JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Friday Open Thread

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Friday Open Thread, 9.4 out of 10 based on 23 ratings

151 comments to Friday Open Thread

  • #
    hatband

    Just on the subject of Bonobos and their supposed pacific, vegetarian attitude compared to Chimpanzees across the Congo,
    it looks like lying Scientists aren’t restricted to Climate Science, rather lying in the service of Big Business interests comes second nature to the.

    So, yes, the Great Apes are Carnivores, apart fro the Gorilla, which is an Insectivore.

    Needless to say, Man is a Carnivore.

    33

    • #
      el gordo

      Sorry to see you and Leaf having a falling out over something so petty. Apes are omnivores like humans and gorillas are more herbivorous.

      41

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Sorry?

        Not me.

        I love it when the ignorami argue amongst themselves.

        61

        • #
          hatband

          You’ve very clearly taken the side of Gee Aye on this issue,

          now you’re saying he’s an ignoramus?

          10

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Of course we all now know, most animals would last less than a few days without the bacteria which makes up the main genetic content of any mammal/especially mammals. This bacteria is the part that eats things for us so therefore they are responsible for our/and their nutrition in the main. And they also form the most major of our immune system and so on.

        The human genome project gave us the power to explore what was previously hidden, and so now we know, those of us in the know, and can opine confidently that bacteria do all the heavy digestive lifting and therefore, we and the gorillas etc are bacteriavores.

        For example, canines use meat to get the bacteria they need to break down meat and convert it to useful nutrition by digging a hole and putting it in the ground to ferment.

        Bacteriavores. If anyone feels the need to correct my spelling, knock yourself out.

        00

      • #
        hatband

        We were never mates and I never agreed with anything he ever said,

        so how could we have a ”falling out”?

        10

    • #
      AndyG55

      Gorillas eat mainly plants and fruit and other vegetable matter. Some insects.

      https://gorillafacts.org/what-do-gorillas-eat/

      https://youtu.be/Nq2NPHgXAlI

      https://youtu.be/gxgfMRksMio

      They are mostly herbivores.

      61

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        So they eat Greens thus qualifying as omnivores?

        60

        • #
          AndyG55

          Very rarely eat meat. Their whole internals are built around a plant-food diet.

          30

        • #
          MarkMcD

          “So they eat Greens thus qualifying as omnivores?”

          Well that would make ONE use for the Greens if it were true.

          20

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            In a sense, a healthy bacterial profile and even fungi can feed almost any form of life.

            Take the Leaf Cutter Ant. It survives by giving its, in this case fungi, a ready source of green matter that is converted into something the leaf Cutter Ant can use as nutrition..

            So yes, the leaf cutter ant is technically a fungivore.

            00

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              The Leaf Cutter Ant is an excellent example of a fungivore, and is truly marvelous. Gotta say.

              01

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                Notes and errata on Fungivores….from wikipedia…
                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leafcutter_ant

                “Their societies are based on an ant-fungus mutualism, and different species of ants use different species of fungus, but all of the fungi the ants use are members of the family Lepiotaceae. The ants actively cultivate their fungus, feeding it with freshly cut plant material and keeping it free from pests and molds. This mutualistic relationship is further augmented by another symbiotic partner, a bacterium that grows on the ants and secretes chemicals; essentially, the ants use portable antimicrobials. Leaf cutter ants are sensitive enough to adapt to the fungi’s reaction to different plant material, apparently detecting chemical signals from the fungus. If a particular type of leaf is toxic to the fungus, the colony will no longer collect it. The only two other groups of insects to use fungus-based agriculture are ambrosia beetles and termites. The fungus cultivated by the adults is used to feed the ant larvae, and the adult ants feed on leaf sap. The fungus needs the ants to stay alive, and the larvae need the fungus to stay alive, so the mutualism is obligatory.

                The fungi used by the higher attine ants no longer produce spores. These ants fully domesticated their fungal partner 15 million years ago, a process that took 30 million years to complete.[8] Their fungi produce nutritious and swollen hyphal tips (gongylidia) that grow in bundles called staphylae, to specifically feed the ants.[9]

                11

    • #
      Fred Streeter

      My digestive system handles meat, dairy, and vegetables without discomfort, always has done.

      Therefore, I am an omnivore.

      Those who abstain from eating fish, flesh or fowl because “we” are herbivores, “look at our tiny canines”, and those who abstain from eating vegetables because “we” are carnivores, “look, we have canines”, are poseurvores.

      Now some object to the cruelty to animals in the production of meat and/or dairy, and some have problems digesting meat, dairy or veg – fine, not poseurs.

      But humans are best described as omnivores.

      81

      • #
        hatband

        But humans are best described as omnivores.

        Sure, so if you had only 2 minutes to eat a Baked Dinner, you’d eat little bits of Potato, Broccoli, Beans and Squash, because someone says you’re an Omnivore

        Or let’s say you had the choice of either a Fat and Meat Diet, or a Vegetable and Fruit Diet, but not both, you’d choose Vegetables and Fruit, because Man is Omnivorous, right?

        02

        • #
          Fred Streeter

          Let us say that I am ill-mannered enough to guzzle as much of a Baked Dinner as I could in 2 minutes, being an omnivore, I would not have to eat any of the vegetables or have to eat any of the meat. In reality, of course, one can’t help but get meat and veg with every mouthful (Shepherd’s Pie, mmmmm).

          I have eaten in Steak Houses and had a large steak on my plate with no vegetables other than the fermented variety from a bottle.

          I have also eaten in Veggie Restaurants, delicious.

          But the simplest way to maintain a healthy mind and body is to accept the fact that you are an omnivore.

          (Yes, I do know of the various conditions that necessitate dietary restrictions.)

          Or let’s say you had the choice of either your Right Foot, or your Left Foot, but not both, you’d choose your Left Foot, because Man is Bipedal, right?

          Any other nonsense scenarios?

          Humans are omnivores. Thus either of your options would be detrimental to their health.

          01

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          A refined vore would choose bacteriavoreism or fungivoreism. Bacteria and fungi make tastier meals.

          01

    • #

      Truly weird. Make something up and then claim that the facts are actually lies.

      I smell a rat.

      24

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        It’s a big one.

        21

        • #
          farmerbraun

          Where there’s one rat , . . . .
          This one runs away from every argument.
          All hatband, no mettle.

          31

          • #
            hatband

            Kalm Keith has joined yourself and Gee Aye on the Omnivore bandwagon.

            And here you go:

            https://www.vrg. org/nutshell/omni.htm#apes

            The Vegetarian Resource group agrees with the three of you.

            Are you approaching the 97% mark, do you think?

            01

            • #
              AndyG55

              Gorilla’s primary food is plant material

              [Snip personalized insults]

              01

            • #
              AndyG55

              The composition of the gorillas’ diet varies by subspecies and seasonality.

              Western lowland gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla): This subspecies consumes parts of at least 97 plant species. About 67% of their diet is fruit, 17% is leaves, seeds, and stems and 3% is termites and caterpillars.

              Eastern lowland gorilla
              (Gorilla beringei grauen) This subspecies consumes parts of at least 104 plant species.

              Mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringeri) This subspecies consumes at least 142 plant species and only 3 types of fruit. There is hardly any fruit available due to their high altitude. About 86% of their diet is leaves, shoots, and stems, 7% is roots, 3% is flowers, 2% is fruit, and 2% ants, snails, and grubs.

              Cross river gorilla (Gorilla gorilla diehli) This subspecies is not as well studied as the others. However, their diet has been studied through their fecal matter and is known to include fruit, leaves, stems, piths, and some invertebrates.

              Facts.. you have NONE. !

              21

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                Fine..gosh….are there any gorilla that are able to get vodka from their daily food uptake??….bacteriavores rule.

                “Fermented fruit / drunk monkeys
                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpVT1VNo1zk

                02

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                Nutrition is a vast matter…especially when fermented

                00

              • #
                AndyG55

                Yes, the monkeys eat fermented fruit, but its still fruit.

                Gorillas main food is plant matter.

                11

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                it’s still….even a fractional still

                Are you saying monkeys are alcoholic?? and not bacteriorvores??

                01

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                They at least use alcohol as a food in their spare time….

                01

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                Ferment plant matter here and there at least occasionally?

                01

              • #
                AndyG55

                Monkeys, like any other animal, has gut flora.

                That does not define if they are carnivore, herbivores etc etc.

                What they EAT defines that.

                Monkey eat all sorts of things: vegetables, meat, insects, nuts, etc etc

                They are omnivores.

                Gorillas mainly eat plant matter. They are mostly herbivores.

                Lions eat meat… they are carnivores. Just because someone takes a picture of one of them eating a blade of grass, does not make them a vegetarian!

                20

              • #
                AndyG55

                “bacteriorvores??”?????

                That would be some animal that EATS mainly bacteria as its principle source of external food.

                Name one please.

                10

              • #
                AndyG55

                Also, please provide a picture of the next time you sit down to a luscious, delicious meal of bacteria.

                (yogurt, blue cheese not included.)

                Maybe a nice slice of really moldy bread.

                A plate of salmonella, etc etc.

                20

    • #
      sophocles

      Hatband alleges:

      yes, the Great Apes are Carnivores, apart fro the Gorilla, which is an Insectivore.

      Rubbish.
      Then why have they not got carnivore dentition? (dentition = teeth.)

      Why haven’t humans got carnivore dentition? Why are ours omnivore teeth?
      (Our dentition is shrinking because of our habit of cooking food developed over the last 10,000 years + )

      The large primates are omnivorous, and wear omnivorous teeth and house simple omnivore guts.

      Cats are carnivores — check their teeth.
      Dogs are not quite as pure a carnivore as the cat family but neither are they omnivorous — check their teeth.

      Your hypothesis founders on the reef of evolution.

      91

  • #
    • #
      glen Michel

      The paper seems quick to infer correlation between events in the paleo Cambrian “snowball” Earth and a large meteor.Post impact ejection from the site would more likely prolong the existing condition – or one would have thought. We know that correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation don’t we.

      50

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Check the timing.
      Supposedly a billion years or more before the end of “ice ball earth”. And how come it was an ice ball with the CO2 so high then? (Over 100 times higher than the present level).

      40

      • #
        glen Michel

        The Earth changed slowly from cyano-bacteria based life to multi-cellular life brought about by slow infusion,or build up of oxygen.Something like that.

        10

      • #
        Graeme Bird

        We don’t want to assume that the earth was the same size back then, or that it held its same place in the solar system. Our current orbit seems unassailable but that is unlikely to have been the case back when we had those two ice-ball earths.

        00

      • #
        Graeme Bird

        The earth was probably a facsimile of Europa back then. Not only is the earth not static in its mass, but its probably one of the fastest growing bodies, from a proportional point of view, than any other body around. We see the evidence for the new matter creation all around. But we don’t think about it because of the logical contradiction of the conservation laws. Because of the cognitive dictatorship of the conservation laws. Not merely wrong but a logical contradiction. Not only wrong but they CANNOT be right. “Not even wrong.” as the smug phrase would have it.

        00

  • #
    PeterW

    RIP to the three crew members of the Coulson C130 Air Tanker who died , yesterday, when their aircraft crashed while fighting fires east of Canberra.

    Respect these men. There is probably no more dangerous flying environment outside a war zone. They fly low, slow and heavily laden, in high winds and low visibility. This, and the rough terrain, means that they have almost no margin for error and nowhere to land in the event of equipment failure. Yet day after day they saddle up and do it again.

    Those who imagine that ever-increased response to bad fires is a valid alternative to land-management which helps to prevent bad fires, need to consider the people that they are asking to go in harm’s way.

    310

  • #
    el gordo

    Testing my ability to read the political mindset, McCormack will be replaced by Andrew Gee.

    40

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Yep.

      Or Littleproud.

      11

    • #
      scaper...

      Matt Canavan is a real talent and certainly no warmist.

      30

      • #
        bobl

        Matt’s a good choice, not being a hypocrite is a good start.

        20

      • #

        I sent Senator Matt Canavan an email ten days ago.

        I received the usual (and expected) automated response within minutes. I sent it to him, because I understand that some MPs and Senators only reply to those people within their own electorates, and that was actually mentioned in the response, that he would try to reply to all emails from within his own State, Queensland, where I am a resident, as he is a Senator from Queensland. I sent it to him specifically because of this, because had I sent it to Angus Taylor, then I would most probably not get a response as I am not in his electorate.

        However, I was wondering about this.

        Do they access emails sent to their Parliamentary address from their home electorate office, or do they wait to get back to Canberra (in two weeks I think) before looking at their emails, and my guess is that they would get a few of them.

        Second, do their ‘minders’ who look after this Admin hand up ALL emails or just a selection of them that are easily responded to.

        I have this sneaking suspicion that he won’t even see the email at all.

        Tony.

        40

      • #
        el gordo

        Matt Canavan is from the Senate and Andrew Gee is in the House of Reps.

        My money is on Gee.

        00

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Rupert Darwall: Trump draws battle lines against Democrats and ‘prophets of doom’ at Davos

    Trump gave no quarter.
    America was on the threshold of virtually unlimited reserves of energy, he reminded them — and he wasn’t going to give up America’s energy advantage.

    The president rejected what he rightly called the “prophets of doom” and their failed predictions of apocalypse.
    “They are the heirs of yesterday’s foolish fortune-tellers,” he told the Davos crowd, which happens to believe in the prophecies of the current generation of fortune tellers.
    “They want to see us do badly. We won’t let that happen.”

    In selling their party’s soul to the modern environmental movement, Democrats are putting much of their voter base up for grabs.
    Alone among Republicans four years ago, Trump saw the opportunity and seized it. Now he’s moving in for the kill.

    https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/479422-trump-draws-battle-lines-against-democrats-and-prophets-of-doom-at

    Thank you, President Trump.

    170

  • #
    Sambar

    Sadly, we see organisations now employed to manage bush fire donation funds. These funds, donated to help victims today , will apparently be disbursed quite slowly, and not in their entirety. This is why I will NOT donate cash to any disaster. The taking of administration funds as well as the suggestion that funds will be reserved for future disasters is pure P.R. bulls–t. After the black Saturday fires I am lead to believe that funds were also “put aside” for future disasters. Where did those funds go? If memory serves me well, and it may not, I believe that at least some monies were send overseas for relief of an over seas catastrophy. That is not what they were donated for. The money is for AUSTRALIANS and now. We as a nation have always helped out world wide. These bush fire appeals are to help our own, TODAY.

    80

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Sambar:
      After the 1983 bush fires the relief fund ran out of cash. It was alleged that one couple, with political connections, had collected most of the millions with inflated claims e.g. the herd of thoroughbred horses when the former handyman claimed that there had only been one old nag that he’d helped bury months before the fire. Then there were the rare sheep etc. The house was burnt without any trace remaining of the $36,000 worth of flowers inside on the day of the fire. The owners didn’t comment being overseas at the time.

      40

  • #
    el gordo

    The emergence from snowball earth has always been a bit of a mystery, now we know the answer.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/23/new-research-finds-earths-oldest-asteroid-strike-linked-to-big-thaw/

    10

    • #
      glen Michel

      Maybe the great Oxidisation event led to a change in earth atmospheric dynamics that caused snow in the first place. A pale sun would have some effect. THe snowball earth scenario seems to have had a great extent that has not been exceeded. Could not find any convincing argument in the paper,but much conjecture.

      20

      • #
        el gordo

        Not sure what brought on the glaciation so far back in time, but obviously albedo was involved in creating the snowball.

        ‘The snowball Earth hypothesis was originally devised to explain geological evidence for the apparent presence of glaciers at tropical latitudes. According to modelling, an ice–albedo feedback would result in glacial ice rapidly advancing to the equator once the glaciers spread to within 25° to 30° of the equator.’ wiki

        10

  • #
    el gordo

    The Belt and Road strategy.

    ‘Beijing pays massive subsidies for all cargo train routes from China to Europe. That is why train cargo transportation to and from China has grown massively in recent years in various parts of Europe.’ The Diplomat

    40

  • #
  • #
    yarpos

    Quite a piece of hysterical climate alarm on the front page of The Age site today. I think Mathew Knott is taking over from Peter Hannam , or maybe Pete is taking Christmas Hols.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/australia-singled-out-for-climate-denial-at-doomsday-clock-event-20200124-p53uac.html

    22

    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      The UN “prophets of doom” cult have their own doomsday clock?

      And they’re predicting doomsday?

      Oh no!

      Say it aint so!

      40

      • #
        glen Michel

        More alarm and more gullibility. I’m sick of telling people – men mainly, to get a grip on themselves and to stop being milksops. Stop your blubbering fool!

        10

    • #
      DOC

      Interesting how the purveyors of climate doom don’t follow their own theory – at all.
      They give two of the biggest sources of human-sourced CO2 production a free ticket.
      The argument is already made, and one would suggest the purveyors accept it, that neither
      of these nations will restrict themselves after 2030 – for social cohesion they can’t afford to.
      I would suggest Russia also has its own set of fingers to show this mob. Much of its income is
      tied up in exporting its gas to Europe; Europe freezes if it is turned off. Ergo, there is no
      chance of man controlling CO2 and everyone knows it. By extension the purveyors knew from the start
      it was nonsense. They knew they could never control China, India, and Russia. They never wanted to.
      The aim is to take the West. Look at the political ‘wisdom’ of youth throughout the education system.

      The aim was to destroy the advanced West whose people are so naive, believing anything and believing in
      nothing. That’s why science had to be defied and controlled. Demands for ‘proof’ had to be killed off. Didn’t
      they do that well? Hence the disallowance of challenge to the trap. The theory is merely a political minefield
      to take the West. It was/is superbly contructed. So much money flowing, even many scientists kneel before its altar.
      Organisations like the WWL assoc. and a million others with minimal science and plenty of exaggeration and lies
      over-performed.

      On the strength of reality therefore, the manipulators show themselves to be lying hypocrits, but
      worse they reveal there is a huge political grab for power behind their attacks on only the West.
      One has to wonder at the total lack of prophecy by the West – people and politicians – that nobody
      foresees their own nation’s economic destruction. Are so many of our politicians so scientifically
      illiterate, or disinterested, or globalists such that they see a rosy future for their post
      political careers in a universal governing body along the same lines as the totally undemocratic
      EU Commission?

      The attacks on Australia, lies, as ‘not doing its bit’ means nothing as basic as following
      their theory and rules will ever be enough. It says they seek power and will stop at nothing to
      achieve it. The world of the left – media, business, billionaires feeding off the theory of CO2, and most
      politicians – hate Trump. Australia is small bickies, but they cannot fight Trump and he is giving them
      hell. That’s why the Democrats detest him to the point of insanity. He stopped their run just when they
      thought the race was won. Just look at the policies of their candidates; totally economically destructive
      and deeply socialist. That’s why Biden keeps in the frame; most democrat Americans know he is the least threat.

      If Trump had lost that last election, the USA would by now be a nation in freefall under Hilary. This overthrow
      of Trump has nothing to do with principle, truth nor good governance. The Democrat left has done nothing
      for the nation but spend 4years seeking to find anything with which to impeach Trump and take back the course to marxism.
      It is to be hoped Trump prevails at the next election. That should destroy this climate trap to all our futures.

      40

  • #
    Peter

    Why are renewables called renewables? What is renewed? Are wind mills and solar panels and all the extra poles and wires needed included in their contribution to extra co2. Shouldn’t the manufacture and quantities needed of these forms of power be added to a country’s co2 emissions.

    140

    • #

      Great question, worth looking into. They should be called Intermittents.

      70

    • #
      yarpos

      The wind and sun are free , dont you know?

      They are assumed to always be present, which of course they are not.

      Coal, oil, gas are considered finite, can be used but once , not repeatedly and infinitely like “renewables”

      They turn a blind eye to the real requirement and costs of renewables, its all about the look and the virtue after all. They also gloss over the short like of the generators and show no concern for finite resources for their continuous replacement. And lets not even discuss child labour in mines…

      20

    • #
      Chad

      Why are renewables called renewables? What is renewed?

      Factual answer is the raw energy source is seen as being “renewable”…or effectively. “Limitless”
      Some of whic is not necessarily true for sources such as Hydro and biomass burning , which are currently considered RE sources
      But as we well know, that is not the most important od factors in energy supply..
      Continuity, predictability and reliability are much more useful on a practical basis..
      And yes, the manufacture , construction and operation of many of these RE systems , are far from emissions free.

      20

      • #
        AndyG55

        “Hydro and biomass burning , which are currently considered RE sources”

        Only way they can get the overall percentage passed single digits. !

        10

    • #
      Graeme Bird

      Yes its definitely a misnomer. They all come from coal. And the renewables start degrading from the day they are installed. I think some renewables have some valid niche uses. Just so long as they don’t form part of the grid.

      00

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Get outta the greenhouse and into the hot house …

    Whacky Will Steffen, one of yesterday’s foolish fortune tellers, explains;

    “These tipping points do not act independently of one another.

    Like a row of dominoes, tipping one could help trigger another, and so on to form a tipping cascade.

    The system could move to a “Hothouse Earth” state, irrespective of human actions to stop it.

    Hothouse Earth temperatures would be much higher than in the pre-industrial era – perhaps 5–6℃ higher.”

    https://theconversation.com/scientists-hate-to-say-i-told-you-so-but-australia-you-were-warned-130211

    Sounds scary, Will.

    PS: Man fined for dud doomsday warning

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/man-fined-for-dud-doomsday-warning/story-fn6ck55c-1226080950490

    40

    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      Will Steffen says “I told you so”, but fails to give an example of himself warning of current bushfires 30 years ago.

      “Those who say “I told you so” are rarely welcomed, yet I am going to say it here.
      Australian scientists warned the country could face a [global warming]-driven bushfire crisis by 2020.
      “I am an Earth System scientist, and for 30 years have studied how humans are changing the way our planet functions.”

      https://theconversation.com/scientists-hate-to-say-i-told-you-so-but-australia-you-were-warned-130211

      Perhaps I can help Will remember what was said then.

      1986: Here is Dr Brian Tucker, chief of CSIRO’s Division of Atmospheric Research;

      “… the atmosphere were rising and would lead to the so-called “greenhouse effect”, lifting average temperatures by as much as 3 degrees in the next two decades
      https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/118126098

      >>How’s that 3 degrees looking, Will?

      Whacky Will: “All these impacts have occurred under a rise of about 1℃ in global average temperature.
      Yet the world is on a pathway towards 3℃ of heating, bringing a future that is almost unimaginable.”

      Lol. Unimaginable. By the end of the century.

      Goal post >>> move.

      60

      • #
        AndyG55

        I can almost guarantee that we will have further very hazardous bushfires at some time in the next 20-30 years, no matter what the global temperature does.

        See, one doesn’t have to be a rabid “global warming™” fortune-teller to make simple predictions.

        Will Steffen is on a flooded greenie brick road, using mud colored glasses..

        and can see nothing real..

        … just his chicken-little imagination.

        31

        • #
          bobl

          The fact that the Ipswich climate conversation proves that Will Steffen can’t add, subtract, multiply or divide to save his life.

          At that meeting he said 6 degrees by end of century and 3 degrees per doubling which were two answers totally inconsistent with each other given doubling isn’t due till after the end of the century.

          Math challenged is Will Steffen.

          30

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            I think most gullible greenies are arithmetically challenged.

            They try to prove how cheap renewables are by quoting low prices for electricity when there is a glut, and claim that storage would solve their intermittent nature (without adding the cost of storage to the favourable figure they dreamt u).

            10

  • #

    May do an article so doing some digging on Davos and the WEF, starting with their Risk Report:
    http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf

    Upfront graphics tell interesting story. Figure IV says central risk is Climate Action Failure. For the whole world economy! So definitely Action Now! radical types. No wonder Greta gets at least three speaking spots in Davos.

    But close by and also big is Global Governance Failure! Governance by whom one asks? The UN? Or perhaps the WEF.

    These are definitely lefties of a pretty extreme sort. Their central goal is climate action through global governance.

    Woohoo!

    30

    • #
      disorganise

      Someone linked a Greta speech at Davos in Facebook, and it continued for 20 mins with reps from China etc. Within the first few sentences Greta said that the destruction of the Amazon continues at an infinitely accelerating rate – which I guess means it’s completely disappeared already, though it’s odd it isn’t reported.

      I found it rather annoying that one of the backdrop pics was of the Australian bush fires – that photo of the kangaroo in front of all the flames, therefore linking the fires with climate change.

      It was interesting that China confirmed that between 2000 – 2011 they tripled their coal consumption and expected to double it again before 2040. Apparently in the last 7 years their consumption has hardly increased, in part due to their cleaner air policy.

      I found a link to the full version on youtube; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzBrDGg4HJY
      The poll was interesting; it was overwhelmingly a government problem to fix. I’ve always figured that ‘if you aren’t part of the solution, you’re part of the problem’ so it is rather surprising to find the audience wanting to push the responsibility elsewhere.

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    pat

    Red Cross has already been mentioned. lots of angst among the public, but theirABC – from what I’ve heard – have been claiming it’s the politicians piling on – and who are they to talk. Philip Clark’s Issue of the Day on ABC Nightlife took this line last nite as well. another example:

    24 Jan: ABC: Bushfire anger intensifies as NSW Ministers claim charities stockpiling cash meant for victims
    By Jessica Kidd
    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/bushfire-aid-row-continues-as-red-cross-attacked-again/11892062?pfmredir=sm

    what is not being mentioned by ABC:

    7 Jan: TV BlackBox: ABC Fireworks Coverage Raises $13 Million for Red Cross Bushfire Appeal
    Media release
    The New Year’s Eve donation drive by the ABC, Red Cross and City of Sydney will fund disaster relief and recovery programs, including support for people at evacuation centres and cash grants for those who have lost homes in the bushfires…
    The Red Cross Disaster Relief and Recovery Fund remains open and donations can still be made at any time via redcross.org.au. The overall amount raised by the fund since New Year’s Eve, including the ABC donation drive, is more than $23 million.

    Judith Whelan, ABC Director of Regional & Local, said:
    “Thank you to everyone who gave generously to help communities affected by the bushfire crisis. The scale and severity of the disaster is overwhelming and your donations will bring support and solace to Australians at a time of great need. Thank you also to the Red Cross and the emergency services teams, volunteers and organisations who are helping to keep people safe and well during this long and fierce fire season.”…

    Noel Clement, Red Cross Acting Chief Executive, said:
    “The funds raised mean we can ramp up our response and recovery work and expand our emergency grants. This fund has already helped us support people at evacuation centres, recovery hubs and over the phone when disasters strike. It’s now providing cash grants to people who have lost their homes in the recent bushfires, so they can meet everyday expenses. It helps our emergency volunteers get to disaster-affected areas, covers their expenses and funds equipment and training. It means we can be there whenever a disaster strikes and stay afterwards to help people and communities recover.”

    Clover Moore, Sydney Lord Mayor, said:
    “We did not make the decision to go ahead with the New Year’s Eve display lightly and those suffering from the impacts of the bushfires were front of mind through the event. Reminders to donate to the bushfire appeal and tributes to our brave firefighters were projected onto the Harbour Bridge pylons and broadcast throughout the ABC’s sensitive live coverage. Thank you to everyone who gave so generously, these donations ensure the Red Cross can support communities in the wake of bushfire disasters.”

    The ABC launched the donation drive during its New Year’s Eve live broadcast, which reached 3.5 million viewers. The ABC was the nation’s leading network on the night, with a five-city metro prime-time share of 26.3% (up from 22% in 2018).
    https://tvblackbox.com.au/page/2020/1/7/abc-fireworks-coverage-raises-23-million-for-red-cross-bushfire-appeal

    29 Dec 2019: SBS: Sydney New Year’s Eve show to welcome refugees with ‘unity’ theme
    With a theme of “unity”, 2020 has been declared the “year of welcome” by organisers of this year’s New Year’s Eve fireworks.
    by Cassandra Bain
    But it’ll be more than just pretty lights, with the City of Sydney announcing the Refugee Council of Australia as its new official charity partner for the event…

    Today, the Lord Mayor Clover Moore refused to cancel the fireworks and instead pledged to use New Year’s Eve to help raise money for drought and fire victims.
    “We’re harnessing the enormous power of this great event to raise more money for the Australian Red Cross’ Disaster Relief and Recovery Fund,” Ms Moore said.
    “We encourage all people to visit our city on New Year’s Eve and those watching at home to donate to this fund via our online fundraiser.”…
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/sydney-new-year-s-eve-show-to-welcome-refugees-with-unity-theme

    1 Jan 2020: Mirage News: Sydney celebrates dawn of a new decade
    Public Release
    Those watching around the harbour or the ABC broadcast were reminded to donate to the Red Cross disaster relief and recovery fund in response to the bushfires, with a donation link projected onto the Sydney Harbour Bridge pylons throughout the night…
    Projections also featured the official New Year’s Eve charity partner, the Refugee Council of Australia, reminding people to make 2020 a year of welcome to refugees…

    “Reminders to donate to the bushfire appeal and tributes to our brave firefighters were projected onto the Harbour Bridge pylons and broadcast throughout the ABC’s live event coverage,” the Lord Mayor said…

    New Year’s Eve 2019 was also the greenest event to date, with City sites and operations using 100 per cent accredited GreenPower.
    The City purchased GreenPower certificates to the equivalent of our energy use. These covered 10 sites across the city, including Bicentennial and Pirrama parks and the Sydney Harbour Bridge.
    The certificates will support the production of renewable energy at Sapphire Wind Farm in northern NSW.
    https://www.miragenews.com/sydney-celebrates-dawn-of-a-new-decade/

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    • #
      pat

      follow-up. have heard some members of the public question Red Cross responses to earlier natural disasters in Australia, but I can’t speak to that.
      however, the reputation of the American Red Cross has been in tatters for decades, and surely ABC knows that. examples from the now CAGW-infested media:

      3 Oct 2017: Vox: “We shouldn’t reflexively send $10 to the Red Cross”
      A veteran reporter on why you shouldn’t give money to the Red Cross after a disaster.
      By Sean Illing
      [Editor’s note: After this story was first published, ProPublica obtained emails from emergency management officials in Texas criticizing the Red Cross for its response to Hurricane Harvey, alleging that the relief group had failed to communicate well with local officials, not delivered promised supplies and resources, and been understaffed and underprepared when they arrived in the state.]

      The easiest thing to do after a disaster strikes is to make a quick donation to the Red Cross…
      But in an article last week for Slate, journalist Jonathan Katz urged readers to stop doing that. Katz, who was the Associated Press’s bureau chief in Haiti during the 2010 earthquake (and later wrote a book about it), argued that the Red Cross “has proven itself unequal to the task of massive disaster relief.”…

      The problem, as Katz sees it, is that the Red Cross is a dysfunctional organization that excels at raising money but has shown little evidence of its ability to spend that money wisely or meaningfully. The Red Cross takes in close to 3 billion annually, refuses to open its books to the public, and, according to Katz, has consistently failed to produce a useful breakdown of its spending after major disaster efforts…

      The Red Cross isn’t a development organization — they don’t rebuild schools or hospitals or infrastructure. They provide short-term relief — cots for people to sleep on, blankets to keep them warm, hygiene kits, etc. This kind of work is important, Katz says, but it doesn’t justify the enormous sums of money the Red Cross solicits from the public…

      I reached out to Katz and asked him why we should be more skeptical about the Red Cross, why the model of disaster relief they represent is broken, and what individual citizens can do if they really want to help…

      Shortly after this piece was published, the Red Cross responded with a statement that said, in part, that it had received “the highest ratings for accountability and transparency from independent non-profit watchdogs like Charity Navigator and the BBB Wise Giving Alliance.” The organization added that “Disasters by their nature are chaotic, and that means there always will be problems and some things that go wrong. That’s the reality in a disaster zone — not failure.” Their full response is below.

      My conversation with Katz, lightly edited for clarity, follows…READ ON
      https://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/9/6/16255044/red-cross-houston-hurricane-harvey-irma-interview

      25 May 2011: HuffPo: The Red Cross Coming Home to Roost: Remember 9/11, Anyone?
      By Richard Walden, President, Operation USA
      The Red Cross responded to 9/11 by opening a few shelters to which no one came; tried to trace missing persons but were pushed aside when the World Trade Center site was dubbed a crime scene and police and FBI took over identification of missing persons; and, served coffee and donuts to rescue workers at the World Trade Center site only to be accused of charging for them. (It later paid Daniel Bouley, New York’s star chef, to cook for them after the news about charging for coffee was made public.)…

      Jogging your memory a bit — Red Cross was the flavor of the month following 9/11. Celebrities, corporations and foundations wrote million-dollar checks and performed or sponsored TV and live events ad infinitum; ad campaigns were rewritten as Red Cross appeals; media outlets pushed their name across the airwaves and online…READ ON
      https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-red-cross-coming-home_b_7653

      21 Jun 2016: ProPublica: We Want You to Help Report on the Red Cross
      Introducing the Red Cross Reporting Network.
      by Justin Elliott and Eric Umansky
      Along with our colleagues at NPR, ProPublica has been reporting on the American Red Cross for the past two years. We’ve detailed how the charity failed to deliver promised relief following Superstorm Sandy in 2012, the Haiti earthquake in 2010, and even more modest disasters like last year’s fires in California and the recent flooding in Mississippi…
      https://www.propublica.org/article/introducing-the-red-cross-reporting-network

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        Kalm Keith

        It seems that the red cross gets a red cross.

        High “admin” costs of registered charities have been a known issue, i.e. a serious issue for a couple of decades.

        Government failure to examine the operations of these organisations is the encouraging factor.

        True charities will have minimum overheads and provide recognizable benefit and support in times of need: and document it clearly for tax records.
        Any organisation with high “overheads” is obviously not a charity and must be taxed.

        The tax free status of organizations like GetUp seem to invite more scrutiny than is being given.

        The tax office should operate without fear or favour: but it doesn’t.

        Does that mean it is subject to political interference?

        KK

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    Peter C

    The Victorian Liberal Leader wants to join the Climate Alarmists and lock in carbon reductions in the near future..

    I sent him an email of protest:

    Caving in to Climate Alarmists:
    Michael O’Brien MP
    Leader Victorian Liberals

    Dear Michael,

    It was very disappointing to me that you joined the chorus for CO2 emissions reduction in Victoria.

    “Victoria’s leader of the opposition Michael O’Brien, has called on the federal Coalition government to raise the bar on climate policy, after announcing his own Liberal Party’s support of the need for state emissions reductions.”
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/victorian-liberals-change-tack-and-push-for-long-term-federal-emissions-targets-24240

    What is needed is an alternative political narrative which clearly distinguishes the Liberal Party from all the rest. People need an alternative. How else can they show their support for sensible policies (if every party promotes the same message)?

    Scott Morrison has been quite measured in his response. He avoids direct endorsement of CO2 Global Warming and talks about real measures for bushfire hazard reduction. I think that your statement helps undermine him.

    Carbon Pollution is appalling tosh. If you are not sure about that please read the publications from the IPA (Climate Change the Facts, 1 and 2).

    If you actually believe the Greta Climate Change story then I am not sure if I can continue to support the Victorian Liberal Party,.

    Yours Sincerely

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    • #

      What is the IPA? Link to those two docs?

      Sounds interesting.

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      • #
        Peter C

        Thanks David,

        The IPA is the Institute of Public Affairs. It is described as a Conservative Think Tank. It is a private organisation Australia with about 4000 members. It seeks to influence the political debate, promoting individual freedom and responsibility, freedom of expression, free markets, smaller government etc. The IPA sponsors overseas speakers to Australia and participates in news paper and television discussions as well as publishing quite a few titles. A recent program seeks to promote discussion of its principles in Australian Universities.

        The two books on Climate Change feature chapters, each written by different authors. Professor Peter Ridd published a chapter in Climate Change- The facts (2017). He explained his reservations about the quality of the Great Barrier reef science coming from his own University, which lead to him being cautioned. He was sacked when he repeated his views on Alan Jones Radio program.

        https://ipa.org.au/publications-ipa/books/climate-change-facts-2014
        https://ipa.org.au/publications-ipa/books/climate-change-facts-2017-ebook-now-sale

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  • #

    Some of you have already noticed the new AEMO NEM website update.

    I’m still working my way through it, but they have included so much more.

    For those of you who are interested, it’s worth taking the time to work you way through it, and for those of you who have any questions, I’ll try and sort them out for you.

    Things that I notice that are easy to see for me I just ‘see’ them at first sight, but to the untrained eye, they might seem puzzling, so I’m relying on those people to point things out that need explanation.

    However, I will show you all one thing right away.

    Take this link to the home page

    Along the top, alongside the small map icon there, hover your mouse on the title ‘Energy Systems’, and when the drop down menu appears, move your mose and click on the top left heading National Electricity Market (NEM)

    When that page opens, scroll down a little, and then click on Data Dashboard

    The default page is the ‘old’ Dispatch Overview, listing the current totals for all five States, and the circles between them indicate the Interconnectors, showing their current power diversion , and when you hover the mouse over each circle, it shows the max/min under it and the total inside each circle.

    Along that Dispatch Overview line, the next tab shows the Price and Demand, the Load curves for each State and the default is the current 30Min total, and the 5Min tab (upper right) shows the last two days in 5 Min increments

    Now, of main interest, and the thing I really wanted to show you was that next tab along on the Dispatch Overview line, and the title is Fuel Mix. Click on that.

    It shows the fuel mix for each State by breakdown of sources.

    You can also isolate that fuel mix to current, and five other times out to 12 Months. (tab drop down upper right)

    NOTE here very specifically that rooftop solar power is not included. Keep in mind here that this is the MAIN, the only Energy Regulator, and they do not include Rooftop solar. All those other sites which do include it do it as a calculated guess only as it is, ALL OF IT ….. behind the meter, and what that means is that the AEMO only includes power generation that is being fed to all other consumers, the main and only regulated distribution of power.

    You can do this Fuel Mix on a State by State basis, and they also include the NEM as a whole and that is interesting. Add together both black and brown coal for the last 12 Months. (74%)

    You can work your way around yourself, but this new site shows so much more.

    Any questions and I’ll work them out.

    Tony.

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    sophocles

    I’ve posted this before but I will offer no apologies for it — I’ve `resurrected’ it to allow it’s efficacy to be examined afresh. The warmists who actually have memories of the decades which have elapsed since Dansgaard developed his ice-core knowledge and techniques over the 1960′s, are welcome to compare it with what they have remembered. I think it particularly accurate but your mileage may vary.

    In 1969-70, [Willi] Dansgaard and his colleagues announced their
    conclusions from the study of the Camp Century ice `coures’. In
    the first place they were able to confirm the climatic history
    of the last ice age and its aftermath that had been deduced
    earlier by other methods, including atomic measurements in
    sea-bed sediments as well as geological and archaeological
    research on land. A parallel investigation of ice, this time
    from Antarctica, done by Samuel Epstein af the California
    Institute of Technology, showed that major climate events in
    the southern hemisphere closely matched those in the north.

    Not content with confirming the past changes of climate,
    Dansgaard offers a forecast for the future. He bases it on
    repeating cycles of solar change that he thinks fit closely
    with the ice-records of the past — in fact the combined effects of two
    dominant cycles, one giving peaks of warmth every 78 years and
    the other peaks every 181 years. Each of these cycles, Dansgaard
    believes, represents a regular variation in the Sun which
    affects its output of energy. Therefore he ventures to let the
    cycles run on a little way into the decades ahead.

    Here is Dansgaard’s ultra-long-range weather forecast:
    the climate will continue to grow colder during the 1970s and early
    1980s; then it will become gradually warmer again so that by 2015 we
    shall be back to where we were in 1960 — no better; and after that it
    will start becoming colder again. In short, the outlook for the next
    fifty years will be decidedly chilly.

    ===============================
    CALDER, Nigel, 1972: “The Restless Earth. A report on the new geology.” p 127.
    The British Broadcasting Corporation. ISBN 0 563 121238.

    It’s certainly been far more accurate than anything from the notorious Computer Models.In fact it’s been so very accurate. You will notice that it makes no reference at all to
    Greenhouse Gases. It doesn’t even mention CO2 because it doesn’t need to. The Atmospheric volume of CO2 has continued to rise and is now c. 410 ppmv, an increase of 46% over the supposed starting concentration of 280ppmv. Temperature increase alleged/asserted to be due to the increases of that trace gas have been less than 1°C — with no increase at all from 1997 to 2015 (The Hiatus or Pause) – two large El Nino events. In fact, Dr Phil Jones pointed out a small cooling over those years in a 2008 interview (re-discovered and requoted here by Pat). Dr Jones hastily added that “ … it’s not statistically significant.

    The warming which can be attributed to that increase is less than 1°C. The atmospheric temperature is now cooling according to one of the world’s least corrupted databases. Yes cooling, despite the best (or worst) efforts of NASA-GISS’s head and NOAA’s cohorts to repeatedly cool the recent past — the 1930s.
    [https://notrickszone.com/2020/01/20/north-atlantic-sea-levels-have-been-falling-at-a-rate-of-7-1-mm-yr-since-2004-in-tandem-with-2c-cooling/ ]

    This renders all the `emissions reductions‘ of `Greenhouse Gases’ a farce. We should all abandon the Paris Accord — it’s pointless. All declared `Climate Crises’ are also farces and should be dropped. The only thing they will achieve is to comfort True Believers. The `Greening of the World’ is a positive good. The incoming cooling is going to need some compensation to maintain our food supplies. It’s safe to burn coal, and oil and oil products. The cooling is just starting.
    Sea-levels are also falling slightly — which explains the Obama purchase of a sea-side mansion in Martha’s Vineyard.

    It’s the Sun Stupid …

    Dansgaard used two solar cycles for his conclusions: the Gleissberg and the De Vries.

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    • #
      sophocles

      Martha’s Vineyard, Seaside? Umm. No. Lakeside.

      But with the increasing winter snow cap on that area of the US and Canada, inundation by Lake-Level Rise could be a very real risk. :-D
      We can watch.

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    • #
      Speedy

      And that was written in 1972? Prophetic… And on the BBC??? Ye gods!
      Thanks Sophocles
      Mike

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      Serp

      Grateful for the repeat issue; no apology necessary.

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    Maptram

    We are told, presumably by the same people who blame climate change for the bushfires, is that the bushfires have killed a billion or more wildlife (animals, birds, reptiles, insects etc). What they don’t say is that probably 90% of those are insects and most of them would have died by other means, such as being eaten by predators. What they also don’t say is that the wildlife that survived, in particular the predators, would receive the same benefit that our ancestors first got a few million years ago, that meat is easier to catch and tastier when it’s cooked.

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    • #
      pat

      Maptram -

      the figure went up to 1.25 billion…and does not even include insects. it’s all made up.
      ***note “impacted”:

      Update 8 January 2020 (LINK): Professor Christopher Dickman revised his estimate of the number of animals killed in bushfires in NSW to more than 800 million animals, and more than one billion animals ***impacted nationally.
      This figure is based on a 2007 report for the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) on the impacts of land clearing on Australian wildlife in New South Wales (NSW)…
      https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/01/03/a-statement-about-the-480-million-animals-killed-in-nsw-bushfire.html

      7 Jan: WWF: Statement from WWF-Australia on Australia’s bushfire emergency
      Statement from WWF-Australia CEO, Dermot O’Gorman
      WWF-Australia estimates around ***1.25 billion animals ***may have been killed directly or indirectly from fires that have burnt 8.4 million hectares across Australia (equivalent to the whole of country of Austria).
      These figures have been calculated using methodology that estimates the impacts of landclearing on Australian wildlife and extrapolates upon the science of ***Prof Chris Dickman from The University of Sydney (LINK)…
      https://www.wwf.org.au/news/news/2020/statement-from-wwf-australia-on-australia-s-bushfire-emergency#gs.tch15o

      AUDIO: 4m11s: 7 Jan: KOSU (NPR Public Radio): 1 billion animals have died in Australian bushfires, ecologist estimates
      By The World staff
      The University of Sydney ecologist Chris Dickman stunned people recently with his estimate that 480 million animals have been injured or killed in Australia’s bushfires. A few weeks later, the fires have spread even farther, and he’s updated the impact to include 1 billion animals.
      “The 480 million estimate was made a couple of weeks ago, and the fires have now burnt over a large area of the further country. That means over 800 million mammals, birds and reptiles have been affected by the fires. Australiawide, it’s probably over a billion,” Dickman said…

      Q: How have human beings helped create the conditions for this crisis?

      Dickman: What we’re seeing is the effects of climate change. Sometimes, it’s said too that Australia is the canary in the coal mine with the effects of climate change being seen here most severely and earliest, as well. We’re probably looking at what climate change may look like for other parts of the world in the first stages in Australia at the moment…
      I think there is a feeling among environmental scientists and ecologists in Australia that we’ve been frozen out of the debate, certainly out of policymaking. I think it’s now time to bring the scientists back into the tent to look at what is likely to be happening over the next few decades and to think about how we can maintain both the human community in good health and as much biodiversity as can be retained under this evolving situation.
      https://www.kosu.org/post/1-billion-animals-have-died-australian-bushfires-ecologist-estimates

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      • #

        I saw this figure of ….. one BILLION killed in the bushfires, and wondered to myself.

        The TOTAL population of the most populous animal in Australia is kangaroos, and ALL of them only add up to (around) 50 million, and at a recent count, it was ‘estimated’ there are 44 million.

        So here we have bushfires killing TWENTY times EVERY roo in the Country, and just in NSW evidently.

        There’s no way known that figure could be a billion, or now scaled up to 1.25 billion.

        Tony.

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      • #
        Graeme No.3

        It’s obvious. Those dead animals are reproducing.

        Or see comments above about maths challenged greenies.

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    sophocles

    I have also mentioned CIMP6 as the new paradigm for climate modelling. Here’s what CIMP6 is all about, as it tries to correct the earlier models.

    https://solarisheppa.geomar.de (in English)
    https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/2247/2017/

    All earlier models up to and including CIMP5 are a waste of time and computer/intellectual resources. Results from them should be routinely ignored. (Pay attention to this Mr Fitzroy!)
    It’s going to be interesting to see how good CIMP6 is (or isn’t :-D ).
    Bear in mind it’s a `First Cut’ and will see continuing development for a while. But, hey! I’m an optimist.
    And we will have better tools to compare David’s (Evans) work with. (This blog has collected some very interesting David’s and may this trend continue :-D )

    I’ve just finished reading a good book: a fraternal Christmas present:

    STUART COLIN: `Rebel Star, Our Quest to Solve the Great Mysteries of the Sun’; 2019, Michael O’Mara Books Lid; London
    ISBN: 978-1-78929-043-1 (hardback) & 978-1-78929-045-5 (ebook)

    It’s aimed very much at the lay reader; the author is not a Solar physicist despite consulting closely with them. It is about how and when most of what we know about the sun was discovered, and by whom. If you choose to read it, I hope your enjoyment is as high as mine was.

    I found it very interesting, and can recommend it, but, of course, YMMV.

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    • #
      sophocles

      Minor correction:

      STUART, Colin; as in Colin STUART is the author. My apologies. In formal paper, book etc author names, I always quote surname or family name first, so it should be punctuated to avoid confusion. I forgot and didn’t!

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    robert rosicka

    Just listening to ABC radio the conversation hour and they were interviewing a farmer Chris Nixon from I think Gippsland and they asked him if the fires were unprecedented.
    Well I don’t think they knew what hit them with the spray he gave about every fire that was bigger in the past .
    He then went on to say that because of the high fuel loads there were a lot more areas burnt and maybe even lives lost .
    He then started on Daniel Andrews (the government) about them being negligent in not clearing the forests with prescribed burning and said if he was to do something on his property that led to someone’s death he would be charged and he said so should the government.
    He also said they were warned about high fuel loads and did nothing .

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    • #
      pat

      robert rosicka -

      no need to locate this on the audio, because it’s just a minute.
      however, theirABC sure loves to mock “hazard reduction”, every time. how bizarre! where is management?

      1h46m59s to 1h48m06s: What the papers say: Matt Bungard, Sydney Morning Herald re story on Nationals admission “climate change” played a part in the bushfires, but vital factor/central focus for them is hazard reduction, rather than to address the impact of climate change.
      Bungard, mockingly: wonder why?
      ABC’s Philip Clark, mockingly: yes, wonder why?

      AUDIO: 3h54m59s: 23 Jan: ABC Nightlife with Philip Clark
      https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/nightlife/nightlife/11875214

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    Sweet Old Bob

    And now Accuweather frets that funnelweb spiders are going to increase in numbers …
    guess they are flame resistant ? ;)

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    Rocket Rod

    Onto a social topic. Cars.

    Anyone noticed over the past few years that there is a huge uptick in the number of cars that look like they’ve been in a acid-throwing contest?
    Bonnets, roofs, boots with severe rust, paint largely gone.

    I’d put it down to the nomophobe plague.
    No-one can spend 1/2 hour a YEAR to put their dumbphones down and wash their damn cars !
    If the car is a reflection of your life then these people are in serious dog-doo.

    Little wonder they are incapable of critical thinking and oblivious to most things of any importance anywhere.
    Jump on the brainless bandwagon of a popular ‘cult’ and that’s their intellectual limit.
    Heaven forbid having to read more than a paragraph or have an attention span exceeding 10 minutes.
    I could watch The Bridge on the River Kwai without getting up once.

    Sad what the future holds for the next generation.

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    Zane

    Same old story. In a couple of years everyone will be crowing about how wonderfully the burnt out forest is regenerating. Naturally this will lead to heavy new foliage and dense undergrowth ten years down the track, meaning big fuel loads. A fire starts and the whole thing burns again. Media howls ” unprecedented “. Greens howl ” climate change “. States blame Canberra. Rinse, repeat, lather, soak, and wash. Then spin.

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    peter

    The link ” climate change has made no difference to rainfall or droughts” does not work”. Why?

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    peter

    The link ” climate change has made no difference to rainfall or droughts” does not work”. Why?

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    pat

    biggest story in the US. doubt it will get covered here. theirABC audience, in particular, wouldn’t even understand it, as they have been so misinformed:

    24 Jan: Yahoo: FISA Court Confirms Two Carter Page Surveillance Applications ‘Not Valid’
    by Tobias Hoonhout, National Review
    A FISA Court order declassified Thursday confirmed that the government had found two of the four FISA applications authorized for the FBI to surveil 2016 Trump-campaign adviser Carter Page to be “not valid,” and ***will further investigate the validity of the other two.

    The order revealed that the government found two of the surveillance application renewals to be “not valid” based on “the material misstatements and omission” used by the FBI, which was found by the Justice Department to have “insufficient predication to establish probable cause to believe that Page was acting as an agent of a foreign power.”

    Based on the ordering of the applications, it appears the review found the second and third renewal applications used against Page to be invalid, while the original application and the first renewal remain under investigation. The third renewal was personally signed by James Comey, while the fourth was signed by Andrew McCabe.

    The court also said it was still waiting on the Bureau after it “agreed ‘to sequester all collection the FBI acquired pursuant to the Court’s authorizations’” against Page, but so far has not provided an update…

    DOJ inspector general Michael Horowitz revealed “at least 17 significant errors or omissions” committed by the FBI in his report on the Bureau’s “Crossfire Hurricane” investigation into the 2016 Trump campaign, but did not come up with any ***“documentary evidence” that the probe was predicated by political bias.
    Among the more egregious violations detailed in the report was the revelation that a top FBI national security lawyer doctored an email for Page’s fourth application to conceal that Page served as a source for the CIA.

    The FISC slammed the FBI in a rare public statement last month following Horowitz’s report.
    “The frequency with which representations made by FBI personnel turned out to be unsupported or contradicted by information in their possession, and with which they withheld information detrimental to their case, calls into question whether information contained in other FBI applications is reliable,” the court wrote.
    https://news.yahoo.com/fisa-court-confirms-two-carter-204011638.html

    compare the above with the obfuscation of this ABC America/CNN version!

    23 ABC17 America: CNN: Two of four FISA warrants against Carter Page declared invalid
    https://abc17news.com/news/politics/national-politics/2020/01/23/two-of-four-fisa-warrants-against-carter-page-declared-invalid/

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    pat

    biggest news in the US yesterday. theirABC audience wouldn’t have a clue what it meant:

    first, this is Ken Vogel back in Jan 2017:

    11 Jan 2017: Politico: Presidential Transition: Ukrainian efforts to sabotage Trump backfire
    Kiev officials are scrambling to make amends with the president-elect after quietly working to boost Clinton.
    By ***KENNETH P. VOGEL and DAVID STERN
    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/ukraine-sabotage-trump-backfire-233446

    23 Jan: WashingtonExaminer: Laura Ingraham shows emails tying alleged Ukraine whistleblower to Obama White House meeting on Burisma
    by Daniel Chaitin
    Fox News host Laura Ingraham reported Wednesday evening that she obtained a chain of State Department emails stemming from a standard request for comment from New York Times journalist ***KEN VOGEL(ex-POLITICO), whose reporting helped generate scrutiny of Hunter Biden’s ties to Ukrainian gas company Burisma…

    On May 1, 2019, Vogel contacted State Department official Kate Schilling about a story he was working on regarding an Obama administration meeting in January 2016 with Ukrainian prosecutors and mentioned the name of the CIA analyst believed to be the whistleblower whose complaint sparked impeachment proceedings that led to two articles of impeachment: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
    Ingraham did not state the name of the alleged whistleblower — Fox News hosts are banned from doing so until the identity is confirmed — and blacked out the name when showing excerpts of documents. However, she likely was referring to Eric Ciaramella, who some Republicans and conservative media figures believe is the whistleblower.

    In the email, Vogel wrote, “We are going to report that [State Department official] Elizabeth Zentos attended a meeting at the White House on 1/19/2016 with Ukrainian prosecutors and embassy officials as well as … [redacted] from the NSC … the subjects discussed included efforts within the United State government to support prosecutions, in Ukraine and the United Kingdom, of Burisma Holdings, … and concerns that Hunter Biden’s position with the company could complicate such efforts.”

    Ingraham said this email was forwarded to Schilling’s colleagues Zentos and George Kent, who appears to have been a source for Vogel…
    Kent, who was stationed in Kyiv at the time, told House investigators during an impeachment hearing last year that he raised concerns in 2015 about Hunter Biden holding a position with Burisma but was rebuffed by a Joe Biden aide…

    Using archived Obama White House visitor logs, Ingraham said her team was able to corroborate details of the January 2016 meeting, showing on the screen the names of Ukrainian officials checked into the White House by Ciaramella, who was Ukraine director on the National Security Council…
    Ingraham said the story was never published and reached out to Vogel and the New York Times to ask why the report never came to fruition. While Vogel did not reply, Ingraham said the New York Times director of communications simply stated that Vogel’s request for comment was consistent with their news-gathering process…

    Still, Ingraham said that “the timing of their request and the subsequent squashing of the story are very interesting,” noting how Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on April 25, one week before Vogel’s request. She speculated a number of possibilities, including that Joe Biden’s campaign somehow got the New York Times to drop the story.

    On the same day as Vogel’s request to the State Department, he had a report published examining how in 2016, then-Vice President Joe Biden threatened to withhold $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees if Ukraine did not fire its top prosecutor, Viktor Shokin…
    Vogel has continued to report on the Bidens and Ukraine and the unfolding impeachment saga. He said in a Sept. 21 interview that the Ukraine story posed a “significant liability” for Joe Biden and that there was “more to be told.” Vogel got a report published the next day that declared no evidence had surfaced that showed Joe Biden intentionally tried to protect his son by getting Shokin fired.
    BOTTOM: VIDEO: 5m43s Ingraham Angle
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/laura-ingraham-shows-emails-tying-alleged-ukraine-whistleblower-to-obama-white-house-meeting-on-burisma

    nothing to see here folks. Trump is still the only one undergoing 24/7 investigations/impeachment etc.

    at least Carter Page is now due for a big payout.

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    pat

    23 Jan: Yahoo Finance: George Soros to Start $1 Billion School to Fight Nationalists, Climate Change
    by Katherine Burton, Bloomberg; With assistance from Clea Simos
    Billionaire George Soros said he will commit $1 billion to start a global university to fight authoritarian governments and climate change, calling them twin challenges that threaten the survival of our civilization.
    The Open Society University Network will offer an international platform for teaching and research, the 89-year-old said Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The university will be launched through a partnership of the Soros-backed Central European University and Bard College.

    “As a long-term strategy our best hope lies in access to quality education, specifically an education that reinforces the autonomy of the individual by cultivating critical thinking and emphasizing academic freedom,” Soros said…

    …Soros covered a wide-range of issues, including the “overheated” U.S. economy, the dominance of Facebook Inc. and the autocratic rule of Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump, who he called a “con man and the ultimate narcissist.”…

    Soros also once again criticized Facebook for its failure to police the social media network.
    “There’s nothing to stop them, and I think there is a kind of informal mutual assistance operation or agreement developing between Trump and Facebook,” Soros said. “Facebook will work together to re-elect Trump and Trump will work to protect Facebook.
    Trump, he said, is responsible for overheating the economy. “An overheated economy can’t be kept boiling for too long,” he said…

    The $25 billion Soros Fund Management now mostly manages money for the Open Society Foundations, a worldwide network of philanthropies…
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/george-soros-commits-1-billion-201818369.html

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    J-man

    Can anyone explain why or how solar is recorded as supplying 35 MW to the NEM at 3am?

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    pat

    will this be enough to stop the Stop Adani mob? lol:

    23 Jan: NewIndianExpress: Gautam Adani plans to be largest solar energy firm
    Adani wrote that the group had quickly moved into a position to lead clean energy transformation, not just in India but on the global stage.
    “In 2019 we were ranked as the 6th largest solar player globally and as a part of this journey, we are well within reach to be India’s largest renewable energy company by 2020 and one of the top three global solar energy companies by 2021. Our existing portfolio of renewable power generating assets stands today at over 2.5 GW.
    This is expected to more than double by 2020, with the implementation of 2.9 GW under construction capacity and further record three-fold growth touching 18 GW by 2025,” he wrote (on LinkedIn).

    “Another key project that has begun taking shape as part of this journey, is the expansion of our 1.3 GW state-of-the-art solar cell and module manufacturing plant in Mundra which will turn into a 3.5 GW manufacturing facility. We are also in discussions on ventures to enable the world’s only 100 per cent green energy-based chemical manufacturing and data center facilities.,” he pointed out…
    https://www.newindianexpress.com/business/2020/jan/23/gautam-adani-plans-to-be-largest-solar-energy-firm-2093180.html

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    WXcycles

    UPDATE – A NEW EQUATORIAL JETSTREAM

    As I pointed out earlier this week (within the prior unthreaded post) there’s currently a novel anomalous Jetstream flow that’s actually straddling the equator itself right now, in a way that was previously thought not possible for such a stable persistent jet to exist at the equator. As it turns out they can and they do, it’s been occurring for most of January, and looks set to continue into February. This long comment post shows in detail how this novel jet is being mechanistically achieving it, and what is driving it to occur.

    I want to make clear form the beginning that this EQUATOR JETSTREAM FLOW is not some minor or ancillary feature. It is actually a novel emergent major feature. It’s quite a powerful jet flow, and it’s very deep in altitude, from ~14,000 ft up to the top of the tropical tropopause. It’s also very wide in latitude on either side of the equator, and is flowing a vast stream of air within it, implying it entrains a high-energy flow. What it’s currently doing is contrary to normal understanding, but is doing it anyway.

    It’s unique in that it is being fed from the western end by both the currently swollen northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere sub-tropical jetstreams, which have both expanded equatorward during the past 2 months. As they did so the south side increasingly sent streamers of jets towards the equator, especially in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

    I first took notice of this tendency before new years day and on the 2nd of Jan 2020 I made this global mosaic of what seemed to be a rather novel feature. I did not post it in here at that time as I was not sure it was a significant change in trend. Now I’m certain is it a novel and major development of a new jetstream feature which has probably not been seen before. Here’s the ECMWF global mosaic image that I made on the 2nd of Jan 2020:

    https://i.ibb.co/Ydx26zK/1-Equatorial-Jet-FORECAST-on-2nd-Jan-2019-ECMWF-Mosaic.png

    And here’s the forecast set for exactly one month later at the same altitude of 34,000 ft, on the 2nd of Feb 2020.

    https://i.ibb.co/vzkk1dp/2-Equatorial-Jet-FORECAST-on-2nd-Feb-2019-ECMWF-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted.jpg

    As you can see the jet is still present and is then fully-formed, and has a wind strength greater than 225 km/h within it at 39,000 ft and 45,000 ft. The wind is weakest at the base (~14,000 ft) and strongest where it meets the lower stratosphere. Note that colors are slightly different between the two images, I edited the display programming during January to optimize it for detecting and displaying such jet changes more clearly. This novel jetstream flow phenomena became established during early January then gradually gets stronger during the current month.

    So I’m presenting the following image series in order to to display what’s occurring here, quite unambiguously.

    Firstly, the wind from 10,000 ft to 45,000 ft focused on the area of this equatorial jet and its immediate surrounds, and its connections. Plus the geopotential pressure isobars with altitude are overlaid so we can see exactly what’s emerging and driving this novel type of equatorial jet, and why it has emerged out of ‘nowhere’ at present, and is doing things it should not be able to do. I have logged the full context so pay attention to the emerging adjacent Lows as altitude increases.

    2nd Feb 2020, WIND @

    10,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/f8qPxkc/3-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-8.jpg

    14,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/jzrJ34x/4-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-7.jpg

    18,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/svcjQ5B/5-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-1.jpg

    24,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/Fsd9JS3/6-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-2.jpg

    30,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/vhtMvNM/7-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-3.jpg

    34,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/N2Gg4vB/8-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-4.jpg

    39,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/0JFRdpx/9-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-5.jpg

    45,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/m9wLxvg/10-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-6.jpg

    Note that the wind became the strongest at the interface with the lower-most stratosphere.

    Next we look at the temperature as we go back down through the atmosphere (where black is -70C). Note that the nearly stationary geopotential Lows either side, north and south of the jet flow, have colder tops and that the air on the polewards side surrounding the Lows is much colder. These Lows do not exist below 10,000 ft, they have no “Tropical Low” surface expression. These are in fact cold-core Lows, which have extended downwards in the tropics on either side of the equator in this region west of Peru (and occur nowhere else – as yet). I don’t know for sure why they’ve favored emerging in this particular geography and location, but they clearly do prefer it, as they’re stable and almost equally strong, plus they line up almost perfectly in longitude. Plus both Lows have a lower-level High that developed just polewards of them in the lower troposphere.

    Note also for passing contrast that there’s a true warm-core lower tropospheric Tropical-Low near Fiji, in this imagery, though it’s being starved of humidity by the dry-air wrapping around it at the lower level. That low is totally different to the two cold-core lows driving this deep mid and upper level jet.

    2nd Feb 2020, TEMPERATURE @

    45,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/fvgD5HK/11-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-9.jpg

    39,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/z8C9bkP/12-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-10.jpg

    34,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/K2J3Mxn/13-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-11.jpg

    30,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/Gn0vbSQ/14-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-12.jpg

    24,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/z6TST6x/15-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted.png

    18,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/zx5QGJj/16-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png

    14,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/YWxzwDz/17-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-2.png

    10,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/n01fFsB/18-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-3.png

    As you see the Lows are both cold-cored, not actual tropical lows, and they’re both associated with a colder surrounding air mass, and have extended downward from the tropopause level to the lower mid-level, then dissipate as warm rising convective air dilutes them at about the 12 to 15 k ft level. They are coldest at the top, and as they get lower the temperature contrast decreases, which coincides with the Low weakening, and the powerful large equatorial jet between them losing its identity, within the more confused convective lower troposphere winds below ~12,000 ft.

    So let’s look at humidity, again we descend through the atmosphere.

    2nd Feb 2020, HUMIDITY @

    45,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/BByCmF4/19-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-13.jpg

    39,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/2j8JTY4/20-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-14.jpg

    34,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/jGSz6Wg/21-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-15.jpg

    30,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/zHj95jg/22-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-16.jpg

    24,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/ctJF98c/23-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-17.jpg

    18,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/DQNhGQD/24-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-18.jpg

    14,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/87MjzFP/25-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-19.jpg

    10,000 ft
    https://i.ibb.co/x6k88W1/26-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted-20.jpg

    The tops of both Lows are very dry cold air, that was sourced from sinking true stratospheric air-columns. They are in the tropics but are not tropical lows full of rising warm air. Cold dry air fell into the top of them and the temperature and humidity contrasts, from tropopause to 10,000 ft level, is what’s powering-up the two lows driving the equatorial jet between them. i.e. this equatorial jetstream feature was created by upper tropospheric cooling due to stratospheric sinking-air falling into the tropical upper tropopause in a venturi-like fashion.

    Venturi effect is a reduction in pressure that results when a liquid or gaseous fluid flows through a constricted section of pipe (in this case a low that extends up into the lower stratosphere). It’s strongest, coldest and driest at the top of this Low-pressure rotating ‘pipe’, which is effectively dropping air through the tropopause boundary down to the lower mid-level troposphere (going no lower than about 12,000 ft).

    In other words, the strengthening and deepening equatorial Jetstream flow is the bi-product of these two cold core Low ‘venturis’, full of colder-dried stratospheric air. They have lowered the altitude of the tropical tropopause where they’re located, and dropped the entire thermal profile.

    And the whole structure is stable in location and persistent over the month, as it strengthens!

    That descending stratospheric airflow is increasing in volume, which apparently started leaking down in December and amplified into January. As a result of this growing pressure difference between the two longitudinally aligned stable cold-core Lows, this has generated the powerful and still broadening “Equator-jet” between these two upper-level to mid-level cold Lows.

    I suspect such an arrangement has never been seen before or at least not noticed and recognized before, as modern instruments have not observed these growing expressions of actual sinking-stratosphere and its emergent phenomena, though it may have been suspected as implicated in prior cooling phases.

    It’s now clear we’ve entered an upper and mid-level cooling-phase of unknown duration.

    It’s onset has been sudden (or seems so, but its precursors were there in retrospect, particularly over and around Antarctica, and its SSTA, during the prior two years) and is still overprinting the remnant heating from the last major and minor El Nino events.Indeed, this major equatorial jet is siting directly above where that remnant heat from recent failed El-Ninos originated from, west of Peru and on the equator. Which is the most likely reason why these cold core Lows extended and formed then locked in that location as the ocean, troposphere and stratospheric temperature and humidity contrasts were greater there than anywhere else on earth, thus creating a venturi-like condition there, before it formed anywhere else. Such a jet may be tending to form in the equatorial Atlantic, as well, but the geography seems less favorable.

    What’s a bit surprising is that below 10,000 ft the summer hemisphere looks little different to prior, the effects of the colder air have largely not really impacted much. At present the areas most affected are Australia and New Zealand, as that’s the area where the jets have been the strongest and driest and in NZ and southern coastal Australia, the coldest during Summer south-easterlies. But that will change as Summer’s convection decreases in May and June, and the thermal profile can fall even lower. Especially if the needle flips toward a La Nina and a wetter phase of IOD. I think this just makes the change to colder conditions much more likely but does not guarantee it.

    I have no idea how brief or extended such a cooling phase will be, but I’m now reasonably assured we’re observably at the beginning of one. It could be brief, but looking at the novel jet behavior and the record speeds I suspect it’s rapid onset may not reverse quickly. If the stratosphere has cooled-off to the point of actual continuous sinking, that will probably take a couple of years to reverse. It looks like the hiatus phase was one of growing stratospheric cooling that resulted in initial sinking during about 2016 to 2017, but the initial effects were masked by the 2015-2016 El-Nino’s remnant heat, and the few smaller quasi-El-Ninos since then, which have maintained the heat levels, even as more cold air intrusion occurred. If it were not for those El-Ninos we may have noticed the cooling effects earlier. But the fact that it lingers in SST input has probably accentuated the jet speeds regardless.

    I likewise ponder if a strong equatorial jet getting progressively stronger in February sitting directly over active El Nino geography and altering winds could flip Pacific waters and thus the planet towards a stronger La Nina even during 2021? Clearly the potential is there for a disruptive or overt switch to cooler temperature ranges. A cooler strong La Nina which combined with sinking stratospheric cold that drags coolness lower to the ground, could get interesting fast (and the smell of cognitive-dissonance in the morning).

    I’m left wondering what cools the stratosphere so much that it increases its tendency to sink more readily to the point that it has become a continuous process which is now indisputably continually exciting and expanding the jetstream behavior and adding novel features to it?

    I currently think it will be due to a drop in the percentage of elemental oxygen liberation, which then reduces the formation of the molecules which ‘normally’ warm the dry stratosphere above the inversion layer. Most of the solar UV or shorter radiation and particles hit and interact with the rarefied top and middle of the stratosphere, not its denser and currently sinking base. But a sinking base also implies that the top has also been sinking and compacting, for a time. And may still be doing so. We know the upper atmosphere compacts and falls lower during a solar-minimum so it stands to reason that any extended period of lower solar activity levels will compact the atmosphere further, and expand it less within its briefer active solar phases. If that background process combines with a corresponding mechanism that also liberates fewer atomic oxygen atoms, then a growing tendency for the stratosphere to chill and sink lower, on and through the tropopause, could take place. This may be why it tends to occur more often or else more severely during consecutive decades of lower solar-activity.

    So which radiation or particle flux changes liberate stratospheric atomic oxygen? I think if that could be unambiguously identified we have a mechanism for the increased tendency toward cooling-off induced sinking, which can overprint and over-ride, and possibly even alter oceanic-cycle effects.

    i.e. it would be an indirect cumulative radiation or particle effect, and thus a lagged onset, thus a confused, if not indistinct ‘cycle’ of expressions in tropospheric weather, that’s also altered in its expression by preceding oceanic cycle pattern effects.

    So it’s up the sinking stratosphere now to show its hand in even more tangible ways. The equatorial jet is still strengthening within each forecast I see. It may become quite a conspicuous if not shockingly strong during February and March before the Summer heat subsides. Which would be a good thing in the sense that its sudden sustained emergence would create a bit of global head-scratch as to how such a strong jet is even possible there. And cooling would be the inescapable answer.

    But scientific history also illustrates that when novel things occur which were not expected or contradict the ruling paradigm, these usually go unnoticed, until directly pointed-out, and that seems to be the situation with regard to the currently extraordinarily amplified southern jetstream, and the emergence of a sustained equatorial Jetstream. Which has not been seen prior, and was considered not to be possible – and yet it is.

    ___
    I just wanted to say that noticing, capturing and showing this equatorial jet was only possible because ECMWF is such a fantastically accurate work of physics, and due to such programmable tools as Windy being openly available to all (to those responsible thank you!).

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      WXcycles

      Mod, please see moderation bin.

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      WXcycles

      As the forecasts progress it becomes clear an Atlantic “equatorial-jetstream” is also trying to get established into February, and more-or-less does so, but is only half the speed of the eastern Pacific equatorial-jet. The base is also only around 30,000 ft, so the upper cold-core lows have not developed much, as yet within the tropical Atlantic basin instance.

      Atlantic equatorial-jet
      https://i.ibb.co/KmqFvTn/Equatorial-Atlantic-jet-forming-Screenshot-2020-01-25-Windy-as-forecasted.png

      “Equatorial Jets” are higher altitude because the deep convection under them lifts them higher, plus they need sufficient temperature-contrast to develop upper-level cold-core lows either side of the equator which permits the jet to develop and strengthen.

      It’s also becoming apparent that from the central Pacific eastwards to the central Indian Ocean that air is crossing the equator from the southern-hemisphere to the northern hemisphere to join a northern jetstream flow. This mass upper air flow across the equator becomes more widespread in February. Yes this normally occurs in places, but this is almost everywhere and it becomes continuous. The tendency to do this has increased greatly.

      Equator-crossing airflow is increasing:

      45,000 ft
      https://i.ibb.co/c803PMv/45-000-ft-Screenshot-2020-01-25-Windy-as-forecasted.jpg

      39,000 ft
      https://i.ibb.co/y4BP4Wp/39-000-ft-Screenshot-2020-01-25-Windy-as-forecasted-1.jpg

      Take note that the hottest hemisphere’s tropical upper-level winds are now NET moving toward the colder hemisphere’s jet flow.

      As Winter returns to the southern hemisphere that net flow direction across the equator may be reversed. It will be interesting to see what occurs with any lingering equatorial jet as the hemisphere’s seasonal swap occurs, such may become more symmetric, defined and stronger – if it lasts that long.

      The swollen stronger northern ‘sub’-tropical jetstream has clearly moved closer to the equator along most of its length from the central Atlantic basin eastward to the western Pacific basin. And contrary to many expectations, the expanded ‘sub’-tropical jetstream became strongly zonal flow, almost paralleling the tropics line. In the following images the Tropic of Capricorn is level with the bottom of the screen:

      Zonal jet flow:

      45 k ft
      https://i.ibb.co/xf7WtTK/Zonal-45-kft-Screenshot-2020-01-25-Windy-as-forecasted-2.jpg

      34 k ft
      https://i.ibb.co/K58ZL7X/Zonal-34-kft-Screenshot-2020-01-25-Windy-as-forecasted-3.jpg

      18 k ft
      https://i.ibb.co/6WC9bcC/Zonal-18-kft-Screenshot-2020-01-25-Windy-as-forecasted-4.jpg

      The polar-jet of course operates at the lower 14,000 ft to 24,000 ft altitude range and performs most of the N-S air movement component poleward of the zonal jet, and is anything but zonal. The polar jet flow remains present at higher altitude as well but it broadens out and slows down, i.e. not a ‘jet’ per-sec, any longer, but still a mass airflow on top of the jet below.

      In general both hemisphere’s maximum jet speeds are tending to drop back to about 360 km/h in early February forecasts. And that seems to be related to the increased upper-level airflow crossing the tropics and equator, which is apparently reducing the equator to pole temperature contrasts, and therefore the pressure contrast as well, and that allows the maximum jet speeds to drop back some. Nevertheless the southern hemisphere’s maximum jet speeds are still about 145 km/h faster then they should be during a normal peak of summer sub-tropical jetstream flow (i.e. less than 215 km/h).

      358 km/h @ 34 k ft south Island New Zealand

      https://i.ibb.co/PcHwztH/358-kmh-34-k-ft-New-Zealand-Screenshot-2020-01-24-Windy-as-forecasted.png

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        WXcycles

        One thing I should have added:

        In the 2nd and 3rd screenshots above, note that the east pacific ‘equatorial-jet’ is about the size of Australia or the USA, or perhaps a bit larger then either, and its location tends to drift somewhat northward then somewhat southward of the equator line, but usually straddles it.

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      Graeme Bird

      Gentle but persistent reminder. Or condescending reminder:

      ” It’s also very wide in latitude on either side of the equator, and is flowing a vast stream of air within it, implying it entrains a high-energy flow. What it’s currently doing is contrary to normal understanding, but is doing it anyway.”

      Of course its contrary to normal understanding. If normal understanding is all about magic photons, rather than the struggle of electrical energy, fighting its way from the ionosphere to the deep earth, through gasses that are by and large natural electrical insulators.

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        Peter C

        Green thumb from me Greame.

        Perhaps you can explain a bit more about the electrical energies and insulating gases. I thought it was all about radiative gases.

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          Graeme Bird

          Since these gasses, with the exception of water vapour, and perhaps ozone, are virtually transparent to light energy in both directions, what this means is that light radiation cannot explain all this violence and overt kinetic energy that we call “the weather.” Any persistent vertical expressions of kinetic energy in our atmosphere must be down to electrical energy. We know that free space, or more appropriately aether, is a resistor. We know that moving ions or electrons is an electric current. The solar wind is therefore an electric current, and there will be a buildup of electrical energy throughout space.

          Clouds cannot accumulate static electricity to make lightning. They certainly cannot do so through friction. You and I have walked through fog, which is the same thing as a cloud. There is no friction. The water droplets don’t rub, one to the other. They float around charged and keep their distance. So the top-down controllers of the science workers have found some sort of strategic reason to disavow the obvious in this case, as they do any chance they can get.

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          Graeme Bird

          Oh sorry big mistake. What I meant was that any persistent HORIZONTAL expression of kinetic energy must be down to electricity. Okay so we have some Coriolis forces. But other than that persistent HORIZONTAL examples of kinetic energy are to do with electrical considerations. This ought not be controversial. But science is controlled by proscriptions, sacred cows and the cult of personality.

          In terms of overturning, or tunnelling under … yes you have these dry parcels of warmer air wanting to rise, and you have the differential of “wetter” parcels of air wanting to rise with a different lapse rate and in a different way. And of course when you have a parcel of air wanting to rise you have to have another parcel of air wanting to fall and rising in temperature as it does so. So you can have a lot of up and down mischief that may well have some feeble, random, and fleeting horizontal implications. But for the most part next-to-all powerful and persistent horizontal action must be, and has to be, and exercise in electrical grounding.

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          Graeme Bird

          Really if institutional science wasn’t an exercise in psychological operations and crowd control, all this would have been obvious in the early 1900′s and probably was.

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    pat

    theirABC sees a “witch hunt” at last, but not the one they refused to see for 3 years against Donald Trump!

    headline on ABC’s “Just In” page:

    Did the Democrats just expose Joe Biden to a Republican witch hunt? Analysis
    By Emily Olson
    Posted about 2 hours ago

    too idiotic and juvenile to excerpt further:

    24 Jan: ABC: Donald Trump’s impeachment trial: Key takeaways from day three
    By Emily Olson
    Photo: People (THREE WOMEN) demonstrate outside of the US Capitol on the third day of the Senate impeachment trial. (Reuters: Sarah Silbiger)

    The impeachment trial of US President Donald Trump ***marched ahead today…

    The Democrats plan to close out their opening arguments tomorrow by applying the evidence to article two, which covers obstruction of congress.
    They’ll also explain why they think Mr Trump is an ongoing threat to democracy.
    So maybe the Senators won’t pay attention, but history sure will.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-24/key-takeaways-from-donald-trump-impeachment-trial-day-three/11897894

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      Dave in the States

      I visited my elderly dad today. He didn’t have the impeachment play by play even on. He was watching figure skating instead. Nobody is paying attention to the Dems nothing burger. It’s more boring than skating.

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        James

        I suggested that sales of sleep medications will drop, and this will mean less donations from the drug companies to the Democrats. If you cannot get to sleep then put on the impeachment trial! It goes on until about midnight!

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    Lewis P Buckingham

    Just a thought about ‘no trend’ in Australian droughts.
    If there is no trend and a latterly rising CO2 level, the corollary, using the CO2 hypotheses that CO2 is the control knob of Climate Change, is that rising CO2 suppresses droughts.
    So therefore rising CO2 is good.

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    hatband

    Casualty’s around Australia are asking people who have recently been in Wuhan, China, or

    had contact with someone who has, to advise staff.

    Here’s a longish article from a non expert:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cant-quarantine-the-corona-chan/

    Among other things, it can spread through the eyes, and people in Wuhan

    are urged to avoid Public Places.

    Also rated more contagious/ deadly than the 1919 Spanish Flu.

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    A Plea: This is an open thread but it is too boring to read nasty snarky insults. People who need snipping will not be able to keep posting. Those comments have been removed.

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    Peter C

    Thanks Jo.

    it is too boring to read nasty snarky insults. People who need snipping will not be able to keep posting.

    Thanks for sparing me from the tedium.

    Actually I skim most of the comments. I do keep tabs on a few Trolls. The ones who often use “nasty snarky insults”.

    The blog rules are clear, and I am sure that you have reminded the offenders personally.

    For those who want a reminder or a refence, the blog rules are here:
    http://joannenova.com.au/rules-legal/

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    Hi Jo

    Since this is an open thread I wanted to ask you if you have looked at the recent Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) phenomenon. Apparently these things are very rare (according to Spaceweather.com) and only occur when the temperature in the stratosphere goes down to -85°C. Apparently a lot of these are happening at the moment due to these very low temperatures. Is this having any effect on climate?

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    Peter C

    I should also say that I have been snipped few times.

    I think Jo is very broad minded when it comes to the boundaries of comments and I hope that continues.

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    Graeme Bird

    I am very glad for all this misbehaviour. Or else I’d never be able to come back as some sort of penitent, being as I would be the only unreliable trouble-maker.

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    Graeme Bird

    If it requires such a fantastically low temperature to produce these clouds it’s possible that they may be a delayed reaction to the Jet age. With jets slowly increasing stratospheric water vapour, but with few areas where it’s cold enough to form clouds.

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