JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

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Weekend Unthreaded, 9.3 out of 10 based on 19 ratings

224 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

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    dinn, rob

    the temperature at Stanford U.:
    11-20-2008 Usually only one kind of virus infects a cell at any one time. Sometimes, though, two different kinds of virus can infect the same cell. This can sometimes result in a new virus made up of parts of the other two. But this only happens in very special cases.
    One such example was the Spanish flu. This disease spread worldwide right after World War I and killed upwards of 25 million people.
    The virus that caused the Spanish flu didn’t exist before 1918. Experts think that it was a mix of human and bird flu viruses.
    Most likely someone was infected by both a bird and a human flu virus. The bird flu probably picked up some parts from the human virus that made it easier to spread and harder for the body to fight off. But this kind of thing can’t happen with the cold virus and Ebola. To be able to do this kind of mixing and matching, the viruses need to have very similar genetic material. And the cold virus and Ebola do not.
    Mixing and matching of genes is called recombination. It can only happen between two pieces of DNA or RNA that have sections that are very similar. This is so the two pieces of genetic material can line up with each other and swap at these points….
    The instructions for making new viruses are contained in a virus’ genes. Each kind of virus has a different set of genes arranged in a different way.
    What this means is that when two very different viruses recombine, the new virus will have a jumble of genes. Some genes needed to hijack a cell might go missing. Or those needed to make the outside of the virus might go missing.
    Or there might be duplicates of genes so that a mix of two shell proteins gets made. Or any number of other possibilities. The end result will almost certainly be something that can’t do much of anything. And certainly not be a killer cold/Ebola virus! While this is pretty much impossible in nature, it might be possible in a lab….
    In the past few years scientists have been able to create life (sort of). For example, at the beginning of 2008 scientists made a bacteria’s DNA from scratch. Then they stuck it into a bacterium. The bacterium now used this new DNA as its instruction manual. Voila, life.
    Scientists have also created viruses from scratch. Because they are so simple, this is even easier than making a bacterium.
    Scientists had to stitch together 580,000 DNA letters in the right order to make a bacteria. An Ebola virus only takes 19,000. And a cold virus 7,200!
    So scientists can pretty easily make an Ebola virus or a cold virus in the lab. But combining them into a supervirus is a whole different story.
    By Julia Oh, Stanford University https://genetics.thetech.org/ask/ask290

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Yeah and considering they exhumed victims of the 1918 virus to extract the virus in 2007, you wonder what has been going on since….

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      dinn, rob

      hmm, no high speed train travel in S. Korea–is that next? no air travel amongst Asian nations??

      ,

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      Roger

      Avian flu in ducks and other waterfowl can pass to pigs when both are kept in close proximity as mutations occur. Pigs anad waterfowl in very close proximity is commonplace across Asia and seemingly one key reason why new strains appear their first. From pigs it can pass to humans with or without further mutations.

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  • #
    RickWill

    Two key projects are under way that will enable South Australia to claim an ambient energy generation in excess of 80% of total.

    ElectraNet are aiming to have two synchronous condensers installed by mid 2020 and two more by end of 2020 at a cost of $180M:
    https://www.electranet.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/ElectraNet_Syn-Con-Fact-Sheet_WEB.pdf
    These will reduce the dependence on gas generators for system stability services.

    More recently, AER approved $1.53bn for an 800MW interconnected between SA and NSW:
    https://www.aer.gov.au/news-release/aer-approves-south-australia-–-nsw-interconnector-regulatory-investment-test
    That will enable SA to export its intermittency and push up electricity prices in NSW. It will hasten the demise of Liddell and that will cause an immediate increase in wholesale price in NSW.

    So SA now has access to two massive storage systems, both of infinite capacity. 650MW commonly known as Victoria and 800MW known as NSW. Combined, they easily exceed SA’s average demand so the state will no longer need to curtail intermittent production and, providing the links stay up, it will only be in times of peak demand that gas plant in SA needs to run.

    Once the NSW link is completed we should see claims that SA is 100% “renewable” generation on a regular basis; similar to ACTs claim.

    All this new capital expenditure is promoted on the basis that it will reduce electricity costs – ha, ha, ha, haa.

    By the way, Victoria has become impatient with AER and are now going to force the state poles and wires owners to extend the network in Victoria to hasten the addition of more grid scale intermittent generators in Victoria:
    https://www.aer.gov.au/news-release/aer-approves-south-australia-–-nsw-interconnector-regulatory-investment-test
    More capital expenditure to enable more subsidy farmers to make their fortune all at the expense of Victorian electricity consumers. Aint Labor governments great! Sader fact is that the other side of politics are too frightened of upsetting people to offer an alternative.

    Australia is on a one way street toward every increasing penetration of intermittent generation.

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      Hey Rick,

      Where do you get your Chinese electrical power data from? I noticed you mentioned something about it in the earlier Thread.

      I’m using the China Electricity Council data as shown at this link.

      They do their data with just a two Month lead time, so the next one to come out is for January 2020, and that’s around two weeks away.

      The U.S. has their data at the EIA shown at this link and they used to have a three Month lead time, but not long after the Chinese went to two Months, the EIA started to bring theirs out with the same two Month lead time. Still, that EIA site in the US has so much more information available, but the raw electrical statistics are always the ones I look to the most.

      I wish Australia could do something like this. We have to wait till the end of the financial year plus a few Months for them to bring our totals out, and then they are nowhere near as detailed.

      I chase all of our electrical data up from a couple of other sources. At one time, I was doing it all for Australia, on a daily basis, with ten hours lead time. I’m still doing that with wind generation now.

      I also notice that the OpenNEM site uses their own time frame as well. As good as the site might be at first glance, it’s inaccurate in a number of areas, and that time based thing is infuriating to say the least.

      Tony.

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      Kalm Keith

      Sick stuff.

      That’s it.

      World War III is over and the elites have assumed control.

      Voting is no longer relevant, but the Dutch victims believe that tractors in inconvenient places might help.
      Does Australia need to use boomerangs to restore democracy?

      KK

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      • #
        RickWill

        I may not have made the point clearly enough with regard to SA leaching off Victoria already and NSW to come. The 1450MW battery of infinite capacity is a once only for Australia. There is about another 4000MW of storage capacity with high energy capacity in current hydro. Beyond that, nothing that is in any way realistic.

        For Australia to get above 30% ambient generation it will need much more storage. Maybe if Australia could get a 25GW inteconnector to China it would be possible to push the whole country above 80% intermittents by leaching off China’s dispatchable generation.

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          yarpos

          Pretty much the Germany > France model. It only works with cover from dispatchable power and as long as that comes from over some boundary/border you can trumpet “success” ACT style (they are even worse as they havent built much and play their shell game shuffling paper; very Canberra)

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      Graeme#4

      Rick, how much power is required to keep the Synchronous “Condenser” running? Do you have any data? What always amuses me about synchronous condensers is that they are the same as the large rotating turbines in coal power stations. In the U.S., one state is running its old coal turbines now as Sychronous condensers.

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      yarpos

      I wonder what the complete cost of SAs renewable fantasy is going to end up being just to provide power to 1.5 million people? you wouldnt think this would be either complex or expensive.

      $3 billion plus for wind turbines (probably more , thats just the latest total I could find)
      $0.5 billion for the pre summer election panic package of generators and battery
      $1.5 billion interconnector to NSW
      $180 synch condensors for FCAS

      very conservatively at $5.18 billion and counting for a de industrialised market that mostly trickles along at less than 1GW and peaks at 2.5GW. Obscene really.

      didnt bother with domestic solar as thats going on everywhere, not just SA

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    Bulldust

    At the risk of seeming heartless, I am wondering why positively diagnosed Covid-19 patients are being flown around the place. Trump was reportedly furious at not being informed positive cases were being flown to the USA, when he’d been previously advised the sick would be treated in Japan.:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-news-trump-cruise-ship-diamond-princess-evacuation-a9352306.html

    As we know Australia repatriated many passengers from the Diamond Princess to a mining camp in Darwin to continue quarantine for 14 days, after the failed quarantine on the cruise ship. Next we heard one positive case from Darwin would be flown to Perth by the RFDS on a charter costing $50,000. I assume there would have been an ambulance at either end plus medical staff, all at risk of further infection.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-21/first-wa-coronavirus-case-to-be-flown-to-perth-for-treatment/11988920

    Was there no medical facility at the quarantine camp? If so, why use that location? Why take all the additional risks of having to transport positive patients around the place?

    As we know 3,000 to 3,500 Aussies die every year from the flu. I imagine some percentage of those people are not in their home state when they come down with the symptoms. How often do you hear of $50,000 RFDS charter flights moving flu patients around?

    There is a real danger here of politicians wanting to be seen to be doing something, because the virus is getting huge media coverage. This needs to stop. Now. Potentially they are exacerbating the outbreak risks for nothing other than a temporary media virtue signal blip.

    Don’t get me started on the Government now bending over backwards to bring in students from heavily infected regions because the Australian universities have become financially dependent on foreign students.

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      Annie

      I find it mystifying too Bulldust. I have been puzzling for days over why possibly/probably infected people should be moved between countries and states here when the virus seems to be so contagious. Kindness to the few at the expense of continuing health to the many? I hope that all the flight crews and medical crews are not being put at unnecessary risk just to save a few from a period of tedious boredom. If those on the ship were to be rescued, it should have been done at the outset before the virus had a chance to spread in such a closed-in situation. Well, that’s my opinion anyway, although others might well disagree.

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    • #
      RickWill

      The US air transporter was fitted with a quarantine module for the 14 infected passengers:
      https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32248/747s-carrying-americans-exposed-to-coronavirus-used-new-quarantine-box-for-infected-flyers
      There was news footage on this on Channel 7 when the passengers were being transported back to US.

      I know that Australians testing positive were held in Japan. Despite that, two of the evacuees tested positive in Australia.

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      Lewis Buckingham

      Bringing patients to Australia may be the smart thing to do.
      It means they can be both treated and,more importantly,studied.
      Caught early, Tamiflu slows viral replication allowing the immune system time to fight off the virus, or at least that’s the hope.
      Patients here means that the virus itself can be isolated and studied as it morphs into new strains.
      It also means that Australian citizens have a chance of good treatment, so do not face the same death and morbidity rates as in China.

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        Lewis, I agree. It’s not the patients we know about that worry me. We are one flight away from the Israel experience (if it hasn’t happened already).

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          clive hoskin

          Hi Jo.WE HAVE ALREADY HAD ONE CASE REPORTED ON THE Sunshine Coast.What the hell is going on?There seems more to this virus than meets the eye.

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    • #
      Greebo

      I can see potential for some entrepreneurial type tp produce HiVis face masks for the pollies.

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  • #
    Robber

    Net zero emissions – how? Albanese can’t say what it will cost, what industry will be affected, how many jobs will be lost.
    All we get is mumbo jumbo about Australia becoming a clean energy superpower with lower energy costs, somehow using hydrogen and intermittent solar and wind.
    If it is so economic, no government action is required – the market will transition.

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      Annie

      I foolishly turned on the rural ABC ‘news’ at lunchtime and promptly turned it off again when I heard Albo whining; what does he know about real science?

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      farmerbraun

      This will give you an idea. The OZ situation would be much worse , I think.

      “We just have to look to New Zealand, the only country to have
      actually made an estimate of the cost of achieving carbon neutrality.

      New Zealand’s prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, received plaudits this
      year for passing legislation designed to achieve carbon neutrality by
      2050. To her credit, her government asked a respected economics
      institute to estimate the cost. This revealed that getting to 50 percent
      below 1990-levels in 2050 would cost at least 5 percent of GDP annually
      by 2050.

      Why so expensive? For the same reason it is expensive anywhere:
      Weaning economies off fossil fuels and onto pricier, less efficient
      forms of energy reduces growth and prosperity. The impact quickly adds
      up.

      For New Zealand, the cost is similar to today’s entire expenditure on
      socialized education and health care. And getting all the way, rather
      than halfway, will likely cost 16 percent of GDP by 2050. That is more
      than New Zealand today spends on social security and welfare, health,
      education, police, courts, defense, environment, and every other part of
      government combined.

      Across the century, the cost for the small island nation of 5 million
      souls would add up to at least $5 trillion. And this assumes New
      Zealand implements climate policies efficiently, with a single carbon
      tax across all sectors of the economy over 80 years.”

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        Latus Dextro

        New Zealand is a doyen of UNEP neo-Marxist globalism. Successive central Left and Right globalist governments have Regressively shackled the country, pretending oh soooo Progressive and chic. Of course, the noe-Marxist globalists in New Zealand have jackbooted their way all over free speech and the right of free assembly. Hate speech is in, open borders are in, Judeo-Christianity is out, identity politics, political correctness and cultural Marxism reign supreme, youth suicide tops the OECD, 1:5 pregnancies are terminated and euthanasia is the in thing. Welcome to the New World.

        So in a country with as much geopolitical relevance as a pimple on a gnats backside, with a “carbon” footprint the size of a flea booty, and who generates 60% of its electricity from hydro, with a snippet of geo-thermal, and who has oil and natural gas reserves, why would the government condemn the populace to a fate of division, destitution, de-population, de-industrialisation and despair?

        No answers required.

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          sophocles

          13% from geothermal.

          The HMNZG has no choice — it’s not in charge.
          the World Bank runs the NZ Reserve Bank and NZ is
          their Economics Laboratory.

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            farmerbraun

            “their Economics Laboratory.”
            I think that may be the reason that wind power is unsubsidised (apart from the provision of a stable grid) in Godzone.
            Under some of the best wind conditions for generation in the world, the experiment has had the desired outcome – a steadily rising cost of electric power.
            The advantage of subsidies , of course , is that the wealthy are able to collect them , and then the energy generation can be
            mothballed when so desired.

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        And the interesting thing is that All of that money is going somewhere that can be traced.
        The manufacturers of Renewables, wind and solar, are primarily in China and Germany. There’s also significant “leakage” of funds through banking, after all moving such large amounts entitles them to a just return.

        Previously all of this was money that remained in country, but is now redirected to higher ground.

        World War III is over without a shot being fired.

        The Sun has finally set on that great experiment called Democracy. For further information please look at the U.S. Democrat Parti and its contorted machinations of the last couple of decades.

        KK

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    Bulldust

    In other news, I see the tolerant left/inclusive types (I assume, because the story is pay-walled) have bashed the WA head of the RSL, John McCourt:

    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/rslwa-chief-executive-john-mccourt-claims-he-was-punched-in-the-head-called-racist-as-anger-over-anzac-day-policy-boils-over-ng-b881470038z

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      Bulldust

      Oh, and allegedly called him racist while doing it, because he thought the Aboriginal flag and Welcome to Country shouldn’t be at ANZAC Day and Remembrance Day ceremonies.

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        Annie

        That ‘racist’ insult is always used to silence people who won’t do ‘woke’. It needs to be met head on. I’m utterly sick of it. I hope the RSL stands up to them. One Nation, one flag, one anthem, all Australians. Anything else is just divisive; the ‘woke’ are really just trying to stir up division and resentment.

        160

        • #
          Bulldust

          Here Annie, this video might give you some hope:

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0wC7c9Sywk

          The UK might be starting to turn the corner, and move away from the PC madness. Props to the based judge.

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            Annie

            Thanks for that Bulldust. Just listened to all of it.

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              Bulldust

              I’d love to buy Barry a pint or three – I bet he has some great tales. What a bloody legend as well, standing up for free speech in the face of systemic corruption within the HCOG (the Hate Crime section of the UK Police).

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          • #

            Need to spread this video around. link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0wC7c9Sywk A non-crime but it’s a hate crime. No evidence required, just a poison pen accusation… Modern version of yr witch mania, described by Charles Mackay’,1841, ‘#extraordinary delusions and the Madness of Crowds.’

            ‘An epidemic terror seized upon the nations; no man thought himself secure, either in his person or possessions, from the machinations of the devil and his agents. Every calamity that befell him, he attributed to a witch. If a storm arose and blew down his barn, it was witchcraft; if his cattle died of a murrain – if disease fastened upon his limbs, or death entered suddenly and snatched a beloved face from his hearth – they were not visitations of Providence, but the works of some neighbouring hag, whose wretchedness or insanity caused the ignorant to raise their finger, and point at her as a witch. The word was upon everybody’s tongue – France, Italy, Germany, England, Scotland, and the far North, successively ran mad upon this subject, and for a long series of years, furnished their tribunals with so many trials for witchcraft that other crimes were seldom or never spoken of. Thousands upon thousands of unhappy persons fell victims to this cruel and absurd delusion. In many cities of Germany, the average number of executions for this pretended crime, was six hundred annually, or two every day, if we leave out the Sundays, when, it is to be supposed, that even this madness refrained from its work.’

            Looks like those days of irrational folly are still with us. Douglas Murray has written a modern ‘Madness of Crowds, ‘ the present madness, Identity Group Politics and hate speech inquisition.

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          STJOHNOFGRAFTON

          Agreed. Australians are subject to apartheid agendas on a put up or shut up basis.

          20

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        Bulldust

        The WA RSL has withdrawn the new policies according to the ABC:

        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-23/wa-rsl-backs-down-on-aboriginal-flag-welcome-to-country-ban/11992416

        Strangely they never mention the bashing … I guess that doesn’t sit well with the narrative.

        30

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          yarpos

          Some of our indigenous brother and sister feel entitled to stick their bib in at every major event, so be it , we get what we put up with. I am sure there are also many indigenous people who would prefer for us to just get on with our business and they with theirs (sort of like most Muslims at Christmas).

          For me its just thumb twiddling time before things start or a reason to tune in late, but then I am not riddled with guilt about what someone else did hundreds of years ago or convinced the fate of indigenous people is any worse than what has happened to people everywhere in the world since the beginning of time. I am riddled with wonder though on where the billions that get spent every year on a few hundred thousand people actually goes and what we, or they, have to show for it.

          10

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        Brian

        Once again the left have responded with violence. He was right. After all a stage act invented by Ernie Dingo in the 1970′s is hardly part of indigenous culture. It should be confined to the entertainment industry and kept well away for formal ceremonies. But truth and logic have no place in whatever this modern Australian culture, diluted by massive immigration.

        20

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        Greebo

        Where’s Bruce Ruxton when we need him? He would hyave been on every news show giving them what for.

        10

  • #
    a happy little debunker

    You are advised to no longer pick up sticks in Tasmania.

    Parks and Wildlife are encouraging more intense firestorms!

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Is this the State where they want more wind turbines that would kill those eagles that they claim to be worried about?

      But I think they might be right: remember the story of the British bushwalker picking up what he thought was a stick to hit what he thought was a snake.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Link 1.

      The Earth’s atmosphere is not made of concrete Zoe, and the atmospheric mechanisms of transfer are different.

      KK

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      RickWill

      Your fundamental problem in the first link is the assumption that you will have heat transfer rate of 2W.

      You CANNOT choose the heat flow in isolation from the end conditions.

      You CAN set the temperature of the hot side at 75C and CAN assume only radiative heat loss from the cool side. You then have to adjust the heat input to the hot side to balance the power in and out. The cold side temperature will be that required to balance the heat flow.

      Under the conditions you prescribe for the concrete block, you will need to supply 16.4W to the hot side of the block and the cold side temperature will be -131C. The heat flux in and out is 20.5W/sq.m.

      33

      • #

        “balance the heat flow”

        Conservation of energy = real.

        Conservation of heat flow = junk science.

        In your world thermal equilbrium can’t exist.

        Show me your math.

        “You then have to adjust the heat input to the hot side to balance the power in and out”

        Why? Are you telling this is wrong:

        https://www.anglianhome.co.uk/goodtobehome/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Heat-Transfer-Animation.gif

        63

        • #
          RickWill

          At -131C on the cold side the conductive heat flow is:
          q=(75+131)*0.8*0.8/8
          q=16.48W

          Radiative power out:
          q=0.9*5.67E-8*(273-131)^4*0.8
          q= 16.59W

          The -131C is to the nearest whole degree.

          Your concrete block needs to be insulated and radiatively isolated on the 4 long sides. The cold end needs to be in a vacuum open to space. You could only conduct this experiment in space or a black enclosure held close to 0K.

          Your concrete block cannot create or destroy energy. The energy is conserved; meaning energy out has to go in once steady state is reached. During start up, the block would store energy until the steady state condition is reached.

          You could conduct the experiment at room temperature but you would need to adjust the radiation equation to cater for the room temperature rather than assuming it zero.

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            RickWill

            The actual cold side temperature under the prescribed conditions is -130.623C. The heat flow is 16.45W.

            You CANNOT just wave your wand and choose the conductive heat flow to be 2W.

            44

          • #

            Rick,
            75C => 833W/m^2 => 833/0.8 => 1041.25W

            What happened to 1041.25 – 16.45 = 1204.8 Watts?

            Let me guess, it went back to the source and heated it up some more. LOL

            53

          • #

            Is your argument that

            Hot Side Radiation = Conductive Heat Flux = Cold Side Radiation

            HSR = CHF = CSR ?

            Is that a correct interpretation of your claim?

            53

            • #
              RickWill

              It is not my argument, it is basic physics.

              The problem as you frame it is that the 75C side is a heat source that is radiatively and conductively isolated from the environment. So the power source would be say a heating element on holding the surface at 75C.

              All four long sides of the block are also radiatively and conductively isolated. The cold face is exposed to a vacuum in space near 0K.

              The hot side will require 16.45W from the heating source to maintain a temperature of 75C. There is no radiation from the face and conduction only into the block. Under steady state, the cold surface will rise from -273C to -131C. At that temperature the radiation to space will be 16.45W. The temperature difference across the block will be 206 degrees C. The power through the block will be 1645W.

              This is what is termed “steady state” condition. It is NOT thermal equilibrium.

              You could pose the same problem for a block in a room. That would be an easier experiment. Short of you actually conducting an experiment, I cannot help you with any better understanding of the physics.

              One other aspect that you seem to not grasp is that power is simply energy flow per unit time. So conservation of energy requires power out to equal power in under steady state conditions.

              44

              • #
                RickWill

                Correction – the 1645W should read 16.45W.

                30

              • #

                “So the power source would be say a heating element on holding the surface at 75C.”

                OK, so you provided 1041.25W

                “The hot side will require 16.45W from the heating source to maintain a temperature of 75C”

                So the block is now getting 16.45W?

                But what happened to 1204.8W?

                “The power through the block will be 1645W.”

                Power through the block?
                Where did you pull this number out of?
                And why is it not heating anything?

                I asked you a question:

                HSR = CHF = CSR ? Is that a correct interpretation of your claim?

                ‘This is what is termed “steady state” condition. It is NOT thermal equilibrium.’

                Yes, I’m aware that thermal equilibrium is not possible in your world.

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              RickWill

              Where did the 1041.2W come from?

              The 1645W was clearly typing error which I quickly corrected.

              You insist that it is “my” world. It is physical reality. You need to set up an experiment and prove the physics for yourself.

              I can help you set up a simple experiment that does not require vacuum and space. I can give the result before you conduct the experiment. Short of that, I suggest you seek reparations from your school; they have failed you badly.

              33

              • #

                I told you where it came from:

                75C => 833W/m^2 => 833/0.8 => 1041.25W

                16.45W can’t create 75C.

                To get to 75C you need to take 1041.25W.

                You will ignore the 1041.25W you have in the system and concentrate on the 16.45W to “maintain” it.

                Most sane people would think that 1041.25W is doing something there … namely heating the block beyond your claims.

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              • #

                I won’t be seeking reperations from my school. I went on to have a successful wall street career, earning 12x for my clients in 10 years. Even though they taught me junk in my field, it turned out to be very useful. I learned how to separate money from fools who thought they learned real economics at university (for my clients). Get it?

                Market speculation is more argumentative than the climatw debate.

                53

              • #
                RickWill

                I went on to have a successful wall street career, earning 12x for my clients in 10 years.

                That explains a lot. You have never had the opportunity to apply your understanding of pyhsics to the real world. If you ever make the effort to conduct some simple experiments in heat flow you will come to realise your present understanding is incredibly limited.

                One of Einstein’s many quotes on knowledge and learning.

                Learning by experience is the only way to gain knowledge

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              RickWill

              Yes, I’m aware that thermal equilibrium is not possible in your world.

              Thermal equilibrium is possible in the real world. By definition, thermal equilibrium means there is no energy flow:
              https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Thermal_equilibrium

              Thermal equilibrium
              Heat is the flow of energy from a high temperature to a low temperature. When these temperatures balance out, heat stops flowing, then the system (or set of systems) is said to be in thermal equilibrium.

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                Yes, in the real world, but not in your world, because you insist on conserving heat flow, i.e. not letting it go to zero as a rule of thumb.

                For the 3rd time:
                Please answer YES or No!

                Is your argument that

                Hot Side Radiation = Conductive Heat Flux = Cold Side Radiation

                HSR = CHF = CSR ?

                Is that a correct interpretation of your claim?

                YES or NO,
                Thank you

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              • #
                toorightmate

                Isn’t it amazing that we have lasted so long without Zoe’s horsesh*t saying we do not have equilibrium?

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            • #
              RickWill

              You will ignore the 1041.25W you have in the system and concentrate on the 16.45W to “maintain” it.

              The framing of your experiment did not provide an emissivity for that surface so I took it as radiatively and convectively insulated from its environment. You should have provided an emissivity for that surface and the conditions for its environment if it is not radiatively isolated. Also you should have energy flow arrow in either direction from that surface – one for conduction and and the other for outward for the radiation.

              Your calculations did not consider the radiative heat flux from this surface.

              It appears you have reframed the experiment.

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              • #

                “The framing of your experiment did not provide an emissivity for that surface”

                You assumed it was 1, and that’s OK. We will keep it at that.

                “Also you should have energy flow arrow in either direction from that surface – one for conduction and and the other for outward for the radiation.”

                Why? You want the HOT side to reject 1024.8W so you could send it back to the source and make that hotter?

                Why you rejecting energy?

                And if you rejecting this energy then you are not getting to 75C. You’re creating a 0.984 albedo, and a 0.016 absorptivity, and not getting 75C.

                “It appears you have reframed the experiment.”

                No no, it appears you’re coming to realize your mistake.

                For the 4th time:

                Is your argument that

                Hot Side Radiation = Conductive Heat Flux = Cold Side Radiation

                HSR = CHF = CSR ?

                Is that a correct interpretation of your claim?

                YES or NO,
                Thank you

                62

              • #

                “so I took it as radiatively and convectively insulated from its environment”

                So how was it being heated to 75C?

                All normal high school / college versions of the basic conduction problem assume a constant heat source.

                If not, then the whole problem just cools to the environment. Then what was the point?

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              • #
                RickWill

                So how was it being heated to 75C?

                As I stated, the experiment would need a heating element on that face to provide 16.45W at steady state. The element would be thermostatically controlled to hold it 75C.

                You can reframe the experiment how you like with complete detail so no assumptions are required and I can calculate the temperatures and power flows at steady state.

                What you cannot do is pull 2W as the power transfer given end conditions on the block of concrete.

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              • #

                Rick,

                For the 5th time:

                Is your argument that

                Hot Side Radiation = Conductive Heat Flux = Cold Side Radiation

                HSR = CHF = CSR ?

                Is that a correct interpretation of your claim?

                YES or NO,
                Thank you

                51

              • #

                You never have 75C.
                Your hole block is at -206C, except a small theoretical sliver of molecules at the far left that you imagine as 75C.

                Real 75C can conduct to next sliver of molecules, and so on …

                You claim I was miseducated, but you appear to be a crank engaging in ideological mathematics.

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      • #

        You seem to be telling me that my high school textbook, and college textbooks, and all online physics resources (for example: https://www.nuclear-power.net/nuclear-engineering/heat-transfer/thermal-conduction/)

        are wrong.

        They should have adjusted everything to match your ideological mathematics!!!

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        • #
          RickWill

          I am not saying your texts are wrong. I am suggesting your teachers failed you in giving you the correct understanding of the physics involved. There have been successful cases where students have sued their school for lack of proper education. You have a reasonable claim for compensation as your teachers have failed you.

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        • #
          Fred Streeter

          Hi, Zoe

          No Physics from me, just a thank you for an interesting post.

          I have had a great time reading your blog posts and trying to get my “brain” around the various discussions.

          Most refreshing!

          Thanks again.

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          • #

            Thank you, Fred.
            For the nice comment you will get the final view of how silly this is.

            If you’ve noticed I asked Rick the same question 5 times and he’s ignored it. He can’t commit to

            HSR = CHF = CSR

            If he really believed in his “conservation of heat flow” (not energy) idea he would just reaffirm.

            I’ve simplified what such a silly idea leads to:

            HSR => [ CHF ] => CSR

            Conduction Formula: q = KA(Th-Tc)/L
            Radiation Formula q = ɛσT⁴

            Simplify:

            Set Absorptivity = Emissivity = 1
            Set K = L = A = 1

            HSR = σ(Th)⁴
            CSR = σ(Tc)⁴
            CHF = Th-Tc

            Assuming HSR = CHF = CSR:

            σ(Th)⁴ = Th-Tc = σ(Tc)⁴

            There is only one solution!

            Th = Tc = 0
            HSR = CHF = CSR = 0

            !!!

            So in order to avoid the obvious, he concentrates on the cold end, uses the given Th (Th) in order to obtain Tc, but then he has a dilemma on the hot end:

            He needs 1041W for 75C.

            In reality conduction and radiation are both subtypes of total energy, and they don’t need to equate.

            The W/m^2 are not even for the same m^2:

            If Area (A) is in dimension (x,y), then
            L and K are in the z-dimension. You see it?

            All Rick saw was two things using W/m^2 and thaught they must be equal because two subtypes of energies must have their heat flows conserved, for some reason.

            Thanks again

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    • #
      RickWill

      Your second link demonstrates you have little idea of the operation of a radiation cavity. This link will provide you some insight:
      https://quantummechanics.ucsd.edu/ph130a/130_notes/node48.html

      A good example of a black body is a cavity with a small hole in it. Any light incident upon the hole goes into the cavity and is essentially never reflected out since it would have to undergo a very large number of reflections off walls of the cavity. If we make the walls absorptive (perhaps by painting them black), the cavity makes a perfect black body.

      The cavity will only reemit the energy incident on the hole. The temperature it arrives at internally will be determined by the incident energy as the outflow must match the inflow.

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      • #

        Your argument appears to be that conductively heated surfaces can’t emit EM radiation because they’re not boxes with holes that absorb radiation.

        Anything silly to attack me will do, I guess.

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        • #
          RickWill

          You introduced the radiation cavity. From your text:

          And what did Ludwig Boltzmann and Max Planck discover emitted from their radiation cavities which had a CHF of zero?

          You clearly have a poor understanding of what a radiation cavity is intended to achieve. The link I offered was to give you some much needed insight. Radiation cavities cannot create energy either. Power out equals power in.

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          • #

            And what radiation went in to Boltzmann’s hole? Where did it come from? And how did he measure it?

            LOL

            43

          • #

            You do understand that the origin of the term “blackbody radiation” came from placing carbon or lamp soot inside a cavity and then seeing what emerged from the hole after external heat was applied? I guess not.

            Hoe could you measure anything knowing Ein = Eout?

            Only differentials can be measured.

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            • #

              “How could you measure anything knowing Ein = Eout?”

              I meant that as a response to:

              “The cavity will only reemit the energy incident on the hole.”

              OK you will get back the radiation you put in.

              That tells you nothing about the radiation.

              The only way get useful information is to understand what kinetic energy (temperature) created the radiation. And the only way scientists could do that at the time was to relate it to conduction. Am I wrong?

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      Peter C

      Thanks Zoe for posting your thread in the right place ‘ ie an Unthreaded Post!

      It looks to me that you are getting plenty of negative advice! Now I have to read your original post and then all the comments before I can respond. Might take a while.

      In the mean time; I like it that you stick up for your self (right or wrong).

      My Physics Teacher’s best advice at school was” Drawn a big diagram first, before you try to solve the problem mathematically”.

      All the best.

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    • #

      Be good if you could address the moon question raised by an obviously intelligent person on your blog

      What is creation energy even?

      Do you have a 30 page manifesto, perhaps?

      “the history of it interacting with other objects and their distances”
      How does history matter? Nights are damn cold, days are damn hot. History is stuff that happened decades or billions of years ago, isn’t it? Not a “moon day”.

      Which objects could those be? Please do speculate.

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    TdeF

    Somewhere I wanted to say what is happening with CO2.

    Obviously air passes rapidly between the water and the atmosphere or fish would drown. CO2 is much more soluble and compressible than oxygen. And everyone agrees there is 50x as much CO2 is dissolved in the water than exists in the entire atmosphere. In fact all the CO2 from 1965 has gone into the ocean where it represents 1% of what is already there.

    So all the fossil fuel CO2 vanishes quickly. CO2 levels are by Henry’s Law of Physical Chemistry set by ocean surface temperature. We could not increase CO2 levels if we tried. So what is the problem?

    Yes CO2 has gone up in the air because the ocean surface is slightly warmer after the Little Ice Age and this means more CO2.

    All this is absolutely provable science. But to read the front page of any newspaper is to despair. All the zero emissions logic will not change CO2 levels and they are not a problem anyway. That should be very obvious by now.

    Man made Global Warming is busted, a hundred times over. Not a single prediction has proven correct. The computer models are all wrong and even if CO2 warmed the planet, we do not control CO2 levels. Windmills make no difference at all, not even 350,000 of them.

    So why is Australia being crippled by the extreme left of politics and the media? For what reason? It’s not about CO2, is it?

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    • #
      Dennis

      06:43 PM ET 02/10/2015
      Economic Systems: The alarmists keep telling us their concern about global warming is all about man’s stewardship of the environment. But we know that’s not true. A United Nations official has now confirmed this.

      At a news conference last week in Brussels, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism.

      “This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution,” she said.

      Referring to a new international treaty environmentalists hope will be adopted at the Paris climate change conference later this year, she added: “This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model for the first time in human history.”

      The only economic model in the last 150 years that has ever worked at all is capitalism. The evidence is prima facie: From a feudal order that lasted a thousand years, produced zero growth and kept workdays long and lifespans short, the countries that have embraced free-market capitalism have enjoyed a system in which output has increased 70-fold, work days have been halved and lifespans doubled.

      Figueres is perhaps the perfect person for the job of transforming “the economic development model” because she’s really never seen it work. “If you look at Ms. Figueres’ Wikipedia page,” notes Cato economist Dan Mitchell: Making the world look at their right hand while they choke developed economies with their left.

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      • #
        TdeF

        Yes, and she has supporters in every corner. Politicians of the left because it is anti establishment, like a vote for Bernie Sanders. Enemies of the Western Democracies and there are many who would subvert democracy. Companies who want to sell windmills, desalination plants, solar panels. Merchant Banks who want to sell carbon indulgences, including especially Malcolm Turbull’s Goldmann Sachs who without any scr*ples at all created the fake subprime Mortgage Industry and created the devastating Global Financial Crisis.

        Add Faux scientists all over the world who advise governments, starting with the congressional testimony of James Hansen and Al Gore, a testimony which gave the both fame and fortune and for now billionaire Vice President Gore, a Nobel Prize. And hundreds upon hundreds of socialist public service departments ruled with an iron fist from the top, including James Cook University, the ABC/SBS, BOM and various divisions who see a river of funding in Climate Change/Global Warming.

        It’s not a conspiracy. Any more than male toxicity, anti explorer, anti white, white supremacy, anti Catholic, anti Semitic, anti Fascist, Gay rights, LGBTI rights movements are about reality. Even the achievements of feminists like Germaine Greer have been trampled underfoot to give supremacy to men pretending to be women over real women.

        It’s a huge opportunity for so many people. How many know it’s all f*ke? Most of them, but it gives them jobs, and meaning. And you get the simple followers, the Exctinction Rebellion, St. Greta, primary school children marching.

        My point is that there is no real science. The Science has not been proven but disproven. That does not make me a denier. To propose new science fact, you have to prove it. The lack of warming for twenty years while CO2 climbed steadily should have destroyed it, but that has been utterly ignored, erased.

        Now we face the Climate Change assault on our government, without a voice, except perhaps for Matt Canavan in Australia. And they have given up on science, appealing now only to economics.

        After the takeover of the institutions, the public service, the companies, as is being written today, the only voice left is at the ballot box. We can only hope Trump is reelected and so many Americans see he is telling the truth.

        But it is harder and harder as every day we read front page that we have failed and need to move to electric cars, hydrogen, windmills, solar panels and then electricity will be so cheap we will make aluminum again. What utter rubbish! If windmill electricity was so cheap, why is our power so expensive? And why do windmills need so much cash, hidden in our electricity bills? It is the biggest rort in history.

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        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Two superb overviews.

          And to think that All of it is driven and Authorised by the concept that Human Origin CO2 can function outside of the scientifically proven Gas Laws that are operant in the Global Atmosphere.

          There is no operant mechanism by which any CO2 component of the atmosphere can cause or add to or extend Global Warming.

          What is most alarming is to find that censorship is active in the most unexpected places to keep this knowledge from public view and so allow what’s happening to continue.

          The Truth is there. Why is it suppressed?

          As a world, as a Nation, people deserve the Truth and freedom from the inherent abuse that this falsehood enables.

          KK

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    • #
      sophocles

      it is/was part of the `West’

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    • #
      Peter C

      So here is my question TdeF?

      Yes CO2 has gone up in the air because the ocean surface is slightly warmer after the Little Ice Age and this means more CO2.

      How can we tell?

      The Ocean surface temperature increase since 1780 (little Ice Age) is undetermined. Henry’s Law can not be applied because we do not have reliable measurements.

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      • #
        TdeF

        Yes, a lot of people see the Little Ice Age as being long ago (1780) but in fact it is quite recent (1870). Wikipedia even puts the end of the Little Ice age in the early 20th century.

        And ocean temperatures were among the first to be measured as the first thermometers were carried by ship’s captains, so it is a recent observation measured directly, not inferred by proxies like tree rings.

        My point though is fundamentally that warming of the ocean surface is coincident with Global Warming as much as Global Warming is coincident with CO2 and CO2 is coincident with industrialization.

        That rough correlation has been the entire evidence for a pseudo scientific community to claim that mankind has produced the heat via increased CO2. Thus the theory of captured infrared. In fact most recent is the claim that this heating includes heating of the ocean surface, without any explanation at all. Thus the blaming of the bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef on Global Warming.

        How much simpler is it that heating directly increases CO2? Henry’s Law does not have to be exactly applied, and surface temperatures vary from the arctic to the equator to the Caribbean, but it is agreed that they have increased. That is enough to expect a rise in CO2 plus the fact that the amount of CO2 in the air is 1/50th of that in the water, so the tiniest amount of heating would change that balance dramatically, say 50%.

        So without any speculation that increased CO2 captures more infrared which heats the air which heats the ocean surface, why not the simplest conclusion that CO2 increases directly? I have read that Henry’s Law cannot be directly used, that it does not even apply. My view is that unlike a laboratory where it can be exactly applied, bidirectional gas transfer is far faster in a turbulent wind whipped surface.

        At higher temperatures, higher molecular kinetic energy, higher molecular speed, more gas leaves the surface than enters. This is the basic principle behind Henry’s Law. There is no reason to think it no longer applies.

        By the principle of Occam’s razor, it is likely. Plus the proponents of infra red driven warming cannot explain ocean warming but ocean warming correlates directly with increased insolation. All heating comes from the sun and 3/4 hits water directly, reflecting no infrared. And the two cycles the 260 year De Vries solar cycle and the 64 year PDO were both at maximum at 2000.

        It will be a quick ride down now, rapid cooling. And the proponents of Carbon Dioxide causing warming will be increasingly desperate to explain the cooling.

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        • #
          TdeF

          Also the heating of the ocean, at least the ocean surface by CO2 is not possible as the heat capacity of the entire ocean vastly exceeds the heat capacity of the air, by 1400:1. It is ocean temperature which determines air temperature, not the other way around. So the gulf stream means milder winters for Ireland, England and France than those in Moscow at the same latitude as Glasgow. That is what caught Napoleon and Hitler. -50C is not survivable without the learned skills of the Russians.

          On the West coast of the Americas it is the Humboldt current which dominates climates. As with the potboiler of the Indian ocean where trapped heat causes the monsoons essential for life on the baking Indian subcontinent.

          Or the Southern ocean where adiabatic winds falling of the gigantic and 9,000foot Antarctic ice mountain cool everyone and kept Captain Cook from even sighting Antarctica in his three voyages.

          Oceans dominate air temperatures. Upper Atmosphere scientists like James Hanson would have us believe that the atmosphere, specifically the upper atmosphere was the source of all weather when it is an effect, not a cause. Again, this is very basic stuff. Heat capacity, thermodynamics and the behaviour of molecules at a gas/liquid barrier as summarized in Henry’s Law. It does not have to be exactly applied across a planet to be true everywhere.

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        TdeF

        The short answer. Henry’s Law applies in laboratory conditions exactly. In the wild world it is a guiding principle that a warmer surface releases more dissolved gas. How quickly would vary enormously but the principle is proven, documented, verifiable and precise science.

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        • #
          TdeF

          And anaethema to the idea of unilateral accumulation of man made CO2 locked in the atmosphere for thousands of years, as proposed by promoters of man made Global Warming.

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    • #
      WXcycles

      I don’t disagree with your logic TdeF, I just wanted to ask you what you make of CO2 palaeo-data from ice cores suggesting CO2 was not higher or equivalent in level during the MWP, when ocean was (presumably) of a similar T range (if not warmer, given sea level has fallen several meters since 4k yr ago).

      Where is the CO2 go from out of the cores, or did it never exist?

      If it did not exist, what makes this time different if the ocean is exhaling CO2 this time, but not last time?

      Or is CO2 concentration from ice core inclusions rendered hopelessly unreliable due to deformation and endless recrystallization processes in all mobile or even compacting ice?

      Your thoughts?

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    soldier

    Do all these “experts” that try to scare us about the Antarctic ice melting actually realise how much energy it would take to melt the icecap?
    The total energy in ALL the known reserves of oil, gas and coal combined is 2.87E+16 MJ (that is 28,700,000,000,000,000 MJ).
    If we were foolish enough to burn it all and focus the heat energy on the Antarctic icecap it would melt only 1/300th if the total ice.
    Check the actual science and do the maths – it’s true!
    And some of these foolish “experts” call themselves scientists.

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  • #
    dinn, rob

    a speed up in infections?
    February 21, 2020
    Singapore now has at least 86 cases of confirmed coronavirus
    , February 21, 2020
    Iran says coronavirus has spread to several cities https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-21-20-intl-hnk/index.html
    ………………………
    1-20-20 Woman from Wuhan, China, where virus originated, tests positive after checks at Incheon airport https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3046815/china-coronavirus-outbreak-south-korea-reports-first-case
    ………………………
    2-21-20 new cases in South Korea and Iran — where there have been four deaths — don’t show a clear connection to travel there. In an emerging cluster of illnesses in northern Italy, the first to fall ill met with someone who had returned from China on Jan. 21 without experiencing any symptoms of the new virus, health authorities said.

    The World Health Organization warned that clusters not directly linked to travel, such as the ones in South Korea and Iran, suggest that time may be running out to contain the outbreak. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/virus-cases-balloon-korea-outbreak-shifts-spreads-69120906
    …………….
    Osong Station is a train station on the Honam and Gyeongbu high-speed railways in Cheongju City, North Chungcheong Province, South Korea. This is 81.4 miles (131 km) northwest of Daegu.
    …………………..
    3-20-17 (BL-4) lab in Osong, a biotech complex in North Chungcheong Province. With this, South Korea is close to opening its first laboratory fully equipped for experiments with the deadliest of human viruses, such as Ebola. https://www.biospectrumasia.com/news/51/8772/korea-to-inaugurate-countrys-first-biosafety-level-4-lab.html
    …………………………..……

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  • #
    Aussie Pete

    Whether you believe that human intelligence is the result of a random gene mutation during our evolution or it’s a gift from God, is irrelevant to this discussion. In either event, the fact that present day humans are boasting about developing artificial intelligence is, to my mind, an absurdity.
    At time of writing, I cannot even find an agreed definition for intelligence. Psychologists over the last 100 years or so have made any number of attempts at defining it. Some have 6 elements, others have 7 or maybe 10 and one version has 150.
    Because of the complexities involved there is a temptation to try and simplify the subject, sometimes resulting in definitions that more accurately describe an earthworm rather than a human.
    It appears that only in relatively recent times, consideration has been given to the role of emotions when discussing intelligence but this doesn’t seem to have gained much traction in the world’s technology laboratories.
    Perhaps blinded by their own publicity, how smart are the technology geniuses, when they claim to have developed an artificial version of something that cannot be defined, took millions of years to evolve and/or is God given?
    For me, brilliant and all that it is, they have simply come up with a way of processing massive amounts of information very quickly (perhaps an oversimplification). Neither the tools that they use, nor the information itself, possess emotions, ethics, or any notion of altruism except that which has been programmed into them, according to the human interpretations of how these things should be mimicked. Artificial, certainly but Intelligent? I say not.
    The fantastic notion that one day we will all be getting around in driverless cars has long been nothing more than a pipedream as far I am concerned. Nonetheless, all of the major vehicle manufacturers plus a couple of others, like Google and Uber are pouring untold billions of dollars into the idea, and why? At least Uber have the financial incentive to put their drivers on unemployment benefits but as for the rest, it would seem that they just don’t want to be left behind. This has become a classic case of “technology because we can”. The problem is, it is quickly becoming a case of “because we can’t”.
    As recently as 2017, industry boffins were predicting completely driverless cars would be commonplace by 2020.
    In the intervening 3 years the nitty gritty of added vehicle costs, consumer resistance and regulatory issues have hit home in a big way.
    Perhaps the biggest handbrake on the arrival of completely autonomous “intelligent” vehicles is that the artificial version is not compatible with the human version, partly for the reasons discussed earlier. This has the potential to be downright dangerous and the realisation that, to be fully effective, it will be necessary that every vehicle is a computer. That is years away, so the massive financial investments being made now would likely not pay off in the lifetime of any currently living human.
    The “pipedream” is becoming a “nightmare” as reality sets in and the language is beginning to change. For example “driver assisted” is replacing “fully autonomous”.
    Recently the Bentley Motors CEO, Adrian Hallmark illustrated the confusing conversations about all this when, presumably, because of what he sees as an extremely high safety level associated with artificial intelligence, he posed the thought of travelling around Europe at 320 kilometres per hour. So blinded are these people that the appalling traffic flow on say, Britain’s M25 orbital on a bank holiday weekend, just doesn’t get consideration. The thought of thousands of driverless cars hurtling up the M1 from Sydney to The Central Coast, many of them towing a 10 foot tinny at the speed of a Formula One racer, just does not compute. So I ask again, what’s the point?
    The massive investments in the search for Utopia on the roadways will become something of an embarrassment and are forcing CEO’s to think outside the square. For example, recently, one such CEO came up with the idea that maybe we could have dedicated lanes for autonomous vehicles. Not only did he appear oblivious to the irony but seems to have forgotten that we already have dedicated lanes, we call them bus lanes and railway tracks. Never mind the expense of building them all over the place.
    There are some great things happening in the field of computer assisted driving which will certainly lead to less accidents. However, I am suggesting that we are about to see a line drawn under further developments. It may be something of a dotted line and presented as just a slowing down which will become a permanent shelving of the idea. There may be commercial applications such as trucks on defined long haul routes, but for mine ‘going the whole hog’ just won’t be happening.
    I am predicting that the technology research funds and effort will be redirected into on the future of electric vehicles and their associated battery problems. It would appear that at least with EV’s and FCEV’s there are enough people of the spurious belief that they need to save the planet and are prepared to pay many thousands of dollars ‘over the odds’ to do so. A car salesman’s dream I would have thought.
    Impending Government bans is a further incentive for car makers to re-focus their efforts. For example, Britain will ban the sale of all petrol and diesel vehicles within 15 years and Paris will be banning all such vehicles within 5 years. Tesla’s EV’s will face enormous pressure from all over the world once the big boys get really serious.
    There are many reasons why the so called intelligent, ‘I’m in complete control’ car will not be happening but I’d like to end with the reason why it must never happen. It would be reasonable to assume that any such vehicle would be equipped with an overriding code where ‘proceed with caution’ would apply in all circumstances. Now, let us consider a circumstance where a young family is out for a Sunday drive in their autonomous vehicle when approaching a mountain pass, they come across a sign that reads FALLING ROCKS DO NOT STOP. The vehicle’s intelligence would interpret the sign to mean ‘proceed with caution’ so in effect it would ignore the sign and carry on. A responsible human driver would likely not wish to place the young family in danger for no good reason. It would be immoral to proceed, they would turn around and go home. It is my contention therefore, that it is not possible to build morality into a computer and a society that is relying on any kind of so called intelligence which is lacking in morality is surely a society on a very slippery slope.
    Posted at my blog

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    • #
      BK Tony

      Pete, I saw a ‘Falling Rocks Don’t Stop’ sign on the highway between Singleton and Muswellbrook I reckon.
      It occurred to me that if a falling rock did stop it ceases to be a falling rock, so they don’t.
      The sign impressed me as much as Douglas Adams’s favourite sign, ‘Wind gusts May Exist’ on a bridge in the US.

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      PeterW

      There is a saying that science can tell us how, sometimes why, but it cannot tell us what is important.

      It is conceivably possible that a hypothetical driverless car in your scenario, might adjust its course of action according to cargo on board. Maybe. But that adjustment would be due to decisions and input made by the programmers, not because the machine is truly equipped with human instincts and the ability to empathise. In that sense it is not truly intelligence – we might use the term “wisdom”, because the machine does not know what is important from first principles. Only what it has been “told” is important.

      In some ways it parallels the old debate over whether morality is exogenous or endogenous. To me, the argument that morality arises out of some perception of “benefit”, fails when you try to explain why it is “wrong” for a Viking to pillage, murder and rape (which benefit him and his community). Such arguments always come down to arguments over the definition of “benefit” and attempts to apply mathematical formulae to the subjective.

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        el gordo

        The benefit for Vikings was the slaves they could capture, before the industrial revolution slavery was the oil of its day. The brutal civil war in American was a clash between two forms of energy.

        20

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      WXcycles

      The massive investments in the search for Utopia on the roadways will become something of an embarrassment and are forcing CEO’s to think outside the square.

      Predictions verses fad tech-marketing tends to diverge early, Pete.

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    el gordo

    Note the low pressure trough from the equator to Antarctica.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf

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    Graeme No.3

    Elaine Morgan says we evolved from aquatic apes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwPoM7lGYHw

    Noteworthy for her comment** from Thomas S Kuhn about what scientists do when their paradigm is proved faulty; they carry on as if it still applies and anyone questioning this becomes very unpopular and gets abused.

    Should we repay the AGW believers for calling us ‘deniers’ by calling tham Kuhnites (or Kuhns for short)?

    **roughly 3:45 to 4:30.

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  • #
    PeterS

    It’s now a given there is a trend towards net 0% emissions by 2050 in the Western world apart from the US (although that could change eventually). Some can actually achieve it very easily, such as in the UK because they have a not so insignificant reliance on nuclear. The race to 0% emissions is also gaining some popularity albeit questionable by how much in the Australian community, at a business level, state level (ALP and LNP) and individual level. There is no need to pretend otherwise. Public perception of climate change is changing as well, and so more and more people are expecting governments to do more about it. All these factors are placing the LNP in a very precarious level at the next election if they are not careful.

    The climate change issue worked in their favour last time (together with the tax scares of ALP’s policies) but by the time we have the next federal election things will very likely be different and not in favour of the LNP. The obvious way to switch things around to LNP’s favour is to agree with the same dream for 0% renewables by 2050 (and that’s all it is, a dream since by 2050 who knows what the situation will be – we could be in the middle of WW3 for all we know). The approach to getting there has to at least have some realism compared to the ridiculous path the ALP+Greens would adopt.

    The only sensible alternative I can think of is to replace most of our coal fired power stations with predominantly nuclear power (UK went all the way some time ago) and vegetate vast barren areas to soak up much more CO2, which necessitates a grand plan for widespread water harvesting and delivery. These are practical solutions with many side benefits in terms of employment and new industries, unlike the nightmarish dream that renewables will provide similar benefits, which they can’t. I repeat, it won’t matter by 2050 since I can almost guarantee things will be vastly different by then and we will be focusing on completely different issues.

    The point I’m trying to get across is if the LNP (and in turn voters once properly informed) really want to prevent the ALP+Greens from implementing their disastrous plan towards 0% emissions by way of renewables then the LNP must come with such an alternative plan. Otherwise, they (and we) might as well stick their (our) heads in the sand and hope for the best but wait (not just expect) for the worst. Also, the debate of coal versus renewables is becoming boring. Fewer people are listening. We need to move on and try a different tact.

    My proposal appears to me at least to do the trick in terms of tackling the growing public perception that aiming for 0% emissions is becoming more acceptable by more and more state departments, businesses, etc.. What do others think? Do we continue pretending we can defeat the ALP+Greens by using the same old approach, or do we try something new and IMHO better? BTW, to fund it all we should simply scrap the stupid new submarine contract. Simples.

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    • #
      Chad

      It’s now a given there is a trend towards net 0% emissions by 2050 in the Western world apart from the US (although that could change eventually). Some can actually achieve it very easily, such as in the UK because they have a not so insignificant reliance on nuclear.

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        Chad

        Sorry,…intended to say that Nuclear wont do it for the UK, or even France , without a lot of “Manipulation of Reality” ..!
        UK has a lot of Gas ( and wood !) generators, and they will still have to solve the domestic heating, Transport, Agriculture, and Aviation, emissions.
        They are all hedging with the “NET” emissions terminology, expecting to twist the data to give a result that the world will accept.

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          PeterS

          I understand that but we in Australia have no nuclear at all so even attempting to reach 50% let alone 0% emissions is a pipe dream. People need to understand that or else ALP+Greens just might gain control.

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          • #
            yarpos

            I look forward with bated breath to future governments doing their annual “closing the energy gap” report. Another going no where waste of time activity that they all will pay lip service to.

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      Graeme No.3

      Peter,
      the problem is that people think that we could power the country with wind and sun, and when this is challenged immediately claim that batteries (or pumped storage) would be the solution without adding the cost thereof to the cost of renewables.

      Sorry, but we need blackouts to convince them.

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        PeterS

        Yes I have stated many times blackouts will be necessary to wake people up. I’m just offering an alternative to avoid ALP+Greens gaining power at the next election at all costs.

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      Bill Burrows

      PeterS – in any discussion of this nature the first requirement is for all the participants to agree on what they think they are talking about. So:
      (1) What do you mean by net-zero emissions (e.g. for Australia)?
      (2) What has to be measured (accurately and precisely) to achieve this goal?
      (3) Are these measurements being made to-day?
      (4) How will this be done in a practical sense and within acceptable uncertainty limits?
      (5) Who will be responsible for any inventory and will any independent body be charged with auditing the results?

      Frankly, from where I sit our politicians, bureaucrats, vested interest groups and the MSM (not you Peter) all bandy these questions about while not knowing what they are actually saying or proposing, and especially how they suggest Australia gets there. If they based their objectives on full and honest C accounting, it may not be as hard as it seems at first glance. But that assumes the advocates have an informed and honest agenda. Good luck with that!

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      • #
        PeterS

        Too much detail. I rather keep it simple and offer a suggestion for the LNP to take the initiative. Of course I won’t hold my breath. I do expect we will crash and burn. As usual we need to learn our lesson the hard way.

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      el gordo

      ‘The only sensible alternative I can think of is to replace most of our coal fired power stations with predominantly nuclear power …’

      No thanks, raising the white flag is not in my brief.

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      • #
        PeterS

        Our PM Morrison has already raised the white flag. I was suggesting he take it down.

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        • #
          el gordo

          Looks like I was wrong about Morrison, he does appear to be a first class idjit, which now leaves me with no alternative. I was also incorrect in thinking Ita and Speers would purge the ABC of Trots, it really is an unmitigated disaster.

          Now that Cory has cleared out, is there anybody with charisma and intelligence worth voting for?

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            PeterS

            We do not vote for a PM, we vote for a party. As I’ve said several times before the best short term way to kill off the rush to renewables and lowering our emissions dramatically is to vote for a minor party that will block such actions and force a minority government outcome whereby one of the two major parties will have to come to their senses and get back to supporting coal fired power plants. For that to happen we would have to have a lot of voters wake up and use their brains for the very first time at the ballot box. Not holding my breath on that one.

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            PeterS

            After watching the heated debate between Barnaby Joyce and Joe Fitzgibbon I would love to see Joyce be our next PM. Of course there’s little hope of that.

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      PeterW

      Extrapolating a trend is not always rational, particularly if that trend is based on a one-off transition between technologies such as the move from coal to gas (which appears to be driving most of the reductions in CO2 production in the US and Britain). Sure, you achieve A reduction, but as long as you burn gas, you continue to produce CO2.

      As has already been pointed out, there are no currently viable alternatives for many energy needs – particularly agriculture and mass transport.

      …. and would you mind telling us exactly where these vast “barren” areas are to be “revegetated”?

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        PeterS

        Are you kidding? We have lots of land that is barren due to lack of water. If Israel were in control we would be the food bowl of the world.

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        el gordo

        Australia is the smallest continent and by 2050 I expect to see the whole island covered in Chinese market gardens and mono cultures of one sort or another.

        PW they will need to develop soil and build dams, and also new coal fired power stations to value add .

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Pigeon-holing!

    “Study: A Quarter of Climate Denier Tweets are Bots”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/22/study-a-quarter-of-climate-denier-tweets-are-bots/

    The first comment says a lot IMO.

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  • #
    Chad

    ABC Rado news …
    Ausgrid have proposed “islsnding” from the grid, some of those areas of the S East Coast that were cut of during the bushfires… eg,..Malua Bay, Lake Conjola, Eden, etc.
    They are proposing local Solar/wind and Battery back up, instead of replacinng the poles and wires, sub stns etc, needed to reconnect the grid.,…as a more durable solution !
    They even suggested that diesel generators may be needed to ensure 100% supply !
    How does this even get considered whilst they are currently building more grid connectors to SA , to prevent “islanding” ?

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      Graeme No.3

      Aahh! But those people live in isolated communities and know what happens when electricity isn’t available, so there are no votes in them for renewables.
      So renewables have to be rammed down their necks to teach them how good renewables are. And if they complain who will hear them.

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      robert rosicka

      Cut a decent firebreak around the poles and wires we wouldn’t be having this conversation!

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      yarpos

      It gets suggested because infrastructure is expensive, particularly long haul to small populations. They would be giving up much in the way of profits.

      Much better to chuck some hardware at the punters , dust off your hands and say our work here is done. Follow the money.

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    TdeF

    And Bernie Sanders, the ‘socialist’ who says he is not a ‘communist’ (as do our Australian communists like Dr. Adam Bandt with a PhD in communism) is leading the pack.

    That is because the Universities are refusing to teach the real history of Communism and Socialism, even that Fascism was socialism. So communism posing as socialism in China, Eastern Europe, Cuba, Cambodia, Venezeula was simply not done right. American socialism will be so much better.

    And so the students vote to have their fees expunged, the illegal migrants for free medical and education services which are denied American citizens and for open borders to destroy American Imperialism and the American state.

    And they are winning, voting Democrat and Sanders.

    This is almost a copy of the British election where anti semitic radical communist Jeremy Corbyn is still leader of the British Labor Party, refusing to give up power.

    Consider leading Democrat Bernie Sanders honeymooned in Moscow. That’s a statement of his real affiliation, while the Democrats openly accuse Trump of working with Putin. In Australia, opportunist communist Bandt now leads a political party who want to destroy Australia, power station by power station.

    It’s not about science but real power. Starting with electrical power just as the NBN remains a Labor attempt to take over communications and the internet, like China.

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    Ian Hill

    While driving back from Brisbane Airport I saw a billboard advertisement for a hotel proudly stating it has Brisbane’s “worst vegetarian restaurant”!

    Loved it.

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    disorganise

    Simpleton maths (where I’m the simpleton of course).

    Ignoring every natural CO2 emission and absorption (see….simple :) ) I wanted to see what we are actually emitting. Something TdeF and some others said in one of the earlier threads this week.
    My logic is probably way off, but…

    I got the Earth’s atmosphere as 5.15 x 10^18 Kg from wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth Does the mass of the atmosphere actually change (much)?

    Then I took the CO2 ppm’s from 1958 to 2018 from https://www.co2.earth/monthly-co2. I used the August numbers for simplicity (they’re coloured blue so easy to grab)

    And then took the annual emissions from here https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT?cid=GPD_31

    Calculation;
    I converted the emissions to Kg (for each year) and then divided by the mass of the Atmosphere (in Kg) and multiplied by a million. This *should* give a ppm value for the emissions that year…..I hope.
    I then calculated the difference of the *actual* atmospheric ppm (from the co2.earth site) from year to year (i.e., take the value of year 1960 from the value of 1961, and so on.

    Surprisingly (for me anyway), the amount raw emissions was ~7ppm in 2014, whilst the measured increase was 1.9 the following August. Meantime, in 1960, emissions were ~1.8ppm and the measurement the following year 0.88ppm

    The plot of the graph is here https://imgur.com/C360scx

    Quite diverging paths. Not really sure what this shows, if anything, other than I think it shows that only a percentage of what we emit, actually stays in the atmosphere.

    In fact, if I calculate 35% and plot another line…
    https://imgur.com/4ILoSkW

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      TdeF

      My point is that there is absolutely no reason for CO2 to stay in the atmosphere. Consider

      Fish breathe
      They get their oxygen from the air. Quickly.
      They breathe out CO2 which also leaves.
      And if oxygen enters the water, much more soluble CO2 also enters the water.
      You cannot unilaterally put CO2 in the atmosphere and expect it to stay there.
      That is ridiculous.

      So what sets CO2 levels between water and the air? The temperature at the water surface. This is simple known science.

      And the world has warmed since the Little Ice Age which ended in 1870. So the temperature has gone up, the water temperature
      has gone up and the CO2 has gone up. So what?

      Our piffling yearly contribution is sucked straight into the oceans which cover the world. And new CO2 comes out from the huge reserve. Which is what happened to a doubling of C14 in 1965. It’s all gone. So we know for a fact that all the CO2 is gone from 1965. And nothing we can do can change CO2 levels.

      So the enemies of Democracy accuse us of increasing the world’s CO2 and James Cook University and all the other beneficiaries of billions in carbon money totally agree. It’s all about the money. Blow up those power stations.

      And in the US, the left wants to stop fracking, despite the fact that it dramatically lowers CO2 levels, but also makes the US independent of Iran, Russia, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. So it’s not about CO2. Its about the money.

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        disorganise

        Is the turnover of CO2 in doubt?

        So what sets CO2 levels between water and the air? The temperature at the water surface. This is simple known science.

        Seems logical and likely syncs with the ancient record (temp first, cO2 follows)

        Which is what happened to a doubling of C14 in 1965. It’s all gone. So we know for a fact that all the CO2 is gone from 1965. And nothing we can do can change CO2 levels.

        I’m not sure one follows the other. It feasible (at least mathematically) to have 90% turnover of the atmosphere each year, which would disappear the C14 quick smart, but that doesn’t necessarily mean our emissions aren’t creating (or rather, contributing to) the overall increase in CO2.

        If we say the Earth (oceans) are warming, and that sets the CO2 level in the atmosphere, isn’t the burden then to show what is causing the warming?

        The argument that man adds CO2 emissions (though seems like on 35% count to me) and that in turn raises temps, may well be a false argument, but there is a logic to it. We emit, concentrations rise, temps rise. The *cause* is us emitting – the crux of the Mann-made GW.

        Saying temps rise, concentrations rise, inevitably comes back to ‘why? why are temps rising?’. And here’s where we have a problem. We criticise the alarmists models for being inaccurate, but to my knowledge, have not countered with a more accurate model….and so the hysteria continues.

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      RickWill

      The actual atmospheric accumulation of CO2 is close to 50% of what is emitted from burning of fossil fuels. Roy Spencer has some detail calculations here:
      https://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/02/nature-has-been-removing-excess-co2-4x-faster-than-ipcc-models/

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        TdeF

        It frustrates me that people infer this stuff when it is directly measurable. Radioactive carbon, Carbon 14 was doubled in 1965. This radioactive tag cannot be destroyed with a half life of 5400 years. There has been a constant level for the last 50,000 years due to incident cosmic rays which convert nitrogen 14 into carbon 14. This is the basis of all radio carbon dating.

        Examining the graph of the collapse shows a decay rate of a single e-kt curve with a half life of 14 years. This medical tracer shows the CO2 with double C14 is nearly gone, vanished. It has been exchanged with older CO2 from the ocean.

        Still people perform this calculation instead of direct, obvious measurement. This Royal Society paper by Fergusson in 1958 explains it all. The new generation of scientists would do well to stick with old and proven science.

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    Another Ian

    “Spurgeon Monkfish III in response to the following proposition: “Therefore, it could surely be argued, a VFT service between Sydney and Melbourne would be financially viable.” ”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/02/23/spurgeon-monkfish-iii-in-response-to-the-following-proposition-therefore-it-could-surely-be-argued-a-vft-service-between-sydney-and-melbourne-would-be-financially-viable/

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      Graeme#4

      A very good study. But what was interesting was the Chinese use of high-speed rail, with one line that was equivalent to Perth to Adelaide, now 41 hours by train, being achieved in China in 9 hours. While I realise that high-speed rail is never profitable, when living in Europe, I often travelled by train, as I was able to get a lot of work done in about the same time as it would have taken me to fly, taking into account taxi trips, waits at airports, etc.

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    robert rosicka

    I’m hearing (no evidence yet) that Labor had a secret plan to place limits on coal exports if they won the last federal election.
    Has anyone seen the same claim or have a link ?

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    pat

    23 Feb: UK Express: UK snow forecast: Snow to blanket Britain for next TWO WEEKS in -8C freeze – latest maps
    SNOW and ice warnings are in place on Sunday and Monday, and forecast maps are showing a deluge of snow will hit the UK through next week. Here is the latest snow forecast.
    by Georgina Laud
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1245921/UK-snow-forecast-met-office-snow-map-charts-latest

    23 Feb: UK Express: BBC weather warning: ‘Significant snow storm’ to smash UK on Monday – travel chaos fears
    THE UK is set for Monday travel chaos for people driving to and from work, as the latest BBC weather forecast revealed that an approaching snow storm could unleash “widespread disruption”.
    By Oli Smith
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1245914/BBC-weather-warning-Storm-Ellen-snow-latest-Met-Office-blizzard-news

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    pat

    original is behind paywall, but enough here to get the picture. not sure this will get through, but I have often told Origin Energy I object to paying for anything related to CAGW policies (not that it got me anywhere):

    22 Feb:: RoseLawGroupReporter: Proposal would let power customers avoid paying for renewable energy
    By Ryan Randazzo, Arizona Republic
    An Arizona lawmaker is proposing to change the state Constitution so that electric companies are required to offer customers a way to opt out of funding solar and wind power plants.
    The measure is the latest in a long line of efforts to curb renewable energy in the state, and comes just a month after the state’s largest electric company pledged to get about half its energy from renewables by the end of the decade and go carbon free by 2050.
    The legislation, proposed by state Sen. Sine Kerr, R-Buckeye, would seek approval from voters to change the state Constitution.

    It would require that utilities offer rate plans that “do not include costs associated with any renewable energy standards, mandates, or voluntary goals set by the electricity supplier.” It proposes customers also be allowed to opt out of paying for electric-vehicle charging stations, which are a key element of many electric utilities’ business plans…LINK BEHIND PAYWALL
    https://roselawgroupreporter.com/2020/02/proposal-would-let-power-customers-avoid-paying-for-renewable-energy/

    same with Foxtel & all subscription TV which should be available on an a la carte basis, and matching price. that would soon sort out the rubbish channels, which get paid for simply existing on these platforms.

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    pat

    23 Feb: Albuquerque Journal: Guest columnist: Renewable energy is not powering replacement jobs
    Guest column by Jeff Peace, Kirtland Resident, Retired Environmental Engineer
    The (Jan. 24 Journal) article regarding plans Tri-State Generation and Transmission has for a 200 MW solar facility near Grants is interesting. We have been told over and over by environmental groups that once we shut down coal-fired power plants, those employees who lose their jobs will be able to find high-paying jobs in the renewable energy industry.
    We know from the article that more than 100 employees at the Escalante power plant will lose their jobs, and possibly 40 or so will lose their jobs at the Lee Ranch coal mine, which supplies coal to Escalante. This loss of jobs and the associated support jobs will devastate the Grants/Milan area…

    The article did not state how many of those power plant and coal mine employees will be able to find permanent jobs at the solar power facility, only mentioning it “won’t offer many permanent positions.” If we assume there may be 20 permanent positions available, that leaves as many as 120 former employees needing jobs. For those lucky enough to get a job at the solar plant, will they be paid as well as they were at the Escalante Station and coal mine, and receive the same benefits such as paid retirement, matching 401-K plans and health care benefits? I very much doubt it…
    I understand Tri-State needs to consider economics and costs of its power sources, and the Energy Transition Act passed last year is pushing utilities to retire coal-fired power plants. But it is clearly obvious based on this article most of the people affected will not find new jobs in the renewable energy industry.
    https://www.abqjournal.com/1423603/renewable-energy-is-not-powering-replacement-jobs.html

    23 Feb: BusinessTodayIndia: Solar installations decline 12% to 7,346 MW in 2019
    Multiple issues led to the decline in solar additions like, slowing economy, liquidity issues, tariff caps, lack of financing, payment delays, and power purchase agreement renegotiations in Andhra Pradesh
    by PB Jayakumar
    After five consecutive years of decline, coal accounted for a majority of the power installations with 7.8 GW and made up 44.1% of the installed capacity, followed by solar with 7.3 GW. Wind accounted for 2.4 GW followed by small hydro and other renewables with 154 MW and 82.5 MW respectively. Even with coal installations rising, renewables collectively still made up a majority of the installations in 2019…READ ON
    https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/energy/solar-installations-decline-by-12-percent-to-7346-mw-in-2019/story/396706.html

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    pat

    22 Feb: East Oregonian: With Oregon Republicans ready to walk out, Brown tries to bargain
    By Lauren Dake Oregon Public Broadcasting
    With the cap-and-trade bill headed to a potential Senate vote next week, Republicans are showing more certainty than ever that they will stage the walkout that has long loomed over the session. Democrats are trying to keep them in the building…
    The attempted deal-making is a matter of arithmetic. Democrats need at least two Republicans on hand in the Senate to achieve a 20-member quorum, allowing them to conduct business.
    But so far, it hasn’t seemed to work…

    Republican Leader Herman Baertschiger Jr., R-Grants Pass, said his caucus is “solid” and united against the cap-and-trade bill. For the past week, Republican Senators have been reading proclamations on the Senate floor from rural counties urging them to ensure the bill doesn’t pass…
    If Republicans do stage a walkout, it could come next week. SB 1530 is currently expected to receive a vote in the Legislature’s budget committee on Monday, the last step before the full Senate. That’s as far as many GOP senators are comfortable allowing the bill to proceed…

    Sen. Kim Thatcher, R-Keizer, who has served 15 years in the Legislature, said she sees this as the most “damaging” legislation she’s faced as a lawmaker…
    Under SB 1530, greenhouse gas emissions allowed in Oregon would be capped, and that cap would be reduced over time. Polluters in the transportation, utility and manufacturing sectors would have to obtain state-issued credits for each metric ton of carbon dioxide they emit.
    The bill has spurred intractable disagreement — even among lawmakers who agree that climate change is an issue state government must address…

    (Republicans) worry that the new regulations will increase prices, hurting families and spurring businesses to flee the state.
    https://www.eastoregonian.com/news/state/with-oregon-republicans-ready-to-walk-out-brown-tries-to/article_9896c952-54d3-11ea-a079-8bf34778a9bb.html

    meanwhile, behind paywall, tax-exempt Greenpeace continues to dominate the CAGW narrative. why?

    22 Feb: UK Telegraph: Government warned not to rely on carbon offsetting to reach net zero
    Green charities warn relying on carbon offsetting is a ‘terrible mistake’ after Telegraph investigation showed projects are failing
    By Emma Gatten and Hayley Dixon
    The Department for Transport is currently considering whether to force airlines and other transport companies to include a carbon offsetting charge for all journeys.
    The government has also indicated that it will rely on an international offsetting scheme in order to reach net zero emissions from the aviation industry.

    But they have been warned that they risk making a “terrible mistake” after The Telegraph revealed some voluntary offsetting schemes, which are self-regulated, risk fooling consumers hoping to mitigate their emissions contribution…
    “This would be a terrible mistake,” Greenpeace chief scientist Doug Parr said.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/22/government-warned-not-rely-carbon-offsetting-reach-net-zero/

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    pat

    VIDEO: 6m: 23 Feb: Sky News Front Page: ‘Opportunistic use of bushfires by climate alarmists’ fails to cut through
    A recent Newspoll has found most Australians – 56 per cent – believe the main cause of the recent devastating bushfires was hazard reduction with 35 per cent saying it was due to climate change.
    The Institute of Public Affairs’ Gideon Rozner told Sky News host Gemma Tognini the “opportunistic use of these bushfires by climate alarmists” has failed to convince people of the effects of climate change on disasters like the bushfires.
    “I think it’s turned a lot of people off the broader cause,” Mr Rozner said.
    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6135130098001

    also, “Front Page”/Sky just had front page of tomorrow’s Australian Financial Review.

    Top story: Power stability critical

    a top govt energy advisor is, apparently, warning about the amount of RE in the system…once again. haven’t found it onine as yet.

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  • #
    pat

    VIDEO: 4m54s: 23 Feb: Herald Sun: Greens’ private member’s bills ‘push their radical extinction rebellion philosophy’
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/greens-private-members-bills-push-their-radical-extinction-rebellion-philosophy/video/34b00e86485cdeab145ba2b4223343bd

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      pat

      Youtube: 15m58s: 23 Feb: Sky News: Paul Murray: Labor’s emissions target is ‘extinction rebellion stuff’ which will cost $660 Billion
      Sky News host Paul Murray says Labor’s emissions reduction target policy – which will cost the Australian economy $660 billion – operates under the assumption “the private sector will pay it all (and) you will feel no impact financially”.

      In an interview with David Speers, Mr Albanese outlined how the private sector will bare the burden of the investment to ensure Australia meets a net zero emissions target, which he said will implemented “economy wide”.
      Mr Murray said Labor and other proponents of this target “want to pretend that there’s a couple hundred thousand beautiful green jobs that are going to fall out of the sky,” because ‘transition’ does not mean more jobs, it means “job losses”.
      “This is extinction rebellion stuff”.
      “This bloke wants to pretend 2050 is the job that we’re hiring him for.”
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyLoxl9ttNA

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        Plus one trillion to ruin the grid and change it to unreliables, then I suppose we factor in the massive hit to the economy etc etc .
        Each way Albo has followed Shortens mantra and ideology , Albo will not be opposition leader in the next election .

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        • #
          TdeF

          Man made Global Warming is in the handbook of the Greens and so of Labor. Politicians all believe it. Academics believe it. The Media believe it. The inner city Latte drinkers believe it because their newspapers, the Age, SMH, Financial Review, New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian and the like all believe it. In fact they are against just about everything, fracking, GM food, meat, milk, bread, potatoes, farming and manufacturing and coal.

          The shock is that the people of Queensland, the UK and US do not believe it. The farce is obvious with fracking which has made the US the world leader in reducing CO2 output under the hated Donald Trump. This is a Green vs Green contradiction.

          We have a simple such contradiction where the NSW government outlawed the culling of wild horses where they have just decided to cull 3/4 of them, 15,000 horses shot from helicopters to please the other Greens who want to preserve the habitat of an allegedly threatened rat species.

          If decisions were left to Green politicians, the world would not have nuclear, coal, gas or dams and dry Australia would have to rely on hydro, wind and solar. And we are told we are getting the world’s cheapest electricity and if we buy enough giant batteries, the most stable.

          The only thing missing from all this is any truth. And Albo has to promote a fantasy of a Green future, not based in reality and a total affront to most industrial and agricultural workers who have traditionally voted Labor. The Labor vote is collapsing because Labor policies are ridiculous, anti Australian. Much as Democrat policies are openly Anti American and UK Labor policies anti UK.

          The Labor vote has been crippled by the collapse of manufacturing caused by Union activity and Green restrictions on coal power. The only people who do not understand that are the leaders of the Labor party, supported only by public servants, teachers and nurses and shop assistants. And the only boom area is in public servants under the Labor governments in Victoria and Queensland and Canberra.

          Albo is doomed as Shorten was doomed. In fact having finally driven the car manufacturers out of the country, Labor has completely lost their way. And with the world’s highest electricity prices, heavy manufacturing in Australia is doomed with a whole generation of Labor voters. The only recycling factory in South Australia was forced to close three years ago with the loss of 35 jobs because they could not afford the electricity, such is the Green madness there.

          And the other reason Unions are merging is not power consolidation but the fact of plummeting Union membership.

          Few of the outer suburban Labor voters left will vote for Green policies. And copied Green policies means a vote for Labor is also a vote to destroy Australia’s borders with illegal migration, doubly worrying now with an increasing number of pandemics in a crowded world. So it’s not just Albo, but everyone following. We will end up with a communist Labor party leader, as with Labor in the UK and the Democrats in the US. And they will never be elected.

          30

  • #
    toorightmate

    Is anyone else amused that Assange’s support group is upset that people were eavesdropping on their conversations?
    That is Assange’s tool in trade!!!!!!

    40

  • #
  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    It appears likely that our virus problem came from a lab issue in Wuhan.
    “No one is surprised.”
    Renewable en mass ruin both the regularity of supply and cost of energy.
    “No one is surprised.”
    California and Australia suffered devastating fires.
    “No one is surprised”

    People “who are not surprised” seem no longer to have any political power to speak of,
    nor any ability to provide input to the popular news media.

    Some of them are us. Many of us are old, and think things have changed, and ask why.

    Progressive authoritarians, like those of any other political stripe, have a moral certainty of their beliefs, and no hesitation to impose them
    upon the rest of us for our own good. But the standards for validating a belief in the secular world have softened, and as governments have gotten
    larger and more powerful the ability to impose one’s myths upon a whole nation have increased.

    Simply put, we can, and do make mistakes on a larger scale than ever before.

    We also reduce our resiliance and capacity to cope with extreme events. Look at the issues of any natural monoculture. It is both dominant where
    conditions are ideal, yet fragile when exposed to change.

    Those who are not surprised are skeptics, and not only of the climate idiocy. And, contrary to the popular press, skepticism and optimism can co-exist.
    But looking around the world at what passes for journalism, and leadership, the optimism part is getting harder.

    The Gnome King of Davos wants to unseat the Caretaker of Crude in the US, because the personality of economic success in unsettling; and the parasites
    are suffering malnutrition.

    Politics in Europe and OZ, not to mention the middle east, are similarly roiled.

    Roosevelt ran against one third of a nation, ill-clothed, ill-housed, and ill-fed.
    The current left seems to be running against prosperity; there is a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage and the lights go on when you turn the switch, and this
    somehow offends them. If they have their way, the evil of prosperity will be replaced by the “good” of “equality”.

    And we won’t be surprised.

    40

  • #
    sophocles

    It must be Presidential (re-) Election year in the USA.

    President Putin of Russia is `popular’ … again.

    YAWN.

    20

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Delingpole: ‘We’re All Going to Die of Climate Change!’, Warns Shock JP Morgan Report”

    https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2020/02/23/jp-morgan-were-all-going-to-die-of-climate-change/

    10

  • #
    PeterS

    The MSM are dragging PM Morrison into accepting 0% emissions by 2050, including most people being interviewed on Sky News and by most commentators there. The LNP are also brawling amongst themselves over the issue. At some stage PM Morrison will have to pull his finger out and settle the issue one way or another to stop the internal brawling. He will have to announce what longer term emissions target he is in favour of and more importantly how the LNP intends to achieve it. No ifs and buts like the ALP+Greens are doing who are just waffling along as usual. Otherwise, the LNP will self destruct and hand over the government to the ALP+Greens on a sliver platter.

    20

    • #
      el gordo

      The government haa to humiliate the Opposition.

      ‘Australia’s farmers and the $130bn freight industry have ­demanded Labor make the economic case for its plan to deliver zero net emissions by 2050, warning the policy could put the growth of the key sectors at risk after Anthony Albanese confirmed the target would apply economy-wide.’ Oz

      20

      • #
        PeterS

        The government is doing an good job of humiliating itself and self-destructing. We are witnessing a similar path being developed as under Turnbull. In case you haven’t realised it LNP states are committed to 0% emissions by 2050 and the federal LNP government is going to announce their own long term emissions reduction target. So both major parties are on the same bandwagon of emissions reductions. The point I’m trying to make is there is PM Morrison will not change his mind and turn his back on the whole emissions reduction nonsense. He is committed to reducing emissions drastically, be it 0% or higher, whether you like it or not. All I’m suggesting is he allow the nuclear option to be in the energy mix as it would make it so much better at reducing our emissions than just relying on renewables. This is reality. All the hope in the world will not change the fact that LNP is committed to reducing our emissions drastically for reasons we can discuss later. So stop dreaming that Morrison is somehow going to save us from the emissions madness. He won’t.

        10

    • #
      el gordo

      When all is said and done, there will be a fight back by government.

      ‘The head of the world’s largest coal port says it must transition away from the fossil fuel before it’s too late, but the NSW government is stopping it.’ SMH

      10

      • #
        AndyG55

        Sounds like the “head of the coal port” needs to be replaced forthwith by someone who is more economically and rationally “sound-of-mind” and not INFECTED with “CO2-hate-disease”.

        Can I coin the term “COHD”as pandemic causing irrational mass hysteria?

        Is he suggesting they just shut it down, after all the funds spent on the coal chain from the Hunter Valley ?

        The economic loss to Australia would be staggering. All those miners and train drivers out of work, loss of royalties etc etc.

        And Indonesia would love it, because they have plenty of coal, just a bit lower quality (but still very good), and slightly harder to get at.

        China would also up its coal mining activities.

        It would make absolutely ZERO difference to the release of planetary plant food.

        31

      • #
        Another Ian

        “When all is said and done,”

        “most of it will have been said”

        10

      • #
        PeterS

        The only fight back from the government we are going to see is to match as close as possible the 0% emissions target by 2050. They might come up with a higher level or it might even be 0%. Time will tell. It’s become like a shell game by both major parties. Meanwhile, the LNP is tearing itself apart over all that. Not looking good, which is why Morrison has to come out and thumb his fist on the table to stop the feud. His options are limited. His best option is to adopt the nuclear solution and announce a 0% emissions target. It’s a gamble but just like Howard’s GST policy it’s worth the risk. After all, if he does nothing the party will self-destruct over the emissions issues. It’s clear we have a lot of MPs in the LNP who want a 0% emissions target so the nuclear option is the only realistic way of achieving it.

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        • #
          el gordo

          There is still some hope, Chris Mitchell in the Oz reckons Speers is the best thing since sliced bread.

          ‘He is the best ABC hiring I can remember: David Speers is a month into hosting what has become the most important political program at the national broadcaster.’

          If balance returns to the ABC, we can win this war.

          00

          • #
            PeterS

            Balance returning to the ABC? Since when was there balance in the first place? You are dreaming again. Nice dream but I much prefer reality, warts and all. That way I won’t be disheartened when things go pear shaped.

            10

            • #
              el gordo

              In the old days they didn’t get involved with editorialising, it was against the rules. Lets wait and see if Speers is going to purge the Trots with the blessing of Ita.

              00

  • #
    Another Ian

    “No raw data, no science: another possible source of the reproducibility crisis”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/23/no-raw-data-no-science-another-possible-source-of-the-reproducibility-crisis/

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  • #
    Chad

    Is the SA / Vic power interconnector up and operational again ?
    SA have been drawing 400+ MW from Vic at peak times over the weekend.
    I thought it was sheduled to be out of commission for several weeks yet ?

    00

  • #
    John

    SMH reporting that renewables are threatening the grid!!!

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/take-up-of-renewable-energy-bushfire-crisis-threatening-energy-grid-20200223-p543f3.html

    I had a skeptical comment published on their forums too!

    What’s going on?

    10

  • #

    CLINTEL plans a grand climate debate
    By David Wojick
    https://www.cfact.org/2020/02/23/clintel-plans-a-grand-climate-debate/

    The fast growing Climate Intelligence Foundation (CLINTEL) is planning a major debate on climate change. The event will coincide with the COP 26 UN climate summit in Glasgow this November. Unlike previous attempts at decisive debates, this one has an excellent chance of really happening.

    CLINTEL President, Professor Guus Berkhout, explains the plan this way: “We are starting to organize the ‘debate of all debates’ just prior to COP 26 in Glasgow. More specific, CLINTEL will organize a constructive high-level meeting between world-class scientists on both sides of the climate debate. The meeting will give effect to the sound and ancient principle that both sides should be fully and fairly heard. Audiatur et altera pars. In CLINTEL we call it ‘The Grand Climate Debate’ and we plan to repeat such a landmark event each year! In this way we start a serious global depolarising initiative that could be the beginning of a new era. We propose to use the factual and well formulated World Climate Declaration as a basis for the agenda.”

    Planning is fluid at this point but the ideas being considered are most intriguing. Here is a quick look at just some of them.

    Rather than have debaters wing it, with lengthy ad hoc opening presentations, they will focus successively on the six principles outlined in CLINTEL’s World Climate Declaration. These are central issues in climate science and policy:

    1. Natural as well as anthropogenic factors cause global warming. Nobody knows the ratio between the two.

    2. Warming is far slower than predicted. There is no climate emergency.

    3. Climate policy relies on inadequate models. Models provide poor physical-numerical insight, making updating no more than guessing.

    4. CO2 is plant food, the basis of all life on Earth. CO2 is not a pollutant and more CO2 is indispensable for a greener Earth

    5. Global warming has not increased natural disasters. Increase of natural disasters only exists in computer models.

    6. Climate policy must respect scientific and economic realities. Current medicine (mitigation) is much worse than the disease (warming).

    To avoid speech making there will be strict time limits on statements. The goal is to generate as much back and forth as possible, so that each argument gets fully fleshed out. There will be no lengthy canned presentations.

    Berkhout says “The Secretary-General of the UN, António Guterres, has been invited to organize this grand debate together with CLINTEL. If he refuses to cooperate, the President of the EU will be approached. If the EU also refuses, which would be a huge embarrassment for the mainstream climate community, CLINTEL will even consider the use of trained stand-ins. These will be skeptics who have thoroughly studied the alarmist’s arguments and are prepared to present them.”

    This stand-in concept is aligned with the standard scholastic debating technique, where debaters are assigned a position to defend and their actual beliefs are irrelevant. But again, what a disgrace for the mainstreamers if stand-ins would be required!

    There have been several prior attempts to generate a systematic scientific debate, but each has failed. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt wanted to convene a “Red Team” exercise, but he was blocked by Whitehouse staff on political grounds.

    The National Security Council’s Will Happer argued for a critique of alarmist claims relevant to national security. Reportedly President Trump liked the idea, but it too was killed on the grounds that making big waves is bad in an election year.

    In another case, the Heartland Institute invited several prominent alarmist scientists to a televised debate moderated by John Stossel. None accepted so the skeptics presented their side unopposed. CLINTEL wants to avoid this result at all costs.

    Mind you, the world doesn’t want canned presentations and it doesn’t want stand-inns. What CLINTEL is proposing will be unique and powerful. Looking what they have achieved so far, they can make it happen. Here’s hoping they do! The world needs to see the real debate over the truth in climate science.

    Moreover, Berkhout explains “The point is to have a genuine debate. It will result in a summary, giving an overview of the issues the scientists agree and don’t agree on. This list will be the source of a new global climate research program that is supported by all parties.”

    To conclude, understanding the climate system has the highest priority. That is the responsibility of scientists, not politicians. Politicians should be aware that science always advances via the articulation of critical questions. Climate science needs this, and needs it badly.

    End of article.

    If CLINTEL succeeds, Trump may follow.

    David

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  • #
    pat

    the panel on Sky seemed a bit surprised this story – mentioned in comment #29 – was top of AFR’s front page. they shouldn’t have been, if they’d read the entire piece of CAGW/RE propaganda:

    24 Feb: AFR: Energy security ‘critical’ as renewables surge
    by Angela Macdonald-Smith
    The rapid influx of wind and solar power needed to reduce Australia’s carbon emissions now poses a “critical” risk to the stability of the power grid and requires rising intervention to keep the lights on, the federal government’s top energy policy adviser warns.

    The Energy Security Board’s annual report card warned that ***increased intervention by the national energy market’s operator and large-scale investment in transmission and new technology will be required to keep the grid stable as the rising penetration of weather-dependent renewables threatened early exit of baseload coal-fired power plants.

    The ESB identified “remarkable” growth in renewable energy generation, with wind and solar set to grow from 16 per cent of supply last year to 27 per cent by 2022 and more than 40 per cent by 2030…

    ***The ESB said that falling costs from the increased generation of wind, solar and rooftop solar, along with the federal government’s pressure on electricity retailers, had improved electricity affordability to “moderate-critical” from “critical” last year…
    And it warned, in an apparent criticism of the Morrison government, that policy intervention in the market threatened to undermine investor confidence.

    The Australian Energy Market Operator has intervened to force five solar farms in the West Murray region – from Ballarat in Victoria to Broken Hill in NSW – to halve generation due to instability in the grid, while other solar and wind farms in that region have been delayed from connecting to the system.
    That intervention was a “significant blow” to renewable energy investors in the region…

    The findings from the Kerry Schott-led Energy Security Board put both the state of power system security and supply reliability in the National Electricity Market at “critical” levels, exacerbated by extreme weather events such as this summer’s catastrophic bushfires…
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/energy-security-critical-as-renewables-surge-20200223-p543h4

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  • #
    Ross

    The linked site was setup primarily to follow the Brexit saga with cold hard facts. It has done an excellent job and a key feature has been how it has zeroed in an issue, backed it with facts and presented it in a very short presentation (without losing any key points).
    Over the weekend they have presented a similar “response” to the UK Government’s stupid new announcements on the use of coal. As well as highlighting the futility of it they show up Germany and Merkel’s hypocrisy.

    https://facts4eu.org/news/2020_feb_is_boris_fired_up

    20

    • #
      Chad

      Odd that the UK (Boris ?) would see the need to ban wood burning for domestic heating/cooking when i thought wood was considered “Carbon Neutral” as far as the UN is concerned. ?
      Remember the UK have recently converted their biggest coal fired generator to a wood pellet burner
      Just more F*kwit lunatic politics.

      30

  • #
    pat

    when will the public wake up!

    20 Feb: Calif Governor Gavin Newsom: Ahead of Climate Week, Governor Newsom Announces Executive Action to Leverage State’s $700 Billion Pension Investments, Transportation Systems and Purchasing Power to Strengthen Climate Resiliency
    Governor directs Department of Finance to create a Climate Investment Framework ***to leverage the state’s $700 billion CalPERS, CalSTRS and UC Retirement Program portfolio to drive investment toward carbon-neutral technologies
    Governor Newsom also signs legislation strengthening the state’s emissions standards and establishing the nation’s first “smog check” for diesel trucks…

    State Investments: California has an investment portfolio of over $700 billion through CalPERS, CalSTRs, and the University of California Retirement System. As the state transitions to a carbon-neutral economy, and as other states and countries increasingly adopt ambitious climate policy, the state’s investments must align with the reality of this major market shift. The Governor’s executive order directs the Department of Finance to create a Climate Investment Framework to measure and manage climate risk across the state’s investment portfolio, with the goal of driving investment toward carbon-neutral and climate resilient technologies. The Framework will provide a timeline and criteria to shift investments to companies and industry sectors that have greater growth potential based on their focus of adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change, including investments in carbon-neutral, carbon-negative and clean energy technologies…READ ON
    https://www.gov.ca.gov/2019/09/20/ahead-of-climate-week-governor-newsom-announces-executive-action-to-leverage-states-700-billion-pension-investments-transportation-systems-and-purchasing-power-to-strengthen-climate-resili/

    10

    • #
      pat

      CORRECTION. THE GAVIN NEWSOM PRESS RELEASE SHOULD BE DATED 20 SEPTEMBER 2019.

      10

    • #
      PeterS

      when will the public wake up!

      When they start hurting, by which time things will have deteriorated so badly it will be a hard and long path back to common sense and logic.

      00

  • #
    pat

    links to 11m26s video interview with France24, which ends with pro-Clinton/anti-Trump message. Atwood is a regular guest on their ABC:

    24 Feb: Daily Mail: Author Margaret Atwood brands people who ignore the climate crisis ‘sexist’ – and claims women’s rights and environmental issues are ‘very connected’
    •Claims those who want to suppress women also often deny the climate crisis
    •Credits climate activists such as Greta Thunberg with spearheading movement
    By Monica Greep
    Speaking to France24 (LINK), the author insisted that if you deny climate change then you are in turn suppressing ‘very strong voices’ within that movement…
    ‘There is a vigorous new generation and the climate change movement, I think, is very important,’ she said…

    This isn’t the first time the writer has linked climate change to the rights of women; in 2018 she predicted women will be worst affected by climate change, reported the Guardian…
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8034941/Margaret-Atwood-claims-climate-crisis-rights-women-connected.html

    10

  • #
    pat

    repeated last nite. based on the BAS Doomsday clock:

    AUDIO: 6m40s: 19 Feb: The Art Show: Collection Selection: a 19th century doomsday clock
    By Namila Benson
    At the start of 2020, the Doomsday Clock advanced to 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been to hypothetical global catastrophe.
    Almost two centuries earlier, a beautiful longface clock was sold in Sydney by James Oatley.
    That clock now resides in the Art Gallery of South Australia, and the curator of Australian art, Tracey Lock, explains why she has set the clock to count down to doomsday.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/the-art-show/collection-selection-a-19th-century-doomsday-clock/11977774

    (paraphrasing)
    3m29s: this year the clock in our gallery has been set to 100s before midnight, because of the increasing possibility of a nuclear threat and as a response to climate change and, also, the pervasive war on information. in fact, the Doomsday Clock has never been so close to Doomsday, and so it’s ***great for our visitors to come through and for our guides and people…to talk about some of these issues as well.

    5m30s: Tracey Lock: setting the clock to Doomsday is, I guess, symbolic of the potential catastrophe that the wider world faces. and the fact that, possibly, audiences, children and young people can come through & just have their attention drawn to some of these issues (nuclear and climate devastation), maybe it’s possible they can go forth in the world and ***be inspired to do good things in the world. it all sounds (giggle giggle) a bit idealistic, but you like to think these objects may make an impact on people who come and visit.

    unbelievable.

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  • #
    pat

    heard Fran Kelly promo-ing the CAGW part of the podcast on ABC yesterday; not bothering to listen:

    20 Feb: AUDIO: 31m48s: ABC Podcast: The Party Room: That’s a really good question!
    On The Party Room this week, Fran (Kelly) and (Patricia Karvelas) wonder what the Government is up to on climate change.
    A possible new climate policy has been reported in the papers, but the PM is refusing to say if it’s actually a thing.
    Sydney Morning Herald political and international editor Peter Hartcher joins them to offer his two cents on how he reckons China has played Australia on Coronavirus.
    And why do politicians always say “that’s a really good question”? Are they just being polite or is there another reason?

    Other episodes:
    Nationals tears over climate fears 13 Feb 2020
    Wild weather, wilder politics 30 Jan 2020
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/partyroom/thats-a-really-good-question!/11983380

    10

    • #
      yarpos

      “And why do politicians always say “that’s a really good question”?

      it may actually be a good question
      trying to pump up the tyres of a journo they like
      time to think of an answer

      00

  • #
    pat

    AUDIO: 4m41s: 24 Feb: ABC AM: Australia’s power grid at ‘critical’ status, Energy Security Board says
    By Peter Ryan
    In its annual health check of the grid, the Board says extreme weather over the summer and strain on ageing coal fired power stations have stretched the capacity of the system.

    ***On the upside, the rapid growth in wind and solar generation could see renewable energy account for 40 percent of consumption by 2040, but that is also posing a threat to keeping the lights on.
    Featured:
    Dr Kerry Schott, Chair, Energy Security Board
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/programs/am/australias-power-grid-at-critical-status/11993346

    AUDIO: 3m9s: 24 Feb: ABC AM: Labor holds back on detailing net zero emissions policy
    By Isobel Roe
    The policy announcement has little detail but Coalition and Greens MPs have dismissed it as too ambitious, or not ambitious enough.
    Labor says it can balance coal and emissions targets but it won’t be rushed into working out how.
    Featured:
    Anthony Albanese, Labor leader
    Michael McCormack, National party leader
    Ken O’Dowd, National Party Member for Flynn
    Sarah Hanson-Young, Greens Senator
    Joel Fitzgibbon, Labor Member for Hunter
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/programs/am/labor-holds-back-on-detailing-net-zero-emissions-policy/11993308

    AUDIO: 6m57s: 22 Feb: ABC The Science Show: Robyn Williams: Vast stores of carbon dioxide in seabeds could be released as oceans warm
    Guest:
    Lowell Stott, Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA USA
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/vast-stores-of-carbon-dioxide-in-seabeds-could-be-released-as-o/11988216

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  • #
    pat

    hard to imagine how much more CAGW propaganda theirABC could have broadcast if they’d won the “climate election”:

    AUDIO: 14m39s: 24 Feb: ABC Breakfast: Fran Kelly: Labor accused of reckless commitment to 2050 net zero target
    Severe weather events and the ***ageing of coal-fired power plants are making it harder to keep the lights on with the reliability of the power grid now under “critical” pressure…
    That’s the alarming report card from the Energy Security Board which comes amid a fresh eruption of the so-called climate wars with the Government accusing the Opposition of being “reckless and irresponsible” for committing to a net zero target by 2050 without costing the impact on jobs and electricity prices.
    It also claims that Labor’s decision to include agriculture in its plan to cut greenhouse gasses will lead to a “dramatic reduction” in the number of Australian cattle.
    But Anthony Albanese is playing down the potential disruption.
    Guest: Angus Taylor, Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/labor-accused-of-reckless-commitment-to-2050-net-zero-target/11993246

    ***Clare Walter wants more power over diesel vehicles:

    AUDIO: 3m23s: 24 Feb: ABC AM: Air pollution: experts call for national committee to advise on health impacts
    By David Sparkes
    In the wake of bushfires that sent thick smoke pouring into major population centres this summer, experts on air pollution are calling for a national committee to be formed to help navigate similar problems in the future.
    If established, the committee would look at all types of air pollution, and give guidance to policy makers and the general public.
    The Health Minister Greg Hunt says he’s open to looking at the proposal
    Featured:
    Professor Sotiris Vardoulakis, Australian National University
    ***Clare Walter, University of Melbourne, University of Queensland
    Greg Hunt, Health Minister
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/programs/am/air-pollution-experts-call-for-national-committee/11993332

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  • #
    pat

    for theirABC, no amount of rain clouds have a silver lining:

    24 Feb: ABC: Farmers still in the grip of drought despite widespread rain
    7.30 By Nadia Daly
    Updated about 4 hours ago
    Third-generation sheep farmer Chris Blunt has not seen rain for so long that all 30 dams on his 1,000-hectare farm are empty.
    “The family has been here since 1902 … and I think this is probably the driest the forebears or myself have experienced,” he said…
    “It’s quite depressing at times to see the big black clouds coming towards you and you hold out hope, you get quite anxious about it, and nothing happens,” he said.
    “It does start playing with your psyche a little bit.”…
    ‘It certainly hasn’t broken this drought’

    Farmers have almost become used to the pattern of hope and disappointment, made worse by the images of rain and flooding that have reached their fellow landholders in other parts of the country.
    They want the rest of Australia to know the drought is far from over.
    “I’ve got to say we’re quite resilient, but no-one’s completely infallible. And even the strongest of us, it starts messing with you at times,” Mr Blunt said.

    The continued wait for rain while others watch their dam and creeks fill up is taking a toll on the mental health of many farmers.
    “It has at times affected me, I will say that,” Mr Blunt said. “Not at a depressive level, but I’d just say it’s normal anxiety.”
    The weather bureau said that for many properties in the region, the state of the soil and the long stretch without rain meant they would need several months of above-average rainfall to take them out of drought.

    “Some people are getting enormous rain and their next-door neighbours are getting virtually nothing,” Mr Blunt said…
    “It certainly hasn’t broken this drought, that’s for sure.”…

    It is a similar story at Anne Knoblanche’s cattle stud property, located 50 kilometres west of Mr Blunt’s…
    “There’s a lot of farmers have to consider moving forward … there’s a lot of anxiety around what’s coming,” she said.
    “A lot of places have had a bit of rain. But is there a complete change in climate? Or is this just a drought and in the next five years it’s going to be fine?
    “I think that what’s happened is people have lost their overall confidence in the climate and the environment.”…

    Both farms received some patchy rain one evening last week, enough to wet the soil and see a little water flow in the creek on Mr Blunt’s property, but not enough to break the drought.
    Watch this story tonight on 7.30.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/farmers-still-in-the-grip-of-drought-despite-rain/11985368

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  • #
    pat

    behind paywall:

    24 Feb: Australian: Bulk of GetUp donations spent on salaries, travel
    Exclusive by Brad Norington, Associate Editor
    GetUp spent more than 70 per cent of the $12.4m in public donations it raised last year on staff salaries, administration costs and travel, despite telling supporters “every dollar” they gave would be used to build a fairer Australia with spending on
    billboards, hard-hitting TV ads and rallies.

    The left-leaning activist group devoted $3.6m from its annual donations total to “campaign ­expenses” in a federal election year while outlaying $7.2m on salaries and employee benefits…
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/bulk-of-getup-donations-spent-on-salaries-travel/news-story/a739b632a5185a4d3ef02d878499e3bc

    20

  • #
    Serp

    Just heard the drongo Victorian Energy Minister announcing the four bins initiative; presumably as part of Dan’s Belt and Road arrangement a full 5G surveillance operation will be embedded in the bins.

    00

  • #
    Zane

    Super funds, which are mostly run by the unions and thus in cahoots with Labor and the Greens, are upping the pressure on companies to get on the climate change bandwagon. The new meme seems to be Net Zero 2050. The various forces running the global climate conspiracy seem to be coalescing around this master plan. The West has to cut back, while for China and India it’s full steam ahead to usurp all our industries. Very clever, comrades.

    20

  • #
    pat

    Sky Channel is CAGW almost all of the time. Kieran Gilbert with Troy Bramston/The Australian seemed to be all about how the Federal Govt would need to go along with net zero by 2050 because States, business are with the program.

    on Chris Kenny show, he had this ***idiocy made by the smug:

    VIDEO: 24 Feb: news.com.au Entertainment/Celebrity Life: ‘Dear Scotty’ video urges Prime Minister Scott Morrison to act on climate change
    Aussie celebrities have delivered a message to Prime Minister Scott Morrison, urging him to act on climate change.
    by Charis Chang; with AAP
    The collective video begins with the line “Dear Scotty”, referring to the Prime Minister, before Baker says “mate, sorry to do this to you”, and other bushfire survivors add “think of this as an intervention”.

    The video produced by Greenpeace urges Mr Morrison to reduce the risk of future disasters by moving to renewable energy and to reflect on the world he will leave for his children if he does not act on climate change.
    “You’re a family man; what sort of world do you want your daughters growing up in?” some of the survivors ask…

    Greenpeace Australia Pacific senior campaigner Nathaniel Pelle said the “Dear Scotty” intervention-style video offered the Prime Minister a chance to redeem himself by acting in the interests of bushfire victims and the wider Australian community.
    “For too long, the federal response to climate change has been dragged down by the dead hand of the fossil fuel lobby, which has far too much influence on Australian politics,” Mr Pelle said.
    “People have lost their lives, families have lost their homes, and koalas have burnt alive all over Australia. In our cities, our kids have at times been forced to breathe the most polluted air in the world.
    “Everyone is feeling the impacts of this coal-fuelled bushfire crisis and we need Scott Morrison to act for their future and the future of all Australians.”…

    Former Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull took to Twitter to weigh in on a topic that lost him his party’s leadership.
    He said the bottom line was if net zero emissions was not achieved by 2050 “the planet will be uninhabitable for billions of people”.
    To get there he said needed “engineering and economics NOT ideology and ***idiocy”.

    “Cheapest, cleanest form of energy today is renewables plus storage and is getting cheaper. So transition to clean and cheaper electricity. Couple that with electrification of industry as well as green hydrogen,” he tweeted.
    https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/dear-scotty-video-urges-prime-minister-scott-morrison-to-act-on-climate-change/news-story/ae655103a9d69f50c7991a08ce332827

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    pat

    we might have no manufacturing to lose, but…

    8 Feb: Reuters: INSIGHT-Shades of Detroit? Germany’s auto heartlands in peril as ‘golden age’ fades
    by Michael Nienaber; Additional reporting by Mark John, Edward Taylor, Ilona Wissenbach and Jan Schwartz
    * German car industry faces challenges on several fronts
    * Electrification and tighter emissions among biggest changes
    * Hundreds of thousands of jobs may be on the line
    When Kristin and Thomas Schmitt took out a mortgage and bought a house last summer, the German couple’s dream looked as if it was coming true. Two months later, they learned that the tire factory where both work would be shut down early next year.

    A malaise in Germany’s mighty automobile industry, caused by weaker demand from abroad, stricter emission rules and electrification, is starting to leave a wider mark on Europe’s largest economy by pushing up unemployment, eroding job security and hitting pay…
    The German auto sector is expected to cut nearly a tenth of its 830,000 jobs in the next decade, according to the VDA industry association.

    Some think-tanks and government officials fear that the toll will be higher as electric cars provide less assembly work than combustion engine vehicles, simple work steps are replaced by automation and companies relocate production.
    This is not yet 1970s Detroit, a U.S. car centre that was plagued by urban decay as factory relocations, cheaper imports and higher fuel prices destroyed jobs…

    “Germany is entering uncharted waters. The transition could well mark the end of the golden age for cars as a mass employer,” said Stefan Bratzel, head of the Center of Automotive Management, a German research institute.
    “For politics, it’s a ticking time bomb.”…

    To help workers affected by the car industry disruption, politicians, companies and labour unions have called on the government to support the shift to alternative technologies such as electric cars or hydrogen-powered fuel cells…
    https://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL8N29Z3DR

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    pat

    behind paywall:

    22 Feb: UK Times: Warwick Tory leader seeks people’s backing to increase council tax for climate change action
    One is an Extinction Rebellion activist, the other a Conservative councillor under a prime minister who has called climate change protesters “uncooperative crusties”. But they forged an alliance after green campaigners persuaded Warwick district council to become the UK’s first to offer residents a referendum on whether to pay about 3% extra in council tax to fund a climate action fund…
    On Wednesday, district councillors are expected to order a referendum on May 7, asking 140,000 residents to increase their taxes for the sake of the environment…
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/warwick-tory-leader-seeks-peoples-backing-to-increase-council-tax-for-climate-change-action-0jvm6xglg

    the insanity of the Guardian:

    22 Feb: Guardian: With every flood, public anger over the climate crisis is surging
    by Gaby Hinsliff
    Sometimes it has felt as if the rain might never stop.
    These storms have gone beyond the point of simply being storms now, each blurring into the next to create a strangely end-of-days feeling.
    Everything is freakishly sodden and swollen, and while the rural flood plain on which I live fortunately hasn’t flooded anything like as badly as some, the rivers are rising alarmingly. Yet still the lashing winds and biblical downpours keep coming. Suddenly the 40 Days of Action campaign that Extinction Rebellion (XR) will launch on Ash Wednesday (26 February), encouraging people to reflect on the environmental consequences of their actions in a kind of green Lent, feels ominously well named.

    This week’s stunt in Cambridge, where XR activists dug up Trinity College’s lawn in symbolic protest at the college’s plans to build on land it owns in rural Suffolk, may be just the beginning. Some ask why these activists aren’t out stacking sandbags for the poor householders of the Wye valley, or canoeing through the streets of Mytholmroyd, West Yorkshire, highlighting the risks of a climate crisis that can only mean more freak flooding.
    Yet in some ways that was the point of targeting Trinity in the first place. Of all the Cambridge colleges, it’s the one identified by student journalists – using freedom of information requests – as the biggest investor in fossil fuel companies blamed for aggravating the climate crisis…

    Better to move fast than wait for activists to dig up your lawn; better to act now, before the river of public anger bursts its banks.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/22/flood-anger-climate-crisis-fossil-fuel

    the writer Gaby Hinsliff is married to James Clark, former director of news and press secretary to Des Browne (Labour), Defence Secretary in the Labour governments of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

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    el gordo

    On the Tibetan Plateau its been observed that hail and severe storms abated after the Great Climate Shift of 1976, more commonly known as global warming.

    http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/feb/a2.php

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    pat

    ???

    behind paywall:

    23 UK Times: Think the flooding is bad now? Britain faes 6ft rise in sea level warns Dutch expert
    Peter Glas, head of Holland’s Delta Programme, which oversees long-term flood risk management, will tell a UK conference that the rise in the level of the North Sea may accelerate sharply from 2050, potentially reaching 2 metres (6½ ft) by 2100.
    That is nearly double the Met Office’s worst-case predictions.

    It follows research at Holland’s Deltares centre, commissioned by the Delta Programme, into the impact of rising sea levels on northern Europe.
    “The rise could potentially accelerate with effect from 2050, entailing far-reaching consequences,” said Glas’s latest report to the Dutch government, which he will cite at this week’s Floodex conference in Peterborough.

    The Delta report added that effects of “the more rapid melting of Antarctic ice sheets” had not yet been incorporated into the programme’s predictions…
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/think-the-flooding-is-bad-now-britain-faces-6ft-rise-in-sea-level-warns-dutch-expert-gl6mlvvqq

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    pat

    wet wet wet:

    23 Feb: Guardian/Observer: UK flood defence plans are inadequate, warn scientists
    More investment and improved planning needed with number of extreme wet days set to rise
    by Robin McKie
    More investment in flood defences and improved planning for future disasters are urgently needed, scientists have warned.
    They predict that the number of extreme wet days – which have already increased this century – will continue to rise in the coming decades and will bring even greater devastation than that experienced this month after Storm Ciara and Storm Dennis swept across the country…

    So far the government has committed to spending £4bn over the next five years on improving flood defences. But both the amount and timescale were criticised for being insufficient last week.

    “Extremely wet days during UK winters are currently up by around 15% compared with previous decades,” said Dann Mitchell of Bristol University’s Cabot Institute for the Environment. “Wetter future winters is a consistent projection with some predicting a 30% to 35% increase in rain by 2070. Our government and town planners need to invest significantly in UK flood defences.”…
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/23/uk-flood-defence-plans-inadequate-warn-scientists

    23 Feb: UK Independent: Greta Thunberg to join Bristol climate strike
    17-year-old due to make speech before joining samba band-accompanied march
    by Megan Baynes, Press Association
    One of the organisers, Milly Sibson, also 17, from Bristol, told the Press Association news agency: “We are all just so excited – everyone is so excited about the thought of hearing her talk.
    “I would love the chance to meet her because she is the founder of this movement and she is so important to it – she is an idol even though she is younger than me.

    Milly said Greta had originally planned to visit London, but as the area planned for the protest in the capital was too small the organisers had recommended Bristol instead.
    The city was awarded the title of European Green Capital in 2015.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/greta-thunberg-climate-change-strike-bristol-a9352481.html

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    WXcycles

    JETSTREAM UPDATE: A new sunken stratospheric display shown new details:

    Due to the visually ‘busy’ relative-humidity display I decided to create a new display that is a subset of relative humidity, to better illustrate the sinking stratosphere, it’s origin, its sinking pathways, its over all character and the way in which it is seen to dilute in to the lower troposphere.

    From this new display I created a .gif animation sequence to fully display what it shows, within the context of the geopotential height pressure gradients. The display is also optimized to show the mechanisms by which such ultra-dry formerly stratospheric air is being diluted as it sinks in:

    Sunken Stratospheric Air Display – From observations in ECMWF 12:01AM on 24th-Feb-2020:
    https://i.ibb.co/bs2hR3P/Sunken-Stratosphere-Observations-ECMWF-12-01-AM-24th-Feb-2020.gif

    Several new details immediately emerged from this:

    (1) The air tends to sink down nearer the polar regions, then falls quickly into the mid-latitudes in cold core Lows. Then it tends to come out from the lows at around the 24,000 foot mark and pool under the equatorward side of the subtropical jetstream flow. Then it often sinks into a major lower-level High pressure system and is pushed equatorwards by the subtropical Highs radial trade wind flow. The very dry air then wraps around lower-level Low-pressure systems within the topics and sub tropics, tending to dry them out and reduce rainfall.

    (2) The very recently sunken ultra-dry air appears to ‘pool’ or aggregate between 24,000 to 14,000 feet, but this is not really the case. What it occurring is the very dry air continues to fall towards the surface, but below 14,000 feet the level of convective overturn and mixing greatly increases as altitude reduces. The result is the ultra dry air appears to decrease (i.e. to not aggregate), but all that is really occurring is its mixing in more vigorously as it falls and does not last long. So if you see an area of pink ultra dry air at 2,000 feet, this is because the rate of in-falling stratosphere is locally so high that convection or the prevailing WX conditions are failing to mix it in fast enough to dilute it.

    (3) And this rapidly diluting ultra-dry air does in fact sink all the way to the surface, and actually does so very regularly, particularly at night, when convective mixing is at its lowest and sinking is at its highest. But that dry air dissipates after dawn. This process could not even be seen within the earlier RH display, but now the diurnal nature of the sinking process has become clear. I’ll make a further animation soon which plainly shows the diurnal nature of it.

    (4) The ultra dry air almost always makes it to the ground over the driest of the planets deserts. See here for example:
    https://i.ibb.co/tB5zHDV/Desert-v-Sinking-Stratosphere-Chicken-or-Egg-Screenshot-2020-02-24-Windy-as-forecasted-15.png

    Number (4) produced a sort of mini ‘Eureka’, because this observation immediately evokes a question: Which came first, the chicken or the egg? The desert or the sinking-stratosphere?

    Does a desert’s existence attract sinking stratosphere to fall on it like this?

    This is very, veeeeery unlikely.

    But can sinking stratosphere which keeps structurally in-falling within the same area trigger the formation and maintenance of a desert?

    This is waaaaay more likely to be the explanation for why it’s seen to be occurring in these locations.

    Consider that the central Middle East was the “fertile crescent”, or the ‘bread-basket’ of agricultural excess production, above survival and demand levels, that led to storage and the formation of civilization based on regional trade of the excess production, via exports, using camel caravans and merchant fleets to increase buffers against drought, deprivation, and disorder. But this was before sinking stratosphere’s preferred location of in-falling migrated over the bread-basket region to dry it out.

    For which humans and their animals and farming techniques were since blamed, the alleged anthropogenic desertification hypothesis is borne. But what if the Sahara’s former green bounty was removed by sinking-Stratosphere that migrated over it? And not via Carthaginians, Greeks or Romans destructively harming the land? What if the epic century or millennial scale droughts in pre-history, which are listed online, which began and ended whole regional civilizations and empires, were in fact due to the gradual migration of the preferred site for stratospheric-sinking air to in-fall over time?

    This also seems a very likely eventuality if sinking stratosphere makes for deserts which can also migrate with the sinking air’s preferred location of in-falling. This mechanism would explain a great deal that has until now gone completely explained, in both weather cycles and true climate-change cycles on a longer time scale.

    But what would cause the in-falling to migrate? Or to have a preferred location of stratospheric sinking in-falling for centuries to millennia in the first place, long enough to create a desert and to alter the entire geomorphology under it?

    The immediate candidate which comes to mind is a migration and concentration of geomagnetic field flux. Could a geomagnetic structure control the preferred sinking points of stratospheric air? As I pointed out since mid Jan the Jetstream has developed a very unexpected preferred global ‘structure’. Its flow is no longer random, its location and pattern has become somewhat predictable and in a completely unexpected and unforeseen way.

    The sinking-stratosphere thus can now be seen to have a preferred sustained sinking area, which does not move about a lot, or at least not very quickly. It seems to fall into roughly the same location. As seen during January and Feb 2020 the sinking air can hang over one location for at least a couple of months, and possibly for a few years–maybe a lot longer than that. I strongly suspect this is the ultimate origin of ‘blocking Highs’, their occurrence and the repeatedly recharged sinking-air patterns within such Highs. They’re not random either, they get stuck repeatedly in roughly the same location. This is the pressure expression of a vertical structure.

    If that’s so it means the tendency to sink the stratosphere in certain locations may not be due to a lack of thermal buoyancy. But instead may be a geomagnetic mechanism driving the sinking. So what would cause such ultra-dry in-falling air, if not thermal? Is it being modulated by the Sun’s relative quiescence? Which inactivity permits the atmosphere molecules and atoms to respond differently to the relatively more dominant and less distorted planetary geomagnetic field flux?

    If the mechanism of a tendency to sink more since Spring of 2019 was purely thermally-driven, you’d expect it to exhibit randomness, and far less sustained ‘structure’ to its in-falling, and to the locations of the jets, which have become unexpectedly structured.

    But when you then also see that this ultra-dry air is consistently falling on to the SAME driest parts of the continent, you know for sure that this is not a random in-falling from the stratosphere. This air is being directed into this location on the surface by some structure or force.

    ***
    THE GENERAL OBSERVATION IN THE LINK IN (4) INDICATES THAT A LONG-TERM REGIONAL AND GLOBAL STRUCTURE EXISTS TO THIS STRATOSPHERIC IN-FALLING, AND IT IS BEING MAINTAINED. AND THAT STRUCTURE LIKELY MIGRATES WITH TIME. WHICH WILL MIGRATE RAINFALL AND BIOTA WITH IT.
    ***

    Thus a climate-change mechanism is being identified in the process. It appears the cause is likely to be geomagnetic, and is probably related to a sustained solar-cycle ‘quiescence’. The fact that ultra dry air falls almost exclusively to ground-level at night, in these locations, of the driest deserts on earth, is not and can not be any sort of fluke.

    Let that sink in.

    The visual correlation shown is undoubtedly structural, it is part of a longer-term established process. This in-falling stratospheric air is the cause for the formation of sustained desert areas overland, and also of areas of desert straddling the margins of warm humid ocean. It’s this falling stratosphere which sets up the windfield which dries them out, and maintains them as deserts, and keeps the humidity blowing routinely offshore, while altering the surface currents.

    As I see things presently, such induced deserts may ‘green’ a desert during natural ‘global warming’ periods, as a more humid phase takes place, simply because the in-falling of ultra-dry stratosphere becomes inhibited to much lower (intermittent) level during such periods of higher solar activity. But as the sun begins to go quiet (for say ½ a century to five centuries or more) the desertification returns with the quiescent Solar phase. Which allows the Earth’s geomagnetic field to then reassert itself, which (somehow, as yet to be determined) induces the stratosphere to start sinking once more down to the lower troposphere, in a much higher volume per unit time flow.

    Thus a cooler and drier phase commences, which exhibits higher WX variability range when the Sun’s activity becomes relatively quiescent. At which point sustained high-volume and globally structured stratospheric-sinking can occur continuously, as it is currently.

    This great excess of in-falling stratospheric air was not present in the atmosphere 2-years ago. But it’s become overtly obvious since late-Spring of 2019 within both hemispheres via the massively expanded, energized and accelerating jetstream flows in both hemispheres. Both of the subtropical jets have since moved relatively equatorward from their more customary sub-tropical locations, and their season specific behaviors have more or less disappeared. Plus the jets have created a formerly completely unknown category of equatorial-jetstream within the Eastern Pacific and equatorial Atlantic basin.

    And of course Western Met Agencies are missing in action and saying nothing whatsoever of any value about it. No point telling BOM to go back to sleep as they never even woke up to it.

    So I made a further animation below of the present day’s Jetstream flow during the last week of Summer in the Southern Hemisphere just to log and establish for all time that this usual seasonal pattern of a much weaker Summer jetstream has now completely disappeared in Dec 2019 through Feb 2020.

    It’s goooooone!

    The troposphere’s mid-level seasonally is no longer driving or governing the jetstream flows, globally. This seasonal moderation has been completely over-ridden and over-printed by the impact of a copious quantity per unit time, of in-falling stratospheric air, which is indifferent to the normal tropospheric seasonal thermal, pressure or humidity range ‘limitations’. Those prior ‘limits’ and patterns have been blown away, the records have been completely smashed, while the spineless incompetent unprofessional hacks at all the .gov Met Agencies all totally failed to even notice this, for which we pay billions. They are totally asleep at the wheel, they have ignored or simply not even noticed all of it! What a bunch of good-for-nothing delusional, clueless fools.

    Anyway, this is where we are now:

    Jetstream comparison North-Hem v South-Hem ECMWF Observations at 12:01 AM on the 24th-Feb-2020
    https://i.ibb.co/7bd5ZQS/Jetstream-Comparison-North-Hem-to-South-Hem-ECMWF-12-01-AM-24th-Feb-2020.gif

    As you can plainly see the southern-hemisphere’s jetstream probably looks even stronger than the northern-hemisphere last night, and that should never happen in late February! The southern-hemisphere is still producing maximum jetstream speeds that are ~185 km/h faster than the 215km/h maximum that they should be right now.

    3AM last night (AEST) over the south Atlantic:
    https://i.ibb.co/9hvdk1r/400-kmh-South-Atlantic-Screenshot-2020-02-24-Windy-as-forecasted.png

    So we’ve entered into a new and entirely different atmospheric regime ove rthe past 3 months that has not been logged in detail before (and the BOM and UK Met Office and US counterparts totally failed to notice it). The seasons no longer have complete control over the lower tropospheric weather trends. Those trends will increasingly be altered by the quantity of air that falls out of the stratosphere, per unit time. And also by where the structured locations it in-falls, are located.

    It’s currently my tentative view that the MWP and LIA most likely resulted from these same mechanisms, operating over longer-term cycles (years, decades, centuries, millennia) and that warming and cooling are most likely due to sustained solar activity variability, and lower activity levels that affect the planets’ geomagnetic structural expressions within the atmosphere.

    As the planets’ geomagnetic structure evolves and moves over time the preferred location(s) of in-falling stratospheric air (down to ground-level) also migrates over the landmasses and oceans as does the rainfall, cloudiness, windfield, flora, fauna, glacial flux and sea level variability.

    Invoking a dismal 0.041% of CO2 within the atmosphere as an ‘explanation’ of global warming and cooling, is clearly not required to explain the recent warming since 1980, until now. For if substantially less ultra-dry stratospheric air falls to sea level, then the resulting increase in non-diluted global humidity level, will be sufficient to warm the planet marginally via increasing the minimum temps at night, via associated reduction of OLR during warming phases.

    It’s this increase in humidity levels which also makes humans feel warmer. Conversely, when the atmosphere is ultra-dry at the surface levels and above the OLR rises sharply and the Sun delivers no warmth in Winter, as the atmosphere cools more quickly after sundown to reach a lower minimum before dawn. Thus humans feel colder much sooner when the air is ultra dry at night. But if it’s very humid the opposite occurs, people feel the heat much more, even though the temperature may actually be no higher. Which is what most (unedited) met data suggests is really going on, with all this talk of ‘global warming’.

    Actual slow cooling probably does require other factors like a change in albedo and cloud cover (combined with a higher OLR of ultra dry air) to trigger a NET ice expansion during each year, or decade.

    In light of this, one could ask if the entire late Cenozoic global cooling, plus the Quaternary climatic oscillations are simply the global accentuations of the natural evolution of the Sun, which progressively came to overprint the orbital and geomagnetic trends that were already in place?

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      WXcycles

      Animation of ultra-low RH stratospheric air sinking all the way to ground level.

      Shows clearly that the ultra-low humidity air almost never sinks to the surface anywhere which is not already desert. It mostly sinks during the night and is lifted again by the morning Sun’s warmth and convection.

      Desert Surface Diurnal Ultra-Low Relative Humidity Occurrences:
      https://i.ibb.co/C6L3rrg/Desert-Surface-Diurnal-Ultra-Low-Relative-Humidity-Occurrence-ECMWF.gif

      Sometimes the rate of in-falling becomes so high that ultra-low RH air can make it down to the surface even during the day. The very high rate of sinking stratosphere over west Africa is associated with a static cold-core Low-pressure system that’s driving the northern side of the Atlantic Equatorial-Jet. Plus from air in a Sahara High that’s sits under the tropical Jetstream there. The base of the jetstream there is completely loaded with sinking stratosphere. It’s this same jet which is creating the long-lived zonal jetstream structure which currently extends 2/3 of the way around the northern hemisphere (since early January), to the central Pacific where it links up with the E Pacific Equatorial-Jet.

      Why would the driest stratospheric air, falling into the troposphere, sink only down to the surface in the locations of the driest of deserts on the planet?

      This situation represents the classic chicken verses egg. It’s fairly clear logically, that the falling stratosphere has a longer term in-falling ‘structure’ (which is otherwise unseen, undetected and has not been recognized prior) which creates and maintains deserts via stratospheric air always falling into the same general locations, for years, decades, centuries, or millennia.

      Sometimes the ultra-dry air stops falling in such high volume–globally. It may even stop completely so that the desert can become much wetter and greener again for a few years or decades, or even a century, until the ultra dry air suddenly returns again to this same location again via the same controlling and guiding in-fall structure within the lower stratosphere.

      This is apparently why true deserts form. It’s not all wind patterns, orographic terrain or rain shadows. This in-falling stratospheric air is clearly a major factor as to why true deserts exist at all. And why cyclic structured releases of sinking stratospheric air cause the ‘desertification’ to wax and wane in intensity over many decades.

      Currently it appears we’re entering into a new phase of global ‘browning’ and desertification, with likely development of chronic drought conditions still to come.

      (It will not be pretty. We can be sure it’s real causes will be misrepresented and lied about avidly by the mainstream lie-production media machine for the dishonest UN and the useless pathologically dishonest politicians, and the opportunistic virtue-signaling concern-trolling pop-stars on the make, plus Red-Cross famine appeals hosted by Koshi. … authenticity nowhere to be found …)

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    pat

    h/t Chris Kenny/Sky:

    VIDEO: 1m21s: 18 Feb: UK Sun: ‘WASTE OF MONEY’ GMB viewers slam ‘out of touch’ Esther Rantzen as she defends £154 BBC licence fee that ‘people don’t want to pay’
    by Joe Duggan
    GOOD Morning Britain viewers today blasted ‘out of touch’ Dame Esther Rantzen for backing the BBC licence fee.
    The veteran TV presenter, 79, insisted the Beeb’s £154 levy was ‘hugely good value’ while speaking with GMB hosts Richard Madeley and Ranvir Singh.
    But GMB viewers attacked the charge as a ‘waste of money’…

    ***(Rantzen) added: “If this planet survives it will be due to two words: David Attenborough.”…
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10987769/gmb-bbc-licence-fee-esther-rantzen/

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    pat

    23 Feb: Reuters: Climate change gets first mention in G20 finance communique of Trump era
    by Andrea Shalal, Michael Nienaber; Additional reporting by Jan Strupczewksi
    RIYADH – Finance officials from the world’s 20 biggest economies (G20) on Sunday referenced climate change in their final communique for the first time in U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, but stopped short of calling it a major risk to the economy.
    The United States blocked including climate change on a list of downside risks to global growth that had won agreement by nearly all other G20 delegates, but ultimately agreed to permit a reference to the Financial Stability Board’s work examining the implications of climate change for financial stability.

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin played down the importance of the language included, calling it a “purely factual” reference to work being done by the FSB. But several G20 sources said it marked progress toward greater recognition of the economic risks posed by climate change.
    “I did not bend to pressure from the Europeans,” Mnuchin told reporters after the release of the communique, bristling at the characterization of one reporter…

    One of the G20 sources said it was the first time a reference to climate change had been included in a G20 finance communique during Trump’s presidency, even though it was removed from the top of the joint statement…
    Delegates worked out the compromise this weekend after Washington objected to a proposal to add “macroeconomic risk related to environmental stability” to a list of downside risks to global growth, two G20 diplomatic sources said.

    The final version of the communique eliminated those words from the first paragraph, leaving the only mention of climate concerns in the context of the work being done by the FSB further down in the document.
    That passage reads: “Mobilizing sustainable finance and strengthening financial inclusion are important for global growth and stability. The FSB is examining the financial stability implications of climate change.”
    “We welcome private sector participation and transparency in these areas.”
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-communique/climate-change-gets-first-mention-in-g20-finance-communique-of-trump-era-idUSKCN20H08Q

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    pat

    behind paywall…good opening, but I think it goes CAGW-awry after these excerpts:

    21 Feb: UK Telegraph editorial: Environmentalists must stop talking hot air
    Most people want to do their bit to help the environment. The problem is that the goal posts keep shifting (wood-burning stoves and diesel cars are encouraged one minute, discouraged the next) and trust is undermined by false promises.

    A lot of what we recycle, it turns out, has been shipped off to poorer countries and dumped in landfill – and, as we reveal today, consumers are being misled by a Wild West market in carbon offsetting.

    One can compensate for polluting the planet by ticking a box to protect a forest, but there is no guarantee that it will actually happen. Given the money and good intentions being poured into this industry, it is a crushing disappointment…
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2020/02/21/environmentalists-must-stop-talking-hot-air/

    behind paywall:

    23 Feb: UK Telegraph: The police’s inaction over Extinction Rebellion is criminally disturbing
    by Daniel Hannan
    Tweet something unwoke and you’ll have your collar felt. Deliberately and determinedly deface a Cambridge college, on the other hand, and the police will stand by and watch. Not only that, they will use emergency powers to divert traffic, giving you a clearer run at your target.

    Coppers are human beings, sensitive, like everyone else, to political currents. In the present climate, any infraction of the norms associated with identity politics is considered a heinous offence. Environmentalism, by contrast, is seen as A Good Thing, so we tend to smile indulgently when the more fanatical eco-activists overstep the mark.

    When I say “we”, I don’t mean the general population: most people take the sensible view that damaging property is a more serious matter than expressing an opinion. I am referring, rather, to what Antonio Gramsci called the “cultural hegemony”, the dominant ideology as upheld by public intellectuals, broadcasters, politicians, commentators and, these days, actors. It is to their mood, not that of the country at large, that ambitious chief constables defer…
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/23/polices-inaction-extinction-rebellion-criminally-disturbing/

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    pat

    behind paywall – last para excerpted found on Carbon Brief:

    21 Feb: UK Telegraph: The ban on coal and wood drives away the very people who trusted the Tories
    by Charles Moore
    This pointless policy might pacify the city-dwelling green lobby, but it will alienate everyone else.
    Everyone – even Greta Thunberg – has a metaphorical carbon footprint, but I have a literal one. Each morning during the winter months (in rural areas, that’s late September to mid-May), I descend to the cellar, fill the coal-scuttle, and carry it up to my study. To my wife’s annoyance, my carbon footprint is often visible on the carpet.

    By the warming flicker of the resulting coal fire, I write, among other things, this column. From my desk, I look out on our other source of particular, as opposed to central, heating – our wood-stack. If we did not keep the home fires burning, I would be too cold and therefore too cheerless to keep the supply of columnar ideas coming. So when a Conservative government decrees this week that our bituminous house coal will shortly be banned and my logs carefully adjudicated by inspectors to work out their noxiousness, I take it personally…

    The Leave victory in the 2016 referendum, and its confirmation in last December’s general election, showed how dramatically the ‘people from somewhere’ had rejected control by the ‘people from anywhere’. Yet the false doctrine of climate emergency is treating people from somewhere as if they were people from nowhere. If Boris Johnson is not careful, he will face both electoral and economic emergencies as a result…
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/21/ban-coal-wood-drives-away-people-trusted-tories/

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    pat

    FT is behind paywall. some excerts here:

    22 Feb: Yahoo: Financial Times: UK’s top ***pension scheme tackles Barclays on climate change
    by Attracta Mooney
    Nest, the UK’s largest pension fund with 8.5m members, has called on Barclays to present a “clear and robust plan” to phase out financing some fossil fuel companies as the bank faces growing pressure over its role in global warming.
    The UK state-backed retirement scheme said it would support a landmark climate change resolution that will go to a vote at Barclays’ annual meeting in May.

    The proposal, which was filed by 11 shareholders with a combined £130bn in assets, asked the bank to stop financing energy companies that are not aligned with the Paris Agreement to tackle global temperature rises. Barclays ranks as the world’s sixth-largest backer of fossil fuels and the largest financier of fossil fuel of any European bank, exceeding its peers by $27bn, according to campaign group Rainforest Action Network…
    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6311838c-da71-3fdd-8bfd-67703facaf84/uk%E2%80%99s-top-pension-scheme.html

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    pat

    how pathetic. pic of a smug Prof Taylor, who was the chief energy expert witness at a public inquiry:

    22 Feb: Sky UK: Government ‘failing to show leadership’ over plans for new coal mines
    Some residents in Northumberland are against plans to open a new site near Druridge Bay, which has a rich history of coal mining.
    by Lisa Holland – Senior news correspondent
    Environmentalists and scientists have told Sky News that the government is failing to show leadership over the opening of new coal mines…
    We have been examining a long-standing application to open a new mine within a kilometre of the dunes of Druridge Bay in Northumberland…

    Britain does still need coal, but not nearly as much as it used to…
    The government plans to phase out coal-fired power stations by 2025.
    But there is still a domestic demand for the fossil fuel in industries such as steel, cement and even heritage railways.
    In 2018, Britain imported just over 10 million tonnes of coal which accounted for 80% of the country’s coal usage.
    Nearly half came from Russia. It is also imported from America, Australia and Columbia.

    Banks Mining, which wants to open the new Northumberland mine, argues it is better to use local coal than bring it from overseas.
    But the company is refusing to guarantee it will not export any abroad…

    Evidence was presented to the inquiry that emissions created by transportation are insignificant compared to the emissions from burning coal.
    Professor (Phil) Taylor, (Director National Centre for Energy Systems Integration CESI) argues that coal from existing global coal mines should be used first as those are “committed emissions”.
    He said: “If we want to make cement and steel we can do that with coal from other places. We can get that from coal mines that have already opened.”…
    https://news.sky.com/story/government-failing-to-show-leadership-over-plans-for-new-coal-mines-11939748

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