JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Thursday Open Thread

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91 comments to Thursday Open Thread

  • #
    Sceptical Sam

    Peter Ridd and the appeal by JCU

    Professor Peter Ridd has now received the James Cook University’s (JCU) legal arguments for its appeal.

    Notwithstanding the previous court finding that JCU acted illegally, JCU is continuing to argue that it had a right to stop Prof Ridd saying that a couple of Great Barrier Reef science organisations had insufficient Quality Assurance systems to give the public trust in their work. It claims their code of conduct, which is actually a free-speech straight jacket, gives it this power.

    Although case has morphed into an argument about Academic Freedom rather than whether the Great Barrier Reef is being killed by climate change and farmers, you should be in no doubt about its importance to those issues. Academics and experts like Prof Ridd are being gagged all around the world, and this is one reason that contrarian views about the Reef, or climate change, are crushed by the establishment.

    He needs our help to fund his defence against the JCU appeal and has opened a new GoFundMe campaign.

    Read more at his new GoFundMe site here:

    https://www.gofundme.com/f/peter-ridd-legal-action-fund-2019

    210

    • #
      LightningCamel

      The behaviour of JCU is absolutely disgusting but, although we hope Peter has a victory, by making the noise in the first place he has done his bit for science. His legal victory hinges on specific wording in the employment documents and you can be just about certain that changes have been made in employment agreements all over the country to restore the power of the dead hand of bureaucracy.

      Already work has been published showing that much of the JCU work in question is invalidated because it cannot be replicated. Peter’s claim that the science was poor is vindicated.

      The disappointment is that whilst all this is happening there is deafening silence from most of the rest of the scientific community. Where are the general protests at Peter’s treatment, where are the protests from scientific bodies, where is the public scrutiny of employment agreements at other institutions? So much for the integrity of scientists! Back in the day when I was one it used to mean something to me but even then the pressure to reach conclusions acceptable to funding sources was beginning to be felt.

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    • #
      RicDre

      The last time I checked, Peter has already raised $74,868 of the $100,000 goal. You would think JCU would be taken aback by the support he is getting to raise the funds to fight them but I supposed that would require a modicum of introspection which is something the appear to lack.

      80

    • #
      Reed Coray

      When I donated to Dr. Ridd’s legal fund, the form asked my why I donated. My answer was: “I don’t like bullies.” Someone with artistic talent should make a cartoon of JCU’s vice chancellor getting ready to put her foot down on a defenseless Dr. Ridd.

      60

    • #
      Gbees

      I have donated again. Dan Tehan needs to step up and tell JCU to stop immediately. Waste of taxpayer funds for what is basically a face saving exercise.

      30

  • #

    It would be interesting to know which of the two strains of Corona Virus are floating around in Australia.

    SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Scientists in China studying the outbreak of disease caused by the new coronavirus say they have found that two main strains of the virus are circulating in humans and causing infections.

    The researchers, from Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, cautioned that their study looked only at a limited range of data, and said follow-up studies of larger data sets were needed to better understand the virus’s evolution.

    The preliminary study found that a more aggressive strain of the new coronavirus associated with the outbreak in Wuhan accounted for about 70% of analyzed cases, while 30% were linked to a less aggressive type.

    The prevalence of the more aggressive virus type decreased after early January 2020, they said.

    90

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Can’t believe there is a protest brewing over roadside tree removal , given the access problems during and after the fire there should be a wide enough firebreak to stop the road being blocked by fallen trees .

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/conservation-watchdog-investigates-is-bushfire-tree-removal-overzealous-20200305-p5476c.html?fbclid=IwAR3FtT0AC0aGgn2M7wocJ-9zyG4Wsz5Vt8NpvkVRvxLk-Fg6A1Ww_Rg1ir8

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      It never stops.

      Activism for activism’s sake.

      KK

      100

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Are these the activists who celebrated their “success” in stopping logging and bush clearance just before the fires came?

      140

      • #
        Dennis

        The same dumb fools who are blaming CO2 for the bushfires, the more in the atmosphere the faster the growth of vegetation – fire hazard material, they complain.

        “Carbon pollution” of course.

        Stupid.

        50

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      These people are a menace to all Australians.

      The Kings Highway, the Princes Highway, the Snowy Mountains Highway, all in the south-east of NSW, were closed at the same time during the November/February fires. No traffic in or out.

      Each of these highways had (and still have) trees right up to the very edge of the road. People suffered. Businesses went belly-up. Emergency services were constrained. Holiday makers got stuck – often at significant cost.

      Around Mogo, the Emergency Services people had to cut the trees well back from the road because of the danger from them falling over the road when it was re-opened. Ditto for the roads around Bateman’s Bay and along the Kings Highway – especially up the Clyde Mountain.

      The greenies are starting to put their silly heads above the parapet again now that things have moved on a bit. They need to be dealt with. Politicians are not likely to do that because they’re weak-willed cowards. It’ll be up to the local communities to take action. Local government needs to be taken over by sensible people who know what’s needed.

      Get the greenies out of their positions of influence. Their “war of position” has now become their “war of maneuver”. Rudi Dutschke developed their strategy on the back of Gramsci. This time it needs to be dealt with properly.

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    • #
      Chad

      Obviously none of these fools live in arease affected by the fires with loss of access, loss of power and communications, shortages of fuel and food etc etc…
      ALL of which could have been prevented with a 50 m tree clearance on each side of main hyways anf power lines etc.
      Im also sure most of those protesters have no realisation of the quantity of trees in these forrested areas and how small a % that type of clearance would mean.
      AND.. maintaining access on roads gives firefighters continued access to control fires such that. These “Mega” fires may be prevented, and hence actually result in MORE tree numbers surviving long term .
      Meantime , bus them all own to the south coast to see what the real world is like with trees actually near you. !

      40

    • #
      truth

      If the federal government doesn’t ensure something is done about this..despite the fact that it’s a State or Local government responsibility…then the government signals loud and clear that it’s just not serious about saving Australian lives….ie residents’ and firies’… in bushfire situations.

      Those roads are potential death tunnels that families have to run when the inevitable fires are on in those areas.

      IMO the Commonwealth Government must now take responsibility for these lifesaving measures….or publicly declare the fatal flaw in their protection role that will see human lives treated with disdain and contempt by the Left as always…and legislate …or have a referendum to enlarge the power of the Federal government in the Federation.

      States are increasingly in the hands of the Left whether it’s GreenLabor or the Liberal WetLeft…and Local Government is at their mercy …no change likely because the journalists and media networks with the power… are extremely indulgent of them….no matter how much or how often the Left demonstrate that their cohort are the very worst environmental vandals …with the very least concern for Australia…for the people..animals…birds…landscape…of anyone in the country…and it’s the same worldwide.

      If it doesn’t happen now it won’t happen until we get a conservative government…or a GreenLabor government does it and the LW MSM will then rewrite history for them…lie for them and pretend the GreenLabor Left wanted these changes all along….just as MSM Left ensures pedophilia Royal Commissions and inquiries are used to cast Labor who protect Labor Government coverups of pedophilia… as the champions of the Aboriginal victims.

      20

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Thanks Sam for the reminder about Peter Ridd.

    Amazing work Jo in putting together info and updates on the Coronavirus outbreak.

    Time for some info that might put the covid outbreak into perspective: at least outside of China.

    Looking at other problems helps put the new disease in perspective: others have done this by comparing figures for Influenza.

    Other comparisons may be;

    Vietnam, population over 90 million.
    Annual road deaths in 2019 appear to be over 8,500.

    Australia, total suicide count for 2017 was over 3,100.

    Yes, vastly different issues but it does help to see that there are other things that also need our thoughts and actions.

    KK

    100

    • #
      John PAK

      Deaths need not be high. I’ll repeat an earlier comment.
      A doctor in the UK told me that we need to bolster our immunity with Vit D and Vit C and reduce tea, coffee, alcohol and anything else that is not food, infect ourselves and go into isolation with a fortnight’s supplies, a mobile phone and a good book. Most healthy folk will develop anti-bodies without breaking into anything more than a sweat.
      Once a third of Au has immunity the infection rate will decline.
      We probably need something like the old Tuberculosis Hospitals of the 1930s to house the few who require further treatment. It sounds daft sending them to an ordinary hospital where they might infect others who are already immune compromised.

      30

      • #

        I’m going to tell everyone I meet what John PAK was told by a doctor in the UK

        20

        • #
          John PAK

          Gee Aye, I have stayed at the doctor’s house a few times during the past 30 years and respect his balanced and considered opinions tho’ in this case he may not have all the information.
          He made the reasonable point that many healthy infected cases go undetected so the death rate may be less than 1% and in the 10 to 60 age-group the death rate would probably be very much lower providing they are healthy and careful to avoid contact.
          Once Australians have over-come their bog-roll reaction they might just apply some common sense.

          10

      • #
  • #
    pat

    3 Mar: BBC: HS2: Chris Packham launches legal challenge to rail link
    TV naturalist Chris Packham has launched a legal challenge to HS2 high-speed rail link.
    The Springwatch presenter said the government’s approval of the controversial project fails to take carbon emissions targets into account.
    Mr Packham said: “In regard to the HS2 rail project I believe our government has failed.”
    The Department for Transport (DfT) said it was considering the challenge and would respond “in due course”…READ ON
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51722251

    3 Mar: UK Sun (scroll down) Eco paralysis
    THEY didn’t waste any time, did they?
    Fresh from all but killing off Heathrow’s third runway, the eco lobby is launching a legal war to block HS2 using the same argument: that the Government did not factor in its commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050…
    You may be as opposed as TV’s Chris Packham, who is behind this challenge.

    But there is no doubt that, as The Sun predicted last month, the Heathrow ­ruling will be weaponised by eco campaigners to scupper every development, every new road and even road repairs.
    We hope the Government’s lawyers are preparing a watertight response.
    Or every piece of infrastructure the Tories are planning, no matter how vital, will end up being kicked into the long grass, as fracking was.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11092809/boris-successfully-handling-coronavirus-crisis/

    60

  • #
    pat

    time for Govts to stand up and announce they are exiting Paris. the unelected will not rule:

    4 Mar: Guardian: The government must abandon its fossil fuel power projects. If not, we’ll sue
    Last week’s Heathrow judgment was a watershed. Now we must target other projects that put profit before life on Earth
    by George Monbiot
    The Heathrow decision stands as a massive and crucial precedent. Now we must use it to insist that governments everywhere put our survival first, and the demands of corporate lobbyists last. To this end, with the Good Law Project and Dale Vince, the founder of Ecotricity, I’m pursuing a similar claim. In this case, we are challenging the UK government’s policy for approving new energy projects.

    On Tuesday, we delivered a “letter before action” to the Treasury solicitor. We’ve given the government 21 days to accept our case and change its policy to reflect the climate commitments agreed by parliament. If it fails to do so, we shall issue proceedings in the high court to have the policy declared unlawful. We’ll need money, so we’ve launched a crowdfunding appeal to finance the action…
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/04/government-fossil-fuel-power-projects-heathrow-judgment

    81

  • #
    toorightmate

    Is it correct that it has been found that some types of toilet paper carry the Corona Virus and people who have recently purchased it should immediately return it to the place of purchase?

    30

    • #
      robert rosicka

      I doubt it but I have seen similar same claims on Facebook but they want you to return the rolls to them ( the poster) and not the place you bought them from .

      20

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      :-) :-)

      Not sure about that but some paper made in Asia used to have a horrible smell that almost certainly came from the use of impure water in manufacture.

      Some two dollar shops locally have cardboard boxes that smell ripe.

      KK

      30

    • #
      John M

      I was surprised to see a doctor on MSM stating that this virus can be active on stationary objects fo 5-9 days.

      That’s crazy yet it was Doctor OZ.

      I guess the real question, is this a weaponized virus.

      Yikes

      20

  • #
    joseph

    Worth a look!

    HAMBURG, N.Y. — Cold temperatures, gale-force winds, and 18-foot waves from Lake Erie created an ice spectacle at Hoover Beach in Hamburg.

    https://www.wgrz.com/article/weather/ice-houses-at-hoover-beach/71-f88dfc30-7a5d-4d56-bed8-aa88777a36f9

    60

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      My God !!!!!
      The Goddess of Global Warming
      Has pi$$ed off
      And abandoned them all
      To their frozen fate !!

      Somebody go get St Greta
      To pray for them !

      20

  • #

    Isn’t it amazing that when something of importance comes to ‘front of mind’, everything else just fades totally into insignificance.

    What is good to see here in Australia, especially now in NSW, is that there is ….. ‘finally’, some talking being undertaken about nuclear power generation.

    I want you to look at this data from the U.S.

    There are 98 Nuclear Reactors at 60 Nuclear power plants with a total Nameplate of 104,270MW. The average age of those power plants is just a little under 40 years, so virtually already double the best case scenario for age for any solar power plant or wind power plant.

    The percentage of total Nameplate for every power plant from Nuclear power Nameplate – 8.6%

    The percentage of total power generation from Nuclear power generation – 19.66%

    At the end of 2019, those Nuclear Power plants operated the whole year at a Capacity Factor of 88.6%.

    Tony.

    90

  • #

    Here’s some information wrt wind power.

    In the U.S. in January, the Nameplate for wind power finally overtook the Nameplate for Nuclear Power. (105,600MW for wind power now versus 104,270MW for Nuclear power)

    However Nuclear power delivered 2.7 times the generated power delivered by wind power across the whole year.

    Respective yearly operational Capacity Factors for wind power

    Australia – Nameplate – 6960MW. Capacity Factor – 29.33%

    U.S.A. – Nameplate – 105,600MW. Capacity Factor – 32.1%

    China – Nameplate – 210,050MW. Capacity Factor – 22.1% (Note here that China now has double the Nameplate of the next highest Nameplate, the U.S.)

    Incidentally, China now generates more power from just coal fired power (5045TWH) than the U.S. generates from every source, (4118TWH) and in China, coal fired power makes up 68.9% of all generated power, and that’s virtually the same percentage as here in Australia.

    Tony.

    100

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Tony during Senate estimates Matt Canavan was pushing someone on the efficiency of wind turbines and the official said over 40% .

      30

      • #
        Dennis

        And unfortunately on Sky News Peta Credlin repeated the 40% CF for wind turbines (should be 30%, just under).

        How easily propaganda can spread.

        30

      • #

        Can you see here how the average person has literally zero chance of understanding it.

        Ask the question and you get the required response for the question asked, and a number of times across the years I have attempted to explain it, but it’s a fruitless explanation really.

        You need to be absolutely specific in what you ask.

        Why?

        Efficiency and Capacity Factor are two different things.

        See what is written at this link, and from that link, there’s this:

        Efficiency is a measure of how much of the kinetic energy in the wind is converted to electrical energy. It is unavoidable that some energy is lost in the conversion process. Even when a wind turbine is generating power at its maximum capacity, the electrical energy produced is only a fraction of the energy in the wind. (At best, it is around 50%, which is usually reached before generating at full capacity.) Efficiency is a matter of engineering and the limits of physics and usually irrelevant to normal discussion.

        Capacity factor is a measure of a wind turbine’s actual power output, which varies with the wind speed, over a period of time.

        Now perhaps you gain an inkling of why the ….. right question needs to be asked.

        And perhaps you can gain an inkling now how artfully that ‘efficiency’ word can be miscontrued by people who don’t really understand it to get mixed up with ‘capacity factor’.

        Note also the wording at the end of that statement on …..’efficiency’, where it says:

        ….. irrelevant to normal discussion

        So, Matt Canavan (unwittingly) asks the question about efficiency, when he (quite obviously really) meant to ask about capacity factor, and he received the correct answer for what he asked, because the person responding ….. actually knew the difference and responded accordingly, with no need to add the explanation of the difference between the two, perpetuating the misunderstanding, which then gets repeated by Peta Credlin, and the supporters of wind gain an extra ten percent.

        See the point here.

        It’s far far easier to understand that electrical power comes out of the proverbial hole in the wall than to understand any (and all) of the finer points.

        Tony.

        PostScript: If I can get all of you to do one thing, please save that link as a reference.

        60

        • #
          Dennis

          A couple of decades ago at a meeting with an ACCC lawyer employee she was told that a certain manufacturing process was more efficient than another, she shot back quite rudely that she is not interested in claims of who is the more efficient.

          30

        • #
          yarpos

          I’d argue that the definition of capacity factor should be talking about energy not power, but I guess that is just another can of word worms.

          20

  • #
    Reed Coray

    About one month ago, Joanne posted on her blog a letter from US Congressperson Kathy Castor to the CEO of Google. In that letter, Ms Castor admonished YouTube (a subsidiary of Google) to either (a) not post or (b) caveat as being misinformation any material that questioned the need to take immediate action to avoid a climate crisis. I plan to send to Ms Castor and one or two others the following letter with attachment. The attachment, which is too long (40 pages) for this blog, backs up the eleven ways the global warming alarmist community uses misinformation as outlined in the letter. Comments from Joanne’s readers are welcome before I mail the letter.
    ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Date: 4 March 2020

    To: Kathy Castor,
    Chair of the US House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis

    From: Reed Coray
    USA Citizen

    Subject: Your 27 January 2020 Climate Crisis Letter to Sundar Pichai, CEO Google

    Dear Congressperson Castor,

    You believe there is a “climate crisis;” and that if nothing is done to solve that crisis, mankind will suffer dire consequences. You also believe skeptics use misinformation to inhibit if not prevent action to solve the climate crisis. I’d be stunned if your beliefs originate from personal knowledge of the technical issues involved. It’s more likely that your beliefs stem from statements made by a large number of “climate scientists,” and/or lobbyists trying to convince you there is a problem that can be solved by giving favored status to the organizations they represent. Because you hold these beliefs, you wrote the CEO of Google, Sundar Pichai, a letter containing the following:

    “… As we all work together to solve this crisis [climate change], we must also eliminate barriers to action, including those as pervasive and harmful as climate denial and climate misinformation.

    “That’s why I urge you to ensure that YouTube is not incentivizing climate misinformation content on its platform, or effectively giving free advertising to those who seek to protect polluters and their profits at the expense of the American People.

    Specifically, YouTube can address these issues by taking the following steps:
    • Stop promoting climate denial and climate disinformation videos by removing them immediately from the platform’s recommended algorithm;
    • Add ‘climate misinformation’ to the platforms list of borderline content;
    • Stop monetizing videos that promote harmful misinformation and falsehoods about the causes and effects of the climate crisis;
    • Take steps to correct the record for millions of users who have been exposed to climate misinformation on YouTube.”

    Don’t you think it is arrogant and even sinister for a U.S. government official to try to control/shut down the discussion of a highly technical subject about which the government official has little or no personal knowledge? I call such behavior arrogant. But worse, I call such behavior an attempt by a government official to infringe upon the free speech rights of U.S. citizens.

    In the attachment to this letter, I (a) give a virtual example of an invalid conclusion arrived at via seemingly unassailable logic, and (b) demonstrate that the “global warming alarmist community” also uses misinformation. Specifically, I show the following eleven ways the global warming alarmist community uses misinformation:

    1. Climate Denial: A phrase used by the global warming alarmist community to characterize a belief held by those outside the community—i.e., by skeptics. Confounds the issue, hardly anyone “denies climate;” and to imply skeptics “deny climate” is to falsely assign to them an inane belief.

    2. Greenhouse Effect: Name given to a process to convince the general public that via the presence of atmospheric “greenhouse gases” the Earth is warming in much the same way that a greenhouse is warmer than its environment. Misleading, a greenhouse warms primarily by inhibiting thermal convection, a form of heat transfer greenhouse gases contribute to, not inhibit.

    3. Greenhouse Gas/Greenhouse Effect: Atmospheric greenhouse gases cause the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse effect is caused by atmospheric greenhouse gases. Circular argument.

    4. Greenhouse Gases Trap Heat:
    (a) In the sense that “trap” implies the inability to escape—Wrong, no substance can prevent heat from moving from a region of higher temperature to a region of lower temperature.
    (b) In the sense of retaining heat—Misleading, greenhouse gases aren’t unique, all gases retain heat.
    (c) In the sense of retaining heat at a rate greater than the rate heat is lost—Unimportant to global warming because over the hundred or so million years greenhouse gases have existed in the atmosphere, the Earth’s temperature has just now reached a temperature of approximately 288 Kelvin.
    (d) In the sense of absorbing electromagnetic radiation—Misleading, greenhouse gases also “free” heat by emitting electromagnetic radiation.

    5. Most incoming solar energy exists in the visible band. Wrong, approximately 51% of incoming solar radiation lies in the IR band, a fact often glossed over by the global warming community.

    6. Incoming solar radiation in the visible band reaches the Earth’s surface unabsorbed by the atmosphere. Misleading, the Earth’s atmosphere absorbs a not insignificant (approximately 10%) amount of visible band solar radiation incident at the top of the atmosphere.

    7. The spectrum of incoming solar radiation peaks in the visible spectrum. Half-truth, correct if measured by Spectral Radiance per Unit Wavelength, incorrect if measured by Spectral Radiance per Unit Frequency.

    8. Increasing temperatures follow increasing amounts of heat. Half-truth, sometimes yes, sometimes no.

    9. In the absence of greenhouse gases, the Earth’s temperature would be 33 Kelvin colder than it currently is. Wrong.

    10. All else being equal, back radiation where none existed before leads to a temperature increase in the object receiving the back radiation. Half-truth, sometimes yes, sometimes no.

    11. Make available two or three hundred billion dollars to anyone who can find any adverse effect of a phenomenon; and when responses come in, argue the science in support of the phenomenon is overwhelming. Science by authority or purchased science—take your pick.

    Please read what I have written. You might come to believe (unlikely, but possible) that the alarmists’ “climate science” may not be all that “scientific.” You might even conclude that a fitting motto for today’s global warming alarmist community is: “We have met the climate-science misinformers, and they are us.”

    Sincerely,
    Reed S. Coray

    150

    • #
      Greebo

      All good, but I’ll bet big she never reads it.

      10

      • #
        Reed Coray

        Greebo, No bet. However, I did send the letter and document to three other people who might read them: (1) Garret Graves, the ranking (republican) member of Congresswoman Castor’s committee, (2) Sudar Pichai, and (3) Marc Morano, vocal climate skeptic. If you know of other worthwhile recipients, give me their email addresses and I’ll send the info to them.

        10

  • #
    Lance

    2 ships stuck in arctic ice, 3rd ship on its way.

    160 cm ice thickness.

    https://electroverse.net/yet-another-icebreaker-finds-itself-stuck-in-unexpectedly-thick-arctic-ice/

    I wonder how many icebreakers will be locked in ice before the thaws occur? Any bets?

    90

    • #
      AndyG55

      NSIDC has current Arctic sea ice extent, for day of year, above ALL the last 16 years except 2008 and 2012.

      40

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    • #
      Peter C

      Interesting Zoe,

      The effect ( as calculated) mostly is complete after 6 seconds of heat retention in the atmosphere.

      The proof as you say is by observation and/or experiment. I liked the simple idea of putting one’s face close to a mirror. That is a close analogy to the putative radiation green house effect. I did that. My face did not feel much warmer, but was it slightly warmer, just a little bit warmer. Perhaps it is hard to tell.

      I have already proven that a passively cooling warm body takes longer to cool if it is surrounded by a mirror surface. My apparatus consists of a glass thermos bottle filled with hot water. The vacccum is destroyed so as to get access to the silvering, which coats both the inner and outer surface of the vacuum space.

      In the second, comparative experiment the silvering is removed. The rate of cooling is faster after the silvering is removed.
      A refinement would be to add a small heater, which would heat the water to a constant temperature. I may try that but I don’t think it will change anything.

      I still have the equipment so I may try the experiment again.

      50

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  • #
    • #

      Greta versus the EU, like Greta versus the UN last September. The civil war between moderates and radicals continues to tear alarmism apart. See my https://www.cfact.org/2019/09/28/is-climate-alarmism-tearing-itself-apart/.

      I predict COP 26 in Glasgow will collapse, just as COP 25 in Madrid did.

      Woohoo!

      50

      • #

        Here is a perfect example of the war between radical and moderate alarmists:
        https://www.cfact.org/2020/03/01/a-tale-of-two-futures-for-air-travel/

        Also the Democtat presidential contest is now between Bernie the radical and Biden the moderate. The Biden surge was caused by Bernie boasting about his grand plans, and taxes. The louder the radicals get the more the public backs away.

        40

      • #
        RicDre

        “I predict COP 26 in Glasgow will collapse, just as COP 25 in Madrid did.”

        I realize that COP26 is eight months away, but with the coronavirus going around, perhaps they will decide to cancel the physical conference and do the whole thing by video conference. Think of the virtue-signaling possibilities in talking about the reduced air travel, energy use and food consumption. And since they say we must all do our part in reducing greenhouse gas production, it seems like a very easy decision for them to make to do their part in this fight to Save The Planet. And as a side benefit, if they don’t like being harangued by Greta Thunberg, they can always press the Mute button.

        40

        • #
          yarpos

          Videoconferencing has been pretty common since at least the 1990s. You would think if they really wanted to use it they would have by now, so barring plague or mass terrorism they are a cert to descend on Glasgow, many using the much climate despised Heathrow on the way. The hypocrisy runs deep.

          30

          • #
            Dennis

            But what about the parties and other social activities?

            As Christopher Monckton has commented about.

            lol

            20

            • #
              RicDre

              “But what about the parties and other social activities?”

              No problem, they can have Virtual Parties and Virtual Social Activities. I am sure they will be just as fulfilling as the real thing and they can do a lot more Virtue-Signaling while accumulating a lot more Social Points for themselves.

              40

            • #
              yarpos

              The can still have them in their sub conference rooms with big screens in each country. They dont get to meet new and exotic buddies that way nor smooze for future career moves.

              20

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Willis E. on

    “The Eleventh Tenth First Climate Change Refugees”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/05/the-eleventh-tenth-first-climate-change-refugees/

    20

  • #
    Another Ian

    “AOC’s Pitch for the Green New Deal Is Unhinged From Reality”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/05/aocs-pitch-for-the-green-new-deal-is-unhinged-from-reality/

    A primer for when the greens borrow it to flog here

    20

  • #
    el gordo

    The mob that predicted big hail in Canberra and a horrendous bush fire season, are now saying tropical cyclones are heading further south.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-06/cyclones-spreading-south-could-cause-tens-of-billions-in-damage/12020218

    Apparently the waters off the east coast are warming …. hmmm …..

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      pat

      el gordo – your link – from ABC “Background Briefing” concentrates on the CAGW case, only finally getting to a sections for ‘If I can’t get my house fixed, I’m homeless’;

      the broadcast itself humanises…and then politicises it. first time I’ve seen “More Info” get so political:

      AUDIO: 38m43s: 8 Mar: ABC Background Briefing: “If I can’t get my house fixed, I’m homeless.”
      By Geoff Thompson; Executive Producer: Alice Brennan
      Even after the black summer Australians have just endured, it’s not bushfires that’s keeping the nation’s insurers awake at night.
      Climate change is bringing cyclones further south – towards highly populated areas like Brisbane, the Gold Coast and northern NSW.
      Insurers are warning that unless the Federal Government takes drastic action, parts of the country may even become uninsurable.
      And as Geoff Thompson discovers, its not some threat on the horizon – the conditions are already here.

      More Information
      Responses from the office of Federal Emergency Management Minister David Littleproud:
      QUESTION: Since 2015 the Productivity Commission has been calling for the Federal Government to invest $200 million a year in pre-disaster mitigation efforts. Similar calls for more pre-disaster mitigation funding have also been supported by insurers, the ACCC, APRA, the Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience and Safer Communities and the Department of Treasury through its “Northern Australia Insurance Premiums Taskforce”. The Federal Government is currently only committed to spending $76.1 million dollars a year on pre-disaster mitigation. Why?

      RESPONSE: In the 2019-20 Federal Budget, the Australian Government committed $3.9 billion to establish an Emergency Response Fund (ERF).
      a. The ERF will provide for up to $50 million per year for risk reduction and mitigation initiatives.
      b. Funding of up to $150 million per year, when the Government determines that existing recovery programs are insufficient to meet the scale of the response required.

      QUESTION: Currently, Federal and State governments are spending about 3% of disaster funding on mitigation efforts – compared to 97% on post-disaster recovery. That is small by international standards. In the United States the figure is a 15% spend on pre-disaster mitigation. Why isn’t the Federal Government committing more to pre-disaster mitigation?

      RESPONSE: In the 2019-20 Federal Budget, the Australian Government committed $130.5 million towards a five-year funding package for disaster risk reduction initiatives in line with the National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework.
      a. On 20 November 2019, the Ministerial Council for Police and Emergency Management agreed in principle to match the Commonwealth’s $130.5 million commitment.
      b. Discussions with states and territories to develop a National Partnership Agreement in relation to this funding are underway.
      c. It is unfair to compare the United States, a nation of 330 million to Australia, a nation of 25 million.

      QUESTION: The Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience and Safer Communities found that a simple cost-benefit analysis demonstrated that Federal Government funds would be saved over the longer term by investing more in pre-disaster mitigation measures. Mitigation expenditure of $5.3 billion to 2050 would generate Federal Government savings of $9.8 billion. Please explain why it does not make simple economic sense for the Federal Government to invest more in pre-disaster mitigation?

      RESPONSE: In addition, funding may also be made available under the Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements for a range of community resilience building initiatives, including infrastructure ‘betterment’, which is described as the restoration or replacement of a damaged asset to a significantly more disaster resilient standard than its pre disaster standard.
      https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/cant-get-house-fixed-homeless/12030420

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        pat

        el gordo –

        an earlier piece from ABC’s Geoff Thompson for 7.30 Report:

        9 Oct 2018: ABC: ‘You can’t keep arguing this is just a cycle’: Farmers struggling to manage impacts of climate change
        7.30 By Geoff Thompson
        Updated 9 Oct 2018
        Peter Mailler is a third-generation farmer but if the effects of climate change continue on their current path, he doesn’t expect anyone will be farming his 6,000-acre property near Goondiwindi in the future.
        “You can’t keep arguing that this is just a cycle,” he told 7.30…
        And with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) containing dire predictions about reaching the critical 1.5 degrees of warming by 2040, Mr Mailler is not sure what he will do.
        “We’re running out of tricks,” he said.

        “Agriculture is a gamble and every time temperatures rise and the impacts of climate change rolls down, the odds keep moving in favour of the house.
        “My bet is that high temperatures are here to stay and that is a serious threat to how we farm and how we manage that lack of rainfall.”
        Farmers interested in ‘science and fact and evidence’…

        Mr Mailler was a National Party voter until he founded his own party to run against Barnaby Joyce in last December’s New England by-election…
        Sick of waiting for leadership from Canberra, his family has come up with its own solution.
        His parents have built a solar farm on their property and are selling electricity back into the grid.
        “It’s producing enough power for about 1,370 homes,” he explained…
        The only farm he is confident will make a profit is the family’s solar farm.
        “Absolutely,” he said.
        “Better money, safer money, easier money.”
        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-09/farmers-struggling-to-manage-impacts-of-climate-change-drought/10355686

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          GlenM

          Plenty of rain around Goondiwindi for last couple of months.Complainant Mailler is seeking a political career and is a go-to man for the ABC.

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        el gordo

        Morrison accepts the adaptation strategy and now that global cooling has begun its best to be on guard for weather extremes.

        To see what we can expect in the coming decade we only have to go back to the 1890s.

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        el gordo

        Ignore what the propaganda wing of the Klimatariat say and concentrate on the approaching flood. After all, ENSO is the main driver for moisture and temps.

        ‘Except for a widespread El Nino drought in 1888, the late 1880s and early 1890s were a period of extremely heavy rainfall over New South Wales, Queensland and to a lesser extent Victoria and the “settled” areas of Tasmania and South Australia. Lake Eyre is believed to have filled with water from Cooper Creek in 1886/1887, 1889/1890 and 1894.’ wiki

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    robert rosicka

    I didn’t know the ABC did apologies, that’s if you can call this an apology and find it on their website !

    http://about.abc.net.au/complaints/nightlife-7/?fbclid=IwAR3ujEgB-08QF–FtdPPnNwE7ZrbmAZ_XwATTxSKteU52ZgPCF5VCtcdxHw

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    pat

    read all while you can:

    6 Mar: Australian: Minding the carbon offset gap: bringing net emissions down to zero
    by Paul Garvey
    Australia’s carbon offset industry will need to grow exponentially if the country is to reach a net zero emissions target, underscoring the challenge facing policymakers trying to weigh up achieving climate targets while also sustaining lucrative coal, oil and gas industries…
    Less than 3 per cent of the ­nation’s emissions are being offset under the federal government’s emissions reduction fund…

    But the latest data reveals the daunting scale of the task of relying on offsets to achieve the target, with the equivalent of 33 tonnes of CO2 emitted across Australia for every one tonne of CO2 captured through official offset programs.
    The latest edition of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory showed a slight fall in carbon emissions for the year to September last year, with the total falling 1.4 million tonnes, or 0.3 per cent, to 530.8 million tonnes.
    That fall was achieved only as a result of the drought that crippled much of rural Australia last year, which reduced emissions by 4.1 million tonnes because of declines in livestock populations and a drop in fertiliser use…

    ***Increasingly affordable renewable energy sources are forecast to make strong inroads into emissions associated with electricity generation — which is the largest single source of emissions in Australia, accounting for more than a third of all carbon pollution — in the years ahead…
    But the path to offsetting the emissions of other sectors, such as the mining industry, oil and gas, transport and agriculture, is less apparent…

    And the Business Council of Australia, global mining giants BHP and Rio Tinto, and big oil and gas producer Woodside Petroleum have all put their support behind a ­target of net zero emissions by 2050.
    The broadening support for a net zero emissions position means the role of carbon offsets is expected to grow significantly…
    The Climate Council says “there is no room for carbon offsets” in meeting any net zero target, and instead says emissions need to be cut “deeply and rapidly at their source”.

    Conservation Council of Western Australia executive director Piers Verstegen says scaling up the nation’s carbon ­offset industry to the level needed to offset large-scale emissions would be “problematic”…
    “You can grow trees, but how can you guarantee they’re going to be there in five, 10, 20 or 50 years, particularly when we are facing changing climatic conditions and increasing bushfire risk which might make the offset impermanent?” he says…
    Globally, the offset industry has been marred by problems of credibility and effectiveness…

    Factors such as the forecast improvement in offset technologies and processes, efficiencies in mining practices and the erosion of global demand for carbon-­intensive commodities such as coal mean offsets are likely to make larger inroads into the world’s emissions by 2050.
    Big miners increasingly are looking towards solar and wind to power their operations, global coal demand is already starting to ease, and hydrogen fuel technology is gathering pace and could well be a reality in 30 years…
    There’s also potential technological leaps — such as in direct air capture that strips carbon dioxide out of the air — and further refinement of carbon capture and storage systems that could occur in the coming decades.

    Those sorts of factors, (Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst Leonard Quong) says, mean the pool of emissions requiring offsets in 2050 will be a lot smaller than it is today…
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/minding-the-carbon-offset-gap-bringing-net-emissions-down-to-zero/news-story/c3ca079a0e417fbb7c46826b01975937

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    Another Ian

    Biter bit

    “UK tech guru hacks into scammers own CCTV – this amazing insight into how scammers work”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/03/uk-tech-guru-hacks-into-scammers-own-cctv-this-amazing-insight-into-how-scammers-work.html

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    Another Ian

    Reading for the stock exchange punters

    “Stocks and oil”

    Just up at Chiefio – for whatever reason copy and paste isn’t working

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    Anonymous-Academic

    It is very clear from all the climatology energy diagrams showing back radiation that climatologists (and thus all the computer models) assume that the surface is warmer than the direct solar radiation could make it because of the back radiation supposedly causing about twice as much heat into the surface (324W/m^2) as the solar radiation (168W/m^2) supplies.

    You all need to face the FACT that climatologists QUANTIFY the surface temperature by adding together the fluxes from the Sun and the atmosphere, then deducting the cooling flux by evaporation and conduction-cum-convection out of the surface, and then using the net total of about 390W/m^2 in Stefan Boltzmann calculations that then give 288K for a uniform flux day and night all over the globe (LOL). The fact that it is variable would give a mean temperature at least 10 degrees cooler – like about 5C.

    This is totally wrong. Nothing in established physics says you can add fluxes like that and get correct results in Stefan-Boltzmann calculations. Nothing in established physics says the solar radiation can make the surface hotter than the black body temperature for the mean flux. There is no experiment that confirms radiation can be added this way – nothing anywhere! A simple experiment comparing the warming effect of a single artificial source of radiation and the warming by multiple such sources PROVES that this addition of radiative fluxes does NOT give correct results in Stefan-Boltzmann calculations, yet the WHOLE radiative forcing climate change conjecture is BASED on that FALSE assumption.

    And THAT is the reason Roy Spencer’s graphs show no warming since the peak in the 60-year cycle back in 1998 and will not show future warming until after 2028. There may be more then, but the long term cycle of about 1,000 years should turn to cooling perhaps before any more than another half degree of warming after 2028. Cosmic rays vary for several reasons and they are now shown to affect the amount of cloud cover, and thus cause natural climate cycles.

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    pat

    audio now up for this child climate grooming session from ABC/Paul Barclay. not listening, except to check the end to see if it took up the full program. it does:

    ABC’s Barclay intro: bushfires…wiping out as many as a billion animals (WHEN WILL RMIT/ABC FACT CHECK INVESTIGATE THAT NUMBER?)”

    AUDIO: 54m20s: 4 Mar: ABC Big Ideas: Overcoming eco-anxiety
    Many young Australians are experiencing ‘eco-anxiety’: a sense of dread caused by, as they see it, an unfolding, climate change induced, ecological catastrophe. The ongoing drought, and devastating wildfires, have only amplified their concerns and fears…
    Paul Barclay speaks to 4 young Australians between the ages of 17 and 25.
    Recorded at GOMA in Brisbane on February 20, 2020.
    Speakers:
    Kate McBride – grazier; Healthy River ambassador
    Jamie Graham – Tasmanian aboriginal activist; ecologist in training.
    Thomas King – CEO, Food Frontier.
    Varsha Yajman – climate change activist, Australian Youth Climate Coalition; organiser, School Strike for Climate.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/overcoming-eco-anxiety/12008548

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    yarpos

    Vic Govt sends out 10 hints for Covid to recipients of Seniors Cards
    …..
    2. TRY not to touch your eyes, nose or mouth.

    and the very next point

    3. COVER your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze.

    The public service’s best and brightest are here to help you

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    pat

    Chris Kenny/Sky just unloaded on this ABC/RMIT Fact Check. will post if the video comes online:

    6 Mar: ABC/RMIT Fact Check: Craig Kelly says Australia had more rainfall in the first 20 years of this century than the first 20 years of last century. Is he correct?
    Updated about 2 hours ago
    Principal researcher: Natasha Grivas
    VERDICT: FLAWED

    In a combative exchange with meteorologist Laura Tobin on ITV’s Good Morning Britain, Mr Kelly argued against the long-term drying out of the Australian landscape…
    Mr Kelly responded: “There’s a few issues there. Firstly, the first 20 years of this century we’ve had more rainfall in Australia than [over] the first 20 years of the last century.”
    He expanded on the claim on his Facebook page, writing…

    The verdict
    Mr Kelly’s claim is flawed.
    Data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology shows an increase in Australia’s annual average rainfall for the first two decades of this century compared to the years 1900 to 1919.
    However, experts contacted by Fact Check said this was a flawed means of assessing rainfall patterns and drying trends overall in view of Australia’s vast landscape and the high variability in rainfall behaviour.
    They said the national average disguised regional differences, which were most starkly felt between the north and the south of the continent…READ ON AND ON

    Experts told Fact Check that because Australia is such a large country national averages wouldn’t reflect regional changes.
    Anna Ukkola, of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of NSW, told Fact Check: “Talking about ‘Australian’ rainfall is just as useful as talking about European or Asian rainfall.”
    “The north/north-west of the country has been getting wetter and drives much of the national increase. But parts of the south-west and south-east have been getting drier, in particular in the cool season …”
    “In south-western Australia, the last two decades have been the driest since records began in 1900.”…READ ON AND ON

    (Ben Henley, a lecturer working in Monash University’s School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment) added: “We’re acutely interested in understanding when and where the changes in the hydrological system occur and what’s driving them.
    “I’m concerned that highlighting particular aspects of the data, without having concern for other aspects, can lead to a broader misunderstanding about the very serious nature of climate change. We have to look at the full picture.
    “Climate change is the single biggest challenge ever faced by humanity. We have absolutely no time to lose.”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-06/fact-check-craig-kelly-rainfall-drought/12016214

    what a pathetic bunch of alarmists. of course, the CAGW mob always look at the full picture!!!

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    pat

    5 Mar: Yahoo: ABC’s GoodMorningAmerica: How coronavirus impacts climate change with emissions reductions
    by Julia Jacobo
    The emergence of the coronavirus as a world health epidemic and fears of it spreading have halted air and ground travel in some regions of the world and stalled it elsewhere, significantly reducing the amount of carbon emissions being released into the atmosphere.

    Pollution monitoring satellites from NASA and the European Space Agency have detected significant decreases of nitrogen dioxide over China since Jan. 1, following the outbreak of the virus — evidence that the noxious gas being emitted by motor vehicles, power plants and industrial facilities has nearly come to a complete stop…

    The question is: Is the reduction in emissions enough to mitigate climate change and the environmental dangers that come with it? According to experts, the answer is no…
    Scientists can find similar reductions in emissions in other points of history where economic slowdowns occurred, such as World War II and the Great Recession, Richard Alley, a geosciences professor at Penn State University who specializes in climate change, told ABC News.
    Events such as those have “made tweaks” in emissions, but they haven’t changed the overall upward trend, Alley said…READ ON
    https://www.yahoo.com/gma/severe-reduction-emissions-coronavirus-not-enough-mitigate-climate-102332169–abc-news-topstories.html

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    Another Ian

    MSNBC’s Brian Williams reads a tweet: “Bloomberg spent $500 million on ads. U.S. Population, 327 million. He could have given each American $1 million”

    NYT Editorial Board Member Mara Gay: “It’s an incredible way of putting it. It’s true. It’s disturbing”

    It’s $1.53 per person pic.twitter.com/dIiwCESgh8

    — Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) March 6, 2020″

    Via

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/03/06/your-moral-and-intellectual-superiors-172/

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    Raven

    So what’s changed with ACORN 2?
    0.43 degrees, apparently. (Senate Estimates – Page 20)

    Senator RENNICK: So what is the margin of error?

    Dr Johnson: I’m not going to do any mathematical gymnastics on it, but those are the records.

    Here’s the Senate Estimates transcript link

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      robert rosicka

      Did I hear Malcolm Roberts called for next interviewer ? Wonder if he pushed what Rennick was after .

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      yarpos

      Dr Johnson , “Dr”, thinks margin of error is mental gymnastics? major facepalm

      I wonder what field his doctorate is in?

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        robert rosicka

        I believe he majored in spin and obfuscation.

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          AndyG55

          Dr Johnson has a Bachelor of Agricultural Science (Honours) and PhD from the University of Queensland and a Masters in Public Administration.

          So, basically NOTHING to do with any actual real knowledge of science or mathematics.

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    yarpos

    Noticed our BOM had a weather photography competition going but sadly I only saw it a couple of days before it closed. I had an idea to send them pictures of 100′s of non compliant weather stations around the country, with highly descriptive labels. I’m probably a bad person.

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    el gordo

    If the GBR bleaches in the next few weeks, with ENSO neutral and sea level not falling, clearly its AGW.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-06/great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching-anthropogenic-climate-change/12029936

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