JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Antiviral drugs – antimalarials and anti HIV may be useful

I’ve said from the start that anti-virals were always going to be more useful to us this year than vaccines, which take so long to test and be ready for use. What we really need are anti-virals which also happen to be preapproved and tested and hopefully in mass production. Chloroquine is cheap too, though I doubt Australian stocks of the drug are very high, or that our genius rulers have arranged more. This may be a godsend in Africa where chloroquine use is already high and may reduce the spread of Covid-19 somewhat.

The UK banned export of chloroquine a few weeks ago. Clearly someone there thought it might be useful.

Wang et al reported on Feb 4th that Chloroquine (anti-Malarial) and Remdesivir (anti HIV) may be useful against Coronavirus. They used lab experiments on cells in glass, which had promise. But “in vitro” doesn’t always mean “in vivo”. So I’ve been waiting for some results on people. Early reports were ambiguous. Recently this was hyped as an “Australian cure” which really just meant the start of a proper trial.

There are links to papers and discussion below but I can’t beat this great description explaining how inside the cells zinc stops a major viral protein from copying the virus. Chloroquine is a zinc ionophore — it opens the ion gates and pumps zinc into the cell, just what we want if we have virus trying to take over the cellular machinery.

The South Korean results are not based on a randomized blind trial so we can’t be sure if it works. But the South Korean death rates are lower. Perhaps they are doing a better treatment than Italy. Perhaps the viral strains are different. Perhaps the population is different, older, have higher blood pressure, etc etc.

Japan is trailling HIV meds. 

h/t to Bulldust, Geoff S, Willie Soon, Eric Worrall, David E, Hugh P, Colin A, Chris D.

Please send a letter to incompetent Health Ministers to make sure they are looking at how to maximize stocks now, and to remove bureaucratic hurdles to using this for the most severe cases, which may help reduce the ICU load as well as keep people alive.

This is yet another reason to go hard, go fast, reduce the rate of infections.

If treatments are just around the corner, the financial and “lives” advantage will be amplified if we stop the explosive exponential curve as fast as possible. Brendan-let-them-die-Murphy our fatalistic Chief Medical Officer seems to have given up on saving as many Australians as possible.

New Chloroquine study in France

A renowned research professor in France has reported successful results from a new treatment for Covid-19, with early tests suggesting it can stop the virus from being contagious in just six days.

Professor Didier Raoult from infection hospital l’Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire (IHU) Méditerranée Infection in Marseille (Bouches-du-Rhône, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur), published a video explaining the trials on Monday March 16.

This was a small study on only 24 patients. Doses were 600mcg/day for ten days.

“We were able to ascertain that patients who had not received Plaquenil (the drug containing hydroxychloroquine) were still contagious after six days, but of those that had received Plaquenil, after six days, only 25% were still contagious.”

On March 13 another paper wrote up the guidelines from South Korean doctors and Chinese medical teams.

Treatment Guidelines from South Korea[7]

  1. If patients are young, healthy, and have mild symptoms without underlying conditions, doctors can observe them without antiviral treatment;
  2. If more than 10 days have passed since the onset of the illness and the symptoms are mild, physicians do  not have to start an antiviral medication;
  3. However, if patients are old or have underlying conditions with serious symptoms, physicians should  consider an antiviral treatment. If they decide to use the antiviral therapy, they should start the administration as soon as possible: … chloroquine 500mg orally per day.
  4. As chloroquine is not available in Korea, doctors could consider hydroxychloroquine 400mg orally per day (Hydroxychloroquine is an analog of chloroquine used against malaria, autoimmune disorders, etc.  It is widely available as well).
  5. The treatment is suitable for 7 – 10 days, which can be shortened or extended depending on clinical progress. Notably, the guidelines mention other antivirals as further lines of defense, including anti-HIV drugs.

Mechanism of action — increases intracellular pH to clogs up cells machinery which stops viral replication.

A different view on how it works (I prefer the video description above).

 COVID-19 in a single stranded, positive strain RNA virus with a protein shell and membrane.  The genome is of the same sense of the mRNA.  It goes through a lifecycle where incoming viral COVID genome has to become double stranded RNA and the new strand becomes the new strand for the new mRNA.  There are significant similarities between COVID-19 and SARS coronavirus.  Both COVID-19 and SARS-like coronaviruses have machinery for regulating their own replication and production of their proteins.  Coronavirus depends on the breakdown of macromolecules such as proteins.  Specifically, the virus depends on turning over the host proteins to trigger response for available building blocks to make their own proteins or nucleic acids.  They break down due to low PH catalyzed by hydrolysis. Additionally, coronaviruses have non-structural proteins that are not part of the capsid (protein shell of the virus).  These non-structural proteins are regulatory proteins that take over the host cell and suppress the immune system of the host (similar to HIV).  Coronavirus can create growth factor like mechanisms (e.g. cytokines) to optimize the growth environment in the cell to favor it.

 It is this part of the coronavirus’ replicative path that chloroquine inhibits.  Notably, because of its nitrogen structure, chloroquine has the unique ability to get into cells and cross endosomal membranes.  Once inside, nitrogens in chloroquine (and quinines in general) prevent acidification by absorbing a high amount of hydrogens that simply then interact with nitrogen and then chloroquine becomes positively charged – an ionic interaction which makes it harder for the endosome to become acidified.  The result is a buffer that holds it at the higher pH and prevents it from becoming acidic enough to be functional.  To summarize, because chloroquine has a multitude of extra nitrogens, once it crosses the membrane and enters an organelle, the organelle is prevented from reaching a lower pH.  The organelle’s enzymes cannot work because the donor group will be a hydrogen ion, disabling the hydrolysis required for coronavirus replication.  This means that all kinds of events in the cell are incapable of performing optimally, including viral replication.

 Chloroquine’s entrance into the organelle likely constipates the whole system.  An analogy is that the virus is like a garbage facility which has to break down and burn up the garbage and if it cannot, the garbage piles up and the city becomes paralyzed.  This is likely the case for any virus, cancer cells or any other condition that is dependent on turning over the worn out or incorrectly synthesized proteins.

In this view it’s a broadscale clogger of cellular machinery and you probably wouldn’t want to take it every day, but in an extreme situation it could be very helpful in buying time.

Other FDA approved drugs might help too:

 As per Steve Schow PhD, Professor of Chemical and Systems Biology at Stanford University School of Medicine and Lead Advisor to Stanford’s SPARK Translational Research Program:

 “There are a number of related isoquinoline and quinoline drug family members who might exhibit the same general acid neutralizing effects. In addition certain antidepressants and antipsychotic drugs are known to accumulate in lysosomes via this acid-base process and might be effective here if the doses needed aren’t too high.”[18]

There are always side-effects

Worth knowing: Low dose long term use raised all cause death rates by 25%. Hm.

Quinine for leg cramps increases risk of death, study finds

 Last year, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration warned against using quinine as an antidote for night-time leg muscle cramps or “restless legs,” said Patel. The FDA reported “adverse events with serious outcomes … including 93 deaths” in people who used the remedy. And it wasn’t the first time health officials have expressed concerns about quinine. The substance is linked to bleeding and an irregular heart rate. Quinine is only FDA-approved for use as a malaria treatment.

They analyzed data on individuals who had taken 100 milligrams of quinine salt per day or more, and who had used the pills for at least one year between January 1990 and December 2014, and compared them to a larger group of patients who had not used quinine. The follow-up period was about 5.7 years.

Death rates among quinine-takers were higher over time. There were 11,598 deaths (4.2 per 100 person-years) among the 44,699 participants who took quinine compared with 26,753 deaths (3.2 per 100 person-years) among the 130,496 people who didn’t take the pills.

Note the doses: the leg cramp study people were taking the equivalent of more than 1L of Tonic a day.

The FDA only allows 83 milligrams of quinine per liter bottle of tonic or quinine water. That comes out to be about 20 milligrams of quinine per 8-ounce glass.

It’s not clear to me what does of Tonic Water would even be applicable. The South Koreans were talking about 400-500mg which is 5L of tonic water a day (assuming that quinine = chloroquinone = Hydroxychloroquine which is not true).

For those wondering why vaccines are so slow — it’s because there is really no shortcut to the three stage process of testing a new drug. Phase I is low dose just to make sure the drug doesn’t obviously hurt people. Possible downsides to vaccines include that sometimes, rarely, the disease can even be worse in people infected after being vaccinated. Biggest problem is that it may not provoke a useful response from the immune system or it may work, but not last long, and it may takes months of work to find that kind of thing out.

______________________________________________

Coronavirus Background: ☀ The Demographics: the severity increases with age, and slightly more for men than women. ☀ The Ro is 2 – 3 and exponential curves are steep. How Coronavirus kills: why the number of ICU units matters so much. ☀ Illness progression: Dry coughs and Fevers, Aches. In 15% of people, by day 5 breathing trouble starts. In 3% (?) by day 8 they may need an ICU (intensive care unit). ☀ The good case of Singapore but the ominous calculations of how fast the ICU beds may run out. ☀ Proof that viruses don’t have wings and we should have stopped all flights so much earlier. ☀ The story of how American Samoa avoided Flu Deaths with quarantine in 1918. ☀ The story of Vo, the Italian town that stopped the virus. ☀ Delay = Death, statistics show mortality rates rise tenfold if hospitals are overwhelmed. ☀ Projections of all US States death tolls depending on quarantine levels and the date that hospitals could be overwhelmed ☀ One doctor describes his “Holy S***” moment ☀ ☀ ☀

We must Crush the Curve to save lives and the economy.

Economics: ☀ The huge impact on the Chinese economy ☀ the awful case of Iran.☀

Beware UN advice:Ethiopian WHO chief was part of China’s debt trap diplomacy ☀

Stats and Data: John Hopkins Live Map Worldometer Coronavirus data in Australia

 

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Rating: 9.6/10 (48 votes cast)
Antiviral drugs - antimalarials and anti HIV may be useful , 9.6 out of 10 based on 48 ratings

266 comments to Antiviral drugs – antimalarials and anti HIV may be useful

  • #
    Sceptical Sam

    I wonder how much Chloroquine the Commonwealth has in storage in its National Strategic Reserve?

    How does one get to know?

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    • #
      el gordo

      It can be bought online, so no immediate concern.

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      • #
        Deplorable Lord Kek

        “It can be bought online”

        until someone decides to buy it all and hoard it.

        no milk, meat, tinned food, toilet paper etc. at my local supermarket today.

        81

        • #
          tonyb

          Deplorable

          We have three small local supermarkets round us in the UK plus a bakers, butchers and fishmongers. Lorries are continually rolling up to the supermarkets and stock replenished, then it runs down again. No problems with any of the above except tinned food. There is even some toilet paper but I am sure that will not last long.

          But I guess it also shows that no community should rely too much on supermarkets or online services as delivery times for online food deliveries has lengthened sharply.

          Even some cafes are open and some people are at them, but it would help if the weather would warm up as many people would be more comfortable sitting outside rather than in a room.

          71

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          What!!…still no test kits online?… with a guarantee and warranty the test kits work 100% of the time? Else face massive law suits :)no *public* corona test kits yet on the supermarket shelves that i have been able to see lately….the ‘Corona Test Kit‘ should almost be a generic term by now??

          Stepping ahead, surely a test kit is easier than an entire uncomfortably prickly vaccine in the absence of the risk of people overdosing on antimalarial‘s and so forth??

          32

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            And tracking, and various corona phone apps is something else i have been avoiding whilst shopping on-line. If Jo could or someone else could do a blog about the potential hazards of mobile tracking and medical martial law, i will gladly read the opinion piece.

            Verify everything believe nothing.

            A test kit is all
            [slow drawl]

            41

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              The microbial world is running tests all the time, since their existence and thus even our own existence is commensal with respect to the microscopic world we share. We have much to know.…. And ….what’s holding up the test kits?? test kits anyone??

              Some notes.
              From: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4216679/
              Anatomical localization of commensal bacteria in immune cell homeostasis and disease”
              By “Thomas C. Fung,1,2,3 David Artis,2,3,4 and Gregory F. Sonnenberg1,3″

              (the significance of LPS is quite focal in this study IMO..Kiran Krishnan is a master of undestanding this so there are plenty of Kiran’s talks on youtube where he focus’s on LPS (lipopolysaccharides)

              Very interesting study that can be found on the link…

              Chronic viral infections [my bolding]

              Chronic viral infections are strongly associated with the loss of intestinal barrier function, commensal bacteria translocation to peripheral tissues and induction of systemic inflammation in humans (15, 92–95) [my bolding]. A seminal finding by Douek and colleagues demonstrated that patients chronically infected with HIV, and those that have progressed to AIDS, exhibit elevated plasma LPS levels, suggesting that translocation of gram-negative bacteria components or whole gram-negative bacteria occurs in these diseases (15, 95). Consistent with elevated plasma LPS, the peripheral blood of AIDS patients exhibited signs of systemic immune activation such as the presence of elevated serum IFNα, activated monocytes and activated circulating CD8+ T cells, hallmarks that contributes to viral replication, dissemination and disease progression (15, 95, 96). Interestingly, SIV-infected sooty mangabeys, which are natural hosts of SIV that do not develop AIDS, did not exhibit loss of intestinal barrier function, bacterial translocation or systemic inflammation (97). Bacterial translocation has been observed in other chronic viral infections such as HCV and HBV. Patients infected with HCV and HBV had elevated plasma LPS, which was associated with parameters of systemic immune activation such as elevated serum levels of the TLR4-co-receptor CD14 and IL-6 (98). Taken together, these data suggest that loss of anatomical restriction of gram-negative commensal bacteria-derived products contribute to the pathogenesis of chronic viral infections.

              11

        • #
          ivan

          I’m still trying to work out why there was a run on toilet paper in Australia – do you people know something the world doesn’t?

          21

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Yep.

        So could TP.

        31

      • #

        I thought Chloroquine might work. Used to take this in PNG. Didn’t get malaria, but I don’t recall getting colds or anything similar in three years. I asked today at the local pharmacy: it needs a prescription and you can’t get Chloroquine anyway. Is it still over the counter in PNG? Anyone? Medical care up there was great when we were there.
        You could get topical antibiotics to clear up things like infected leg abscesses. They didn’t use cream (oil) based versions like get used in Australia and just melt off, but some sort of paint-based version, eg it went on like paint and was different colours so you knew what type was tried.

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      • #
        ColA

        El gordo,

        Chloroquine and similar quinine drugs in Australia are for Malaria treatment and are not sold over the counter you have to have a Doctors prescription, even online.

        Easer to just drink tonic water (more enjoyable with a good glug of GIN!!) Or to buy some bonal gentiane-quina.

        I started my medications last night, yum! :-)

        41

    • #
      tonyb

      Sceptical Sam

      As had never heard of this drug until yesterday it shows how much there is to know about so many different things!

      You might find this interesting

      https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/parallel-export-covid-19/

      I am pleased the UK govt is so on the ball on this as UK supplies are not large and this material is needed for testing for its effectiveness with covid 19.

      I suspect the UK govt was ahead of the curve, as due to brexit it was feared that the supply of medical drugs might be hindered by new trading rules as the EU try to play hardball. Consequently stockpiles have been created and new sources of supply from outside the Eu located

      41

    • #
      Bulldust

      Tagging this here for visibility. The latest Medcram covers the statistical analysis which demonstrates the importance of extensive testing to stop the spread of the virus, as well as additional papers and tests on chloroquines.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AToF8O5T86s

      11

      • #
        Mike Jonas

        “the statistical analysis which demonstrates the importance of extensive testing to stop the spread of the virus”.

        I find it interesting that the virus seems to spread faster in wealthier, more advanced countries. eg, take a look at the Coronavirus map of Africa, where Egypt and South Africa have the most cases, and the poorer countries are less affected.

        Extensive testing would not appear to be the major factor. Is it that wealthier citizens travel more, so bring in the virus? Is it that wealthier citizens have less daily exposure to dirt so have less natural resistance? Or is it something else?

        There is a large Chinese presence in Africa, and presumably there has been a large movement of Chinese into and out of Africa since the Wuhan virus started, so maybe travel is not the major factor. But then, maybe there are a lot more cases in Africa than are in the official stats because people simply aren’t being tested.

        So much we don’t know.

        21

        • #
          Bulldust

          A number of factors here, and potentially here:

          1) Africa will have minimal testing as yet – can’t find what you don’t look for.
          2) Africa is far younger than western countries, demographically speaking.
          3) As you state, wealthier countries can travel more, and more quickly (mode of transport), both of which would exacerbate the spread.
          4) I heard somewhere that there is more genetic variation in Africa than the rest of the world combined – presumably because most other races stemmed from a relatively small group leaving Africa a few years back.
          5) Someone commented that the antibiotic resistance is far higher in the Italian population and speculated that might be leading to higher mortality rates (secondary infections). You need a wealthy medical system to be able to splash antibiotic drugs around excessively.
          6) Reporting will be more reliable in the developed countries – if many die in African countries, they may not be reported, or diagnosed.

          21

      • #
        Bulldust

        For another perspective here is Ron Paul (yes, that Ron Paul the former POTUS contender):

        http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/54033.htm

        Before you say he doesn’t understand the virus, bear in mind he is a physician by training. There is a middle road between “this is going to kill us all” and “this is just another flu.” At the moment markets and politicians are in full fear-monger mode and taking advantage.

        01

    • #
      Mike Jonas

      Our local chemist was unable to supply Plaquenil for a prescription yesterday. Didn’t know how long it would take. That’s very unusual. Either there’s a supply disruption, or people are hoarding (but it needs prescription), or government is stocking up. It would be interesting to know which.

      31

  • #
    Rolf

    I think I read yesterday somewhere UK have now banned export of Chloroquine Sulphate. As have China. China also banned the Chinese medicin QiungFei PaiDu Decoction. (QPD). Studies show QPD was used in China to stop spreading Wuhan-Covid-19. But seem like even they are responsible for all the deaths all over the world and try to blame US, they do not want to share any medicine that helps. Strange if this is true. HydroxyChloroquine may have worse side effects compared to Chloroquine Sulphate.

    32

    • #
      Gee aye

      I think I read somewhere should be a moderation statement

      Actually

      I think

      On its its own.

      Please don’t bother unless there is some evidence

      310

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Every day i am being bombarded by bacteria and virus’s.

        I want a test kit that is 1000% reliable before i go off and have medical side effects from new fandangle drugs willy nilly…thanks!!

        41

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          On the optimistic side, virus immunity is looking good as far as i can tell.
          The entire showcase is still waiting on DIY test kits.
          Surely the peace prize goes out to the DNA RNA corona test kit providers.
          Don’t leave home without one :)

          31

  • #
    tonyb

    On several different sites I have seen someone assert that fully one third of Italians are resistant to anti biotics as it is so commonly prescribed over there, implying this has an effect on the large number of covid 19 cases.

    Can anyone tell me if;

    A) That is true
    b) What sort of medical conditions were being treated with the antibiotics
    c) Are those medical conditions likely to result in greater susceptibility to corona virus
    d) Are anti biotics actually used to treat this virus

    There are many cultural differences between the Italian and Anglo culture which will likely affect the spread of the virus so I wondered if this anti biotics business was one of them? Thanks

    61

    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      “ANSA) – Milan, March 13 – Italy is top in Europe for antibiotics-resistant deaths, according to a Higher Health Institute (ISS) study to be presented to the VII international congress of the Infectious and Tropical Issues (AMIT) organisation.

      Italy alone accounts for more than 10,000 of Europe’s 33,000 deaths due to resistance to antibiotics each year, the ISS said.

      It said that in 2050 bacterial infections will be the main cause of deaths in Italy.”

      http://www.ansa.it/english/news/science_tecnology/2019/03/13/italy-top-for-antibiotics-resistance_f0042073-b347-4787-978c-2e642c0255d1.html

      91

      • #
        tonyb

        deplorable

        Thanks for that. So I guess my question A) is answered. Hopefully others can answer the others.

        A highly tactile nation with many intergenerational contacts with an older generation resistant to anti biotics and who habitually smoked does not sound a good combination to resist this virus

        41

        • #

          Wow. Interesting. I have wondered if the deaths are due to the coronavirus directly or a secondary bacterial infection, or some co-infecting agent. If Coronavirus damages the lungs to the point where bacteria get a headstart — antibiotics would make a huge difference.

          I have heard in relation to influenza that sometimes even when a virus is diagnosed and no bacterial source is identified, sometimes it still helps to give antibiotics anyway. Probably we can’t identify all bacteria easily.

          131

          • #
            tonyb

            Jo

            I think much the same comments apply to China as regards the heavy smoking and intergenerational contact.

            I don’t know about how tactile they may be or if they are resistant to anti biotics, but I am sure others here will know if there are these additional similarities to the Italians.

            Many North Italians-where the hotspot is will live in smallish apartments (because of high prices) so again that may be similar to Wuhan.

            So a poorly ventilated small space where there are lots of tactile visitors of all ages who don’t know they are infected might be another common theme.

            71

          • #
            Ross

            There is a figure floating around the Net now saying only 3% of the deaths in Italy related to the virus DID NOT have an underlying health condition.

            42

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              It’s misinformation BS Ross !

              03

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              That can’t be right, can it?

              The last Australian to succumb to coronavid19 was a perfectly healthy 86 year old.

              The 25 year old young man who documented his tussle with coronavid19 in Wuhan was also otherwise in perfect health. The fact he is reported to have celebrated at various stages of his ordeal with alcohol is completely understandable.
              The young football player in Europe, 20 years?, who died was another coronavid19 victim. The fact that he had leukaemia was irrelevant because it was undiagnosed, and as everyone knows, that doesn’t count.

              I’m sure that no deaths have been misdiagnosed and that flue has not been mistaken for coronavid19.

              KK

              51

              • #
                Graeme No.3

                KK
                21 years old. In Spain.
                I am not sure how they tell deaths from flu from deaths from Covid19 especially in a hospital under extreme stress.

                21

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Graeme 3.

                That’s the whole point.
                I think that they are just assigning all current deaths as ViroConda19.

                All anyone has to do is look at the ages of the six people who have sadly been attributed to ViroConda19 here in Australia.

                Check them; it’s astounding.

                KK

                02

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          That and Italy has a higher than preferred TB incidence. TB of course ( aka “consumption” ) destroys lungs. Put the two together, like Wihan with its high pollution levels, and it may explain higher levels of mortality from the virus.

          61

    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      “b) What sort of medical conditions were being treated with the antibiotics”

      “Pattern of antibiotic use in primary health care in Italy

      OBJECTIVE:

      The overuse and misuse of antibiotics have been related to the growing emergence of bacterial resistance. The aim of the present study was to assess the pattern of antibiotic use by Italian general practitioners (GPs) in the treatment of the most frequent infectious problems.
      METHODS:

      The study was performed with 131 GPs recruited on a voluntary basis from among the 181 GPs contacted in two Italian regions, Emilia Romagna and Umbria. GPs were requested to report all the infectious events encountered during six sample weeks on a special form, whether an antibiotic was administered or not.
      RESULTS:

      The GPs reported 7095 infectious cases, of which 5036 (77%) were respiratory-tract infections (RTIs) and 749 (11%) were urinary-tract infections (UTIs). Antibiotics were prescribed in 71% of the cases. The proportion of antibiotic-treated cases was highest in UTIs (97%), followed by lower respiratory-tract infections (LRTIs; 93%) and upper respiratory-tract infections (URTIs; 54%)…

      CONCLUSIONS:

      The present survey showed a high level of inappropriate use. In fact, a large number of infectious diseases, including infections commonly caused by viral agents, were treated with an anti-bacterial drug. Italian GPs had a tendency to preferentially prescribe wide-spectrum antibiotics and to use, in many cases, antibiotics that are rarely of choice in primary health care, such as cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones. In

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11009052

      61

      • #

        Oof. The cephalosporins are a bomb. Wide ranging broad spectrum indeed. That is slack.

        Only antibiotic script I ever abandoned half way through. The child got unbearable night time panics, destroying sleep. I tried to talk to the Doc to get an alternative, and report the side effects, she didn’t offer anything and didn’t record any thing either.

        81

    • #
      truth

      I don’t know about antibiotics but Italians are big smokers….Northern Italy which has been the epicentre… is one of the most air-polluted regions of Europe due to industry and unfavorable wind conditions that seem to cause some inversion problems…and TB has been a problem in recent years….denied by some but warned of vociferously by the Italian Deputy PM at the time… and there was an outbreak at a school in the Veneto region in 2018/19….the primary case being a teacher.

      Spain also has a huge air pollution problem…lots of particulate from diesel vehicles and NO2.

      31

  • #
    PeterS

    This video shows very similar experiences to here, except for the violent attacks and police being called. Sure we have a pandemic but the pandemic regardless of how severed or not it is, has also triggered a fear of panic that we haven’t experienced for many decades. If it’s not calmed down we will soon have something more than the virus to fear; fear itself. Fear is the mind killer. The more fear people have the worse their stress levels will be and guess what, their immune system deteriorates.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBi7YHbNdWA

    63

    • #
      tonyb

      Peter

      I wrote an article on this very subject carried at WUWT just a few days ago.

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/15/the-climate-emergency-running-with-the-crowds/

      52

      • #

        Peter and Tony, while I agree with you, there is only one way to stop the fear and that’s to beat this virus.

        If the deaths, disease and suffering were not real, there would be no panic.

        There would be less fear now if people thought the government 1/ had a good plan (it doesnt) and 2/ were honest about it.

        Most of this anxiety is real and also realistic because the government is making a dreadful mistake and is still too slow. Three weeks behind an inanimate code.

        106

        • #
          PeterS

          Yes it would be ideal if we can beat the virus but that’s not a sure thing and it will most likely take a long time. Meanwhile we could have much more serious issues to deal with including more deaths due to other causes. The example of violence in the video is perhaps just a microcosm of much more to come. We just have to wait and see how things pan out.

          If the deaths were not real? They are real but that’s not the point. It’s the continual spread of alarmist talk that’s fuelling the fear monster regardless of the number of deaths, which on the scale of previous pandemics are tiny so far. I hate to imagine what would happen if the deaths escalate out of control to the millions as in previous pandemics.

          Governments did well during the two world wars to avoid panics. We are no where near that sort of level of danger, at least not yet. Yet the fear of panic has exploded, partly due to the build up of anxiety thanks to governments and MSM on the climate change hoax. A pox on both major parties for spreading and supporting the biggest hoax of all time.

          102

          • #

            PeterS — we will beat the virus. that is a sure thing. We just don’t know what the death toll will be…

            IF the government had leveled with people and asked what they wanted, people would have willingly given up the overseas holidays and conferences with a moments notice to keep this virus out of the country. (Look at the Essential survey in Feb).

            Having failed to do the thing that would keep people calm, the govt could have told them they had 4 weeks to stock up, fly home, cancel weddings, and it could coordinate with other countries so we do it together (more effective). And if it had done that we could do the 4 week lockdown and know the end point, have some certainty. PEople are panicking because this swept up like a wave at the last minute because they were kept in the dark with lies or fake news…

            Fear can cause a toll worse that what this virus will, but in this case that’s only because the fear made people take drastic action to avoid a much larger ghastlier toll.

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              PeterS

              If we continue on this road of locking down more and more we will run the risk of killing the patient to cure the disease. The economies of the Western world t least are reliant on small to medium size businesses staying alive. If they close then we are one step closer to a depression. The next step beyond that is big business having to close their doors, including the big banks. Whether it’s a 4-week lock down or 6 months it doesn’t matter. Either way we hit a brick wall with massive unemployment. The patient then dies. I just hope people realise this and stop clamouring for shutting down more and more.

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                el gordo

                The PM said a worse case would be September, but it may happen before then. Everything will be okay because we got onto it before winter and small business will be taken care of, no matter what the cost.

                Its good that the PM pointed out to the newcomers that hoarding is unAustralian, we are a first world nation and have to adapt.

                ‘This elevated mutation rate, when combined with natural selection, allows viruses to quickly adapt to changes in their host environment. In addition, most viruses provide many offspring, so any mutated genes can be passed on to many offspring quickly.’ wiki

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                No. It’s exactly the opposite. The more we lock down now the faster people go back to work. This is standard textbook obvious epidemiology. Self evidently true.

                We isolate areas that are free of the virus and we protect those states. Then they can do domestic travel and work, and allow entrants with a two week quarantine. If my state had closed borders two weeks ago the airlines could be flying inside the state now, holidays could be marketed and weddings would go ahead. The only businesses to suffer would be international tourism based ones and ones that depend on visitors from other states. That is a tiny part of the whole economy.

                The rest of the economy can support those businesses and workers even while suffering a few cuts.

                Since we invited the virus in, the protected areas shrink, the pain is more but the process is the same on a smaller scale. As we clear areas of the virus they go back to normal and small areas connect to other ones. But always we must split everything up and strictly stop movement from infected areas to clean areas.

                We are aiming for the slow bleed at the moment — 6 months of extended drama and pain. Thats the worst option for business and not a great option for people, though it staves off the horror of the Let It RIP approach we were on.

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                Bill In Oz

                Tasmania has done the sensible thing !
                All incoming travellers ( except essential service personnel )
                Must quarantine themselves for 14 days.

                Maybe now that an example has been set, WA, SA NT & ACT
                Will follow suit ?

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                The problem with a lockdown is deciding when to unlock. I can’t see that there is any basis for a short term lockdown given the nature of this virus and long-term is a dangerous thing to be doing.

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                PeterS

                As I keep saying Jo it depends on the lock down and how long. The harsher and longer it is the more deadlier it becomes that the virus itself. Let’s see how well/badly they manage it. I firmly believe we will be OK and by about June all will be well. If it goes much longer than that then we will have serious economic problems well beyond those of the virus.

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      OriginalSteve

      Yes, the MSM is behaving exactly as it did aroung nine eleven, hyping fear to the max. Except this time, it seems the elite are pushing the population hard to see how much they can take and where the mental trigger points are.

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        Alas, the MSM undersold and faked out that this virus “was just the flu” for all of February when it is up to 100 times worse.

        Far from hype, they’ve hidden or just not bothered to research what is happening in China, then Iran, then Italy.

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          joseph

          Speaking of Italy . . . . .

          The link to the Agenzia Nova piece is in the article linked below.

          https://nexusnewsfeed.com/article/jon-rappoport/corona-bologna-italy-the-truth-begins-to-leak-out

          “Grit your teeth and plow through this piece from Rome, 13 March 2020, Agenzia Nova: “Coronavirus: ISS [Italian National Institute of Health]: in Italy there are only two deaths ascertained so far due to Covid-19” (Italian, English)”

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            Deaths in Italy yesterday = 475 attributed to Coronavirus.

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              Environment Skeptic

              Hmm….Jo how on earth can you be certain 475 people died from the ‘C’ in Italy ? Even more bizarre is how on earth does one get reliable information about anything whatsoever that is with respect to the geographical areas called Korea, and China?

              With family in Italy, i am at least qualified to say that none that i know have reported family, or of knowing a local person who has caught the flu, or of someone within a circle of friends who has caught the flu.

              One of my cousins does say the Italian government is the most corrupt government in the world broadly speaking…unhappiness with the government is a very sensitive subject to most Italians in general..

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                Bill In Oz

                ES, How can you be certain there is a government in Italy to be so corrupt ?
                Should we just put all new s from Italy into the uncertain box ?
                And ignore the horrific evidence from the people which has been broadcast worldwide for weeks ?
                I think not !
                Your ideology is blinding you.

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                “how on earth can you be certain”.

                you can’t. For anything. Short of seeing it for yourself and even then you might misinterpret what you are seeing.

                So, instead, we rely on verification and trust.

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                Environement Skeptic

                Umm, ok, i will concede that yes we can be certain a second congressman from Florida tested positive, and there was something about a celebrity …..

                Has anyone visiting Jo’s blog tested positive and perhaps fought the good fight with some tips and advice they could give us??…we would all be so thankful and grateful… Surely at least one here can start the ball rolling and report back right away.

                A Community Corona Blog (CCB) would be good, where sufferers can report their findings and so on. Real people, real anecdotes reflecting the alleged corona battle.

                Maybe you could create a blog Gee, or Bill?

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                Bill In Oz

                I refuse to be a willing sacrifice to your unneeded curiosity mate
                Try that one on someone else in the USA !

                PS We’ve been social distancing and practising isolation for the past 2 weeks

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                Environment Skeptic

                Bill, be sure you let all of us know if and when someone you know has the virus. So far my tally, is zero people who are known to me that have the flu. No local stories yet in my regional newspaper.

                Be sure to share your anecdotes, your surveys, your findings..

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                Gee aye

                It’s hard to know what you need and what you won’t dismiss.

                There are thousands of anecdotes on the web. I have a friend in Montesarchio Italia who has it confirmed. She is quite unwell but stable. Her children and husband have had mild symptoms but are untested. A friend’s work colleague in DFAT just returned from Vietnam and is the third or fourth confirmed case in the ACT. Testing was done following symptoms

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                Environment Skeptic

                Good one. Hope they are one of the 99% that survive the corona/flu and do not have co-morbidity issues and so on.

                Good news indeed. Thanks!

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            OriginalSteve

            Thats odd, as in the past in previous blog topics here recently, i have posted articles from the ISS in Italy who clearly state death was from cov19. Are they ignoring underlying health conditions deaths maybe?

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              joseph

              It is odd. I haven’t been to the ISS site. Do you have any details regarding the doctor referenced in the article?
              I’ve been reading articles about the tests and testing that leave me questioning some of the figures too.

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        PeterS

        As explained before others and myself don’t confuse the evil elite with clueless governments. They are two separate groups with little or no interaction or relationship.

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          joseph

          Peter,

          I’m having some difficulty get my head around that . . . . .
          Maybe you can define what you mean by evil elite.

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            PeterS

            There are good elites and there are evil elites, just as in any other group. Need I say more?

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              joseph

              So, do the good elites have interactions with governments? Maybe I need a definition of what you mean by elites.

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                I’m an elite.

                Does that help?

                What I’d like to know is who is not an elite?

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                PeterS

                Good and bad elites in the private world do not interact much with governments as governments are public and keep changing in the West.

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                PeterS

                What the elite tend to do is take advantage of the situation brought about by government generate pot holes. The good elite dodge the pot holes while the bad elite make the pot holes bigger for others to fall into and trap them.

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                Is this your definition of elite?

                What the elite tend to do is take advantage of the situation brought about by government generate pot holes. The good elite dodge the pot holes while the bad elite make the pot holes bigger for others to fall into and trap them.

                If so it makes no sense and does not help to identify elites.

                So elites take advantage of government pot-holes (whatever they are) except for good elites who dodge the pot-holes, which means they are actually not taking advantage of the pot-hole so are not actually elites. Ergo all elites are bad.

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                please ignore the poor use of quotes

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                Environment Skeptic

                As far as i know, the most elite in the world are those with the power to print vast amounts of money and lend it out to borrowers at their own discretion.

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          Kalm Keith

          Peter,

          I have little doubt that the “elite” have far too much influence over government decisions, government cashflow and government policy at all levels.

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            WXcycles

            You make them sound like the Greens.

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            el gordo

            Laissez-faire capitalism has reached a sticky end, Marx would be impressed. The elite maybe hammered, but the petit bourgeoise will rise again.

            ‘COVID-19 will transform, if not completely kill, globalisation as we have known it. This crisis will enhance the power of national governments.’

            Sheridan/Oz

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      truth

      One of the biggest fear triggers is caginess by government and officials about core issues IMO.

      In a perfunctory way, Chris Kenny asked science Minister Karen Andrews yesterday about supply of ‘respirators’…when it seemed by his phrasing that he meant ventilators.

      The Minister chose to assume he meant respirator masks and hosed him down about their availability…completely dodging what I believed was his real intent…she waxed on about masks and sanitizers.

      Kenny didn’t press the question…so we’re left wondering as usual.

      That creates both fear and suspicion.

      The dereliction of journalists in not bothering to ask that core question begins to look like some sort of pact with government along the lines of …

      ‘Don’t ask about ventilators…we don’t want to have to answer’.

      Only the ventilators will keep people alive when it gets down to the wire…not masks.

      I really want to trust the government but I can’t…not on this or anything else… while they’re cagey and dodgy about this issue.

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      WXcycles

      Fear is a naturally evolved biological function that exists because it has proven to be highly beneficial in causing us to be elsewhere or to do different things. Fear is not bad. I don’t buy into that concept. Fear has saved me or stopped me from making a bad choice many times, it is NET beneficial, especially if I live and don’t suffer an injury or loss.

      Panic however is counterproductive, but that’s an uncontrolled level of fear during a sudden instant transition from unafraid to afraid and the perceived threat is acute. I have walked right up to a taipan or red-belly black snake several times, the panic is instantaneous and reflexive, I move, I change behavior immediately. It also burns out in seconds but even panic can have a very valid basis. It also is not bad, or to be looked down on as sub optimal behavior.

      The biggest problem is fear (and panic) of entirely imaginary or exaggerated things, and in that case it’s the undisciplined imagination that’s at the core of the problem of a resulting overly fearful mind and behaviors, about more-or-less nothing real.

      Being afraid for the right reasons with a clear head and good information is life saving and completely appropriate, it motivates and alters what we do more than anything else to improve our survival and manage a hazard or threat. Fear focuses our strength, it increases our willingness to sacrifice, we feel less pain in the moment, we become much less distracted and we use time to quickly prepare, we’re more willing to fight for survival and help others and we get heightened senses and a sharper mental focus to find useful solutions sooner.

      The negative effects of fear are much overblown when the real problem has always been an over active imagination being stimulated by bad information and assumptions.

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    tonyb

    Latest medical advice-much derided- was that people self isolating need to take indoor exercise. For men over 70 it was recommended that they do 70 push ups daily in several different sessions.

    Can the over 70′s here please report their success in carrying this out? Was it so easy you decided to do 100 or 200?

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      Deplorable Lord Kek

      the over 70s will be coming out of self-isolation buffed.

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      …..need to take indoor exercise. For men over 70 it was recommended that they do 70 push ups daily in several different sessions

      I take outdoor exercise, walking, or as it is more correctly called, Fitness Walking (and a search engine look will explain it) To me, it’s not exercise unless I am actually exerting myself, getting my heart rate up, and breathing heavily, and working as hard as I can.

      I walk 2.2KM five to six mornings a week, and 3.2KM on Saturdays. 19 to 19.5 minutes for the short walk, and 27 minutes for the long walk, so that’s pretty quick, and it all depends on foot speed, and I can average between 135 and 141 paces per minute. (about 8 mins 40 secs per Km)

      I’ve been doing it now for six and a half years and recently clocked up 4500KM. (and I’m on my seventh pair of Brooks Adrenaline GTS joggers)

      I originally started doing it because of a horrendous lower back problem, now resolved completely with walking. I have cut back on my walks now, previously walking five and six kilometres, as since the fitting of my pacemaker, my local family wanted me doing it closer to home, and my route now is such that I am never more than 500 metres from home.

      However, with the onset of this COVID-19, I have seen (probably anecdotal, you can never know for sure) reports that a level of fitness especially with respect to working out of the lungs is a beneficial thing in probably being a good thing if I were to become infected. I turn 69 in four weeks, so I can only hope that report of working the lungs hard has that element of truth.

      As to 70 pushups in several different sessions, that would be more like 35 sessions a day for me I would think, so around a session every 20 minutes or a half hour.

      I’ll stick to walking thank you.

      Tony.

      PostScript – I expired the Adidas joggers I had before starting on the Brooks, and there was one set of Saucony’s in there as well. The Brooks are infinitely more comfortable than both, and the Sauconys soles wore out 100 Km sooner than any of the Brooks. On GTS 20′s now, after starting with GTS 13.

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        Bill In Oz

        Staying fit & healthy Tony !

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        Sceptical Sam

        Interesting, Tony.

        I walk in Brooks. I find them very comfortable.

        I do 6 kilometres per hour for an hour every day. One K every 10 minutes.

        Except Sundays. On Sundays I do 45 minutes.

        I’ve done it for decades. I’m 73.

        Will it all help?

        We”ll see in due course.

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        tonyb

        tonyfrom Oz

        I generally do 10000 steps a day using hiking poles and would do around 25 minutes or so a day of that as a specific power walk. I don’t know my speed over a KM as my 1000 steps are certainly not as long as a metre each.

        I started this around 5 years ago when my pulse rate was sometimes up to 110 (partly only when seeing the doctor as I have ‘white coat’ syndrome.)

        Rather than lifestyle changes he was always keen on prescribing and wanted to put me on a beta blocker. Having researched it I certainly didn’t like its effect so refused.

        My pulse now ranges between 65 and 85 according to circumstances but a usual average being 75. As I sit here quietly typing this it is 72.

        So walking is good and can easily be done anywhere with very little equipment and in this respect is much more likely to be kept up, unlike swimming or going to the gym which requires dedication

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    Having sufficient red thumbs for now, I won’t repeat myself about Event 201, COVID-19, the disguising of the Great Can-Kicking Recession of 2020, Gates, Ardern, globalist creeps generally etc.

    I will however share a simple tip about avoiding infection. Fifty years ago I started popping alfalfa tablets for a reason unrelated to disease. Over time I noticed that they boosted my immunity. Seems alfalfa is one of the most effective alkalisers of the whole system.

    Recently I’ve read where people recommend alkalising just with bi-carb as an immunity booster and it’s become something of a topic. All I can say is that there may be something to it. I’ve stuck with the herbal method, taking at least eight (mix of alfalfa and other grasses) tablets every night and I’ve been known to take a lot more. (Powdered greens are good but tablets sit staring at me on the desk till I take them. Note that I don’t vary from alfalfa with spirulina or chlorella, just with wheat or barley grass, and I do big doses.)

    Like I said, I’ve been taking the remedy since 1970. Can’t say I’ve ever copped an infection except when I’ve fallen off the alkaline wagon.

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      Sapel Mirrup

      Yes, all good therapeutic stuff. I’ve been taking barley grass (bulk powder – 30-50 mL per day depending on need) since 2011 and since then have suffered close to zero seasonal colds. If a perkier virus comes through, some raw garlic and olive leaf extract seems to suffice to knock it on the head.

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      joseph

      I’ve been using bi-carb for a couple of years . . . .

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      greggg

      Alfalfa can worsen autoimmunity, so some people should avoid it.

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    Phil O'Sophical

    Jo, Please watch this and give us your thoughts.

    Could it really be a case of the Emperor’s new clothes?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI&feature=youtu.be

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      Sigh.
      There are so many rational people out there who are not coping with the speed this is moving at. He wants hard numbers and proper diagnoses, don’t we all, but the train is coming, and we have to figure this one out based on imperfect, flawed tests, anecdotes and jigsaw parts.

      China didn’t wreck it’s national economy for a flu. Iran doesn’t dig mass graves by bulldozer. Italy doesnt have doctors and nurses in tears, doesn’t operate in tents, and issue warnings to the world for nothing.

      Spend some time on twitter searching through the feed for Italy or Iran and coronavirus.

      Italy doesn’t run out of hospital beds…

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      Kalm Keith

      Phil,

      That looks like a steady, informed commentator.

      Too much hype leading to confirmation biase.

      This current situation is what we get when the Media runs government and government acquiesces to keep their media image in place ready for the next election.

      KK

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        He looks calm because he hasn’t worked in an Italian ICU ward. It’s an illusion.

        Get closer to the observations from Doctors on the Frontline.

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    el gordo

    Indonesian deaths on the rise.

    ‘Health Ministry official Achmad Yurianto said the country was now in the “acceleration” phase of the disease as 19 people have died so far.’ SMH

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    Tim Spence

    Iceland population 364,260 Infected 247
    India population 1,399,000,000 Infected 152

    It occurs to me that the difference might be that most travellers to Iceland have to pass through an intermediate travel hub while direct flights to India are more readily available. Indicative that international travel hubs are a significant part of the transmission path.

    Also, India is next door to China while Iceland is next door to Greenland (1 active case of infection).

    There are also 21 countries that have just 1 infected person, where the information is available it indicates all have travelled from countries such as Spain, China, The Emirates and UK. These 21 countries have held steady at just 1 infection for 3 weeks or so. (Benin, Mauritania, Guinea, Suriname, Gambia etc.)

    Spain announces record new daily increase of 2,500 new cases.

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      tonyb

      Tim

      Having been to Iceland at this time of year, of necessity residents or visitors will be ensconced in overwarm flats or eating in overwarm restaurants or staying in overwarm hotels, so any viruses are likely to proliferate in those conditions.

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        Tim Spence

        I think my reasoning is wrong anyhow, because surely the sheer number of Indian travellers should surpass the Icelandics that pass through the same airports. But, there’s something in those stats that is alarming.

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      India has a malaria problem, but stopped using chloroquine decades ago because a local malaria strain had become resistant. Other drugs are being used instead. Perhaps these have a similar effect on Covid-19 and could be responsible for the relatively low infection rate?

      I’ve also noticed very few reported cases in Africa. Is this a case of under reporting or is it just not taking hold there either?

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        WXcycles

        We also don’t know which cases are imported or contracted locally. Initial cases are going to be imported and traceable. But for the one detected others will circulate undetected and then the larger local contraction numbers will show, but being an exponential growth with potentially long incubation the first 6 weeks to 2 months will not show much illness. But by end of April early May there will be a very different situation.

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    Rudi K

    Does anyone have a good analysis of the susceptibility to Covid according to age group?
    In the UK there is anecdotal evidence of younger people either being asymptomatic or having sufficiently mild problems to fall “under the testing radar”. This should show up in the age profile of cases. Which would be interesting to see compared with population age profiles. And could give some insight into the possible ultimate penetration of Covid into the community. Likely to be different by country. However, Worldometer just seems to track w/w deaths by age group – not cases by age group – or cases by age group by country.

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    LightningCamel

    An interesting discussion of statistics and countermeasures

    If you feel the need to red thumb me go right ahead, but might I ask that you check your confirmation bias and strawman settings? Otherwise, pay attention or otherwise to what’s there in any way you like.

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      Thx Lightning Camel.

      We know the Coronavirus numerator, (number of deaths, ) but not the denominator, (actual number of cases) but the article states that ” what is certain is that the denominator will grow, and, as it does, the fractional death rate will decline. Which is why Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the architects of the government’s COVID-19 countermeasures, and two equally distinguished colleagues published an editorial in the February 28, 2020, edition of the New England Journal of Medicine in which they opined the following:

      If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.cases)”

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      Wonder why my reply,just a quote from the article is in moderation? (

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      Bill In Oz

      You expect me to take note of a lawyer on COVID 19 ?
      No thanks !

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    Bubbles

    I have been taking plaque nil for 9 years due to an auto immune disease. It could affect your eyesight only if taken over a long period. I have an eye checkup every 6 months. I would have to live to 150 at the dosage I take for Plaquenil to start affecting my health.

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    Red Edward

    If cloroquinine affect zinc uptake (positively), zinc supplements might be a useful thing.

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    Sunni Bakchat

    It appears a recommended daily does of Zinc and a fairly small dose of Quinine (Chloroquine) is effective against Covid-19. It appears to have a stronger anti-viral effect if taken as a prophylactic.

    It also appears effective does of Quinine as an intra-cellular transportation catalyst/agent is less than might be anticipated in Chinese/South Korean Chloroquine only guidelines .

    The research does not directly appear to have taken into account the synergies of Zinc + Quinine. The results may be better than the limited in vitro and in vivo results.

    The essential question now appears to be effective dose of least available substance (for the moment), which is Quinine in its various forms. Longer term, effective synergistic dose is clearly more important.

    The long QT problems appear to be limited to synergies with Anti-retrovirals. Perhaps this problem can be overcome with Potassium and Magnesium supplements. Any cardiolgists on the blog who might know?

    Wondering whether the NSAID issue is overcome by the ionizing effect of Quinine? Any thoughts on this dimension anyone?

    Lastly Zinc Gluconate has long been known as a basic oral anti-viral in the upper digestive tract. It is sold as a lozenge under the brand name Cold-eeze in the United States.

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    Mikehig

    Jo,

    Firstly, thanks for giving us the hard facts on this issue.

    I expect you have seen the post on WUWT where Willis E analyses the data from the Diamond Princess? Provided the data are reasonably accurate, they show that 83% did not contract the disease, despite being stranded under incubator conditions for weeks. The 17% that did test positive included those who were asymptomatic.
    What are your thoughts and comments, please?
    It seems to contradict the received wisdom about infectivity, etc.

    On the theme of the effect of anti-malarials, is it possible that these drugs could have influenced the Diamond Princess outcome?
    Given the general area the ship was due to cruise in, it seems likely that many of those onboard would have been taking anti-malarials.
    It would be interesting to see if there is a common factor in the medical backgrounds of the passengers and crew which could have influenced their susceptibility.

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      tonyb

      That’s an interesting comment. Yes, I saw His post.

      I don’t know what countries were being visited or whether malaria is endemic there and consequently whether or not people had been routinely vaccinated.

      Hopefully someone here has access to that information.

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        tonyb

        Mike

        “On the theme of the effect of anti-malarials, is it possible that these drugs could have influenced the Diamond Princess outcome?”

        I did some research on the subject following your post

        Malaria is found in more than 100 countries, mainly in tropical regions of the world, including:
        large areas of Africa and Asia.
        Central and South America.
        Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
        parts of the Middle East.
        some Pacific islands

        When the Diamond Princess left the port of Yokohama in Japan on January 20, the 2,666 passengers on board were ready to enjoy a trip to China, Vietnam and Taiwan.

        I Looked at the UK NHS web site
        https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/malaria

        and also specific advice for travellers to the area

        Taiwan would seem to be free of malaria but have other infection possibilities. Both China and Vietnam have Malaria and numerous other dangers . Reading the advice from the Diamond Princess operators and the medical authorities, vaccinations are suggested or required, together with taking anti malarial tablets including Chloroquine.

        Bearing in mind the age group and likely health issues of many of the passengers and mandatory requirements and Insurance demands I would be amazed if anti malarial type precautions were not required for EVERY passenger. Whether that applies to crew members I can’t say.

        So that could explain why the entire complement on the ship didn’t come down with Covid 19 if indeed, as is being suggested, anti malarial drugs have some impact on it

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      I answered this to someone else above, not knowing it started with Willis. No I havn’t read it.

      Oh contraire — 1 infection became 700 in just four weeks

      The cruise ship Diamond Princess set off from Yokohama on January 20, with about 3,700 passengers and crew. On Jan 23 a man got sick and left the boat in HK on Jan 25th. It took four weeks to infect 20% of the ship and half that time was spent under quarantine conditions.

      Call the ship an incubator if you want, but they were trying to avoid spreading it and they knew it was there. They stuffed up, but it says a lot about the infectiousness.

      They tested everyone on board. There was no widespread undetected asymptomatic spread (unless the tests were flawed, which is possible). If the tests were right it really was a 1% fatality rate and 14 are still serious/critical weeks later.
      Their rate is the same as South Korea and rates in China outside Wuhan.

      Smells like 0.5-1%. Looks like 0.5 -. …

      But as I showed yesterday that rises 5 – 10 fold if you lose control of hospitals which Italy and Iran have.

      This is a bugger of a germ, and our hospitals and docs will be making horrible choices in a few weeks too if we don;t slow it down.

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        OriginalSteve

        Jo, usa hospitals to be “drowning” by 23 rd of this month in cases. This is from the guy who was head of medicaid under obama.

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      Rolf

      And today there were 16 ! new cases in that group. Reinfection / to early marked as recovered, or very long incubation ??

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    Mikehig

    Tonyb; thanks for digging up that info.
    It’s hard to see how to get more detail to see if there might have been some prophylactic effect from anti-malarials. Thinking out loud… ….the cruise line is bound to have the contact details of all the passengers, as is the Japanese health authority that handled the quarantine. Either could contact each passenger with a simple e-mail questionnaire with a brief checklist of medications to be ticked, if used. It would be very good PR for either of them if they were able to find a pointer which led to an effective treatment option.
    I am sure you are right about insurance requirements. Furthermore it’s my impression that many cruise-line customers are “serial cruisers” who could be expected to have all of their jabs and immunisations up to date.

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      Mikehig, there might be discussion boards or forums the passengers frequent and we could just ask there? Some had youtube channels…

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      Mike

      Yes, it would be relatively simple for the Health authority to utilise the cruise co passenger list which must be quite comprehensive. It may be that that the passengers had to confirm to the cruise co that they were fully up to date in appropriate measures before they were allowed to finalise their booking.in that case the information may be lying on someone’s computer..

      If not it would be a simple matter to email each passenger with a brief checklist but then you have to rely on the patient replying and it might be weeks before enough data could be collated.

      It’s worth taking this line of thought forward.

      Jo do you have any contacts? if not and no one else here has the data I would be happy to do a bit of digging

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        Passenger list will be guarded (rightly) and now split into many countries. All I want for now is just a guesstimate from people on those trips — how often do people take chloroquine as a preventative on a Jan cruise in SE Asia?

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          Rolf

          More likely they drink Gin and Tonic :-)

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          Sunni Bakchat

          Checked with friends and family who regularly cruise in the tropics on medication protocols. Response was;

          Ships don’t offer Chloroquine or any other medication over the counter other than what you might obtain at your local pharmacy. There is a doctor onboard who can prescribe from an onboard dispensary.

          Seems as though every cruise passenger on reputable first world cruises is required to fill in a disclosure form with regard to amongst other things, the medication currently being taken. This medication is handed to a ship’s officer on a mandatory basis at the commencement of the cruise and administered under supervision daily. Disclosure forms also require the usual information on pre-existing conditions, etc.

          Most of the people i spoke with went to a travel doctor before departing. They spoke of updating their vaccinations but none spoke of quinine based drugs.

          Interestingly as well, several women spoke of HRT medication as being the “only drugs they took”. HRT medication formulations often includes Zinc supplementation which may be relevant in mortality calculation. Especially if the individual is fond of the odd G&T.

          Given the locus of control on ships, surely a medical officer from same must have accurate numbers.

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            Checked with my parents who did the cruise from HK to Japan 6 months ago. (Winter up there). No anti malarials were needed or thought of.

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          Sunni Bakchat

          The Chief Medical Officer for Princess Cruise Lines, Dr. Grant Tarling is on Linkedin – https://www.linkedin.com/in/grant-tarling

          Perhaps another person on this blog who is also registered with Linkedin could ask for the numbers of passengers who declared Chloroquine (or similar) as a drug they were taking in their pre-boarding disclosure form.

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    cedarhill

    Get a grip.

    One should demand (shout it out!!) that you must compare apples to apples.
    They’re lying about comparing the seasonal flu and the Wu-Wu virus. True comparison using the fear promoters “confirmed” cases and “confirmed: deaths:
    A. Seasonal flu confirmed cases 220,000; confirmed deaths from seasonal flu 20,000
    B. Wuhan cold confirmed cases 200,000; confirmed deaths from Wuhan cold 8,000
    Do the comparison math. The seasonal flu, measured in the same way as the panic figures, is a far more lethal killer. Especially in those countries not blessed with huge elder populations (Italy), bad economies (Italy as part of the PIGS), national health care (Italy) and a huge number of smokers (Italy), etc.

    Plus:
    1. Studies being reported today that 6 in 7 infected with Wuhan go undetected.
    2. NIH is reporting a study that Wuhan stays infectious: in the air for hours and on surfaces (including cardboard) for days.
    3. The cruise ships, the ideal breeding ground to spread contagion, only had about a 100% exposure rate but only 20% tested positive and only 0.2% deaths noting about half of them in the “nearly dead anyway” elder demographic.
    4. Many reporting that the Wuhan will be “with us” for a year and a half
    5. Treatments will arrive far faster than any effect of quarantines: https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/australia-lab-to-human-test-reputed-covid-19-cure/
    6. New studies claim up to 86% of infections are asymptomatic.

    Which means face some actual realities:
    a. Quarantines mostly too little, too late and inadequate under most circumstances. But as the saying goes, if the only thing you have is a hammer . .
    b. Building hospitals. Another hammer saying. If serious, devote the billions to making and distribution equipment, such as ventilators and beds and such. You already have huge, nearly infinite spaces using closed schools, close auditoriums, closed sporting arenas, closed public buildings, etc. Do what you did in WWI, use what you have, get what you need and you certainly don’t need buildings.
    c. Stress treatment. Use quinine as reports are now coming out about it’s effectiveness. Doctors simply won’t help. Most of testing can be done by briefly trained non-professionals. Nurses and helpers can run ventilators. Most people can give themselves shots and even more can swallow and take a pill.
    d. Flattening the curve is just to allow the limited number of doctors to do their ritual of looking at a test, proclaiming the obvious, tsk-tsking and ordering folks to do the obvious which simply allows the virus to be able to develop newer, and possible better, human infectious strains.

    During panics:
    1. People forcing kids to drink bleach
    2. Groups drinking cow urine as protective
    3. Panic buying
    4. Markets crashing, professional investors making billions
    5. People buying guns to protect against the infected zombies
    6. Supermarkets rationing amid riot fears
    And more. Too many to catalog.
    7. Once it starts, there’s no stopping it until the panic runs it’s course
    8. The effect of a panic can linger for years.
    9. Governments refuse catching criminals (as in Philadelphia today)
    10.Huge, even stupendous, deficit spending on “helping” welfare payments which enslave future generations or will collapse the world economies
    11. Panics start world depressions and mass starvations.

    The solution is to fix our collective lifestyles. Whole food diets, exercise, reduce stress, quit all forms of smoking, good sleep and do some fasting. Then, and only then, focus on solutions to diseases as we age. Death from virus is yet another Elder Killer Epidemic due to immune systems that are destroyed/not working very well due to the above.

    Then spend funds for treating the virus that do emerge by faster detection especially international borders, faster treatment protocols with anti-virus drups (like the quinine that has emerged) and faster development of vaccines using “stem” vaccines for each strain.

    Just like all prior modern pandemics, this one will end when vaccines are handed out. Lobby for that and quit adding to the panic.

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      PeterS

      Lots of good comments. Reducing stress is a key component of the road back to recovery. We can’t do that while people are panicking thanks to the MSM and others telling governments to shut down everything. If we shut down everything we kill the patient to cure the disease.

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        Indeed: Let’s “Get a grip”. The global economy is a debt laden house of cards far out on historic scales and due to collapse for the last 15 years.

        The virus is the trigger, but the crash was coming anyway.

        Don’t blame the virus (that’s what the Fed Reserve wants you to do isn’t it?)

        People keep waving Flu Stats like they are sacks of garlic to ward off the vampires.

        No one ever replies with numbers when I point out:

        1. Ro is 2 x higher
        2. Potential victims are 5 – 10 x higher
        3. Vaccines = 0
        4. Immune people = 0
        5. Death rates go up by 10 fold when hospitals overflow from 0.5% –> 5% fatality. Do we like grandparents or not?

        Humans are remarkably good at finding reasons to rationalize what they want to find and ignore what they don’t want to see. But just make sure you protect yourself OK? I don’t want to lose you!

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          PeterS

          I mentioned some time ago the markets were overdue for a severe correct/crash whatever you want to call it. The virus was just the last straw. If it wasn’t for the virus it would have been something else. I firmly believe we will be OK by June or soon after. Don’t stress. I’m just annoyed at the way so many are behaving at the shops. It’s pure greed and selfishness on the part of most who are panic buying. I’ve see shopping trolleys full of milk, bred and meat. Such selfishness is now stopped by the main chains introducing limits. They should have done it over a week ago when the signs were clear.

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          Meglort

          Jo, and I suspect that if we just ‘let it rip’ like we do with the flu every year nobody would think of making that inane comparison anymore.

          Wuhan has a yearly flu season, which doesn’t require crematoriums running 24×7, destroying the economy and requiring an additional 49 mobile incinerators being shipped in to clear the body count.

          There are none so blind…

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      Yep. This particular coronavirus, whether accidental or confected, is a pea-shooter, and is probably meant to be for purposes of easy control and deception. The lethality and our redemption by some hero vaccine can be fiddled like the knobs on a GameBoy. (Anyone reminded of climate “science”?) Services can be more easily overloaded by panic than by real disease such as that of 1918-19. And overload of services is part of the plan.

      It’s too late now. The “flooding of the zone” as planned and outlined by the last October’s drill is so complete and inescapable that the real crisis, the long-due economic meltdown, has been wiped from the public mind. The new madness of shutdown looks like going ahead, which indicates that the globsters are aiming up with this one. (Hmmm, I wonder where they might find some unemployed, disaffected military age males for a bit of enforcement…)

      Against the full weight of all media which will talk of nothing else we can do little. A neighbour last night was telling me that she is aware of the remoteness of the threat and tiny numbers of deaths but we nonetheless have to face that “this is the way the world is going”. Which means nothing, of course, and yet it means everything.

      Real flu is extra dangerous in times of stress and reduced services. We need to do everything to stay healthy, and much can be done just with fresh air, good food and moderate but regular exercise.

      Autumn has arrived very sharply around here. Remember that eastern Australia is the dustmite capital of the universe. Shake, air, wash, or expose all clothing before wearing. Many respiratory problems occur in autumn because people don’t realise that clean stored clothing can be napalm in these parts.

      Doubt. Defend. The climate beat-up and massive waste of renewables should have taught us that the worst people are in control. Why would they stop at one gigantic fib?

      Doubt and defend.

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        Bill In Oz

        Momosomo, the Greenists are blinded to the facts by their ideology.
        But now your ideology is blinding you to the facts on this new disease…

        Me I don’t have an ideology to blind me.
        That makes seeing the facts pretty easy.

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          Greenists? Not Liberals and Nats?

          I was thinking of the great bulk of media (left/right), administration, politics, corporate business, publish-or-perish academia…and government, of course.

          Yeah, those guys. The ones who have been fibbing round the clock and flushing trillions on green boondoggles.

          But all the usual fibbers and plunderers are suddenly going to break into truth?

          Jerk the other one.

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        I should add a bit more info on dustmites not as an authority but as an extreme sufferer. This is really important for people who are breaking out blankets etc for the season.

        I used to go through hell as a kid in the autumn with respiratory problems which mysteriously subsided by mid-winter. I was given drugs (including one I should never have been given) and much allergy testing. The problem was, as so often with “testing”, that the one really important thing was confounded with all sorts of irrelevancies. To the drugs was added much useless fuss. People’s helpfulness was wonderful but their understanding was limited and I was too young to sort things out myself. It was the simple extra blanket and stored pullover which was doing the damage, but nobody knew.

        I was helped by an old-style physio who gave me exercises to harden my diaphragm. This was an art which may now be forgotten, but it really worked to avert the respiratory problems. The severe allergies remained, however.

        As I got older I worked it out. My one and only allergy was always dustmites. Eastern Oz is the capital, as mentioned above. Dustmites have little to do with dust. The enemy can be all around me, in carpet, clothes or bedding, but it can have no effect until disturbed, then…look out!

        You see, the Euro tradition of beating garments etc in spring is all wrong for here. I’ve been in Europe and loved being able to just toss a stored blanket on a bed without ill effect. Here in eastern Oz a stored blanket is napalm. This can’t be stressed enough.

        Many respiratory problems can be averted by NEVER using clean, stored fabrics without exposing or wetting. No need for exotic treatments, just disturb the mites away from your body, in wind, sun or water. If in a hurry, put on a mask and beat and shake the tripe out of the fabric. We are living here on a bomb called dustmites.

        In eastern Oz, do spring in autumn. A bit like moso bamboo, actually.

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        tonyb

        mosomoso

        Yes, we need to do everything to stay healthy if the medical services are likely to be put under pressure.

        So scaling down on more risky activities might be useful. Do you need to beat your last fast time if a cyclist. Why not Turn on that landing light when using stairs. (stairs are a major cause of injury)

        Use gardening gloves if digging in the garden and immediately treat any cuts. Perhaps sawing up those logs with a chainsaw might be better left for another time?

        As far as possible we must carry on as normal but we need to have a better eye for possible risks

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        Meglort

        mosomoso, the interesting thing in this is that if the virus was just the trigger then I would expect that modelling showed (validated by Event 201) that the R0 and lethality had an optimal range and combination that statistically achieved the kinetic effect sought.

        If the goal was social order de-construction more than high maintenance population reduction it certainly achieved its aims, now. Likely advanced nations have healthcare that when borders are closed it can be contained without too much local carnage to trigger social unrest. The WEF was the kick-off party.

        Some online sources state that there is little lineage between key strains as deployed.
        Perhaps we have Easy, Medium, Hard variants. Hardcore mode was left on the shelf, depending.

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          When there are “events” involving right wingers, loners, persons of middle eastern appearance, guns, trucks, whale tusks etc it is only the staged ones, the drills sent live, which get massive coverage and political response. Any genuine incidents are let slide as too wild to handle. While the staged events are invariably clumsy and unconvincing without the media “flooding the zone”, they can nonetheless be controlled from start to finish. The controllers can even just get a crowd to run around in an unused Walmart without even having to worry about fake blood or posed victims. Roll out some yellow tape and that’s it!

          It’s the same with diseases. War and sanctions have turned whole countries into petri dishes for heirloom bugs and nobody cares. It doesn’t have to lead just because it bleeds, not now that the media are as centralised as any North Korean bureaucracy. How many people know that TB is killing one and a half million a year (splitting the diff between WHO and IHME figures)?

          You can do more with flu if you are wanting to run the worlds’ biggest hoax…and oh how they are doing it. A flu strain is always available, it can be confounded easily with any number of death factors, and it can be reported as moving at any speed they like anywhere they like. And a jab from Bill’s mates can stop it. (Give that man a Nobel…and not one of those Oslo Emmies but a proper Swedish one, for medicine or something!)

          The common enemy of mankind is thinking of adding social and economic shutdown to a planned, inevitable global financial collapse which has nothing to do with any virus and everything to do with…global finance! And it wants thanks!

          (Yes, I know I’m losing friends rapidly here. But nothing stinks like consensus, right?)

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            Bill In Oz

            Not much consensus here Momosomo
            Unfortunately !

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            Meglort

            All we can do is make judgements on the evidence we are presented with, and consider that evidence based on our own frames of reference, beliefs and prejudices.

            It absolutely could be that this is an elaborate global hoax.
            I am sure it is not the first should it actually be so.

            Personally I believe there are payloads, none of which are natural, but regardless of that, operating as if there is a threat does not endanger others should I believe otherwise and be wrong.

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    dinn, rob

    many lessons for mankind, here’s a few more–
    https://aumladder.blogspot.com/2020/03/progress-against-cov-19.html

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    PeterS

    We are risking a massive global depression with a massive rise in unemployment if we lock down too savagely. A lot more people would starve to death before they ever get the virus. Hundreds of millions more, perhaps over a billion deaths. If that’s what people want to risk then go for it. It’s what the extreme left always wanted. Now they have the chance to get it if we are not careful. The lock downs are simply happening too fast and too severe. The breaks are applied too hard and the car might be about to get out of control and go over the cliff killing all occupants. Time to ease up a little on the breaks. Those are the risks we are all taking.

    I personally have a little clue as to the right amount of pressure on the breaks since I can’t see clearly ahead of me. I wish I could. I would need a crystal ball to do that, or be a prophet of God. I hate to be the PM making these decisions. I have a lot of sympathy for him. Perhaps he is getting instructions from God with his prayers. God Almighty please guide him for all our sakes. Amen.

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    robert rosicka

    While we are debating anti virals and malaria meds it seems the do nothing approach of herd immunity has raised the ire of scientists .

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/what-is-herd-immunity-and-could-it-stop-coronavirus/12059968

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    Clyde Spencer

    Plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine sulfate) is only available by prescription in the US. The reason is that there is a long list of known side-effects, some of which can be pretty ugly. Most people tolerate it well, and even those who don’t, make the trade-off of preventing malaria worth the side-effects. I imagine the same would be true in using Plaquenil as a treatment for COVID-19, IF it is shown to be effective.

    I was prescribed Plaquenil for osteoarthritis in my thumbs. My rheumatologist was concerned about a change in my color vision over time, so had me tested before starting, to establish a baseline. Unexpectedly, my systolic blood pressure went from about 130 to 160 within about a week after starting it. I also started having problems with pain and weakness in my legs. I finally convinced my rheumatologist that I was having adverse reactions, despite them not being on the long list. My systolic pressure started coming back down almost immediately after stopping and is now in the range of 120-130, typically. My legs have been slower to respond. It took over a year before I stopped limping and could walk normally. I still cannot squat without pain, and regularly use a topical pain killer for my knees (diclofenac). So, chloroquine may not be the cure-all that some are suggesting. It may be less risky for short-term use, but one should be aware that it is not without risks. Results may differ, but be aware that there may be complications.

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    kevin a

    https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-07/02/content_344755.htm

    Officials punished for SARS virus leak 2004-07-02
    Five top officials of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Thursday were punished to take blame for this year’s outbreak of SARS.
    outbreak which started with the infection of two laboratory researchers by the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) virus, Vice-Premier Wu Yi said Thursday at a working conference.
    The cases had been linked to experiments using live and inactive SARS corona virus in the CDC’s virology and diarrhea institutes where interdisciplinary research on the SARS virus was conducted

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    Another Ian

    A maybe

    “Medical authorities in China have said a drug used in Japan to treat new strains of influenza appeared to be effective in coronavirus patients, Japanese media said on Wednesday.”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/03/18/wuhan-flu-7/

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    Bill In Oz

    Hi Jo this article is interesting !
    Melatonin inhibits the ability of th virus to reproduce in the body.
    Hence the immunity of children to this virus
    https://www.evolutamente.it/covid-19-pneumonia-inflammasomes-the-melatonin-connection/

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      Bill In Oz

      Melatonin is a natural hormone produced in the body in large amounts when we are young, with NO adverse effects
      But natural body production declines as we age with serious adverse effects ( Such as ageing itself ! ) .

      In Australia melatonin is usually available on prescription which restricts it’s availability as a supplement.
      But other countries such as the USA, take a different perspective and allow it to be sold over the counter or by mail order.

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    TedM

    According to the Dept of defence chloroqine is no longer available in Australia.

    https://www.defence.gov.au/Health/HealthPortal/Malaria/Anti-malarial_medications/Chloroquine/default.asp

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    Deplorable Lord Kek

    Scientists glimpse sign of COVID-19 weakening

    A team of Singapore-based scientists has uncovered the first glimmer of hope that the COVID-19 virus could be mutating into a less virulent strain after discovering key protein suspected to affect the virus’s transmission and severity has disappeared in some patients.

    In an academic paper, still under peer review but provided to The Australian, the Duke National University of Singapore team reported the protein “deletion” discovered in eight Singapore ­patients between February 9 and March 2 was consistent with those found at the tail end of the 2003 SARS outbreak, and could signal a weakening of the disease.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/scientists-glimpse-sign-of-covid19-weakening/news-story/aab63dae1ff6ee9a0cbad053d9943965

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    Sunni Bakchat

    Remdesivir showing promise. From London Telegraph newspaper today;

    “Hopes that the experimental drug remdesivir could cure patients of coronavirus were raised after a 79-year-old Italian man who had tested positive was given the all-clear following treatment.
    The broad-spectrum antiviral was developed by US drug firm Gilead for Ebola and was used to treat the Scottish nurse Pauline Cafferkey when she suffered a relapse 18 months after being cleared of the disease which she contracted while volunteering in Sierra Leone.
    Currently remdesivir is being tested in five Covid-19 clinical trials including by the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) on 13 patients hospitalised after contracting coronavirus on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.
    The first person to test positive with the virus in the US was also treated with drug and has since fully recovered.
    A case report in the New England Journal of Medicine said the man began to feel better within one day of being treated with intravenous remdesivir.
    On Tuesday evening, the President of Italy’s Liguria region Giovanni Toti said the area had seen ‘the first real case of coronavirus cured’, a 79-year-old man who was treated with remdesivir. He is due to return to his home in Lombardy soon.
    Bruce Aylward of the World Health Organization said last month: “There’s only one drug right now that we think may have real efficacy. And that’s remdesivir.”

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    Ross

    It is not all bad news.

    Try these interesting snippets

    https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-researcher-in-Marseille-posts-successful-Covid-19-coronavirus-drug-trial-results

    How about some good newsroom
    -China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.

    - Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.

    - Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.

    - A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.

    - Apple reopens all 42 china stores,

    - Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.

    - Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.

    - Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.

    - Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.

    - 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.

    - A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.

    - A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.

    - Tulsa County’s first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.

    - All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.

    - Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.

    So it’s not all bad news. Let’s care for each other and stay focused on safety of those most vulnerable.

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    BC

    A coronavirus vaccine began being tested on humans this week:
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/16/ap-seattle-researchers-test-first-coronavirus-vaccine/
    They’ve skipped animal testing and gone straight to human tests.

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    thingadonta

    Many Medications for high blood pressure may make people more vulnerable, not just the high blood pressure itself, although the full results are not yet known. Some studies suggest these medications enhance aspects of the cell which the virus uses to attack the cell. However because the studies are as yet inconclusive they aren’t yet recommending people stop using them.

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    Analitik

    I wonder why it has taken this long for anti-virals and anti-HIV drugs to be reported by the local MSM?

    There was a report from Thailand back in early February about success in treating Covid-19 cases with these
    Cocktail of flu, HIV drugs appears to help fight coronavirus: Thai doctors

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      Deplorable Lord Kek

      “I wonder why it has taken this long for anti-virals and anti-HIV drugs to be reported by the local MSM?”

      Fear is good for business, apparently.

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    TedM

    US reports a significant number of young people who contract covid-19 become seriously ill. May be because a large number of undetected cases skews the data.

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    Deplorable Lord Kek

    My last two posts have gone straight into moderation.

    Am I am now in moderation hell?

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      Deplorable Lord Kek

      Apparently not.

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        Analitik

        Links often seem to trigger the moderation engine – I had a post put into moderation where I linked to another comment post (the one in the date/time tag) in the same page!!

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    Another Ian

    Just back from a stint in the paddock.

    A sure sign of quarantining success will be when the bush flies start staying away from noses, eyes and mouths.

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    TdeF

    Just reported in the Australian..

    “Scientists at Oxford University say they have made a breakthrough in coronavirus testing that dramatically reduces testing time and can detect the virus earlier.

    The scientists from the university’s Engineering Science department and the Oxford Suzhou Centre for Advanced Research say the new test for COVID-19 can give an accurate result in half an hour.

    They say they are developing “an integrated device” so that the tests can be used at clinics, airports, or even at home.”

    If there was a cheap, fast test which could be administered on the spot without a laboratory, many factories and groups could get back to work. Even doctors and nurses. People could be freed from quarantine. People trapped overseas could get home.

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      TdeF

      Better still, carriers could be identified and isolated while they are few in number! Uncertainty is the real problem. Isolation could be less restrictive if people could be checked.

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        PeterS

        I’ve been saying that for some time but it falls on death ears. We need more test kits and the government needs to spend billions if necessary to get their hands on as many as possible and/or make them locally.

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          TdeF

          Yes, but the ‘testing kits’ are sampling kits and the samples have to go to a laboratory. This was taking four days, even for the US President. The process is very complex, involving many steps breaking up the DNA with heat and trying to identify specific sequences. This announcement is the Holy Grail, an on the spot test which takes under half an hour.

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    PeterS

    Israeli scientists: “In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine”
    They say once the vaccine is developed, it will take at least 90 days to complete the regulatory process and potentially more to enter the marketplace.

    The reason it will be made available so quickly is they have been using a different approach. For years they have been researching a generic form of vaccine to cover a number of viruses and have already been conducting some trials for some time. Let’s hope it all works out for them.

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      TdeF

      There are many different ways to cripple a virus. The ideas and trick are known and there are scores of laboratories in this race and hopefully one of them will get it right, but it all take time. Weeks at every step and nothing you can do to speed it up. Even where human clinical trials have begun they are advising a year for mass production. And it will be the most important people first, politicians.

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    Mark D.

    The Governor of Minnesota today said that there are over 1000 patient samples frozen because there aren’t enough test kits. Mostly in Minnesota the large metro areas are where COVID19 has been found. However since testing is not even being done for the majority of the geographical State, how do we know how wide spread this is?

    Or maybe they DON’T WANT us to know how widespread it ISN’T!

    I’m beginning to wonder

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    • #
      Mark D.

      As I sit here watching my retirement money fade away, watch food and essentials get scarce, ponder that my favorite places to consult like minds; pubs, restaurants, barber shops and churches are shuttered. Begin to realize that a decent militia would HAVE to be more than 10 people and now banned from gathering……..

      I’m beginning to have a growing uneasy feeling.

      A feeling something like I imagine a mouse feels when it rambles into that mechanical tunnel. You know, the one that smells of cheese…….

      Could the bastards I’ve hated all my life be smart enough? Bold enough?

      72

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Yep, if it looks like a COVID19, flys like a COVID19 and vomits like one, then it Must be a COVID19.

      KK

      http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/antiviral-drugs-antimalarials-and-anti-hiv-may-be-useful/#comment-2294201

      11

  • #

    This mother of all fiddles goes well beyond money, but it’s worth remembering what bodies like WHO really are. “Controversial” epidemiologist Dr. Tom Jefferson said when interviewed by Spiegel a few years back:

    “…one of the extraordinary features of this influenza — and the whole influenza saga — is that there are some people who make predictions year after year, and they get worse and worse. None of them so far have come about, and these people are still there making these predictions. For example, what happened with the bird flu, which was supposed to kill us all? Nothing. But that doesn’t stop these people from always making their predictions. Sometimes you get the feeling that there is a whole industry almost waiting for a pandemic to occur.

    SPIEGEL: Who do you mean? The World Health Organization (WHO)?

    Jefferson: The WHO and public health officials, virologists and the pharmaceutical companies. They’ve built this machine around the impending pandemic. And there’s a lot of money involved, and influence, and careers, and entire institutions! And all it took was one of these influenza viruses to mutate to start the machine grinding.”

    And further:

    “Don’t you think there’s something noteworthy about the fact that the WHO has changed its definition of pandemic? The old definition was a new virus, which went around quickly, for which you didn’t have immunity, and which created a high morbidity and mortality rate. Now the last two have been dropped, and that’s how swine flu has been categorized as a pandemic.”

    Then there’s the likes of CDC and FEMA. They’ve got millions to play with and all of a well-paid day to fiddle with words and finesse the data. We should know their ilk from the climate beat-up.

    We should, I said.

    81

    • #
      Analitik

      So why did the WHO tell the world that quarantining travel to/from China was “not helpful” and continually stated that Covid-19 was not a pandemic right up until the infection count outside China exceeded the (stated) number within?

      21

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Obvious ! WHO boss is a mate of the Chinese Communist Party
        Who’s home country has huge debts to China !

        This is common knowledge Analitik !

        42

      • #
        Meglort

        They wanted it to spread, is the only conclusion that can be drawn.

        03

  • #
  • #
    Dennis

    Peter Dutton has asked Australians to photograph the buses and number plates of “tourists” who are stopping at country town supermarkets to raid for supplies, he said it is intolerable.

    At Michael Smith News the following comment was posted;

    seeker of truth said…
    Further to my post about the Chinese shoppers descending on regional supermarkets,
    I wonder how Jessica Rudd’s daigou enterprise is fairing in this panic buying in Aussie supermarkets. Though she no longer owns Jessica’s Suitcase, she has shares in the company that purchased it.

    Jeeica Rudd is the founder of Jessica’s Suitcase and non executive director of eCargo Enterprises, both of which are now divisions of the giant Chinese company Alibaba -

    https://stockhead.com.au/tech/jessica-rudd-packs-her-suitcase-sells-up-to-a-chinese-ecommerce-play/

    https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/ecargo-appoints-new-ceo-after-buying-jessicas-suitcase-20180313-h0xed3

    From a 2017 article -

    “…..The five-year-old daigou business model is also evolving. Rather than buying products in Australia and transporting them over, a new breed of shopper-sellers now base themselves in China, where they can engage with customers more easily.

    These intermediaries, now known as “WeShang” shoppers, or “social media-driven business”, then send instructions to all-in-one “pack-and-send” offices in Australia for delivery.”

    The daigou and WeShang formats still operate in Australia and maybe are working as agents for Alibaba under its business models. The “pack-and-send” offices have now repackaged themselves with a different type of shopfront -

    This was reported on news.com.au on 26 Feb 2020 -

    ‘Massive boom in personal shopping ‘gift shops’ sees thousands emerge across Australia’

    “A new type of shop, with blacked-out windows and a seemingly strange collection of goods inside, has emerged in Aussie suburbs.

    Along just 200m of a bustling shopping strip in Sydney, five similar-looking shops with covered-up windows have popped up in recent months.

    Unless you speak Mandarin, it would be hard to tell what the stores, found along Kingsford’s Anzac Parade, are selling from the outside.

    They have emerged over the past few months as part of a major shift in the suburb’s demographic over several decades, which has seen its traditional Greek and Aussie population decline.

    And with the University of New South Wales down the road, thousands of Chinese students now call Kingsford home. That’s almost 30 per cent of the suburb’s population, according to the latest census….

    Lined up against the walls, there are large stacks of popular brand name baby formula tins and piles of empty mailboxes alongside them.

    Jamie Yi, who works at one of the stores called Easy Go, told news.com.au the range of goods on display in the shop are on sale to the public, but the majority of what they sell goes directly to China.

    “People in China can probably find this stuff online, but what they find is that when they pay for it, it’s fake sometimes,” she said.

    The shop also sells the products to Chinese students who resell the products through social media sites such as WeChat and Weibo and through online shopping sites.

    This has opened up a major money-making opportunity for the 1.4 million Chinese students studying in Australia as they look to sell high-quality health products to their homeland.

    While the process – known as daigou shopping – has been around in Australia since 2008, the numbers of physical stores, such as those emerging in Kingsford, have exploded over the past two years….”

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/massive-boom-in-personal-shopping-gift-shops-sees-thousands-emerge-across-australia/news-story/65320aacf81cfa60e28582cbc473ee71

    Just who is behind these “Easy Go” stores?

    Go get them Peter Dutton. In this crisis, no food items should be air freighted to China. Profiteering is out, daigous are out. These small business enterprises by Chinese students are out and when they come back into operation, they should be taxed.

    I’ve had enough of being used by Chinese “Johnnie-come-latelys”, be they individuals or companies.

    [ a tad long which is why it ended up in moderation . ] AD

    10

  • #
    WXcycles

    I created a subset of countries with complete and less problematic data, from the Top-20 most infected countries today, to get a better sense of the underlying trend:

    TOP-20 SUBSET – MARCH 18TH 2020 – Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    INCLUDED COUNTRIES: (% Died)

    Italy 8.34% Died
    Spain 4.32% Died
    France 2.89% Died
    UK 3.96% Died
    Netherlands 2.83% Died
    Austria 0.24% Died
    Norway 0.38% Died
    Belgium 0.94% Died
    Sweden 0.77% Died
    Denmark 0.38% Died
    Japan 3.32% Died

    EXCLUDED COUNTRIES: (reason)

    China (questionable numbers & def.)
    Iran (not reporting critical)
    Germany (anom. or inconsist. numbers, possibly age related)
    USA (anom. numbers due lack of testing)
    S. Korea (anom. or inconsist. numbers, possibly age related)
    Switzerland (not reporting critical)
    Malaysia (few developed cases)
    Canada (few developed cases)
    Diamond Prince (update status unknown)

    TOP-20 SUBSET PERCENTAGE RESULT

    Top-20 Subset | Critical | % Critical
    72,263 | 3,965 | 5.49 %

    Top-20 Subset | Died | % Died
    72,263 | 4,109 | 5.69 %

    The 5.69% died indicates medical system capacity is already being overwhelmed within the most well-equipped European States. In particular Italy’s current 8.34% died and 6.3% critical implies people who die go quick and almost all serious or critical cases are dying there.

    Other strongly infected European states seem to be on a similar trajectory, except Germany which has been doing well, but their cases are now rising very quickly (2,960 new cases just today).

    It is likely the other big excluded countries, of Iran, USA and Switzerland, are on the same path to having their hospitals overwhelmed during April (which occurred to Iran in February but its serious & critical data is absent).

    The other standout is Japan, which is managing to keep new cases low but the 3.32% died percentage is still only marginally better (900 total cases, only 726 active).

    Australia with 2/3rd as many total cases as Japan, and 547 active cases, is doing much better than Japan with only 1% died, and 1 critical case reported (while Japan has 41 critical cases). But this is because most of our active cases are less than a week old. But the fact that we have only 1 critical case listed out of ~547 active cases suggests that whatever treatments are being tried they seem to be working to prevent more critical cases developing early. The bulk of Australia’s known cases are under 70 and most are under 60. If this age skew can be maintained our numbers will remain lower for longer and our hospitals will continue to function better than most. So keeping the older population clear of COVID-19 has to be the top priority to minimize and shorten the national impact.

    50

    • #
      Meglort

      There are two things that complicate the reporting of death in a couple of these countries (Germany is a good example) where comorbidities complicate the cause of death, in other words WHAT did they die from, rather WHY did this kill them.

      A good example is death being due to ‘Viral Pneumonia’ which is the symptom rather the cause being the CCP Virus. Right or wrong, if there are comorbidities it could be difficult to determine which of the conditions most caused the death, meaning if there was not say advanced CPD, the patient may not have died when caught SARS-COV-2 and became diseased.

      Several countries have medico-legal reasons for doing this that are historical and established practice that make the numbers a bit skewed so it is understandable why they are doing it.

      20

      • #
        WXcycles

        No need to complicate or confuse the official cause of death (which is a subjective assessment). We only need to know if a person who died had an active COVID-19 infection at the time of their death to reveal the infection trend.

        Plus it seems like some (not you) want to pretend it’s not actually a serious disease, i.e. they want to assert that contributing health conditions are more important. Except this disease’s fatal-case character is best described as a serious bilateral pneumonia, where badly damaged lungs fill with a viscous fluid.

        That’s a very dangerous disease which kills people too easily. The speed of death in COVID-19 cases is reflected in the much lower critical %, compared to the % who died. Downplaying it due to associated co-morbidity factors does not make the 8.34% of people with it in Italy any less dead or the hospitals any less overwhelmed.

        How many sick people, or those giving birth, or have a broken arm, a dog bite, laceration, food poisoning, car accident, stoke etc., can not obtain medical care because of that? This is very dangerous disease even indirectly and a medical system which fails will create a lot more health problems and death than COVID-19 alone can.

        10

    • #
      tonyb

      Whilst interesting your list doesn’t take into account the numbers tested. Te more tested and found to have it then the lower the death rate becomes.

      Unfortunately due to the disparity in testing methods the only real matrix is the number of deaths per million. Even then that is a broad brush because of age differences and that some regions are affected much more badly than others.

      London with some 15% of the UK population has some 35% of all cases.

      20

      • #
        WXcycles

        Yes Tony that’s why I said “known” cases, it’s not a great basis for comparisons for sure which is why I focus on the percentage of known cases which actually died or became critical. Others will eventually figure out what was the ratio of hospital cases to non-hospital cases, within each country, long after it’s over.

        Whether they died due to a contributing health issue also becomes irrelevant as it’s just a % of cases which had COVID-19 and died during their illness. The age group distribution is generally much more informative as a proxy for the state of their immune system and health condition.

        There are countries in Africa where 50% of the population less than 15 years old, due to the poor health and illness of the 50% older than 15 years. So direct comparisons of absolute age groups would quickly become meaningless. Fortunately the most infected (i.e. most tested) countries outside of China are now almost all within Western Europe, so age spread comparisons between them and Australia etc., will soon be possible as well.

        10

  • #
    Dennis

    Ok, thank you, but the information @ #43 is important for people to know.

    20

  • #
    pat

    my opinion is irrelevant, but I do know reliable data is not available. I extended the comments by clicking “Older comments” at least twice, maybe three times:

    17 Mar: StatNews: A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
    By John P.A. Ioannidis
    (John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center)
    The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable…
    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

    Wikipedia: John Ioannidis
    In addition, he has pioneered the field of meta-research (research on research). He has shown that much of the published research does not meet good scientific standards of evidence.
    Ioannidis studies scientific research itself, especially in clinical medicine and the social sciences. He is one of the most-cited scientists in literature. His 2005 paper “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False” is the most downloaded paper in the Public Library of Science, and has the highest number of Mendeley readers across all science.”…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis

    Lipsitch wastes no time in responding – only a few comments up so far:

    18 Mar: StatNews: We know enough now to act decisively against Covid-19. Social distancing is a good place to start
    By Marc Lipsitch
    (Marc Lipsitch, D.Phil., is professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and director of Harvard’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics)
    In a recent and controversial First Opinion, epidemiologist and statistician John Ioannidis argues that we lack good data on many aspects of the Covid-19 epidemic, and seems to suggest that we should not take drastic actions to curtail the spread of the virus until the data are more certain.

    He is absolutely right on the first point…
    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/

    20

    • #
      WXcycles

      I see this is a case where we’ll not know the correct actions we should have taken until it’s over. I do wonder what these external viral specialists would say if they spent today and tomorrow in northern Italy’s hospitals. It may only be the known cases but 8.34% of them have died already, and that percentage has not stopped rising. All patients requiring a hospital for any and many other serious health reasons are now faced with no hospital or ambulance services. How many of these will perish as an indirect result? There were close to 4,300 new cases of COVID-19 during the past 24 hours in Italy so the quarantine has not shown positive results yet in lowering the new cases load at all. So should Italy have dithered, or done significantly less, 1 week ago because the data was unreliable?

      OK, so there’s not reliable data, but when has there ever been such reliable data–even in retrospect? However the Italians thought there was enough data, and Chinese likewise, when faced with the prospect of continued rapid a-symptomatic spread. They could already see where a fast developing trend would progress to. If something develops that fast and your hospitals and staff are being overwhelmed in the opening days of a disease, do Italian counterpart epidemiologists recommend everyone just wait and see? What more did they need to reliably know?

      IMHO, as with all experts (particularly from the US) you have to wonder who’s benefiting and what the motives are plus follow the money. Their statements maybe above board but I have my doubts as ego and professional self-aggrandizement plus media opportunities to make money are routinely exploited to the maximum.

      The question is, did the experts on the spot have enough reliable data to make useful predictions about actions, reactions or inaction? They already answered that.

      31

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Looking at the Market response to the various stimuli being injected federally, and looking at the bare shelves in the supermarket, we are in for a world of hurt, and yet all I see is fiddling.

    For example, there are massive stocks of groceries and non perishable food items sitting in warehouses, but there is a lack of bodies to load and unload, and even to drive the trucks. Interestingly QANTAS is in talks with Woolies, where their laid off baggage handlers can be repurposed to help. Meanwhile the government is missing.

    /Thank goodness they can not now all go to Hawaii /sarc off

    33

    • #
      el gordo

      Government is doing fine, it feels like socialism with Australian characteristics.

      21

    • #
      Analitik

      At some point fairly, people’s pantries, storeroom, sheds, spare room and freezers will be filled (mostly with bulky toilet rolls) and buying patterns will be forced to normalize. There will be some shortages where the supply chain is heavily disrupted but I think most staples will be stocked as per normal in a week at latest.

      The governments are largely incidental for this – market forces are the ultimate correction.

      50

      • #
        WXcycles

        My local super market is almost back to normal except for the bog-roll aisle which staggeringly continues to remain completely empty, it’s completely ridiculous.

        What I have noticed is that prices for many ordinary items are now higher than normal. It seems my supermarket is taking advantage of the higher demand level and it’s subtle, where they normally offer two for one pricing on some routine items, that sort of thing is not occurring. They are instead charging full price for everything, no specials, no deals.

        And the substandard fruit is getting very annoying. Apples which taste like they spent a year in a cold room. Hard to even find a orange for a few months, and dodgy looking limp half-sized lettuce for $4.50 each. Can’t get tomatoes under $8 a kilo. Since those you beaut ‘feel-good’ ads about supermarkets supplying slightly blemished or imperfect fruit, yeah, guess what, most of the fruit has been rubbish ever since. But I’ve been getting charged same or generally higher rip off prices for it. It’s not mere blemishes, this fruit is old, it’s soft, and a lot of it you bite into then just throw it into the bin, for $5 per kilo out of your pocket. The supermarkets are not doing farmers of customers a favor, they are just rorting us all. The fruiterers no longer exist so we now have no alternatives to buying rubbish fruit at a high price from the good fruit people. Meat also ridiculously expensive as they have created scarcity via live exporting cattle, so that now we pay twice as much for meat. And they even managed to charge us for the shopping bags at the very same time.

        Monopoly isn’t just a board game.

        30

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Peter you may be interested .
      Mate of mine drives for one of the majors and a few points for you to ponder .

      Curfew – yes most supermarkets have a curfew for unloading , may be imposed by council or the supermarket .
      Supermarkets outsource their deliveries and as it happens the contracts usually stipulate how many deliveries a day etc they have to deliver .
      The companies delivering from the warehouse have X trucks to deliver X goods , they allow for busy times of the year but pretty sure the hoarding because of the Corona Virus won’t be in the contract .
      Each Truck can drive massive distances from warehouse to supermarket and longest one I’ve heard of was Victoriastan to Brisbane but not unusual for Victoriastan to Sydney with Victoriastan to Canberra a common everyday trip .
      Redirecting this lot isn’t possible and they do have extra trucks to allow for accidents and breakdowns etc .
      I’m sure they’re working on how to get more trucks out there but I’m also sure the red tape associated with contracts and curfews won’t be helping .

      21

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        So the news article is wrong?

        01

        • #
          robert rosicka

          Does the news article say anything about a curfew or what the logistics are from warehouse to store ?
          Your links being mostly dodgy I never checked but I’ll take the word of a delivery driver over your link .

          20

        • #
          robert rosicka

          Are they short of products or trucks to deliver the products ?

          10

  • #

    I’m all for quinine. I’m 100% against ‘anti-depressants’ for almost anyone, regardless of what you’re using them for.

    Anti-retrovirals? They might work, even though COVID-19 is not a retrovirus. Don’t shoot the messenger, that’s what anti-HIV drugs are for: retroviruses (regardless of their efficacy, which is another debate entirely).

    I reject, by default, the attacker-defender paradigm of microbial infection, for the most part.

    10

  • #
    observa

    How on earth can the authorities go hard and go fast when you won’t even know when the littlies have it?

    Like the Govt has found out close the schools and you’re going to lose 30% of your medical staff staying home and if young productive people don’t get back to work and let all we oldies take our chances along with them then this is the stuff of The Great Depression. By the way the whole world can’t simply print money to avoid that as it’s a fallacy of composition. Real incomes have to represent real output or you’re simply going to get a massive repeat of stagflation globally as all those IOUs chase declining output. This is Econ101 people.

    40

    • #
      WXcycles

      What do such medical staff do during school holidays? Somehow they manage to cope, and the kids and medical services all survive and continue to function. The presumption that medical staff stop coming to work if the schools close is clearly not correct and very narrow thinking.

      Saw Graham Richardson last night on Sky say you can’t leave kids at home by themselves. Well what does he think we all did during our childhoods? I spent mine mostly unsupervised, the older kids became the supervisors responsible for keeping the others safe and from doing unsafe things. We played together safely until parents got home, often riding push bikes along public roads in the process. Somehow almost 100% survived and we had a stack of fun.

      60

    • #
      Analitik

      from the linked article

      then the doctor came in with a mask on, did some basic checks, temperature, checked his ears and said “yeah, it’s the coronavirus strand”.

      The test for SARS-CoV-2 (which causes Covid-19) requires samples to be sent to a lab for processing – there is no on site test (as yet – we wish).
      A lot of common cold strains are caused by other coronaviruses so it’s not necessarily a wrong diagnosis but the article is alarmist (and I am a worrywort regarding Covid-19).

      10

  • #
    observa

    The Australian Govt prints money to pretend to be Santa and what happens? Our dollar drops from 59c to 55c to buy all the imports we need. Duh!
    Are we going to repeat the lesson of The Great Depression where we have continual rounds of currency devaluations like that with beggar they neighbour? That didn’t end well folks.

    42

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    2003 Library of Congress Report: “The regions of Italy with the highest concentration of legal Chinese immigrants are Lombardy, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Tuscany, the Piedmont, Lazio (the province that includes Rome), and Emilia-Romagna. All except Lazio are in the northern part of Italy (north of Rome)”

    Lombardy just recorded 475 deaths.

    Coincidence?

    42

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Maybe a coincidence.
      But your comment verges on racism !
      :-(

      13

      • #
        Peter C

        Not Really

        Chinese are ethnically diverse!

        Woke culture has imbued us with the notion that ‘racism’ is the worst crime in the world,
        ……
        It is a simple and observable fact that woke culture is becoming an unmourned casualty of Coronavirus.

        https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/18/delingpole-woke-hug-a-chinese-person-propaganda-didnt-age-well/

        42

        • #
          Peter C

          Also note that Kek is Pepe the frog! What did you expect?

          31

          • #
            Deplorable Lord Kek

            Really, Peter, it sounds like you might be racist against Pepe the frog (!).

            32

            • #
              Peter C

              Not really your lordship.

              I was intrigued by your avatar so I did some reading. Pepe has been labelled (quite falsely) a hate figure. Hence he is adopted by others as a symbol of resistance against “wokeness” and political correctness.

              Also I liked the symbolism of Kek.

              52

      • #

        No Bill it does not. Jo runs an open forum* here where diversity, racial politics does not control free discussion. Discussing possible geographic sources of a virus spread is logical, here because Wuhan Province seems to be where the virus originated and travelled from. You, I surmise have been in favour of closing borders, flights from China… is that racist? Of course not. Free speech, best tradition of yr Western society, enabling real science, guess, freely, and test.

        * Sending you some chocolate, Jo, sorry, not toilet paper. )

        52

        • #
          tonyb

          Beth

          Yes we shouldn’t let wokeness get in the way of facts although whether the Chinese Italian connection has any relevance I don’t know.

          The Chinese and Italians both have great interaction with their families some of whom might be unwittingly infecting their elders. The Italian population is also the oldest in Europe and extremely tactile and the older age group are often heavy smokers.

          The Chinese are also heavy smokers but I don’t know how tactile they are or their demographic. In the Northern Part of Italy house prices are high so many would be living in small flats with air handler units and air conditioning units. The Italians famously don’t like to open windows in cold weather.

          So lots of similarities and possibly differences I don’t know about.

          But as you say all these things are very relevant. London has some 15% of the UK population but some 35% of cases. As LP Hartley nearly said ‘London is a foreign country they do things differently there’

          30

          • #

            Hi Tony, agree re wokeness. Who was it said ‘That which may not be said, may not be thought?’

            We humans are better at making than predicting but w/out search light questioning, we’re stuck like tribal society Sparta in an unquestioning submission to authority from above. Goodness knows, we aren’t crystal ball experts, but we can surmise and test, check the record,trial and error is naychur’s way – and Galileo’s.

            There’s a link by Ross, comment 42 …’ Number 42′, say Tony, y, maybe ‘the answer to everything,’ by an experience in the field Israeli virologist, hope I spelt it right, that suggests, cv is less virulent than yr Sars, Ebola, not air-borne and less clever than mutating flue varieties.

            00

          • #

            Tony, responded but comment is in moderation, 2nd time this week What am I doing wrong? …Serf know thyself. (

            00

            • #
              tonyb

              Beth

              In moderation? I think jo might be nervous that you intend to head a peasants revolt.

              If you screw up your eyes very tight, tilt your head to the floor and turn off the light, your name looks ‘remarkably like ‘Wat tyler’

              10

      • #
        Rolf

        It’s allowed to be critical to someone, a group or a country without being racist as long as you don’t blame anything the race itself. I am very critical to how the Chinese have handled this and how they treat their people. But I am not racist against them, my wife originate in China ….

        20

      • #
        Analitik

        Chill, Bill. Lord Kek just pointed out a correlation between 2 major infection regions and how one was the likely source of a large number of vectors to seed the other.

        Like Rolf, I’m massively critical of China’s handling of the epidemic, particularly in the initial phase where denial cost many lives and allowed the disease to spread much more quickly than if rapid containment measures had been implemented. But that’s a political issue, not a racial one.

        30

    • #
  • #
    MCMXLIII

    According to Science Daily:’ An analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered ‘.
    From the Smithsonian Magazine Nov 2017:
    ” Is China Ground Zero for a Future Pandemic? “.

    10

  • #
    george1st:)

    The world as we know it or knew it is being changed and destroyed before our eyes .
    This is not a bad flu epidemic or even a plague , it is an economy destroying monster .
    Containment and isolation will help slow the medical crisis , stimulus packages and tax deferrals and extra funding will soften the economic crisis .
    The ONLY worldwide solution now to at least lessen the damage is an antidote to the virus .
    A trillion dollars spent on an anti viruses if effective would save many more trillions , not to mention lives .

    40

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Well finally SLOMO, Hunt & Murphy
    Have seen what was bloody obvious to most of us for a month.
    And now the borders will be closed from tomorrow night
    To anyone who is not an Australian citizen or resident.

    20

  • #
    Roger Knights

    “Copper Kills Coronavirus. Why Aren’t Our Surfaces Covered in It?
    Civilizations have recognized copper’s antimicrobial properties for centuries. It’s time to bring the material back.”
    Fast Company, Mar 16 · 5 min read
    https://medium.com/fast-company/copper-kills-coronavirus-why-arent-our-surfaces-covered-in-it-b05d1219ebbf
    COMMENT:
    Dan Conine
    Might be more prudent to just issue brass wire screen masks. Can’t hurt except maybe people will have green noses for a while. I’d be curious to the residual effects on Covid19 survival in their mucus. Copper does diffuse into a lot of stuff.
    Can we still buy brass wire wool easily?

    ANOTHER TIP:
    Jerry2012I
    Comments14 | + Follow
    I carry a sprayer in my pocket. I spray the door handle before opening and after. Then I spray my hands . I touch nothing. I was raised by hospital educated people and it can be done. It is not perfect but close to it. I have not been sick with the flu, a cold, or any other viri in 30 years. I practice good hygiene. I even have bidets in the 3 bathrooms in my home. I use bleach to spray the toilets. It can be done.

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    ren

    The Polish Press Agency reports that in China, patients are given plasma from cured people who have developed antibodies.

    Plasma can be taken from people who have had the infection without any symptoms. You need to learn quickly from the Chinese.
    First, plasma with antibodies must be given to doctors because in Italy many doctors have become infected.
    Plasma of those who have recovered may be a temporary vaccine for the highest risk groups.

    I note that almost 70,000 people have already been cured in China.

    I remind you that the word SARS appears in the name of the virus and it is not influenza.
    You can slowly suck zinc tablets. Large doses of vitamin C, melatonin and coenzyme Q10 can be taken as powerful antioxidants.

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    pat

    I thought people on the “virus” threads were interested in “why Italy?” it seems not, judging by some comments above.

    31 Jan: AA: Italy reports two confirmed cases of coronavirus
    Health minister orders suspension of air traffic between Italy, China
    by Baris Seck
    Italy reported its first confirmed coronavirus cases Friday with two Chinese citizens hospitalized earlier in the week.
    “There are two confirmed cases of coronavirus in Rome. Thus, the first coronavirus cases have been seen in Italy,” Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said at a press conference with Health Minister Roberto Speranza and Giuseppe Ippolito, director of the Lazzaro Spallanzani National Institute for Infectious Diseases…
    ***Italian media reported that the Chinese tourists with the coronavirus had entered Italy from Milan (capital of Lombardy) and came to Rome for sightseeing, spending 10 days in total…
    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/italy-reports-two-confirmed-cases-of-coronavirus/1719704

    cries of zenophobia began immediately:

    31 Jan: Guardian: Outbreaks of xenophobia in west as coronavirus spreads
    Incidents of hostility towards Asian people reported in Italy, France, Canada and UK
    by Angela Giuffrida in Rome and Kim Willsher in Paris
    In Italy, the European country with the highest annual number of Chinese tourists, the confirmation of two confirmed cases – a couple who arrived in Milan from Wuhan on 23 January on a lunar new year holiday – coincided with incidents of xenophobia and calls to avoid Chinese restaurants and shops…
    More than 300,000 Chinese people live in Italy and 5 million visited in 2018…

    4 Feb: AP: Virus blocks 3 Chinese brands from Milan Fashion Week
    By COLLEEN BARRY
    Chinese consumers are the biggest luxury spenders in the world, including in Italy, where they represent 35% of big-ticket spenders, more than Russians, Arabs and Americans combined, according to a 2019 study by Global Blue, a tourism shopping tax refund company.

    5 Feb: Reuters: Italy sees fashion sales hit due to China virus, Pandora warns of business freeze
    by Claudia Cristoferi, Silvia Aloisi
    Home to the likes of Prada (1913.HK), Armani and Moncler (MONC.MI), Italy is second only to France among European countries for fashion and luxury goods sales. Total turnover for the sector was 90 billion euros last year, or about 5% of gross domestic product in the euro zone’s third biggest economy, according to CNMI figures…
    Chinese shoppers fueled a decade of growth for the luxury goods industry and today account for 35% of the sector’s global sales, estimated at 281 billion euros last year by consultancy Bain & Co…
    Capasa said three Chinese designers had been forced to cancel their shows at Milan’s Women’s Fashion Week on Feb. 18-24, and about 1,000 Chinese people who had been expected to attend would now likely not show up.
    “The Chinese are big spenders, for us this is quite relevant,” he said.

    10 Mar: AsiaTimes: On being a Chinese in Italy during virus crisis
    Ignorance and racism are damaging the usually healthy Sino-Italian dynamic
    by Federica Russo
    (Federica Russo is an Italian freelance writer whose articles have been published by The Diplomat, Asia Times, OBOReurope, Asia Power Watch, Cultural Bridge and other platforms where she is focused on Chinese engagement in the global scene and Corporate Boards’ dynamics. She is a researcher at Wikistrat)
    According to data published by the Italian Ministry of Labor and Social Policies, 309,110 Chinese people were officially living in the country in 2018, comprising 155,305 men and 153,805 women with an average age of 31 years. Lombardy and Tuscany emerged as the two regions that received the largest number. Specifically, several businesses producing or selling clothes, supermarkets, and technological-device stores have been concentrated in the city of Milan, boosting a vibrant multicultural environment in Lombardy…

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      pat

      should have added that, apparently, Chinese in Lombardy were travelling to China and back for Lunar New Year during January, and tourists from China were arriving in Lombardy up until flights were banned on 31 Jan:

      23 Jan: Reuters: Passengers from China’s Wuhan arriving in Rome checked for coronavirus: airport spokesman
      The check on the 202 passengers and crew was the first since Italian health authorities ordered special control measures to prevent transmission of the virus this week. There was no information on any possible suspected cases.
      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-italy/passengers-from-chinas-wuhan-arriving-in-rome-checked-for-coronavirus-airport-spokesman-idUSKBN1ZM0VN

      from The Guardian article posted:
      Matteo Salvini, the leader of Italy’s far-right League, seized on the panic to plug his anti-immigration message and attack rivals in government. “Every day dozens of flights arrive in Italy from China: we need checks, checks and more checks,” he said…

      7 Feb: WantedInMilan: Italy confirms third case of Coronavirus
      The case involves one of the 56 Italians evacuated from Wuhan – the Coronavirus epicentre in China – quarantined at the Cecchignola military base south of Rome.
      The evacuated Italians have been kept in isolation at the base, under constant medical observation, since their return to Italy on 2 February…
      This is the third confirmed case of Coronavirus in Italy, a week after two Chinese tourists were hospitalised in Rome.
      https://www.wantedinmilan.com/news/italy-confirms-third-case-of-coronavirus.html

      Italy had declared a state of emergency on January 31 and suspended all flights to and from China.

      Wikipedia: 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Italy
      On 31 January, the Italian government suspended all flights to and from China and declared a state of emergency. On 8 March 2020, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expanded the quarantine to all of Lombardy and 14 other northern provinces, and on the following day to all of Italy, placing more than 60 million people in quarantine…
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

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        pat

        finally, I am not claiming Chinese nationals are responsible for the outbreak in Lombardy. simply providing some information on the region. that’s enough for me on the virus threads.

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    WXcycles

    50 new cases in QLD today or 32% increase in 1 day. I’m guessing that leap is due to a delay in results being returned.

    QLD Health used over 27,000 kits to identify 144 cases with 1,300 test results still to be returned.

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    Another Ian

    “An effective treatment for #Coronavirus #COVID-19 has been found in a common anti-malarial drug”

    “UPDATE: A Covid-19 case correlation between malarial and non-malarial countries has been plotted by Dr. Roy Spencer, and the results are stunning – see below.”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19-has-been-found-in-a-common-anti-malarial-drug/


    [You had some caught in spam which is not the usual way to moderation. I've freed what I could find but let us know if there are more.] ED

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    Mikehig

    There’s a parallel thread running over on WUWT.
    Dr Roy Spencer has just added an update where he analysed the incidence of COVID-19 against the prevalence of malaria, by country.
    His findings are startling: in his own words:
    “In all my years of data analysis I have never seen such a stark and strong relationship: Countries with malaria basically have no COVID-19 cases (at least not yet).”

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    Another Ian

    This is part of a comment that seems to have vanished into the oolu

    “UPDATE: A Covid-19 case correlation between malarial and non-malarial countries has been plotted by Dr. Roy Spencer, and the results are stunning – see below.”

    From WUWT

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    ren

    In hospitalized adult patients with severe Covid-19, no benefit was observed with lopinavir–ritonavir treatment beyond standard care. Future trials in patients with severe illness may help to confirm or exclude the possibility of a treatment benefit. (Funded by Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development and others; Chinese Clinical Trial Register number, ChiCTR2000029308. opens in new tab.)

    ttps://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001282?query=featured_home

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    Another Ian

    Link for the record

    “Two to four doublings make a huge difference and that is the uncertainty that we are dealing with. Here’s good commentary from a professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19-has-been-found-in-a-common-anti-malarial-drug/#comment-2940599

    [You had some caught in spam which is not the usual way to moderation. I've freed what I could find but let us know if there are more.] ED

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    Another Ian

    Hmmm! Looks like WUWT references must have the moderation virus

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    Another Ian

    O/T but did you notice?

    Yesterday $A1.00 = $US 0.61

    Today $A1.00 = $US 0.56

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    Enoch Root

    To be honest, Joanne, I don’t think we have any alternative than implememt the “crush the curve” approach. We’ll end up there eventually, the sooner the better.

    Take a look at https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

    There is no other option, really.

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      Sunni Bakchat

      Wondering if the modellers have the same sort of dystopian socialistic aspirations as The Climate Change modellers? Have they been realistic on the stochastic limitations that presently exist? Would love to see their input assumptions and applied co-efficients! Wonder whether they’ve done any regression analysis to work out the easiest way to minimise harm? I don’t for a moment doubt Crushing the Curve is the benchmark best approach.

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