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Another possible cure for coronavirus, found in sheep dip: Ivermectin

A single treatment able to effect ∼5000-fold reduction in virus at 48h in cell culture.”

–Caly et al 2020

It’s another day in freaky chemistry — researchers at Monash University found that one of the main components of sheep drench is also very good at reducing Coronavirus, at least in test tubes. Ivermectin’s an unsung hero of the world of biochemistry, called a “Wonder Drug” and a “Blockbuster” because it works against  roundworms, lungworms, mites, lice, scabies and hornflies, as well as cattle-ticks. Most importantly, it kills the worm that causes River Blindness, saving the vision of thousands in sub-saharan Africa, and places like Ecuador.

That’s doesn’t mean it will work in vivo — and it may be a month before human trials begin so we can find out.

Possibly, in a few months you might be able to kill off Coronavirus and deworm yourself at the same time.

Though the human experiment is already probably happening in countries where it is being used already and coronavirus is circulating. Surely we can track those cases?

And at least in Australia, unlike Chloroquine — which we don’t have much of — with 70 million sheep I can’t see us running out of sheep dip.  (If indeed Ivermectin turns out to be useful against coronavirus). They won’t run out in New Zealand either where there are 6 sheep for every person.

How long will it be before some unfortunate sod drinks sheep drench  like the man who drank fish tank cleaner.

Coronavirus breakthrough as scientists discover a drug used to treat HEAD LICE can kill COVID-19 cells

      • Researchers at Monash University found Ivermectin can kills COVID-19 cells
  • The anti-parasite drug killed off the cells within two days and is widely available

An anti-parasitic head lice drug available around the world has been found to kill COVID-19 in the lab within 48 hours.

A Monash University-led study has shown a single dose of the drug Ivermectin could stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture.

‘We found that even a single dose could essentially remove all viral RNA (effectively removed all genetic material of the virus) by 48 hours and that even at 24 hours there was a really significant reduction in it,’ Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute’s Dr Kylie Wagstaff said on Friday.

The cost of Ivermectin is around 15c in the third world, and $50 for one round for a human in New York.  (Still a lot cheaper than a $5000 a day ICU bed.)

…Merck has donated well over 2.5 billion Mectizan® tablets for Onchocerciasis treatment, with in excess of 700 million treatments authorised. Currently, some 80–90 million people are taking the drug annually through MDA in Africa, Latin America and Yemen. A further 300 million total treatments have been approved for lymphatic filariasis, with around 90 million treatments being administered annually (Fig. (Fig.8 ).8 ).

The drug was discovered in 1975 derived from a microbe in Japanese soil. By 2011 some $4 billion dollars worth of Ivermectin have been donated to the third world.

It is used humans, even in children:

Ivermectin, while paralyzing body-wall and pharyngeal muscle in nematodes has no such impact in mammals, as it cannot cross the blood-brain barrier into the mammalian Central Nervous System, where GABA receptors are located.

It can be taken orally to kill head lice. It just means a lot of safety testing has been done already.

Why antiviral and antiparasitic?

Invermectin

When Ivvermectin binds to “Imp B” the viral protein can’t get across the BPC into the nucleus.

There is no obvious reason why these should be connected, but apparently  Ivermectin is useful against other viruses too, including HIV, Dengue, West Nile, and influenza. (As an nice spin off from covid-19 we might find ways to cure the flu.)

RNA viruses seem to need to use a molecule called “importin” to get themselves into the nucleus of the cell, and Ivermectin blocks that.

 Ivermectin has since been confirmed to inhibit IN nuclear import and HIV-1 replication5. Other actions of ivermectin have been reported7, but ivermectin has been shown to inhibit nuclear import of host (eg.8,9) and viral proteins, including simian virus SV40 large tumour antigen (T-ag) and dengue virus (DENV) non-structural protein 55, 6. Importantly, it has been demonstrated to limit infection by RNA viruses such as DENV 1-44, West Nile Virus10, Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV)3 and influenza2, with this broad spectrum activity believed to be due to the reliance by many different RNA viruses on IMPα/β1 during infection11,12

 – ScienceDirect

But to show how fickle these things can be, even though it made it to phase III clinical trials against Dengue in Thailand, and it reduced the viral count in vivo, it still didn’t produce a clinical benefit.

So keep a sober mind that reducing viral loads in test tubes may not translate into saving lives in the ICU ward.

But even if Ivermectin is not the answer — something else will be, and hammering this virus is helping us buy the time to find what that is. We will figure this out and it may be sooner than people think.

There’s never been a time like this, with modern biotech, a trillion dollar life-and-death-carrot, and labs focused on this all around the world.

UPDATE: Norm der Ploom   April 6, 2020 at 10:58 am points out that Ivermectin is a sheep anthelmintec which is a drench not a dip. Drenches are administered orally to kill internal parasites whilst sheep are dipped in other chemicals to kill external parasites.

Plain Jane uses Ivermectin and other treatments and has details on which is used and where in agriculture. It is not used as an oral sheep drench any more, but is for horses, and is poured on the backs of cattle. She hopes no one drinks this. See  April 6, 2020 at 8:26 am

h/t Steve McIntyre @ClimateAudit, via Willie S, Another Ian, Bill in Oz, El Gordo, OriginalSteve

REFERENCE

Caly, L. et al (2020) The FDA-approved Drug Ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitrohttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.antiviral.2020.104787

 

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Rating: 9.6/10 (56 votes cast)
Another possible cure for coronavirus, found in sheep dip: Ivermectin, 9.6 out of 10 based on 56 ratings

311 comments to Another possible cure for coronavirus, found in sheep dip: Ivermectin

  • #
    James Poulos

    …and the best vaccine against a global pandemic is CO2.

    144

    • #
      Pegasus

      I do have a question: Given New York, London, more or less Australia and any other European country or city you come to mention, are effectively quarantined, why is it that we have heard nothing whatsoever about Beijing or Shanghai? Wuhan isn’t that far, let’s say within 1000Kms, how could it be possible that those two major industrial centres in China not be totally affected and a lot sooner, than everywhere else on the planet? Now I’m not suggesting they haven’t been locked down, but it’s strange to have heard nothing whatsoever from the capital city not that far from the supposed source.

      232

      • #
        PeterS

        SHANGHAI CHINA/ UPDATE DURING COVID-19/ 2 MONTHS AFTER THE OUTBREAK

        Not sure if we can trust it but what else can we do? Send some drones over there to have a peak? :-)

        70

      • #
        • #
          MudCrab

          A peak peek?

          No point in peeking during a lull.

          :D

          50

          • #
            PeterS

            Indeed. It’s a lot like those videos on YouTube showing US hospitals are not busy, no queues and all is quiet. How do we know they haven’t been taken when an evacuation drill was in progress? We need live broadcasts not recorded stuff.

            50

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              Some of those shots were actually taken in Italy and the honest left leaning US MSM purported them to be of New York hospitals.

              Never trust a lefty (or a Communist).

              40

              • #
                PeterS

                Good to see someone distinguishes a lefty from a communist. Too often they are treated as the same. Communists if given half a chance would exterminate the lefties. The lefties are just plain dumb and nobody has any time for them.

                50

              • #
                PeterW

                There’s not that much difference between a Leftie and a Commo.

                They are working to the same plan, with the same tools. The solution to every problem is government control and the response to non-compliance is violence.

                Refuse to comply and you will ultimately find that they send the men with guns to take your property, your liberty and your life.

                Some just haven’t got as far down the road as others.

                60

          • #
            Deano

            Maybe he meant to take a peek at Peking?

            10

      • #
        Lance

        Um. My guess? China is hiding their actual numbers of infected/died from COV for political and economic reasons.

        They stopped testing for COV weeks ago. No testing = No victims = No attributable deaths.

        Unlike the US, where CDC has advised doctors to claim COV as a cause of death even without testing, if it was “possible” that COV had any bearing whatsoever upon the death.

        Players Play.

        90

      • #
        el gordo

        Beijing went into lockdown for a couple of months.

        51

      • #
        James Murphy

        I have some friends in Beijing, they are still ‘in lockdown’, and have been for the past couple of months. They do not know when to expect any change to this.

        50

  • #
    ren

    “The initial results are excellent so that the admissions in the intensive care unit have been reduced, with shortened hospital stays and radiological and clinical responses that I would dare to define as spectacular. We believe that COVID therapy for pneumonia is corticosteroid therapy at the onset of pneumonia at the stage that we consider mild, particularly in febrile patients from the first week and with analytical abnormalities. Initiating anti-inflammatory therapy prior to the development of severe pneumonia, covering the period of time in which the patient can worsen corticosteroid therapy”

    “The OMS made a contraindicated mistake in the use of corticosteroids in patients with COVID infection 19. In this way, this therapy is postponed until a very serious situation in which the therapy is much less effective. Soon we will have data on all this and we will disseminate it but we will disseminate this information inviting you to try this treatment on the patients that I anticipate. Infection Does Not Kill Them Kills The Inflammatory Reaction To Macrophage Activated Infection”

    ” What we propose and are carrying out with the excellent initial results, ” he continues, “ is to start corticotherapy on the sixth day of the onset of symptoms, keeping it until day 12 so that this inflammatory phase is prevented, that is, the patient who is developing Small infiltrates in chest radiography are at risk of evolving into a distress without our being able to predict which patients will have this evolution or which patients will evolve favorably.
    https://www.elperiodicodeaqui.com/epda-noticias/el-hospital-doctor-peset-de-valencia-aplica–con-mucho-exito–en-pacientes-con-coronavirus-una-terapia-antiinflamatoria-con-corticoides/207638

    80

  • #

    [...] Possible good news from Monash University via Jo Nova. [...]

    20

  • #
  • #
    TdeF

    This isn’t just a world wide fight against a virus, it is a world wide fight against all viruses. The acceptance in the medical community and the community at large is that rampant viruses of various and increasing degrees of lethality are unavoidable. With modern rapid travel, holidays, masses on the move, the European and Chinese Flu season throws up mutated forms every year and there is a race for an innoculation to save lives. This time is different. This time we have as a nation, as a world of nations, decided to stop the spread of one virus, to stop a pandemic.

    America has become used to losing 60,000 people a year to the latest flu, even the old flu. Australia maybe 2,000 people a year. The arguments for doing nothing are the same, old, preexisting conditions, inevitable. Faced with a virus which is incredibly infective and can kill 20x as many people and quickly, the world has said we have had enough. And we are going to starve this one out of existence, at least in Australia. We are within four weeks of completely eliminating it from Australia.

    Then we do not want these flus, AIDS, measles, common colds (rhinovirus, Corona Virus) and we will not accept them. We are an island. We try to protect our unique flora and fauna and even our crops but we have not tried to protect our people for the last 50 years.

    What we need is a hard border, innoculation records, virus testing, quarantine. No more kids overseas and straight to school the day after they get home, passing around the latest sniffle which turns into a local pandemic. We had all this control before. A ship arriving in Melbourne in the 1800s would go straight to quarantine if there was fever on board, a ‘fever’ ship. The long voyage was enough to determine this. Animals routinely go into quarantine, like Johnny Depp’s dog. But somehow, we accept visibly sick people and send them straight into the community.

    No longer. And it’s about time. We have the technology. All we needed was the motivation. And this pandemic would never have started, especially if the Chinese government had told anyone. But that would mean admitting they were responsible, not just for the start of a pandemic, but for the military virus itself. If they had stopped people leaving the country, it would not have spread and they knew it. There will be a reckoning economically and politically.

    Meanwhile new cases in Australia yesterday were 134. By the end of today, hopefully under 100. And we have many new ways of reducing deaths and hastening recovery. Of course, is there nothing Cortisone cannot do?

    271

    • #
      TdeF

      As I continually write, the test of the effectiveness of isolation is the number of new cases. It has nothing to do with number of people in the country. Exponential growth would fill the country in weeks. Even in Italy and America, the total number of people infected is under 0.1%. It is a horrible disease so it fills the headlines but isolation has stopped it.

      That is because this is a chemical. It is not alive. It takes over cells and manufactures copies of itself and infects more people. Rapidly. What ultimately happens to the victim is irrelevant to the story of a dead chemical and only relevant to its progress. Stop person to person contact and the virus will vanish.

      What is doubly good about these graphs is that the infection takes a week to appear, so this graph shows that infection started nosediving a week ago. That means it is likely already stopped across Australia, apart from pockets like cruise ships.

      Then those in hospitals or isolation have to really kill it. These new treatments stop its internal spread, giving people a real chance. Across the world survival rates are soaring.

      So let’s make sure this never happens again. If people have to have their weddings in Bali, Vietnam, the Phillipines or a few days in Las Vegas or Singapore, they may face testing and quarantine on return and it would be smart not to take the children. Just like Johnny Depp’s dog. And that will make the world a much safer place and save thousands of lives at home. We have had enough.

      And the UN/EU/IMF/WHO/IPCC have to go. They are now useless political globalist machines entirely driven by their own globalist communist agendas, although they would say socialist. As on the Berlin wall, socialist is what totalitarian dictatorships call themselves.

      340

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Hitler was a National Socialist…..

        81

        • #
          TdeF

          As was Mussolini, like his father. He invented a new form though and called it Fascism and was in turn much admired by Hitler. Hitler even liked the outfits, but had Hugo Boss design his.

          At the top, the problem with government where everyone is allegedly equal is that it is not true. Who needs cash when you have absolute power, even over life and death. First you eliminate your your enemies and then your friends. I am surprised the nominal President Guadio of Venezuela is still alive. No so sure about his family. Anyone who thinks socialism is a fair system should be able to point to a success story somewhere. Still there is a new form of capitalist communism, a military dictatorship where the generals control all the businesses. That’s real socialism as practiced today. Allow people to succeed and their seize their businesses and lock them up.

          It is why the left of politics are desperate to stop the study of European history and even 2oth century history. The failure of communism and its first cousin fascism is writ large. With more deaths than any pandemic.

          241

          • #
            MudCrab

            China is basically a fascist state, not a communist/socialist one.

            People – and by people I mean our Educated Elites – like to talk up the literal jack boots of fascism and the ‘national’ part of the title. Because ‘nationalism’ (aka a love of one’s country) is also a word starting with N, to our Educated Elites fascists and Nationalists are the same thing.

            What these same people conveniently ignore is that the main part of fascism is a strong central government which oversees all industry. Industry remains ‘private’ and can do what they like provided the government approves and provided the government doesn’t suddenly decide they want them to do something different.

            The veneer is a free market. The chip board beneath is full government control.

            In real terms the difference between a socialist state and a fascist one is the lie used to control it.

            162

      • #
        DOC

        TdeF, as you say, you can’t kill a chemical. Even in ICU. (Joke. minor correction in your discourse)

        30

      • #
        Chad

        As I continually write, the test of the effectiveness of isolation is the number of new cases. It has nothing to do with number of people in the country.

        ..and as you continually forget to add, …..those numbers are only relavent if the number of daily tests stay the same….which they do not. !
        For instance , NSW reported 57 new cases yesterday from 2600 tests.
        ..whilst on the 1 st April, they reported 116 new cases from 5040 tests. ??
        But on a simple “new cases” comparason it seems the numbers are dropping ?
        ……a far better true indicator is the number hospitalised and in ICU, or deaths, since they are totally independent of the testing results, and are truly represent the effect on the entire population.

        40

        • #

          Chad, the problem with deaths is that they can be delayed by 2 – 8 weeks (see the Diamond Princess). They may also be avoided by treatment changes (hopefully).

          The only indicator we can use is the daily new cases.

          But yes, interesting point about the drop in tests. This may be real due to them changing test rules, and the test on April 1 captured more of the community who had been denied tests for weeks because they were not considered eligible.

          Hopefully there won’t be a rise in community transmission. Still very possible though.

          60

          • #
            peter

            I’ve spent much of my working life testing one thing or another. And quantitatively too not the descriptive value-loaded BS comments from climate scientists such as “hottest ever”, “the new normal” and “hottest decade on record”. To me, the testing we do for this virus doesn’t look right.

            We have had far too few tests for the virus to know what’s happening in the community. Testing has been driven by contemporary doctor-think ideas of testing only the high risk individuals like they would for heart disease, diabetes, cancer, high blood pressure etc. So most of the tests have been on people already sick and sometimes (only some) from cruise ships and airflight passengers from high risk countries. We need to test everyone (25 million) in Australia. And to test for antibodies as well to get the true picture of who is infected, who was infected and who isn’t. The cost would be a $billion, at least. But so what? The government wants to spend $180B on putting the economy on life-support. At the moment we don’t know who is infected and who isn’t until they become obviously ill. That’ like being in a zombie pandemic and only knowing who is a zombie when they put a bite on your neck. The testing regime (300,000 tests so far) looks totally inadequate. I would challenge any experienced Lab analyst to disagree?

            And Jo, being the biologist, what is the minimum number of viral particles of COVID-19 believed needed for infection? Is it thousands? tens of thousands? or 100,000 or more? Or is it a few hundred or less, in which case we’re all doomed?

            50

            • #
              Geoff Sherrington

              Peter,
              Yes, more testing is required, but of what?
              For those still alive, concerning covid-19 only -
              1. Shows if infection had been present
              2. Shows if infection is in progress
              3. Shows future immunity to this virus
              4. Shows future danger from this virus
              Ditto for Corona virus other than this one.
              Post mortem -
              1. Test for cause of death
              2. Test for comorbidities
              3. Test for effectiveness of past vaccines. …..

              These are just off the top of the head.
              I hope like hell that the medical establishment has already started these rolling, but I am not in a good position to check on status. Geoff S

              30

            • #
              Roger Knights

              The reason for the paucity of tests is that far too few test kits are available. And it’s not easy to ramp up production.

              20

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              I’ve come to think of this type of this
              As Lilliputian.
              And that is not a compliment.

              00

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              I’ve come to think of this type of thinking,
              As Lilliputian.
              And that is not a compliment.

              00

      • #
        Drapetomania

        TdeF
        April 6, 2020 at 7:05 am
        That is because this is a chemical. It is not alive

        And other chemicals can replicate themselves inside hosts can they?
        And other mere chemicals can mutate inside hosts can they..?
        It can replicate.
        Its alive in a sense.

        30

        • #
          TdeF

          Semantically yes. Philosophically interesting.

          One test of life is the ability to reproduce. It also hijacks the host, forcing the host not only
          to produce copies but to sicken and cough, spreading its progeny. Another test.

          As in Richard Dawkin’s The Selfish Gene, you can take the view that the virus or gene is the life and the human just the convenient artifact.
          Except for sentience but that is lacking in bacteria and amoebae and plants.

          It is however not a self sufficient organism, but then neither is a parasite.

          So it is a self replicating non sentient parasitic strand of RNA. And it has existence. And its one and only function is self replication.
          So are we, but we would like to think that self awareness was special. Cogito ergo sum.

          20

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      We had the chance to shut our borders months ago, despite all the evidence, and *chose* not to.

      Question – why?

      110

      • #
        Destroyer D69

        Short answer… Follow the money????

        81

      • #
        PeterS

        You know we can’t answer that question. Sure we can hypothesise until the cows come home but the truth is we may never know the real reason(s). What we do know though is there are a lot of inconsistencies around the world and we need to open our eyes more to avoid being stabbed in the back, so to speak. I’m more interested in taking actions to prevent it happening again with a plan B in case it does. Whether our “leaders” have the will and smarts to do it is questionable.

        42

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        I don’t know, obviously.

        However, I surmise that the reason has something to do with the fact we live in a democracy. Citizens need to be brought along gradually to obtain their support for what might otherwise be seen as drastic, hysterical and undemocratic decisions.

        PM Morrison, by-and-large has succeeded in that – by working cooperatively with his State and Territory counterparts, irrespective of their political colour.

        You can just imagine the screams from the usual suspects if the Morrison Government moved to that position at day one without any consultation. Even a mild-mannered, well balanced and modest person like me might even be driven to object to such a course of action. Even then, I was forced to write to my local MP on a couple of occasions pointing out the need to speed things up. :-)

        Nope. While I agree it could have happened sooner, the governments of Australia have done a good job under the circumstances, in bringing the people with them.

        My current criticism is to do with getting sufficient quantities of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), masks gloves and goggles into the supply chain so all doctors and pharmacists have sufficient to meet all needs. I’m not for waiting the outcome of their (too slow) double blind studies. The evidence is pretty well in currently, on the efficacy of HCQ.

        63

        • #

          Sam, in Australia they are not discussing HCQ in public much because the answer is “we don’t have enough”. I have confirmed that with a front line worker who is looking after Covid cases at the moment. They are not being offered prophylactic HCQ. They don’t have enough PPE either. Though some miracle, if we avoid a high case load now we may get our act together without disaster in time for a future outbreak.

          This month, this round, HCQ won’t save Australia.

          60

          • #
          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            I’ve confirmed it too, Jo.

            Three pharmacists that I regularly deal with say they have none. One says even his supplier has none. Medicos that I speak to say they have none and know of no pharmacist who might supply it should they decide to write a script for it. One did say he’s hopeful of getting access soon.

            That is my point. Instead, the MSM tends to either ignore the HCQ treatment success stories, or denigrate it on the basis that it has yet to get TGA or FDA approval, notwithstanding the papers published in professional journals on its efficacy.

            The Commonwealth Minister for Health needs to extract the digit and get this drug into the supply chain. Fast.

            20

            • #
              James Murphy

              The MSM denigrates it because Trump said something positive about it. I don’t think any of these ‘journalists’ are objective enough to really care about FDA or TGA approval, or to look into the risks/benefits of said drug.

              10

          • #
            James X

            And you know this Dave because… the ABC told you? LOL

            10

          • #

            Jo,

            The key feature of the drug regime proposed by Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko in his open letter “Correspondence from Dr Vladimir Zelenko on Treatment of COVID-19 in New York March 23 2020 is the use of Hydroxychloroquine as a Zinc Ionophore.
            The role of the Zinc in his regimen is that it acts as a antagonist inside the cell cytoplasm and this metal ion blocks the replication of the virus RNA. The trick is to get the Zinc inside the cell. For this to happen we need to use a Zinc Ionophore in synergy with the Zinc ions.

            The use of Hydroxychloroquine is controversial, however it is not the only Zinc Ionophore available for use. Quercetin, a plant flavanol freely and legally available in health food stores, is also a Zinc Ionophore.
            See Nutritional Pharmacology March 21 2020 Combating COVID-19 with Zinc and Quercetin.

            One of the now recognised symptoms of COVID-19 infection is a loss of sense of taste and smell.
            This is curious because from the online website What is Zinc? We find that :

            Zinc is also needed for your senses of taste and smell. Because one of the enzymes crucial for proper taste and smell is dependent on this nutrient, a zinc deficiency can reduce your ability to taste or smell.

            It may be that the symptom of loss of smell and taste with COVID-19 infection arises because all of the Zinc inside the infected cells in the nostrils and taste buds has been used up by these cells in fighting the viral infection.

            10

  • #

    Latest UK and European stats on covid19 and flu. A lower than average year for winter mortality to date. It’s been a mild winter

    http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

    There seem to be lots of possible existing drugs that could beat covid 19 although quite which ones they are remains open to question.

    This still doesn’t look like the overwhelming pandemic when looking at the stats but the cure is certainly extremely painful and with far less money to spend on health in future if our economy is devastated the number of deaths of all sorts will surely rocket in future years

    151

    • #
      TdeF

      Everything being done to stop this particular corona virus will stop the others. It’s about time to have a season without flu, not a race for the latest innoculation. The flu industry does not have to be part of our lives.

      163

      • #
        el gordo

        ‘The flu industry does not have to be part of our lives.’

        That is revolutionary thinking, we can do this.

        A few years ago I took the jab and it made me feel crook for a week, since then I have simply practiced isolation and refused to take the vaccine. Isolating became a habit all year round and the wits in my village reckon I was ahead of my time.

        112

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          I had a similar reaction, have missed the last couple since.

          I think it was the year that there were a couple of deaths associated with the vac.

          Am all for vaccination but am a bit unsure about “annuals” as it’s hard to imagine adequate testing could have been done.

          00

      • #
        PeterS

        Interesting that Israel knows this and has already developed a vaccine that’s generic, not specific for any particular virus. Their research is perhaps unique and they have already started testing it.

        130

    • #
      TdeF

      And this also is comparing a spread of 0.1% of the population infected with corona virus with 50% of the population infected by the latest variation of the flu. It hides the lethality of this specific corona virus because the expected deaths would have reach millions in months. The days of acceptance of imported strains of corona virus and rhino virus each year are over. It’s not just the tens of thousands of deaths, near deaths, damage but the loss to the community with people off work, unable to function and the enormous cost to the health system. The flu has become a lethal industry and grown to appalling lethality without politicians being too concerned. I’m all right Jack. She’ll be right. Que sera. But no longer.

      102

    • #
      Bruce Parr

      Note that Sweden “all cause mortality” is below baseline and trending down unlike the locked down countries. How can that be? https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

      20

      • #
        RickWill

        Don’t kid yourself. The Swedish public are not dingbats. They are doing their own self-isolating as many Australians were before official, enforceable controls were in place:
        https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_SE_Mobility_Report_en.pdf
        Retail and recreation down 24%
        Transit stations down 36%
        Workplaces down 18%

        It would be good to live in a country where citizens were wise enough to take care of themselves but few countries are like that. As the case load builds and deaths increase, Swedish public will implement more strict self-isolation even if the government does not enforce controls.

        There were 2700 dingbats in Australia who boarded the Ruby Princess on 8th March. I have seen some state that Carnival would not give them a refund so they took the risk. So there is clearly a high prevalence of dingbatitus in Australia. Without strict government controls, many more Australians would now be hosting the SARS2 virus responsible for CV!9.

        I bet Boris Johnson has changed his mind on herd immunity now that he is in hospital.

        80

        • #
          tonyb

          I found it incomprehensible that so many people would voluntarily board what was very likely to become a floating prison if not a floating coffin. its not as if by early March the clear signs weren’t there that this was not a bright thing to do and staying at home would be by far the best option.

          50

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Questions asked of WHO

    “tom0mason says:
    5 April 2020 at 4:09 pm ”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/04/02/over-1000-dead-usa_today-26000-new-cases/#comment-127943

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    • #
      TdeF

      This is the usual, nothing’s unusual and other things are worse response

      Seasonal flu, 113,000
      Malaria, 228,000 deaths
      Suicide, 249,000
      Traffic fatalities, 313,000+
      HIV AIDS, 391,000 deaths
      Alcohol-related deaths, 581,000
      Smoking-related deaths, 1,162,000
      Cancer, 1,909,000
      Starvation, 2,882,000
      Abortion deaths 9,900,000

      Which deliberately hides the fact that without world action, the total for the Wuhan virus would be hundreds of millions in just three months.

      Yes, all these things are appalling, not justification for doing nothing. Abortion is a political issue. Others are lifestyle choices, often despite widespread education.

      Bill Gates is spending big on Malaria. The spread of viruses in human communities though can be stopped. As was Hendra (a cousin) in horses. As are infections in animals with quarantine.

      As is the huge cost to travel of checks for Isl*mic terrorism, something we now take for granted.

      It’s a matter of having the political will.

      We as a society see flu as part of globalization. It can be stopped. I hope we have just had our last flu season. Sorry about the inconvenience, but you have to go into quarantine unless you have a current certificate of innoculation.

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      • #
        el gordo

        Morrison has the political will.

        ‘Newspoll shows an unprecedented turnaround in support for Scott Morrison and his handling of the COVID-19 crisis.’ Oz

        Now the world needs to shame Premier Xi.

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        • #
          PeterS

          Correct. The Communist Part of China have a lot of answering to do. If they keep brushing things under the carpet and point fingers at the West it will be a big mistake on their part. I don’t think the world from now on are prepared to cop their childish behaviour. The time to ignore their complete lack of caring for the rest of the world must now end. The CPC too often speak with forked tongue.

          140

          • #
            el gordo

            ‘The CPC too often speak with forked tongue.’

            They are arrogant and inscrutable.

            60

            • #
              PeterS

              That too. The rest of the world, not just the West must wake up. Russia too but they tend to be too friendly with China. Time for them to come clean too. Of course it’s mostly wishful thinking.

              40

              • #
                el gordo

                Globalism is up for review after this pandemic, if Beijing wants to keep their dream alive then they’ll have to toe the line. In the new world order, pandemics should become a thing of the past.

                The West is demanding reparations (amounting to six trillion dollars) but that is unlikely to eventuate. So the only alternative is to apologise for f*rting in a crowded room and agree to kill the bats.

                32

              • #
                PeterS

                I’m afraid globalism has a somewhat greater risk of winning the game thanks to the damage done to our economies. Think about it. The one thing that kept a lid on globalism up to now was the reasonably stable economies of most of the world, even if it was mostly an illusion. Now the globalists have an excuse to take over using draconian measures in many facets of our lives to “fix” things if they breakdown completely, which most likely will happen eventually anyway but not just yet (I hope).

                30

          • #
            beowulf

            It’s all our fault, you haters . . . according to the Chinese.

            Chinese Embassy in Canberra attacks Australian media for “defaming” China and “inciting hatred”

            Tell it to the Tibetans, the Uighurs, the Falun Gong, the Tienanmen protesters mashed under tank tracks, the people welded into their apartment blocks, those who’ve had their organs harvested, the South China Sea fishermen from Viet Nam and the Philippines etc.

            Loss of face is apparently starting to bite. What a sick joke the CCP and its minions over here are.
            https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/04/chinese-embassy-in-canberra-attacks-australian-media-for-defaming-china-and-inciting-hatred.html#comments

            20

      • #

        Would agree with your last paragraph. We don’t close down our economy each year because of the flu, although the numbers each year are shocking.

        We also have some 140,000 ‘avoidable’ deaths each year in the UK which doesn’t cause us to close the economy. surely they should receive more urgent attention? A Vaccination certificate is a good idea but falls down as it gives false security, as in some years when the wrong strain is chosen, as in 2017 only 30% of the immunisations were effective

        50

      • #
        Chad

        …..
        Which deliberately hides the fact that without world action, the total for the Wuhan virus would be hundreds of millions in just three months…….

        Utter, rabid , speculation. !
        Obviously based on some over simplistic mathmatical “Model”… with not even a hint of rational thought or common sense applied.
        I thought WXc’s forecast of 10,000 deaths per day in the UK, was beyond rediculous, ..but this truely sets new standards for wasted blog space. !
        You are working yourself up into a state of total frenzy over what may well pan out to be the biggest mistake of all time !
        I suggest you step away from the Bong, take a break from thinking too much.

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  • #
    Lance

    Well, there’s another bit of “freaky chemistry” to ponder:

    Viagra also stops COV.

    https://www.newsmax.com/us/nitricoxide-covid-19-test/2020/04/05/id/961462/

    At least it will put a smile on half the population’s face :)

    “Get Cured Today. Are You Ready? ” (T/M) :)

    10

    • #
      Clyde Spencer

      The thing about nitric oxide is that there aren’t any significant side-effects anticipated. Should there be, they will typically last less than 4 hours. If it does last longer than 4 hours, you are urged to call your urologist.

      00

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    For goodness sake, lets go straight to the good old tried and true remedies used to fight the Spanish Flu. After all, apart from respirators, we have not made any significant medical advance since then.

    First antimalarials, now sheep dip, still looking for that elusive silver bullet? I’ve got some snake oil, willing to swap for toilet paper!

    420

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Dont be a goose, looking to create unnecessary drama.

      Are you bored? Clearly.

      You need something productive to go and do..like weeding the garden, or tend to sick koalas.

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    • #
      el gordo

      ‘ … we have not made any significant medical advance since then.’

      That is not true, humanity has made great leaps forward in every aspect of medical science. The trouble is that the viruses also want to survive on this planet, so they mutate and reinvent themselves. We have to exterminate the bats in China, because they are the hosts.

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        So el gordo, what besides ventilators, is different in our treatment of this pandemic compared to spanish flu?

        Please note: we could have had an array of partially effective antiv’s but development of those was halted after the last outbreaks of SARS, MERS, Swine Flu etc – no money in it you see.

        512

        • #
          TdeF

          Information, comprehension, recogniition with RNA and treatment with cortisone, an array of drugs like Hydroxyquinone, invermectin, immunity boosters like anti tuberculosis vaccines, antibiotics where needed and in concert and ultimately a vaccine, with many such under clinical testing already. Also this time everyone is informed by the internet, television, pop up government advertising, internet shopping, food deliveries and a fully informed population.

          And this time, with total tracking, using GPS if necessary, the quarantine will be total. This virus is going down. Without 100 million dead.

          100

          • #
            TdeF

            And damn the cost.

            50

            • #
              el gordo

              Hear Hear!

              50

              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                So no real change then – might as well wear a red ribbon as suggested in my link. And is the internet any better than a newspaper?

                Again we are responding in the same way they did over 100 years ago.

                Do not promote fake untested pretend remedies, and its surprising that you want a surveillance state implemented

                16

        • #
          el gordo

          New strains of influenza develop all the time, prevention is better than a cure, kill the hosts and we won’t need the ventilators in such large numbers.

          20

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Nope, Peter.

          OS has you taped.

          You’re bored.

          It happens to the best of us. Go for a long walk and smell the roses.

          11

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      moderated?

      13

    • #
      Brian the Engineer

      Seems no reason not to try it immediately.
      Already cleared for use and cheap.

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      • #

        Exactly my thought Brian. The trial is already happening in third world countries. CAn’t we get teams in there to monitor different zones and the rates of illness/severity?

        Surely we can help fund people and offer support to the third world and find out if people who are already getting ivermectin are protected from coronavirus?

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    • #
      Fred Streeter

      “Our findings reveal that remdesivir and chloroquine are highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro.

      Since these compounds have been used in human patients with a safety track record and shown to be effective against various ailments, we suggest that they should be assessed in human patients suffering from the novel coronavirus disease.”

      Wang, M., Cao, R., Zhang, L. et al. Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro. Cell Res 30, 269–271 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41422-020-0282-0

      Almost as silly as using a mouldy bread poultice.

      A more cynical person than I am, might note how useful a weaponised virus could have been, especially when the antidote is known, cheap and available.

      00

      • #
        Lucky

        “how useful a weaponised virus could have been, especially when the antidote is known, cheap and available.”

        Invalid assumptions-
        ” antidote is known”: not so, today there are several with some level of effectiveness, but not a few months ago
        “weaponised virus”: no evidence the release was deliberate, or even that it was considered as a weapon, rather the release was an accident, culpable negligence.

        00

        • #
          Fred Streeter

          Off the air for a bit.
          Didn’t expect a reply!

          Chloroquine
          Published 2005:
          Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread.
          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/

          Remdesivir
          Published 2017:
          Broad-spectrum antiviral GS-5734 [remdesivir] inhibits both epidemic and zoonotic coronaviruses
          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28659436/

          While not cheap, it is available and China is applying for the national patent rights.

          It was involved in the testing of the product.

          A more cynical person than I am, might note how useful a weaponised virus could have been, especially when the antidote is known, cheap and available.”
          I am not that cynical person.

          10

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste”


    What the Media Isn’t Telling You About the United States’ Coronavirus Case Numbers – Be sure to examine the last graph, which has been updated to reflect the latest numbers from April 4th.

    What the Media Didn’t Tell You About the Woman Who Gave Her Husband Fish Tank Cleaner”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/04/05/never-let-a-good-crisis-go-to-waste/

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    • #
      RickWill

      To save wasted time, this is the direct link to the last chart:
      https://static.pjmedia.com/trending/user-content/51/files/2020/03/total-covid-deaths-per-million-1024×723.png

      I am not clear what the heading means; the information is readily available in the media. For those not basic maths challenged it is easy to calculate. The same data is presented in more detail here:
      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

      The chart does not show Australia because it is just 1death/million; 26 times better than the USA; 266 times better than Spain, which now leads the world in death rate from CV19. Taiwan is 5 times better than Australia and 1330 times better than Spain.

      It clearly demonstrates that the sooner governments acted with required level of action at the time of acting, the lower the loss of life. Taiwan sets the gold standard – their fundamental benefit is that they are suspicious of any information from China and were very well prepared for a pandemic.

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    • #
      RickWill

      This is a direct link to the chart:
      https://static.pjmedia.com/trending/user-content/51/files/2020/03/total-covid-deaths-per-million-1024×723.png

      The data is outdated. US is now at 26deaths/million. At this stage 10 fold better than Spain but 130 times worse than Taiwan:
      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

      The chart demonstrates the effectiveness of controls. US is mid range in effectiveness at this stage but it is early days in the battle there.

      00

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Beware this link !
      I looked at it.
      It has no content just a link to another web page.
      Then when I tried to return here
      I could not.
      It was ‘sticky’ and refused to let me.
      Not good or useful Ian !

      30

      • #
        RickWill

        I posted the link to the chart twice here and it did not come up. So something very strange about that pjmedia site.

        Don’t waste your time – the story is a beat up using dated data. It is trying to downplay the risk of CV19. Anyone person able to think for themselves knows CV19 is a very dangerous illness.

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    • #
      TdeF

      Fascinating. Mental illness. Covers a lot of things. So it looks like the woman may have been responsible and had a cunning plan. It struck me a the time as an odd thing to do, drink pool cleaner when you are not sick? This makes more sense. It would be hard to prove, but this woman could end up on a criminal charge.

      40

    • #
      RickWill

      The chart is not as at 4th of April. That is the spreadsheet link. The chart is dated. USA is now at 29deaths/million and still doubling every three days.

      All the chart shows is the effectiveness of controls. USA is 145 times WORSE than Taiwan at this stage and getting much worse as each day passes. USA is now losing people faster to CV19 than any other country with 1121 just yesterday. Sure it is a small number compared with total population but most states are locked down now so this figure is reflective of those tight controls. Imagine the toll if the virus was let run free through the population.

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  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Hi Jo,
    As per my email,
    Ive been wondering about the very low numbers of children that get this virus.

    Could it be a side effect from kids being treated for nits in their hair ? I’m remembering in the 1980′s, that when my two were young this happened a couple of times with each of them. And so we got the new then but regular prescription of Ivermection to treat it.

    If this is still the norm, many kids would have residual Ivermectin in their bodies destroying the Corona 19 virus.

    Just an idea ! It is too speculative given my lack of recent experience being 72. Though the livestock at the farm got drenched roughly each year…

    I remember you have kids and so may have a more recent idea of this as it is done now.

    Keep uo the great work !

    30

    • #
      Boris

      Bill,

      I have a 14 year old and in past recent years we’ve had plenty of emails sent from school that lice have been a problem so mine has has lice wash perhaps 6 times over the last 5 years.

      I’m certainly not in favour of vaccines for this at all.

      41

    • #

      This doesn’t explain a global observation.

      14

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        ?????

        20

        • #

          not every population of kids has exposure to lice remedies and yet every population presents the same.

          Also the toxicology of Ivermectin is not consistent with systemic residual persistence.

          20

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            How do you know G A ?
            That’s an assertion. Evidence please !

            Ivermectin is widely used across the planet especially in third world countries.

            10

            • #

              how tedious

              Ivermectin is widely used across the planet especially in third world countries.

              that’s an assertion. Evidence please.

              many kids would have residual Ivermectin in their bodies destroying the Corona 19 virus.

              that’s an assertion. Evidence please.

              Be nice if you could either live up to your own standard or do your own research. Basically have a think before hitting “Post Comment”

              11

              • #

                btw. reading back you’ve already disproved your speculation since a consequence of you assertions is the following.

                “many kids would not have residual Ivermectin in their bodies destroying the Corona 19 virus.”

                In other words we’d be expecting kids to respond like adults which they don’t. So no need to speculate further.

                31

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                “The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$0.12 for a course of treatment as of 2014.[10] This is down from an initial cost of US$6 proposed by Merck in 1987.[58] The company however has donated 100s of millions of courses of treatments since 1988 in more than 30 countries.[58] Between 1995 and 2010 the program using donated ivermectin to prevent river blindness is estimated to have prevented 7 million years of disability well costing US$257 million.[59]”

                Wikipedia G A !

                In other words Ivermectin is widely used in developing nations across the planet

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin

                10

              • #
                Lance

                GA, Here’s your evidence.

                https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3043740/

                “There are few drugs that can seriously lay claim to the title of ‘Wonder drug’, penicillin and aspirin being two that have perhaps had greatest beneficial impact on the health and well being of Mankind. But ivermectin can also be considered alongside those worthy contenders, based on its versatility, safety and the beneficial impact that it has had, and continues to have, worldwide—especially on hundreds of millions of the world’s poorest people. Discovered in the late-1970s, the pioneering drug ivermectin, a dihydro derivative of avermectin—originating solely from a single microorganism isolated at the Kitasato Intitute, Tokyo, Japan from Japanese soil—has had an immeasurably beneficial impact in improving the lives and welfare of billions of people throughout the world. . It is used to treat a variety of internal nematode infections, including Onchocerciasis, Strongyloidiasis, Ascariasis, cutaneous larva migrans, filariases, Gnathostomiasis and Trichuriasis, as well as for oral treatment of ectoparasitic infections, such as Pediculosis (lice infestation) and scabies (mite infestation).14) Ivermectin is the essential mainstay of two global disease elimination campaigns that should soon rid the world of two of its most disfiguring and devastating diseases, Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic filariasis, which blight the lives of billions of the poor and disadvantaged throughout the tropics.

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              • #

                Sigh… first. Still many children don’t have it and it has limited persistance thus if it was the cause of children’s resistance there would be a sizable bunch of children responding to Covid like adults. this is not observed.

                Lance’s quote is from a paper that discusses adults as well as children. So now adults are protected? Who exactly remains to die from the disease?

                You’ve both done a good job at finding the data that disproves the idea that this is why children are resistant (remember Lance, that is the point of this sub debate, not the possibility that invermectin might have a level of efficacy)

                30

              • #

                Bill, I think it’s very unlikely that lice treatments would make much difference in the first world. This would matter if kids were taking this orally in endemic lice areas (eg Brazil) — there it could possibly reduce Coronavirus cases.

                More likely kids have stronger innate immunity, higher melatonin levels, better mitochondria. There are lots of reasons. Lower obesity, lower rates of diabetes. Lower blood pressure. Stronger hearts.

                60

  • #
    Plain Jane

    Ivomectin WAS a common sheep oral drench. Not so any more. There is resistance around so Abamectin is more common, or Moxidectin. Ivomectin is fairly safe if used many times its therapeutic dose oral drenching for sheep. I am not sure about Abamectin and doseage, I know it is less dose sensitive than Moxidectin. Moxidectin is not so safe, increase the dose and it can cause sickness and death at not many times its normal dose. Ivomectin is still a common oral drench for horses. Moxidectin is as well, but caution, because its easy to kill or make sick ponies and foals with it because the theraputic dose is narrower, ie not so much needed to overdose. I wont use Moxidectin on horses under a year old for this reason. For this reason, I think that humans could easily overdose on Moxidectin in current livestock formulations.

    Ivomectin IS still a common worm treatment for cattle, but as a pour on BACKLIER. Drink cattle backliner and you would be dead or real sick quick from the carrier agent used to get it through their skin.

    I am in contact and use these chemicals routinely. I am posting this in the hopes that people dont go and do something stupid, like take the wrong chemical, or try to swallow cattle backliner.

    I think it is fabulous that “we” are finally looking for viral treatment. I am thrilled that they are looking at cheap and readily available drugs with already known saftey profiles.

    One a side note, one of the other uses for Ivomection was the possibility as an anti-cancer agent. Here is just my anecdotal observations and thoughts after reading the following article:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5446326/

    When I first went sheep farming in 2002, one of the common things I would have to do is cut cancers off the ears of sheep, or put sheep down because they had cancer on their soft pink exposed bits. I cant remember when I did this last. I had supposed it was because the sheep had changed genetically. But reflecting, it would also tie in with when I started using the “-mectin class of drugs to treat worms in sheep. This is totally anecdotal, but one can only go on what one sees, and you have to have an idea before you can start testing it.

    180

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Jane
      Good information from a current farmer ! ( I’m retired )
      No we do not want someone taking a cattle formulated Ivermectin product orally and killing themselves because of the carrier ( eg Backliner )
      But Head lice in children is treated with an Ivermectin shampoo.
      And head lice can be a very common problem is some places
      With entire classes of children being treated to stop an outbreak.

      10

      • #
        Lank

        I’m wondering if that may be why children seem to be less susceptible to the virus. There are very few children that I know who have not had multiple head lice treatments which may give them some resistance to the virus.

        20

    • #
      Ross

      The anecdotal link between cancer and uses of various medicines is well documented. Maybe not in official studies. Thats why hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is generally used with azithromycin antibiotic in any COVID-19 treatments. In some cancer studies it was noted higher survivor rates with those taking AB’s. This observation seems isolated form the AB’s direct control of bacterial infection eg. secondary infections. Seems that some of these active ingredients could also act as carriers and allow other actives to act directly on the virus particle. Perhaps the mectins also have a similar role. We’ve been wasting money on Climate Change research when we should have been doing anti viral research.

      50

    • #
      Another Ian

      Might also help to negate the “there is not enough market to justify any more research into chemicals for farm animal use” pundits too

      30

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  • #
    Lance

    The Ivermectin study at Monash Univ says the carrier solvent for the Ivermectin was DMSO.

    I’d like to point out that DMSO has the unique property of transporting solutes across skin and other membranes.

    In other words, the DMSO may have played a critical transport role. Without the DMSO, it might not work.

    That said, one could make a skin applied “patch” using DMSO to transport the ivermectin transdermally into the bloodstream. Unsure how this might be different from normal absorption via oral intake.

    Oh well. Just musing.

    30

    • #
      Another Ian

      See #18.1 – it is also used for external application.

      Maybe that would be helped by a skin coating of wool grease (lanoline)?

      10

  • #
    RickWill

    Have I been banned? Two posts upthread today have not registered.

    10

  • #
    RickWill

    Boris Johnson may be in need of some sheep dip:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52177125

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital for tests, 10 days after testing positive for coronavirus, Downing Street has said.
    He was taken to a London hospital on Sunday evening with “persistent symptoms” – including a temperature.

    31

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      No Rick !
      He needs to wash his abundant hair in head lice shampoo
      Containing Ivermectin !
      That will sort things for him

      21

    • #
      DOC

      Bit of a worry actually. That’s the start of the slippery slope. The UK, imo, can’t
      do without the Boris leadership at the moment. He’s the frontman most people listen
      to, love him or hate him. Like Morrison, he’s the man to give the message that’s decided
      by the experts behind him.

      50

      • #
        RickWill

        HRH stepping up to the plate. She has such respect in the UK that their resolve to beat CV!9 should be lifted.

        10

  • #
    Dean_from_Ohio

    ”How long will it be before some unfortunate sod drinks sheep drench like the man who drank fish tank cleaner?”

    As long as it takes for some rabid leftist woman to decide to off her husband, and blame it on Donald Trump. I guess.

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  • #
    Ross

    Couple of things to tidy up in the ivermectin story. Ivermection use in sheep is as a drench (oral) – not a dip. Totally different treatment method. Also, there is a mention of Ivermectin (anti parasitic drug) killing off cells of COVID-19 in vitro via M Uni testing. Viruses dont have cells. so this is incorrect. But it is interesting that ivermectin blocks IN nuclear import by the virus. There are a lot of individual active ingredients in the Mectins (ivermectin) group of chemistry, so there may be potential for others.

    30

  • #
    eliza

    Jo wake up most of your alarming posts are ridiculous how many old austraqlians have died from a commom flu virus people like you are diseminating panick for a nothing burger virus I have lost all respect for Mockton as an intelligent assessor scientist which he does not appear to be from his 1,5c AGW warming calculations which mean nothing it could be minus 2 anyway he appears just to be a a high froliking British politician with some knowlegde of mathematics and physics good for him and I have published 27 articles in biology veterinary science and viruses (Elsevier) my father attended classes with Einstein so for his confomt so now lets exagerate his death from coronaviruses 10000 per day from this deadly virus to satisfy his stupid cravings of death so now we have normally 170000 people dying per day normally lets say there are 80000 deaths from his coronavirus to date to satisfly his date so lets say 80000 died from corinavirus over 4 months that is 80000/120days = 665 per per day WORLWIde Please provide me with data that this deviates from the normal death rate. The British Scientists arenow amongst the most ignorant scientific people in the world they used to be the smartest I woukd be not surprised taht you will not publish this because Australia is a Police state dictartorship thats why I left it 10 years agoprove otherwise you cant

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    • #

      Two words Eliza: “Exponential Curve”. The only numbers that matter.

      PS: I believe Monckton was very early in on the HIV debate and lost friends over that too. Shoot the messenger eh?

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    • #

      Why on earth would you publish 27 times with one publisher? By my reckoning there are more than 10 publishers of reputable veterinary and related journals. The rest of your comment…. I hope you stay safe.

      31

      • #
        Peter C

        Gee Aye. Did you understand Eliza?

        She seemed to be raving to me. An unrestrained free flow of emotive ideas. And no sentences or punctuation. Was it all just drivel? Is she mad?
        At least you picked one point to respond to.

        20

      • #
        Peter C

        Gee Aye. Did you understand Eliza?

        She seemed to be raving to me. An unrestrained free flow of emotive ideas. And no sentences or punctuation. Was it all just drivel? Is she mad?
        At least you picked one point to respond to.

        00

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          Mice infected with toxoplasmosis lose their instinctive fear for the smell of cats — and the parasite’s effects may be permanent. … Toxoplasma gondii is known to remove rodents’ innate fear of cats. The new research shows that even months after infection, when parasites are no longer detectable, the effect remains.Sep 18, 2013

          Parasite makes mice lose fear of cats permanently : Nature …
          http://www.nature.com › news › parasite-makes-mice-lose-fear-of-cats-perm…

          10

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            Without random tests to prove contagion, we are somewhat stuck, just like those poor mice and cats. Random testing is to somehow/who find out how far corona type/variant into a given sample population is affected/infiltrated.

            From what i can kind of understand, random testing is the only way of finding out the true extent of percentage infection in a sample. IMNEO (in my non expert opinion.)

            10

            • #
              Lucky

              This observation is correct.
              It is not however an answer to the right question which is-
              With the current state of knowledge, what treatments are to be given for specific cases, and who should decide?

              00

    • #
      doc

      Eliza, I hope you read that entry tomorrow.

      30

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Oh, for a full stop, question mark and apostrophe. That first sentence is long enough to give a Boa Constrictor constipation. Eliza, one sentence = one idea. New idea = new sentence. Paragraphs? You’ll learn about them next time.

      It seems that it is not only critical thinking skills that Eliza is lacking.

      Eliza is a product of what nation’s education system?

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    • #
      farmerbraun

      Is there a reason why your posts, which are very interesting, are written so badly with respect to grammar , syntax, spelling, and formatting?
      It’s not criticism; I can understand your writing perfectly.
      I’m just curious.

      10

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      I have great admiration and respect for Christopher Monckton but agree with you about his approach to attacking the CAGW nonsense.

      00

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Ohhh !!!
    The dopey bloody WHO has just decided that we should wear face masks !
    Maybe they will sack Tedros next for incompetence !
    (Reposted from the end of ‘Unthreaded; yesterday )

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3078437/mask-or-not-mask-who-makes-u-turn-while-us

    60

    • #
      Raving

      Just heard a CBC news segment which said that various masks are being sold at 900% to 5,000% the price of what they were earlier. The distributors claim they are just passing on the costs their suppliers charge them.

      Mask manufacturer stocks are booming. From January 31st, 2020
      https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/surgical-masks-coronavirus-1.5447255

      10

    • #
      DonS

      Well yeah! China is now making millions of masks and needs a scared, desperate market to sell them into. W.H.O. is giving them a sales boost by recommending something they were against just 2 months ago. Back then China was buying up the world stocks of masks as fast as they could while their stooges at the W.H.O. told the rest of the world not to bother with using masks. Pretty straight forward.

      W.H.O. is not just corrupt but also a danger to human health!

      80

    • #
      Eddie

      Like going to the ball. Will it or won’t it be a masked do Mr. Tedros. The suspense is killing me.

      20

  • #
    TdeF

    Good question. We have not had a pandemic in a hundred years. WHO had not declared it a pandemic. We did not not how infective it was. We did not know how lethal it was. We did not know how it was transmitted, by air, by touch. China did, but they were still sending millions of people overseas as if there was nothing wrong.

    So our politicians moved slowly. Only with the unfolding disaster in Italy on television every night did the world realise something was happening. Then WHO called it a pandemic. And praised China’s handling of it.

    We were blindsided, like the Italians, like the Americans. And to close our doors was ‘racist’ and ‘xenophobic’. And thousands of Australians ignore the Prime Minister and went on their cruises and holidays overseas regardless. These are the greatest source of infection in the country. They should pay for their treatment.

    Even the PM thought schools should stay open and heavy handed the Catholic schools to force them to open. He was completely wrong.

    Now at last we have it nearly under control. There is no middle ground. We have to wipe out this nasty infective self replicating piece of RNA rubbish, likely created by the Chinese army as a weapon of war and released accidentally. That explains the coverup which has cost the world so many lives.

    140

    • #
      TdeF

      This was in response to a question of why politicians did not react earlier.

      40

      • #
        PeterS

        Yes in hindsight it is clear they moved too slowly but compared to how slow they move in other areas it was at light speed.

        50

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Hindsight ?
          No blinded by stupidity !

          Many of us saw this coming.
          Jp saw this coming in early Feb.
          And Jo was ignored !
          Get the facts RIGHT PeterS !
          Don’t try to obscure them.

          42

          • #
            PeterS

            Cool your jets. Yes most of us saw it coming. The majority didn’t. That’s where hindsight works best for them. We on the other hand had foresight. Trouble is politicians and the MSM don’t want to listen to us. Haven’t you noticed it yet?

            50

  • #
    Ross

    Well it looks the Aussies are doing OK in one area. The Adam Smith Institute have analysed the testing on a per capita basis and Australia ranks second behind Switzerland (13,617/cap) at 9670/cap. The data is graphed on page 11.

    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/56eddde762cd9413e151ac92/t/5e84ec2f224cce74bd7edb12/1585769520777/ASI+-+Testing+Times+-+Matthew+Lesh+-+FINAL.pdf

    00

  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    Eureka! Could it be serendip that I already have the KungFlu cure in my horse’s worm paste?

    50

    • #
      Plain Jane

      Yes,and if the dose is the same as for horses, you have 6 doses for $20 (assuming 100 kg humans)

      30

      • #
        STJOHNOFGRAFTON

        Thanks PJ,

        Even though that wormer is apple flavoured the nags put on a fandango. It has to be disguised with molasses or use a nose twitch. Now that I may have to take it I empathise with the horses. If I have to I’ll go with the molasses.

        30

  • #
    Ross

    This is an interesting graph, for the US

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EU1mrIKXYAARxug?format=jpg&name=small

    The text that went with on the Tweet was :

    “Pneumonia deaths are down just about as much as COVID deaths are up. Well that’s a strange coincidence
    They just reclassified pneumonia “

    81

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      What a Surprise.

      40

    • #
      RickWill

      Another dingbat trying to make the case that CV19 is no worse than flu.

      There are unparalleled restrictions on movement globally and we have managed to keep CV19 death rate below seasonal flu. Anyone that considers that strange rather than a great outcome for the tight controls clearly deserves the label of dingbat.

      74

      • #
        Ross

        If you at the graph the guy is asking why deaths from pneumonia have suddenly dropped this year compared to previous years. It not really about Covid 19 deaths.

        31

      • #
        Ross

        If you at the graph the guy is asking why deaths from pneumonia have suddenly dropped this year compared to previous years. It not really directly about Covid 19 deaths.

        01

        • #

          In a normal year doctors and nurses are not dying on the front line. They are not using ice rinks to store the bodies.

          I am not concerned at all that each case is not being accurately assessed under the extreme circumstances. There will also be many undiagnosed covid deaths at home in Spain, France and Italy.

          This is a war. Whatever is causing the hospital pandemonium, moves like a virus, kills like a virus, and for all the world appears to be a novel virus that no one has immunity too.

          I see zero, as in nothing, to suggest that this is a normal flu season and not a totally new virus.

          101

  • #
    Norm der Ploom

    Ivermectin is a sheep anthelmintec which is a drench not a dip. Drenches are administered orally to kill internal parasites whilst sheep are dipped in other chemicals to kill external parasites.

    50

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Ivermectin is approved for use by humans for treatment of a wide range of medical conditions
    Here is the US web site about this

    https://www.drugs.com/dosage/ivermectin.html

    ( Thanks to Gail at Chiefio ! )

    30

  • #
    WXcycles

    Italy’s death percentage may be peaking.

    % Died = 12.32% today (12.33% yesterday).

    Date | Died %
    29th March 2020 … 11.03
    30th March 2020 … 11.39
    31st March 2020 … 11.75
    01st April 2020 … 11.90
    02nd April 2020 … 12.07
    03rd April 2020 … 12.25
    04th April 2020 … 12.33
    05th April 2020 … 12.32

    Doesn’t look like noise.

    60

    • #
      WXcycles

      Hot verses cold country table update:

      https://i.ibb.co/PNWXX6m/Warm-v-Cool-Countries-Percent-Died-Covid-19-29th-March-to-5th-April.png

      8 days of data reveals there’s almost no difference in the rate of expansion this disease in hotter or colder countries. The virus is spreading at the same speed within both groups. There’s also no clear indication of a difference in severity and mortality percent within either group.

      Some conclusions:

      (1) There will be no spreading or severity amelioration in countries moving into warmer weather

      (2) There will be no increase in spread or severity for countries moving into colder weather

      (3) If we defeat it in Australia in April and May it was not because seasonal warmth made it more possible

      (4) It has to be defeated everywhere now because weather is apparently not a mitigating or militating factor in it’s spread and severity

      (5) The rapid initial spread pattern and growth in W. Europe and the USA, was driven according to the scale of direct industrial production linkages to central China, and was not driven by or accelerated by the coldness of the local weather.

      That may go against the usual views about thermal molecular breakdown of such a virus in warmer weather, but this is what the cases and deaths are showing for this particular virus over 8 days. Why that’s so for this virus I don’t know, but I do not believe that tabulated trend will reverse during the southern hemisphere’s Winter season, or the northern hemisphere’s Summer season.

      Direct transport linkage to sites of infection drives the spread of COVID-19 – not weather.

      100

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Direct transport linkage to sites of infection drives the spread of COVID-19

        I agree WX.

        And two way (bilateral) trade with China is as good a proxy on that relationship as you’re likely to find.

        I think I posted the “league table” the other day.

        40

    • #
      WXcycles

      Of the hot countries India is in deep trouble, their confirmed active case growth has been somewhere around 33% per day for several days. The death percentage is not increasing but that’s only because of the huge dilution of new active cases each day. They have only 4,288 confirmed cases, but increasing at 1.33 times per day they reach Italy case levels in 12 days.

      Peru is also shocker, 30.6% daily active case growth.

      Brazil’s improving, down to 8.3% today and falling steadily from 25% on the 31st of March.

      Most countries globally are steadily dropping their daily rate of spread of COVID-19. There are only 3 other countries above +10% growth per day, within the countries with the highest death percentages, i.e. Mexico, Morocco and the Dominican Republic (beside Haiti). Almost everyone’s getting the message to preserve the hospitals wherever possible.

      But the UK continues to be a huge disappointment, with 14.1% active case growth within the higher death percentages of western countries. Every other country within that group has got their spread under 10% and falling, while the UK is not improving almost at all on a day to day basis. Only Serbia has a higher active case growth but their % died is still only 2.7%.

      UK daily active cases growth:

      Date | % New v Active
      30th March 2020 … 13.4
      31st March 2020 … 13.6
      01st April 2020 … 17.2
      02nd April 2020 … 14.4
      03rd April 2020 … 13.2
      04th April 2020 … 9.8 (weekend day off noise)
      05th April 2020 … 14.1

      No improvement over a week.

      60

      • #
        el gordo

        ‘Thousands of doctors and academics have criticised Sweden’s laissez-faire approach to the pandemic as its death toll climbs to 401 — in per capita terms, a fatality rate higher than the US.’ Oz

        20

      • #
        Peter C

        WX,
        The UK deaths are still running ahead of your dismal projection made on 28 March but they may have just turned the corner.

        London’s Mayor did not help by declaring that travel on the crowded underground trains was safe, that masks were contraindicated and then increasing the crowding by halving the number of trains.

        80

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Paul Joseph Watson’s vid clip on that very issue is a beauty:

          https://youtu.be/WslBRY9B-n4

          10

        • #
          WXcycles

          Monty Python cringed.

          30

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          There is sometimes a very special type of utter stupidity among the English !
          This is a memorable example.
          PS I was born there !
          That’s how I know !

          10

          • #
            WXcycles

            If the curve doesn’t shallow during this week in just 7 days from yesterday (April 5th) using its multiplication factor of 1.232, this:

            Date | Dead total
            5-Apr-20 … 4,934
            6-Apr-20 … 6,074
            7-Apr-20 … 7,477
            8-Apr-20 … 9,204
            9-Apr-20 … 11,330
            10-Apr-20 … 13,947
            11-Apr-20 … 17,169
            12-Apr-20 … 21,135

            Compare that to 15,887 in Italy over a ~5 week period. It’s likely the UK will add more than that to the total during the next 7 days.

            The USA is getting a lag in death level now because hospitals in the worst affected areas are full and the bulk of the deaths will occur at home instead, and that takes longer to locate and process.

            Have a look at the new daily cases graph here:

            https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

            That is weekend rest-day processing noise. When that catches up people’s heads will explode.

            40

        • #
          Chad

          WX,
          The UK deaths are still running ahead of your dismal projection made on 28 March but they may have just turned the corner.

          ?? Which projection was that ?? ..the same one where he predicted 10,000 uk deaths/day by April 10 ?

          16

          • #
            WXcycles

            Chad, quit being such a jackass all the time, you’re just taking things out of context to distort what was said. Any projection I have put into a comment was with the observed multiplication factor of the day as an example of a trend, and was appropriately qualified as such.

            And that is done with the intent of making people aware of the trend, and of the need to change the trend to lower the numbers.

            I will keep doing this no matter what you say, and as you’ve just read from Peter C apparently what I said on the 28th was more or less in the range of the observation. I don’t remember what I commented back then, but if you are going to ‘quote’ me, then have the basic decency to include a link to what you’re claiming I said. Because I bet in context anyone reading it will see it was perfectly valid and reasonable to do it.

            7 days from yesterday, the UK will have 4 to 5 times more deaths than yesterday’s total (given at 10AM today AEST), and you’ll still be saying it’s nothing.

            61

            • #
              Chad

              Well it took a little finding,..but here to jog your memory…

              #
              WXcycles
              April 2, 2020 at 9:22 am ·
              ….., on the current growth path factor of 1.327, on the 10th of April the UK reaches ~10,000 deaths in a single day. Just 24 hrs later on the 11th of April, it’s 13,000 die in the UK in a single day.

              ..and as i pointed out at the time , it was a rediculous suggestion with no common sense applied.
              But, if you are saying you just post this stuff to scare people, knowing that it will never happen, then you should take a good look in the mirror if you think YOUR posts are going to influence the behaviour of anyone , let alone the greater population..

              00

      • #
        James Murphy

        I’d like to see the number of people tested, or number of people testing ‘negative’, so as to have an idea if the new case rate it related to testing, or, more to the point, a lack of it. I guess I’m not the only one to say this…

        10

    • #
      WXcycles

      Looks like Italy was at least partly residual noise as it is 12.47% today. But there’s a slowing trend in this percentage as well so probably noise and some slowing.

      00

  • #
    Tim

    At 15c a dose it won’t be approved. Big pharma will ensure it fails in trials

    Only a new paternable drug wil be allowed to work

    61

    • #
      Peter C

      Unfair to big pharma. What would we have without them?

      20

      • #
        Peter C

        Or put it this way.
        What would we not have, which we currently have, in terms of essential drugs if we did not have Big Pharma?

        They have been a source for good since they came into existence after WW2. Penicillin started it. Howard Florey tried to make it in jars at Oxford Uni , but he could not make enough, Not nearly enough! The job was turned over to breweries in the USA.

        In 1941, he and Chain treated their first patient, Albert Alexander, who had had a small sore at the corner of his mouth, which then spread, leading to a severe facial infection involving streptococci and staphylococci. His whole face, eyes and scalp were swollen to the extent that he had had an eye removed to relieve the pain. Within a day of being given penicillin, he started to recover. However, the researchers did not have enough penicillin to help him to a full recovery, and he relapsed and died.

        20

  • #
    DOC

    Wonder if they’ve checked out arsenic yet.

    02

    • #
      Doc

      Arsenic has been around for 2300+ years. Initially apparently a poison of choice, being tasteless, colourless and odourless, it was used in the 19-20th centuries as treatment for syphilis, and as a sheep dip for lice
      It’s as worthwhile a look as anything else when, for all the modern smarts, a lot of funds have gone into
      looking for antivirals without much to show for it.

      10

  • #
  • #
    Rocket Rod

    So…anyone want to address the Euromomo Eurozone mortality data as originally noted by Bruce Parr (he beat me to posting it)

    A nice infographic that shows where a history of deadliest pandemics:

    CDC Tells Hospitals: No Test Needed, Just List CV-19 As Cause Of Death

    Or maybe this?

    India has developed a vaccine
    The vaccine-making company Bharat Biotech has developed a vaccine to fight the coronavirus. Giving information, the chairman of the company, Dr Krishna Alla, has told that the country has developed its own vaccine to fight the coronavirus. This is the first vaccine in the country which is completely successful in preventing coronavirus infection. This vaccine is named Coro-Vac. This virus will be put into the nose for prevention. The drug is so effective that it can be used even if there is a common flu.

    Hmmm…snow coming…back to climate issues. Something actually important…

    20

  • #
    Another Ian

    Maybe the “new corona cocktail – gin and tonic with an ivomectin chaser?

    20

  • #
    DonS

    Well Jo, another day another unscientifically proven “cure”. Are we keeping count? I think I’ve heard of at least 12 possible cures. The most likely treatment prospects are still undergoing proper clinical trials and if successful may be approved in what, 6 months?

    All these chemicals that kill the virus in a test tube may be useful in a solution used to decontaminate surfaces but the idea of people drinking them is frankly loony tunes!

    Kerosene probably kills the virus in a test tube but I wouldn’t run around promoting it as a cure. Although with the looming grog shortage….no just kidding, don’t drink Kero, it will kill you. Although like the boob who drank the fish tank cleaner you will never have to worry about the virus, or anything else, forever!

    25

    • #
      Brian the Engineer

      Ivermectin is safe to try as already in use for other diseases.
      Kerosene is not safe to ingest.
      We know that already, so I don’t see your point.
      No reason not to try on people already infected.
      I it doesn’t work no loss if it does work yeha

      80

    • #
      Peter C

      Pointless comment which runs off at a tangent.

      41

    • #

      DonS, so I was right — all along I said there would be many options and anti-virals would be much more likely to save us, not vaccines. I haven’t reported on all the possibilities. There are so many.

      But as I said in the post, this drug is already given to children. We know the safety profile. We have mass production. This could be a gamechanger fast. (Or it might be useless, as I also said).

      Biotech will rescue us, and the incredible side effect is suddenly we find out that there are many anti-viral potential agents. Why didn’t we hear about them before?

      100

  • #
    DOC

    Still hanging out for the trial results for hydroxychloroquine. Gone a bit quiet lately, even
    with so many doctors and people using it professionally and personally. Also be interested to ensure
    that any side effects are reported and revealed.

    20

    • #
      Peter C

      Yes,

      The delay in starting and reporting trials is frustrating.

      20

    • #
      el gordo

      Looks okay.

      ‘Common hydroxychloroquine side effects may include: headache, dizziness, ringing in your ears; nausea, vomiting, stomach pain; loss of appetite, weight loss; mood changes, feeling nervous or irritable; skin rash or itching; or hair loss.’

      30

      • #
        doc

        There is a known problem, even if ‘less common’, of cardiac problems of which dizziness can be a symptom.
        I’m not crucifying the drug, just like being more complete rather than overselling, especially when COVID-19 (initially?) seemed to be
        mainly lethal to ‘older’ people. They are the most likely to have cardiac and hypertensive problems already, taking medications to treat them.
        There was a murmuring recently about ACE inhibitors being a little negative with COVID-19.

        The virus uses ACE2 receptors to enter the cell, but ACE2 apparently breakS down angiotensin2 (the product of angiotensin1 from ACE1)
        and those products have supportive effects for the pulmonary circulation. It appears one research team has antibodies which jump on the virus
        and make it too big to pass down that usual channel into the cell. That’s instead of blocking ACE2 receptors. It’s also about drug interactions!

        Interestingly, ‘old’ now equals over 60yo. That has very interesting implications for the way society looks at many people, possibly on this
        blog – apart from we ‘ancients’ – in the future. The expendables?

        That seems to be the argument of those that heavily criticise the current government actions. Even having hospital systems overwhelmed, like
        the Spain and Italy disasters, is not enough to have them look closer. Sweden is said to be now facing the outcome, in deaths, from their method
        of largely ignoring the virus and seeking herd immunity.
        They refuse to assess why Britain changed from that path so quickly when the ensuing death rate obviously was put to the politicians.
        They refuse to realise that this virus is taking over ALL hospital systems, especially ICU, which means those beds are excluded from use
        by all those other people that would normally be treated and saved in them. Maybe such deaths should also be added to the deaths from the
        virus for a truer picture. The virus has cancelled all elective surgery surgery that may be the way, for some, of getting back to work.

        Those that see the economy as the prime thing to save, seem to prefer that we have the Spanish experience of hauling the dead out from their
        homes in body bags as the new normal. They also don’t take account of the fact getting over this virus is a long process; a month off work from
        their precious economy. They also ignore that this virus is a silent disease spreading itself before coming into the open. That makes more testing
        for both antigens and antibodies crucial to control it. That requires we get control of it’s rampage before we can neutralise it. They also
        miss the point that with their policy, if the health system is already over-run while we control the numbers, what would it look like if
        the virus was given their free run as ‘just another annual flue outbreak? IT WOULD MAKE TODAY’S SCENARIO LOOK LIKE A PICNIC!

        10

        • #
          farmerbraun

          Being “old” does not necessarily make you “non-essential”.
          Being young or not at risk does not make you “essential”

          Superannuitants (65+) who continue working in essential industries while being NET taxpayers
          are , in the meantime , able to be classified as “essential”.

          It also appears that “essential industry ” workers who test + for Covid , whatever that means , can be compulsorily reclassified as “non -essential”.

          10

      • #
        Clyde Spencer

        El Gordo
        The label on my prescription container specifically warns about mental conditions — changes in mood and possibly suicide. There is also a warning about exposure to sunlight. My rheumatologist was most concerned about changes in color vision and had me take a battery of vision tests to establish a baseline. I immediately saw a rise in systolic BP and started having problems with my legs; I have been off the medication almost a year and a half and still cannot squat without pain.

        Overall, I think that people are being too cavalier about the known and varied side-effects.

        00

    • #
      JanEarth

      Doc early trials in China showed it is of little use. The problem seems to be the dose to treat the CCP virus is higher than the usual dose to treat autoimmune diseases. In short to therapeutic dose is very close to the toxic dose. Patients being treated with it did very poorly and trials were stopped. That was data from the CCP so make what you want with it.

      Even if hydroxychloroquine works it will only be given to sick people and it will be in short supply because demand will skyrocket, but only if it works. There would be thousands of Australians that already depend on this medication to control their autoimmune disease, mainly Rheumatoid Arthritis and Lupus. For me it was pretty useless.

      Because a vaccine is very unlikely in the near future, or at all for that matter, the treatment will be a drug cocktail, similar to the way we treat AIDS. That cocktail may contain hydroxychloroquine or it may not. Time will tell.

      I have a bottle of 100 Plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine) that expired in 2018… it is going in the bin. I can easily get another script but I am not going to bother as I believe this is a red herring.

      Eyes open… Be safe

      10

      • #

        Be wary of Chinese studies. One junk Chinese study on a tiny sample showed HCQ was no better than “regular treatment” — but you had to read the fine print to discover the sample was so small, there was almost no way they could get a statistically significant result (almost a design feature?) The fine print also admitted that their regular treatment used two anti-HIV drugs. So this was not a fair comparison of ICU with HCQ compared to ICU without HCQ.

        The CCP are not interested in your welfare.

        100

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Jo, I wonder how many are interested in any individual’s welfare. it’s not just the CCP but everyone who wants to carve out a reputation from this crisis.

          Look, Monsanto knew that Roundup was deadly and kept selling it. It was a big money maker for them. Tobacco was such a big money maker, what’s better than addicting customers to your product? The fight to fix that is a legend in jurisprudence and tobacco won.

          You can directly transfer that personal benefit over basic responsibility, honesty,and decency to any one. Most will do it right but some will not. And how do you tell who is doing it wrong until it’s too late?

          The snake oil salesman is as old as the human race.

          40

  • #
    JanEarth

    For everyone wondering what is happening in China you could access NTD news. They have a show called China in focus which is worth subscribing to in YouTube. NTD have extensive contacts in China and are determined to report the truth about China. The following Cut n Paste is from their website ” NTD is a New York-based global news and entertainment media, founded in 2001. Consistently ranked among the top 10 digital news and media properties in the world, NTD engages audiences by creating and curating content on digital platforms that revolve around information, inspiration, and positivity.”

    The organization is based in New York. Well worth a look folks, especially those that want a clearer picture of what the CCP is up to.

    Eyes open…be safe

    10

  • #
    JanEarth

    We have a big problem.

    This is going to last a very long time. I read in the MSM today that modelling shows that for a lock down to be effective it should last 12 to 18 months. I know that computer models are not a favourite here in Boomer central but this is a simple modelling exercise compared to the wicked complexities involved in climate modelling.

    People are literally losing their minds. We have people screaming at the elderly, other morons pushing past barricades and assaulting fellow shoppers, idiots continuing to hoard toilet paper and shop staff being assaulted both verbally and physically and this is on a daily basis. It’s only been a few weeks can you even imagine what it would be like after 12 months? I can and it is not a nice picture.

    I am ashamed of my generation. We are a bunch of soft, entitled, weak minded morons. What worse is that we have brought up our children to be even worse. For God’s sake please try and get a grip people.

    Look we are all going to die. Such is life. Why we are all acting as if we are immortal is beyond me. We need to stop spending 80% of the health budget on the last two years of life. A good start would be to triage the ventilators…stop putting 75+ year old’s on ventilators when the chances of them even surviving let alone enjoying any quality of life after is virtually zero. I however have no faith that we are even capable of making these hard decisions as even the conservatives among us are weak minded soft bleeding hearts. That Spanish doctor crying like a baby because they had to triage the ventilators is indicative of where we are as a generation. That should have been a logical decision to make and he should have taken it on the chin and made that hard decision without the hand wringing teeth gnashing display of emotion he showed.The generation that lived through the great depression and WW2 would not even have blinked an eye at this.The generation that went through the additional hell of WW1 would probably just give us a clip around the ear.

    Toughen up people because this is going to get a lot worse and it is going to last a long time. The only other option is to adopt the Swedish model… I am starting to think this is the only option because we just can’t handle what is required.

    Eyes open… Be safe

    16

    • #
      PeterS

      I think your crustal ball is broken. Get a new one just in case. In any case time will tell if that’s all true or just one big exaggeration. No one really knows and anyone who says they do is BSing.

      40

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        I’ve been looking in my crystal ball Peter
        :-)
        I predict that we will be gradually emerging from this lockdown
        Here in Australia In early May.
        As new COVID 19 infections drop to zero in many parts of the country
        There will be no reason to maintain them in those regions/states.
        And as that happens across the country more regions/states
        Will join the Corona 19 FREE ZONE.

        Overseas the picture will vary from country to country
        And continent to continent.
        The quarantine restrictions should only be lowered
        If they are ‘Corona 19 FREE ZONES’.

        50

        • #
          PeterS

          Sounds reasonable and hope it comes true for us here in Australia.

          20

        • #
          PeterS

          BTW, I lost my crystal ball some time ago. Was it you that found it? :-)

          20

        • #
          JanEarth

          Bill I would get another crystal ball if I were you… Yours is probably one of those cheap Chinese ones.

          14

          • #
            Peter C

            If you really ae going to throw out your time expired Plaquenil, please send them here to me.

            I would be happy to have a supply, even old stuff. I would probably take them prophylactically ie as a preventative. I took them for years in PNG and did not get any side effects. Nor did I get Malaria.

            40

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              Hi Peter,

              if I had spent nearly a month in PNG fifty years ago what would I have been on for malaria.

              Pills or injection?

              The old ladies where I was staying were on something called Booai and seemed very relaxed.

              KK ug

              00

        • #
          farmerbraun

          What’s the weather like next month Bill?

          00

      • #
        JanEarth

        Not my crusty old ball mate…just relaying the news. The last time they relaxed lock down too early…sometime around 1919… it did not turn out well. I hope they do not make the same mistake again.

        Don’t count those chickens too early, prepare for the worst that way it does not matter if you are right or wrong in your prognostications you will be happy with the outcome.

        Eyes open… Be safe

        22

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      I don’t know how old you are babe but don’t include me in “your” generation.

      This is about ugly self absorbed politics and there are enough of those manipulative types in every generation.

      If you are going to blame some group within society then do some work first and get it right.

      KK

      20

      • #
        JanEarth

        My Apologies Keith for my sweeping generalization. I just witnessed a boomer verbally assaulting an elderly woman because according to the idiot she had “pushed in ” I just had to vent some residual rage that I did not completely get rid of after I told the moron what for.

        BTW Keith I did not know you were gay…. not that there is anything wrong with that. I have never been addressed by another man as Babe before and I am somewhat flattered. Oh and FYI I was born in 1956. That makes me a Boomer.

        Eyes open… Be safe

        04

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      The only other option is to adopt the Swedish model…

      No…the hybrid model involves isolating the vulnerable and those with existing health problems only…This has not bee tried yet and makes more sense than total or no lockdown.

      10

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        ….forgot to add my disclaimer that this is ‘my non expert opinion’ just in case anyone makes the mistake of thinking i am a gifted qualified epidemiologist.

        10

      • #
        JanEarth

        Environment Skeptic I see your point and concede it is a good one. The only issue I have is how do you decide who is vulnerable ? More reports are coming in that young people are dying albeit in low numbers but more worrying to me is that survivors of all ages are suffering disabilities as a result. Apparently neurological damage is a nasty side effect from the CCP virus. Bad enough for someone my age to deal with that but way worse for someone in their 20′s or younger.

        Anyway we will have good reliable data soon so lets not count our chickens yet. I for one will be extremely happy if everything I have posted here in the last few days comes to nothing.

        Cheers :)

        30

    • #

      That Spanish doctor crying like a baby because they had to triage the ventilators is indicative of where we are as a generation.

      Perhaps a bit harsh? That Spanish doctor has spent years trying to keep people alive. We selected people like him to be doctors and expect them to treat life as sacred and worth saving. He’s exactly the kind of doctor we want. He’s just been dumped in a war zone. He’ll remember some of those faces that he chose not to save, and they will haunt him. Empathy, a gift and a curse.

      We need Generals in a War, but we don’t want them to be our doctors in peacetime.

      30

    • #
      farmerbraun

      I’m the upvote. The only one at the time I posted this.

      00

    • #
      farmerbraun

      Doctors were told at the outset – 12 months , sometimes relaxed to level 3 , but back to Level 4 regularly.

      00

    • #
      Raving

      A simple epidemic model is completely inappropriate.. It is based on one person infecting Ro more people who each go on it infect another Ro people and on and on …

      This doesn’t even approximate what is happening in real life. Old people in assisted living homes and in cruise vacations are getting infected. They are dropping dead in far greater numbers than beach partygoers.

      Winter vacationing healthcare workers are visiting and cross contaminating between multiple nursing homes.
      Some people need to always go to work riding public transport. People follow a familiar route and routine

      Most of the works population is practicing strict social distancing.

      This is nothing similar to a ‘simple’ model of spreading infection

      00

  • #
    TdeF

    WHO did nothing. They also ignored the report from Taiwan. That is criminal. Two months wasted. If America had been warned formally by WHO in December, it would have moved with incredible speed. The doors would have been slammed all over teh world.

    It is not for WHO to be ignorant and slow and politically sensitive on pandemics. It is there to prevent pandemics. WHO has proven to be utterly political, serving its Chinese masters. And the failure has devastated many countries will have killed hundreds of thousands of people who need not have died. We are talking a Nuremberg trial, not a slap over the wrist.

    110

    • #
      TdeF

      That was meant to be earlier.

      Anyway, we are nearly under 100 new cases across Australia today. 102.

      A drop of 39 from yesterday. Hopefully 60 tomorrow and 20 the next day and then I am opening my isolation champagne! Single digits.

      This is not a system where you expect noise. Once it is gone, it will not pop up anywhere, or it would have done so.

      Then we hope those people who are still infected are completely clear by the end of the month and it is over. We can get back to our lives, albeit without quick trips to Bali, Burma or Bermuda. It’s Brighton, Brisbane and Burny.

      40

      • #
        JanEarth

        Tdef

        Your bloody dreaming mate.

        12

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Nahhhhh Jan !
          TdeF’s and my crystal balls are far more evidence based
          And accurate than your prognostications..
          (Or should we say ‘Horror movie’ ?)

          No Peter, mine is mine..
          Had it a long time in the cupboard
          But got it out and gave it a well informed ‘polish’ yesterday…

          :-)

          21

          • #
            JanEarth

            Oh dear poor Bill… thinks his brain droppings are “evidence” At least I admitted my thoughts were my own and not “evidence”. We do have evidence that early exit from a lock down leads to a nasty spike. It happened during the 1918 flu epidemic. And once again this was modelling reported in the MSM. Not even my thoughts to be honest.

            Being on lock down is a horror movie…Really ?? Thanks for backing up my thoughts that this country is overwhelmed with soft male chickens. Or maybe you were referring to my musings that the CCP was going to fall…. you must be a commie then. Maybe I should refer to you as Commie Bob in future.

            Do you know how much I care how long this lasts… a hint not much ! Me and the Family are fine. I however am fascinated by what is happening and looking forward to how we deal with it.

            Eyes open… Be safe.

            15

        • #
          farmerbraun

          I see that you speak Strine. I speak newZild , plus some pidgin variations. You’re making very good sense.

          00

      • #
        Annie

        TdeF, will leave the champers for a while but am enjoying a bit of medicinal Pink Gin!

        40

        • #
          TdeF

          Enjoy. With a good tonic water. Insurance with quinine.

          I however have champagne withdrawal symptoms. And the effectiveness of the lockdown while predictable is the first time in my life I have seen the whole of society cooperate for the common good. And so successfully. Stunning. The death of a plague and the major complaint I read and hear is boredom! Happy days, if that is the only problem, considering the alternative.

          10

      • #
        Chad

        TdF,
        We could be at zero new cases tomorrow…… if they do zero tests !!
        When will you learn to check how many tests are done to produce those “ new cases” ?
        Yesterday..NSW “ new cases” down 33%…….testing down 33%. !!
        Get the idea ?

        40

        • #
          TdeF

          I understand your point. I just disagree.

          I assume reported cases are part of the obligatory reporting of contagion and while connected to confirmation testing, people will report sick to a hospital or doctor with symptoms like fever and a dry cough and a metallic taste and they are tested. These are your 102 reported cases and legally mandated reporting is done, presumably by doctors as with all major diseases. Any major infectious disease like tuberculosis or measles or even scabies has to be reported. Maybe many more.

          It is also likely that a rapid response team investigates every infection to track the path of the patient over the previous ten days to test contacts, family, workmates, friends or public transport and do their best to close down any infection path through this one victim. Each person has been infected by someone else and has infected other people. They have to connect these people and find the primary source geographically. As the numbers dwindle, this might be as simple as a passenger on the Ruby Princess, but if it is a new source they have a lot of work to do to close down this path.

          And I do not expect mass testing to be discovering the virus randomly, so it is not proportional to testing, the concept that the virus is already rampant in the community. As seems to be your thesis.

          10

          • #
            TdeF

            So as numbers pass under 100, I expect the bulk of the testing is related to the biggest virus pool, that of known people in hospital or in isolation and the associated carers or medical staff or even service people. It is essential that people directly connected to infected people are continually tested. And they must be given every form of protection such as increased immunity with the tuberculosis innoculation and any preventative medication. Otherwise not only will they be sick, they will themselves start a new contagion.

            Yes, the number of people being tested will drop as it focuses on already infected people, not the population at large. Even so we have the greatest amount of testing per head of population in the world. I know of the arrival of 500,000 testing kits just ten days ago. We must not let this escape again and wait it out. It may not be alive, but we do not want it to survive extermination by isolation.

            10

            • #
              TdeF

              And repeated testing of all medical people and such varied people as baggage handlers, taxi drivers, aircraft staff and pilots, kitchen staff, cleaners. Anyone essential who comes into contact with a lot of people, especially infected people. These are often essential people who by definition cannot self isolate. Even visitors to places where infected people can touch surfaces. It is real sleuthing to make sure this invisible menace does not escape.

              They are doing a great job. Unless as you suggest, there is a pool of unknown infected people. That would last no more than eight days before it was reported and everyone tested. So I have confidence in the numbers.

              10

          • #
            Chad

            I assume reported cases are part of the obligatory reporting of contagion and while connected to confirmation testing, people will report sick to a hospital or doctor with symptoms like fever and a dry cough and a metallic taste and they are tested. These are your 102 reported cases and legally mandated reporting is done,

            So, youare suggesting the “new cases” are just from people “self reporting” because they feel unwell ?? And none of them being infected but without symptoms ?
            Im sure you do not really believe that !

            00

            • #
              farmerbraun

              It’s called the suspension of disbelief. It has frequently been fatal , but now looks contagious as well.

              00

    • #
      PeterS

      I think we all agree WHO is a “broken” organisation. I could use stronger words than “broken” but I would most likely be moderated for doing so. They are politically motivated.

      50

  • #
    JanEarth

    Jo I am well aware of that. But we also cannot toss everything out that comes from them because the baby may go out with the bathwater. The way I see it the CCP has nothing to gain from this because if it does work we will soon know and India is quite capable of producing this stuff at the volumes required.

    Everything I am seeing at the moment is telling me that the CCP is hanging on by the skin of their teeth. The Chinese people have had enough of the lies and the bullying and the self serving cronies of the CCP. It’s only a matter of time now.

    And old Chinese curse says ” May you live in interesting times” Well the CCP has found themselves in very interesting times indeed.

    Long live the revolution !

    Eyes open… Be safe

    60

  • #
    Another Ian

    Careful with the hopes on ivermectin – we might be courting another trade supply problem.

    I just read the container and Merial Ivomec is made in New Zealand!

    41

  • #
    PTR

    Well, is no need to quote a specific source, just google it; tiger in a zoo in the Bronx has been diagnosed with the virus. Hmmm, is perhaps time to go back to the drawing board

    30

    • #
      JanEarth

      PTR I saw that…my thoughts were does this mean that all Felines are vulnerable ? If so that means we would have another vector to worry about :(

      20

      • #

        There are reports of pet cats and dogs with this, but they are not common and I’ve not heard of any from italy. One dog diagnosed in China, and one in northern Europe. Now this tiger. Kitten reported dying with Covid patient in Wuhan. Chinese people in some counties behaved as though they felt pets were a threat to them, killing them in the street. We don’t know if that was an irrational overreaction.

        If it came from bats, via pangolins and can infect cats and dogs then what about other mammals — even agricultural ones? Still so much to learn which is why I said in Feb, stop the flights. Hammer it until we know it isn’t worth hammering, then pull the stops off as soon as we understand the enemy and the cost.

        We can’t put the genie back in if it can get loose in the mammal world. That said, it would be unusual and rare, and is probably unlikely that the tiger/cat/dog could shed active virus to spread it. No evidence of animal to human transmission (apart from the possible first round which may have been “assisted” in Wuhan.)

        40

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          (apart from the possible first round which may have been “assisted” in Wuhan.)

          A very real possibility when the Chinese Communist Party is around.

          Watch this space.

          00

    • #
      Clyde Spencer

      Something that rarely gets talked about is false-positives and false-negatives. Is it possible that a test intended for humans might have a different sensitivity in animals and be more prone to false-positives?

      20

  • #
    JanEarth

    Damn Boris is in hospital. I hope he does OK as I have grown quite fond of him over the last few years. His appearances in Have I Got News For You are some of the best, only eclipsed by Brian Blessed. Worth a watch if you like a good laugh. Just put in ‘HIGNFY Boris’ in the YouTube search. From memory Boris compered 3 Episodes.

    Nice to see Old Liz put some backbone into the English. She is from the tough generation and I for one am glad we still have her around to remind us that if we stay resolute and look after each other we can overcome virtually anything that comes our way. I doffs me cap to ya Liz :)

    80

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    The herd immunity idea is producing results
    401 people dead !
    40 deaths per million Swedes.
    At a rate higher per million than the USA !

    Just for comparison Australia has 2 deaths per million !
    Clearly Australia is doing something RIGHT !
    While Sweden has stuffed up BADLY

    I think we will see either change of policy soon
    Or a change of government !

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

    30

    • #
      JanEarth

      Don’t hold your breath Commie Bob

      11

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Good grief !
      We have a couple of Herd Immunity fanatics in our midst !

      Doesn’t matter how many die.
      It’s good for the nation type of logic.
      Bugger !

      31

      • #
        JanEarth

        I hope you are not counting me into that crowd Bill. I just think that stopping the lock down to early is akin to the Swedish solution i.e. a wee bit crazy.

        10

  • #
    Peter C

    Australian New Cases have been falling for 8 straight days.

    According to the site that TdeF suggests, the new cases in Australia peaked between 25 Mar and 28 Mar. The new cases have been falling since 28 March with 106 new cases today (ends 5pm).
    https://infogram.com/1p7ve7kjeld1pebz2nm0vpqv7nsnp92jn2x?live

    Hopefully our government is starting to look at when and how we can reopen our economy.

    Social distancing has been remarkably successful, despite the few people who have broken the rules.

    Wide spread use of masks, hand sanitiser and social distancing might mean we can start to lift some restrictions very soon. I hope!

    Ok, we still don’t have masks (except make your own) or hand sanitiser but surely our supply chain will be up to the task very soon.

    30

    • #
      JanEarth

      Peter C this could just be an artifact of the border closures or it could be a sign the lock down is working. We have yet to see a peak in community transmission and winter has not started.

      More data will determine what happens. I hope we do get to point where the lock down can be relaxed safely without risk of a spike.

      Cheers :)

      30

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Until we have random testing, all else is mere speculation…in my non expert opinion (IMNEO)…just in case anyone here makes the mistake of thinking i am a gifted epidemiologist.

        40

        • #
          Peter C

          E S,

          I agree . The tests so far has been too restricted to give a full picture of this Covid19 disease
          So far I think testing involves people who have returned from overseas, plus Cruise ships and Health Workers, Probably others have been missed. How many?

          Social lockdown should not be relaxed until some key health issues are in place:
          1. More testing,
          2. Masks
          3. PPE for health workers.

          It is truly shocking to me that the Health Minister said 4 weeks ago that we were well prepared for a pandemic!

          10

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            For example, with such information we could even find a hypothetical number/postulate who nation wide percentage wise are already infected.. It might even show most have already developed antibodies….IMNEO (in my non expert opinion)
            who knows??

            So no random testing results so far?

            20

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        So was random testing being employed to keep track of the true numbers in general?

        If not,…surely statistics 101 would be to get a proper representative random sample of those already infected….with our without medical outcomes.!

        20

    • #
      Chad

      According to the site that TdeF suggests, the new cases in Australia peaked between 25 Mar and 28 Mar. The new cases have been falling since 28 March with 106 new cases today

      Peter C……. Daily testing quantities have also been falling since the 28th March !!
      WHY ??

      10

      • #
        TdeF

        Because testing is not random any longer as the field narrows and it is more focused. And we have already tested more people per capita than any other country. Please read the comments at #38 and following.

        10

        • #
          TdeF

          And possibly also because everyone with a runny nose is not turning up at the local hospital demanding testing. Nor are the GPS sending them there. The symptoms are much better established, so no fever, no Wuhan virus.

          I also note that WHO has been successful in hiding the Wuhan origins of the virus by branding it COVID-19. I prefer the blame to stick with the creators of this monster, whether the alleged wet markets or the Wuhan Institute of Virology who are known to have created exactly this virus in 2017. They say it could not possibly have escaped. And we believe them.

          50

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          Sorry….

          Because testing is not random any longer

          Links? When was testing “random”?

          For the ‘non expert opinion’ demographic.

          10

        • #
          Chad

          Because testing is not random any longer as the field narrows and it is more focused. And we have already tested more people per capita than any other country.

          The testing has NEVER been random, ….always focused on the high risk subjects, such as health care workers, ER presentations, known contacts, etc etc .
          And there has been a continual cry for more test kits as it was limiting the amount of tests possible.
          How can you ignore the obvious link between the number of positive tests and the actual sample size. ?.. that is totally unscientific and illogical.
          It may have escaped your notice , but the “peak “ of “new cases”. Corresponds with the maximum daily testing rate !….and that test rate has reduced constantly since then
          The fact that we are doing a lot of testing has been spruked as one of the keys to success in controlling the virus, so, iask again , why start reducing the testing now ?

          30

          • #
            TdeF

            Correlation is not causality. There are not more cases because there is more testing.

            Given there have been over 260,000 tests and only 5,000 cases, 98% of testing was negative.

            Conversely there are not cases being missed because there is less testing, as you imply. It is simply more focused now. And as new cases drop to zero, the only reservoir of the virus is in the known and documented infected population and those in direct contact with the infected people or their environment. Unless you know otherwise.

            Then if somehow, somewhere and against all expectations a new case of corona virus pops up unexpectedly and without connection to existing cases, I expect there will be a panic to lock the area down and trace the infection and test everyone. It only takes one person to break personal isolation now obligatory for all new arrivals. Until proven otherwise. I cannot see how the Wuhan virus can hide in the community. Maybe there is a typhoid Mary somewhere, a permanent asymptomatic carrier. I hope not.

            11

            • #
              Chad

              TdeF
              April 6, 2020 at 11:53 pm ·
              Correlation is not causality. There are not more cases because there is more testing.

              Then i must conclude that your understanding of statistics and sampling methodology, is enem more rudimentary than my own !
              But consider this..
              No testing =. No positive test results
              100% testing = much more accurate estimate of % +ve results.
              However, even 100% testing will not reveal 100% of all cases as the tests are not 100% accurate and would need to all be done at the exact same time (impossible) to prevent cross infection during the testing period.
              Likewise 100% testing with zero +ve tests will not reveal some cases.

              11

              • #
                WXcycles

                The theoretical point of an isolation or ‘lock down’ is to eliminate such community spreading. i.e. wide spread testing may not be necessary if isolation works and cases can be detected in homes via sick people asking for medical assistance.

                I would say there’s zero chance of QLD’s isolation working unless there’s almost no virus present within the community (fortunately it appears that’s the case so far). Yesterday I watched 4 large workers, 3 male and 1 female at a building site across the road sit in a small box trailer under a tree, loudly talking and laughing for over an hour. If one of them had the virus it’s likely they all have it now. People are not taking the need to isolate seriously so we may get a second wave of community spread if the virus is still present.

                A second wave would be much more damaging for the economy, society and medical system. And so much harder to find the source of and isolate it, leading to further areas isolation to come. We would need a strongly enforced isolation to stop community spread at that point, because the testing numbers will never be enough to detect it all in time.

                You talk about 100% testing, but where is this possible? And what labs exist which can test and report on 25 million people within 24 to 48 hours? Nowhere! It’s a fantasy, but you keep on pushing it. What we have is what’s possible and it is still producing reporting bottlenecks – so get real!

                What I have found from looking at the dismal data we have, is that the COVID-19′s death curve closely mirrors the COVID-19 confirmed cases curve – globally. And both are now falling synchronously, in parallel, as isolation policies slow down the growth. And apparently when the growth slows the hospitals can grow capacity faster, thus more people tend to live.

                https://i.ibb.co/Hz3rtxW/Case-and-died-curves-4th-April.png

                So keeping the hospitals fully functional is a really, really good idea. The thing that provided this is isolation.

                And that relationship between these two curves means the testing that’s been occurring is actually capturing and reflecting the incidence of symptomatic COVID-19 cases hat are presenting to hospitals – globally. So the indications are good that the current testing does reflect the real levels of disease within the community being tested.

                What’s not known is what the proportions of the unseen disease is (i.e. how many are asymptomatic spreaders). But as long as they’re in isolation for a month this doesn’t even matter, as the virus will burn itself out to the degree which social isolation is being complied with!

                Otherwise the isolation and cost and testing has all been for nothing.

                So I’m not even slightly interested by your constant barbs about the testing numbers and lack of random community sampling. And if you’re really concerned about it, then go make a case to the respective state health departments, not here. As those concerns are in effect completely irrelevant for the current course purposes of the data. Plus the cases numbers curve is paralleling the death curve, and those active cases which died are a known quantity.

                As for your comments two day back about cases with a gunshot to the head, or a car accident fatality, plus an active case of COVID-19 did not die of COVID-19, those are extreme examples which apply to almost but not quite none (if not actually none) of the current ~6,000 cases in Australia. So such points are just more irrelevant over-reaching guff.

                All we need to know is if active COVID-19 cases are dying at an EXPONENTIALLY INCREASING RATE as a whole.

                That’s it Chad! That’s all we need to know, in order to make the right rational choices.

                So I don’t care in the slightest about your sundry irrelevant puritanical statistical points or barbs. The numbers we have are perfectly adequate to reveal where the disease is, and to decide what to do to disrupt any exponential growth present. It is adequate for the intended purpose. And the isolation policy is sufficient for the purposes of ending residual community spreading.

                Which means random sampling of the whole community is not only impossible to physically achieve, within any useful time frame, it’s also rendered unnecessary.

                That’s what’s already occurring.

                00

              • #
                Chad

                You talk about 100% testing, but where is this possible? And what labs exist which can test and report on 25 million people within 24 to 48 hours? Nowhere! It’s a fantasy, but you keep on pushing it. ..

                If you bothered to read and comprehend. (Rather than jump to your own misunderstanding)…you may have realised that i said 100% testing was “impossible”, ..and ineffective .
                And i do not “keep on pushing it”
                I used it as an extreme example to show the direct linkage between daily testing rate and the reported “new cases” which TdF and yourself refuses to accept .
                I wont bother to respond to the rest of your rant, since your final paragph confirms how little you understand of statistical analysis and sampling principles.

                Which means random sampling of the whole community is not only impossible to physically achieve, within any useful time frame, it’s also rendered unnecessary.

                The only way you can asess the presence of problems in a large population , is to perform a planned random sampling programme.

                00

  • #

    Invermectin was applied mechanically to the animals down a tube forced into their throat in a procedure called drenching. It was not included in a sheep dip,

    00

  • #
    Golfsailor

    Kids and dip and residue.

    I think it’s a better chance it has to do with melatonin. Kids produce a lot more and the older we get the less we produce after about ten years old. And that’s world wide no exception.

    Just a wild guess, someone wrote it had some connection with immune defense and if that’s true, why not. Just as wild as sheep dip.

    20

  • #
    Golfsailor

    Kids and dip and residue.

    I think it’s a better chance it has to do with melatonin. Kids produce a lot more and the older we get the less we produce after about ten years old. And that’s world wide no exception.

    Just a wild guess, someone wrote it had some connection with immune defense and if that’s true, why not. Just as wild as sheep dip.

    20

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    I am an advocate that we wear face masks but there is according to this article, a bit of a problem .

    Viruses can survive on the front side of face masks for up to 7 days !
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078511/coronavirus-can-remain-face-masks-week-study-finds

    10

    • #
      JanEarth

      Bill the trouble is if you touch the thing you gotta chuck it away. There are protocols for using them in hospital. I saw a lady in New York waiting in line for testing with a mask on. She was smoking a cigarette by pulling the mask down, taking a drag then putting the mask back on. Crazy stuff.

      Using them incorrectly is worse than not having one.

      10

    • #
      TdeF

      I know masks are for your protection, but they also stop infection from others. Dentists, surgeons wear them to protect themselves and their patients. There have been many times dealing with people who clearly had a cold and they just sneeze or cough over everyone. My sister in law as a GP says that sick people will often cough straight in her face. Who worries about the doctor?

      The curse of this virus is that you do not know you are infected and most are asymptomatic for a week.

      So you have to assume that the person opposite may have the virus. And if the person serving in a store has both a mask and gloves, you are both far better protected. And hopefully the mask is a complete waste of time and money. I read though that you have to be careful taking it off.

      20

  • #
    JanEarth

    More on the vaccine for the CCP virus

    This is an interview with Dr Paul Offit. Below is a cut n paste from Wikipedia.

    “Paul Allan Offit (born 27 March 1951) is an American pediatrician specializing in infectious diseases, vaccines, immunology, and virology. He is the co-inventor of a rotavirus vaccine. Offit is the Maurice R. Hilleman Professor of Vaccinology, Professor of Pediatrics at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Former Chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases (1992-2014), and the Director of the Vaccine Education Center at The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. He has been a member of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.[4] Offit is a Board Member of Every Child By Two[5] and a Founding Board Member of the Autism Science Foundation.

    Dr Offit is the scourge of anti vaxxers as he spends a lot of time debunking their lies with great effect.

    I will post the link below this post…I just wanted to give a heads up before putting the link post into moderation purgatory

    10

  • #
    JanEarth

    Why we should call it the CCP virus

    Here is a link from NTD the video starts at time stamp 3:40

    00

  • #
    TdeF

    There are quite misleading sensationalist headlines in the Australian. For example “Coronavirus: Fear of deadly surge at aged-care homes”

    It seems like the virus is somehow loose in the the community and randomly attacking aged care homes, putting thousands at risk. In fact what this story is about is the death of another patient at “Dorothy Henderson Lodge has 16 residents and five staff who have tested positive for coronavirus.”

    At the same time there was another death at an aged care home “a resident of Opal Care Bankstown aged-care facility.. There are now five cases ..including two residents and three staff members.”

    You would think the virus was jumping around uncontrolled, threatening all old people.

    In fact the health authorities are very aware of these infections and this is a case of two people, one aged 90 and the other 86 in two places where the infection is well known. The ‘surge’ is not of infections in all aged care facilities as implied. It is simply coincidence in tragic but not unexpected deaths in facilities known to be infected.

    Without knowing the source of these infections, I would suggest there was connection to the next generation back from cruises.

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      JanEarth

      Tdef that’s why I never watch MSN TV news anymore. It’s all new media for me these days.

      A lot of aged care facilities have casual staff and they will turn up sick because they have no leave. Hell even full time staff will do that. It’s bad enough in an office but in a care facilities it is down right irresponsible.

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        observa

        It’s bad enough in an office but in a care facilities it is down right irresponsible.

        The problem is like flu you’re contagious before the symptoms really strike hard so you can’t blame lowly paid aged care workers (many of them new arrivals) from going to work feeling a bit off colour or with a tickle in the throat or a sniffle presaging something more sinister particularly in winter flu season.

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          JanEarth

          Observa true but they quite often come in looking like death warmed up…it happens every winter. We have a problem with casual employment in aged care and I do not entirely blame the workers for it.

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    observa

    Well you can rule out remdesivir as our salvation so head lice or whatever it is.
    Not to worry as China has the problem licked with go hard go early lockdown.

    We only have 2 possibly 3 months at best to find a suitable treatment in Australia before the young and able revolt deciding the cure is worse than the disease and they’re fed up going stir crazy at home. There’ll be a mass breakout and civil disobedience organised on social media as the economic imperative outweighs the medical problem. Then it will be roll on the pandemic and survival of the fittest. That will occur sooner if the virus rears up again in China bankrupting the alternative view. With it the belief that Gummint can solve everyone’s problems all the time particularly with typical resort to the printing press. Not hard to be Father Xmas handing out somebody else’s IOUs.

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      JanEarth

      observa as Jo quite rightly reminded me you have to really take everything the CCP says with a good dose of scepticism especially when it comes to their ‘success’ with the CCP virus. Those photos could be fake.

      Winnie the Pooh has been seen in Beijing wearing a mask only a few days ago… why? Why did the CCP order 200,000 body bags from Taiwan recently ?? Why have 21 million phone accounts disappeared ??? Why are thousands of people queuing up to collect the ashes of loved ones ???? Maybe they are not telling the truth about their ‘success’ in fighting the CCP virus.

      We will never know the truth.

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      JanEarth

      Just checked your second link…that was CNN AKA the Clinton News Network. They have a vested interest in making Trump look bad.

      Speaking of Trump…if the Dems put up creepy demented Joe against him it will be hilarious. I seriously doubt that Biden can dress himself in the morning.

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    Red Edward

    “Aw…Sheep dip!”

    Benny Hill as McCloud in Murder On The Oregon Express. . .

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    Tom in Texas

    Looks ole unprepared and incompetent Australia is actually a world leader in handling the Coronavirus pandemic…

    And Jo please show them dang Sweden graph things again, are their number of new cases per day still growing? Them ICU beds are used up and them Swedes rioting in the streets?

    We do appreciate the more helpful and positive track of yer recent post here in ‘Merica though.

    Bob in Baltimore says “howdy!” Y’all be safe there Down Under ya’ hear!

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    Anton

    In case it’s not been posted here before: “The presence of a large reservoir of Sars-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb” – V.C.C. Cheng, S.K.P. Lau, P.C.Y. Wu & K.Y. Yuen (Hong Kong), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus as an Agent of Emerging and Reemerging Infection, in: Clinical Microbiology Reviews vol.20, p660-694 (2007).

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    William Astley

    We have solution to covid-19.

    The world developed and tested 5 antibodies for SARS. They are effective and safe for humans.

    Using the same technique that was used for Ebola those antibodies were evolved in a lab to enable them to attack covid-19.

    The antibodies that were developed to stop Ebola completely cured 96% of the deadly Ebola cases, used the same technique.

    A laboratory in the US run by Jacob Glanville that has six people has done this 4 weeks. It could have been done months earlier.

    As Glanville has stated it should not be possible for his lab to find the cure for covid-19 patients.

    The problem is the pharmaceutical companies make billions of dollars selling antivirals.

    Glanville has also developed a universal vaccine for influenza which would save millions of lives.

    Glanville is a real Tony Starks. He is the person who has made real contribution to both AI research (viruses) and the new field of synthetic engineering. Glanville is included in the NetFlix special Pandemic and the HBO special that discusses AI research and virus research.

    The HBO special on AIs said specifically that Glanville is not popular in the pharmaceutical industry because the techniques that he has developed would make it much easier, cheaper, and faster to develop and produce drugs. And the drugs in question would be much more effective.

    He is one of the altruistic people who does not care about money. He is difficult to deal with because he wants the covid antibodies to be available for the whole world. Same thing for the universal vaccine for influenza.

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    EasilySolved

    Looks like Boris is now in ICU. Hope he gets well soon and doesn’t get “got at”

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    phil redding

    Having spent many years mixed farming, raising crops and running sheep i would like to point out that “Ivermectin” is NOT used in sheep dip. As stated later in the article it is a component of sheep drench. Sheep dip is a term used to describe the activity of “physically dipping each animal “in a bath or spray containing chemicals that kill Lice, Keds and other blood sucking parasites on the animals body. It is carried out once a year within 3 weeks of shearing. Modern methods now use back lining to apply the chemical directly along the spine of the sheep that are loaded into a holding race therefore not forcing the sheep through a dip. This is a much faster and better way of performing this task.

    Drenching sheep is also done in a holding race were the animals are tightly held in a long line and the operator moves down the race while placing a drench gun nozzle into the sheeps throat then squeezing the trigger which injects a controlled quantity of product directly into the animals gut, thus killing the internal parasites. So if sheep dip is applied by a drench gun the animal will be poisoned and die.

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    ren

    A general principle of passive antibody therapy is that it is more effective when used for prophylaxis than for treatment of disease. When used for therapy, antibody is most effective when administered shortly after the onset of symptoms. The reason for temporal variation in efficacy is not well understood but could reflect that passive antibody works by neutralizing the initial inoculum, which is likely to be much smaller than that of established disease (5). Another explanation is that antibody works by modifying the inflammatory response, which is also more easily achieved during the initial immune response, a stage that may be asymptomatic (6). As an example, passive antibody therapy for pneumococcal pneumonia was most effective when administered shortly after the onset of symptoms, and there was no benefit if antibody administration was delayed past the third day of disease (7).
    https://www.jci.org/articles/view/138003

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    ren

    Observations may indicate that in countries where there was mandatory vaccination against tuberculosis, the epidemic is not growing rapidly.

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    How long will it be before some unfortunate sod drinks sheep drench like the man who drank fish tank cleaner?”

    Unfortunately a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

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    How long will it be before some unfortunate sod drinks sheep drench like the man who drank fish tank cleaner.

    I’d call it ‘natural selection’ rather than ‘unfortunate’.

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    Guenter

    Facts about present SCAM-demic.
    I want to pass on how the scientific method seems missing in this SCAM here are some of my thoughts.

    1. Infectious diseases do non discriminate – age being irrelevant
    2. Habeas corpus – no body or organism isolated to show how it’s infecting anything!
    3. Royal Society moto: Nullius in Verba ‘take nobody’s word for it’ ‘Where’s the proof!!!’ https://royalsociety.org/about-us/history/
    4. Vaccine fallacy : 35 years NO scientific evidence, proof validity that a vaccine is safe.
    5. Billions paid in compensation for sufferers to Vaccine injuries.
    6. coronaviruses have co-existed with humans and animals around the world for a very long time Doctor Sucharit Bhakdi https://youtu.be/JBB9bA-gXL4
    7. COVID-19 Worldwide Death Count is FAR BELOW Annual Death Count in US for Ordinary Flu.
    8. Death Count and. Death Rate is Highly Skewed Due to Counting Method
    9. “The vast majority of Covid-19 fatalities, 99 percent according to Italian research, have had a pre-morbidity, if not two or three. These are underlying health issues, like heart disease, cancer or various infections. Some might have been comatose, with life support machines and artificial breathing the only thing keeping them alive anyway.”
    10. The Flawed PCR Test: Even CDC Admits Virus May Not Cause Symptoms or Disease- There are some serious problems with the generally accepted method of testing for a virus. It’s called the PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) test.
    11. Study Finds 80% False Positive Test Results for COVID-19 Cases-In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the ‘asymptomatic infected individuals’ reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.”
    12. German Federal Supreme Court (BGH) confirmed that the measles virus does not exist. https://consciouslifenews.com/biologist-proves-measles-virus-wins-supreme-court-case-against-doctor/11132677/#
    13. UK Expert Health Panel Quietly Downgrades COVID-19, Classified as No Longer Infectious. https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/fnw8jr/the_uk_government_has_now_downgraded_covid19_they/
    14. Vaccine Safety data for the last 35 non existent in Australia?

    Please experts reply with proof and not Rhetoric.

    “And so it is to the printing press – to the recorder of man’s deeds, the keeper of his conscience …
    confident that with your help man will be what he was born to be: free and independent.”

    – John F. Kennedy

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      Proof in a fast moving pandemic are the hundreds of doctors on the front line saying they’ve never seen anything like this. It’s the coffin makers working at 6 times their normal load. Medical frontline staff all over the world are saying the same thing.

      There is no accurate hard perfect data during an exponential curve that overwhlems hospitals. Expecting it is unreasonable.

      Something is spreading that looks like a pandemic virus, acts like a pandemic virus, kills like ….

      Are hundreds of doctors and coffin makers deceiving us ?

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    Orson

    An observational study of Ivermectin used to treat severe ICU and on ventilators Covis19 patients shows over half saved from death, and in hospital patient time reduced by one-third. With only a single dose of Ivermectin. (Just search Ivermectin and lead author Amit Patel. The paper has been submitted for peer review, but a preprint from SSRN is available, as are several un-informed journalistic notices.)

    I gather that the in vitro Aussie study, together with this small trial, amount to “proof of concept” efforts that may now generate open trials. The abstract is broken down by Dr Chris Martenson (PhD in pathology) here at 23m:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vtX0s-nHKo

    Using data compiled from nearly 2,000 patients across several continents, 52 patients with severe symptoms of Covid19 virus were treated with a single dose of Ivermectin (body mass adjusted dosing). The rate of mortality was over 18% without Ivermectin; with Ivermectin, the death rate was reduced to 7.7%.

    This decisively favourable treatment outcome, if sustained by open trials, suggests that a new second best novel Coronavirus treatment tool may be forthcoming, only after HCQ.

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    Orson

    A report of off label use of Ivermectin to treat Covid19 infection in the Miami, Florida area made it to the local channel 6 NBC affiliate. There is a 3m video report, but here Inpost the test as written online as of April 14th, 2020:

    CORONAVIRUS
    Local Doctor Tries New Coronavirus Drug Treatment

    It is not a cure.

    That’s the first thing Dr. Jean-Jacques Rajter wants everyone to know about the treatment he’s using on his COVID-19 patients at Broward [County] Health Medical Center.

    “Ideally, the sooner you get to them, the better off they are,” said Dr. Rajter, a pulmonologist.

    He and his wife, who is also a pulmonologist, are pioneering the use of an anti-parasitic drug called Ivermectin to fight the novel coronavirus.

    “If we get to these people early, and what I mean by that is if their oxygen requirements are less than 50%, I’ve had nearly a 100% response rate, they all improve, if they’re on more oxygen than that, then it becomes a little more varied, some people, they don’t respond anymore because they are too far advanced,” explained Dr. Rajter.

    Two weeks ago, Dr. Rajter started adding Ivermectin to the cocktail of drugs currently used to treat COVID-19: hydroxychloraquine, azithromycin, and zinc sulfate.

    Since then he’s treated dozens of people with this combination, with results so encouraging, he calls them remarkable. Dr. Rajter is in the process of publishing a scientific paper, which could take weeks to publicize the findings.

    “But if I wait, every day that goes by is another day when lots and lots of people get very sick, go to ICU, many of them die and that could theoretically even be preventable and that’s why I thought it was so critically important to get this information out there,” Dr. Rajter said.

    He credits his wife, Dr. Juliana Cepelowicz-Rajter, with the idea of using Ivermectin for this purpose. She came across Australian research which showed Ivermectin destroys the virus in the lab, in vitro, but it has not been studied for this purpose in people.

    “More studies need to be conducted,” Dr. Cepelowicz-Rajter said. “We haven’t had any ill effects from it and it’s readily available, we have some patients who are pretty advanced, not yet intubated, and even those, in 12 hours, they showed a significant improvement.”

    John Reed is one of those patients. He’s recovering at Broward Health Medical Center after being treated with the cocktail including Ivermectin.

    “I’m blessed with God, I’m blessed surely with my doctor, I’m definitely blessed with my nurses because they are wonderful staff and I’m blessed with that medicine because I didn’t know it was gonna happen,” Reed said via FaceTime from his hospital bed.

    “It saved my life, trust me it saved my life.”

    Dr. Rajter said Reed fit the criteria he set for trying the new regimen. Reed was in bad shape, rapidly going downhill, but not yet ready to intubate. As Rajter explains it, once they’re intubated, the medication does not have as much impact.

    “I took those people who invariably were going to crash, meant they were going from room air to 50% oxygen in a matter of hours, I know where that’s headed,” Dr. Rajter said, pointing out that COVID-19 patients often deteriorate extremely fast.

    The FDA issued a warning today, saying while Ivermectin is approved for use in humans to fight parasites, more studies need to be done to prove its worth in fighting COVID19.

    Dr. Rajter agrees and so does Dr. Cepelowicz-Rajter, saying that’s exactly what they are doing.

    In fact, Dr. Rajter received approval late Monday afternoon from Broward Health to use his protocol in all of their hospitals. That means COVID-19 patients at Broward Health Medical Center, Broward Health North. Broward Health Imperial Point, and Broward Health Coral Springs might be receiving the Ivermectin cocktail, depending on their conditions.

    The FDA’s statement also warns everyone not to self-medicate with the veterinary version of Ivermectin, that’s dangerous. Leave it to your doctor to prescribe it, and as Dr. Rajter says, the best strategy is to avoid the virus in the first place.

    “It’s not a miracle cure, we’re not talking about a miracle cure, to me the message remains the same as it’s been all along: social distancing, stay away from people, wear a mask, which I took off for the interview, wash your hands, when you bring something into the home make sure you sanitize everything, that is really the message,” said Dr. Rajter

    https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/local-doctor-tries-new-coronavirus-drug-treatment/2219465/

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    Orson

    Why all of the buzz over Ivermectin? Low cost and widespread availability are two things. A third is its veterinary use in developing countries, soon to be hard hit with Covid19 victims.

    For example, I did a quick search on Ivermectin on YouTube and found around a dozen short videos on the Monash University study and Ivermectin and Covid19. I found around a dozen videos in the past two weeks on the subject. At least four from India and Pakistan, as well as one in Spanish (presumably not from Spain; I don’t know: I did not view all of these videos, so mine is simply a guess based on the 10x population of Spanish speakers beyond Spain’s borders).

    I’ll call attention to one short video I did view as somewhat comical, and in fact put into the “comedy” tag for YouTube videos.

    The author and presenter appears to be one Dr Roby Mitchell from Texas who means well but makes an obvious mistake: people are not horses, yet he goes from horse paste dewormer directly to human weight dosing based on the veterinary product found in Amarillo, Texas. Some posters in his thread appear to take his endorsement literally, dispite asking reasonable questions of Roby!

    (My iPad somehow prevents me from locating that page right now. However, his About page at YouTube ought to get anyone curious there: YouTube.com/user/drfitt/about
    His user name is “Roby MitchellMD”)

    Roby explains his disaffection from medicine because of Big Pharma, his own road to treating his own chronic health issues, and his “voluntary” surrender of his license to practice medicine. Or so he says on his About page at YouTube.

    One wonders if a search of Texas license records might hint or even disclose a malpractice action buried in his past? At any rate, the now Dr fittt no longer practices medicine, and now, perhaps in jest, commends horse paste dewormer doses to “treat” Covid19 viral infections?

    Maybe a formerly state licensed MD has found his calling in the humour section!

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    Orson

    Ah, found the link for the above video. ”Dosing Ivermectin” for reducing viral loads, April 12, 2020, by Roby MitchellMD https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKWmsiJILe4

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    Orson

    Both msn-yahoo and the New York Post have picked up on the Ivermectin to treat CV19 stories, combining the three or four stories above (and no, I do not mean the Roby MitchellMD one, either)!

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/head-lice-drug-being-studied-as-possible-coronavirus-treatment/

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/head-lice-drug-could-be-potential-coronavirus-treatment-studies-show/ar-BB12Dtrc

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    Keith Harrison

    Check out this analysis of ivermectin as a cure for Covid and the virus SARS Cov 2

    https://www.randombio.com/ivermectin.html

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