JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Doctors in West Australia call for closure of state borders

Western Australia, WA. Map.I seem to have the uncanny ability to predict what frontline experts will recommend days in advance. It’s not genius. Just medical training and that the solution to this is so Bleeding Obvious, and politicians are still 2 to 3 weeks behind an exploding epidemic of an inanimate nucleic acid code.

WA hospitals call for state border closures to deal with coronavirus fears (COVID-19)

Top doctors across WA’s biggest hospitals are sensationally calling for the state to effectively close its borders to protect West Australians from the coronavirus pandemic.

In a remarkable letter obtained by The West Live to be discussed exclusively on this morning’s show, it can be revealed the Combined Medical Leads Advisory Group has raised concerns about the “extremely limited” availability of testing infrastructure and supplies in WA.

The group, which includes senior medicos from FSH, RPH and SCGH, also warns there is “limited evidence of effective anti-viral treatment”, “no effective vaccine” and that rationing is already in place at hospitals.

It recommends that to “flatten the curve” that attention should be paid to “extending isolation restrictions to all personal interstate travel”.

Just to spell this out, all states without community transmission have the chance to quickly put this virus back in the box. The first thing they need to stop is stop flying in the virus. Then they track and isolate all current cases, and if appropriate, tell people to stay home, call off all movement in the state and suspend everything bar essential services. Then within three to four weeks said state will be in blissful nirvana where all citizens can fly inside the state, take holidays, resume their normal jobs, send their kids to normal schools, and get elective surgery, medical care and all the normal things we hope for.

After this point border quarantine must be maintained. The state must be vigilant for any outbreak. When outbreaks occur, we track and trace.

As I said two days ago, trucks and trade still cross the border even during the lockdown but the drivers (fresh virus fuel) are either swapped at the border or kept only in special sealed hotels before they return.

So if you want to save the local economy, thousands of lives and our very way of life — Close the Borders Now.

I remain baffled as to why so many people think we have to let this virus run wild, and why the cost of domestic door to door lock down is not seen as hideously expensive and therefore state border closures are a bargain compared to the inevitable pain and suffering coming.

In the UK and US, Canada there will still be regions where there is no community spread yet. These can be saved, and then as more clean regions are achieved more flights and movement between these safe regions will rescue airlines, tourism agents, etc etc. The world will soon be divided into the countries or states which have beaten this virus and those which haven’t.

The Clean World = Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Russia, Hong Kong, Singapore. Imagine your home state there and start working on that future.

Note from blogger: For fed up readers — yes, I get it. Normal transmission will resume soon. In comments, I’ve explained that the area of science I was always most passionate about was virology, disease, and genes (my majors and research)*. I would never have guessed in a billion years that I would end up writing a blog on climate science. And just as I feel in the climate debate that I can help the hands-on experts explain their case with renewable energy and meteorology, in this medical debate there are thousands of doctors and medical researcher nerds who are political and media naffs that seem to need some help.

*Also prevention of such, which means nutrition etc — don’t get me started, take your D, Zn, and Se. :- )

 

 

 

 

 

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Rating: 9.5/10 (59 votes cast)
Doctors in West Australia call for closure of state borders, 9.5 out of 10 based on 59 ratings

119 comments to Doctors in West Australia call for closure of state borders

  • #
    James Poulos

    What a ‘Novel’ idea – ‘Doctors with Borders’.

    220

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Hi Jo there are only 2 major roads into WA From South Australia & from the Northern Territory.
      And then there is the airport.

      Soooooo.. Closing the borders would be pretty simple & effective..
      So
      JUST DO IT WA!

      151

      • #
        bulldust

        An the FIFO workers in the north that live in Bali, flying into sites in the Pilbara etc. They then mix with other workers and the virus makes its way back to Perth. Simples.

        Still think a lot of attention should be given to hydroxychloroquine sulphate which works with zinc to stall virus reproduction intra-cellularly (in vitro tests demonstrate). See the Medcram video from a few days back. Also, some question has been raised about the effect of anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), but the science is not clear on whether they may help or harm when Covid-19 is present.

        40

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Bill I’ve been to WA through four different border crossings and still have more to complete the set.
        Sealed there’s only two ways but unsealed is a different story .

        40

        • #
          LightningCamel

          Hear, hear. I think I’ve been on five and plenty more to go. Bulldust also has a good point, WA has real exposure to the rest of the world.

          30

          • #
            robert rosicka

            Yes it does through its mining exports and tourism , next crossing I do will be from Tennant Creek to Halls creek .

            20

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Any FIFO flying in from Bali is now quarantined for 14 days.!
        Don’t think it’s happening !

        30

  • #
    Betty Luks

    Jo,

    As you say the virus needs a host to survive.

    But what about those people already carrying the virus?

    Can you explain to an ignoramus such as me how the virus is killed/dies in a, infected host such as a human being?

    Is it by medicine, etc., or does the person develop an immunity to that particular strain? or both?

    50

    • #

      I suggest reading as I think you are confused about the basic biology.

      The immune system is a complex set of mechanisms for identifying and killing/destroying uninvited guests in the body. If it works well, in this case the virus, the system will remove all living viruses and infection is then no longer possible. Medicines can play a role but the primary agent is the body’s own defences.

      There are buts though and there are a great many different scenarios depending on the virus. Some can lay dormant by hiding out and reappear due to some sort of stimulus. Some can find a way to infect others even though they are not doing anythin to attract the attention of the immune system of the carrier.

      After infection a person is usually immune to re-infection due to the body remembering the previous infection and being very effective at stopping a new infection. But again there is variation. For some viruses the immunity is close to lifelong but for others much less so.

      141

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Gee Aye, there are also the psychological aspects to the virus hysteria that can perhaps harm those who are susceptible to it.. Sam Vaknin in the sobering video link below has something to say about the psychological aspect of the corona and as an asides, was allegedly in university by the age of 12 from memory.

        From the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oN6i3Gx22kc
        “Narcissistic Coronavirus for Narcissistic Civilization (LINKS in DESCRIPTION)”

        40

      • #
        Peter C

        Thanks Professor,

        Betty, I hope that helps your understanding. I do think that Gee is trying to help here.

        30

      • #
        Analitik

        I cannot understand the downvote you got for this, Gee Aye – I have found your comments on Covid-19 informative and well reasoned.

        I may not agree with you on Climate Change but I am more than willing to acknowledge the contributions you are providing on this topic. A green thumb from me.

        40

  • #

    I wonder whether all the current hot spots around the world were already seeded by infected Chinese travellers before the Chinese authorities admitted to having a problem.
    If so, the opportunity to prevent the spread via flight restrictions was lost in January before such restrictions could even begin.
    It then spread quietly for a few weeks between members of the local Chinese communities until In mid February it started turning up in the indigenous populations.
    On that basis, we never had a chance. Our authorities faced a fait accomplis with only damage limitation open to them.

    153

  • #
    TdeF

    It’s all the same stuff. Journalists who think their opinions are more important than facts, science, real virologists, microbiologists, disease experts. Journalists who hate Donald Trump. And journalists and the EU and UN who demand borders be kept open, as did Joe Biden. The same story from Joe Biden “Listen to THE science”. I wish he would.

    Everything President Trump says is misreported, edited, part reported by the same suspects, the Washington Post, the New York Times and most of Hollywood. The stock exchange crash was caused by the trade war between Russia and Saudi, not coronavirus. Trump’s decision to buy up oil reserves at rock bottom prices is what a smart businessman would do and why he is President. The stock exchange has been making money from corona virus, dumping, buying, dumping. That’s what it does.

    Woke Boris Johnson is listening to the wrong people, not understanding that no one gets herd immunity to corona virus. The same is true for his man made Climate Change/Global Warming/extinction zero nett CO2, Boris is listening to his friends.

    Except this time events are overrunning the journalists and opinionistas and late night comedians. 32 years for climate Change and nothing has happened but countries are slamming borders shut. Including Germany. That’s not xenophobia or racism, it’s reality.

    And Hollywood is still blaming Trump, even hoping the economy crashes. There is even an opinion that older people are more Conservative so a mass wipeout of older voters would be good for the Democrat in November. When they should be getting behind the President, they are, with knives.

    So keep up the good work.

    I learned a great deal which is not in the popular press. The most important is that the Corona virus will really hurt young people 20% of them with severe symptoms, that 50% of people with severe symptoms are under 50, that it attacks the kidneys, small intestines, heart, testes and lungs. That’s why the pain in the gut. Worse, many survivors will be sterile and damaged lungs will take years to heal, if ever. And that any immunity is short term.

    The Climate can wait. It isn’t changing anyway. Or if it is, slightly, it’s not anyone’s fault. And certainly not the Chinese government.

    The very best news is that Clinical HUMAN trials have started in the US!

    222

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      The stock exchange crash was caused by the trade war between Russia and Saudi, not coronavirus.

      I agree.

      The Oil price hit its peak of US$63.27 on 6 January 2020 and declined rapidly from there to US$51.43 the day before the first of the three black crows on the stock market – 24 February. The stock market followed it down from there, rapidly.

      Oil is now trading at US$28.70 on 14 March. It led the stock market down, not the Coronavirus.

      https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/cl%3Anmx

      53

      • #
        robert rosicka

        More to it than just oil , anything related to travel is taking a hit .

        20

        • #
          David A

          By the end of January massive quarantine was underway in China.
          The stories coming out of China were a horror show. The sudden stop in China production was steep and real. The implications were far reaching.

          The continued collapse in oil was caused by the frozen Chinese economy.

          The underlying tremendous structural leveraged debt globally, and the fear of that debt unwinding (happening now) along with global economies mimicking China, us a burden the global economy can not take.

          00

    • #
      truth

      TdeF:

      Where does that information about under 50s and the aftermath of terrible organ damage you describe come from?

      20

  • #
    BoyfromTottenham

    Hi Jo,
    A very interesting post from Willis Eschenbach “The Diamond Princess Mysteries” over at WUWT today – a detailed analysis of the COVID-19 illness stats. It seems that, despite the ship appearing to be a veritable ‘Petri dish’ for transmission of the virus and withthe population strongly skewed towards those over age 60 (pax and crew), over 85% of those onboard did NOT get infected, and of those that did around 50-60% had NO symptoms! Looking forward to your thoughts!

    131

    • #
      Peter C

      Thanks BfT,

      I have been looking for some analysis of the Diamond Princess data for about 4 weeks. Willis has served it up for us on a plate, with a reference.

      This is all very positive.

      1. Most people on board managed to avoid infection, despite exposure for 2 weeks.

      2. A lot of people who tested positive did not get symptoms.

      Consequently I will be practising a lot of hygiene and some social distancing. It might be enough until a vaccine gets here.

      51

      • #
        David A

        Peter, IMV Willis is very premature here.

        Almost 20 percent were infected.

        How long was the Diamond Princess in semi quarantine? Less then a month with about 8 doubling events.
        ( Not Good)
        Most of that time supposed isolation in seperate rooms, small groups only out, keeping seperate.

        So a poorly done quarantine, perhaps analogous to treating this like a common flu.

        Fully one third of the passengers are not recovered. Mean illness time of those passengers is at least one month, a reasonable WAG of 5 weeks.
        15 are serious / critical. The other 218 are still sick! I will wait to see how many of the serious/critical recover, and which way the 218, still sick after 5 weeks go, before coming to any mortality number.

        Perhaps most important here, all received excellent medical care and the final CFR could be 3 to 5 percent.
        That and only a month of spreading, and then true quarantine stopped the spread in its tracks. The lesson here is true quarantine works, and this virus has a very high R naught.

        Just my perspective.

        50

    • #
      Analitik

      As with his previous article examining the rate of spread and extrapolating a mortality rate for Covid-19, Willis has once again largely discounted the effect of quarantine in his analysis. He presumes that the crew would have acted as disease vectors in the same way as unquarantined contact amongst the passengers.

      In reality, the crew would have greatly reduced the spread both for being infected themselves and spreading infection to other passengers since they were aware of the disease and followed prescribed sanitation practices. These may have been imperfect but would still have been far better than normal contact between passengers and crew.

      60

  • #
    Andrew McRae

    :-)

    You think the gold diggers are going to stop there? Nah. This is a cover story for the first phase of their operation. They’ve been talking about it for long enough, now they’re seizing the opportunity.
    Western Australia is seceding from the eastern states.
    It’s finally happening. I know it’s hard to believe, but us easterners are going to have to pay our own way on GST now.

    We will trade gold for Pacific toilet paper. Deal?

    80

  • #
    TdeF

    The British government has warned against a corona virus testing kit because of too many false positives.
    Does anyone know how this works?

    Before any antiviral or immunization is available, if there was a testing kit which worked and was cheap, it would help
    isolation enormously in schools, cafes, even families. One of the big problems is certainty.
    If you could clear a room full of people or even a family, that would be a great relief.

    40

    • #
      TdeF

      And whole communities are in lockdown in California, including San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

      40

    • #

      I do know how it works but I’ve not read up on the false positive number. Do you have a reference?

      There are two basic reasons for false positives in PCR based methods.

      1. contamination usually from previous tests.
      2. Presence of non target DNA (reverse transcribed in this case)

      the second one is difficult as making something too specific can risk false negatives if there is target variation. Also there might be oddities like remnant viral DNA in the host genome.

      61

      • #

        sorry number 2 is better written thus

        2. presence of non-viral DNA that is a close match to the viral DNA being targetted in the test

        51

        • #
          TdeF

          Sure, but how do you do any DNA tests out of a laboratory? Is there some agent sensitive to specific DNA and changes properties?

          20

          • #

            I don’t understand what you mean by “out of a laboratory”? All these tests so far (I am pretty sure) are in lab tests using real time PCR (RT-PCR). Annoyingly, since this is an RNA virus and the RT-PCR needs DNA the RNA is converted to DNA using an enzyme called reverse transcriptase. The annoying thing is the this is also called RT. You might see this whole thing called rRT-PCR or something similar.

            Serological tests can be done to look at antibodies in someone who has had the disease but these are also lab based.

            81

            • #
              TdeF

              I mean it sounded like a public user kit. What you are describing is DNA analysis by replication, fragmentation and targeted flourescence. Laboratory stuff. I was amazed to read in the Telegraph that the government was warning about what I presumed were retail home testing kits. That article has since vanished.

              40

      • #
        TdeF

        No, it was an article in the British Telegraph, since removed.

        30

  • #
    DOC

    It was suggested in the Australian yesterday that the 4 smaller states and territory – WA, SA, Tas and NT currently have
    low apparent incidence of the virus and could all benefit from shutting down their borders. How quick will they be?
    The other thing was a virologist in the USA says over 50% of those admitted to hospital, in France, are under 60yo…..

    90

    • #

      how does this virologist in the US know this about France. Do you have a reference?

      21

      • #
        DOC

        The reference is the program. I report what was said. It’s called news. No doubt you could even look it up.
        Frankly, you can take it or leave it. The gentleman was presented as a member of a US lab group.
        I believe any reasonably competent professional virology lab would be well atuned to what was
        happening in other nations and national labs in a pandemic; especially so in the US. But as I say,
        take it or leave it.

        21

  • #

    90 % of those under 50 breeze through it with barely any symptoms so keep the unlucky few in perspective. The South Koreans, who have done most testing, were surprised to find a large cohort of infected youngsters with no symptoms at all.
    I’d guess that all their physical and social interactions kept their immune systems topped up and in a state of readiness.
    There are many reports out there that tend to scare readers with low probability features of this illness. Each researcher hypes up his or her own tentative findings as a means of career advancement.

    121

    • #
      TdeF

      Are you sure? What I have read is that 20% of the under 50s (who are infected) show severe symptoms. Whether that means hospitalization was not said. And that tallies with 50% of the patients admitted (not presenting) are under 50.

      61

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        What we do know is that the Bubonic Plague was serious and wiped half of Europe off the map. Lets have some perspective please.

        40

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Yes. It was serious. Europe’s population was about 80 million at the start.

          And some argue it was the cause of the LIA.

          http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4755328.stm

          50

          • #
            TdeF

            Amazing. You wouldn’t think anyone could make this stuff up, but these are people who make their living from CO2 controlling all climates. People die from the plague. Forests come back. So the Little Ice Age.

            And I guess the felling of all the trees to make wooden ships (acres to the ship) and then to make charcoal (for reducing iron oxide to iron for cast iron) had the opposite effect. But then the trees grew back when coal was used to make coke, so coal cooled the world?

            The very idea that a few humans in a little place dramatically changed the weather of the entire planet is beyond silly. It still is.

            120

          • #
            sophocles

            TdeF @ 9.1.1.1.1 has been remarkably gentle about the BeeB, in his comment.

            I admit to having wondered a bit about the BBC over the last decade.
            It now seems that any knowledge of Science of any sort is a handicap to holding down any position, taking up any employment with that august corporation. Now they’ve added History to their academically Banned list.
            They’ve obviously moved anyone who knows anything about science or history and especially both, on, out of the Beeb.
            They need no science, not anymore.
            History? Pfaugh! That’s in the past, who can remember any of that?

            They can just make up it all up, as and when they feel like …

            I’m no longer wondering.
            Not any more.
            They’re By-our-lady Bat-crap Crazy, totally, and that’s the proof.

            30

  • #
    el gordo

    Besides locking the state gates we should also be stopping people fleeing from the cities into the regions.

    81

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Hmm….the Constitution says trade between the states shall be free.

    If trade is impeded between states, is this suggested move un-constitutional?

    30

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Life & death overrule trade !
      Bugger the constitution !
      Also a=this was done in 1919 with the Spanish Flu.

      51

    • #
      el gordo

      Trade will continue, with all necessary precaution, but general travellers are not welcome.

      30

    • #
      MJD

      There was an article about Tasmania closing it’s borders and the constitution saying trade and travel shall be free.

      30

  • #

    This has been a huge win for the globsters but I reckon they’ll only be able to pull one more of these pandemic shows before punter fatigue sets in. You can only “flood the zone” to this degree a couple of times. (Pity if a real pandemic occurs…but you get that.)

    Remember serial killers? There was a point where we couldn’t take any more and they had to shift to terror, mass shootings etc. Curiously, they tend to ignore real situations, maybe because anything wild, ie not proceeding from a drill or simulation, could have wild results. You don’t line up all the services and sober up Diane Sawyer just to send them any ol’ where.

    As effective as this has been, climate bothering will remain the pointy end of the globalist wedge. The young have been saturated in it. To them, it’s gravity, and the most blatant fibs pass without question as their only historical tool available, memory of climate, is too short. Those of us not saturated and with long memories do not have long lives ahead of us.

    Extraordinary that we trust the same fiends who brought us the climate beat-up to tell us the truth about public health or any matter which can result in mass control. How about if the do that alien invasion number they’ve had up their sleeve? What about if they “flood the zone” with aliens? On second thoughts, a few more years of conditioning might be needed for that porky.

    Got their refuse media turned on day and night? No need to worry about those silly old red team/blue team political divisions now. Rupert and “our” ABC will give you the same good steer. They share a common non-humanity, after all.

    Cough. I hardly need to ask for red, do I?

    Cough.

    106

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Listening to a Christain news service in the US, they had a news conference whereby this head epidemiologist who had basically written the book on epidemics, was basically suggesting the US would wind up with “multiple Wuhans” ( including New York ) and that a peak of infections around early May.

    He also suggested the Chinese got a lot of stuff wrong with how they managed things.

    The US arent stopping air travel, but winding back most corporate and govt travel to zero instead.

    Apparently they are down to banning gatherings over 10 people in the US.

    50

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Update – same news service reported this :

      https://meaww.com/coronavirus-pandemic-us-hospitals-overrun-patients-march-23-former-obama-aide

      “Hospitals and cities in the US could be overrun with COVID-19 cases by March 23.

      “Andy Slavitt — former Medicare, Medicaid, and Affordable Care Act head for Barack Obama — took to twitter to issue this stark warning.

      ““Last night I was on with state and local officials around the US well into the night. By March 23 many of our largest cities and hospitals are on course to be overrun with cases. Currently, experts expect over 1 million deaths in the US since the virus was not contained and we cannot even test for it. This will be recorded as a major preventable public health disaster,” Slavitt tweeted on March 14.

      “He said that the US and every country that has not taken better preventive measures like South Korea and Japan are “directly on course, lagging two weeks behind.”

      ““Every report describes this (the situation in Italy as a tsunami. And if it happens like a tsunami, in major cities, we will have 10s of thousands of more cases than we have beds & we will have 1 ventilator for every 8 people who need one. The only way to prevent Italy given our lack of testing is to socially isolate. Congress even allocates money for people to stay home. That rarely happens. But we blew our chance at containment,” he says.

      “He suggests Americans should stay socially isolated for real. “Not for you, but for everyone. And if someone minimizes this all, patiently listen & explain. People can’t be bullied,” he says

      “We can’t afford 10,000s of thousands to be hospitalized at once so we need to prevent & slow down the pace. And if this sweeps through nursing homes, it is fatal to our loved ones,” Slavitt adds.

      40

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Closing internal borders is also a strategy being applied in Europe, and it makes good sense. However, backchannel doctor’s gossip is saying that the mid-north coast in NSW has several cases, but these have not shown up in the stats, unlike those on the adjacent region, which is the North Coast.

    I would love to see all internal travel minimised, mostly be closing caravan parks and hotels/motels to out of town visitors. That way, outbreaks would be constrained.

    71

    • #
      el gordo

      It might be a good idea to close all main arteries over the Great Dividing Range, as a precautionary strategy.

      40

      • #
        TdeF

        By closing, I assume you mean passenger vehicles, buses, trains, aircraft. Most trucks change drivers anyway at the borders so the drivers can go home each night. Food and goods must keep moving. Cities cannot live without trucks. In the US, six million trucks roll every night. They are essential to life.

        80

  • #

    If you are talking about state borders then it is not “West” it is officially “Western”

    33

  • #
    TdeF

    New faster testing approved. 1440 tests a day per machine.

    30

    • #

      yeah, notice that the numbers are multiple of 96 or 384, using various tricks to cram more samples per run.

      Being Roche that is possibly a next-gen sequencing method -maybe on an Illumina patform – following the reverse-transciption (ie not rRT-PCR).

      41

      • #
        Andrew McRae

        We’re not worthy, Gee Aye. You’re going to have to dumb it down for us mortals.
        Just tell me in simple terms, how do I record the footy on the PCR?

        50

      • #
        TdeF

        Who cares? More samples per run is great. I see no down side in that except tracking and even that can be automated.

        30

  • #
    kentlfc

    So…no mention of the Brisbane hospital that says the AIDS drug, Kaletra, kills Caronavirus?

    20

  • #
    Jambo

    Slightly premature surrender in WA

    Just in from State Political editor Peter Law:

    Health Minister Roger Cook has revealed WA would soon move into its “treatment phase”, which would mean testing of people for coronavirus would stop.

    No reason at all for that to happen apart from government ineptitude. WA has sufficiently few cases to isolate, track and contact trace.

    Close the airport and start being bloody competent McGowan. Never stop testing.

    50

  • #
    yarpos

    Interesting post at WUWT by Willis E, looking at infection levels on the Diamond Princess.

    Puts yet another perspective on this whole event. It seems to have have many forms.

    40

  • #
    Stanley

    Despite all we know about social distancing and keeping gatherings to low numbers, the Astor Theatre in Mount Lawley is still going ahead with a live show tomorrow. The management says the ticket sales are being kept to 500 and therefore its OK. Also the attraction will not be signing autographs and hand flogging CD’s after the event. Big deal! How stone motherless deaf are these people to what is happening! Cancellation would be in the best interests of community health. How can they prevent a recent blow-in from ignoring their self-isolation and therefore potentially infecting others. Show some care, money doesn’t matter.

    30

    • #
      yarpos

      some people are very annoying in their non panicing behaviours

      it would be nice if everything could be managed but it wont be

      20

  • #

    It’s been raining off and on all week but our local BoM gauge refuses to award us a drop. The good news is that we were given a whopping 225mm flood on the 10th…though little or no rain fell.

    It all turns on people not observing or checking in the age of scienciness and automation. Basically, BoM can no longer do the simple task of measuring daily rainfall.

    But don’t worry. Rain may be hard…but testing for virus is fast and easy. The high occurrence of COVID-19 among famous announcers, singers, actors, sword-swallowers etc remains the only mystery.

    Red.

    110

  • #
    Phoenix44

    The thing is though, its not really a deadly virus. The death rate is perhaps 1% but that may be significantly overestimated. If large numbers of people are asymptomatic, then both the death rate and the R0 may well be much lower than thought. So far, in the West, nobody who is under 60 and healthy has died.if we stop older people getting it, we can carry on.

    I strongly suspect the virus has been circulating for much longer than we think – November or October even – and is much more prevalent than we think. Until we can test fir who has had it, we won’t know, but if that is the case, all our assumptions are wrong.

    40

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      A 20 years old Spanish soccer player died this week of COVID 19

      30

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Yes. But…….

        “Local media quoted medical experts as saying that Garcia could have survived had he not been suffering from leukaemia.”

        https://in.news.yahoo.com/covid-19-21-old-football-052855427.html

        20

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          The Leukaemia was undiagnosed !
          They discovered it when treating the COVID 19.
          Lots of folk are in that type of situation
          And it’s not an age thing
          Would you throw them all under the bus ?

          20

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            I couldn’t lift most of them to throw, Bill, given the obesity pandemic.

            The point being that his system would have been seriously weakened by the underlying disease.

            You could say the bus hit him and killed him, before it ran over him and killed him.

            Take your pick.

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        Kalm Keith

        The medical experts are saying that the cause of death was leukemia.

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    joseph

    Jo, I’m wondering what you make of this. Dr. Stephan Lanka has offered 100,000 Euros to anyone who can prove the existence of a measles virus. There was a claim made and it went into the Supreme Court in Germany where it was determined that the existence of a measles virus hadn’t been proven. Maybe it’s a 100,000 Euros that could find its way into your bank account!

    “A recent episode in Germany created a suppressed stir in the field of microbiology when microbiologist Dr. Stefan Lanka claimed he would award anyone 100,000 Euros who could prove the existence of the measles virus.
    At first it appeared he had lost. But Dr. Lanka took his loss to a higher court with more experts and the backing of two independent laboratories. He wound up not having to pay. It turned out that the “proof” provided was a composite of several different electron microscope images. And the composite involved different components of damaged cells. The composite could not be duplicated. The German Federal Supreme Court confirmed that there was not enough evidence to prove the existence of the measles virus”.

    Surely it must be easy enough to prove. ?

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    • #

      Joseph, I think they keep the really cool virus testers in the same special kits they have for instantly identifying Al-Bagdhadi every time they kill him. Science is amazing, but you need the top shelf gear sometimes.

      Sarcing off, I see where the Truthstream couple have been feeling like I feel: https://tinyurl.com/vld6xwn

      Humanity is being humiliated and the kakistocracy are loving it. Yet when I check out those beastly characters babbling in corporatese at Event 201 (especially the Gates representative who has replicated the tone and gestures of his dear leader) I know that theirs is the real humiliation.

      People are impulsive, weak and impressionable, and that includes me, but we are not the degraded ones. Humanity is good. Those who engineer these situations only degrade themselves in the end.

      I won’t ask for red.

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    Antoine D’Arche

    Jo just keep doing what you’re doing, climate change hasn’t gone anywhere and will be there when this corona stuff is over

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    • #
      Deano

      Agreed. And there are quite a few parallels between the COVID19 situation and general climate change discourse. The most obvious is the huge difference of opinion between many scientists. As with climate change, the ones who seem to have the Government’s ear aren’t making much sense.

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  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Borders were closed during the Spanish flu, including that its WA, so there is a precedent.

    But…

    We need more much much more.

    We need t guarantee essential services, and we need to do it yesterday

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      You raise a fair point – the disruption caused by this virus is potentially more from ham fisted govt than the virus.

      We are at probably greater risk if power, water, gas or telecoms goes down.

      Im happy to volunteer to keep any utility running in the electrical engineering area.

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        I’ll also volunteer, my electrical experience is in project management so can help in the back office. I can drive, and have a car, so I’ll also volunteer as a driver.

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  • #
    TedM

    After reading some of the preceding comments I can only conclude that one of the first conditions that we need to address is give-up-itis. The fact is that with the appropriate level of determination, application, and penalties for non compliance, isolation of WA is possible.

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    • #
      TdeF

      It’s really a why not? There are no day trippers, surely. Given that Perth is more isolated than any other city on the planet, it could also be a why bother?

      That’s the problem, small towns around Australia are a why bother and the big cities of Melbourne and Sydney with half Australia’s population are how do you do it?

      I am surprised that the really big cities of New York and London and Tokyo and Paris and Rome are not rampant with corona virus already. Maybe they are, but enough time has passed for that to be evident. Maybe the dramatically reduced air travel was not too late. Everything I read is about some group back from a skiing trip or voyage or holiday generally. Or a visiting person from Northern Italy or China. We are still not far from the traceable stage. Let’s keep it that way.

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  • #
    StephenP

    Very interesting, and gives rise to a number of basic questions.

    Does the test look for the actual virus or the antibodies produced.

    If one has had the virus and recovered, how can you tell that from someone actually ill with the virus.

    How long does the virus stay viable on various surfaces?
    Eg: stainless steel, plastic, other metals, wood, wool, fabrics etc?

    Back in the early 2000s when we had the bad foot and mouth outbreak in the UK IIRC I was told by a ministry vet that as viruses had a surface layer of fat that a detergent was as good as some of the mainstream disinfectants in killing them by breaking down the surface layer.
    Is that correct?
    If it is then presumably washing clothes with detergent and wiping surfaces down with washing up liquid would be effective.

    I apologise if these questions seem too simple, but I have not found it easy to get the answers.

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    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      The virus’s needs to be subjected to travel bans so that the detergent can be fully effective..sorry, i too apologise for my lack of enlightenment on such matters.

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  • #
    DOC

    Pertaining to the question of closing WA borders, the WA President of the AMA, DR Miller was
    interviewed at lunchtime (WA) on Sky. The suggestion seemed to be based on two things’
    1) The numbers known to be infected in WA today is 28. The bulk of those were returned overseas travellers.
    2) The main source of further infections would be from the east coast states (presumed local spread controllable)
    As has been said, (or I’m not aware if the FIFO at the mines has been cut back)the external sources not from
    Australia in FIFO could neutralise the quarantine of the State although the mines are pretty tightly controlled.
    However, the strongest point he tried to make was that the medical services were already flat out even at this stage
    and would be over-run if the border stayed open because new cases would be coming from the higher affected eastcoast.

    It would seem school closures are something of a bouncing ball where it is said the adults infect the kids rather
    than the other way round. Hence they are better at school than not. But the school closure argument is also based on
    the case that schooling is something of a baby sitting exercise in-so-far as if the kids are home a parent has to be
    home, and that would drain the medical workforce – and probably a lot of other businesses as well.

    Its a bit of a catch 22 play between the rise in infections and the availability of the workforce to handle it.
    Coldly, COVID-19 extermination or control must come first. But how does one handle it but decimate the required
    workforce to do it? It’s a medical and political nightmare that no doubt will have to be confronted somehow.

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    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Something wrong here:

      1) The numbers known to be infected in WA today is 28.

      And:

      …the medical services were already flat out even at this stage…

      Hello?

      28 cases and the medical services are flat out.

      Sheez! I hope we don’t get up to 30 then.

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      • #
        DOC

        The point of what I wrote was exactly that.

        I think maybe the State is bit caught out on preparation – probably similar to the others. The interview was
        a bit mixed as to why the request was being made. I don’t think epidemiology is a strong point in training
        to be anything else but an epidemiologist, in medicine. In my time it was a postgraduate specialty.

        There is a basis for closure according to what I read here, exactly because currently those numbers are so low, the position ideal to quarantine now and not later. The rest of the interview looked like needlessly, not well thought out, padding, even while there is an epidemologically legitimate position to request closure. Isn’t that exactly what Jo has been suggesting for the national response? Go early and go hard! It was simply unfortunate selection of interviewee, without being hypercritical. Again, epidemiology is a highly specialised and specific field and generally not part of a practicing doctor’s forte.

        I believe the Premier has backed down anyway.

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      • #
        DOC

        ps. You make a mistake about looking at small numbers and the workload of major hospital staff.
        That workload has nothing to do with the 28. Perhaps you haven’t caught up with waiting lists and
        ambulance line ups at emergency centres. These places are already permanently full with cancellations
        at the last minute of people on lists for 18months common. You seem to think its a breeze adding an epidemic
        on that system. Hate to tell you. To handle that epidemic involves basically shutting down anything
        elective so there are beds available for the sick. Intensive care units are exactly that. Intensive and
        generally running close to full capacity. You get sick enough and you generally take another’s bed.

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    • #
      Roger Knights

      “But how does one handle it but decimate the required workforce to do it?”

      Joshua Gans on Medium suggests conscripting and training college students.

      “A War Footing: Surfing the Curve”
      https://medium.com/swlh/a-war-footing-surfing-the-curve-f5ffe6134e37

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  • #
    LightningCamel

    An interesting take on Wuhan virus progression on the Diamond Princess by Willis Eschenbach, I think I have seen someone else mention this recently but just in case here is the link.

    He also mentions a site worth a look. It provides a tool where you can manipulate all sorts of epidemiological parameters and their effect on disease progression. Here.

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  • #
    Amos E. Stone

    Jo said:
    “I seem to have the uncanny ability to predict what frontline experts will recommend days in advance.”

    … and something about our UK Prime Minister’s Very Stupid Plan. Got that right.

    Well, it took an professor of mathematical biology to point out the numbers I did in my head yesterday, but at least he seems to have listened. 70% of a 68M population times 1% mortality is a Very Big Number!

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-research/sobering-covid-19-study-prompted-britain-to-toughen-its-approach-idUKKBN2141EI

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    cedarhill

    Grab some tea or coffee, go read this on WattsUpWithThat:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/

    A look at the numbers from the cruise ship Diamond Princess.

    Interesting because it’s as close as anyone will ever get to a clinical trial.

    Folks would be well advised to stop smoking – and that includes tobacco, marijuana, and corn leaves, etc.

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    • #
      Analitik

      As I replied to comment #29 on the same subject, already linked in comment #5.
      I’ve posted my criticisms there, too.

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    • #
      Roger Knights

      “Folks would be well advised to stop smoking”

      How about vaping?: (quoted comments follow)
      ———-

      lafe.long, March.16.2020 at 3:50 pm
      “The Protection of Mice against Infection with Air-borne Influenza Virus by Means of Propylene Glycol Vapor.”

      They have now extended their observations to the effect of propylene glycol vapour on influenza virus. Vapour was employed instead of an aerosol because it has been found that the glycols are much more active in this form, very much smaller amounts being required for effective air sterilization.
      https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/19422701086

      Preliminary experiments were made to determine the amount of atomized virus suspension required to produce regular infection of mice followed by extensive lung consolidation and death within 4 to 10 days. Mice were then exposed to this lethal concentration of virus in a chamber into which propylene glycol vapour had been introduced; they regularly failed to contract the infection.

      Diane Reynolds (Paul.)
      March.16.2020 at 4:00 pm
      So… vaping protects you from virus infection?

      lafe.long, March.16.2020 at 4:12 pm
      According to this study, at least for mice, it would appear so.

      Thirty-two control mice all died in 6-10 days with extensive lung consolidation, whereas 32 mice exposed in the glycol chamber all remained well and showed normal lungs when killed on the 8th day.

      Roger Knights, March.16.2020 at 7:48 pm
      “So… vaping protects you from virus infection?”

      I hope “Are You a Vaper?” gets added to questionnaires given to Covid-19 test-takers and hospitalizations. And that its results indicate a strong prophylactic property. And that the government is then forced to encourage the purchase of e-cigarettes and refills by compensating buyers for their costs. A scene I’d like to see.
      https://reason.com/2020/03/16/the-cdcs-shift-from-vaping-to-covid-19-highlights-the-crucial-differences-between-real-and-metaphorical-epidemics/#comment-8168762
      ————-

      Maybe a machine could do the vaporizing, in hospital rooms, say.

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  • #
    Serge Wright

    As a side note, some doctors in China that were treating sick people in Wuhan were noticing that it was difficult to find any existing drugs to reduce severity in badly affected patients, including anti-virals used to treat the flu, but what did seem to make a difference was vitamin C in high doses above 4G per day. My own suggestion is D3 suppliments and 1-2 grams of vitamin C per day now when healthy, which will build up your stores of these vitamins and also build healthy white blood cells and if you become infected take up to 1G of C per hour (1 large pill per hour) until the symptoms subside, which might be a few days and then stay on the highest dose you can tolerate without giving yourself a case of the runs, which means you need to reduce the dosage down. The reason for the high dose is that your body can metabolise 1G per hour when you have a severe viral infection, which is used in the production of new white cells and maintaining the health of existing cells fighting the virus.

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    Ian Hill

    I received a six page newsletter today from my State postie MP Carolyn Power (Liberal Member for Elder) telling us it’s been a big year and listing all her achievements. She uses the words “deliver or delivering” NINE times. The amazing thing is, there is NOT ONE WORD about the current COVID-19 crisis and I find that disgusting, that a politician can just ignore the biggest threat to our lives since World War 2.

    I wonder if anyone else is receiving similar garbage from their MPs?

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  • #
    john

    This bloke does a good job summing up the reasons for the Covid-19 hysteria: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=yn074EB5NNY&feature=emb_logo

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    • #
      mikewaite

      John, thank you for finding that. A very sober assessment that debunks the alarmism. The bandwagon surrounding the corona virus outbreak
      is tantalisingly similar to that around climate alarmism, but concentrated into just a few weeks rather than decades. For that reason
      the effect on economies and people’s freedom is all the greater. We are already hearing of major firms giving up in UK, and on the BBC
      they are claiming that only a major nationalisation programmme will prevent enormous loss of jobs as firms collapse from the loss of housebound customers.

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  • #
    Analitik

    I’ve noticed at least one down-vote for pretty much each of Gee Aye and Peter Fizroy’s comments in these Covid-19 threads. Whoever is doing this appears to be doing so out of sheer spite for their positions on Climate Change as the comments on this subject by these 2 CAGW advocates appear reasonable and often informative to me.

    Whoever is doing the down-voting should at least provide the courtesy of why if they have a legitimate disagreement with them. Otherwise, it’s behaviour that I don’t find worthy of this site

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    Jambo

    McGowan refused the doctors’ advice and WA will remain a welcoming destination for the infected that want to spread it. Hope none of them were Irish because the bars were heading tonight.

    If a health minister states, as ours did, that a certain stage we stop testing then he needs to find another job.

    South Korea set the benchmark, test as many people as you can, literally. Sure, triage it and test those with the criteria first but if you run out of them and still have tests and staff, test anybody with a cough.

    As many tests as we can, as much data as we can get, shut the airport, hospital quarantine for the infected, get off the curve.

    Man up McGowan. The infections and deaths caused by those that land at Perth from tomorrow onwards are your and yours alone.

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  • #
    Red Edward

    Today’s US numbers from John Hopkins –

    Infected 4661
    Expired 85

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  • #
    truth

    Has this been reported here amidst the 24/7 information…

    ….that WHO and ‘leading French health officials warned against using nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) against the COVID-19 coronavirus disease. This group of pharmaceuticals includes ibuprofen, aspirin and other drugs.’?

    The British Chief Medical Officer just warned a group of UK Ministers about it too..on SKY News UK….especially for people with high blood pressure or diabetes…who think they might have Corona virus and self-medicate.

    https://www.dailysabah.com/life/health/who-reiterates-call-for-coronavirus-patients-not-to-take-ibuprofen

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  • #

    A skeptical voice: “The economic and otherwise societal losses will be exponentially larger than the damages to the public health. I would even argue that that the economic damages that have already taken place are larger than even the worst case scenario damages to health and lives that could materialize in a hypothetical future.”

    https://motls.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-enthusiasm-with-which-west-commits.html

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  • #

    take your D, Zn, and Se. :- )

    Vitamin D, Zinc and Selenium? Do these molecules help combat viruses?

    10