JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Doc explains how Coronavirus kills. Jo points out obvious: Stop the Flights or Close the schools, lockdown everyone

Fun subject of the day: How Coronavirus kills

No seriously, this is matter-of-fact, youtube-at-its-best, concise, cartoony, and smart.

Think of doctors as Body-Engineers. The problem to solve today Engineer-readers — is how to keep blood supply oxygenated when lungs are highly inflamed, filling with fluid, and the delicate thin membranes of lung tissue can’t cope with the sheer forces of rapid collapse and expansion. As well, if oxygen levels drop, even unconscious patients will breathe involuntarily — out of synch with artificial ventilation machines. The sensation of suffocation creates the urge to breath faster and harder.

.
The great news is ICU staff are getting much better at keeping people alive when they get ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) which can happen with other diseases (like Influenza). Seems, the ICUs can keep 84% alive while they wait for the inflammation to subside and the damage to heal. Though the DIY version at home probably won’t be so effective.

Not enough beds

Obviously, this explains my obsessive interest in the percentage needing ICU care and also the Ro (rate of reproduction or spread). With a shortage of ICU beds, slowing the spread makes a life-and-death difference to state the bleeding obvious. To bore you again: in Australia we have about 1 ICU bed per 12000 people or 2,000 ICU beds nationally.

Check out the Ro epidemiology curve written here Jan 31st: Corona virus and those exponential curves. Note that current estimates of Ro are between 2 and 3, so higher than these (meaning the curve will hit harder, faster and peak higher unless we bring it down through draconian isolation measures). An Ro of 1.8 peaks in just 60 days. Sometime in the last few days a medico in Japan got this through to the guy in charge, which is why with only 200 patients he realized that closing schools was imperative across the whole country. The only way to reduce the R0 to zer0 is to “Stop The Flights”. The next best option (far distant second) are mass lockdowns, closure of factories, schools, offices, etc.

As a reader wrote to me yesterday: It’s not practical to close the borders. My reply: It’s not practical to kill 100,000 people either but one or the other may happen.  Do the maths, WHO estimates 1% CFR (Case Fatality Rate. Let’s be optimistic, call it 0.5%. Deaths in the next six months: Australia, 125,000; Canada, 175,000; New Zealand, 25,000, USA, 1.6m; UK, 300,000. Geddit?

 

Ro epidemiology exponential curve, Graph. Coronavirus potential spread.

Ro, Reproductive curves of  infectious diseases. ResearchGate

Next post: stock up at home. Panic buying is what happens when people wait for the government to tell them to prepare. Think of long lasting food that you will eat anyway, and don’t forget soap, toilet paper, toothpaste, disposable gloves, plastic bags, detergents, medicines (prescriptions). Mail order deliveries are a good option. The less physical shopping you need to do in the next few months, the better. Do it for your country. If you can stay out of the shops, and out of the hospital, that’s going to help the people who can’t.

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Doc explains how Coronavirus kills. Jo points out obvious: Stop the Flights or Close the schools, lockdown everyone, 9.5 out of 10 based on 72 ratings

252 comments to Doc explains how Coronavirus kills. Jo points out obvious: Stop the Flights or Close the schools, lockdown everyone

  • #
    Judge Dredd

    call it 0.5%. Deaths in the next six months: Australia, 125,000

    No, the whole population of Australia is not getting the Kung Flu. Stick to generally accepted infection rates for flu like viruses (5% on average, or 20% at worst case).
    Overall this virus is no more than a bad flu and the stats from Italy show the death rate is much much lower than we were lead to believe.

    I do agree that stocking up makes sense, riven supply chain disruptions from government responses to this.

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    • #

      Judge Dredd, This is not the Flu. 100% of the population have no immunity. The Ro is higher. The rate of severe cases is 5 – 15% even in countries outside China. About 1/3 severe cases progress to ICU 8 days after symptoms appear. There is no reason to “stick to accepted infection rates” for totally different disease. To wit: those accepted rates are not accepted by medical experts.

      Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told The Wall Street Journal that “it’s likely we’ll see a global pandemic” of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world’s population likely to be infected this year.

      It could infect 60% of global population if unchecked.
      Prof. Gabriel Leung Expert on Coronavirus epidemics, Chair of Public Health Medicine, Hong Kong University, Feb. 11, 2020

      Prof Neil Ferguson, a mathematical biologist at Imperial College, London, said the world was “in the early phases of a global pandemic”. He added that if it establishes itself “maybe up to 60% of the population might be affected most of them with very mild symptoms”.

      Most will be mild meaning 80% +. But conservatively if only 5% need hospitalization and only 1% need ICU that means per million population 600,000 catch it. 30,000 need hospitals, 6,000 need ICU. Eg Australia 15m infections. 750,000 hospitalized in the next year. 150,000 needing ICU in a nation with 2,000 ICU beds.

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      • #
        Damon

        JoNova, You are assuming the antigens of the coronavirus are completely novel, so that there is no pre-existing immunity. This is very unlikely to be the case, as there will almost certainly be immunological cross-reactivity with other related viruses, and therefore a variable degree of ‘protection’ in the general population. The situation is similar to what happens every year with new strains of the influenza virus. People die, and the elderly appear to be more at risk, but the level of hysteria associated with the coronavirus appears to be completely unwarranted. A media-fuelled fear of a new name.

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        • #

          We only wish that were true.

          Coronavirus is a betacoronavirus related to SARS (10% death rate, 0% immunity in Australia). Damon, have you got any evidence that immunity to common coronaviruses lasts long or is any way protective? Ed– HKu1 OC43 (betacoronavirus) or NL36, 229E (human alphacoronavirus)

          Immunity to influenza from natural infection lasts a lifetime, but immunity to coronavirus appears to wane in a year. Most human coronaviruses fall into one of two serotypes: OC43-like and 229E-like.

          Chinese people would have just as much if not more coronavirus immunity than we do. Didn’t help them.

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          • #
            Damon

            I think we are talking at cross purposes. First of all, you state that there is no immunity to coronavirus, then that it “appears to wane in a year”. Second, you appear to believe that immunity to influenza lasts a lifetime, yet we are all encouraged to get the annual vaccine against new strains. You are well aware that new strains of influenza spread rapidly, and infect and kill a lot of people. There may be a difference in quantity, but not in kind.

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            • #

              Damon,
              Not cross purposes. I’m going into more detail. “Natural immunity” is not the same as “vaccine immunity”.

              1. There are many types of coronavirus. Even after years there are not good vaccines to the common ones. Most cause “colds” but unlike influenza even these don’t generate long term natural immunity (<1 year estimate). As I asked, is there any evidence of immunological similarity between the "cold" coronavirus and the SARS type ones? I've not seen it. And if there is, why would it help us any more than it helped people in China? This nCov is like SARS. Very few people carry antibodies to SARS. Though 40% of animal traders in Guandong were seropositive for SARS-CoV, so if there is any natural immunity to the new SAR-CoV-2 it’s in China, likely not the West. But if you work with bats or trade pangolins and civets you might get lucky.

              2. Influenza is a totally different large group of viruses. People who catch a strain eg H2N2 carry that protection for that for life, and may have some protection against similar strains like H2N3 etc.

              3. Vaccines generate protective antibodies but rarely for life. Our immune systems just don’t get as excited about a dead thing that doesn’t replicate, or a replicating thing that doesn’t hurt. Tetnus vaccines need boosters every ten years, and we’ve been using them for years. Once you start getting yearly flu vacc it is important to keep doing it as you won’t have the natural protection to the latest strains as the people who caught them naturally. Plus the viral strains change every year and the vaccine is the best guess as to the mix that will be circulating. Even those who take the annual flu vaccine only have 40-60% less influenza. According to the CDC.

              4. Agreed. If we die of influenza, or Covid-19, or SARS = all equally bad.

              5. Disagree: Annual flu season is not the same as new unknown different virus with higher death rate, higher hospitalization rate, no known natural immunity (medical staff at risk too), higher Ro, no proven anti-virals, no vaccines, and by almost every estimate with current numbers will over run our hospital capacity in <12 weeks unless we do draconian quarantine or invent time travel and "close borders three weeks ago".

              PS: I don’t “believe” immunity lasts a lifetime. I read it in medical papers: Eg antibodies last >50 years see Fig 2. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Immune-responses-stimulated-by-natural-influenza-virus-infection-current-vaccination_fig2_324022734. I didn’t have time to link. (and still don’t really)

              I note with interest that even in 2015 experts said they still don’t understand how the human immune system protects us so well from influenza. No wonder our vaccines are not yet as effective. “Given the long history of influenza research, it is remarkable that many of the key features of the immune response to natural infection are still poorly understood in humans

              Does that help?

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              • #
                David A

                As an example of the lack of immunity, consider one location of a church group in South Korea. The only reason it did not go to 100 percent infected is likely time and false negatives. Case study…

                In Daegu, 1900 Shincheonji Church members have been tested for coronavirus.

                1300 had symptoms & 600 did not.

                Among those 1300 with symptoms, 87.5% were confirmed with the virus .

                BUT out of the 600 WITHOUT symptoms, 70% were confirmed with
                the virus.

                Over 80 percent infected, and moving towards 100 percent, false negatives plus time. Really illustrates the absence of immunity of a brand new virus, whereas there is natural immunity in the population to the common flus.

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              • #
                David A

                Jo, for some reason this comment on CFR or mortality won’t post. BTW, E.M. Smith gave the comment a compliment. So I will try again…

                Jonova, I deeply agree with your post, yet please let me explain why the current 1 percent mortality method is, IMV, completely wrong. ( As well as support your post with disparate yet in kind thoughts.)

                This is the method commonly used.
                Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

                This ONLY works after all patients are either cured or dead. So, excluding this year, and going by the past 9 year history of either cured or dead, the flu is just above one tenth of one percent fatal. ( One in every thousand flu cases dies). U.S. numbers.
                https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

                From the link above, average flu cases per year in the US is about 30 million. Multiply that times one tenth of one percent, or .001 which equals 30,000 dead in an average flu year. Actual average est was about 33,000 dead each year, but 30 k is well within the error bars of the link, as is one tenth of one percent.

                Average flu hospitalization is a bit over 4 million, which, over the 13 week flu season, this is 308,000 hospitalizations per week with an average stay of about 5 days per patient.

                Now, from this link… https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
                regarding global death rate of the Coronavirus…

                Infected 84,173

                Deaths: 2,876

                Recovered 36,880

                Active 44,417

                Serious or critical 8,095 (18%)

                So assume that by a magic wand, patient 84,173 is the last patient. We currently have 8,095 serious or critical. We also have about 20,000 of those 84,173 cases that are new in the last two weeks, the vast majority of which have not had time to go critical or fatal.

                Let’s conservatively take a WAG that an additional 18 percent of 15,500 cases go serious or critical. That’s about 2,800 more serious to critical cases. So call it 10,000 serious or critical, and we can expect about 20 percent of those to be fatal. ( Early number , may need an update) So about 2,000 more fatal. 2,000 plus 2,876 is 4,876 likely deaths in 84,173 cases. A 5.8 percent mortality!

                BTW, death to recovered for the Coronavirus, which is exactly what the flu statistics are based on, is 7.8 percent!

                Now this is mostly China’s numbers. They are simply FUBAR. It could be there are many mild cases that were never counted, lowering the mortality. It could also be that there are thousands of deaths never assigned to the Coronavirus, both in hospitals and in homes, and in incubation-quarantine centers, ( group quarantine is not quarantine) and in rest homes for the elderly, that died and never got recorded as cases and or deaths. Link… https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-continues-with-fake-reporting-of-71-new-deaths,-508-new-infections-and-as-more-contradictory-cases-emerge-

                If you were in China with flu symptoms, and knew the hospitals were over whelmed, and full of the Coronavirus, and you thought you were, like 80 plus percent of the infected, just fine with only mild flu like symptoms, and or thought your illness may be the regular flu, also more likely at this time, and so figured you had a 95 percent plus chance of making it without medical help, why would you report your symptoms, which would likely result in being thrown into a giant room of thousands of other possibly exposed, row after row of beds in large single room facilities with common restrooms or, if lucky, placed in an overcrowded understaffed hospital. That is an infection trap, worse then the Princess cruise, which had a very high R-naught.

                In Summary it is very likely that China has far more cases, recoveries and dead then their official numbers. Let’s hope they are at least balancing the case load totals; hospitalized to fatal, so that the percentages are helpful to the R.O.W.

                An average U.S. flu year of 30 million cases, and 30,000 deaths, becomes, with a mortality rate of 5.8 percent, 1,740,000 dead with this illness. 58 times as deadly as the flu under the same case load, IF they are equally infectious. Unfortunately they are not.

                Now let’s consider the R- naught of the flu, 1.3, vs the Coronavirus. It is very generous to go with an R- naught of 2.6 for the Caronavirus. Here is one of several studies which show a higher R-naught then the CDC. In this case 3.1. Researchers from Lancaster University
                https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

                Several credible medical institution’s have placed the Coronavirus R-naught up to 6.9 to 7.0.
                ( Link to follow)

                So, going with just the 2.6 R-naught, the U.S. then have 60 million infected and 3,480,000 dead. We also have 18 percent of 60 million needing hospital beds for a week. That is 10,800,000 hospital beds. Divided by a typical flu season that is 839,770 beds needed each week. ( In reality it would be better in the early phase, and much worse at the peak)

                The US only has about 900,000 hospital beds! The U.S. has an overall hospital occupancy of 63 percent. During the flu season ( other illnesses peak along with the flu) I am guessing that this occupancy rate increases by about 22 percent of total beds to 85 percent occupancy, leaving about 135,000 beds available. ( Best case) With an R-naught of 2.6 and a serious to critical hospitalization need of 839,770 beds, the U.S. would be 705,000 beds short each week! This would tremendously overburden our medical facilities. ( Did you see the videos out of Wuhan of medical staff breaking down, streets lined up to get into hospitals, etc…) How many more people, with other serious diseases, would die if this scenario occurred?

                This is why China has destroyed their own economy at a critical time of economic vulnerability. This is why every nation with borders to Iran, when it had only 30 cases, closed those borders. This is why South Korea is stopping public events, putting cities on lock down, closing businesses.

                My perspective is to watch what nations do, not what buricrats say.

                BTW, other nations, seeing the economic collapse of China, are very likely to also greatly minimize the real numbers.

                The above scenario is what is very realistic IF we treat this as a common flu. It could be considerably worse, a higher R-naught for instance, and reports of up to 14 percent of cured still testing positive and re-infections, therefore much greater fatalities.

                However we are not treating this as a common flu. It could mutate to a less virulent form. We could develop an effective vaccine while we take necessary painful steps to slow this down. As individuals we can decide to stock up now on extra food now, to lessen the panic later. Same with water, medicines, pet needs.

                We can self quarantine IF this gains a foothold in the country you live in. We can work together locally and with other nations to lessen the pain that is yet increasing. Let’s hope – pray that the R- naught is lower and the mortality is lower in developed nations of cleaner air and less smoking addicted, and with summer coming a greatly reduced viral load and R-naught.

                Unfortunately in early stages of exponential growth the mortality rate is skewered low because of the mean time to death. ( In this case about 21 days from infection to death.)

                [David A, for some reason these comments were caught as spam. I have freed up all that were found with your name. If this happens again please email support. ] ED

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              • #
                Bob-l

                One thing that is certain Jo is that viruses that spread by droplet can’t propagate well in weather that dessicates the droplet/virus.

                Cold viruses live seconds to minutes outside a host in hot climates. The norther hemisphere is heading into summer and the infection rate will drop as the day time temperature rises. By the time it’s 25 degrees the survival of the virus will be down to an hour or so about 1% of its survival at 3C.

                The exponential rise will not eventuate here (until winter) and will break as the daytime temperature rises in the NH.

                You are over reacting, have prudence not panic

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              • #

                Dare I suggest prudence means closing borders til we understand this virus and have some data. Not risking tens of thousands of lives. Our hospitals may get overrun if we don’t do something.

                As for summer or humidity, it’s not so simple,
                for example with Influenza – transmission increases in cold dry air and in warm wet air. The crossover point is about 24C. Humidity has different effects at different temperatures.

                And different influenza viruses peak in different seasons, and corona virus is not influenza, and we don’t know yet if it is seasonal. We hope it is. And even knowing all that, last summer the flu was present in Australia at higher rates than expected all summer — and none of those strains were new strains to the population. And as it happens in Australia people catch it all over the country at the same rate. Even 3000km apart and in different climates is not enough. Do planes trump climates?

                Geoghegan JL, Saavedra AF, Duchêne S, Sullivan S, Barr I, Holmes EC (2018) Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climactic variation. PLoS Pathog 14(1): e1006780. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1006780

                https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1006780

                …in addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the event of the emergence of a novel, human-to-human transmissible, virus.

                We use a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance and genomic sequence data to determine the pattern and determinants of influenza spread through time and space at a continental scale, utilizing 450,000 data entries gathered across Australia over a 10-year period (2007–2016). Our results reveal a remarkable epidemiological synchronicity across this large and geographically diverse continent, and in the face of enormous climatic variation, from the tropical north to the temperate south. Such synchronicity was especially marked during years associated with the emergence of antigenically distinct strains. This pattern of continental synchronicity highlights the importance of a highly coordinated responses in the event of the emergence of a novel, human-to-human transmissible, virus, and hence has broad-scale public health implications.

                A new influenza strain hits the whole continent at once no matter the weather…

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              • #
                Damo

                @Bob-I and Jo, It flaburgasts me that on the one hand people can cite supposed global warming as a threat to human existence and then on the other hand the seemingly same people can downplay the threat of a highly contagious, novel disease! Don’t get me wrong, the corona virus probably won’t make us extinct but has a potential to cause more death, pain and suffering than greenhouse gas emissions ever will.

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              • #
                Bulldust

                Good video covering the BS that emanates from China:

                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOHIhshyWE4

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          • #
            Bulldust

            Couple of comments with links disappeared now…

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            • #
              Roger Knights

              @JO:
              “A new influenza strain hits the whole continent at once no matter the weather…”

              Almost as though it arrived from outer space.

              20

          • #
            sophocles

            It might be useful to keep one’s levels of Vitamin D (the sunshine vitamin) up. It’s intimately entwined with our immune systems (most cells in the human body have a Vit-D receptor) and could form a good first line of defence:

            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6234573/

            I’m not saying it’s “a Miracle Cure™” but it could be useful to ameliorate Covir-19s symptoms. Blood serum levels of the order of 50nm/ml (or better but not too much so) could help tip the scales more towards survival, esp for the young and old and take some of the load off our hospitals. Most of the other infectious such as cold-producing rhinovirii and the human infectious corona virii are stopped. (My personal experience tends to bear that out.) Every bit which helps is a useful precaution.

            I also note that the Northern Hemisphere is in the middle of its CCF-Season (“Coughs Colds and Flu Season”). It has been noted by others that the air of Wuhan is not of high quality. This may be one reason the Covir-19 is so dangerous there. Another reason is that the Northern hemisphere season is late winter when the population’s Vitamin D reserves are low or even deficient. This holds equally in the Southern Hemisphere during late July, August and early September — the SH CCF Season.

            Extra Vitamin C in your diet may also help. Taking Vitamin C tablets is a waste of time and money: 90% just passes through without absorption. Berries are a very rich source of usable Vitamin C, as are citrus fruits to a lesser extent. Maybe that’s why citrus matures so late in the year …

            None of this is Miracle Cure territory but should be regarded as giving our immune systems the tools and reserves to help maximise resistance.

            10

            • #
              greggg

              The effectiveness of vitamin C in preventing and relieving the symptoms of virus-induced respiratory infections:
              https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10543583
              ‘Overall, reported flu and cold symptoms in the test group decreased 85% compared with the control group after the administration of megadose Vitamin C.’

              20

          • #
            Speedy

            Hi Jo. Did anyone say “precautionary principle”? A quick visit to the supermarket today suggests that this particular risk is being taken seriously by the people who would wear it! As opposed to some other “extinction” crises that are upon us, apparently…?
            Best Wishes to you and all “the usuals” Stay well and God Bless.
            Mike

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        • #
          Bulldust

          Damon, notice how China closes down to a crawl for weeks every year during flu season? Yeah, that doesn’t happen. This is different to flu, by quite a margin.

          BTW Perth just had the first Aussie death to Covid-19:
          https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/coronavirus-fears-mount-as-medical-chief-warns-wa-is-particularly-vulnerable-20200301-p545ro.html

          We are on the tragedy map:
          https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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          • #
            OriginalSteve

            To keep things in perspective, the death was a 78 year old male that had been on the cruise.

            A flu type illness that kills an older person is not really unexpected, in some respects.

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      • #
        PeterS

        So what you are saying Jo is it will go beyond being a pandemic and become endemic. Yes it’s very possible but we still have to wait and see of indeed such a large percentage of the population become infected. At the moment it’s just speculation.

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        • #

          Not talking about “pandemic” v “endemic” — just concerned about next six months. There are rumours and hints that it may infect dogs (unconfirmed and no time to check). But if this can, and if it gets into the animal pop then “endemic” = “True”. That’s another discussion.

          We may still prevent this going pandemic. If all nations closed borders and did agressive isolation and tracking we might reel it in. (OK, I’m an optimist). I can’t see how Africa, Iran and (likely Indonesia) will do that. Can California even do that?

          Also possible we will jag an anti-viral, develop an ACE-2 mimic molecule that doesnt blow our blood pressure, but fools the virus, or maybe CRISPR will save us and delete the whole thing. MAybe there is still some lucky gene combination that reduces odds of ARDS in some ethnic groups. Possible asteroid will wipe it out too, but then we have bigger problems.

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          • #
            PeterS

            I’m glad you at least agree with me that it’s not as yet a pandemic, and all borders perhaps should be closed to prevent it becoming one. All the rest of the issues are pure speculation and pointless discussing them. The real question is should we close the borders now or later. That requires a crystal ball. The precautionary principle dictates we should do it now.

            40

          • #
            Ian

            It is possible that CRISPR using Cas13 may save us but probably not this time as I don’t think it has been used in animal studies nor how to target the virus in a living person. But that said it seems highly likely CRISPR will definitely have a role in future viral endemics/pandemics.

            02

        • #
          Damo

          Really! We can already see that cases outside China are growing exponentially and that has not deviated. If there was one issue you would apply the precautionary principle it would be this one.

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          • #
            Andrew McRae

            That’s a misuse of the term “precautionary principle” which only applies where there is large uncertainty in the dynamics of the situation.
            There is no uncertainty about this pandemic. Excluding sudden breakdowns and structural changes, a factory that produces 5000 widgets per day in linear fashion can be assumed to generate 20,000 widgets in the next 4 days without this being any application of “the precautionary principle”. Similarly, excluding sudden structural changes, a viral outbreak that produces cases of disease in an exponential trend can be assumed to continue generating cases exponentially several weeks into the future without any uncertainty involved. There’s no “what-if”, because it is governed by dynamics that are known and observed.

            Okay so only the initial onset is exponential and it will level off naturally, but we’ll be on the exponential side for several weeks. Plus there is hopefully going to be structural changes which invalidate exponential extrapolations because that’s exactly what individual fear, quarantine, and new international travel restrictions can and should do.

            It looks like the cumulative cases curve is a sigmoid curve for each breakout region all superimposed onto each other. When a new region gets an outbreak you get an exponential trend above what can be extrapolated from the data up to that point. This is what it looks like at the moment. I’ve got two overlapping time ranges labelled arbitrarily as the first and second waves.
            https://i.imgur.com/uZEi7LI.png

            It’s currently Monday and there’s about 9000 cases. Extrapolating exponentially from most recent data, I expect 20,000 ±2000 cases outside China by this Friday.

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            • #
              Damo

              You are right, thanks for your correction, there is little uncertainty about the dynamics of this in the near future. Where i would take precaution is any suggestion that things might get better as people self quarantine, etc. it also has the potential to get worse than predicted if health services are overwhelmed.

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    • #
      Bulldust

      JD, you really want to go with Italy? Based on known cases and deaths the CFR is over 2.5% and it’s only early days. It is way, way too early to get a good idea about CFR (Case Fatality Rate), and I am the first to argue there are probably many people with the virus never reporting or being tested, so that stats are simply not reliable yet. Fact is, China doesn’t close down for business every flu season. They know this one is nasty, and hence the precautions. Why they know this is nasty, on the other hand, is open to speculation.

      I’d link to worldometer for the Italy stats, but this web site seems to be quarantining links at the moment.

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      • #
        golfsailor

        Italy stats :

        cases
        157
        231
        323
        468
        655
        888
        1128
        1694

        Deaths
        3
        7
        11
        12
        17
        21
        29
        34

        Open cases :
        153
        223
        310
        453
        593
        821
        1049
        1577

        Serious cases
        26
        23
        19
        35
        56
        64
        105
        140

        Mortality
        10.34%
        23.33%
        36.67%
        25.53%
        23.29%
        24.71%
        36.71%
        29.06%

        Well only have last week, but that’s more or less what there is.

        I have all the countries now for last week if someone want’s more :-)

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  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Jo the government that decides on a policy which kills 125,000 Australians will itself be killed by the survivors.
    Closing the borders is this government’s only option if it wishes to survive !
    Hunt & Morrison ?
    Are you listening ?

    PS I’ve done most of my stocking up gradually over the past week.Now just need more rubber gloves.

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    • #
      LightningCamel

      Hi Bill, I have been doing the same here, concentrating on basic food items and hygeine supplies and the thankfully small number of required medicines. Are you working on anything significantly different?

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        There are some supplements I take like
        Vitamin C ( the 1000 gram tablet type )
        Vitamin D3
        Ubiquinol &
        Vitamin K2
        I have good supplies of these for a couple of months.
        One thing I have not yet got enough of is alcohol based sanitiser.
        None in the local chemist or Coles !
        but I saw it in our local mini Filipina grocery shop.

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          Environment Skeptic

          About the alcohol sanitiser…And you can also make tea tree oil.
          “Alcoengine Reflux Still – How to setup and use this distillation aparatus for home Distillation”
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxY8cOYy4Fo

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        • #
          sophocles

          What’s wrong with Methylated Spirits?

          It’s 90% ethyl alcohol and 10% methyl alcohol with a teaspoon of pyridine to colour it and make it taste foul.
          It’s available off the supermarket shelves very cheaply, and you don’t have to make anything. It has the advantage of being water soluble and is an excellent solvent for fats and oils,

          Just don’t try drinking it; that’s not recommended at all.

          (Why vitamin K2?)

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          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Us older farts tend to get brittle bones
            As we age
            In all parts of the body !
            An added point of vulnerability !
            But it is prevented by a daily dose of K2.
            Either from good Gouda or Brie cheese
            Or simply from a K2 tablet.

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    • #
      LightningCamel

      On the more serious question, I would think Morrison and co. are fairly safe. If 125k die then the survivors will be looking for any sort of organisation to repair the damage to social and commercial infrastructure. The other mob have not proposed any useful alternative, they have been further down the “don’t upset the chinese” rathole than the current mob.

      For what its worth, I doubt that any travel ban at this stage would do much more than nibble around the edges of the problem. We already have several thousand Chinese secondary students entered in late Jan early Feb with no screening and straight into school, some having been in Wuhan a day or two earlier. Then there are the Chinese tertiary students who have come in via a third country to escape travel restrictions. Then there are an unknown number of Italians and Australian tourists who have been to Northern Italy. Bear in mind that the vast majority of new cases in Europe over the last week or two have traced to Italy or Iran it is unlikely that we will not have had significant transmission to Australia.

      The initial infections ex China in Europe seemed to fizzle out where the infections from Italy are spreading, to what extent is unknown. Maybe this is a result of open borders but I do wonder if there has been a change in the virus.

      Closing borders may help to reduce the early scope of the problem or the speed of propagation but I do not think “keep it out” is a possibility.

      I have to say this does not fill me with glee as, being 72, I can see myself being told there are no ICU beds and being invited to go home to live or die on my own resources. Unwelcome though it would be that would be a perfectly rational triage.

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      • #

        “doubt that any travel ban at this stage would do much more than nibble around the edges of the problem. We already have several thousand Chinese secondary students entered in late Jan early Feb”

        Each new outbreak is going to mean tracking and lockdowns. Every single outbreak we can avoid now may delay the point when hospitals can’t cope. The longer the delay the better the odds that one of scores of medical teams will figure something out.

        Look at those exponential curves and tell me that every weeks delay in the early stages is not helpful. We should prioritize delaying the big peak til after winter if it is at all possible.

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          Meglort

          Jo, family member is a NUM for a public hospital ED.
          They have been testing a lot (quite a few suspects too), but one of them today was a GenY female just back from Bali.
          Muscle pain, fever, fatigue and dry cough.

          They are pretty sure that she has it, sample sent off this afternoon.
          So maybe the prayers did not work…but lots of Aussies possibly lurking with this thing coming back from there if it is true.

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          Analitik

          The longer the delay the better the odds that one of scores of medical teams will figure something out.

          This is the crux of the arguments at this point. Since the virus can make a person infectious prior to presenting symptoms (some seem to call this asymptomatic but it isn’t), in the long term, this WILL be a community disease that we will need to cope with. Closing down borders buys time to hopefully come up with better medicines, treatments, preventions etc.

          But I think that horse has already bolted – heavy quarantine measures should have been enforced as soon as China admitted to the existence of this new infection. At that point, there would have been some chance of containing it in remote holiday villas. Now is too late – I hear anecdotally of confirmed cases businessmen returning from Italy. If true, how many others on that incoming flight are now out in the community as pre-symptomatic spreaders?

          I truly fear for the elderly and infirm (like my parents and in-laws). While I don’t see our government covering up like China and Iran, it doesn’t have the power to enforce community quarantines, either and that is the only other mechanism to buy time for more R&D to cope with Covid-19

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        • #
          LightningCamel

          Sorry its taken me so long to get back to this, I was doing some volunteering yesterday that turned into a 12 hour job and today was catchup.

          I guess my point is that we already have so much exposure that the exponential curves are primed and we are going to have to cope anyway.

          I heard some Australian health “official” on their ABC yesterday (forgive the heresy but I was on the road for much of the day and had classic FM on to relieve the boredom) who was commenting that they have not banned travel from Italy “because we trust the screening program of some countries”. Apart from the backhander to Iran this is utter drivel. Italy is not testing passengers leaving and they have not been able to keep up with testing their own population. On top of that people from Italy have been a major source of infection throughout Europe, Africa and South America and many of these infections have spread, unlike the initial ex Chinese ones which seemed to fizzle. Many possible reasons for that but interesting all the same and there is no denying that Italy has been a significant secondary centre. On the face of it, restricting travel from Italy would seem to be higher priority that Iran.

          Given that we have not done that before now I am thinking its probably too late and perhaps it may be better use of resources to concentrate on preparation. I agree that this is likely to change the timing but I don’t have high hopes of a breakthrough in a week or two so a change of that magnitude in the timeline will not make a huge difference to the overall outcome.

          How successful would be be in trying to close our borders in any case? What about the thousands of Aussies in Europe, do we lock them out? Can we survive without foreign expertise, if not who makes the decisions of who we let in? Are we prepared for the saturation coverage of the inevitable mothers and children being forced back onto a plane to be returned to a place where an epidemic is raging?

          I suspect many people would be horrified at the extent to which a cessation of trade would directly and immediately affect us. Now I understand that, from a virus protection point of view, trade could still go on but how may of our trading partners would take offense? Some have massive leverage.

          The statistics outside China are still giving mixed messages. Italy and Japan have 8% of serious/critical cases where Korea has 0.5%. It is highly likely that there is some problem of data collection or reporting in Korea. They have more dead than serious/critical which is really only possible if people who develop serious symptoms are dying very quickly. The number of deaths is not disproportionate to the number of infections, rapid death does not seem the likely explanation. If the low number of patients requiring intensive care is real that is good news for them and gives a little hope that hospital facilities may not be overwhelmed, or not be overwhelmed so rapidly. But, like the miracle cure, I don’t hold out huge hope.

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      william x

      Bill,

      I fear that what ever course the government decides upon it will be criticised by the MSN and by members of the public.

      If borders are closed and there is a large loss to the economy in tourism, business, investment and freedom of travel, people and the MSN will scream loudly that it is the governments fault.

      If borders are open with business as usual and 125000 people pass away due to covid19, people and the same MSN will also scream loudly that it is the governments fault.

      The Government is in a catch 22 situation.

      I just hope the Govt chooses the safety of life as their priority.

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        tonyb

        I am sure this is one of those instances where Jo would like to be proved spectacularly wrong. It is sensible to lay in supplies, it is sensible to ban flights arriving from badly hit areas.It is sensible to personally avoid crowds and perhaps to ban large crowds such as at sporting fixtures Closing down a country? That is far more difficult.

        It strikes me that those so concerned about coronavirus find themselves in a situation very similar to those we look on aghast in sceptical climate blogs such as this.

        This week we saw in Bristol St Greta preaching to a semi hysterical crowd of youngsters. We see XR and their middle class cohorts becoming hysterical over what they see as a clear and present danger to life on this planet due to mans co2. XR can dig up University lawns with impunity

        They think of themselves as rational. We think of them as wildly over reacting and without definitive proof of their wilder claims.

        We reluctantly put off a visit to the Nice and Menton carnivals in France earlier this week and were smugly satisfied when both were cancelled.

        So there is much we can do to take sensible precautions but the current concerns do enable us to walk a mile in the boots of the more hysterical warmists and perhaps see the fear that the young in particular are engendering about climate, helped by the MSM and the social media bubbles.

        Stay safe and Jo, I do hope you are wrong big time

        With greetings from England

        Tonyb

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          Bulldust

          Footy season is getting cranked up in earnest just as we may be getting break outs of Covid-19. Imagine how popular banning attendance at footy game would be.

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      TedM

      “Let’s be optimistic, call it 0.5%. Deaths in the next six months: Australia, 125,000; Canada, 175,000; New Zealand, 25,000, USA, 1.6m; UK, 300,000. Geddit?”

      WOW that is mega optimistic Jo. However I pray it is correct.

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    PeterS

    All speculation. No one really knows how far this is going to spread and what percentage of the population will be infected let alone die. So far it’s very small but it still could explode into a full pandemic. So it would make a lot of sense to stop all travelling overseas for a while unless people are properly tested and verified they don’t carry the virus, at least until we know more about the virus itself.

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      Bill In Oz

      II’ve been reading your comments Peter.
      Always you’ve doubted that this disease is significant.
      Not one tittle of the flood of evidence here or elsewhere has changed your opinion.
      So I will stop my eyes to your views form now on.

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      • #
        PeterS

        You are misreading my posts. I am saying this is not as yet a pandemic by definition but we should take all necessary steps to avoid it becoming one, including stopping all overseas travelling to and from every country until we are sure things under control. Perhaps it’s too late and the virus will spread and infect a significant proportion of the population leading eventually to millions of deaths. We simply do not know enough to say either way. I have stocked up on essential items just in case.

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          OriginalSteve

          Interestingly, watching the Bolshevik Collective tonight, all the classic head-in-sand comments are being made like “dont have 2 weeks supplies , its all good dont worry”.

          Ok…alarm bells…….

          I recall a quote from the movie “Contagion” which seems to indicate the gummint will basically come clean on this mess, right when it becomes obvious how stupid things could get, but its too late for most people. Hello medical martial law.

          If I was a betting man ( Im not ) I’d almost say thus is a global set up. The fact the chinese waited so long to do anything makes a reasonable person wonder if it was apparently to maximise the spread.

          And you also have the muppets on free to air leftist tv bagging out anyone who puts some supplies aside as a “moron”.

          Another alarm bell.

          Watching the leftist galahs on a fence acting like its no big deal to keep the sheeple calm makes me think this might be damn big, mostly for the societal dislocation its going to cause.

          My thoughts are prep now, or spend time in a govt “plague” camp.

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            PeterS

            As I’ve stated elsewhere we are talking about the lives of potentially millions of people if this virus is as serious as some are speculating. So we need to be biased more towards the precautionary principle rather than the other way and be blasé about it all. At the moment we are taking the former path. The real question though is where does one draw the line? That’s impossible to answer in advance so it will require us to be realistic about it; preparation and contingencies coupled with close monitoring of the situation. Perhaps at some stage a snap decision will have to be made to close the borders. The same applies to all nations. I don’t envy the person who has to decide if and when. Personally I would close them now but that’s just me being ultra careful. Perhaps it’s too late anyway. Time will tell.

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        “from”?

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      Analitik

      What’s in a name? Just because the WHO won’t call it a pandemic (there is some speculation that this is because there is a sizable bond that pays out in this event) doesn’t mean that it hasn’t spread globally, killed people in multiple countries and is still spreading through communities where outbreaks have been confirmed.

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    Geoffrey Williams

    The rational seems to be we have a pretty serious virus, actually a pandemic, that is spreading worldwide and quickly and we have two choices;
    1. Do we shut down all movements of people, by air, by sea and by land and attempt to stop the the spread of the virus and in doing so stifle the economy but gain time. This first option would I think be most unpopular with the young especially those who have made arrangements to travel.
    2. Allow movement of people all across the world to travel about their business and holidays, with some quarantine restrictions, and in doing so save the economy.
    In the second option people will spread the disease for sure. But the young and fit will mostly get over the illness and may require quarantine, but it’s a risk many seem to be prepared to take. In simple terms it is shut down business and save people’s lives in particular the elderly vs the greater interest of the economy.
    GeoffW

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      Kalm Keith

      I guess we’ll only be sure about the best course of action in about six months.

      This is a very confused situation.

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      Kalm Keith

      I guess we’ll only be sure about the best course of action in about six months.

      This is a very confused situation.

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      Bill In Oz

      No one is stopping Aussies travelling overseas
      Or even going to China & Iran,
      If they want to roll the dice with their own lives.
      But when they come back from Corona 19 Virus diseased countries,
      They will be required to spend time in isolation.
      If they are not willing to do that to protect their own nation
      They are self centered dumbnuts !

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        OriginalSteve

        Or it helps sprwad the rotten thing…..

        Im starting to smell what looks like a dastardly act. I hope im wrong.

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      el gordo

      I made the suggestion earlier that the elderly have a choice of staying at home this winter or going to the top end for a holiday. This could be activated fairly quickly if the virus shows signs of going rampant.

      The aim of the game is to gain more time until they come up with a cure.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        EG News just in ABC : 2 Indonesians have been diagnosed with COVID 19
        They caught it in Indonesia from an infected Japanese tourist.
        The warm humid stops the virus hypothesis does not hold any more
        Less hope now also !

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        • #
          el gordo

          Okay thanks, all old people will have to stay home and get meals on wheels.

          10

        • #
          el gordo

          Those two Indonesian women picked the virus up from a Japanese friend who lives in Malaysia.

          Even the President of the US thinks the virus will disappear in the NH summer.

          ‘There’s a variety of reasons that influenza and cold infections plummet in the summer, but a major one is that warm, humid weather can make it harder for respiratory droplets to spread viruses.

          “The droplets that carry viruses do not stay suspended in humid air as long, and the warmer temperatures lead to more rapid virus degradation,” says Elizabeth McGraw, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University.’

          Time Magazine

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          • #
            Andrew McRae

            Big Government becoming Little China in South Australia.
            Marshall’s new law for medical detentions.
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDpqHNQiENw

            Can’t get the quarantine benefit without the freedom cost apparently.

            Was waiting for the Premier to say “the power you give me I will lay down when this crisis has abated” but oddly enough he must have forgotten to say that part.

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            Bill In Oz

            Malaysia & Indonesia : both warm tropical countries !

            Please explain EG ?

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            • #

              If the virus has not run rampant in Indonesia yet like it has in Iran there is still hope that the tropics and hot weather is better.

              But the tropics still get the Flu. It’s not as seasonal and humidity levels matter. Influenza viruses need humidity to help them survive drying out at high temp. So hot dry weather seems best for us.

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    Rocket Rod

    Whilst I don’t class myself as a prepper I do have a 3 year stockpile of everything I would normally use.
    I could stay home for 3 years as it stands now.
    Friends aren’t smirking anymore.
    Most people however live in condition green and have virtually no understanding of the big bad world, history, nature, cycles and cyclic events, with the predictable consequence they will be the most unprepared and hardest hit for any major life altering event, and we’re sure seeing reality play out right now…
    Closing the borders completely will crash the economy (and not forgetting that most people are in debt, live payday to payday and so can’t afford to have their jobs or income put at risk, and the govt knows it and only thinks of the next election) and given that all governments everywhere are virtually broke (hence the fake CO2 lie tax grab…) they will only engage in reactive token gesture responses unless they are put in a burning platform scenario and we’re not even close to that.
    So yes, everyone should start stockpiling a 6 month or more reserve of canned foods,rice,pasta,muesli,beans etc which will keep unrefrigerated for many years. Skip the bottled water BS though. It always has been a crazy expensive fad and the odds of the mains water not being available is virtually zero. Powdered anti-oxidant/anti-inflammatory products like ginger,turmeric, ascorbic acid, chilli, garlic, spirulina etc are highly recommended. A broad range of medical supplies would be a good idea.
    At best the above could save your life but at worst you’ve saved by buying at todays prices and I’m sure all have noticed how todays specials were last years normal shelf prices.
    Interesting times ahead.

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      OriginalSteve

      Good advice.

      People poke fun at common sense, but it going to bite them.

      Several Christian news serices in the US are also telling people to be ready to sit it out at home or wind up in a govt fema/”plague camp” with zero hope of earning an income….

      Knew those schools with 6′ high fences would be used one day…. If schools are shut down , they can use them as internment camps for corona victoms….how convenient…

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      PeterS

      Very sensible precautions, not just for the current issue but also future ones that are bound to occur. Also note more and more nations are at zero or negative interest rates. Some actually are giving people money for taking out loans to buy houses. Trump has made it know he wants negative interest rates. The stage is being set for the next financial crisis.

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        Kalm Keith

        I think in a roundabout way they also believe that people shouldn’t work. It makes life too hard.

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        • #
          PeterS

          We have become too soft. School children are now complaining about too much stress over NAPLAN. So what happens when they enter the real world? Die of a panic attack?

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    • #
      John F. Hultquist

      In rural settings folks have wells that need electricity. City folks not so much.
      We keep some drinking water in bottles, that I filter, package, and label.
      We have a small stream that can provide cleaning and flushing water; and I have a filter, if need be, to clean some of that.
      This virus thing likely won’t impact water supplies, but in general any list of things to stockpile ought to include both types of water — pure and not-so-pure.
      What sort of containers might determine the difference for some.

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    Peter C

    What happened to Latin?

    I studies Latin for a few years at school. The main chance I have had to use it is human anatomy.

    The doctor in the video above, uses alveoli and alveolus interchangeably. After comparing the airways to a tree he says at 1:58; “

    instead of leaves at the end of all these things is an alveoli

    Later he correctly identifies alveolus (singular) and alveoli (plural) form of the word.

    Another rather pathetic and inconsequential example of our formidable cultural heritage being lost.

    Origin: from Latin, ‘small cavity’, diminutive of alveus.

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      Environment Skeptic

      Thanks Peter. I am ruthless with the intelligentsia too.Thanks for pointing that out…”goes crazy with inflamation” Sounds like a quack and not a serious source at all.

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      Environment Skeptic

      Very astute comment from you Peter. My previous one was not completely on topic.

      These are the little things, for example the one you point out IMO (in my opinion) that indicate a critical mind….not a mind that criticizes.

      Thanks for having a critical mind. :)

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        Environment Skeptic

        “alveolus (singular) and alveoli (plural)”
        Thanks.
        Personally, my ears always prick up when the narrator uses the word ‘we’ a lot.

        The same as always using the word ‘I’ a lot….phrases like ‘you need’, ‘you want to’, and so on…lol especially the “you want to” lol.

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          sophocles

          Not every word ending in -us is to be treated the same.
          eg:
          virus = singular
          viruses = plural

          I’ve occasionally thrown out virii as a plural (it’s so tempting) and nobody has called me on it!
          Is our English that bad these days?

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      Sapel Mirrup

      I also noticed this faux pas and agree in principle; I subscribe to a theory that the decline of civilisation is, among many things, reflected in the progressive loss of linguistic skills. Many a time I have argued with an acquaintance about this, and witnessed the response, “But language is in flux…”, which essentially excuses laziness. To be sure, it is indeed evolving. But my contention is that if a change results in a loss of resolution and more ambiguity, then it is like a health-compromising gene mutation. Language should be purposeful and precise. That is why several ancient languages had so many cases, and conversely, why the subjunctive is dwindling in Europe. Precise language conveys precise meaning. If we have to ask, “Did you mean this, or that or the other?” then we are wasting time and rendering communication less effective.

      Several useless changes have resulted in expressions like “I could care less” (lacking logic) or “based off of…” (effectively a double preposition, or “there’s fires all over the country” (lack of verb agreement) etc. etc.

      However, it’s hard to know how far to push this, since most, even intelligent, people don’t care. How many know, for example, that “agenda” is actually plural, and the singular is “agendum?”

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        Peter C

        How many know, for example, that “agenda” is actually plural, and the singular is “agendum?”

        Hardly anyone, I imagine.

        Does it matter?

        The ICU doctor knows what matters about treating Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). That does matter. So he cuts to the chase.

        The loss of Culture is more insidious. It is evident already in our comparative scholastic scores at the primary and secondary school levels.

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          Annie

          It grates with me when I hear Latin plurals used as singulars. There is the misuse of other words such as ‘secretive’ when ‘secret’ is what is meant, ‘substantive’ when it should be ‘substantial’, ‘proven’ for ‘proved’, (when did that creep into misuse? Did too many people take their cue from watching too many legal/cop shows on the telly box?).
          Agendum…singular, agenda…plural.
          Medium….singular, media…PLURAL!…please!
          Etcetera, etcetera. Too tired to type more…just as well, probably. Goodnight All.
          Grateful for Jo’s coverage of the Wuhan coronavirus.

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            Roger Knights

            ” ‘proven’ for ‘proved’, (when did that creep into misuse? Did too many people take their cue from watching too many legal/cop shows on the telly box?).”
            ———

            “until [or unless] proven guilty” has been around for a long time.

            Here’s what one quote I found while Googling says:
            “Proved is the simple past tense and past participle of the verb prove, which means to show evidence for something. Proven is the adjective form of this word, and can be used as a past participle in some instances. Most places prefer proved as a past participle and proven as an adjective.”

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            • #
              Annie

              Yes, legal use always understood. The word ‘proven’ has crept into other usages for no good reason, when ‘proved’ was always used in the past; continues to be used by me at any rate!

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                sophocles

                “Not proven” is a Scottish legal term (ME) but ‘proven’ survives in other northern dialects (from ME).

                Fowlers (Modern English Usage) is worth reading on this, I thought. I’m going to have to read that bit again and parse it carefully to see if it actually reaches a conclusion.

                Of course, American English uses either word interchangeably in about equal quantities. A lot of Yorkshire is present in American English: off of, prove/-n,-d and others.

                Yorkshire Slang made it around the world thoroughly before last century was half over.

                And then there’s my favourite road sign:
                http://www.griffiths-signs.co.uk/blog/when-in-rome-and-yorkshire

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            Russell

            Surely the prime example has to be ‘data’ used as singular when the singular form should be ‘datum’.

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        • #
          Sapel Mirrup

          Does it matter?
          No, not in this instance. I realise that this was a brief digression without practical relevance to the aetiology, but contributed to it in passing because, as you say, the destruction of culture is insidious, and is demonstrated by distinct markers, some of which are not widely recognised.

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      Lewis P Buckingham

      Well it was not a particularly happy video.
      Three out of ten die in ICU. What he failed to state was the duration of ventilation.A friend of mine was the longest surviving ventilated patient at Westmead and was operated on 12 times for acute pancreatitis.He was on the machine for 7 months.Were the times on ventilation shorter than for other cases like this, and there was less elective cardiac surgery, for example, it may be possible to put patients onto CPAP machines, or wheel them out for home use, diluting the need for ICU ventilation.
      Although its not PC I was worried about the Sydney Gay Mardi Gras continuing in the face of this pandemic.
      Big organisations such as Cisco, have already simply cancelled large international conferences.
      https://www.arnnet.com.au/article/671016/coronavirus-cancels-cisco-live-melbourne/ This one was for 8500 people from overseas.
      Smaller companies are quietly ruling, no national or international flights.
      We all need to plan carefully while looking after each other.

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    DonS

    Hi Jo

    I just want to know if you have any evidence that this virus is being spread human to human in Australia? From what I see all cases here have been imported from the northern hemisphere. Has this corona virus managed to break the usual seasonal limitations associated with this family of viruses?

    I expect in a few months we will see human to human transmission in Aus but we still have time to prepare. I would also expect the number of cases in the northern hemisphere to drop quickly as temperatures warm up coming into summer. People speculating about the numbers of dead in 6 months might want to consider this. By the time the Olympic games start in July in Tokyo I doubt there will be any cases of corona, flu or rhino virus being spread up north. It will be our turn to deal with it by then.

    Unlike you I’m not too worried about the impact in Australia, first world medical systems like the USA seem to be coping pretty well at this time. It should be note however that Africa is currently in the grip of bad locust season which will leave a number of countries there in serious danger of famine come winter. Add this virus getting lose out there and things could get very, very ugly indeed.

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      el gordo

      In regards to Africa, the virus doesn’t like humidity or heat.

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      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Thanks.I felt safer going out today in all the humidity and heat. A little humid and a little warm today in Victoria. :)

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          el gordo

          Its winter we have to worry about, strongly suggest Morrison should organise a mass migration of grey nomads to the top end.

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    • #

      No evidence yet of spread in Australia. Californians would have said that too three days ago.

      If you stock up now, and it is weeks early, the shops can restock. Sensible eh?

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        Bulldust

        Spread in QLD seems inevitable after the Iranian woman returned from that country and treated several customers (40 IIRC) for facials at the beauty salon in which she worked.

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        Peter C

        If you stock up now, and it is weeks early, the shops can restock. Sensible eh?

        Sensible? I hope not, but I have none the less started some stocking up.

        How much is enough. Some one on this blog says he can stick it out for 3 years. I was planning on 2 weeks.
        I assume that if supplies are not re-established in 2 weeks we are all doomed, except some remote farmers.

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      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day DonS
      ABC 7pm news tonight reported two cases, one a doctor who hasn’t been outside Oz, the other a sister of a man who has just returned from Iran. Doctor’s source of infection not clear.
      Cheers
      Dave B

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    a happy little debunker

    There is abundant misinformation across the globe on this virus to derail any & all policy settings to tackle the eventual global pandemic.

    Minimise your risks, where and how you can.

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    Peter Fitzroy

    Since we refuse to restrict Italians, or South Koreans, we are freakin doomed.

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      Bill In Oz

      Yes Peter, your right !
      Our gubbermint has not the balls
      To stop them – YET !
      But when their own balls start hurting from Australians getting angry
      I suspect they will find some dutch courage.
      Just a bit too late !

      10

  • #
    Ian

    “Do the maths, WHO estimates 1% CFR (Case Fatality Rate. Let’s be optimistic, call it 0.5%. Deaths in the next six months: Australia, 125,000; Canada, 175,000; New Zealand, 25,000, USA, 1.6m; UK, 300,000. Geddit?

    Like others I did the maths and, like others, came to the same conclusion. Your figures are based on 100% of the population becoming infected. Can you advise which viral diseases have a 100% infection rate? I can’t find any.

    And disagree with your assertion that this is not the flu no-one has immunu=ity to COVID-19. Are you certain that somewhere in Wuhan for instance no one has had exposure to an animal or animals that have the virus or a virus that is very similar? Have you never heard of Edwards Jenner? Also are you unaware that there have been four flu pandemics due to antigenic shift?

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    • #

      OK. So I’ll stick with 1% mortality and 50% infection and all the numbers remain the same.

      Perhaps I’m way off and only 20,000 people die in Australia. That’s “great”.

      Our hospitals can only protect 2000 ICU patients. It doesn’t matter how great your system is if you can’t blink more ventilators and expert teams into existence.

      111

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Ever increasing governance is probably more infectious, and the associated mortality, than the disease itself.

        The question of how people are eating/surviving during the loss of work and so forth also needs to be scrutinized.

        An ICU for the unemployed should also be considered.

        22

      • #
        David A

        Current global mortality ( two days ago) was over 7 percent based on CURED vs Fatal.
        Which, by the way , is exactly how the flu mortality has been accessed. Calling it 1 percent fatal is just wrong in the middle of exponential growth and an almost 3 week mean time to death.

        Jo is not wrong. One percent mortality is 10 times the flu deaths. This is way above one percent mortality, before hospitals are overwhelmed. The mean flu virus R0 is 1.3. This virus is likely at least double that. Credible numbers up to R7. Many studies show between 3 and 4. A 2.6 means twice as many cases as the flu BEFORE considering immunity. Jo does not need to be 100 percent correct on zero immunity. 99 percent correct, even 90 percent correct does pretty much the same thing.

        Greatly reduced population immunity, Much higher fatality rate. Much greater RO, all make this guaranteed to overwhelm hospitals, panic the population, and send the CFR very high in the best health care nations.

        Jo is not wrong, and may be understating

        There is a reason China destroyed their economy.

        71

        • #
          David A

          An ICU for the unemployed.
          ???

          10

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            David, it is to look after the ones who have lost their jobs and are living on last weeks pay.

            It is not the virus that is killing these vulnerable people, factory workers, the people who made sneakers so cheap, electronic assembly line workers and so forth the way i see it.

            10

        • #
          David A

          Yes, I simply did not know what you meant by ICU.

          If this virus goes critical in other nations we must somehow keep utilities, and food supplies flowing. ( Apparently China is failing here, at least on the food. I have not heard about utility failures, it sucecess).

          Yes, at some point we may need a partial reset, debt forgiveness holiday, etc…

          00

        • #
          David A

          Yes, I simply did not know what you meant by ICU.

          If this virus goes critical in other nations we must somehow keep utilities, and food supplies flowing. ( Apparently China is failing here, at least on the food. I have not heard about utility failures, it sucecess).

          Yes, at some point we may need a partial reset, debt forgiveness holiday, etc…

          00

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Ever increasing governance is probably more infectious, and the associated mortality, than the disease itself.

      The question of how people are eating/surviving during the loss of work and so forth also needs to be scrutinized.

      An ICU for the unemployed should also be considered.

      13

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Ian,

      Did you not see Jo’s estimation at 1.1 above?

      Her figures relate to per 1 million population based on 60% infection rate as per the three references used.

      As a worse case outcome it’s reasonable in my view and needs to be risk managed down.

      Doing nothing is not risk management in these circumstances.

      Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

      81

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        “Have you never heard of Edwards Jenner? Also are you unaware that there have been four flu pandemics due to antigenic shift?”

        Exactly!

        Some people just don’t have a clue.

        40

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Yes I have. And, it Edward Jenner, not Edwards.

          And it makes little difference in this situation.

          Immunization is only possible when there’s a vaccine. Currently there isn’t one. It will take at least 12 months to develop one.

          That the reason this infection needs to be slowed.

          Have you never heard of Winter? It’s less than three months away.

          60

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Of course, it depends on the length of time an individual is in ICU and the time it takes for the 60% of the population to contract the virus.

        If rate of contraction can be slowed and the time in ICU minimized, the capacity of the ICUs to meet the demand improves considerably. Nevertheless, in the worst case outcome it will still be a disaster on the current numbers.

        The risk needs to be managed down. Quickly.

        30

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Something funny happened there. Perhaps it didn’t like the missing it’s?

          10

        • #
          Lewis P Buckingham

          My thoughts too.
          There does not appear to be an effective vaccine yet against feline coronavirus induced infectious feline peritonitis.
          CSL is allowing the release and use of its adjuvant to assist in the production of a human coronavirus vaccine in Australia.
          I dare say their shares will do well if this vaccine works.

          40

      • #
        Another Ian

        Chiefio “Then there is hope. But hope is not a strategy”

        20

    • #
      william x

      Ian

      your quote:

      “Like others I did the maths and, like others, came to the same conclusion. Your figures are based on 100% of the population becoming infected. Can you advise which viral diseases have a 100% infection rate? I can’t find any.”

      end quote.

      Ian,

      You and the “others” are wrong my friend.

      Nowhere does Jo assume or state a 100% infection rate.

      Here is math 101, my friend.

      I resolved to find truth by using a simple pen and paper:

      There are 25000000 Australians

      Jo assumes that 50% may become infected with covid-19

      that equals 12500000 Australians

      assume a 1% mortality rate

      that equals 125000 Australians.

      I conclude Jo’s figures are correct on her assumptions in her post above.

      Ian. Re your quote, I believe you and the “others” have made the wrong conclusion. This has possibly been attained by an ineptitude, mistake or incompetence in your math.

      50

      • #
        Chad

        Why such high expected levels of infections ?
        Wuhan city, the claimed source if this, have now supposedly screened 99% of the population and the level of the infections is what ? 80-90,000 ?…
        In a city of 10+ million, thats 1% infected !
        And the fatalities are around 3000 ?
        Why would you anticipate 12.5m , (50%), infected in Australia with all the preventions we have in place ?.there is no logic to that reasoning !
        Should ‘nt we expect a lower infection rate than Wuhan ?

        10

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Of course that’s RIGHT Chad !
          The only problem is that those are the officially doctored and released Chinese figures.
          While every other indicator says something different.
          The strength of the Chinese response !
          All the non official evidence constantly disappearing !
          The plumes of SO2 in the air around Wuhan from crematoriums operating 24/7 for 7 weeks
          I saw an estimate of how many dead bodies had been burned in mid Feb : 35,000 then !
          So in the interests of openess & honesty, I think we should all know who you are representing here.
          China maybe ?

          30

          • #
            Chad

            I represent “ logical thought” rather than speculation and conspiracy theorys.
            ..what is your angle bill ? The Retailers association ?….
            .suggesting we all stock up for the end of civilisation , shut the windows , lock the doors, and hide under a Duna !

            02

            • #
              Graeme No.3

              Speaking of conspiracy theories how about “This is all a plot by the Canberra Swamp aimed at reducing the numbers of elderly”, thus simultaneously reducing those who vote conservately & reducing the Federal government payout in pensions, and thus allowing more public servants to be hired and pay rises for all public servants.

              Of course if you believed that garbage, you probably believe in AGW and Climate Extinction.

              00

              • #
                Graeme No.3

                Sorry, Extinction Rebellion. Always hard to keep up with these changes in name.

                Nice picture coming available of some Swedish schoolgirl (avoiding school) in boots, heavy coat, scarf and beanie and assuring a small crowd in Bristol UK that the World is burning up, before departing in a heated vehicle to a heated hotel.
                Not sure what her point was.

                10

      • #
        sophocles

        I know where you went wrong, William!
        You didn’t model this on a computer.

        10

    • #

      I’m with Ian on this. Even if we had open borders, there is lots we can do to keep the infections rate down to a few percent of the population and even then this would occur over a period months. In the long term this will rise to 10s of percent, during which better treatments, rising community immunity and immunisations will keep rates of new infections down.

      I reckon June is the month to watch. Alarmism seems to be taking hold.

      21

    • #
      Meglort

      But if you believe a single word that comes from the WHO, then I have a bridge to sell you.

      30

  • #
    Springdam

    First death in Aussie. 72 y.o.man in Perth. Yes, we have best medical care however the doctors vid. is very well explained. Possibly explains reasons behind flu deaths also. Hope this isn’t man made euthanasia!!

    20

  • #
    thingadonta

    Prediction is hard, especially the future.

    125,000 wont die in Australia if the disease is contained.
    Maybe it will happen, but my guess is it won’t.

    20

    • #
      PeterS

      Indeed. I just don’t understand the point of speculating. It’s rife here for example. Nations should be and I believe in fact are focusing on monitoring the situation very closely and taking all measures necessary no matter how draconian it might appear up front to try and mitigate the spread of the virus. For example, our own government has prepared a plan and is at stage 1. If things get worse, schools will be shut down and flights grounded. Time will tell if such steps will be necessary.

      21

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Horse. Stable. Bolted.

        50

        • #
          PeterS

          It’s not that simple. Yes the “horse” has bolted but the full extent of the effect is obviously not yet know. So the precautionary principle would dictate we should close all borders now rather than later to play it safe. Of course most nations are reluctant to do that for financial and economic reasons. They might be forced to do so eventually as the death toll rises. It’s really a case of “hide and seek” rather than the “horse has bolted”.

          21

      • #
        David A

        Reasonable considerations of possible scenarios is common sense, and cause to common sense actions.

        Personally I think Jo is way underestimating.
        Current global mortality ( two days ago) was over 7 percent based on CURED vs Fatal.
        Which, by the way , is exactly how the flu mortality has been accessed. Calling it 1 percent fatal is just wrong in the middle of exponential growth and an almost 3 week mean time to death.

        20

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Think of it as the COVID 8.5 scenario.

      :-)

      PS: I’m working on it KK

      50

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    For those interested this Thai Medical info site is providing 2-3 updates a day about Corona Virus 19 & COVID 19
    The government’s action yesterday & the death of an Australian in Perth today are well reported.

    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-thailand-reports-first-death-from-coronavirus

    40

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    We all knew that Iran was hosting an epidemic of CORONA virus 19
    We are knew that hundreds of people were dying from it.
    The facts were broadcast far & wide -despite the Iranian government’s fierce opposition.

    But our government took no action until yesterday.. Such was Hunt’s incompetence !

    Well know we also know that more Iranians flew into Australia in the past 2 weeks & were infected with the virus. In Queensland and now NSW & Victoria.
    The ABC has just reported it late on this Sunday night when most of us are not watching.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-01/coronavirus-updates-live/12014508

    I suggested a week ago that in htis situation people in Iran fearing this disease would flee it & carry it with them. That’s what happens in plagues !

    Well it has happened.

    Once again, thanks Hunt !

    You deserve a right royal kick with a steel capped boot

    40

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      would have been good to get some media coverage on the survivors…an interview with what it takes to beat the phage/plague. Shame to bother with so much bad news if a good news story is not available, particularly on what the survivors have to say.

      10

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        There are other survivors out there. Lets find out what it takes from the feedback of real life victims. Does anyone have a link to a video on a survivor raconteuring how survival was achieved in their cases?

        What vitamins did they take etc

        10

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Many Australians now do NOT trust this government or it’s Health minister.
    They think he has stuffed up.
    And so they are taking the steps they think will help them in the coming weeks.
    And now supermarkets are selling out many items like bread rice, tinned food etc.
    Bare shelves in some super markets.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-panic-buying-frenzy-hits-supermarkets/news-story/14b846411913d38517355889c94028d9

    20

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Some news from the survivors would be good. Lots of interviews would be good from multiple sources. Surely there are many who would like to hear from survivors. What they thought helped and so on.

      50

  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    Jo, what you suggest is almost what I do during flu season. I have a strong tendency to come down with bronchial pneumonia when I get ill with flu. Hence I don’t travel by air, bus, or train in the winter or go places with large numbers of people. I keep my vaccinations up to date including pneumonia. I wash my hands frequently and shop as little as possible. I consume supplements by the hand full. Garlic, C, and zinc are increased as required. I am almost 83 so something must be working.

    I have had nothing but a cold or laryngitis for almost two decades. The new corona virus only means I double down on what I already do. Though surviving a several month apocalypse will be a challenge.

    100

  • #
    Bob-l

    It’s not complicated at all. Italy has a population of 60 million and 300 cases that means there is less than 0.00002 chance of an infected person from Italy arriving on our shores. Put another way 1 visitor from Italy in every 200000 Italian arrivals will be infected. This is not sufficient to close borders to Italy.

    The borders need to be closed where the statistics indicate that infection frequency from a particular country will exceed our ability to detect and trace.

    See, science and Math prevail again, just like the math demonstrates global warming is a non problem.

    Prudence, not panic

    23

    • #

      Italy’s current known infections = 1128.

      That’s doubled twice since 25-feb. So doubling at least every 3 days.

      How many more are incubating now? Unknown.
      Tracing and tracking is a desperate high risk game, a last resort. Not the preferred method with an asymptomatic spreadable condition that has fatal consequences.

      Cost of allowing in one case which may not be detected quickly is potentially thousands of deaths. ie imagine one asymptomatic person — youth — infects a class of other young people who don’t develop pnumonia, don’t report themselves to a doctor but go home and infect extended families, including older at risk people. We find out after three or four weeks as older folk end up in emergency care, but they are not tested initially for Covid-19 because they have no contact with a known carrier.

      Even with a tiny percentage already Italy has spread the infection to Austria, Croatia, Greece and Switzerland and Algeria in Africa.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        And Spain Jo
        Via that hotel in Tennerife
        The Canary islands.
        1000 + people in lockdown in that hotel
        Another Diamond princess.

        20

      • #
        Bob-l

        Alright Jo so it’s 1 in 50000. Same point. The time to act might be say a risk of 1 per month depending on arrivals from Italy. Say we get 5000 arrivals per month from Italy that’s at the point Italy has 10000 cases. The risk then is still very low.

        We may be nearing that threshold now as you might estimate Italy already has 10000 infections where a closure might be worth doing. All I’m saying here is let’s not get carried away and use the same prudent science and math as we do on the AGW issue. As I said the statistical math to manage closures is not difficult and we should be prudent AND objective.

        PS on the temperature issue SARS is seasonal and this is a SARS virus.

        00

    • #
      PeterS

      Not that simple. We are talking about the lives of potentially millions of people if this virus is as serious as some are speculating. So we need to be biased more towards the precautionary principle rather than the other way and be blasé about it all. The real question though is where does one draw the line? That’s impossible to answer in advance so it will require preparation and contingencies coupled with close monitoring of the situation. Perhaps at some stage a snap decision will have to be made to close the borders. The same applies to all nations. I don’t envy the person who has to decide if and when.

      30

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        PeterS:
        Remember the comment about dictatorships being more sensative to public disapproval than elected governments.
        When the public starts murmuring about a problem the dictator has 3 choices;
        Ignore it and hope the problem disappears (usually followed by a change of dictator)
        Suppress all those murmurings (often followed by a change of dictator)
        Start frantic efforts to be seen to be doing something.
        I would suggest that Xi in China is using the third approach (along with a bit of the second).

        Morrison doesn’t have much option because any frantic efforts will be portrayed as wrong, and the other two aren’t within his powers (and would still be portrayed as wrong). And he is handicapped by having Greg Hunt as the Health Minister.
        Poor Fellow, SloMo.

        10

  • #
    John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia

    And I am going to Bali on holiday. Hopefully the surf lineup will be empty.

    62

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      John, Going to Bali will be problematic I think !
      be prepared for a 14 days quarantine when you return to Oz

      50

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    Tim Cook of Apple gave an interview yesterday, and indicated that Apple is re-opening
    stores in China and the supply chain is being re-vitalized.
    He claims to be convinced the outbreak is waning in China.

    This is likely awful news.

    It means that the Chinese have calculated that they should force, as they can, their population to
    go back to business as usual, and accept the mortality with most people just getting ill and recovering
    and a quorum available to run the factories. Will the world quarantine China against it’s propaganda
    assertions that things there have run their course? Will we accept trade from a China that is willing to run their
    economy normally against 10,000,000 or more deaths. Do we have any doubts that the regime in China will accept
    and cover up 10,000,000 or more deaths. Given the state of public health ans services in China outside the 400,000,000 nominally middle class, the
    number may well be much larger.
    Chinese cooperation has been absent and caused difficulty, Chinese defiance will doom most of the rest of the world to also experiencing the full
    pandemic

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  • #
    JC

    Ah, the old Germ Theory again has us in its grip. First sign of fever: stop eating, go to bed, drink only clean water. Don’t break the fast until the tongue returns to pink and the irises are clear. End of problem unless the body didn’t have enough vitality to begin with, in which case it would have died anyway.

    [What, no /sarc/?]ED

    53

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    Thanks Jo.

    NOTE: Washington State has had a death, 1st coronavirus death in USA. Not much info but it was a 50 year old with prior health issues. Regardless, the State Government has declared a state of emergency. This declaration only means that resources and information are being enhanced and precautions increased. It does not mean that people are dying on the streets, and so on.

    Oh,:
    “Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!” Dr. Jerome M. Adams wrote on Twitter, addressing fears over the spread of the virus in the U.S.
    “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!”

    60

    • #
      PeterS

      I would have thought wearing a mask in public would help to reduce the spread of a virus if the wearer happens to have the virus. I suppose it depends on how the virus is spread, something we are not absolutely certain of at the moment.

      50

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        As I understand it, the facemask habit wasn’t to stop infecting others but to stop getting another infection.

        As there are at least 100 Rhino viruses and immunity to one doesn’t mean immunity to all, this might be considered a useful practice if the viruses spead by air only.

        10

  • #
    Bulldust

    Washington State has declared a state of emergency.

    https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/proclamations/20-05%20Coronavirus%20%28final%29.pdf

    Guess where my April cruise ends /doh

    50

  • #
    PeterS

    According to the Chief Medical Officer the Australian government is operating on the basis that the World Health Organisation will soon declare COVID-19 a global pandemic.

    41

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      We all know that the WHO is incompetent.
      so why on earth should our bureaucrats be relying on WHO to guide decisions ?
      Bugger !

      33

      • #
        PeterS

        Because that’s all we have. I rather trust them than a whole bunch of speculators and scaremongers that have infiltrated the internet. If you have a better source of information please let us all know. We would welcome it.

        21

        • #
          Analitik

          The WHO has done some great things in the past (eradication of smallpox has to rate as one of mankind’s great achievements).

          But under the guidance of bureaucrats like Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organisation is yet another intergovermental body working to further globalism. Their repeated guidance for countries not to restrict travel to/from China because it would be “unhelpful” points to globalism being more important to the WHO than controlling an outbreak.

          Sad.

          40

          • #
            Analitik

            Moderation test – globalism

            12

          • #
            Analitik

            Moderation test – intergovermental

            12

          • #
            Analitik

            Moderation test – eradication

            12

          • #
            Analitik

            Moderation test – bureaucrats

            12

            • #
              Analitik

              So one of you down-thumbers please explain to me why my original post was placed in moderation

              10

          • #
            PeterS

            I didn’t say they were perfect. Far from it. However, that’s all we got to go by at the moment. If we can’t trust them on this issue then who can we trust? Don’t forget, WHO gets a lot of their information from real doctors. Yes WHO have made some really bad decisions but in this case surely we can’t ignore their recommendations. If we are to believe we can’t then we might as well head for the hills.

            10

            • #
              Meglort

              No, just prepare, make plans and support your local community to do the same.
              If things get tough, then don’t exacerbate the tough.

              Take vitamins to help your immune system improve its odds (C, D3, B3, Zn…)

              One of the interesting insertions into the virus was gain of function to allow it to replicate in T-cells – likely from the HIV segments, so you need to ensure that your body keeps producing these from the healthy cells that remain, when you likely catch it.

              Ones that have been invaded only produce more viroids. When you lose that battle you die.

              An early study that was done in Wuhan had good stats on this, that the white-blood cell count could be used as a reliable indicator for the death of the critical (ICU) cases. The ratios he found there have stood mostly correct to today (82% mild, 13% severe, 5% critical).

              10

              • #
                PeterS

                If people think they have the virus they should go straight to a doctor who might then send them to the hospital to be taken care of as best as possible. No mucking around.

                02

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                All people who think they have the virus
                Are being told to ring ahead so that quarantine precautions can be taken at the medical center.

                DO NOT SIMPLY SHOW UP AND ASK FOR A CONSULT !
                THAT WAY WILL LEAD TO THE INFECTION OF MEDICAL STAFF !

                30

              • #
                PeterS

                OK then go direct to emergency at a hospital. Still will run the risk of infecting others there but at least we skip the GP offices. Have to go somewhere where there are people. The official advice is to stay at home and be isolated.

                00

              • #
                David A

                Also be aware that if you are young healthy and don’t know if you have a regular flu or the virus, then, if the hospitals are being overwhelmed, then going or not is a difficult choice. In that scenario apparently you have a 90 percent chance of being fine, either surviving the virus, or the flu.
                Overwhelmed hospitals are very dangerous.

                00

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Ring Ahead !
              Even if going direct to hospital !

              10

        • #
      • #
        Kalm Keith

        The first mates name was Able, ready, willing and ,,, ,,,,

        Wasn’t the captain retired?

        10

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Go read here :
    https://www.thailandmedical.news/articles/news
    It does not kowtow to China as the WHO does !

    12

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      We have a couple of pro China trolls I think
      Red thumbing the best medical source available in Asia !

      20

      • #
        Meglort

        I think there are also some climate hoaxers lurking here too, that have stumbled into a common sense and real science zone, unwittingly.

        20

  • #
    joseph

    This contains information that I hadn’t coma across before. And it’s documented. It adds another level to the discussion. And quite an impressive presentation . . . . .

    ‘CORONAVIRUS-THE HIDDEN DANGER REVEALED’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVizW1OgQZQ&feature=emb_logo

    The part where he lays out what could be a potential catastrophic problem with the the strategy against Coronavirus begins at 1:07:30

    31

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Not oz focussed !
      USA focussed with video 1 hour 30 minutes !
      who has the time for it ?
      Not me !

      23

      • #
        joseph

        More OZ focused than you might imagine Bill.

        This isn’t just a USA situation you know.

        I suspect most people won’t find time to watch this. I’ll try to get a couple of paragraphs together later.

        Jo, I do think this video is a weighty contribution to the subject.

        40

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Hi jospeh

          whats the exec summary of the video please?

          20

          • #
            joseph

            (The time I gave on the comment above is quoted from the site where I found the link but was missing some footage so it would more correctly be 1:10:50 or thereabouts).

            It is observed that the people ill from the Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19, are suffering from a cytokine storm, (described in the video).

            There had been research done to develop a coronavirus vaccine around the time of the SARS outbreak. Mice were the animals involved and animals that had been vaccinated before they were introduced to the coronavirus responded with a cytokine storm. The animals who didn’t receive the vaccines didn’t have the same response when introduced to the virus.

            ‘Immunization with SARS Coronavirus Vaccines Leads to Pulmonary Immunopathology on Challenge with the SARS Virus’, is how the the article describing the research was headlined.

            Then the article . . . . .

            ‘Conclusions: These SARS-CoV vaccines all induced antibody and protection against infection with SARS-CoV. However, challenge of mice given any of the vaccines led to occurrence of Th2-type immunopathology suggesting hypersensitivity to SARS-CoV components was induced. Caution in proceeding to application of SARS-CoV vaccine in humans is indicated’.

            Limited studies were done on humans.

            Then a law was passed in China.

            ‘(Aug. 27, 2019) . . . . . The official Xinhua news agency states ‘the the Law provides for the ‘strictest’ vaccine management with tough penalties in order to ensure the country’s vaccine safety. . . . . . etc. . . . . . . . The Law will take effect on December 1, 2019 (art. 100)’ . . . . etc. . . . . ..

            The first reported coronavirus case was on Dec. 1, 2019 and there was no link to the seafood market.

            Not saying it couldn’t all be coincidence . . . . .

            That’s a rough outline. You get much more and the sources on the video. And the first hour gives information that puts it in a broader context.

            10

  • #
    Mike Jonas

    I haven’t read all the comments, so I may have missed things, but it seems to me that Jo is right to want to shut down the movement of people. Reducing the movement of people slows down the infection rate, and thus achieves two valuable benefits: it reduces the maximum burden on the health system, and it gives more time for counter-measures (cures, vaccines, etc). Those benefits still apply even if the eventual infection rate ends up at 100%.

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      PeterS

      Yes it’s the prudent thing to do but alas reality is different. Nations are taking it one step at a time. If things do get worse then they will take draconian steps but of course it might be too late by then. In fact it might already be too late. We simply do not know, not yet anyway.

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        OriginalSteve

        Part of me just thinks were goingto have to just mop up afterward.

        If its already inside Oz, apart from basic quarantine measures, there may not be a lot we can do.

        I noticed Gilead appear to be touting using an old ebola vaccine to stop this bug but both as a prphalactic and also as a theraputic mechanism to remove the bug.

        That raises a few questions, namely what commonality does Cov19 and Ebola have?

        And if I understood correctly from the multiple news articles Ive read, they have also used anti-HIV drugs with some effect.

        The thorny quesiton I have is – if, as some have postulated, this bug has had bits of HIV virus spliced into it, could that explain why the anti HIV drugs work?

        Just following lines of enquiry…..science is one big discovery voyage….

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        OriginalSteve

        https://www.health24.com/Medical/infectious-diseases/News/thai-doctors-say-they-are-successfully-treating-coronavirus-with-combo-of-flu-hiv-drugs-20200203

        “A bit of good news to brighten up the latest news reports on the Wuhan coronavirus is that a combination of flu- and HIV-drugs is showing promising results in curbing the virus.

        “On Sunday 2 February 2020, the Thai Ministry of Public Health announced that Bangkok doctors used a mixture of the flu drug oseltamivir and HIV treatments lopinavir and ritonavir on a 71-year old Chinese woman who contracted the virus. During 10 days of treatment, she only started showing signs of recovery when the combination of the above drugs was administered.

        “After treatment was started, doctors said her condition quickly improved and she tested negative for the virus within 48 hours.

        “According to a Reuters report, doctors have previously used these drugs individually to help curb the virus, but only now discovered that optimum results can be obtained by combining the two types of drugs.

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    Dennis

    New York Post via Michael Smith News website;

    Chinese scientists knew about the coronavirus and its deadly effects as early as December — but were ordered by government officials to suppress the evidence, according to a report.

    In late December, several genomics companies tested samples from sick patients in Wuhan — the center of the coronavirus outbreak — and noticed alarming similarities between their illnesses and the 2002 SARS virus, the Sunday Times of London reported, citing Chinese business news site Caixin Global.

    The researchers alerted Beijing of their findings — and on Jan. 3, received a gag order from China’s National Health Commission, with instructions to destroy the samples.

    Rather than hunkering down to contain the virus, Wuhan officials went ahead with their annual potluck dinner for 40,000 families.

    The alleged cover-up continued when representatives from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention visited Wuhan Jan. 8, where officials intentionally withheld information that hospital workers had been infected by patients — a telltale sign of contagion.

    News of the virus’ highly contagious nature didn’t surface publicly until Jan. 20. Wuhan was locked down and a mass quarantine ordered three days later.

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    Analitik

    OT – deep cycling of Li-ion batteries increases the likelihood of them spontaneously combusting.

    investigators at DNV GL—a global engineering standards firm contracted to investigate the root cause of one of the fires—said the common practice in South Korea of cycling the lithium-ion batteries from close to 0 percent to 100 percent and then back down again on a daily basis has led to extreme wear-and-tear on the systems and was an underlying cause of failures in the battery cells that sparked the fires

    Another nail in the coffin for batteries solving renewables intermittency

    https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/aggressive-loadshifting-could-increase-battery-fire-risk-inves.html

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    Bill In Oz

    The ABC has just published this report
    Citing the Insiders program
    “Australia’s Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton cited the spike in deaths and new cases as the reason Australia had banned travel from Iran but not from South Korea (3,150 cases, 16 deaths) or Italy (1,128 cases, 29 deaths). …..As the chief medical officer has pointed out, it’s not possible to extend the ban to every country,” he told Insiders host David Speers.

    Ummmmm ? Now that does not make sense Mr Dutton !
    No one is asking that the government to extend the ban to every country. But lots of us are saying :
    “Extend the ban to Italy & South Korea – NOW”
    And “You should have done it days ago !”

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      PeterS

      You are expecting too much of governments. They always act slowly. That’s reality. Otherwise, we wouldn’t have a host of the problems we have today.

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      PeterS

      But if they acted too quickly we would have a host of other problems. That’s how the cookie crumbles.

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      Geoffrey Williams

      Bill it’s about politics, nothing else ..
      Australian government doesn’t want to offend certain nations ..
      Nor does it want to get offside with the public who demand their freedom to travel.
      Meanwhile the virus will become rampant here as elsewhere in the world.
      The old and feeble will cop this disease while the rest of the population will be mildly inconvenienced. The economy comes first. That folks is the agenda.
      Tell me if I’m wrong ! ! !
      GeoffW

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        Bill In Oz

        Yes these dumbnuts do think that they Must listen
        To other countries when considering OUR well being
        That’s why I am firmly of the view that the electoral steel capped boot
        In the bums of any such dopey pollies is essential ..
        In such ways they learn that we the people are their masters !
        We boomers as an electoral cohort
        Can boomer the bastards to hell !

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        el gordo

        Geoff, you’re wrong. The government is taking a measured approach and switches will be flicked along the way to ensure balance and avoid alarm.

        All those silly old retirees who travel regularly need to get a life, pathetic bunch of individuals who don’t give a damn about their carbon footprint.

        Anyway, the whole population is going to be greatly inconvenienced and even when we finally get on top of it the world may well be in economic depression. A disaster beyond your wildest dreams, because it often leads to the nightmare of war.

        “Why would we need to be afraid of tiger’s dung since we are not scared of the tiger?” he said. “There is no one who died, and not a single Cambodian contracting the virus, it happened only to a Chinese man.”

        The man, who had traveled to Cambodia from Wuhan, was now almost recovered, Hun Sen said.

        The Diplomat

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      Rolf

      No they should have enforced quarantine weeks ago. Business can use video calls as well as schools as long as it’s needed. Only way to stop this.

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    Chrism

    moderna’s vaccine is being tested and a number of antivirals show promise … https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00003-1

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    OriginalSteve

    Pied Piper of climate nonsense……

    Sad really…..appears to be the clueless leading the gullible….

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6137462356001

    “Teenage activist Greta Thunberg has been accused of ruining a green space in the UK city of Bristol.

    “The young environmentalist led a 15,000 strong climate rally, which damaged the popular grounds.

    “The combination of thousands of people and heavy rain turned much of the grass into mud.

    “Bristol locals are now calling for Greta Thunberg’s event organisers to foot the bill.

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      Geoffrey Williams

      Definitely not a fan of Greta Dumberg, but honestly you’d have to say there’s a lot of mud in the UK right now. Should green up in the next few months with the Spring weather.
      GeoffW

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    Lank is sickened

    It has started… blame climate change!
    “The increase in the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the first 20 years of the century we live in has shown that the world will face an average temperature increase of 3ºC to 4ºC until 2100. This increase has never been experienced in the past 20 million years the world has existed. And it’s at least 20 times higher than the rising values of the temperatures seen about 18 thousand years ago when the last glacial period had reached its peak. In other words, the average temperature increase that the world will experience in the next 80 years is abnormally above the increase in the last 18 thousand years. Likely, a change of this speed will come with the cost of combating several serious problems such as infectious diseases, to preserve the world and human life. Could one of these problems be the coronavirus? Of course, it could be…”

    https://yetkinreport.com/en/2020/03/02/global-warming-could-be-a-cause-of-coronavirus/

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      sophocles

      ROTFL

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      Mike Jonas

      “an average temperature increase of 3ºC to 4ºC until 2100. This increase has never been experienced in the past 20 million years”. In a 20-million-year temperature graph, you would barely notice it. I think what they mean is that if you never look at history then everything is new.

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        David A

        Also that average T increase until 2100 is a horrible meaningless statement. ( Like a future maybe event is somehow a causeitive fact now.) Shameless drivel)

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      Graeme No.3

      Garbage or B.S. if your prefer.

      The change from the depths of the Ice Age to a relatively warm climate saw a change roughly from minus 7℃ to +1℃ world temperature (whatever that means). Later, after the Younger Dryas, Greenland showed a rise of 7℃ in less than 100 years (and the CO2 level dropped 40p.p.m. – easily understandable if there was a sudden influx of cold water from ice (with low CO2 levels) melting).

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    Bill In Oz

    The number of infected people in in Italy is still growing exponentially !
    The number of coronavirus cases in Italy has risen by 50 per cent in just 24 hours, local authorities have announced.

    1,577 people were now infected, a dramatic increase from just a day earlier.
    Five more people with the virus had died,
    bringing the number of deaths in Italy to 34,
    While 83 people had fully recovered.

    Maybe time for Brendan Murphy the Chief medical officer
    Advising the government to be flipped as incompetent ?
    The political cost of his advice to the government is getting bloody high!

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    David Maddison

    Any ideas for a prepper’s stockpile list plus for what period of time would you purchase supplies for?

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      Bill In Oz

      Back ups of any prescription meds.
      Major consumables like toilet paper, sanitisers, soap etc.
      Dried food that you use regularly
      Tinned foods that you use regularly ( for us an example is Tuna)

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      robert rosicka

      Because we do a lot of remote travel every year so we keep a stock pile of non perishable ( long life) food in the camper just in case we get flooded in etc .
      With what’s in the fridge and freezer if pushed we could ration for three to four weeks but when the grog runs out it’s time to move .
      There are some very good freeze dried meals etc out there and also tinned food etc , just depends on your taste buds .
      As for preppers it depends on what they’re prepping for but I’ve seen some with two years worth of food and others at three weeks .

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        Graeme No.3

        robert rosicka:

        As soon as I can complete certain purchases I will start a rumour that gin is the necessary item.
        Firstly, it makes a great disinfectant for hard surfaces and hand washing.
        Secondly, it has a well known effect of boosting well feeling.
        Thirdly, with enough dosage those affected won’t care (especially next morning) if they die.
        Fourthly, it is often drunk with tonic. Quinine works for malaria, so why not for Corona virus? There are sillier claims on FaceBook or other social media.
        All I have to do is isolate myself so I never get sick, then collect the loot.

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          robert rosicka

          Graeme we also have a still for making spirits but don’t use it much anymore and I’m not a fan of spirit drinks such as scotch etc .
          Oddly enough from 2008 till about 2016ish I was on varying types of pain medication including long stints on opioid based medication , never got a cold or flu in the years I was on opioids despite frequent trips to the docs and hospital .
          However when I took myself off the opioids I had flu like symptoms for six months but that was withdrawal symptoms.
          For the record I pity anyone who is on these meds and it was more like coincidence than actual effect .

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      Environment Skeptic

      Miso and other fermented foods tops the list.

      Fermented foods are absolutely vastly better nutritionally. Off the scale.

      Don’t know how preppers miss this on such a big scale.

      A fermented soy bean like miso is a super food. Soybeans on their own…pftt! Of course more than one grain can be fermented. Keeps super well without a fridge.

      Some sea salt and beans and voila!

      Honestly don’t know how this ultra super food is missed so often. A bag of beans and some salt. Takes one year to ferment and then improves with a little more aging.

      Also dried Natto is a super food and keeps incredibly well. Or it can be used to make fresh Natto since when dried, the fermentation is dormant. Its a good one because it only takes 24 hours to ferment a batch of Natto made from any of a variety of beans.

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    golfsailor

    In one of the links to CaiXin I found this :

    1. The fatality rate for patients with severe conditions amounted to 49%, the China CDC study found.

    2. Although the new virus is fatal less often than SARS at 9.6% and MERS at 34.4%, it has caused many more deaths because of the larger numbers of people infected.

    3. A recent study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) found that the overall mortality rate of Covid-19 is about 2.3%.

    4. The disease is also much more lethal among patients whose conditions turn critical, as it often triggers respiratory failure, multiple organ dysfunction or septic shock.

    5. no therapy has been confirmed as effective.

    6. The only effective cure is to use all medical resources to keep patients alive.

    7. A painful lesson in the early battle against the coronavirus at the epicenter Wuhan was the failure to detect early patients and place them under proper observation, partly because the city’s medical facilities were overwhelmed by an influx of patients, experts said.

    8. the main method to confirm the presence of the coronavirus in humans due to its low cost and quick results.

    9. there is growing concern that the tests are producing large numbers of false negatives.

    10. not all of those infected by it return positive

    11. some test kits available on the market could miss as many as 50% of cases.

    12. Gene sequencing is another major method for confirming coronavirus infections. But while gene sequencing is comparatively accurate, it is also expensive and time-consuming and requires special facilities that not all hospitals have.

    13. some novel testing methods based on antibody detection can diagnose an infection in 15 minutes. Hope !!!!!

    14. Japanese researchers found that 34.6% of patients quarantined on the luxury cruise ship Diamond Princess were asymptomatic. WOW, WOW, WOW, WOW

    15. evacuees from Wuhan also suggested that asymptomatic patients could account for nearly 40% of total infections. *(Spread by Government !! )*

    16. young women with an average age of 32.5 account for a major group of asymptomatic patients

    17. asymptomatic patients carry the same amount of virus as ordinary mild patients, suggesting similar contagious capacity ***** (Horrible news) *****

    18. More alarmingly, a number of Covid-19 patients who have recovered and been discharged by hospitals later tested positive again fueling fears that they were still infectious.

    19. There is only one drug right now that we think may have real efficacy, and that’s remdesivir,

    20. it may take a year or two to get a vaccine tried, tested and into use. (We knew that a long time ago).

    21. The epidemic has spread exponentially to 61 countries

    If you are not alarmed by now it’s certainly is time.

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      robert rosicka

      I see Australia has its first human to human infection case confirmed and they are saying it’s a
      ” health professional ” , plus there are two other cases they suspect of being human to human .

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    Rocket Rod

    A very interesting story has just popped up in case no-one has seen it yet.

    China orders destruction of coronavirus data.

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    robert rosicka

    OT , just listening to Greens radio (ABC) and Australia wide came on at six o’clock .
    One of the topics was a BOM employee talking about CAGW and OMG it was nothing but propaganda and many times I caught out the contradictions.
    Victoriastan has had worse fires than this year but still this year was ” unprecedented ” .
    She mentioned the horror of 400 people dying in the late 1890′s from the extreme heat but used it as a what will happen because of climate change .
    Best of the lot was the claim that since the 1950′s there is a human fingerprint on temperature’s, well der yes but the fingerprints belong to BOM employees .

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    Bill In Oz

    From South China Morning Post today :”
    “Britain has begun evacuating non-essential staff and families from the country ” Iran
    Because of the danger of infection by Corona Virus 19.

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    Bill In Oz

    Britain has begun evacuating ‘non-essential staff and families from the country’
    Which country ?
    Iran !
    SCMP.

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    Rolf

    Most astounding is the rate people holding office seem to understand the gravity of this pandemic. Next is the time frame it takes this people to understand the main priority has to be to save citizens. Saving the economy as seem to first priority so far will be abandoned when they understand there is no economy without citizens. Amazing how long time it appears to get this into their heads.

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    Tree

    I work at Brisbane international. The number of Chinese entering everyday has not lessened. Hundreds arrive everyday and every night. I am seeing them arrive ten fold off international flights that usually do not have many chinese. The travel ban means nothing. Chinese money means more than public health

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    Geoffrey Williams

    I’ve got a bit of a sore throat yesterday and today (Mon). Went to the Riverside theatre in Parramatta on Fri night and to a Thai resteraunt , lots of people about – wonder if . . .
    Don’t laugh this could be serious . . sarc.
    GeoffW

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      Geoffrey Williams

      ps . . and before anybody mentions it, no I didn’t have the bat soup . .
      GeoffW

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    Bill In Oz

    Jeff Bowles has been hammering away about Vitamin D3 for years.
    And he offers reason why countries which are warmer have been seeing less Corona virus infections :
    He says it’s not the warmth or humidity but the sunlight !
    More sunlight = more vitamin D3 in the body = boosted immune system = better able to fight the Corona 19 virus.
    It’s worth considering !

    https://jefftbowles.com/make-your-immune-system-kill-the-coronavirus-covid-19-before-it-makes-you-sick/

    Disclaimer : Jeff Bowles does not sell it. But he does recommend one supplier and may have an ‘agreement’ with that supplier.
    I prefer Iherb.com
    But there are lots of other sources of vitamin D3.

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    Roger Knights

    “Kirkland, Wash., becomes epicenter of coronavirus response as cases spread”

    WaPo, By Maria Sacchetti and Ashley Nguyen March 1, 2020 at 7:37 p.m. PST

    Officials in Seattle and King County confirmed four new cases of coronavirus-related illnesses on Sunday, bringing the state total to 13.

    City officials said that 25 firefighters and two police officers who were exposed to the virus at the LifeCare Center of Kirkland have shown no symptoms but are under close watch, while a county health department official said there were more than 50 residents and staff at the center who were reportedly ill with symptoms. Authorities also are worried that others — including 17 nursing students and four faculty and staff members from Lake Washington Institute of Technology — were exposed to the virus at the nursing home last week during a visit.

    The public college decided to close its 7,000-student campus in Kirkland through Tuesday to disinfect the school out of “an abundance of caution,” Shattuck said. The school also canceled a staff training session on diversity and an open house scheduled for this week.

    City Manager Kurt Triplett said come Monday, Kirkland residents will see some new signs encouraging elbow bumps or waves. “We all need to adjust to this as the new normal,” Triplett said. “We may be seeing the end of the handshake.”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/coronavirus-spread-kirkland-washington/2020/03/01/5e112fb8-5c10-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_first_reads&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_rainbow&wpmm=1

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    Roger Knights

    “Travel sector hammered on U.S. coronavirus anxiety”

    Mar. 2, 2020 10:33 AM ET|About: Eldorado Resorts, Inc. (ERI)|By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3547502-travel-sector-hammered-on-u-s-coronavirus-anxiety

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    It's the End of the World... Again

    “As a reader wrote to me yesterday: It’s not practical to close the borders. My reply: It’s not practical to kill 100,000 people either but one or the other may happen.”

    Sounds a lot like the climate change argument to me. We must do something because the cost of not doing anything will be much greater. I’m not sure Jo is thinking clearly about this virus issue.

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    Mark Smith

    I don’t think any country should close the schools. You are pretending to protect the children whereas when the schools are closed children going to into groups and exposed to adults otherwise the children drive their parents mad. Really the goal should be partition the country- keep people from moving around without control. Hence the big danger in schools is mostly teachers and staff since they are mosy likely to out of the area. Much better children (and adukts) be in a controlled environment. Close gatherings if they get people from outside the local area.

    00