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ACORN adjustments robbed Marble Bar of its legendary world record. Death Valley now longest hottest place

UPDATE: The Hon. Craig Kelly MP was so appalled by this story he has taken this to the Australian Parliament already where The Labor Party was so afraid they interrupted his allocated 15 minute speech just to stop him finishing. They even called a formal Division which means the bell is rung and all the missing MPs have to return to the Chamber to vote. See that on Kelly’s Facebook page. Who cares about our climate and who covers up for incompetent bureaucrats?!

For generations it was a Guinness Book of Records type thing. Now it’s gone.
In 1924 Marble Bar set a world record of the most consecutive days of 100 °F (37.8 °C) or above, during an incredible period of 160 days starting in 1923. It was legend — but thanks to the genius homogenized adjustments, we now find out all along it was wrong. It’s another ACORN triumph, rewriting history, extinguishing the hot days of days long gone.  The experts at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) have reanalyzed the temperatures from 4000 km away and nine decades in the future and apparently it wasn’t that hot.

Chris Gillham wonders how the bureau figured out the Marble Bar max was one whole degree too warm on 18 Nov 1923, but it was 0.6°C too warm on 19 Nov 1923, 0.3°C too warm on 20 Nov 1923, 0.2°C too warm on 21 Nov 1923, and 0.8°C too warm on 22 Nov 1923? He points out the sky was totally clear every day, the screen didn’t get shuffled around every day, etc, so where’s the logic? The world record was extinguished because on 8 March 1924 the ACORN adjustments magically cooled the temperature from 38.2°C to 36.5°C. What caused the thermometer to be 1.7°C too warm on that particular day? That adjustment is twice the size of the entire century long trend. Check out those “daily changes” of raw versus “ACORN.”

Ponder the bad luck of scientists Saving-The-World who constantly have to battle against all the thermometers which cruelly and overestimated temperatures from Stevenson Screens in sites probably unaffected by concrete and bitumen so long ago. Those falsely high readings lulled the world into thinking that the world has always been hot and that CO2 was an irrelevant, minor and beneficial gas. What are the odds that so much equipment was non-randomly, dastardly conspiring to hide the True Catastrophic Effect of CO2!
But never fear, the brilliant minds of the BoM are correcting past mistakes with secret methods they cannot explain to mere mortals outside the sacred guild of weather druids. Luckily for us, the new super sensitive small box electronic gizmos that record one second spikes of warmth from passing trucks and radiated heat from tarmac and walls is The Truth Hallalujah Brother. In another ten years, the climate of Marble Bar circa 1924 will be so much cooler. I bet the dead will be delighted.
I can’t imagine why the BoM didn’t issue a press release to let the world know that Australia now doesn’t hold the longest hottest record which now goes to Death Valley.
Thanks to the volunteer number-crunching dedication of Chris Gillham for doing what the million-dollar-a-day BoM hasn’t found time to do — tell Australian we no longer have our long-standing heatwave world record at Marble Bar and that distinction now goes to America. Perhaps if we paid them less, they’d be more informative?     — Jo
 ————————————————————————————————————————————–

Has ACORN robbed Marble Bar of its world record?

by Chris Gillham, WAClimate

If the Bureau of Meteorology’s Australian Climate Observation Reference Network (ACORN) accurately corrects historic temperature observations, it means that Marble Bar in the north of WA can no longer boast it had a world record heatwave in 1923/24.

Marble Bar has been world famous for decades because of the 160 consecutive days in which it recorded maxima at or above 37.8C (100F or a “century” in the Fahrenheit days).

The Marble Bar thermometer in a Stevenson screen topped 100F every day from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, and nowhere else on earth is known to have recorded 160 century days in a row without a break.

Marble Bar is now a runner-up
The BoM website used to have a Climate Education page explaining Marble Bar’s heatwave record. The National Library of Australia considered it to be of national significance and has archived it for posterity.

In 2020, the BoM website still has a page that explains: Marble Bar, in the Pilbara, holds the Australian record for the longest sequence of days over the old century mark (100°F or 37.8°C). This occurred during the period from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924 when the maximum temperature equalled or exceeded 100°F for 160 days in a row.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics acknowledges the world record and Australians have heard about the Marble Bar heatwave record for many decades :

 

marble bar heatwave record newspaper

 

Temperature dataset downloads from the BoM website show that ACORN has cooled 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924 so much that the Pilbara town can no longer boast that it had a world record 160 consecutive days above 37.8C.

ACORN 2, which is described as a world-class homogenisation network, has reduced the 160 days to just 128 – from 1 November 1923 to 7 March 1924.

From 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, the dates during which the 160 days of 100 or more were recorded, there’s now 153 days at or above 100F.

And the winner is … America
Wikipedia’s Death Valley page states that “The greatest number of consecutive days with a maximum temperature of 100 °F (38 °C) or above was 154 days in the summer of 2001.” This data is confirmed by the American Meteorological Society, which also references 134 consecutive days at Furnace Creek in Death Valley that were above above 37.8C during the summer of 1974.

154 days is less than 160 days but a lot more than 128 days, so it seems that America now holds the world record heatwave of consecutive 37.8C+ days at Death Valley – thanks to ACORN.

On its archived Climate Education page, the BoM states that “The highest temperature recorded during the record spell was 47.5°C on 18 January 1924.”

This is correct in the original RAW temperature dataset (see below), but ACORN 2 cools 18 January 1924 to 47.3C.

An Excel spreadsheet (499kb) with columns of daily maximum temperatures at Marble Bar from October 1923 to April 1924 in ACORN 1, ACORN 2 and RAW can be downloaded here.

Daily cooling adjustments
BoM temperature adjustments to ACORN weather stations have cooled Australia’s history of very hot days (see No more extreme hot days in Australia than 100 years ago and The Australian Bureau of Met hides 50 years of very hot days).

Politicians and climate change skeptics are often scorned for suggesting that the BoM adjusts temperature data to fit a global warming agenda or to cool the past (e.g. Media Watch), and in late 2019 SBS News reported that the bureau denied it has rewritten Australia’s climate record.

The animation below uses the daily temperature datasets for RAW, ACORN 1 (introduced 2011/2012) and ACORN 2 (introduced quietly with no BoM announcement in early 2019) to compare the number of days each year from 1910 to 2019 that Marble Bar recorded a very hot day (defined by the bureau as at or above 40C) :

 

Marble Bar very hot day trends

 

This animation demonstrates that temperature data has been adjusted, with Marble Bar just one of many examples where Australia’s climate record has been rewritten to cool the past.

The slides show that very hot days were far more frequent according to the original RAW thermometer observations in the first half of the 1900s, but ACORN 1 cooled many of these and ACORN 2 has trimmed them even further to create an upward trend in the occurrence of 40C+ days at Marble Bar since 1910.

Rain = clouds = fewer very hot days
The bureau’s archived 2009 Climate Education page helps explain why Marble Bar had the world’s longest heatwave in 1923/24: “The town is far enough inland that, during the summer months, the only mechanisms likely to prevent the air from reaching such a temperature involve a southward excursion of humid air associated with the monsoon trough, or heavy cloud, and/or rain, in the immediate area.”

Marble Bar averaged just 9.9mm of rain per month from November 1923 to April 1924, compared to the 1910-1964 Nov-Apr average of 43.4mm per month. Just 71.1mm of rain fell in 1924, compared to an average 325mm in 1910-1964. The town had 132 very hot 40C+ days in 1924, compared to the 1910-1964 average of 112.3.

It’s no surprise that the frequency of rainfall strongly influences how hot it gets in Marble Bar and how often the town exceeds 40C. In the absence of cloud data, rainfall is a proxy for cloudy days that keep temperatures below 37.8C or 40C.

Confining the data to months when very hot days occur, the animation below shows the correlation between annual November to April rainfall at Marble Bar and the number of very hot days in the RAW, ACORN 1 and ACORN 2 daily temperature datasets :

 

Marble Bar very hot days and rainfall

 

RAW very hot day (40C+) annual averages:
1910-1964 112.3
1965-2019 98.7

ACORN 1 very hot day (40C+) annual averages:
1910-1964 93.2
1965-2019 94.5

ACORN 2 very hot day (40C+) annual averages:
1910-1964 90.7
1965-2019 95.1

Rainfall November to April monthly averages:
1910-1964 43.3mm
1965-2019 56.5mm

 

The animation demonstrates that the frequency of very hot days increased when rainfall and cloudy days were relatively sparse at Marble Bar in the early 1900s, and how very hot days decreased when rainfall and cloudy days increased from the 1970s.

However, the correlation between very hot days and rainy days is ignored by ACORN 1, and even more so by ACORN 2. For example, ACORN cools 8 March 1924 from 38.2C to to 36.5C at Marble Bar, ending the world record, but there was no rainfall on 8 March 1924 so what caused the thermometer to be 1.7C warmer than it really was on that particular day (according to ACORN)?

1,187 fewer very hot days
Marble Bar had 6,178 very hot days of 40C or more from 1910 to 1964 in the original RAW observations, and ACORN 2 cuts this to 4,991 – a 19.2% reduction.

If this homogenisation is an accurate adjustment, it must be assumed the BoM identified a significant recording error in the standardised equipment and/or Stevenson screen, or an influential site move, in the first half of Marble Bar’s temperature record – sufficient to diminish the ability of rain clouds and clear skies to keep the daily temperature below or above 40C.

Alternatively, the daily ACORN adjustments are due to area averaging based on daily temperatures at “neighbouring” weather stations. In 1923/24, the closest known weather stations with digitised daily temperatures were Port Hedland Post Office, a coastal site almost 140 kilometres away, and Broome Post Office about 440 kilometres to the north (long-term Nov-Apr average maxima : Port Hedland 34.6C; Broome 33.9C; Marble Bar 39.7C). Nullagine, about 120 kilometres south and without digitised daily temperatures, is an influential station (long-term Nov-Apr average maxima 37.6C).

Although ACORN 2 substantially reduces the frequency of very hot days in the early 1900s at Marble Bar, both RAW and adjusted ACORN 2 maxima show the average temperature of the very hot 40C+ days was 42.4C in 1910-1964 and 42.3C in 1965-2019.

As at most weather stations, Marble Bar’s temperature history has been influenced by shifting rainfall patterns rather than CO2.

ACORN homogenisation of Australia’s temperature history doesn’t alter readings at the rainfall gauges since 1910, and seemingly ignores the correlation between cloudy days and very high temperatures.

Averages
The cooling adjustment of Marble Bar’s early observations affects both the frequency of very hot days and the yearly average maxima. Below compares average annual maxima in the RAW, ACORN 1 and ACORN 2 datasets :

 

marble bar average maxima

 

Average maxima
1910-1964 – ACORN 1 34.90C / ACORN 2 34.77C / RAW 35.45C
1965-2019 – ACORN 1 35.16C / ACORN 2 35.18C / RAW 35.25C

ACORN 1 warmed 0.26C / ACORN 2 warmed 0.41C / RAW cooled 0.20C
Average change per decade : ACORN 1 0.10C / ACORN 2 0.12C / RAW 0.03C

 

The maximum averages show that ACORN’s reduction of very hot days in the history books is typical of broader adjustments to maximum temperatures on all days at Marble Bar before the 1970s.

Not just very hot days
ACORN adjustments to historic daily observations affect not only the frequency of very hot days (40C+) but also what the BoM defines as hot days (35C+).

Since 1910, Marble Bar has recorded daily maxima at or above 35C every month of the year. The animation below shows annual hot 35C+ days at Marble Bar in the RAW, ACORN 1 and ACORN 2 datasets from 1910 to 2019, as well as annual rainfall :

 

marble bar hot days and rainfall

 

RAW hot day (35C+) annual averages:
1910-1964 206.5
1965-2019 196.7
9.8 fewer hot days per year in 1965-2019 than 1910-1964

ACORN 1 hot day (35C+) annual averages:
1910-1964 196.3
1965-2019 194.2
2.1 fewer hot days per year in 1965-2019 than 1910-1964

ACORN 2 hot day (35C+) annual averages:
1910-1964 191.2
1965-2019 194.8
3.6 more hot days per year in 1965-2019 than 1910-1964

RAW hot day (35C+) annual average temperature:
1910-1964 40.1
1965-2019 39.9
Average hot days temperature 0.2C cooler in 1965-2019 than 1910-1964

ACORN 1 hot day (35C+) annual average temperature:
1910-1964 39.9
1965-2019 39.9
Average hot days temperature the same in 1965-2019 as 1910-1964

ACORN 2 hot day (35C+) annual average temperature:
1910-1964 39.9
1965-2019 39.9
Average hot days temperature the same in 1965-2019 as 1910-1964

Annual rainfall averages:
1910-1964 325.0mm
1965-2019 407.3mm

 

Because annual rainfall can include downpours concentrated over just a few days and there isn’t necessarily any rainfall on cloudy days, another way to identify the correlation between hot or very hot days and cloudy rainfall days is to compare the average number of actual rainfall days each year, rather than total annual rainfall, since 1910.

This clarifies the influence of downpours over a few days but can’t account for cloudy days without rainfall.

The table below shows the averaged number of 35C+ and 40C+ days at Marble Bar in years when 10 to 19 days, 20 to 29 days, 30 to 39 days … 60 to 69 days of rainfall were recorded from 1910 to 2019:

 

marble bar days of rainfall

 

Marble Bar is also noteworthy for recording 200 consecutive days of 35C+ from 5 October 1923 to 21 April 1924, averaging 41.7C, which ACORN 2 has reduced to 179 days from 19 October 1923 to 14 April 1924, averaging 41.5C.

Which dataset do we believe?
Marble Bar, widely considered to be the hottest place in Australia, nowadays has cooler weather and its residents endure fewer scorching hot days than was the case a hundred years ago.

ACORN’s rewriting of Marble Bar’s climate history has warmed the town and encouraged the belief that CO2 is responsible for more hot and very hot days.

If the BoM still believes its 2009 Climate Education web page and argues that Marble Bar retains its heatwave world record because the original 160 consecutive days of 37.8C+ in 1923/24 were valid and accurate, the credibility of ACORN is destroyed as a homogenisation process that persistently cools historic temperature observations around Australia.

But If ACORN is touted as a world-class network that produces accurate historic temperatures, Marble Bar can no longer boast that it holds the heatwave world record.

Either the original observations were accurate or the ACORN cooling adjustments are accurate, and the bureau can’t claim it’s both.

• Further details here, a page with links to further analysis of hot and very hot day frequency in different Australian regions.

 

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Rating: 9.8/10 (106 votes cast)
ACORN adjustments robbed Marble Bar of its legendary world record. Death Valley now longest hottest place, 9.8 out of 10 based on 106 ratings

246 comments to ACORN adjustments robbed Marble Bar of its legendary world record. Death Valley now longest hottest place

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Don’t know what amazes me more BOM’s continual fiddling or
    that about 200 kilometres east of Marble bar there is glacier scarring on the side of a hill .

    380

    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      b-but it must be true, because cliamte change!

      140

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      The Bureau of Misinformation
      Hard at Work spreading propaganda & lies !
      I wonder when they will realise
      That we all know their game
      And learning to ignore the dopey buggers.

      Of course it would be better
      If we could sack them as well !
      That’s what they deserve !
      Without any entitlements or redundancy !

      261

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Meanwhile the deciduous trees here in the Adelaide Hills
        Are changing colour & lots are dropping their leaves.
        It’s cool outside in the mornings & evenings !
        It’s AUTUMN already !

        or is the World Cooling ?

        170

        • #
          GD

          It’s Autumn here in Geelong. The odd hot day does not a Summer make.

          110

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Below 6℃ this morning in Woodside.

          The trees in the main street started changing their leaf colour before the end of February last year too.

          70

        • #
          William

          In Sydney we have had yet another cool summer – we didn’t bring the fans up from the garage at all. Yes, there have been a few quite hot days, but not nearly as hot as 2003 or 2005 when we contemplated airconditioning. The fires in South East Australia were cool weather fires mostly but no doubt in a few days the BOM will be breathlessly telling us this has been the hottest summer on record for the region.

          Seriously though, there does need to be an independent audit of the BOM, with ACORNs 1 and 2, they are really getting out of control.

          140

          • #

            Yep the high priced help at our BoM believes it knows more than those who actually recorded those temperatures almost 100 years ago. This latest unproven assertion was concocted in one of their capital city, airconditioned offices a mere 4,000 Kms from Marble Bar.

            Why should anyone take any notice of the BoM rewriting Australia’s 100 year old temperature records when it couldn’t even forecast the recent East Coast downpours two weeks ahead?

            The million dollar a day BoM continues to demonstrate it’s subservience to the IPCC and the UN by concentrating on cooling the past to exaggerate alleged global warming.

            The Marble Bar temperatures are still the world record despite the BoM’s latest thought bubble which should be ignored, until and if, it is ever independently verified.

            Time to audit the BOM.

            10

    • #
      tonyb

      That glacier scarring has now been proven to have occurred in 1923. there was heavy snow during much of that and the following year in Marble bar. Apparently the glacier only melted from around 1980. I am very surprised at the disinformation and that none of the inhabitants came clean on this icy hell as there are photos of them wearing fur coats during the 1923 period.

      220

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        I’m reminded of the comment by an Icelandic meteorologist “I hope NASA doesn’t make 1904 any colder otherwise my (4) grandparents (would freeze) before they could meet.”

        160

    • #
      James Poulos

      I’m sure it will all be rectified once the US Weather Service adjusts down their historical records.

      Say – when will the US change over to digital thermometers anyway?

      110

      • #
        Laurie

        The simple answer JP is we get BOM to homogenise all the worlds data then we can have our records back, and the world can have run away “globle warming”, just like BOM have made the past cooler here (funding for that shouldn’t be a problem, they get enough money already)

        90

    • #
      Steve B

      Now that Marble Bar has been “adjusted” it is only a matter of time before the BoM decides Australia’s hottest day in early 1960 at Oodnadatta needs to be adjusted downward (watch this space). The BoM is now so confident they have enough backing from the political and media elites, they will become even more outrageous in their adjustments.

      90

    • #
      Analitik

      about 200 kilometres east of Marble bar there is glacier scarring on the side of a hill

      Shush – some warmist will claim that the glacier was there until a couple of years ago.

      30

  • #
    Yonniestone

    The BOM just gave a last ball underarm delivery in the IPCC test series.

    Kiwi fans in 3-2-1……

    221

  • #
    ColA

    Can we ask the Guinness Book of Records for a new category – “Most distorted temperature record” although the BoM will have some very good competition!1 :-)

    480

  • #
    PeterS

    The term climate science has clearly become an oxym0r0n.

    320

    • #
      William

      What I hate is when alarmists refer to “the science” as by doing so, they think they are trumping all dissent. You can’t argue with “the science” because “the science” is in and 97% of scientists believe in ““the science”.

      So when I hear anyone refer to it as “the science” I immediately realise that not only have the drunk the climate koolade, they have bathed in it.

      80

      • #
        robert rosicka

        William yes I agree but quite often the science they refer to is just part of what is in a paper , it’s the half truths and half the findings etc that make a mountain out of a molehill .
        Also statistics and graphs that yes are true but manipulated to look scary , as an example of this look at the massive amounts of ice loss in the Arctic they quote .
        What they don’t say is that the amount of loss is replaced in the winter usually .

        20

  • #
    Dennis

    “acknowledge the corn

    To admit to or acknowledge one’s fault, shortcoming, mistake, crime, or naiveté.

    When they arrested me, I decided I might as well acknowledge the corn and confess to stealing the car. Especially since I was still driving it.”

    60

  • #
    John

    What BoM is doing is beyond criminal.

    340

  • #
    Mal

    BOM, part of the ministry of truth.
    Rewrite history, project forecasts 100 years out but can’t predict weather 2 weeks out
    Never saw the 1 1/2 weeks of rain on NSW East Coast which almost filled Sydney water supplies
    Almost on par for incompetence as the ABC

    322

    • #
      Dennis

      Taxpayer funded propaganda units deceiving taxpayers while the elected government does nothing to pull them into line.

      210

    • #
      sophocles

      project forecasts 100 years out but can’t predict weather 2 weeks out

      What are their one, three and five day forecasts like? They are the ones you should pay attention to.
      Any other forecasts are the red ball bouncing on the pins on the big wheel …

      (The 1, 3 and 5 day forecasts shouldn’t be too bad because they’re forecasts from the WMO supplied to the BoM.)

      00

  • #
    Another Ian

    Why are people questioning this? BOM knows it wasn’t that hot (/s)

    60

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    As a scientist it is to me, so unethical and counter science as to deserve the label: Evil.

    Christiana Figueres, Mal, Alex, The Algorythm, Johhny Hew, and that massive list of “temperature influencers” from the UNIPCCC: they can afford the electricity prices that are shutting down our industry and even our offices.

    This must be confronted.

    KK

    350

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    when you adjust a measurement, you no longer have a measurement.

    450

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      No.

      You’ve got a “Falsie”.

      KK

      140

    • #
      PeterS

      It’s colloquially called a lie instead. It’s now the norm for scientists to adjust the data. At least with some politicians when they lie they do so through ignorance. Scientists ought to know better as it’s their business to seek the truth.

      180

      • #
        Bushkid

        It should be politicians business, even their duty, to seek the truth.

        100

        • #
          PeterS

          In the ideal world everyone should be seeking the truth in an honest and objective manner.

          70

          • #
            ivan

            Peter, that requires thought and kids haven’t been taught how to think for a long time. Not only is science suffering because of it but so is engineering – anyone for bridges that collapse.

            80

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              Was that the one in the EU?

              60

            • #
              PeterS

              Which is why our civilisation will eventually crash and burn, just like all past civilisations. Once a civilisation deviates from the truth it’s all down hill. Mankind refuses to learn from history to avoid repeating that cycle of death.

              80

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              A lot of kids believe the climate lie, but I always challenge it.

              Amongst teenagers its even worse, although some on the surface go along with it but you can tell its only because their mates do.

              I just keep telling them data doesn’t support the lie, and that we’ve had no temp increase for 20 years…….

              Dont be afraid to push back on it – its a huge lie, pure and simple, and needs to be exposed for the shamefaced rubbsih it is.

              120

              • #
                PeterS

                I do the same thing. However, be prepared for some violent response. I haven’t been beaten up yet but I’m expecting it at some stage. Extremists tend to resort to violence eventually when they are continually confronted with the truth.

                90

        • #
          ColA

          They all still believe that CO2 is the major driver of the temperature, so exactly how much truth seeking are you dreaming about?

          70

          • #
            PeterS

            Indeed, especially now that both sides of politics agree that climate change is driving longer, hotter and drier summer seasons and the emissions targets need to “evolve”, and have already done so to 0% according to opposition leader Albanese. All we need now is for Morrison to come up with his “evolved” target.

            Morrison sounds like he might match that 0% target or close to it by 2050 or perhaps later, with a technology-based plan in order to achieve it, or at least pretend he can.

            We are sure being lead down the garden path by both these fools.

            70

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Scientists ought to know better as it’s their business to seek the truth.”

    Unfortunately these days it seems the pay chrque is better if they don’t

    160

  • #
    David Maddison

    The problem is that the Left use Orwell’s “1984″ as an instruction manual, not a warning.

    QUOTE
    “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”

    511

  • #
    Brian the Engineer

    Can we not just rename the BOM to the Ministry of Truth in Weather

    191

  • #
    lyntonio

    Unbelievable….
    “North Pole” is not far away.
    Will this have to renamed ???
    Surely the geologists have this wrong too.

    [Hint https://austhrutime.com/north_pole.htm - jo]

    60

  • #
    David Maddison

    In my training as a scientist I was taught early to never alter original recorded data, it was what it was. If it was obviously invalid it should be deleted but never altered.

    211

    • #
      Peter C

      Not deleted (I hope). Just not included in the study (with appropriate explanation).

      120

    • #
      Clyde Spencer

      Scientists should never go into the field (bush?) with an eraser. If a reading is entered incorrectly, then a line should be drawn through it and the ‘correct’ value placed adjacent to it. If one is using a laptop computer in the field, then something like a spreadsheet should be used for data entry and a remark entered in the cell to indicate if a change has been made, and why. It is important to maintain a “chain of custody” for data, as with forensic evidence. Let’s hope that the BOM wasn’t daft enough to destroy the original raw data after converting it into pseudo-measurements.

      70

    • #
      John

      And if you use a “normalised” set of data, then you explain how and why it’s been changed.

      20

  • #
    David Maddison

    If the BoM refuse to disclose their methodology for adjustment, which is the case, the data is in the realm of politics and not science.

    The purpose of cooling the past is to create a warming trend in conformance with the political ideology of global warming.

    Thus this adjusted data is a political statement in support of the political belief in global warming.

    It has nothing whatever to do with science.

    310

  • #

    1924 was a dry one out there, for sure. In fact, the driest measured. The Malina gauge, which is still operative but now another complete botch thanks to automated measurement, shows zero rainfall for 1924 and zero for the five months prior. (Others show a bit.)

    All statistics are trick statistics but some are handy. It’s fair to guess that such a dry period would be your “hottest” if daily maximimum is your interest, as it would be for the sake of heatwave record setting. So the least cloud gave the highest readings? No surprise except that “least cloud” and “highest readings” are supposed to be for now, today if possible. “It was worse than they thought” just doesn’t sound as juicy as “It is worse than we thought”. (Perhaps the Ministry of Truth can ban past tense in certain references to weather? Better ring some angry sheila at the Macquarie Dictionary for an opinion.)

    I’m not too sentimental about Aussie legends but I’d rather believe a legend measured by remote living humans in WA in the 1920s than believe a B0M historical adjustment or daily precipitation report from an unsupervised and buggy rain gauge in the 2020s.

    211

    • #
      clive hoskin

      Well,I do recall that the BOM had stated that the rain that we were having at the time would not continue through to April.It rained here for almost 2 weeks after.Lol.

      50

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    if the BOM ran a clothing company their size ’4′ (actual measurement) would be a size ’14′ (adjusted ‘measurement’).

    110

  • #
    Aussie Pete

    Rutherglen on steroids. Surely someone can ask a question in Parliament about this, bearing in mind that misleading Parliament is a serious offence.

    150

  • #
    Ian Hill

    The BoM could have prevented that if they wanted to. It’s likely to be just the result of a two-way forcing program to make sure the sum of all +/- temperature adjustments reaches predetermined figures for both a region and particular time period. Both these parameters appear to be secret to the BoM.

    Of course the ‘predetermined figures’ are the matters of contraversy.

    You’d think management would have issued a minute to ensure such iconic Australian records are not damaged.

    80

    • #
      David Maddison

      Why adjust the raw data at all?

      180

      • #
        Ian Hill

        Well that’s right David! I think it’s all about making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear so that they can create more more fake maps of the past to suit their agenda.

        130

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Cool the past means every year now is hottest evahhhhh ,

        130

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        Clyde Spencer

        David
        There are sometimes valid reasons for adjusting measurements. If someone had the foresight to save an old thermometer, and it was later (today) determined to be improperly calibrated, then that might justify making changes. Something like that is extremely rare! An alternative approach would be to keep the original measurement, but increase the error bars to reflect the newly assessed uncertainty. However, any study using altered data should explain why the measurements were changed and how.

        Speaking of uncertainty, why don’t the graphs above show the uncertainty of individual measurements?

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        • #
          Kalm Keith

          The readings taken with the thermometers by hand should n
          Never have been “blended” with those from automated electronic devices and neither of those two mixed with satellite data.

          All three groups of data are different and Must not be mixed.

          The only way of linking them is to plot three separate graphs with each data set marked separately by colour or line differences: crosses, dots, double dots.

          Always separate.

          They have been blended to make money.

          That’s not statistics.

          KK

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          • #
            Ian Hill

            Absolutely correct Keith.

            When I was at the ABS part of my job was to produce annual age/sex population estimates for small areas such as local councils or shires. We started with population census data and updated each year with natural increase (births minus deaths) and an estimate of migration. Migration was the tricky bit!

            This was done for each individual age up to 84 and older was 85+. The computer programs contained algorithms to estimate migration and two-way forcing to ensure the small area estimates added up to state totals for each age/sex cell and independently calculated total population for each area. I imagine this is similar to what the BoM does with its homogenisation process.

            One thing the ABS would never do was alter past census data and yet that’s exactly what the BoM is doing!

            Changes to council boundaries did cause problems and census data had be ajusted to reflect the new boundaries back to the census before last but this was confined only to the sum of the total area concerned. It never affected anything on the other side of the country or even the state.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Rutherglen

      Rutherglen

      Rutherglen

      50

  • #
    Peter C

    Who is responsible for the Bureau adjustments?

    Look no further than Blair Trewen and David Jones, both employed by the BOM.

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    • #
      el gordo

      They are leading members of the Klimatariat and they should front an audit inquiry, to discover how and why they adjusted.

      150

      • #
        Peter C

        We had three audit enquiries; known as the Technical Advisory Forum, The TAF met and took advice from Trewen and Jones. Reports were produced for 2015 ,2016 and 2017.

        The members of the forum were:
        Dr Ron Sandland– Chair
        Professor Bob Vincent – Vice Chair
        Dr Phillip Gould
        Dr John Henstridge
        Ms Susan Linacre
        Professor Michael Martin
        Professor Patty Solomon
        Dr Terry Speed

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  • #
    Peter C

    It is all intensely frustrating.

    I have been invited to attend a presentation by the Treasurer Josh Frydenberg hosted by the IPA, Titled “On the Opportunities and Challenges Facing the Australian Economy”.

    Obviously blowing all our money on a pointless fight against Climate Change is a Challenge.

    I might go and see if I can ask a question.

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    • #
    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Ask him if he rode his bike to the event….

      50

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Ask him why the government is not using the most efficient, non CO2 producing, method of generating electricity.

      Now, I wonder what that technology might be?

      60

    • #
      Dennis

      Last year raid broadcaster Alan Jones interviewed Josh Friedenberg and really got stuck into him, he accused Josh of being dishonest about climate change and reminded him that only a few year earlier Alan had talked with Josh at Josh’s home about the climate change based hoax, that at that time Josh agreed with Alan that it was a hoax.

      I would suggest you contacting Alan Jones, Radio 2GB Sydney or at Sky News Channel because he and Peta Credlin are definitely on our side, and she was Chief of Staff in the Abbott Government Cabinet.

      Jennifer Marohasy contacted the Minister for BOM 2013/14 to report the rubbery figures, he reported to the Abbott Cabinet and PM Abbott recomended an independent audit of the BOM, that due diligence be conducted. The recommendation was defeated by a small majority. It was around that time when PM Abbott referred to socialism masquerading as environmentalism and called IPCC data “cr*p”.

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  • #
    Another Ian

    As a friend would put it

    “We’re being hit with a dose of truth serum”

    50

  • #
    Ian Hill

    One thing, we can be sure that the original raw data maxima were recorded to the observer’s best ability at the time. He would have known it was already a record and that now being autumn it would soon end, so each day was still faithfully recorded as it was.

    It’s just nonsense that the BoM is now saying that he made an error of 1.7C (3.06F) too high on 8th of March 1924.

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    • #
      Clyde Spencer

      The whole approach of homogenization denies the existence of micro-climates and pretends that all temperature changes are smooth and gradual, which is unrealistic. They are essentially passing a spatial smoothing filter over the data, which suppresses extreme values.

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  • #
    Rex Littleood

    The BOM has recently been renamed, I am not sure if you have seen this yet, but it is now known as;
    THE BUREAU OF MYTHOLOGY and all and sundry should know that from this day forth. Any infraction will have you incarcerated, or probably incinerated due to the WARMING ATMOSPHERE.

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  • #
    Another Ian

    I wonder if the BOM realise that they’re helping Trump “Make America Great Again”?

    100

  • #
    Phoenix44

    As I’ve said before, if these are random errors, then adjusting them should make no difference to long run large area averages, as the adjustments should be both ways and cancel each other out over thousands of data points.

    If they are not random, then an algorithm run to catch systematic errors will find them and then you can assess whether they they are in fact systematic errors. But BOM just runs an algorithm that overwhelmingly finds “too hot” errors, perhaps because real,localised hot spots are far more likely than real, localised cold spots.

    I note in that regard this summer, I was in France in an area of very high temperatures (around 40 degrees) then drive less than 90km to the airport at 4pm and the temperature dropped by twenty degrees in that distance.

    20

  • #
    tom0mason

    BOM – Cooling Recorded Archives Presumptuously

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  • #
    David Maddison

    I wonder how long it will be before historic newspaper records are altered as in “1984″?

    For those interested, here is the original 1984 movie.

    https://youtu.be/9oNRgpr_btA

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  • #
    pat

    behind paywall…some excerpts found:

    14 Oct 2019: Australian: Things hotting up at Bureau of Meteorology
    by Maurice Newman
    Why is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology a protected species? How many warnings does the government need before it conducts a parliamentary inquiry and independent audit…
    The BoM is a large and expensive agency, employing almost 1700 people. It requires $400m a year to run. The importance of its database and the reliability of its forecasts go well beyond daily bulletins…
    Surely, for $1m a day, taxpayers are at least entitled to reliable data. Yet what we get are homogenised records achieved by mixing, matching and even deleting temperature data, often from unreliable or geographically unrelated sites and almost always with a warming bias…
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/things-hotting-up-at-bureau-of-meteorology/news-story/a453a2b2dab28c53ce1df57bdc85e98b

    25 Feb: Australian: PoliticsNow: Live news from Canberra…
    By Richard Ferguson & Elias Visontay
    Mr. Albanese also said he would continue challenging Scott Morrison to a debate on climate ***policy…
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/politicsnow-live-news-from-canberra-as-anthony-albanese-pressured-on-emissions-target/news-story/cb5c8df499e972edaae66929b2c67b06

    6 Feb: Jennifer Marohasy: Cooling the Past: Made Easy for Paul Barry
    It is not disputed that Blair Trewin under the supervision of David Jones (both working at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology) remodel all the historical temperature data generating trends and statistics that look quite different from the actual measurements.
    The remodelled series are then passed on to university and CSIRO climate scientists who base much of their climate research on these ‘second-hand’ statistics.

    So, when Michael Mann and David Karoly tell you it’s getting hotter and hotter, this is their interpretation of Blair Trewin’s statistics, not their interpretation of the actual data.
    When I say there needs to be more scrutiny of what Blair does to the actual measurements, I’m simply making a request…READ ON
    https://jennifermarohasy.com/2020/02/cooling-the-past-made-easy-for-paul-barry/

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Are there copies of all of Australia’s historic weather records in safe places away from the BoM where they protected from alteration?

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  • #
    pat

    25 Feb: Brisbane Times: Turnbull warns of ‘catastrophic’ future if we don’t move to net zero
    by David Crowe
    Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has slammed the “false” and “misleading” claims in Parliament about the risk of achieving net-zero emissions, rebuking his former colleagues for ignoring the cost of inaction on climate change.
    Mr Turnbull warned of a “catastrophic” future if Australia and other countries did not move to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, throwing more weight behind a 2050 deadline as the target.

    In a blunt speech to the ***Informa conference of energy executives, he fired a series of warning shots at Prime Minister Scott Morrison by warning the “bubble” debate in Canberra put the country in danger from inaction on climate change.
    “We’ve got to stop this false debate, this misleading debate about whether getting to net zero emissions by 2050 … is something that’s optional,” he said in Sydney on Tuesday.
    “Well, I suppose it is optional but it’s an option you don’t want to miss because if we do miss it we know what the consequences are.
    “The fires of this last summer will seem like a very, very mild experience compared to what a 3 degrees Celsius [warmer] world will look like.”…

    “It is an absolutely unthinkable, catastrophic, apocalyptic scenario,” he said…
    Mr Turnbull said the facts showed Australia could achieve net zero in a way that lowered energy prices.
    He said while the Howard government confronted a cost barrier to reducing emissions when it advocated an emissions trading scheme, the dramatic fall in the cost of renewable energy meant it was now cheaper to reduce emissions than to use coal.
    “We have the means, with the engineering and economics, as opposed to the ideology and idiocy … to move to a zero-emission energy sector which will deliver cheaper and cleaner and reliable energy,” he said…

    Mr Turnbull said the cost per watt of a photovoltaic cell has fallen by 90 per cent over the last eight years, a point echoed by experts in the audience who noted it had gone from more than $2 to about 20 cents per watt…
    NSW Energy and Environment Minister Matt Kean conspicuously praised Mr Turnbull at the conference, using his speech to thank the former prime minister…
    “Let me make it very clear to my friends in Canberra: we should and we must move towards zero net emissions,” Mr Kean said…

    While Nationals MPs such as Barnaby Joyce and Matt Canavan argued for coal-fired power, Mr Turnbull said the party was letting down its rural constituency when coal was no longer economic.
    “The trend is absolutely clear – the arguments in favour of coal are just sheer ideological claptrap,” he said…
    “But if you read the News Limited newspapers and listen to debates in Canberra, it’s a parallel universe.

    As to the future of the coal industry, we should all hope that thermal coal is going to go out of business, not just in Australia but around the world.
    “Because if it doesn’t, and we’re still burning coal to generate energy in thirty or forty years, we’re moving into a three degrees Celsius environment, which is catastrophic.”
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-warns-of-catastrophic-future-if-we-don-t-move-to-net-zero-20200225-p5449p.html

    ***Informa: Event: Pumped Hydro & Battery Storage Conference
    25-26 February 2020 | Swissotel Sydney
    Co-located with the Large Scale Solar Conference and the 7th Annual Off-Grid and Stand Alone Power Conference. One registration for all events…

    Day 1/Tuesday, 25 Feb 2020 (LINK DAY 2 PROGRAM ALSO)
    12.30PM SPECIAL KEYNOTE ADDRESS: Energy, the climate and realising Australia’s renewable potential
    The Honourable Malcolm Turnbull, 29th Prime Miniser of Australia…etc
    https://www.informa.com.au/event/conference/pumped-hydro-energy-storage-conference/

    Informa: Upcoming Events
    https://www.informa.com.au/

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      No one listens to Green Mal any more…..

      Its like a bad echo….just wont fade away when it should.

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      • #
        Graeme No.3

        20 cents per watt = $200,000 per MW At 17% capacity factor that is $1,176,470

        for a 2 GW station that is 2.353 Billion v’s about 4 billion for a HELE coal fired station
        Mind you the HELE station would run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and wouldn’t need storage.

        If we factored in batteries at $90 million per 100 MWh and had to allow for
        12 hours of no output the extra cost would be $1800 million**
        72 hours of no output the extra cost would be $10,800 billion

        Solar ccost $13.33 billion or 3.3 times that of a HELE station

        ** yes, demand drops at night, but batteries cannot be run down to zero.

        30

    • #
      GD

      we’re moving into a three degrees Celsius environment, which is catastrophic

      How can they say that with a straight face? Three degrees C would benefit much of the world.

      Of course, 3C is just a made-up figure.

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    • #
      truth

      BoM and the rest of CAGW Internationale know they don’t have to tell us anything at all…not about their adjustments…or their convenient guesses about historical temperature across vast swathes of the earth…that they present as unimpeachable evidence of CO2-induced CAGW …not the fact that they declared consensus and intimidated half or more of the world’s scientists before most of the most vital research was done……their airbrushing from history of the LIA and MWP…their failed proxies—failed models…their missing hotspot…their corruption of science and peer review etc etc

      They know they don’t have to tell us because the MSM never asks them and never will…they know the LW journalists will always help them to misinform us….to fudge…to lie…to rewrite history…any means at all to hide and justify their Global Socialist ends.

      They know the Australian government will be threatened and blackmailed by European governments including the UK government into complying with Paris…the European consumer cartel posited by the very influential Hans Werner Sinn in The Green Paradox….and that compliance requires that Australians not be told the truth.

      The threats of retribution for the non-compliant…especially Australia…are already starting.

      As Bob Carr advised Labor MPS today…they only have to shut up and it will all happen for them without their lifting a finger….their dirty work will be done for them without need for them to take any political risks.

      He told them that pressure on big business from Europe means that Australian business leaders are steering Australia towards net zero by 2050 regardless of what the Australian government wants or does.

      Democracy and the people’s vote obviously means zero to Carr.

      He cited RE mogul Garnaut without mentioning Garnaut’s huge personal vested interest in RE…and seemed to indicate without disclosure his own [IMO] as he puffed and waxed on like a real estate agent about General Electric’s huge wind farm in the Southern Highlands…giving all its stats and saying it’s an example of international pressure and funds …steering Australia towards net zero.

      ‘All they want from government is the right policy’, puffs Carr but of course the right policy comes with a huge cost to the Australian people –to ensure GE’s coffers overflow with Australian TPM.

      But the CAGW cult also know Morrison and his Photios Cabinet will protect them from the Australian people and from the truth getting out.

      Morrison let the ‘quiet Australians’ think he’d have a different climate policy from Turnbull’s and would build or facilitate coal-fired plants…just as he’s pretending now that he might underwrite the Collinsville plant but IMO he’s just delaying and diverting and going through the motions as a sop to Canavan et al.

      Journalists have already announced it will be found to be not feasible.

      I don’t think Morrison cares about anything but the politics he thinks will keep him in power…so he’s thumbing his nose at the ‘quiet Australians’ and implementing Turnbull’s Profound Transition…pretending it’s not so profound ..that it doesn’t set in concrete that Australia will have the world’s most unreliable 100% weather-dependent electricity system while all its competitors have baseload security.

      Morrison and Taylor are now regularly bragging about the massive RE build that they’re facilitating…to build their cred with ‘progressives’…but never do you hear a word from them about how the grid’s getting more fragile by the day and every new batch of RE makes it much more unstable….doesn’t comment even when ESB’s Kerry Schott talks about the instability and the voltage excursions blowing up appliances and equipment…or AEMO admits it’s only just hanging in there.

      The massive RE build Morrison et al are so proud of must be moving us closer to the time when the carpetbaggers …having killed off coal…will have Australia by the throat…when Australia must keep the billions coming for their huge overbuild ..Garnaut says 7X demand …some say at least 8X…or they’ll shut Australia down.

      Gillard’s former adviser John McTernan’s just been interviewed from the UK by Credlin…and he surprisingly confirms that the Left’s agenda is to use the CAGW hoax [my word not his…he seems to be a believer…but a Blairite…not Far Left Labour]…to use it as a Trojan Horse [ his words] for replacing Capitalism with Socialism.

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      • #
        PeterS

        I’ve already started to think Morrison is just Tunrbull 2.0. After all Morrison has continued with the plan to allow coal fired power plants to be eaten up by the renewables monster. It will only get worse if his new technology based plan to reduce our emissions even more turns out to leave out coal and nuclear as part of the energy mix. If his dream is for some other technology to come to the rescue, such as hydrogen, then he better realise it will be a very long wait by which time our economy will be in ruins thanks to higher energy prices and more instability of the grid. Our economy is already sliding in a big way for a number of reasons and the continual push for lowering emissions will be the last straw. Perhaps he doesn’t give a damn and all he cares about is his political career. We shall get a better idea when he unleashes his new plan to reduce our emissions even more.

        10

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘ … all he cares about is his political career.’

          No, he knows its a miracle that he is still PM and the best way forward is to do nothing.

          Cory is actively calling for nuclear power, an indication that its more lucrative than a political career.

          00

  • #
    tom0mason

    BOM — Archives Cooled, Original Records Negated

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  • #
    pat

    behind paywall. just what we need – another global institution:

    We need a world institution for climate and energy by Nick Butler
    Financial Times – 24 Feb 2020
    It’s time to move the debate on and put in place the detailed steps necessary to get to net zero. An international organisation is needed to combine both analysis of the challenge and the development of practical solutions. The first task would be to give substance to the worthy but rather empty 2050 commitments…So far 20 countries have now signed up to the pledge of delivering net zero by 2050, while more than 100 are discussing the target…

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  • #
    Matt

    So how is it that these people are winning the political game? Net zero emissions, electric cars by 2035, renewables, renewables, renewables and no matter which side of politics you’re looking at there is someone on every side saying we have to do more to reduce CO2 emissions. How is it that there is no champions of the truth cutting through the lies and manipulation? Do main stream media imbeciles truly believe that their brave new CO2 neutral world will have no affect on them or their families? What is the cost Mr (Shorten) Albanese? Why can’t you tell us how much it will cost?

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    • #
      Sapel Mirrup

      There are some champions out there, but since they are fearless people (or who at least can oppose their fears with a good measure of courage), they are rather thin on the ground at the moment. Unfortunately the silent majority largely consist of those who are staking their future welfare on the ‘few’ (as in Churchill’s ‘few’)doing all the work for them and hoping that in time, the revelatory light will break through and a new conservative age will arise. These folk only speak via voting, which only comes around every few years. The nation would have to be well into a death spiral before they would finally emerge and fight, and possibly not even then. It’s very sad.

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    • #
      PeterS

      The real question one has to ask is why is this mania to reduce our emissions to save the earth from some mythical climate catastrophe is increasing in momentum in only certain countries like UK, NZ and Australia but not in others like China, India, Japan, Russia and the US. I don’t have an answer. Perhaps others can shed some light on it. Perhaps the mania will spread world-wide and if it does we’ll have to wait for someone to write a book about it all along the lines of the MEMOIRS OF EXTRAORDINARY POPULAR DELUSIONS AND THE Madness of Crowds written by Charles Mackay. Perhaps someone already has started. All I can say for sure now is both LNP and ALP, state and federal are committed to reducing our emissions as though our lives depended on it.

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Jo – FYI

    IIRC the weather station for Death Valley has been moved to be “more record conscious”.

    Might have been a mention at WUWT

    30

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    [snipped by request]

    20

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      [snipped]

      10

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        the man’s skin colour in this comment and context is irrelevant,

        No it’s not.

        Did it not have a green tinge around its gills?

        Was it not wearing the standard issue red socks of the closet socialist?

        Are you sure it was a man?

        Assuming gender is equally irrelevant the those of the green-red hue.

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    • #
      pat

      OriginalSteve -

      u want protests – go read the following on Jo’s “Tuesday Open Thread” thread:

      Globe&Mail Canada: Arrests made in B.C., Ontario blockades, as anti-pipeline protests spread

      25 Feb: ClimateChangeNews: Switzerland joins few nations confirming to UN it will enhance climate action plans
      By Chloé Farand
      Switzerland has become one of the first nations to confirm to the UN that it will enhance its emissions reduction target for 2030.
      But it gave scant details about its plan except that it would be part of a wider goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050…
      A Swiss government letter to the UN (LINK) did not give a timetable for when the new 2030 plan for cutting greenhouse gas emissions would be submitted…
      So far, only the Marshall Islands, Suriname and Norway have issued new NDCs…
      A theoretical deadline to submit updated plans to the UN by 9 February was missed by the rest of the world…
      https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/02/25/switzerland-joins-nations-confirming-un-will-enhance-climate-action-plans/

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    pat

    unbelievable:

    26 Feb: SMH: The end of coal-fired power can be managed or messy
    By Frank Jotzo and John Wiseman
    (Professor Frank Jotzo is with the ANU Crawford School of Public Policy. Professor John Wiseman is with the Energy Transition Research Hub, University of Melbourne and ANU)
    Coal is on the way out. The head of the world’s largest coal export port says it needs to prepare for the day it will no longer be viable to send coal from Newcastle to the rest of the world. And there is no doubt coal will disappear from Australia’s energy system, too. The question is just how quickly, and how messy this process will be. It is in the hand of governments to make the transition palatable.

    Net zero emissions for any country relies on a near carbon-free electricity system that can also supply clean energy in transport and industry. In Australia, that means replacing coal power with renewables and storage…

    The writing is on the wall.
    The new investment is invariably in wind and solar plants, with a smattering of battery storage and gas turbines. That is because wind farms and solar parks supply energy at far lower cost than a new coal power plant could or any gas plant can, let alone nuclear. That cost advantage is so great that it can easily pay for energy storage when it becomes necessary as much more renewable power is added to the grid. Right now, extra transmission lines are needed. The cost will be borne by electricity users, but even so electricity costs are likely to fall…

    Higher supply of renewables means lower prices in the market, and greater need to ramp coal plants up and down, putting extra stress on the machinery. Plants will exit, quite possibly faster than expected…

    This leaves the local community in the lurch, and gives state governments very little time to plan and implement regional strategies. It also puts the grid under extra pressure until replacement investments are made, and it drives up electricity prices as the tight supply reduces competition.
    There is no good reason to let this happen. A range of different mechanisms could make power plant exit predictable. All will mean accepting that governments need to take a role in managing the decline of this industry…

    Australia’s solar and wind resources can provide affordable, reliable energy for private consumers, and for our businesses and industries. Longer term, they could underpin new export industries in green hydrogen, steel and aluminium…
    Even if the overall economic picture ***looks bright, the transition will need careful planning and will often be difficult…
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-end-of-coal-fired-power-can-be-managed-or-messy-20200225-p5441n.html

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Yep…but it appears what it is being replaced with is effectively rainbows and unicorns….

      Ivory tower syndrome.

      By the way, has anyone actually seen green hydrogen? Do they colour it now?

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Unbelievable 2.

      Politics at its lowest ebb.

      A complete fabrication.

      Renewables are Not energy intensive and require much more physical structural mass and much more land area which is taken out of use for carbon sequestration.

      The renewables produce electricity which has a higher CO2 debt per kWh than coal fired power.

      So.

      Renewables are much more expensive!

      From cradle to grave renewables incur more CO2 debt than Coal units.

      Serious pollution issues exit in the mining of the rare Earth’s used in both wind and solar.

      Both produce DC and are structurally an engineering nightmare compared with coal fired plants.

      Safety is a serious issue in the erection and maintenance of the turbines.

      Decommissioning following the short lifespan of Renewables is an ongoing cost that is often left for our “children and children’s children”.

      The Only good that comes from Renewables is to those hiding behind the false image of doogooderism, and it is Very Substantial, just ask MalEx444.

      Unbelievable squared.

      KK

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    • #
      GD

      The new investment is invariably in wind and solar plants, with a smattering of battery storage and gas turbines

      They’ll need more than a ‘smattering’ to replace the current 80% of power provided by coal.

      This situation would be laughable if it wasn’t so dire and tragic.

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      • #
        Graeme No.3

        The ‘funny’ thing is that wherever the subsidies have been reduced or cut, investment in renewables dries up.
        See Germany, the UK (for onshore wind), even China.

        There are isolated places e.g. the Falkland Islands and South Australia, where wind cuts the consumption of (imported) diesel.

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    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      Green hydrogen?

      Let me tell you a story ’bout a man named Joh ….

      “Brisbane’s City Plaza was buzzing as the revolutionary vehicle was unveiled on July 14, 1980.

      It might have looked like any other 1974 Ford Fairlane, but Horvath insisted that under the green bonnet was a device which could turn water into hydrogen via a controlled, thermonuclear reaction.

      Joh was an inventor himself and the fact he had let himself be duped by such a ridiculous scam made Queensland a national laughing stock.

      Undeterred, Joh announced plans that Queensland would exclusively manufacture this automotive marvel.

      Queensland Rail even selected a diesel-electric locomotive for conversion to hydrogen power and Horvath announced plans to convert the Howard coal-fired power station, near Maryborough.”

      1980: https://www.couriermail.com.au/archive/news/horvaths-hydrogen-fairlane/news-story/24fddbda2900f1d0ac4b40083f858c2f

      It’s deja vu all over again.

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  • #

    [...] is going on here! Jo Nova reports that Marble Bar no longer holds the record for a prolonged high [...]

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    pat

    always amusing when some “progressive” leftie shows some love for the CIA, FBI… or the Military, as is the case here. first, the writer:

    Michael T. Klare is a Five Colleges professor of Peace and World Security Studies, whose department is located at Hampshire College (Amherst, Massachusetts, USA), defense correspondent of The Nation magazine and author of Resource Wars and Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Petroleum Dependency (Metropolitan). Klare also teaches at Amherst College, Smith College, Mount Holyoke College and the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
    Klare serves on the board of directors of the Arms Control Association. He is a regular contributor to many publications including The Nation, TomDispatch and Mother Jones, and is a frequent columnist for Foreign Policy In Focus.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Klare

    24 Feb: Vox: “All hell breaking loose”: How the Pentagon is planning for climate change
    It’s good that the US military is thinking about climate change — but it’s nowhere near enough.
    By Alex Ward
    Extreme temperatures. Collapsing countries. Wars on multiple continents. Simultaneous natural disasters. And a US military completely unprepared to deal with it all.
    Welcome to all hell breaking loose.
    That’s not the plot of some apocalyptic novel — it’s a scenario the Pentagon is deeply concerned could happen in the not-so-distant future due to climate change…

    A new book, aptly titled All Hell Breaking Loose: The Pentagon’s Perspective on Climate Change, reveals the Pentagon is far more worried about the potential impacts of climate change than most probably realize…
    I called up the book’s author, Michael Klare, to find out more about what the US military is so worried about, what it’s trying to do about it, and whether any of it will be enough to mitigate the coming challenges.
    Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, is below…READ ON
    https://www.vox.com/2020/2/24/21145687/climate-change-usa-military-book-interview

    25 Aug 2019: LibraryThing: All Hell Breaking Loose: The Pentagon’s Perspective on Climate Change
    by Michael Klare (Author)
    DavidWineberg’s review
    …The military is striking out on its own, Klare says. They are looking at redesigns with a goal of “net zero” fossil fuel consumption. They are leaders in biofuel and solar. They are converting to electric vehicles far faster than the country itself…
    They are putting solar panels on tents and backpacks – anything to make themselves more self-sufficient…
    But the most striking thing about All Hell Breaking Loose is political, rather than environmental, though Klare downplays it. Despite the president’s direction to eliminate all references to climate change, the military is focused on it. Despite rollbacks of rules and laws and gagging of science and scientists, which the president characterizes as a Chinese hoax, the military says there is no alternative for them; it’s what they face in the world and they need to master it. Wisely, they don’t flaunt it, but the orders, manuals, strategies, roadmaps and buildouts are clearly climate change oriented, in total defiance of their commander in chief. Operating a base under water is not an option, regardless of political fashion. The top brass stand their ground in Congressional hearings, despite badgering by the more extreme lawmakers, as Klare shows. The military sees climate as a real threat and possibly the biggest threat on a global scale. Therefore it must focus on it, cope with it and seek to overcome it. Or at least remediate the damage from it.

    ***“At some point, officers who view national security as a sacred obligation will have no choice but to confront those who persist in climate denial,” Klare says at his most definitive. I wish the whole book was written like that.
    http://www.librarything.com/work/22608713/reviews/172560865

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    pat

    far too many people going to Universities:

    25 Feb: TheConversation: To prepare climate strikers for the future, we need to rewrite the history books
    by Amanda Power, Associate Professor in Medieval History, University of Oxford
    PIC: Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg attends a climate strike outside the Swedish parliament, December 20 2019
    If radical action to reduce emissions isn’t taken in the next decade or so, many of today’s schoolchildren could live in a world that’s 3℃ or 4℃ hotter by the time they enter their later years. Their working lives would be defined by routine weather extremes, widespread crop failures and catastrophic sea level rise.

    With such grim prospects, the natural question facing young people is how did we get here? School climate strikers and the student-led Teach the Future campaign have called for wholesale reform of the education system to help answer this, and prepare the younger generation for facing a future of intensifying climate and ecological crisis.
    But the UK currently has no formal training or support for teachers to carry out “climate education”…

    The situation is now so bad that simply telling the truth about the climate crisis in the classroom also raises serious questions about the effect on a child’s mental health. Parents could be forgiven for not wanting their children to hear it…

    History teaching could also look at climate change in the past and investigate how societies weathered environmental stress. Modern science could be recast as a tool that helps societies mitigate problems like climate change, rather than an engine of progress…
    https://theconversation.com/to-prepare-climate-strikers-for-the-future-we-need-to-rewrite-the-history-books-131857

    Profile: Amanda Power
    https://theconversation.com/profiles/amanda-power-649771

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    WXcycles

    I saw this 30 something male pencil-neck presenter (with glasses) on Sky in the afternoon last week, insinuating that people who think BOM is corrupt are conspiracy theorists. I didn’t get his name. I went searching from him but could not ID him online, so he must be new, but I’ll find out who he is. He’s a credulous dope though.

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      Kalm Keith

      It might be Tom.

      I saw him interview Malcolm Roberts and he kept cutting Malcolm off and talking over him.

      Nasty stuff.

      KK

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    [...] The historic heat wave at Marble Bar, Australia. [...]

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    Zigmaster

    I’m not a statistician so I have never understood the magic world of algorithms. People refer to them in relation to stock market decision making as some computerised program that makes buy and sell decisions. Whatever the adjustment mechanism is for a piece of equipment one would suspect that the data adjustment should be consistent . If the equipment reads temperatures :5 of a degree or 1% of a degree too hot ,it should be a consistent adjustment to all data. I don’t actually believe that the bureau makes the size of the adjustment a daily decision which varies daily due to whether there was cloud cover or rain on any particular day. A clock that is broken will be wrong by a consistent amount even if that error is increasing ( or decreasing).
    The fact that consecutive day adjustments vary so substantially would I think be proof of randomised adjustments. Without a formula that can be applied to the whole dataset one would have to assume that these adjustments are made by an individual . The failure of the BOM to provide information so the data adjustments can be scrutinised is basically a major scandal and reflects similar mindset seen in Michael Mann’s comments about his hockey stick graph saying something like “ why should I release my methods when all your aim is to prove I’m wrong.” This is so unscientific. The reality is people want release of methods and data to prove the science is right not to prove it wrong. It might be a change in emphasis but in this debate we’re the good guys. We are the auditors that help make people feel good about their claims. But auditors can’t do their job if the client doesn’t provide all the information. The discrediting of the hockey stick graph has been pivotal in convincing many of the integrity ( or lack of ) of the science in this debate . A similar discrediting ( or crediting) of the BOM Acorn adjustments would be equally pivotal.
    It’s about time the government audited the BOM because without a proper independent audit how can one trust anything that emanates from the BOM.

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  • #
    dp

    This seems in principle to be indistinguishable from counterfitting money, temperature being the currency of climate alarmism. Without it they are bankrupt.

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    Travis T. Jones

    The BoM’s “official” records no longer match the digitised historical records of Trove/ The National Library of Australia.

    What’s wrong with that?

    “Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.”
    George Orwell, 1984

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    Ian George

    Climate summary statement from 2011.

    ‘The Australian area-averaged mean temperature in 2011 was 0.14 °C below the 1961 to 1990 average of 21.81 °C. This was the first time since 2001 (also a wet, La Niña year) that Australia’s mean annual temperature was below the 1961–90 average.’

    Both years have now been adjusted up so those two ‘below average’ years have disappeared.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries

    All the annual mean temps from at least 1995 to 2017 have been adjusted up. Something else Craig K can research.

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    What are people’s opinion of Postma and his sun-only theory?

    https://phzoe.wordpress.com/2020/02/25/deducing-geothermal/

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      Kalm Keith

      “We will use some basic data from NASA:

      Solar irradiance (W/m2): 1361

      Bond albedo: 0.306

      Average temperature: 15°C

      Diurnal temperature range: 10°C to 20°C”

      And there’s no doubt that the use of this data is absolutely and completely, really quite O.K.

      All you need to do is ignore the fact that the Earth is spinning and creating a 24 hour heating and cooling cycle with incredible energy use in the formation of the continuous “diurnal bulge”.
      Then it’s imperative that you ignore the clouds. Clouds are so, you know, Absent.

      I recently flew at an altitude of 11,500 metres agl and looking down on the evidence, aka, clouds, that millions of tonnes of water had been evaporated at huge lhv cost to the atmospheric energy budget. BTW the outside temperature was minus 48°C. Sometimes this situation turns ugly when more energy is relinquished by the suspended water and balls of ice head towards Earth’s surface like a photon shower. I think that we both agree that there is No downwelling, long wave radiation.
      Then in the “averaging game” there are two massive ice reservoirs contrasting with the equatorial zone.

      My point this: NASA may give a world average temperature, but using that in a Thermodynamic analysis is meaningless, unless, of course, the sole purpose of this analysis is to make money.

      The energy used in creating new momentum in the atmosphere constantly via the diurnal bulge, and other similar situations means that the simplistic “Energy in = Energy out ” doesn’t exist.

      KK

      This is Believable Functional Data??

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    Peter Fitzroy

    Weather vs climate (raw vs ACORN)

    The Hon Craig Kelly should be ashamed to promote such garbage.

    For those who disagree – look up how the ACORN dataset is constructed,, why it is done that way, and why it is not a weather record.

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      R.B.

      Peter, you are nowhere near good enough at science or maths to be insisting BOM got it right, especially as the exact method needed to replicate the work is not made public.

      On the other hand, “Marble Bar max was one whole degree too warm on 18 Nov 1923, but it was 0.6°C too warm on 19 Nov 1923, 0.3°C too warm on 20 Nov 1923, 0.2°C too warm on 21 Nov 1923, and 0.8°C too warm on 22 Nov 1923″ is enough to sow doubt in someone who left school at 16. Such corrections from zero data recorded in the area at the time. Its clearly shoddy.

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        Peter Fitzroy

        you do not understand now do you. BOM maintains several datasets, all taken from the the original recorded dataset (this is called ADAM, or in this case, RAW) all the data is available. To assert that a climate dataset removes the original weather is either naive or deliberately ignorant. Now since you think you have the chops to prove me wrong, bring it – where is your proof.

        By the way you can download the python scripts which are used to create ACORN – so maybe you could start there, and if you want to make personal attacks please use the bold like this “Peter, you are nowhere near good enough at science or maths”. That way I can understand that rather than show your working, you are just a drive by ad hom

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      el gordo

      Trewin has the code and it may require the services of an Auditor General to get hold of it, then all will be revealed, but I won’t hold my breath.

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      Ian G

      Hi Peter
      Please read my post at #48. By no stretch of the imagination could the BoM adjust all those temps when it has had top tech ethermometers since around 1996. Remember that ACORN only uses around 120 sites to measure the overall temps for Australia and these are supposed to be the most reliable sites.
      The BoM are quietly using adjusted/homogenised temps to change the temp record. Do your own research and you will see it doesn’t fit the explanations given.

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        Peter Fitzroy

        They did exactly as you say Ian G – except the homogenization (due to the need to apply a temp to a gridded system) is applied to the separate dataset called ACORN, not the original data held in ADAM. you can download both products

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        • #
          Ian G

          ACORN is becoming the weather record. The heatwave record for M B has disappeared, the two below average years this century have disappeared. The highest minimum for Canberra has disappeared and a new ‘record’ has been heralded.
          When every daily temp for Bourke in Jan 1939 was changed, it reduced the average mean below the three sites that were used to correct/homogenise it. Bourke went from the hottest site to the coolest.

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          R.B.

          They do not need to homogenize in order to grid the data.

          When they create maps showing Australia’s hottest whatever, they are using the data used to homogenize/adjust stations in ACORN. So comparing ACORN with actual recorded temperatures and criticism is important.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    The Marble Bar weather station, site number 004020, was not relocated from 1895 to 2006. Wasn’t “homogenisation” meant to be only used to compensate for station moves, even assuming it was a valid process?

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      Yonniestone

      Correct David,

      Site Dist Site name Start End Lat Lon Source STA Height (m) Bar_ht WMO
      004020 04 MARBLE BAR COMPARISON 1895 2006 -21.1756 119.7497 GPS WA 182.3 184.9 ..

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    David Maddison

    Why does BoM not publish their “homogenisation” methodology, thus making their data uncheckable and unreproducible (And therefore politics and not science)?

    Is homogenised data marked in some way, e.g. with an asterisk?

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    David Maddison

    What happens if the US NASA or NOAA homogenise their Death Valley records? Will Marble Bar be the record holder again?

    A homogenisation competition could go on indefinitely until both locations are sub zero (either in C or F).

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      Annie

      Not far off that here this morning! 2C at 0735, frost on the roof and woodstove lit. Cooked breakfast on it…yum!

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    Maptram

    Deniliquin Climate Data Online records show two stations for Deniliquin, the Information centre that opened in 1858 an closed in 2003. The current airport site opened in 1997, so data from the two sites can be compared for the period 1997 to 2003. The Info centre data for the period 1997 to 2003 is shown to the nearest 0.1°C while the Airport Centre site for the period 1997 to 2003 is shown to the nearest 1°C. After 2003 the Info Centre site closed and the Airport data was shown to the 0.1°C. Some data is shown in italics while most is shown in standard font.

    In both sets of data the BOM has a disclaimer that data in italics has not been fully quality controlled. When I saw the Marble Bar story it made me wonder whether the Marble Bar data, prior to the homogenisation, had been quality controlled. In other words, why was homogenisation necessary.

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    Kim

    One of the key factors of The Enlightenment is objectivity. That allowed the massive advancement in science and technology. The attack by the wokists \ warmists on objectivity is an attack on science and technology. It is a throwback to the feudal age – an age that they are so keen on bringing back.

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    A Crooks

    Journalists go on and on about “Government secrecy”. This is a classic example of Government secrecy in its methodology, its reasoning, and lack of transparency. Where are those guardians of truth – or do they really think they have the right to cherry pick which truth the public is allowed to know about?

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    pat

    26 Feb: AmericanThinker: Why the Greens Love the Coronavirus
    By William R. Hawkins
    There is one faction in the U.S. which hails the chaos and welcomes the economic decline: the Green movement. It holds that human activity is bad for the planet and thus anything that reduces human activity is a blessing. And this is not just the braying of a fringe group on the far Left. Its argument recently appeared in the New Republic, long the flagship of mainstream liberalism.

    “The Coronavirus’s Lesson for Climate Change: What society can learn from the tragedy’s impact on carbon emissions” appeared February 20, written by staffer Kate Aronoff. She is the co-author of A Planet to Win: Why We Need A Green New Deal and the co-editor of We Own The Future: Democratic Socialism, American Style…READ ON
    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/02/why_the_greens_love_the_coronavirus.html

    writer, Kate Aronoff, has a new piece, pushing the same barrow:

    26 Feb: NewRepublic: Kate Aronoff: We’re all on this sick Planet together
    The racist, right-wing isolationism favored by the Trump administration is as bad an answer to the coronavirus as it is to the climate crisis
    Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control warned that the United States should brace itself for a widespread outbreak of the novel coronavirus, known as COVID-19…
    Wall Street was responsive, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had tumbled nearly 900 points by the end of the day…
    Exploiting crisis is a common move in politics, especially on the right. And in reactions to the current coronavirus outbreak worldwide, there’s already a pattern emerging…

    White supremacy and closed borders are as poor an answer to the coronavirus as they are to the climate crisis and certainly won’t solve either problem, making life far more dangerous for many as the world warms. Like it or not, we’re all in this boat together…

    It’s not inconceivable that the nation could be in the midst of a full-blown outbreak when Election Day rolls around, as Jon Stokes pointed out this week at Wired…
    Failing to adequately prepare precincts for that possibility could spark a full-blown democratic crisis, with calls to postpone the vote or contest results. Dense urban areas—traditionally bastions of Democratic support—are likely to be hardest hit by a pandemic, and a low-turnout, in-person, mid-pandemic election could tilt results even more in favor of more conservative rural districts. The solution here isn’t all that hard, Stokes argued: make mail-in ballots the primary form of voting…

    COVID-19 is a tragedy, causing ample human suffering. It is also a test run for still-larger crises the U.S. and international community face as the earth warms, triggering food shortages, other types of epidemics, and mass migrations. The U.S. has no comprehensive plan for the coronavirus or climate crisis. As with climate, it can be hard to avoid lurching into dystopia in talking about COVID-19: We’ve all probably seen one too many pandemic and disaster flick…
    https://newrepublic.com/article/156673/trump-coronavirus-lifeboat-ethics

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      So, let me see if I’ve got this right.

      The Democrats are already looking for avenues to nullify the upcoming election result in the U.S. If President Trump wins, then, according to Democrats, he manipulated COVID-19 to win the election.

      So, in fact, COVID-19 is a Trump plot to steal the election.

      I just love the way they get their excuses lined up before the election.

      Tony.

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    pat

    26 Feb: Reuters: BP quits three key U.S. petroleum groups over climate divergences
    by Ron Bousso
    LONDON – BP said it will leave three U.S. petroleum trade groups, including the country’s main refining lobby, due to misaligned views over the energy transition to battle climate change.
    The decision comes after BP Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney, who took office earlier this month, set one of the oil sector’s most ambitious targets for curbing carbon emissions with a vow to “re-invent” the 111-year old company in the face of the climate challenge.

    The London-based company said in a report on Wednesday that it will quit the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), following similar moves by other European rivals.
    BP will also not renew its membership in the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) and Western Energy Alliance (WEA), it said.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/bp-lobbying/bp-quits-three-key-us-petroleum-groups-over-climate-divergences-idUSL5N2AQ4QB

    read all:

    25 Feb: WorldOil: BP’s “net zero” climate plan doesn’t quite add up
    By Akshat Rathi
    LONDON (Bloomberg) – After months of planning, BP’s new CEO Bernard Looney made his big green pitch: Europe’s second-largest oil company will cut its emissions to net zero by 2050, he said earlier this month. Many thought that made BP the world’s first supermajor to take responsibility for all its emissions.
    It did not do that.

    Every company has three types of emissions…READ ALL
    https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/2/25/bp-s-net-zero-climate-plan-doesn-t-quite-add-up

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    pat

    26 Feb: ABC: Lady Elliot Island Great Barrier Reef ‘island ark’ to protect against climate change
    ABC Wide Bay By Nicole Hegarty and Brad Marsellos
    The threat of climate change has led to the creation of a refuge for wildlife on Lady Elliot Island at the southernmost point of the Great Barrier Reef.
    Lady Elliot Island, a 20-minute plane flight from Bundaberg in Queensland, is seen as a natural haven or “island ark” and as the southernmost island in the reef it is expected to be one of the last and least affected by climate change.

    Researchers hope that it will become a refuge as local and global climate pressures force marine animals and bird life south to escape the heat.
    They are working to ensure the island is prepared for the influx of animals as part of a joint $2.4 million Great Barrier Reef Foundation, University of the Sunshine Coast and Lady Elliot Island Eco Resort initiative…

    Project leader Kathy Townsend, a senior lecturer in animal ecology at the University of the Sunshine Coast: “As climate change starts to kick in temperatures will increase in those northern areas and animals are going to be chasing that temperature gradient and we’re going to start to see a migration of thermal refugees moving away from these hotter areas into these cooler areas…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-26/lady-elliot-island-great-barrier-reef-climate-change-win/11998208

    26 Feb: ABC: Perth storm damages homes, brings down trees and causes peak-hour traffic chaos
    Video: A severe thunderstorm hammers Perth, leaving a trail of destruction.
    A severe thunderstorm has struck Perth and surrounding parts of Western Australia, bringing damaging winds, heavy rainfall and hail and causing chaos in peak-hour traffic…

    Perth received 14 millimetres of rain in the space of half an hour during the storm…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-25/severe-thunderstorm-in-perth-damages-homes-brings-down-trees/12000534

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    TdeF

    Michael Mann would be proud of the BOM. Alter the past, fake the future and hide your calculations. As Dr. Tim Ball joked, more State Penn than Penn State.

    Our BOM has done the one thing no scientist is ever permitted to do, alter the raw data, retrospectively, a century in the past.
    And publish that data as the actual data. Cooling the past. And we know why.

    This is not science, it is political science. Fake science. And like the Thalidomide tragedy, they all get away with a total betrayal of trust.

    Sell the ABC/SBS/BOM/CSIRO. We do not need them. F*ke news, f*ke racism, f*ke weather and f*ke research. At our great expense.

    Let them convince someone else they are doing valuable work. Like the IPCC.

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      TdeF

      And this is clearly part of the deep state push to alter the past and so heat the future as Australia’s data represents 1/3 of the planet at that time.

      All brought to you by public servants to support the extreme leftist push to cripple Australian energy supplies, crush Australian manufacturing, farming, defence capacity and independence. All by faking a few thermometer readings from a century ago. Unbelievable. We owe no thanks to the perpetrators of this incredible perversion of science and deliberate corruption of the best data in the world at the time.

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    R.B.

    Excuse me if it’s already been pointed out. I still haven’t had a chance to read it all.

    Port Headland has a good record for that period and is about 150 km away. Most days were closer to 30 than 37 because it’s on the coast. For March 7 to 10, maximum temperatures were 37.5, 39.1, 38.1 and 38.9, respectively. Surely the inland Marble Bar was at least 38.2 on March 8 1924.

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      TdeF

      And surely any real scientist would take the manual and careful reading of a thermometer every day and handwritten record in ink over a debatable computer smoothed projection created 100 years later?

      This is only one glaring and offensive example of reprehensible fake science altering the past at our expense and already to our great cost. Censure by parliament is essential. And an investigation as to how this happened and who is responsible. The idea that you can trust people in the BOM is clearly wrong. Why are all the adjustments always down? Cui Bono?

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    pat

    South-East Queensland: the free local rag, owned by Quest Community News (Newscorp), writes today (“Changing climates in focus” by Taryn Davis) that it is teaming up with Monash Uni to produce a dedicated weekly column about local weather patterns… it will source local data from nine weather stations across the southeast corner, to provide graphics and climate trends over 20 to 50-year periods.
    it then quotes Dr. Christa Pudmenzky, climate scientist & Research Fellow, Uni of Southern Qld: “if you really show people the science behind the weather they can make up their own minds about changes they can make,” she said…etc. doesn’t say if Pudmenzky will be involved in these weekly columns.

    LinkedIn: Christa Pudmenzky, Research Fellow (Extreme Climate Applications)
    International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland
    Aug 2010 – Present
    She is currently employed as a Research Fellow (Extreme Climate Applications) at the University of Southern Queensland working on the Forewarned is Forearmed project and the Northern Australian Climate Program project developing an Australian Drought Monitor and drought indices suitable for Australian conditions…
    Since 2014, Christa has been an Expert Team Member within the United Nations/World Meteorological Organisation on the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology and Commission for Climatology. She also has been actively involved in the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative recovering historical weather data to underpin 3D weather reconstructions (reanalyses) spanning the last 200-250 years for climate applications and impacts needs worldwide…
    https://au.linkedin.com/in/christa-pudmenzky-942abb16

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    Bulldust

    I see the ABC has been trying to chase down climate sceptics with vigour:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-27/who-are–scientists-professionals-who-say-no-climate-emergency/11734966

    One wonders if this is an honest exercise, or more like doxing light. Imagine their shock when they found a lot of the sceptics weren’t interested in being interviewed by the ABC, and some even had the audacity to hang up on them before interviews were concluded. Can’t begin to imagine why…

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      pat

      Bulldust -

      didn’t see your comment before posting same.

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        TdeF

        The 4 Key points from RMIT ABC Fact check

        “Many of the Australian signatories have current or former connections to the mining industry.”

        As Australia’s biggest industry, it would be hard to find people who were not connected in some way.

        “Less than 19 per cent of Australian signatories were verified by Fact Check to have held an academic position, or published peer-reviewed research.”

        They are saying people who did not research at a university are not qualified? That would mean all doctors are unqualified to practice medicine. Or engineers to practice engineering.

        “The majority are listed as working or previously working in fields unrelated to climate science or the environment.”

        So only a member of the exclusive self appointed Climate Club are allowed to have an opinion on the new Climate Change
        science. That would exclude all meteorologists. Which is exactly how the 97% fake number was created

        “Over 90 per cent of Australians on the list are male.”

        In this bizzaro Woke world the validity of science opinion is now dependent on genitalia? In gender neutral Sweden, 90% of engineers are male and 90% of nurses are female. That is a result of choices, not scientific sexism and irrelevant to the validity of an opinion. It is in fact a sexist comment.

        And I was one of those who signed, so its off to the knackery for me so that my opinion is acceptable to Woke Climate Scientists and fact checkers.

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    Cork Hayden

    Fear Not! NOAA will reduce the 1923/24 temperatures in Death Valley so that the record can return to Australia!.

    Old Soviet joke: We know what’s happening now. It’s the past that keeps changing.

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    pat

    if you imagine the CAGW thought police at theirABC/RMIT FactCheck are interested in BoM/ACORN data manipulation, you would be mistaken (as if you didn’t know). this is more their style:

    27 Feb: ABC/RMIT FactCheck: Who are the 75 Australian ‘scientists and professionals’ who say there is no climate emergency?
    Updated 16 minutes ago
    Principal researcher: Matt Martino, online editor
    Additional research: Christina Arampatzi
    Periodically, petitions containing the signatures of “scientists” who are sceptical of human-induced global warming emerge, which seek to counter the views of climate scientists.
    Liberal backbencher Craig Kelly highlighted one such recent petition on Facebook in October.
    “WHY ARE THEY IGNORING 500 SCIENTISTS & PROFESSIONALS?” Mr Kelly’s post began, which reproduced in full a petition known as the European Climate Declaration, declaring there is “no climate emergency”…

    The list of signatories on the petition includes 75 Australians — the second highest number of any country.
    So, who is behind the petition and who are the Australian signatories? And how many are scientists?…
    Fact Check’s investigation focuses on the version presented by Mr Kelly in October, 2019…

    Fact Check also asked Mr (Viv) Forbes for help in this endeavour; he also declined.
    In an email, Mr Forbes speculated that “most of [the signatories] would hang up quickly if you phoned them and explained your purpose as most of them would have zero faith in the ABC to be impartial. They would see it as just another sneaky aspect of the ABC’s partisan promotion of climate alarmism”…

    What did fact checking organisations in other countries find?…READ ON
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-27/who-are–scientists-professionals-who-say-no-climate-emergency/11734966

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    Furiously curious

    Worked out in the spinifex an hour South of Port Hedland, and an hour South of Marble Bar, mid 1981-mid 1983. Cool times according to the graphs. We can adapt to a lot of extremes. Driving into Port Hedland to fly out for the Christmas break 1981, and they were announcing over the radio a new PH record temp, 48.7.
    On the Shaw river South of Marble Bar, by mid August it was hitting 100F, and pretty soon 44-45C was normal. 38* you’d be pulling a on jumper. It cooled down with a cyclone after Christmas 1982. Talk of it being best to knock off if it got to 50*, but it never did. 47-48 pretty normal. Ah to be young again.

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      RickWill

      I spent a few years in the NW. Can relate to this:
      https://www.perthpoms.com/topic/208-a-diary-of-a-pom-in-karratha/

      In the mid 1970s one of the Dampier town services electricians told a story of a housewife who migrated from central Europe with her husband who worked on the railways. Electrician was doing the annual check just before Christmas and wondered why the woman had the air-conditioner set on minimum and the oven full bore with the door open. She got the message across that she was homesick and was trying to make the place like the home she remembered at Christmas.

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    Serge Wright

    This raises the question as to why the BOM needs thermometers. After all, what is the point of spending all that time, effort and money taking these measurements, only to throw them in the bin and replace the measurements with a new value based on their new age climate ideology.

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    pat

    who will factcheck theirABC?

    ABC’s Holman says worldwide more than 70 countries have made the pledge to net zero by 2050, including the EU, which has signed up as a bloc.

    AUDIO: 7m32s: 27 Feb: ABC Breakfast: Fran Kelly: How Australia’s emissions commitments compare with the world
    Reporter: Julia Holman
    PIC: night, chimneys, “smoke”
    Mining giant Rio Tinto is the latest business to commit to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, joining Microsoft, Amazon and Nestle, which have also made the pledge…
    But there’s no sign of Australia committing to that net-zero target, despite scientists arguing every country needs to do so to prevent dangerous climate change.
    Featured:
    Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister
    Scott Morrison, Australian Prime Minister
    Angus Taylor, Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister
    Richie Merzian, director, Climate and Energy Program, The Australia Institute
    Tristan Edis, director, Green Energy Markets
    Antonio Gueterres, secretary general, United Nations
    Jan Burck, senior adviser, German Watch
    Emma Heard, chief executive, Investor Group on Climate Change
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/how-australias-emissions-commitments-compare-with-the-world/12005288

    reminder:

    We need a world institution for climate and energy
    Financial Times – 23 Feb 2020
    So far ***20 countries have now signed up to the pledge of delivering net zero by 2050, while more than 100 are ***discussing the target…

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      pat

      ex-BBC Richard Black’s mob ECIU. closely check the “net zero” status of each country:

      ECIU: NetZeroTracker: 202 scorecard
      https://eciu.net/netzerotracker

      THE SPIN:

      26 Feb: ClimateChangeNews: UK’s Nigel Topping seeks broad movement to drive global economy to net zero by 2050
      By Chloé Farand
      Nigel Topping said he hoped 60% of world economic output will be generated in areas which have a 2050 goal of net zero emissions by the end of the UN climate talks in Glasgow, in November, up from 49% now in an estimate by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit think-tank…
      https://climatechangenews.com/2020/02/26/uks-nigel-topping-seeks-broad-movement-drive-global-economy-net-zero-2050/

      25 Feb: EnvironmentAnalyst: Half of global economy pledging net zero
      Almost half of global GDP comes from areas where authorities have ***proposed a target of net zero emissions by 2050, research from the London-based think tank Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has found. The proportion has tripled since similar data was released in June 2019, when only one-sixth of the global economy pledged a net zero target…
      The ECIU’s Net Zero online tracker found $39trn (£30trn) or 49% of global GDP, came from countries, regions and cities which have an agreed or ***proposed target of net zero emissions by 2050.
      In total, 121 countries are included in the figure. These countries ***either have a target under political discussion, a declared target or where legislation is either under development or has been introduced. Two of these countries, Suriname and Bhutan, are already carbon-negative…
      https://environment-analyst.com/mis/95970/half-of-global-economy-pledging-net-zero

      just for fun – no diversity here!

      Environment Analyst Market Intelligence Service: TEAM
      https://environment-analyst.com/mis/team

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    pat

    blame gas. he said, he said. read all:

    27 Feb: ABC: Gas giants misled governments and it is costing Australian jobs, ACCC boss says
    By Stephen Long
    The head of Australia’s consumer watchdog has slammed the gas industry, accusing it of misleading governments into approving massive gas export projects that have led to soaring power prices, killing off companies and jobs.
    “A lot of the things that Australian governments, politicians, were told when those projects went ahead, turned out not to be true,” Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) chairman Rod Sims told ABC News in an exclusive interview.
    “So I think the gas industry as a whole certainly has to carry a lot of blame for the mess. And it is a mess that we are in; the companies that are closing down and [then] the trouble this is causing for Australian manufacturing and Australian jobs.”
    “The gas companies assured governments that the local market would be fine, that prices wouldn’t go up. And that turned out not to be the case.”…READ ALL
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-27/gas-giants-misled-governments-accc-boss-rod-sims-says/12004254

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      Dennis

      The ABC journalist is Stephen Long, if you look at his reports history you will quickly see a bias against fossil fuels and promotion of renewables.

      Read the article you posted and there are many clues as to his motive.

      In short, he claims that export gas and local shortages have caused electricity prices to rise because gas fired power stations are paying more for gas supplies. Coal is the main fuel in Australian power stations but gas is used as “firming” for renewables.

      To blame the gas situation for electricity pricing overall, as apart from one of the reasons, is ridiculous propaganda.

      The export gas agreement that is being exploited, as ACCC Chairman Rod Sims has identified, was signed by PM Gillard and Treasurer Swan, Labor.

      He did not mention the recent Agreement signed between the NSW State Government and the Federal Government for release of substantial new gas supply into the East Coast market, and negotiations continuing with the VIC Government.

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      Geoffrey Williams

      ‘misleading governments into massive gas exports’
      If this was in Asian countries we would call it corruption ! ! !
      GeoffW

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        Kalm Keith

        Undoubtedly it still is corruption but the system is broken and can’t do its job of eliminating corruption from democratic process.

        Does that mean we can’t trust government?

        KK

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      RickWill

      How could the cost of gas be an issue when it is being replaced with ambient energy, which we are constantly reminded is free.

      Seems like a wise move to export as much gas as possible now because no one will want it when the whole world is running on free ambient energy. That will be within 30 years when all the countries on earth have achieved their net zero CO2 target.

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    David Maddison

    Catastrophic global warming is a political ideology, not a scientific fact.

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    Another Ian

    I alerted some friends to this post. Reply from one:-

    “Re Marble Bar and adjustments generally. H.G. Wells must be in awe of this amazing Time Machine “

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    TdeF

    Man made excess CO2 caused catastrophic global warming causing disastrous Climate changes to be precise.

    An idea which is so far fetched and utterly unproven that you cannot believe anyone gives it any credit. Cui Bono.

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    pat

    26 Feb: Ex-cyclone Esther bringing heavy rains to the north and could loop towards the middle of Australia, says BOM
    NT Country Hour By Carmen Brown and Matt Brann
    Updated about 2 hours ago
    Ex-tropical cyclone Esther is tracking an unpredictable path across northern Australia and could loop towards central Australia next week, with the Bureau of Meteorology describing it as “a remarkable system”…

    While earlier forecasts suggested the low could re-develop into a severe category 3 or 4 cyclone off northern WA, that is now unlikely.
    However, (Bureau of Meteorology duty forecaster Angeline) Prasad said the system was quite unpredictable.
    “What is interesting is this system is maintaining its structure as it moves west across the base of the Top End, which normally doesn’t happen,” she said.
    “Most cyclones, especially weak cyclones, get destroyed by friction as soon as they move over land, so within 24 hours there’s not much left.
    “Esther has done something very remarkable, it’s maintaining its structure
    “The reason it may quickly develop into a tropical cyclone again is because it’s maintaining its structure as it moves across land so we cannot yet rule out that possibility.”…

    Widespread falls between 150 and 250 millimetres have been recorded in many areas over the past 48 hours…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020-02-26/bom-says-ex-tropical-cyclone-esther-could-reintensify/12001432

    27 Feb: SMH: Australia’s hot, smoky summer comes to a soggy end in Sydney
    By Peter Hannam
    Sydney’s smoky, sweaty and dry start to summer has come to a soggy and stormy end to what will be one of the country’s three hottest seasons on record.
    With just a couple of days to the end of summer, the harbour city will likely end February with temperatures averaging about 27.3 degrees for the season, according to Ben Domensino, a Weatherzone meteorologist. That is about 1.7 degrees above the long-term average for Observatory Hill, in Sydney’s CBD…

    December alone was the driest in the city’s records going back to 1858, with just 1.6 millimetres of rain.

    Heavy rain soaked the city with the heaviest four-day deluge earlier this month, bringing February’s total to 441.8 millimetres so far. All up, Sydney has collected about 514.6 millimetres, making it the city’s wettest summer since 1991-92, Mr Domensino said…

    Mr Domensino said while this season may have felt milder than some recent summers, “prior to this season, the country’s three hottest summers on record have all occurred in the last decade – 2012-13, 2017-18 and 2018/19″…
    For the coming autumn, the odds favour average rainfall for NSW and warmer than normal temperatures.
    The background warming with climate change means above-average temperatures are very much the norm…
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/australia-s-hot-smoky-summer-come-to-a-soggy-end-in-sydney-20200227-p544tf.html

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    pat

    cut out the emotional drivel, ABC:

    27 Feb: ABC: BOM’s autumn outlook forecasts a generally drier north and wetter south
    ABC Weather By Kate Doyle
    ***As the traumatic summer officially creeps to a close, it is with weary eyes that we look to what autumn might hold.

    There is a glimmer of hope for large parts of the southern states hanging out for more rain — a 60 to 70 per cent chance of wetter-than-average conditions.
    It’s an especially welcome forecast for South Australia, which has largely missed out on the rain so far this year, but parts of the continent’s north are expected to be dry.
    Temperatures are forecast to largely be above average, although neutral daytime temperatures are forecast in the south.

    The summer, which is longer than usual ***thanks to the leap year, will crawl to a close on Saturday night
    Official numbers won’t be processed until then, but it will surprise few that, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, it is looking like summer 2019-20 will be in the top three years of records for daytime temperatures.
    As a whole, summer was drier than average, following on from years of drought and combining with high temperatures to bring about such a horror fire season.

    But there was, of course, the big change mid January, which brought flooding rain to the east.
    This change was the result of two big climate drivers backing down midsummer, according to BOM senior climatologist Andrew Watkins…READ ON
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-27/bom-autumn-outlook-forecasts-generally-drier-north-wetter-south/12005560

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    melbourne resident

    Dont look at the record years – look at all the years up to the 1990s. Why were BoM so wrong in 1990 that that has to be adjusted down in Acorn 2?

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    John

    Who are the high priests inside BoM who are making these changes to the official record?

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    Dennis

    I strongly recommend people to use the link at the beginning of this article “he has taken this to the Australian Parliament”, read the story and watch the video.

    Disgraceful gagging by Labor of Craid Kelly MP, more people should see these dirty tactics, and protection of the BoM.

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    JCalvertN(UK)

    The errors at any given site are unique to it.. If they need to be corrected at all, then the amount of correction should be determined from knowledge of the sources of error at that site.

    The temperatures at a site 100 miles away should be irrelevant (except perhaps as a rough sanity check).

    The current system used by BOM (and worldwide) ensures that the errors at a station will infect the data of surrounding stations.

    Thought experiment: Imagine a station that would be perfect otherwise except for a sizable area of asphalt a short distance off to the WEST. Obviously, on days with a westerly wind, this station will be recording elevated temperatures (i.e. correct temperature + error due to siting issue).
    Let this station be homogenised against another one that is located 100 miles away. This second station would other be perfect, except that it has a large area of asphalt a short way off to the EAST. So, when there is a westerly wind, this station will be recording correct temperatures. But when there is an easterly wind it will be recording elevated temperatures.

    On westerly wind days, a spike in the difference between the two stations will (theoretically) highlight the siting-related error at the first station. And it if an adjustment is made, then no great harm is done to the first stations data.

    But on easterly wind days, when the first station is reading correctly, the second station (which is now reading incorrectly) will “accuse” the first station of a non-existent error. And if a homogenization adjustment is applied in spite of the fact that there is no error, then the error at the second station has now “infected” the data of the first station.

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    JCalvertN(UK)

    The errors at any given site are unique to it. If they need to be corrected at all, then the amount of correction should be determined from knowledge of the sources of error at that site.
    The temperatures at a site 100 miles away should be irrelevant (except perhaps as a rough sanity check).
    The current system used by BOM (and worldwide) ensures that the errors at a station will ‘infect’ the data of surrounding stations.
    Thought experiment:
    Imagine a station that would be perfect if it wasn’t for a sizable area of asphalt a short distance off to the WEST. Obviously, on days with a westerly wind, this station will be recording elevated temperatures (i.e. correct temperature + error due to siting issue).
    Let this station be homogenised against another one that is located 100 miles away. This second station would be perfect, except for a large area of asphalt a short way off to the EAST. So, when there is a westerly wind, this station will be recording correct temperatures. But when there is an easterly wind it will be recording elevated erroneous temperatures.
    On westerly wind days, a spike in the difference between the two stations will (theoretically) highlight the siting-related error at the first station. And if an adjustment is made, then no great harm is done to the first station’s data.
    But on easterly wind days, when the first station is reading correctly, the second station (which is now reading incorrectly) will “accuse” the first station of a non-existent error. And if a homogenization adjustment is applied (in spite of the fact that there is no error) then the error at the second station has now “infected” the first station’s data.

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    John

    Is there an overall (average?) RaW vs acorn graph for whole of Australia?

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      RickWill

      This link has the first report from the Technical Advisory Panel that reviewed the BoM homogenisation process:
      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/2015_TAF_report.pdf

      Figure 4.1 on page 17 answers your question. It shows the difference between the ACORN-1 fiddle and the actual data. You can see an asymptotic reduction in the difference of from 0.24C from the 1920s to being equivalent by 2015. It is clear that the past has been cooled.

      This and subsequent reports got next to zero press coverage. Very few people are aware of this damning finding. The 0.24C might not sound much but keep in mind that life on Earth ends when the temperature is 0.5C above the present level.

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        John

        You can see an asymptotic reduction in the difference of from 0.24C from the 1920s to being equivalent by 2015. It is clear that the past has been cooled.

        The 0.24C might not sound much but keep in mind that life on Earth ends when the temperature is 0.5C above the present level.

        Thanks.

        I was looking over the stats myself and came to about that conclusion – that they’ve cooled Australia’s past by about 1/4 of a degree, and the degree they’ve cooled it coincides with CO2 level. The stations Mahorosy focuses on with larger differences of +1 degree are more dramatic, but I think it’s the overall picture that matters. And indeed a quarter percent is very significant.

        I was reading more about Trewin’s background. I was a bit shocked to learn that Trewin was already committed to the idea of long term warming and that he developed ACORN to measure and confirm it.

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        NO NO NO.
        “Fig 4.1: Scatter plot of the difference between ACORN-SAT and AWAP mean temperature anomalies
        (Y axis depicts °C)”
        They call AWAP “RAW” but is is not even like observational data. It is a model that produces mostly theoretical infill. It is a time series of 2D maps divided up into lat and long grid cells that mostly never had thermometers in them.
        So “Fig 4.1″ is just another misleading detour away from reality.
        http://joannenova.com.au/2015/09/camouflage-illusions-in-the-matrix-same-mysterious-temperature-same-day-year-after-year/

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      Ian George

      John,
      Click on this BoM site and scroll down to see the changes that have been made to Aust’s mean raw temps.
      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/acorn-sat/#tabs=Methods
      Note how far 1914/15 has been reduced.

      The overall mean temp for Aust is 21.8C

      .http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Dtmean%26area%3Daus%26season%3D0112%26ave_yr%3D0

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    David Maddison

    For many decades computer programmers and modelers used to be taught the concept of GIGO, garbage in, garbage out.

    When did they stop teaching that?

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      sophocles

      When did they stop teaching that?

      Just about the same time CFCs were blamed fingered for creating ozone holes — somewhere eshortly after Du Pont Chemical’s CFC patents expired and anybody could make them – c. 1984 or so, the same year the British Antarctic Expedition rediscovered the ozone hole and changed its name from the “Antarctic Anomaly” to the Great Antarctic Ozone Hole …
      … right about the time science and history were re-written …
      … right about then.

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    Eddie

    Great (j)okes from tiny ACORNs grow.

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    Steve Scott

    Pssst, the bom link to the page on Jos blog does not work, but if you copy the link and remove the jo nova page it works.

    Steve

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    Don Gaddes

    The reason ACORN-SAT does not work, (and the data is kept secret,) is that it is a complete ‘fabrication’! They must be forced to release the data – WE PAID FOR IT.
    The Solar-induced X Factor Dry Cycle Hierarchy is ‘orbital’, moving East to West at 15 degrees/month – therefore, there can be no temperature, or precipitation ‘averages’ anywhere on the planet. The specific Dates and Start Longitudes of these Dry Cycles,(and the Wet/Normal Periods between them,) only repeat every 81 Years!
    Currently Australia is in a Wet/Normal Period – but the next Dry Cycle has started from 160d W in early February, 2020 and will reach Australia in May 2020 – lasting to early November 2020. (Thus, the next ‘fire season’ has the potential to be worse than the one just experienced.)
    The forecast of these Cycles,(to 2065) and the ‘mechanics’ behind them, is available as a free pdf from dongaddes93@gmail.com

    Another example of charlatan Global Warming fanatics sitting around with nothing better to do, is the so-called ‘Hole’ in the Ozone Layer.
    The Ozone Layer is a slave of Axial Spin,(along with the rest of the atmosphere.) THERE ARE NO HOLES – AND THERE NEVER WERE!
    More likely – the fluctuating production of Ozone,(O3) is a function of the break-down of water vapour,(H2O) by the ‘X Factor’ influence of the Dry Cycle Hierarchy. This is manifest in the predominantly ‘green’ hue,(Oxygen) of the Auroras.

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    Robert Gilliland

    According to BOMs website the changes were made because the station had moved in Nov 1944 although there is no documentation of this (ACORN-SAT station catalogue). Even if it had moved the records still stand for the original location.
    They homogenise the records in NZ also and apparently an inquiry was made into their methods. Guess who was asked to check out their methods etc. Yes you guessed it our own BOM.

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