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Coronavirus — early rates of severe cases in Hong kong and Singapore are over 10%

Global Markets were shaken by the sudden rise in numbers out of China yesterday. But the increase was not a surprise for anyone who has been watching social media and the measures being taken in China. That China is now allowing the WHO in may be an admission that they really do need help.  The explanation for the jump is that China changed the definitions.  They are also admitting that there may be many cases of people with low grade infections, but also unattributed deaths as well. For days the ratio of cases to deaths was suspiciously 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.1% …  Now perhaps it’s a tiny bit closer to the truth.

The tally outside China continues to rise: there now 587 cases, with 3 deaths (1 new one in Japan) and 24 people classified as “serious critical”.  These are the key figures to watch. We expected the number of cases that were severe to rise as the five to eight day lag unfolds from the first symptoms to the onset of breathing trouble. So at the moment 4% of cases outside China are headed for hospital intervention, perhaps ICU (does anyone know the definition of “Serious Critical”?). That will keep rising. We need to see that leveling off so we know what kind of load to plan for with ICU units. The early days rates of serious cases in Hong Kong (11%), Singapore (14%) and Japan (2%) are a concern. Unless there is a genetic factor or other localized risk the current low levels elsewhere will presumably trend up to match. I’ll write more on that soon, but “hoping” those rates will be lower is not much of a strategy, though if we are lucky, rates may be lower.

Germany has 16 cases, none of which has progressed to severe. The first five cases were all diagnosed by Jan 28th, but how many cases were there in Germany on 4th Feb? The lag in case progression means only these early cases would be expected to have become “severe”. Oh for more data…  Also bearing in mind about 32,000 in Germany – are currently suffering from flu.

Let’s stress these rates of severe cases are very early and small caseloads and the numbers are highly variable. It’s still possible that Covid 19 is widely spread and with a low grade infection, and all the rates are therefore overestimates among the population as a whole. We hope.

About 14% of patients have recovered but it can take a month so there is a long lag there too.

First lock down outside China occurs

At this point, even to limit the load to a manageable level we ought be stopping more flights from at risk countries. Vietnam has only 15 cases but has locked down a small village  of 10,000 in the north.It’s only 40km from Hanoi.

The locking down of Son Loi, about 40 kilometres from Hanoi, is the first mass quarantine outside of China since the virus emerged from a central Chinese city late last year. “As of February 13, 2020, we will urgently implement the task of isolation and quarantine of the epidemic area in Son Loi commune,” said a health ministry statement. “The timeline… is for 20 days”. The health ministry previously said five people in Son Loi had been infected with the virus, and on Thursday reported a sixth case.

The hunt is on for the single case source in Singapore that has not yet been identified. This story is worth reading if you want to understand the burden of tracking cases to limit infections. That single case source may well be fine now, and not shedding, but what are the odds that they didn’t unknowingly infect just one other person who is now “at loose”?

Three weeks later, global health authorities are still scrambling to work out who carried the disease into the mundane meeting of a firm selling gas meters, which then spread to five countries from South Korea to Spain, infecting more than a dozen people.

The firm said it immediately adopted “extensive measures” to contain the virus and protect employees and the wider community. Those included self-isolation for all 109 attendees, of whom 94 were from overseas and had left Singapore.

But the virus kept spreading.

Two South Korean delegates fell sick after sharing a buffet meal with the Malaysian, who also passed the infection to his sister and mother-in-law. Three of the firm’s Singapore attendees also tested positive.

Then cases started appearing in Europe.

 While quarantine is very expensive, if these numbers are correct and the virus is easily spread with many low grade infections it is still probably cheaper to limit and contain now, rather than have to close schools and factories in a months time. With winter coming in three months in Australia it would be a huge advantage to stop the virus getting hold before the weather turns cooler.

Added up from the Worldometer page with an extra column from me to the right and below:

Country, Total Cases Change Total Change Total Serious, % “severe”
Territory (cases) Deaths (deaths) Recovered Critical
China 64,658 4,854 1,488 123 7,014 10,584
Japan 252 50 1 1 10 5 2%
Singapore 58 8 15 8 14%
Hong Kong 53 3 1 1 6 11%
Thailand 33 12 1 3%
S. Korea 28 7
Malaysia 19 1 3
Taiwan 18 1
Vietnam 16 1 7
Germany 16 1
Australia 15 8
USA 15 2 3
France 11 2 1 9%
Macao 10 3
U.K. 9 1
U.A.E. 8 1 1 13%
Canada 7 1
India 5 2 1
Philippines 3 1 2
Italy 3 2 67%
Russia 2 2
Spain 2
Sweden 1
Nepal 1 1
Sri Lanka 1 1
Finland 1 1
Cambodia 1 1
Belgium 1
Total outside China 588 67 3 85 24 4%
% 1% 14% 4%
VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.7/10 (30 votes cast)
Coronavirus -- early rates of severe cases in Hong kong and Singapore are over 10%, 9.7 out of 10 based on 30 ratings

60 comments to Coronavirus — early rates of severe cases in Hong kong and Singapore are over 10%

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    It will be interesting to see if we proportionally have the same severity and the same percentages in all countries….

    31

    • #
      PeterS

      Only time will tell but so far outside of China it’s still looking very good.

      21

      • #

        Still early days. Can someone look at the lag in other nations i.e. we want to know how far along those diagnosed cases are. When were the first infections in France / US/ Australia etc. Especially of local transmissions. If they are at the 8 – 10 days post infection and have not progressed to “severe” we might start to get some idea of risk in the Western nations. I doubt that there are enough cases in the west yet to calculate something meaningful.

        50

        • #
          Peter C

          Can someone look at the lag in other nations i.e. we want to know how far along those diagnosed cases are

          Very hard to do since information is scanty and likely restricted.

          The best case study is the Diamond Princess in Yokohama harbour, but even there we have very limited information. Most passengers are apparently locked down in their cabins (awful for those in the inside cabins), yet we no nothing about the ventilation systems on the ship. Is anyone actually studying this experiment?

          51

        • #
          scaper...

          In terms of local data, the latest information is that there remain only 15 reported cases and confirmed cases in Australia. Five, at this point, have recovered, while the remaining 10 are in stable conditions.

          I got this from the Health Minister about three hours ago. Does not correspond with the above.

          31

        • #
          GreatAuntJanet

          Still no reports from Indonesia, our very close neighbour?

          10

        • #
          Bulldust

          Something is bugging me. The number of cases versus recovered. If I am reading it correctly all four cases reported for NSW are classified as recovered. Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like cases is an historic stat which never decreases because it is a cumulative total. If so, a lot of people are going to misread that statistic.

          It would be better if they reported an additional stat which is (cases – recovered) as ‘active cases’, again assuming my assumption above is correct. I make the assumption because nowhere is the number recovered greater than the number of cases. That is possible because of the early stage of the contagion, but it could be because I am interpreting the stats correctly.

          10

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            That would give us all an idea of how many people are sick with the virus currently.
            But we also need to note that some people who are ‘recovered’ are still infecting other people. !

            00

        • #
          dinn, rob

          WHCDC hosted animals in laboratories for research purpose, one of which was specialized in pathogens collection and identification 4- 6. In one of their studies, 155 bats including Rhinolophus affinis were captured in Hubei province, and other 450 bats were captured in Zhejiang province 4. The expert in collection was noted in the Author Contributions (JHT). Moreover, he was broadcasted for collecting viruses on nation-wide newspapers and websites in 2017 and 2019 7,8. He described that he was once attacked by bats and the blood of a bat shot on his skin. He knew the extreme danger of the infection so he quarantined himself for 14 days 7. In another accident, he quarantined himself again because bats peed on him. He was once thrilled for capturing a bat carrying a live tick8.
          Surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing 4, 5. The tissue samples and contaminated trashes were source of pathogens. They were only ~280 meters from the seafood market. The WHCDC was also adjacent to the Union Hospital (Figure 1, bottom) where the first group of doctors were infected during this epidemic. It is plausible that the virus leaked around and some of them contaminated the initial patients in this epidemic, though solid proofs are needed in future study…..
          In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high risk biohazardous laboratories. Regulations may be taken to relocate these laboratories far away from city center and other densely populated places.
           
          Acknowledgements
          This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11772133, 11372116).
          Declaration of interests
          All authors declare no competing interests.
          https://www.zerohedge.com/health/smoking-gun-chinese-scientist-finds-killer-coronavirus-probably-originated-laboratory-wuhan

          00

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            There is in many European cultures a fear of bats.
            Maybe this is based on the fact that bats
            Carry viruses which are dangerous and cause life threatening diseases
            When they infect humans.
            For example in Australia we have Hendra virus.

            Years ago when I was helping out Fauna Rescue here in SA
            We got lots of info about the need to be immunised
            Against the diseases carried by Bats before handling them at all

            Meanwhile this week the local Adelaide Hills Weekender Herald
            Had a page 1 photo & article of a woman who rescues fruit bats here in the Adelaide Hills
            With a fruit bats in her arms !.
            Utterly bloody dangerous.
            Why ? t did not mention anything about the diseases they carry
            Or the need to be immunised.

            00

        • #
          PeterS

          Agree it’s too early to tell. An epidemic can take many months to turn into a pandemic. Let’s hope this is not a pandemic. Some are saying it’s already too late to try and contain the spread. If that’s true then the risk of it becoming a pandemic is high. So much is still unknown about the virus so all we are doing for now is speculating. As I keep saying only time will tell.

          10

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Seems like it’s just hitting China , if it was going to be worse it would have hit all countries its spread to by now .
      While it is deadly no question I think it’s getting more news than maybe it deserves , strange that Indonesia seem to be free of it !

      31

      • #
        Richard

        It has a long incubation period so, as Jo points out, it will be another week or two before we know if it is spreading under the radar in the West. It’s also possible that it is present in Indonesia but has not actually been diagnosed.

        90

        • #
          el gordo

          A relative just flew in from Bali to Sydney, he had a flu, but all the fellow at the gate said “have you been to China?” Then waved him through.

          He said the plane was full of Chinese wearing masks, which left him flabbergasted, so much for the current state of affairs.

          The virus was active in November and didn’t emerge from the market, the plot thickens.

          https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally

          30

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            EG Australia is still allowing Chinese citizens to enter Australia if they have been out of China for at least 14 days.
            So many are self quarantining in third countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand & the Philippines.
            The key problem with that is that Chinese citizens & residents who are carrying the virus but with no symptoms
            May go on to infect people in these third countries & Australian travellers.

            10

  • #
    Peter C

    While quarantine is very expensive, if these numbers are correct and the virus is easily spread with many low grade infections it is still probably cheaper to limit and contain now, rather than have to close schools and factories in a months time. With winter coming in three months in Australia it would be a huge advantage to stop the virus getting hold before the weather turns cooler.

    Is this a real case for the Precautionary Principle? According to Tony for OZ, the Queensland Dept of Health has set aside 3 wards in a hospital on the Gold Coast to treat cases. We apparently have quarantine setups on Christmas Is and Darwin.

    Is anything else being done?

    50

    • #
      scaper...

      Not that I know of. The facility outside Darwin is located at Howard Springs. I am sure there are contingencies in place but thus far, the authorities have handled it well.

      20

  • #

    Germany has 16 cases, none of which has progressed to severe. The first five cases were all diagnosed by Jan 28th, but how many cases were there in Germany on 4th Feb? The lag in case progression means only these early cases would be expected to have become “severe”. Oh for more data… Also bearing in mind about 32,000 in Germany – are currently suffering from flu.

    100

    • #
      scaper...

      Two Cases have been discharged from Adelaide Hospital. They were admitted late last month.

      40

    • #
      marlene

      “The new method of counting is with CT scans (computed tomography scans) of the chest. These scans are used to diagnose standard traditional lung diseases, like pneumonia. And pneumonia is called THE “coronavirus illness.” Deaths from pneumonia in China, appear to be 300,000 per year / 3 million per decade & occurred in time periods before the purported emergence of the new coronavirus. Pneumonia has been around forever. A test for ordinary pneumonia—CT Scan—now becomes a test that delivers a diagnosis of “new epidemic coronavirus.”

      Ordinary pneumonia has many causes listed in medical literature—bacteria, fungi, various viruses. You can add in massively polluted air, which hangs over major Chinese cities, such as Wuhan. No “coronavirus” needed. In the rush to diagnose as many people as possible, we have this fake method of counting cases. More grist for the propaganda mill, for inducing fear, obedience to authorities, and more profits for drug and vaccine makers. Remember, many patients diagnosed with SARS and Swine Flu didn’t have any trace of the virus either.”

      00

  • #
    Brian

    A concerning statistic is that in China over 1,716 healthcare workers have been infected, including in one hospital two thirds of the intensive care staff. Initially infection amongst medical staff would have been because no-one knew what they were dealing with when in mid December there was a cluster of what were thought to be pneumonia patients. But now the problem is a critical shortage of high protection masks, gloves and protective suits. As the trained medical staff are diluted remaining staff are overloaded and as exhaustion sets in mistakes in protection are made and one infected member having a cup of tea in the staff room can readily pass it to others. It has taken just two months to go from the unidentified patient zero to over 65,000. We may be able to slow the spread outside c=China but worldwide the quarantine is leaky.

    60

    • #
      marlene

      I read an article, then read more on the subject to be sure, that said healthcare workers treating ‘coronavirus’ patients in quarantine were coming down with the flu/pneumonia. Dangerous quarantines are the cause of many people getting sick on something other than the virus because healthy people are being sequested with those who already have symptoms.

      10

      • #
        Brian

        The 1,760 health workers I referred to have tested positive positive to Coronavirus and six have already died. I don’t know what article you are referring to but social media is littered with misleading information. The reference to dangerous quarantines reflects someone pushing a barrow. If health workers taking precautions are so vulnerable imagine if the patients were not in quarantine but sitting next to you in a mall.

        00

    • #
      marlene

      “sequestered”

      00

  • #
    Mike Jonas

    Jo asks : “Does anyone know the definition of Serious Critical?”.

    I think it must be the two standard medical terms “serious” and “critical”. ie, of people who are either serious or critical.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_state

    10

    • #

      On worldometer it has changed. The same table two days ago said “Severe” in the last column. Yesterday that said “Critical”. Today it said “Serious critical”. I think they are trying to keep up with Chinese reporting changes.

      20

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        In other words a stage beyond “Critical”
        “Seriously Critical ” = At death’s door !

        10

        • #

          I assume “serious critical” meant both serious and critical patients, not “seriously critical”.

          The label of Critical yesterday may have scared a few people and they may have backed up …. ?

          20

      • #
        Mike Jonas

        A little further up the page, worldometer says “55,956 currently infected patients / 45,345 in mild condition / 10,611 serious or critical” – so I think that “serious critical” really does mean “serious or critical”. There’s a lot of changes going on, including multiple changes of the virus’ name. Probably the classification changes have been attempts to come into line with others. It seems that “serious” and “critical” have been used generally in medicine for some time, at least in the US, so I would expect that is what is intended by them this time.

        30

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Courtesy of Musings from Chiefio : “‘There’s no doubt’: Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms”

    Long & detailed article about the transmission of the virus from Wuhan to Shanghai to Germany. All without any symptoms !

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-study/index.html

    Preventing this disease reaching Australia demands strict quarantine measures that exclude persons who have been living in areas with infections.

    30

    • #
      John PAK

      I think we’d be wise to plan for the virus spreading widely in Au cities and follow up all potential avenues to limit its effect. One possible treatment has been around for decades. Marvin Antelman Patented TetraSilver Tetroxide (Ag4O4) for treating (amonst other things) AIDS.

      My wife (SRN) used to use Silver Sulphadiazine in skin burn dressings and there are many silver compounds in use already.

      Marantech sells a number of “Electron Jumping Compounds” and I suspect they are selling Ag4O4 (Tetrasil™)as a possible treatment for coronavirus even tho’ it’s not been evaluated yet. Tetrasil selectively targets rapidly dividing organisms through multiple nano-electric discharge and also chelates with some molecules. Damage to healthy tissues seems minor. I struggle to understand how it would be effective against a virus hijacking human cells but I’m not a virologist.
      I’ve read that Dr Antelman works in Israel and has numerous patents in the field of multi-valent metallic oxides. I’ll try and contact him.

      00

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        John Colloidal Silver is readily available from Chemists ( Pharmacies ) in Australia.
        It has been used in the past for such diseases as Barmah Forest Virus etc

        00

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    From Musings of Chiefio :
    Larry Ledwick’s comment
    “Evening major update happened a while ago.
    Total Confirmed : 64,437
    Total Deaths 1,383
    Total Recovered 6,919
    Of course now we know most of those numbers we have been closely following were likely GENERATED MATHEMATICALLY RATHER THAN ACTUAL DATA.
    We now have 15 cases confirmed in USA”

    30

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    I posted this earlier today on the previous post about COVID 19.
    Just so it does not get lost I am reposting oit here now :
    “The SMH, ‘Sydney Morning Hogwash’
    Long ago mastered the art of BS & propaganda.
    Now it looks as if it’s is working
    For the Chinese Communist Party.
    To reassure us Australians that there is
    Nothing to fear in China from the Corona virus disease !
    Hogwash ! ”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/02/the-sydney-morning-sell-out-smh-journalists-and-management-bend-over-and-take-it.html?fbclid=IwRh0zsbHkKFGXhJUsD8Go41_FvX9sGaUjaewdVfrWQkZa5gAaQPa3oKx8B10

    30

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    The BBC seems to have sources in China beyond the government statistics & lies.
    More evidence of a major cover up and incompetence by the Wuhan province authorities.
    “Coronavirus Wuhan diary: ‘He got a hospital bed three hours before he died’
    What happened to two families in Wuhan
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51440129

    30

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    In other words the stage beyond “Critical”
    “Seriously Critical ”
    = “At death’s door” ?

    10

  • #
    Ljh

    If you don’t look for it, you can’t find it. China can only test 3000 people a day, the Japanese have not tested every patient on the cruise ship because of constraints on testing, how on earth are we to believe any figures. China built Africa’s main transport hub in Addis Ababa from where passengers from China transit onwards across Africa, the Middle East and Europe .

    A second unrelated point I wish I had more information on: the ACE2 Receptor which is how the virus gains access to cells to hijack its apparatus to reproduce, is well understood and there is an entire class of drugs used as treatment of choice for hypertension. Do these drugs affect the course of the disease either by upregulating the number of receptors or by competing with the virus?

    30

    • #
      WXcycles

      China can only test 3000 people a day

      The need has been great for some time so the Chinese will have scaled up their testing capacity, to the level of demand anticipated. That’s one of the highest national priorities at the moment so I think it’s safe to say they have not be sitting on their hands.

      20

    • #

      Ljh are the ACE inhibitors aimed at ACE1 or ACE2?

      00

  • #
    cedarhill

    The media hysteria burst onto the front pages on or around January 14, 2020 regarding confirmed cases outside of China. It’s now February 14, 2020 and only one person, outside of China, has died and that one was an “escapee” that flew into Manila. There are now hundreds of confirmed cases of Wuhan outside of China.

    Just about everything about the Wuhan is speculative. However, search as you will, there has never been a coronavirus that has been extremely lethal and extremely contagious. I.E., never any like the flu viruses and their add-ons. All coronaviruses have been, at best, mildly lethal and mildly contagious where the greatest at risk groups are the very young, the elderly and all with compromised immune systems.

    The yearly round of flus just keep on spreading and killing as they always do and about at the same rate as average and in the same high risk groups, with or without the flu shots.

    With the Wuhan history to date, ones should conclude government actions will not ever contain a truly lethal, highly contagious pathogen. Maybe one should convince Greta and friends to lobby for better prevention and better treatment and a universal vaccine(s).

    Meanwhile, get a grip and do what you can to protect you and your family and friends from the usual viral killers. And for the elderly, you can’t change aging so live life as it presents itself.

    41

    • #
      Richard

      What media hysteria?

      30

    • #

      Cedarhill: MERS is a coronavirus with a fatality rate of 34%.

      Fortunately, it is mostly animal–human transmission so not very contagious.

      Just because the combo of high fatality has not combined with highly contagious has not occurred in recent history is no reason to assume it can’t.

      2% fatality with Ro of 2.5 = tens of millions of deaths.

      20

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    There is some discussion about the rate of infection in SEA
    : Indonesia, Thailand, The Philippines, Malaysia etc.
    Well there is an article in the Guardian which discusses this very issue vis a vis Indonesia.
    ( NB : I post this link reluctantly as I do not generally trust the Guardian. )
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/14/indonesia-coronavirus-academic-harvard-marc-lipsitch
    But it is based on a real science report from
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495v2
    It suggests that these countries were prime destinations for Chinese tourists until January 2020. And thus significant numbers of infected carriers could have entered Indonesia. But they have a much more limited capacity to detect the disease & the virus. And therefore have far fewer cases turning up.

    40

  • #
    Platypus

    Analysis about the possible effects of the coronavirus on the global economy, provided by strategic risk consultant, F William Engdahl are worth reading.

    Historically the greatest economic depressions have started with unexpected events on the periphery of major financial markets. That was the case in May 1931 with the surprise collapse of the Austrian Creditanstalt Bank in Vienna which brought the entire fragile banking system of postwar Germany down with it, triggering the Great Depression in the United States as major US banks were rocked to their foundations.

    Earlier posts also report that nobody has been detected within our largest neighbour ~ Indonesia ~ is a huge concern.

    This data from the Johns Hopkins CSSE map in the US is also worth a look.

    60

  • #
    Roger Knights

    Wuhan Coronavirus—WUWT Update
    Guest Blogger / 3 hours ago February 14, 2020
    Guest post by Rud Istvan,

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/

    01

  • #
    jorgekafkazar

    The glories of globalism.

    00

  • #
    Claude Culross

    Have been a long time follower of your climate reports, Jo. Following your recent reports on Covid-19 from the U.S. has been fascinating. Every perspective is helpful, and I consider Australians very sensible practical people. Many thanks for the good work.

    30

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Meanwhile people are developing symptoms
    While flying on long distance passenger flights
    And being isolated on arrival at destinations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8004013/Coronavirus-chaos-Heathrow-EIGHT-planes-lockdown-runway.html
    But what about the people who were on board these planes with these ill people for hours & hours
    Sharing & breathing the same air in the planes ?

    20

    • #

      Fascinating Bill. So highlights what was the irony of panic about cruise ships compared to ambivalence about planes.

      We will run out of good quarantine facilities very fast, and as the world has discovered, cruise ships with separate cabins don’t make good quarantine facilities.

      40

  • #
    MarkMcD

    Question the antecedents of the coronavirus outbreak or suggest there’s anything awry with the situation and the MSM believers scream ‘conspiracy theory’ and start the usual tide of personal abuse and targetting.

    But the Science is suggesting the virus at the centre of the recent infections is MAN MADE! At a guess, at the level 4 biolab in Wuhan. i.e. something they developed got away from them, either accidentally or on purpose.

    This paper suggests someone used sequences from HIV to enhance the coronavirus and make it more effective in attacking humans.

    Here’s the abstract:
    “Abstract:
    We are currently witnessing a major epidemic caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
    The evolution of 2019-nCoV remains elusive.

    We found 4 insertions in the spike glycoprotein (S) which are unique to the 2019-nCoV and are not present in other coronaviruses.

    Importantly, amino acid residues in all the 4 inserts have identity or similarity to those in the HIV1 gp120 or HIV-1 Gag.

    Interestingly, despite the inserts being discontinuous on the primary amino acid sequence, 3D-modelling of the 2019-nCoV suggests that they converge to constitute the receptor binding site.

    The finding of 4 unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV, all of which have identity /similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of HIV-1 is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature.

    This work provides yet unknown insights on 2019-nCoV and sheds light on the evolution and pathogenicity of this virus with important implications for diagnosis of this virus. ”
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

    00

    • #

      This may not be as it seems.

      Deplorable Lord Kek February 1, 2020 at 10:40 am ·
      Seems pretty dubious:

      “Just checked their results. The similarity is spurious. Out of 4 inserts they identify between NCov and SARS, 2 are found in bat coronavirus. Of the remaining two, only one is most similar to HIV, and is so short (6 AA) that the similarity is not higher than chance given database”

      https://twitter.com/SKonermann/status/1223344537772290048

      10

      • #
        MarkMcD

        Yeah… I think I’ll wait for the paper that casts doubt on the results. I’m so reluctant to get my science from twitter I don’t even have an account.

        The paper is under review but NOT for spurious comparisons. I guess we wait for the revision to see if they can back their findings.

        But I think Thailand reported some success using HIV drugs.

        00

  • #
    Vensaint

    I spoke to a colleague in Shanghai yesterday. She has been confined to her home for the last 20 days. There is hardly anyone on the street in her area. Food is ordered over the internet and delivered to the gate of her community. Other than that she hasn’t been outside. CNY holidays were extended by the government for a week (last week) then she was told to stay home this week (she is able to work from home) and next week as well. At the plant she works at which is a bit further out of of the city there is some limited production. Only people who hadn’t travelled for CNY are allowed to go to work. Anyone who travelled for CNY and returned has to stay home for 14 days. Thought it was an interesting insight into life there, we’ll see if the travel restrictions get extended beyond next week.

    30

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Hi Jo, I do not know Rud Istvan …
    And have not followed WUWT much in recent times
    ( Just too much stuff to cope with )
    But I have read both his recent posts on the Corona virus disease.
    For whatever reason he puts forward a view on Corona Virus disease
    Which is much to ‘reassuring’ to my way of thinking.
    By contrast Larry Ledwick on Musings from Cheifio
    Has from the start found & presented a huge range of information & data from various sources
    Both within & without China.
    I would love for this Corona virus disease to be a non event !
    but given what has already happened in China,
    That seems very unlikely.

    00

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