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Coronavirus: And so it spreads, lock downs in Italy, South Korea, riot in Ukraine

Coronavirus, Covid-19, cases outside China. Graph.

Coronavirus, Covid-19, cases outside China.   Source JoDiGraphics

The short not-good news: It’s looking like early exponential growth outside China

The cases outside China have reached 1,500. South Korean cases leap to 156, 204, 340, mostly centred on one church and one hospital.  In China, prisoners were discovered to be infected and a 29 year old doctor has died. The first death in Italy is confirmed, cases jump from 4 to 17, and the health minister there has cancelled or closed schools, events and shops in ten towns. The Iranian death toll has risen to 4, and Iraq has closed flights to Iran. Improbably Canada’s ninth case turns out to be a woman who flew from Iran, raising the worrying possibility that the virus is spreading undetected. Lastly, panic is spreading too. There were attacks in Ukraine to stop a bus of evacuees from China for their 14 day quarantine. It was triggered supposed by an email hoax.

Wise people might like to stock up the pantry just in case. As the people in some Italian towns just found out, there may not be a lot of warning.

The extraordinary rise in South Korea:

Four days ago South Korea had 30 cases. Now, 346. Where the percentage progressing to “severe” was nought, now it’s hard to calculate. How many infections did the country really have eight days ago? Officially, South Korea had 28, and of those, supposedly now 17 have recovered, 9 have progressed to severe and of those, 2 have died. It’s shifted from being the good news outlier to the place to watch.

In South Korea many cases revolve around the Shincheonji Church which is considered to be cultlike. According to the NY Times people sit on the floor packed together, with no glasses or facemasks, they come when they are sick and are taught “not to be afraid of illness”. So the sudden freaky rise may not reflect bad luck but a kind of amplified “superspreader on steroids” visits a “virus farm in waiting”. Unfortunately the authorities can’t find about 700 of the 1,000 worshippers who were there to check them. If only patient #31 in South Korea had not turned up there with mild symptoms.

Raw twitter tales of a country in seige

On the twitter feed of  #Coronavirus (if you dare) it’s tough. There are one or two images of people jumping out of windows in China, some mass killing of farm animals, plus even footage of pet cats and dogs being killed (it’s not clear they can catch this virus, as most viruses are species specific).  It’s a warzone, and checkpoints are run with disturbing military efficiency. There are many shots of people are being forcibly dragged away by the Hazmat police. It’s a poignant kind of thing. Some of these people may not see loved ones again and if they don’t have coronavirus there would be much to fear from being incarcerated with those who do. One (see below) shows people being led in a roped long line. Another shows masses of people allegedly waiting to get their money from a bank in China. Is this the first bank run? (UPDATE Probably not — comments under it suggest it is not a bank). In others, people appear to be collapsing on trains, or sometimes in the street. It’s all unverified, and hard to know whether it’s one freak event or even a fake, but it’s a strange land. If people are going door to door to kill pets in China, it may be just a sign of a desperate (and possibly pointless) panicked reaction by some local authority? (It didn’t appear to be for food, but then, there are tweets talking about starvation.)

How many progress to “Severe”? Still 0 – 11%

Trying to track nations (or cruise ships) with an 8 day lag from diagnosis to the “severe” state has become even harder with the numbers changing so fast that estimates change by the hour.

The most meaningful early guesstimates of how many cases will need medical attention are still ranging from 0 to 11%. Hong Kong 11%; Thailand 6% Singapore 9%; Taiwan 6%. But no cases have progressed to severe in Australia, USA, Malaysia, Germany, Canada and the UK (which together had 92 cases on Feb 14th). It’s not all bad news.

The numbers matter because it not only tells us how many people might get quite sick, it also gives us some idea of how many hospital beds we might need, especially of the Intensive Care kind. Severe cases need some assistance, or supplemental oxygen and estimates are around 1 in 6 severe cases will need the ICU.

Transmission: Aerosol or not?

Chinese officials say it is spread via aerosol but the US CDC still says “droplet”. Aerosol borne viruses carry on air currents, and are much harder to contain. It would explain why the Diamond Princess disease control of standing 6 ft apart on deck was futile, as was confining people to cabins possibly with shared air conditioning. Though one US medico warns that it looks just like influenza spread – airborne.  For a month twitter has shown Chinese medical experts behaving as though it was an aerosol.

…one US infectious disease expert cautions that, overall, the epidemiologic data continue to point to airborne transmission being the driver of the COVID-19 outbreak. “It’s almost a rewrite of the influenza playbook,” said Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis.

The US CDC now lists five countries as having likely “community based spread”.

  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

Given how little is known, stopping flights to these nations would seem wise, even just for a week or two.

On the plus side, if we believe communist statistics of no fixed definition, then the worst province in China is plateauing, “peaking” and the quarantine is having some effect. Ponder how draconian and difficult it is and how long they may need to maintain it for. If they have managed to stop millions from being infected in Wuhan and surrounds, they still have a vulnerable population, and even if they could theoretically extinguish the virus in those regions — there will be the continuous threat of reinfection from other provinces and other nations. What then, a new local lock down each time one breaks out? Having given the virus to Africa, it will be difficult not to get it back in return…

Many books are going to be written about what is happening in China at the moment

We feel for the people of Wuhan. Fofllow The @EpochTimes  (some images here don’t load in Firefox.)

Barricaded homes.

Internet cut off to most affected areas


Inexplicable scenes.

[UPDATE: Reading the comments underneath this Prof Hanke's tweet, no one really knows what was happening. Were these people caught selling illegal masks? Did they break the "wear a mask" rule? Was it a mass arrest of a pyramid marketing scam? Was it the arrest of people playing poker, which apparently is now illegal during the outbreak. ] [Deleted the unlikely "bank run" tweet. Wait to see if there is any corroboration. ]  

 

The Optimistic Mantra (repeated):  Covid 19 will almost certainly be less severe outside China due to cleaner air, healthier lungs, better diets, lower population density, possibly genes (ACE2 receptor), cultural habits, more sun, better nutrition, lower rates of smoking, and better medical systems.  We also got a head-start. Estimates in China suggest 82% of people have only a mild infection, and we can still hope that the rate of mild infections turns out to be a lot higher in the West, or that some anti-virals in the multiple trials turn out to be useful and can be mass produced.

 Worldometer statistics with the % progressing to severe (underestimates)

The estimates from China of “% severe” are likely overestimates due to the lack of counting of asymptomatic infections.

The estimates from outside China are underestimates due to the 8 day lag.

Country, Total Cases New Total New Total Serious, % “severe”
Other Cases Deaths Deaths Recovered Critical
China 76,290 826 2,345 109 20,740 11,477 15%
Diamond Princess 634 2 17 27 4%
S. Korea 346 137 2 17 9 3%
Japan 110 1 1 22 5 5%
Singapore 86 47 5 6%
Hong Kong 69 2 6 6 9%
Thailand 35 19 2 6%
USA * 35 6
Taiwan 26 1 2 1 0%
Italy 22 1 1 1 6
Malaysia 22 17
Australia 21 2 11
Iran 18 4 0%
Germany 16 14
Vietnam 16 15
France 12 1 7 0%
U.A.E. 11 3 1 9%
Macao 10 6
Canada 9 3 0%
U.K. 9 8 0%
Philippines 3 1 2
India 3 3 0%
Russia 2 2
Spain 2 2
Belgium 1 1
Cambodia 1 1
Egypt 1 1
Finland 1 1
Israel 1 0%
Lebanon 1 0%
Nepal 1 1 0%
Sri Lanka 1 1
Sweden 1
Total outside China 1,525 4 11 202 26
% 1% 13% 2%
VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.2/10 (43 votes cast)
Coronavirus: And so it spreads, lock downs in Italy, South Korea, riot in Ukraine, 9.2 out of 10 based on 43 ratings

109 comments to Coronavirus: And so it spreads, lock downs in Italy, South Korea, riot in Ukraine

  • #
    Sceptical Sam

    Tyhanks Jo for the update .

    And in Australia Dan Tehan today announced that Senior high school students from China will be allowed to travel to Australia under a strict exemption announced by the Federal Government.

    Year 11 and 12 students from mainland China, excluding from Hubei province, will be considered on a case-by-case basis.

    It’s not compulsory and cases will require the support of the students’ respective States or Territories and schools.

    Apparently the Government will look to extend similar exemptions to Chinese university students next week.

    On the basis of your analysis here Jo, this action by the Government is madness.

    170

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Sam that depends on how strict they enforce
      A quarantine here in Australia
      Before such students are allowed to attend the schools of universities.

      We now have people flown home to Xmas Island from Wuhan
      Who have been in quarantine for 14 days
      With daily testing.
      And the Coronoa virus free ones are now all released and home here in Oz.

      10

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Yes Bill. True.

        But today we see a report that the incubation period may be as long as 27 days:

        https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-incubation/coronavirus-incubation-could-be-as-long-as-27-days-chinese-provincial-government-says-idUKKCN20G072?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

        So how good is 14 days when it’s possibly 50% greater?

        80

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          So how good is 14 days when it’s possibly 50% greater?

          Oops. :-)

          Or more!!!

          40

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Sam i suspect that this is wrong.
          How did they ‘exclude’ people becoming infected from a second ‘source’ for the 27 days ?
          In the current situation in China with 10′s of millions of people exposed to the virus,
          I think it far more ‘likely’ that a person was infected from another source.

          40

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            This is what the ABC says about the 27 days patient
            “A 70-year-old man in China’s Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms until 27 days later, the local government said on Saturday, meaning the virus’ incubation period could be much longer than the presumed 14 days.
            ………The man, only identified by his family name, Jiang, drove his car back on January 24 to Shennongjia, in northwestern Hubei, from eastern Ezhou, where he had close contact with his sister, who had been infected, according to the government website of Hubei, the virus epicentre.
            …..He had a fever on February 20 and tested positive for coronavirus a day later, according to the government statement. ”

            In other words he was in the Hubei province the whole time living among people who were also infected.

            40

            • #
              Salome

              In my literalist universe, it aint quarantine unless it’s 40 days.

              80

              • #

                As long as incoming people are quarantined for 14 days I’m fine with it. But is that happening?

                I’m not concerned about a couple of reports of 24 or 27 day incubations. As Bill described it’s likely there was a second exposure. In China they have no chance of tracking exposures.

                The average incubation is 3 – 5 days, and people now appear to be most infectious probably from 1 – 8 days, so 14 days covers that.

                I do worry that students catch this but are less likely to get symptoms so may spread it asymptomatically, and never get tested. I can’t imagine parents of children at the same schools as these would be happy if there was no quarantine.

                81

              • #
                Annie

                The word quarantine itself implies 40 days.
                Let’s hope the 14 are sufficient. I have my doubts, somehow. :(

                10

              • #
                Annie

                Will see if 14 days was enough to protect me and my family at an event in Melbourne a week ago?

                10

              • #

                If you are concerned, ponder that most people who were exposed and were going to catch it will show signs in the first week. So if no one in your family has symptoms at one week that’s quite encouraging. A 14 day quarantine is wise, but if say 100 people were potentially exposed and none show signs after one week, odds are none will in second week either. It’s important that we keep that 14 day quarantine, but the second week catches the long tail.

                My main concern is that if there were cases at a large event, unless there was a traceable link to a known infection the medico’s won’t tests cases of pnumonia “just in case”. The only way we will find that it is apreading is presumably a anomalous increase in unexplained pnumonia cases. ie, if they see a rise in the incidence AND they test AND they find no influenza/adeno/parainfluenza etc, only then might they start to wonder if an untraced carrier brought it in to the country.

                50

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            I think it far more ‘likely’ that a person was infected from another source.

            To clarify. You’re suggesting that he contracted the virus after leaving “eastern Ezhou, where he had close contact with his sister, who had been infected”?

            The timing would support that as a possibility. However, what’s the story in Shennongjia, in northwestern Hubei? Who had he been in contact with there? That’s the missing piece of information.

            30

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              Bill In Oz,

              A little more on this from the Thai medical site (posted late yesterday) gives no joy, in fact it outlines even more concerning information about the incubation period:

              As he had been in contact with his sister who was infected, health authorities subjected him to two nucleic acid tests in which he tested positive for the coronavirus but he appeared well and did not manifest any symptoms until the Feb 20 when developed a fever and started to exhibit the rest of the symptoms according to the government statement.

              Thailand Medical News had already published another article based on an earlier study that indicated that the incubation period could be as long as 24 days. (refer: https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/alarming-news-new-chinese-research-on-coronavirus-finds-incubation-period-of-up-to-24-days )

              Virologists are warning that even the 27 days observed time period might not be even accurate as the new coronavirus could even have an incubation periods that much longer that have yet to be clinically observed and verified.

              https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-new-coronavirus-can-incubate-for-as-long-as-27-days-before-showing-symptoms

              Not good.

              10

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                Sam I did see that report. And I am still dubious about it.
                Why ?
                Because this man was living in the ‘epicenter’ of the disease the entire time in Hubei province.
                But there NO proof that he was infected by his sister when he visited her. This is an merely assumption.
                They are assuming that he was NOT infected by another person in Hubei province long after he visited his sister. But to be accepted, that assumption must be ‘proved’.

                How ?

                Well the virus is constantly evolving. And it will have evolved over the 27 days period. In order to establish that this man was infected by his sister 27 days earlier the Chinese medical people need to establish that it is identical to the version of virus which infected his sister.

                10

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Iran update :
      Iran Coronavirus Outbreak now reached the city of Tehran, where new five confirmed cases has reported along with eight in the city of Qom, bringing the total cases nationwide to 31………Also another death from the coronavirus was reported in Qom, bring the death toll to 5 for Iran.

      https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-one-more-dead,13-new-cases,-hundreds-of-suspected-cases-all-over-iran–total-infected-now:-31,-dead:-5

      ( Does anyone know this website ? It seems to be the most up to date & accurate with hourly updates but I had no heard of it before a week ago ! )

      20

      • #
        ivan

        that site looks like a great resource

        20

      • #
        Eddie

        A great site but still rather scary/speculative with the headlines.

        If you’d like a deadpan delivery based on WHO & researched sources but still with a healthy mux of insight and scepticism Dr John Campbell has been giving several video updates a day for weeks now

        Here’s one such recent update.
        Need to watch the whole 10 minutes to get a flavour but my fave is at 9m40s
        https://youtu.be/VasccCzr2TY

        10

    • #
      TedM

      Madness, insanity, crass stupidity take your pick. They all fit the Govts. decision to bring these students in. Their has been no indication of any intended quarantine period.

      Yesterday I was sitting waiting for a train in Perth. I realised that I was sitting next to two Chinese students that by the tags on their baggage had just flown in from overseas. I didn’t see enough to tell just where they had flown from. It made me realise just how careful one will have to be when this thing finally gets out of hand here. You note, I say when, not if it gets out of hand because the writing is on the wall.

      00

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    BREAKING! SOUTH KOREA CORONAVIRUS CRISIS:
    MORE CASES IN LAST FEW HOURS,
    Infected 433,
    Dead 2,
    Critical 9,
    Suspected Cases 48,120
    One single Superspreader at work !

    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-south-korea-coronavirus-crisis:-more-cases-in-last-few-hours,-infected-433,-dead-2,-critical-9,-suspected-cases-48,120

    32

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Further thoughts
    1: Jo, I am completely bewildered by the line of tied up people on a rope. None of them are wearing face masks !! What ? Why ? And one of the guards ‘ handles’ one of the prisoners at the end of the clip. WTF ?

    2 : We have all along been puzzled the statistics from China. They felt shonky given the extraordinary character of the CCP regime response !.

    3: But maybe now with the more reliable figures coming in from South Korea we are seeing the truth about how fast this virus can spread completely unseen and unknown by super spreaders who are immune or almost immune.

    4 : Now would indeed be a huge good ‘explanation’ for the Chinese government draconian lock downs in Wuhan & elsewhere in China !. The complete lock down stops all spreading by confining everyone including the super spreaders to their homes..And if in the process people die, for the Chinese Government, “So be it – the disease is stopped ! “.

    60

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      But yet Bill we have their ABC reporting:

      “Professor Murphy said allowing a small number of people in from mainland China would not pose a significant risk.

      ‘The good news in the last few weeks from mainland China has been that there have been very, very few exported cases of this disease from mainland China — the last official count I saw was only about six,’ he said.”

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-22/coronavirus-ban-lifted-students-travel-china-to-australia/11991292

      Is that an accurate statement, I wonder?

      If it isn’t, then it’s negligent.

      100

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        I always read the ABC’s reporting with skepticism.
        The public funded ABC has published nothing so far
        About the developing situation in South Korea !
        I suspect they are all still at the pub celebrating
        After the climate change demo in Sydney today.

        111

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Sunday morning 9.00 am
          I just checked the ABC Just in News on line.
          Still nothing about the developing situation in South Korea.
          We reading here are ahead of the curve.
          ( And No, I did not read a single article !
          That’s how relevant the ABC has become )

          30

      • #
        Enoch Root

        Professor Murphy? The “Murphy’s law” Murphy?

        10

        • #
          sophocles

          The Murphy’s Law Murphy is reputedly (hearsay is remarkably accurate — NOT) a NASA engineer from the Mercury and maybe the later Apollo campaigns. Of course, there is no guarantee at all, nor any money-back promise, that this absolutely accurate, true, and unshakeably honest.

          I took it with several square-mouthed shovelfuls of salt myself but I can’t resist passing it along
          <bwg>

          10

          • #
            Brian

            In fact he was a USAF Major during the rocket sled experiment who designed a strain-gauge accelerometer able to withstand the and measure the deceleration of the sled when it encountered the water chute. The accelerometer was duly fitted to the sled, off it went but at the end of the trial it measured zero. Major Murphy was summoned to explain why his accelerometer had not performed. It had two input wires and these had been mis-connected. Murphy apparently stated something along the lies of “if there are two ways to fit something you guys will get it wrong very time”. That was the first iteration of Murphy’s law which morphed into “What can go wring will” and other variations. I used to use the example as an into teaching reliability and failure mode analysis.

            20

        • #
    • #
      David A

      Agreed with all thoughts Bill. In particular I consider that South Korea may be a reflection of honest reporting. We will see how long that lasts. The 47 k suspected is massive, and what percentage of that is positive will be very informative.

      40

  • #
    Brian

    Yet again China has changed the protocols for declaring infection. Remember the massive rise in one day? Now they have reverted to the requirement for laboratory rather than clinical diagnosis. So the numbers have slumped purely due to the delays in getting tests through an overwhelmed system. Personally I believe the genie is out of the bottle and the next disaster will be Africa. But regardless the government is now permitting university students to enter direct from China. Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad.

    120

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Yes. it doesn’t add up.

      Wuhan is reportedly building another 19 makeshift hospitals to receive infected patients:

      http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2020/2020-02-22-gt-wuhan.png

      The Chinese Communist Party is trying to create the illusion that the Coronavirus outbreak is under control and the economy will soon bounce back from the brief interruption.

      Looks like the Australian Government has been sucked in by their (the CCP’s) propaganda.

      This is getting serious.

      100

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        The full report:

        “Upon their completion, all the makeshift hospitals in Wuhan are expected to offer 30,000 beds on Feb. 25, said Hu Yabo, deputy mayor of Wuhan at a press briefing on epidemic prevention and control.

        To date, Wuhan has converted 13 existing venues into temporary hospitals, with a total of 13,348 beds, and about 9,313 beds have been put into use to treat patients with mild symptoms, said Hu.

        To improve their medical treatment capability, every makeshift hospital will be supplied with CT scanners and other medical equipment including ECG monitors, Hu added.

        About 72 medical teams from other regions of China have been dispatched to these temporary hospitals to aid local colleagues to treat patients and contain the virus spread.

        The total number of confirmed cases in hard-hit Wuhan has reached 45,346 as of Thursday.”

        https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1180377.shtml

        40

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I am starting to think the chinese reaction makes sense if its highly infectious to SE Asian populations, and, regardless however unpopular my view is -that westerners seem to mostly suffer predominately mild infections.

          Impact on the west may be more damaging from unsubstantiated or over cautious panic tgan from the actual disease itself.

          The impact on SE Asian populations my be significant, however my personal theory is that the chinese likely are also severely worried about loss of govt control, and/or loss of trade due to western concern about china and illness, hence the draconian “hunt and quarantine” measures in place.

          Now add in severe loss of face over the uncontained HK riots.

          I am not ruling out the fall of the chinese govt over this.

          The longer this goes on, the longer the younger genrations who have likely had enough, may tell Beijing to go jump. Living under brutal communist supression is one thing, having family members dragged out of your home kicking and screaming is quite something else.

          Interesting times…for china.

          40

  • #
    DaveR

    Madness taking hold in Australia. Under pressure from educational institutions, the federal government is going to relax travel restrictions and also release people from quarantine after 14 days. Meanwhile the new news is the incubation period may be 27 days.

    Well Ministers Hunt and Tehan, its your careers right here, right now.

    100

  • #
    Richardw

    According to comments in the bank run twitter feed, the building is not a bank. It is a town hall or police station, or something along those lines.

    20

  • #
    PeterS

    I’m hearing stories that China is forcing their workers back to factories. If so it appears they are willing to sacrifice people’s lives for money. Not surprising.

    50

    • #
      Watcher of the road

      I think forcing workers back to work in such a situation would be a crime against humanity. But then China can get away with murder, literally. Imagine a western democracy doing that?

      20

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I would guess the govt fears being toppled by internal insurrection due to unhappy citizens…..forcing people back to work keeps the cash flowing to multinational companies and people fed…humans appear to be expendable….but it is communism so no surprises there…

      30

  • #
    cedarhill

    When things settle down, one hopes that a “lessons learned” include a method to screen travelers with simple, quick and highly accurate testing be it breathe, urine, fecal or blood. Pinpricks, ala glucose testing for diabetics, would be ideal?
    If this exercise where the world has been whipped up into a virus fearing frenzy is any indication, governments are just too slow, mostly ineffective and down right incompetent to use the current methods to do much more than scare people. Meaning it remotely possible they may have somewhat slowed down the spread but by no means would they have ever controlled a virus like the 1900′s pandemic.

    50

  • #
    Andrew McRae

    The first death in Italy is confirmed, cases jump from 4 to 17,

    Worldometer just updated their page to say the cases in Italy doubled in one day and there’s now 50 there total.

    I was ready to declare victory on Friday as it had been 14 days since the last new case was discovered in Australia, not counting the Diamond Princess since they are quarantined.
    Now all these cases are springing up outside China and the outlook suddenly doesn’t look so hopeful.
    The travel restrictions are only on China. Now we find “Fortress Australia” is full of holes, and we don’t know how many for another 14 days. Reset the counter, take down the balloons, and reschedule the victory party for 8 March.

    50

  • #
    Aussie Pete

    Couple of questions I haven’t seen addressed,
    1/ If it is species specific, how did humans catch it? If humans got it from an animal(s) why wouldn’t animals get it from humans (pets, etc)
    2/ There surely would be more than one point of origin?
    Jo has done an amazing job keeping us informed, sorry if this has been covered elsewhere but it is hard to keep up.

    40

    • #
      Watcher of the road

      Some years ago National Geographic had a main article about how viruses are ‘created’ in the far East. Poor people live together with chicken and pigs, which according to the writer is the perfect virus factory. A common virus infects the three species without any harm at all, or minor symptoms. The virus mutates with time, even without any harm at all, until a bad mutant develops and flies at a tangent hitting that close, poor community and then the rest of the world.

      60

  • #
    Watcher of the road

    Italy has reported its second death and a voluntary lockdown in a Northern Italy town. So now its 2 deaths in Italy.

    40

  • #

    Again, to say % severe is misleading, since the total cases are no doubt being drastically understated.

    Daily number of deaths, from Feb. 12 to now: 4 days above 125, 6 days under
    Daily deaths growth factor: 7 days at or below 1, 3 days above.
    If it stays consistently below 1, this means it is approaching zero.

    Both show a downward trend.
    Infectious yes. Virulent not particularly.

    52

    • #

      Yes, as I keep repeating, we really don’t know. There is huge mismatch here — outside China in 92 Western cases (and we don’t know the ethnic mix of those patients) none were classed as “severe”. But China’s reaction is totally unjustified by a mere 2000 deaths. There are individual stories like one doc yesterday who said in his first 8 days working with coronavirus, not one person survived. Things got a bit better the second week….

      Just the odds in big country… but unnerving.

      50

    • #
      Leo G

      Jo’s Worldometer” statistics imply a mortality rate of 10.2% (of the 30% (23,085) of cases that are finalised).

      00

  • #
    Watcher of the road

    I have always believed in auto-sufficiency of food supplies and medicine for such an eventuality. Apparently the US had foolishly outsourced most of its medicinals to China, but at least its self sufficient in food and also in oil, gas and coal. Australia is also self sufficient in food and oil and gas and coal, although not in refineries. You must get your refineries back, for all Aussies’ sake and for my very close relatives living in the western suburbs of Sydney. And how I love travelling in that beautiful great land of yours when I’m visiting (about every two years).

    50

  • #
    Watcher of the road

    I have always believed in auto-sufficiency of food supplies and medicine for such an eventuality. Apparently the US had foolishly outsourced most of its medicinals to China, but at least its self sufficient in food and also in oil, gas and coal. Australia is also self sufficient in food and oil and gas and coal, although not in refineries. You must get your refineries back, for all Aussies’ sake and for my very close relatives living in the western suburbs of Sydney. And how I love travelling in that beautiful great land of yours when I’m visiting (about every two years).

    20

  • #
    Meglort

    On the upside, apparently the world was ending due to galaxial frying in about 8 years. With China using only about 20% of their power at the moment does this mean that we have an extension?

    It would not surprise me one bit if this was started by the climate hoaxer crowd either or those worrying about the greying population and increasing pension and healthcare costs. Selectively targeting the old and the sick it seems…

    Could explain why the MSM has been negligent in reporting on it and why the WHO has literally held the door open for the horse to bolt. And bolt it certainly has.

    The pandemic we had to have as Keating would say.

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      el gordo

      “The recession we had to have”

      It looks like a recession is unavoidable, if the pandemic goes on much longer.

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      • #
        Meglort

        Agree. The western world is sleep walking into chaos. Personally, I think worse than recession.

        With the endless petty politics and celebrity soap operas still playing out on the front pages in AU, UK and US…and in parliaments.

        Rather than preparing, heads seem to be stuck firmly in dark places with collective myopia, stupidity and misplaced priorities driving our society. Interesting times.

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        • #
          OriginalSteve

          You only have to look at the number of legal class actions now against stare govts over the apparent lack of fire management practices and subsequent fire storms, to see how deep the rot goes……

          Head firmly in sand seems to be default position.

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    • #
      RickWill

      With China using only about 20% of their power at the moment does this mean that we have an extension?

      China produced 654TWh of electrical energy in December 2019. Have you got any reference that shows it was down to 130TWh in January 2020; a reduction of 524TWh for the month?

      This 14th February forecasts states electricity production would be down by 78TWh for the entire year:
      https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/power-china-energy-demand-falls-virus-hits-factories-200214061808709.html
      A long way short of the 6,288TWh reduction if they were down to 20%.

      Iron ore is yet to take a price hit as of Thursday last week so the Chinese economy must be mostly up and running after their New Year extended break. Coal prices fell towards the end of last year but there has been no change from that low so far in 2020.

      China uses about 25% of the total global energy. If its economy slumped by 80% then we would expect to see the world economy drop to about 50% of present levels as China is the OEM parts supplier to the world. In that case there would be no net increase in atmospheric CO2 for that year.

      The coronavirus appears to have potential for massive economic impact but so far it is not showing in any economic data. Those on the ground in hospitals, tourism, and education in Australia are no doubt already seeing impacts. I know a few people who have cancelled bookings for overseas travel for this year. Popular Chinese tourist destinations like Thailand are saying they are already in a desperate situation.

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      • #
        Meglort

        Coal consumption at power plants graph…sorry my bad..is about 40% give or take.
        If you take this as fact.

        https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-disintegrating-steel-demand-property-sales-traffic-all-approaching-zero

        Think this is what I was remembering poorly.

        Agree the markets have been weird to say the least, especially commodities.

        Nothing much is clearing ports in China – if ships can even dock which I am hearing through our folks over there, they are not at the moment. Not much going on at all is what I am hearing and not exactly up and running. Kind of fake it until you make it.

        My opinion is that the markets were pricing in this being a bit of a dip in Q1 with a rebound in Q2 and trusting on the public data, WHO saying it is just the flu and the desire for the GDP thing to keep on chugging away to pull it over the line.

        However if people can believe that a ~100 PPM trace gas change can change the climate without evening considering compensating controls and that with a geological record showing extremes of cooling and heating of which we are in the middle of one…are outright imbeciles. So the world is full of imbeciles that believe in fantasy and make financial decisions based on it these days.

        It is looking like the full production rebound by April is another fantasy to me. I did just note though that nCov has made it to the front page of their ABC today…

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Cynically amusing :-)

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  • #
    Watcher of the road

    I don’t trust any tyrant with statistics, Xi Jinping included. While hoping that the Chinese people will eventually dodge the collective coronavirus bullet, I’m afraid that 1.4 billion people can be hit badly, very badly, statistically speaking, with this virulent nano-monster. I hope I’m wrong.

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    dinn, rob

    what chemical is China mass spraying?
    2-22-20 from the Daily Star:
    State-run media reported at least 135 animals were found dead in one discovery near the city of Chongqing.
    At least 17 species were found to have died – including wild boar, weasels, and a number of birds. The Chinese press reports that Chongqing has mobilized a force of 5,300 forest rangers to monitor wildlife in the area, and have also enlisted a force of 200 “full-time supervisors” https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hundreds-animals-drop-dead-china-after-being-poisoned-disinfectant
    …………………………..
    2-21-20 Chinese authorities have admitted they have discovered mass animal deaths in the epicentre of the outbreak Hubei province. Communist Party officials have blamed the deaths on massive disinfecting efforts carried out by Chinese authorities.
    Videos have previously been released showing trucks driving around coronavirus hit cities spraying huge plumes of toxic liquid to kill the infection….
    Authorities have also insisted the animals have not died due to the coronavirus, or any other disease due to bird flu. https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/hundreds-animals-mysteriously-drop-dead-21547076
    ………………….….
    remote-control operated mini tanks to disinfect city streets— “We began using them for disinfection and disease-prevention in Taiyuan on Feb. 4,” said Hou Yongei, deputy secretary-general of the Shanxi Province Unmanned Vehicle Association, per an AsiaWire report. “They were used to disinfect prisons and other high-security environments. Now, twice a day, we send them into gated communities where there have been confirmed cases.”
    Hou said using the tanks cuts down the risk of transmission between workers and infected patients. https://www.foxnews.com/health/mini-tanks-disinfect-coronavirus-hit-areas-china.amp?cmpid=prn_newsstand
    …………………..
    ag drones also spraying: https://www.healtheuropa.eu/xag-introduces-drone-disinfection-operation-to-fight-the-coronavirus-outbreak/97265/
    ………………………
    Dave says
    11 February, 2020 at 12:24 pm But, I don’t know if anyone has studied Chinese crematoriums, and I don’t even know if anyone knows at what temperature the virons will be denatured. Based on the amount of Sulfur Dioxide being reported over Wuhan, there’s a LOT of burning of some Sulfur containing material going on. Or, could the spraying be an attempt to reduce the Sulfur Dioxide concentration in the air of Wuhan?
    Druid says:
    11 February, 2020 at 1:24 pm
    Vaporized hydrogen peroxide is effective for decontaminating equipment, rooms, hospitals and aircraft, against a wide range of pathogens including viruses
    Yohanan Weininger says:
    11 February, 2020 at 1:30 pm
    A slight chlorine spray was reportedly effective in this 2015 Japanese veterinary study on Newcastle and chicks.
    Aerosol Disinfection Capacity of Slightly Acidic Hypochlorous Acid Water Towards Newcastle Disease Virus in the Air
    Glen Weaver says:
    11 February, 2020 at 1:34 pm
    Virosil (product of Sanosil) is applied by foggers, and it rated as virucidal. Around 10% H2O2 and .01% silver nitrate. Per manufacture “The combination of the two elements form a complex solution which kills all forms of bacteria, viruses, spores including Staphylococcus aureus, Aspergillus niger, Salmonella, Pseudomonas, MRSA & H5N1 virus.”
    Foggers were part of US Army BW decon equipment in the 1970s
    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/02/11/antiviral-theatrics

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    Brian

    One thing that ensures the continued spread of the virus is that a percentage of recovered patients remain infectious. For my part I find it difficult to understand why infectious patients are being taken out of tight quarantine and flown to their home States. Why? This puts the crew of the aircraft in jeopardy for both airborne and tactile transmission. I note that there has been no mention of how the patients will be quarantined on arrival but I take little comfort from the statement that they have only mild symptoms (I would think that all would at the beginning) and that if the symptoms get worse they can enter their State health system. The virus may have been contained in Australia but that is no reason to make every effort to reverse that situation by opening travel to he infected or students travelling direct from China.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Brian I gather that all infected persons in the quarantine camp in Darwin
      Are being flown to their home state
      For treatment while in quarantine in hospital.
      This is being done to avoid overloading the Darwin & NT hospital system.
      And probably reflects their inability to handle such patients.
      Meanwhile I suggest that the medical staff & airline staff moving these patients
      Will be taking every precaution needed to avoid becoming infected themselves or further spreading this virus.

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I work in IT…our default fall back is self isolation at home for as long as required.

        Any issues australia faces will be likely due to govts being over cautious and subsequent human resource/ cashflow interruptions.

        I would suggest a couple of weeks of canned food in your pantry just in case, just being pragmatic….

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    • #
      DaveR

      Brian, it seems the world is now talking about aerosol transmission and perhaps a 27 day incubation period, whereas Australia’s quarantine policies are based on droplet transmission and 14 day incubation period.

      What could possibly go wrong?

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  • #
    Chad

    Unless i am mistaken, the deaths this outbreak is a tiny fraction of the annual deaths from other “common” Flu strains ?…
    ..so why all the fuss ?

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Yes, you are mistaken Chad !

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      • #
        Chad

        What are the figures then Bill ?

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        • #
          Meglort

          R0 of between 4-7.
          Asymptomatic for up to 27 days (perhaps) and contagious.
          Serious re-infection complications suspected.
          ~5% requiring ICU often from Cytokine flood reactions.
          >15% serious requiring hospitalisation.
          No stats on viroid clearing during recovery (usually 2-3 weeks).
          Faecal spreading.
          AU DoH saying 3% CFR, and based on the 60-80% potential infection level is ~500,000 dead in AU. Just like the flu right?

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          • #
            sophocles

            I’ll keep my vitamin D topped up.

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          • #
            Chad

            You are sounding like the CAGW crowd !
            Lots of predictions and forecasts..
            …( dont tell me some one has run a “model” to foretell the numbers ?)
            How about sticking to the facts..
            .. EG,..last year 500-600,000 people died from Flu related symptoms..
            ….60,000+ in the USA alone .
            And that is even with vaccines to limit the toll.
            Maybe this virus is much worse,..but you cannot say that from the results so far.

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        • #
          Brian

          The death rate for flu in the US is 0.001 Chad. The lions share of those deaths are due to pre-existing conditions and pneumonia combined with age. In the past pneumonia was known as the old mans friend. But the transmissibility and death rate for this virus frightens China enough for them to completely lock down near 50 million people. The Spanish flu disrupted, in fact nearly bought down a far more robust civilisation than our own fragile construct. That is why all the fuss.

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    • #
      Aussie Pete

      Chad, I think it is because there is no vaccine for this one.

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    • #

      Flu kills about 0.01% – many people have some immunity in the population — we have known antivirals and some vaccines — so most flu’s cannot possibly infect all of the population in a season. This is a new virus, death rate is ? who knows — anything from 0.3% – 3%. One early study of 504 cases found an 8% death rate.

      In China 3% (of known cases) need an ICU (plus 15% need a hospital). We have an ICU for 1 person in 12,000 not 1 person in 33. It’s that disparity which matters. What do we do when we have 10,000 people needing 2,000 ICU beds. That is a no-fun choice. Death rates in the west may be very low if we can give every patient who needs it an ICU bed. All bets are off if that stops happening. It’s the black swan, unpredictable, normal rules don’t apply situation.

      Wuhan apparently is building 30,000 bed hospitals. They clearly expect to have and ongoing rollover of 30,000 people sick all at the same time.

      Look in to the dark abyss of exponential growth and you will understand why medical experts are very concerned about the small numbers at the moment.

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      • #
        golfsailor

        The death rate right now from all cases, (as reported from china), is 9.61%, today. This has been going down from the start Feb 4th, (35%). However, the numbers seem strange. For example, in 4 days severe cases jumped from 13 to 20% in 4 days, and has stayed almost constant since. Now at 21.74% of all known ongoing cases. Outside China this is pretty steady about 5% !

        My take is we will only know 1. how fast this spread from a) Japan, b) South Korea c) Italy and Singapore. So I keep track of the numbers outside China. It’s interesting. Severe cases about 5% from day one, (Feb 17th).

        Death rate now slowly going down, mostly depending on data from China. The percent rate outside China is now 7.43% going up from 2.86% 5 days ago. If this percentage should not raise above the Chinese figure but that look possible today.

        We have so far a best guess of death rate 7-9% from all cases with an ending. We also have about 20% of all cases including China becoming Severe or Critical. However outside China this number so far is about 5% indicating number of cases in China is more likely 300.000 right now.

        Even more concerning is the ability to spread. With this rates, and second and third round cases, this is worse than the plague and we have something ahead we can’t imagine. This also make the Chinese methods understandable. Wuhan now seem to be without internet.

        If we want to stop this, we will have to use draconian measures. Interesting which country and which politicians have the guts. Beside the Chinese. Chinese people now think the Chinese government is the only one that actually can handle this. About 50% also think this virus is made in America and set free in Wuhan. Amazing what censoring the internet and punishing resistance of the ruling party is achieving with peoples minds.

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        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          golfsailor,

          Where do your figures come from?

          Got a link?

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          • #
            golfsailor

            Now we have this outside China : (Yesterday)

            http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
            and
            gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

            Cases outside China
            New Cases Recovered
            Severe Severe % Death Death Rate of Resolved cases
            Total (Open cases) Death / (Recovered + Death)

            897 170 40 5.54% 5 2.86%
            1031 134 185 39 4.64% 6 3.14%
            1148 117 200 47 5.00% 8 3.85%
            1273 125 216 47 4.49% 11 4.85%
            1523 250 236 53 4.17% 15 5.98%
            1837 314 249 76 4.85% 20 7.43%

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    Brian

    There are a couple of interesting figures in that table. Iran has only declared 18 cases but has 4 deaths and none recovered. That is a 22% death rate or if the more correct deaths as a ration of patients with an outcome (recovered or dead) 100%. The Philippines have a 33% death rate regardless of method. Since Iran’s health care system has been rated as “excellent” by UNICEF there seems more to this than simple availability of intensive care.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Iran is suffering from a severe Winter ( Global Cooling ? )
      The Philippines is in the tropics…

      All the countries where people have died or been critically ill from COVID 19 are in the midst of SEVERE cold Winters.
      But tropical countries & Southern hemisphere Summer areas, have had no deaths !

      This may be why we are seeing so few cases in Africa or South America.

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      • #
        Brian

        I suspect that like Iran Africa will suddenly find infections all over the place. While ambient temperatures may or may no reduce the change of infection why would it impact the death rate in a country like Iran with good, warm intensive care facilities?

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  • #
    noisemarine

    I find the 6 new cases among the Diamond Princess returnees interesting. My understanding was they tested negative in Japan prior to boarding the plane home. This shows there’s some lag between infection and testing positive. Obviously the additional quarantine period is prudent. On the other hand, apparently Japan was letting people with negative tests return to the community.

    Also, we’ve been talking about Chinese links with Africa. I must be missing something but I don’t see any African cases on the WHO map. Can we really believe they are case free when even Finland and Sweden have cases?

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    • #
      DaveR

      noisemarine, that is a very shrill canary that up until now, the assumed asymptomatic period of 14 days is too short, and the 27 days suggested by the Chinese is more likely to be correct.

      Unfortunately what it means is the Diamond Princess repatriations back to Australia, USA and other places have been premature, and are probably spreading the infection back to those countries.

      The moment these different transmission dynamics were suspected, a more highly cautious approach to the spread should have been adopted.

      The announced relaxation of travel bans on Chinese students returning to Australian schools should be reversed immediately.

      After all, there is no danger from asymptomatic but contagious students sitting in a classroom, is there?

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      • #

        DaveR I’m not concerned about the Diamond Princess repatriations. A bigger risk are all the flights to Australia from Bali, Ethiopia, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan…. etc.

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        • #
          DaveR

          Jo, I agree as well. Flights, shipping, repatriations may all be bringing it in, especially if that asymptomatic period is 27 days for healthier people, and even longer for some children.

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      • #
        golfsailor

        Agree. This virus seem to be able to survive up to nine days on a surface. With incubation of 10 days, that’s at least 18 days. Add the 4 days and another week for safety and the quarantine should be 29 days at the very least. The old definition of quarantine being 40 days is not bad. Better safe than sorrow.

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Well, look at that. The Chinese Communist Party’s propaganda rag finally admits what I’ve said for a month: coronavirus didn’t start in Wuhan food market. So where did it originate? Time for answers from CCP. https://t.co/UTvcjvrHNz

    — Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) February 22, 2020″

    Via

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/02/22/its-probably-nothing-55/

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  • #
    DonS

    Hi Jo

    With infected people in China being treated like criminals, bound and paraded through the streets, is it any wonder that the infection rate is supposedly falling in China? How many who get sick are keeping to themselves and hiding from the authorities? I know I would. The CCP governor of Wuhan demands no new cases be reported and surprise surprise the infection rates suddenly drop. It’s an illusion perpetrated by congenital liars.

    Still I don’t think that hinting at people to stock up on supplies is particularly helpful. Panic will only make things worse for all of us. Logic and reason must be kept intact if we are to overcome this, or any other, problem.

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    • #

      Completely agree with the statistics which is why I don’t discuss the official Chinese numbers much.

      As to preparedness v panic, surely if all our homes would be better with a stocked pantry then if 1% of the population does that early it will spread the demand? Probably better if 10% did? Panic happens when people are not prepared. I would think if we all wait for official notice with a few hours warning that’s when the shelves empty and the shops have no time to restock. Bearing in mind of course that there may not be a quarantine, hopefully, no need for one. In which case, as I said, only buy things you’ll use anyway.

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    Konrad

    The virus is now spreading at “The Speed of Stupid”. In comparison the speed of 747 appears glacial.

    Weeks late, Chinese doctors have finally thought to do fecal and urine tests, and detected the virus in samples. Who would have guessed?! It’s not like the ACE2 receptor has its highest expression in the kidneys or small intestine or anything …

    But Australia is determined not to fall behind China. Armed with the information from the UK superspreader, we know that people with low ACE2 expression can harbor and spread the virus without experiencing illness. So the Australian government has decided to open our borders to younger Asian students from the hot zone. Younger Asians will have lower ACE2 expression than Asian adults. Even better, university’s have more people in close contact than a cruise ship, with many students working part time in food preparation.

    When it comes to the “Speed of Stupid”, China is no longer in a one nation race.

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    • #
      DaveR

      If that is right Konrad, then we will be allowing infectious asymptomatic and deferred symptom, low ACE2 receptor children back into classrooms around the nation. I’m not sure there are many other nations that have such a high Chinese student population temporarily learning in another nation such as Australia.

      Caution would suggest travel bans should continue as this is looked at urgently, but it seems Ministers Hunt and Tehan are not taking any specialist medical advice on this, or at least none is mentioned.

      As I have said above, Hunt and Tehan’s political careers are on the line, right now.

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      • #
        Konrad

        Dave, the problem is that the are taking “specialist medical advice” and this is why they are making dangerous decisions. The medical profession has developed a number of problems relating to professional culture that are particularly dangerous at this time. These problems effect their decision making when action is needed before full information is available. Military and engineering people know how to act in those situations, doctors don’t.

        (I will attempt to explain more fully in a later post).

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    David Maddison

    Apparently it’s a practise in Chinese labs to sell “used” laboratory animals to street food vendors.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

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  • #
    Brian

    From the latest update a few countries are losing control. Since China has again changed the way they report cases (clinical diagnosis now rejected and laboratory testing required)I have little faith in their figures. But even their latest report shows the death rate to be over 3% of total cases. But outside China the virus has a hold.
    South Korea 62% increase in one day.
    Italy 73% increase in one day.
    Iran 38% increase in one day and now up to 6 deaths.

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  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Ref.

    “In early 2019, a publication from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) estimated a range of 99 000 to 200 000 annual deaths from lower respiratory tract infections directly attributable to influenza ”

    Total corovid deaths plus critical so far about 14,000.
    From this an annual projection might be 85,000.
    It’s got an expanding trajectory so this may increase.

    KK

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  • #
    Bill In Oz

    We have built up an industry here in Australia
    Providing education to Chinese students.
    The Industry is exerting pressure to avoid this market collapsing
    because of visa restrictions due to the Corona Virus disease in China

    It is a powerful industry.
    And no doubt behind the scenes it has been lobbying the government
    To allow it’s students in China to come back here !

    And it seems Australia is not alone in this.
    The same problem exists in the UK, the USA, Canada, South Korea & even Thailand.

    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/chinese-students-could-be-the-next-disease-vectors-to-help-spread-the-coronavirus-globally-warns-experts-current-death-toll-as-claimed-by-china-2441

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  • #
    Konrad

    I understand the frustration of Jo and other readers. We have the knowledge and technology to stop this virus dead in its tracks, even without an effective rapid testing or vaccine. Just how is it possible that this virus running out of control in Australia now seems all but inevitable?! Why are we intentionally sailing into the perfect storm of Stupid?

    Politicians are venal self interested drones desperate to avoid politically difficult decisions. Tourism operators and fee dependant schools just want their money. In this equation they can be considered “Rude mechanicals”. The problem here is medical professionals.

    Doctors are not stupid, but they can be foolish and arrogant. They know they often get it wrong. (This is what the risky “Overwork the intern until they make a mistake” game is all about. It teaches interns they are not infallible and how to act “appropriately” when other doctors make mistakes). But doctors don’t like the public knowing they often make mistakes.

    In the past, doctors had to diagnose on available symptoms. Modern diagnostic tools now reduce the risk of error, but this leads to a blowout in pathology costs and “analysis paralysis”.

    The problem here is the medical profession’s cry “We need more tests”, “We need more data” is enabling politicians to make the spineless “We don’t have anything to say that measure is needed at this time” non-decision they so desperately crave.

    But to stop this virus in Australia, we don’t need more data. We do need doctors to admit they have zero knowledge about how a Coronavirus that has been altered in the lab will evolve. Then we need to act on that lack of knowledge.

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    golfsailor

    Why calculate death rate from total known cases ? That way you will only get very low rate that will not reflect what is going on. Each known case have only two outcomes. 1. Death or 2. Recovered. An accurate Death rate is Deaths / (Deaths + Recovered cases).

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    • #
      LightningCamel

      That is true on the face of it but, although we may have a reasonable handle on the death count, the “Recovered” number is still ptetty much a mystery. Numerous people assert that the Chinese are under reporting and we have basically no idea of the number who are not presenting for testing or treatment. The actual death rate will likely fall somewhere between the two ratios you mention.

      Just to add spice to the mix, there are a few reports of relapses, often involving heart failure in people classed as recovered. Possible explanations given are false negative tests, reinfection or heart damage from antivirals. There is a new report on the Thaihealth site about this but this seems mostly a rehash of previous reports so does not add a lot to the confidence in this information.

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      • #
        golfsailor

        The actual mortality will fall when we have a way to cure this thing and a vaccine. Until then the only way is quarantine long enough and the mortality will stay at d/(d+r). If the now developed vaccine in Texas is working this will hopefully end by next year. Until then better be prepared and not sold fairy tales.

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    • #
      Chad

      Why calculate death rate from anythin other than a known base number. ?….total population !
      That is how the 0.01% death rate figure we have for “conventional” flu is derived, so we should be doing similar calculations for CV19

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    Eddie

    These numbers are only the tips of some much larger icebergs as Italy shoots up to 155 cases with a still unknown spreader at large

    “Police are patrolling 11 towns – mostly in the Lombardy region, where the first locally transmitted case emerged – that have been in lockdown since Friday night. The latest victim died in the Lombardy city of Cremona.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/italy-draconian-measures-effort-halt-coronavirus-outbreak-spread

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  • #
    Eddie

    These numbers are only the tips of some much larger icebergs as Italy shoots up to 155 cases with a still unknown spreader at large

    “Police are patrolling 11 towns – mostly in the Lombardy region, where the first locally transmitted case emerged – that have been in lockdown since Friday night.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/italy-draconian-measures-effort-halt-coronavirus-outbreak-spread

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    cedarhill

    China is a very big nation. Small rates become huge numbers. For example, conservative numbers from various sources/reports peg about 9,000,000 (nine million) Chinese die each and every year. And it’s difficult, according to WHO, to know the exact number due to, well, it’s China. Anyway,

    That works out to about 24,600 deaths per day. And just in a normal year.

    The Wuhan virus, so far, would account for about 1/10th of 1 days death total.

    Meanwhile, in the US, the CDC recently announced that 54 children, so far this year, have died of influenza B.

    Perspective.

    Meanwhile, billions are being made during this round induced “panic pandemic”, as, of course, usually happens. I hope no one has panicked and are selling into these sell-offs. Buying is your best panic-driven strategy today.

    00