JoNova

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On cue — after droughts and fires, then come the floods

So much for the “hotter drier” future they were warning us about 3 weeks ago

As predicted, droughts in Australia often end in floods. It is the way it has always been. Today people are already being rescued from the rising water and possibly another 200 -300mm of rain may fall before Sunday warns the BOM. Many fires have been extinguished.

Climate change has made no difference to the drought trends in Australia in the last 178 years and climate models are totally skilless at rainfall. When will the climate modelers admit that these are natural cycles?

‘We’re only half way through’: East coast smashed by flashflooding and heavy winds

Forecasters become increasingly concerned that even more rain could fall even faster than expected as five people have been rescued from floods.

The NSW State Emergency Service issued a flood warning for Sydney’s metropolitan areas, saying forecast weather conditions were “likely to cause widespread flooding”.

Flooding has already occurred in Roseville in Sydney’s Upper North Shore and the north-western suburb of Putney, where commuters are advised to allow extra travel time.

Meteorologists have said they are increasingly worried about the unfolding weather events in New South Wales and have “great concerns” that “intense bursts” of rain could see hundreds more millimetres fall far quicker than originally expected.

NSW and Qld weather: flood warnings as torrential rain hits Sydney and much of east coast

The NSW Rural Fire Service said the heavy rain was welcome in bushfire-ravaged parts of the state.

“We were over the moon to see rain arrive across many parts of NSW, with decent falls in the state’s north,” the RFS said on Thursday night.

When will our climate experts and the ABC “Science ” team mention that the solar cycles and ocean currents are linked to rainfall all over the world, and their models contradict each other, show no skill and are useless at rainfall.

Five years after rain returns, climate modelers redo models and “predict” more, less, some, different or same rain

Australian – Asian rainfall linked to solar activity for last 6000 years

Sun controls half of the groundwater recharge rate in China for last 700 years

Solar effects seem to shift wind and rainfall patterns over last 3000 years in Chile

Climate Models: 100% right except for rain, drought, storms, humidity and everything else

Delighted to hear it’s raining. Hoping everyone stays safe and its “well spread”.

 

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Rating: 9.3/10 (69 votes cast)
On cue -- after droughts and fires, then come the floods, 9.3 out of 10 based on 69 ratings

203 comments to On cue — after droughts and fires, then come the floods

  • #
    Deano

    Don’t worry Jo – they can use this to prove sea levels are rising.

    90

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      No they can’t Deano !
      Massive rain events means massive evaporation !
      That means see levels are falling !

      :-)

      80

      • #
        sophocles

        Does that mean the average of massive evaporation and massive rain is that sea levels remain the same?
        Good.
        I do like to live beside the sea side. :-D

        20

    • #
      TdeF

      Yes, but all rain comes from the sea.

      And fresh water represents 2.5% of all surface water. Of that only 0.3% is in rivers, dams, lakes and swamps. The rest is in Antarctica, Greenland, Glaciers, the Great Lakes, Lake Baikal. And the Greens hate dams where in Australia dams are our only hope of drinking water.

      The snow which falls in central Antarctica though is there for good and it is growing, dropping sea levels in the Southern ocean.

      80

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      Not much here yet, and the radar shows it heading out to sea. Let’s hope there’s more coming.

      20

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Heavy rain after a heavy drought is ….of course…not weather but “climate change(tm)”

      10

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Apparently humans cause fires….?

        https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/climate-change-could-lead-to-increase-in-dangerous-firestorms-that-were-once-rare-20200206-p53yd8.html

        “A pyroCB event occurs when the intense heat from the fire causes air and smoke to rise and draws in cooler air. If the air cools enough, the moisture in the plume condenses and forms a pyrocumulus cloud.

        “Under the right conditions, the cloud can mix with ice particles and cause lightning, producing a thunderstorm – known as pyrocumulonimbus.
        …….

        “Scientists note climate change will alter ground-level weather and the upper atmosphere, making conditions more conducive to pyroCBs. This risk highlights the need for more predictive modelling and tools.

        “At the moment, predicting where pyroCBs will hit is difficult, with the RFS erring on the side of caution as the consequences are too severe if something goes wrong.

        00

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          Interesting. “Intense heat” gets a mention, but not the burning fuel which is the direct and immediate cause. Nor is it mentioned that those dangerous fuel loads were in National Parks or in other bureaucratically controlled spaces. Also omitted is the reporting of the major recommendation from all previous inquiries to reduce fuel loads in NPs etc while NPs fire trails have been closed off.
          Other than that, it’s a great article.
          Cheers
          Dave B

          60

  • #

    Searing drought, massive fires, now extreme flooding…

    Party like it’s 1852!

    240

  • #
    • #
      Bill In Oz

      with luck, it will cycle down the East coast
      And drench East Gippsland !
      That is what has happened in the past..

      80

    • #

      It’s raining lots in Feb and thoughts fly back to the Big One in 1955. We don’t want that much!

      Being curious about falls in the Hunter catchment I found that Murrrundi has a fairly complete record from the 1870s till now (though you’ve got to hang skeptical about newer readings from those buggy automated gauges).

      Like a few places in the central-east region, notably Sydney, Murrurundi had its driest year in 1888. What’s interesting is that its wettest was in 1887. That’s the thing about Australia: it makes you wait forever then suddenly serves you much more than you can take home in a hundred doggy bags.

      250

      • #
        beowulf

        Far from a 1955 flood event MM. You might have had a drenching up on the Mid-North Coast, but here in the Hunter we’ve had bugger-all thus far. I’ve had 25mm all up, mostly as drizzle/light showers over several days. One hot westerly wind will blow that moisture away in half a day. Still waiting for the other 500mm. At least the grass — what was left of it — is no longer crunchy under foot, and the trees in the backyard might stop dying for a while.

        About 100mm predicted over the next 3 days. We’re only on Level 2 restrictions ATM but the Hunter dams are falling fast, 0.6% lower over the past week despite a few showers.

        50

        • #
          AndyG55

          I doubt there has been much new run-off, ground had to get “full” first.

          30

          • #
            beowulf

            You might be surprised Andy. The initial reaction of dry soils is to shed water before the pore spaces open sufficiently to absorb it, and they also become chemically hydrophobic. Saturation is not a prerequisite for runoff. Gentle rain soaks in a lot more effectively than a storm downpour. Ask an old farmer.

            There have been some good storm rains over Barrington Tops in the headwaters of Chichester and Williams Rivers lately which would have produced runoff purely by their intensity and the steep terrain on which the rain fell. Dry ground wouldn’t stop runoff under those conditions. I would expect Chichester Dam level to show some signs of improvement. The dense vegetation in its catchment may be slowing the runoff effect. Any runoff would be slower to impact Grahamstown via the Williams River.

            30

      • #

        I don’t know how dramatic a turn-around this current lot of rain will represent. If it really beefs up it will rate as historic, since the 2019 drought already deserves to be called that, at least here on the midcoast. No doubt if a big flood does come on the heels of this last dry it will be “unprecedented”.

        The stunt consists not in denying the past but in obscuring it. Every new event will be held up to the light and examined like a precious vintage for the slightest supposed difference or anomaly. This can be done without fear of contradiction since detail will always be less for past events. There’s also a trick of language involved: use as many comparatives as possible but allow few points of comparison.

        We’re supposed gradually to unknow what every Australian till recently was told on grandpa’s knee, who heard it from his grandpa, who may have heard it from Charles Sturt…

        The year 1826 was remarkable for the commencement of one of those fearful droughts to which we have reason to believe the climate of New South Wales is periodically subject. It continued during the two following years with unabated severity.

        The surface of the earth became so parched up that minor vegetation ceased upon it. Culinary herbs were raised with difficulty, and crops failed even in the most favourable situations.

        Settlers drove their flocks and herds to distant tracts for pasture and water, neither remaining for them in the located districts. The interior suffered equally with the coast, and men, at length, began to despond under so alarming a visitation.

        It almost appeared as if the Australian sky were never again to be traversed by a cloud.

        But, however severe for the colony the seasons had proved, or were likely to prove, it was borne in mind at this critical moment, that the wet and swampy state of the interior had alone prevented Mr. Oxley from penetrating further into it, in 1818.

        Yep. Oxley ventured into one Australia, Sturt into another. People were starting to work it out. By that drought of the late 1830s which stopped the ‘bidgee they had really worked it out. Now we have to be made to forget it, and even ignore the evidence of our senses. That will take a lot media! Have you had your media today?

        40

  • #
    AndyG55

    Darn it, now I’ll have to get the mower out. !

    There ya have it.

    Rainfall causes CO2 emissions,

    because it makes grass grow really quickly,

    … which means you have to mow lots more often.

    Therefore rainfall causes “climate change™”

    Which in turn causes drought and/or rainfall.!

    No wonder the climate kiddies are so confused !

    180

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      No, No, No No !
      Andy, all that grass growing is inhaling CO2
      And exhaling Oxygen
      Via photosynthesis !
      So there will be less CO2 now
      And thus less of something or other as well…………
      Not sure what
      ( Ummmmm…. Scratching my head in puzzlement
      No doubt some bewildered climate alarmist will tell us soon ! )
      Meanwhile back to the mowing !
      :-)

      70

    • #
      glen Michel

      It had been so long since I got the mower out that I neglected to put oil in the mix, consequently stuffing the mower.

      70

  • #
    Graeme Bird

    Soil development after the ubiquitous creation of water retention landscapes, is the way to deal with floods, droughts and fires, all at the same time. Dark rich soils retain water. Whether we can statistically show that fires are not any worse or that floods are not any worse, can be a little besides the point (thought its a good thing to do) when the left has this meme out there that higher CO2 is causing both droughts and floods. Doesn’t matter that what they are saying makes no logical sense. Well it matters quite a lot but its not decisive when they own all the drummers and the drumbeat.

    Water retention landscapes are their own reward. But here we have an opponent who cannot be reasoned with, who has a propaganda budget we cannot match. So we have to get out front of it with the water retention landscapes idea. No more droughts or floods. With lots of burning now and lots of grazing later, no more gigantic fires either. We don’t have the luxury this time of waiting many decades for the results of libertarian piety to kick in. This is business, and sometimes you have to get out in front.

    132

  • #
    TdeF

    “I love a sunburnt country,
    A land of sweeping plains,
    Or ragged mountain ranges,
    Of droughts and flooding rains”
    Dorothea Mackellar. 1904.

    Describing the plain truth of the Federation drought in the time the BOM and CSIRO forgot, prior to 1909.

    The sub tropical world of East Coast Australia. On time and sorely needed this year. As every year.

    241

    • #
      John

      I’m suprised the “scientists” haven’t tried to homogenise the lyrics yet.

      240

      • #
        AP

        We are not allowed to acknowledge the role of the sun, so the first line is gone.

        Homogenising the next two lines becomes:
        “A land of gentle rolling hills”

        And then

        “Of gentle constant rain”

        Yep, sounds about right. Now lets revise history, because that’s what Dorothea Mackeller actually meant. Just like those silly olden days people who couldn’t read thermometers!

        150

      • #
        John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia

        Like they want to homogenize our national anthem.
        Imagine if the lefties in America tried that? Their gun laws, guaranteed by the US constitution, aren’t there for nothing.

        40

  • #
    Speedy

    And we’re supposed to reconstruct our economy on the basis of their climate models, using “homogenised” BOM data? Are they incompetent, corrupt or both? Hmmm…

    140

    • #
      Graeme Bird

      The understanding that all the graphs are faked is esoteric knowledge. People understand that here. But almost nowhere else.

      71

    • #
      Big Al

      Both; the first could be categorized as nonfeasance for which those nitwits should get fired, anyway, but the second is malfeasance because they are being paid with public money and producing fraudulent reports, which is a crime punishable by a jail sentence.

      40

    • #
      Just Thinkin'

      Speedy.

      The BOM….

      “The Bureau of Mysteries”

      They can’t even predict one day ahead correctly…or a week…

      What hope have they got for 10, 20, 30, 40 years hence?

      I mean, that is BELIEVABLE…

      80

  • #
    John

    Not so fast Jo. The Garnaut climate review clearly made reference to not just bushfire, but also “flooding”. So this rain also proves climate change. It’s ALL proof of climate change, see?

    130

    • #
      Deano

      Reminds me of my infallible betting system:- Bet on every horse in a race then claim you’re a gambling genius.

      130

      • #
        Binny Pegler

        Or be like the BOM – Divide all the horses in the race in 2 even groups then ‘Forecast’ a 50% change of 1 of the horses in group A: winning. Yes, the BOM actually does charge the tax payers $X million to forecast a 50% chance of either above or below average rainfall.

        50

    • #
      Graeme Bird

      Yeah exactly. Thats the point I’m trying to make. I’ve hung out with these leftists under many different handles. They have all bases covered.

      If it floods its climate change. If there are droughts its getting hotter. If we have horrifying fireballs rolling across the countryside, well thats because of fossil fuels. A cold snap is global weirding. If you find children smoking strange cigarettes in the trees, with tea cosies on their heads, then this is due to high CO2 levels. If the waves start rolling out backwards at Cronulla, thats the oceans acidifying.

      And if an old woman runs naked down the streetsscreaming, the leftists all nod wisely because they know its global warming.

      141

  • #
    WXcycles

    We’ll have to get little floaties for the Koalas!

    90

  • #
    Hasbeen

    Here in SE Queensland, near the NSW boarder, last year was our third driest year since records were kept. It was only slightly drier than 1994, & 1902 was only a few millimeters drier again.

    At the other end of the scale, 1893 was by far the wettest we’ve had by a foot or more. 2017 gave us the highest flood in living memory, but the 1947 flood came close.

    I defy anyone to detect any trend in that, either of global warming or rain fall.

    110

  • #
    Hasbeen

    I should have mentioned that after 480mm last year, we have had 300mm in the last 3 weeks.

    60

  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    My predictions:

    !. It is dry and it will never rain again.
    2. It is raining and it will never stop raining again.
    3. Everything is good and will never get bad again.
    4, Everything is bad and it will never get good again.
    5. It is disaster coming and the end of the world is near.
    6, The world will continue forever just as it is.
    7. Given enough time and opportunity, anything that can happen will happen.

    Now all you have to do is forget my predictions that were wrong and remember only the predictions that were right. I will then have a perfect prediction record and be the prophet of the ages.

    This is how prediction is actually done. If enough people predict enough things often enough, someone will be right sometime. Then forget all the wrong predictions and put your money in the predictions that were right. Finally, go bankrupt because the prediction didn’t stay right for long enough for you to sell your interest in it to some other sucker.

    The future happens and there is nothing we can do about it until it happens except hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

    140

    • #
      Mark

      Lionell Griggith:

      7. Given enough time and opportunity, anything that can happen will happen.

      That is the truest prediction you could ever hope for.
      Far too often the “experts” see something happening and try to convince us that it will continue to happen without the realization that things will ALWAYS change.

      There is one certainty in life, apart from death and taxes, and that is “CHANGE”

      100

    • #
      Another Ian

      “Timing has a lot to do with the success of a rain dance” Baxter Black

      60

  • #
    Don B

    More than 100 years ago a young poet knew that Australia was a land of droughts and flooding rains.

    https://www.dorotheamackellar.com.au/archive/mycountry.htm

    Climate activists and their media helpers pretend that history does not exist.

    110

  • #
    Dr K.A. Rodgers

    “Core of my heart, my country!
    Her pitiless blue sky,
    When, sick at heart, around us
    We see the cattle die
    But then the grey clouds gather,
    And we can bless again
    The drumming of an army,
    The steady soaking rain.”

    110

  • #
    shaun0

    Only a fraction of all this is going inland most is on the coastal fringe and going straight out to sea unfortunately. Plenty of dam potential in these areas but that will never happen.

    110

  • #
    Adrian

    But, but, but the BOM said no decent rain before April. They promised us.

    180

  • #
    Vishnu

    Big shindig in Perth next week? Are sceptics attending to set them straight? http://amos-2020.w.amos.currinda.com/#

    22

    • #
      el gordo

      Its nothing to do with us, but I would like to find out if the IOD and SAM have an electrical connection.

      40

    • #
      el gordo

      There is a teleconnection between IOD, SAM and ENSO, which makes Australia a place of drought and flooding rains. The fauna and flora have adapted and so should we.

      https://www.nature.com/articles/srep23113

      Australia is a huge carbon sink when it rains.

      20

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        “teleconnection between IOD, SAM and ENSO,” ????

        Now that demands an explanation EG

        10

        • #
          el gordo

          At the RC we need to point out that natural variables rule and there are regular phase changes from being too wet and then too dry, before it returns to wet. From that paper they suggest the strong la Nina 2010-11 was a phase change.

          ‘The lagged, negative correlation between ENSO and IOD results in the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO), by which a strong Indian monsoon leads to a strong Australian monsoon and is then followed by a weak Indian monsoon.

          ‘The time lag is of crucial importance for establishing the oscillation, which arises from several feedback mechanisms (e.g., evaporation-wind feedback, SST-monsoon feedback, monsoon circulation-ocean thermocline variations).

          ‘However, the TBO can be broken in the austral autumn, when Indian Ocean SSTs are altered by other influences (e.g., AMOC). As a consequence, sudden reversals in the climate system can lead to strong precipitation anomalies, such as those which occurred during 2009, a very dry year, when the correlation pattern between climate modes and precipitation changed phase.

          ‘After the TBO was broken during the austral autumn of 2009, a new phase was established by which heavy precipitation anomalies were sustained in central Australia during the period January 2010–March 2011.’

          20

  • #
    Ross

    A question for the farmers on here. After such a prolonged drought in many areas , when the heavy rains arrive how big an issue is the loss of top soil, ie what happens to overall soil quality?

    30

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day Ross,
      I’ve baulked at the “heavy” rain. Hasn’t happened here, and isn’t forecast. I’ve had some of the light stuff which has given some greening! but little growth. No paddock run off into my dams. So if I were to now get some heavy rain? Anything could happen, depending on how heavy heavy was. About 20 years ago I had about 90mms in 45 minutes. That filled my dams, ripped the guts out of our laneway, damaged fences and caused some erosion heads to advance, but not much damage to paddocks(!).
      But I think that storm came after a reasonable spring so the paddock grasses were fairly happy. This time??
      Cheers
      Dave B

      60

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      If paddocks have been eaten down to bugger all left
      Then a big rain will wash soil away !
      That’s why some farmer put their stock in a sacrifice paddock during a drought
      And feed them in that paddock for the period.
      Ideally light rains at the start, to get the grass growing after a drought is best
      Once the grass has it’s roots down and growing
      Then heavy rain can come without problems.

      60

    • #
      Brian

      Topsoil blows away in a drought. While the dustfall this year has given rise to a lot of dusting and cleaning indoors and vehicles, outdoors I look on it as paddock relocation, increasing my topsoil. As Bill points out, after a dry period we need some very gentle rain to slowly penetrate and wet down the dry dust and crust. This reduces the damage done by runoff.

      60

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Briann Sacrificing one small paddock
        Spares the wider area from being down completely
        And saves the top soil being blown away as dust.
        Of course that sacrificed paddock needs restoring afterwards
        ( Harrowing & reseeding )

        20

    • #
      shannon

      New prospective Ross…..
      Family farm Mid North Coast NSW……
      After a prolong drought like we just experienced ….rains come, and more times than not..don’t stop until we end up with mod/major flooding….
      Farmers inland or “in the hills” lose top soil into creeks/rivers…
      Downstream, water covers low lying farms and properties….resulting in a layer of silt that is really beneficial for the coastal/river plains, farmers.
      Fertile paddocks…great growing season…
      What one person loses …another gains !

      20

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Friends farm years ago had a massive rain system fill every dam on the place after a few lean years , rain washed dried animal dung into three dams along with other debris and had to be drained .
        Don’t remember much damage from erosion though .

        10

  • #
    pat

    a very ABC report:

    8 Feb: ABC: Latrobe River earmarked as water source in plan to turn coal mines into lakes
    ABC Gippsland By Jarrod Whittaker
    Combined, the three open-cut coal mines in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley are more than four times the size of Sydney Harbour.
    The State Government is assessing whether they will all be turned into lakes when they close, which is due to occur by the middle of the century…

    Filling them will take decades…
    The Yallourn mine, which is due to close in 2032, will need 725GL and take 20 to 25 years to fill, while the Loy Yang mine (closure in 2048) has a capacity of 1,420GL and will take 25 to 30 years to fill…

    The Latrobe River is drying
    The state’s peak environment group, Environment Victoria, is concerned about the impact filling the mines will have on the river system…
    Environment Victoria community organiser Laura Melville said she was concerned about the availability of water in the future.
    “I think we’ve already seen the impacts of not having that much water in the Latrobe River system on the Gippsland Lakes and increased salinity in the lakes,” she said…
    According to the timelines contained in the report, the Loy Yang mine would be filled sometime between 2073 and 2078…

    Jessica Reeves from Federation University said the Government’s report was good but would need to “be constantly monitored and evaluated” as circumstances changed.
    “As we know, this season has been a very different season to previous ones in terms of climate, and we don’t have certainty of the climate going forward,” Dr Reeves said…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-08/plan-to-turn-victorias-coal-mines-into-lakes/11942972

    30

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      If Gippsland gets a couple of East coast lows
      They could well fill an a much shorter timeframe !
      The main problem is that the other big river in the Latrobe Valley is the Thompson river.
      And it has a huge dam on it sending water by tunnel to Melbourne.

      10

    • #
      Serp

      The criminality of the “plan to turn coal mines into lakes” should be obvious to anyone with a sense of what constitutes the national interest; but that’s our ABC innit…

      10

  • #
    RickWill

    I forecast there would be floods after the fires when the fires were at their peak.

    All this good rain means next fire season will be a big one despite the area burnt this season.

    I learnt about droughts and flooding rain in grade 4 in primary school:

    I love a sunburnt country,
    A land of sweeping plains,
    Of ragged mountain ranges,
    Of droughts and flooding rains.
    I love her far horizons,
    I love her jewel-sea,
    Her beauty and her terror
    The wide brown land for me!

    The way the ABC report droughts, fires and floods leads me to believe that ‘My Country’ is no longer in the school curriculum.

    80

    • #
      Ursus Augustus

      Of course not. Its been replaced by workshops by visiting experts on the topics Gender Identity, Catastrophic Climate Change and The Chemistry of CO2.

      60

    • #
      Ursus Augustus

      PS

      I love a sun safe country
      Slip Slop slapped into conformity
      Of endless on line shopping
      of Macca’s and of course Aldi
      I love her gadget adoption
      but want faster connectivity
      Burning coal is such an error
      Its renewables for me!

      50

    • #
      shannon

      There’s NOTHING Australian left in the curriculum……!!

      20

    • #
      Tides of Mudgee

      I love a windmill country
      A land of solar panes,
      Of buggered power stations,
      Of doubts and bloody high electricity bills.

      50

  • #

    Drought … Oh, that’s so Passee … Now Torrential Rain and Floods are the new Climate Change and Global Warming …
    “A land of sweeping plains,
    Of ragged mountain ranges,
    Of droughts and flooding rains.”

    40

  • #
    Robber

    “We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan, “Before the year is out.”
    “It’s keepin’ dry, no doubt.”
    In God’s good time down came the rain.
    And laughing eyes beheld the wheat.
    “There’ll be bush-fires for sure, me man, there will, without a doubt;
    We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan, “Before the year is out.”
    Published in 1921

    60

  • #
    Another Ian

    O/T

    “Friday Funny: Manntastic claims require Manntastic evidence”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/07/friday-funny-manntastic-claims-require-manntastic-evidence/

    Malcolm Roberts in parliament

    40

  • #
    Robber

    BoM hedges its bets: “The likelihood of a wetter or drier than average autumn (March to May) is roughly equal for much of Australia. However, parts of the northern Murray-Darling Basin have a slightly increased chance of being drier than average.” Issued Feb 6.
    BoM appears to quickly delete its prior forecasts, but others report: BOM latest climate outlook. It spans December 2019–March 2020, and includes all of the usual terms we’ve all become accustomed to hearing: warm, dry, temperatures above average and rainfall below usual levels.

    70

  • #
    Ursus Augustus

    It seems pretty clear to me that Tim Flannery has been making his doom and gloom ‘it will never rain again’, ‘perpetual drought’ and ‘we’ll all be burned alive in the bonfires of the coal industry’s vanity’ etc predictions again just off the record.

    Sorry Tim but Gaia hears everything pal. You and you fellow travellers really should just shut up. You know zip it.

    50

  • #
    pat

    33m50s to 35m: weather predictors. when rain will come. I know everyone is saying BoM said it’s going to rain here, there, etc. all I can say is I sat through a meeting of scientists from BoM early last year & they told me two things – they told a group that was there – that there would be a MAJOR WEATHER EVENT in late Jan/Feb 2020 and they repeated that, and then they said the drought was not likely to break until June or July.
    well, so far, they are 100% right, so I’m sticking with them. they reckoned it was going to rain now, and we are getting the rains now, and no-one else really predicted it was going to happen.

    AUDIO: 1h04m54s: 8 Feb: 2GB: The Garden Clinic
    https://www.2gb.com/podcast/the-garden-clinic-full-show-saturday-8th-february-2020/

    40

  • #
    pat

    5 Dec 2019: BoM: Climate outlook for January to April
    Drier than average January to March 2020 likely for eastern Australia, but wetter for parts of Western Australia.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20191205-outlook.shtml

    11 Dec: MacroBusiness: No end for drought as Sydney disappears into smoke
    By David Llewellyn-Smith
    (David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super)
    No relief in sight, at The Australian (LINK behind paywall)

    (excerpts) There will be no relief for drought-ravaged regions over the summer, with Bureau of Meteorology officials telling a meeting of state and federal ministers there would be no significant rain until at least April.
    The ministers gathered in Moree, in NSW’s northwest, to discuss the best strategies to combat the enduring drought…” END

    Let them eat ash.
    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/12/no-end-for-drought-as-sydney-disappears-into-smoke/

    11 Dec 2019: Daily Mail: No rain until MAY: Forecasters warn that there will be no significant rainfall for six months as experts warn of worst bushfire season ever
    •Australia is set to swelter for another six months before first significant rainfall
    •Bureau of Meteorology warning comes as NSW battles through severe drought
    •State’s agricultural minister said drought-breaking rain not expected until May
    •Queensland and Victoria also looking ‘very lean for rain’, according to briefing
    By Charlie Coë
    The Bureau of Meteorology made the stark warning for Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales at a meeting of state and federal ministers in the regional NSW town of Moree on Tuesday.
    NSW is battling through one of its worst ever droughts, but the state’s agricultural minister Adam Marshall said drought-breaking levels of rain were not expected until April or May 2020 at the earliest.

    ‘NSW, Queensland and Victoria are looking very lean for rain and below average rainfall through summer and heading into next winter,’ Mr Marshall told The Australian.
    ‘The outlook is nothing for NSW anywhere near drought-breaking until April-May next year.’
    Talks at the meeting on Tuesday, which were partly based on a BoM briefing, also involved discussions about drought assistance in some of Australia’s worst-affected areas…

    Greg Mullins, who was Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner from 2003 to 2017, said Sydney will likely to experience devastation greater than 1994, when hundreds of suburban homes were lost…
    ‘The worst is to come because it’s going to get hotter and drier and there’s no significant rain in the outlooks,’ Mr Mullins told AAP.
    ‘We’ve got massive fires that are too big to put out without rain. They are going to get bigger and they are going to come into Sydney suburbs, the South Coast, the Central Coast.’…
    ‘Formerly all of our big losses have been places like the Blue Mountains, Sutherland, Warringah and Lane Cove,’ he warned…
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7778895/Australian-forecasters-warn-no-significant-rainfall-six-months.html

    10 Dec: Daily Mail: Water restrictions are set to get even WORSE in Sydney – here’s what it means for you
    By Kylie Stevens
    The Bureau of Meteorology has predicted a hot summer, with no forecast for significant rain…

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      RickWill

      The BoM cannot get forecasts right two months ahead – dead opposite of their prediction. What is the likelihood that their prediction 80 years out is DEAD WRONG.

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        pat

        31 Jan: PerthNow: AdelaideAdvertiser: South Australian weather: Rare summer deluge of rain forecast Friday
        Steve Rice
        After scorching heat, SA can expect a rare deluge today that will continue into Saturday…
        Bureau of Meteorology state manager John Nairn said it was fairly unusual to see such heavy rain in summer. He said tropical moisture from the monsoon was being pushed south…
        https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/sa/south-australian-weather-rare-summer-deluge-of-rain-forecast-friday-ng-aed2365162ad8a13b3d8fb4c016f193a

        25 Oct 2019: ABC: BOM outlook: Low chance of drought recovery for eastern Australia in coming months
        ABC Weather By Kate Doyle
        Despite heavy rain lashing parts of the country in recent weeks the big dry is far from over — and according to the Bureau of Meteorology, the hard times are set to continue…
        According to the latest outlook there is a low chance of recovery for drought affected areas in the coming months, and the financial ramifications are expected to take some time to play out.
        Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Blair Trewin said the heaviest rain had mostly fallen in places less severely afflicted by the drought…
        What’s to come?
        The Bureau’s outlook for the next three months does not forecast any cool or wet changes
        “For rainfall, the outlook over many parts of the country is leaning [towards] dry, but perhaps not quite as dry as in some recent months,” Dr Trewin said…
        The hot and dry conditions are expected in part because of the continued cool temperatures in the Indian Ocean and a looming El Nino event in the Pacific…

        18 Dec 2019: ABC: Climate change slashes more than $1 billion from farm production value over past 20 years: ABARES
        ABC Rural By Kath Sullivan
        It found changes in climate since 2000, had reduced the average broadacre farmer’s profits by 22 per cent, or about $18,600 per year.
        For cropping farmers — considered the most heavily exposed to climate variability — the annual farm profits fell by 35 per cent, or $70,900.
        “We knew it was big, but we didn’t have a precise number before and this model and method allows us to get at that,” report co-author Steve Hatfield-Dodds said.
        Dr Hatfield-Dodds said the modelling relied on 30 years of data, which distinguished the impact of price, climate variability and other factors on Australian farms.
        That was modelled with reporting by the Bureau of Meteorology.
        “Essentially, there’s been a shift in climate in the last past 20 years, where the climate has become noticeably hotter and drier,” he said.
        “Dry years are more frequent since the year 2000 … temperatures have gone up by about 1 degree since 1950.”…

        the Al Gore effect for theirABC in Stanthorpe!

        6 Feb: ABC: Drought-affected Stanthorpe welcomes rain, but water supply remains a problem
        The Drum By Elly Duncan
        It’s an unusual sight: rain is falling in Stanthorpe. Unusual, because the Queensland town has spent a significant period of time battling drought.
        It’s gone beyond ‘day zero’: the point where a town effectively runs out of water. The local Storm King Dam has been empty for weeks.
        Rain fell on Thursday and even more is expected on Friday. In fact, showers are forecast all the way through until early next week…

        But locals and leaders have issued a warning: it may look more lush, but the ‘green drought’ is far from over.
        ‘One downpour doesn’t break a drought’
        As part of a ‘Future of Water’ special episode, The Drum was on site in Stanthorpe to get a sense of what life without water is actually like, including the mental health impacts of living under intense water restrictions, and the efforts of local and state governments to keep the town supplied.
        As recording gets underway, the rain starts bucketing down…

        Areas of Stanthorpe are green with grass — thanks, in part, to rainfall from earlier this year…
        For Councillor Dobie, it’s just a year of average rain.
        “The rain is welcome, it’s freezing cold — but this isn’t the end of our drought, no,” he said…
        Catch the full episode of The Drum: The Future of Water here.
        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-06/stanthorpe-drought-rainfall-water-supply/11936172

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          What Summer deluge ?
          Here at Mt Barker SA ( 120 meters from the BOM weather station )
          Just ONE mml of rain in my gauge since last Tuesday
          Up to a moment ago.
          We did hear some thunder yesterday tho’.
          Does that count ?

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      • #
        el gordo

        BoM’s seasonal forecasts are usually wrong, but they are pretty good a week ahead.

        Would you like to make a guess for Autumn in south east Oz?

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      • #
        shannon

        The BOM cant get accurate forecasting 2 days ahead…
        Poking their head out a window, is just as accurate as reading “printouts” from computers.
        ( probably more so ):)

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    • #
      AndyG55

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiBW4yCS7TI

      7th Feb

      LOTS of rain coming (if BOM can be believed… LOL)

      Only a few days ahead though. ;-)

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        E G Do you realise that ‘Nullschool.net’ web site
        Is a dedicated “Global Warming mob ?
        It’s mostly used by surfers to find the best waves to surf!
        Tip from a son who surfs a lot !

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  • #
    Serge Wright

    My lesson in science from the Greens this summer !!!

    During the violent summer climate protests and demonstrations for Australia to close down our coal fired power stations and move to zero emissions, the Greens claimed that there is now no doubt these fires and drought are the “new norm”. The logic being that the extra % of CO2 added by Australia caused a climate tipping point and a shift to permanent drought.

    However, with the heavy rains now falling we must realise we were wrong. These heavy rains must be the real climate change and rain will now be the new norm instead. Obviously we just needed to add a bit more CO2 to reverse out the drought and usher the new and prosperous wet future.

    Also, during this extended Green education session over the summer, I also learned that CO2 molecules are not equal and that climate change only comes from Australia’s CO2. Which is of course why the Greens never protest outside the Chinese embassy regarding their 30% emissions, as these must be the good CO2 molecules. Instead, they only protest against Austraia bad “climate change causing” 1% emissions, caused by our coal fired power stations, which they protest must be closed down to prevent drought and fires. As the rains now fall, obviously due to a new wet CO2 induced climate change, I suddenly realise we should give thanks to the source of our new wet climate, our fleet of coal fired power stations, as these obviously added that extra bit of CO2 needed to cause the new wet climate change.

    I would therefore like to thank the Greens and their green “ABC” media for their climate eduction. Without this education I would not have realised that only CO2 from Australia’s coal can cause climate change and I would never have realised that the recent rains is therefore a sign of a new “good” climate change. Perhaps you can now arrange a protest to save our coal fired power stations so we can maintain the rain ?

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    Don B

    el gordo -

    “Modoki El Nino is forming and there is cooling in the southern Indian Ocean”

    And that will lead to, what?

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    • #
      el gordo

      A La Nina by year’s end.

      I would like your forecast, with the support of a hindcast.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Don the IOD was ‘positive’ for about 18 months
      Off the North West coast of Australia.
      That means cooler surface waters & lower evaporation rates.
      Droughts are always associated with this phenomenon.
      In the last month the IOD has turned ‘negative’
      Off the North West coast of Australia
      That means warmer surface waters & higher evaporation rates.
      Heavy wet seasons and floods are always associated in Australia
      With this ‘negative’ IOD.

      I suspect that the weather ‘gurus’ use such obscure terminology
      To mystify the rest of us !

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Frankly EG I suspect that the La Ninas
        Only have an impact on the coastal regions of Eastern Australia.
        On a continental wide scale, the state of the IOD is far more important.

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        • #
          el gordo

          Its the synchronicity of three oscillations which determine our wet and dry environment, this from the Cleverly et al paper upthread.

          ‘ … we demonstrate that the abnormally large fluctuations in precipitation experienced by Australia are not a result of any single climate mode but instead are due to periods of synchronisation amongst three climate modes: ENSO (equatorial Pacific Ocean), IOD (equatorial Indian Ocean) and SAM (Southern Ocean). This entirely novel finding has been speculated upon, but the method required to test this hypothesis has not been presented before now.’

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          • #
            Graeme No.3

            Try Sir Gilbert Walker a statistician trying to work out the fluctuations in the Indian Monsoon in the 1920′s and 30′s. He said there was a link between the monsoon variations and the el ñino. Also the SOI .

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          • #
            Bill In Oz

            EG the main driver i sunlight
            Evaporating water from the oceans
            This is very probably constant from year to year
            ( Unless and until the sun shines less ! )
            So in the atmosphere is roughly the same amount of moisture per year.
            The problem is predicting where that moisture will precipitate.
            That varies hugely from year to year.

            I have been thinking about the IOD & ENSO etc.
            ( Is there a similar thing in the Atlantic ? I think so )
            But imagine the earth say 20-30 million years ago
            At the time there would have been continuous equatorial ocean
            From the eastern shores of Africa
            All the way around the planet to the Western shores of Africa.
            Such arrangement of the continents & oceans,
            Because of the Earth’s rotation,
            Would have generated a powerful Equatorial ocean currents
            I wonder if Now we are living with broken up ‘echos’
            Of that former great equatorial ocean current
            Broken up by the movement of the
            South American & Australian continents Northwards

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  • #
    Al

    BOM forecasting accuracy?
    From their app:

    Yesterday Feb 7

    “Coffs Harbour rain forecast
    100 to 200 mm Possible rainfall
    100% Chance of any rain”

    This morning Feb 8

    “7:20 am, 8 Feb
    1.4mm since 9:00 am”

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    • #
      Al

      The daily weather chart shows 122.6 mm for Friday but I believe most of that fell on Thursday and Thursday night.
      Some probably after midnight.
      We, 30 km south received 70 mm to 5:00 pm Thursday and at least another 30 mm before midnight – 82 mm in gauge the next morning.
      The ABC online report from a Jane Golding from the BoM said Coffs received 250 mm.
      I’m confused.

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    • #

      The automatic gauging system has corrupted readings all over the shop. We can forget rainfall figures. They’re gone.

      Crazy, I know. Something as simple as how much rain fell in such-and-such a location is now unavailable. You’ll have a statistic available for it, but it will be wrong.

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    Furiously curious

    They say a picture’s worth 1000 words. I think this one could start a few conversations? Bringing it back to a human scale. Maybe Greta and climate scientists can detect a 0.05 degree temperature change. Not many others can. Deception in plain sight.

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/149157242@N05/49503394433/in/dateposted-public/

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    pat

    two biggies on ABC radio this morning … and probably on TV too, for all I know:

    8 Feb: ABC: These waters off Tasmania’s east coast are warming up to four times faster than global average
    by Phoebe Hosier
    These waters in eastern Tasmania are one of a handful of ocean “hotspots” that scientists say are warming at a faster rate than the global average.
    The “chronic” warming has wiped out 95 per cent of giant kelp forests, pushed fisheries to the brink, diseased much of the state’s oyster stocks and heralded the arrival of new, invasive species…
    “In December of 2015 the temperatures along here were about 14.5 degrees [Celsius], within two weeks, its hard to believe, it jumped to over 17 degrees,” (veteran diver Mick) Baron says…

    According to scientists from the CSIRO and the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), the sea surface temperature off Tasmania’s east coast is warming at a rate of 2.3C per century — equating to roughly four times the global average.
    This measurement is based on data collected daily since the 1940s from a buoy off Maria Island.
    Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agrees on the 2.3C increase, but says this amounts to just twice the global average.

    The discrepancy comes down to a disagreement over the Earth’s average ocean temperature due to the different variables being used to measure sea surface temperature; including different ocean depths, objectives, technology and time scales.
    But there is consensus Tasmania’s east coast is warming far more rapidly than the rest of the world…

    “The rate of change that we see now is still going to increase, even if we stopped all the pollution… the snowball effect is already there.”
    “So my grandchildren will never see what I saw,” (diver Baron) said, “it’s as simple as that.”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-08/tasmania-east-coast-warming-four-times-global-average/11889628

    don’t recall ABC radio mentioning the ***19.8 degrees in January, 1982:

    8 Feb: ABC: Antarctic region sees record high temperature of 18.3C amid rising concern over melting ice sheets
    by ABC/wires
    A research base in Antarctica has recorded its hottest day on record on the continent, logging a temperature of 18.3 degrees Celsius.
    The reading, recorded by Argentina’s national weather service at its Esperanza base, on the north-west Antarctic Peninsula near South America, topped the former record of 17.5 degrees tallied in March 2015…
    ***The record in the wider Antarctic region is 19.8 degrees in January, 1982…

    Scientists believe global warming has caused so much melting at the south pole that the giant ice sheet is now on course to disintegrate.
    This would see an eventual global sea level rise of at least three metres over centuries. Projected sea level rise from the Antarctic is forecast to be up to 15 metres by 2500…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-08/antarctica-records-temperature-of-18.3c-the-hottest-ever/11946092

    Wikipedia: Climate of Antarctica
    A higher temperature of 19.8 °C (67.6 °F) at Signy Research Station on 30 January 1982 is the record for the Antarctic region encompassing all land and ice south of 60° S…

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    • #
      pat

      ABC’s Tasmanian radio news item didn’t have the NOAA discrepancy either. just the most alarmist bits out of the lengthy article I posted.

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    • #
      WXcycles

      8 Feb: ABC: Antarctic region sees record high temperature of 18.3C amid rising concern over melting ice sheets
      by ABC/wires

      Anyone at the ABC that thinks icesheet melting is a problem is an absolute idiot.

      https://i.ibb.co/DkgZrvB/53-C-Antarctic-Summer-Temp-Screenshot-2020-02-08-Windy-as-forecasted-7.png

      Instead of the Antarctic icesheet getting warmer this Summer, after an initial late string warming it has instead been getting steadily colder ever since, it is now dropping towards -53 C even before Summer is over! And just look at the Antarctic peninsula! Does it look like it’s going to melt any century soon?

      ABC are once again proving to be the biggest bunch of good-for-nothing, time-wasting, money-wasting, ignorant insufferable clowns.

      If you want to encourage national hyper-stupidity just give the ABC a billion bucks so they can continue to promote sick lies to children and harm their outlook on life and civilization.

      Scum.

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Just love that last bit;

        “ABC are once again proving to be the biggest bunch of good-for-nothing, time-wasting, money-wasting, ignorant insufferable clowns.

        If you want to encourage national hyper-stupidity just give the ABC a billion bucks so they can continue to promote sick lies to children and harm their outlook on life and civilization.”

        I left out the last word in case it got me moderated.

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    • #
      WXcycles

      This is the crap ABC are talking about Pat, a tiny micro-blip at 18 C that lasts about 3 hours during one day within a Summer where the temp is usually about -1 to -3 most other days.

      https://i.ibb.co/8XgdYKs/18-C-micro-blip-Screenshot-2020-02-08-Windy-as-forecasted-7.png

      Laughable!

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      Bill In Oz

      Re East coast Tasmania…
      There is this statement is big letters “”As the atmosphere above the Pacific warms, that gyre speeds up, so it’s literally a spinning wind field that then strengthens the EAC and physically pushes it further and stronger down our coast,” Pecl says. ”

      Right there is a major problem ! How does she know that the air above the Pacific is warming ? Are there huge numbers of weather stations in the pacific ocean to measure this increase ? NO .Some in New Zealand & a few scattered on pacific islands & ..just a few ship thermometers. and this ocean covers about 30% of the world’s surface !

      Sooooo On the basis of this ASSUMPTION they then spin out a story of disaster !

      OK the EAC is pushing further South to Tasmania. Why don’t these dumbnuts do some research to establish why that is happening.

      That’s Science !

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      • #
        AndyG55

        “How does she know that the air above the Pacific is warming ?”

        Air above southern oceans is best measure by satellites.

        Here is UAH Southern Oceans

        As you can see, basically no warming except from El Nino events

        A step up at 1998, and a bulge as the current El Nino hangs about.

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  • #
    Tides of Mudgee

    This may have been posted before, but worth a second read:

    Australia’s Hottest Day on Record 1828
    Not 2019, BUT 1828 at a blistering 53.9 °C
    Back before man-made climate change was frying Australia, when CO2 was around 300ppm, the continent savoured an ideal pre-industrial climate… RIGHT?
    This is the kind of climate we are spending $10bn per annum to get back to… Right again?
    We are told today’s climate has more records and more extremes than times gone by, but the few records we have from the early 1800s are eye-popping.
    Things were not just hotter, but so wildly hot it burst thermometers.
    The earliest temperature records we have show that Australia was a land of shocking heatwaves and droughts, except for when it was bitterly cold or raging in flood.
    In other words, nothing has changed, except possibly things might not be quite so hot now!
    Silliggy (Lance Pidgeon) has been researching records from early explorers and from newspapers.
    What he’s uncovered is fascinating! It’s as if history is being erased!
    For all that we hear about recent record-breaking climate extremes, records that are equally extreme, and sometimes even more so, are ignored.
    In January 1896 a savage blast “like a furnace” stretched across Australia from east to west and lasted for weeks.
    The death toll reached 437 people in the eastern states.
    Newspaper reports showed that in Bourke the heat approached 120°F (48.9°C) on three days.
    The maximum at or above 102 degrees F (38.9°C) for 24 days straight!
    Use the several links below to read the news reports at the time for yourself ..
    1. By Tuesday Jan 14, people were reported falling dead in the streets.
    2. Unable to sleep, people in Brewarrina walked the streets at night for hours, thermometers recorded 109F at midnight.
    3. Overnight, the temperature did not fall below 103°F.
    4. On Jan 18 in Wilcannia, five deaths were recorded in one day, the hospitals were overcrowded and reports said that “more deaths are hourly expected”.
    5. By January 24, in Bourke, many businesses had shut down (almost everything bar the hotels).
    6. Panic stricken Australians were fleeing to the hills in climate refugee trains.
    As reported at the time, the government felt the situation was so serious that to save lives and ease the suffering of its citizens they added cheaper train services.
    What I found most interesting about this was the skill, dedication and length of meteorological data taken in the 1800s. When our climate is “the most important moral challenge” why is it there is so little interest in our longest and oldest data?
    Who knew that one of the most meticulous and detailed temperature records in the world from the 1800s comes from Adelaide, largely thanks to Sir Charles Todd.
    The West Terrace site in Adelaide was one of the best in the world at the time, and provides accurate historic temperatures from “Australia’s first permanent weather bureau at Adelaide in 1856″.
    Rainfall records even appear to go as far back as 1839. Lance Pidgeon went delving into the National Archives and was surprised at what he found.
    The media are in overdrive, making out that “the extreme heat is the new normal” in Australia.
    You can’t blame those high records on man-made global warming!

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  • #
    pat

    huh?

    6 Feb: SanDiegoUnionTribune: The moral voter: Bishop offers guidance to faithful Catholic voters
    Abandoning the Paris Climate Accords, the bishop said, “is a far greater moral evil” than federal health centers providing contraceptive devices
    By Peter Rowe
    SAN DIEGO — With California’s presidential primaries less than a month away, what are voters’ moral responsibilities?
    Catholics, insisted Bishop Robert W. McElroy, head of the Roman Catholic Diocese of San Diego, cannot be single-issue voters, focused exclusively on abortion, say, or ***climate change, immigration, religious liberty or poverty…

    McElroy made these comments during a public lecture Thursday on the University of San Diego campus…
    The bishop blasted the Democratic Party’s nearly uniform support of abortion rights, then criticized “the current administration” for its resistance to policies meant to fight climate change.
    Those two hot-button issues, abortion and climate change, were compared several times in the speech…

    ***Abortion annually results in the deaths of “more than 750,000 unborn children,” the bishop said, yet “the long-term death toll from unchecked climate change is larger and threatens the very future of humanity.”
    And while he called contraception “intrinsically evil … it is a far greater moral evil for our country to abandon the Paris Climate Accord than to provide contraceptives in federal health centers.”
    Both abortion and climate change are “core life issues in the Catholic church,” McElroy…
    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/religion/story/2020-02-06/bishop-outlines-guide-to-faithful-catholic-voting-mcelroy

    7 Feb: MontereyHerald: Less than a third of California students met or exceeded standards on new science test
    32 percent of 5th-graders, 31 percent of 8th-graders and 28 percent of high school students met or exceeded standards
    By Sydney Johnson
    At a time when California is placing a greater emphasis on science education, most students did not score at a proficient level on the state’s new science test, with scores especially low among several student groups.
    The results of the test were released this week. They represent the first scores on the California Science Test, a new test developed by the California Department of Education, to measure progress on the Next Generation Science Standards adopted by California in 2013…

    “Getting it right takes time and funding,” said Shawna Metcalf, president of the California Science Teachers Association. “The California Next Generation Science Standards were adopted six years ago without being properly funded by the state.”…

    Likewise, the new computer-based science test differs dramatically from the previous science test. In addition to new content in areas such as ***climate change, students are asked on the new test to analyze data and explain their reasoning…
    https://www.montereyherald.com/2020/02/07/less-than-a-third-of-california-students-met-or-exceeded-standards-on-new-science-test/

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    pat

    can’t resist:

    7 Feb: Sioux City Journal: Marcus man sentenced to prison for stealing copper from wind turbines
    by Nick Hytrek
    CHEROKEE, Iowa — A Marcus, Iowa, man was sentenced Monday to 10 years in prison for stealing copper from wind turbine sites around Marcus and burglarizing several businesses.
    Andrew Bock, 35, pleaded guilty in Cherokee County District Court to first-degree criminal mischief, third-degree burglary and third-offense possession of a controlled substance.
    Bock was charged with stealing copper and materials valued at $7,390 from nine wind turbine sites on Oct. 12 or Oct. 13. He was accused of causing $11,080 in damage to the wind turbine sites…

    Wiley Spencer, 23, of Sioux City, has pleaded not guilty in Cherokee County to selling the copper at Compressed Steel in Sioux City in an attempt to conceal Bock’s identity.
    https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/marcus-man-sentenced-to-prison-for-stealing-copper-from-wind/article_e8f52830-2e9f-5255-8461-e28d69cbd73c.html

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    pat

    this is so extraordinary, I have to post it. btw most Fox youtubes I’ve checked this week have been reduced to 1 second, as used to happen a while ago, so dont’ know how long this will stay up. in the US, the Sunday shows used to be considered important!

    13m20s to 15m38s: Stephanie Grisham, White House communications director with Sean Hannity. great week for the President, but says no WH official will be on the Sunday TV shows. said none were invited.

    says senior WH officials were offered to all the shows, but they were turned down, ***including by Fox News.
    says only Fox Business will have a White House official on Sunday.

    Sean says if he had a Sunday show, he’d have someone on etc.

    Youtube: 35m15s: Sean Hannity 2/7/20 – Fox News
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yfobh27Jc7s

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      pat

      noticed the Hannity video is not complete. most other videos I just checked to find the following have been reduced to 1second. catch this while you can:

      1h06m55s to 1h12m13s: Jeffrey Lord and Joe Concha: Liberal media in crisis as Trump racks up victory after victory. Concha reels off all the figures to support how well Trump is doing, despite the media lies:

      Youtube: 1h20m50s: Sean Hannity 2/7/20 – Fox News
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QppaWKh0ED8

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    pat

    who believes a word of this?

    7 Feb: Business Green: Polling: Environmental concern rises amid robust support for renewables
    by Business Green staff
    YouGov poll indicates the environment is now the third top issue among voters behind health and Brexit
    Public concern for the environment appears to still be on the rise, with the latest polling indicating green issues are currently more important than the economy to voters.

    A ***YouGov poll commissioned by The Times asked voters to name their top three most important issues facing the country, with environment coming in as the third top choice among voters, surging from 10th position in the same poll two years ago.
    Among those polled, 28 per cent cited the environment as one of their top three issues facing the UK, while 44 per cent named health, and 43 per cent pointed to Brexit, marking the first time since 2016 the UK’s exit from the EU has not been the top issue of concern for voters, YouGov said.

    Environment is now of greater importance among voters than the economy, which was cited by 27 per cent of those polled, and crime, which was among the top issued named by 26 per cent of respondents, the survey results released on Wednesday show.

    It came as the government released its latest Public Attitudes Tracker survey (LINK) results yesterday covering a range of energy and clean growth issues. The results showed public support for renewable energy technologies remains overwhelmingly positive, with backing from 83 per cent of the 4,200 UK adults questioned.
    Levels of support for renewables in the regular public attitudes surveys have remained strong since the question was first asked in 2012, ranging from between 74 per cent and 85 per cent…

    Juliet Davenport, CEO and founder of renewable electricity supplier Good Energy, said the latest poll results demonstrated growing support among the public for a greener economy.
    “The huge support for renewables in this poll shows the public gets climate change, and is way ahead of politicians,” she said. “It couldn’t be clearer that people want us to get on with building a zero-carbon Britain. As the UK gears up to host the world’s largest climate talks, the government should lead by example and make this year’s UN summit the boldest on record.”
    https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4010249/polling-environmental-concern-rises-amid-robust-support-renewables

    behind paywall – excerpts found:

    7 Feb: UK Times: Climate change concern is rising but the real tough choices lie ahead
    by Ben Page, Helen Lamb
    Climate emergency was “word of the year” in 2019. In our latest survey, 75 per cent of Britons say they are concerned about harm to the environment, with 78 per cent saying we are heading for disaster…

    Spontaneous concern is rising, propelled by Greta Thunberg and Sir David Attenborough, but it has a long way to go before it cuts through, given the tough choices involved in hitting our net zero targets in 2050. The climate tends to be a much more middle-class concern than a working-class one…

    Replacing all the gas-fired boilers in Britain will be quite a challenge. About 220 homes a week are becoming carbon neutral. To hit government targets that needs to be many thousands a week. So, for now, invest in plumbing companies and be ready for many tougher choices.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/climate-change-concern-is-rising-but-the-real-tough-choices-lie-ahead-7sl75sml5

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    pat

    sure the public loves these never-ending costs…which will be recurring every couple of decades!

    6 Feb: ClimateNewsNetwork: Europe fails to keep up on solar power
    by Paul Brown
    Europe needs new factories to harness solar power, with a huge effort to install the panels they’ll make, for the world to avoid catastrophic warming.
    Europe is falling well behind in the race to install enough solar power to keep the rise in global temperatures below dangerous levels, and to reach its own renewable energy targets. But it’s not impossible.

    Once a world leader in the technology and manufacture of solar panels, Europe now lags far behind China and other Asian countries. It faces shortages of supplies and disruption to them, according to the annual PV status report of the European Commission’s Science Hub (LINK).

    The report says the installation rate of panels has to increase “drastically” − more than five times by 2025, and double that again if Europe is to convert to electric cars and fuels like hydrogen…

    The report’s author, Arnulf Jäger-Waldau, added: “Although (last year) the new installed capacity increased worldwide by 7% and solar power attracted the largest share of new investments in renewable energies for the ninth year in a row, a much more rapid increase in the installation rate is needed to decarbonise the power sector by 2050”.

    Current capacity equips the EU to provide just under 5% of its electricity demand from solar PV. There was an installed capacity of 117 GW at the end of 2018, and in 2019 the EU lost further ground in the worldwide market…
    The report says the main barriers to the changes needed include regulatory frameworks and the limitations of the existing electricity transmission and distribution systems
    https://climatenewsnetwork.net/europe-fails-to-keep-up-on-solar-power/

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    pat

    how wonderful!

    4 Feb: 24housingUK: Decarbonising home heating ‘biggest challenge’ to UK energy
    Government plans to publish Low Carbon Heat Roadmap later this year, though Ofgem says “technological uncertainty” means questions will remain
    by Bill Tanner
    Decarbonising home heating, currently responsible for around 18% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions, is arguably the biggest challenge the energy sector faces over the coming decades, a new report has said.

    The Ofgem decarbonisation action plan pitches electric heat pumps and the replacing of natural gas with hydrogen as two alternatives for future home heating – while acknowledging uncertainty as to their relative roles…

    Already, government is considering a proposal from the heating industry to set a date by which all boilers on sale would be “hydrogen ready” for conversion from natural gas.
    But the Ofgem report recommends “sensible low regrets” actions that can be taken now to ensure the UK is set up for the “huge task” of heat decarbonisation…

    Ofgem expects that heat pumps will be needed to heat many homes, regardless of the future of hydrogen, with related research saying a switch to low carbon heating will require annual investment by 2050 of around £15-20bn (in 2019 money) up from just £100m in 2018.
    https://www.24housing.co.uk/news/decarbonising-home-heating-the-biggest-challenge-to-uk-energy/

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    pat

    5 Feb: CNBC: Pete Buttigieg hires former Goldman Sachs executive as national policy director
    by Tucker Higgins
    Democratic presidential contender Pete Buttigieg has hired a former Goldman Sachs vice president and Google executive to run his policy shop, his campaign announced Thursday.
    Sonal Shah, now executive director of the Beeck Center for Social Impact and Innovation at Georgetown University, will be the campaign’s national policy director…

    In a statement, Buttigieg’s national press secretary, Chris Meagher, said that while at Goldman, Shah “wasn’t involved in any deals nor did she benefit from any deals.”
    “She developed and managed Goldman Sachs’ environmental strategy. She trained bankers to ask environmental questions, managed the grants to non-profits, and worked with their real estate team on how to build more green buildings,” he said…

    At Google, Meagher said, she was “only involved in the philanthropy side of Google, not the company side. At the time she worked there, Google.org had a separate team that was focused on grants and social impact.”

    The campaign emphasized Shah’s time working as deputy assistant to the president and as director of the White House Office of Social Innovation and Civic Participation during the Obama administration.
    “She worked at the Obama White House after the financial crisis. She doesn’t advocate for companies — she cares about having the greatest social impact for people, and finding new solutions to tough challenges that require the public, private, and social sectors to work together to find them,” Meagher said. “That’s why she is teaching at Georgetown after leaving the White House.”

    At Georgetown, Shah was a professor and the founder of the Beeck Center for Social Impact and Innovation. That center was founded with a $10 million donation from investor Alberto Beeck, a former Lehman Brothers investment banker who is now focused on the mining, hotels, wealth management, telecom and tech sectors, according to an online biography.
    “On Georgetown – the money was given to Georgetown. She was hired by Georgetown. The center equips students with tools and approaches to further the common good,” Meagher said…

    Also Thursday, the campaign announced the hiring of Jess O’Connell, former CEO of the Democratic National Committee, to become a senior advisor.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/buttigieg-hires-former-goldman-sachs-executive-as-policy-director.html

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      Serp

      Why are they calling him “butty judge”?

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      • #
        hatband

        That’s the correct pronunciation of the name.

        Will be interesting to see how Trump pronounces it in the debates.

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          Graeme Bird

          Butty Judge is really close. I think its pronounced closer to Peter Boody-jeedge. It doesn’t matter how you say it, it never sounds entirely wholesome. From Iowa onwards he will be known as Cheater Butt-gig. Because he went along with the cheating meant to be in his favour, or more particularly to the disfavour of Bernie Sanders. Who was dudded by the anti-Democratic, Democratic elite four years ago.

          A series of Trump/Sanders debates would have been exceptionally beneficial for the banana republic four years ago. Whether we are socialists or anti-socialists we ought to recognise a good and decent man when we see him. The Americans are in no position any more to judge the fairness of other peoples elections since their own elections can never pass some minimum standard. Trump is actually the more legitimate candidate, at least in his first term, then any candidate in a very long time. Because the cheaters did everything they could to rig the election against him and they still failed. Jill Stein ( who I see as a decent person) assumed the opposite, and went for these recounts and they always turned out to be in Trumps favour.

          Usually the rebellious statisticians tell us that the cheating is done to favour the Republicans. But not last time. Outrageous cheating to favour Hillary. But on the other hand the real manipulation is performed in the primaries, and with financing. For example John McCain got this huge burst of financing when all the other Republicans were tapped out, propelling him to the front of the race. Everyone was sick of him and it was very clear that he was chosen to lose. That he was the candidate meant to lose to Obama.

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    pat

    novel length:

    3 Jan 2020: ABC Story Lab: See how global warming has changed the world since your childhood
    By Tim Leslie, Joshua Byrd, and Nathan Hoad
    So it’s hotter, and there’s a greater risk of bushfires, but has Australia been getting drier? I mean, there were droughts when you were a kid, right? Well Australia hasn’t been getting drier overall, but where the rain is falling is changing and that is already having a big impact.
    In the north of the country over summer, we’re actually getting more rain, but in the south where most Australians live — and where the majority of our food is produced — the country is drying out…
    And the way the rain falls is changing. Because the atmosphere can hold more water in warmer temperatures, when it does rain we’re getting more high-intensity, extreme rain events — the ones that are associated with flash flooding. Every degree of warming creates a 7 per cent increase in the intensity of those rain events.
    So just in your lifetime you can already see a change in how the weather in Australia works. This is the reality of climate change — all the ingredients that are required for natural disasters start to collide with increasing regularity…

    This is part of a series from the ABC News Story Lab on climate change. Our next piece looks at what we could do with the money Australians have said they’re willing to pay to stop climate change.

    This piece has been made with the assistance of the Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.
    The climate stripes are inspired by the work of climate scientist Professor Ed Hawkins. Future warming stripes are the ensemble mean of a range (between 19 and 39 models) of CMIP5 Global Climate Models models retrieved using the KNMI Climate Explorer. One run was used for each climate model.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-06/how-climate-change-has-impacted-your-life/11766018

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    pat

    Andrew Bolt played audio of Fran Kelly reading text/email from listener on RN Breakfast this week, telling ABC to stop the climate alarmism and that it was not taxpayer-funded ABC’s job to be advocates for CAGW, or words to that effect.
    wish I knew precisely which program/segment it was on, in case it is available on the Breakfast website.
    however, at every turn, it seems the public shoot down the ABC’s attempts to create panic:

    7 Feb: ABC: From facing fires to expecting flooding, these farmers are stocking up for isolation as the rain continues
    ABC Mid North Coast By Michael Cavanagh and Kerrin Thomas
    Just a few months ago, Max and Sue Brenton’s property was being threatened by fire — now they are preparing for a fortnight of isolation, as rising creeks and causeways cut off their connections to the outside world…
    “We’d survive,” Mr Brenton said.
    “We got some bread and milk and petrol for the generator, we have everything you would want,” the 82-year-old farmer noted calmly.
    “We got some powdered milk, it’ll keep for a long time.
    “A lot of vegies, and meat hopping round the paddock — I’ve eaten kangaroo before and they’re not bad tucker as long as you cook them right.”
    The good rain over the past fortnight also means the vegetable garden is thriving.
    “We grew a crop of potatoes and have plenty of spuds in the shed, pumpkins and free-range chooks, a milking cow, we’ve got the works,” he said…

    And it wasn’t just food he stocked up on when he went into town.
    “I got plenty of books this morning from the library.”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/nsw-mid-north-coast-farmers-from-fire-to-flood/11944706

    7 Feb: ABC: Bushfire-ravaged land floods in Mid North Coast deluge, bringing hope to residents of Glenreagh
    By Paige Cockburn and Claudia Jambor
    It’s hard to imagine a more extreme contrast — bushland in the Clarence Valley that was burnt to a blackened crisp just months ago is now inundated with floodwaters…
    It’s also a reminder of Mother Nature’s ‘all or nothing’ ethos — not long ago local dams are cracked dry, now the nearby Orara River is flooding.

    “I guess people around here just take as it comes,” (owner of the Glenreagh store, Leanne) Bernard said……
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/glenreagh-transformation-from-fire-to-floods/11944182

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    pat

    7 Feb: ABC: Paradise Dam amendments rushed through Queensland Parliament sparking outrage
    ABC Wide Bay By Nicole Hegarty
    Work to reduce the height of the spillway at Australia’s second-newest dam will begin next month after the Queensland Government controversially rushed a package of amendments through Parliament this week.
    The Government and dam operator Sunwater announced last September, 105,000 megalitres — the equivalent of 32,000 Olympic swimming pools — of water would be released from Paradise Dam near Bundaberg to reduce it to 42 per cent capacity for safety reasons.
    Water releases finished in early December, with plans to permanently reduce the height of the dam’s spillway ahead of next wet season…

    LNP Member for Bundaberg David Batt opposed the amendments and said the changes eroded the parliamentary approval and committee process.
    “Labor’s decision to ram through legislation to allow them to immediately start tearing down the Paradise Dam wall without any of the usual permits or environmental approvals tears down the parliamentary process with it … refusing a committee review, community consultation,” he said.
    “We have incredible produce, incredible soil and, up until recently, we had incredible water security. That was until Labor decided to reduce Paradise dam to 42 per cent capacity with no real plan to reinstate the lost volume in future…

    The dam, southwest of Bundaberg, has fallen to 37 per cent capacity — 113,000 megalitres — since the concerns were raised in September…
    “What is the rush? Labor’s known about the issue since 2015 but suddenly the wall needs to come down right now.
    “Why not wait until the commission of inquiry and the Building Queensland report are finalised in the next two months? Is there something those opposite aren’t telling us?”…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/outrage-as-qld-government-passes-paradise-dam-amendment/11942342

    ABC finds another negative rain angle:

    7 Feb: ABC: Snakes, sandflies and bugs come out with welcome rain in western Queensland
    ABC Western Qld Craig Fitzsimmons
    Widespread rain across the state’s north saw more than 400mm tipped out of rain gauges in some parts, with the deluge transforming dry riverbeds into high-flowing waterways and sodden fields — the perfect breeding ground for bugs…

    Police in Mount Isa got a rude shock when they found a brown snake in their ranks.
    The town has enjoyed good rain to start 2020 — recording 195mm in the month of January — and the swollen riverbanks of the Leichhardt River have displaced snakes from their burrows forcing them to seek refuge on higher ground.
    The police station sits about 100 metres from the river, the smoko room has an adjoining courtyard, and an open door was the only invitation the deadly reptile needed…

    While the bugs and beetles can be annoying, they can also have a devastating effect on crops and grasslands.
    Since the beginning of the year, 100mm of rain has been registered in Longreach and the false wireworm beetle has been littering the ground since…

    Boom bug season upon us
    Further west, the Diamantina River has started flowing after heavy rain fell in its catchment in late January.
    The Diamantina River is a major river system in the Lake Eyre Basin, which extends north beyond Winton.
    Winton welcomed more than 200mm of rain in the last eight days of January…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/western-qld-rain-brings-out-snakes-flies-and-bugs/11935890

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    pat

    7 Feb: ABC: Murray-Darling Basin war of words over northern irrigators extracting water from potential river flows
    ABC Broken Hill By Declan Gooch, Gayle Ball and Georgia Roberts
    The NSW Government imposed a pre-emptive embargo several weeks ago on northern Murray-Darling Basin rivers within its jurisdiction.
    (NSW water minister Melinda) Pavey said that was to ensure that when it rained over the catchment area, water would flow the length of the system before irrigation was allowed.
    Queensland’s Warrego and Maranoa forecast district was expected to receive significant rainfall out of the week’s weather system.
    That would put meaningful rain over the Darling River’s northern tributaries for the first time in more than a year.
    “We want it to get to Menindee, we want it to get all the way down to the South Australian border. We need a big first flush of the river system. This drought has been unprecedented,” she said…

    As most of the rainfall was likely to come from thunderstorms and showers, it was difficult for forecasters to know how much to expect.
    “We will be monitoring the impact of the rainfall on an hourly basis,” (Pavey) said…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/murray-darling-basin-dispute-over-northern-irrigators-flood-flow/11942610

    7 Feb: ABC: Queensland’s heavy rain continues with flash flooding and Brisbane’s peak hour traffic disrupted
    Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecaster Jonty Hall said the Eumundi and Yandina area on the Sunshine Coast recorded 90 millimetres of rain in an hour overnight on Thursday.
    “It is a part of the world which is no stranger to heavy rainfall but even for there that was pretty heavy,” he said…

    Levels at Wivenhoe Dam, the main water supply for Brisbane, remained steady at 42.5 per cent.
    Since the end of last month, the amount of water in the dam had only increased by 341 megalitres.
    Seqwater said it expected minor inflows throughout several catchments over the day, which could contribute up to an additional 1 per cent to the storage of the combined water grid…

    “We have another system coming in hot on the heels of this one over the Darling Downs area during tomorrow,” Mr Hall (BoM) said.
    “So there’s potential for heavy falls on the Darling Downs tomorrow and that spreads eastwards to the coast on Sunday and Monday.
    “So we will see the return of more widespread heavy totals on Sunday and Monday.”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/south-east-queensland-rain-flash-flooding-traffic-disrupted/11940738

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    pat

    7 Feb: ABC: Cyclone Damien intensifies off WA coast as Karratha braces for impact on Saturday
    James Crow from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said the latest projections had the system crossing the coast as a category four — the second-highest classification — on Saturday afternoon…

    “At this stage we’re looking at a category four system, which could produce very destructive wind gusts in the order of 250 kilometres per hour, so things are going to blow around and there’s potentially heavy rainfall and storm surges associated with the system.”…

    OM duty forecaster Luke Huntington said it was unlikely Damien would further intensify to category five — the most severe level…

    But weather in the city was calm ahead of the cyclone’s arrival, as were most of the locals who spoke to the ABC.
    Tony Caetano, who has lived in the region 40 years, said he was hoping for plenty of rain…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/cyclone-damien-intensifies-off-wa-as-karratha-braces-for-impact/11942984

    read enough of the following & you’ll be told it’s CAT3:

    8 Feb: ABC: Tropical Cyclone Damien brings rain, gale force winds to WA’s Pilbara
    Updated 28 minutes ago
    The Bureau of Meteorology’s Neil Bennett said Karratha and Dampier have started feeling the brunt of the cyclone, with the eye wall now crossing over the communities…
    “The winds are at their peak right now … so it’s a very, very dangerous environment out there,” Mr Bennett told ABC Radio…

    He said Karratha Airport was experiencing wind gusts of 170 kilometres per hour, but gusts near the core could be as high as 220kph.

    The cyclone is crossing as a high category three system…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-08/tropical-cyclone-damien-wa-brings-rain-gale-force-winds/11946362

    Sky Australia was full of cyclone rubbish today. they’d have a news item about how it’s been downgraded to CAT3, lower wind speeds, etc., and then they’d go to some lengthy segment recorded earlier, with people in the region preparing for CAT4 & 260km/hr winds etc.

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    pat

    7 Feb: Daily Beast: Mike Bloomberg Is Paying ‘Influencers’ to Make Him Seem Cool
    The Bloomberg campaign is trying an ad strategy familiar to every other startup with a ton of cash and a questionable business model: Paying influencers to make it seem cool.
    by Scott Bixby
    The Bloomberg campaign has quietly begun a campaign on Tribe, a “branded content marketplace” that connects social-media influencers with the brands that want to advertise to their followers, to pitch influencers on creating content highlighting why they love the former New York City mayor—for a price.

    For a fixed $150 fee, the Bloomberg campaign is pitching micro-influencers—someone who has from 1,000 to 100,000 followers, in industry parlance—to create original content “that tells us why Mike Bloomberg is the electable candidate who can rise above the fray, work across the aisle so ALL Americans feel heard & respected.”…READ ON
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/mike-bloomberg-is-paying-influencers-to-make-him-seem-cool-9

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    pat

    open access:

    5 Feb: Australian: NSW Water Minister Melinda Pavey pleads: don’t take our water
    Exclusive By Ean Higgins,
    Queensland has allowed irrigation farmers opportunistically to pump water from rivers flowing for the first time in years after big downpours, with NSW monitoring the activity via satellite surveillance.
    The pumping has outraged the NSW government, which is maintaining bans on such “first flush” extractions by irrigators from NSW rivers in the Murray-­Darling Basin.

    Amid predictions of massive rainfall in coming days, it believes the Palaszczuk government is depriving­ parched NSW riverine communities downstream of the prospect of relief…READ ALL
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nsw-water-minister-melinda-pavey-pleads-dont-take-our-water/news-story/be113f2387dca3c208f732d5d2c4b074

    7 Feb: ABC: Murray-Darling Basin war of words over northern irrigators extracting water from potential river flows
    ABC Broken Hill By Declan Gooch, Gayle Ball and Georgia Roberts
    A row has broken out between the New South Wales and Queensland Governments over whether irrigators north of the border should be allowed to harvest potential river flows.
    NSW water minister Melinda Pavey said her government had seen satellite images showing Queensland irrigators were extracting water from some rivers in the northern Murray-Darling Basin.

    As widespread rain was forecast across much of that region this week, Ms Pavey said Queensland must impose bans to ensure some water from any potential flows crossed the border…READ ON
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/murray-darling-basin-dispute-over-northern-irrigators-flood-flow/11942610

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    Furiously curious

    An interesting article about Britain’s reliance on interconectors to European power grids. They could supply up to 1/2 Britain’s power needs, at times. And Britain can say how wonderfully they are doing at decarbonizing. And also they have sent most of their manufacturing off overseas, then neglect to take their imports carbon footprints into account.

    https://blogs.platts.com/2019/01/31/uk-electricity-links-europe-multiply-even-brexit-looms/

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  • #
    Vishnu

    This whole post is a tad fast and loose “Climate change has made no difference to the drought trends in Australia in the last 178 years and climate models are totally skilless at rainfall. When will the climate modelers admit that these are natural cycles?”

    and previous – and requoted above “Almost nothing in the last 30 years is unusual or unprecedented despite humans putting out 50% of all our CO2 since 1989.”

    It’s almost just too slick and agitprop-ish. Does any serious climate researcher dispute climatic variability – ENSO, IOD, SAM etc.
    ANd let’s take a sample size of THREE location points and draw a spatial conclusion. (we’ll just ignore drier SW WA, a wetter Kimberley and seasonal trends in the MDB, movement of Hadley cells at decadal scale – ahem).

    30 years – just one IPO cycle. Really? The IPO effect alone could be going one way or another. Reinforcing or diluting.

    6 out of 10 for having a go – could get more points for a non-cherry pick style.

    I note your home fair city is doing its bit

    https://pawsey.org.au/case_studies/from-global-to-local-climate-change-predictions-for-your-own-backyard/

    Hope you are going to AMOS Conference Perth next week to set them straight or just groove on the sheer nerdiness.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      I’m just so glad that you’re here “contributing” because it makes it so much less of a burden for the rest of us.

      As to the c r a p you have written, I’ll leave that for others to judge. But maybe I’m just cherry picking.

      KK

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    • #
      AndyG55

      So , just another mindless rant, deplete of any evidence of anything…

      … except that you haven’t got anything worthwhile to say.

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    • #
      el gordo

      ‘ … we’ll just ignore drier SW WA …’

      Its been wetter since July 2017 due to a blocking high pattern.

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  • #
    Ronald Bruce

    This is the rain that was never going to fall again and never going to fill our dams. the next thing Will be the Socialist warmists. Will complain that the extra rain is going to increase sea levels. never give in to a warmest socialist Greens They will only ever demand. 10 times more.

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  • #
    Treeman

    Not much has been made of the Indian Ocean Dipole dissipation. The rains arrived as it happened. It was noted here

    The Indian Ocean Dipole refers to an index that measures sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean. When the index is positive, the pattern of sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean restricts the amount of moisture in the atmosphere over Australia. This typically causes below average rain and above average temperatures in large parts of the country.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole adopted a positive pattern in late May and persisted in this phase until late December, reaching a strong peak in October.

    The rains across Queensland and NSW have extended well into the inland and

    This prolonged and strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole helped cause unusually warm and dry weather in Australia between winter and early summer, exacerbating the drought and helping bushfires burn across eastern Australia.

    While Indian Ocean Dipole events usually dissipate in late spring, the strength of this episode allowed it to persist well into summer. However, the latest weekly index value has dropped to neutral territory for the first time in months.

    While this doesn’t mean the weather in Australia will change abruptly, it does take this dominant climate driver out of the equation as we head into the new year.

    The rains have extended well into inland Queensland and NSW with a lot more on the way, according to FarmOnline infographics.

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    yarpos

    Just wait a minute. When the floods come it will be a climate related extreme event.

    I imagine Wivenhoe is having the cr@p managed out of it at the moment interms over oversight and double/triple checking.

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  • #
    Annie

    That’s brilliant treeman. Well said Senator Malcolm Roberts.

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  • #
    John PAK

    Bucketting down in Berambing, Blue Mtns too. Tanks already over-flowing.

    40

  • #
    Dennis

    Hello, ScoMo, are you listening?

    50

  • #
    Annie

    Can’t see treeman’s comment I was responding to?

    10

  • #
    el gordo

    He may have picked up a red card.

    00

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Moved by Jo ?

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  • #
    Annie

    Yes, it seems so. I realised what had happened when I looked at the newest thread.

    10

  • #
    Annie

    Does that make me ‘Orphan Annie’?

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