their port of origin, but the captains are afraid to far from medical services with sick on board.

    This is a golden opportunity. We should continue to offer fuel and food, but in addition, Hydroxychloroquine and zinc for all on board. We already have the control of Diamond Princess to compare to.

    In addition we could make the exercise lest arduous by allowing controlled groups to come ashore in remote areas, for a “day at the beach” etc.

    We’d have some solid science in about a week.

    101

    • #
      sophocles

      Those Captains should be planting their passengers and crew members out in the sun at solar noon every day. Then they would reduce their risk substantially giving them less to worry about. Isn’t Sea Air™ and Sunshine™ healthy and the main reasons to go for a cruise?
      (see my post at #6).

      70

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Do not allow them to enter port
      Order them to go back to their port of registration
      Where ever that is.

      The model for cruise ships was
      Employ very cheap labor from any where on the planet
      To service the paying passengers,
      Whatever their English language skills
      Or willingness to follow personal quarantine rules.
      And then have these employees stay in overcrowded
      Bunk accomodation in the bowels of the ships.
      With no access to fresh air or medical care…

      That Cruise ship model is DEAD now.
      And the ships will not be used in the future.

      31

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        That Cruise ship model is DEAD now.
        And the ships will not be used in the future.

        Regrettably, Bill, I have to disagree.

        The investment in the cruise industry is far too great to see it abandoned. Governments and the private sector around the world have invested massive amounts into terminals, vessels and harbours. The economies of many places are underpinned by the cruise industry.

        What we’ll probably see is a significant change in the practices employed onboard in the areas of hygiene, staff training, cleaning, food preparation and so on. We may also see changes in the requirements placed on passengers, such as ensuring they are up-to-date with all vaccinations and are subjected to a medical clearance before boarding.

        20

        • #
          farmerbraun

          Will I need an implanted bar code to verify that I am the ID mentioned on the certificate of vaccination?

          30

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            Not just yet. Your passport will suffice as long as the photos on the two documents match the facial recognition readout.

            10

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Lack of Demand has already killed the Cruise ship industry !

          20

    • #
      Peter C

      This is a golden opportunity. We should continue to offer fuel and food, but in addition, Hydroxychloroquine and zinc for all on board. We already have the control of Diamond Princess to compare to.

      The Hydrochloroquine trials seem to be taking forever to get started. Professor David Patterson was very enthusiastic about Chloroquine initially but by the next day he was talking about “an old arthritis drug” and chloroquine was no longer mentioned. Apparently a trial is being organised and they expect to enrol the very first cases early Next Week!. Since there are already 4000 active coronavirus cases in the country the delay is hard to understand, unless we don’t actually have any chloroquine and we are waiting for supplies to arrive.

      50

      • #

        The Cruise ship situation is a humanitarian disaster. For that sake alone, I would prefer we could offer them more than telling them we don’t want them and to “go away”.

        I don’t know what the answer is, but I don’t see much discussion going on of the options.

        We have many hotels in Australia with no one in them. Perhaps we can ask people on board to pay to stay for two weeks of strict quarantine, and the sooner the better. As we saw with the Diamond Princess, a mere couple of weeks on board converted one case into 700. 10 people died, but two months later, they still have 100 people who haven’t recovered, and 14 or so are still classed as “severe”.

        There must be a way to make cruise ships safer. Give them masks. Put people in external rooms, let them open windows. Tape up the air conditioning ducts or add industrial filters to them if we have doubts about the air. Take the internal room people in strict quarantine onshore. Test test test the food delivery people. Don’t let people wander down infected corridors. etc etc etc. Experts in Japan must be able to advise what not to do.

        Ideally, in future pandemics the brains trust will tell people to suspend all cruises. Why were any allowed to leave port loaded with passengers in late Feb?

        My parents were tempted by cheap deals but in the first week of February I said “no way”.

        70

        • #
          Robber

          Always opt for a balcony cabin so you can breathe the fresh sea air.

          40

        • #
          Konrad

          With what I propose, we would be offering them more than any Australian is getting: zinc supplements and 400mg of Hydroxychloroquine per day for 9 entire ships.

          They would also have helicopter access to emergency services on shore.

          Novartis AG has offered 50 million 200mg doses to the global effort. They could hardly refuse Australia this, as the ships are filled with citizens from around the world.

          Big pharmaceutical would go absolutely mad. A huge scale controlled test of just Hydroxychloroquine and zinc, the very thing they have been fighting tooth and nail to prevent.

          But what could they do? They have all the doctors and “experts” on shore under their thumb. But the ships are at sea. The Captain makes the rules, not big pharmaceutical or their Australian lickspittle lackeys.

          1 to 700 in 2 weeks, even using masks. Diamond Princess was the perfect control and now 9 huge totally isolated Petri dishes …

          20

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            PS As for masks
            There are not enough for us Aussies.
            Or even for our medical people treating COVID 19 patients.
            So Aussies are making their own now
            Tell the folk on the cruise ships to do the same
            MAKE YOUR OWN MASKS !

            20

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Jo I suspect that part of the problem is cost.
          Does Australia have an obligation to quarantine, feed, medicate and fly home all these people from other countries ?
          Most of us think NO.
          That’s what I think
          The cruise ship companies knew this disaster was hurtling down the road at them.
          And they kept on doing it.
          Lt the cruise ship companies sort out the huge mess they have wittingly created.

          20

        • #
          Bobl

          Jo, they just need to handle it the way they did with the Diamond Princess, extract them, put them in Quarantine in a disused NT mine site until they are proved harmless.

          Perfectly safe.

          30

        • #
          peter

          Install black-light UV-A fluoros throughout the ship? UV light is fatal to micro-organisms – airborne or on surfaces. They would need to be all over the ship. On the wall at every bar, buffet restaurant, toilet washrooms, corridors, lounge areas, night club etc. Continual radiation would be needed to be effective. They used to be in many bars years ago but have since disappeared. The only side-effect has been that staff felt healthier for their presence. In the aircon system they should also put UV fluoros into return-air ducts to (partly) sterilize airflow.

          Ships are a real problem for IAQ. They have to be water-tight for most cabins and common areas. This means air-tight for most areas making the ship dependent on recirculated aircon air that can carry aerosols (+ virus particles)throughout many areas. In spite of the legend of people exposed to bracing sea-air, most passengers (personal observation) spend 90% of their time below deck. Over-eating is not the only risk of cruise holidays.

          10

        • #
          tonyb

          Jo

          Here are various photos and videos showing how the excel exhibition centre in London was converted to a 4000 bed hospital in 8 days.

          https://www.theguardian.com/society/video/2020/apr/01/nhs-nightingale-inside-londons-temporary-coronavirus-hospital-video

          It was carried out by British troops. Oz has also got superb armed forces and surely there are unused enclosed spaces nearby that could be converted into several zones to keep the healthy, the suspect, and the ill from the ships separated, and moved from one zone to another as needed.

          The thing is to get them off the ships quickly so the accommodation needs to be safe rather than luxurious and things can be upgraded as time and cases proceed.

          As one troop said ‘it was great working together as a team, it is what we are trained to do.’

          Whereas Politicians are not trained to do anything very useful in a crisis and sometimes need to realise that, give instructions then stand aside

          10

        • #
          tonyb

          Jo

          “There must be a way to make cruise ships safer. Give them masks. Put people in external rooms, let them open windows. Tape up the air conditioning ducts or add industrial filters to them if we have doubts about the air. ”

          There you have just encapsulated the problem with heat pumps, which require tightly sealed spaces in which to work something like vaguely efficiently. Many of our offices and hotels are already sealed and recirculate bad air and we are being encouraged to do the same over here in homes in order to make the switch from highly efficient and cost effective gas boilers, to wildly expensive heat pumps. These only work properly with considerable insulation (fine where possible)) and a relatively sealed home.

          10

  • #
    The Dark Lord

    ahh … they made sure the frail elderly didn’t catch it … nothing to do with tests or young patients … well maybe the tests help keep the virus from the elderly …

    11

  • #
    Sunni Bakchat

    Switzerland now has higher testing rate than South Korea. https://lenews.ch/2020/03/26/coronavirus-swiss-test-rate-now-higher-than-south-koreas/

    30

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      From the link :
      “However, there are significant differences in how the two countries have approached testing. South Korea tested earlier, more preemptively and included significant numbers of suspected cases. In Switzerland, testing has been more reactive and focused on high risk highly symptomatic individuals. Many in Switzerland with symptoms remain untested. Many others in close contact with untested symptomatic people have not been tested either.

      These differences in testing are reflected in the test results. South Korea has conducted 364,942 tests but only discovered 9,241 cases, 3% of those tested. On the other hand Switzerland’s 91,400 tests have discovered 10,714 cases, 14% of those tested.

      This means South Korea’s 9,241 case number is likely to be far more complete than Switzerland’s figure, which is likely to be heavily understated and far from the actual number of people infected.”

      We here in Oz have gone the Swiss route. Not the South Korean !

      20

      • #
        Sunni Bakchat

        Bill in Oz, Unfortunately the triaged testing appears to come down to a lack of availability of testing kits. Nonetheless its good to see the test numbers dramatically increasing both in percentage and absolute terms.

        30

  • #
    sophocles

    It’s happened towards the end of Australasia’s summer when the overall population has higher levels of vitamin D. The Northern Hemisphere is being hammered because the overall population vitamin D levels will have decayed because of much less sunshine. This is without any measurements, but it’s the main reason we have a Coughs-Colds-and-Flu season. It corresponds to the trough in Vit D, compromised immune systems. And that’s where the northern hemisphere countries are.

    Dr. John Campbell of UK on vit-d efficacy as immune system reinforcement
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk

    It’ couldn’t have happened at a better time for the Southern Hemisphere, but we could see a resurgence when we arrive in our own CC&F season.

    It may be more cost effective for the Govt to fund/issue Vit-D+K2 dietary supplements instead of ever more ventilators.

    50

    • #

      Not only were we deprived of sun but now being confined to your home is not going to help anyome to build up their vitamin D

      30

      • #
        sophocles

        I’ve had cloudy day after cloudy day in Auckland and have had to resort to supplementing from the bottle. The day dawns without a cloud to be seen, but before midday, it’s all occluded. It clears away later in the day, but too late.

        I don’t know who I’ve offended, or how, but He/She/It is sure making a point.

        10

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Buy it ! It’s dead cheap on Iherb or other online sites.

        20

        • #
          sophocles

          Can’t buy Sunshine :-D Dammit!

          But, seriously, I’m weeks ahead of you there, Bill.

          I am.

          I prefer sunshine, because there feel to be other good things going on in the skin. However, despite Ebenezer Scrooge featuring somewhere close in my ancestry, I’m buying it. As you say, it’s cheap enough …

          If I want to really indulge the Ghost/Presence of Uncle Scrooge, I can have my doctor prescribe it which makes it even cheaper …

          30

  • #
    Another Ian

    Update from Chiefio

    “States, Counties, Cities, Personal – You Are On Self Rescue Now”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/31/states-counties-cities-personal-you-are-on-self-rescue-now/#comment-127646

    20

  • #
    eliza

    Reality 200000 people die every day Millions of young people like yourselve will suffer because of this HUMAN stupidiy this is just a normal cold flu virus will not affect warm countries but your leaders and scientists are incredibly stupid today so you will suffer beleive me I know I was a scientist there on the 90,s and they were incredibly stupid However in the 50s they were the smartest in the world its a pity

    Fin de la conversación
    Escribe un mensaje…

    00

  • #

    Exactly how is this years cold any worse than the last few years, there is not even the usual spike in flu deaths

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/30/covid-19-deaths-in-europe-excess-mortality-is-down/

    When exactly are we going to be presented with meaningful numbers that include all the people that were exposed to and recovered from this virus before it was even raised as an existential threat. Or, the number of people who are actually dying from Covid 19 directly and not from a complication of it with some other illness.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/31/futile-fussings/, Note Kevin’s comment about the nature of the exponential curve from Wuhan.

    Next year when the Flu season is upon us are we going to be watching endlessly, charts showing how many people have been tested for and died with the Flu? Will this become the new Football? Gogglebox help me!

    72

    • #
      el gordo

      This is the thing, the precautionary principle was applied just in case and it worked a treat.

      ‘The Dow Jones industrial average capped off the worst first-quarter of its 135-year history, with markets staggering under trillions in losses from an economy paralysed by the coronavirus.’ SMH

      21

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      More WUWT tripe !
      I think that the folks running WUWT do not believe pandemics exist
      Why ? Ideologically unsound !
      As for Roy Spenser, he is a Climate Scientist
      And needs to stick to his area of expertise & experience.

      If anyone wants sensible post from the ISA on the Corona virus
      Take a look at Musings from Chiefio
      The link is posted above by Another Ian

      13

      • #
        Cameron J

        Bill, is the graph Spenser posted showing fewer overall deaths this (northern) winter, wrong?

        20

        • #
          Cameron J

          I mean European winter, the graph doesn’t show deaths over all of the northern hemisphere, just Europe.

          10

    • #
      sophocles

      Enthalpy:

      It’s not yet cold in the Southern Hemisphere. We’re moving out of summer and into Autumn. In another month, what cold we will get will start to arrive.

      30

      • #
        farmerbraun

        Yep 9 deg C. this morning . But clear all the way to Antarctica.
        It’s a bit early to think frosts , but we’ve got the brown grass.

        10

      • #
        farmerbraun

        Going by day length though we are ten days past the middle of Autumn. four weeks to the beginning of winter.
        Plants notice these things . So do sheep.

        20

      • #
        el gordo

        We have to squash the virus before winter kicks in, assuming it has similar characteristics to the flu.

        20

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Futile Fussings – a history of graphical failure from cattle to #coronavirus”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/31/futile-fussings/

    21

  • #
    Ross

    I saw a similar analysis for NZ yesterday. The profile looked like the South Korean one.

    10

  • #
    Chad

    South Korea reported that nearly 30% of its confirmed coronavirus cases were in patients ages 20 to 29. In Italy, by comparison, 3.7% of coronavirus patients fell into that age range,

    I am not sure this is comparing apples to apples !
    Confirmed cases is just a positive test result
    “Coronavirus Patients” , implies something more,..possibly hospitalised ?

    20

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      It depends who the Italians were testing
      If they were not testing the asymptomatic folk around infected persons ( younger ? )
      Then they will be doing testing that is pretty useless at finding the asymptomatic carriers.
      Hense the uncontrolled nature of the disease in Italy and maybe Spain.

      10

      • #
        Chad

        Sure, but if that 3.7% in Italy is Coronavirus “”Patients”. Under TREATMENT….then it is not surprising that the younger age group has a low proportion..as they have shown to be less seriously affected in all reports.

        10

  • #
    Ross

    I have been ranting on here several times that presenting positive test results on their own is useless especially if you are comparing different countries.

    Thanks to Jo above we have a figure for the number of tests done in Australia –230,000. The latest positive test figure is about 4600 so we have a 2 % positive test level for the number of tests done. NZ at present has a positive test number of 650 so that means if we have the same 2% figure we would have tested 32,500 people. I am sure we have not done that many tests ( last I read it was around 1000-1200 per day). Ardern is pushing to increase the number of tests but as usual with her it is a reactionary move.
    So this suggests to me NZ might have a higher level of infection. Thankfully we only have 1 death ( no information of whether it was from the virus or with the virus).

    I think both countries are testing the same sort of person –those that have travelled and those that are showing some form of symptom.
    That is, neither are doing random testing which means the level of infection in the general population must be lower.

    30

    • #
      Chad

      Ross,
      The figures for Total and Daily testing have been available for not only Australia overall, but also individual states,… for many weeks.
      But it varies greatly as to how many each state is doing , and also how many each day.
      NSW is by far the most intense tester with over 100,000 tests to date whilst Vic has been seriously dragging its heels…And , as you say, the quantity of testing is directly reflected in the number of “new cases” reported.
      https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/diseases/Pages/covid-19-latest.aspx#statistics
      Fortunately, some of the media are finally looking beyond the misleading dazzle of the “exponential” curves and crude “new cases” figures, and are actually trying to sort out some relavent data

      30

      • #
        Ross

        Thanks Chad.
        It would be interesting for someone who is better with figures than me to look at the daily testing figures and re -present the graph for Aussie that Jo put up a few threads back. Last night I suggested that if the increase in level of daily testing was taken into account, then drop in positive tests in recent days in Australia, could been seen as much more significant.

        BTW. I have just seen some more up to date figures for NZ testing and it looks like recent days have been at about 3500 per day which suggests NZ is getting closer to the Aussie. Officials want to get it up to at least 5000/day.

        10

        • #
          Robber

          See my post #22 under social distancing blog. Repeated here:
          Have we passed the peak of daily infections in Australia?
          Daily average smoothing over 3 days going backwards from March 29-31: 307: 403; 359; 214; 111; 59
          From March 13 when the number of new cases was doubling every 3 days, the last 9 days has seen a clear flattening.

          Can’t find daily reports for NZ, but found this: New Zealand now has 514 confirmed and probable Covid-19 cases. (Update now over 600)
          “One week ago we had 66 cases, two weeks ago we had eight, three weeks ago there were five and four weeks ago it had just been confirmed that one person had tested positive in New Zealand.”
          And worst case modelling: In this worse case scenario the epidemic would be expected to peak in early July 2020 (assuming undetected spread since 1 March 2020, see Figure 1). A total of 3.32 million New Zealanders would be expected to get symptomatic illness; 146,000 would be sick enough to require hospital admission; 36,600 would be sick enough to require critical care (in an ICU); and 27,600 would be expected to die.

          10

          • #
            Chad

            Robber.
            There you go, quoting numbers that are just based on “daily new cases” with no consideration of the corresponding number of tests !!
            The number of tests on the 29th was almost half the number reported on the 28th
            Although, as Andrew said below,..im not sure anyone knows the true number very accurately !

            11

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      Cleanup required in aisle one!

      On Sunday the PM said:

      with over 211,000 tests undertaken

      Yesterday Mr Hunt said:

      more than 230,000 tests had been done in Australia,

      This morning the federal “(COVID-19) current situation and case numbers” page said

      250,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.

      Today Jo said:

      Australia has tested 230,000 people or about 1% of the population

      Tsk tsk, Jo. That’s not what the PM or Mr Hunt or the status page said. They all said the number of tests performed. I’ve been unable to find any government publication that says how many unique individuals have been tested. I suspect that set is comprised mainly of healthcare workers, as they have a front row seat in being exposed to known COVID19 cases as well as priority number 1 in preventing ill and immunocompromised people from getting COVID19. Happy to be proven wrong… if the government would just release the darn numbers.

      30

  • #
    Robber

    Measuring body temperature:
    Taking a rectal measurement is the most reliable way to obtain a core temperature value. Result variation with this type of measurement is low and the precision is particularly high. The normal temperature range is approximately between 36.6 °C and 38.0 °C.
    An oral measurement can be taken in the cheek or under the tongue. In both cases, the temperature measured is below the measured value of a rectal measurement – approximately up to 1.1 °C. The normal oral temperature range is approximately between 35.5 °C and 37.5 °C.
    Measuring the body’s surface temperature is normally conducted by medical staff in the armpit and in the groin. The temperature of an axillary measurement is lower than a rectal measurement – up to 1.9 °C! The normal axillary temperature range is approximately between 34.7 °C and 37.3 °C.
    The temperature of the eardrum is measured with an infrared sensor. The normal ear temperature range is approximately between 35.5 °C and 37.7 °C.
    The forehead thermometer is placed on the forehead of the patient. An infrared sensor detects the highest measured value, while a second sensor measures the ambient temperature. The normal temperature range on the forehead is approximately between 35.4 °C and 37.4 °C.

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    • #

      paranoid gibberish?

      What’s the prize for getting it right?

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      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        paranoid gibberish?

        Probably.

        But what was in the vials?

        Do you have any evidence on that?

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        • #

          So someone sees some vials and makes a claim about their contents and it’s my job to disprove them? Easier to claim it is water and get the other person to disprove me. Can you?

          I’ve transported vials of stuff. So what? Is it because of the nationality of the people carrying them that we get the paranoid conclusion?

          This is not the climate skeptic game anymore.

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            Sceptical Sam

            This is not the climate skeptic game anymore.

            I agree with you GA. It’s far more serious. This is real.

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      el gordo

      This is not a biological warfare conspiracy to take over the world, we simply have to exterminate those bats in dens of iniquity. WHO may pontificate but the West is fighting back with harsh words to shame Beijing, enough is enough, clean up your act, we are in the 21st century.

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        farmerbraun

        “Let’s do this !!”
        TM (Jacinda Ardern)

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          Konrad

          Was this in reference to a worried looking sheep with extreme “pucker factor”?

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            sophocles

            … more likely an absence of `Red-Band’ gumboots. Those are reputed to worry the sheep and JA is from Morrinsville, a Waikato farming town, although I can’t really see her in a pair particularly disturbing sheep …

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    Michael Gronemeyer

    The number of deaths follows the number of infected with a delay of 2 to 3 weeks. If the growth of the dead remains constant but the growth of the positively tested decreases, then the death rate automatically increases. However, it is unclear whether the decrease in the growth of the positive tests is due to a decrease in infections or rather because the number of tests does not increase in the same way as the number of infections.

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      sophocles

      Perhaps that applies to any of the other six corona viruses which infect humans.

      What would be really telling would be to measure the Vitamin D levels in everybody.

      Ask yourself: why is there a period for almost everywhere outside the tropics to have CC&F (coughs cold and flu) seasons?

      A clue is: these (the CC&F seasons) are usually late winter into early spring.

      WXCycles has reported that he can’t see any correlation between warm and cold. Perhaps he’s looking at the wrong parameter and should be examining available sunshine hours instead of temperature.

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    Broadie

    There has been an increase in positive results from the University of Washington.

    Try graphing the positive plus inconclusive vs number of tests. The increase may become significant if the status quo is maintained.

    https://depts.washington.edu/labmed/covid19/

    In the meantime while the British were carting fuel in kerosine tins, the Germans where fueled up and firing using jerry cans.

    Hence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI&feature=emb_logo

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      Sceptical Sam

      Hence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI&feature=emb_logo

      Hey Broadie,

      I just love these academic eugenicists, especially when they’re German.

      The off-green jacket was the give-away (the ‘tell’, for our gamblers).

      Is it something in the German psychological make-up that brings them out on occasions like this?

      What is the death toll in Spain, again? Italy? Does he know? Or care?

      Does he know what a psychopath sounds like when in full flight?

      He’s yet another intelligent fool.

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        Broadie

        Maybe.

        Yet we are dealing with a very virulent and deadly bug. Why is it respecting supposedly open borders?

        And, wouldn’t mortuaries fill when you have an ageing population that dies at 2200 a day as I heard Italy’s does any other year, when no-one can travel, when the modern equivalent of the ‘Blackshirts’ break your legs if you leave your home and funerals are restricted?

        Jacket or not, what is incorrect in Wodarg’s statement?
        Why isn’t the UW dashboard taking off? The ABC’s expert Norman Swan? made the statement tonight that Australia’s infection rate has decreased as less were tested. Why didn’t he state the increase was because more were tested every time the count increased. Was he a wearing the correct clothing?

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          Sceptical Sam

          Norman Swan believes that man-made CO2 is the primary driver of global warming.

          He has no scientific credibility. He probably wears pink to match his politics.

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        Chad

        The off-green jacket was the give-away (the ‘tell’, for our gamblers).

        What is the death toll in Spain, again? Italy? Does he know? Or care?

        Sam,
        So now we judge someones viewpoint by the color of their jacket ?
        What about the hairstyle, ?…or the beard.?…or the heavy framed glasses ?..or the country of origin ?….
        ..Pick you personal prejudice !
        And what about those death tolls ?..
        And how do the total deaths in those countries compare to a “normal” year similar period ?…
        .lets see some real analysis of the full cause of those deaths, Italy have already admitted that many of theirs may well be other causes

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