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Sydney on blackout watch, people told to close windows and doors, turn off non-essential

In the largest city in a country with 300 years of coal left, yesterday the government asked a few million people to pull down the blinds on a midsummers day, to turn off the pool pumps, and not run the dishwasher from 4 – 8pm if they could avoid it. It was 42 degrees C.

Remember the good old days when the nation could afford to run the air con? Here in metropolis Australia, some days it’s better to bunker down in a few dark rooms with the air con at survival mode.

Welcome to Renewable World. What’s wrong with all those solar panels? Between dust storms and bushfires and the hail in Canberra,  possibly they are covered in dust or soot, or perhaps, holes.

Imagine how much productive brain power is being consumed. The whole nation (almost) is becoming involved in management of the  hypercomplex random generation network. As well as all those poles and wires and control rooms, we now need radio and twitter to send messages to the serfs to open and close windows, change their work schedules, or run out and click the pool pump off.

’Close your doors’: NSW’s power at capacity

Ben Graham, The Observer, Jan 23rd

The government is advising people reduce electricity demand for a few hours this afternoon, by:

· closing doors, windows and blinds to keep the heat out;

· switching off non-essential appliances such as pool pumps;

· cooling a minimum number of rooms; and setting air conditioners to 26 degrees.

“The peak period for power use in NSW is expected to be between 4pm and 8pm, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and we are asking consumers to reduce their demand during this period where it is possible and safe to do so.”

Plea to turn off power as St George and Sutherland Shire swelters

While the grid appeared to survive another day, things could easily get worse.  The peak heat of summer may (or may not) be over, but here in Oz, summer holidays are winding up, and school and industry will return to full demand in the next two weeks, yet NSW is already struggling. If there is a hot humid day in February, things may not work out so well.

Coming soon: no hot meals for you at dinnertime.

A fragile grid:

NSW on blackout watch as conditions worsen

Angela Macdonald-Smith

The Australian Financial Review

The power market operator has been forced to call on emergency reserves for the third time this summer to prevent potential blackouts in sweltering NSW as the electricity grid strained under the the impact of wild weather, generator outages and high demand.

Rural NSW power distributor Essential Energy said 890 customers affected by the devastating bushfires earlier this month remained without power, while a further 7600 lost power Thursday afternoon as fires reignited on the South Coast.

Mr McConnell [at The University of Melbourne's climate and energy college] said that while some weather forecasters were speculating the summer heat may already have peaked, the risks to supplies remained. “It would be a brave person to rest on their laurels now,” he said, pointing to the full restoration of industrial demand yet to come and with extreme heatwaves driving high demand still possible through March.

Mr McConnell said that as of early afternoon electricity demand in NSW was about 2000 MW higher than the same time on Wednesday amid temperatures approaching 40 degrees. Solar output also appeared to be lower, possibly due to the impact of dust storms.

The emergency reserves are known as the RERT scheme (Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader).

 

 

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Rating: 9.1/10 (114 votes cast)
Sydney on blackout watch, people told to close windows and doors, turn off non-essential, 9.1 out of 10 based on 114 ratings

224 comments to Sydney on blackout watch, people told to close windows and doors, turn off non-essential

  • #
    Curious George

    Enjoy warm temperatures, and a warm feeling that you are saving the planet.

    221

    • #
      hatband

      Most people are on board, not necessarily because the understand the science, but because they see the number of ICE cars on the road and the pollution emanating from CFPSs and wonder how that could be good for the air we breathe.

      So, rather than talk about less cars and much less CFPSs, it may be time to talk about the drastic effects meeting our Paris committments will have on our choice of diet.

      556

      • #
        el gordo

        Don’t worry about diet, the revolution has begun.

        ‘Striking French workers looking to bring the government to its knees in a dispute over proposed changes to the nation’s pension system upped the ante on Tuesday by pulling the plug on thousands of people in a massive power outage.

        ‘Between 30,000 and 35,000 people in suburbs to the south of Paris reportedly lost power after disgruntled energy workers flicked the switch.’ China Daily

        252

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          E G:
          And in The Netherlands the guaranteed retirement pension is under threat because of the low (or even negative) interest paid on the funds. The suggestions range from cutting the pension (likely to be unpopular wouldn’t you say?) or extra tax on ordinary workers, which might also be unpopular.

          90

          • #
            el gordo

            Low interest rates around the world is of concern and I have no answer.

            All this is happening just as the baby boomer bubble comes on tap, my sympathies go out to those on the bottom rung.

            60

          • #
            Graham Richards

            Don’t tell me the Socialists are running out of other people’s money!!
            Surely not!

            110

      • #
        Greg Cavanagh

        Wow, you really are a one-trick-pony hatband. Do you have any other opinions I wonder?

        232

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Look, we’ve already seen he’s got lots of opinions. At least three on any given topic – all mutually exclusive, too.

          101

      • #
        TedM

        I think you mean the steam from the CFPS.

        70

      • #
        Bulldust

        I wonder how long people will stay on board as the rationing of power becomes more and more like a soviet era economy (diseconomy?) We’ve already seen how much people are truly willing to pay when they are offered the option of paying off-sets in airline travel. Yeah they are really willing…

        Hatband, I’d like to think that you are more intelligent than you appear in print, but it is increasingly difficult to maintain that idea.

        Renewables, putting the ration back in power generation.

        221

      • #
        sophocles

        Hatband:
        You go first.
        You can then tell us all just how much you enjoyed your pickled crickets.

        32

      • #
        toorightmate

        Hatband,
        Unfortunately you and the vast majority of our population will not wake up until many people die in hospitals, aged care homes, etc due to NO POWER.
        This whole situation has come about for one very simple, basic reason – THE CO2 HOAX.

        181

        • #
          Zane

          Scientists have failed us. They should have torpedoed the entire CO2/Climate malarkey a long time ago. Firstly, carbon dioxide is not carbon. Secondly, it is a beneficial trace gas that has no impact on temperature or climate. Thirdly, at present fossil fuels are the most efficient and cost-effective way to power our civilization. People are not going back to living in grass huts – in the developing world, people want cars, flatscreens, smartphones, and new apartments in towers. Funny how people spend thousands of dollars in a jewellers for a small solid crystal of pure carbon and proudly display it!

          111

        • #
          hatband

          TooRight says:

          Unfortunately you and the vast majority of our population will not wake up until many people die in hospitals, aged care homes, etc due to NO POWER.

          Hospitals are on a separate line, the power never goes out there.

          Nursing homes are probably similar, they’ve got Generators anyway

          212

          • #

            As I have mentioned here a number of times, I was in Rockhampton during Cyclone Marcia.

            The power went off generally, in the whole area on The Friday morning at around 10AM, and was out for seven to ten days, except for the major Shopping Mall (Stockland) which had auxilliary power which came up the next morning when skeleton crews went back to work there, and both Coles and Woolworths lost everything in cool and cold storage, all thrown out, another enormous cost of blackouts, especially for all supermarkets of that size, where any power outage, even a small one is problematic and covered by strict regulations.

            However, on the Saturday morning immediately following the Friday of the Cyclone’s passing, and within 24 hours of the power failure, there was an urgent call on the radio for diesel to fill the emergency generators at the hospital, which, (via UPS) came on as soon as the power went off.

            The problem they had was that they could get diesel from wherever they usually did in normal times. Only now the servos had no power, so no ability to pump the plentiful diesel they obviously had, so while there was diesel, there was no way to pump it.

            The ‘specific’ call from the hospital, and in the form of a desperate emergency situation, broadcast constantly for more than an hour and a half was for a tanker which had diesel in it to go to the hospital so they could offload the diesel into the tanks for the emergency generators, and the hospital was in fact in pretty dire straits until that tanker arrived, and as it turned out, it was a ‘nick of time’ arrival of that tanker.

            This was a learning situation, because the power failure was a long one, so short power failures, even hours in length can be covered by short term running of those emergency generators before power comes back up, only this was a long situation, probably the first time something of this long nature had occurred, when the fuel tanks themselves became depleted.

            Tony.

            160

          • #
            yarpos

            “on a separate line” where do you get this stuff?

            if there is no generation it does not matter what line you are on

            71

            • #
              hatband

              Blackout means power is cut off to some areas, but not others.

              During the SEQEB Strike of 1985, the Power went off every night in the Suburbs, yet the Mater, PA, General Hospital, St, Andrews etc., all had continuous power.

              And no, it wasn’t because they arced up the generators.

              06

              • #
                AndyG55

                “And no, it wasn’t because they arced up the generators.”

                Please provide evidence for that statement.

                All major hospitals have an EPSS system.

                With a well maintained EPSS system you would barely notice a flicker as it switched on.

                52

          • #
            AndyG55

            “Hospitals are on a separate line, the power never goes out there”.

            Please provide evidence for that made-up statement. !

            42

          • #
            toorightmate

            R_U_B_B_I_S_H.

            12

        • #
          Russ Wood

          But a quick look at news (what news?) about the terrible state of South Africa’s economy will show that RELIABLE electrical power is vital to a functioning economy. “Load Shedding” was running again for the second half of 2019 and the economy shrank by a couple of percentage points. The loss to GDP was up in the billions (Dollars!), and industry is closing down all over the country, with corresponding loss of jobs. And why is this happening, even though SA hasn’t yet gone ‘green’? Plain and simple – massive corruption in the monopoly power generator, that saw huge thefts of capital. Added to that was the replacement of the experienced staffers in the name of ‘transformation’. And now, aging generation and distribution equipment is breaking down due to a simple lack of maintenance.

          40

      • #
        Fred Streeter

        Oh, don’t worry about CFPS or the ICE.

        I was training in London in the late 50′s thru to early 70′s.

        Road running; in all that traffic, and within choking distance of Battersea and Lot’s Road power stations.

        I’m still here.

        And pollution was real pollution in our day.
        You youngsters don’t know the meaning of the word.

        81

      • #
        cedarhill

        Right. Just removed Sydney from the vacation destination since they’ll likely run out of power during landings at the airport. At least that will keep the International Climate Panic folks at home although Greta will be given a special pass for world wide travel. First class you know.

        10

        • #
          AP

          The NSW government is chock full of idiots. In my past job I had to deal with them regularly. 50% are complete imbeciles. It’s really stunning when you have to try and explain stuff to them. Some departments don’t understand the technical subject matter of their own portfolios. Many – if not most – don’t understand the relevant laws. Laws are applied ad-hoc. Rules are made up on the fly. it’s a wonder NSW functions. Anyway, I’ve gone to a better place – beautiful Perth.

          40

      • #
        Hivemind

        I remember the good old days, when this sort of thing was only an emergency measure, eg NSW in the early ’80s had a massive cascade power failure.

        10

      • #
        Greebo

        So, now you speak for “most people”? Methinks the hatband may be a tat tight.

        00

    • #
      Graham Richards

      I hope the whole grid goes “belly up”. Not to spite the good citizens of NSW but to see the good citizens hunting idiot politicians with baseball bats!

      Hope you’re taking notes Mr Morrison!

      101

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    Common sense says build more power plants. Duh.
    Y’all have a green leadership there. I presume they are setting a very
    moral example for all by personal sacrifice. You know, like turning off the AC in govt office buildings,
    working from home (from the porch on a home where the AC is off) and chowing down on MRE’s because they have pulled the plug
    on the fridge.
    It’s really great when the elites set an example for the proletariat, as they almost always always do.

    511

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Unfortunately their version of common sense is to close down a coal fired power station or two to fix the problem .

      150

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Consider this possible situation :

      I have a house that I now cant cool ( perhaps it runs on reverse cycle heating & cooling ) becasue the power isnt available.

      So in many ways, my now $xxx,000 house is uninhabitable.

      I have in effect been evicted from my house by ( in the case of victoriastan ) the actions of the State.

      This is in effect a form of illegal compulsory aquistion…..

      191

      • #
        sophocles

        OriginalSteve @2.2

        You’re an engineer. Look into the Einstein-Szilard refrigerator. Turn it into a house refrigerator.
        Doesn’t need elec-trickery. Does emit a smidgeon of CO2 but as CO2 doesn’t cause Global Warming,
        you can cool your house as much as you like.

        It only requires a heat source, so on a hot day, you can dodge or evade CO2 emissions because
        you’ve got your source — the sky, with just a bit of piping and a mirror or two to get it into position.

        You could call it the The OriginalSteve Home Air Conditioner using the Einstein-Szilard Cooling Method.
        (Hey: I’m Serious! There could be Serious Money in this) :-D

        50

  • #
    Jim in Newcastle

    Surely with the introduction of smart meters we could turn off the power in those suburbs that voted green at the last election.

    820

    • #
      PeterS

      It won’t work that way. The power authorities who are now favouring renewables more and more will cut the power off to those who do not vote for the Greens.

      150

    • #
      ColA

      And you can guarantee that any of the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Traders have nothing to do with wind or solar!

      130

    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      Will smart meters become compulsory anybody know ?
      GeoffW

      40

      • #
        PeterS

        In effect they are. New homes must have them, old ones are having them replaced gradually with the explanation they are not making the old style analogue meters any more.

        80

      • #
        PeterS

        Mine were scheduled to be replaced but each time I asked for and was accepted a postponement. Three times so far over the past 2 years.

        90

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I think putting a 50 Hz RF filter on appliances would stop power to appliances being shut off, as it would stop any command signal getting through. I thinkthe idea behind the IoT is to get around this by using wifi or cellular signals to monitor real time usage. 5G is a pain as the antennas are quite small and harder to find ( and remove ) from a circuit board. Thankfully I have a copy of Pozar….

          Maybe someone can correct me here, but most smart meters I think are to make sure you get charged as efficiently as possible ( which usualy means higher power bills ) , I dont think smart meters can actually switch off the power unless wired to a contactor.

          Does anyone know if a smart meter in any australian state has been set up to drop out all power to a house on command? The contactor would have to be fairly beefy.

          My thinking is they would rather keep you on line and fleece you, than drop you out….

          80

          • #
            D. J. Hawkins

            I can’t say about OZ, but in the US there is a contactor (relay) inside the meter and that gets tripped remotely. They don’t turn off your electricity at the appliance level.

            90

          • #
            sophocles

            Have a look at Ripple Switching Australia and New Zealand both use/used it. It’s been in place for decades.
            You’ll have to condition your power to avoid that.

            AC-DC-AC conversion (240V-240V Invertors) will give you clean power.

            00

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            The higher frequency signal was originally used to turn the street lighting on/off, then your off-peak electricity hot water system on. From there it was used to keep digital clocks accurate. (Ever noticed how, after a blackout, that those sort of clocks e.g. a TV recorder are soon set to the correct time?

            It might be better to put a filter on the output of any device which sends stuff without you knowing e.g. those voice activated Siri and Alexa etc. which probably send stuff when you think they aren’t doing anything. How? I don’t know. Any electrical engineer interested?

            00

            • #
              yarpos

              the only digital clock I have seen restore to correct time either have on board batteries or synch to the Internet.

              20

          • #
            Bright Red

            Most smart meters have a mesh radio that forms part of a communications network. It is over this this network that usage and control signals are sent.

            10

      • #
        PeterS

        They are doing a similar thing with water meters. The new ones are claimed to pick up any leak, such a a slow drip due to the slight echo it produces. That’s what I’ve been told by someone who works in the that line. Not sure if it’ true though.

        40

      • #
        glen Michel

        Well, I’ve got a smart meter for my water and air is next. A bit like Monty Python’s Eric the half bee.

        40

      • #
        AP

        In WA the meter is compulsarily replaced with a “smart”meter but you can elect to have the comms card pulled out of it – as I have done. This is not mentioned in the letter notifying you of imminent meter replacement.

        10

    • #
      William

      Actually Jim, I disagree with cutting power to Green electorates first. I think every electricity user should have to declare whether they support renewables or whether they prefer reliable coal/gas/nuclear power generation. Then when the wind doesn’t blow, or blows to hard, and the sun doesn’t shine, power should first be cut to those who elected to have renewables in the mix.

      The other advantage to this is that we will then see what the real support for renewables is as I reckon most people will put comfort and reliability ahead of virtue signalling.

      130

      • #
        William

        I should add that anyone on the Grid who has solar panels and receives, or has received payment for electricity they have put into the grid, or who has received government rebates for installation should be the first to be blacked out as they are a) part of the problem, and b) they can generate their own power.

        80

        • #
          Lawrie

          When the grid goes down so do the rooftop panels. The main reason is that the grid is used to synchronise the solar. Without the grid the power from the panels is unstable and would cook motors and computers.

          110

    • #
      Greebo

      Great idea, but I can’t see AGL cutting power to their CEO.

      00

  • #
    Jonesy

    Surely there is one mech engineer with the balls to stand up at one of these power stations and get thheir face on the news and tell it how it is.

    210

    • #

      No likely. We are, quite literally, in another Dark Ages. Anyone disagreeing with the ‘accepted’ science is a heretic and will suffer a similar fate that every heretic has suffered throughout history. Heresy today may not result in the death penalty, but it often may as well be such when your livelihood and reputation is destroyed.

      230

    • #
      PeterS

      They do exists but I suspect they are threatened if they spoke up. Self-interest is very strong when you have a family to feed and a mortgage to pay. Same problem with scientists who in general support the CAGW hoax when I suspect deep down most don’t. The only way to fix that problem is for people to wake up and stop voting for parties that maintain the status quo.

      250

    • #

      This Quadrant article is part of the answer:

      How Green Zealots Take Over Councils

      170

      • #
        Dennis

        Councils, government departments and non government organisations lobby groups.

        Add activist organisation, Soros model Unions founded and funded GetUp for example, various media management propaganda units of spin doctors.

        Media.

        80

      • #
        PeterS

        Typical West-hating Marxists. I’m not amazed how we allowed such thinking to be so prevalent in our modern society. It’s a similar pattern to what happened to previous civilisations as they come tumbling down form their peaks. We could put a stop to it if we all learned from history but I suspect we won’t.

        120

        • #

          Most civilisations crumble from the inside. One you reach a certain level where people are healthy, fed, housed, educated and not overly wanting for anything, a sort of lethargy develops and then the barbarians attack.

          190

          • #
            PeterS

            And that brings us where we are now. Too many Australians are too apathetic, lazy and/or couldn’t give a damn. That of course will change when things go pear shaped, as usual.

            130

          • #
            ivan

            In other words that is the Tytler Cycle of History in action.

            00

      • #
        pattoh

        Don’t for one minute believe this is new.

        ICLEI is a well-established component of Agenda 21/30/50.

        The idea is to get local governments signed up & open the floodgates for “Policy Input “from Un-elected NGOs.

        A timely example of the “Accidental”colateral damage is seen as the NSW National Parks under the aegis of World Heritage listing of the Blue Mountains of being handed the Catchment Management of the Warragamba Catchment. It is 75% of the water supply to 1/6 of Australia’s population & 1/5 of it’s economy. Bugger all fire trail management & Bugger all controlled burning.

        Signing on for ICLEI allows critical components of policy which would normally flow down from the overarching elected Australian Government hierarchy to fall under the control of un- elected, un-answerable, corruptible bureaucrats from the UN.

        WTFU!

        291

      • #
    • #
      Bob-l

      I’m happy to do it, just gotta ask!

      Sent some engineering facts to Bolta yesterday and hoping he’ll pick it up.

      80

  • #
    Rafe Champion

    The emergency reserves are known as the RERT scheme (Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader).

    Does this mean telling big consumers to reduce their consumption (with some compensation for reduced production) until the crisis is over?

    Everyone needs to understand the “choke point problem”, that is the lowest point of supply of sun and wind, that can be next to nothing. Hence the need to maintain every MW of conventional power that we have and be prepared to depend on 100% conventional power several times a year.

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/01/04/wind-watch-and-the-choke-points-revisited/

    230

    • #
      Big Al

      It was called ‘spinning reserve’ in my junior years where a generator was running at much less than full capacity, with the boiler still fired up but not at full steam so that when the turd hit the fan the generator could ramp up to meet demand within a short time. Not instantly, of course, but the demand profile monitoring at central control could anticipate fairly precisely how quickly new capacity was required.

      Of course, the accountants controlling this didn’t like seeing money (coal) being burnt for no return (consumption) so smaller (more expensive per MW) gas (natural and diesel) turbines were employed that could be cranked up at short notice to meet the excess demand, but they don’t have the same inertia as a big steam driven generator that provides short bursts of kinetic energy for momentary dips when the sun hides behind a cloud.

      240

      • #
        robert rosicka

        That’s the crux of the problem big Al , instead of an engineer running the electricity network we have green economists .

        150

        • #
          toorightmate

          The crux of the problem is that no one is running the electrical network.
          But let’s all have a Royal Commission into the demise of Koalas on Kangaroo Island (which were there in almost plague proportions anyway).

          50

      • #
        Analitik

        The bigger issue than the fuel “wastage” is the investment in excess capacity that is needed to provide a high inertia spinning reserve. Add the additional underutilization due to “renewables” jumping the queue (courtesy of their “semi-scheduled” designation) and the net result is that no investors in their right minds will fund large thermal plants that are slow responding.

        CCGT plants can at least run in open mode (albeit inefficiently) in order to respond to rapid load changes. They (the AEMC under the guidance of the Federal Government’s emissions policies) have literally legislated coal plants from being commercially viable.

        90

        • #

          …..and the net result is that no investors in their right minds will fund large thermal plants that are slow responding.

          And therein lies the big ‘diversion’ in this whole debate.

          The consumption of electrical power follows a set in stone pattern EVERY single day, the Load Curve for power consumption, perhaps the single most utterly ignored thing in this whole debate.

          Let’s look at what happens in the cooler Months.

          At Midnight, power is ….. slowly decreasing to the overnight low at 4AM.

          Then it ….. slowly rises to the morning peak.

          Then it …..slowly decreases to a mid afternoon dip, nowhere near as low as that overnight low.

          Then it ….. slowly rises to the evening peak.

          Then it ….. slowly falls again to that overnight low.

          In the warmer months and Summer, after the morning peak, it continues to ….. slowly rise to a mid afternoon peak.

          Then it steadies off till around 8PM, when it ….. slowly falls back to that overnight low.

          It has done this now for, well, FOREVER, from the minute power supply was connected to a grid, and consumers began using power.

          Note how I purposely left those dots until the word ….. slowly.

          All of this slowly bit happens across hours.

          the only INSTANT in all this is when a single Unit of power generation drops off line completely, and at that single point, things come into play quickly to replace that lost power, but that’s the only INSTANT in this whole thing.

          Now, contrary to what every single person journalist tells you, coal fired power ramps up slowly, ramps down slowly, and ramps back up slowly.

          That ….. slowly is in absolute exact lockstep with what actual power consumption via the Daily Load Curve indicates.

          And it does that on the same basis as the Load curve does it ….. FOREVER, whilst ever coal fired power had been connected to the grid.

          All this cr@p about large thermal plants being slow responding, well that’s because they are. That’s exactly ALL they NEED to be.

          That’s the advantage of looking at those Load Curves. They know exactly when the power is required, and they know (again, fairly much exactly as well) how much power they will need. Those coal fired Units ramp up and down all day every day, day in day out, all year round, for anything up to 50 years, and read that again, FIFTY YEARS, every day.

          Everyone has been (quite literally) sucked in to believing a sound bite made from an instant look at a power total, without having looked at those very simple Load Curves on a daily basis, and then looking at them on a weekly, Monthly and yearly basis.

          I don’t just make this stuff up.

          Anyone can see it for themselves.

          And once you know what you’re looking at, it’s plain to see.

          I keep wondering what ALL these commentators will do once all of this becomes knowledge, and they realise they have been so completely and utterly wrong for soooooo long.

          Tony.

          220

  • #
    Drapetomania

    Common sense says build more power plants.

    Private sector is reluctant.
    They know as soon as Labour gets in they will smash it with all sorts of clever taxes to make “renewables” be “competitive”.
    If solar and wind are renewable.
    Then so is coal and oil.
    Solar and wind generation requires the mining of products to produce the operating systems.
    The same as coal and oil.
    All the elements from both are in finite supply.
    If solar/wind never become “carbon neutral” over their life time, then they are a waste of time.

    200

    • #
      PeterS

      Solution is simple. Have a renewables tax. Of course no government neither LNP not ALP+Greens would do that. Yet it would make a lot of common sense since we desperately need existing base load power stations to stay open longer than anticipated, not less of them as renewables slowly take over due to subsidies and ideologies.

      100

    • #
      Ian1946

      The most productive and sucessful period in Australia’s history was from 1949 to 1972 the along came Whilam, Australia’s very own Juan Peron, who started the destruction. The solution is simple keep the ALP/Greens out of sState and Federal governments.

      Sane decisions can then be made.

      130

      • #
        PeterS

        That’s only half the solution. The other half is to make a not so insignificant proportion of the LNP move to the ALP+Greens where they belong. Turnbull could be their leader.

        130

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        That’s it.

        That’s it.

        That’s it.

        40

        • #
          AndyG55

          KK, was that smoke this morning coming from somewhere in Glenrock ?

          20

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Really.

            I’ll go and have a look.

            Lot of smoke seems to be coming from up north.

            10

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Drove around to Kahiba station where there was a burned section of the roadside between the bike track and back car park. Some unburnt blackberry fruit survived. Further in smoke was there but seemed to be under control.

            Drove down to the scout camp and there were no dramas there.

            Along Dudley road there was no sign of any worry more to the coast and from Hickson st on the other side, no sign of smoke.

            The main problem evident in my wanderings was the amount of rubbish in the bush and pushing on to the roads.

            Councils want these fires to happen. They leave all the prohibited weeds like lantana, blackberry and bitou to build and build.

            Money saved is better spent on overseas fact finding trips and U.N. Better Cities and Bigger Fires Programmes.

            KK

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              AndyG55

              Yep, I noticed that when stopped I look from Scenic Drive a couple of weeks ago.

              Glenrock Reserve is one big bonfire just waiting to happen..

              Good luck stopping that lot on a hot blustery day.

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  • #

    It only makes sense when you consider it is meant not to make sense. Everything you have taken for granted is now precarious, whether it’s your electricity supply, your borders, your privacy, your identity or your bush block. That’s not a by-product, it’s an end.

    As a confirmed and self-outed conspiracy theorist, I’d like to repeat: this energy poverty in energy rich Australia makes no sense, but it is meant to make no sense.

    So we’ve already ceased expecting sense. We’re in the phase now where we are to cease looking for sense. Once we stop looking for sense, the globsters’ work is done here.

    But, no, we’re not heading into a brave new world. We’re heading into a world of mismanagement and bungling as the crime families who will govern us squabble over the spoils of power. Remember: these Fabians are people of enormous energy, patience and resources, but they are also empty, bored and self-loathing, just like their collectivist predecessors of last century. Expect nothing good of them. They are fallen.

    Stop globalism. Do tradition, family, privacy, property. And do coal.

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    • #
      joseph

      “Understanding the Fabian Window”. Another informative short film by Truthstream Media.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9oqgQ16qc8

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      • #

        A lot of Truthstream’s videos are worth checking out.

        40

        • #
          PeterS

          Indeed. I used to follow him a couple of years ago then stopped. I will return to watching his videos only to confirm my views of where we are heading.

          30

      • #
        PeterS

        Wolf in sheep’s clothing is a very apt description of Turnbull. Not sure if he is Fabian but then again there are many different types of wolves, some actually fight with other wolves. When two different types of socialistic ideologies clash there can be much bloodshed, such as Nazism and Communism.

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        Someone else I check out is James Corbett, not because I am in general agreement but because, like the Truthstream couple (and like me), he is more interested in those globalist/Fabian forces which are working through both left and right and even most so-called alternative politics. Having a bit between the ears and a capacity for individual research don’t go amiss.

        By those whose conservatism finds full expression in Breitbart or The Australian some of what is discussed here may not be well-received, so you might want to go the 5:30 minute mark to hear what these guys have to say about how determined the great crime families central banks are to get those green taxes flowing.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2h27ud3Oks&feature=emb_title

        Green Swans. So graceful, don’t you think?

        Guys, it’s getting beyond serious.

        10

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      It makes sense if you view it through a spiritual lens ( which is a contentious topic here, but it needs to be broached as its the most logical answer ).

      The eco zealots appear to be driven by multiple things :

      * Collapse of the power grid
      * Removal of basic righst and protections under law, including right to self defence
      * Destroying the middle classes standard of living
      * Throwing the Chrsitain Judeo laws and moral codes that have guided us well for generations, out the widow, so as to allow all manner of evil to flourish.
      * The destruction of childrens childhoods with “I identify as a fire hydrant” nonsense
      * kicking people off as much land as possible
      * Forcing people slowly into a vegie diet
      * Removal of property rights by stopping people managin their own land
      * Handing australia willingly to the UN

      Most of these appear as symptoms and aims of communism, however you need to understand the underpinning ethos of this movement, which is not just pure communism, but an occult New Age religion that worships a false god called “Gaia”.

      I’m not going to go into it too deep here, send me an email via Jo if you want to know more, but we are in a spiritual fight, but all most people see is the outer “symptoms”, and most who have signed up to this, appear to have made a Faustian deal.

      You would be truly horrified if you really understood these people. Its going to get much much worse.

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      • #
        PeterS

        Handing australia willingly to the UN

        Not sure about that one. It might be China. Perhaps in the end it will be the same thing.

        50

      • #
        PeterS

        I fully understand and agree what you are saying. You also must know it’s inevitable and that Christians will be persecuted once again as in the past. Are you willing to die for your faith? I am.

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  • #
    PeterS

    I remember when I visited Houston that it was a very hot day and all the shops outside at those large shopping villages left their doors open and their air conditioners running all day so that people remained cool even outside when walking from one shop to another. I asked how could they afford it. They said electricity was cheap thanks to nuclear. It appears we are seriously in danger here of becoming like a third world nation as we keep loosing businesses. We can’t all be working at coffee shops.

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    Robdel

    With blackouts will come understanding. I have been waiting for such outages for some time. They are now upon us.

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      PeterS

      If and when they do come it will very likely tip us into a recession. It will be the last straw for retail and others. The Fed’s budget will be blown out of the water. Reducing interest rates will have virtually no benefit since rates are already very low. We are skating on thin ice. The only thing holding us up now is the demand for housing thanks to immigration and the US stock market boom. Both of these will end one day because they are unsustainable, as always in previous booms.

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        True, and look at the south coast of NSW and the impact sof the fires for how it could hit us….

        40

    • #
      Bob-l

      It does dropped on how they spin it. Somehow they will make it Coal’s fault.

      The big issue is on the slopes of the duck curve, especially around 6PM when it can be still 38 but no solar energy generation to speak of. You have ventilation, some industrial load still going (workers working back), cooking loads, and air-con straing because of the extra 2-6kw heat loads from cooking. This is a fact of life in summer. In winter it’s reversed – morning is heating loads plus early workers, plus breakfast (millions of coffee pots and toasters).

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    Peter Fitzroy

    Once upon a time there was a quaint anachronism called a universal service obligation (uso) The idea was that every citizen had the right to the same level of service. For electricity this meant that rural and regional customers were provided with a reliable grid, one in which resilience was improved by providing cross connectors, dual paths for the main feeders et etc. Thankfully this is now just history, as the more populous cities railed against the uso, which they perceived as subsiding the rural and regional areas, at the expense of their own costs. A compliant section of the media where the cheerleaders in this rallying for an end to ‘gold plating’. Sine it is cheaper to ignore uso and power quality issues (the fines are laughable), generators are able to concentrate on maximising profit and minimising costs by providing only enough capacity to meet their normal demand.

    How to solve this?
    Simples, cut the rural and regions customers out of the uso and power quality framework, and then you could load shed without impacting the cities. After all rural voters are a tiny proportion of all voters, and always vote National (there is no other choice), so there will be no political fallout

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      AndyG55

      “How to solve this?”

      Make sure you have enough solid RELIABLE on-demand electricity so that it is extremely rare for this necessity to arrive.

      Not gold-plating the network to cope with the unreliability of intermittent power sources.

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Yes, Andy, that is one solution.
        However we are moving to a more laissez faire, libertarian based system, where you can have it, if you can pay for it.
        For your solution to work – you would need a policy and some regulation, and the ACCC. If allowed, the market will provide a solution at the best price.

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        • #
          AndyG55

          And no, we are not moving to a more laissez faire, libertarian based system.

          We are moving to a system control by the anti-science of the greenie CO2-hatred agenda.

          The market has been totally taken out of the picture by implementation of massive subsidies and idiotic feed-in tariffs..

          The anti-CO2 agenda has corrupted the whole rationale of reliability and grid stability.

          And because of the nagging far-left ABC and other child mouthpieces there is a distinct political cowardice to do the right thing for Australia.

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        • #
          Analitik

          we are moving to a more laissez faire, libertarian based system, where you can have it, if you can pay for it.

          So how do the LRET and special dispensation for “semi-scheduled” generators to bypass the market rules fall into the “laissez faire, libertarian based system”?

          30

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            You described it pretty well.

            16

            • #
              Analitik

              How renewables are the exception to the “laissez faire, libertarian based system” since they get specific legislation to make them somewhat viable in the face of open market realities?

              In that case, who are the “you” in “if you can pay for it”? The taxpayer? The consumers who bear the increased charges?

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          Peter Fitzroy — Gaslighting us again:

          … we are moving to a more laissez faire, libertarian based system, where you can have it, if you can pay for it.

          100% false. Obviously, almost all of us can pay for cheap coal fired power, but none of us have the option to do that.

          The Green Totalitarians are removing choices, ensuring forced payments from citizens and sometimes for zero measureable benefit or return. How many customers have paid for someone elses solar panels and got zero back for themselves apart from unreliable more expensive electricity?

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          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            Jo and Analitik – I agree entirely that once upon a time we had cheap, coal power distributed according to a USO. This was prior to the privatisation and creation of the market for what is essentially a natural monopoly. And I think we are all in agreement that although a market operates, the consumer is faced with no real choice in both the source of that energy, or the way in which it is provided (there is only one physical grid)

            To your second point, the renewable segment of the electricity industry is less than 20% of the total market, and therefore can only be assigned less than 20% of the price increases. Now I agree that it is possible for the tail to wag the dog, but I will note that the energy sector is the most profitable sector in the market, which implies that the taxpayer is being taken for a ride. For example, the trend according to the operator is down , yet the customer is not seeing those drops. That is what I mean by being part of a laissez faire, libertarian based system. I believe that this is exactly how business wants it.

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            • #

              No Peter. It is obvious and self-evident that the poles and wires of distribution are a natural monopoly. There is no reason generation is.

              You are kidding, right, about the 20% of the price increase? Why would coal power cost more now than it did in 1990 in real terms — apart from increased taxes or legislated union inflation of labor costs.

              Renewables are a burden on all the good generators. Unreliable intermittent providers force the cheap baseload to operate under stupid conditions, with inefficiencies that are entirely avoidable if we just dump taxpayer forced subsidies and the unreliables.

              This has already been documented and published on this site and mentioned 4 million times. see Taylor et al 2015. Hidden Costs: how wind generation makes gas power $30/MWh more expensive Those are renewables costs, not gas costs, though dumb journalists may miss that.

              Please read that post before you utter another single word on the cost of renewables because nothing you say can be worth anything if you dont understand the self-evident arguments and data from Taylor et al.

              http://joannenova.com.au/2018/08/windpower-set-to-destroy-victorian-baseload-power-just-as-it-did-in-south-australia/

              And regarding any “trend” announced by the AEMO-politbureau, cough cough, gag gag — The trend in the last twenty years is relentlessly absurdly high, is correlated with an increase in renewables in every country so afflicted, and any tiny amelioration of costs in the last ten minutes are a worthless distractor designed to fool the gullible.

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              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                And yet it is. see AGL https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/agl-posts-a-1-billion-profit-thanks-to-higher-electricity-prices-20180809-p4zwe3.html

                One argument would say that it is renewables pushing up the prices, but frankly I can not see the mechanism. Coal power has the bulk supply contracts, which sets the floor price for the market. Spot prices, as you have noted can fall to zero when renewables drive demand down to the floor generation level. So again, how can some intermittent power source which has a max of 20% affect the pricing. After all the cheap efficient coal should be able to underbid, particularly in the bulk supply market. This is in line with the Tom Quirk post which talks exclusively about spot prices. Coal mainly functions in the bulk supply market and those contracts can range up to 5 years into the future.
                Ideally as a distributor, you do not want to to buy any power on the spot market, which means you tend to purchase slightly more than you need on the bulk market, selling into the spot market any excess.

                I did planning for 10 years with North Power, Country Energy and Essential Energy, (without having to move desks), and this is what we were modeling.

                I will repeat – the bulk contracts are with the reliable suppliers, the spot contracts have to take renewables first, but it is only a small percentage to the total.

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              • #

                Peter — do the sums.

                Coal wholesale = $30/MW h.

                Let’s pretend Wind and Solar are equal (we know they are more like $60/MWh).

                Explain to me how a network with pure coal at $30/MWh will get cheaper by duplicating unneccesary extra generation which is not needed — so there is twice as much infrastructure to generate the exact same amount of electricity? Both generators need to cover costs, but now only have 1/2 the time to profit, therefore both are less efficient, needing almost as much staff, land, maintenance (actually may need more maintenance due to ramping up and down).

                Fuel is less, but every other costs goes up. So coal now charges $45/MWh — because it runs less efficiently, and while wind may change $30/MWh the total cost to the consumer can not possibly fall.

                Now imagine a system where wind and solar are at least $60/MWh, and are forced onto the $30/MWh coal system. Suddenly there are almost no bids ever below $50 except when the market goes stupid and we get -$200 bids. Then imagine how one coal gen goes out of business (that was easy, lets not say “Hazelwood”). Now there are squeezes where prices spike to $14,500/MW/h. So all consumers pay more. “Demand Management” becomes essential. Businesses close, go overseas, the prices of everything in Australia go up. The economy falls to pieces, we lose competitiveness, and everyone wonders why no customers can spare cash for coffees and cakes or jeans west, and more businesses go broke.

                Rinse, repeat, destroy a nation.

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                Peter Fitzroy

                A large coal plant is the cheapest most efficient way of producing energy, I agree. My problem is that coal power’s costs have not changed, and they supply 80% of the market, yet the cost to the consumer has skyrocketed, as have profits to companies like AGL. It would seem to me that AGL are hiding behind the more expensive renewables, to deflect criticism about their obvious gouging. The governments are complicit in having set up a market, they now refuse to intervene to halt the gouging (that’s the laissez faire bit), big stick anyone?

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              • #
                AP

                Jo, Brian Fisher (who used to run the Federal Bureau of Resource Economics when it was called ABARE) prepared an excellent paper along with Sabine Schnittiger that calculated the real cost of renewables. I have found Brian to be an excellent economist who is extremely principled, competent and knowledgable, when I have dealt with him. I have every reason to believe his work would be true and accurate.

                The true cost of solar GENERATION is $200 per MWh. Wind is close to $100. We used to buy electricity (only ten years ago) as a bulk end consumer, including distribution costs for $45 per MWh.

                Here is the paper

                This was commissioned by the MCA before Brendan Pierson got the boot as CEO for being too coal-friendly which displeased BHP and Rio.

                10

              • #
                AP

                Unfortunately Sabine’s follow up paper which calculated the actual generation cost for each renewable type in $/MWh seems to have been disappeared from the internet. It does not appear to be on the MCA website any longer.

                00

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              AndyG55

              laissez faire {definition}…. is an economic system in which transactions between private parties are absent of any form of government intervention such as regulation, privileges, imperialism, tariffs and subsidies.

              What don’t you understand?

              Current situation is rife with government regulation, subsides for unreliables, feed-in mandates carbon tariffs etc etc..

              It has to be for unreliable to exist on the market.

              “I believe that this is exactly how business wants it.”

              For the unreliable energy producers, this is the very last thing they want.

              They absolutely need that government intervention to even exist.

              And because that means RELIABLE power has to take a back seat, but still be available, costs necessarily skyrocket, as they have.

              [SNIP personalized insult - jo]

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            • #
              Robber

              As Jo has explained, do the sums. Add 6.7 GW of wind generators (nameplate capacity) at a capital cost of over $10 billion, plus grid upgrades to cover output from zero to 6 GW. Add similar extra capital for intermittent solar. Yet nothing else is mothballed, therefore a lot more capital is in the market seeking a return on investment, and surprise, surprise, prices escalate. Gas and coal stations must reduce their output when the sun shines and the wind blows, but must be ready at all times to supply 100% of peak demand. So overall, a lot more capital, but all now operating at lower utilisation rates.

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          AndyG55

          laissez faire [definition}…. is an economic system in which transactions between private parties are absent of any form of government intervention such as regulation, privileges, imperialism, tariffs and subsidies.

          So when you say we are moving towards it,

          … you are displaying a palpable degree of deceitful dishonesty.. !

          10

      • #
        AndyG55

        Glad that you admit that wind and solar are too intermittent and unreliable to be any part of any real solution.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      You almost succeeded in wasting my time & life
      With this distraction Fitz.
      But then I realised it is an irrelevant distrative rant.
      Bye !

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    • #
      AndyG55

      Let’s put Port Macquarie area at the top of the list of areas not needing electricity

      Country people don’t matter, afterall.

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      toorightmate

      I am no longer allowed to call you what you are.
      Freedom of the press????

      30

    • #
      R.B.

      Once upon a time there was a quaint anachronism called a universal service obligation

      There still is.
      The term is only used in Australia for telecommunications.
      The states still have such regulations for electricity.
      Julia Gillard led the Gold Plating charge.
      There were no such rallies in the cities.
      The issues with the grid are liability for fires and the irregular and uncontrolled power from renewable sources.

      You must be Fitzsimmons. This garbage comes across like one of his “researched” history books.

      30

    • #
      yarpos

      mmmmmmm great plan, after all abusing country voters worked so well in QLD recently. I cant see a problem.

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  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    surely someone at the guardian has written how evil it is to use coal fired air conditioning because you create a feedback loop whereby you using coal fired air conditioning leads to even more globull warming, then more air conditooning, more globull warming and so on to the end of time.

    80

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I remember back in 2007/2008 whereby when it was a dry period, the MSM started calling people with offpeak storage water heaters “bad”…

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    • #
      Another Ian

      Ye Gods! There must be a tipping point in there somewhere!

      00

  • #
    yarpos

    From the groovy ne AEMO fuel mix page.

    NSW sources electrical energy last 12 months:

    Coal 86%
    Gas 3%
    Hydro 3%
    Wind 6%
    Solar 2%

    https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem#nem-dispatch-overview

    Think I would be focussing on the main game instead of fiddling around the edges. Same in VIC.

    Not sure how long this page will last because it isnt going to be very on narrative

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    Rupert Ashford

    Don’t worry Chairman Mal will tell us what to do from any platform that would tolerate the old beast. He and his son’s investment fund is already in all the “right” renewables companies, now it’s just for him to shame the 25mil serfs to open their eyes and see what’s best for them and then the bucks will start rolling in for him.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Is there any chance of cancelling his Australian citizenship & passport while he is off staying in New York at his penthouse apartment ?

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      Deplorable Lord Kek

      if going renewable is so important, why don’t all the world’s ‘elites’ offer it for free.

      but they never offer it free, it’s always the middle class taxpayer that must be impoverished to pay for their unworkable schemes.

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    Robber

    What a coincidence – AEMO has just changed its website making it harder to find the data on price and demand (but such pretty colours).
    Yesterday 23/1 NSW average price was $224/MWhr, Qld $155, while Vic and SA were negative $1-2/MWhr. Hardly an integrated grid?
    And it will all be blamed on unreliable coal, as Bayswater #4 at 660 MW was out of action. Yet they report wind as “semi-scheduled” generation.
    Victoria was forecast to be the State for supply shortages this summer, but so far in January Vic price has averaged $50/MWhr, compared to $250/MWhr last January.

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  • #
    Antoine D'Arche

    I hope we get an Indian summer, I hope it’s as hot as hades, and I hope the grid crashes spectacularly.
    Wake these sheep from their slumber

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    John

    Tsk tsk, see what happens when we persist with dirty unreliable coal?

    That’s right, if we had clean reliable renewables we’d have unlimited power which would never run out.

    It’s just that simple.

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    BC

    This paywalled article on the RERT is well worth reading.

    And this article on large power users is worth revisiting:
    Tomago Aluminium hits out after AGL power shortage causes problems

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    • #
      AP

      Tomago – is it still operating? Must be a marginal proposition. One good 5hr blackout and their potlines are ruined, and its gone.

      10

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    frednk

    And the reason why we are in this mess, because people that build stuff know it is now cheaper to build renewable plant but it is a system wide issues and we have had no sensible policy for a decade because of people like you.

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      AndyG55

      No, the lack of a sensible policy is because of the anti-CO2 agenda.

      ie people like YOU. !!

      As you keep showing everyone, there is no evidence that CO2 has any affect whatsooever on climate.

      That means the implementation of intermittent unreliable so-called renewables is right at the top scale of idiocy.

      A sane, scientific and economic based forward plan would be the building of a new high capacity HELE coal fired power plant in each of the eastern states.

      That would ensure total reliability of supply.

      This all important reliability of supply, is something no amount of UNRELIABLES can ever do.

      The only thing blocking the implementation of this much needed upgrade to the system is the anti-science, anti-progress, greenie political agenda that has infiltrated both sides of the political field.

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      Kalm Keith

      It’s good to have so many contributors.

      Extra coffee for another week.

      Thanks Fred.

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      Bob-l

      Blimey,
      As one of the people that “Build Stuff” on electricity grids I can tell you that I would not recommend renewables except on a microgrid where they can significantly stretch diesel consumption.

      Big fast spinny things work so much better than your favoured useless tech trinkets and I can shove more capacity on the back of a semi trailer than several hectares of immobile part-time generators ready to be taken out in the next hail storm.

      So don’t even pretend to speak for us Engineers. We really know how to build stuff and it’s not with low power density energy scavenging tech, well not if you want to make a profit anyway.

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        We really know how to build stuff and it’s not with low power density energy scavenging tech, well not if you want to make a profit anyway.

        So, we have a wind plant of 150MW, and at the Capacity Factor of 30%, that’s an average of 45MW, so on an average hour it will generate 45MWH of power. For that it will receive the current going rate for every MWH of power, so at $40/MWH it grosses $1800 for that hour.

        Bayswater has four Units of 660MW, and when the coal gets fed in at the front end, that’s what it generates, so across that same one hour it will generate 2640MW. At that same $40/MWH, that’s an hourly total of $105,600

        I wonder how obvious that is when you compare both totals, $1800 and $105600

        Tony.

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    pat

    spare a thought for the iguanas:

    23 Jan: Sky UK: Frozen iguanas fall from trees as temperatures drop in Florida
    Social media users have been posting images and videos of the cool-blooded lizards lying helpless on the pavement.
    The cold-blooded lizards slow down or become immobile when temperatures drop to 4C (40F)…

    NWS wrote on Twitter: “This isn’t something we usually forecast, but don’t be surprised if you see iguanas falling from trees tonight as lows drop into the 30s and 40s. Brrrr!”
    The service added in a graphic with the post: “They may fall from trees, but they are not dead.”…
    https://news.sky.com/story/frozen-iguanas-fall-from-trees-as-temperatures-drop-in-florida-11915445

    trust the FakeNewsMSM to bring up “mild winters”:

    Updated 23 Jan: USA Today: The night the iguanas fell: Cold snap chills Florida, and lizard meat is up for sale
    by Doyle Rice; with AP
    The forecast verified.
    Tuesday afternoon, the National Weather Service in Miami issued an unusual warning about cold-stunned iguanas falling from trees across South Florida.
    Wednesday morning, reports and photos appeared of the reptiles lying on the ground…

    The temperature in Miami dropped to a nippy 40 degrees Wednesday morning, according to the National Weather Service, and the wind chill was in the mid-30s.
    That’s the coldest Miami has been in more than nine years, the Weather Channel said…

    “After a frigid start to their Wednesday morning in Florida, where freeze warnings and wind chill advisories are in effect across all of the Sunshine State, a return to more typical weather is expected,” the weather service said…

    As for the iguanas, the cold stunned but didn’t necessarily kill them…
    They’ve been in South Florida since the 1960s, and their numbers increased dramatically in recent years.
    This could be a result of milder winters: “We’re going through multiple winters that are failing to get as cold as almost every winter did a few decades ago,” Weather Underground climate blogger Bob Henson said. “This is happening at the same time that iguana populations are multiplying across South Florida.”
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/01/22/florida-cold-weather-falling-iguanas-trees-meat/4541351002/

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    pat

    reminder. AP plays with numbers:

    ***17 Jan: AP: Locust outbreak, most serious in ***25 years, hits East Africa
    By ELIAS MESERET and CARA ANNA

    23 Jan: AP: AP Explains: How climate change feeds Africa locust invasion
    By CARA ANNA; Rodney Muhumuza in Kampala, Uganda contributed
    Locusts by the millions are nibbling their way across a large part of Africa in the worst outbreak some places have seen in ***70 years. Is this another effect of a changing climate? Yes, researchers say. An unprecedented food security crisis may be the result.
    The locusts “reproduce rapidly and, if left unchecked, their current numbers could grow 500 times by June,” the United Nations says.
    Heavy rains in East Africa made 2019 one of the region’s wettest years on record, said Nairobi-based climate scientist Abubakr Salih Bawanker. He blamed rapidly warming waters in the Indian Ocean off Africa’s eastern coast, which also spawned an unusual number of strong tropical cyclones off Africa last year.
    Heavy rainfall and warmer temperatures are favorable conditions for locust breeding and in this case the conditions have become “exceptional,” he said.

    Even now rainfall continues in some parts of the vast region. The greenery that springs up keeps the locusts fuelled.
    Major locust outbreaks can be devastating. One between ***2003 and 2005 cost more than $500 million to control across 20 countries in northern Africa, the FAO has said. It caused more than $2.5 billion in harvest losses…
    https://apnews.com/c89d01fd28ab067ef9bf5ca017904768

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    Agammamon

    · closing doors, windows and blinds to keep the heat out;

    I’m sorry, but when an organization puts out notices like this, I just can’t take them seriously. Everything they say should just be dismissed out of hand because they don’t live on this world.

    These are supposed to be experts, ‘Top Men’. And they think people are running the AC with the doors and windows open at 100F+? Because they like multi-hundred dollar electric bills? Because they want to burn money but actually setting piles of it on fire increase global warming so this is the next best thing? They think people aren’t already closing blinds? I live in a desert in the US – the blinds on the south side of my house are closed by default all year around. I can’t imagine Australians are any dumber than us.

    Nobody needs to be told to close doors and windows when its hot (or cold) outside.

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      TdeF

      Good point. It can only be written by people who work in glass skyscrapers, huge government buildings, people who have no idea what life is like outside the cacoon. No one opens a window to let the hot air in and the cold air out unless they have infinite cooling. In big buildings the cooling runs even in the middle of winter to pump the heat out.

      Next we will be told that we have to sl*ughter the cattle to save the world, to ban living near the beach because of rapidly rising seas and to drive energy hungry electric cars which universally run on coal and gas or nuclear so we can minimize ‘emissions’.

      It was better in the 1950s where people built power stations just so they could have cheap, reliable, adequate power because they needed it. In the 2020s we are building nothing, not even windmills which are almost always German or Chinese/German or desalination plants which are French. Everyone is getting rich and we have no power and the world’s highest electricity costs.

      And we are told to close the windows.

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        yarpos

        They have to be seen to be doing and saying something to justify their existence. Usually it only serves to confirm how useless they are.

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  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    We the People are being trained for the brave new world of 20,000 BC. Wherein our self appointed betters can take our stuff, leave us with nothing, and we must accept and obey.

    It is time to tell them NO! in such a way they cannot ignore it: “You will have to take technological civilization out of my cold dead hands before you can destroy it.”

    Remember?

    Fundamental reality: Before you can consume, you first must produce.
    Conclusion: Produce only that which you need to survive and have no excess.
    Consequence:
    If you don’t have it, they can’t take it.
    If you don’t produce it, they can’t tax it.
    If you aren’t there, they can’t find you.

    They need us far more than we need them. Without our productivity, they couldn’t last a month. If they were magically removed from the earth, we can do much better than with them micromanaging everything we do, think, and say.

    Why? It takes a free mind, a free body, secure ownership of tools and materials, and the freedom to pursue your own goals to be productive. Coercive control always fails because it destroys the necessary freedoms. It uses human sacrifice as a short term substitute. When the controllers run out of willing sacrificial victims, they are done for.

    He who is free never submits. He who submits was never free. Stay free!

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      I luv what you write Lionell.

      TdF I have sent my letter of displeasure to Michael O’ Brian Victorian Shadow Minister for Small Business re his calling for reduction in CO2 emissions – tho’ no gain and real economic benefit.

      …Maybe one letter good, two letters better, four (or moah) betterer?

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      • #
        Lionell Griffith

        It is worth trying but the letters will do little good. They are not interested in success (high productivity and thriving) but are interested in only destroying the good BECAUSE it is good. This even at the cost of their own extinction. They are, at their core, Anti-Mind and therefore Anti-Life. They don’t really want to live at your expense, they want you to die as painfully as they can possibly make it. They do NOT have your interests at heart. Way down deep, where it really counts, they don’t even have their own interests at heart.

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    TdeF

    I was disturbed by Nick Cater’s article in the Australian today, arguing for gas against coal. It is a part concession to the madness, arguing the lesser evil but effectively accepting the logic. He says Loy Yang could be closed if gas was found.

    Gas is precious. The energy loss in transportation is zero and Victoria is setup for gas for heating, cooking and so unlike the US. Thermal conversion to electricity loses energy and transmission loses energy. Gas is also used directly in manufacture of other chemicals while the coal would sit idle in the ground while $2.5Bn power plants are destroyed.

    All this madness, the lack of electricity, the world’s highest prices, the most fragile grid (now we have a National Grid we never needed) and the scored of billions handed over with the RET for people to own windmills is all predicated on the idea that the CO2 level is man made!

    It isn’t. CO2 levels are perfectly natural. Our ‘emissions’ are natural. We are burning old plant matter. The uranium lobby even argue that nuclear power has no ‘emissions’. How mad can we get?

    There needs to be a simple measure of man made CO2, determined by C14. It would show that in 1958 the CO2 level was 2.03 ± 0.15% since 1850 and to get a reputable laboratory to estimate the % in 2020. I expect well under 5%.

    Then what exactly is the problem? I can see no problem. Not a single one.

    An increase in CO2 is wonderful for life on earth and food supplies and Greening the planet, except that the dense steamy jungles of the Cretaceous period of 66 million years ago may reappear and the dinosaurs with them. However this time as giant Chickens, KFC has a recipe for them. In a Green world where one ton carnivore Polar bears are considered cute and needing protection, it hardly matters.

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    pat

    it’s all about poles & wires, unreliable coal, etc. not a hint solar panels could be destroyed by bushfires. not to mention what they might do to wind farms:

    23 Jan: ABC: Power prices set to rise and blackouts increase as bushfire seasons become more ferocious
    By business reporter Sue Lannin
    Australian consumers can expect higher power prices and more frequent power blackouts as fire seasons get longer and blazes more intense.
    The group representing the poles and wires industry, Energy Networks Australia (ENA), said retail power prices could increase due to constantly rising insurance costs for electricity networks.

    ENA chief executive Andrew Dillon said more frequent bushfires were putting pressure on electricity infrastructure, with “unprecedented” damage to power poles, lines and substations from the recent fires.
    “We don’t think there’s going to be an overnight increase of prices as a result of the fires of the last two months, but what we do see is as we have assets in areas where the risk of fire is higher than it was previously, that’s going to create challenges in the insurance and indeed the operations front that over time are likely to put upward pressure on prices,” Mr Dillon told the ABC…

    Mr Dillon said people living in bushfire-prone areas could see their electricity prices increase down the track, or have to go off the grid as power networks looked at other ways to deliver electricity.
    “Part of this risk debate we are having around the industry is should we continue to supply those customers by traditional poles and wires approaches, or should we start to adopt new technologies — solar, batteries, back-up generation — to effectively take those customers off-grid to both tap into that cheaper supply to make power cheaper for everyone and also to reduce the fire risk from those assets,” Mr Dillon said…

    IBISWorld energy analyst James Caldwell said keeping the lights on this summer had pushed Australia’s ageing coal-fired power stations to the limit.
    “Approximately half of Australia’s fleet of coal-fired power stations, generating over two-thirds of generating capacity, are over 30 years old,” he said.
    “This trend presents a number of problems, primarily that these plants are no longer reliable.”…

    Associate Professor Bruce Mountain, from the Victoria Energy Policy Centre, said there should be more power shutdowns during bushfires to reduce the risk of fires caused by electricity.
    “Not a blackout but a brownout, area closures,” he said…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/power-prices-rise-blackouts-increase-bushfire-season-intensifies/11890646

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  • #
    Rocket Rod

    ..and over at the stopthesethings website:

    Customers have been forced to pay electricity companies almost £650m over the past decade – to not produce power.
    The cash is compensation for periods that wind turbines are switched off at short notice and usually happens to avoid overloading the UK’s National Grid.
    Since 2009, power firms have been paid to turn off wind turbines when the demand for electricity drops or the wind is too strong.
    The cost is then added to customers’ electricity bills.
    The bulk of the money – so-called constraint payments – comes to electricity suppliers in Scotland because most windfarms are north of the border.

    So…you get to pay to NOT have power supplied to prevent the grid from crashing!

    Should we laugh or cry at the sheer idiocy of this renewable fiasco ???
    Probably both.

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    • #
      Zane

      Shows the dimensions of the rort. Many people are cashing in on the renewables racket in all sorts of ways. Saving the planet has nothing to do with it. It’s all about the money.

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      • #
        TdeF

        And amazingly even the city of Canberra has received tens of millions in payments for owning windmills. That’s our money going to subsidize a government? It’s not a tax. It’s a gift? Who benefits?

        What do we get for all the hundreds of millions in cash flowing to people who own windmills and not at all to buy electricity. The answer is simple. The world’s highest electricity prices and billions in prize money to people who own windmills.

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  • #
    Zane

    When Lidell closes in 2022 there goes 2000MW. One million Sydney households’ worth of power. It has been mooted on this forum that owner AGL will seek to replace this with a big CCGT plant. If so, they need to get moving. These things can’t be bought off the shelf at Bunnings. Sure, Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems could probably build one in two to three years if they went flat out. Better book some flights to Yokohama, Aye Gee Ell. Hope the Greens don’t ban using gas – then we’re really up the creek without a paddle.

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    • #
      beowulf

      Not quite Zane. This is a re-hash of a comment I made back in April 2018 when AGL announced its plans for Liddell.

      A summary of AGL’s Liddell Power Station replacement plans:
      • in 2022 shut down Liddell PS with a nameplate of 2,000MW
      • build a new 252-megawatt gas-fired plant near Newcastle consisting of fourteen X 18MW turbines
      • construction to be completed at the end of 2022 at $400million cost (will it come on line before Liddell is shut down???)
      • commence a $200 million, 100MW upgrade of Bayswater PS [this is in progress now 2019-2020]

      In addition to:
      • 210MW of new gas-fired generation in far off South Australia [big help to NSW!!]
      • 653MW of new erratic wind farms in Queensland and NSW (no timeframe is given for when any of that will happen)
      • an agreement to purchase capacity from the Sunraysia solar project near Balranald
      NSW [Sunraysia was due for completion in Dec 2019 — don’t know if it is]

      The entire Sunraysia solar PV project will only be 200MW AC (with DC to AC losses covered) plus “the possibility of batteries at a later stage”. AGL signed on to source up to 800,000 MWh of renewable energy per annum for 15 years from Sunraysia’s owner Maoneng, only some of which will be from the Sunraysia Solar Farm. Maoneng only does PV solar so that 800,000 MWh is strictly all solar power, none of which has battery backup. UNSW also signed a PPA to take 124,000MWh per year of Sunraysia’s power for 15 years to achieve its own “carbon neutrality”.

      Sunraysia will cover approximately 1,000 hectares (2,450 acres) with PV panels. It will cost around $275m and “generate 530,000MWh annually”.

      According to Vesey [who has now left AGL], AGL will continue to “assess the potential” to develop a further 500MW of gas-fired generation capacity as part of Stage 2 of the plan, but is yet to commit to anything further to replace lost generation if Liddell closes.

      Compared to now, as at 2022 that still leaves NSW short of a commitment from AGL for 1,648MW of despatchable power generation, and this with population growth surging all the time.

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      • #
        Zane

        Someone else made a comment that AGL was possibly planning a big CCGT plant on the old Liddell site to utilise the existing transmission infrastructure. Maybe they are, maybe not, and they might simply want to scare off any competition. What is currently proposed is merely a stopgap measure. Some demand management might mitigate the issue, but since Sydney is due to grow to 10 million inhabitants, a few extra renewables, interstate electricity, and small gas generators will simply not cut the mustard here. AGL is headquartered in Sydney, so they will obviously need to find a viable long-term solution. Maybe they want to milk the state government for additional subsidies to keep Liddell online a few years longer. They have rejected a $250 million cash offer from Alinta to buy Liddell as is. AGL obviously have a strategy up their sleeve, and I think it goes beyond their public pronouncements on the matter. As Australia’s largest publicly listed energy utility, they have plenty of economic and political clout in NSW. They will ensure they maximize profits by having plenty of high priced electricity to sell to future consumers. The last thing they want is any real competition, thus their cold shouldering of the Alinta deal.

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  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    We’re gonna need a bigger wind farm, and a carbon (sic) tax …

    Alcoa says Australia’s power prices highest ‘on the planet’

    “US aluminium giant Alcoa says Australia has one of the most expensive “energy price markets on the planet” and it is talking with governments about finding an electricity solution for its loss-making Portland smelter in Victoria.”

    https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/alcoa-says-australian-power-prices-highest-on-the-planet-20200115-p53rsa

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      We’ve been sold out.

      Just in the area of domestic electricity every Australian household is paying out a “bonus” of $800 pa. to profiteers in the system.

      Then there’s local government tacking on compliance obligations the feed the other industries which funnily enough are supplied by Chyna: rainwater tank, awnings and water heaters with little fans on top.
      I have no doubt that from an engineering and economic perspective these requirements are totally useless except for the makers of the “solutions”.

      KK

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  • #
    Analitik

    This is the most interconnected state in Australia and conditions in Victoria are cool so the The Snowy and Victoria generators should have ample excess capacity.

    WTF is going on????

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    • #
      yarpos

      We arent as awash with energy as you seem to think and interconnector capacity has its limits.

      right now 9:30PM ish we are importing 400MW from TAS, shipping out about the same to SA (who will do anything not to activate local gas generation) and exporting 600MW to NSW. As usual NSW are importing form QLD also. The QLD budget will take a hit if and when NSW resolves and secures enough supply.

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  • #
    Kalm Keith

    I lived through this period, the work, the simple thrifty life, the rules that were fair. And then I saw it unravel and the plunder, vote buying and self interest begin to rule.

    Khemlani finished it off, and later his children’s children, no not Khemlanis, g w s, demutualized three NRMA and NIB, both of which were great examples of the old egalitarian Australia.

    In the last 40 years Australia has been completely demutualised and we are now owned by someone in China through a Swiss holding company.

    KK

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/01/sydney-on-blackout-watch-people-told-to-close-windows-and-doors-turn-off-non-essential/#comment-2261832

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  • #
    Dave

    Isn’t turning off air conditioning in a particularly hot and sticky city in mid summer whilst a supposedly particularly nasty outbreak unfolds in a country that has lots of family, business ties, property and friends in. A particularly stupid and bug favorable move?

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  • #
    pat

    24 Jan: ABC: Electricity interconnector between SA and NSW has ‘robust’ business case, energy regulator finds
    A planned $1.5 billion electricity interconnector between South Australia and New South Wales has been ruled to have a “robust” business case by the Australian Energy Regulator (AER), however, its economic benefit has been significantly downplayed…READ ON FOR UNREALISTIC FIGURES
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/electricity-interconnector-sa-nsw-economic-benefit-downplayed/11897002

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      I notice that the ABC claims the public will get (slightly) lower electricity bills IF the interconnection is built.
      The Regulator thinks that the public will have to pay (slightly) more.
      I have never seem how exporting low priced renewable electricity (when there is a glut) to NSW and getting back more expensive (when there is a shortage) would benefit South Australians. It is true that those running wind farms would benefit as they would get a higher price when the wind blows strongly. The benefit to the ordinary citizen seems remote, especially as they will be hit with paying for the benefit to the wind farmers.

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        Adding another expensive layer of infrastructure always reduces the price , it’s called socialism math 101 .

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  • #
    Another Ian

    O/T – for the record

    “Catastrophy FUD list:”

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EO_i9z5VUAAgOAe.jpg

    Via a Chiefio comment

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    pat

    what! will the FakeNewsMSM that got quotes from Vic Police the last time NSW police wrote about 183 fires deliberately lit, ignore this update!

    24 Jan: 9News: AAP: Police boost to uncover NSW bushfire cause
    More police will be deployed to investigate the cause of 12,000 bushfires across NSW this season, including more than 700 put down to human intervention.
    But NSW Police say they’ll continue to classify “deliberate” fires as any that are lit by people – even if there was no intention of taking property or life.

    Assistant Commissioner Stuart Smith said ***716 of the 1700 bushfires already reported to police this season had been classified as deliberate…
    “It ranges from those that are listed as accidental right through to intentional,” Mr Smith told reporters on Friday.
    Another 156 were down to natural causes such as lightning, while more than 700 were yet to be classified…

    The lead police investigative body for bushfires, expanded to 40 officers on Friday, will handle coronial investigations for 24 deaths and coordinate detectives probing the cause of 12,000 bushfires already recorded by the NSW Rural Fire Service this season.
    “Intentional behaviour, serial behaviour, behaviour that needs to be profiled, takes a great deal of patience and scientific work to establish a list of individuals that we think need to have predictive or proactive work in the upcoming season,” Mr Smith said.
    https://www.9news.com.au/national/police-boost-to-uncover-nsw-bushfire-cause/bdd3c69c-86af-4695-b4dd-1af42733622c

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    pat

    should have said read all the 9News piece. most of it is here, though:

    AUDIO: 6m42s: 24 Jan: 2GB: Ray Hadley Show: Police Commissioner warns those who accidentally start fires will be charged with bushfire deaths
    NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller is warning people will still be charged over bushfire deaths, even if the blaze was started unintentionally…
    According to NSW Police, 267 people have been charged over 328 bushfire-related offences, since August 1, 2019.

    • 55 people have had legal actions over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires
    • 126 people have had legal actions for allegedly failing to comply with a total fire ban
    • 41 people have had legal actions for discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land, and
    • 70 juveniles have had legal actions for bushfire-related offences.

    Commissioner Fuller tells Ray Hadley charges will be laid, regardless of whether the person profiles as an arsonist or not…
    “There are the idiots who throw cigarettes out the window… there are particularly evil individuals who start fires to cause loss of life, but from our perspective, it’s all criminal.
    “People are losing their lives, and their livelihoods, as a result of people who may not profile as arsonists, but they’re starting fires that are causing the loss of lives.”
    https://www.2gb.com/police-commissioner-warns-those-who-accidentally-start-fires-will-be-charged-with-bushfire-deaths/

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    • #
      yarpos

      seems fair, if you accidentally kill someone with a car you still get charged. Its up to the courts to decide the consequences.

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  • #
    Matt

    Last night while the temperature outside my house near Newcastle was still 38 degrees. One phase of my three phase power was turned off externally. Incidently that was the one running my air con. Checking Ausgrid the outage was reported as “being investigated” and the service was expected to return about 10pm. I am not sure how you estimate a return of service time until “investigations” are finished and therefore the cause is known. Stangely it came back on about 10.15pm just after late night Thursday shopping ended. I am not one to be a conspiracy theorist but the coincidence is strong in this one. If this isn’t the power rationing we were warned about under the increased reliance on renewables I will eat my smelly socks.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Sautéed or en casserole?

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    • #
      toorightmate

      Matt,
      Let’s not try to disguise the fact that power rationing in NSW in 2020 is a complete and utter disgrace. Absolutely needless.

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    • #
      hatband

      If the biggest problem from the switch to renewables comes from losing power for a few

      hours so the supermarket can run their fridges, it’s no biggie.

      One solution could be Supermarkets shutting the doors at

      5.00 pm M-F and Midday on a Saturday.

      A return to peace and quiet is worth more than some Billionaire

      squeezing a few more Bucks out of the Low Paid.

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  • #
    Hivemind

    But the ACT government promised that all of our power was coming from renewables. This couldn’t possibly be happening if they were telling the truth, could it?

    /sarc

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    dp

    I’m now of the opinion that Australia’s cheapest eletric energy is to run a generator off a Pelton wheel powered by a garden hose and city water, sell it back to the grid and use the excess to power your house. Use the waste waterto fill a pool to fight any fires that come your way, to wash off the mud left behind by your haboobs, and to water the vegetable garden during the droughts. Any left can be used as a swamp cooler to contain the heat waves.

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  • #
    James

    I am surprised that more businesses do not have backup generation. There was an ice storm here in northern NY about 7 years ago and the power was out for several days until the wires were fixed. The local supermarket which is small and family owned had their generator running and were trading as normal. They sell petrol as well. The pumps were operational so you could buy petrol for you own generator. We only get the storms every 10 years but we are well set up to deal with it.

    I was at an auction of a decommissioned pharmaceutical plant about 5 years ago. There were some backup generators at the plant. They all seemed to be plumbed to natural gas. Perhaps a generator connected to natural gas network might be an option for hospitals as well. I wonder what sized gas connection you would need?

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  • #

    Here in the UK, with demand for electricity high, we are suffering a lot of fog and little wind. Together they have been contributing around 5% of our electricity requirements and coal, which is to be shut down this year, has been called upon to contribute 10%. Pretty near the lights going off. I’ve just updated my blog to show a projection in 2025 where we will probably have an electricity supply deficit of some 16GW. If that happens I think the politician’s minds might become a bit more focussed instead of listening to the prophets of doom.
    https://adriankerton.wordpress.com/005c-will-the-lights-go-off-in-january/

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