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More proof that viruses don’t have wings — UPDATE: SlowMo moves!

Posted By Jo Nova On March 15, 2020 @ 2:39 pm In Global Warming | Comments Disabled

BREAKING NEWS: Since writing this Scott Morrison has finally moved to quarantine all arrivals including planes and ships. He’s still two weeks behind the virus, and playing catch up with Jacinda Ardern, the real leader. But finally the bleeding obvious has dawned.

He won’t close schools, and perhaps, suddenly that will now be a viable option, though Sydney still needs short sharp major action to save lives. Could they bear doing no sport or social events for two weeks?

The big risk to most states are now flights from Sydney. Will NSW aim for the “slow bleed” eking out infections over months, hoping none accidentally go wild, or will it aim to wipe this out in three weeks so life gets back to normal, and Australia can play sport again against New Zealand, asap?

With this news, just in the nick of time, the future is now looking better. My prediction: Watch as leaders all round the world pick this up. This is a good boost for nation states and sovereign borders. All eyes are on the EU now where the open border policy has been disastrous — Spain (6,300), Germany (4500) and France (4,500) are where Italy was on 7th March, just over one week ago. Even if they lock-down seriously now their hospitals are set to reach breaking point.

Tell me again how flight bans and quarantines don’t help.

When there is an epidemic coming, flat lines are our Christmas-glitter-favourite trend. This graph from Coronavirus data in Australia shows infections arriving here followed by mysterious long flat lines. The dates are unreadable but we all know what happened and when.      h/t Travis and Chris D

How many thousands of Australians were saved by that one call to stop flights from China?

Italy had the same number of cases as  Australia does now (250) on the 24th of February. Now 1,500 Italians are dead and 20,000 are infected. That’s three weeks “progress”. 

UPDATE: Will NSW follow Italy? On Feb 23rd Italy had 134 cases and 2 deaths. By 7 days later, the tally was 1,700 and 34 deaths. Sun, warmth and a lower population density mean it will be lower in Australia.

Obviously flights from the USA and Italy should have been quarantined a week ago. For all these discovered infections there only needed to be a few that went unnoticed and seeded the community spread we are now seeing in NSW. The only planes we want right now come from Russia, Israel, Taiwan and New Zealand.

Across the Tasman, just like that yesterday — all flight arrivals to New Zealand were quarantined. Voila. New Zealand may end up being the best place on Earth to be in the next month. After this is over, a few leaders will be seen to have saved tens of thousands of lives. Jacinda Ardern will look like a hero. SlowMo will look like a Slow Mo.

NZ could’ve allowed flights from Australia but we’re too high risk.

Slow leaders are choosing to kill people and the economy

To protect people in the rest of Australia, interstate travel could be quarantined. [UPDATE: Maybe this is not necessary now. But the nation would beat this faster if we did]. People could return to their home state with a two-week isolation. If borders were closed now WA, SA, Tas, NT would quickly get a tiny epidemic back under control with contact tracing. Then they could send spare masks and doctors and ventilators to NSW to save lives. Trucks could unload trailers and containers at border stops to be picked up by local drivers in local semi cabs. Or they could be allowed to drive right through but stay in designated secure hotels before returning home.

We could build holiday homes instead of hospitals.

Some genius economist needs to explain how the economy benefits from allowing a mass outbreak-that-we-don’t-have-to-have. Interstate travel, restaurants, schools, businesses in the smaller states could reopen for business with domestic sales and travel in perhaps four weeks time saving thousands of businesses from going under. High risk vulnerable Australians could take a one month holiday in a safe state to wait out any mess in NSW etc.

All this is achievable, but which state leader has the balls to stand against the Open Border Bullies and deadly fatalistic medicos like Brendan-we-have-to-die-Murphy?

NEWS Sunday morning in Australia:
Australian government says a coronavirus general lockdown remains an option

Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy says school closures and stockpiling a fortnight’s food are ‘premature’ at the moment.

School closures and stockpiling a fortnight’s food to prepare for coronavirus self-isolation are “premature” for the general population, the health minister, Greg Hunt, and chief medical officer, Brendan Murphy, have said, though all options are on the table.

Australians are stockpiling right now because it is obvious to soccer moms that the leaders are incompetent.

Asked about the Victorian chief medical officer’s suggestion people should stockpile a fortnight’s worth of food, Murphy replied it was “a little bit premature at the moment”.

Murphy’s plan is to wait til the day before the lockdown then hope the stores have 20 x the normal stock, thus guaranteeing panic buying…

Australians should have been stocking up a little each week for the last four weeks. Easy.

Appearing alongside Hunt on ABC’s Insiders on Sunday, Murphy said that federal authorities are currently recommending that returned travellers socially distance themselves although others should begin “practising” to do the same, especially at-risk groups such as the elderly.

 Lets all “practice” not visiting aged care homes. What does that even mean? We do or don’t do.

Text books will be written on this about “What Not To Do in Public Messaging” and “How to Panic Crowds in Three Easy Steps: Deny, waffle and fog.”

 

Infections by state in Australia

Naughty exponentials lifting off in Australia exactly as predicted.

We know where this goes from here.

Is this what France, Spain and Germany are headed for? Has NSW dodged this bullet?

As community transmission takes off in countries the spread leaps to 40% growth per day but we won’t find out til a week later. Hundreds die, hospitals get overrun. Doctors and nurses get sick. Stroke patients and cardiac arrest victims soon lose the chance to get the help they need. Doctors have to choose which patients get the chance to live in the last ICU bed available. (Italy may abandon the over 80s to their fate).  Then, after we know for sure it’s all gone to pot, leaders do what they should have done three weeks earlier, and they shut all borders, churches, conferences, holidays, travel, schools and universities.

So we pay the price, pay it longer, kill more people, wreck more businesses, and it is all entirely foreseeable. Then we do a Royal Commission later to make up excuses to cover the asses.

We will get this outbreak under control

We know how to stop it. Are we willing to give up four weeks of football, weekends away, movies, and some money or would we rather do that for 2 months and kill lots of people as well?

 

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Coronavirus Background: ☀ The Demographics: the young are spared, but the severity increases with age, and slightly more for men than women. ☀ The Ro is 2 – 3 and exponential curves are steep. How Coronavirus kills: why the number of ICU units matters so much. ☀ Illness progression: Dry coughs and Fevers, Aches. In 15% of people, by day 5 breathing trouble starts. In 3% (?) by day 8 they may need an ICU (intensive care unit). ☀ The good case of Singapore but the ominous calculations of how fast the ICU beds may run out. ☀ The story of how American Samoa avoided Flu Deaths with quarantine in 1918. ☀

Economics: ☀ The huge impact on the Chinese economy, the awful case of Iran.☀

Beware UN advice:Ethiopian WHO chief was part of China’s debt trap diplomacy ☀

Stats and Data: John Hopkins Live Map Worldometer

 

 

 

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