JoNova

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Corona Virus update — can we stop the pandemic?

The latest news coming out is mixed. The live map and latest count of 2019-nCoV shows 20,000 confirmed infections, 426 deaths, and most importantly, a spread to 28 countries. It’s slightly encouraging that there are no extra cases in Australia and good to hear 3 of the 12 have been sent home, declared “recovered”. However the incubation period since flights were closed is still only halfway to the average (of 5 – 6 days) so it’s too early to tell.

A South Korean has tested positive after visiting Thailand (not a good sign, but the statement didn’t “rule out China”). Japan has quarantined a whole cruise ship (like Italy did). One passenger came down with the virus in Hong Kong. The whole ship of 3700 is confined to rooms, awaiting test results. It’s reassuring that so many tests can be done.  (Yay, Japan). Meanwhile door handles can carry the virus. Soap and hand sanitizer could help a lot.

On the plus side, one team in Thailand say they have treated one patient successfully with anti-virals. It’s only one case, but a nice thought. How big are those stockpiles? The other plus, is that summer may slow it down. Best case is this might be “like a new flu”. We just don’t know.

Corona virus live map.

Statistics Feb 4th, 2020 Click to enlarge.

Worryingly there are reports of thirty year olds coming down with the severe form. Though again, this happens even with the normal flu. Another downer is that the latest Ro estimate appears to be around 4.0 much higher than the Flu. Meaning it may spread even faster. Though I’m skeptical as that’s calculated from Wuhan data, which is both “uncertain” and there is always the possibility that the Ro may be lower in different countries.  For comparison the Flu causes around 300,000 to 600,000 deaths every year. The fear here, justifiably, is the death rate might be quite a lot higher. The next few weeks are very important.

There are no recorded cases in Africa yet, though that seems hard to believe given the large Chinese workforce. It’s still possible perhaps for the rich western nations to curb the spread domestically, but if this spreads to Africa, India (3 cases) etc, and possibly to animal populations too, it’s difficult to imagine how it will not become endemic. Most African airlines have stopped flights to China, though not Ethiopia (perhaps something to do with the Belt and Road debt trap and the man running the WHO?).

If Coronavirus takes hold in other nations, then flights to those, and not just China will need to be stopped to contain it. At that point the question becomes “is it worth it” — which depends of course on the death and incapacitation rate — something we still really have no idea of. There are reports from China both of people who just got the flu and recovered, suggesting that for most people and the young and healthy, it isn’t a major threat. But there are also reports of quick and unrecorded cremations, and we know the Communist party has been suppressing the bad news. Photos on twitter imply the army is being brought in. This virus appears to cause the full spectrum from asymptomatic to “needing ICU”.

--Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say –  NY Times

The prospect is daunting. A pandemic — an ongoing epidemic on two or more continents… The Wuhan coronavirus is spreading more like influenza, which is highly transmissible, than like its slow-moving viral cousins, SARS and MERS, scientists have found.

“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease. “But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.”

Stopping the spread

For those wondering how the SARS and other potential pandemics were stopped — it takes laborious tracking of contacts, which is difficult with symptomless transmission. The response team must isolate high risk contacts, and sometimes even treat them with anti-virals or vaccinations (if we only had one) pre-emptively. Health workers need to wear Hazmat suits and also get the pre-emptive options. We have to ring fence every single outbreak — something we can do when there are very few cases, but quickly becomes impossible if enough infectious people walk through shopping malls and schools.

In this case, if the virus doesn’t cause a severe illness in all people, it will likely spread further and faster, as asymptomatic people don’t need to report to hospitals or even doctors, and may not realize they are spreading it. Only mass testing around a small caseload would solve that. On the other hand, if there is a significant pool of people who didn’t get sick, if we can figure out why, it may give us another treatment tool. And once many have recovered, there may be potential for antibodies against corona virus to be gathered. In the case of Ebola, the antibodies from recovered people seemed to be the only useful medicine at one point in the battle.

New hospital built in ten days: (*Works in Chrome, but not in Firefox)

FYI, The videos here don’t display in all forms of Firefox, but they do display in Chrome.

Is that a hospital or a prison?

There are photos on twitter showing the new hospital has bars on windows and patients cannot open doors from the inside.

 

Thai doctor says new drug combination treated coronavirus patient

CNN —Doctors in Thailand said they have successfully treated one Wuhan coronavirus patient with a combination of antiviral drugs, according to a briefing on Sunday from the Ministry of Health.

Dr. Kriangsak Atipornwanich, a doctor at Rajavithi Hospital in Bangkok, said he treated a 71-year-old female patient from China with a combination of drugs used in HIV and flu treatments. He said the patient had previously been treated with only anti-HIV drugs.

“I had treated a patient with severe condition, and the result has been very satisfactory. The patient’s condition has improved very quickly within 48 hours.

 

Coronavirus: scientists identify possible new mode of transmission in human faeces

  • Genetic traces of the new coronavirus have been found in the stool of patients being treated at a hospital in Shenzhen
  • The findings have prompted researchers to warn of possible faecel-oral spread of the disease, in addition to respiratory droplet transmission and contact

The doctors reading may correct me, but I think it is unusual for a virus to spread both ways — through both air and water easily. Anthrax can, but through spores (it’s not virus in any case, but a bacillus). Most viruses are armored up to survive one or the other. So people may be shedding this virus fecally but it is possible that it’s not a significant route of infection. It would  be good news if it were the predominant mechanism because the West is good at stopping waterborne infections. But I suspect this is not the case. If it is, there is a hope that the virus won’t spread as fast in the West as it is currently spreading in China. Wait and see.

h/t Thanks to William Astley, Derec Avery, Bill in Oz. Gee Aye.

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Rating: 9.1/10 (51 votes cast)
Corona Virus update -- can we stop the pandemic?, 9.1 out of 10 based on 51 ratings

181 comments to Corona Virus update — can we stop the pandemic?

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    still 414 of 427 deaths in Hubei where hospital overcrowding and slow response to the initial outbreak is a major problem.

    i wouldn’t pay too much attention to the r0 calculations based on what has been going on in China (which has basically been acting as one massive incubator since November 2019).

    100

    • #
      John PAK

      Human infection is a bit like responding to a fire. The sooner you nail it the easier it is to do so.

      Most existing Coronaviridae can be rendered unable to replicate in a host cell by pulsing with a series of AC frequencies: (995,000; 793,000; 563,000 and 63,000Hz). I’d suggest that this recent mutant could be treated somewhere near these frequencies. The issue is that treatment is best at 10mins 3X/hr for several days or until the infectious stage is past. That means each patient needs a pulse unit on hand.
      Some form of nutritional support and observation is useful.

      I now own a unit that does not need wet hand-held electrodes but ” hangs” a disease frequency onto a 3,100,000Hz carrier-wave which can be outputted through a pan-cake coil laid on the body. The carrier-wave makes the treatment airborne and the mortal frequency resonates with the virus. My best guess is that the virus RNA resonates at certain frequencies and protein molecules suffer destructive resonance. Once the RNA is ruptured it cannot replicate.

      While this sounds a bit Star-trekky it’s been around since the 1930s and is well demonstrated in the present day by Anthony Holland, a music professor at Skidmore College USA using common pond Blepharisma.

      In the 1930 Rife’s units were huge (think of your 1st telly) but I own a small 12V Lithium battery, hand-held frequency generator (FeelTech FY 2300) and a Bedini RPX carrier wave generator which is only 4″ long. I knocked up a pancake coil on a sheet of thin ply using some single-strand house wiring and a tube of builders’ silicone. All up I spent about AU$850.

      Every organism will resonate with a frequency that is specific to it’s genetic structure. Charlene Boehm, a US lab scientist has calculated the expected mortal frequencies of pathogens based upon detail genetic mapping.

      I’d be interested to hear from anyone who has experience with such ideas.

      40

  • #
    mareeS

    I almost died a couple of years ago of necrotising fasciitis, better known as aa flesh-eating bug, 10 days in ICU, 6 weeks in isolation on intravenous medication. It kills 80% of people, Fortunately not me, thanks to the Newcastle Mater Hospital, the,doctors and nurses,and the Newcastle University Medical School.

    These things come out of the wild.

    230

    • #
    • #
      AP

      A relative of a colleague of mine also had the same thing – also in Newcastle! Infected through a tiny cut. Thankfully he recovered – but geez it was close.

      About 18 months ago (before moving to beautiful Perth) I contracted Legionaries – most likely from Bunnings potting mix. A few weeks after I had recovered I got a call from NSW Health wanting to know my movements. Hopefully they are a bit faster to respond to this one!

      90

  • #
    • #
      cedarhill

      The absolute best hand sanitizer is one you make yourself. Buy 90+ percent isopropyl alcohol and drop in a bit of glycerine. Both available at most drug stores or online.

      This will kill even the norovirus along with the respiratory viruses. Note: the glycerine is to keep your hands from excess drying out, like apply a cream or lotion. Get one of those small, hand pump sprayers. Be sure to thoroughly coat your hands and don’t wipe it off – it will dry on it’s own and the contact is what kills.

      You can even use the 90+% isopropyl to sterilze surfaces. Leave on for at least 10 seconds. Above sprayer is great for coating grocery cart handles, salt shakers at resteraunts, etc.

      But, understand two things: (1) you will catch one of the respiratory viruses at some point in your life. Especially those that are highly contagious/airborne. (2) you will die but there’s lots of things you can do to avoid a premature death — make sure your lifestyle (diet, exercise, etc.) is a healthy one. As Mr Spock would say, Live long and prosper on a Keto Diet.

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      • #
        sophocles

        Methylated spirits is an alternative which could be tried. It’s also known as denatured alcohol. It could be as effective as isopropyl alcohol being 90% ethyl alcohol, 10% methyl alcohol and a bit of pyridine to colour and flavour it. Available from all supermarkets.

        The methyl alcohol content renders it toxic — it will kill you if you try to drink it and you can get past the flavour of the pyridine.

        Topical application is safe and as a cleanser/disinfectant it’s probably as good as isopropyl alcohol.
        Your choice.

        61

        • #
          hatband

          Methylated Spirits is absorbed through the skin and ends up overloading the Liver and

          damaging the Brain, the 2 Organs you need to survive an Epidemic.

          72

          • #
            John PAK

            I use a good Polish Vodka but I’m oblivious as to whether it worksh or not !

            40

            • #
              John PAK

              Food grade hydrogen peroxide is brilliant. I buy it at 40% and dilute to 3% and put in a pump spray bottle in the spare fridge. It cleans up wounds, washes hands and replaces most household bleach products.
              Due to terrorist activity it’s harder to purchase these days but still available from chemical suppliers in 15 litre plastic drums.

              10

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            That’s not what the research says.

            “Ethanol is not readily transferred to the blood stream through the skin. This is
            partially due to rapid evaporation of ethanol from the skin’s surface (Pendlington et al
            2001).

            High concentrations of ethanol are a common ingredient in hand disinfectant rubs.
            Repeated application of a 95% ethanol hand rub over a short period of time (Table 2)
            showed that ethanol could be transferred to the blood stream, but at low levels which
            would be easily metabolised by the body in a short time (Kramer et al 2007;
            Wigmore 2009).”

            Beverley Horn. HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT:METHYLATED SPIRITS (Institute of Environmental Science and Research Limited, New Zealand, 2014). Page 3.

            https://www.esr.cri.nz/assets/HEALTH-CONTENT/MoH-reports/FW14046-Methylated-Spirits-FINAL.pdf

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            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              And to clarify.

              Methylated Sprits

              “Dermal exposure to methylated spirits is unlikely to cause skin irritation or
              sensitisation. However, methyl violet, fluorescein and MIBK have been observed to
              cause adverse dermal effects at much higher concentrations than used in
              methylated spirits formulations, and some limited data indicate a potential
              mutagenicity concern about methyl violet.

              Methylated spirits is a severe irritant to the eye and may cause necrosis of the
              surface of the cornea due to the high ethanol concentration.

              The population groups most at risk from methylated spirits exposure are those who
              are most susceptible to ethanol exposure or those who are alcohol dependent.

              Susceptibility to ethanol is via reduced ability to metabolise ethanol and its
              metabolites (young, elderly, Asian ethnic groups) or groups with less body fluids
              (young, elderly and women).”

              Page 13.

              Happy to be proven wrong.

              11

          • #
            sophocles

            sounds ideal! Go for it!

            00

      • #
        hatband

        Not good advice.

        Alcohol will be absorbed through the skin and end up taxing your liver and your brain,

        2 Organs you need to survive.

        Keto is also rubbish, just switch to an all Meat Diet, eat simply

        and stop fetishising your food.

        Remember, the Chinese Diet is extremely Nutrient poor,

        many horrible diseases came out of China, Swine Flu, SARS, some say Bubonic Plague,

        Professor Arnold Ehret was of the opinion that Leprosy originated in China due to the Rice Diet.

        30

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    A great post Jo !
    And an important one !
    I’ve been following the Australian Brainwashing Corporation’s coverage online.
    I’m glad I do not rely on such tripe !
    You mention hand washing. Yes !
    But I suggest that hot air drying
    May be a key preventative.
    Powered of course by our coal fired electricity generators !

    120

    • #
      yarpos

      There is a great Big Bag Theory episode where Sheldon goes off in regard to hot air hand drying.

      20

    • #
      Graham Richards

      If there is one fact that makes one sceptical about this it’s the mention of the words ” New York Times” & “experts” in one sentence.

      70

    • #
      Annie

      I seem to remember reading somewhere that those horrible noisy hot air hand-dryers scatter infections very efficiently from inadequately washed hands. I avoid them like the plague. Shake hands thoroughlt over the washbasin and then air-dry if no paper towels available.
      James Dyson has a lot to answer for in noise pollution; possibly air pollution too.

      60

      • #
        Steve of Cornubia

        I especially hate those high-velocity dryers, first developed by Dyson I think. I have seen many occasions where a person has just used the toilet then simply sprinkled a little water on their hands before using the dryer, thus filling the area with micro droplets of, well, I try not to think about it.

        I try to hold my breath and get the heck out of there, even if it means skipping washing my own hands till I can use Mrs Wife’s sanitiser (she has one of those magic bags that women carry, with absolutely EVERYTHING in there).

        70

  • #
    Crakar24

    Well here in adelaide we have two cases but dont worry because we are so insular last years ebola outbreak never left the CBD.

    On a more serious note the two are from china over here to buy property we cant afford. Yesterday the state government was asked to disclose their movements prior to hospital isolation, this info was refused based in privacy considerations which is BS as it is a communical disease.

    Today we are told the state has taken their phones to try and track their movements because of language vomminication issues…..WTF they speak mandarin not ancient sumerian.

    Logically they are either not cooporating or are incapacitated and have lost the power of speech.

    Either way the state government are not telling the truth.

    In summary we have two people cruising around adelaide for two weeks and we have no idea where they have been.

    280

  • #
    Treeman

    Jo this has been a moveable feast from the outset. Each day has brought new information which conflicts with what we had been told.

    Yesterday we were told that surgical masks are not good enough but they’re being handed out anyway. P2 masks are unavailable anywhere. All the safety shops I spoke to are sold out!

    Information about incubation period is conflicting and retractions are happening as fast as new papers are written!

    100

  • #
    skeptikal

    The Coronavirus still appears to be following an exponential growth curve. That means the Chinese efforts to contain the virus are not working very well. I’m predicting a Corona-recession to hit the world in the next couple of months.

    121

    • #
      Bulldust

      And this may be the real killer. Secondary effects are often worse then the primary ones. There is a very real danger that the fear and associated isolation, while possibly warranted, may cause an economic slowdown triggering a full blown recession. The worlds’ economies are not in a position to handle much downside. Interest rates are already ridiculously low, debt levels immense and unsustainable, demographics working against us (baby boomers retiring) and so on. Then again, putting a purely objective economist hat on, if the corona virus kills predominantly the elderly (I am in that cohort, or at least on the cusp) it may ease the baby boomer retirement burden >.< Some say economists are heartless…

      As an early warning sign, I'd say keep an eye on iron ore prices to see if they reflect issues in the middle kingdom. See, for instance:

      https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Iron-ore-price-tumbles-as-coronavirus-spreads

      100

      • #
        Rob JM

        The everything bubble was already teetering, It was never going to survive a plague of black swans.

        40

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I think sometimes perception is worse than reality.

        If we find many people are surviving, that needs to be publicized.

        I’d put nothing past the UN to try and create a global recession to aid its socialist push….

        130

      • #
        yarpos

        That argument is a real stretch from known mortality rates

        We do know we get rid of 500,000 a year , or 1300a day with plain old flu variants

        40

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Fighting the MSM panic merchants, one skirmish at a time…..

          https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/coronavirus-deaths-age-preexisting-conditions-and-fever-symptoms—what–we-know-about-the-fatalities-1.1580817835672

          “BEIJING: The first fatality from China’s new virus would come to represent a common set of traits among most of those who have died of the disease: he was over the age of 60 and in poor health.

          “Since China reported the emergence of a new coronavirus in December, the SARS-like disease has infected more than 20,400 people and killed 425.

          “So far, 80 percent of victims were elderly individuals aged 60 or above and 75 percent had pre-existing health conditions, such as diabetes, the National Health Commission said Tuesday.

          “The mortality rate also stood at 2.1 percent, the commission noted – much lower than the nearly 10 percent who lost their lives to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002-2003, when nearly 800 people died worldwide.

          “Over 97 percent of victims from the new virus hailed from central Hubei province, where a market that sold wild animals in the capital city, Wuhan, is believed to be the epicentre of the epidemic.

          “Chinese government records also list at least five victims under 60 – with the youngest a 36-year-old man from Wuhan.

          20

    • #

      you can have exponential growth while being effective- you need a baseline of doing nothing to compare with (models provide this). Exponential growth will start flattening out at some point (an S shaped graph). The timing of the flattening is an indication of efficacy of containment measures.

      32

  • #
    Crakar24

    Bird flu outbreak in china again, what are the chances one person gets both viruses, what are the chances both viruses invade the same cell, what are the chances the virus DNA combines to produce an easily transmitted virus with a KDR (kill death ratio) of over 60%?

    121

  • #
    a happy little debunker

    Hate being a gloomy guts, but reportedly,

    Microbiologists from the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Indonesia say the country’s hot, tropical climate and rays from the sun make the Coronavirus inactive

    The Director General of Health Services of the Ministry of Health, Dr Bambang Wibowo, says Indonesia’s resistance to the Chinese-sourced virus “is also influenced by healthy lifestyles and prayer.”

    He says, “That’s why it’s important we pray, maintain a healthy lifestyle, then pray again”.

    110

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      “That’s why it’s important we pray, maintain a healthy lifestyle, then pray again”.

      If they all gather in mosques and churches to pray they’ll spread the virus even faster.
      Maybe tell them all to pray to the god of the couch?

      120

    • #
      hatband

      High Vitamin D levels protect against all diseases.

      That was proven when Finsen won the 1903 Nobel Prize in Medicine for curing Tuberculosis

      using Sunlight Therapy alone.

      43

      • #

        you are a veritable encyclopedia of misinformation. Light therapy was for the skin condition Lupus which has been called “tuberculosis” since tubercules form on the skin. It is actually quite different to the Mycobacterium infection of the lungs. It’s hard to shine a light down there :/

        53

        • #
          Graeme Bird

          They used to send people out in the sun for the other type of tuberculosis as well. And your reasoning is wrong on straight logical grounds. Hatband was talking about light via vitamin D production. You are not having a good day today feller.

          51

        • #
          hatband

          Tuberculosis of the Skin is still TB.

          Sanatoriums at high altitude where UV[B] is strongest were popular for treatment of

          TB before the invention of Sulfa Drugs and the widespread adoption of The Germ Theory.

          31

          • #

            The word tuberculosis is descriptive of a type of lesion. TB of the lungs and chest cavity is caused by a completely different bacterium that infects using different means and causes the tubercule by a different pathway. The treatments are different.

            21

            • #
              Graeme Bird

              Right. And as discussed, getting out in the sun was thought to be good for tuberculosis. Tuberculosis-tuberculosis. You seem to be stuck-on-stupid on this one topic alone.

              21

            • #
              hatband

              Gee Aye says:

              TB of the lungs and chest cavity is caused by a completely different bacterium that infects using different means …

              You’re getting carried away by the Germ Theory again.

              In fact, you don’t know what TB is caused by, all you know is that the Lungs

              produce the Mycobacterium, so let’s blame that, close our mind and throw away

              the key, eh?

              21

              • #

                Do you know Graeme?

                [Gee Aye./ I'm pulling out Graemes flame war comments against you and trying to get him to post more carefully. I've taken your side on this one. No baiting him OK? - Jo]

                03

              • #

                So you are saying that because humans have labelled two diseases, in english, with the same name that the cure is the same for both, despite the proposed cure only working for one of them.

                I’m with you man. Last time I question the veracity of your thoughts.

                24

            • #
              Graeme Bird

              But I cannot buy that Jo. Because if its always a virus, they all amount to variations on the same theme. There is only so much they can do. I cannot see where high pre-existing vitamin D wouldn’t help for every one of them. I cannot see a situation where extra vitamin C wouldn’t help you cope whenever you actually had already contracted the virus.

              In mythology you have one disease and one antidote. Viruses aren’t like that. I’m not sure any infection is like that. I think this is basic misunderstanding of both how viruses and the body works.

              I mean its pretty fantastic for the drug industry if people think that way. One cause, one cure, one ailment. But that is not how nature works.

              10

              • #

                I don’t think that way. I have no idea why you think I would.

                Graeme the grandiose oversimplifications ” its always a virus, they all amount to variations on the same theme” tell us nothing.

                00

            • #
              Graeme Bird

              Here is a video describing the combined ways that vitamin D helps combat tuberculosis. You know. The lung kind. Just in case you confuse yourself again we are talking about vitamin D and the lung kind of tuberculosis and not light and the skin version of tuberculosis.

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8iBnpKfitw

              10

      • #
        John PAK

        Both my father and father-in-law were quarantined due to TB in the 1930s. They were given steamed fish with daily doses of fresh-air and sunlight on the skin as Vit D was thought to help.

        Irrelevant but interesting is that my father was stimulated to become an aeronautical engineer by the many months recouperation, watching young RAF pilots training over the English Channel. When he returned to education he was a couple of years behind his colleagues and a bit isolated so he focused on academic excellence and ended up doing design work on the deHavilland Mosquito bomber.

        50

        • #
          Graeme Bird

          Yeah exactly. Its not like its knew knowledge. Goes back thousands of years in fact. The understanding that vitamin D was a good way to treat tuberculosis may have been obscured by the inability to patent vitamins.

          10

      • #
        Graeme Bird

        Its not misinformation to say that high vitamin D serum levels help with all disease. And there is a good reason for that. Being as in our evolution, supposing the out of Africa theory is true, we are getting around with lower vitamin D levels than we were evolved for. We get about with a lot of clothes on, have a lot of shelter, and a lot of us are either schooled or work indoors. Now these are all good things, even from a health perspective. But it just so happens that for all these positives you can get some sort of negative. And the negative is that almost everyone is too low in vitamin D.

        So obviously if your starting point is that almost all of us are not high enough in vitamin D, then the norm is a vitamin deficiency, then the correcting of this deficiency may well help with all disease, without any known exception.

        I don’t think everyone would be better outdoors all the time. The vitamin D and some other factors are helpful but all that damage to the skin can make you look 70 when you are 35. I don’t think we ought to have insufficient clothes, or that some of us ought not have migrated further from the equator to find new habitats. I don’t think that working in the shade is worse than working in the sun. But with all these happy developments some things can slip through the net and vitamin D is one of them.

        I don’t like getting too much sun on my face. I suppose the best idea would be to get around just wearing shorts but with an umbrella. The girls wearing bikinis but with an umbrella. But these things are impractical so the way to go is to send out for really strong vitamin D supplements. Really you want it to be an A, D and K2 combination. But in an emergency to drive up vitamin D levels you might go in for these super powerful vitamin D capsules.

        10

  • #
    Graeme Bird

    A lot of people will prepare. And we’ve already cut off flights from the province. So I think this rate of 1 person infecting four others ratio will tap out soon. We are in an age of many windows, good water, and flus toilets. Its not the same as 1918.

    The big pandemic will be a package with bacteria and viruses bundled together. One virus on its own? Could kill a lot of people sure but we have advanced notice. So I think come September we will look back on it with the wrong message. We will look back on it with complacency. Don’t forget you want to build up iodine and vitamin D now, with some selenium now and some for when you get sick. You definitely want high quality vitamin C for when you get sick and preferably a good stash of liposomal on hand if you can afford it. Union members should be negotiating the right to have extra sick days without pay this winter and even more with pay if they have that sort of snap. And be nice to your family. Because what is going to make it hard to survive is if you are on your own gasping for air.

    93

    • #
      sophocles

      Taking vitamin C orally is a waste of good vitamin C. Your body absorbs only 10% with the rest passed out in your urine.

      Fresh citrus fruits could be a better source. (Limes, lemons, oranges, grapefruit etc ).
      These fruits also ripen at about the best possible time: towards the middle of the most infectious times of the year.

      52

      • #
        hatband

        Citrus eats the enamel off the Teeth due to the high acid content and the insulin response

        eventually destroys a person’s health, plus Krebs Cycle stores the Carbs in fruit as

        Triglyceride laden Fat.

        Vitamin C powder is a good thing to have in the fridge for emergencies.

        For everyday Vitamin C, Rare cooked Beef will supply all requirements in bioavailable form.

        23

  • #
    Another Ian

    Just in case you’d settled down from reading tho here

    “Creator Of US BioWeapons Act Says Coronavirus Is Biological Warfare Weapon”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/creator-bioweapons-act-says-coronavirus-biological-warfare-weapon

    Via Tip of the spear

    52

  • #
    Graeme Bird

    Just some words on the Chinese capacity to build a hospital in ten days:

    The key is that the Chinese haven’t gone through the last 40 years of mainstream economics idiocy where it is claimed that you don’t need to build things or produce stuff.

    This flimsy Aussie economics where it was thought that we were all about tertiary industry, but instead we produced Graebers bullshit jobs and little else. The other thing is that the Chinese don’t have to worry about the finance cartel, with their band of lawyers and lobbyists seeing to it that you cannot build anything without the bankers taking all the value off the table. China is social credit. So they can easily finance all this stuff, and if the debt gets too high, they will be in a position to cancel debt. We are banker parasite credit. China is social credit. Now in the best of all possible worlds, and with a reserve asset ratio of 100% for on call funds, and with a lot of other proviso’s a free enterprise model for finance could work a lot more effectively than the Chinese. But what the Chinese social credit model does, horribly inefficiently, is that it at least invests in real stuff.

    But also when you are building stuff, and this relates to our need to roll out floating uranium and thorium. ….. The more production you can hive off to a dozen factories, the easier it is to build something. If you try and do all the construction on-site its a nightmare of delays. Because one task cannot be started until another has been completed. If you take usury off the table onsite construction can work. But you have to be casual and patient about it. If you want things in a hurry you’ve got to delegate as much as possible to a bunch of factories.

    The Chinese have been fantastically productive, then they were useless, and now they can get things done again. Its not a racial issue. We cannot let people point the bone at us, and adopt some sort of mystical view of comparative advantage, and say that we are no good at this sort of thing. This is not true. We have just been horribly governed and we have lost our formerly excellent banking system. Our bretheren unrighteously kicked ass on every corner of the globe and it was these celts around the Scottish/English border that started the Industrial Revolution in the first place. If we want to be able to put up a hospital in ten days we can do it. But we have to stop listening to the poisonous advice from those people who got their economics degrees right about the same time as I did.

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    Graeme Bird

    Scroll up and check the posts of a happy little debunker and then the post of Another Ian. These two posts may seem to be diametrically opposed to each-other. But I think they are both right. But for very complicated reasons. I don’t think our history is correct. I think that the Spanish Flu was probably a package of lurgies. Smallpox was a killer but not under current conditions. Smallpox proved to have very short legs once conditions improved. The AIDS business is complete fraud.

    My doctrine is that if you have people who care about you and you are well-prepared I don’t think any single virus can take you out. A virus simply lacks the genetic sophistication to take you down, no matter how well engineered, if preparations and conditions are idyllic. Rubella knocks the foetus off its fragile development path. But its probably a good thing if you catch it when you are six years old. Measles was so harmless to us, in the colonies that back in the 70′s, a prudent Mother would see to it that we all caught it.

    When the bigshots want a 90% population reduction they will include bacteria plural, and viruses in the same package, with a bunch of distractions on the fly.

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      sophocles

      Measles was so harmless to us, in the colonies that back in the 70′s, a prudent Mother would see to it that we all caught it.

      Back then we all ran around outside in the sun. From morning to evening, making lots of the sunshine vitamin.

      Now? Ha. Slip-slap-slop syndrome is everywhere. Everyone is too scared of catching skin cancer. Trouble is, Vitamin D is actually our first line of defence against skin and other cancers as well as many of the common infections. We are actively encouraged to not maintain adequate levels. With the growth of Vit-D deficiency, there has followed parallel growth of autisms, asthmas, allergies, and other ailments. Could it be vitamin D levels in pregnant mothers are too low?

      Look for Vitamin D on line in New Zealand and all you’ll get is cancer, cancer, cancer, cancer, cancer, and … cancer. Oh yes, there’s also a Sunscreen. Once the Bureaucrats take over, the most important message for overall health benefits from moderation is immediately lost. If we tested the NZ population for their Vitamin D levels, most people would be deficient. (There is active research into this area at Auckland Hospital and Medical School. Whatever the findings, the dermatologists won’t like it.)

      Moderation is a close relative of Truth. They are both both shot early in any campaign.

      Overseas web sites are far more informative.

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        OriginalSteve

        Yes well a good half an hour most days in the sun before needing to put on sunscreen does wonders for a tan and immune function….

        Most modern houses too have poor ventilation…we always gave a couple of windows locked open a bit to let air through.

        I also wonder how the vast volumes of artificial sweetner ingested by people looking for a quick fix ( exercise is so yesterday….) is going to impact 20-somethings years from now, women more than men….

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      A virus simply lacks the genetic sophistication to take you down

      is complete ignorant bunkum.

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        Graeme Bird

        Thats just blatant quoting out of context. Completely dishonest on your part. Ridiculous quoting.

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        John PAK

        It might be more accurate to say that most viral particles cannot respire or excrete or replicate on their own so fail the test as a living organism. Only if a host cell is defenceless will it permit a foreign protein package to penetrate the cell wall and use it’s reproductive facility.
        Evidence during epidemics suggest that most people fend off most viruses most of the time.

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      R.B.

      Most people survive being infected by a virus. Only a few have a mortality rate of over 50% without some treatment. I don’t think that justifies your assertion.

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        Graeme Bird

        We would need to test it with the high initial serum vitamin D levels, saturated iodine levels, and selenium that I’m advocating. With a big stash of vitamin C after the fact. So clearly we don’t know. But if the Japanese, with their high iodine levels, and their crowded ubiquitous public transport experience; If the Japanese hold up well under the viral attack, then it will give us a good indication of what the full suite of measures I’m advocating would lead to.

        https://store.prohealth.com/products/prohealth-vitamin-d3-extreme-50000-iu-24-capsules-ph324

        Kind of pointless mucking about with the locally sold stuff.

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        Graeme Bird

        Well if its my assertion you are talking about I’m talking about a situation where people are loaded up on vitamin D and iodine and a few other measures. The Japanese have perhaps the highest public transport requirement of anyone. They also have the highest iodine levels of anyone. Thats one fist pushing against the other and if the Japanese hold up well against this viral attack, then you’d have to wonder how much better the rest of us would do if the rest of my suite of recommendations were taken up.

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      Graeme, (and others) it’s so much better to avoid most grand definitive statements of 100% certainty. Gee Aye is right. In this case, you posted some interesting ideas, but it was the one careless blanket phrase that got picked up, then in defending the impossible is on the way to becoming Another Boring Flamewar.

      It is pretty silly to say “no virus” as in 100% which is so totally different from 99.999%. Which is a shame. People could discuss what you said about smallpox, but instead of a provocative discussion we end up in a deadend.

      Please avoid oversimplified careless assertions.

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        Graeme Bird

        I think thats the point here though. Obviously a single virus can kill a whole lot of people. Thats the history of it. But you have to say why? Because they are so unsophisticated. They lack the genetic capacity to produce lets say botulism toxin. So something that crude, you have to ask yourself under what circumstances is it a killer? And I think its only when it catches unprepared people and can throw them into a vicious circle.

        You cannot sleep since you are coughing, so your lack of sleep and difficulty breathing stops you from fighting the virus. You bleed internally. You cannot fight off the virus. It attacks your skin so you get secondary infections You cannot fight off the virus. That sort of thing has to be the reason something so feeble can knock people over. And the people it knocks over: In China they have high-carb diets, bad air, public hygiene might not be what it ought to be, low selenium soil, and in winter probably low vitamin D levels. Where is their stash of vitamin C? Is there Iodine levels comparable to their distant Japanese cousins?

        If we reverse all that and have high vitamin D, high Iodine, high Selenium, low carb diets and are well-looked after I don’t think any single virus can knock that many of us over. Just because they are so crude in their makeup. We saw this with smallpox, this horrific killer, and it died out like a weakling once conditions were improved. Because its only a virus.

        I say all viruses because all viruses are very crude beings. Retro-viruses even more so. If they want to kill 90% of us in the first world who want to prepare for this they will have to do better.

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          Graeme, it would be useful here to compare the genetic capacity of viruses to bacteria and fungi to make this case. Some viruses are quite large. Convince me that the BT gene doesn’t fit or could not get there except through engineering.

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            Graeme Bird

            Yeah thats a little bit trickier. I’d have to do a couple of months of study to fulfill your requirements. But consider the counter-argument? We have to have some understanding of why the age of infections came to a sudden halt in the West and is now only challenged by the age of globalisation.

            All those virus-based super-human killers suddenly died right down in their morbity. It would seem that they were never that strong in the first place. Smallpox vaccine only got 5% coverage at best and smallpox was trending down before the vaccine. So I think its pretty clear that these single virus lurgies can seem extremely strong in some contexts but are really very weak in others. If smallpox turned out to be a bit of a sissy, these others need not make much headway in a prepared population. Preparation as I am defining it. Remembering that I personally am worried about this one because of 22 years breathing in flour dust.

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        I actually couldn’t parse his comment about smallpox such was the lack of detail. My comments have not stopped others responding to them, after all, they read the first comment before my comments and can hit reply without being inhibited by my comments.

        My bunkum comment was about the unsupported assertion that genome simplicity means that any single virus can be readily combated. Much more convincingly, and in line with medical and evolutionary research, is that genome simplicity is what makes viruses such a threat.

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        Graeme Bird

        Gee Aye was not right. He was dishonest. Completely twisted what I said. Its almost embarrassing how often I have to repeat what I consider preparation in this context.

        Can Gee Aye come up with a counter-example of a population that was well prepared, in the specifics I talk about, and were hugely reduced in number? No he cannot. The Japanese are high in iodine. The Mongolians have an almost exclusively high meat diet. Well thats not quite the full suite of preparation I have in mind. But my bet is that these two won’t feel pandemic conditions even so.

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    Rob JM

    The indication is that this virus can attach to two different receptors
    The ACE2 receptor that SARS also bound to, and is responsible for severe disease, but is only found in 40% of East Asians and 20% of Europeans, and also an additional respiratory receptor in the upper respiratory tract that allows easy transmission with cold like symptoms.

    There is some good news though if that is the case.
    If the ACE2 receptor is not required for transmission then non pathogenic mutants will rapidly form, especially when passaging through Non ACE2 families, resulting in a mild cold virus that will provide immunity to the pathogenic virus.

    The virus does seam less pathogenic than Sars, as indicated by the lack of gastro involvement in the vast majority of cases. Its much easier to fight a disease if its only replicating in one organ.

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    PeterS

    I’m actually more worried about the new bird flu. It is far more deadly to humans than the coronavirus. If the bird flue breaks out in a big way the coronavirus will be nothing in comparison.

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    nb

    It has been observed that people in Wuhan have been suffering lung issues from very toxic pollution for a long time. Their lungs are already weakened. This might make the disease more deadly for them.
    It is notable that SARS killed mostly Chinese, few others.
    The idea that it is an escaped bio-weapon is now less strong after examination of the Indian researchers’ interpretation of the data.
    The best evidence that remains is the closeness of the outbreak to a bio-research site.

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    Richard Ilfeld

    China, aside from all else, has probably negated 3 decades of propaganda efforts in the west.
    No CEO is likely to again integrate 100% of a supply chain in China.
    No one is likely to believe China reporting on anything – nor should they.
    For some time, Chinese will suffer that slight avoidance in parts of the world….that walk-on-the-other-side-of-the-street thing.
    Taiwan and Hong Kong will be firmer in their resolve, and better supported by the outside world — may not make a difference, but…..
    Tourism will suffer for a while…but perhaps more than a while.

    People will forget quickly, of course, on an overt and conscious level, but they won’t actually. How readily did the SARS and MERS incidents
    come to mind again.

    Mr. XI has had a bad few months. His next move will be ????? Full Mao? More accomodation? Return to power charing?

    We live in interesting times.

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    John F. Hultquist

    I posted this below on Chiefio’s site, where he and commenters are tracking this:

    It still looks to me as though the reactions are causing more problems to society than the virus. To those that get seriously sick or die, of course, the individual doesn’t care about the societal disruptions.
    Regions with higher health care abilities likely better at treating folks; for example, the person from Washington State has be released from care. [ bold added for Jo's site ]
    So, I don’t expect this is going to be the “big one” of these outbreaks.
    I do think there is reason for other countries to press for cleaning up some practices in China (and others) that spawn such things.

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      PeterS

      Correct. Some 20,000 reported cases of the virus out of a population of over 7.7 billion is certainly not a pandemic in any language. The current flu illnesses and deaths are much worse and it’s not classified as a pandemic.

      Having said all that, I do believe one day we will experience a real pandemic that will kill millions if not billions of people. It’s inevitable for a number of reasons. It has happened in the past where a large percentage of the population were killed, and will happen again. At this stage it’s impossible to know if the coronavirus or some mutation of it is the one. Only time will tell.

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    PeterS

    Point of order. This is not at least not yet a pandemic. By definition a pandemic is the spread of an epidemic across the world affecting large numbers of people. At the moment the coronavirus is affecting a very tiny percentage of the world’s population. Using the loose definition most MSM outlets are using now we should be classifying the common cold and many other common ailments as a pandemic, which is false. Let’s hope the coronavirus does not turn into a pandemic. The steps being undertaken by most countries are helping to stop it becoming a pandemic.

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    pattoh

    Does anybody else find it strange that there are as yet no “registered” infections on the map of Africa or South Am?

    I realize the season is in play but plane were flying & we have it.

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    Treeman

    Experts envision two scenarios if the new coronavirus isn’t contained
    It’s still possible that quarantines and travel bans will first halt the outbreak and then eradicate the microbe, and the world will never see 2019-nCoV again, as epidemiologist Dr. Mike Ryan, head of health emergencies at the World Health Organization, told STAT on Saturday.

    Many experts, however, view that happy outcome as increasingly unlikely. “Independent self-sustaining outbreaks [of 2019-nCoV] in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of pre-symptomatic cases,” scientists at the University of Hong Kong concluded in a paper published in The Lancet last week.

    Stephen Morse of Columbia University suggests it’s just another coronavirus.

    2019-nCoV joins the four coronaviruses now circulating in people. “I can imagine a scenario where this becomes a fifth endemic human coronavirus,” said Stephen Morse of Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, an epidemiologist and expert on emerging infectious diseases. “We don’t pay much attention to them because they’re so mundane,” especially compared to seasonal flu.

    Although little-known outside health care and virology circles, the current four “are already part of the winter-spring seasonal landscape of respiratory disease,” Adalja said. Two of them, OC43 and 229E, were discovered in the 1960s but had circulated in cows and bats, respectively, for centuries. The others, HKU1 and NL63, were discovered after the 2003-2004 SARS outbreak, also after circulating in animals. It’s not known how long they’d existed in people before scientists noticed, but since they jumped from animals to people before the era of virology, it isn’t known whether that initial jump triggered widespread disease.

    OC43 and 229E are more prevalent than other endemic human coronaviruses, especially in children and the elderly. Together, the four are responsible for an estimated one-quarter of all colds. “For the most part they cause common-cold-type symptoms,” said Richard Webby, an influenza expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. “Maybe that is the most likely end scenario if this thing becomes entrenched.”

    One thing is certain. It does nobody any favours to point fingers of blame when we don’t know the extent of spread yet or even the true origins.

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    joseph

    Came across this yesterday. It’s yet another take on it . . . . !!

    https://crazzfiles.com/is-the-coronavirus-actually-microwave-illness/

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    sophocles

    I saw the warning against Firefox. I wasn’t perturbed as I’ve switched off Firefox to Vivaldi (chrome-based) late last year. No problems with the images or the video.

    So I dusted off Firefox (68.4.1 esr from Debian Linux) and hey, it worked. So I went a step further: I had downloaded 72.0.1 just in case I didn’t like vivaldi so I set it up and it was OK too. Latest FF is 72.0.2 but I haven’t tried that yet. Maybe later today …

    Jo: Some versions of Firefox may not work, so don’t remove your warning, but you may choose to modify it with these results. Up to you. Firefox on Debian Linux 10.2.0 seems to work OK.

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      PeterS

      Works fine with the latest FF. Should use the latest version of any browser to avoid issues as much as possible.

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      I’ve got the latest Firefox but Windows, not Linux. Doesn’t work for me. But thanks for the extra feedback. Good to know.

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        sophocles

        Okay, that points a finger to the browser supporting libraries (DLLs for Windows), and probably not in the browser itself. But of course, that doesn’t fix your problem. Which version of windows are you trapped in?

        About all you can do is ensure your update routine remains in place and keep your fingers crossed — a very `scientific’ highly technical fix :-D .

        Or run Linux from a Live DVD, such as Linux Mint. You boot your machine from and run from the DVD without installing to your machine’s disc drive (as long your machine’s version of Secure Boot permits it! Secure Boot is where the ownership of your machine is taken over — a form of confiscation — by your software supplier…
        Most modern machines have a boot device list accessed by one of the Function keys (F8, F9 or F11 or something like that almost immediately after power on) and if you can find that, you can work around Secure Boot. Might be worth a look …)

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    el gordo

    Steady on ….

    ‘China’s currency and stock markets steadied in choppy trade after anxiety over the virus hit the yuan on Monday and erased about £308bn in market value from Shanghai’s benchmark index.’ Guardian

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Steadied because the Beijing government
      Poured money like water into the Shanghai stock market !
      What does that tell us ?
      Also why did they build that big hospital in 10 days ?
      The Chinese government thinks it has a big problem
      With Corona virus in China !

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        PeterS

        Steadied because the Beijing governmeny

        Perhaps but also could be due to the realisation that the virus scare is overblown.

        Poured money like water into the Shanghai stock market !

        Perhaps but the US stock market is now booming again and it’s not from any government but from private investors and speculators.

        What does that tell us ?

        People are speculating too much.

        Also why did they build that big hospital in 10 days ?

        We don’t really know. Perhaps it’s a trial run for the real one to come. Perhaps they did it just in case the virus becomes a lot worse than it currently is.

        The Chinese government thinks it has a big problem

        We hope so. Better to be overcautious than not.

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    dinn, rob

    China-U.S joint biotechnology development program won’t be revealed in MSN but I think will be here–
    https://aumladder.blogspot.com/2020/02/china-us-joint-biotechnology.html

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      WXcycles

      If the article’s speculations were as suggested, why would the resulting published information be openly available?

      https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pntd.0007733

      Not to say the US would not research all available avenues for application of such a “virus reservoir” in bats, but why call attention to it if it was a US weapon development effort? Seems to me as a “threat reduction” agency they’re going to be required to research all the virus that China has available to work with towards such a weapon option. So they’d be required to explore all available options to weaponize such a known available virus reservoir.

      Thus the defense funding for the research.

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        Graeme Bird

        I won’t speak for what is going on in this situation specifically. But the way to hide a conspiracy is not by way of simple denial. You hide them behind fake conspiracies. You blow a lot of smoke into the room. So I hope that helps answer your rhetorical questions. Which ought not be seen as powerful arguments.

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      MudCrab

      Rob,

      you THINK the China-US Joint bio-tech program will be revealed in the blog you have linked to?

      You THINK?

      Don’t you know? I mean it is YOUR BLOG after all.

      I did read your post. It was amusing. I should point out to assist your future posts that simply claiming that a person/group/organisation didn’t do something in a set time period does not automatically allow you to claim that they must of being doing something else. This is Gavin Menzies quality type research. Menzies is a ‘historian’ who, having decided that since there was no historical record of what one of the great Imperial Chinese fleets were doing for a couple of years back in ye olden times then clearly they must have been sailing on a secret mission to circumnavigate the world. Clearly.

      Just because A didn’t happen doesn’t mean B did. You were clearly not down the pub with me on Monday, therefore you must have been breaking into the Greens Party room and replacing all their soy with diary, right? Of course not. That is not remotely how logical arguments are constructed and we both know it.

      If you honestly believe you have a story to expose to the world you need to have tighter logic arguments to offer. Also don’t cite news.com.au as a reference. They are effectively click bait these days and their currently lead video is a Married at First Site review. Aim higher if you honestly believe in your objective.

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    Bill In Oz

    From Larry at Chiefio’s blog,
    Larry Ledwick says:
    4 February 2020 at 5:14 pm
    ” 20704 cases, 427 dead, 727 recovered. The recovered number is now solidly above the dead, which I think is more a case of we are deep enough into the process that the full cycle is represented (at least in the officially acknowledged cases). I strongly suspect that for many reasons (political, institutional, operational limitations) that these numbers are only a “sample” of total cases. They are likely missing cases too minor to be noticed in the face of a pandemic (yes I think we can honestly call this a pandemic now) and the cases missed in the official tally because of inadequate manpower or test kits to verify many cases and the hurry to cremated those who died without followup autopsy etc. that would happen in normal conditions. Twitter still has lots of unattributed images of people simply collapsing in the street or while shopping. A few have been revealed to be drunks passed out but I doubt they all are.
    As is the video clips showing stacks of body bags in ambulances or side rooms in hospitals are hard to ignore.

    Likewise China’s aggressive quarantine actions (50+ million quarantined, people unwilling to quarantine being arrested by force, preparation of large bed facilities and building new hospitals ) also indicates they know this is only going to get worse for a while.”

    I have also see n those videos of bodies heavily wrapped in yellow plastic lying on the floors in hospitals. My gut feeling is that the medical system in Wuhan has been overwhelmed by Corona Virus cases. And thus I wonder how reliable are the figures being published ?

    I think the Australian government’s actions to stop flights from China and deny entrance to persons from China or who have recently been in China, is the appropriate one in the circumstances. The health of the Australian people MUST come first.

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      WXcycles

      What can be said from analyzing the released numbers is that they have become very consistent and predictable each day. The central reporting organisation releasing these numbers are either releasing them from the output of a model (as a ruse due to a lack of actual data) or they’re fully reporting the known and observed instances of a closely observed and reported viral outbreak, to the best of their ability. But the way the numbers ramp from here (if at all accurate) implies we’re less than a month from an unstoppable increase in the number of cases in China. If correct it will transition from appearing ‘manageable’, if sufficiently ruthless about it, to becoming suddenly unmanageable. On their released numbers they have less than 4 weeks to dramatically slow down the rate of transmission. They won’t get a 5th week to contain it.

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        Treeman

        But the way the numbers ramp from here (if at all accurate) implies we’re less than a month from an unstoppable increase in the number of cases in China.

        My bet is that It’s beginning to plateau now so lets have a wager. Looser donates $100 to Jo’s blog ok?

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      PeterS

      Too many assumptions and speculations. All we know for sure at the moment is the virus is being contained very well given the number of infections around the world are not out of control (so far). Yes it’s possible China is keeping the rest of the world in the dark and things are much worse there than being reported. No doubt we will know one way or the other eventually. In any case it appears we are all doing a good job keeping it contained there regardless of how bad it is China. If the virus is as bad as what some are claiming then the contagion will explode into a real pandemic soon enough. So far it’s not looking that is the case.

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    Bill In Oz

    Is this important ?
    https://www.unz.com/article/do-you-know-all-coronavirus-victims-appear-to-be-chinese-thought-not/
    May people of Chinese ethnic origin be more susceptible to this new viral disease for genetic reasons ?
    Interesting discussion.

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    • #
      Annie

      A Chinese friend of ours was knocked out by a half glass of sherry, whereas two glasses had little effect on us!

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Annie,

        Asian intolerance for alcohol is a known item.

        It may also be associated with a particular blood type and if I recall correctly, Australian original inhabitants may also have the same setup.

        Having said that, there are many Asian men who can drink alcohol.

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      truth

      Chinese researchers seem to have had extraordinary access to US biotechnology through government entities and private biotech firms…and are reportedly focussing on ethnicity-based viruses for weaponisation.

      I think we in Australia are just hostage babes in the woods ..blindfolded and PC-crippled …when it comes to China.

      We know why our universities want the fee-paying Chinese students….but exactly why is it that China is so hell bent on having hundreds of thousands of their students avail themselves of Australia’s broken education system that’s in terminal decline….when they have the humungous human and infrastructure resources themselves…that are revealed when something like this happens?

      I hope this hiatus will spur a government /academe rethink and a massive incentive-rich effort to find alternative students and funding sources.

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    • #

      Be very careful with assumptions about race and genetics. If you spend some time on SNPedia — the wikipedia type gene analysis — you will find that in most cases the spread will vary between races, but the bell curves overlap.

      And please, commenters — since Section 18C makes free speech illegal in Australia — especially related to races and ethnic groups, post comments on this subthread Extremely Carefully. Stick to scientific dispassionate discussions. Post links.

      And just to show the most extreme cases of racial difference. Eye color — See the little table bottom right of different races. CEU = European https://www.snpedia.com/index.php/Rs7495174
      Lactase is another https://www.snpedia.com/index.php/Rs4988235

      The Abbreviuations: https://www.snpedia.com/index.php/Help_(population_diversity)

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        Bill In Oz

        Hi Jo, I agree entirely about the need to be careful on this.
        Both because of the legal position,
        But also because of the need to be compassionate & caring for all
        No matter what their ethnic background.

        But I was NOT being racist at all.
        My lady is a Filipina and I would get belted with huge stick if I even hinted at being racist.
        :-)
        However it seems that vulnerability to some diseases varies a lot in homo sapiens as a species
        And the link I posted this morning seems to show that people of Chinese background
        Are more vulnerable to this Corona virus that humans with a different background.
        This by the way, may explain why the Chinese government has pulled out all stops to stop the disease spreading in China
        While simultaneously saying that there is no need for the USA to stop all persons entering the USA from China.

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        Kalm Keith

        Reference.

        Alcohol intolerance is an inherited metabolic disorder. With alcohol intolerance, drinking just small or moderate amounts of alcohol (ethanol) causes unpleasant sensations. This metabolic disorder affects the enzyme that regulates alcohol metabolism.

        Alcohol flushing syndrome is a typical reaction. The skin on your face, neck and chest may become red and warm immediately or soon after you drink alcohol. People of Japanese, Chinese or Korean ethnic groups are most likely to experience this reaction. For that reason, the syndrome is known as Asian glow or Asian flush.

        KK

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    That last paragraph does read like anthrax is a virus rather than a Bacillus sp

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    OriginalSteve

    Jo, this is quite good for analysis of people movement and impact, from a japanese perspective

    https://taskboot.com/2020/02/04/japanese-evacuees-reveal-fundamental-secrets-of-new-coronavirus/amp/

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    • #
      WXcycles

      Excellent link Steve, so ~60% of the Japanese who did catch it were a-symptomatic and it took up to 4 tests repeat tests to even detect it within the ones who were measurably ill. Most appear to be just carriers of it.

      The good news and the bad news being that most people don’t get sick, or very sick, but a small subset of those who do get sick will die without a major medical effort to prevent that. But no mortality occurred within the 8 positive lab-confirmed Japanese cases, so the death rate must be quite low among even the measurably sick cohort.

      To summarize what the Japanese observed, 60% caught it didn’t get ill. Of the remaining 40% who did get an illness, 25% of those recovered unassisted.

      Leaving 30% which then got ill enough to require medical assistance. While 15% of that 30% of cases required intensive-care, or they would die.

      Which if scaled-up means only about 4 people within every 100 people who caught it required intensive-care, or would die.

      The remaining 26 within 100 people who do get significantly sick, do require some lower-level of care to recover, i.e. they didn’t need their lungs drained or a respirator to survive, etc.

      While 10 people in 100 who did catch it and did develop some lower level of illness, needed no treatment at all and probably thought they had just caught a bad chest cold or flu.

      The bigger problem is if the (60% + 10%), or ~70%, that keep walking around with no symptoms, or fewer symptoms, and don’t realize they have it, are these highly contagious? You’d think not for the a-symptomatic 60%. But this thing spreads readily so it is likely the 10% who recovered on their own are the ones still traveling a lot and and working while actively ill, who are spreading it about so quickly in crowds (and the ones who need actual medical help spread it too, of course).

      In which case most people who get it will survive no problem, but as many as 4% will not survive, without serious medical efforts.

      And as many as 10% more who may or may not survive, depending on the level of medical treatment care available.

      Thus initial fatalities may be very low and manageable, but can then rise if the available medical care is compromised, or is spread to thin to be effective (or if the medical and ambulance people get ill or the logistics are insufficient).

      30

    • #
      Graeme Bird

      See that. A lot of the Japanese asymptomatic supposing they catch it in the first place. And what is the standout feature of the Japanese diet? They may be the only large population in the world who get enough iodine. They eat seaweed most days and they maintain high iodine levels. So thats just one of the measures I argue for and its the context in which I suggest that a single virus cannot kill that many people are prepared as I define that preparation. So thats the Japanese hitting just one of the requirements.

      Now if we get information on the Mongolians, low carb high meat diet. Thats not hitting what I would call preparation in any full sense. But its likely to be good enough that things won’t be as severe there as they are in China. And I think they are a bit poorer than the Chinese.

      10

  • #
    Bulldust

    O/topic – so the ABC runs a survey themselves, presumably of people who frequent the ABC web site, and lo and behold, they find most people want immediate action on climate change:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-05/australia-attitudes-climate-change-action-morrison-government/11878510

    Sounds legit…

    51

    • #
      Bulldust

      I should have said, sounds about as legit as the Iowa Caucus app, developed by a company called Shadow, which is populated by former Clinton 2016 campaigners, and has received money from Mayor Cheat Pete and Joe where am I? Biden.

      40

  • #
    Steve of Cornubia

    I have visited China three times and those experiences taught me that China is a huge and very effective reservoir of respiratory diseases. Forceful coughing and spitting are still commonplace, despite government attempts to stop it. Even outside of China, I frequently find myself moving away from Chinese people in all parts of the world when they start to cough, sneeze or do that horrible ‘gargle then spit’ thing. It seems to be part of their toilet routine, at least in the men’s washrooms.

    Why this should be so baffles me. I have visited many countries around the world, not all of them economically advanced, but only in China do I see this phenomenon so often and so widespread.

    As I think a previous poster has suggested, could it be that the Chinese are genetically predisposed to respiratory illnesses? Why is it that so many new bugs and new strains of ‘flu seem to originate there?

    50

  • #
    Greg Cavanagh

    I’ve been watching this site all week.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    I put all the current data into a spreadsheet and told it to find a formula that matches the data. Then projected that out to 60 days. The results were not good.

    However: I note that todays new cases (+3,242) is not greatly larger than yesterdays (+3,233) new cases. So the growth rate of new infections has slowed. That’s good. It’s going to be a while before that turns around and reduces back to (0) new infections per day.

    50

    • #
      TedM

      The number of cases is the official number given by the Chinese Govt. Since said Govt. is only making a certain number of diagnostic kits available, Some hospitals getting none and others complaining that they need many more than they have been given. The result is that the number of cases being diagnosed is a function of the number of diagnostic kits available, not the number of cases in the real world. We will never know the real number of cases, or the rate of increase of infection.

      00

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Courtesy of Cheifio Blog :

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remdesivir
    “Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
    In response to the 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak induced by the coronavirus 2019-nCoV, Gilead provided remdesivir for a “small number of patients” in collaboration with Chinese medical authorities for studying its effects. Gilead also started laboratory testing of remdesivir against 2019-nCoV. Gilead stated that remdesivir was “shown to be active” against SARS and MERS in animals. In late January 2020, Chinese medical researchers stated to the media that in exploratory research considering a selection of 30 drug candidates, three of them, remdesivir, chloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir, seemed to have “fairly good inhibitory effects” on 2019-nCoV at the cellular level. Requests to start clinical testing were submitted.

    The drug was administered to the first US patient to be confirmed to be infected by 2019-nCoV for “compassionate use” after he progressed to pneumonia.”

    As Cheifio says, these anti malarial drugs should be reasonably easily available.

    00

  • #
    TedM

    Copy and paste from the Epoch Times.

    Funeral Home Worker in Wuhan: We’re Working 24/7 to Cremate Bodies
    Workers at crematoriums in Wuhan City, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, say that their workload has increased dramatically in recent days, constantly picking up bodies from hospitals and private homes.

    In an interview with The Epoch Times, a worker describes long working hours in order to cope with the sudden increase in bodies to cremate.

    50

  • #
    TedM

    Just how devious is the CCP.

    In the conflict resolution section of the US China trade agreement is the following.

    “In the event that a natural disaster or unforseeable event outside the control of the party delays the party from timely complying with it’s obligation under this agreement, the parties shall consult with each other.”

    This agreement was signed on January 15th well after the beginning of this epidemic. The Chinese knew at the time of signing that they had a way out.

    30

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      I’m just home from the gym where I get my best ideas I think.
      I was wondering about this Corona virus.
      Could it be a Bioweapon that the Chinese government
      Had made for use in Hong Kong & Taiwan
      To help soften these places up
      For a full Communist party takeover ?
      It seems curious that this virus
      Which people of Chinese ethnic background
      Are more vulnerable to,
      ‘turned up’ in Wuhan’s markets
      Soon after related military research work started just 16 ks away
      At China’s new Level 4 Biological research facility.
      Could someone working there have released it
      As a protest against it being used as a bio-weapon ?
      And to prevent it’s use against Hong Kong & Taiwan ?
      Speculation I know.
      But it is all very curious !

      11

  • #
  • #
    Brian

    Not really. The probit function is associated with a gaussian distribution. The best way to display the progress of an infection is a cumulative plot as a function of time. With a droplet transferable virus the number of infections will grow slowly from patient zero but accelerate rapidly. The Corona infection appears to be much more contagious than we originally though and with the 14 days infectious but symptom free period the number of infections as a function if time will initially be exponential. However that rate will slow as people become serious about taking precautions. The level of precautions could be expected to be a function of the death rate. 2% doesn’t seem too bad but it would mean half a million deaths in Australia if the infection result was 100% or some 28 million in China. Basically as a pdf the infection would probably plot as a be a log normal distribution (some infections and hence deaths taking a lot longer than others).

    20

  • #
    TedM

    Great example from the bush fire front. The fire obviously had significant momentum as it caused crown scorch for 100 metres or so into the fuel reduced area. I’ve witnessed this a number of my times in my work with CALM/DEC/DPAW. Prescribed (hazard reduction) burning works, irrespective of what the university bound modelers want to tell you.

    You will notice total defoliation until it hit the fuel reduced area.

    40

  • #
    Brian

    Apologies. Don’t know what happened there but that was a response to Gee Aye’s quite logical observation 7.3.2.1 at 12:58.

    00

    • #
      sophocles

      Brian @ #40 said:

      Don’t know what happened there …

      The blog software seems to have a bit of flakiness which appears after about comment #20 esp. It may be when more than one comment arrives simultaneously. Hence the first line of this comment.

      It doesn’t do it all the time but just often enough to give surprises. I think ROM picked up on this as he was the first I saw to direct his replies through labelling, as I have directed this one.

      10

      • #

        The problem with comments here is that some have selfishly posted 20 x drivel and irrational comments. I’ve put them into the pending file, but it sometimes destroys the nesting. Apologies, and a request for people to think before posting comments on this topic. I recognise that for many here infections and epidemiology is a new topic. If you don’t know, ask. The topic is too important to let grand-standers who know nothing dilute the thread.

        10

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Seems the Nats have drunk the climate kool aid and have pronted copies of thier little red book…

    Are the Nats now just another bunch of clueless leftist climate zombies?

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-05/nationals-turmoil-threatens-to-spark-problems-for-scott-morrison/11930096

    “There are Nationals who are unafraid to bend the Coalition until it breaks, and part of their drive is fuelled by fears they are on the nose in electorates where coal means jobs and environmental green tape drives people to distraction.

    “The two Coalition partners met for a joint party room meeting soon after the Nationals had dealt with their leadership saga.

    “Nationals MP George Christensen took that opportunity to speak out against climate change policy and talk up the importance of coal, particularly in the context of the Government’s prospects in northern Queensland.

    “The ABC understands he was slapped down by moderate Liberals who are frustrated and fed up with the endless debate. Liberal MP Trent Zimmermann said climate change was a big issue in his North Sydney electorate and the party needed to take it seriously.

    30

    • #
      hatband

      The Country Party has never been any good.

      If it was any good, only Australians would be able to buy land, and the Government wouldn’t be riding the Beff and Wool Industries into the ground

      with stupid Levies and Charges.

      Christensen, Barnaby, Littleproud, Katter, they’re all rogues pandering to their Low

      Information Bushie constituencies.

      The only thing you could say about McCormack is that at least he has enough sense of

      the absurd not to join in.

      03

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Ohhh Dear ! We bushies are low information nongs ehhh ?

        Well actually No we are not !
        We grow food and sell it to low brow late city folk !
        We even feed the likes of you hatband.
        Though I think we should charge you a surcharge !
        We also mine the minerals that went into your car, house, fridge, computer etc.
        Best stuff your insults back in your shoulder bag where they belong!

        21

  • #
    LightningCamel

    Just to go back to the topic for a minute, I have skimmed the comments and noted a section on mortality rates but I think this is not the same analysis.

    There have been 400 odd deaths and 600 odd recoveries, that means that there are 19,500 odd still in limbo. The numbers are still too small and uncertain to draw real conclusions on bur, if the Ro is 4 and the mortality rate is over 4 out of 10 thennwe are looking at a serious epidemic.

    30

    • #

      An epidemic? Could be…

      Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
      Do not be afraid but act for family, friends
      and self-survival.

      What’s guvuhmint, through history’s chequered
      history, got to do with that? Hath history’s
      philosopher kings or other kings earned cits’
      blind trust?

      - Nope.

      10

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I’m seriously starting to think not – infectious, yes, lethal, maybe mostly for the elderly – but – likely no worse than a nasty version of the flu in terms of death rates.

      This is taking on the general shape of more of an economic “weapon” to disrupt economies, which makes me suspicious of where its come from…..

      00

  • #
    BoyfromTottenham

    Jo, what I find interesting is that the number of those counted as ‘recovered’ Is so small compared to the number of ‘confirmed’ cases. This seems to indicate that the recovery time is rather long. Does anyone also agree?

    10

    • #

      Agreed. This concerns me. The death rates could be much higher or much lower, and if the official numbers are junk, nothing is certain until this plays out in the West. ‘

      Are hundreds of thousands infected with a bad flu who get better, or are the Chinese suppressing the real death rate which is higher?

      It’s hopeful that people in the West often don’t need intensive care — let’s pray that trend continues, but there are reports from inside China that people who are sent home as fine sometimes are being readmitted the next week.

      00

  • #

    A twofer. Getting rid of outdated bioweapon stocks and cutting down on pension plan liabilities might be a Great Leap Forward for a Centrally Planned Economy.
    But try to imagine the shrieks from Ecological National Socialism if a democracy were to try to build a large hospital in ten days!

    10

  • #
    Treeman

    On a more positive note, In the race to develop a coronavirus treatment, Regeneron thinks it has the inside track

    The process began last month, when scientists in China sequenced the virus and uploaded their findings to an open-source archive. Back in Tarrytown, Regeneron scientists copy-pasted it into genome analysis software and began poring over the sequence in search of the key that 2019-nCoV uses to unlock and infect human cells. Much like the pandemic pathogens SARS and MERS, each individual virus of 2019-nCoV relies on a surface “spike” protein to bypass cellular defenses — and cause infection. Any eventual treatment would have to stop that protein from reaching its target.

    It’s worth noting that in January, scientists in China sequenced the virus and uploaded their findings to an open-source archive. On the face of there has been a lot more transparency than many people believe, preferring instead to bag out the Chinese people, the government and indulge in conspiracy theories!

    00

  • #
    Graeme Bird

    That was so dishonest to cut and paste about three words when I must be driving people absolutely mad with what I consider preparation (selenium, iodine, high vitamin D before, a big stash of vitamin C after and so forth) The truncated quote without the rest of it is horribly misleading. Its as if I am supposed to not know what smallpox and other diseases did to North American natives.

    00

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