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Global Mystery: Barrier Reef dying, total panic, but no one cares enough to measure growth for last 15 years?

Fifteen years of missing data tells us everything we need to know

Peter Ridd and Jennifer Marohasy are continuing to follow up on the death of the Great Barrier Reef. Strangely, while everyone professes to care, and cry, and Malcolm Turnbull casually tossed half a billion at it, we see the extremely radioactive oddity that no one is worried enough to bother measuring the actual supposed decline of the seventh wonder of the modern world. Fifteen years is a long time to overlook that. Many panicked press releases have gone under the bridge yet apparently AIMS (and all the others) just want to keep quoting the shrinking growth rates, but not keep track of them.

On top of that, Peter Ridd and Jennifer Marohasy have spotted a pretty major flaw in the methodology for that much quoted study that claims growth on the reef has slowed by 15% from 1990 to 2005. If that number is right, the reef will have ground down to a 30% decline by now [in growth rate]. Disaster, disaster. Worthy of a hundred press releases and a thousand grants. So either it just hasn’t occurred to AIMS et al to keep studying the reef they say they love, or else they have quietly looked at those growth rates, found the reef isn’t dying and they shelved the results in the “don’t look now folder”.

Oh the dilemma. Which could it be?

The real test here is not about the Great Barrier Reef, which is probably fine, but about the trustworthiness of our scientific institutions.

Coral reef decline (or not). 1000 year old Porite.

Porites corals are typically used to estimate growth rates the Great Barrier Reef. Jen Marohasy photographed the surface of this coral when she visited Bramston Reef with Peter Ridd in August 2019. “It was so soft, like a carpet, but firm from the corallite: the limestone skeleton supporting individual coral polyps.”

Great Barrier Reef Truth may be inconvenient but it is out there

Graham Lloyd in The Australian describes the situation:

The yearly [coral growth] rings are roughly 10 millimetres thick so a coral many metres across can be hundreds of years old. In a landmark study, AIMS took cores from more than 300 corals on the GBR and concluded that for the past 300 years coral growth was stable, but in 1990 there was an unprecedented and dramatic collapse of 15 per cent.

Peter Ridd explains AIMS didn’t measure the rings correctly and used young and small corals, not the original large old corals of 1990:

With Thomas Stieglitz and Eduardo da Silva, I reanalysed the AIMS data and, in our opinion, AIMS made two significant mistakes.

The first was incorrect measurement of the near-surface coral growth rings on most of the corals that were giving data from 1990 to 2005. After years of argument AIMS has begrudgingly agreed that it made this mistake. The other problem is that it used much smaller and younger corals for the 1990-2005 data compared with the mostly very large and old corals of the pre-1990 data — it changed its methodology and this is what caused the apparent drop at 1990. When we corrected this problem, the fall in growth rate disappeared.

 No Data on Coral Growth Rates for 15 Years

Jennifer Marohasy’s Blog

This is the first in a series of blog posts planned on what Peter is calling ‘The Coral Challenge’. Graham Lloyd has a companion piece, also in today’s The Australian.

Great Barrier Reef Truth May Be Inconvenient, But It Is Out There
By Dr Peter Ridd

We have no data of Great Barrier Reef coral growth rates for the last 15 years. Has growth collapsed as the Australian Institute of Marine Science claims?

Is the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) being affected by climate change, the acidification of the ocean, and the pesticides, sediment and fertiliser from farms? One way to tell is to measure the coral growth rates. Our science institutions claim that coral growth rates collapsed between 1990 and 2005 due to stress from human pollution. Remarkably, despite having data of coral growth rates for the last few centuries, there is no data for the last 15 years. We don’t know how the GBR has fared since 2005.

 

Great Barrier Reef growth rates,

Peter Ridd is predicating that when the data is finally analysed it will show little change in growth rates, perhaps some improvement. The Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), in contrast, is predicting a significant fall in coral calcification rates.
Science is a method. The best test of competing theories, hypotheses and claims is with the data.

If I had time, I’d do a similar graph of the AIMS reputation, which might be the only thing matching the AIMS graph prediction right now.

But a second and almost equally valuable outcome of measuring the missing data is that it will be an acid test of the trustworthiness of our major science institutions. AIMS have dug in their heels and denied they made a major methodological mistake. Let’s do the experiment and see if they are right, or untrustworthy. Same for me. If this measurement is done, and done properly, and it shows there has been a major reduction in coral growth rates, I will be the first to accept I was wrong and that there is a disaster happening on the reef.

The coral challenge is a measurement that will have to be done sooner or later. The longer it is neglected the worse it will look to the public. Farmers who are accused of killing the reef are especially interested.

We need to make sure these new measurements are done properly and without any questions about reliability. They must be supervised by a group of scientists that are acceptable to both sides of the agricultural debate on the reef to ensure methodology and execution is impeccable.

There is more on Jen’s blog:https://jennifermarohasy.com/2020/01/no-data-on-coral-growth-rates-for-15-years/

Golly and gee….  the missing data rather says an awful lot. One of those rare times when the lack of data is more conclusive than any error bars ever could be.

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Rating: 9.4/10 (90 votes cast)
Global Mystery: Barrier Reef dying, total panic, but no one cares enough to measure growth for last 15 years?, 9.4 out of 10 based on 90 ratings

226 comments to Global Mystery: Barrier Reef dying, total panic, but no one cares enough to measure growth for last 15 years?

  • #
    Serp

    Unfortunately nobody who counts in government or the media gives a monkey’s what Marohasy and Ridd say.

    260

  • #

    Great post, this is a critical error in the credibility of the “science” behind global warming GBR panic, so popular in the mainstream media over the last 30 years. It will be replicated across many fields for many years as the scam collapses, and if the public and therefore politicians generally just say “so what?” and don’t change their stupid positions on the global warming scare campaign, there is little hope of our modern technological society surviving. I kind of don’t care, because “reap what you sow” (“Red Rising” credit) fits very well, and if the comforts of modern life are not appreciated, they may as well be lost. But as always it is the old and the poor who will pay the highest price.

    301

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Have some info on the south coast fires, in particular from rellies around Batemans Bay. Trying to peice it all togther so apologies if I’ve got anything incorrect.

      The good news is that people are indeed wise, and see clealry its a fire fuel load problem, in fact the locals are spitting blood about the preventable nature of the fires – the greenies ( who are known to be pretty much anti-everything around the bay area ) are sensibly keeping a low profile.

      On New years eve, the fire jumped the highway Nelligen and made its way down to south batemans bay. It tore through the tall timbers that run basically next to most of the housing, most houses in the new estates in the tall timbers we suspect are gone, likely at least 20 houses. The fire skirted south, hit Malua bay , then changed direction when a southerly kicked in and it stormed up toward the main town like a blow torch and at times had 50m high ( 150 feet ) tall flames. The thing that basically stopped it completely destroying all of Batemns Bay was George Bass drive – a 100m wide fire break in effect.

      The sad thing is all the wonderful tall timbers are now gone and likely need to be bulldozed into the ground, so because of the selfishness of the greenies, the timber could have been at least harvested for funriture, but now no one gets to use it. More animals die in these uncontrolled firestorms than from slow low intensity hazard reduction burning.

      I guess one up side is the housing construction business will be invigorated and more land now available for housing.

      Fuel + fire + wind = fire intensity

      Reduce the fuel, reduce the intensity.

      70

      • #
        William

        Steve, I went to one of the fire ravaged towns last week and everyone there also blamed fuel loads, including the RFS Captain who said in the conditions they had, it was the only problem causing the megafires – that and arsonists. Hazard reduction and proper maintenance in the National Parks would have significantly reduced the fires. Driving through the region what was concerning as there were parts of the National Park that had not yet burnt, and it looked like a well stacked tinderbox. Terrifying is the word that sprang to mind and I was glad to bet back to the city.

        Interestingly I just saw PM Morrison being abused by locals at Combargo – they all appeared to be new age types (judging by their hair cuts and clothing) and I would not be surprised if they were amonngst those who protested against controlled burns – as at Nowa Nowa which is now on fire.

        60

      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        You might be interested in this quote:
        ” “[Fuel loads]… has been a constant source of feedback by those on the ground. Issues in national parks, issues of hazard reduction and how that has worked over a period of time, that needs to be looked at undoubtedly,” the prime minister said on Thursday. ”
        It’s from Scott Morrison, and, to my surprise, quoted in today’s SMH Latest section (iPad app version):

        http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-betrayers-of-the-environment-labor-greens-at-war-over-climate-policy-20200102-p53oia.html?btis
        ….
        Perhaps he’s actually received the message. I just hope he also heard about the role of local councils and land clearing laws.
        Cheers
        Dave B

        10

    • #
      MurrayA

      Just to add yet another lie to the already long catalogue, see the latest item on Sky News that December 2019 is the hottest month on record! It certainly wasn’t that here in southern Victoria, where we had two hot days for the entire month. The rest was average to below average, even quite cold at times. How long must we endure these palpable lies?? I am sick and tired of these “hottest most evaahh” reports.
      Joanne: perhaps you could investigate this?

      60

  • #
    Graham Richards

    When will we get comment from Qld State minister for the environment, does relevant the minister have access to this information . We can discuss & point fingers at many but it s now time to get public comment & discussion from the minister. Not some comment which sweeps all information under the carpet! We want to see really public conversation………or do they have something to hide. (The most likely outcome)

    We also need comment & conversation from the pro Paris Accord federal government which is hiding a lot of information from the electorate. So much for democracy & Australian sovereignty.
    Time for the truth not just on this subject but on the real cause of the bushfires. Management of National parks on “fuel” control. Both major Parties need to agree on dumping the dividimg ideologies of the Green left. The Greens represent less than 10% of the electorate so why are they driving policy?? Or is the UN the actual driving force????

    240

    • #
      hatband

      Perhaps the Poms in the street might be rethinking Brexut?

      The bloke over there in charge of Post Brexit Agriculture Policy is giving a speech in London

      tonight where he will tell the audience that the British livestock herd needs to be reduced by 90%

      to combat the effects of climate change.

      08

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        A truly British Dumbat !
        Straight out of a goons script !

        120

        • #
          sophocles

          Hah! You’re not wrong Bill!
          Spike Milligan would have found the last three or four years of UK/British politics to be incredibly fertile sources for his brand of humour. The 2019 UK Parliament could have had a year’s worth of Goon Shows alone.

          (Or is that Spike Milligna, the Well Known Typing Error)

          20

    • #
      truth

      You are so right.

      Since 2015 when this country ditched democracy and vetoed the people’s vote for a rich man’s ambition …so he could tick off ‘PMship’ on his bucket list ..so he could force Australia to obey the foreign diktat…Australia has been in trouble…sick and disoriented…in decline…swamped by global lies and propaganda…. with an illegitimate government doing its opponents’ policy that its own constituents expressly voted against.

      All of this deceit and mayhem is overseen and orchestrated …and its policy outcomes enforced …by Australia’s almost 100% Left wing journalists…the ones with the whip hand…the ones who decide that Australians must be fed lies and propaganda because their own nefarious ends require such malevolent means.

      Australia is broken and will never trust authority in government or science again…until ..as you say …we see discussion…debate…evidence…both sides respected…fraud investigated and dealt with…mistakes acknowledged and corrections made …on what’s supposed to be the most seminal issue of the last two centuries…the issue for which Australia is required to top itself…deliberately place itself in a more precarious position than any other 1st world country on the face of the earth….yet never ever question.

      152

      • #
        Jonesy

        Bloody thumb…that is NOT a red vote from me…my thumb did it..honest!

        50

      • #
        PeterS

        Voters have the power to voice their anger and disgust at what’s happening around them at the various levels, local to nation wide. Perhaps at the next elections we will see a massive rise of support for parties that do have the right stance on climate change topic and other important issues, such as ON. We will see what happens in the Queensland election later this year. If most are still asleep and/or too dumb nothing will change and we will continue to spiral down until we crash and burn.

        50

        • #
          truth

          The trouble is PeterS…there’s no way in our system to withhold your vote from the two major parties without withholding your vote altogether.

          A One Nation vote sends a message …but in the end it still gets distributed to either Labor or LNP and LNP is still …with Scott Morrison… on Turnbull/Labor’s transition to 3rd world energy insecurity and poverty….still juggernauting Australia into being the only 1st world country committing suicide for this hoax…the only nation to be totally dependent on 100% weather-dependent intermittents…forever…while all our competitors will have the security of baseload power or easy access to it forever.

          It will only get worse after these fires. My LW relatives are already using the fires as endorsement of their CAGW hysteria.

          30

          • #
            PeterS

            If enough voters vote say ON over the LNP or ALP then we have a new force in town since they will have a lot of seats in parliament even if they don’t hold enough to form government in their own right. It’s up to the people to decide. Do they want the circus to continue ping-ponging between the two majors or try another way and have a minority government held to account by an third party? Most of us know where the former approach will lead us; it will end in tears. The latter might too but at least we tried using the system of democracy we currently have; warts and all.

            10

  • #
    David Maddison

    Does anyone know what, if anything, the half billion dollars Turnbull threw at reef “research” is being used for?

    351

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Holidays and booze probably David because there’s no research being done by the look of it .

      240

    • #

      They’re working on their logo.

      260

    • #
      Jonesy

      Same again! Re-education camp for thumb

      60

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Now I’m not one to start rumours but my sources tell me that turdballs millions is being used in vital research .
      They are doing extensive and exhaustive research into the viability of a painted cray fishing industry .
      At the moment they are working on which wine to serve with the Crays and have narrowed it down to two .
      Chateau Lafitte 49 and Brut Champagne , further testing is underway to get the exact wine temperature and correct cooking time So the consumer can maximise their eating experience.

      120

    • #
      MichaelinBrisbane

      The editorial in today’s The Australian is worth reading. Some 20% has gone on Administration.

      110

    • #
      Analitik

      Here you go. That A$443 million is being spent on:
      1. Resilient Reefs is bringing together local communities, reef managers and resilience experts across five World Heritage Reef sites to develop new solutions to combat the effects of climate change.
      2. Reef Islands Initiative is the establishment of a network of climate change refuges to protect critical habitats on four Great Barrier Reef islands
      3. Reef Restoration (Coral IVF) – capturing coral eggs and sperm during spawning to rear coral larvae before delivering these healthy ‘baby’ corals onto small areas of reefs
      4. Out of the Blue Box challenge – to match-make coral and deliver new coral ‘babies’ using robotics onto the reef
      5. Reef Trust Partnership – – delivering and building on the Reef 2050 Plan, including 11 water quality improvement projects, 25 Community Reef protection, and 18 Traditional Owner Reef protection projects.

      https://www.barrierreef.org/science-with-impact

      20

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Does this mean we can mine coal again on the Reef ? (Sarc).

    70

  • #
    Aussie Pete

    This is right up there with the “no more snow” chicanery. The good thing about both this and the forecast extinction of Frosty the Snowman is that there is no science needed to get the gist. Not even a pesky decimal point to test the attention span of a goldfish or indeed that of your average “we must believe the science” acolyte.

    150

    • #
      Another Ian

      ” The good thing about both this and the forecast extinction of Frosty the Snowman is that there is no science needed to get the gist.”

      And the gist the other way is that it is much easier to feel results with confidence if there is no pesky data to confound that result

      80

  • #
    WXcycles

    Good timing with the Sky interview too. ;-)

    90

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    It occurs to me that most of the “crises” we hear about are based on about 25 minutes of intense media coverage, but attempt to create 100 year predictions based of 1 day of actual data.

    Its brain dead politics at its worst…

    80

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Listeningbto Alba-who? Interviewed by an ABC fan boy tonight. They degenerated into wide eyed climate change analysis, and at that point i turned it off and walked away shaking my head…

    The Idiotocracy is here…

    240

    • #
      Sambar

      Me too O.S. Got to the point about 2 minutes in when the announcer started with the “undeniably climate change” vomitous. Just turned it off.
      Meanwhile, a bit more “fake news” on News.com declared that 10,000 homes had been lost in these fires. Had to visit a sick relative and by the time I got back I can no longer find this little “factoid”. May be there is a proof reader still out there that questioned the number. Who can tell.

      140

      • #
        Another Ian

        That is a number that will probably “spectacularly” reappear if it wasn’t corrected

        30

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Its a clear propaganda activity.

          Some in the Bolshevik Collective might be true wide-eyed ( ignorant and useful idiot ) believers, but the Politburo-linked or smarter ones and therefore complicit Collaborators, know full well its a propaganda operation.

          That is why I hated watching it, its really clear its an organized campaign of lies.

          Goebbels would be very proud.

          80

    • #
      PeterS

      Vines are being sent to the International Space Station to see if they can make better wines to tackle the effects of climate change. That’s how far the scam has progressed so far. It’s going to get much worse before it all collapses bringing down the West in the process if we are not careful.

      90

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        How many vines to the acre are they planting?
        And what grape varieties have they chosen? Pagadebiti? or Blanc de Morgex**?

        **obscure variety grown in Switzerland well suited to high altitude cultivation.

        30

      • #
        Another Ian

        Well someone has to get the “first home brew in space” award

        10

    • #
      William

      When the inevitable flooding arrives, all that will happen is the alarmists will recharge their batteries and keep screaming that it is further proof of AGW/MMCC. And after that when the inevitable droughts arrive, all that will happen is the alarmists will recharge their batteries and keep screaming that it is further proof of AGW/MMCC. And after that when the inevitable floods arrive … repeat and repeat and repeat again.

      NOAA has run a completely standardised temperature measurement since 2004 (USCRN) – there have been no adjustments and 114 platinum resistance thermometers and recording sites have been unaltered and guess what, it shows no warming at all. The anti-sceptics are doing their best to explain that although the monthly plotting shows no warming, the anual plotting tells a different story. They don’t seem to notice that the annual plotting actually shows cooling since 2011.

      60

    • #
      Robdel

      Do any of these green crazies or politicians read the comments here? If they did so they would be able to gauge the sentiments of the general public.

      30

  • #

    [...] Ridd challenges the alarmist tales about the decline of the Barrier Reef, as reported by Jo Nova. If  you have access to his piece in [...]

    21

  • #
    Terry Andrews

    The turnbull cash is being used to hire telemarketers to raise more cash. I was rung after responding to FB clickbait. Apparently $400,000,000 is not enough

    120

  • #
    Bulldust

    O/topic: Remember when science shows were just about science? Youtube has put out a great 4 part series on AI. Watched 3 of the 4 so far, and not a hint of PC nonsense:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwsrzCVZAb8

    I highly recommend this if you like technology shows. Have the tissues ready for episode 2.

    51

  • #
    ivan

    This is almost a re run of the polar bear stupidity where someone gets a bee in their bonnet and makes up stories to fit their ideas rather than do actual real research i.e. actually go out of their office and get dirty on site. It says a lot about the quality of academic research on the reef. I think we can conclude they don’t do any – what a waste of money.

    140

  • #
    yarpos

    Reminds me of how the BOM stopped updating its cyclone severity/frequency bar chart for a long time after it was clear it was going off script. They came out with a new version now playing the extreme event card, saying that cyclones will be less frequent but more severe. The big one is coming! in reality it always is , nothing has changed in that regard. Another Tracy or Yasi will happen, although now of course it just has to be about AGW like the current fires. The speed at which the AGW industry has piled on before the fores are even over is truly sickening. Their agenda, above all.

    210

  • #
    george1st:)

    I visited Green Island in 2000,2010,2019 and definitely 2019 the coral was much whiter , less colourful and even fewer and smaller fish and turtles .
    That is only from observation and disappointment , the glass bottom boat and submarine talkies said it was due to local cyclones and even worse the starfish invasion .
    The Green Island reef is only a very tiny portion of the GBR but a very important tourist attraction and $$ .
    Australia needs to promote the reef has not died and will regrow as it always has .

    111

  • #

    I know you hate this thing about supporting evidence and apologies if I missed it…

    - I can’t find a link or a link within the links that gives me any ability to replicate the graph presented. Where is the data for that?

    - Where is the evidence for this claim “no one is worried enough to bother measuring the actual supposed decline”. I know it is providing evidence for a negative but if I get onto web of science tomorrow and search for “barrier reef” AND “decline” AND “production” within the time period stated will I find nothing pertaining to this topic?

    - why are you using a time point rate to project into the future. Is there a reason to do this? Isn’t this one of the errors, that I happen to agree with, that you decry. Just because it is delta x now doesn’t justify extrapolation unless there is some reason to do so.

    021

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      This a lift from “the Australian’ – so look there.

      What I don’t understand is how a 15% decline in the growth rate translates to 30% decline for the reef. As long as the growth rate is positive new reef will be added.

      /and I’m accused of sloppy maths

      322

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        30% of 15% is 4.5%.

        Conversely 15% of 30% is slightly larger at 4.5%.

        Time to get things in proportion.

        KK

        90

      • #
        Peter Ridd

        star comment
        Dear Peter, the 15% is the decline first attributed by AIMS from 1990 to 2005. The 30% figure is the extrapolation for another 15 years at a similar rate. It would be unlikely that coral cover, which has stayed more or less the same for 300 years, suddenly dropped between 1990 and 2005, but then stayed the same for the following 15 years. So the 30% is a reasonable extrapolation of the AIMS data. IF AIMS want to make an alternative prediction, they are welcome to do this and I encourage them. It is all academic in any case. When this measurement is finally done, the data will speak for itself.

        40

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Hello Peter,

          Thank you for that explanation and my apologies for appearing to trivialise an issue that you have full understanding of.

          Unfortunately in this modern world of “free speech”, where anyone is entitled to comment, there are Those such as PF who indicate that their only intent is to damage the discussion.
          Hence my facetious comments to try to match stupidity with similar.

          Thank you for the position you have taken publicly and best wishes for the New Year.

          Regards, Keith.

          30

    • #
      william x

      Gee Aye

      You quote:

      “I can’t find a link or a link within the links that gives me any ability to replicate the graph presented. Where is the data for that?”

      So you can’t find the data Gee Aye?

      I can. Why can’t you?

      It is probably because Fitz hasn’t updated the links or data on Wikipedia re the barrier reef yet.

      Be patient. He will probably reply very soon to this post and you will have your answers.

      130

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Fitz & GA…Why not look here
      For the evidence you desperately don’t want to discover !
      https://jennifermarohasy.com/2020/01/no-data-on-coral-growth-rates-for-15-years/

      130

  • #
    George4

    I saw an episode of a UK documentary series on SBS the other night “Australia With Julia Bradbury” featuring Queensland.
    It talked about the reef and that half of it was already lost due to climate change and it could all be gone by 2050 unless action is taken on the climate.
    I think the bullsh!t fed to overseas audiences about the reef is even worse than what we get here.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/1656684099883/australia-with-julia-bradbury-queensland
    starts at 22:30

    150

    • #
      Dennis

      Always about the GBR, no other Australian coral reefs.

      Maybe this is because the GBR is a tourist destination?

      60

      • #
        WXcycles

        It used to be a tourist draw-card, until the rabid-idiot Greenies started doing the best they could to destroy tourism and harm Queensland families, businesses and employment as much as they can.

        90

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Well yes…the communist main push is to destroy the middle class so everyone can be eqially miserable.

          Leftism appears to be an illness, what else explains such institutionalized and organized nastiness?

          50

  • #
    Raymond

    CORAL BLEACHING
    Interview with Dr. Peter Ridd
    https://youtu.be/3WbGVAo1hyQ
    Skip to 5:40 for a short but very interesting explanation on coral bleaching

    I’ve also added some new charts on the basics of CO2 for those who want to learn more.
    https://www.ric-communications.ch/referenzen/simple-science.html

    Dr. Peter Ridd is as he says an environmentalist as well as a believer in free speech.

    Happy New Years!

    100

  • #
    David Maddison

    I’m surprised the Socialist Morning Herald published this. Things must be bad if even they will publish an anti-Green piece like this.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/green-ideas-must-take-blame-for-deaths-20090211-84mk.html

    60

  • #
    frednk

    The melting of Greenland has accelerated. You don’t have to be bright to see that ice on land that flows to the sea as water results in a sea level rise. Someone who can use a slide ruler has concluded this is going to result in a sea level rise of a few meters. No it is not science mumbo jumbo. Surface area of ocean * the level rise equals the volume of water stored in land based ice.
    See https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48387030 I assume you will dismiss this as false news.

    We have had Bolt publish a lot of rubbish on the Antarctic. Sorry folks it is also a large land mass with a lot of ice on it and it is melting.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/past-antarctic-ice-melt-reveals-potential-for-extreme-sea-level-rise-20191106-p537y4.html
    At some point the container ports are going to have to rise. Do you still publish rubbish when this happens?

    Do the planet a favor, do an experiment, that is the thing scientists do to try and understand complex issues. I know you hate science and you think they are all crooks, but the scientific method has proved useful.

    Get your eskie, put some beer and ice in it, go down to the beach and don’t drink the beer until the ice melts. Observe that as the ice melts the temperature does not change much, once the ice has melted the beer gets hot. What you are observing is the enthalpy of fusion, when melting 1 kg of ice, 333.55 kJ of energy is absorbed with no temperature change.

    A lot of the energy that is not escaping back to space because of our CO2 blanket is going into melting our ice cubes, the real fun starts when the ice cubes are gone. We are the beer.

    We are in the middle of fires from Queensland to Tasmania. The thing is, it is climate change, it doesn’t stop this year. Do you stop publishing this rubbish next time we have another fire event?

    To see the damage to the great barrier reef you just need to do a few dives, it gets worse every year. At what point do you stop publishing rubbish that tries to belittle what is going on.

    There must be some point where reality penetrates, and you feel a little ashamed of your participation in the great denial attempt. Surly.

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      Fred, calculating the total amount of ice is harder than you think. There are different ways and they all disagree. The amounts of melting are tiny compared to the total. The rate of melting and temperature change has been worse before. The rate of sea level rise has slowed, is tiny according to 1000 tide guages (Beenstock et al). Antarctica was supposed to warm twice as fast as most of the globe but the only parts of Antarctica that are warming are sitting on top of volcanoes. The biggest glacier on greenland stopped shrinking. All these I have posted and we have discussed.

      I could go on… do stick around and find out the facts that the BBC / ABC forgot to tell you. Of course though, if you are just here to score condescending smug points while ignoring all the data you’ll find out why believers don’t have any fun when surrounded by calm skeptics.

      http://joannenova.com.au/2019/07/antarctica-was-warmer-one-thousand-years-ago-and-life-was-ok/
      http://joannenova.com.au/tag/antarctica/

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        frednk

        Dear Jo

        10000 years ago you could still walk to Tasmania. Sea level rises come and sea level rises go. The last 10000 years have been remarkably stable. There will be changes and we have to adapt to the changes.

        I’m sorry JO, the science behind why CO2 is a green house gas is very simple. Understanding that heat comes into the planet from the sun and that heat has to go back out is also very simple to understand.

        No amount of mumbo jumbo hides the basic science.

        Unfortunately for people like you we don’t need another 2 degrees, the changes are happening will continue to happen and are accelerating. It is going to become more obvious and your position will be harder to self justify.

        We could have been moving our economy sooner, but we didn’t. In my view the damage people like you have done is pretty much over.

        You may not like it but the ruling class, the class that owns the assets are close to panic. Ports drowning is not going to be pretty.

        I’m just a little bit curious when does this stop? When we have to rebuild our ports? Will that be good enough? When it becomes impossible to insure houses against fire? When?

        02

        • #

          The last 10,000 years have been “this stable”. Yeah? You know how many spikes their models can explain, about 1 out of 30.

          Greenland graph, holocene.

          No need for you to be sorry for having no idea what’s going on. Just study up before you toss the insults OK?

          Greenhouse gas absorption is simple, but your guru’s have hidden the complexity. They can’t model humidity, clouds or rain which are all vastly more important than CO2. That’s why their models fail pathetically.

          When does this madness stop? When people stop pretending that “climate denier” is a science term, and they give up the bullying and listen to the people who were right all along.

          The madness ends only when people remember what science is, and that means the data, not the fantasy failing models.

          You are being used…

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            frednk

            If we are going to look at temperature graphs this is the one I love. It highlights just how unstable our weather is.

            It shows how unusual this last 10,000 years has been. It also shows that coming out of an ice age has been quite regular, that there is a dust level rise before each ice age ends ( volcanic activity?), that there is a goldilocks level of CO2 ( all is not lost) and each inter glacier period ends abruptly.

            Currently the dust level is down and CO2 levels are up. We have in my view stopped the next ice age but over cooked the goose. On the positive side we have advanced to the stage where we can move to renewable energy and no longer need fossil fuel for our transport. Are we as a species smart enough to extend the 10,000 years, or are we going to stuff it up and destroy our civilization. A see level riseof a few meters will do that.

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            frednk

            The insert graph didn’t work. This si the location.
            ‘https://www.qm.qld.gov.au/microsites/dino/images/03/22-Antarctic-Temps.jpg

            10

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            frednk

            frednk

            January 3, 2020 at 6:42 pm · Reply

            If we are going to look at temperature graphs this is the one I love. It highlights just how unstable our weather is.

            https://www.qm.qld.gov.au/microsites/dino/images/03/22-Antarctic-Temps.jpg

            It shows how unusual this last 10,000 years has been. It also shows that coming out of an ice age has been quite regular, that there is a dust level rise before each ice age ends ( volcanic activity?), that there is a goldilocks level of CO2 ( all is not lost) and each inter glacier period ends abruptly.

            Currently the dust level is down and CO2 levels are up. We have in my view stopped the next ice age but over cooked the goose. On the positive side we have advanced to the stage where we can move to renewable energy and no longer need fossil fuel for our transport. Are we as a species smart enough to extend the 10,000 years, or are we going to stuff it up and destroy our civilization. A see level rise of a few meters will do that.

            10

            • #
              el gordo

              ‘ … there is a dust level rise before each ice age ends ( volcanic activity?) ….’

              Actually no, at the Last Glacial Maximum the whole country was a desert with sand dunes reaching to the Great Dividing Range, then dust settled on the eastern seaboard.

              This type of aridity spike can be seen throughout paleoclimate history, in both hemispheres, and gives us a ball park figure on temperatures.

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          Kalm Keith

          Try 20,000 years ago dopey.

          10

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          Kalm Keith

          The “ruling class” is the mob behind this scam.

          Seas have dropped 4 to 6 metres over the last 7,000 years in a decreasing oscillating pattern.

          Seas fell 1.2 metres in the last two thousand years and have stumbled around in recent times.

          It’s known as the interglacial highstand.

          KK

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            Kalm Keith

            If there ever was a Noahs ark, it would be stuck somewhere about 4 metres above current sea level.

            Certainly not on the top of mount Ararat.

            KK

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          AndyG55

          “No amount of mumbo jumbo hides the basic science.”

          That’s all AGW hypothesis mumbo jumbo.

          Come on fred, produce some actual empirical evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2.

          Very basic science,, but you have NONE.

          You have NOTHING but mantra regurgitation.

          —-

          Ports drowning, when the sea level rise is around 2mm per year

          OMG fred, you are seriously DELUDED.!!

          00

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            frednk

            I know you consider science to be off limit but this site explains why CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

            https://scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation

            00

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              AndyG55

              Now where is the evidence that this pretty picture causes any warming?

              You do know that the frequencies of CO2 emission are a tiny thin sliver that is too weak to warm anything at atmospheric temperature, and only have a mean free path of some 10m, don’t you??

              You do know that the collisional time of CO2 molecules is some magnitudes faster than it re-emission time at lower atmosphere levels, meaning that any energy absorbed is dissipated before re-emission can occur.

              You do know that CO2 does not re-emit much below 11km, don’t you.

              Seems “basic” science, is all you are capable of.

              The AGW scammers are great at CONNING the scientifically illiterate like you.

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              • #
                frednk

                I see,

                You do know that CO2 does not re-emit much below 11km, don’t you.

                That is the point, the CO2 atom absorbs the photon and doesn’t re-emit, the radiation does not go back to space, the energy goes into a velocity increase in the CO2 atom. Atom velocity is heat.

                But anyway, I didn’t engage to try and convince you science has some merit, I was more interested in the depth you guys held your beliefs.

                You and people like you do have one small problem, the changes are going to continue, we are going to have to adapt. Science has proven pretty good at predicting the future, I doubt there has been a conspiracy involving thousands of people, and I have no doubt the record of man kinds science achievements will continue.

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                frednk

                I should have written Co2 molecule. It is the molecule bond the interacts with the photon.

                00

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        • #
          AndyG55

          “the science behind why CO2 is a green house gas is very simple”

          We are waiting for your empirical evidence that increased atmospheric CO2 causes warming.

          IFF you knew any real science, you would know it is not possible.

          Did you know that warming by increased atmospheric CO2 has never been observed, let alone measured, anywhere on the planet !!

          Bring your science, little freddie. !!

          Clowns like you are ever present.

          00

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            frednk

            For your empirical evidence study the graph. It’s pretty clear that we enter an ice age when there is no dust and the CO2 levels fall.
            https://www.qm.qld.gov.au/microsites/dino/images/03/22-Antarctic-Temps.jpg

            I linked to an article that explained why green house gases are green house gases above. It does require one to accept that heat radiation can be represented as photons, that they are bundles of energy vibrating at different frequencies and the different molecular bonds interact with photons of different frequencies.

            It’s the same explanation as used to explain why some solids are transparent to visible light and some are not. If you start accepting the science it really is all quite fascinating and pretty amazing that the hairless monkeys have worked it out.

            00

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              AndyG55

              Antarctic temperatures..

              sure, been cooling since 1900.

              You linked to an article with explains the simple non-facts for climate believers.

              Yes CO2 can re-emit, but at a frequency which cannot warm anything.

              And not at an altitude where it can get anywhere near the surface.

              It doesn’t actually re-emit below 11km

              Do you not understand basic science beyond what the AGW scammers sell you ?

              Are you really that scientifically ignorant ???

              Stop regurgitating all the FAILED propaganda non-science you have been fed, and start to think for yourself, if you are capable..

              And thanks for that graph,

              It shows categorically that at peak CO2 the globe started to cool.

              Peak CO2 COULD NOT maintain or increase the global temperature.

              That is what the graph tells us.

              00

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      robert rosicka

      Frednk there were some aircraft that landed on that ice during World War Two and abandoned , suggest you check the internet and find out just how far under the ice they are now .

      50

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      Annie

      Frednk, what happens to the water-level in which the beer sits after the ice melts? Eh?

      30

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        frednk

        Do the experiment. Hint the ice turns to water and it is a puddle in the bottom,the water level rises.

        If the ice is floating in the water there is no change in level.

        00

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          AndyG55

          Except there is no evidence of ocean levels rising any faster now than they have been for over a century.

          There is no evidence of any effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on sea level rise.

          Your argument is like old beer,

          FLAT !

          00

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            frednk

            It really doesn’t matter does it, whatever is going to happen will happen. I have faith in science, it has proved pretty good at predicting the future. In my view faith in science is required to be an engineer, it is all we have.

            It would be nice to use the science to prepare for the future, I am an optimist, I think that is what is going to happen. People like you claiming a grand conspiracy will be increasingly ignored as it becomes increasingly obvious we have stuffed it up.

            We could have for example better prepared for these fires.

            Ten years wasted, I don’t think it is the end of the world, not even the end of the species, the global civilization we have created may be stressed.

            If/as the consequences become more obvious is going to be pretty hard to maintain climate denial and remain in government.

            I was curious, what was the foundation of the denial and is it deep seated. Obviously it will take a little more than a few fires to shake your faith.
            [OK Fred, you're new here so I'll go easy: First and foremost we do NOT accept accusations of "denial" unless you include very specific detail about whatever you feel is denied. Second, accusations of "conspiracy" likewise need to have enough supporting comment for a decent rebuttal. Both terms are a catch-all ad-homy kind of insult commonly issued like swear words especially by paranoid warmists.]ED

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        GreatAuntJanet

        Is there still beer left?

        10

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      el gordo

      ‘A lot of the energy that is not escaping back to space because of our CO2 blanket ….’

      Objection, that is a myth.

      Global cooling has begun because of a quiet sun, which compresses our atmosphere, forcing the jet stream to meander. This in turn sees the formation of high pressure blocking in both hemispheres.

      This blocking pattern was well recognised by Hubert Lamb as an integral part of the mix entering the Little Ice Age.

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      AndyG55

      Area of Greenland ice is still way above what it has been for most of the last 8000 years

      Here is a graph of the Total Greenland Ice mass since 1900.

      Big numbers really do perplex you, don’t they !

      30

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      AndyG55

      A video you should listen to.

      https://youtu.be/ONbtguAVv0M

      What you hear from the climate media is basically LIES and MISINFORMATION

      40

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        robert rosicka

        Welcome back Andy , what I find the most amusing about the claims about XX kilometres of ice loss this year but it’s during their summer and that XX is probably being replaced in winter with interest but that point never gets mentioned.

        20

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        frednk

        One big conspiracy, NASA doing the measurements, people traveling the southern passage for the first time on our lifetimes, the fires. All one big conspiracy. What I am not clear about is the reason for this conspiracy?

        01

        • #
          AndyG55

          Facts can never be allowed to penetrate your brain-washing, can they ;-)

          20

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Frederick,

          The Southern Passage between the mainland and Tasmania has been open to shipping for about 15,000 years.

          KK

          20

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          Kalm Keith

          “What I am not clear about is the reason for this conspiracy?”

          And that’s the heart of the problem, most people don’t see the driving force.

          Depending where you are on the climate catastrophism food chain you may be content with any one of the following.

          . Seven tonnes of Gold bullion, e.g. MalEx444.

          . A secure well paying job as a Public Servant.

          . An insecure job as a politician which has the potential to pay big dividends if you can just get past the qualifying period.

          . Various employment in state and local government departments .

          . Being part of the activist team and running interference for all the above bankers and politicians and bloodsuckers, here your reward is to be part of the team. Go Team!

          Supporting all of this mess are the ever ready Aussie taxpayers who know something is wrong but can’t quite put their finger on it.

          KK

          10

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      el gordo

      ‘The thing is, it is climate change, it doesn’t stop this year.’

      The models failed to see the hiatus coming, massive fail, 20 years and counting.

      The blocking pattern in the southern hemisphere began in the Austral winter of 2017 and I expect it to continue for a couple of decades, because of a quiet sun. So on the ground we should expect a return to the 1950s and 60s, depending on the oscillations in play at any given moment.

      Your concern for the welfare of the GBR is misguided, a momentary drop in western Pacific sea level bleaches corals, not warm water. This happens during strong El Nino.

      ENSO is an enigma, but the hot money is on lunar tidal surges as a key component.

      00

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      David Maddison

      frednk, it so happens that by coincidence Tony Heller has just addressed your false claims about Greenland:

      https://youtu.be/ONbtguAVv0M

      Oh, and best not to describe us as stupid or anti-science. That’s the sort of thing only a scientific illiterate would say. I suppose you believe science is about “consensus” like most climate alarmists?

      When Einstein was told of a book called “100 Authors Against Einstein” (English title) he responded: Why 100? If I were wrong, one would have been enough.

      30

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      george1st:)

      What has Greenland got to do with Aussie ?
      Check the Fort Denison tidal gauge .
      Aust. has had droughts,floods,bushfires,cyclones since much longer than before it has ever been recorded by modern man .

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    Travis T. Jones

    Turns out emitting the trace gas CO2 is a truly lousy way of preventing coral growth …

    2019: “Buffeted by [global warming]-induced rising sea temperatures and coral bleaching, the world’s largest reef system goes into a frenzy once a year with a mass release of coral eggs and sperm that is synchronised to increase the chances of fertilisation.

    “There was three times the volume of eggs and sperm compared to last year, when the soft corals spawned four nights after the full moon and it was deemed to be the best coral spawn in five years,” he said.”

    https://phys.org/news/2019-11-great-barrier-reef-annual-mass.html

    Elsewhere, carbon (sic) reeks havoc …

    Sydney growing its own coral reef with help from tropical fish finding warmer waters

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-13/sydney-growing-own-coral-reef-with-help-from-tropical-fish/11466192

    Footnote, 2016: “They believe the seaweed was killed off between Palm beach and Cronulla by sewage pollution in the 1980s.
    But with improved water quality, the seaweed now thrives underwater.”

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/city-east/university-of-nsw-project-restores-lost-underwater-forests/news-story/2fc4dc73ce14e70542f6f342c261e84b

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    Steve of Cornubia

    Mrs Wife and I splashed out on a holiday at Heron Island some years ago, a tiny coral cay situated at the southern end of the GBR. It was rather expensive, but as it was our wedding anniversary, we dug deep.

    What a gorgeous location! It truly was an idyll, a sandy island surrounded by white sand, shallow blue and crystal-clear water surrounded by reef and accesible only by the resort’s ferry, or by helicopter. If I win the lottery, we’ll go back for another holiday there.

    Interestingly, I was surprised to find a marine research centre on the island, alongside the restaurant, bar and happy holidaymakers. we took a fascinating tour of the site and heard a little about what the researchers, tutors and students were doing.

    I would describe those attending the research station (operated by the Univ. of Queensland) as extremely lucky individuals. Previously, I imagined that marine research, especially that conducted by Brisbane-based UQ, to involve much staring down microscopes in drab laboratories, or fighting off seasickness in wind-buffeted tinnies. Now I know otherwise and can understand why Australian marine researchers needed Turnbull to give them such a huge amount of money. That sort of thing doesn’t come cheap …

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    Dave

    “The Morrison government clearly has the Doofus script. They are the climate change deniers and they are sticking to the ‘Nothing to See Here’ story with specific comments which cast them in the role of the Bad Doofus. Belittling volunteer firefighters has to be a new low in any Political Theatre. The Morrison suits are being scripted to make ‘climate change denial’ as horrible as possible in the eyes of Australians going through terrible ordeals.

    Then there are Bolsheviks and Trotsky-ites, together with the NGOs on the Soros Payroll Clearly these actors have the Good Goy script. They are busy cloaking this catastrophe in the ‘UN climate change’ mantra and they are ‘on message’ and ‘on point’ with the NWO solutions to our problems.

    So, of course, they are calling for the UN climate change dicta and its proposed legislation that will address the crisis we are having here. That would be the firestorms for which government (all Masonic political parties) in cahoots with international corporations are in large measure directly responsible.

    Meanwhile, back on the Money Trail. In the course of the Big Six Year Drought – we have Olam International (a Singapore Company) selling permanent water rights in Australia for $452.7 mil. to Canadian company PSP. And where did they get those rights? Well. The Australian government $89 mil water sale to Olam of Singapore.

    And how many other companies are selling permanent water rights and how did they acquire these assets in the first place?

    In Australia, there is no Centre or conservative party. In Australian politics, anyone to the right of Chairman Mao is an extremist.

    So the public is supposed to listen to the Good Goy script of the Communists and the Soros Payroll and blame the ecocide of the Darling River, the Big Six Year Drought and now the national bushfire emergency on carbon driven climate change, fossil fuels, CO2 respirators, cow farts, Australia’s carbon footprint – the size of a Yeti and the Dark Side of the Force.

    But the independent farmer , the small irrigators and farming communities , in point those ‘exited’ from the Murrumbidgee by Murrumbidgee Irrigation, the Boer, the Kulak is always the prime target of the Communist Revolution. And these would be the targets of the MDBA and its MD Basin Plan.

    Manifestly and objectively, there is a Plan. In terms of its stated objectives – clearly it is not working. The waters are being harvested and conserved. For Whom? For Whom exactly is the Plan working? It is obviously working for someone because they have gone to a lot of trouble to cloak their interests.

    ———

    De Kulakization – The term is now being used as a term Hybrid Warfare – usually wars conducted upon populations by their government. It derives from Stalin’s Five Year Plan which was specifically and publicly announced for the ‘liquidation’ of class enemy. The military was used against the Ukrainian Kulaks in the Five Year Plan – for example grain raids and executions on the land. This term is now being used for – the state sponsored terror against the Boer farmers by the Marxist gov’t of SA and often referred to as De-Kulakization. Drought, fire and removal of water are being geo-engineered in Australia. And this is for the removal of people from their properties. The removal of water for an entire district of Australian farmers is, I believe, another example of De-Kulakiztion. And this policy continues with provisions for military intervention in the planning of Local Government Authorities”.

    83

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      Kalm Keith

      Interesting, Dave.

      But isn’t there is website you can visit to get cheaper water, along with cheaper health care and cheaper electricity.

      Our governments wouldn’t just abandon us would they?

      There must be something else they can squeeze from us?

      Ah! How could I have missed it; a tax on sunlight.

      Maybe we’ll all have to move to Tasmania to get lower rates.

      KK

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        Dave

        As an outsider it was something I didn’t know much about (the water side of it).
        The same has happened here with the Christchurch aquifer, at a time of increased calls for Fluoridation of whats leftover for the locals.

        30

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      OriginalSteve

      I often wonder if after the fires on the south coast and forced mass relocation of people out of these areas, that we are seeing an engineered event….

      The tell will be if its made near impossible to get back into the areas ravaged by fire. The usual black hole of beaurocracy may be used to rewild many of these areas.

      30

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        Dave

        There were newspaper stories in NZ papers 10 years or so back with “Australian experts” saying people who live on the coast in Australia (in the high millions) will have to all relocate. Areas depopulated.
        And also speaking of a large population reduction too.
        That was in the NZ Herald.

        30

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        robert rosicka

        Original Steve I think you’ve confused Engineered with incompetence!

        10

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      hatband

      Then there are Bolsheviks and Trotsky-ites, together with the NGOs on the Soros Payroll

      Well said, Dave.

      Saw on another site just this morning, that Karl Popper

      was George Soros’s mentor.

      10

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      PeterS

      Very well done Dave. I’m right this minute watching (again) Chernobyl S1 Ep5. There are a lot of similarities in the lies, stupidity, mistakes and idiotic actions of the bureaucrats and politicians at all levels. The only difference so far is our “nuclear reactor” hasn’t blown up yet. It will eventually if nothing change, that you can bet your house on it.

      30

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      PeterS

      As I watched the end of the series the last statement was very apt. “What is the cost of lies?” In the case of the Chernobyl incident we already know. I wonder what will be the cost of lies in our current situation over the CAGW scam. I suppose in time we will know, and I’m certain it will be orders of magnitude higher.

      30

  • #

    that no one is worried enough to bother measuring the actual supposed decline

    measuring and decline need refining here. Are we talking about biodiversity, coral extent, biomass, water quality or some other thing or combination of things? Are you talking about a whole reef survey (on the ground or via satellite imagery) or multiple surveys of multiple things?

    Anyway here is a start with an assessment of decline and recovery based on several dozen listed publications including many dating from 2010 up until the present

    http://elibrary.gbrmpa.gov.au/jspui/handle/11017/3474

    page 226 onwards is the most focused for the topic at hand though it is discussed throughout.

    I also have to say that it is pretty easy to find lists of ongoing research at AIMS, JCU and elsewhere that are about monitoring and assessing reef health. Research granting agencies like ARC are also funding relevant research. Claiming that no one is doing anything is just wrong.

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      In a shocking development more than a hundred published studies examining reef health in the last 15 years have been hidden from climate skeptics. When asked about their claims that no one was doing anything, the skeptics stuck by their claims saying, “well those aren’t the studies we mean. We mean real empirical data measured by real scientists like Peter Ridd”.

      Results: 134
      (from Web of Science Core Collection)
      You searched for: TOPIC: (coral AND (growth rate) AND (great barrier reef))
      Timespan: Last 5 years. Indexes: SCI-EXPANDED, SSCI, A&HCI, CPCI-S, CPCI-SSH, ESCI, CCR-EXPANDED, IC.

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    • #
      WXcycles

      that no one is worried enough to bother measuring the actual supposed decline”

      I see you’ve deliberately taken those remarks out of context to make some ‘noise’.

      Peter Ridd was sufficiently explicit in what he was referring to his the interview on Sky last night. If you wanted to know such details you could do what a scientist would do, and email him specific questions or ask for access to relevant papers covering the topic, and the nature of claims or counterclaims.

      GBRMPA are a QLD State Govt bureaucracy, who see of over reef regulations, as a “reef management agency”. They’re a political organisation and do virtually no original research or monitoring of their own. In their early days GBRMPA did employ a couple of people to perform minimalist or token veneers of ‘monitoring’ as a ‘me-to’ effort, plus to have ‘research’ faces to put in front of media cameras and to represent it at conferences. Mostly so they didn’t seem completely useless and ignorant. But GBRMPA are not a reef-monitoring agency and do effectively nothing on their own but tax the public and to stymie recreational, sporting and economic activities or enjoyment in or near to the reef (and even well inland) on the basis of “protecting” the GBR Marine Park as the “GBR Authoritah”. A bunch of over-rated, over-payed, green-tape wielding good-for-nothing time-wasters. A parasitic organisation that should be simply eliminated, immediately. If the entire agency was moved to one of the moons of Jupiter, the reef would be better for it as certainly would be Australia and QLD in particular.

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        We mean real empirical data measured by real scientists like Peter Ridd

        i see you went straight for this approach. Well done.

        The report I linked to is a review of research done by others and as such is not original research although the authority has the main role in coordinating and regulating it. As I noted the report cites and documents a great many research articles that are the result of research conducted in the period when no one was supposedly doing any research.

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      el gordo

      ‘I also have to say that it is pretty easy to find lists of ongoing research at AIMS, JCU and elsewhere that are about monitoring and assessing reef health.’

      But what if the methodology is wrong?

      Its a red and blue team opportunity, and I nominate Jennifer Marohasy for our side. Who do you have in mind for your side? Must be proficient with underwater activity.

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      • #

        then critique the research, don’t make a specious claim that none is being done.

        07

        • #
          WXcycles

          Dr Ridd is pointing out that systematic large-scale annual monitoring of the entire reef length and width has not been occurring for this data. That this monitoring series is what matters to determine if there’s a real problem with coral growth rates and health.

          Piecemeal smaller discontinuous efforts by disparate groups and individuals in the interim is no replacement.

          He’s arguing that if claims are going to be continually made that the GBR corals are generally on the decline, he’s pointing out that the data needed to say this is not available anymore so such claims are at best, baseless. So argues for empiricism to return to back up claims with systematically gathered data.

          Most scientists would think this is how you sort science-wheat from politics-chaff and develop deeper understanding and eliminate costly fear-mongering and derailment of debate and policy.

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            Analitik

            Most scientists would think this is how you sort science-wheat from politics-chaff and develop deeper understanding and eliminate costly fear-mongering and derailment of debate and policy.

            Which categorically eliminates Gee Aye and Peter Fitzroy as possible scientists.

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          • #

            you realise that the studies that contributed to the (claimed by Jo) last time this was done, was an amalgam of many studies. Much of it was piecemeal. Did you read the original to check this?

            Basically, that is how the research is funded now and back then and that is what the scientists are coping with. The research into this has increased since the “baseline” and there have been multiple publications on the topic as well as amalgam studies. Basically the central premise of this blog post is false.

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            • #
              WXcycles

              What a backwards-configured donkey-cart of absurd nonsense you’re pushing, ‘gee-aye’.

              Basically, that is how the research is funded now and back then and that is what the scientists are coping with.

              Thus bio-scientists, or unhinged greenie-hysterics (is there another variety, politicians, and the mainstream media (ever blatant liars/propagandists to sell adds through fear and sensationalism) have no excuses for asserting conclusions or of making media claims, which are based on insufficient data, nor do they have a ‘science’ excuse for larger-scale generalized extrapolating or ‘homogenizing’ of insufficient point-observations, which used different methods and capacities, by people they don’t know, and who’s data they would not be able to ‘check’, due to there being no funds to do so.

              .
              Consequently, piecemeal small discontinuous efforts by disparate groups and individuals is no replacement for a proper long-term representative reef survey of the GBR, nor a valid basis to make claims about its overall health or growth trend.
              .

              Which is what AIMS is supposed to do, in conjunction with geophysics and marine sediment experts, just like Professor Peter Ridd.

              Peter Ridd (born on 25 December 1960) is a physicist, an author, and a former professor at James Cook University (JCU), North Queensland, Australia. He achieved his Bachelors of Science in Physics from James Cook University in 1978, and later his PhD in Physics from that same institution in 1980. At this time he also joined the Australian Institute of Marine Science. He started studying the Great Barrier Reef in 1984, mainly focusing on ocean currents and the movement of sediment. While teaching at James Cook University, he was the head of they Physics department from 2009 to 2016, and head of the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at that institution for 15 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Ridd

              Dr Ridd is an actual scientific expert on the topic speaking within his own field – while you are nothing of the sort and offer nothing but irrational denigration, because you’re not actually interested in the science, just in smearing the authors, and the Host.

              Peter Ridd knows a lot more about this topic than you ever will, and if he publicly states such growth-data does not exist I’m going to listen to the expert in that data, over any misanthropic greenie-hysteric, which all seem to think humans have no place in the natural environment (such as the GBR), even though humans are by far the most stunning integrated naturally-emergent evolved element of this same Earth’s natural biology and environment which the GBR is a part of.

              So if the GBR is to continue to thrive, then humans need hard-data and not just greenie political and media myths about its health and growth rate, as opposed to this current fashion of political pop-science fluff which now blatantly pretends to be a relevant replacement for on-going basic-research. What pontificating pop-sci fluff and media over claiming sans actual hard data is, is the on-going degeneracy of science research, and not any sort of replacement of it.

              Your ridiculous reprehensible claims and smear, that this post’s contents are in some way substandard, or lacking in substance, is just you being another warped greenie anti-science hypocrite, who on the one hand claims “the science” is important, but wants nothing to do with the gathering of actual hard-data to test the veracity of baseless claims that the GBR is degrading.

              That’s a reflection on you, and not on the authors, the blog post, the Host, or the comment forum you denigrate with your reverse-configured donkey-cart ‘arguments’ about data availability.

              10

              • #

                So you didn’t read the original research and you demonstrate no indication of understanding how the current research is being published so you complain about me not being as expert as someone else (in a thousand words or less)? How long did you waste on that rant?

                02

              • #
                AndyG55

                Seems that GA didn’t read any research at all.

                But he always sounds that way.

                Basic comprehension issues seem to be his meme. !

                11

              • #
                WXcycles

                … so you complain about me not being as expert as someone else …

                Um, no, it’s simply because you aren’t such an expert – deal with it.

                10

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      When the post mixes rates and area, and then spirals down a self referential rabbit hole, there can be no counter reference which is silly enough to compete

      011

      • #
        AndyG55

        But I’m sure you will attempt,

        even though you have never managed any empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2

        You really HATE it that the GBR is doing just fine, don’t you. ;-)

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  • #

    Personally I’m sufferin’ from a surfeit of fake news and fake research. AIM, BOM, ABC, be gone!

    100

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    pat

    open access for now. read the comments to see how difficult it is to communicated figures – $443m is interepreted as $4m by one reader:

    3 Jan: Australian Editorial: Research vital on reef coral
    Scientist Peter Ridd’s challenge to Great Barrier Reef authorities to update research on coral growth rates deserves support. Indeed, given the high level of concern and large amounts of public funds dedicated to the reef, it seems extraordinary that this work has not already been done. According to Dr Ridd, despite published claims of a collapse in coral growth rates between 1990 and 2005 due to stress from human pollution, there is no data for the past 15 years. Dr Ridd has proposed a program of drill core sampling to bring the record up to date and test whether assumptions about a collapse in growth rates due to warmer temperatures can be believed.

    If the earlier results are proven correct, Dr Ridd says he will be the first to accept he was wrong and that there is a disaster happening on the reef. His idea is a welcome case of put up or shut up for everyone concerned.

    Dr Ridd earlier suggested 1 per cent of the $443m granted by the Turnbull government to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation in August 2018 be used to check the quality of results from Australia’s peak marine science institutions on the reef.

    The updated drill core program would be an ideal candidate for funding. Ten per cent of that grant, $44.3m, already has been allocated to administration between 2018 and 2024. According to the latest financial report from the foundation almost 10 per cent of that, $4.2m, was spent from January 1 to June 30 last year on administrative activities related to the Reef Trust Partnership.

    In total, administrative costs were 20.9 per cent of total expenses for the six-month period and fundraising cost a further 7.4 per cent. The foundation says the costs were incurred to establish and maintain appropriate governance frameworks and are expected to fall over time…READ ON
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/editorials/research-vital-on-reef-coral/news-story/47ddcd95ba37993623dda1b4fb0a741b

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    • #
      Dennis

      How many employees?

      Six I think was mentioned.

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      • #
        pat

        Dennis –

        not sure if more have been employed or not.

        this is the rest of the editorial

        In the six months, 58 reef projects were committed, three-quarters of which were focused on traditional owners or community efforts. There were 11 water quality projects, 18 traditional owner reef protection projects, 25 community reef protection projects, three restoration and adaptation projects and one monitoring and reporting project.

        Worthy as these may be, what could be more important than making sure the data fuelling concerns about coral growth rates and a possible collapse in reef vitality are kept fully up to date?

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    pat

    3 Jan: news.com.au: The latest on the NSW and Victorian bushfires
    https://www.news.com.au/national/the-latest-on-the-nsw-and-victorian-bushfires/news-story/4ec4a00fa0349f3367de7fdac8f5255b

    NOT A HINT FROM SETH OR HIS ‘ESPERTS’ ABOUT THE BUILD-UP OF FUEL LOADS, ETC. JUST THE TREES ARE DRIER BLAH BLAH:

    2 Jan: WaPo: Q&A: How Climate Change, Other Factors Stoke Australia Fires
    By Seth Borenstein, Associated Press
    Australia’s unprecedented wildfires are supercharged thanks to climate change, the type of trees catching fire and weather, experts say…
    “They are basically just in a horrific convergence of events,” said Stanford University environmental studies director Chris Field, who chaired an international scientific report on climate change and extreme events. He said this is one of the worst, if not the worst, climate change extreme events he’s seen.
    “There is something just intrinsically terrifying about these big wildfires. They go on for so long, the sense of hopelessness that they instill,” Field said. “The wildfires are kind of the iconic representation of climate change impacts.”

    Q: Is climate change really a factor?

    A: Scientists, both those who study fire and those who study climate, say there’s no doubt man-made global warming has been a big part, but not the only part, of the fires…
    “What would have been a bad fire season was made worse by the background drying/warming trend,” Andrew Watkins, head of long-range forecasts at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said in an email.
    Mike Flannigan, a fire scientist at the University of Alberta in Canada, said Australia’s fires are “an example of climate change.”…

    Q: How does climate change make these fires worse?

    A: The drier the fuel — trees and plants — the easier it is for fires to start and the hotter and nastier they get, Flannigan said.

    “It means more fuel is available to burn, which means higher intensity fires, which makes it more difficult — or impossible — to put out,” Flannigan said.

    The heat makes the fuel drier, so they combine for something called fire weather. And that determines “fuel moisture,” which is crucial for fire spread. The lower the moisture, the more likely Australian fires start and spread from lightning and human-caused ignition, a 2016 study found.
    There’s been a 10% long-term drying trend in Australia’s southeast and 15% long-term drying trend in the country’s southwest, Watkins said. When added to a degree of warming and a generally southward shift of weather systems, that means a generally drier landscape.
    Australia’s drought since late 2017 “has been at least the equal of our worst drought in 1902,” Australia’s Watkins said. “It has probably been driven by ocean temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean and the long term drying trend.”…

    Q: Has Australia’s fire season changed?

    A: Yes. It’s about two to four months longer, starting earlier especially in the south and east, Watkins said.
    “The fires over the last three months are unprecedented in their timing and severity, started earlier in spring and covered a wider area across many parts of Australia,” said David Karoly, leader of climate change hub at Australia’s National Environmental science Program. “The normal peak fire season is later in summer and we are yet to have that.”…

    Q: Are people starting these fires? Is it arson?

    A: It’s too early to tell the precise cause of ignition because the fires are so recent and officials are spending time fighting them, Flannigan said.
    While people are a big factor in causing fires in Australia, it’s usually accidental, from cars and trucks and power lines, Flannigan said. Usually discarded cigarettes don’t trigger big fires, but when conditions are so dry, they can, he said…

    Q: What’s the long-term fire future look like for Australia?

    A: “The extreme fire season in Australia in 2019 was predicted,” said Australian National University climate scientist Nerilie Abram. “The question that we need to ask is how much worse are we willing to let this get? This is what global warming of just over 1 degree C looks like. Do we really want to see the impacts of 3 degrees or more are like, because that is the trajectory we are on.”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/energy-environment/qanda-how-climate-change-other-factors-stoke-australia-fires/2020/01/02/df951ad0-2dbd-11ea-bffe-020c88b3f120_story.html

    40

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Indigo Jones were predicting the current drought and all farmers who buy their forecasting service were warned to stop spending and prepare for an extended drought .

      20

  • #
    pat

    Updated 3 Jan: SMH: NSW fires LIVE updates: State of emergency declared as South Coast evacuations continue
    By Josh Dye
    7.15am
    Police launch Strike Force Indarra to investigate blazes
    NSW Police has launched an investigation into the recent fires on the state’s South Coast.
    Since late December, numerous bush and grass fires have impacted the region with destructive and fatal fires on Tuesday.
    Local detectives have established Strike Force Indarra to investigate all aspects of the fires. This will include investigating the six fatalities that occurred, the loss of livestock, the properties damaged and destroyed, and the cause of the fires.
    The investigation will be assisted by detectives from the Arson Unit’s Strike Force Tronto, the State Crime Command and from across the Southern Region…
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-fires-live-updates-state-of-emergency-declared-as-south-coast-evacuations-continue-20200103-p53ogt.html

    2 Jan: SMH: ‘Extraordinary circumstances’: Deputy PM flags aid for fire-hit towns
    By Janek Drevikovsky
    Lightning strikes and arson attacks were to blame for some of the blazes and climate change was also an issue the government would “obviously have to address”.
    But the focus should remain on the present, Mr McCormack said…
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/extraordinary-circumstances-deputy-pm-flags-aid-for-fire-hit-towns-20200102-p53of6.html

    3 Jan: ABC: Tasmanian water bombers on standby in case Fingal bushfire spreads to Douglas-Apsley National Park
    By Nicole Price
    The main cause of concern is the 7,000-hectare fire at Fingal in the state’s north-east, which has five watch and act alerts in place. Police believe it was started by arsonists on Monday…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-03/tasmania-bushfires-friday-fire-alerts-fingal-valley-douglas/11838596

    2 Jan: ABC: Bushfires could break containment lines amid extreme heat and strong winds, CFS warns
    Arsonists have also been warned, after a fire which came close to a campground at Rapid Bay earlier this week was declared suspicious (LINK).
    “If anyone out there sees or knows anything I call on them to contact police straight away, it’s stupid and it’s not to be tolerated and we need to act as swiftly as possible when we find these people,” (Emergency Services Minister Corey Wingard) said…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-02/bushfires-could-break-containment-lines-amid-heat-cfs-warns/11837524

    above links to:

    31 Dec: ABC: SA bushfires destroy at least three homes as blaze comes close to campground
    ABC Radio Adelaide
    As South Australian firefighters continue to battle blazes that broke out during catastrophic conditions on Monday, a suspicious grassfire has come close to a popular camping area south of Adelaide.
    The fire, at Second Valley on the Fleurieu Peninsula south of Adelaide, was an unwelcome sight to campers as it burned in hills overlooking the Rapid Bay caravan park…
    The Country Fire Service (CFS) earlier issued a watch and act message, before it was downgraded and police are now the treating the fire as deliberately lit…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-31/properties-and-livestock-lost-following-bushfires-across-sa/11833614

    3 Jan: BallaratCourier: Lexton, Avoca firefighters prepare for hot conditions
    by Ben Hopkins; With Rochelle Kirkham
    With resources stretched so thin, firefighters have voiced their frustration surrounding suspicious fires in high risk areas.
    Firefighters were called to a car fire at Haddon on Wednesday night, located around 30 metres away from a hay shed.
    Station Officer at Lucas Fire Station John Carmody said the car was believed to be stolen and was set alight on the side of the road.
    Firefighters and others who were first on the scene worked to extinguish the fire that had spread into grass beside the car.
    Mr Carmody said people should take responsibility for their own actions as they could be held accountable for starting a fire…
    The maximum penalty for arson causing death in Victoria is 25 years imprisonment. The maximum penalty for intentionally or recklessly causing a bushfire is 15 years imprisonment.
    https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/6564373/we-dont-need-any-more-fires-lexton-avoca-firefighters-prepare-for-hot-conditions/

    40

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      Thanks Pat,
      I hope they include questions of the organisation and synchronisation of any arson attacks as part of their brief.
      Cheers
      Dave B

      00

  • #
    Steve of Cornubia

    First, the climate worriers forecast hotter, dryer weather as a result of ‘climate change’. Then they spotted the value in linking storms to AGW, and realised that rainfall was stubbornly refusing to comply, so they once again did a quick volte face and said we could actually expect MORE rain, not less.

    Now we’re being told this supposedly unprecedented hot & DRY spell is due to AGW.

    Question: “What will the weather be like tomorrow, if AGW is real?”

    Climate Worrier: “Hang on. Let me look at the forecast, then I’ll tell you.”

    80

    • #
      TdeF

      It’s hard to explain the mysterious Federation drought when cars had just been invented. Besides, that was just the weather. Now there is only Climate Change, hot or cold, wet or dry, fire or no fire. Climate Change is irrefutable because it is not defined but the computers are certain it is happening and computers never lie.

      60

  • #
    Zane

    ” Wanted: Coral Measurer. Suit recent graduate, motivated high school leaver, or possibly a working holidaymaker. Own snorkel needed. Travel paid, free scuba refills. Salary $45k. Vacation days per year: 365, depending on weather and underwater visibility. Apply tourist office Cairns or Mackay. Shark insurance advisable. “

    80

    • #
      TdeF

      With the $16Million case spent on administering Malcolm’s 7 tons of gold, you would think someone could afford a snorkel? I’ll bet they are spending the money on trying to work out how to spend the money and get more. It’s more like a private bank than a save the reef fund.

      80

    • #
      Steve of Cornubia

      “Wanted: Coral Measurer. Suit recent graduate, motivated high school leaver, or possibly a working holidaymaker. Familiarity with the equipment used is not necessary because the actual measurements to be used in reports will be pre-loaded into the equipment.”

      40

  • #
    TdeF

    As this would seem a simple, even routine thing to do, I would have to assume they have the samples and the data. So what does that tell you?

    The summers are much cooler in Victoria than any decade in my lifetime. And our heatwaves last a few hours, up to 41 and then straight down to 21C at night. Not that I am complaining, but I remember when a heat wave often lasted 10 days.

    And droughts and flooding rains are part of our climate. And bushfires are part of our ecosystem.

    So what has been done about droughts and flooding rains and bushfires in the last decade? Nothing.

    And what is the expected consequence of a steady rise in CO2? More to burn.

    It’s as if real Science did not exist, even as a concept. Hide the decline, hide the data, hide the cash.

    60

    • #
      Analitik

      Yet the ABC still manages to cherry pick figures to produce headlines for “Highest ever recorded December temperature at ..”

      eg

      Mildura is expected to reach 47C on Friday, which would be the hottest December temperature ever recorded in Victoria, exceeding the 46.6C measured in Robinvale in 1976

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-18/victoria-heatwave-hot-weather-record-temperatures-forecast/11808822

      and

      Victoria’s December record for an individual location was smashed today when it reached 47.9C at Hopetoun Airport and Horsham, well above the old mark of 46.6C set in 1976.

      The ongoing heat saw the national location record for December broken twice within the space of a few hours on Thursday — Eucla in Western Australia reached 49.8C before it was eclipsed by SA’s Nullarbor weather station with 49.9C.

      The old record had been set at Birdsville (49.5C) in 1972.

      Adelaide (45.3C) and Canberra (39.3C) also broke December record temperatures on Thursday that had stood since 1994.

      The SA capital suffered through its hottest December night on record, one of the deadliest parts of a heatwave

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-20/finger-pointed-at-climate-change-as-heatwave-smashes-records/11817884

      10

  • #
    pat

    LOL.

    2 Jan: NatureClimateChange: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale
    Authors:
    Sebastian Sippel, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland;
    Nicolai Meinshausen, Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zurich;
    Erich M. Fischer, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich; Enikő Székely, Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zurich and EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland;
    & Reto Knutti, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
    Abstract
    For generations, climate scientists have educated the public that ‘weather is not climate’, and climate change has been framed as the change in the distribution of weather that slowly emerges from large variability over decades1,2,3,4,5,6,7. However, weather when considered globally is now in uncharted territory. Here we show that on the basis of a single day of globally observed temperature and moisture, we detect the fingerprint of externally driven climate change, and conclude that Earth as a whole is warming.

    Our detection approach invokes statistical learning and climate model simulations to encapsulate the relationship between spatial patterns of daily temperature and humidity, and key climate change metrics such as annual global mean temperature or Earth’s energy imbalance. Observations are projected onto this relationship to detect climate change. The fingerprint of climate change is detected from any single day in the observed global record since early 2012, and since 1999 on the basis of a year of data. Detection is robust even when ignoring the long-term global warming trend…READ ON
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0666-7

    20

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Some Swiss say the funniest things!

      From now on, whenever I see ‘nature.com’, my mind’s eye will read it as ‘newspeak.con’.

      10

  • #
    robert rosicka

    I see Mickey Mann poking a Barb at Scomo for going on holiday while oz was burning because of climate change .
    The ABC would have paid big dollars to get his opinions as he just happens to be in Australia at the moment .

    80

    • #
      Annie

      He’ll need the big bucks if he has eventually to pay damages to Mark Steyn, indirectly funded by, guess who?

      60

    • #
      PeterS

      If Australia is burning because of climate change as the ABC and other lunatics are suggesting then what does they expect Morrison to do about it? Pray to God? So many of them are atheists so forget that option. What else? Rain dance perhaps? How about speak to Trump and Putin. Perhaps they can do something about it. I know! How about defund the ABC and divert the money to help fight the fires.

      70

      • #
        TdeF

        The Federal government is not responsible for any of this. Only three things. Defence, currency/foreign exchange and trade. Everything else is state.

        When Morrison says he will fix burn backs, he is talking only about National Parks. The entire mess is State and Council created, Green hell on Earth created and supported by the ABC. Absolutely Bonkers and Clueless on matters of the weather and bush fires and the environment. Sell the ABC/SBS. They serve only themselves.

        70

        • #
          AndyG55

          Sell the ABC/SBS.

          And put the funds into proper fire management.

          Who could possibly argue with a BILLION dollars a year to control fuel build up. !!

          10

  • #

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