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This is the “old normal” — these fires are mid to late season fires for NSW

Fires in Spring? It’s normal for fires to peak in Spring in NSW

Greg Mullins is a former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner and a councillor on the Climate Council, he implies in the Sydney Morning Herald that this is abnormal and that fires are starting earlier

If anyone tells you, “This is part of a normal cycle” or “We’ve had fires like this before”, smile politely and walk away, because they don’t know what they’re talking about.

In NSW, our worst fire years were almost always during an El Nino event, and major property losses generally occurred from late November to February. Based on more than a century of weather observations our official fire danger season is legislated from October 1 to March 31. During the 2000s though, major fires have regularly started in August and September, and sometimes go through to April.

This year, by the beginning of November, we had already lost about as many homes as during the disastrous 2001-2002 bushfire season. We’ve now eclipsed 1994 fire losses.

Mosomoso: The fire season in NSW is spring — this is not early, this is “late season”

For those not living in the east and who may be tricked…

Spring is the main fire season for NSW. Because of the winter-dry/summer-wet pattern and the spring wind patterns you will get massive burns like now and 2013 and 1951 and 1980 and 1895 etc. There can also be lethal fires in summer when the spring pattern persists with drought and westerlies. Hence 1939, despite La Nina and time of year.

This talk of “early season” is a stunt. September is normal peak for fire here and when the rains and storms don’t come in October/Nov…that is “late season”. In the past the severity depended on how much good growth preceded the spring dry (1951 came after the all-time wet of 1950). With the lack of forestry, fire-maintenance etc now….who knows?

Bureau of Meteorology – Fire Seasons

The coastal areas north of Sydney in NSW are listed as a “Spring” peak fire season. Sydney is in the “Spring and Summer fire season” zone.

Fires Seasons of Australia, NSW Spring fires.

Fires Seasons of Australia, NSW Spring fires.

As Silliggy (Lance Pidgeon) notes far back in 1951 before “climate change” the fire season in Queensland was listed as July – January 30. So these seasons are nothing new. And it was the dry cold that helped the fires.

Dry cold helps bushfires, The Courier Mail, Brisbane, 16th May 1951

The dry-cold wave has caused the extension of the bushfire danger season in central and South-West Queensland.

Normally the fire season is from July 1 to January 30. It has been extended to June 30. Rural Fires Board inspector (Mr. G. Gentry) said last night that proclamation of the fire danger season meant all burning off had to be brought under the notice of the chief fire warden in each area. Any fires have to be kept strictly to regulation limits.

Mr. Gentry said frosts were killing and drying green pastures. Westerly winds were fanning bushfires. Bushfires were still reported over thousands of acres in South-west Queensland.

Crops ruined
Bean and pea supplies to the city markets yesterday were the lowest for months. A marketing official said frosts had wiped out bean crops in South Queensland.

The cold snap had forced down the demand for citrus fruits, he added. The Weather Bureau forecasts further frosts for the next few days in South Queensland. Brisbane’s minimum temperature of 43.2 deg. [fahrenheit] yesterday, war 7.3 below normal, and 3.8 lower than on Monday.

And from Bob Fernley-Jones, the worst fire in Queensland was October 1951.

BUSH FIRES WORST IN Q’LAND HISTORY BRISBANE, Oct. 2.
Queensland s bushfire outbreak was the worst in the State’s history, said the Rural Fires Board Inspector (Mr. G. Gentry) tonight.He asserted that 98 p.c. of the fires burning now were started deliberately. Under soaring temperatures, fires were burning to day in many parts of the State.
A fire near Clermont, in Central Queensland, is reported to be out of control, with the heat so intense that fire-fighters could not approach within 100 yards of the flames. From Injune to Baralaba chains of fires stretch for 150 miles.

The fire between Injune and Baralaba is out of control in dense timber and rolling grasslands. While fighting a fire at Eidsvold. Mr. A. Bramley was overcome by the smoke and had to be dragged from the flames.

Airline pilots said to day that smoke enveloped a vast area bounded by Emerald (central Queensland),the Darling Downs and Casino (NSW). Capt. M. Mitchell, of Queensland Airlines, said there were hundreds of fires in this area.

The 1951 fires were caused not by a long drought, but by lush seasons followed by a short drought of 8 months

Fires of 1951, October, November, Australia, QLD, NSW

Trove Nov 1951

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 1951. BUSH FIRES
For the most part Australia’s seasonal reverses are measured by the incidence of flood and drought, both of which are capable of taking a heavy toll; but from time to time there enters into the picture a third hazard, that of the bush fire. Never before has greater devas- tation been wrought amongst pastures, livestock and timber assets than is being exacted by
the bush fires that for weeks have devastated large tracts ot country . in New South Wales and Queensland. If anything, they are worse in New South Wales, for there the forest fire menaces the outskirts of cities and towns, even Sydney itself, adding the tragedy of people being burned out of their homes.
In Queensland we have es-caped that extremity, but cur- rent losses in stock, pastures and fencing are reputedly! severe enough in all conscience. Nor does it end with the passing of the fire. Stock which’ escaped the flames are faced with starvation on burnt out runs, and owners have the formidable task of restoring fences with inadequate supplies of labour and material. It is safe to say that the evil influences of the bush fires of 1951 will long remain with us.
The severity of the fires this year is accounted for by the lush seasons of the past two years, which provided a luxur- iant crop of herbage and
undergrowth that became tin- der dry from the eight months drought that succeeded the flood rains early in the year.
VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.7/10 (70 votes cast)
This is the "old normal" -- these fires are mid to late season fires for NSW, 9.7 out of 10 based on 70 ratings

142 comments to This is the “old normal” — these fires are mid to late season fires for NSW

  • #
    GI

    Nothing much changes during fire season – fuel loads and firebugs – politicians and councils all have short memories.

    280

    • #

      Short memories for sure but are the serious early November fires further north and in a smaller area now now? Compare 1915.
      “between Milton and Moruya. In the densely-timbered coun
      try in the heart of the bush the fires are raging
      with great fierceness. For over a week in some
      places riles of furiously.blazing country have
      proved a sight of great grandeur, but possessing
      terrors for the people residing in the neigh
      bourhood.
      The district as far as Bateman’s Bay has been
      practically swept by fire, the flames at times
      reaching within a few yards of the settlers’
      homes.”
      “Travellers from the Mountains on Sunday
      witnessed-a series of bush fires hardly without
      parallel even in Australia. Practically the whole
      of the mountains were ablaze. Many homes
      went down in. the holocaust. At Wentworth
      Falls, “Cherrywood,” the home of the late Mr.
      John Hordern, of Horderit Bros., was left a
      blackened heap of ruins.
      At Lawson nine houses were burnt to the
      ground, and the district in the vicinity of Echo
      Point was a fierce mass of swirling flames,
      which, fanned by a strong westerly breeze,
      roared on their path of destruction. The old
      Council-chambers were burnt down, and The
      Palace, a boarding establishment, was saved
      only after a most strenuous fight. -
      Between Lawson and Katoomba the flames
      had on Saturday almost disappeared, but early
      on Sunday morning a strong westerly roused
      the sleeping fire to still greater exertions, and
      during the day an appalling spectacle was wit
      nessed. The flames devoured everything in
      their path. For miles nothing but the red glow
      of the flames was to be seen, and the atmos
      phere was stifling. ”
      https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/98845082

      “BUSH FIRES.
      MAILS AFFECTED.
      The postal authorities advise that, owing to
      bush fires having destroyed two bridges be-
      tween Glen Innes and Grafton, it la Impossible,
      for the present, to forward mails for tho Graf-
      ton district via that route”
      “https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/238772273″

      “With a westerly gale feeding bush
      fires over an area 40 miles long by
      20 miles wide to the north, south
      and west of the city, a temperature
      touching 103 points in’ the shade,
      and a desperate struggle to save pit
      tops and powder magazines, New
      castle and district will long remem-
      ber “Black Sunday.”
      https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/220893645

      60

      • #
        JohnM

        Australia is approximately 7,741,220 sq km.

        http://environment.gov.au/land/nrs/about-nrs/ownership
        About 20% of Australia is protected land (reserves). With the exception of
        Indigenous Protected Areas, the reserves are not contiguous areas; see the map at the link above.

        My Fire Watch Map: https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au
        The Forest Fires are largely coastal; near populated areas. Queensland and New South Wales appear to represent the greatest number of widespread fires yet represent less than 10% of the National Reserve System.

        Indigenous community owned and managed lands form the largest component of the National Reserve System covering more than 66 million hectares, over 44 per cent of the NRS and over eight per cent of Australia. Yet, are only impacted by fires in the North.

        These wild fires don’t appear to be the result of NRS land management practices.

        20

        • #
          JohnM

          After zooming in on the My Fire Watch map, I take back the comment about NRS land management practices. Significant fires are currently burning in National Parks. Wallemi National Park and Yengo National Park are examples.

          I’m assuming these National Parks are part of the NRS.

          40

          • #
            JohnM

            https://news.stanford.edu/2019/09/30/new-treatment-prevents-wildfires/

            September 20, 2019
            Stanford researchers have developed a gel-like fluid to prevent wildfires
            Scientists and engineers worked with state and local agencies to develop and test a long-lasting, environmentally benign fire-retarding material. If used on high-risk areas, the simple, affordable treatment could dramatically cut the number of fires that occur each year.

            The idea is to spray areas where people hike, camp, etc. Roadsides are also logical.

            10

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Absolutely correct as far as it goes but Greg Mullins goes on

    In NSW, our worst fire years were almost always during an El Nino event, and major property losses generally occurred from late November to February. Based on more than a century of weather observations our official fire danger season is legislated from October 1 to March 31, but during the 2000s though, major fires have regularly started in August and September, and sometimes go through to April.
    The October 2013 fires that destroyed more than 200 homes were the earliest large-loss fires in NSW history – not during an El Nino
    This year, by the beginning of November, we had already lost about as many homes as during the disastrous 2001-2002 bushfire season. We’ve now eclipsed 1994 fire losses.
    Fires are burning in places and at intensities never before experienced – rainforests in northern NSW, tropical Queensland, and the formerly wet old-growth forests in Tasmania.

    for those who think NPWS is to blame
    NPWS undertakes 75% of all hazard reduction in the state, adding that last season, NPWS undertook 137,500 hectares of prescribed burns, which was above its target of 135,000 hectares. (Bradstock 2019)

    So fires are starting earlier and continuing later, but its ‘normal’. Major fires are not connected to El Nino, but its ‘normal’. Drought and climate change are directly affecting the bushfire risk, but that’s also ‘normal’

    here is a link to Professor Bradstock’s piece(s) for News.com and for the Conversation
    ttps://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/australia-in-uncharted-territory-with-bushfire-risk-this-summer-with-the-worst-yet-to-come/news-story/90a14efc2c8a00637f72d4620d43e5d4
    https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-were-the-kindling-and-now-the-east-coast-is-ablaze-126750

    226

    • #
    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      Further evidence solar panels and windmills do not prevent bushfires.

      270

    • #

      Hardly. Greg Mullins is not remotely correct (as the post shows) He’s wrong about so many things I need several posts.

      As for your NPWS quote — hectares on their own are meaningless — what kind of rotation are they on — how many years does it take them to burn all the vulnerable fuels at least once? How old and loaded are the forests?

      And please get specific – natural climate change affects fires, but man-made climate change is something else entirely. Given that models are useless at rain and wind, why would any scientist pretend that man-made climate change is implicated at all?

      480

      • #
      • #
        Komrade Kuma

        The issue with ‘hazard reduction burns’ is not so much how many hectares are burned each year but how big the backlog of unburnt area is and whether the ‘burnt areas’ have had time to regenerate some or all of their undergrowth. The real issue of when we get severe fire weather is what is the state of the landscape that weather is then acting on. Weather variation is far, far greater than any climate change influence.

        Even if we include ‘climate change’ in the mix of material contributors to fire risk (along with the current weather, El Nino/La Nina, numbers of tree changers in an area, the lunatic behaviour of firebugs and the bushfire porn put out by the msm) I suggest that the cumulative state of the hazard reduction programs is the dominant one as far as total risk is concerned.

        As for Greg Mullins and his statements that hazard reduction is not critical, him being on the Climate Council says all that needs to be said imo. I put it down to smoke inhalation or some form of ADD since his retirement.

        Re his utterances about fire seasons, it is well established that our ‘seasons’, notionally based on the northern hemisphere periods as exemplified by the spectacular behaviour of all that deciduous plant life up there, have a lot more variation to them in both time and intensity on this continent. Here we are in mid november and its fire season in NSW and Queensland but snowing in Tasmania and wet and windy in souther Victoria. The reality is that mid November is delivering mid summer and mid winter weather simultaneously only 1000 km apart. I recall missing summer in Tasmania about 25 or 30 years ago when I went to WA for a couple of weeks and having a log fire on Christmas day. That indicates the range of natural variation, ‘droughts and flooding rains’ are part of what we love-hate about this ‘sunburnt country’.

        180

    • #
      Bob Fernley-Jones

      @ Fitzroy/Greg Mullins

      Per this blogpost; Greg Mullins is a former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner and a councillor on the Climate Council and he asserts (my bold):

      “…but during the 2000s though, major fires have regularly started in August and September, and sometimes go through to April.”

      Go to:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushfires_in_Australia

      Then scroll down to the table and click the States/Territories column heading-arrows to sort all NSW/ACT significant bushfires.
      of the 28 major bushfires listed, from 18 November 1944 through to 2019, the earliest date was 17 October.
      (August and September totally absent)

      150

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Major is the key word here Bob, you are inadvertently supporting Greg’s point. A major fire event like this one normally happens later

        114

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          I consulted the General and he was emphatic that Incendiary Combustion Events, ICE, such as a major event could only happen in the absence of hazard reduction burn offs.

          Since majors are under his control there’s no reason to contradict that.

          KK

          90

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Great link…now all we need to do is find the rainfall and temp records for 3 months before each major fire and see if we can find any correlation/establish a pattern…..

        If I had the time Id do it.

        I did forward to all my family the 2003 article regarding the concerns of the CSIRO expert had about lack of proper harard reduction burnibg for the last 40 years.Nice to get to the root cause instead of the usual climate fairy dust and leprecauns…….

        80

      • #
        Another Ian

        “Greg Mullins is a former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner”

        Why didn’t he fix it when he was?

        50

    • #
      PeterW.

      Playing games with figures, PF?

      That is 2.7% of the are for which the NPWS is responsible, or roughly 1/40th of the area for which the NPWS is responsible.

      One of the older tricks in the book is to set a low standard and pretend that meeting it equals “success”….. but this figure is nowhere near the 5% minimum recommended by the Black Saturday Royal Commission.

      140

      • #
        Another Ian

        IIRC the burn cycle in Kruger National Park was 5 years

        30

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Did you read the ideas that inform the strategy? No you did not

        1. what makes 5% the golden rule, please explain that
        2. they use an approach that includes all stakeholders, who agreed to the strategy – can you explain why you are right?
        3. The approach is varied according to the landform, location etc, which is why I included the specifics – show me where they are wrong?

        08

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          “1. what makes 5% the golden rule, please explain that”

          One of the first things my parents taught me was to wash my hands after going to the toilet.

          It was a golden rule.

          Maybe you could try it: keeps you healthy.

          KK

          21

        • #
          PeterW.

          Fitz….

          5% is not the golden rule…. it was the minimum as recommended by a Royal Commission

          To reiterate something you appear unable to understand. Every Royal Commission into Australian Bushfires for the last 80 years has found that we are Not…Doing…Enough….
          I’ve already more than answered your challenge. I’m left wondering if you genuinely couldn’t understand the issue, or you are too busy admiring your own self-assessed superiority to actually take it in.

          110

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            No – I’m disputing a suspiciously round number arrived at many years ago, when controlled burning was the only tool in the tool box. For example is it 5% of woodland, 5% of rainforest, 5% of alpine habitat, 5% of swamps. 5% of coast, 5% of riparian 5% of tropics? the 5% also implies a 20 year cycle, is that correct? Afterall folklore on this site says that 5 years is too long. IS the plant community able to sustain burning at 5, 10 15 20 years without changing into a different community.

            Every Royal Commission into Australian overdose deaths at festivals has recommended pill testing – so this and fires is a political issue. the LNP has been in power for 17 of the last 23 years. talk to them about implementation why don’t you.

            finally pick this apart and get back
            https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/parks-reserves-and-protected-areas/fire/fire-management-strategies

            19

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              The guy from CSIRO who was the bushfire expert in 2003 article said clearly we werent doing enough hazard reduction burning, and it was getting worse. That means we were constantly letting fuel build up.

              If you assume the whole point of constantly reduced hazard reduction burning is to build up fuel load so the inevitable moster fires can be blamed on the non-existant “climate change”, then such a thing is happening. In military terms you would call it a false flag event, a historical equivalent might be the burning of the Reichstag in the 1930s…….this ultimately all about pursuit of power. We should also acknowledge that tge greenists are patient and a 40 year timeline is normal for them, and once you recognise that, patterns then start to appear. Lessons learned.

              The friction point is politics – the gist of it all was that the drama of firebombing planes is was seen to be preferable to hard graft and reduction burns.

              As such, its likely that the current status quo of % burns sounds great, but you would have to plot it over the last 30-40 years. 5% sounds good but “developed working with the community” sounds like a cowardly compromise to not upset the greenies, and which ultimately may not actually protect the community.

              If we sensibly acknowledge that the greenists have influenced multiple levels of govt, we should therefore see an overarching moving of the greenist agenda forward, with the ultimate aim of driving people off land and locking it up with no future access.

              As Winston Churchill said, never let a good crisis go to waste…..

              50

              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                Again blame the greenies, face the facts, or at least read the links. After a lot of criticism in the 80’s and 90’s NPWS adopted a zonal management plan with the aim of controlling fires which started within the boundaries of the parks. The idea is that fuel management is focused on the edges of the park, and the middle is left as natural as practicable. The zones will use natural firebreaks like rivers, as well as controls like slashing and controlled burns. The fire management regime is not, or ever has been designed to use fire in the core high ecological value areas. After all it is not a state forest, where you are protecting your timber resource.

                Oh , by the way, I value the natural environment, and I vote green, but I’ve never held any power. So tell how do these greenies do it.

                15

              • #
                AndyG55

                “Again blame the greenies, face the facts”

                Yep, one day you will manage to face the facts.

                Until then, you will remain DISHONEST. !!

                11

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                Well, it seems to have made little difference. Clearly something is not right.

                The 2003 article said this lack of hazard reduction burning had been a 30 year+ systemic problem.

                I stand unchanged on what I wrote above.

                Oh and if it is a green influence that’s the root of the problem – it is what it is.

                And to be honest, while I don’t like the idea of wildlife getting burnt, if it takes a few monster fires to clean out the excess fuel and we lose a few critters in the process, I can happily live with that, as long as people are OK.

                30

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          what makes 5% the golden rule, please explain that

          The Golden Rule is: cool burn the percentage that is necessary to prevent intense, uncontrollable, conflagrations.

          In Western Australia that’s apparently 8% per annum.

          they use an approach that includes all stakeholders, who agreed to the strategy

          It looks like the Royal Commission negotiated that figure down due to the green/left representations and other lobbying.

          show me where they are wrong?

          https://youtu.be/oAYnMxM552E

          The smoke’s got in you eyes Peter. You can’t see the irresponsibility of your ignorance.

          100

    • #

      Here in northwest NSW, NPWS is known as the National Spark and Wildfire service at our RFS season planning meetings, they provide zero management of many state forest areas within our brigade area, locked up by Bob Carr, the chief vandal. Those unmanaged areas are probably the source of one third of our callouts, the rest MVA’s, idiots lighting a fire in a total fire ban, the odd house fire etc.

      When a fire we are called to hits the fence of any NPWS property going in, we give up and drive around and put it out when it comes out on the other side. We aren’t allowed continue responsible logging, so instead it can all burn to ash, wildlife and all, whenever conditions favour fire.

      141

      • #
        PeterW.

        Aye…. they’ve been dodging their responsibilities for decades by using volunteers as unpaid labour. We have work to do and we didn’t sign up to do theirs for them.

        What a shame they can’t be held to the same standard as private landholders.

        101

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          I think you’ll find that NPWS has around 1200 trained firefighters, but in any seriously large event more resources are needed. We had Tasmanians, Victorians, and crews from the central coast over the last 2 weeks, but this was a large fire. However, most of the time NPWS does all its own work.

          28

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        here are the management plans for your area
        https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/parks-reserves-and-protected-areas/park-management/parks-plans-of-management?regions=New%20England%20North%20West
        you will note that “fire is a natural part of the environment” but as an override, fire is aggressively managed at the park boundaries”, using a zonal system.

        37

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Did you not read this bit Peter?:

          they provide zero management of many state forest areas within our brigade area

          Again, you need to work on your reading skills. Your comprehension is appalling.

          And when you get a day or two off your keyboard I recommend you actually walk through some of the State forest areas that have been “locked-down” and see for yourself just how bad it is. No firebreaks. Old fire-trails overgrown and unable to be used due to fallen timber, new growth and gullied-out creek-crossings. No removal of noxious weeds and fallen timber from under the canopy.

          It’s a disaster that has ceased waiting to happen. It’s happening now; because of the gross negligence and destructive policy settings promoted by the green/left over the last three or more decades.

          90

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            State forests are managed by NPWS? I thought they had their own management. After all their aims – quality timber production, is nowhere near the management aims for National Parks.

            You do understand the difference?

            14

            • #
              AndyG55

              “You do understand the difference?”

              Timber harvesting requires good clear roads and access to be maintained.

              If they want the timber to remain harvestable, they need to do everything they can to reduce fuel load and increase access.

              Trees grow nice and straight when not competing with closed in undergrowth

              Do YOU comprehend the difference. !

              (oops, comprehension is NOT in your repertoire, is it)

              01

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              Of course I understand the difference.

              Refer to my last paragraph. That deals with where the policy failure originates. It applies to all forested areas, be they State forests, National Parks, nature reserves or UN World Heritage Areas.

              You can choose to misunderstand. After all, pretending not to know something that is as obvious as the nose on your face, is probably the only strategy available to you to manage the contradiction. It’s called willful ignorance.

              21

      • #
        Ian1946

        When I was in the then Bush Fire Brigade in the large 80′s we had a fire break out in the Ku-Ring-Gai NP is was impossible to fight it as the flame intensity was too great. Or got so hot, the Armco on the side of the road melted.

        Proper management of the area could have prevented much of the damage. Crosslands Reserve, which was managed by the council, was regularly hazard reduced.

        30

        • #
          Screaming Nutbag

          Guy I went to school with was burnt to a crisp in one of those fires. 4 of the 8 people in the team survived by running downhill instead of trying to run uphill against the flames.

          20

    • #

      I see Tasmania mentioned but it too needs some context from History. Black. Tuesday,
      February 7, 1967
      “The Tasmanian bushfires, one cf the worst disasters
      Australia has known, struck virtually without warning. Homes
      exploded, farms and factories were wiped out, and many were
      left only with the clothes they were wearing. The final death
      roll, as we go to press, is still unknown.”
      “It became hideously
      familiar to us, this story of
      husbands separated from
      wives, parents from chil-
      dren, waiting out the hours
      till they were brought to-
      gether.
      Too often the end of the
      story was tragedy.”
      https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/44796997

      “HOBART, Thursday.—
      Southern Tasmania’s fire
      death roll is now 55
      A late report says a 71
      year-old Snug man died
      from a heart attack soon
      after picking up three ter
      rified children in a Snug
      street and saving his house
      from the flames.”
      https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/106962845

      51

    • #
      R.B.

      I do think we need average burnt per ignitions/firebugs to get anything meaningful before discussing what made the fires worse. 60 fires in Queensland and over 100 in NSW. Apparently just crows flying into power lines.

      And if you think Peter has made a good point, wouldn’t you just shut up so as to not incite even one juvenile to make Australia aware of climate change? Peter has absolutely nothing to prove the average half a degree of warming manifests itself as 10 degrees of warming in NSW/Queensland. Nothing to prove that despite the world getting wetter, although probably not statistically significant, that NSW was targeted for a drought. Nothing and yet a good person wouldn’t push the propaganda that it was CC even if they had just to stop maybe one fire that might be started by some delusional fella – and the NSW police have caught one such man in August. They’re out there.

      70

    • #
      R.B.

      There is no argument for claiming that a small amount of global warming raised temperatures in NSW by degrees in the past 30-40 years. Peter, do you know how much it would need to to bring up climate change as a factor. What about rainfall. The world is not getting dryer so how many mm less rain fell because CC picked on NSW and how much less does it need to be to claim CC is a major factor?

      Once you have done this, look at the average burnt per ignitions incident. Over 60 fires in Queensland and over 100 in NSW. Is there actually a trend here to blame on CC?

      One middle aged arsonist was arrested in August trying to start fires for propaganda reasons so look at yourself in a mirror and ask what sort of person would incite another when another million acres burnt would not prove a thing.

      40

    • #
      AndyG55

      Anomalously cold SSTs above and below Australia = DROUGHT

      Weak sun makes southern jet stream wobble.. Cycle of hot dry blustery north-westerlies and cool to cold south eastern.

      Drought, uncleared bush (thanks to greenies), hot dry blustery winds ignition -> dangerous bushfires

      Absolutely no evidence of any affect from increased atmospheric CO2

      Plenty of evidence that the intensity is down to the greeeenie agenda of locking up land and blocking proper clearing activities.

      30

    • #
      Bill Johnston

      Oh no, Peter Fitzroy, not THE Greg Mullins who can’t join the dots between what happened with the climate and what happened in the forests that were primed to burn. The one who is the resident expert on the Climate Council; who are funded by WWF woops, the Purves Environment Fund to spread disinformation dressed-up as science woops, doctored photographs about global warming.

      Peter, remember Cyclone Yasi – the one in January 2011 that caused grief and pain to Professor ‘carbon-tax’ Garanut just as he was trying to con everybody into believing that his WWF-tax would change the climate? (It also flooded Brisbane.)

      Dear Peter grab some data .… following Yasi, most districts east of the Great Dividing Range between Mackay and Sydney enjoyed average to above rainfall until 2018. Join some dots: sustained reasonable to good conditions -> sustained growth in all those forests and national parks that are the responsibility of government agencies.

      Sustained growth -> build-up of all that carbon, which John Howard said helped meet our Kyoto commitments. However, that carbon was simply fuel waiting for the next rainfall downturn. Are you still with me Peter or am I going too fast for your hard-working cogs?

      More dots … remembering that good conditions don’t last forever, the rainfall downturn =>> low humidity, low moisture in the landscape .… like magic, fuel + ignition -> FIRE (who would have thought, obviously not Mullins) …. the normal sort of fire you get when due to incompetent management, reduction of staff in the National Parks and Wildfire woops, Wildlife Service, unprecedentedly catastrophic fuel buildup; forests dry out and someone tosses a match. Even Mullins should be able to understand that scenario; after all he was the bloke in-charge!

      So the big blustering flames … fire-fronts that burn everything, the ecology, koalas, threatened species, aboriginal stuff, infrastructure, houses, people … are the result of the fool’s errand of ‘storing’ fuel in a flammable landscape.

      Mullins may have been good with hoses and fire trucks (possibly not as good with the trucks) but by 2016, he had turned into a preacher for Purves telling us it was ‘climate change’.

      Self-badged Emergency leaders for climate action … really! More like dumbos who can’t join dots.

      Except in their imagination, and that of Mullins fellow climate clowns at the Climate Council, where is there any evidence that the climate has changed?

      Cheers,

      Dr. Bill

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    Absolutely true. I grew up in the 1950s and 60s on a farm in the Burnett. After winter frosts the south-west winds made July and August the worst months for fires. Fire breaks were put in well before this (along the roads mainly) and burning off didn’t happen until summer storms started. Frosted grass was burnt off in October or November to allow the green shoots to grow. Main changes: improved pastures; less frosts; no more steam trains. Also thicker bush, lots of hobby farms, and fire bugs.

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    Peter Fitzroy

    improved pastures; less frosts of course that’s ‘normal’

    less frosts are not a sign for things warming?

    not replying to Ken, just saying

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    el gordo

    El Nino was hanging around in 1951-52, soon to be replaced by horrendous La Nina floods.

    https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

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    TdeF

    There is a real desperation to blame these fires on a 50% increase in CO2 over more than 100 years and of course to also blame the increase in CO2 on fossil fuels. Both are assertions without any proof. The second is demostrably wrong. That is not science, so why are they doing this? It’s all about money and power. And the poor fools who believe any story.

    That a 50% increase in CO2 increases the frequency of bush fires in Australia is an amazing assertion. How would you even measure this? And of course this has to come from a thing called Global Warming of 1C, not just the 50% increased growth from higher CO2.
    Does anyone seriously believe +1C over 100 years changes anything?

    All these Armageddon stories are just fantasy, like all the end of world scenarios since the beginning of time.

    What is puzzling is the insistence that it is all true but at $1,500Billion a year to prevent it, it’s not a question which needs answering. Everyone has their hands out.

    How many religions are there in the world? How many are based on an end of world scenario, end of all days?

    And which of them is true? Certainly not man made Global Warming.

    So it’s another Royal Commission coming. And they will find exactly what they have found every single time. Nothing to do with Global Warming, just the eternal failure of governments to do what they are paid to do, protect the citizens. They will grab Climate Change to deflect the blame from where it is rightly due, Governments at every level.

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      Kalm Keith

      That’s the summary that has to be pushed but when there are so many media personalities pushing the CAGW, humans did it meme, the chances of redirecting the delusion are slim.

      In the mean time people like John Hewson are out there riding the crest of the waves, in his case as Chief Executive of a new renewables adventure to “save us from ourselves”.

      KK

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      OriginalSteve

      Yes…..i wonder when they will fly in Leo D to spruik for their rather pathetic climate change dog and pony show?

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      Peter Fitzroy

      So a short digression into logic and the ideas of assertion.
      In general terms this is what is known as an informal fallacy where the proof lies in the repetition of the same statement (this is what AndyG55 specialises in), there is no evidence involved. As my assertion that the moon is made of green cheese is equally valid with your “50% increase in CO2 over more than 100 years and of course to also blame the increase in CO2 on fossil fuels”
      This is why I use references to back my assertions so that they are backed by either inductive or deductive logic (thank you Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance)

      so by logic the moon is made of green cheese is equal to “That a 50% increase in CO2 increases the frequency of bush fires in Australia is an amazing assertion. How would you even measure this? And of course this has to come from a thing called Global Warming of 1C, not just the 50% increased growth from higher CO2.
      Does anyone seriously believe +1C over 100 years changes anything?”

      Thanks me at your leisure

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        robert rosicka

        I think we broke fitzy , he’s rambling on and not making any sense !

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        RB.

        The logic is that these fires were not caused by climate change – as explained in all the other comments. So who is actually repeating the fallacy?

        Again, at half a degree of warming since CO2 levels were safe and man’s emissions could not have been a factor as a global average and no significant change in average global rainfall, you need to do an extremely good explanation of why NSW and Queensland were picked on before you go on another rant.

        01

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        el gordo

        Mr Fitz the early 1860s, 1870s and 1890s were cool and wet, whereas the late 1860s, 1870s, 1880s and 1890s were dry. There is a distinct pattern which should be incorporated within the hazard reduction scheme.

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        AndyG55

        there is no evidence involved

        That’s the PF way.

        duck and weave, display your ignorance !!

        stop the petty distractions an EVASIONS.

        Produce the evidence for CO2 warming.

        You have NONE.

        It is a FANTASY.

        11

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        AndyG55

        “Thanks me at your leisure”

        We do thank you PF… that is why we keep you typing gibberish.

        You are our best weapon, but are too dumb to realise it. :-)

        THANKS for continuing to show that there is absolutely no empirical evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2

        You are doing a GREAT JOB making everyone aware of that fact.

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  • #

    Fires starting earlier and persisting till later? Fires can leave you alone for well over a decade, as happened here after the Millennium Drought. This is just another verbal or reportage stunt, comparing 2019 coloured apples to fifty year old faded oranges. Absence of fire means regrowth which means…get ready!

    Cool burns and proper maintenance do not suit these marsupial roasters. They want Elvis fire-fighting and media tragedies because dull old maintenance will kill their putrid narrative. Why maintain and conserve when you have to feed $444 million to a foundation with more board members than staff? And those renamed “Red Sign” racing yachts don’t come cheap in Monaco, do they Greta?

    Buzz off, koala killers.

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    Peter C

    Should we put the Fires Out?

    The focus of the Firefighters seems to be “Put the Fires OUT”. But is that the correct strategy? Maybe, where property is not threatened they should be left to burn out by themselves. That reduces fuel for quite a few years.
    The Otway Ranges in Victoria burned 15 years ago. The effect on the understory is still evident.

    Previously in remote areas there was little choice. Now with aircraft the fire can be attacked anywhere. Is that what they are doing?
    Peter Fitzroy, you have experience in fire fighting, what do you say?

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      Kalm Keith

      :-) :-) :-) :-)

      This could be make or break here!!

      10

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      robert rosicka

      In Victoriastan it depends on where the fire is but usually it’s put it out , I think it was last year there was a lightning strike in the Alpine National park in an inaccessible area surrounded by snow but green law mandated it be put out .
      Ever seen firefighters with snow gear put out a fire , neither have I !

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      Peter Fitzroy

      Fires around Port MAcquarie have been burning for more than a month, a case where it is impossible to put it out. But it fires up every few days

      09

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      Peter Fitzroy

      Buy the way, I’m not, or ever have been a fire fighter, and I’ve never ever claimed such. I have worked on management sturdiest, and in conjunction with RFS I’ve done volunteer work like manning road blocks, or searching for burnt koalas.

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Reminds me of that old song; In The Sweet Buy and Buy.

        Yes, we will meet on that beautiful ,,,,,,,

        KK

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        Peter C

        Well I am disappointed.

        I thought PF was at the Fire Front. Like Tony Abbott. Fighting Fires!

        Not to say that looking for burnt koalas isn’t worthwhile, it is.

        But Peter Fitzroy cannot answer my question because he has no direct knowledge.

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        • #
          beowulf

          Peter Fitzroy
          October 31, 2019 at 7:37 pm · Reply
          Buy the way I did old style fire fighting, back in the day.

          Failing memory? Need to get your story straight Pinocchio.

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          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            yep, as part of the research, but I’m not a fire fighter.

            04

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              Peter your comprehension skills are showing again.

              Old “style fire-fighting” and “fire fighter” are not the same?

              You, comrade are a sham.

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              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                I don’t consider a couple of days working with fire crews in the blue mountains as qualifying me to call myself a fire fighter. I’ve change oil and spark plugs in my car, but I’m not a car mechanic. I’ve cooked meals for my family, but I’m not a chef.

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                AndyG55

                PF, caught in a big fat LIE,

                Yet again

                So funny !!

                11

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          Peter Fitzroy

          So to answer your question. PeterW

          The need to completely extinguish a fire depends on;
          1. is it endangering life, property of infrastructure if it is not completely doused
          2. does it have the potential to endan life, property or infrastructure if it is not completely doused
          3. are there sufficient resources to do the job (as you know, it is combing the fireground for smouldering stumps, tree limbs etc that requires a lot of effort)
          4. Is there an ecological reason to completely douse the fire?

          Most of the time, a fire is listed as controlled, when it is offering no immediate danger to man or the ecology, but it is not out.
          So my answer is mostly no – there is no need to completely douse a fire.

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      Mostly, if you can at reasonable cost (that excludes aircraft), you put the fire out so you can go back to your job/bed. Or if property is threatened, you protect it. Sometimes, if you can contain it safely and the weather is ok for a few days out, you let a bit of forest burn to reduce risk for later. Re attack method, the oldtimer adage is you manage fire in mild weather with water, you fight fire in actual catastrophic conditions (45 plus C, wind over 40km per hour), with matches. You can’t beat the heat, so you have to remove the fuel out of the fire triangle.

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    And down here in Victoristan we’ve had several weeks of endless rain and freezing cold. Mossvale Park that normally floods once, or at most twice a year (a minor second one), has had its third full flood. We’ve had over 120mm of rain and the ground got so soft around one of our gums that last night it came down and nearly flattened our neighbour’s garage, but luckily no car or other valuables inside.

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    pat

    followup to article I posted on Jo’s previous thread. Barilaro was just on Bolt Report, disputing the union’s claims. AAP give unions plenty of voice in the following – read all:

    13 Nov: MacarthurAdvertiser: Barilaro pours more fuel on bushfire spat
    by Steven Trask, AAP
    Deputy Premier John Barilaro has poured fuel on an explosive spat with a union after his party was accused of hindering bushfire preparations across NSW with “crippling” staff cuts.
    A political blame game has broken – even as bushfires continue to rage – with Mr Barilaro criticising the National Parks and Wildlife Service for not doing enough hazard reduction in the lead-up to the fire season.

    The Public Service Association, which represents park rangers, hit back by saying Mr Barilaro was “tastelessly blaming” public servants after his government slashed staff numbers.
    The PSA says there’s been a 35 per cent cut to fire-trained positions in the state’s national parks which are now being managed by “skeleton staff”.

    But the NSW government says the number of firefighters in national parks has increased from 1050 in 2011 to 1226 in 2019.
    Mr Barilaro refused to back down when he was grilled in state parliament on Wednesday.
    “The truth of the matter is that we still live with (former premier) Bob Carr’s legacy – lock up the forest and let it burn,” he said.
    “I make no apology for my comments. The PSA went out and fibbed in relation to the reduction of rangers dealing with fires in national parks.”

    Mr Barilaro in a separate statement said he wouldn’t be lectured by those pushing a “green-left ideology”.
    “There are things to learn out of every bushfire emergency and what’s clear is that more hazard reduction work needs to be done during times where it is safe to do so,” he told AAP.
    “We can’t be dictated to by a green-left ideology that advocates locking up bushland and leaving it.”…READ ON
    https://www.macarthuradvertiser.com.au/story/6491091/barilaro-pours-more-fuel-on-bushfire-spat/?cs=9397

    Bolt also played hyper emotional audio of Trioli re the following:

    WILL RUSSELL CHECK VIRGINIA AND HER TEAR-STAINED PAPER?Herald Sun – 22 mins ago
    The ABC has a fact-check unit with RMIT University, headed by Russell Skelton.
    What chance it will correct Skelton’s wife Virginia Trioli after her emoting yesterday?: (Trioli) “Imagine the tear-stained piece of paper that 11,000 scientists signed last week, telling us that it’s almost too late, we are now in the era of catastrophic climate change”…

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    John PAK

    The last wild-fire thru’ Berambing, (Blue Mtns NSW) was ’94. Down in the gullies there are 3ft diameter fallen trees and it’s hard walking for the tangled mass of 25 years of fallen material. Mt Haystack’s domed top has a 6ft dense thicket capping it which is very tricky to walk over the top of.

    In any bush setting each successive year adds to the fuel load and right now all we need is a week of hot dry wind off the interior and a lightning strike and away it will go again. It’s hardly surprising we are seeing bad fires given our mis-management of the landscape.

    Cook mentioned the perpetual fires and Banks wrote about scorched trunks so it’s part of Australia. Irrespective of causes we have to adapt.
    We need (in no particular order): serious fire-breaks; fire education; under-storey thinning; leaf litter burning near buildings; proper sprinklers and fire mitigation in prone areas; patchwork burns in rotation as the locals did for millenia and; sensible building codes with fewer regulations.

    Kevin Long has an interesting take at thelongview.com.au
    It’s a bit grim but our governments would do well to heed his information.

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      OriginalSteve

      Most govts are thick headed, and only learn via pain…whether directly or when the population lets fly upon them in some manner.

      I suspect the best approach is to keep the pressure on them to do more controlled burns.

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        robert rosicka

        Original Steve Labor says hold my beer to that claim .
        The voters are just an annoying hindrance.

        10

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          OriginalSteve

          I think we need to get rid of compulsory voting, then the ones who actually care will turn up.

          The problem is most australians are apathetic, so the powers that be knew they couldnt maintain a form of legitimacy if people didnt have vote.

          So now when people “vote” all they are doing is maintaining a broken and rigged method for keeping the elites noses in the trough. Clever really….

          10

    • #
      Mike Jonas

      One more need: replace flammable vegetation (eucalypts etc) with fire-retardant (lots to choose from including natives) over a meaningful area around houses, roads, etc.

      The highway near here has been planted with gums in the central reservation. Local firies are incensed but no-one listens.

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    pat

    Bolt also called out hypocrite Branson for the following:

    12 Nov: SMH: ‘Australia must stop selling coal’: Branson calls for climate ‘revolution’
    By Matt Bungard
    English billionaire Sir Richard Branson has called on Australia to become a world leader in the renewable energy space, saying that “if you do the right thing, you’ll find in the years to come you’ll get the benefits”.
    As NSW braces itself for one of the worst days of bushfires ever recorded, the Virgin Group founder spoke about its connection to climate change on Tuesday morning in Sydney.

    “I’m afraid that Australia must stop selling coal overseas to China and it must stop using coal in Australia,” he told the Herald. “It is the most damaging thing that it can do.”
    “I would suggest the Australian government create a revolution in clean energy, which can create thousands more jobs than coal could ever produce.”

    Branson is in Australia to promote the launch of a partnership between Virgin Australia and his cruise line Virgin Voyages. Last year, Branson criticised Australia’s coal industry and likened the issue of climate change to World War III…

    “That’s something I’ll be talking to the Australian government about,” he said, mentioning that renowned Australian scientist Tim Flannery had also reached out to him praising the idea…READ ON
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-must-stop-selling-coal-branson-calls-for-climate-revolution-20191112-p539p8.html

    also on Bolt, Labor advisor, Claire March, spouting about the following Morgan poll, and talking of bushfires/CAGW connections!

    4 Nov: Roy Morgan: Environmental issues seen as the biggest problem facing Australia – for the first time since February 2011
    New in-depth research from Roy Morgan shows a record high 41% of Australians regard Environmental problems as the major concern facing Australia – up 17% points since June…
    Environmental problems are also clearly regarded as the biggest concern facing the World. An unchanged 46% of Australians mentioned some form of Environmental concern as the most important problem facing the World – nearly three times as many as the 16% who mentioned Economic problems.
    This is the first time Environmental problems have topped the list of concerns facing both Australia and the World since February 2011 when massive floods hit Queensland, and its capital city Brisbane, as well as soon after the devastating Black Saturday bush fires in 2009 that killed over 170 Victorians.

    These are the key findings from a special Roy Morgan online survey of 1,054 Australians aged 14+ who were asked: “What do you think is the most important problem facing the World today?” and then “What do you think is the most important problem facing Australia today?” …

    Global warming and Climate change dominate global concerns…READ ON
    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8184-most-important-problems-facing-australia-world-october-2019-201910280658

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    pat

    12 Nov: Reuters: Record Arctic cold may hit U.S. Gulf Coast, damage crops
    Reporting by Brad Brooks in Austin, Texas
    AUSTIN, Texas: An Arctic blast pummeling the northern United States on Monday is forecast to break more than 400 cold-temperature records in the next 48 hours and bring a potentially crop-damaging freeze to Texas and other Gulf states.
    Every state east of the Mississippi River, with the exception of Florida, is expected to see at least one record-cold temperature through Wednesday, said Alex Lamers, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

    “We’re seeing the potential for a freeze all the way down to the central Gulf Coast region, from Texas eastward,” he said by telephone from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. “That is several weeks earlier than the average first freeze for the region, and that could have an impact on crops.”…
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather/record-arctic-cold-may-hit-us-gulf-coast-damage-crops-idUSKBN1XL2LY

    12 Nov: CBS: Arctic blast brings record-breaking temperatures across the U.S.
    By Justin Carissimo, Victoria Albert and Peter Martinez; with AP
    A dangerous deep freeze is about to get worse for millions of Americans as it widens and tightens its grip. From the Great Lakes to New England, people are digging out from deep snow.
    At least five people died on icy roads, including an 8-year-old girl in Kansas. Sleet-slicked roads caused a 50 car pileup near Youngstown, Ohio, that left two people critically injured. Forty miles west in Hudson, multiple collisions caused cars to spin off the road. Overnight, a bus carrying seven passengers landed on its side after the driver lost control just south of Syracuse, New York.

    In Buffalo, New York, nearly nine inches of snow broke a 77-year old record. Parts of northern Michigan saw upwards of 30 inches of snowfall.
    Steam rose from Lake Superior in Minnesota as the temperature there hovered around zero and Chicago set a new record low at seven degrees. But an even more unusual sight was snow as far south as Richmond, Virginia and Nashville, Tennessee…

    Weather officials said three cities in Arkansas and Tennessee have created or tied record low temperatures as a wintry weather system crawled through the mid-South region. The National Weather Service said the Tennessee cities of Memphis and Jackson recorded low temperatures for the date Tuesday of 21 degrees and 19 degrees, respectively.
    Forecasters said the prior record in Memphis was 23 and 21 in Jackson.
    NWS also said that Jonesboro, Arkansas, tied a record low of 20 degrees…
    Record-low temperatures set in 6 Kansas cities…

    “The coldest we can be”
    Weather service meteorologist Kevin Birk said the high for the Windy City is expected to reach 21 degrees, which is seven degrees lower than the previous record set for Nov. 12. Low temperatures in Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa could drop into the single digits, according to Birk.
    “This is an air mass that’s more typical for the middle of January than mid-November,” said Birk. “It is pretty much about the coldest we can be this time of year (and) it could break records all over the region.”…
    https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/arctic-blast-snow-record-breaking-cold-temperatures-across-us-flights-cancelled-4-dead-weather/

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    pat

    BBC at least has a report of sorts; can’t find anything on theirABC, SMH etc. Guardian has a brief AP report dated 10 Nov:

    13 Nov: BBC: Arctic blast: US temperatures plummet to record lows
    Daily records have been set in states including Kansas and Illinois. Forecasters say hundreds of records could be matched or broken this week…
    It warned that the cold front would make it feel like “the middle of winter” rather than November for much of the eastern two-thirds of the country…
    Rare snowfall was even seen in the Texas town of Brownsville, on the US-Mexico border.
    NWS meteorologist Kevin Birk said the air mass was “more typical for the middle of January than mid-November.”
    “It is pretty much about the coldest we can be this time of year [and] it could break records all over the region,” he added, according to AP news agency…
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50399637

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    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Words now in the Minstry of Truth’s Banned List:

      Cold, freezing, snow, blizzard, temperatures plummeting, record lows, hypothermia, minus/negative…

      Our ‘long-range’ weather forecast was just on the radio – it’s as if mountains don’t exist anymore – no mention of snow nor sub-zero temps, simply either “fine” or “rain” (or ‘East Coast’ and ‘West Coast’). I can see why farmers are feeling somewhat left out of the (city) equation.

      10

  • #
    PeterW.

    Respected fire-manager, Roger Underwood, asks “who benefits” from our oversized bushfires.

    https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/11/the-bushfire-industrial-complex/

    60

    • #
      George4

      Interesting.
      I have always believed that water bombing aircraft are a waste of money that could be spent much more effectively on prevention.
      But the politicians and media love them for the dramatic publicity.

      30

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Must have missed the Greens press conference today where a claim was made that after fighting the fires the firemen go home and beat their wives !
    Was just shown on Paul Murray

    40

  • #
    PeterW.

    According to the IEA (IIRC) here are 1600 coal-fired power stations under construction or in planning around the world. In the foreseeable future, the increase in fossil fuel useage in the Second and Third world economies will be so great that even if Australia, the US, Europe and Japan went zero-carb tomorrow, the world’s CO2 production would continue to rise.

    This being the case, I have yet to hear any of the panic-merchants explain how we are going to reverse AGW and solve our bushfire problem by doing so. The world is not going to stop so we can get off.

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    Lionell Griffith

    There is a herd of elephants in the dining room is being ignored. The fact is that if excess fuel is allowed to accumulate, the fires burn hotter and tend to damage or kill any bush or tree the fire encounters. Which naturally give a head start on the next cycle of hot fires.

    This insanity fully supports the governments natural tendency to embark on projects that fail so they can do more of the same, increase the size and power of government, and spend still more money on even more failed projects. Rinse and repeat until the society thereby governed collapses into a pile of ashes.

    This enterprise is well advanced and may have reached the point of no return. At least in part to the failure to address the herd of elephants in the dining room.

    The bottom line is you cannot overestimate the ability of far too many humans to evade reality and try to hope and wish their way to success. It never works and it only pretends to work by mass human sacrifice dedicated to the mass delusion. Run out of sacrificial victims and the attempt fails to achieve its stated ends. Ten thousand years of recorded history and a million years prehistory demonstrates this point.

    The elephants will be fed one way or another!

    50

  • #

    Mild days here on the midcoast…thank God. Not much heat or wind since Tuesday, though it may warm tomorrow. Many thanks to fireys, and much praise to the Sentinel and Fires Near Me websites. And to the reliable supply of electricity!

    Fires still going over a huge area, much smoke.

    But how is it that this morning’s minimum of 5C would have been a “record” low for November…but for 4.5C a few days ago and a 5.5C on the morning of last Thursday’s flare-up day?

    Why the very low minima? Why am I needing the down on top of the wool two weeks out from summer? 4.5C? Really?

    30

    • #
      Annie

      We have the woodstove going still!

      20

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘Why the very low minima?’

      Its a global cooling signal, meandering jet stream and blocking highs all over the place. The collapse of the subtropical ridge appears to be associated with a quiet sun, but the jury is still out on that.

      Theoretically the first half of the coming decade should be cool and wet, but on the way there we should experience extreme variability in midlatitudes. A few heatwave days followed by a longer cold air outbreaks from Antarctica.

      10

  • #
    Sandy

    Quadrant Online has been particularly good on chronicling the Green lies about fire. Recommended.

    20

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