Look at State by State outcomes: visit Covid Act Now
Its an excellent display of modeled outcomes across the US*. Click on each state in the US to find out predicted death tolls and the day hospitals will be overwhelmed with too little action.
Dear readers, get out of the way of this virus. My advice is to stay home. Order online. Wear masks if you have to venture out. Keep kids home from school. Don’t visit anyone or allow visitors in to your home who have not strictly quarantined for the last two weeks. We started this last week.
h/t Bill in Oz.
Eg It’s too late now for New York State to avoid losing control of hospitals
But they could still Crush the Curve and save a lot of people, but even that action now will have far higher death tolls that it would if it had been started last week.
New York State has a population of 20 million. So the figures in the table below are directly comparable to Australian outcomes with a population of 25m (with the hope that lower population density, warmer weather, and two weeks warning could be an advantage.)
New York outcomes.
There are four levels of action modeled here (from March 19th). The final death tolls are very different.
New York outcomes.
The advantage of “Crushing the Curve” now means we can wait to find out which treatments work. It’s always possible to ease up on the level of quarantine and pick the higher death toll options, but it isn’t possible to choose the low death futures if we do too little too late. If we are headed for the Wuhan Style lockdown anyhow, sooner is better, and we can release it later when extra hospital beds or drugs or treatments are available. Figure that even if we choose “Social distancing” now, once people see the lists of obituaries and queues of coffins, and desperation in hospital wards as awful choices are made, many people will voluntarily stay housebound. The CCP was ordering workers to go back to work, but they didn’t want to.
Eg. California needs to act this week
California outcomes.
…
California outcomes.
*All models are still wrong. But discuss the assumptions, don’t shoot the messenger.
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Coronavirus Background: ☀ The Demographics: the severity increases with age, and slightly more for men than women. ☀ The Ro is 2 – 3 and exponential curves are steep. How Coronavirus kills: why the number of ICU units matters so much. ☀ Illness progression: Dry coughs and Fevers, Aches. In 15% of people, by day 5 breathing trouble starts. In 3% (?) by day 8 they may need an ICU (intensive care unit). ☀ The good case of Singapore but the ominous calculations of how fast the ICU beds may run out. ☀ Proof that viruses don’t have wings and we should have stopped all flights so much earlier. ☀ The story of how American Samoa avoided Flu Deaths with quarantine in 1918. ☀ The story of Vo, the Italian town that stopped the virus. ☀ Delay = Death, statistics show mortality rates rise tenfold if hospitals are overwhelmed. ☀ Projections of all US States death tolls depending on quarantine levels and the date that hospitals could be overwhelmed ☀ One doctor describes his “Holy S***” moment ☀ ☀ ☀
We must Crush the Curve to save lives and the economy.
Economics: ☀ The huge impact on the Chinese economy ☀ the awful case of Iran.☀
Beware UN advice: ☀ Ethiopian WHO chief was part of China’s debt trap diplomacy ☀
Stats and Data: ☀ John Hopkins Live Map ☀ Worldometer ☀ Coronavirus data in Australia ☀