JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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CoronaVirus more infectious, but we *hope*, less deadly. Without closed borders Covid-19 uncontainable

So Coronavirus is now CoVID-19.

We’ve been walking the cusp of containable versus pandemic for two weeks but the growth of infections outside China is just a bit too fast, a bit too random and the news suggests its easier to spread. At least the number of severe cases outside China is still only 2% of the total. But there’s a lag of a week or two, so that’s likely to rise. If it is even possible to stop, I suspect only the mass closure of borders will do.

World (ex China)      Cases: 517         Deaths: 2         Recovered: 54         Severe: 12

Singapore Case list

Click to enlarge

While Australia and the US and even India have the illusion of stability, the rise in Singapore, and on that ship is hard to ignore. Singapore is doing advanced tracking, yet still it spreads (see the chart, right). The difference between Singapore and Australia may be part luck — one superspreader versus one man who didn’t infect anyone on a whole plane.What matters then, is just how many people are superspreaders? The one ray from Singapore is that 15 people on that list are already listed as recovered. When I say we hope it’s less deadly, “hope” is the key word. If 10% of people need an ICU unit, by the time Australia has 20,000 infections, the ICU beds will be full. That’s only a bit over 10 doublings from now (about 10 weeks, unless containment measures, like tracking and isolation and perhaps anti-virals help).

What happened to the precautionary principle? Wouldn’t it be prudent to temporarily close some more doors to South East Asia just until we know how hard this virus may hit us? Buy time…

The lack of cases in Indonesia is a bad sign -- suggesting they are not even finding the cases, let alone doing reliable quarantine measures. So far it has tested only 64 people. What we are seeing may be the tip of the iceberg. A few prisoners have turned up with suspected cases in the UK. One flew in from Thailand 16 days ago (theoretically longer than quarantine). Maybe it’s just the real flu? Wait and see.

The Cruise Ship has another 39 cases. It remains the most affected “nation” by far outside China. A sombre lesson that perhaps cruise ships are not good quarantine units for an virus that spreads via aerosol. Indeed, ships resemble floating apartment blocks, and in China, that may turn out to be part of the reason things are going so pear shaped so fast. (Aside from mass censorship, totalitarian rule, and “edgy eating habits”).  The original infection (perhaps) on the ship was an 80 year old who got off the ship in Hong Kong on Jan 25th. From one infection to 175 in just 17 days. That’s 7 doublings — unless there were other asymptomatic passengers — which there may have been.

Another cruise ship is wandering the ocean as nations turn it away in fear. Some 2,257 passengers on board are apparently healthy, but Japan, Taiwan, the Phillipines and Guam have said they can’t allow the boat to dock or the people to disembark. At the same time hundreds of planes land every day. For some reason that does not scare people. The Westerdam cruise ship looks like it may be accepted by Cambodia, of all places.

The mismatch between official numbers and the scenes in China on twitter continue. Suddenly there are nice stories of people dancing in hospitals, and food deliveries to quarantined homes, but we also know that in two provinces of China private property can now be legally requisitioned for the purposes of virus control. That’s homes, vehicles, everything. Teams are roaming through student dormitories tossing their belongings into the quadrangle, and turning their rooms into makeshift hospital facilities. This is desperate.

Hilton has 150 hotels in China and they are all closed. All 33,000 rooms. Will the CCP commandeer them?

There is talk the incubation period might be as long as 24 days in a preprint on MedRxIV “Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China. It also suggests the median incubation is just 3 days. The long 24 day estimate was “only one patient”. Thankfully, seems to be an outlier. A shorter incubation makes it easier to track contacts.

 

 

Cases Outside China

….

 

For anyone wanting a not so scary documentary look at one community in Wuhan, see this video. At least there people are getting food deliveries. It all looks calm. Better than the videos of people falling from skyscrapers in the hope of getting rice or the truckloads of animals being dumped in pits. There seem to be less scary scenes today, but is that just thanks to the scary CCP filtering? At least one journalist has recently gone missing…

CoVID quarantine plants springing up everywhere. Hmm. Not like the flu.

Image

Tip of the iceberg?

 

 

The Worldometer table plusthe sums of non-Chinese statistics

Country, Total Cases Feb-11 Total Total Total
Territory Cases Deaths Deaths Recovered Severe
China 44,686 2,048 1,116 4,793 8,204
Japan 203 42 4
Hong Kong 49 7 1
Singapore 47 2 9 7
Thailand 33 1 10 1
S. Korea 28 1 4
Malaysia 18 3
Taiwan 18 1
Germany 16 2
Australia 15 5
Vietnam 15 1 6
USA 13 1 3
France 11 1
Macao 10 1
U.K. 8 1
U.A.E. 8 1 1
Canada 7 1
Philippines 3 1 2
India 3
Italy 3 2
Russia 2
Spain 2
Cambodia 1 1
Nepal 1
Sri Lanka 1 1
Sweden 1
Finland 1 1
Belgium 1
Total outside China 517 57 2 54 12

 

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.8/10 (39 votes cast)
CoronaVirus more infectious, but we *hope*, less deadly. Without closed borders Covid-19 uncontainable, 9.8 out of 10 based on 39 ratings

83 comments to CoronaVirus more infectious, but we *hope*, less deadly. Without closed borders Covid-19 uncontainable

  • #
    PeterS

    Singapore bank DBS evacuates 300 staff after coronavirus case surfaces

    As a precautionary measure, all 300 employees on Level 43 at MBFC have been evacuated and will work from home, the bank said.
    Singapore has reported 50 cases of coronavirus, one of the highest number of infections outside China.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Can anyone see the hypocrisy in their approach? Or is it just me?

      30

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      I worked in Singapore, for a couple of years, when I was, but a young sprout.

      I was always impressed in how the place was so clean, and the populace so fit, and so well disciplined.

      In my cynical years, I would suggest that 50+ suspected cases have been identified, but that; if true, is a small percentage of the population.

      But that might be sufficient for the banks to hold onto any cash deposits, and invest the paper money into other more lucrative returns.

      Just a thought.

      40

    • #
      george1st:)

      ?Precautionary , So levels 0-42 and 44-50 are ok? ,and the 300 employees now working from home are ok?
      Lets hope that little germ was never there and the precautions are just precautionary .

      00

  • #
    Roger Knights

    Thanks for these updates and fearless interpretations. There are certainly hints in what we know that this could be quite serious.

    70

  • #
    Mike Jonas

    Thanks, Jo, for a good series of articles. Measured language, range of possibilities canvassed, uncertainties highlighted, all checkable.

    You have expressed concern that Indonesia has 0 reported cases. Looking at your world table, It looks a bit like the countries with more reported cases tend to be the countries that would have better reporting systems. Is Africa an even greater concern than Indonesia? Zero reported cases for the whole of Africa, yet China is reportedly heavily involved in Africa. Has China quarantined Africa or has Africa not looked for cases very well? (Not the only possibilities).

    No matter what, it would appear that the Australian government has treated the outbreak with the right amount of caution and concern for its citizens.

    Jo – please keep up the good work. Anyone wanting good information is as usual pretty much wasting their time on the ABC.

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    • #

      Mike, In the end Africa matters a lot. Yes. In the immediate sense, I’d think we have more chance of catching it from the mass flights to Bali / Singapore / Thailand.

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    • #

      Africa is interesting since there is actually a reasonable amount of Chinese tourism into Africa. Given the relative numbers in the period when cases appeared in other tourist destinations it is highly improbable that Africa had none.

      60

    • #
      C. Paul Barreira

      Africa—rather a age term—has its own problems, whether drought or flooding or, as recently reported, huge shames of locusts (see, e.g., here). Swarms also infest Somalia and Ethiopia.

      20

  • #
    R.B.

    And when things aren’t really unprecedented

    Ancient Antarctic ice melt caused extreme sea level rise 129,000 years ago – and it could happen again

    At the Conversation, co authored by someone familiar, Chris Turkey.

    We found that the mass melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was a major cause of high sea levels during a period known as the Last Interglacial (129,000-116,000 years ago). The extreme ice loss caused more than three metres of average global sea level rise – and worryingly, it took less than 2˚C of ocean warming for it to occur

    It actually took more warming than that in the polar regions. Forests grew north of the Arctic circle and there were hippopotamus living on the Thames and Rhine.

    70

    • #
      R.B.

      Oops. Wrong post. Meant for the previous one.

      30

    • #
      Brian

      Nil desperandum R.B. The temperatures in the last interglacial were around 4 degrees Celsius hotter than today, at the poles. Despite the volcanic induced melting in Western Antarctica the Antarctic ice mass is increasing.

      50

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Interesting article from Reuters on the Cruise ship at Yokohama.
    There is also an interview with a supposedly ‘Australian’ woman on board who is in fact Chinese.
    She is missing her ordinary life !
    I suspect she is going to is it for a good while longer
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-japan/japan-cruise-ship-coronavirus-cases-climb-to-175-including-quarantine-officer-idUKKBN206019

    40

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Jo your post brings us to the question :
    ” Should Australia be instituting quarantine measures on all people entering Australia from
    The Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, Hong Kong etc ?”
    Doing so would be a huge task and hugely expensive.
    But it may necessary. So I hope that our Commonwealth government has been planning for it.

    Meanwhile there is a key aspect of this virus which needs research:
    Is the virus killed off by warm temperatures ?
    Is the intense cold in Wuhan promoting the spread of the disease.
    Surely this issue needs to be researched urgently.

    50

    • #
      AP

      Yes. Not a single case in South America or the Middle East either.

      40

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Well the Middle east is cold currently !
        It snowed in Baghdad the other day
        And in Iran, Turkey, and parts of Saudi Arabia.
        If cold temperatures promote this virus
        It should appear there next.

        70

      • #
        Annie

        Not so AP. There are 8 cases detected in the UAE, according to Gulf News. 1 Indian national (a resident of Dubai), 6 Chinese nationals and 1 from The Philippines.

        60

    • #
      Richard

      There are 50 cases in Singapore, so the heat of Singapore obviously doesn’t cause it any problems.

      20

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Yes I did see that about Singapore. A couple of factors could be in play:

        1: Singapore being populated mostly by Chinese has close contacts with China with many people flying to & fro between the two places ( similar to Hong Kong ) So for the purposes of this disease Singapore could be counted as ‘Chinese’.

        2: While Singapore is in the tropics, there is an awful lot of cooling & centralised air conditioning in high rises towers where people live & work. This may be lowering the temperature to a degree that the virus can live while also spreading the virus via the air conditioning ducts.

        We will know for certain shortly !

        10

        • #
          Richard

          Yes, we will know soon enough. Here in central Queensland it will certainly be hot enough to keep it at bay if your theory is correct, so I hope you are right.

          20

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    The government has banned anyone flying direct to Australia from China
    But there are a lot of Chinese students studying in Australia who went home for the holidays.
    They want to return to continue their studies.
    And many of them are flying to places like Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia
    And waiting out our 14 day quarantine period there with a view to flying on here.
    I assume most of these Chinese students will not develop the disease.
    But some will and become infectious in those countries.

    Meanwhile Australians are travelling to those countries for holidays or family reasons.
    And they will soon be returning to Australia.

    It seems to me that the Commonwealth governmeNt
    Should be issuing a “DO NOT TRAVEL” advice warnings for these countries.

    70

    • #
      MudCrab

      Just had a quick look on smartraveller.gov.au

      China = DO NOT TRAVEL
      Vietnam & Malaysia = Exercise normal levels of caution
      Thailand = Exercise a high degree of caution, although I think most of that is related to ‘high levels of violence, including frequent attacks and bombings’ in the southern provinces (these four provinces are flaged DO NOT TRAVEL)

      So yes, at time of writing there seems to be no real Corona related travel warnings for the 3 countries Bill has mentioned.

      30

  • #
    Roger

    Speculation in the UK that the total of deaths is far higher than China reports.

    “Coronavirus news: Weird smoke hangs over Wuhan, is China BURNING 1000s of infected bodies?”

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1237919/coronavirus-latest-outbreak-video-wuhan-smog-china-fog-health-news

    30

  • #
    nb

    Missing info from available data: Genetic ancestry (is that a term?) of those seriously ill and those who have died. I can see public health reasons to suppress this data, but, nevertheless, it’d be very interesting to know.

    50

    • #
      TdeF

      It’s ok to say race. Like Chinese or African or whatever.

      Everyone is different. I find it really annoying that medical differences and all other differences are suppressed by the accusation of racist. Racism is about different rights for different people. All people should be equal under the law does not mean they should be all the same. That is at the base of this male/female rubbish, men pretending to be women and demanding they compete with women. Competing in sport is not a human right. There are classes of competition, say like boxing, nothing more.

      And it makes life very hard to treat ab*rigines for a total lack of resistance to alcohol poisoning because people insist denying alcohol to communities is racist when it is their specific health problem, like diabetics and sugar.

      Viruses are also more common in different races and societies. So smallpox wiped out American Indians, the common cold wiped out Tasmanian ab*rigines and syphilis from South America was the scourge of Europe. So too with flu strains.

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      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        A recent study by Li et al. reports that angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE-2) is the receptor critical for mediating SARS-CoV entry into host cells.

        https://www.rndsystems.com/resources/articles/ace-2-sars-receptor-identified

        Does it have a “genetic ancestry” that varies across races, I wonder.

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      • #
        Bulldust

        I find it interesting that on the one hand they say there is no real difference between men and women (Google “men can…” and see what it suggests), but then we have trans-people. If there’s no real difference what are they trans-ing to? Also, the B in LGBTI seems to imply only two genders? Seems problematic, no?

        This whole ‘woke’ ideology is already imploding on itself, and it can’t come quick enough IMO.

        70

        • #
          Eddie

          L G B and T aren’t genders but constructs ofI may be up this weekend or next depending on weather. binary conditioning.

          10

  • #
    TdeF

    The ship is still the perfect closed system for study. It is disappointing but that could be variability not in the time of infection but the time for symptoms to emerge. The delay is unusually long and possibly highly personal and perhaps highly variable. This alone is not proof that the infection within the ship is continuing, perhaps because of the airconditioning. I hope it should be a simple matter to supply all cabins with only fresh air, venting all output over the sea. That does not mean anyone is doing it.

    I wonder if the vents are even more flexible because of fire and flood provisions which might mean ventilation is in traditional modules down the length of the ship as defined by firedoors and bulkheads. That would make it natural to completely isolate segments down the length, at least in the lower floors. Though these modern cruise ships are many stories above the waterline and perhaps more like a modern hotel but if it is driven from below decks, the modules may persist allowing further isolation down the length.

    It is notable that one of the quarantine people is now also infected from contact, despite precautions. Still we hope that the number of new infections drops rapidly now.

    50

    • #
      Konrad

      I am still unconvinced that airborne transmission is what is causing the virus to spread in the asymptomatic phase. (It may do so after persons are symptomatic.)

      The cruise ship infections appear to follow the pattern of a “normal” gastro/novovirus outbreak on a cruise ship. We currently have the example of the MS Westerdam as a control in this experiment.

      The transfer among asymptomatic persons appears to be fecal contamination of hands then surfaces, with others then contaminating their hands and mouths. In Wuhan, the cold weather would be prolonging the life of the virus outside the body, thus exacerbating this process. This would account for the bleach spraying of public areas now observed in China.

      One of the problems on cruise ships is that many of the economy passengers have communal bathrooms and group sleeping quarters. This is also true for staff.

      Considering the gastro angle (which Australian medical persons have been very slow to do)gives us a better idea of preventative measures. Further there is the possibility of testing persons without cold an flu symptoms. There is even the remote possibility of developing a drug that makes the gastro intestinal system inclement to the virus, reducing the chance of infection or reducing the viral load in the initial stages of infection, thus making infected persons less able to spread the virus.

      40

  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    Are you sure the quarantine camps near airports are only for those infected with the virus? Could it also be to quarantine Republicans, Trump supporters, and other such flyover country despicable characters?

    Taring up the State of the Union speech was symbolic for taring up our constitution and its limitations on the power of government. Truth had nothing to do with it. It was a statement of the wish for absolute power over We the People. It is a very small step from impeaching Trump because he won in 2016 to establishing gulags to re-educating Trump supporters into the correct way of thinking.

    Vote Trump in 2020!

    42

  • #
    pat

    Wikipedia: Quarantine
    The word quarantine comes from a seventeenth-century Venetian variant of the Italian quaranta giorni, meaning forty days, the period that all ships were required to be isolated before passengers and crew could go ashore during the Black Death plague epidemic…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine

    12 Feb: TTG: Caribbean Princess turned away from port after norovirus outbreak
    The ship was denied permission to port in Trinidad & Tobago as a precautionary measure after more than 300 guests and some 26 crew fell ill…
    According to the CDC, 345 guests and 26 crew have been struck down with vomiting and diarrhoea symptoms, adding the ship will undergo “super sanitation cleaning” when it returns to port on Thursday.

    12 Feb: CruiseTradeNews: Caribbean Princess turns back after norovirus outbreak
    A Caribbean Princess sailing has been cut short after more than 300 passengers on the ship began suffering with a suspected outbreak of norovirus…
    The ship left on a two-week Caribbean voyage on 2 February from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, with 3,000 guests and 1,100 crew on board.
    Guests are now reported to be suffering from vomiting and diarrhoea, typical symptoms of the winter vomiting bug…
    Princess Cruises spokesperson: “The affected guests are being treated by the onboard medical team and there are no cases of coronavirus identified among the guests or crew.”…

    Yesterday, at least 89 passengers on board Saga’s Spirit of Discovery were also reported to have fallen ill with norovirus and the ship was refused entry into Gibraltar…
    https://www.cruisetradenews.com/caribbean-princess-norovirus-outbreak-cruise/

    have also been noting no South American cases reported, and China is heavily involved there.

    50

  • #
    David Maddison

    Just for your information, YouTube has demonetised all videos talking about coronavirus.

    111

  • #
    Roger Knights

    FYI (On SeekingAlpha):
    China’s Coronavirus Epidemic Appears To Be Peaking; Next Up: Massive Stimulus
    Feb. 11, 2020 10:15 AM ET
    Random Itinerant
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4323096-chinas-coronavirus-epidemic-appears-to-be-peaking-next-up-massive-stimulus?utm_medium=email

    00

  • #
  • #
    AP

    Has anyone else noticed they are getting A LOT less spam lately?

    I wonder if most of originates from China?

    I was getting ~100 per day filtered though to my junk folder and its now down to five or ten.

    70

  • #

    once my comment is out of moderation this will have already been noted and is appearing in news outlets if you want to read more. This graph just got silly

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    silly because all the earlier data is using one form of data collection and the recent, and alarming, data point another collection method. Some (most?) of the recent data actually occurred on earlier dates so that the x-axis is not a timeline of events but merely a timeline of adding the data to the graph.

    30

  • #
    Capn Jack

    I know I know its a fake news site buth this link is On TopicT I would not be surprised at deaths in the four or five figure range considering lack of facilities. poor health in smog laden urban environs. The unknowns in china are huge and as Jo noted the WHO covered itself in ploitics and not health outcomes. Of the many lessons to be learnt the main one is listen to truted sources.

    Off topic The abc is actually looking at UHI only 15 years too late to actual Man made local warming and perhaps global warming.

    40

  • #
    Konrad

    This article while two weeks old, has an intelligent discussion of the origins of the virus, and why it is most likely an industrial accident, not a bioweapon.

    The discussion of the ACE2 receptor will be of interest to those that have noted the apparent racial vector in infection and numbers requiring ICU treatment. However, given the virus’ ability to mutate this vector is likely to change.

    30

  • #
    Brian

    I think that Joanne identified the variable responsible for the high death rate in Wuhan province. The number of cases swamped the intensive care capability in no time and the sick are in makeshift centres with shortages of things like oxygen. Currently the cases in the West are minimal and can be dealt with in intensive case units, greatly enhancing the probability if recovery. With respect to the lack of cases in Africa where there has been significant contact with people travelling from China is a lack of health facilities and complete inability to test for Coronavirus.

    40

  • #
    William Astley

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

    This is interesting.

    So, it looks like Hubei lost control…

    … and then there was some fibbing about cases

    …and then there was a stupid idea to not test for the virus to avoid high numbers

    … and due to a lack of facilities there was initial turning sick people away which help the virus spread.

    and finally after the sacking of the responsible dummies and there is damage control as the Hubei numbers are adjusted.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51482994

    Coronavirus: Sharp increase in coronavrius deaths and cases in Hubei
    Some 242 people died from the new coronavrius in the Chinese province of Hubei on Wednesday – the deadliest day since the outbreak began.
    There was also a huge increase in the number of cases, with 14,840 people diagnosed with the virus.

    Hubei has started using a broader definition to diagnose people – which accounts for much of the rise in cases.

    Until Wednesday’s increases, the number of people diagnosed in Hubei – where the outbreak emerged – was stabilising.

    Earlier, China’s National Health Commission published its national update for Tuesday. The number of cases, 2,015, was the lowest for two weeks.
    But the new cases and deaths in Hubei have pushed the national death toll above 1,350 – with almost 60,000 cases in total.

    Meanwhile, the World Health Organization said it was “way too early” to predict the end of the epidemic.

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    • #
      TdeF

      Not really. The absurd revelation when Wuhan (11 Million) was locked down was that 5 million people had already escaped? What sort of lockdown is that? That’s the population of Portugal who left. Hubei is the province, so this is the original group, dispersed to the countryside to escape the virus, which they took with them.

      50

  • #
    GreatAuntJanet

    Interesting and informative podcasts(more or less daily) with a wide variety of people with different expertise, about different aspects of this pandemic. for example, today’s (ep 15) concerned medical supplies and the fact that most drugs and things like facemasks are manufactured in China, and that the US no longer makes (and can’t make) even the most basic of pharmaceuticals, like penicillin, aspirin, Vit C and many more.

    If the Chinese factories don’t go back to work, or exports to the rest of the world stop, we might no longer be able to cure simple infections or do elective surgery. And that’s just to start with.

    https://pandemic.warroom.org/ (

    60

  • #
    Graeme Bird

    If we cannot get the authorities to limit contact with certain parts of the world it might be that we have to concentrate on boosting immunity. This might not be the best year for working 70 hours a week and only getting four hours sleep a night. Easier said then done. People have these huge commitments. I took so much iodine that my skin got itchy so I’m right with the iodine for now. But don’t forget iodine and vitamin D. Might be an excuse for some of you workaholics to sleep in and then head to the beach every now and then. If you are rich you might want to eat a lot of fish and seaweed while you are there.

    Here is a fellow getting down to the microscopic detail of why getting enough sleep is a big issue in the face of this viral threat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqZYEgREuZ8

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  • #
    WXcycles

    Jo, the CCP finally gave up the case “redefinition” ruse, 60,000 cases!

    ” … There are currently 60,061 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,355 fatalities.

    Last update: 12 February 2020 at 10:10 p.m. ET”

    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

    30

  • #
    WXcycles

    hmm … 240 fatalitie, within one day.

    Plus this still makes no sense at all.

    China Cases
    Cases | Deaths | Serious/critical
    59,493 | 1,353 | 8,047

    International Cases
    Cases | Deaths | Serious/critical
    490 | 1 | 17

    The number of ‘serious cases’ is wildly inconsistent. It strongly suggests the Chinese cases must be several times higher than 60,000.

    (Is BOM doing CCP’s numbers these days?)

    40

    • #
      Gee aye

      Simple two way anova there. Test your assumptions

      10

    • #
      Graeme Bird

      It may mean a string of things. More than the 60 000 cases. The purported selenium deficiency in some areas of China. Pre-existing lung problems due to outrageous air pollution. Low vitamin D levels this time of year. Chinese workaholism? But I think it suggests more cases also. Hard to escape that tentative conclusion. I remember I got a serious lurgie about two years ago. I couldn’t lie down without coughing. So I couldn’t sleep. Very scary.

      00

  • #
    angech

    Wuhan Coronavirus–a WUWT Scientific Commentary by Rud Istvan is one of the best descriptions of current knowledge of viruses
    and spread in a summary form I have ever seen or read. It is a must read for anyone seriously concerned or wanting up to date knowledge.
    Quarantine should be mandatory.
    Survivors will be producing lots of antibodies that could save other lives with harvesting of their Immunoglobulin.
    Someone needs to get the word out more.

    40

  • #
    Graeme Bird

    Scroll in 28 minutes and 20 seconds. Dr Gundries extreme approach to vitamin D3 and viruses.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTYDzcC-n1k

    32

  • #
    pat

    time will tell:

    VIDEO: 2m37s: 12 Feb: KVUE/ABC: San Diego lab discovers coronavirus vaccine in 3 hours
    Inovio Pharmaceuticals created a vaccine that is going through pre-clinical trials.
    Author: Neda Iranpour
    SAN DIEGO — In a race against the clock, a San Diego lab is scrambling to get a COVID-19 vaccine out and on the market. As the days go by, Inovio Pharmaceuticals is getting closer to releasing the desperately needed vaccine against the deadly virus.
    Inovio Pharmaceuticals, which is located in Sorrento Valley, has also created a vaccine for the Zika virus, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and the vaccine for Ebola…

    When Chinese scientists released the genetic sequence on Jan. 9, Inovio researchers got to work immediately and within 3 hours they had a vaccine for coronavirus, or COVID-19 as it is now being referred to.
    “We have an algorithm which we designed, and we put the DNA sequence into our algorithm and came up with the vaccine in that short amount of time,” said Dr. Smith…
    The vaccine has been tested on mice and guinea pigs. It will next be tried on a group of human patients…

    If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be made available to the public by early this summer – which would be a record time frame for Inovio Pharmaceuticals.
    Currently, an Inovio Pharmaceuticals lead researcher is in Sweden meeting with the World Health Organization to come up with the best plan of attack against COVID-19…
    https://www.kvue.com/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-vaccine-san-diego/509-e18e37f6-347c-4b08-ad33-910968abb04f?__twitter_impression=true

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  • #
    Brian

    With this latest admission by the Chinese the Coronavirus infection rate follows the expected geometric progression with a factor of 1.3. Far more infectious than the original estimate of 1.2.

    40

  • #
    george1st:)

    There is virtually no screening or testing facilities available in many parts of the world for this virus infection .
    Africa apparently only has a lab in S.A and 1 other country for the whole continent of 1 bn people .
    Who knows what happens in other even more remote or poorer areas .
    Where ever a carrier has been , they may have infected others who could now be diagnosed as dying of the flu or pneumonia .
    I hope I am wrong , but I fear this is going to get much worse before it is contained .

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      Konrad

      It seems people were slow to pick up on this, and sadly stomach pain and diarrhea were not included in the list of symptoms the self quarantined were told to look for.

      But after the cruise ship and now the Hong Kong towers the message should be sinking in for most doctors. (This doesn’t include Dr. Brendan Murphy in Australia, as that clown is too busy fighting imagined racism to worry about actually stopping the virus).

      The US military has just activated its global pandemic protocol for unknown diseases. This includes gastrointestinal contamination prevention. (The US clearly are not interested in anything Tedros the Tardulent has to say).

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    William Astley

    US Centers of Disease Control’s Director believes Wuhan Virus will be a permanent problem which will develop into “community-based transmission”. (See link below.)

    Here is a possible scenario for that paradigm.

    Assume the Wuhan Virus has made it to Africa, however, the cases in Africa are less severe than the cases in Asia, as the Wuhan Virus’ parts developed for natural reasons, to infect Asians (see comment)

    Now in Africa the RNA based Wuhan Virus continues to evolve, to enable it, to infect all human genetic types.

    The new, new, novel coronavirus, can spread with flu like rapidity….

    … however it is more deadly than the flu as it has the microbiological connectors, to attack the lungs, causing critical illness.

    Comment;
    There was an RNA based Virus that was 97% identical to the Wuhan Virus that has found by a Canadian NGO roughly 10 years ago, in a bat cave, in the Hubei province. They published their results. (From an article in a major Canadian newspaper.)

    They told the Chinese authorities that there was a dangerous virus in the bat cave. The Chinese authorities placed a ‘do not enter’ sign on the entry to the bat cave.

    The NGO also tested people living in the vicinity of the bat cave and found that a small percentage had been exposed to the virus that was 97% identical to the Wuhan virus.

    So the virus developed to infect those in its range which explains its initial specialization to infect Asians. RNA viruses rapidly mutate.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html

    Right now we’re in an aggressive containment mode,” CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told CNN’s Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an interview on Thursday.

    “We don’t know a lot about this virus,” he said. “This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission.”

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    Bill In Oz

    The Sydney Morning Hogwash
    long ago mastered the art of BS & propaganda.
    Now it looks as if it’s is working
    For the Chinese Communist Party.
    To reassure us Australians that there is
    Nothing to fear in China from the Corona virus disease !

    Hogwash !

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/02/the-sydney-morning-sell-out-smh-journalists-and-management-bend-over-and-take-it.html?fbclid=IwAR0zsbHkKFGXhJUsD8Go41_FvX9sGaUjaewdVfrWQkZa5gAaQPa3oKx8B10

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      Konrad

      Have Fauxfacts absolutely no shame at all?!

      At a time when China’s lies are putting millions of lives at risk, they take money to publish propaganda for the Chinese Communist Party! How could you get any lower?

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    David A

    Also don’t forget the time line. Wuhan may well be three weeks or more ahead of the ROW.
    The serious cases were reported to have the same pathology as the light cases until late in week two. Wuhan does of a certainty have more cases then reported – dozens of interviews of patients and Doctors on long lines of sick people and no beds for them, on no testing for many they do accept. Reports of many simply going home to perhaps die. Virtually nobody asymptomatic was tested so that is not the change. Also the forced isolation of thousand of exposed to infected people who are asymptomatic into rows of beds in large buildings ( where many are likely spreading the disease) is insane, even murderous. Imagine if they did this on the cruise ships. No wonder citizens were desperate to avoid the Government collectors.

    It is reported that change in case load is due to new diagnostic acceptance of certain lung conditions as a positive test, greatly accelerating a backlogue on the traditional test that is estimated to require several days. ( Not good in an exponential growth situation)

    All the numbers are likely FUBAR, for all of the reasons listed and more. You do not quarantine 400 million over 800 or so dead. Add a magnitude to the official numbers and the complete shutting down of the economy and begins to make since.
    Toltaltarian regimes discourage bad news. China’s economy is in free fall. This discourages other nations from accurate reporting. (Strongly discourages)

    There is also a great deal of reports from wealthy Chinese businessman, moving all over the nation ahead of the next projected quarantine. ( Almost universally they say it is very bad, much worse then the official numbers)

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    Konrad

    I’m an atheist, while I can understand the concept of a God, I have 100% certainty that organised religion’s true knowledge of any such being, could be written on the back of a postage stamp with a blunt crayon.

    Right now I could almost believe in a God.

    Idiot humans at the Wuhan lab opened Pandora’s box. Over 10% of the human race now faces extinction.

    But then when all seems lost, the croupier in our casino of existence deals us a King and an Ace. What are the odds?

    A cruise ship quarantined in Japan and an appartment block with dodgy plumbing in Hong Kong. The very two cards we need.

    It should be a winning hand. But sadly Dr. Brendan Murphy is playing for Australia …

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