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China — only 20% of the economy working — the cost of inviting a virus to dinner

It’s too expensive to close borders, they say, but who can afford to import this virus?

Should we stop holidays and conferences, or most of the economy?

The monthly PMI figures show that in February about four fifths of China’s economy was shut down. Locking people in apartments and hospitals being not very productive. Strangely, all the economists watching the mainstream news and official Chinese figures did not expect this. They were shocked when the monthly PMI result was announced. The drop from 50 to 35 was more than twice as bad as the economists expected.

China PMI horror show to trigger Q1 downgrades

Umesh Desai, Asia Times

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index in February plunged to 35.7 from 50 in January. This is the lowest reading since January 2005 when it was first released and even lower than November 2008’s figure of 38.8 during the Global Financial Crisis.

The market had expected a reading of around 46, according to a Reuters poll and this shocking data had analysts recalibrating their numbers.

The ANZ economists said this implied the utilization of only a fifth of the country’s full economic capacity, much lower than the high numbers claimed by authorities.

Chinese pollution February 2020, Coronavirus. Economic Activity.

Satellites show nitrogen dioxide emission over China: NASA

Junk journalists copied junk news from China and they all fooled the economists

China purchasing indexes sink to record lows as coronavirus epidemic hits economy

Rachel Koning Beals, MarketWatch, Feb 29

The February result came in far below the median forecast of 43 by economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal.

Saturday’s results show a “relatively large impact” from the epidemic, Zhao Qinghe, an analyst with the statistics bureau, said in a statement accompanying the data release, according to the Wall Street Journal. March’s readings should improve because of authorities’ efforts to help companies, especially manufacturing firms, resume production, he said.

“The situation on the ground [in China] is materially worse than what has come out in the media,” Leland Miller, CEO of the China Beige Book, a research firm that collects Chinese company viewpoints, told MarketWatch in an interview.

Meanwhile as Chinese submarines map out the underwater routes Australian subs use David Archibald points out what a strategic disaster China’s silence and lies over Coronavirus have been. One benefit of coronavirus may be President Xi’s foreign policy.

David Archibald: Give the Corona-virus the Nobel Peace Prize

American Thinker

Xi wants to be emperor of the whole world and can see a path to achieving that.  But he has kicked a couple of own goals…

Xi’s first own goal was to suppress privately owned business activity in favor of state-owned companies. Workers in state-owned companies have about a third of the productivity of those in businesses run by their private owners….

His [President Xi's]  second own goal was to delay the news of the coronavirus until after the trade deal was signed with the United States.  Xi did not want to show any sign of weakness while the deal was being negotiated.  China’s relative position had been deteriorating since 2015, when its share of world exports peaked at about 15%.  Trump wanted a trade deal because he would like China to remain stable through the election cycle.  The language of the trade deal included a lot of “China shall,” indicating that China needed the deal more than Trump did.  We infer that the anti-China efforts will be ramped up again after the election.

The first coronavirus case was reported on December 1, 2019, and the trade deal was signed on January 15, 2020.  Wuhan was put under quarantine lockdown eight days later on January 23.  In the meantime, some five million people left Wuhan, as estimated by Wuhan’s mayor, a case of closing the stable door after the horse had bolted.  So, as a result of waiting for the trade deal to be signed before acting, Xi changed a controllable outbreak into an out-of-control epidemic.

The Chicoms are pathological liars, as they regard anyone who is not in a more powerful position in the Chinese Communist Party with contempt, thus they reported daily deaths as a percentage of cases as 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.1% until they gave up lying about it.  But the hit to China’s economy is real and huge.  Coal consumption is half of what it should be at this point after the end of the lunar new year holidays.  Air pollution, as measured by satellites, is down 20% to 50%.

China’s ability to threaten its neighbors will be much weakened as its government revenues crater.  There is a good case for nominating the coronavirus for the Nobel Peace Prize.  The humble virus has certainly done far more for world peace than Greta Thunberg, the current frontrunner.

The PLA can’t attack anyone until there is a vaccine for the coronavirus.  It’s been reported that the PLA pulled out of Wuhan after 3,000 of its troops became sick.  Collecting dead bodies is now on a bounty system, similar to how bodies were collected in Europe during the plague.

Another beautiful outcome from the coronavirus is that it should, in a rational world, eliminate China from the world’s supply chains.  It might be good for a couple of million jobs in the United States alone.

 

Reuters, meanwhile, are reporting that things are picking up in China

Apparently Chinese official data shows there are more lights and more people driving around and we all know the Chinese government would never make that sort of thing up.

More traffic, night lights show China’s factories restart as new virus cases drop

BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Nearly 300 million people have gone back to work in China since the Lunar New Year break as more companies restart business and coronavirus travel restrictions ease, although many small firms are still struggling to find enough workers to run plants.

 Coal consumption is making a slight recovery.

Chinese coal consumption data

Chinese coal consumption data

We hope things are improving for the people, if not for President Xi.

For lots of reasons it will probably not be this catastrophic for our economy. But nor would stopping the flights.

Corona-virus-china-electricity

Source: Chinese State Grid Corp. (Buyer beware).

On the news tonight various officials told us that now “we can no longer stop the virus coming into the country”. It was some kind of self-soothing abject nonsense to calm themselves down. What they meant to say was that we can no longer stop the virus running amok inside our country (because we didn’t stop flights from Iran a week ago).

Obviously we could still block flights tomorrow and stop the virus coming in. And given that we may run out of hospital beds in weeks, it still seems sensible to stop potential virus-shedding people from romping through our cafes and shops. The main aim now, surely, is to delay the peak til after winter. Adding random virus generators doesn’t seem like a good way to reduce the use of ICU beds, even though there will come a point where there will be so much virus in Australia that bringing in a few more won’t matter. But when a single superspreading tourist can double the national toll, we’re not there yet.

Right now, there may be people who live in Indonesia, Africa, or anywhere, noticing that people are getting sick all around them. While the Australian government is waiting for the WHO to tell them what to do,  these same potential carriers are thinking of boarding a plane to come to Australia. (Same for the US and UK, NZ and Canada obviously).

The mayor said that’s exactly what five million in Wuhan did. Left before the lockdown.

Preparing is quite good advice,
With lentils, beans, nuts and rice,
But if COVID should spread,
Best take to your bed,
And hope that your stocks will suffice.

–Ruairi

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.5/10 (64 votes cast)
China -- only 20% of the economy working -- the cost of inviting a virus to dinner, 9.5 out of 10 based on 64 ratings

172 comments to China — only 20% of the economy working — the cost of inviting a virus to dinner

  • #
    Yonniestone

    China only 20% of their economy working, now they know how it’d feel if they took the UN emission reductions seriously and let them dictate what they can and cannot use ……………………………. hang on that describes Australia and any country that has proven untapped resources that’d last 500+ years but is stupid enough to become a UN stooge.

    411

  • #
    pattoh

    By the time this gets trough to the quarterly RBA Balance of Payments graph; Australians will probably have already found their “shopping experience” is some what less than worth sharing on social media.

    I wonder if by this time next year there will be any national leaders who are genuinely though or spoken of in terms of:-
    “Commeth the hour, commeth the man”.

    Will awareness, judgement & understanding be seen, known & communicated?

    I am certain some of the technocrats & wanna be dictators are licking their lips [ behind their "masks"].

    120

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      At this stage, they are all pretty-well brain dead.

      This time next year……?

      30

    • #
      Bulldust

      And the RBA drops rates to 0.50%, because that is going to make a difference … The CPI is sitting at 1.8% so we effectively have negative real official interest at ~1.3%.

      https://www.rba.gov.au/

      Everyone going to run out and spend that money they will save on mortgage payments (assuming banks pass it on)? Yeah, thought not … so who is the rate cut really for?

      30

    • #
      Mal

      The media controls the message these days
      The msm and ABC are only propaganda units for the extreme left and eco fascists.
      How will any leader in Australia be able to communicate through this propaganda wall

      60

      • #
        Bulldust

        You need a BoJo or Trump to break through the propaganda. We don’t have one of those. The closest we have is Pauline, because she doesn’t mind standing on principal, regardless of where it takes her. Take her defense of Bettina Arndt recently, for instance. The limp Libs all buckled when intimidated by the feminists.

        30

        • #
          Bulldust

          I should have added… you don’t have to agree with what Bettina Arndt did, but be aware that she wasn’t even stating her own words, but a police man’s, and what she said was demonstrably true. And yet the lynch mob came for her. Free speech is dying in Oz.

          20

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    We banned travel from China and Iran, but not Italy and South Korea. Dies anyone else see political decisions overriding medical science here? Now we have the first cases of internal person to person transmission, and the chief medical officer has admitted defeat.

    We had a chance, slim as it was, and we blew it.

    [EDited by customer request.] ED

    105

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Blown by the CMO Murphy and his minister Hunt.
      Between them they share the responsibility for this stuff up !
      So once again I says it’s time they both were
      Dismissed
      Given the boot
      Pissed off to some far away location such as Iran !

      20

    • #
      John M

      Peter,
      The general public does not ban anything.

      The idea travel bans doesn’t include diplomatic and military travel.

      The UN as well as every country has diplomatic freedom to travel freely.

      What policies are they using?

      10

    • #
      John M

      Peter,
      The general public does not ban anything.

      The idea travel bans doesn’t include diplomatic and military travel.

      The UN as well as every country has diplomatic freedom to travel freely.

      What policies are they using?

      00

      • #
        yarpos

        wifes girlfriend is going to Egypt at the end of the week

        Egypt under terrorism state of emergency for a year or more – red flag number 1
        Two women travelling alone – red flag number 2
        Into teeth of corona outbreak – red flag number 3
        Government likely to ban further countries and quarantine changes on a daily basis – red flag number 4

        Off they go , oblivious numpties

        10

  • #
    PeterS

    We’ve already have begun the decimation of our economy decades ago, thanks to our pathetically weak minded and useless politicians backed up by a MSM and public education system that’s hell bent on destroying our way of life using propaganda that surpasses the propaganda machine of the old Soviet Russian empire in many ways. So as a result of the weakening of our economy to the point of running on just fumes and with historically low interest rates (negative in some countries) it wouldn’t take much to tip us over. The Corona virus might end up being the last straw that breaks the camel’s back but I doubt it. Time will tell but I suspect we will bounce back only to set the scene for the real crash that’s yet to come, which will be the mother of all crashes. Whether I’m right or wrong is moot since either way we are “dead meat” as an economy and as a society.

    100

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      My hope is the china problems will reboot the manufacturing sector.

      If pollies who are in the UNs pocket try an destroy our way of life, if Australians try and take them to task, watch for them to squeal and amazingly UN “peacekeeping”/Praetorian Guard foreign troops turn up……

      What if the whole point of the virus wasnt to actually cause physical damage, but cripple the econmy so the UN flunkies appeal to the UN to step in, institute mart**l law, in the process crushing democracy and instituting Socialism to “save us”?

      31

      • #
        PeterS

        The fact is the financial system is running on fumes and a reset is overdue. It might not happen though for a long while so meanwhile we should take the window of opportunity and rebuild our industries. That requires relatively cheap, reliable and sustainable base load power. That means coal and nuclear. The NWO scenario will eventually play out but let’s not get ahead of ourselves as some are already doing. Let’s buy some time to prepare for it as best we can, if not as a nation at least on an individual basis.

        40

        • #
          PeterS

          Of course I was dreaming. I don’t expect our politicians to do anything productive in that sense. So it comes down to preparing yourself on an individual basis. The best time to start is now.

          50

  • #
    joseph

    What do you think of the idea that this crisis will be, is being, used to install a world wide digital financial system?

    73

    • #
      Emvironment Skeptic

      It is blindingly obvious at least to me that more and more people will die from not having an income, than those dying from the virus itself hand over fist.

      When the numbers are all tallied up, the main and non mainstream media will attribute those numbers to the virus, and not malnutrition etc.

      ‘Do no harm’

      53

      • #

        But environmental skeptic, that’s my point. Small quarantines now may prevent mass panic and self-isolation later.
        Small quarantines = stop the flights. (People think this is big but only because they don’t see the larger quarantine coming.)

        Big Quarantine = people locked in homes — note that in China the government is ordering people back to work in many regions — they are staying home out of fear. And given the extra hospitals Wuhan built, it’s not exactly irrational.

        120

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Perhaps we’ll next be seeing the PLA catching the workers in nets and busing them back to the factories, then welding the gates shut.

          Somewhat similar to what they’ve done with the Uighers.

          Work you peasants or else. We’ve got contracts to meet.

          Ah. The joys of a Communist system.

          40

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            The problem with quarantines is that they all have degrees of intensity. Medical brute force to crush the spread of any virus can only be highly temporary IMO.

            Plugging of new leaks and outbreaks might make a mockery of any prior effort to contain it, no matter how medically draconian.

            On the other hand, there are other ways of looking at this virus thing, and one that caught my attention was on Robert Felix’s site.
            https://www.iceagenow.info/coronavirus-concerns-way-overblown/
            “Coronavirus concerns way overblown
            “Robert W. Felix

            “When I first heard about the coronavirus, Covid-19, and learned that Chinese authorities had locked down the entire city of Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, I thought things must be pretty desperate.

            However, even though I don’t trust the numbers coming out of the Chinese Communist government, comments from some of my readers have helped put the whole thing in perspective for me.

            One of the first such comments came from Northern Ireland:

            “Don’t Panic!” advised reader ………”

            10

            • #
              yarpos

              depending how things pan out , I think we may make a decision to self quarantine for a month or so at some stage. Seems to me you either take control of things or let things happen to you. Bit like life really.

              10

    • #
      PeterS

      It’s possible but if it’s not the case it will end that way for another reason. The central banks must know they are on borrowed time (no pun intended). They have cut interests rates to almost zero in some places and even below zero in others. They have run out of ammunition. Next stop is to devalue all fiat currencies to almost worthless value and then replace them with a world currency possibly based on a new crypto currency and making all existing ones illegal. It might not happen though until the real crash happens, perhaps in say 10-15 years, possibly sooner. I doubt very much it’s now but of course I could be wrong. Time will tell of course. Anyone who says they know for sure when it will happen is either a liar or a true prophet of God.

      21

      • #
        AP

        I went to do my weekly grocery run today and the supermarket was sold out of toilet paper, pasta and tinned beans, spaghetti etc.

        The global run on toilet paper has the psychological hallmarks of a bank run, except the deposits are different :)

        Will we see the point in time when toilet paper is more valuable than our paper plastic currency? It certainly has more intrinsic value.

        20

      • #
        sophocles

        October 2026 … a re-echo of the 2008 crash,

        00

  • #
    RickWill

    Iron ore price started to fall last Wednesday. It was down 5% by close on Friday. Probably will not see the volume data till the end of the quarter but it should be way down based on electricity being down. China produces about 50% of the world steel so any reduction in Chinese output will have global impact.

    60

  • #
    Richard C (NZ)

    This fall in economic activity, which may just be the start globally (3 yrs? 5 yrs), will mean a radical fall in fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

    But what if atmospheric CO2 levels continue to rise unabated?

    Climate science will have some explaining to do. Previously this question was studiously avoided after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when FF emissions took a dip but atmospheric levels exhibited no change:

    FF CO2 Emissions https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2d/Global_Warming_Observed_CO2_Emissions_from_fossil_fuel_burning_vs_IPCC_scenarios.svg

    Atmospheric CO2 levels
    https://e360.yale.edu/assets/site/mlo_full_record-copy_trimmed1500.png

    That was minor compared to what biggest emitter China is experiencing now. And yes, oil tankers are parked up again in SE Asia, just as in the GFC, because China’s independent refiners have “slashed operations”.

    I don’t think climate science will be able to avoid the question this time. Although given the potential death toll from this real crisis (think Spanish Flu), pointing to an issue in an imaginary crisis may be a little crass I admit.

    80

    • #
      yarpos

      We already know we are a minor contributor to total CO2, so it really isnt new news. The world choses to ignore so its fair to say it will be again. Its easy to defuse through the waving of hands and talking about delay factors, volcanoes n stuff. As long as you can bluff through a news cycle you can go back to banging on about CO2.

      60

    • #
      el gordo

      Good argument Richard, we should see a CO2 dip if the virus continues to impact like a stadium wave.

      Do you have access to a CO2 graph from Law Dome, 1960 to the present? I’ve looked but no luck.

      50

      • #
        Richard C (NZ)

        Historical CO2 Records from the Law Dome DE08, DE08-2, and DSS Ice Cores
        https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/trends/co2/lawdome.html

        Hotlinks at top to Graphics (time series) and Data.

        1006 A.D.-1978 A.D. I don’t think there has been time for the upper level (firn) to compress for a series past 1978 but could be wrong about this.

        40

        • #
          el gordo

          Thanks for that link, its the same as Mauna Loa, so we’ll have to accept that CO2 is in abundance.

          40

      • #
        Chad

        Maybe not,.
        Industry emissions are not the major part of fossil fuel use.
        Electricity use for public consumption, and transport emissions far outweigh industry

        20

        • #
          Richard C (NZ)

          Chad

          >”Electricity use for public consumption, and transport emissions far outweigh industry”

          No and yes (perhaps). Let’s look at China’s electricity production and use by sector first in this comment then emissions by sector in a following comment.

          According to Reuters, coal accounted for 59% of China’s overall energy consumption in 2018.

          According to Wikipedia, electricity generation by source has coal accounting for 53.1% in 2018.

          But daily coal consumption by major electricity producers plummeted after Chinese new year in 2020 (see Exhibit 3):

          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/it-begins-chinese-business-conditions-crash-most-record

          And according to China Energy Portal (GWh 2018):

          Basic electric power statistics

          Total power consumption
          6,900,200
          Industrial power consumption 5,931,000
          Primary industry
          74,600
          Secondary industry
          4,773,300
          —Of which: industry
          4,695,400
          Tertiary industry
          1,083,100

          Residential electricity consumption 969,200
          Urban residents 553,100
          Rural residents 416,200

          https://chinaenergyportal.org/en/2018-detailed-electricity-statistics-update-of-dec-2019/

          Primary sector – extraction of raw materials – mining, fishing and agriculture. Secondary / manufacturing sector – concerned with producing finished goods, e.g. factories making toys, cars, food, and clothes. Service / ‘tertiary’ sector – concerned with offering intangible goods and services to consumers.

          Industry accounted for 85.95% of China’s total electricity consumption in 2018. Public consumption was minor. So a shut down of industry guts electricity consumption and therefore coal for electricity production too.

          40

        • #
          Richard C (NZ)

          Chad

          >”…transport emissions far outweigh industry”

          Not in China.

          China CO2 Emissions [2016]
          Power Industry 41.3%
          Other Industrial Combustion 30.2%
          Transport 7.4%

          https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/china-co2-emissions/

          20

        • #
          yarpos

          see how easy it is to distract and explain away?

          10

    • #
      Meglort

      For the morons that believe in CAGW, no fact, science, math or logic will sway them from their ideology which has been shown for decades to be simply false.

      But just like the WHO failing to call the nCoV a pandemic due to the financial arbitrage and hedging against such an eventuality and this forcing payments to developing nations, do not underestimate the global vested interests in continuing the hoax and CAGW money grab.

      It is all just about greed, control and propaganda deployment.
      Once this blows over, I doubt anything will change.

      100

  • #
    William Astley

    There is a ‘potential’ breakthrough, a cure for all coronavirus.

    The Israelis have been working on a general weakness that all coronaviruses have. A backdoor so to speak to the virus.

    The Israelis coronaviruses treatment would if it is successful provide a person with complete immunity to all coronaviruses.

    If I remember correctly, the Israelis have started advanced tests of their new approach.

    I notice Trump is now talking about a vaccination for COVID-19 and a potential ‘cure’.

    I would assume Trump is talking about the Israelis breakthrough.

    80

  • #

    There is lots here to comment on. I had to have a look at the whole private vs public output in China. The RBA notes that state owned industry does indeed have a much lower productivity that the privately owned though this is probably not an especially important factor given that state owned industry accounts for only 20% of production potential and workers etc. So suppressing the private industries was actually a huge thing to have done.

    50

    • #
      el gordo

      Yeah, but as you know the free enterprise system has the potential to recover more quickly.

      63

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      With an export focussed economy, the drop may not impact China’s population as much as international trade. See this from the reserve bank

      72

      • #
        yarpos

        The real impact will be loss of trust and faith in China as a reliable supplier

        I cant imagine any manager in a multi national (except maybe Tesla) contemplating dependence on China as a supplier. If already entrenched I would be looking to diversify. They have not handled this well at the start, and have acted deceitfully.

        10

  • #
    Rosco

    Perhaps China could get everyone back to work retrofitting effective smoke stack emission controls as most western economies did decades ago to reduce smoke, particulates and other pollutants from their emissions whilst a lot of places are shut down ?

    Bet they don’t bother although they should.

    61

  • #
    Salome

    The coronavirus is deadliest for old men. Last night on the radio I heard young Iranians singing a song that wished that the local politicians would all catch it–hope that includes the mullahs, who in any event appear to be doing their best not to avoid it. What about Mr Xi and the CCP leadership? Why haven’t they all caught it?

    50

  • #
    Richard Jenkins

    It seems to me that the coronavirus actually started in Iran and China was first to investigate. MSM (The Left) are exaggerating the seriosness to create money crisis. Blame Trump. It seems that there are many mild cases
    undetected. If mld cases are found and included this may prove to be just like the flu and a scam to disrupt. Investigate and possibly stop the panic.

    41

    • #
      David A

      There are many mild cases, likely undetected. That retracts zero from the reality of this, as it only increases the R.0. So if the serious – critical hospitalization rate falls from 20 percent to 15 percent, that does not mean one less person in the hospital, it just means MORE people get infected. Besides, once hospitals are overwhelmed, then in areas like China, and perhaps all over, there are many deaths not assigned to this virus.
      This is NOTHING like the flu.

      Dr. Matt McCarthy – Author of “Superbugs” – Suggests Coronavirus Numbers from Korea Show Mortality Rate Closer to Flu Rather Than Something Worse (VIDEO)
      https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/dr-matt-mccarthy-author-of-superbugs-suggests-coronavirus-numbers-from-korea-suggest-mortality-rate-close-to-flu-rather-than-something-worse-video

      “He says it is 2X to 4X the death rate of the flu.

      So call it 4 tenths of one percent, or 4 deaths per thousand.

      South Korea has 4,812 confirmed cases and 28 dead, so yes, by the absurdity of his claim, about 5.7 times worse then the flu.
      However as mentioned flu CFR is based on prior years of total infected, total dead, and total CURED. So how many S.K. cases are cured? The answer is, 30!!

      https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/ind 800ex.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

      So, via the exact same math used for the flu, fatal as a percentage of cured, South Korea has a CFR of, wait for it, 93 percent, or 930 times worse then the flu. I expect the CFR rate will end up at between 5 and 7 if hospitals are overwhelmed. In many areas that “if” is a when. This is 50 to 70 times worse then the flu. Now add in more patients due to an R naught at least double the flu. And yet more patients due to almost zero immunity, unlike the flu.

      20

  • #
    joseph

    This is a few paragraphs from a piece by James Corbett. ‘Coronavirus: the “cures” will be worse than the disease’

    “Given that the mass quarantines have started in China, a.k.a. the most important link in the global just-in-time supply chain, we are going to see significant difficulties for many manufacturers producing basic consumer goods in the very near future.  Smartphones. Cars. Even, in a perverse bit of irony, medical supplies. So much of the global economy that depends on Chinese manufacturing is already experiencing shutdowns and shortages. And this is only the razor thin edge of what promises to be a gigantic wedge.

    Here’s the worst part: These disruptions are already baked into the cake. Even if everyone on the planet was suddenly cured of their disease overnight and all quarantines were lifted, the effects of these last few weeks of lockdowns and closures would still continue to ripple their way through the global economy for months. But as the fear and hype spreads from continent to continent and the mass disruptions expand, these effects will get worse and worse.

    I would expand on this point, but I have a feeling this is going to become a dominant and recurring topic of review in these editorials in the future. Let me just say this for now: Regardless of whether coronavirus is natural or manmade or even whether it exists at all, the economic effects of this event are going to be very real and very profound. Given that I write for the International Forecaster and have been documenting the Ponzi scheme that is the modern global economy for over a decade now, I’m often asked when the scam will collapse and the long-predicted global financial crisis will hit. Well, it’s very possible that the crisis has now officially hit and the decades of pie-in-the-sky negative-interest-rate helicopter-funny-money insanity that has papered over our grim economic reality is about to come crashing down all at once.

    Conclusion: Coronavirus panic is a giant boost for the globalist agenda”.

    https://nexusnewsfeed.com/article/human-rights/coronavirus-the-cures-will-be-worse-than-the-disease

    83

    • #

      “whether it exists at all”?

      20

      • #
        joseph

        I think he’s just making the point that there is more than one idea as to what is actually taking place, and there is that extremity.
        Regardless of what the reality might be we now have to deal with the economic effects. Something like that . . . .

        20

        • #

          Anyone can come up with any number of ideas- they don’t become viable entries into debate just because someone thought of it. There is no need to list them all but he listed that one for some reason.

          50

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Ah but in the voyage of science, a theory is the basis of initiating investigation…

            If the theory holds water, it will progress.

            Unless of course “the science is settled”?

            60

          • #
            joseph

            Maybe he’s listed that one to free us of an encumbrance; the debate to determine truth of the source of the disease, while we’re now trying to come to grips with the developing economical situation.

            30

    • #

      He is right about the spreading impact on global production but the rest sounds like doomsday mega-hype.

      80

  • #
    skeptikal

    On the news tonight various officials told us that now “we can no longer stop the virus coming into the country”.

    This is the virus that Australia had to have.

    /Sarc

    93

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      Sceptical Sam

      If it is then you can thank your lucky stars (and the vote of the “Quiet Australians”) that the Commonwealth budget, courtesy of the Liberal/National government, is as near as dammit to being balanced, thus providing some considerable free-board to direct expenditures towards recovery.

      The drunken sailors of the Labor Party, not to mention the Greens, would still be wallowing around in their $30 billion p. a. deficits – year after year. Remember, Labor hasn’t balanced a budget for more than 30 years. That’s why the country continues to be in debt.

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      sophocles

      This is the virus that Australia had to have.

      Well, kick back, relax, research and write out your Next election revenge list, and enjoy the epidemic while it lasts. Hope you survive it.

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      yarpos

      given it already here, with mortality, that seems a rather pointless staement

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    noisemarine

    CMO Murphy has said that an outbreak in Australia is inevitable. The subtext is that they have given up on containment and intend to let this run its course.

    What now? Every man for himself?

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      Terry

      “outbreak in Australia is inevitable

      So is death, however I would not recommend anyone taking steps to unnecessarily accelerate the process.

      I mean, why where a seat belt when “death is inevitable”?

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      Bill In Oz

      Maybe CMO Murphy will catch it as well !
      ‘Lets hope so !
      Karma !

      11

      • #
        Konrad

        I don’t hope for this.

        What I do hope is that Dr Brendan Furphy finally grows a brain and decides that testing for viral load in the small intestine and kidneys is necessary, no matter how “inconvenient”.

        This virus can only cause havoc in Australia if we allow it. Currently we are on course to allow it, and the only reasons are political, and nothing to do with technological or medical limitations.

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    Peter

    Seems to be a theme in the Main Stream Media today that corona virus is just another ho hum financial / health event which occurs every now and then, and it is really nothing to worry about.
    That people are over reacting, and getting things out of proportion.
    That Central banks will simply lower interest rates and print money, and it will pass just like the previous financial events
    That it is not as bad as spanish flu so while a lot of people might die, it will pass just like the previous virus events.
    It will be interesting to see where we are in 30 days time, and if they are all still inclined to be so blaze.

    30

  • #
  • #

    I recently saw the figures that last year’s flu season caused 80,000 U.S. deaths and 650,000 deaths globally, so we have a ways to go to beat the flu.

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      Konrad

      The “Just the flu” and “The flu kills more” arguments are a non-starter. Winne the Flu is guaranteed to kill more if we don’t fight it.

      The measures being taken in China and other nations are unprecedented. This is the only reason the WuFlu hasn’t outdone normal seasonal flu.

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        I am not suggesting we do not fight it. Just trying to get the scale. I have not been tracking this issue.

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          Emvironment Skeptic

          Good point David IMO.

          I am not able to track the issue through lack of data with respect to those dying in their homes or on the streets from poverty and lack of work or the resources to heat their homes. Winter has been brutal in parts of China that i can see. Personally, i cannot get a sense of the scale of the virus whatsoever until there is reliable data taking into account those dying from non-virus related deaths at this time.

          This is the kind of data that seems to be completely absent…missing in action.

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        • #

          David, welcome to the show. To get the scale stop thinking linearly and shift to exponential.

          As I said on my first post a long long way back Jan 29th:

          Corona virus and those exponential curves we don’t want

          With 8 to 12 doublings til the peak in China, if there are 80,000 infections now, in six weeks there could be 5 million. In 8 weeks 20 million, and in 12 weeks 320 million. If there are only 10,000 infections now, it may mean the same thing with a three-week delay. But that three weeks could make a huge difference to the final tally if the rate of doubling can be slowed aggressively now. Every day counts.

          These estimates are jelly in every sense. The official graph from the John Hopkins live map above suggests the doubling time is much faster than 6 days.

          Unless we get dealt some lucky cards we are looking at the start of exponential growth. It won’t get to the “5 million” mark, but only because we will do major containment and lockdowns. People will do them voluntarily.

          The fact is we have no facts. But we have to make decisions based on the risk we see anyhow.

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          David A

          David,W, remember that the flu is already global. Two months ago almost zero people on the planet had this virus. It started on planet earth in about 3 square feet of mass with patient one.
          Remember that the flu has centuries of natural resistance built up to it by many. This virus has almost zero natural immunity. Left unchecked this virus will cause a panic and economic collapse far worse then disciplined quarantine.
          Remember that the hospitalization rate and that the fatality rate of this virus is much greater then the flu. Some disagree…

          Dr. Matt McCarthy – Author of “Superbugs” – Suggests Coronavirus Numbers from Korea Show Mortality Rate Closer to Flu Rather Than Something Worse (VIDEO)
          https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/dr-matt-mccarthy-author-of-superbugs-suggests-coronavirus-numbers-from-korea-suggest-mortality-rate-close-to-flu-rather-than-something-worse-video

          “He says it is 2X to 4X the death rate of the flu. I assume he is thinking of a still functioning system (he uses S. Korea numbers). ”

          So call it 4 tenths of one percent, or 4 deaths per thousand.

          South Korea has 4,812 confirmed cases and 28 dead, so yes, by the absurdity of his claim, about 5.8 times worse then the flu.
          However as mentioned flu CFR is based on prior years of total infected, total dead, and total cured. So how many S.K. cases are cured? The answer is, 30!!

          https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/ind 800ex.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

          So, via the exact same math used for the flu, fatal as a percentage of cured, South Korea has a CFR of, wait for it, 93 percent, or 930 times worse then the flu. I expect the CFR rate will end up at between 5 and 7 if hospitals are overwhelmed. In many areas that “if” is a when.

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  • #

    I keep hearing of politicians (and here, it was the Queensland Premier Palaszczuk just on the news last night) telling us that if we catch it ….. to stay at home.

    Now why would they say that?

    All I can see is that they don’t want people dying in their hospitals, and the cynic in me thinks that means it reflects badly on them as a Government, and that Government’s Health Department.

    Again, would that not mean that after this COVID-19 has run its course, there will be large number of homes with dead people in them, and how will they clean all that up?

    I have a bad feeling about this. I keep thinking that all the political class are doing now is meeting behind closed doors, planning not how to deal with it, but how to pass the buck, and limit the (political) damage.

    They are out there actively playing it down, full in the knowledge that this will be a disaster on the huge scale.

    Tony.

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      obviously you stay at home. You don’t want people with the virus in the hospital unless they require hospital treatment.

      If it gets worse you call an ambulance or get yourself to hospital somehow. Same as flu really.

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      Konrad

      I believe that our “authorities” have given up on containment because they believe it’s too “politically difficult”.

      Some medical “expert” has no doubt told them that the virus will naturally mutate to a less dangerous strain if let loose in the population. Given the huge evolutionary latitude the virus has, due to asymptomatic persons being infectious, there is no guarantee of mutation in this direction.

      We have the technology to reduce R0 below 1.0 in this country. The only thing stopping us is politics. Our current approach will inevitably lead to chaos. The politicians will then try to hide behind the pathetic “At the time medical advise didn’t indicate these measures were necessary …” excuses. But lack of knowledge is not an excuse for inaction in these circumstances.

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      • #

        Let me get this straight. Medical experts “no doubt” told politicians something but you, a non-expert have the answer. Some self-editing would help you I think. Ask yourself, “am I making a straw man so as to knock it down so as to make myself look smart?”

        Medical experts in the field of infectious diseases know more about evolutionary biology than you ever will.

        27

        • #
          Crakar24

          What level of expertise do you have that enables you to dismiss what others say? I hope I am around to see the bubble you live in burst.

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          PeterS

          For once I have to agree with you, at least in part. There are far too many armchair experts around saying it’s all a conspiracy to set up a NWO. It’s just pure speculation. Even if it were true so what? There’s nothing we can do other than treat this virus seriously and take all necessary precautions. If a NWO is about to be unleashed upon us then so be it. I truly believe it will happen some day. I just doubt now is the right time but time will tell. So better not cry out wolf too often otherwise when the real one comes very few will take notice. Instead just be prepared for the ultimate crash and burn whenever it happens, be it now or in say 15 years times. The world’s financial system was broken a long time ago so it’s just a matter of time before the pied piper comes to town.

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          Konrad

          Leaf, I don’t have to be a “climate scientist” to know that the Stefan-boltzmann equation cannot be used to determine solar thermal gain in the oceans.

          Likewise I don’t have to be a “medical expert” to determine that there is currently little evolutionary pressure to cause this virus to evolve into a less dangerous strain. It is simply logic. No special knowledge required.

          (As an AGW believer, I understand logic is not your strength. You fell for a conjecture that claims the atmosphere warms the oceans).

          To understand “evolutionary pressure” look to what China is doing. Locking people in quarantine centers with no protection against cross infection. Welding shut appartment complexes if even one inside is infected. There is method to their apparent madness. They know what they are doing and they have the spare population to pursue this method. If the virus wants out, it’s going to have to stop killing.

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            Likewise I don’t have to be a “medical expert” to determine that there is currently little evolutionary pressure

            however your logic is that because you are not an expert that means that experts think the opposite and are whispering something “Some medical “expert” has no doubt told them”. Your comment makes no sense.

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            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              So GA, what do you think the “medical experts” have told the government?

              And, why do you think that the government has not implemented immigration shut-downs on countries such as Italy, South Korea?

              What do you think the criteria might be that government uses to decide when to shut-down entry from these countries?

              Do you believe “political difficulty” might have something to do with it?

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              • #

                the government may or may not seek advice. If it gets advice it may or may not listen to the advice. If it listens it may or may not act on that advice.

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      Bill In Oz

      Tony
      The medical advice for infected persons is to go into quarantine.
      Otherwise infected persons are simply spreading !
      Palchook is a complete dumbnut !

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      • #

        apart from childish discourteousness, why would you call her that since what she means by staying at home is “The medical advice for infected persons is to go into quarantine.”

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          At home with family ?
          So they can get sick as well ?
          Palachook is as Palachook does !
          That’s how she got the name !

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    • #

      Really interesting Tony. Telling you to stay home means they already know the won’t have enough beds — but it is sensible in the sense that it stops someone infecting everyone along the way, in the ER, or worse, it stops them going to hospital and catching Coronavirus (when they only have the flu). They ought to be giving people much more detail (soon hopefully) about how to do that and minimize the risk to other family members.

      Infected people need to stay in one room (hopefully with a bathroom to themselves). Don’t sleep in the same room. Someone brings them food and water but stays out. Disposable plates and cups would be useful. Everything coming back out of the room must be assumed to be contagious. It may take them two weeks to recover (assuming they don’t get really sick) but they may shed virus — sigh. We need data on how long they need to be isolated.

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        PeterS

        Staying at home is the best advice if one thinks it through. It’s for the same reason we should close our borders. Stop the spread from getting much worse if that’s at all possible. The price we have to pay though is if enough people do it the economy will grind to a halt. It then comes down to a choice between saving as many people’s live as possible or saving the economy. I prefer the former and stuff the economy; it’s well on the way of being cactus anyway. A reset is well overdue. It should have happened at the GFC but the central banks decided to save us from a deep recession/depression only to allow the next financial crisis to be much worse.

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      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Someone brings them food and water but stays out. Disposable plates and cups would be useful. Everything coming back out of the room must be assumed to be contagious.

        Yep. Most people don’t give thought to such things and will be at risk. Protocols around caring for infected people at home need to be available. For example:

        1. Enter the room with appropriate protection – mask, goggles, gloves. What is the protocol for treatment of the protective gear on coming out of the room?

        2. Disposable cutlery and plates. Bag them in the room after use. Bag them again outside the room in a separate bag that stays outside. What is the protocol for disposal after that?

        3. Bleach the toilet and bathroom facilities each time after use.

        Something along these lines is needed for the general community.

        I didn’t see anything like that in the so-called “well prepared plans” of government.

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    beowulf

    We learned yesterday that Indonesia has 2 confirmed coronavirus cases. It now transpires that the initial infectee was sick for 2 weeks before she was even tested. The authorities did not bother testing 2 other people living in the same house as the infectees, but sent them home from hospital, declaring them “healthy”. They are still only waiting to hear from other symptomatic contacts of the first patient associated with a dance club, ignoring the rest, making no attempt to actively trace anyone.

    The Indonesian health minister’s attitude is: “The most important thing to do is to pray. If we are paranoid our immunity will go down.”

    So much for Indonesia’s claim to have had no coronavirus while countries all around it did. What a surprise. Goodness knows how many other infections have gone undetected there and continue to propagate exponentially in the crowded slums.
    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/03/indonesian-coronavirus-patient-sick-for-2-weeks-before-she-was-tested-for-the-virus.html

    Still on the subject of Indonesia, why is our government not stopping these dodgy “self-quarantine” stopovers by Chinese uni students in the likes of Bali, Thailand and Hong Kong (with an open Chinese border) on their way to Oz? Could it be $$$$$?

    Staying in Bali for a fortnight does not constitute quarantine in any sense. Melbourne uni is even offering $7,500 to each student (along with University of Western Sydney $1,500 and Adelaide Uni $5,000) to cover the cost of stopovers in these so-called “quarantine” destinations.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-26/melbourne-uni-offers-coronavirus-grants-chinese-students/12004262

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    Bill In Oz

    Jo I wonder if anyone in Chinna is noticing
    That they can see the sun during the day
    And the moon & stars at night !

    No pollution of the atmosphere !

    I am also perplexed by something in the coal use figures.
    It has been very cold in China the past 3 months
    So people’s home have needed heating to stay alive

    But if coal use has shrunk to 20% of previous use
    How can people be staying warm ?
    Coal fired power stations are still the major source of electricity in China
    And many buildings are heated via hot water pipe systems,
    Heated by central coal burning heaters.

    Could the lack of heating have been a majorSource of COVID 19 sickness ?

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    • #

      And if large areas were blacked out, how would we know? Only through twitter rumours. But I have not heard that (yet).

      Bear in mind that large smelters blow the coal use — just one smelter in NSW and Vic both use around 10% of the entire states electricity in each state. That’s the decline in China.

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    Bill In Oz

    ( Comment originally posted late last night and probably missed by most folks reading here )
    ////////////

    Jeff Bowles has been hammering away about Vitamin D3 for years.
    And he offers reason why countries which are warmer have been seeing less Corona virus infections :
    He says it’s not the warmth or humidity but the sunlight !
    More sunlight = more vitamin D3 in the body = boosted immune system = better able to fight the Corona 19 virus.
    It’s worth considering !

    https://jefftbowles.com/make-your-immune-system-kill-the-coronavirus-covid-19-before-it-makes-you-sick/

    Disclaimer : Jeff Bowles does not sell Vitamin D3. But he does recommend one USA supplier and may have an ‘agreement’ with that supplier.

    But there are lots of other sources of vitamin D3 – especially online.

    20

    • #
      Emvironment Skeptic

      Bill, here is the latest on vitamin D3 dangers and some of the issues.

      “Vitamin D and Vitamin K2-7: The Critical Co-Dependent Link to Heart Health (with Kiran Krishnan)”
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZeiWMlrceY

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      • #
        Emvironment Skeptic

        “Everything You Need To Know About Vitamin K2″
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-KGceRenn4

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        • #

          Yes, possible reason winter kills may be lower Vit D as well as colder room temps keeping viruses stable longer.

          Even in Brisbane, winter kills, people wear jeans then, less sun exposure.

          Best Vitamin K source is a small bottle (Thorne I think ) that costs $64 on iherb but has a huge dose in a tiny tiny drop so works out cheaply. I take both D and K and have for years.

          Been meaning to post on these things for years but never quite get there.

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            Emvironment Skeptic

            Thanks Jo

            You may be talking about this one…looks good :) https://www.thorne.com/products/dp/vitamin-k2-liquid

            K2 is not a very stable vitamin so there is the possibility of not getting an optimum K2 dose from a capsule or other. I keep mine in the fridge. I make my own Natto and when i am lazy i just take the K2 in a capsules. About 500mcg’s or more with no fear of overdosing as K2 is GRAS (generally regarded as safe.)

            After 3 months, there was as if more oxygen getting through the blood, and at 60 the effects are very very noticeable though delightfully subtle after more than 6 months with this miracle. Great to not be short of breath and feel like i am 40ish again.

            This cardiovascular effect is supposed to be due to the improved ability of the heart to pump more blood as the arteries becoming less calcified and more felxible/stretchy again.

            I don’t take any other supplement other than vitC if i am getting a flu so if i make my own Natto and i take no supplements whatsoever. I have always regarded supplements as like…..using super-phosphate haha…short term results but nothing long term.

            30

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              I’d suggest a good dose of sun during winter may do some good…plenty of vit D.

              20

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                The effectiveness of sunlight depends on the latitude
                Too far North or South is bad for the capacity of the body to make Vitamin D3.
                And the body’s capacity to produce D3 lowers with age.

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              • #
                sophocles

                Here’s a bit of help …

                Auckland’s latitude is 36.8° south and I make more than adequate Vit-D over winter,
                at solar noon on a sunny day. It always feels good.
                https://niwa.co.nz/sites/niwa.co.nz/files/sites/default/files/import/attachments/Web_plots.pdf

                I owe Emvironment Skeptic an apology over vitamin k2. So I apologise Emvironment Skeptic and thank you and Bill in Oz for the nudges that triggered me to get myself up to date there. I have been and am doing a lot of hunting and reading.

                I’m considering a cocktail for CV prevention. I’m not making any bets on hospital systems being able to cope — I’d rather not catch it in the first instant. I’m considering a 3 vitamin defence: Vit C, Vit D, and Vit-K2-7. Vit C from berries and citrus fruit, (both very rich) Vit D from sunshine and K 2-7 from diet. or other supplement. I eat a lot of cheese as it is so that will give me a small amount. Cholecalciferol (Vit D 3) I still think is necessary. It and K2 have a lot of function in common with a lot of overlaps but there are still areas where each is useful to the other. Eg: when it comes to the body’s bone factory, D3 mobilizes Calcium from out of the gut very fast and effectively and K2-7 arranges to park it safely. (More reading and research required …)

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    • #
      yarpos

      not rocket surgery, thats why we have flu injections pre winter. winter is coming i hear

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  • #
    Ruairi

    Preparing is quite good advice,
    With lentils, beans, nuts and rice,
    But if COVID should spread,
    Best take to your bed,
    And hope that your stocks will suffice.

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    TdeF

    I expect that the ordinary people in China are very scared, some terrified. People are self isolating. Few are going to work.

    Our office in Shanghai has the manager who is living with his parents and one employee who can get to work.
    The phones are silent as all the factories are empty. Shanghai alone has 37 million people in practice. It must be terrifying.

    And then all the mega cities and the 200 Adelaide size cities. People are fire bombing coronavirus treatment centres in Hong Kong.

    It’s one thing to measure the output of the empty factories and quite another to appreciate the degree of fear in a whole country. Empty airports, empty shops, empty restaurants, empty trains, empty planes and empty factories. The question is how long everyone can hold out.

    These are just the largest cities, and I believe underestimates by up to 50% given the nature of boundaries

    1 Shanghai 26,808,537
    2 Beijing 20,318,910
    3 Chongqing 15,697,611
    4 Tianjin 13,524,025
    5 Guangzhou Guangdong 13,189,556
    6 Shenzhen Guangdong 12,280,242
    7 Chengdu Sichuan 9,080,788
    8 Nanjing Jiangsu 8,745,666
    9 Wuhan Hubei 8,331,671
    10 Xi’an Shaanxi 7,907,072
    11 Hangzhou Zhejiang 7,573,322
    12 Dongguan Guangdong 7,397,900
    13 Foshan Guangdong 7,303,434
    14 Shenyang Liaoning 7,169,165
    15 Harbin Heilongjiang 6,340,878
    16 Qingdao Shandong 5,579,264
    17 Dalian Liaoning 5,564,471

    now add 200 Adelaides

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      TdeF

      Wuhan is only ninth. And Hong Kong’s 7.4 million are not included.

      What sort of insanity is it to fire bomb corona virus treatment centres? 100 people have been arrested.

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        TdeF

        5 Million fled Wuhan, that’s 70% of the population! This giant city must be a ghost town, with more ghosts by the hour.

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    Gbees

    “Collecting dead bodies is now on a bounty system, similar to how bodies were collected in Europe during the plague.” <- interesting as there are a number of videos surfacing of people being kidnapped at gunpoint off the streets in China.

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    • #
      TdeF

      Appalling but desperate times call for desperate measures in a scared population. Who would do this job here in the middle of a lethal contagion? It is reminiscent of the plagues which swept Europe every twenty years. Bring out your dead. And it seems to be hitting the Chinese population harder than others, for whatever reason. And no consolation if you are in Wuhan.

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      Roger Knights

      “interesting as there are a number of videos surfacing of people being kidnapped at gunpoint off the streets in China.”

      Huh? Why?

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      • #
        Gbees

        Not sure why. One lady was forced into the back of a trailer in a box no bigger than a dog trailer. She can be heard screaming as they drive off.

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    PeterS

    Seeing some YouTubers posting videos of people falling in the streets and dying in Iran. Not sure if this is something that always happens there for other reasons but it does go to show we are still so lucky here in spite of our decrepit politicians.

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    TdeF

    We are much more dispersed. The crowds in these cities are unbelievable. Tehran is nearly 9 million people. I was in Old Delhi last year where walking is difficult in tiny alleys and even bicycles cannot get through. Perfect for viruses.

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      PeterS

      I was in India some 25 years ago and it was bad then. I hate to think how bad it is now.

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        TdeF

        And in Shanghai, over 1 million people a weekend visit just the Nanking road pedestrian mall, which is relatively uncrowded.

        Moscow trains make 1 million passenger trips a day.

        You have to think that it’s a great thing that the warm weather is coming! But not for us.

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      OriginalSteve

      That was the benefit of the great fire of london….big rebuild but not as crowded…

      Disease spreads fast in crowded conditions.

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  • #
    TdeF

    And the UN/WHO will praise China and blame the virus on Climate Change and Donald Trump.

    What needs to be done is to outlaw the sale of live bats and pangolin in the markets of Wuhan. Almost all of the major SARS, MERS, HENDRA, Covid-19 and even AIDS are bat derived, by civet cat, pangolin. The Chinese are wiping out all the pangolin from the Phillipines which have a 99% overlap with the Covid-19 RNA, where the overlap with the Bat version RNA is 97%.

    If China wants to stop plagues, most of which originate in bats, they have to do something. That does not mean vegetarian but we already have so many diseases from cows, dogs, sheep. Small pox, tuberculosis, rabies, .. We do not need bat viruses! Climate Change has killed no one and the Gretas and Attenboroughs and ABCs and PETAs of this world would be better trying to save the pangolins!

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      Crakar24

      Last time I checked the virus did not originate in the Wuhan markets

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      • #

        last time I looked it was a possibility

        from here https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

        COVID-19 is a zoonotic virus.From phylogenetics analyses undertaken with available full genome sequences, bats appear to be the reservoir of COVID-19 virus, but the intermediate host(s) has not yet been identified. However, three important areas of workarealreadyunderwayin China to inform our understandingof the zoonoticorigin of this outbreak. These include early investigations of cases with symptom onset in Wuhan throughoutDecember 2019, environmental samplingfromthe Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market and other area markets, and the collectionof detailed records onthe sourceand type of wildlifespecies sold at theHuananmarketand the destination of thoseanimals after the market was closed.

        also note the lovely phylogeny

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          Crakar24

          There is nothing in that statement which supports your hypothesis. Of course non of us are experts and fortunately only one if us is pretending to be one

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        el gordo

        Crakar we are told that the virus originated in the Wuhan wet market, which makes sense because wild life is sold there.

        Beijing is attempting to eradicate this practice to avoid future pandemics.

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          Meglort

          That is entirely incorrect.

          There is considerable evidence that many of the first cases had no connection with the market at all.

          It certainly ended up there without argument, but originating, no.

          Do you work for the CCP?

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      Meglort

      Rabid Rattenborough did a doco on the pangolin trade a few months back.
      There is an absolute issue there.

      However the worst part of it is how they trained the pangolin, to splice HIV proteins into the virus circulating in the bat while it was making love to the snake whilst both were infected by SARS, to then get caught and sold at the wet market.
      Oh the serendipity of it all…amazing really.

      If only the BSL4 lab just down the road knew about it, could have saved them a lot of work!

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    paul

    china has probably smashed this virus at home by absolute draconian measures. They know no one else will act this way so they will be betting on economic collapse in the west whilst they pick up the pieces later this year and the years to come

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  • #
    Roger Knights

    (Reposted from the end of the prior thread, where it was likely missed by all)

    “Kirkland, Wash., becomes epicenter of coronavirus response as cases spread”

    WaPo, By Maria Sacchetti and Ashley Nguyen March 1, 2020 at 7:37 p.m. PST

    Officials in Seattle and King County confirmed four new cases of coronavirus-related illnesses on Sunday, bringing the state total to 13.

    City officials said that 25 firefighters and two police officers who were exposed to the virus at the LifeCare Center of Kirkland have shown no symptoms but are under close watch, while a county health department official said there were more than 50 residents and staff at the center who were reportedly ill with symptoms. [?!] Authorities also are worried that others — including 17 nursing students and four faculty and staff members from Lake Washington Institute of Technology — were exposed to the virus at the nursing home last week during a visit.

    The public college decided to close its 7,000-student campus in Kirkland through Tuesday to disinfect the school out of “an abundance of caution,” Shattuck said. The school also canceled a staff training session on diversity and an open house scheduled for this week.

    City Manager Kurt Triplett said come Monday, Kirkland residents will see some new signs encouraging elbow bumps or waves. “We all need to adjust to this as the new normal,” Triplett said. “We may be seeing the end of the handshake.”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/coronavirus-spread-kirkland-washington/2020/03/01/5e112fb8-5c10-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_first_reads&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_rainbow&wpmm=1

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      Lionell Griffith

      So much for the “if you don’t talk or think about ‘it’, ‘it’ won’t happen” theory of the universe. Changing the name of ‘it’ doesn’t work so well either. That leaves defining ‘it’ out of existence. My guess is that won’t work either. Just maybe, what is, is and the best thing to do is treat ‘it’ for what ‘it’ is. Do it
      knowingly, openly, honestly, and the best you can considering the circumstances.

      The real challenge is knowing what ‘it’ is well enough to be able to know what to do about ‘it’ and then doing the right things. So far, the prospects of this happening aren’t looking so good. We are all the way up to “whistling as we walk past the cemetery”. My experience is that it might make you feel better but the monsters lurking in the shadows are unimpressed.

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    Roger Knights

    “China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index in February plunged to 35.7 from 50 in January.”

    This may be what caused the big stock market drop last week. (?)

    “Reuters, meanwhile, are reporting that things are picking up in China”

    And this may be what caused the market to bounce back a bit on Monday. How’s the timing?

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  • #
    joseph

    Here’s another little gobsmacker . . . . Wall Street and WHO . . . . pandemic bonds!!

    https://www.mintpressnews.com/wall-street-behind-delay-declaring-coronavirus-outbreak-pandemic-bonds/265264/

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    Meglort

    A really excellent analysis by Serpentza here:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msrqE87yTRs

    Poignant and well stated, however the west is not blameless in this.
    But to his point, where are the Greta Dumbergs, so-called eco warriors and virtue signalling MSM peons when it really matters?

    Maybe that is not their real agenda.

    There is zero chance of CO2 destroying the planet, but every chance this stuff will.
    It would be nice to think this WuFlu will stop the madness, but we may need a CFR > 25% for that.

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  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Indonesia, finally, has confirmed it’s first cases. That does blow a hole in the “it needs cold temps theory”

    /Close the borders

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  • #
    PoliticalAgnostic

    This article is total garbage written by China bashers.
    This is what it should say
    China’s USA’s ability to threaten its neighbors the world with its neocon thugs will be much weakened as its government revenues crater.
    Fact china’s production is getting back to normal, only Wuhan is isolated. as of 2 days ago there were only 2 new cases outside Wuhan province.
    Now the West is running about like headless chickens.

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    richard

    off piste but I just wanted to draw attention to tomorrow is World obesity day . Obesity is now a problem in every country in the world and effecting a third of the world’d population and increasing!

    Some climate change we are having. Only 12 years left to save the world and in the meantime the world’s population are becoming fat lards.

    https://www.worldobesity.org/news/press-release-world-obesity-day-is-changing

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  • #
    Bill In Oz

    The situation in Thailand will shortly become critical !
    There are 140,000 plus Thai illegal workers in South Korea
    The South Korean government has demanded that these illegal workers
    All return to Thailand
    Many have been working in Daegu – now shut down !
    And in Thailand the government has decided that these
    Thai nationals retruning to Thailand from a CORONA 19 diseased area
    Do NOT have to enter any quarantine
    As there is no Thai law requiring them to do so !

    Ummmm So, South Korea has decided to
    EXPORT this disease
    And Thailand just says
    OK !

    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-government-says-no-laws-to-quarantine-illegal-workers-returning-to-thailand-from-south-korea-due-to-coronavirus

    When will Hunt & Murphy add Thailand & South Korea to the list of quarantined countries ?

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      PS I wonder how many illegal workers
      from the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Burma etc
      Will suddenly turn up on their home countries with this disease ?

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  • #
    neil

    The UN has failed for 75 years to convince the first world to give them control of the worlds economy, war reconstruction, nuclear threat, African famine, the next ice age, global warming. Every one of their scare campaigns failed. They have been struggling to make global warming relevant and global extinction has gained no traction with the public.

    How long before they attempt to convince first world governments that only the UN can fix corona virus and they will need the first world to give them control of the worlds economy to achieve it.

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    Bill In Oz

    Can COVID 10 be transferred viia blood transfusions ?
    Probably !
    But no research has been . been done yet.
    But better to be sage than sorry !
    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/blood-banks-and-hospitals-advised-to-take-precautions-to-prevent-transfusion-transmitted-infections-ttis-of-coronavirus-by-contaminated-blood-

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  • #
    Roger Knights

    “Coronavirus has claimed six U.S. lives; patients being treated in at least 15 states
    What we know about the coronavirus: Symptoms, transmission and response

    As of late February, people have tested positive for the coronavirus in more than 40 countries. Officials are taking “unprecedented” actions.
    (Amber Ferguson, Jayne Orenstein/The Washington Post)
    March 2, 2020 at 7:28 p.m. PST

    SEATTLE — The U.S. death toll from the coronavirus rose to six on Monday, and patients were being treated in at least 15 states, deepening fears about the outbreak’s rapid spread and the medical, psychological and economic toll it will exact on the United States.

    Four deaths announced Monday and two others this weekend all occurred in Washington state, the center of the nation’s most serious outbreak. Eight of the state’s 18 cases, as well as four of the deaths, are linked to the Life Care Center nursing home in Kirkland, Wash., and at least 50 other residents and staff members have reported coronavirus-like symptoms. King County leaders declared a state of emergency, and health officials said they are trying to figure out how far the outbreak has expanded into surrounding counties.

    Nationwide, the number of cases topped 100, and U.S. officials used increasingly dire language, even as they sought to push back against waves of panic and misinformation online.”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-has-claimed-six-us-lives-spread-to-at-least-13-states/2020/03/02/4bf7e31c-5cc4-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_first_reads&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_rainbow&wpmm=1

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  • #
    Peter

    I live in Seoul, South-Korea. I follow the news on COVID-19 in Korea very closely. It is part of my job here. So I would like to mention some underlying facts and statistics to counter some fears that might arise from the Korean situation.

    Korea has indeed seen a big increase in cases. From just a few to more than 5000 in about two weeks. That sounds scary, but is it really?
    Of all these cases, close to 90% is in or around the city of Daegu (population of that region is 3mln). Almost all these cases can be linked to one megachurch and a funeral home where they has a service for the brother of the head of this church.

    Since the first cases appeared in this megachurch, the government has ordered all its 200,000+ members to be tested. Just over half is done now. Korea will see many more new cases, mainly in the Daegu region, for another two weeks (in my opinion).

    Of all the 5000+ cases, about 15 patients have severe problems, about 15 are in critical conditions. The condition of all other people with COVID-19 ranges from having hardly any symptoms to having a bad flu.

    Can we compare the number of cases in Korea with the number of cases in Japan? To make a good comparison, you need to look at the measurement system first (just like with temperature/climate data). Japan and many other countries do not pro-actively test people. Only when people have some symptoms, people will be tested. As mentioned above, Korea is testing many people. In the US, you have to pay to get tested (I have seen numbers of 1400 USD); in Korea it is almost free. If you would have minor symptoms, would you get tested for 1400USD in the US? In many Western European countries, people tend to tough it out without visiting a doctor when they are having flu symptoms; in Korea people tend to visit the hospital for even a small cough. So Korean people get tested a lot, others do not. In Korea the statistics will include many minor cases; statistics of other countries do not.

    Korea has seen 31 people die with the virus. Average age of the people who passed away is 70 years old. Before getting the virus, they all had a combination of pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer, pneumonia, high blood pressure, kidney problems, brain damage, liver issue, …). Two of the people who passed away underwent an organ transplant (meaning their immune systems were artificially weakened so the body would more easily accept the new organ) just before they caught the virus. In Korea, no healthy person has passed away due to the virus.

    There is no two (or three) week lag to death. For the people who passed away in Korea, the average time between diagnosed with COVID-19 and passing away is 2.5 days.

    So while the basic numbers seem to be scary, if you understand the underlaying data the situation is much less scary.

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    Choroin

    I guess the only businesses to be in the black in the coming year will be crematoria, mortuary, funeral, and burial services.

    I think these businesses should have their own GICS sector and stock market index; that way we can get accurate info without the MSM noise.

    The only data I trust is data exposed to market pressures, everything else is wishful thinking or straight out propaganda – usually, in Current Year.

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    • #
      yarpos

      Remains to be seen , you may find there arent that many more deaths, just old folks deaths time shifted a little. On the other hand prepping supplies and toilet paper ….

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    Peter Fitzroy

    Thanks

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