JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks


Advertising


Australian Speakers Agency



GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper



Archives

More proof that viruses don’t have wings — UPDATE: SlowMo moves!

BREAKING NEWS: Since writing this Scott Morrison has finally moved to quarantine all arrivals including planes and ships. He’s still two weeks behind the virus, and playing catch up with Jacinda Ardern, the real leader. But finally the bleeding obvious has dawned.

He won’t close schools, and perhaps, suddenly that will now be a viable option, though Sydney still needs short sharp major action to save lives. Could they bear doing no sport or social events for two weeks?

The big risk to most states are now flights from Sydney. Will NSW aim for the “slow bleed” eking out infections over months, hoping none accidentally go wild, or will it aim to wipe this out in three weeks so life gets back to normal, and Australia can play sport again against New Zealand, asap?

With this news, just in the nick of time, the future is now looking better. My prediction: Watch as leaders all round the world pick this up. This is a good boost for nation states and sovereign borders. All eyes are on the EU now where the open border policy has been disastrous — Spain (6,300), Germany (4500) and France (4,500) are where Italy was on 7th March, just over one week ago. Even if they lock-down seriously now their hospitals are set to reach breaking point.

Tell me again how flight bans and quarantines don’t help.

When there is an epidemic coming, flat lines are our Christmas-glitter-favourite trend. This graph from Coronavirus data in Australia shows infections arriving here followed by mysterious long flat lines. The dates are unreadable but we all know what happened and when.      h/t Travis and Chris D

How many thousands of Australians were saved by that one call to stop flights from China?

Italy had the same number of cases as  Australia does now (250) on the 24th of February. Now 1,500 Italians are dead and 20,000 are infected. That’s three weeks “progress”. 

UPDATE: Will NSW follow Italy? On Feb 23rd Italy had 134 cases and 2 deaths. By 7 days later, the tally was 1,700 and 34 deaths. Sun, warmth and a lower population density mean it will be lower in Australia.

Obviously flights from the USA and Italy should have been quarantined a week ago. For all these discovered infections there only needed to be a few that went unnoticed and seeded the community spread we are now seeing in NSW. The only planes we want right now come from Russia, Israel, Taiwan and New Zealand.

Across the Tasman, just like that yesterday — all flight arrivals to New Zealand were quarantined. Voila. New Zealand may end up being the best place on Earth to be in the next month. After this is over, a few leaders will be seen to have saved tens of thousands of lives. Jacinda Ardern will look like a hero. SlowMo will look like a Slow Mo.

NZ could’ve allowed flights from Australia but we’re too high risk.

Slow leaders are choosing to kill people and the economy

To protect people in the rest of Australia, interstate travel could be quarantined. [UPDATE: Maybe this is not necessary now. But the nation would beat this faster if we did]. People could return to their home state with a two-week isolation. If borders were closed now WA, SA, Tas, NT would quickly get a tiny epidemic back under control with contact tracing. Then they could send spare masks and doctors and ventilators to NSW to save lives. Trucks could unload trailers and containers at border stops to be picked up by local drivers in local semi cabs. Or they could be allowed to drive right through but stay in designated secure hotels before returning home.

We could build holiday homes instead of hospitals.

Some genius economist needs to explain how the economy benefits from allowing a mass outbreak-that-we-don’t-have-to-have. Interstate travel, restaurants, schools, businesses in the smaller states could reopen for business with domestic sales and travel in perhaps four weeks time saving thousands of businesses from going under. High risk vulnerable Australians could take a one month holiday in a safe state to wait out any mess in NSW etc.

All this is achievable, but which state leader has the balls to stand against the Open Border Bullies and deadly fatalistic medicos like Brendan-we-have-to-die-Murphy?

NEWS Sunday morning in Australia:
Australian government says a coronavirus general lockdown remains an option

Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy says school closures and stockpiling a fortnight’s food are ‘premature’ at the moment.

School closures and stockpiling a fortnight’s food to prepare for coronavirus self-isolation are “premature” for the general population, the health minister, Greg Hunt, and chief medical officer, Brendan Murphy, have said, though all options are on the table.

Australians are stockpiling right now because it is obvious to soccer moms that the leaders are incompetent.

Asked about the Victorian chief medical officer’s suggestion people should stockpile a fortnight’s worth of food, Murphy replied it was “a little bit premature at the moment”.

Murphy’s plan is to wait til the day before the lockdown then hope the stores have 20 x the normal stock, thus guaranteeing panic buying…

Australians should have been stocking up a little each week for the last four weeks. Easy.

Appearing alongside Hunt on ABC’s Insiders on Sunday, Murphy said that federal authorities are currently recommending that returned travellers socially distance themselves although others should begin “practising” to do the same, especially at-risk groups such as the elderly.

 Lets all “practice” not visiting aged care homes. What does that even mean? We do or don’t do.

Text books will be written on this about “What Not To Do in Public Messaging” and “How to Panic Crowds in Three Easy Steps: Deny, waffle and fog.”

 

Infections by state in Australia

Naughty exponentials lifting off in Australia exactly as predicted.

We know where this goes from here.

Is this what France, Spain and Germany are headed for? Has NSW dodged this bullet?

As community transmission takes off in countries the spread leaps to 40% growth per day but we won’t find out til a week later. Hundreds die, hospitals get overrun. Doctors and nurses get sick. Stroke patients and cardiac arrest victims soon lose the chance to get the help they need. Doctors have to choose which patients get the chance to live in the last ICU bed available. (Italy may abandon the over 80s to their fate).  Then, after we know for sure it’s all gone to pot, leaders do what they should have done three weeks earlier, and they shut all borders, churches, conferences, holidays, travel, schools and universities.

So we pay the price, pay it longer, kill more people, wreck more businesses, and it is all entirely foreseeable. Then we do a Royal Commission later to make up excuses to cover the asses.

We will get this outbreak under control

We know how to stop it. Are we willing to give up four weeks of football, weekends away, movies, and some money or would we rather do that for 2 months and kill lots of people as well?

 

______________________________________________

Coronavirus Background: ☀ The Demographics: the young are spared, but the severity increases with age, and slightly more for men than women. ☀ The Ro is 2 – 3 and exponential curves are steep. How Coronavirus kills: why the number of ICU units matters so much. ☀ Illness progression: Dry coughs and Fevers, Aches. In 15% of people, by day 5 breathing trouble starts. In 3% (?) by day 8 they may need an ICU (intensive care unit). ☀ The good case of Singapore but the ominous calculations of how fast the ICU beds may run out. ☀ The story of how American Samoa avoided Flu Deaths with quarantine in 1918. ☀

Economics: ☀ The huge impact on the Chinese economy, the awful case of Iran.☀

Beware UN advice:Ethiopian WHO chief was part of China’s debt trap diplomacy ☀

Stats and Data: John Hopkins Live Map Worldometer

 

 

 

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.8/10 (68 votes cast)
More proof that viruses don't have wings -- UPDATE: SlowMo moves!, 9.8 out of 10 based on 68 ratings

369 comments to More proof that viruses don’t have wings — UPDATE: SlowMo moves!

  • #
    WXcycles

    Belated, but limiting the sources of growth will still matter.

    131

    • #
      Gino

      As will the increase in testing the public for infection, as per South Korea. Bringing these two ideas together and we get a strong response that is proven to be the most effective. And as it turns out, we have all the facilities, infrastructure and strategies to introduce Random Virus Testing. While RBT might bring in revenues, RVT will actually save lives. Get the Police force doing something positive for the effort to bring this under control.

      50

    • #
      Geoff

      Anyone over 60 needs to go into lock down. Work from home.

      Sydney needs to be quarantined from flights.

      The stock market should be closed.

      30

      • #
        Lionell Griffith

        I am almost 83 and have worked from home for the past 15 years full time and before that part time. I live in a basement apartment in a 6 flat that has block and brick walls almost 2 feet thick. It is more like a cave with windows than a home. Every thing can be delivered. Any outside work I do can be done over my broadband internet connection. Using Microsoft Quick Assist, I can connect to a remote computer and control it from my computer as well as deliver my work product over the internet.

        It is winter outside so I really don’t want to go outside. When spring comes, that is a different matter. My guess is that I will be self quarantined until mid to late summer. I am willing to do this and more because I am a primary target for a poor outcome if I get infected with any kind of influenza let alone CORVID-19.

        Here in the US, the official lockdown is in process with public facilities, sports events, and travel to and from foreign places are mostly closed down for an indefinite period of time. It seems, at long last, we are taking this CORVID-19 seriously.

        I don’t fear CORVID-19 but I respect it and will do whatever I can to avoid it.

        110

        • #

          I know it is winter/early spring but get some sun, move those legs and pump that blood. I hope that people who are in confinement to mitigate against disease transmission are also mitigating against the negative affects of confinement.

          20

      • #
        Alan Burdon

        Over 60s to work from home? How many of them do you think are in jobs that make that remotely possible?

        20

        • #
          Lionell Griffith

          I am not responsible for what they do. They made their own choices as did I. My choices and effort made my being able to work from home. All by willful and purposeful action. There’s didn’t. That they can’t doesn’t obligate me to anything even for a millisecond. It’s their problem, not mine.

          10

  • #
    Dennis

    Eventually, everyone will be quarantined at home with no sports to watch and in nine months time a baby boom will take place.

    And they will be called the Coronials.

    662

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    I heartily agree, Jo
    Also, are we prepared to provide the necessities of food, shelter and clothing to those who will be without income for the 4 weeks or 4 months necessary to ride out this pandemic

    /please note that according to the Lord of Comments (…OZ, not Bill), I’m not qualified to offer opinions on this topic

    95

    • #
      WXcycles

      Peter, there needs to be support for phone and internet connected transaction. This is a problem for people using prepaid services as they can’t go to the shop to buy another prepaid voucher, especially if they have no credit cards to transact a purchase of phone credit online. No internet access or phone credit means no bills get paid via that means and many essential vocational, economic and societal processes will stop. People without communications can’t order essential supplies or request emergency medical help either. Same applies to people who have no access to a mask to go out. I interpreted the Govt’s ‘sickness payment’ as a means to supply money toward that end, and also to use to stock-up on emergency food. But if the payments are not paid for another 3 to 5 weeks, this may be too late to use it for that purpose if shops are not opening.

      Plus it’s not being made clear that people may need that money in a bank account (not in cash) to transact, as cash payments from your wallet and hands may not be viable from about when that money is finally delivered. And would you want to take change from a checkout at that point? Plus bank charges on cashless transactions must be suspended for the duration to enable payments without the usual excess bank rorting.

      121

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Yep – and planning for that should have taken place, but I don’t for a moment think that it has. Imagine for the moment that you lose around 10% of the total workforce on any particular day. These are people who are self isolating, or are infected. How do you prioritise essential services like power, internet etc? For example, if it was power, would you draft all the power certified electricians – these are privately employed, but are able to install, manage and maintain equipment like a substation. That would ensure manpower to keep electricity flowing to houses, at the expense of new construction. Similarly this could be applied to water and sewage etc. I also know that defense tends to install and maintain its own power and water infrastructure, and they could also be used in ‘keeping the lights on’.

        Similarly would it be possible for courier and delivery services to be combined with standard post services to ensure capacity when ordering food and groceries on line.

        This is the sort of planning I wish the authorities were prioritising, but if they are, strangely they are being very quiet about it.

        It is my belief that statements like ‘your essential services are guaranteed ‘ would help ease the unease and panic being evidenced ATM

        81

        • #
          Slithers

          Hi Peter,
          This is a re-post from weekend unthreaded.
          Beware Politicians at WORK!

          On the 24th February I formally asked in writing, directed at the Local Shire Council, with my name and contact details supplied, if there were any contingency plans to care for 10% of the population requiring Quarantine due to the Conv-19 situation and needing a hospital bed or significant home care.
          I saw my local council member at the local Bowling Club on 13th March and asked that question again.
          I was told that the council is having a meeting next week to discus what measures can be taken!
          I wonder if I will get a formal reply some time soon?

          Our Politicians at work!

          150

    • #
      Dennis

      Peter, I read somewhere today that the Federal Government has arranged for the ADF to be mobilised to assist with law and order, to provide tent hospitals and other duties including distribution of food and fuel if necessary.

      71

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Putting troops on the street for law and order is martial law , no matter how you want to pretty they want to dress it up….

        113

        • #
          Dennis

          Civilian Police are unable to cope with civil disobedience without help, the NSW Police Commissioner now retired explained during his final months as Commissioner that an arrangement with the Federal Government and the ADF provided Commando and other Army support for Police if required, at that time in relation to terrorism.

          Soldiers on the streets would be crowd control assisting Police, guarding hospitals and other places as needed. Most of us would be safer and have no need for concern.

          If the worst scenario developed.

          133

        • #
          Kevin Lohse

          it’s not martial law, it’s” aid to the civil power”. Normal law is still in force but the police are augmented by the military who assist the police in their duties. By rights, soldiers should not be operating without a police officer in attendance. If martial law is declared, normal law is suspended in favour of military law and the soldiers are in charge.

          185

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Understood..but give it time…hope im wrong…

            82

          • #
            yarpos

            The mentality around all this is really getting out of hand , it almost like mortality rate and survival rate have reversed in peoples heads.

            71

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              Agreed.

              While mortaility rate for people say in thier 70s in Italy is 5-7%, it also means the survival rate is 93-95%, and most of the mortalities are people with pre-existing medical conditions, based on the official Italian reports i have cited here and previously.

              81

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Peter I have agreed with you completely on this plague issue.
      Why the backhander above ?

      32

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        It’s not you Bill.

        32

        • #
          el gordo

          The PM is on a war footing and will do whatever it takes to save his people.

          52

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            el gordo – that is the most cynical comment I’ve ever seen from you. Who are ‘his people’ in this context, it certainly wasn’t those bushfire victims last time.

            210

            • #
              el gordo

              Goodness gracious, you’re being far too precious.

              The PM is belatedly in control, just like the bushfire season. By the way, I mentioned at the time that a family from Dargan were staying at my place for a week and then conditions improved so they went back. Only to be forced out again and this time the village burnt down.

              The bushfires and the virus should be bipartisan.

              100

            • #
              yarpos

              I wonder what you would have done for the bushfire victims at Federal level that would have been better. Just another Harry Hindsight.

              60

    • #

      Yes agreed Peter. See my comment below. Spell out the plan in detail instead of telling people to stay calm and “we have a secret plan”. “Trust us” as our ministers catch this virus and we ourselves ignore our own quarantine rules.

      251

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        Jo,

        “playing catch up with Jacinta Ardern, the real leader”.

        P U H – L E E Z E ! Have you got a temperature?

        Her degree was in Political Communication (or sumpthink) and her given (Mormon) name is Jacinda: ‘d’ as in propaganda or D-minus.

        She told porkies one year ago and she’s still rolling in pig-ship today.

        252

        • #

          Fixed — thanks Greg. You can see how much attention I’ve paid to Jacinda.

          But I call it like I see, regardless of partisan politics. On this topic, she’s been less squeezed, had more space to move to be among the first to act. But conservatives have been completely blindsided by this topic. Damn shame.

          Though Albanese and state leaders of all flavours have dismally failed here as well.

          A few state Health Chiefs are right.

          142

          • #
            krm

            Maybe the grass is greener on the other side of the fence, but we’d swap Ardern for your Morrison in a heartbeat. The Labour government here in NZ is irretrievably incompetent. Expect mismanagement of the voluntary self-isolation plan, which will turn out to be a completely ineffective form of quarantine.

            150

          • #
            DOC

            From above, or underneath if you prefer, at the end of all this looking back , the great reality will be
            that the major problem the world outside China has had is the total lack of practical expertise in the
            advisory medical bodies and in the ‘presenting problem’ expectations of the modern politicians. I think it wasn’t/isn’t
            a lack of knowledge that’s the problem. Epidemiological training would involve dissecting and dicing every epidemic that’s
            happened in 600years.

            Maybe it’s a matter that the professional groups and politicians were all caught in the spotlight, stunned to a state of
            disbelief that COVID-19 was lethal and actually exploding in their midst. The knowledge is there but the practical execution
            it demands seem grossly excessive in social effects, so foreign to people that had been used to using mumbo jumbo for so long,
            as any similar problem that raised its head in the last 50years – since the polio scare – had simply passed by.

            None of them would have seen anything like it before. Those that had experienced the polio problem professionally and
            dealt with it, would be in their 90′s or dead. For all the problems with ‘Bird Flue’, SARS etc, I don’t recall Australia having
            more than a little scare that it might come.

            I take my hat off to Jo for her rapid statistical analysis and consequent recommendations to hit hard and hit swiftly.
            I can only think that those same statistics must have been known to the Epidemiologists. Why were they so reticent to
            call it out? With our great failure to breed any politician interested in maths and sciences these days (which places us
            in the same situation with the climate) we see the population suffers when politicians dither by worrying about
            their professional consequences which has been their prime concern without disaster for so long. This disease needs max speed in countering and loves ditherers.

            To give Morrison, who is here derided as Slo Mo, his due, he acted in those 2 blocking moves off his own bat against
            advice. To me, that puts the problem squarely on the shoulders of the professional medical advisors. Why could they
            not deduce exactly the same from the statistics – presuming they were into those statistics – that the amateur epidemiologist, Jo (apologies Jo if I got that wrong) derived from what she saw. Or is it a fact they were too cowed by the size of the social
            disruption such advice as they would have to recommend be abruptly brought down upon our comfortable existence.
            Maybe they still are! That would be unforgivable. I

            20

          • #
            Ian Hilliar

            Jacinda Adern’s actions were not early., or even strong, compared to Modhi’s actions in India. Overnight the Indian government cancelled All visas for inbound visitors, except for holders of UN or diplomatic passports. The world’s MSM has highlighted Adern, and basically ignored Modhi…. do you think it could be because Jacinda is a lefty leader, while Modhi is not?

            60

        • #
          a happy little debunker

          That would be the same Jacinda Adern that allowed the proposed 2017 gun law reforms to collapse as she took control of the NZ parliament.

          The Jacinda Adern that personally eased NZ gun laws in 2018 that helped enable the 2019 massacre.

          The woman that publicly cloaked herself in the blood of the Christchurch victims?

          That woman is no leader – she is a public menace and should long have been hounded from office for her actions.

          200

        • #
          Susan Fraser

          What a bunch of misogynist vomit.
          Jacinta and its derivatives such as Jacinda is Greek name meaning beautiful.

          317

          • #
            Greg in NZ

            Susan – Persian for lily, Egyptian/Coptic for lotus flower, modern Hebrew for rose/flower (borrowed from the Greeks as per usual) – we ‘masculinists’ were playing the ball not the woman.

            Actions as opposed to words. Dare I say, logic versus emotion, comrade? And a happy Saint Paddy’s Day to you, tomorrow, too: unless you celebrate the luck o’ the Irish with an imaginary Saint Patricia’s Day (?).

            40

  • #
    Dennis

    Knowing that Australia and New Zealand act in unison on matters covered by CER (Close Economic Relations) including Immigration, PM Morrison is not playing catch up with PM Ardern, in fact I have earlier read complaints similar to complaints here about the NZ government’s handling of the coronavirus aimed at PM Ardern.

    She announced the new measures first but there would have been prior discussion and agreement between our two nations and CER partners, also Anzus Treaty and others.

    A Prime Minister and Cabinet Ministers rely on the advice of government department employees and consultants, and foreign sources such as UN WHO.

    Generally, and the bushfire season is another example, elected government is blamed for what are government department recommendations if and when a ministerial decision is required.

    52

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Are the relevant government officials giving competent and useful advice ?
      Given that this plague has grown like topsy and that alternative common sense advice was available,
      The answer is no !
      So why are our elected pollies still listening to these incompetents ?

      71

      • #
        Dennis

        Bill, I don’t believe that the PM and Cabinet have any other choice but to follow the advice they are given, assess the logistics and implement.

        They are like a public company board of directors who rely on the executives to manage the business, in government example government departments.

        Yes Minister was not far off the truth a cabinet minister once told me.

        81

        • #

          If the PM is not the one responsible for calling the shots, then who is? The Deep State? SlowMo, sadly, made the misjudgment to follow terrible advice. The deaths that follow are all his as they were avoidable.

          Brendan Murphy should be sacked for trying to put Australian economic interests above health.

          I don’t buy for a minute that Morrison is a leader here. He only closed our borders with China after Trump did, and he only instigated a two week quarantine after Ardern did.

          In both cases Australians were proportionately at higher risk and more vulnerable than the US and NZ at the time those decisions were made.

          295

          • #
            WXcycles

            Which is odd given that not so long ago Scomo was senior minister in charge of seeing off the refo hordes and protected the nation’s sovereign sanctity. Did a donors list cloud such moral-clarity? With a triage you have the rationale for justifying your priorities.

            40

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            If the PM is not the one responsible for calling the shots, then who is?

            He is. His Government is. Nobody else.

            The sad thing here is that the Government is looking to set up a scape-goat if and when things go wrong.

            I didn’t vote for the so-called “experts. I didn’t vote for the lobbyists. I didn’t vote for the public servants. I voted for a Government that would serve the interests of every Australian citizen. I voted for a Government that I expected would take the tough decisions – not some weak-willed sell-out to vested interests.

            100

          • #
            yarpos

            Seems like we should really focus on the fact that a decison has been made , not whether we get an elephant stamp for being first to it. Second guessing and hindsight is rampant in these situations when we really need to be looking forward to the next best decision that can be made.

            I wonder how many crtics have ever made really hard impactful decisions in their lives? Its very easy to sit on the sidelines and carp (usually with hindsight) but less so to make decisons amidst a lot of swirling information arriving not as conveniently and sequentially as people like to think later, and all while getting advice and inputs from a range of people ranging from competent to panic stricken.

            100

          • #
            dinn, rob

            who is in charge? mostly corporate multinationals, arch-globalists, stuff like that. news:
            ……
            The caseload in Italy topped 24,700, even as the entire country has been locked down for a week… Chinese journalists, buoyed by an outpouring of support from the public and widespread calls for free speech, are fighting back in a rare challenge to the ruling Communist Party.
            They are publishing hard-hitting exposés describing government cover-ups and failures in the health care system. They are circulating passionate calls for press freedom. They are using social media to draw attention to injustice and abuse, circumventing an onslaught of propaganda orders. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/world/coronavirus-live.html
            ……………………………..
            3-15 2000/5753= increase/day Spain = 35%.
            800/1420= “ Switz. = 56%.
            https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51897069
            …………………………………..
            3-15 banned entry by S. Africa from high-risk countries: Italy; Iran; South Korea; Spain; Germany; US; United Kingdom and China starting March 18.
            https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-2-03-15-20-intl-hnk/index.html
            ……………………………………..
            3-14 1365/12729= 11% increase/day Iran https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8111829/Russia-shuts-land-borders-New-Zealand-introduces-toughest-border-restrictions-world.html
            ………………………
            3-9-20 Senegal (4), Cameroon (2), Algeria (20), Togo (1), South Africa (3). https://www.africanews.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-south-africa-confirms-first-case/ Presently S. Africa around 16 cases.
            …………………
            3-14 1,052 positive tests Norway. The Prime Minister also asked that Norwegian citizens return home from their mountain cabins. Thousands of people have left their homes for their cabins since the emergency measures were brought in on Thursday. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/03/14/norway-closes-all-airports-to-foreigners-as-coronavirus-cases-mount/#6ae3b0cf1913
            ………………………….
            3-15 Denmark is now at 864 cases. http://cphpost.dk/?p=111178 Sweden is at “don’t ask, don’t tell; not important.”
            …………………………………..
            3-15 Belgium 197/689= 29% increase/day https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/100450/coronavirus197-new-cases-since-saturday-bringing-total-to-886/
            ………………………….
            3-1123 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Poland https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/one-hundred-twenty-three-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-in-poland-11178
            ……………………………….
            3-15 110 positive cases India; Singapore 226 cases, 14 new, 7% increase/day. Italy 3590/21157= 17* increase/day https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/coronavirus-cases-in-india-live-news-latest-updates-march15/liveblog/74633220.cms
            …………………………………….

            30

          • #
            Doc

            Not being a fly on the wall about what advice is given and received at these
            High stakes meetings, it is impossible to know what the conversations were
            that took place. Morrison as PM traditionally carries the can for mistakes made.
            The published news is, Morrison acted against the received advice that came
            from the professional epidemiological advisers after those meetings.

            One can usually smell a cover-up, so I don’t follow the argument that Morrison is covering up .
            Unless someone has read the minutes of any of the meetings of this committee or has
            been leaked information from someone who was an attendee or is known to have read
            the minutes, it would appear that Morrison is being scapegoated for tardiness in
            the response to this epidemic.

            I would suggest that unless you believe a lay person advertising geek has more
            Knowledge than the alleged experts on handling infectious diseases, that Morrison
            has previously acted in accordance with the advice received. That advice may not have
            been the advice others not invited to be party to the emergency committee, nor
            according to the statistics that advisory committee should have at its disposal.

            Unless there is other evidence, it would seem that by ignoring the advice given at
            the more recent meetings and bringing down the boom on entrance to Australia in
            spite of being given contrary advice by his advisory body, then I would consider there
            Is more evidence to say the advisory committee is more likely to have been remiss all
            along. Not Morrison.

            As there is no proof either way, I guess people can agree to disagree. IMO what
            has been in the press at least points in one direction, and it’s not Morrison. The
            alternative presumes that the non scientist, non mathematician, non medical
            PM made his decisions on purely political grounds. Just consider what that would require
            To be the mindset of our PM concerning the lives and wellbeing of Australians. I can
            believe a lot of things about our politicians, but I see nothing to sustain such a
            belief about our PM. I can see the huge weight of decision making placed on the
            shoulders of those advisors about the meaning of their decisions to the people, that
            it would be inhuman not to be influenced to advise a more step by step approach
            hoping to be able to avoid a single big crash move. Doesn’t make anything right, but
            with no personal experience with such an epidemic, it’s understandable.
            .
            sustain.

            00

        • #
          John in Oz

          Shouldn’t a ‘leader’ listen to advice but make their own decisions on what to do based on that advice?

          The medical advisors can give info on infection rates, ways to manage the medical issues, etc but the leader has to decide what to do, taking into account additional factors, such as the effect on the economy.

          The sitting party also has the opposition sniping at them, regardless of the decisions made. They never miss an opportunity to tell us that they would do things differently and better. This probably has as much effect on the decisions made as the health and economic issues.

          110

          • #
            TedM

            Unfortunately ScoMo is really about compromises. When it comes to the economy vs the health and lives of the Australian people there should be no compromise. The way it now stands there will be lost work time due to absences resulting from infection, we will inevitably be forced into a lock down that is longer than would be the case if early action had been taken. So it will be more sickness, more lives lost and worse damage to the economy.

            60

    • #
      Dennis

      An example of cooperation from 29 January extracted from the NZ Herald ..

      “Ardern on Wednesday afternoon confirmed New Zealand would be working with Australia on a “joint ANZAC assisted departure” from Wuhan.

      “Specific details of the evacuation plan, including the medical protocols that will be applied to returning New Zealanders, and access arrangements on the ground in China are being worked through by officials,” she said.”

      20

      • #

        So Aus-NZ cooperation amounted to a couple of joint flight schedules.

        Look I like Scott Morrison, but he’s been dragged into action by other people. So possibly has Trump.

        A leaders job is always to find the best advice — not to blindly follow the stooges put into “advisory roles” by some select unelectable committee.

        But Albanese has totally missed the boat on this one. Big easy opportunity to show leadership material. Total failure.

        161

        • #
          Lank

          I arrived at Sydney airport from Christchurch 8 days ago and was astonished by the lack of any ‘help’ or advice at Mascot international. The first two automatic entry machines I visited were broken or out of paper cards. The third asked if I’d been to China, Italy or Iran and assumed I was honest when answering. There were no advise handouts to explain what I should do if I felt unwell. I visited a bathroom at the luggage collection area which had run out of hand wash soap and paper towels. I left the airport and caught the train into the city. The carriage I took was filthy and few people wore masks, despite several that had coughs and runny noses. I hope Sydney’s preparation has improved!

          120

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Agree entirely Jo on all points
          Scomo was elected by us to act as PM for the people of Australia
          Not to act for the unelected bureaucrat advisers !

          As for Albanese & ALP ?
          Labor is completely missing in action.
          Maybe they are still trying to get a lead from their ( non parliamentary )faction bosses

          81

        • #
          Streetcred

          A leaders job is always to find the best advice — not to blindly follow the stooges put into “advisory roles” by some select unelectable committee.

          Maybe we just don’t have the ‘smarts’ in Australia … just bureaucratic hacks in comfy employment; just look at the ‘climate’ BS emanating from the bureaucrats … are you prepared to trust these people? Do you seriously trust the UN and WHO ? You’d have rocks in your head to do so.

          Trump shut down China travel plans months ago and was roundly criticised by the Dimocrats and MSM … could you have imagined what the MSM and ‘do-goodies’ would have done here had ScoMo followed suit ?

          Stop panicking ! Stop spreading panic ! You have a responsibility to think and report clearly.

          https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/trumps_ultrasonic_whistle_exposes_vermin_infestation.html

          https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/03/drew_pinsky_once_again_attacks_americas_morally_corrupt_media.html

          I refuse to be panicked ( a bit of military service reality helps ) and I’m going to continue to go about my business and take the usual precautions as I would normally around seemingly sick people.

          40

    • #
      Ross

      Dennis

      I’m not sure who wrote the bit at the top of Jo’s thread but Ardern is NOT THE LEADER in this. Morrison had done a lot more before Ardern did anything. She announced some moves on Saturday only because she had taken a hammering on social media.

      Most believed she was waiting until after today, when there was a planned memorial for the Christchurch shooting at the mosques a year ago.This was a memorial which the Muslim community publicly said they did not really want. But Ardern can’t miss a photo opportunity.
      She eventually cancelled the memorial service on Saturday and put out the moves to address the virus issue.

      So Ardern is the one playing catch up on the issue.

      140

      • #
        farmerbraun

        Ain’t that the truth.
        Once Trump had been roundly vilified by all and sundry , Cinderella went ahead and did the same thing; only two weeks too late.

        90

  • #
    GreatAuntJanet

    Let your elderly or vulnerable/helpless neighbours know that they can ask you for help with grocery, medicine shopping if infection becomes widespread in your area; they will probably be fearful – quite rightly – of going out to shops and may not be tech savvy enough to order online.

    I’m in a very small town and we’ve already been talking to each other about this kind of thing – might be more difficult in a more urban place, but these kind of actions can be something we can all do to help – as long as we are still allowed out.

    131

    • #
      beowulf

      Woolies is suspending household deliveries in VIC due to “extraordinary” demand. Orders are being refunded. Priority is being given to re-stocking shelves. The other grocery chains will be overwhelmed now and probably follow. So there goes that “solution” to home quarantine.
      The supermarket is looking to resume online services out of its stores “as soon as possible”.

      50

      • #
        GD

        Priority is being given to re-stocking shelves.

        Priority should be given to online orders. My understanding is that online orders are compiled from the supermarket shelves, not from a warehouse. This is a ridiculous policy.

        Online orders should be compiled from the warehouse, or ‘out the back’ at Coles and Woolies stores. That way priority could be given to online orders, thereby reducing the number of customers in-store and the risk of contamination.

        40

        • #
          yarpos

          Not ridiculous at all. That is were the product is broken down to unit level, that is where the customer is and where delivery is most efficient. Warehouses are not set up for this type of work and are too centralised to make delivery work. You may be surprised how lean “out the back” runs in some operations, although rapidly emptying shlves these days should be a bit of a clue.

          80

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            And another good reason to have some of your own stash at home….hopefully as people settle down it will even things out. The system will hold together – as long as people stay calm.

            One of the reasons Ive been posting official data from Italy and other countries, is to give what appears to be real information. So many articles out on the web ( who should know better ) quote from Chinese data, which we know is highly likely distorted by CCP politics, and likely cant be trusted.

            Of course any offical info is likely to be tweaked, although the Italian data I think looks reasonable.

            40

  • #
    PeterS

    We know how to stop it. Are we willing to give up four weeks of football, weekends away, movies, and some money or would we rather do that for 2 months and kill lots of people as well?

    I don’t understand the last bit. I have no problem doing without things like sport, travelling, movies etc for however long it takes, be it 4 weeks, 2 months or more. This is provided of course people still can procure food and other essentials without the panic buying that’s occurring now on some items. Somehow the panic buying has to cease. If necessary stamps should be issued if it gets really out of control.

    61

    • #

      Panic buying will stop as soon as the calm voice of a competent leader appears and tells us honestly what his plan is. Two days ago Morrison was planning to attend church, not do self-isolation and just assure us that stock piling was unnecessary without any numbers, projections, reasons, or any realistic information at all.

      When they stop treating the people like they are stupid the people will stop “acting stupidly”.

      So tell the people if we need to do a lockdown:
      1. This is how we pick the point a lockdown is necessary.
      2. These are how many days you have to save up food for and when you should start.
      3. Point out it is greedy and selfish to take more (shopping limits could have been set a week ago).
      4. Ask people to shop for their elderly friends and relatives.
      5. Explain how all food deliveries will continue no matter what and delivery people and packers will be tested regularly. These people should be given pay rises temporarily and asked to quarantine themselves from all risk events other than delivery.
      6. Explain how we will guarantee the food and supply chain right back to the farm and factory. All these workers are essential. Pay them all extra. Test them. Require them to quarantine — only travelling to work and home.

      No one would panic at the thought of having to stay home for two weeks as long as they know they can get food if they need it, and an ambulance and a hospital bed if that call.

      This is the kind of detail that will stop the panic buying. Instead the government said we are prepared and we may not have enough beds.

      262

      • #
        Vishnu

        Jo – agree totally and bravo to your posts on the crisis in terms of quality information. I would like to say otherwise, but SloMo seems indecisive, slow and unconvincing while attempting “we will fight them on the beaches” lectures about being “all in this together”. It will hurt but serious leadership looks like “lock it down hard and fast”. And yes protect our food and pharmaceuticals supply chains and the workers involved.

        111

      • #
        Peter C

        Dear Jo,

        Your several recent responses are full of the very important points that our government must address.

        I am thinking of writing (another ) letter to the PM, or maybe to other people in the Liberal Party with more clout.

        May I quote you? Or would you prefer if I take your points without attribution.

        70

        • #

          Please quote me. I am delighted to see words here being shared. I hope that 1000 readers writing letters all over can achieve far more than me writing 2 or 3 myself.

          Thank you.

          All links in attribution help the cause. Merci.

          120

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Jo we need to add a non food point to your list above
        7: Explain that emergency services will be maintained – police, fire, medical. hospital staff & aged care staff. And that these staff will be asked to self quarantine, apart from their travel to their emergency services work.

        70

        • #

          Yes. Good point. Right now it’s a moment for people who do our emergency services, and garbage collection, food handling, and medical care to all be given the top billing and protected.

          Accountants, lawyers, uni profs, are all largely irrelevant now. Let them stay home and others can have a moment in the sun.

          100

      • #
        PeterS

        I doubt very much people will stop panicking if they are told to stay home for two weeks. There would have to be some control over how much people will buy at the shops. Otherwise there will be a major run by people who still won’t trust the government about the two week “curfew”. The rest will suffer shortages and they too will then panic perhaps leading to violence.

        21

      • #
        SamfromNZ

        Jo, you lost me when I read your praise of Jacinda Ardern. She is a career politician who couldn’t lead her way out of a wet paper bag. I guarantee she had zero influence over the decisions you cite – she would have been told exactly what to say.

        Our supermarket shelves will be as empty as yours soon as we in NZ have received no advice that will limit panic buying, such as the suggestions you make. All we’ve had is a requirement for people coming in to the country to ‘self isolate’, with no idea how the govt. might police it. If that looks like strong leadership then I’m sad for your country.

        90

      • #
        yarpos

        panic buying will stop when people run out of money and space

        the public have no faith in the media or politicians (any flavour)

        40

        • #
          Greg in NZ

          Where’s that [SOP] – Prophetess Of Sweden – when the kiddies need her? Hello cheese-grater, come in Greta! Maybe her father/minders have run out of script material… totally existential!

          [ Much better] AD

          30

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Jo that website charts that Travis gave us the link to
    Was the final straw.
    It showed us all where this disease was coming from
    And guess what 20 of the people bringing it to Australia were flying in from the USA with no quarantine rules at all !
    Thanks Travis !
    Thanks Jo !

    70

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      And today the number of COVID 19 cases SA increased to 20.
      A woman flew home from the states and is infected.
      But the authorities are sort of saying to the people on the plane
      “Don’t panic ! She was not symptomatic so you didn’t get infected “

      50

      • #
        Analitik

        She was not symptomatic so you didn’t get infected

        Well that is the official government and MSM line as shown by the response to Peter Dutton’s infection.

        That they refuse to recognise that pre-symtomatic infection has been shown to be occurring since China first publicly acknowledge the disease at all is staggering. The Richard Wilkins / Tom Hanks transmission case should make this amply clear on a local level

        60

  • #
    joseph

    Another very interesting virus article. This one by William Engdahl.

    https://journal-neo.org/2020/03/10/lock-step-this-is-no-futuristic-scenario/

    30

    • #
      PeterS

      Panic is in the air and shelves on some items have been empty for a long time now. If the panic gets worse steps need to be put in place to implement a rationing system and stop excessive hoarding. Some would say that would make matters worse. Well it won’t matter because once more and more shelves become empty things will get pretty nasty. Such wild behaviour needs to be curtailed.

      60

      • #
        Dennis

        Therefore Military supporting State Police.

        21

        • #
          yarpos

          The military have a role but its not doing Police work.

          40

        • #
          PeterS

          It might get to that but first let’s see how the states deal with the panic hoarding that’s now escalating out of control now that ACT and Victoria at least have declared a state of emergency.

          10

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      “Then the scenario gets very interesting: “During the pandemic, national leaders around the world flexed their authority and imposed airtight rules and restrictions, from the mandatory wearing of face masks to body-temperature checks at the entries to communal spaces like train stations and supermarkets.

      “Even after the pandemic faded, this more authoritarian control and oversight of citizens and their activities stuck and even intensified. In order to protect themselves from the spread of increasingly global problems — from pandemics and transnational terrorism to environmental crises and rising poverty — leaders around the world took a firmer grip on power.””

      In other words – the N W O mob may use this crisis to create a permanent police state.
      N W O motto – “From chaos, order”

      Good thing Darwin is trialling Chinese-style total panopticon surveillance of its city….

      With the rise of AI and the push of everyones data to the cloud, could they use this as the excuse to create a digital lockdown as well?

      Possibly.

      Once freedoms are lost, its rare they are regained.

      51

      • #
        Dennis

        Your alternative is what?

        41

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Well certainly not chinese style lock downs…..

          Do you really honestly want martial law?

          Or put another way, mismanagement of this, whether deliberate (or hopefully oherwise), has guaranteed draconian measures.

          We could see bans on people movement between cities or states.

          Question is, qui bono?

          93

        • #
          el gordo

          We should all just keep our shirts on, its a universal pandemic and in time they will discover a vaccination. In the meantime, watching sport without crowds maybe a problem.

          52

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Actually, things might get weird.

            Lets assume CoV19 runs its course across the globe.

            There is new sabre rattling from China, accusing the US of basically giving china Cov19 is not something I think they would do lightly. Yes they play a pretty sophisticated propaganda game, however this might not be that.

            The official is a senior official from the Chinese equivalent of the US State Dept.

            If China has it clear in its head that it certainly didn’t create or distribute the CoV19 amongst its own population, then….

            If Hong Kong now CoV 19 is deemed to be the work of an external power, then wow….

            https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-14/us-summons-chinese-envoy-over-beijing-coronavirus-comments/12056396

            “Tensions escalated after Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian took to Twitter on Thursday.

            “”When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!” Zhao tweeted in English.

            “The episode is the latest in an increasing war of words between Washington and Beijing, whose already strained ties over issues including trade, intellectual property rights and press freedom have further been tested by the virus outbreak.

            “The coronavirus, which emerged in China in December, has spread around the world, pummelling financial markets, halting industry, bringing some flights to a standstill, closing schools and forcing the postponement of sports events and concerts.

            “Mr Zhao’s comments came days after Robert O’Brien, the US national security adviser, said China had reacted slowly to the coronavirus, probably costing the world two months when it could have been preparing.

            https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/us-army-might-have-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan-says-china-government-spokesperson-1655014-2020-03-13

            10

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              On occasion, perhaps ‘not knowing’ is ok?, there is a lot of new news :)

              00

            • #
              robert rosicka

              Steve I think you’ve drunk the wuhan coolaide , this is exactly 100% propaganda from China and the links all but confirm it .
              I’m amazed the ABC actually gave this any space at all but then again they hate Trump and America by the looks of this garbage cleverly disguised as news .
              The virus started in China , China covered it up for weeks then played it down and now one mouthpiece who is not in a real senior role claims it’s the USA wot dunnit .
              I’m amazed you missed the story of the alien and UN plot to infect the world with the virus .

              30

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                Yeah yeah….right….

                *sigh*

                Many news agencies carried the story, not that that makes it more or less believable.

                I’m no fan of the chinese, nothing new there, however sometimes the world is a weird place.

                Thinking about how hard the chinese had to scramble to keep a lid on things makes me wonder in hindsight whether they were playing rapid catch up, having been caught completely off guard not actually knowing what they were dealing with, which could fit with having something dumped on them.

                If so, retribution will be a terrible thing….I guess we will know, if the USA gets nailed with a second virus way more terrible than Cov19. In fact I suspect if it does happen, it could make cov19 look like its pink and fluffy and cuddly….and then we may have the beginnings of WW3 on our hands.

                What if the WW3 opening salvo is biological? A scary thought.

                00

              • #
                robert rosicka

                Steve I have no doubt that both countries still dabble in germ warfare but a virus that only removes the old and sick is hardly a brilliant military strategy.

                10

      • #

        Digital tracking is made more likely in order to stop future pandemics because we didn’t do basic old fashioned quarantine faster.

        So yes, we run that risk now, but if a train is coming do you give up your freedom to stand on the track and worry that you won’t be allowed back there or jump…

        81

        • #
          skeptikal

          “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.” ~ Benjamin Franklin

          61

          • #
            Roger Knights

            “to purchase a little temporary Safety”

            But social distancing purchases more then a little safety, and more than temporarily. By smoothing the curve it GREATLY reduces the mortality rate.

            30

            • #
              Richardw

              Social distancing doesn’t give up liberty.

              11

              • #

                Staying home. Being self reliant. There is freedom in that.

                I want us to get on top of this fast so we don’t have to do “the tracking thing”.

                Not much freedom in fluid filled lungs that need 24 hour ventilation while paralyzed in ICU.

                40

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Franklin know all about the plague !
            He did whatever he could to stop it killing him & his family
            Pity was he did not know how to do it effectively
            And in the 18th century n body else did either.

            20

        • #
          ghl

          Jo
          Knock Knock
          “Your phone’s GPS says you spent 5min less than 3m from a carrier last night. Please accept these shiny new door locks from your caring government. Keys to be delivered seperately.”

          31

      • #
        PeterS

        Government rarely miss an opportunity to gain some extra power over the people. EU is already contemplating nationalising banks and the like to avoid them collapsing due to the virus disrupting their economies. It might come to that even here if things go really bad but it’s far too early to tell. The key here is of course the property values are so high If they crash then our banks will be in big trouble. I can imagine our government and the central bank will do everything they can to avoid such a scenario. Negative interest rates will be one thing they can do but it might not be enough. In the end it will crash and burn but I’m not expecting it to happen in this cycle. Once the dust settles I’m expecting another big stock market bull run, or two.

        41

        • #
          WXcycles

          EU is already contemplating nationalising banks and the like to avoid them collapsing due to the virus disrupting their economies.

          They effectively already are (except for the profits of course) as the taxpayer for some incongruous reason is always on the hook for banker crimes and loses. Only taxpayers are allowed to go “bank”-rupt.

          It’s a little club, taxpayers aren’t in it.

          81

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Once the dust settles I’m expecting another big stock market bull run, or two.

          Me too.

          Would you be so kind as to ring the bell when it’s bottomed?

          30

          • #
            PeterS

            LOL. I get that sort of request a few times. I wish I could pick the low. If I knew when the bottom is in I would be a billionaire many times over. All I can say is time will tell and I will get on board on the next major up trend part way up from the turning point. Catching it even half way up is better than missing it.

            20

    • #

      Ah, yes. The irrepressibly smug Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group and co-author of that famous 2004 Pentagon report on climate…
      https://cliscep.com/2019/01/18/climate-catastrophe-due-next-year/

      These types are now our bedfellows? Because a stopped clock is right twice a day and Il Duce made the trains run on time?

      Well, okay. And I won’t let all this chatter about global economic collapse distract me from the big story.

      Ah-choo! Please, someone take away these germy freedoms. Cough! And take my cash notes, they could have passed through an Asian wet market for all I know…

      113

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    “Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy says school closures and stockpiling a fortnight’s food are ‘premature’ at the moment.”

    If you watch the movie “Contagion” from 2011, the approach they took was to wait until the very last second until it appears to be self evident & its all too late, then tell the public the truth.

    Epic Fail.

    90

    • #
      PeterS

      It’s clear the authorities are slowly reacting and can’t keep up with the dynamics of what could be a major panic developing over the coming days or weeks. I suspect they will do whatever is necessary if things do go pear shaped, including marital law. Let’s hope it doesn’t get that far but given the behaviour of some people hoarding large amounts of you know what I think another horse has already bolted.

      60

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I had a necessary conversation with my siblings about the process should our elderly mother who lives 4 hours away, gets sick and the fallback options etc.

        Its been instructive as well.

        70

        • #
          Greg in NZ

          O S, thankfully both my parents “transitioned” to “the cloud” long ago, yet both my siblings live in Aus (Sydney & Perth) plus three of my nieces too: I’m glad I left in 1986.

          As for your earlier comment (#8.2), re ‘From chaos, order’, I see this Panic Virus hysteria in the same light… Problem, Reaction, Solution. And lest we remember, today is 15/3 – Beware the Ides of March.

          One year ago to the day, the powers that be pulled a swifty on Christchurch and New Zealand and the world: don’t believe everything you see/hear/read. Good luck fellas!

          101

          • #

            And I see where the headscarf model who grieved so convincingly over pre-piled silicon has taken the kind of firm stand we all expect from a modern world leader: lots of order from lots of chaos. (You just provide the order, Jacinda, and the cathedral-burners will make sure of the chaos.)

            Good luck to all Kiwis who can see through this Queen of Cynics. I’ll take SloMo or a poke in the eye over Headscarf Model.

            181

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Its nice to see someone else thinking outside the media generated box we are supposed to stay in….freedom of thought is critical when actual freedoms are actually at stake. I see much opportunity for Statist abuse of the citizenry and we must be brave enough for our grandchildrens sake to call it out as needed.

            By the way, sorry to hear about your folks passing.

            I have a good friend who lives near Palmerston.

            Go the kiwis!

            72

            • #
              Greg in NZ

              Is that Palmerston North (North Island) or Palmerston (South Island)? Too many towns in NZ/Aotearoa were named after imperial, Commonwealth characters: Wellington, Ranfurly, Auckland, Palmerston… it’s a WRAP!

              Talking of, my guests today were the cast & crew of the satirical musical, Book of Mormon. They found out (whilst at the last vineyard of the day) their show has been CANCELLED because of the Panic Virus crowd factor.

              I, too, found out my winter employment (working on the TV version of ‘Hairy-Footed Midgets and a Wizard on a Roadtrip’ has been postponed until further notice. C’est la vie – this too shall pass.

              20

  • #
    TedM

    “Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy says school closures and stockpiling a fortnight’s food are ‘premature’ at the moment.” Maybe he is right, after all it’s lot more fun watching people panic buying, and wrestling in the supermarket isles when you surprise them with a last minute declaration of a lock down.
    It could be an entertaining crowd gatherer. As long as you keep the crowds to less than 500 it’s all OK.

    80

  • #
    TedM

    “Australians should have been stocking up a little each week for the last four weeks. Easy.” Exactly what I have been doing, and I was recommending that my friends do. Probably for a week or two longer than four.

    70

    • #
      PeterS

      Me too but what happens if it all snowballs into a full panic rush to the shops and the shelves are emptied? It can happen very quickly. Governments need to be on the ball on this possible eventuality. Perhaps they are.

      60

    • #
      yarpos

      It seems that stockpiling is more about fear of what the govt may do than fear about the virus.

      70

      • #
        PeterS

        Well given the number of deaths is still well below previous pandemics we have a long way to go if it continues so one can only imagine how far the fear will grow. We might have to resort to some rationing system. Someone in the petrol industry commented on 2GB that there is a looming petrol shortage due to a supply issue from overseas. As many of us have been warning for a long time our lack of fuel security is something this nation will regret one day, if not soon then at some stage in the foreseeable future. Both political parties are a disgrace on that topic alone.

        30

        • #
          el gordo

          This is not a war, so we shouldn’t expect any disruption to oil or food.

          10

          • #
            PeterS

            Actually is is a war of sorts where supply lines are being interrupted. We import a lot of food and other items from China. China is already exporting far less than normally do due to their lock down. We need to find alternative sources of supply for a lot of items. Better government support for local produces and industries would be a good start. Are you listening PM Morrison?

            50

            • #
              el gordo

              Its a Clayton’s War.

              We have an abundance of food and rationing won’t be required. Noticed that the supermarkets are giving aged pensioners and those with disabilities easy access so that they don’t get trampled in the panic buying.

              21

              • #
                PeterS

                The problem is more and more people are panic buying depleting the shelves leaving many people desperately looking elsewhere and not finding them in most cases. It’s a real panic and something needs to be done about it. WOW has done a little for the elderly but far from enough. Governments need to step in if things don’t improve soon.

                30

              • #
                PeterS

                In other words we might have a good supply of the essentials but for whatever reason the shelves are empty virtually all the time and people are starting to panic more and more. Either the suppliers need to pull all stops out to deliver as much as possible to the supermarkets or whoever is hoarding behind the scenes (government or distribution centres) must let it out for public consumption. I have enough for several weeks but many are running out right now.

                30

        • #
          Analitik

          I’d be surprised by a shortage of petrol/diesel as there are tankers parked off the coasts of China and Singapore waiting for a market to deliver to. And then there is the Saudi and Russian price/volume war for crude (which is probably a joint operation to bankrupt the US shale operations now that cheap debt is no longer available).

          40

          • #
            el gordo

            ‘ … a joint operation to bankrupt the US shale operations …’

            Its feasible, history will tell.

            10

  • #
    Dennis

    Council Of Australian Governments Meeting 13 March 2020

    Protecting Australians from the impact of coronavirus
    Australia is experiencing the impacts of coronavirus, but we are one of the best-prepared countries in the world, thanks to the early actions of all levels of government. Since January 2020, Australian governments have been working together to develop, implement and coordinate strategies to slow the spread of the virus, including through strengthening our world leading health system and implementing border measures. Today, leaders committed to leveraging their combined resources to slow the spread of the virus and ensure Australia stays ahead of the curve in minimising the impact of coronavirus on the Australian community and economy.

    With the wellbeing and safety of Australians being their highest priority, leaders will continue to manage the risk of the virus based on the best and latest evidence and medical advice. The new National Partnership Agreement on COVID-19 Response, signed by all leaders today, is a 50-50 shared funding deal between the Commonwealth and the states and territories that will ensure the capacity of our health system to effectively assess, diagnose and treat people with coronavirus in a way that minimises the spread of the virus in the community and protects our most vulnerable. As part of the deal, the Commonwealth will deliver an immediate $100 million advance payment, on a population basis, to the states and territories to prepare the health system.

    Coronavirus has been declared a global pandemic and Australia is well prepared, including across non-health sectors. On 25 February 2020, at the request of the Chief Medical Officer, the Australian Government activated the Emergency Response Plan for Communicable Disease Incidents of National Significance: National Arrangements (National CD Plan). The National CD Plan, developed and endorsed by all jurisdictions in 2018, outlines how non-health sectors (such as police, childcare, schools, transport and essential utilities) will support the health sector response. Today, leaders welcomed the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee’s (AHPPC’s) development of a risk‑based decision-making tool for mass gatherings. They agreed to work in a co-ordinated way and have regard to the advice of the AHPPC, should the need arise to adjust services in response to coronavirus. All decisions will be proportionate to the risk.

    COAG agreed to commission real-time, transparent protocols, underpinned by advice from the AHPPC and working through the National Coordination Mechanism, to support a consistent approach to containment and preparedness for coronavirus. These protocols will include management of mass gatherings, school closures, health management in remote communities and public transport, with decisions on applying the protocols resting with states and territories. COAG further agreed that the AHPPC advice will have the status of COAG advice, and to implement and follow the advice, as necessary.

    While coronavirus is first and foremost a health crisis, it is having significant economic impacts. Australia’s strong economy means we are well-positioned to respond to the economic impacts of the virus. Our economy has demonstrated its resilience during past shocks and we are in our 29th consecutive year of economic growth. All Australian governments will play their part in delivering complementary, targeted and proportionate responses to the economic impacts of coronavirus. Leaders noted presentations from the Governor of the Reserve Bank and the Secretary of the Australian Treasury, and accepted advice that current fiscal settings in jurisdictions should be adjusted to mitigate the economic impact on Australians and best position the nation for recovery.

    20

    • #
      Dennis

      I can’t access the article behind a paywall at The Australia but the headline refers to tents being erected on hospital grounds.

      Must be ADF field hospital tents.

      The governments State and Federal are in a very difficult position right now, they want to avoid panic in the community, to avoid adding to the hoarding mentality prevailing etc.

      20

    • #
      Peter C

      Thanks Dennis,

      I listened to the first minute of the PM’s speech, until I heard this:

      , but we are one of the best-prepared countries in the world, thanks to the early actions of all levels of government.

      Then I switched off.

      What actions specifically?

      70

  • #
    Zigmaster

    I think that whilst the exponential growth in cases makes it look pretty scary the steepness of the curve in part reflects the greater number of people being tested , so the steep curve in part represents that a lot more cases are known about even though they may have existed beforehand. The problem in assessing the data in particular the death rate is that so many affected people have minimal systems and don’t get tested and also that the symptoms are so similar to flu. In the recent commentaries from Trumps team indicated that for every 100 people tested only 4 return as positive. This indicates that there is a very high number of people with flu and respiratory issues that don’t have Coronavirus. Even after this is hopefully under control we may never know what the real infection rate and death rate is.

    30

    • #

      In Australia they still wont test you at all if you haven’t travelled.

      Now we get to find out exactly how much community spread there is.

      150

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Now we get to find out exactly how much community spread there is.

        I read this as:

        How do we get to find out exactly how much community spread there is?

        And the answer is?

        20

  • #
    Lank

    I’m currently in Bangkok and booked to return to Sydney in a couple of days. I’m good with self isolating but will need to get from the airport to my home. Clearly, I will need to use public transport after I arrive at Sydney airport. More concerning however, is that I will be returning to a home without fresh food and not stocked with supplies to last more than 3-4 days let alone 14 days. Friends say shops will likely be closed or lacking stocks and I am reluctant to beg their help in leaving some of their scarce supplies outside my door. In any event, most of them are in self quarantine too.

    Readers may be interested that CORONAVIRUS measures in downtown Bangkok are taken very seriously. It is easy to avoid crowds here because there are few. Markets, restaurants and shops are almost empty. Hand sanitiser is available at entry to all shops and hotels and escalators at shopping centres are being cleaned with alcohol based cleaners continuously. At the hotel I’m at, hand sanitisor is placed at each lift and lounge door and each lift consol is cleaned hourly. In breakfast/dining areas every visitor is required to hand sanitise before entry. In public places about 80% wear masks. I have my own but most foreigners are unable to buy them as they are in short supply and sold out of pharmacies. There is ample food, toilet paper, soap/detergents on store shelves and clearly not panicked buying….. Compare with Australia?

    90

    • #
      Lank

      Just to be clear re the escalator cleaning. I noticed that very few people touch the handrails on escalators at shopping centres in Bangkok that I visited but, in any event, a person stands at the bottom of most escalators with a cloth soaked with alcohol cleaner to clean the moving hand rails as people use them.

      50

      • #
        RickWill

        My wife has not touched handrails on escalators for decades. Of course that increases the risk of falling.

        40

  • #
    AbysmalSpectator

    I was appalled by the press conference. In effect, it was the equivalent of no action given the current state of the virus in Australia. NZ appears, ceteris paribus, to be in a different place and their policy could be effective, but we already have a fire growing exponentially so stopping the spot fires isn’t going to change the course of things here. If Scomo had done this a month ago (two months ago?!) then we would be in a better place. Murphy’s attitude is, in my opinion, grossly negligent. Yes each hand shake is low risk at present simply because of the likely numbers of people currently infected, but not changing behaviour means that the case doubling time will remain the same. It’s moronic. In any case, does anyone really believe that you have to speak to someone for 15 minutes or sit in an enclosed space for 2 hours to catch this virus? (Diamond Princess cough cough.) If so, why all the hand washing? None of the “logic” used to justify these policies holds together at all. To slow the spread of the virus there has to be a significant change in social behaviour for an extended period of time. Shutting down a few major gatherings whilst still sending all the kids to school and daycare will do diddly squat.

    131

  • #
    David Harvey

    Australia has had quite a different trajectory to Italy. 2 deaths 2 weeks ago, another last week, now no deaths for over a week. Only 1 person in a serious condition out of more than 250 cases. Italy’s rate of serious cases is more than 10 time’s this and has been since the start.
    In Italy 12 people died within a week of the first case. Italy’s situation was already 50 times worse than ours in terms of cases and deaths when significant action was taken.
    Has any country taken the steps Australia has taken when they had only 3 deaths and 1 serous case? I think the action taken and the timing is appropriate…. but obviously there’s a chance I’ll be proven wrong.

    71

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Yes there is ! Poland, Slovakia, Czechia, Taiwan, Vietnam etc

      Go actually look here :
      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

      00

    • #

      David, I fear there may be two different strains at work, and if that is the case then the Italian-Iranian strain is competing with the SE-Asian strain here, but it looks like the Italian strain is dreadful, so past trendlines may change as the nastier bug starts to spread. I hope I’m wrong.

      Italy had only 3 cases for weeks, then things suddenly got very ugly.

      112

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Jo I was watching the ABC News just now
        There was a human interest story from the ABC in Italy
        About a team of all children of ‘undocumented migrants’ competing in a basketball series.
        And then she mentioned that there are 800,000 ‘undocumented migrants’ in Italy.
        In other words ‘illegal migrants’ from wherever in the world.
        With an illegal migrant population that big
        What hope doe Italy have of knowing how this strain of the virus got to Italy ?
        Or of preventing it entering the country ?

        I notice also that in the past week Spain has a huge expanding COVID 19 disease issue.
        And again large numbers of illegal migrants from all over.

        Maybe we in Australia will not develop a huge COVID 19 problem..
        Because we have prevented such undocumented illegal migration flows here.

        100

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Italy also appears to have a TB problem – is it contributing to this issue?

          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3121636/

          “5377 TB cases were reported. The proportion of immigrants with TB, over the total number of TB cases had progressively increased over the years, from 19.1% to 53.3%. In the not Italy-born population, TB incidence was higher than in Italians (in 2006: 100.7 cases per 100 000 registered not Italy-born subjects and 83.9/100 000 adding 20% of estimated irregular presences to the denominators. TB incidence among Italians was 6.5/100 000 Italians).

          “A progressive rise in the not Italy-born incident cases was observed but associated with a decline in TB incidence. Not Italy-born cases were younger compared to the Italy-born cases, and more frequently classified as “new cases” (OR 2.0 95 % CI 1.61-2.49 for age group 20-39); 60.7% had pulmonary TB, 31.6% extra pulmonary and 7.6% disseminated TB. Risk factors for TB in this population group were connected to lower income status (homeless: OR 149.9 95%CI 20.7-1083.3 for age group 40-59).

          https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/49/2/1602242

          https://www.statista.com/statistics/814016/number-of-cases-of-tuberculosis-in-italy/

          30

      • #
        John McClure

        Jo,
        With respect, you are now jumping the shark!

        Settle down, you don’t have access to the clinical studies which are currently occupying!

        Please set fears aside and ride Science as you have done.

        24

        • #

          John, No shark jumping here. All ssRNA viruses are known to mutate very fast. They have no back up strand, no repair. There is a “cloud” out there right now.With respect: This is what the mutation tree looks like https://nextstrain.org/ncov.

          you must have missed the post where I referenced the Italian sources:
          Check out the graph. Something is going on differently in Italy. The mortality rate v testing rate puts if far off the curve that the rest of those nations are on.

          Death rates in Italy appear to be worse than wuhan. (5.8%)

          People like Dr John Campbell have medical contacts in Iran who have been telling him for weeks that the death rate is unusually high. Italy got their outbreak from Iran.

          Perhaps there is some other reason. Or perhaps it is two different strains.

          100

          • #
            John McClure

            With respect, I’ll run the traps yet suspect you’re jumping the shark “mutations “

            11

            • #
              John McClure

              Jo,
              Although the genetic relationships among sampled viruses are quite clear, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding estimates of transmission dates and in reconstruction of geographic spread. Please be aware that inferred transmission patterns are only a hypothesis.

              Don’t get your shots in a knot!

              21

              • #
                John McClure

                Sorry shots s/b shorts

                I completely agree, everyone should avoid getting the bug.

                Yet, let’s not jump the shark!

                31

        • #
          Doc

          I can’t recall the context, but I read something suggesting the virus may have
          mutated a couple of weeks ago. Haven’t read any follow up. A more deadly but
          Equally contagious virus would be the last thing we need to get into the public
          domain at this stage until it is verified. Pray that the UQ people working on old
          antimalarials as discussed on Paul Murray’s show on Sky can come up with
          a drug system that can ameliorate the disease if given in the early stages after
          Infection. They are looking at a couple of months time frame if it works. Being
          already proven as safe in humans there would be no year long animal trials before
          release, though cranking up manufacture could take a while.

          00

          • #

            There was a Chinese paper about L and S strains. But didn’t quite gel for me. I decided to wait to hear more. Other researchers were not impressed.

            I’m not suggesting I know any functional genetic change, only that the virus is behaving differently — but that could be due to the populations involved.

            10

      • #

        Jo. Regarding strains, have a look at this site

        https://nextstrain.org/ncov

        it is pure phylogenetics and lacks a number of data features I’d like to see but it does give an insight into the mutagenicity and regional linkages.

        For those clicking the link, viruses with differences in DNA are not necessarily different strains with different characteristics. A great many mutations are unlikely to produce any affect and a great many will render the virus unable to transmit (ie it is effectively dead) and will not be detected by sampling from a symptomatic individual.

        The added features would by some more genetic/popgen summary statistics (that’s for me at least), but more applicable to everyone is linking the symptoms and medical outcomes of each individual that the DNA came from.

        20

  • #
    David Harvey

    Australia has had quite a different trajectory to Italy. 2 deaths 2 weeks ago, another last week, now no deaths for over a week. Only 1 person in a serious condition out of more than 250 cases. Italy’s rate of serious cases is more than 10 time’s this and has been since the start.
    In Italy 12 people died within a week of the first case. Italy’s situation was already 50 times worse than ours in terms of cases and deaths when significant action was taken.
    Has any country taken the steps Australia has taken when they had only 3 deaths and 1 serous case? I think the action taken and the timing is appropriate…. but obviously there’s a chance I’ll be proven wrong.

    21

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Give it time, David.

      Give it time.

      10

      • #
        el gordo

        We were quicker off the mark and the four Australians who have died were 77, 95, 82 and 78, so I’m fairly optimistic that there won’t be a sharp spike this winter.

        50

      • #
        Streetcred

        Italy’s situation is substantially different to us:
        (1) A different strain of the virus reported;
        (2) A substantially older population;
        (3) Socialised medicine;
        (4) Rampant illegal entry and illegal residents;
        (5) ‘Manyana’ bureaucracy.

        30

  • #
    Considerate Thinker

    In regard to hoarding and panic buying, it is time for a declaration of certain classes of goods that can only be sold at fixed prices if offered for sale to the general public. Exemptions can apply for registered businesses i.e. Supermarkets and the public encouraged to report instances of those goods offered at rip off profiteering pricing. Most Supermarket chains are refusing returns of product as a result of over buying. Government need to step in to restore confidence in the supply chain.

    It is inevitable that customers who might have to self isolate or are vulnerable should be able to secure at least two weeks of supplies to stockpile as a contingency and a contact for replenishment supply for perishable goods arranged if necessary.

    Easy to add items to the declaration and fixed price list.

    51

  • #
    Another Ian

    A suggestion for one of the next moves:_

    Unban single use plastic bags!

    “Greening Our Way to Infection

    The ban on single-use plastic grocery bags is unsanitary—and it comes at the worst imaginable time.”

    https://www.city-journal.org/banning-single-use-plastic-bags-covid-19

    Via SDA

    150

    • #
      Another Ian

      The law of unintended consequences strikes again!

      80

      • #
        WXcycles

        I was considering this topic from another angle this week as I don’t use those fabric bags at all, I use the 15 cent plastic bags and fold them up then reuse them 3 to 4 times before I toss them. It occurred to me that I may have to stop that and to use new plastic bags every time.

        30

  • #
    DonS

    Hi Jo

    It’s easy to talk about taking a month off all sorts of activities but for people living on the financial edge a month without income will be a disaster. The landlord will want the rent next week, the banks the mortgage payment, the credit card bill will need to be payed, the power bill will have to be payed etc. etc. No work, no income, what do you do?

    How is it that our bloated, multi-trillion dollar financial services sector has not been pressured to come to the party. Perhaps suspend debt repayments for a few months? Give people some assurance that by staying home they are not going to have the debt collector banging on the door or repo agents dragging away the family car. I’m pretty sure they will still be going about their business unhindered.

    I’m all for free enterprise and making a buck but if this is the national emergency we are being bashed over the head with then all parts of the nation must do their bit. If you expect jo public to cop draconian measures and curtailment of some freedoms without civil unrest then they must see, in real terms, that they are not the only ones making a sacrifice for the national good.

    90

    • #
      TdeF

      Easy to say, but those payments to ‘financial institutions’ ultimately go to others who may have mortgages to pay as well or investors for whom it is their source of income. Stop anything and the system can collapse where no one pays and no one gets paid. What is needed is to keep the system going. A repayment holiday for those who cannot pay makes sense, but not for everyone or no one get anything. That will be a find balancing act.

      Fundamentally everything is worthless or at least things are only worth what someone else is prepared to pay. Say they drag the new family car away. If this happens prolifically that makes the car worthless to the finance company as no one can afford to buy it because there would be too many on the market. Better to negotiate a deal and keep everything in place.

      I think finance companies will think through the consequences of their actions, accumulate the debt and keep the system ticking over, waiting for a return of normalcy.

      A general collapse of the financial system would see everyone broke and no food. Then you would have panic like we have never seen, as cities cannot feed themselves. And distribution breaks down. Toilet paper is only the start.

      90

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Ah, yes.

        This will be the real test of the woke corporates’ “Corporate social responsibility”.

        Look out below.

        Hypocrites falling.

        Shall I name the names as they splat on the pavement?

        40

    • #
      Doc

      The USA CONGRESS I believe has a bill before it now, related to this matter. Senator Cotton was
      on Fox tonight saying he and other Members were concerned about exactly this matter and were
      seeking to get it changed so the cash payouts would go out quickly to small businesses and
      people who are in the very predicament you mention here. Morrison also is seeking the government
      funding to be similarly quickly distributed and to get the government departments and tax
      department off people’s backs until the virus is out of the way. Then, of course, is the dreaded
      Australian bureaucracy betwixt and between which has a bigger turning circle than the Titanic in
      a gale………

      00

  • #
    David Wood

    Has anyone heard of the Gompertz curve of epidemiology, thanks to WWUT I just did. Basically this says that in the
    early stages of an epidemic the growth is exponential, but it soon rolls over to an S-shape and an asymptotic maximum.
    The deaths out of China and the confirmed cases from Sth. Korea follow this type of curve very Well.
    Time, as always, will tell whether the rest of the world follows a similar pattern.

    60

    • #

      Unless I hear you wrongly it sounds like someone who knows nothing about epidemiology. It’s utterly irrelevant when 100% of the population have no immunity. Sure China and Korea leveled it off, but only mass tracking, action, following phones, sending teams of trackers, shutting down 80% of Chinese economy or whole sections of Korea.

      The idea that those diseases petered out in those nations “naturally” is an act of denial or delusion.

      Without quarantine, this will extremely “soon” peak and roll over. It will be fast like a high speed trainwreck. We are weeks away from that peak, but we won’t let it happen because it would be a disaster. It’s a different form of the epidemiology curves I’ve posted from the start 7 weeks ago. This R0 (rate of infection) is around 2.5 — so the peak will be higher and faster that the fastest curve here.

      EG.

      But uncontrolled we are looking at a 4% death rate because hospitals are overwhelmed.

      So yes, “let it rip” and up to 80% of the population will get it in the next 6 months (I showed that Singapore with 5 million people would be completely overrun in less than 6 months. )

      We can make the Gompertz curve resolve fast in a good way. Copy South Korea, Taiwan, hong Kong. Take massive action.

      Deaths in each country around the world will depend on THE Day their governments starts mass quarantine. Each day late = thousands more dead.

      90

      • #
        Ross

        The piece referred to by David was written by Willis Eschenbach. I think it is worth reading.

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/13/the-math-of-epidemics/

        30

      • #
        John McClure

        Jo,
        Your coverage for weeks have been insightful.

        Catch some zzzzs.

        ❤️

        30

      • #
        Peter

        Korea has indeed taken some big measure:
        - no mass gatherings
        - social distancing
        - work at home or adjust working hours (to avoid the rush hours);
        - wearing masks (mainly to prevent my virus/germs bacteria from reaching others rather than preventing getting infected myself)
        - close musea, palaces, and cancel all big events
        - hand sanitizers at the entrance of almost very building
        - big campaigns to show the proper way of sneezing/coughing (in your elbow or in a paper tissue instead of in your hand)
        - big campaigns to stress the importance of washing your hands often
        - extend winter vacation for schools (summer vacation will be shorter)

        It has also done a lot of preventive testing and preventive self-quarantine. Last week, they found one case in a call center in high rise building in Seoul. The authorities immediately had all people tested on the floor where the infected person worked. It also tested all family members of all those people. All people of the other floors had to go home (and stay there) and wait for their turn to get tested. This way, they caught about 90 people with the virus. All in all with all this preventive testing, the Koreans have tested 270,000 people in the last four weeks.

        For each infected person, they also tried to figure out how this person got infected and where the person has been. They tried to traced back with whom the infected person had been in contact. These people could possibly infected as well. Whereabouts of infected people of previous days are made visible online. Details even includes if the person was wearing a mask or not.

        IMHO there is a cultural aspect that has made the growth of the virus in Korea smaller than in the USA and many European countries. Many people in Western countries use some sort of physical contact when greeting a friend, colleague or family member: hugs, kisses, hand shakes or a combination of these. Koreans have far less physical contact. When greeting, a polite bow and saying “hi” is often enough.

        It all seemed to have a good effect. About four weeks ago, the big out break started in a city in the South of the country. For about two weeks now, the number of daily new cases has been slowly going down. I hope this downward trend will continue.

        40

      • #
        Streetcred

        https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-the-difference-between-a-1-and-0-1-fatality-rate-is-huge/

        Another commentator that has a deficiency in maths … wrong base line selected ! The comments are enlightening.

        10

      • #
        DOC

        Jo. Your precis is exquisite and no doubt accurate.
        It’s the work and understanding that should be freely available to the official epidemiologist. It’s their bread and butter.

        The problem: With our non science and maths educated population, it would scare the pants off them. The panic we already see
        would multiply a thousand times. It is information ALL our governments and health departments should freely have in their hands,
        yet experience makes it appear they don’t! OR, if they do they are more scared witless of the effects of what they must
        do to society to safeguard it than they are of the consequences of doing a slow political progression to that point with those
        consequences.

        This scares the pants off ME.

        The fact is, the politicians need to be brave, do their jobs, do what has to be done and release the statistical information behind
        the moves as they go. I’m not sure that the public could control their fear if all the information behind what is happening is
        released on a statistical basis. That gets one into an argument before a problem occurs and the public tend to see headlines and not
        what happens if we do as needs be done; the media thrives on the worst predictions officially given.

        Until a viable vaccine is available, all we have is prevention that is a thousand years old. There is truth in saying the public need
        a better organised, objective plan than is being offered, but the truth is, I doubt that officialdom is even certain in its own mind
        of just what that is. In the past we have always had a drug or a vaccine that rapidly fixed our problem. Statistics without end point
        being subject to alteration by action, is like betting on a one way race to extinction. We need a plan that can be set out to people
        that the next step is such and such to stop spread, with a reason and anticipated effect, saying that if necessary the following step
        would be imposed rapidly, would be more extreme if people didn’t fall into line with the former step. If you want calm, you have to
        earn it. If armageddon is unavoidable then that’s when governments have to go for broke.

        The current position is like having a patient with severe hypertension, treating without information on the beneficial effects of taking
        tablets and not telling the consequences of not accepting the treatment and refusing to take his drugs. I admit fear is part of ensuring
        treatment is taken.

        20

    • #
      Analitik

      The article by Willis Eschenbach fails to mention the drastic measures taken by the Chinese and South Korean governments to flatten the curve through enforced quarantine. His simplistic interpretation implies the curve flattening is just the disease running its natural course and running out of susceptible targets through natural immunity within the communities and his projected death rates are based off this.

      You may as well trust Tedros Ghebreyesus, the WHO Director General.

      60

  • #
    TdeF

    The unspoken question is how this modern world will function without people at work. And it raises the question of how much work many people do.

    Is the closure of the travel industry a disaster or a realignment, with people holidaying at home. 80 years ago, people did not have holidays.

    Will manufacturing stop? Will imports of luxury goods stop? Will cities be functional, especially high rise living which is booming even in Australia. And 40% of Chinese have moved from the country to the city. How functional will it be and who will deliver food?

    Will cities be viable? Or will there be a flight to the country?

    Australia has no wealth as we have no manufacturing (with the exception of toilet paper, the first panic item). And food.

    So will our two biggest exports slow or stop, coal and iron ore? Then how would we pay for imports?

    Will Australians be able to trade with each other for food, accomodation, water, transport?

    It will be a very important time where the explosion of wealth and jet travel since WWII has seen people go to America or Bali for a week, where the idea of a holiday is a trip to Machu Picchu or Cape Town or Cuba. And where children just have to visit Disneyland.

    I was interested in the Australian on Saturday showing all the great holiday destinations in Australia. Why not?

    And what will happen to teaching? How much is child minding and how much is education? And how much social?

    Quite apart from all the possible problems, it will mean a reassessment of the progress of the last 80 years.

    And perhaps the self indulgent and ignorant Greens might consider who will pay for everything if we do not export coal? And whether a whole city can go back to log fires and chimneys.

    Looking back in six months will be very educational. There is just so much we do not know. It might be a very chastening experience as we get a whole new view of the world. And globalization and open borders.

    170

    • #
      TdeF

      To be fair, I think everything will work out and great and valuable lessons learned.

      Isolation will level the infection rate. It will also dramatically reduce the incidence of a lot of other airborne viruses which plague society more and more each year, which is great.

      Assuming older people do not die in great numbers, there will be a slow return to normalcy in months even if people over 70 remain in isolation as much as possible. And international holiday and pleasure travel is on hold, at least for a year.

      A lot of people will miss their overseas holiday this year and will holiday in Australia. Caravan sales will go up. Country towns will see a real tourist boom and spending, not just grey nomads. There will be a reassessment of the value of living in the country, away from the madding crowds.

      There will be a reassessment of the entire education industry, especially overseas students commuting routinely to China and India. Schools will become more internet based and less traditional classroom. It will accelerate the adoption of internet based everything.

      Of course it could be a boon for low contact internet food shopping and deliveries, uber eats. And perhaps the end for huge music festivals. And attendance at the football. It’s really interesting to speculate how this will change Australia, but it is to be hoped that everything improves.

      If a pandemic is symptomatic of the change to a world with 7.1Billion people, jet aircraft and gigantic cities, this might just be a good time to reevaluate how we live.

      We might find a better balance in many ways.

      130

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        TdeF, yes Now that humanity is over 7 billion and mostly lives in densely crowded cities
        We provide a huge new niche for other organisms ( especially micro-organisms ) to predate on us.

        but consider this : Our cities in Australia & the USA & Europe, and even China, are well organised and have the capacity to respond to this threat.

        But what of the huge urban cities like Manila, Jakarta, Saigon, Calcutta, New Dehli, Bombay, Dakha, Karachi, Cairo, Lagos etc… I have a feeling that major chaos will ensue if the virus gets a hold on any of these cities.

        80

        • #
          TdeF

          Yes, I agree. There are cities like Mexico and Shanghai over 30 million people, countries really. Wuhan is the prime example here, 11 million. Isolation seems to be working.

          Africa and South America are at enormous risk but the cities are not so big. Possibly Lagos in Nigeria at 21 million. Also many of the other mega cities you list are equatorial, which is a form of safety from some airborne viruses. Temperate climates have a strong winter flu season for this reason. Ours is coming.

          But as no one matches China for population density with the huge shift since 1998 from the country to vertical city living, 40% of the country. However these new vertical cities are very high tech and well supplied, so different to the old China which has been largely destroyed in Beijing and Shanghai, demolished. A bit remains around the Bund and the old French Quarter, but the rest is brand new. Clean.

          We will have to wait, but I am already surprised that the virus has not taken hold in these mega cities.

          60

          • #
            TdeF

            There is also great disagreement about the lifespan of this virus in heat. One articles said it died at 26C. But another said MERS which is related was able to survive at 37C in the Middle East, carried by camels. Maybe that is evolution? I am hopeful that the end of the flu season in Europe and China will see a dramatic drop in reinfection, giving the world a break.

            50

        • #
          skeptikal

          Bombay???…. Bill, you’re really showing your age. LOL.

          04

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Ohhh Pardon my belief that Bombay is better as a name than Mumbai !
            After all the Brits created Bombay as port & city !

            90

          • #
            TdeF

            Many of these names have trouble sticking, even in India. Chennai for example when everyone knows Madras. A lot of this is politics, political correctness, not history. Like renaming Ayer’s rock to Uluru.

            We are heading into a world of fake history now that Ab*rigines allegedly had towns and harvests and storage and kept farm animals. It’s not as if all of Australian ab*rigines knew about Ayer’s rock or even spoke the same language. The original tribe which called kangaroos kangaroos has never been found, but now it is part of a fake national language. Like so much Maori language, invented from a basic vocabulary of a few hundred words to a new language which describes things which never existed, like metal.

            And everyone in the world knows where Bombay is. And I thought New Delhi was a different city to Delhi, rather than a purpose built British suburb inside Delhi.

            81

            • #
              robert rosicka

              Actually TdeF I think Kangaroo came from when Cook stopped in Cooktown for repairs but it could be urban legend .

              00

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                Kanguru

                Cook’s description of the Endeavour River following his Journal entry for Saturday 4 1770:

                Besides the Animals which I have before mentioned, called by the Natives
                Kangooroo, or Kanguru, here are Wolves,* (* Probably Dingos.) Possums, an
                Animal like a ratt, and snakes, both of the Venemous and other sorts.
                Tame Animals here are none except Dogs, and of these we never saw but
                one, who frequently came about our Tents to pick up bones, etc. The
                Kanguru are in the greatest number, for we seldom went into the Country
                without seeing some. The land Fowls we met here, which far from being
                numerous, were Crows, Kites, Hawkes, Cockadores* (* Cockatoos.) of 2
                Sorts, the one white, and the other brown, very beautiful Loryquets of 2
                or 3 Sorts, Pidgeons, Doves, and a few other sorts of small Birds. The
                Sea or Water fowl are Herns, Whisling Ducks, which perch and, I believe,
                roost on Trees; Curlews, etc., and not many of these neither. Some of our
                Gentlemen who were in the Country heard and saw Wild Geese in the Night.

                https://www.gutenberg.org/files/8106/8106.txt

                50

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                August.

                20

              • #
                TdeF

                My memory of it was the story that every ship had a linguist who recorded as much as possible of the native language for use by subsequent ships. I presumed this was a one on one session with someone in Cook’s party. And the first record was from Botany Bay. They never found that man again, or that tribe. However it is now an English word. I have no idea if it is an ab*riginal word and whether that applies to all dialects?

                00

              • #
                Len

                The Dingo was first given the scientific name Canis Dingo. With the advent of DNA research the Dingo has been reclassified as Lupus Dingo. That is a member of the wolf family. It’s closest relative is the Arabian Wolf.

                10

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Italy for March ( so far )

    https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/covid-19-infografica_ita.pdf

    “CS N ° 21/2020 Coronavirus, lethality so far is 5.8%, higher in men

    “ISS, March 13, 2020

    “The lethality (understood as the number of deaths out of the total sick) of Covid-19 in Italy is currently 5.8%. This was stated by the Report of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità on the characteristics of patients who died positive for COVID-19 in Italy, just published on the Epicentro website.

    “The average age of COVID-19 positive and deceased patients is 80 years, about 15 years higher than the positive and 28.4% of women.

    “Two COVID-19 positive patients died under the age of 40. It is 1 person of 39 years of age, male, with pre-existing psychiatric diseases, diabetes and obesity, who died at home and 1 person of 39 years of age, female, with pre-existing neoplastic diseases deceased in the hospital. Women who died after contracting COVID-19 infection are older than men (median ages: women 84.2 – men 80.3) and lethality increases markedly after the age of 70.

    ““The lethality stratified by age group is not higher than that of other countries – underlines Graziano Onder, director of the Department of cardiovascular, dysmetabolic and aging diseases -. We discount a very high average age and a significant percentage of the population that has multiple diseases, a factor that increases the risk of death. It is no coincidence that the average number of pathologies observed in the deceased is 2.7 “.

    “Some more details on lethality are present in the epidemiological bulletin ( https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorvisory-integrata-COVID-19_12-marzo-2020.pdf ) always published on the epicenter.

    In men, lethality is higher, 7.2%, while in women it is 4.1%.

    The difference in the number of cases reported by gender increases progressively in favor of male subjects up to the age group ≥70-79. In the age group ≥ 90 years the number of female cases exceeds that of male cases probably due to the demographic structure of the population.

    “Also on Epicentro you can consult the infographic on integrated surveillance.

    “Age Cases [n (%)] Deaths
    0-9 0 (0%) 0%
    10-19 0 (0%) 0%
    20-29 0 (0%) 0%
    30-39 2 (0,2%) 0,2%
    40-49 4 (0,4%) 0,2%
    50-59 24 (2,4%) 0,8%
    60-69 77 (7,6%) 2,7%
    70-79 360 (35,4%) 10,8%
    80-89 438 (43,0%) 17,5%
    >90 96 (9,4%) 21,1%

    Unknown 16 (1,6%) 2,8%

    Total 1017 (100%) 6,2%

    50

    • #
      WXcycles

      Good to know Steve, thanks for posting.

      50

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Thanks…I’m trying to get the real data for useful intelligence.

        I notice the UK are suggesting the 70+ aged population may need to be self isolated for 4 months.

        Hmmm…unless they are monitored, a lot of them could die and no one might know…..

        70

        • #
          WXcycles

          Yes, I almost feel ‘safe’ after reading that, as I’m still mid-50s and reasonably fit, if over weight. Must be a real worry right now for people in the older age groups and their families. Hope we can hold it down.

          50

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Jo some news from the Philippines
    “the Philippines has 140 COVID-19 cases, 11 of whom died while five have recovered.”
    https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1242433/mall-chain-temporarily-closes-shops-in-metro-due-to-community-quarantine

    And Thailand has just seen a big increase in cases as well with 32 cases in the last day
    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-thailand-coronavirus-crisis-starting-to-escalate-with-32-new-cases-for-the-last-24-hours-announced-current-official-toll-114,-1-dead
    Meanwhile Indonesia saw an increase of 21 cases..

    I think that this disproved the idea that virus cannot thrive in warm tropical areas…

    PS Vietnam i showing no increase at all..But that may be due to cooked books..

    This is most Unfortunate !..

    30

    • #
      TdeF

      I wonder if that was in the airconditioned ‘mall chain’ shops referenced?

      Tropical places are not as hot as they once were. Airconditioning has changed everything.

      70

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Or the virus surviving on surfaces in air conditioned shops in the malls ?

        I do not know yet TdeF. The cases listed for each country are not specific enough.

        40

        • #
          TdeF

          It is odd that the single reference is to such shops, unexplained.

          I have only been there once, decades ago but from what I have seen in documentaries of the slums and streets of Manila, there is nothing to shut.

          I am suspicious that the modern hi tech environments, air circulation, low temperatures introduced to these very hot environments are an unprecedented haven for viruses in hot countries. Similarly with Egypt which is not a city but a linear village. Cairo is almost accidental, ramshackle. Apart from the odd international hotel, not a modern building to be seen. The only real development is along the Meditteranean coast between Alexandra and El Alamein, a private resort strip for the wealthy and walled with guards.

          So I suspect if the bug is to die from heat, it would be in such cities. It is the heat of these places which allows them to exist and minimizes viral transmission. Bacteria however just love it.

          70

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      More evidence that this plague can transmit in the tropics.
      Malaysia has big jump in cases – 190
      As does Brunei – 38
      Both outbreaks centered around Muslim religious events in late February/Early March
      Mosques are rarely air conditioned in SEA.Usually ambient temperature.
      https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/malaysia-reports-190-new-virus-cases/news-story/1b2a36ac9dfadb614e53a280c2e8bc1f

      20

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Why is comment above in moderation ?

        [ The auto filter is a mystery Bill , there can be a delay in mods checking the moderation bin and my advice is send an email if something goes missing .] AD

        20

        • #
          Roger Knights

          “Why is comment above in moderation ?”

          If it doesn’t appear in 12 hours, repost it, along with a note.

          20

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          You are in isolation.

          30

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            That was supposedly in response to Bill.
            Has the computer temperature been checked lately?

            40

        • #
          Roger Knights

          “Why is comment above in moderation ?”

          Perhaps because it contains “Muslim.”

          [ Roger between me and you there are many reasons for ending up in moderation and we'd prefer that it remains the mystery that it is , the " Guide for commenting " gives a good overview .] AD

          30

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    And a bit of a “what the” moment….

    https://www.kxan.com/news/drinking-bleach-will-not-prevent-coronavirus-poison-control-center-warns/

    “CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (Nexstar Media Wire) – A Virginia poison control center is reminding residents that they should never drink bleach – and that doing so will certainly not prevent coronavirus.

    “The Blue Ridge Poison Center said in a letter obtained by WCAV, “There is a lot of confusing, incomplete, and just plain inaccurate information circulating about how to prevent the COVID-19 virus (“coronavirus”) from spreading. Some advice measures simply won’t help, and some could be downright dangerous. The Blue Ridge Poison Center at UVA Health warns that drinking bleach will not prevent COVID-19 infections and could cause serious injury.”

    “While bleach is an effective tool for disinfecting car handles, desktops and other surfaces, the BRPC warns that the cleaning agent can burn one’s mouth, throat and stomach. It can also cause skin irritations, breathing difficulty and vomiting.

    “When used correctly, however, bleach can play an effective role in killing coronavirus germs outside the body, however.

    “For cleaning surfaces, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests making a diluted bleach solution with five tablespoons of bleach per gallon of water.

    “See more on the CDC website.

    40

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Cases in the USA – deaths

    https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/everything-we-know-about-the-26-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-u-s/

    57 deaths

    “Chart of U.S. coronavirus deaths
    Case State County Age Gender Death Date
    1 California Los Angeles 68 Female March 11
    2 California Placer 70s Male March 4
    3 California Sacramento 90s Female March 10
    4 California Santa Clara 60s Female March 9
    5 California Santa Clara 80s Female March 13
    6 Colorado El Paso 80s Female March 13
    7 Florida Lee 77 Female March 5
    8 Florida Lee 77 Male March 14
    9 Florida Santa Rosa 71 Male March 6
    10 Georgia Cobb 67 Male March 12
    11 Kansas Wyandotte 70s Male March 11
    12 Louisiana Orleans 58 Male March 14
    13 New Jersey Bergen 69 Male March 10
    14 New York Brooklyn 82 Female March 13
    15 New York Rockland 65 Male March 12
    16 South Dakota Pennington 65 Male March 10
    17 Virginia James City 70s Male March 14
    18 Washington Grant 80s Male March 8
    19 Washington King 80s Female Feb. 26
    20 Washington King 50s Male Feb. 26
    21 Washington King 50s Male Feb. 28
    22 Washington King 70s Male Feb. 29
    23 Washington King 70s Male March 1
    24 Washington King 70s Female March 1
    25 Washington King 80s Female March 1
    26 Washington King 70s Female March 2
    27 Washington King 70s Male March 2
    28 Washington King 90s Female March 3
    29 Washington King 90s Female March 3
    30 Washington King 90s Female March 3
    31 Washington King 80s Female March 4
    32 Washington King 80s Female March 4
    33 Washington King 60s Male March 5
    34 Washington King 80s Female March 5
    35 Washington King 90s Male March 5
    36 Washington King 90s Male March 5
    37 Washington King 80s Female March 6
    38 Washington King 70s Female March 6
    39 Washington King 80s Female March 6
    40 Washington King 90s Female March 6
    41 Washington King 90s Female March 6
    42 Washington King 70s Female March 8
    43 Washington King 90s Female March 8
    44 Washington King 80s Female March 8
    45 Washington King 80s Male March 8
    46 Washington King 80s Male March 9
    47 Washington King 70s Male March 9
    48 Washington King 60s Female March 9
    49 Washington King 90s Female March 10
    50 Washington King 80s Male March 11
    51 Washington King 80s Male March 11
    52 Washington King 80s Male March 12
    53 Washington King 70s Female March 12
    54 Washington Snohomish 40s Male March 2
    55 Washington Snohomish 80s Male March 9
    56 Washington Snohomish 80s Female March 10
    57 Washington Snohomish 70s Female March 11

    “Average age of those who died: 78.55 years old
    “Average age of men who died: 73.67 years old
    “Average age of women who died: 82.95 years old

    “To get a rough average estimate, when a range was given for a person, i.e. a person in their 70s, we used 74.5 as that person’s age, i.e. halfway between 70 and 79. The exception was for the man from Placer County, California. We were told he was in his “early 70s” so we assigned an age of 71.5 for him for averaging purposes.

    90

    • #
      TdeF

      Only 1 40s, 3 50s 6 60s. 10 out of 57. The majority 70s, 80s and 90s where a preexisting condition is likely.

      This is so different to the 1918 Spanish flu which selectively attacked young men, notably the soldiers in the trenches.

      King and Snohomish Counties are in Washington State, not Washington DC. King County includes Seattle.

      90

      • #
        John F. Hultquist

        King County is the home of a facility (Life Care Center of Kirkland) with about 150 older residents.
        Most of the Seattle area deaths are from this one place. Most of the USA deaths are from the State of Washington — Puget Sound area.

        70

  • #
  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Interesting take on how to deal with the UK situation – the UK have a bit of backbone, but that doesnt sit well with the WHO…I wonder why?

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-ten-more-die-after-positive-diagnosis-11957525

    “Meanwhile, the UK’s approach to combating COVID-19 has been questioned by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

    “The UK’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said the government was not looking to “suppress” the disease entirely but to help create a “herd immunity in the UK” while protecting the most vulnerable from it.

    “He told Sky News around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have such immunity.

    “But WHO spokesman Margaret Harris said not enough is known about the science of the coronavirus, and that while “theories” can be talked about, the current situation demanded “action”.

    “Damanded action”….gosh that sounds just like the hype around the Big Lie of climate change, doesn’t it?

    also

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-over-70s-will-be-asked-to-self-isolate-potentially-for-months-11957770

    Jo— — Note : the tagline said “For upto 4 months” on this page https://news.sky.com/topic/coronavirus-8483

    “Coronavirus: Over-70s will be asked to self-isolate, potentially for months
    The government will also tell firms “if you produce a ventilator, we’ll buy it” amid fears of a potential shortage in hospitals.

    “The health secretary has told Sky News that over-70s will be asked to self-isolate “in the coming weeks” to try to protect them from coronavirus – and it could potentially last for months.

    “Matt Hancock also told the Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme that the UK was likely to need “many more times” the current 5,000 ventilators, amid concerns hospitals will come under intense pressure.

    “He said the growing coronavirus outbreak meant “the elderly and vulnerable” would be asked to “shield themselves by self-isolating”.

    “When pushed on whether they could be asked to isolate for up to four months, he said: “That is in the action plan, yes.

    “”And we will be setting it out in more detail when that’s the right time to do so, because we appreciate it is a very big ask of the elderly and vulnerable, and it’s for their own self-protection.”

    20

    • #

      I predict UK will dump this plan in a week. It’s a disaster. Pointless, old repeat aimed to treat a different disease. This is not measles. Won’t work. Will kill many people.

      How long will they sacrifice 30 – 70 year olds before no one in the UK wants to leave home to work?

      Dumb. Stupid. Idiot plan.

      This virus doesn’t seem to generate lifelong immunity — only 1 year likely (who knows). 20% of the adult pop have a nightmare 4 week productivity hit. Some of them die. Then next year herd immunity starts at 0% and we do it all again? Lock up the seniors for months?

      You must be kidding.

      Seeing the disaster unfold in the EU will knock some sense into Boris.

      80

      • #
        mikewaite

        I do not think that one can buy a sledge hammer heavy enough to knock any sense into Boris.
        If the over 70s are forbidden to set foot outside home for 4 weeks then the panic buying will only increase beyond its present absurd level.
        Boris and his teenage ministers are probably unaware that most of the voluntary and church organisations rely on the 60 – 80 cadre
        to maintain them, younger people not having the time, and incresingly not the attitude, to support these groups.
        No one in their 70s expects to live without risk of cancer, prostate problems, dodgy knees, dementia, heart problems, etc.
        To be so afraid of a flu virus that you refuse to go out doors, or that you accept virtual imprisonment is ridiculous beyond belief.

        90

      • #

        Jo

        Sacrifice 30 to 70 year olds? In what way? To date the overwhelming majority of the 31 deaths have been in the over 70′s age group, many well over 70, and virtually all with severe underlying health problems that were critical

        Mind you the idea of quarantining 70 year olds exclusively is counter productive. Keeping fit and socialising are both important elements for this age group and to keep people at home will destroy their physical and mental health. but it’s as yet an idea only, which I doubt will be implemented in the form mentioned.

        Apart from anything else this very independent age group will not like the idea that the lock up is for their own good. They would like to be the judge of that.

        51

      • #
        Edmund Fordham

        Knocking sense into Boris is a tough call for anybody. It will not come from watching the EU. We are not far behind anyway. The basic problem is that Boris, like his useless predecessor, is surrounded by a coterie of “advisers” who are exactly the same kind of career bureaucrat that fought tooth and nail to overturn Brexit. Their objective is survival of the system on which they personally feed, not survival of people. Boris like most politicians is non-numerate and won’t understand geometric series. Every time these clowns puff their position saying it is derived from “the science” they reveal that they aren’t much better. Boris it is true has imported his own Dominic Cummings, the Rasputin-like figure who really runs the show; not currently clear what he thinks. But you can be sure that in something like this, Boris is out of his depth and will remain the mouthpiece of others.

        10

    • #
      Doc

      Would create a wonderful statistical graph and have a relearning epidemiological tutorial.
      If the idea was to get it all over and done with quickly so as to minimise social upheaval
      and keep the wheels of industry turning, surely it would run into a situation where there so
      many infected that everything would come to a sudden, very grinding halt. The elderly
      by that stage wouldn’t be the only ones self isolating. It would look like the ‘Life of Brian’,
      even to the extent of calling ‘Bring out your dead!’

      This is all beginning to look like a nightmare where there is plenty of theoretical knowledge
      and professionals in the field, but they haven’t had the experience of being hard challenged
      By which one grows and hones those learned skills. Reminds one of the lead up to WW2
      where the west knew what was coming but hadn’t the courage to face up to it. Currently
      the West world needs a Churchill willing to receive hard advice and another to give it.

      10

  • #
    george1st:)

    Scomo has certainly been listening to economists too much .
    But at least he isn’t listening to Boris Johnson .
    Uk is not looking good under Bojo’s plans .

    40

  • #
    Hasbeen

    Dam, & I just had my 80Th birthday.

    Hope palliative care is still available, I hate pain.

    Wish me luck.

    70

    • #
    • #
      Doc

      Hasbeen. You’re no orphan. I’ve got the same one close, but my wife is a mere youth, at 78.
      Got any spare beds in an ICU near you if you don’t make the redundancy list? I’m trying to
      quickly learn the words to that old tune ‘So long, it’s been good to know you, So long …..’
      However, I hope the more applicable bit of verse of ‘We’ll all be rooned, said Hanrahan’ will
      apply and we’ll all come out together , have another drink and wonder what’s next.

      10

  • #
    Peter

    This is an excellent bit of reporting from the Washington Post that includes multiple simulations you can run to see different effects.

    STRONGLY RECOMMENDED

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR2izVAuaclR8K6w3541odrAplsxhvDQ0lhU3NU4Y7bqB5letLZu0IfJixk

    20

  • #
    John Galt

    This situation should prove beyond any doubt that the politicians chosen by parties on the primary basis of political reliability are unable to act in a manner to serve the people they are supposed to represent. Democracy has become a popularity contest similar to school class elections. The media tear down any candidate who has had real success in running a large non-political organization where survival depends on delivering products that people will voluntarily consume. People are never given the choice to elect a “leader” with experience in the rational decision making process that is vital to leading a country.
    Politics as a “career” must be banned if the people are ever to be fairly represented.

    81

    • #
      PeterS

      Yes “career politicians” have a lot to answer for, especially since they spend most of the time fighting against each other even within the same party. There is no real solution though. There is no such thing as a benevolent dictator under our style of rule. America is somewhat different in that they do have a Presidential style of rule where the President can to a limited extent enact some things without support from others on either side. Now that he has declared a state of national emergency he can do more. Not sure if our PM can do something similar to get around the Senate blocking things.

      40

  • #
    GD

    For what it’s worth, my report on local conditions in Geelong, not that it is all-encompassing.

    Ten days ago I ordered my usual delivery from Coles online. A few items were missing: toilet paper and high dose Vitamin C.

    Today I had a delivery from Coles online and not only was there no toilet paper, but there were also no tissues, no paper towels, no minced garlic, no methylated spirits, and no baby wipes. The list of panic buying is growing.

    Fortunately, I was able to procure 3 packs of disposable gloves. Was that panic buying?

    Given that I am loathe to visit my local Coles store, I did visit the local Foodworks supermarket. No customers in the store, and four 4-packs of toilet paper left. I took two.

    Tomorrow I need to revisit the local Foodworks in the hope that there might be some toilet paper but more importantly, some salt. Yes, I have run out of salt. Are people panic buying salt?

    I’ll find out tomorrow.

    50

    • #
      PeterS

      The shortage of those items has been going on for too long now. I smell a rat. If it’s simply due to people panic buying then it’s very easy to stop it. Introduce a rationing system based on some identification system. I was at an Aldi store recently and people were picking up the toilet paper from the cart before the store worker had a chance to move them onto the shelves. It’s getting out of control and something needs to be done before fear itself escalates out of control.

      60

      • #

        Peter

        Yes, I am baffled as to why there are not signs in supermarket car parks, on the doors, on the shelves and at the tills pointing out the number of items that can be bought. It seems simple enough to do if it is consistently enforced

        70

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Was that at the local supermarket (Foodland) yesterday.

          I said to the girl on the checkout “Bang goes my chance of getting a trolleyload of toilet paper”. For some reason she laughed out loud.

          40

    • #
      Annie

      I’ve no idea as to whether people are panic-buying salt. However, I recently cleaned out and tidied the pantry (four and a half years after we moved in) and discovered several varied containers of salt tucked in here and there! When I couldn’t see any I bought some; husband and I had a good laugh about it; won’t need any more for a while. I wish I could send you some by some magical transport method GD. We are too far away from you.

      40

    • #

      thanks goodness I still have several months of home grown garlic.

      It’s a bit harsh on the bum though.

      30

  • #
    Roger Knights

    When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn’t
    Megan McArdle, WaPo, March 10, 2020 at 3:33 p.m. PDT

    There’s an old brain teaser that goes like this: You have a pond of a certain size, and upon that pond, a single lily pad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces once a day, so that on day two, you have two lily pads. On day three, you have four, and so on.

    Now the teaser. “If it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?”

    The answer is 47 days. Moreover, at day 40, you’ll barely know the lily pads are there.

    That grim math explains why so many people — including me — are worried about the novel coronavirus, which causes a disease known as covid-19. And why so many other people think we are panicking over nothing.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavirus-what-matters-isnt-what-you-can-see-what-you-cant/?utm_campaign=wp_week_in_ideas&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_ideas

    50

    • #
      PeterS

      Many might not be panicking for now but there are some who are panicking over not just the virus. Central banks around the world are desperately trying to shore up the markets by pumping more and more liquidity into the banking systems to avoid a liquidity crisis. The US in particular is facing a repo crisis that if triggered would spell the end of the US financial system. Their Federal Reserve is doing their utmost to prevent that from happening and so far is working.

      30

    • #
      Rolf

      I warned my friends in late 22nd January. They were laughing at me. No worries at all. Prepare for what ? That is China, it’s not coming here ….
      Well, it did. Now they call and ask what to do, what to buy, what will happen next ? Now suddenly they start to be afraid to get the thing called Wuhan-Covid-19. Yes, that’s because it’s exponential. They react when it’s in the doorway. Like the government. When it’s too late and the pond will be full before they decide where to run. Most of them now around 60-70 years old. Finally understand they are at risk. They are even in the high risk group and now they realize even younger people get it. Now it’s too late to run away. Flights cancelled. Who want to take on someone from Sweden ? Today ? No, dig down. Buckle up. Hope you didn’t get it already … I was at a still open Coffee Shop buying a coffee for my daughter. They were laughing at me. My mask sticks out, yes. But it will keep me safe. Better laugh last than first.

      40

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    ” stockpiling a fortnight’s food ”

    Can someone smack this guy on the side of his head?

    The concept is unrelated to this virus. It is common sense.

    To start, the minimum ought to be 3 days of food, water, and medicines. Then continue building your cache as money and storage space allow.
    Water in 2 types. To drink. To flush. Each person counts.

    Many web pages explain all this.
    Just don’t go for the high priced stuff of “emergency food kits” and survivalist scare tactics.

    [We are up to about a month with our cache.]

    51

    • #
      PeterS

      The problem is the stores can’t keep up with the current demand let alone the increase that will come about if and when people take on board such advice to stockpile for 2 weeks or more. Not looking good for those who have been shopping small amounts and are soon running out of essential items, in particular the elderly. Leadership on the part of governments and shop keepers is hitting a new low.

      51

      • #
        Meglort

        The culprit for the panic is the WHO for telling the world there was nothing to see here and trying their best to keep planes flying to and from China.

        We stocked up on pantry food, gloves, disinfectant, sanitiser, masks, vitamins, water, pet food and bought a spare for key made in china things in January. The three wise monkeys could see what was going to happen then.

        If people were not switched off, living in their WHO, MSM and government induced delusions of comfort and stupidity, relying on the just in time supply chain that has ZERO redundancy or contingency, this problem would not exist. They treat people like babies because they mostly act like them.

        20

    • #
      PeterS

      In other words, stockpiling is the last thing we need to promote. We all should just buy the minimum amount we need. Common sense dictates this.

      31

      • #
        Roger Knights

        “In other words, stockpiling is the last thing we need to promote. We all should just buy the minimum amount we need.”

        That will result in a sharp demand spike down the road, with the devil taking the hindmost, who will encounter bare shelves—and then being forced out of isolation in order to shop repeatedly at supermarkets where there is a high risk of infection.

        Person who stockpile now “flatten that curve” by reducing demand when panic hits, and get the store-supply pipeline up to speed sooner, benefitting all. Jo has explained all this already.

        51

        • #
          PeterS

          That doesn’t help those who continually find the shelves empty right now. Imagine if everyone tried to hoard any amount of essentials today. It would be mayhem. The hoarding needs to be stopped. We don’t need to hoard for the next crisis when we still have one now. We need to be sensible and consider others. Suppliers just can’t keep up with the demand as it is now let alone a spike lasting for days if mroe people started hoarding. This is similar to a bank run. The solution in that case is to shut the doors. It almost came to that point at the last GFC but the central banks around the world stepped in and digitally pumped lots of liquidity in the system and governments calmed people by announcing their guarantees of people’s deposits. Something similar can’t be done for food and other essentials. What they could do is to stop the panic buying by applying more restrictions. If people were sensible in the first place we wouldn’t be having this problem. Of course most people are not sensible.

          20

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            There is an upside Peter.

            All that consumption will help keep the Australian economy out of negative growth in the first quarter 2020 and, accordingly push out any recession to later in the year.

            It might also give the Government’s fiscal stimulus package a bit more time to bite.

            We’ll see.

            20

      • #
        Roger Knights

        PS: I hadn’t been aware of the bare-shelves situation in Australia when I made my comment above. Here in Seattle, my local supermarket had no shortages of anything three days ago. (However, a local drugstore had a sign up saying that it apologized for being out of some items due to the Covid-19 situation.)

        20

  • #
    John-Paul

    Italy, well Milan had 3 cases for 3 weeks then it went exponential.

    Milan has a very high population density and it was cold during that time, Itw their peak flu season.

    We don’t have the same environmental conditions.
    Our flu season is yet to come.

    If we are all going to get it anyway, should we be getting now, before our flu season HITS?

    Closing down now, means we would be in lockdown until September.

    40

    • #
      PeterS

      Agree. If we are to take this outbreak seriously our borders need to be shut down now. Letting people in and telling people to self-isolate is a joke. Either Morrison is totally clueless or he knows something we don’t and he’s just trying to calm us.

      40

      • #
        el gordo

        Morrison’s main aim is to avoid the spike that Italy had. At his press conference yesterday he put up a graph to explain the reasoning, we don’t want to overwhelm the hospitals and medical personal.

        So the authorities are hopeful containment now will avoid a winter disaster. Also, the medical fraternity is pushing ahead quickly with elective surgery to prevent bottlenecks and collateral damage.

        30

        • #
          PeterS

          If he really believes that then he must close the borders now.

          40

          • #
            el gordo

            Australians are trapped overseas, better we get them back and then self isolate.

            Good news from our biggest trading partner.

            ‘China’s decision to comprehensively ban the trade and consumption of wild animals across the country gained strong support from experts and general public as a crucial move to curb the eating of wildlife.’

            China Daily

            20

  • #
    PeterS

    Suggestions of stockpiling is far too late and will only make matters worse. If it is to be permitted then a system must be put in effect to handle the huge increase in demand. One suggestion is to permit shoppers with their last names beginning with A-E to buy on Monday, F-J on Tuesday, etc. and limit of one per customer for all items. Even then I doubt the stores will be able to keep up with the increase demand due to the heightened urge to stockpile by most people. At least it should help. I prefer a more sensible approach that’s for the common good of the whole nation whereby people just bought what they need as per usual. It’s a far fairer approach. When the crisis is over then people should start stockpiling gradually for the next crisis.

    52

    • #
      Annie

      I hear that Woolworth’s are having a set hour for the old and disabled to shop. In theory a great idea BUT from 0700 to 0800!!! Did they think this through? How many old and disabled can be ready to shop at 0700? If they live a good hour or more from the nearest Woolies as we do? Thanks, but no thanks.

      50

      • #
        Annie

        In moderation, my turn! Re Woolies’ shopping hour for the elderly and d1sabled. Late morning would be far better…give them a chance to get dressed and travel there if as far from the big supermarkets as we are. Late morning, time to prepare and travel, before work lunch hour and then shopping time for parents before picking up the stickies from school, etc. 0700 to 0800 for we 0ld and bold is ridiculous timing Woolies!

        50

        • #

          true Annie but they are giving these people first access to new stock which, experience shows, will be gone by late morning.

          I just hope that the scammers and shysters don’t find a way to get access to this stock.

          Be nice everyone.

          50

        • #

          Annie,

          those older people who actually do turn up at that time, and there will be very few of them, as it is so early, will not be destocking the shelves all that much so that staff will need to restock the shelves for when the main hordes arrive, when their old people’s shopping time expires. Also, you have seen images of crowds gathering at start times for supermarkets. That extra hour of crowd buildup will see huge numbers at the doors of those large supermarkets, most now angry that they can’t get in. I cannot imagine old people now having to run the gauntlet of huge angry mob crowds, and the probability of muggings of those older people for their shopping contents.

          It’s a disaster waiting to happen.

          I cannot see frail elderly doing something like this special hour shopping any more times than the very first day it actually happens. Who draws the line at what age? Who then gets designated shoppers to go in for them? Who then gets caught out trying to get back to their cars in the car park? Who protects these older people?

          I see a lot of very scared old people not game to even turn up at shopping centres.

          How has it come to this, spiralling exponentially into what we now see, and the distinct probability that it will spiral even further.

          Tony.

          71

          • #

            Who draws the line at what age?

            ultimately Woolworths staff who will will use government issued cards to define who has access.

            50

          • #
            farmerbraun

            “It’s a disaster designed to happen”
            FIFY

            I’ll take that for you O.K. Boomer!

            20

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Sorry Tony, I think you are being too fearful tis time.
            Have you been there yourself and had this happen to you ?
            Go & see and report back.

            PS Here in Mt barker a few things are in short supply. But we just did a shop and came home with all we wanted.

            20

            • #
              robert rosicka

              Bill did the fortnightly shopping today remember we live out of town and shelves were bare , no mince , no baked beans , no bread , no wraps , no cheaper cheese , no toilet paper, no paper towels , no cheap cuts of meat , no pasta , no rice etc etc etc .
              This was a major supermarket , after visiting Aldi and Coles we managed two packets of expensive fettuccine.

              20

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                Bugger Rob !
                Is this food buying panic a regional thing ?
                I’m just not seeing it happen here – yet !
                ( Toilet paper & sanitiser being the two exceptions

                20

              • #
                robert rosicka

                Friend in Melbourne reports the same thing Bill and others have commented same or similar so consider yourself lucky .

                20

              • #
                Annie

                Robert, as our daughter has been ill I went to Seymour today to try to get her (and us) a few items of shopping. Ghastly; lots of empty shelves in Woollies, Coles and Aldi and shortages in the Discount Chemist. Called in at Foodworks in Alexandra on the way home…not one loo roll anywhere. I feel really sorry for the staff in these places. There have been lots of people coming up from Melbourne, even today, and remarks about faces never seen before in the shop in Alex.
                There was gin available…to drown sorrows! Bizarrely, no shortage of chocolate, including inanely grinning Easter bunnies…yerrk.

                10

  • #
    Rolf

    Now we know true extent of the infection in China ?

    1. Officially reporting 56 cases per million people.
    2. China has about 7.800 million people
    3. That makes 436800 cases
    4. Divide by 80.000
    5. To get true numbers in China multiply by 5 (Infected cases).
    6. Reporting with WHO death rate of 3.4% overall. Which certainly is lower than factual.
    7. 3.5% from 436800 = About 16,000
    8. Funny thing 5 * 3199 (Reported deaths) = 16.000 Give or take.

    24

    • #

      except 2. is incorrect/

      30

    • #
      Zane

      I would not trust any number coming out of China. Their stats are whatever the Chicom politburo says they are. Only coffin manufacturers are likely to have any indication of the true mortality rate.

      30

      • #

        the numbe I questioned (2.) was their population which was 5x the actual value which is probably close to 1.4billion. All the other numbers are estimates of field data and have small to large errors – all except 1 which is derived from the numbers below it and is dependent on them and their errors

        10

  • #

    One reason they’re emphasising the vulnerability of the aged is that they don’t want school closures. The inconvenience has to be managed, like when celebs take private jets to climate conferences to denounce jet travel. Not saying they won’t move up to school closures, but the drill-style management of the chaos is clear to me.

    I’m calling it. This is a fake global emergency built around a probably real virus strain which might kill a fraction of those killed by usual flu. The toll from one can easily be merged with the toll from the other.

    The cratering of the world economy, which has nothing to do with the virus and everything to do with outrageous levels of debt, money printing and market priming, can and has been taken right off the stage. It was either this or aliens arriving as the distraction. We even get the nudge-nudge political factor with bat-eating China and bat-mad Iran as villains.

    Now give me some o’ them ripe, red thumbs. I came round here as a skeptic and I’ll stay or depart as one.

    107

    • #
      PeterS

      The markets were overdue to a big correction, crash or whatever you want to call it, and if it wasn’t for the virus it would have been something else that would have been the last straw. I as expecting the “crash” to have happened over a year ago but as usual I’m too early. It’s very hard to pick the peak of a mania before it happens.

      As for calling it a fake emergency, there is nothing fake about it. Sure it might be over done but that’s because no one really knows how far this virus outbreak will go. Anyone who does is just kidding themselves. Only time will tell. So the politicians are just taking advice from the health “experts” who are almost as clueless as to how far this will go. Sort of like the blind leading the blind so to speak. Perhaps it is a conspiracy and that it’s a dry run for the real thing down the road when they want to instigate a NWO. I rather not continue to speculate on such matter simply because we do not know. I rather just go with the swings and dodge the bullets as best I can.

      60

    • #

      Mosomoso

      I mostly agree with you but then people pile in and say that the two viruses are completely different to each other and no comparison to death rates can be made.

      Where I part co With you is that whilst undoubtedly the world had enough financial problems before the scare started. It has been very much exacerbated by the panic, the loss of output, the loss of earnings and all the things that go with the financial markets and the system being shut diwn?

      The financial hit is likely to be the lasting legacy. Having said that corona virus will be serious for many people already susceptible to common flu and a vaccine needs to be available in case it comes round again in whatever it’s season is likely to be

      30

      • #

        Tony, what I’m saying is that the cratering was due, the “exacerbation” is being posed as a major cause. It’s not easy to take a ’29 or ’87 or ’07 off the front page, and almost impossible to keep it off the middle pages. Yet that is what they have achieved. We are meant to be merging the virus and the economic collapse in our minds. We should not.

        As to whether manipulation could ever go this far…it already has. An example would be Christchurch, where the “real leader” in this emergency rose to stardom over some of the clumsiest and silliest fakery ever staged outside of a Three Stooges episode. (Even the prosecution of the bloke who dared to download the video was faked…clumsily, of course.)

        I’m calling it. Coronavirus is real like Joyce Mayne was real. It exists, but it’s a front and an actor.

        73

      • #
        Roger Knights

        “The financial hit is likely to be the lasting legacy.”

        I agree. The financial system is highly leveraged and can’t stand a hiccup—or, as I’ve been saying, “If you’re up on stilts, a little stumble can lead to a big tumble.”

        40

    • #
      Roger Knights

      See a rebuttal by a WaPo columnist that I posted a bit upthread at http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/more-proof-that-viruses-dont-have-wings-update-slowmo-moves/#comment-2292471

      Yes, I’ll give you a red thumb.

      20

    • #
      RickWill

      My son was quite gung-ho about the virus. He said let it run its course. The death toll will be less than the annual flu.

      He changed his mind when his baby daughter got a temperature and a cough. It is unlikely COVID-19 but it made him think about his physio business and the consequence if he did have the virus. He is calling older patients to tell them that they should cancel appointments as just being in the waiting room presents a hazard. If the virus takes hold in our area and a number of his physios have the virus then they should close the practice. They could probably pay wages for about a month under those circumstances. So it has become a real financial threat for him.

      The nations that acted quickly and overwhelmingly have limited the rapid spread. Italy shows how devastating it can be. This is not imagined. Some younger people who have survived it say it is the worst virus that have experienced.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9oqvJ3iXGI

      Liz Cambage believes she had the virus in China in December while playing basket ball in the Chinese league. It was an unknown virus at that stage. She was hospitalised with it:

      In the interview, Cambage says that she and another player on the LA Sparks contracted the virus and were hospitalized shortly before Christmas.

      It requires something worse than the ‘flu’ to hospitalise a world class athlete.

      Australia could have avoided the current state by requiring all incoming passenger to self-isolate as soon as the virus was known about. That would rapidly curtail incoming flights because no one would come here if they could not do anything for 2 weeks.

      70

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Rick,

        That part of the comment really said a lot:

        “Some younger people who have survived it say it is the worst virus that have experienced.”

        Problem is that unless we know for sure that those “young people” did not have preexisting conditions, then even those comments may be irrelevant.

        KK

        30

        • #
          RickWill

          Problem is that unless we know for sure that those “young people” did not have preexisting conditions,

          Did you look at the video link. The young fellow there did not appear to have any underlying conditions – his nasally tone suggests he might have a propensity for sinus issues; noting he is located in Wuhan that may not have the cleanest air in the world. Here is another one:
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vZJcnPUhjY
          Appears to be in good shape but is on oxygen and stated he was in good health before hand.. No doubt some people have no serious issues but some suffer badly.

          20

  • #
    Another Ian

    “More Vit-D & Immunity Antiviral”

    “So get some sun, or supplement your Vit-D. If a family member is stuck in a “facility”, get their level checked.”

    So no need to start another “panic item”.

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/15/more-vit-d-immunity-antiviral/

    20

  • #
  • #
    Robber

    Retirement village in Melbourne where we live now checking temperature of all visitors and asking whether they have any symptoms or have recently travelled overseas, and recording their contact details. Ready with isolation plan if required for residents.

    50

  • #
    PeterS

    US Fed just cuts its benchmark rate by a full 1% to near zero. We will likely follow for better or for worse.

    30

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      I don’t want to start a panic on cash but….

      Like fuel for your vehicle and gas for your barbies you need to have some spare.

      During the bushfires on the South Coast of NSW over the summer period the power went down. Electonic payment was not available. No POS possible, no ATM. If you didn’t have cash you didn’t have the essentials. Cash was king. IOUs? Nope.

      Who will fill up the ATMs at those magical holes in the wall? Will the banks be able to stay open? Will Woolies give you “cash out” if they don’t have cash and they don’t have POS facilities?

      40

  • #
    Mick

    If people shopped normally there would be plenty for everyone. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen. Consequently, what we need is for the supermarkets to say they guarantee ‘access’ to goods for anyone who is in isolation because they have contracted coronavirus. This may or may not include delivery depending on geographical limitations etc. This measure or something similar would remove the need for people to stockpile goods in case they contract coronavirus and have to be isolated for 14 days.

    30

    • #
      PeterS

      Yes it’s not going to happen simply because panic hoarding started not long ago and is getting worse as people start running out of supplies. The state emergencies being announces today will give power to the states to stop this madness one way or another.

      20

  • #
    PeterS

    More and more nations are declaring states of emergencies. A world lock down is now in the early stages. All non-essential flights looks like ceasing soon. I think I now know why the supermarket shelves are empty for long periods. State governments have been hoarding in preparation of the state of emergencies that have been rolling out today, and then distributing them to the public in a controlled manner. I hope that’s the case because if it’s not then we are deep trouble as the panic hoarding continues.

    40

  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    Our society from PM down has been slow to recognise an essential fundamental – that minimising contact between people, all people, minimises the spread.
    A stethoscope around the neck, a military or police uniform does absolutely nothing to change that principle because the virus does not discriminate that way. So schemes for police to visit homes to enforce quarantines are stupid, more potential harm than good.
    From simple theory, the best all of us can do is to use our individual brains to reduce to near zero, our mixing with other people. Same theory applies across the range from national policy to the household.
    The other good move is to get the maximum number of all people tested by kits in mail and electronic result reporting. Testing gives data. Policies and actions depend on data. Geoff S

    40

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      I have not found any official explanation of the logic of why they don’t test unless you’re in a higher risk group. I can only assume it is contingent upon the testing being currently expensive and limited in supply. Otherwise yeah, you’d just test everyone so that only the 0.1% of the population who are clustered around positive results would be quarantined. Certainly we can already limit asymptomatic spread with general hygiene and social distancing without being tested.

      In Qld the top doc has already said a month ago that testing capacity can be expanded:

      Chief health officer Dr Jeannette Young said the extra capacity at the Herston facility will allow up to 300 extra samples a day to be tested. “This will be invaluable in our efforts to streamline the testing process so we can confirm or rule out coronavirus in a timely manner. This capacity will increase further if it is required,” Dr Young said in a statement.

      But last week we were told there’s a national shortage of kits.

      If they don’t expand testing capacity enormously soon, as South Korea was able to do, then you have to start wondering why. The only reason everyone has to be in self-isolation to limit the spread is because there isn’t the capacity to use mass testing to distinguish who quarantine would be justified for and who it isn’t.
      Very unfortunate to require us to treat everyone else as guilty until proven innocent by a test that hardly anyone qualifies to take.

      And remember, JPEG compression artefacts save lives.

      20

      • #
        Andrew McRae

        Minor update, DCMO Professor Paul Kelly apparently said this yesterday but I hadn’t heard the press conference until now.

        There are some issues in relation to some of the consumables around the test, and we’re certainly looking very closely at that. [...] We’re looking at ways we can deal with that shortage.

        Journo: Is this what’s driving the decision not to test more widely?

        DCMO: We have to look at where we’re doing the testing. That has put some strain on some of these consumables in the laboratory.

        So the tests work but they are new, some other kind of consumable material is needed to run it which labs didn’t have a lot of before this new test type appeared, and it sounds like they can’t run too many of them too soon or they run out of this unnamed magic pixie dust “consumable”.
        If you find any pixies willing to surrender some of their dust, please send the dust to your nearest State serology lab, thanks.

        30

  • #
    joseph

    And then there is the vaccine . . . . .

    They’re skipping the animal trials . . . . and using a $4,500 enticement to get humans to enrol in the study . . . . .

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/moderna-us-niaid-poised-endanger-world-population-james-lyons-weiler/

    20

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Hong Kong issues ‘red’ travel alert on the United States, Britain and Ireland and imposes quarantine measures on arrivals from the three countries and Egypt

    I expect that shortly Australia will be added to the list.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3075294/coronavirus-hong-kong-issues-red-travel-alert

    10

  • #
    Analitik

    If the following article is at all accurate (yes, I don’t take anything from ZeroHedge at face value but their articles aren’t bad for directing further investigation) then the panic may only just be beginning. Worth keeping some more attention from reports out of France and the Netherlands.

    Not Just Seniors: French Doctors Report 50% Of ICU Patients Under 60 Years Old, Netherlands Under 50

    30

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Russian roulette…no thanks…

      Vaccinate the politicians first to prove its safe, and if they dont die…bonus….

      I have heard of vaccines creating heightened sensetivity for the actual disease its supposed to protect against.

      The article also argues that enhanced social distancing could prolong the viruses circulation. Not sure how that works, but i suppose if you are slowly releasing infected people back into curculation it could.

      “SARS-CoV-2 is the sister taxon of SARS-CoV. If pathogenic priming is to occur in humans given spike-protein based SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, as is expected given the SARS spike protein animal studies, the 20% mortality rate expected in the elderly could raise to 40% – and the rest of the population could be sensitized and we could see mortality rates worldwide of the next coronavirus higher than 20%.

      “Which is why skipping animal safety studies for the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is nothing short of reckless endangerment of the the entire human population.

      40

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Sorry…post above was supposed to be a response to #47.

      10

  • #
    Sunni Bakchat

    A question for the JN Blog community.

    During the past few years i’ve seen, as many of us have, several friends and family members come down with the seasonal flu. Many of these infections were from genetic relatives of the Current Coronavirus i.e. the flu virus had a characteristic corona type external structure.

    What was noticeable about these prior coronaviruses was that some people got over the virus quickly with fairly mild symptoms, whilst others remained infected for several weeks. The latter often ended up with lung complications such as viral/bacterial pneumonia. This seems more than just a coincidence.

    Perhaps someone will have a scientific explanation as to whether these same people who were very vulnerable, excluding the already widely promulgated age demographics and pre-existing health conditions, will have greater susceptibility to this latest coronavirus on the basis of genetic pre-disposition of some variety.

    It strikes me that if this latest Coronavirus has a similar modus operandi to the previous coronaviruses, those who were badly affected by previous variants, regardless of age and health, should be very concerned.

    20

    • #

      influenza is not caused by a coronavirus. “Genetic relatives” has no meaning unless you quantify the relationship.

      Your question about retained immunity is interesting and is, to my knowledge, impossible to answer using generalities from prior research as there are many unknowns.

      30

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    And now the States are racing ahead of the Feds with Victoria and ACT declaring an emergency – So much for much vaunted ‘National Cabinet’. Mind you it only meets once a week, and we can see that SloMo is just saying anything that comes into his head. If you want mixed messages – he’s your man.

    /according to the lord of comments ,(Anton) i’m not qualified to comment on this topic, so take what i say with an approved antibiotic.

    36

    • #
      Dennis

      COAG Meeting Communiqué, 13 March 2020
      Friday, March 13, 2020

      The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) held its 48th general meeting today in Sydney. The discussion focussed on Australia’s response to coronavirus (also known as COVID-19) and on recovery from the 2019-20 bushfires. Leaders also made progress on a range of existing COAG priorities, directed at improving the current and future wellbeing of Australians.

      Read more

      21

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        That’s not the National Cabinet – this is https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia/australias-war-cabinet-set-to-meet-as-covid-19-cases-surpass-250-idUSKBN212015
        COAG is a different beast entirely – established in 1992 it is no surprise that it has had 48 meetings – https://www.coag.gov.au/

        11

        • #
          Dennis

          “significant step-up to Australia’s national response to the Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic has been endorsed by the National Cabinet, comprising the Prime Minister, State Premiers and Territory Chief Ministers.

          Based on the advice of the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC), the National Cabinet agreed that our core objective now is to slow the outbreak of COVID-19 in Australia by taking additional steps to reduce community transmission. We must ensure our health system can care for the most vulnerable, in particular the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.”

          Council Of Australian Governments (COAG) has the same structure.

          20

        • #
          Dennis

          Peter, for your information, most government services that impact on our daily lives are State and Local Government areas of responsibility however the Federal Government has input, most often part funding and coordination, but without State cooperation Federal cannot proceed. Snowy Mountains Hydro Electric Scheme took a decade to gain support and cooperation from the State governments that own the land and water supplies, rivers.

          Of course the Nation looks to Canberra for leadership but too often ignore State and Territories.

          30

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      An approved enema might be more appropriate.

      KK

      21

  • #
    Dennis

    15 March 2020

    “Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced plans to impose mandatory self-quarantine on all new arrivals to Australia in an attempt to slow the spread of the Coronavirus outbreak. The measure will take effect from 12 am on March 16 until further notice but will exclude arrivals from the Pacific Islands because the area has so far been unaffected by the crisis.

    The decision by the Australian government to impose such strict entry restrictions comes just a day after New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern announced a similar 14-day self-quarantine order on all new arrivals including returning Kiwis.”

    As I posted earlier, Immigration and other government decisions are usually based on the relationship between Australia and New Zealand, Closer Economic Relations (CER) in place since the 1980s and other agreements such as the ANZUS Treaty.

    20

    • #
      Dennis

      “”The interesting thing about Australia is now they’re using the ‘p’ word, saying this is a pandemic and it’s going to arrive and I think the same message is going out in New Zealand and around the world… It’s looked like a pandemic for three or four weeks and is now exactly behaving like a pandemic.”

      He said New Zealand’s emergency plan was based on its existing influenza plan, and was not unlike Australia’s approach.

      Yesterday, Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the plan would include cancelling large gatherings, stockpiling medicines, preparing potential feeder clinics in the case of a large outbreak, and if necessary, tougher border control measures. Twenty-three Australians have been diagnosed with the virus.

      “New Zealand and Australia have been synchronising approaches to this,” Baker said.

      “We have the same broad phase, with very similar elements, excluding travel from high-incidence countries and other measures to limit transmission if people arrive with the virus.

      “And, what was described in Australia is what is exactly what’s happening in New Zealand, moving and planning for the management phase. This is when we have sustained transmission in New Zealand.”"

      nine.msm.nzr

      31

  • #
    WXcycles

    Coronavirus panic buying sees supermarkets launch dedicated shopping hours for elderly and people with disabilities

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-16/coronavirus-australia-live-updates-covid-19-latest-news/12058472

    I’ve not seen much of the ‘panic buying’ so far. Saw depleted shelves earlier last week, rice, long-life milk and olives were low, but the shelves filled again by the weekend, and now I can get anything I want, per normal. So I’m wondering how oldies and disabled-only shopping hours will help them? I can’t remember the last time I saw a physically disabled person in a supermarket though I have seen quite a lot of mentally-disabled people out shopping, (but probably not officially considered disabled). The oldest shoppers don’t seem to have much trouble filling up a trolley they’re just a bit slower unloading and processing it at a checkout. Seems a bit over the top.

    30

  • #
    WXcycles

    Stockmarket down about 5.2% today.

    30

  • #
    Dennis

    During the 2019-2020 Bushfire Season the Federal Government and in particular the Prime Minister were blamed for what was a State Emergency Services responsibility.

    Now with the coronavirus a similar blame pattern is emerging, so here is how our health care system works;

    https://www.health.gov.au/about-us/the-australian-health-system

    40

  • #
    Mark Alves

    You lost me at Jacinda Ardern – the real leader. The queen of the open borders has now closed the borders and is a leader. Who would have thought ….

    70

    • #

      I was pretty astonished myself to find Ardern top of the list.

      Perhaps it’s a spot of luck, her leading the last first world nation to get this disease and having that moat, and not having the conflicts of interest re Chinese students that made Australia so nutty.

      70

      • #
        Steve

        NZ did not close the borders any sooner than Aus, both self-quarantine regulations start today. It is entirely possible that the NZ and Aus authorities were already discussing a unified stance and Ahern announced it earlier to get the attention.

        60

        • #
          Greg in NZ

          Victoria University, aka Climate Change Central, in Wellington began shrieking about letting Chinese students ($$$) back into the country ‘no questions asked’ from the get go (or is that gecko?).

          Our ‘tyranny of distance’, ie. the moat, may be a blessing in disguise. Boat people? Refugees? Yeah right.

          Post Script: snow on the Southern Alps tonight/tomorrow as a cold southerly gets sucked north by the glancing ex- troppo heading east. That’s two snowfalls (at least) per month for the first three months this year – also called ‘summer’. Globull Worming, where is thy sting!

          50

    • #
      DOC

      Have the ‘progressives’ and the greens had any policies instituted that haven’t resulted in
      disasters? Please name one if you can. Thankfully, at the end of the day even they get forced
      to actual use the common sense so often found in middle Australia, the delcons, the deplorables
      and in the bush. Anywhere but at a university.

      40

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Please name one if you can.

        Tough question DOC, but I love a challenge.

        Try these for size:

        USA: Jim Crow – now that was a beauty. It was proceeded by the Democrat’s support of slavery and more recently segregation.

        Oops! On second thoughts, they were disasters.

        So, cancel that.

        Closer to home? Yep. Got one there.

        The White Australia Policy of the Labor lovies, their lefty comrades and their union owners.

        Wasn’t that a success?

        What? No?

        Look. You’ve got me beat. Can’t think of any that meet your criterion.

        What about PVs? Windmills? Anti-nuclear? Anti-coal? Anti-fracking? Geo-thermal? Pumped hydro?

        No? Well then, try Keynesian economics. Deficit funding? National debt at unprecedented levels?

        Socialism. Now that’s got to be a winner. No?

        What do you mean, no? Venezuela? Cuba? Kampuchea? Zimbabwe? North Korea? USSR? East Germany? Poland? Peoples Republic of China?

        They were all successful weren’t they?

        10

  • #
    Steve of Cornubia

    Apart from apparent genetic components affecting who get is, who doesn’t and who suffers most, there is another discriminatory mechanism happening: this pandemic will hurt more conservative leaders than leftwing.

    Just take a look at the MSMs coverage of actions around the western world. No matter what the measures are, it is likely to be reported as too much or too little, too early or too late when instigated by a conservative. More or less the same measures, when implemented by a leftwing leader, are roundly applauded.

    We’re about to see more ‘collateral disruption’ over the coming days, as state leaders scramble over each other to appear more in control than Morrison and secure the ‘statesmanlike’ award from Their ABC.

    50

  • #
  • #
    Another Ian

    BEWARE IN YOUR LOOKING FOR CORONAVIRUS INFORMATION

    “jim2 says:
    16 March 2020 at 1:53 am

    Beware of web sites and emails bearing dashboards!!!

    In one scheme, an interactive dashboard of Coronavirus infections and deaths produced by Johns Hopkins University is being used in malicious Web sites (and possibly spam emails) to spread password-stealing malware.

    Late last month, a member of several Russian language cybercrime forums began selling a digital Coronavirus infection kit that uses the Hopkins interactive map as part of a Java-based malware deployment scheme. The kit costs $200 if the buyer already has a Java code signing certificate, and $700 if the buyer wishes to just use the seller’s certificate.

    https://krebsonsecurity.com/2020/03/live-coronavirus-map-used-to-spread-malware/

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/14/14-march-2020-covid-19-usa-state-of-emergency-italy-over-1000-dead/#comment-126624

    10

  • #
    Meglort

    I know a lot of you do follow this, but there is a really good episode on Peak Prosperity today, with visualisations on the effect of lockdowns, etc.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efaDuE-XEi4

    The debunking the garbage on masks not being of use is good too, specifically in reducing the amount of viroid inhaled. A reduced level of contagion taken on board has been seen to reduce the severity of the disease if it occurs.

    Telling people that masks are of no use is the single biggest bit of misinformation they are persisting with from the propaganda outfits still.

    30

    • #
      ianl

      The very best surgical masks have a mesh size suitable perhaps for filtering bacterial-sized pathogens – typically 100x the size of the corona viruses

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1524265

      It’s like trying to catch a sewing pin with a coarse fishing net. The virus has a nanometre size range from 20-100.

      Molecules of N2, O2 and CO2 (ie. air in proportion)are larger.

      30

      • #
        Meglort

        It is about reducing the initial load.

        You are assuming there is zero adherence and only one layer of mesh and that viroids are completely unattached to mucosa or other particles.

        Initial load reduction is important due to the delay in immune response/cascade especially when this virus attacks the immune cells themselves.

        What you said is the misinformation I was referring to.

        10

  • #
    PeterS

    There are a number of 15-minute test kits being developed by various nations but none are approved as yet. The rush to develop such kits is understandable. Their accuracy might not be as good but it’s better than nothing if they can distributed to the masses.

    10

  • #
    PeterS

    US clinical trial for corona virus vaccine to begin Monday. Israel not far behind with their research. The trials will last for a year :-(

    30

  • #
    Zane

    Lots of empty shelves at the local Woolies. Breakfast cereals practically gone, apart from some overpriced Uncle Toby’s and weird granola flavours.

    30

    • #
      PeterS

      Vegetable all gone at our local Coles. This is madness.

      20

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      I spotted some toilet paper in Aldi today! A whole pallet of it.
      But I didn’t buy any because for the last 2 months I already had enough to last 5 months. Not hoarding, just lucky in timing that I bought a six pack 2 months ago, before all this hoo-hah from Wuhan landed.

      But Coles was emptied of pasta, frozen vegetables, and UHT milk, and nobody has hand sanitiser.
      Paradoxically, I normally get UHT, so today was the first time in a long time that I had to buy fresh(er) stuff.

      A trick with hand sanitiser, if you get desperate, is to make your own from a 10% diluted solution of bleach or else by using a 75% to 80% methylated spirits in water mixture. I’ve heard of people mixing some aloe vera lotion in to make it more clingy than runny (and I guess WHO’s formula uses Glycerol for that purpose.) Mix it up, and put it in a mini pump bottle (NOT a spray bottle!) for portability. Or cut up an old t-shirt or shirt (in this economy you won’t be using that business shirt anyway, right guys??), then soak the cloth in the mixture and bam, there’s your DIY disinfectant wipes. Can carry several in a ziploc bag in your pocket. Unlike disposables you can wash, dry, then resoak and reuse these wipes.
      It should work, because the free chlorine in bleach kills nearly anything, and metho (in Australia) is often 95% ethanol, far more than the 60% minimum for zapping viruses.

      I’m not a doctor, I only play one on television.

      30

  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    Just returned from town with replacement supplies for prepping stash started six weeks ago. That Chernoble feeling: Quickly in and out without breathing and touching things too much. On returning to sanctuary of home aspirated some 42% gin to deactivate any baddies in the back of the throat. Anyway, that’s life thesedays, and as my favourite childhood song goes “Goodbye Jo, me gotta go, me oh my oh.”

    30

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Seems pithy in this case by Ben.

      As far as i know, staying home a few days will do little as much to halt the spread of unsatisfactory reporting skills. might buy a few days… Have i heard yet of the virus ravaging an entire family in Italy??…the answer is ‘no’ so far. Spoke to my cousin in law, Spoke to my cousin….not five minutes ago…..the question was….hey cuz….do you know anyone personally in Italy that currently has the corona??….the answer is “no” so far from two sources who have many sources in Italy…..draw your own conclusion, i have mine..

      “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”

      Ben Franklin

      21

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        There are analogues in the west, however, i am at a loss from all that has been described that i can find..basically here there and so on………the hijab, a ‘niqab‘, a burka, a chador, or khimar. ?? ..which is better??

        10

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          doctors??

          10

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            If i find a relative with corona, i will extend this post whilst ‘if’ thus i receive new ….entirely “new” news. Will try my best to keep you pod/posted.

            We have new things happening and there has been lots of news….so far my cousin has not heard of immediate friends or family in Italy who have the virus that i can verify with my own very small bandwidth.

            20

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      On returning to sanctuary of home aspirated some 42% gin to deactivate any baddies in the back of the throat.

      Neat!

      00

  • #
    williamx

    FYI

    Travel updates from the Qantas website dated 15th March:

    Quote.

    “the risk of catching a virus on an aircraft is low. Inflight transmissions haven’t been a feature of this outbreak. As the US Centres for Disease Control says, “the cabin air environment is not conducive to the spread of most infectious diseases“.

    Qantas then state further down the webpage:

    “Some customers who have travelled on recent Qantas services have tested positive for Coronavirus. Medical advice says that customers sitting in the same row, or within two rows of these customers are at a higher risk of exposure.”

    end quote.

    My point.

    In response to coronavirus, Qantas has posted advice from the US Centres for Disease Control.
    The said advice is generic. It does not state whether Covid-19 is transmissible or not on an aircraft.

    Qantas states that inflight transmissions haven’t been a feature of this outbreak.

    Well if Covid-19 is not transferrable on an aircraft, as Qantas is alluding to, why do they later say that some passengers are at higher risk of exposure on their flights?

    30

  • #
    liberator

    Why do they recommend coughing into your elbow? Aren’t droplets going to spray outwards and become airborne before landing on surfaces/people? Coughing into your elbow is not going to contain much, as is sneezing, they don’t seem to recommend sneezing into your elbow. Just open up and let it fly. What happened to the humble old hankie? Doesn’t anyone use these nowadays?

    40

    • #
      el gordo

      Handkerchiefs are uncommon.

      It now appears that a wet winter in Australia could be problematic. The virus will survive longer in moisture laden air, not so important whether its hot or cold, but its reckoned solar radiation decays the virus faster.

      20

  • #
    Cynic from Ayr

    A couple of comments:
    One, you are all so freaking smart – After the event! He shoulda, she shoulda. It’s just gringeworthy to read most of these comments, feeding off each other.
    Two, everyone here is now a “medical expert”, when they have no expertise. Just the same as you all moaned about the “climate experts”, who had no expertise.
    Three, Work from Home. OK, doctors, nurses, police, delivery drivers, long haul truck drivers, power station workers, mechanics, pharmacists and their staff, grocery store staff, the people who make up the online orders at the grocery store, service station staff. Add in another ten million!
    Four, you will expect the electrician or phone technician to leave his home, to fix your crap so you can work at your home!

    All you jackasses who sit on your arse at home pretending to produce something, are so introverted that you don’t even realise the people who deliver to your little cave, ARE NOT WORKING FROM HOME.

    This site has gone from people with common sense, critical of people with no knowledge, to a pack of morons buying toilet paper.

    Not worth reading anymore.

    [ best you read the first thread Jo has done on this topic then the rest in order and come back with a comment. [ AD]

    16

    • #

      Cynic, sorry to hear this is not your cup of tea so to speak. I hope to fit in more of the usual stuff soon. But this pandemic is at a critical historic point.
      Decisions made now can help a lot of people. Other things can just wait.

      BTW – Hard to believe but virology and epidemiology, disease and genes grips me (and always has) far more than climate change. Those were my majors. I never would have guessed in a million years I’d one day write a blog about climate and renewables. Never.

      110

      • #
        Doc

        Apologies for a comment above. Didn’t check your CV in haste ( although I did cover my
        error with a quick apology in case I did you wrong)

        00

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Wow Cynic !
      You had a lot to get off your chest about stuff which you know absolutely nothing.
      Jo is one of a few select wonderful bloggers who has been warning us here about this infectious COVID disease for 7 weeks
      And asking our national government to adopt policies which stops the disease in it’s tracks. : Stop The People Stupid !
      Over the last few days the government seems to have actually realised the necessity to do this with it’s ALL Arrivals Must Quarantine” policy !
      Congratulations Jo & thank you !
      It’s been a long hard exhausting campaign.

      PS Has anyone else noticed how suddenly Climate Change is not a front page issue anymore ?
      A couple more weeks without all the media oxygen and it will be dead
      And then we will be able to relax a bit on that media ’cause celebre’, as well !

      40

      • #
        robert rosicka

        What is this climate change you speak of ? If there was anything to it I would be able to find a scary climate story on their website !

        10

    • #
      StefanL

      Cynic,
      I agree with you about people working safely from home expecting other poor slobs to NOT work from home.

      00

  • #
    David

    Stocked up from Woolies today for the first time since coming back from interstate earlier in the week. We had been running down our supplies as we were planning to spend 6 months in the Mediterranean for summer. That’s out the window now, so stocking up for 2 is the objective. No real problems. Store here on the Sunny Coast was not particularly busy, but as usual no hand wash nor toilet paper. Preparing to follow the Government guidelines on staying at home, social distancing etc. Because of our interest in the Mediterranean we have been watching closely what Italy, Greece and other countries are doing. What is really sad is that tourist oriented businesses here will go to the wall in numbers. No tourists means the peak earning season will be lost. We will most likely put off our plans for 12 months.

    50

  • #
    TdeF

    It is clearly a killer for the over 70s. However I am not clear as to how sick someone who is 35 can get? Do they end up on respirators too?

    Beware that lung diseases can cause lifelong damage.

    There is a vast different between surviving and surviving in good shape.

    There is also the serious risk that the 20-50 generation see it as not their problem and expect not to get sick, or any sicker than a flu.

    60

    • #
      Konrad

      Fair questions.

      The first thing to understand is COVID-19 is not a “respiratory illness”, it is a coronavius that attacks any site with high ACE2 receptor count in the body. That includes: lungs, small intestine, kidneys, heart and testis.

      Most of those who contract the virus will experience very mild symptoms and no long term effects. However around 20% will suffer serious illness, and while most of these “recover”, it is almost certain that many will have ongoing heart and kidney problems and many of the “recovered” males from this group will also be sterile.

      As to the younger age bracket, the evidence from Italy indicates around 50% of those getting seriously ill are under 60 years of age. While the “recovery” rate for this age group (while breathing assistance remains available) is higher than the older seriously ill patients, they will suffer damage to the heart, kidneys and testis.

      A great deal of this was discovered in the autopsies of SARS victims. SARS also targeted the ACE2 receptor.

      50

      • #
        TdeF

        Thanks. Awful facts, good answer.

        “50% of those getting seriously ill are under 60 years of age”

        “they will suffer damage to the heart, kidneys and testis”

        If this was better known, it would remove the complacency which is coming from misinformation, such as Britain’s incredible idea of rapid ‘herd immunity’ as a solution. At what cost!

        50

    • #
      TedM

      “However I am not clear as to how sick someone who is 35 can get? Do they end up on respirators too?”

      How sick can a 35 YO get with the coronavirus get. They can get sick enough to die, some of them do. Just not as many as the 60 YO plus do. Do they end up on respirators? Yes they are usually on a respirator when they die. Not all of them that end up on respirators die of course but they probably got the respirator in preference to a 70 YO, which is why the 70 YO died.

      I hope that answers your question adequately.

      50

    • #
      WXcycles

      Suspect it has a lot to do with low exertion levels in some (poor work ethic in general), poor diet and routine substance abuse that undermines an element of the young population, plus some who are sick already.

      30

      • #
        Meglort

        It is also suspected that they received a high initial virus load, such as yelling at each other 6 inches away in a nightclub.

        Don’t know whether they were clubbing, partying, whatever.

        One paper estimated 10^8 viroids in a cough from a super spreader.
        Obviously if you inhale deep into your lungs that many viroids that then start replicating, and it hammers your immune cells, it has overcome your immune response capability before you can respond.

        Another early study from Wuhan tracked death closely to the breakdown in immune response capability and it was suspected to be from high initial viral load.

        10

  • #
    Alan Burdon

    If schools are closed and parents are needed at work it will be grandparents taking up the minding duties; just the cohort who should be the most separated. Killed by your grandkids; a fine way to end.

    50

  • #
    Another Ian

    Be thankful for small mercies by the look of this – you could be in Canada!

    “Your Government Is Here For You”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/03/16/your-government-is-here-for-you-2/#comments

    And comments

    10

  • #
    Broadie

    A quick google search for a health system at capacity.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/record-flu-numbers-sweep-australia-in-unexpected-season/news-story/72417aa44b77194a92966515b01998af

    Warns season will be earlier due to increased travel from the Northern Hemisphere winter.

    10

  • #
    MJB

    In reality, lots of people clearly plan to destroy more than three months of everyone’s life and work, and do so without any good reason to think that such an intervention to mankind’s life makes a radical impact on the fate of the virus. It is spectacularly obvious that with this approach, the mitigation efforts are not worth it!
    Lubos Motl

    31

  • #
    el gordo

    Brisbane hospital finds cure for Covid-19, its a combo HIV drug and anti-malarial drug.

    20

  • #
    GD

    Coles and Woolies have suspended home deliveries. So now everyone has to go into a store to scavenge what they can of what is on the shelves.

    How is self-isolation even possible with this ridiculous policy?

    20

  • #
    GD

    A good public address by Trump and a great address from VP Mike Pence. This is how it’s done, Scott Morrison.

    20

  • #
    Doc

    A virology gent on Tucker Carlson’s program today says that in France , of those that are
    admitted to hospital more than 50% are under 60yo – a complete turn around of information.
    Seems the healthcare people have a worse time than most patients with The disease. Presumably
    they get a heavier dose from continual contact. There must be a ‘fairly large supply of antiCOVID-19
    antibodies running around in those that have recovered lately. Maybe na bit of plasmapheresis
    could be done to assist the worst off. Not my field, but a thought.

    10