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No sign that Man-Made CO2 does anything to the cost of disasters

Roger Pielke Jnr in Forbes:

Everything You Hear About Billion-Dollar Disasters Is Wrong

First NOAA did the billion dollar disaster graph and forgot that it was just a artificially truncated proxy for inflation. Then after they got caught, they adjusted for inflation, but are still forgetting, somehow, that more people live in the US, and GDP has risen, so there are more assets to be destroyed. The storms have a larger target and more chance of “scoring”.

Here’s the ominous, grant-raising NOAA Count of U.S. billion-dollar disasters, 1980 to 2016.

Billion dollar disasters, Graphed.

Tried to graph disasters, accidentally graphed their own incompetence

 

Luckily there’s one man left in academia who hasn’t been sacked yet. Roger Pielke is helping NOAA out again and has calculated a meaningful graph instead.

Obviously, carbon emissions have gone to hell in a Saturn 4 Rocket, but in the USA it hasn’t made any visible impact in the last third of a century:

 

Cost of disasters, floods, storms, Roger, Piekle Jnr

Cost of disasters, floods, storms, Roger, Pielke Jnr. Data:  data from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (GDP) and Arizona State University (hazard losses).

Is it just incompetence, or is the NOAA team really succeeding (but as a Public Relations Agency pretending to do science).

Pielke puts this as kindly as he has to, to keep his job:

To their credit, early on NOAA recognized that there were methodological issues in its approach to collecting and sharing disaster loss data, and commissioned a study of the dataset and methodology, which was peer-reviewed and published in 2013. That study acknowledges that, “the billion-dollar dataset is only adjusted for the CPI [consumer price index, representing inflation] over time, not currently incorporating any changes in exposure (e.g., as reflected by shifts in wealth or population).” NOAA admitted that the lack of such adjustments had implications for the increasing trend in the count of billion-dollar disasters: “The magnitude of such increasing trends is greatly diminished when applied to data normalized for exposure.”

So we see the usual official split personality — call it “two faced”. In public “it’s a disaster!”. But NOAA admits the flaws in fine print that no one ever reads and it will never mention unless someone spots a failing. Then it becomes a “get out of jail” card to play. Plausible deniability. Well we did say that.

Here’s the NOAA fine-print:

Not surprisingly, due to such methodological concerns, the NOAA study concluded: “it is difficult to attribute any part of the trends in losses to climate variations or change, especially in the case of billion-dollar disasters.”

Here’s the NOAA public face, where they overcome that difficulty:

On its website today NOAA says: “Climate change is also playing a role in the increasing frequency of some types of extreme weather that lead to billion-dollar disasters.”

The more money governments spend on science the worse it gets.

Science might progress faster if the government just stopped funding it.

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Rating: 9.6/10 (67 votes cast)
No sign that Man-Made CO2 does anything to the cost of disasters, 9.6 out of 10 based on 67 ratings

172 comments to No sign that Man-Made CO2 does anything to the cost of disasters

  • #
    TdeF

    This is not science. It is politics played by scientists.

    221

  • #

    I’ve seen an huge rise is desperation from the climate worriers. Every event is being pushed to its limits as evidence of catastrophe on its way, yet the climate change industry knows the public is not buying it anymore.

    An entire generation has grown up and are now adults, yet none of the fear mongering over their lifetime has come to be realised. None of the 20-30 so-called tipping points have meant anything.

    I think that there are a lot of closet sceptics about, very much like those ‘Labor’ voters that had everyone certain that Morrison would lose badly. The climate industry knows this and are in a panic.

    210

  • #
    Latus Dextro

    The same point made abundantly clear by Tony Heller: There Is No Climate Crisis
    There are only the UN Trojan horses of climatism and safe-ism, two mechanisms employed solely to impose, regulate, control and administer the lives of all peoples across the World, an unhinged neo-Marxist corporatist globalist grab for unfettered power by 2030.
    THE GAME IS UP. You Won’t BELIEVE the Epic FAIL Surrounding Giant GRETA THUNBERG Mural

    See the picture and data of an extremely BENIGN World favouring the plentiful, the peaceful and the prosperous.
    See the contrast of globalist ideology: nothing more nor less than a societal wrecking ball, a grab for power and the imposition of neo-Marxist imbued redistributive socialism.

    *CO2 emissions by fuel type since 1850 — dramatically UP (3:03)
    *NASA shows a greening Earth, CO2 fertilisation — UP (1:47)
    *Wheat yields across Europe since 1850 — dramatically UP (3:38)
    *Long term trends in cereal yields Chile (S.hemisphere) — dramatically UP (3:57)
    *Share of global population under-nourished — dramatically DOWN (4:10)
    *World population living in extreme poverty — dramatically DOWN (4:20)
    *Literate and illiterate World population — dramatically DOWN (4:43)
    *Life expectancy since 1770 — dramatically UP (4:50)
    *Global natural disaster death rates / all natural disasters — dramatically DOWN (5:00)
    *No recorded acceleration in sea level rise (tide gauges) — NO change in rate
    *Unprecedented hurricane drought (14:37) — dramatically DOWN
    *US landfalling hurricanes since 1850 — dramatically DOWN (15:19 & 15:31)
    *Number of days above 90F since late 1920′s — dramatically DOWN (16:45)
    *Contiguous US precipitation, rising trend since 1900 — UP (17:31)
    *US temperature NASA 1999, cooling trend since 1930′s — DOWN (20:50)
    *US temperature (adjusted) NASA 2019, rising trend since 1930′s — UP (20:56)
    *Average monthly temperatures across US since 1895 (recorded v post hoc adjusted) — data fiddling (21:13)

    210

    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      The Greta mural was painted with spray paint.

      We’re gonna need a bigger ocean to cross before we save the planet now …

      Spray Paint Ingredients -

      • Acetone
      • Liquefied Petroleum Gas
      • Xylene
      • n-Butyl Acetate
      • Methyl Ethyl Ketone
      • Propylene Glycol Monobutyl Ether
      • Ethylbenzene
      • Magnesium Silicate
      • Carbon Black

      https://www.sentryair.com/blog/ductless-spray-booth/the-hazards-of-spray-paint-fumes/

      150

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        We should commission someone to create “Greta, the Musical”……

        Mind you, 2 hours of “How dare you” might be a tiresome…..also hard to see the stage when illumination is only via glow worm…..

        :-)

        90

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        You forgot: Contains Artificial Colours

        unless, of course, they were sourced from 97% pure unicorn rainbow pixie dust, guaranteed methane-free.

        Truly re : greta : bull.

        80

        • #
          Latus Dextro

          I see the globalist NATS tried to amend the zero carbon bill with at least the pretence of a smidgin of sense. All amendments rejected by Winston Peters, the vapid self-absorbed demagogue who signed the UN Global Migration Compact in Marrakesh last December.
          Christos. People in NZ are so comfortably asleep under their consumer satiated dependent veil of social narcosis.

          20

          • #
            Greg in NZ

            Soymon Brutches? Judas Collins? Puller Benefit?

            B-grade actors the lot of ‘em, and Team Cinders, and Shane ‘Redneck’ Ngati-Jones. And as for your friend, Chancellor-to-be of the Climate Inquisition (?)

            Maybe N.Z. could stand for No Zero! Or No Zombies! Hopefully the band keeps playing as the unsinkable Titanic goes down…

            10

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Travis:
        Not the dreaded CARBON BLACK! Say it ain’t so!

        Incidentally not all spray paints would include all these. Ethylbenzene is usually a minor inclusion in xylene, as separating it out is uneconomic. Magnesium silicate is usually called Talc. There isn’t any mention of pigments, possibly because titanium dioxide comes from beach sands, and possibly because they don’t want questions about those pink and yellow tones achieved by SYNTHETIC pigments.

        40

      • #
        John F. Hultquist

        Try ‘railroad car graffiti’ in an images search.

        https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3349/3510901002_df8ed5e0f9_z.jpg?zz=1

        11

  • #
    Drapetomania

    I wish they would not use the inane term “Climate change”..
    It is meaningless term from the leaders of Oceania hence used by the chattering classes who think they know what it means..but dont.
    NASA should use the term “Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming” which means something…sort of.
    Still seeking a person who cares about “climate change” and is off the grid and doesnt fly or drive or own cars..
    Never found one…their idiotic hypocrisy never ceases to amaze me :)

    230

  • #
    JohnM

    I’m reasonably certain both charts are confusing.

    NOAA’s chart implies a dramatic increase in severe storms and flooding aka hurricanes and tropical storms. Yet, the cost of a disaster means these storms struck populated areas prone to flooding. Climate Change doesn’t steer hurricanes- weather patterns do. Also, disasters increase as population increases.

    Using percentage of GDP simply shows the ability to pay for the disasters.

    32

    • #
      TdeF

      That is true, but if you measure cost of damage you have to scale somehow with population, cost of damage, amount of infrastructure, ability to build and repair. Consider hurricane damage to a pacific island with no fixed infrastructure, roads, houses, sewerage, water reticulation, power, white goods. Leaving out loss of life and trauma, what is the actual damage to paradise? The next day you can fish again.

      Scaling by the cost and ability to repair is also scaling by the real significance of the loss. To not scale is to deceive.

      It is a principle of science to measure things relatively to assess significance. And NOAA know this, which is why the graph is either amazingly naive or culpably deceitful. Another hockey stick showing our success in building stuff, not increased power of storms.

      90

    • #
      sophocles

      JohnM:
      Tropical Cyclones (which includes typhoons and hurricanes) are caused by the Solar Wind winding up the planet’s ionosphere. The Solar Wind is also a significant contributor to the weather patterns you blame for steering them.

      None of it is influenced by humanity’s emissions. Ergo, there is no Climate Change involved, just climate variation.

      50

    • #
      R.B.

      Its a proxy for more to destroy due to more people with more wealth. Assumptions are that the amount built, replaced bought etc that will be damaged is proportional to GDP. Sort of like tree rings are assumed to be good proxies for temperature or summer growing season. One is reasonable, the other not so much. A bit subjective.

      00

    • #
      Latus Dextro

      See #3
      The same point made abundantly clear by Tony Heller: There Is No Climate Crisis
      *Global natural disaster death rates / all natural disasters — dramatically DOWN (5:00)

      00

  • #
    Another Ian

    Hi Jo

    Typos in a couple of places

    Piekle puts this as kindly

    ——-
    Ouch! Fixed. Thanks. It was late… — Apologies to Roger. – Jo

    10

  • #
    Brian the Engineer

    The Larsen Ice Shelf is a misdirection too. One cause of the fracturing of the Larsen ice shelf doesn’t seem to get a mention. The tectonic plate between Antarctica and Southern tip of South America is an extrusion of the Pacific Plate between the continents. This extrusion is wedging the remnant Andean fold in Antarctica such that it is squeezing the Larsen Ice Shelf. The only way for these tectonic forces to be released is when the tensile stresses orthogonal to the compression force in the shelf exceeds the tensile strength of the ice sheet and the ice sheet cracks off the edge of the shelf. A diagram of this tectonic extrusion zone can be found here.
    https://parkerknowledge.wordpress.com/originofcontinents-01/

    110

    • #
      Brian

      Thanks engineering type Brian. The other thing worth mentioning is that Western coast of Antarctica is over the largest volcanic province on Earth and as a result of tectonic influences the the magma is expanding towards the surface. This has caused a warming in parts of the west of some 2 degrees Celsius but any melt effects are well and truly overshadowed by the increasing snow/ice mass across Antarctica.

      50

      • #
        sophocles

        in other words, start up a volcano under the ice … and … the ice melts.

        40

      • #
        Brian the Engineer

        Yes it is the tectonic plate movement that has caused all of the undersea volcanoes in this area to exist. This certainly is a factor in regard to melting some of the ice sheet but the forces that drove up the Andes are the greater influence. Realistically no thickness of ice sheet in this area could resist the forces acting on the remnant Antarctic Andes.

        10

        • #
          sophocles

          I would use “sub-ice cap” and “sub-glacial” volcanoes.
          Some scientists appeared very surprised when they discovered a large (c. 90 volcanoes) volcanic province under West Antarctica’s ice sheets in or around 2017

          https://www.exopolitics.org/scientists-confirm-volcanoes-melting-antarcticas-ice-sheets/

          Jo had posted on these “discoveries” here at about the same time — maybe even earlier, I can’t remember, it will be in the blog index if you look — so we were right onto that bit of melting, scoffing at the claims in the general press that the melting was all supposed to be caused by Southern Ocean Warming. Yeah, right…. not.

          10

  • #
    Zigmaster

    The only critical factors relevant in relation to determining whether there is a worsening bushfire trend are lives lost, kilometres burnt , not cost. If kilometres burnt is not increasing then fires are not getting worse. If lives lost is not increasing then fires are not getting worse ( especially as population density is increasing). Cost as a measure is actually irrelevant.

    And the bigger issue is that even if they could establish a trend how is there any link to CO2.
    And the biggest issue is that even if there was a link how will building wind farms and attaching solar panels to houses make any difference. In fact because of a number of recorded incidents one could argue that these renewable solutions may lead to increased fire risks both directly and through the requirement for increased maintenance and extension of the grid.

    If one looks at the issues in California the network certainly was a culprit in recent fires putting the commercial viability of the provider at risk.

    111

  • #
    tom0mason

    “… but are still forgetting, somehow, that more people live in the US, and GDP has risen, …”

    And they are forgetting the massive amount of growth in GDP since 1980 has happened in the Indonesia, India, and Bangladesh meaning that when a NATURAL disaster occurs in these countries then the capital loss is now so much higher.

    Indonesia 4th most populous nation — GDP per capita has risen from $823 in 2000 to $3,932 in 2018 — https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/indonesia/overview
    ~~~~~~~~~~
    India Between 2011-15, more than 90 million people escaped extreme poverty and improved their living standards thanks to robust economic growth. … extreme poverty dropping from 46 percent to an estimated 13.4 percent over the two decades before 2015. Growth is projected to be 6.0 percent this fiscal year and expected to rise to 6.9 percent in 2020/21 and to 7.2 percent in the following year. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/overview
    ~~~~~~~~~~
    Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in reducing poverty, supported by sustained economic growth. Based on the international poverty line of $1.90 (using purchasing power parity exchange rate) a day, it reduced poverty from 44.2 percent in 1991 to 14.8 percent in 2016/17.

    Progress was underpinned by steady growth in GDP, which averaged 6.5 percent in the last decade (according to official estimates). Rapid growth enabled Bangladesh to reach the lower middle-income country status in 2015. In 2018, Bangladesh fulfilled all three eligibility criteria for graduation from the UN’s Least Developed Countries (LDC) list for the first time and is on track for graduation in 2024. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/bangladesh/overview

    In 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, caused six of the Maldives’ islands to be completely destroyed, and fourteen more rendered uninhabitable. Total damages was estimated close to $460 million, which was nearly 62% of the Maldive Islands’ GDP. Image how much more that bill could be now if a natural disaster struck, with it’s newly upgraded $800m Male International Airport.

    As all these ‘developing’ countries turn to some form of capitalism to make their nations wealthier, then the value of losses from natural disasters will rise year on year.

    60

  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    Why not pick something that is not the cause if your method requires your proposals to fail? It is precisely because CO2 does not have the prophesied effect that it was selected. That way, any proposal based upon the notion is sure to fail giving adequate reason to do more of the same at a still higher cost. Which itself will fail giving rise to still more doomed to failure proposals at a still higher cost.

    In this day an age, it is the seriousness of the charge that counts. Evidence of guilt is optional. If the charge is serious enough, no evidence is required. The charge is sufficient in and of itself to assign guilt and punishment.

    Destroying the earth is about as serious as charges can get. Hence proof or even a suggestion of a believable indication is not required. Guilt is established and all that is left to do is to execute the guilty. That such an approach is insane and a gross violation of justice is beside the point. So as they say, “the science is settled!”

    90

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      OT but kind of related – we have a spate of similar foolishness currently with reverse proof of innocence required.

      The latest being the ability in N.S.W. to photograph people in their cars and use basic image recognition to determine if you were using a “cell phone” while driving.
      Presumably it can detect whether its actually phone or a purse or wallet or small book…but I digress. The image would be limited resolution and usually infra red.

      Now the catch here is if you contest the fine, you have to, in a reverse of democracy, *prove* you weren’t on the phone.
      Unless you run a camera on the interior of your car ( which is excessive and repugnant and a form of having to defend yourself from govt ), how do you do prove you aren’t at fault?
      More to the point, why should you have to?
      I dont dispute phone usage while driving is dangerous, but thats not the issue.

      Money for jam, but worse, a free for all form of legalized money making b*stardry?

      Its actually a disturbing development.

      That said, we also have reverse onus of proof with random breath testing for drivers – your’e considered guilty until you prove your innocence, by blowing in a device they provide.
      Refuse to participate and get thrown in jail……

      Is that democracy?

      No.

      But it also seem to illustrate the mindset of govt currently that it thinks it can, and weve seen this with the climate nonsense, that might is right./

      02

      • #
        WXcycles

        Refuse to participate and get thrown in jail…… Is that democracy?

        Why are you bringing ‘democracy’ into it? It’s about law, not voting. Democracies have Laws and you don’t have the right to refuse to give name, birth date and address. You also have to have a registration and licence to drive, and part of that is being subject to the traffic laws, on e which is random breath-testing of drivers. And why would you even refuse to be breath-tested if you haven’t been drinking? Nothing is perfect, but I don;t want to share the road with drunks, pot-heads and people using mobile phones, playing with a notebook, rolling a cigarette, or eating a ham sandwich.

        20

  • #
    robert rosicka

    This Facebook posting shows the undergrowth in a national park and gives a picture of the maintenance regime of the park and tracks in the area .
    There was one swear word and it goes for over 5 minutes .

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10215130419909504&id=1102105800

    40

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Also slightly OT but relevant this story is about the warnings given about the fires , no mention of climate change and it’s from their ABC .

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-14/traditional-owners-predicted-bushfire-disaster/11700320

      60

      • #
        Dennis

        There are areas where seasonal burning tradition is now being applied successfully.

        But too many areas are overgrown, dense undergrowth and imported weed vines covering the tree canopies notably along the coastal strip and Great Dividing Range.

        30

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          Madeira vine is a particularly hard to control garden escapee, as is morning glory, to mention but 2

          25

        • #
          Chad

          Anyone know what these climber vines are that cover much of the forrest canopy on the South Coast.?
          They are like dense green carpets that grow for kms that actually look like they may smother any ground fire ?

          10

          • #
            Peter Fitzroy

            without a description?
            most common is the aforementioned madeira vine, followed by Bridal creeper – for the exoticx
            most common natives are Wonga vine, closely followed by Dodder laurel

            Paste this into search engine Weedy vines on the South Coast – Bega Valley Shire Council

            12

          • #
            beowulf

            As Peter said.

            For Mid-North Coast/Hunter we have Cat’s Claw Creeper, Madeira Vine, Balloon Vine, Potato Vine, Bridal Creeper (an asparagus) — all smother rainforest and invade wet sclerophyll given the chance. It should be similar for the South Coast. They’d be a starting point for you.

            Wingham Brush near Taree was almost lost to exotic vines until they started using Roundup on the cut stems to poison the vines in the 80s/90s . . . to the horror of local activists. Big ructions when they got out the Roundup drum. It took 10 years of regular applications plus occasional follow-ups to eradicate the Madeira which has aerial tubers that can stay viable for 11 years.

            I’ve surveyed soil under Balloon Vine (has papery fruit capsules that look like gooseberries) that was infested with 2,000 seeds per m2 ready to sprout with the next rain or flood. It climbs many metres into the trees and smothers everything, although it is a lighter vine so it doesn’t also crush and collapse trees like Madeira and Cat’s Claw do. Madeira and Cat’s Claw will both climb to 30m, so few trees are safe.

            If it’s ground vines in damp or shady conditions it’s likely to be Wandering Dew (if it has a small white flower) which forms a dense mat up to half a metre thick. If it has a small blue flower it will likely be Native Wandering Dew, which is OK. Some of the climbing vines will also form a ground mat where there are insufficient trees to colonise.

            10

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Great pictures for the edge effect.

        14

        • #
          robert rosicka

          Not sure you deserve the red thumbs here fitzy and yes escapee foliage does add to the problem , it’s interesting that trials in the Wombat forest have shown that a three year fire rotation keeps the undergrowth in check .

          00

      • #
        el gordo

        Let us resurrect a labour intensive green army, to eliminate undergrowth during the wet years preceding the next drought.

        Wet and dry appears to be a cyclic phenomenon.

        20

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          They have had mixed success, some proving very capable, others only here for the attendance mark

          24

          • #
            AndyG55

            ” only here for the attendance mark”

            ah , your reason for existence. !!

            10

          • #
            el gordo

            ‘ … others only here for the attendance mark’

            We could import seasonal workers to clean up the bush around properties and national parks, during wet years to avoid problems. Low intensity fires, as practiced by the pre-European inhabitants, should give us the right result.

            10

        • #
          robert rosicka

          If the government can’t do enough hazard reduction it’s time to open up tracks that have been closed and allow firewood gathering within 100 metres either side of the tracks , all tracks .
          Logging should be allowed and the leftovers should be left for the public for one season then burnt .
          Not whole scale logging but in coups and beside roads and powerlines .

          20

      • #
        glen Michel

        It has to be said that anyone with the slightest bit of observational nous would know this was going to happen. I guess the ABC type could dig the “mourning ” for country bit as they are lost outside of Ultimo and understand nothing. Really, the whole media is getting right off on this bushfire stuff. Wait till mid next week when the heat and wind really goes off!

        40

        • #
          WXcycles

          Indeed, the heat was very mild this week, it’s forecast to be a bit higher next week on the east coast ranges, but still far from extreme temp or wind levels. Frankly they’ve jumped-the-shark with the “catastrophic” conditions classification.

          30

  • #
    Maptram

    And the $ trillions being spent to repair the damage after disasters most likely doesn’t include the $ trillions being spent to stop climate change

    100

  • #
    Kneel

    “The more money governments spend on science the worse it gets.”

    Ignoring all the science, how about outcomes?
    How much did, say, Germany spend on renew-a-bubbles, and how much have they reduced their CO2 output?
    Billions and negative (an increase!) are the answers.
    If you think CO2 needs to be reduced, how about doing something that helps instead of making things worse?
    Spend the billions on LENR and ITER etc – get us cheap, almost limitless power that’s only “pollution” is helium and construction “emissions”. 20+ years of reliable power for the same build “emissions” as a 10+ years lifetime, unreliable, non-despatchable “generation”.

    90

  • #
    pat

    14 Nov: Australian: Scientists ‘careful’ in attributing fire weather signals
    by Graham Lloyd
    Scientists are reluctant to claim a definitive climate change signal in bushfires ravaging eastern Aust­ralia because of the complex factor­s involved.
    Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the University of NSW said the detection of a climate change ­signal in bushfires was still a work in progress.
    “With temperature we can ­absolutely detect a human signature behind it, but it gets more complex to get this climate signal when we include more variables,” Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick said.

    Climate models weren’t always as good for humidity and wind speed as they were for temper­ature. “We have to be careful how we attribute fire weather. We can’t say one specific fire or all the ingredients that go into fire weather are due to climate change, but we can certainly tear out that climate change has this signal in some of those ­ingredients.”
    Weather patterns in the Indian Ocean will probably be a contributing factor for this fire season. Despite weakening over the past fortnight, the Indian Ocean ­Dipole remains strongly positive…

    A report by the Climate Council said the “catastrophic, unprecedented fire conditions currently affecting NSW and Queensland have been aggravated by climate change … Bushfire risk was exacer­bated by record-breaking drought, very dry fuels and soils, and record breaking heat.”
    The Climate Council said bushfire conditions were now more dangerous than in the past.
    “The fire season has lengthened so substantially that it has ­already reduced opportunities for fuel reduction burning,” it said…READ ON
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/science/scientists-careful-in-attributing-fire-weather-signals/news-story/9043a1a8d3ae790e8ce1e840ca549938

    30

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      pat:

      She says “With temperature we can ­absolutely detect a human signature behind it” THERE GOES a True Believer in AGW but not much of a scientist.

      90

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Yet over on this side of the Tassie our Southern Alps are being “aggravated by” heavy snow (non-stop till next week) and -30C wind chill on the tops.

      Has next year’s winter arrived early, or is this year’s winter simply refusing to let go, an ‘extended season finale’, if you will.

      That miracle/evil gas can do ANYTHING you want it to… if you beLIEve!

      70

    • #
      WXcycles

      … The Climate Council said bushfire conditions were now more dangerous than in the past. …

      LOL

      Like they’re ever going to blurt-out the truth. ;-)

      30

    • #
      R.B.

      Record breaking heat is important. It implies an extremely big difference between what was experienced and what is the norm. But Dorrigo, for example, has its highest June average only 1.3°C more than the average of all Junes for its short record. Hardly going to blame a fire on CC because of that.

      00

  • #
    TdeF

    It’s fascinating that scientists are being asked to explain bushfires. Aborigines understood the process 50,000 years ago.

    So Graham Lloyd in the Australian reports that the response is about the IOD, Indian Ocean Dipole. So presumably the question is to explain why the climate favors a bushfire, when in fact it always favors a bushfire especially at this time of year in a cold/dry winter and hot/wet semi tropical climate.

    How often are we told the weather is dominated by the IOD, the PDO, La Nina and El Nino. What is left out is that the infamous climate models cannot explain or predict any of these world dominating solar induced ocean oscillations.

    You would think that the idea that these ‘models’ which fail the basic test of predicting the major forces in world climates would have been declared useless. And we know the weather models have problems with tomorrow’s weather. But we are supposed to believe these models have a great ability to predict a world temperature to a fraction of a degree? Or that they can predict bushfires or hurricanes or any major events at all.

    They are self evidently a long way from predicting much which is not obvious from isobaric charts of the last few weeks. As for +1C being a major driver of bushfires or anything, that is a leap of faith only possible for true believers. Still the questions are asked as if there is some profound scientific understanding of bushfires. The aborigines could help there. You light them.

    130

    • #
      TdeF

      About 20 years ago an American science team arrived in Australia to discover why the rainfall of Australia halved suddenly 50,000 years ago. It was big news and I was very interested in this fact. Then the news vanished and I have found no trace of the articles. The articles and the team vanished without trace. Disappeared.

      So it looks like someone discovered academically that Australia’s rainfall halved suddenly 50,000 years ago. It is a self evident fact that the megafauna vanished within a 1,000 year period coinciding with the arrival of man and fire. Even Flannery agrees and this is precisely his field. I assume the US team went home. The explanation is obvious but who were they and where was their evidence and why was this suddenly not news?

      We cannot recover the amazing giant species of kangaroo and wombat and others. We have their bones. This was a very recent mass extinction of unique species. However the big question is whether, without even terraforming or pipelines or dams, we can reestablish the vegetation which would double our rainfall? Could we do it?

      This is the problem with man made climate change. It is all negativity, an attack solely on Western society. Chinese, Indian, African, Middle Eastern, Asian are never criticized. Worse, no one is discussing how we can increase rainfall, make the rivers run, green the interior, increase the range of the forests and make Australia a better place and change our climate.

      It’s all about shutting down the factories, the power plants, the farmers, the miners and riding bicycles and getting more smashed avocado. Infantile fantasies with no solutions for anyone or anything. And scientists are asked ridiculous question like how are bushfires started and why do they burn?

      When will we have a National discussion on greening the country, making it rain more, harvesting and storing the water, growing more crops, improving the place and making life safer for everyone.

      No, it’s all about stopping things, the sole function it seems of Green government and one which has infected Labor, Liberal and even National party thinking as they ponder their one problem. Getting elected.

      90

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        TdeF:
        There’s a story there “American Scientist Team lost without trace. Was it due to Climate Change?” The ABC would love that.
        The idea of aborigines wiping out the megafauna may not sound so convincing in future as The Left try to claim “aborigines have been here for 80,000 years” and “aborigines lived in harmony with nature” which raises the questions as to why they didn’t wipe out the megafauna for 30 thousand years? (Perhaps they hadn’t invented the Spear of Mass Destruction?).

        As for actually doing something about problems you must realise that politicians (apart from that one concern about election**) are fed by the public service. They don’t want problems solved because then some of them wouldn’t be needed.
        Far better to let the problems drag on, esp. as that could lead to more staffing, hence extra remuneration.

        **Some of them, like Barnaby, can’t quite spell election.

        50

      • #
        hillbilly33

        Hi TdeF. This Ed Cook foray into Tasmania may be what you’re referring to. The late great John Daly also has a huge amount of information and many great links on his website, particularly on his ‘Still Waiting for Greenhouse’ page.

        20

        • #
          hillbilly33

          Apologies TdeF. Here’s the link.

          http://www.john-daly.com/huonpine.htm

          30

          • #
            TdeF

            Cooking up bad science, of course. There’s always a Cook involved. Like the ’97% of scientists agree’ fr*ud. 10,000 scientists surveyed and only 100, 1% selected as suitable. The 99% were largely meteorologists I expect, as that was the point of the survey.

            I cannot imagine 1.5C in a huge daily range makes any difference at all to trees but I can imagine a 50% increase in CO2 would produce a dramatic difference. Only two ingredients are needed to make trees, CO2 and H2O as as Tasmania has lots of H2O on the West Coast, you could expect a 50% increase in CO2 would spur growth 50%.

            And I would be very surprised if Tasmania in the roaring forties was not more influenced with the uninterrupted Westerly winds across the vast southern Oceans, uninterrupted except for the Falklands and Tierra del Fuego, a measure of ocean temperature which is not the same as land temperature and probably desperately needs homogenization.

            40

      • #
        Dennis

        The New South Wales Coalition Government recently signed an agreement with Israel to access their drought proofing water systems technology and for their people to advise and assist with building a similar system here.

        00

    • #
      Maptram

      I recall that some plant species, for example eucalypts, require burning in order for seeds to start germination.

      20

      • #
        TdeF

        And pine cones open under extreme heat, the surest sign that they are adapted to not only survive fire, but use it as a weapon for survival and expansion. Pines are single trunk with needle leaves and cones, coniferous. They far predate broad leaf trees like elms and oaks and plane trees. And like gum trees, fast growing, they fuel the fire with explosive resin, gum, turpentine. Combined with their speed of growth, this is built for one purpose, to take over the land.

        Unlike fruit trees of Asia, humans unfortunately cannot eat pine or gum trees. So we are in conflict but the Greens say humans are the problems. I do not need to ask which side they are on.

        70

      • #
        Another Ian

        Helps mulga too.

        Off the tree, about 5% germination

        About a minute in hot water, about 95%

        10

    • #
      Brian

      Actually Aboriginals caused the problem over tens of thousands of years, burning forest to create grassland for hunting. This changed the ecology leaving species adapted to fire, many in fact needing fire to germinate. In the event their modigication of the environment affected the monsoons and gave rise to the first man made climate change. Aboriginals did not learn to use fire to tend forests and live in harmony with nature. Nature changed to survive the Aboriginals. Cooks log book records the number of fires observed along the East coast. Some attribute this to the observation of Aboriginal camp fires whereas he was referencing bushfires.

      40

      • #
        TdeF

        The proposition was that the fires were so widespread and regular that they wiped out entire ecosystem within 1,000 years across a continent. These were the newly appointed custodians of the land revered for living in harmony with their environment and even agricultural.

        30

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    No sign that Man-Made CO2 does anything to the cost of disasters

    CO2 may be a factor but I have to suspect it’s man-made CO2 from those flapping their mouths so much about the subject that you have to deal with. Where there’s so much noise there’s usually a bad idea being defended at all costs. :-(

    20

  • #

    You know the trick by now…

    Get a fresh, new apple and compare it to an old, withered orange picked fifty years ago.

    Then say there were obviously no apples fifty years ago.

    There’s an educated audience for this sort of thing. Really. Of course, when I say educated…

    20

  • #
    TdeF

    And why does the press deny that this is a land of droughts and flooding rains and bushfires? These things are not new. The first is the climate. The last is a consequence.

    There is this fantasy idea that we live on a perfect and indulgent mother world Gaia and mankind is corrupting Eden. Like Rousseau’s fantasy of the noble savage which so affected early Christian settlers. The planet is not ideal for humans and humans are often not nice. You could make a list. City living is entirely new and completely unnatural and cities of 40 million people beyond comprehension. Any doctor will tell you humans are very poor design. Agriculture itself is very new. And Australia is an eternal challenge for human habitation and survival.

    Not according to the Greens. Somehow everything is the fault of Western democracy and the motor car and socialism, the scourge of the 20th century is on the rise again.

    60

  • #
    pat

    all over the MSM today:

    13 Nov: Yahoo: AFP: Climate change, corruption blamed for Venice flood devastation
    by Ella IDE
    VENICE: Much of Venice was underwater on Wednesday after the highest tide in 50 years ripped through the historic Italian city, beaching gondolas, trashing hotels and sending tourists fleeing through rapidly rising waters.
    Officials blamed climate change while shopkeepers on the Grand Canal raged against those who have failed to protect the UNESCO city from the high tide.
    They said corruption had repeatedly delayed a barrier protection system which could have prevented the disaster…

    “We ask the government to help us, the costs will be high,” (Venice mayor Luigi Brugnaro) tweeted. “These are the effects of climate change.”
    “The future of Venice is at stake,” he warned. “We can not live like this anymore.”
    Environment Minister Sergio Costa blamed climate change and the “tropicalisation” of violent rainfall and strong winds.
    “This is what is happening more and more often in the Mediterranean,” Costa said on Facebook.
    “Global warming will destroy our planet if we do not immediately reverse the direction.”…
    The exceptionally intense “acqua alta,” or high waters, peaked at 1.87 metres (six feet). Only once since records began in 1923 has the water crept even higher, reaching 1.94 metres in 1966…

    A massive infrastructure project called MOSE has been underway since 2003 to protect the city, but it has been plagued by cost overruns, corruption scandals and delays…
    https://news.yahoo.com/devastation-venice-exceptional-tide-095855792.html

    13 Nov: US News & World Report: Concerns are rising over the safety of Venice’s mosaics and artworks after the city’s famed St. Mark’s Basilica flooded Tuesday. It was the sixth time the historic crypt has flooded.

    13 Nov: TheLocalItaly: AFP: Venice flooding: St Mark’s priceless mosaics drowned in sewage
    The city stands on wooden piles driven by their thousands into the mud, but rising sea levels and heavy cruise ship traffic have eaten away at the surrounding marshes and mudbanks. That leaves the gradually sinking Serenissima more vulnerable to the whims of the Adriatic sea…
    https://www.thelocal.it/20191113/flooding-drowns-st-marks-priceless-mosaics-in-sewage

    14 Nov: NationalGeographicAustralia: THE ICONIC ITALIAN city of Venice is under siege from floodwaters that have risen to levels not seen in 53 years, driven by a combination of extreme high tides, strong storms, and a city that has been sinking almost since it was built.

    30

    • #
      Another Ian

      Try reading the section on Venice in

      Eric Newby’s “On the Shores of the Mediterranean”

      for some background

      10

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day Pat,
      Weatherzone is reporting record waves in the Adriatic caused by strong wind from the south.

      https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/record-breaking-wave-in-adriatic-sea/530516

      Known as the Sirocco or Jugo, so sufficiently frequent to be named by locals.
      Cheers
      Dave B

      20

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        So was it 10.89 m or 10.87 m – whatever, the 30 ft storm chop was a mere 9 cm, or 7 cm, ‘bigger’ than 1986′s record of 10.8 m. And while the article’s author was metrically confounding themself/itself, the Sirocco storm surge (allegedly) added 91.1 cm to the sea level, so maybe the wave was ‘only’ 9 or 10 metres high.

        Hilarious how Venice’s ‘unprecedented’ flooding was still way shy of 1966′s deeper, bigger, worserer flood level. Is Weatherzone a branch of the BoM (?) because it reads just as bad.

        10

    • #
      Dennis

      The three times I have visited Venice Italy St.Marks Square was covered with water at high tide, about 12 mm deep.

      It was explained that the city is built on a sand spit and supported with hardwood timber piers which are slowly sinking and rotting.

      10

  • #
    hillbilly33

    Whilst overall this is a crap article, it’s none the less valuable to know and have a list of some the real scientists complete with links to relevant articles and papers.

    “List of scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus on global warming”
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    This article is being considered for deletion in accordance with Wikipedia’s deletion policy.
    Please share your thoughts on the matter at this article’s entry on the Articles for deletion page.
    Feel free to improve the article, but the article must not be blanked, and this notice must not be removed, until the discussion is closed. For more information, particularly on merging or moving the article during the discussion, read the guide to deletion.”

    Find sources: “List of scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus on global warming” – news · newspapers · books · scholar · JSTOR
    This is a dynamic list and may never be able to satisfy particular standards for completeness. You can help by expanding it with reliably sourced entries.

    This is a list of scientists who have made statements that conflict with the scientific consensus on global warming as summarized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and endorsed by other scientific bodies. A minority are climatologists.”

    01

    • #
      Latus Dextro

      Best thing anyone can do is divest their intellects of the WickedPedo. It is frightful. Corrective editorial is nigh on impossible. The neo-Marxist Left have it locked down.

      10

  • #
  • #
    PeterS

    Catastrophic weather related disasters have been occurring for centuries around the world. So anyone who tries to link CO2 of any kind let alone man-made CO2 to such disasters is just fake science not much unlike linking the 12 constellations in the zodiac astrology family to such disasters. This is the sort of statement we ought to see coming from the LNP government; but of course we won’t because they are gutless, ignorant or party to the CAGW scam depending on the politician in question.

    50

  • #

    GISS and NOAA are living up to the fame of the State Science Institute in Atlas Shrugged. Richard Nixon started the buying, er, funding of election campaigns with tax money in 1971–within 24 hours of the Libertarian Party filing its papers. Look how that’s worked out. Then again, Australia, not content with voting-at-gunpoint, now added collectivized GAUNTLET voting-at-gunpoint. See any improvement? At least the Yanks elected The Don, who “likes” libertarianism, and therefore can’t be all bad.

    20

  • #
    PeterW

    So….

    No a Priori link between CO2 and droughts.
    No correlation between CO2 and disasters.

    No possible ability for Australia to influence global temperatures by a measurable amount.

    Yet we must spend money like water – money which is then no longer available to do things like mitigate disasters – so show that we care?

    Caring is STOPPING Koalas from being roasted, not crying crocodile tears about them afterwards.

    60

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    No a Priori link between CO2 and droughts.
    No correlation between CO2 and disasters.
    and the moon is made from green cheese

    213

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Peter Fitzroy,

      I am sceptical about the last of your 3 statements, but you getting 2 out of 3 correct is a great improvement.

      100

    • #
      Another Ian

      Posted recently – lately proved to be Norwegian green cheese

      10

    • #
      AndyG55

      No a Priori link between CO2 and droughts.

      No correlation between CO2 and disasters.

      No evidence that increased atmospheric CO2 causes warming

      You cannot produce any evidence to the contrary, so stop with your stupid comments, PF

      Its just childish trolling.

      31

    • #
      PeterW

      Fitz….

      If my statements – one of which was made by an acknowledged expert and supporter of AGW, and the other which is the subject of this post – are the equivalent of stating that the moon is made of green cheese, then what is your claim that the current fires are the result of AGW,?

      Every important claim you make falls under that category, because they are all based on unprovable speculation and denial of confounding factors.

      50

    • #
      glen Michel

      A priori is what Andy Pitman said. That being the attribution of drought and climate change. Personally, I believe him to be wrong as climate does change NATURALLY and can lead to variations in rainfall,vegetation etc on timescales that vary. Given that climate is viewed as 30 years of weather.

      10

      • #
        AndyG55

        When a “believer” says “climate change”, they always mean “human caused global climate change”, (which isn’t happening)

        So he was correct. There is no link at all.

        On the other hand, if you consider “climate change”, as being just natural climate change, you are correct.

        20

    • #
      Dennis

      Ok, so what does the man on the moon eat?

      10

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      No a Priori link between CO2 and droughts.
      No correlation between CO2 and disasters.
      and the moon is made from green cheese — Peter Fitzroy

      2 of those 3 things are right, one is wrong.

      Peter, I appreciate your sarcasm but if you want to convince me those other 2 are not correct show me the mechanism by which CO2 accomplishes causing droughts and disasters. Just because 2 things happen at the same time does not make one a function of the other.

      20

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        It’s always good to bring it back to the core like that.

        Basic physics denies the possibility of CO2 trapping the low energy heat sent from ground level to space.

        Basic factor analysis excludes CO2 from being a player because atmospheric water vapour operates in the same relevant portion of the absorption/emission spectrum as CO2 and makes any consideration of CO2 quantitatively irrelevant.

        The facts are that the phase transformation cycles of water at the surface and later at altitude move huge amounts of valuable energy to its jump off point near deep space.

        All else is hyperventilating, IPCCCCCish, manipulative , controlling, pseudreligious pseudoscience.

        The real problem is not the atmosphere.

        It’s the deliberate Pollution of our Minds and Brains and I would suggest that the mental health of the world population has never been so tenuous as now.

        Breaking Free is not going to be easy considering that there are thirty or more years of creating the social structure that supports the manipulators.

        The Elites on both sides of politics are currently skimming for all that they are worth, and we are unable to stop them.

        KK

        10

    • #
      Latus Dextro

      PF, see the data presented by Tony Heller in #3.
      There Is No Climate Crisis
      Apollo 11 lunar lander crew, along with those on 12, 14, 15, 16 & 17 did not conclude that our moon was made of fromage.
      The climatists like yourself on the other hand, demonstrate intellectual coherence in their embrace of lunar fromage and CO2 causation of warming, demonstrate rank insanity in the belief that one can do anything about it, and appear as dribbling, grasping morons if they think imposing ‘carbon’ trading will affect the climate.

      40

  • #
    PeterS

    A team of former state fires chiefs and commissioners have announced the recent fires are the result of climate change driven by increased man-made CO2. The CAGW cult is spreading.

    50

  • #
    Screaming Nutbag

    So Pielke, whom you label as “academic” and not “scientist”, takes the total costs of disasters in the USA, then adjusts the data to turn it from an upward curve to a downward curve.

    And you *approve* of him doing this?

    111

    • #
      AndyG55

      Costs go up, and there has been massive urban expansion because of prosperity

      that is why you have to take GDP into account.

      Sad you approve of the original farcical method.

      But then

      You are NO SCIENTIST. !

      81

    • #
      PeterW

      He did not adjust the data.
      He applied a more rigorous and appropriate method of interpretation.

      You are entitled to question his methodology, but you are not entitled to lie by claiming that he adjusted the data.

      50

    • #
      John F. Hultquist

      Nutbag,
      If you don’t like what Pielke has done outline how you think it should be done.
      If you just state what you might do, commenters can have a go at it and maybe improve your ideas.

      30

    • #

      Here’s the thing. There are no good statistics, just less awful statistics. Pielke has made the NOAA stats a bit less awful.

      I wouldn’t worry too much about either set of numbers. In the end, subjectivity always intrudes, people find different meanings in numbers, see or collect the numbers that confirm their biases. And in the age of box-tick and true/false education a bunch of numbers represents greater truth than any amount of observation or common sense. If those numbers are gang-reviewed then published, they as good as tablets down from Mt Sinai, at least till the next cycle of publishing. Barbaric, crude, infantile..but there you have it.

      And remember that much of the climate panic has been driven by smug inner-city dwellers who wear scarves in summer. How scientific can they be?

      30

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      Of course, if you were to apply this method to the ‘record funding’ enjoyed by the RFS you would see the true picture there as well

      07

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Wondering if the Establishment greenists are about to run up the white flag over hazard reduction burning?

    A kite flying article?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-14/analysis-bushfire-politics-hazard-reduction-climate-change/11700594

    “Politics no stranger to bushfire debates

    “After the Canberra and Victorian fires, the forest industry said state governments were being held hostage by conservationists resisting hazard reduction burns.

    “WA MP Wilson Tuckey, then the territories minister, went further, blaming environmentalists for the fires because of their opposition to controlled burns.

    “Then, as there is now, there was a proper conversation to be had about whether land management practices have got dangerously out of sync with the fire-loving bush.

    “But now, the argument’s wrapped up in another, even more flammable topic: climate change.

    “Nationals backbencher Barnaby Joyce’s comments about two NSW fire victims being “most likely” Greens voters didn’t help, nor did Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack’s denunciation of Greens MP Adam Bandt and “inner-city raving lunatics” after Bandt’s blaming of Prime Minister Scott Morrison and McCormack for the fires (“When you cuddle coal in Canberra, the rest of the country burns”).

    “Greens Senator Jordan Steele-John’s took the inflammometer to 11 with his claim that major party politicians were “no better than a bunch of arsonists”.

    “Australian politics appears incapable of sensibly discussing climate change at any time, but particularly at times of natural disaster of the sort that scientists say will worsen as the globe warms.

    “The big dries, which according to scientists will be exacerbated by climate change, may have complicated the ability to conduct hazard burning, even if there was consensus on it being required.

    “Of course, when conditions are ideal, controlled burning has the extra challenge of urbanisation, mixed title boundaries, fences to contend with, let alone resourcing.

    “But as one Aboriginal community has shown, there might be big benefits from Australia re-learning its ancient people’s fire skills.

    “The question remains whether Australian politics is mature enough to allow it.

    20

    • #
      PeterS

      The question remains whether Australian politics is mature enough to allow it.

      Will never happen as long as we have the ALP and the Greens at all levels of government behaving like a religious cult yelling the end of the world is just around the corner unless Australia by itself stops coal mining and shuts down all coal fired power stations. It would be a welcome change if Morrison turned the tables and asked them what exactly are we supposed to do to avoid the alleged climate catastrophe. Reducing our emissions to zero will make no difference as the chief CSIRO scientist stated. For the record he stated:

      “On 1 June 2017 I attended a Senate Estimates hearing where Senator Ian Macdonald asked if the world was to reduce its carbon emissions by 1.3 per cent, which is approximately Australia’s rate of emissions, what impact would that make on the changing climate of the world. My response was that the impact would be virtually nothing but I immediately continued by explaining that doing nothing is not a position that we can responsibly take because emissions reductions is a little bit like voting, in that if everyone took the attitude that their vote does not count and no-one voted, we would not have a democracy.”

      In other words, he along with the ALP and Greens want Australia to sacrifice itself for no real benefit given the rest of the world will continue to build hundreds of new coal fired power stations for many years to come. These are the facts and there is nothing he and others can say to prove otherwise.

      10

  • #
    pat

    lucky to find one or two new articles per day in the MSM on the following:

    idiotic comment by Accuweather at the end. read all:

    PICS/VIDEOS: 13 Nov: USA Today: Deadly Arctic blast breaks records set more than 100 years ago
    by John Bacon; Contributing: Grace Hauck, USA TODAY; The Associated Press
    It was literally freezing in Florida and Alabama while parts of Maine, Michigan and New York were digging out from a foot of snow Wednesday as a historically early and deadly Arctic air mass gripped much of nation…
    The entire state of Alabama was under a freeze warning as temperatures dipped into the 20s and below, breaking records at more than 100 locations…

    Record lows were recorded Wednesday morning from Birmingham, Alabama, to Burlington, Vermont. Birmingham’s low of 18 degrees bested by 4 degrees a record that stood since 1911.
    New York City and Buffalo, New York, as well as parts of Ohio, have set records. In Kansas alone, at least six cities, including Wichita, set cold records for the date Tuesday.
    In Missouri, St. Louis dropped to 11 degrees, breaking a record for the date that stood for more than 100 years…

    ***VIDEO: Climate change is making winters colder despite rising temperatures and hotter summers. Here’s why. Just the FAQs, USA TODAY…READ ALL
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/11/13/arctic-blast-historic-freeze-florida-alabama-michigan-snow-deaths/2585353001/

    read all:

    13 Nov: NationalGeographic: Snow in Texas and ice in Alabama? Unusual cold weather could become more common
    A wavier jet stream brings cold Arctic air down south. That may be a counterintuitive result of climate change, some scientists say.
    By Alejandra Borunda
    This week, temperatures are expected to hit historic lows across much of North America…

    Some scientists think, though, that the frequency and intensity of these kinds of cold interludes may be changing as the planet warms, as counterintuitive as that might sound.
    “This Arctic outbreak is connected to the behavior of the jet stream and the polar vortex,” says Judah Cohen, an atmospheric scientist at MIT. And those, in turn, are affected by a changing climate—mostly by intense warming in the high Arctic.
    The topic is controversial in the atmospheric science community, but some think they see a connection between a warmer planet and cold blasts of weather like the one North America is experiencing right now…

    Scientists are embroiled in an active debate right now about this loopiness. Some think the jet stream is wavier now than it has been in the past, and that its bends and bows will intensify as the planet warms further. That might mean that cold air could come sliding down from the north more often, a counterintuitive result of long-term global warming, explains Zach Zobel, a climate scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center…

    The overall message, though, is clear: the planet is heating up, and the weather patterns to which humans have become accustomed will continue to shift and change.
    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/arctic-blast-polar-vortex-cold-weather-climate/

    10

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Govt can do no wrong……its all climate change…..

    Spin doctors in overdrive…..

    “Do not look at that man behind the curtain”
    - Wizard of Oz
    “Wizad of Oz”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-13/fire-and-climate-change-what-do-experts-have-to-say/11696586

    “”We’ve gone over the one-million-hectare mark at least for the forests and the plants in the eastern part of NSW — this is unprecedented.”


    Um…nope……
    From AndyG’s post #49.1 at http://joannenova.com.au/2019/11/opportunists-and-the-backlash-are-megafires-due-to-megatons-of-fuel-or-not-enough-carbon-taxes/

    1851 Black Thursday…. 5 million hectares burnt
    1938 Black Friday…. 2 million hectares burnt
    1944 Victoria…. 1 million hectares burnt
    1961, WA bushfires…. 1.8 million hectares burnt
    1974/75 NSW bushfires.. 4.5 million hectares burnt
    1980 Waterfall bushfire… 1 million hectares burnt.
    1984/85 NSW bushfires.. 3.5 million hectares burnt
    2003 Tenterden WA….. 2.1 million hectares burnt
    2003 East Vic alpine.. 1.3 million hectares burnt
    2006/7 Great Divides Vic.. 1 million hectares burnt
    2009 Black Saturday Vic… 450,000 hectares burnt.. lots of property loss
    2011 Carnarvon WA… 800,000 hectares burnt
    2019 to date (11/11/2019) in NSW and Qld… 700,000 hectares burnt

    …………..
    “An official attribution report on the current fires has yet to begin, but Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick said a soon-to-be published study on fires in Queensland last year found that the temperatures associated with the blazes were four times more likely because of climate change.”
    …………..
    “”The fact that multiple versions of these ecosystems right around the country are burning all within the same couple of years, I mean if that isn’t telling you something significantly different has happened …

    “This is a really confronting warning light, which is telling us [about] the sheer dryness and the deterioration of the fire season and the extreme bursts of fire weather.

    “The way fires are going to move across country is rapidly changing and fits with the scenario that had been painted by climate modellers.
    ……………
    “David Bowman, a professor of pyrogeography and fire science at the University of Tasmania, said it was important that media commentary didn’t unnecessarily sow seeds of doubt in the community regarding the quality and concern of fire management agencies.

    “”It’s really quite disingenuous to suggest that biodiversity concerns, or the concerns of environment, have substantially changed fuel-management programs,” he said

    20

  • #
    hillbilly33

    IMHO, it can be said the recent fires are mainly the result of the failure of authorities to reduce and manage the heavier fuel load in forests driven by plant growth due to increasing atmospheric CO2 from whatever origin. Far from being a pollutant, increasing CO2 is a benefit to all mankind.

    http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/photo/photo_subject.php

    60

    • #
      PeterW

      When fuel management is being done on a 1-in-40-year basis, it does not require extra growth by whatever means, to create a hazard.

      We’ve had droughts, hot Nor-Westerly winds and fires since Cook sailed over the horizon.

      40

  • #
    Another Ian

    Around this area

    “So even though the low carbon fuels figure is big, pretty and green, it is comprised of newly found elements from SoCal’s periodic table: impossibilium and hopium.”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/13/pathway-2045-5/

    00

  • #
    Zane

    Most CO2 emissions are from natural sources. The oceans absorb the bulk of them and trillions of microorganisms use the carbon to grow their shells. When they die they sink to the bottom and over time turn into limestone. The carbon cycle, Science 101. Meanwhile on dry land the Chinese are busily turning limestone into cement and building millions of empty apartments. Chicom Grift 101.

    30

  • #
    pat

    all over the MSM:

    13 Nov: BBC: Greta Thunberg to sail to Spain climate summit with YouTubers
    Ms Thunberg will now sail from Virginia in the US to Spain on the French 48ft sailing catamaran La Vagabonde.
    She will travel with Australian YouTubers Riley Whitlum and Elayna Carausu, as well as Briton Nikki Henderson – who is a professional yachtswoman.
    Their boat uses solar panels and hydro-generators for power…
    VIDEO: Greta meets Obama
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-50403488

    nowhere can I find anything about RE on the boat:

    18 Sept: Daily Mail: Young family who are sailing around the world on a luxury yacht funded by YouTube fans reveal the five destinations everyone should see
    Travel bloggers Elayna and Riley are sailing the world with their son Lenny in tow
    by Alice Murphy
    1. TONGA
    Best of all? You can fly direct from Sydney to Tongatapu airport all year round…
    4. LOS ROQUES – VENEZUELA
    Los Roques is exceptionally cheap for food, drink and sailing, with diesel for boats largely available free of charge…
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-7475159/Family-sailing-world-luxury-yacht-reveal-five-destinations-see.html

    2016: PedestrianTV: Aussie YouTube Stars Net Sweet Deal For Multi-Milli Yacht To Sail World
    By Vanessa Lawrence
    Their new 45ft Outremer catamaran is currently being build(sic) over in the Land of Frogs, and will be ready to set sail from February 2017 for them to “burn around the world at lightning speed”…

    2016: ABC: YouTube channel funding Australian couple’s million-dollar sailing boat and lifestyle
    ABC Kimberley By Ben Collins
    An Australian couple, documenting their lives sailing around the world on YouTube, has struck a deal with a boatbuilding company enabling them to pay for a million-dollar yacht with their social media income…

    Just one year ago Mr Whitelum and Ms Carausu were yet to build their YouTube following and had to leave their boat in the Caribbean to return to Australia to try and raise money with regular jobs…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-16/youtube-channel-funding-couples-million-dollar-sailing-boat/8027658

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      pat

      oh…solar-powered batteries!

      22 Oct: NYT: Ahoy There, Mommy! Family Sails Around World on YouTube
      Elayna Carausu, Riley Whitelum and their little Lenny are learning the ropes and making the videos.
      By Penelope Green
      Ms. Carausu estimated they might spend $400 every two weeks on groceries in places they can catch their own fish, and $400 every two months or so on diesel fuel. They run their engine as little as possible, and charge their batteries with solar and wind power…

      Mr. Whitelum skipped university and started a business digging trenches for Australia’s phone company before going to work on oil rigs for eight years…READ ON
      https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/22/style/boat-life-youtube.html

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        pat

        have seen a comment from someone who has a member of the family following this boat; says it has a twin diesel engine. I know nothing about these things.

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        • #
          pat

          La Vagabonde is an Outremer 45:

          OUTREMER 45: an ideal catamaran for long cruises
          Solar panels are standard on all Outremer boats (with 560 W of power). More and more our boats are equipped with a hydro-generator or a more powerful alternator, which, when coupled with lithium batteries, for example, allow for very good power autonomy. The electric motor can be run 20-30 minutes a day and there is still all the power necessary for life on board…

          The Outremer 45 has 2 30HP VOLVO engines that reach a top speed of 8.5 knots. If you need greater autonomy the boat can sustain between 6.5 and 6.8 knots on one engine at 2,200 rpms…
          In addition, with only one engine running, one of the hulls will be completely silent, so if someone wants to sleep, running a motor is not a problem…READ ON
          http://blog.choose-your-boat.com/outremer-45-english/

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          • #

            The Outremer 45 has 2 30HP VOLVO engines…..

            Ah, yes!

            Here’s Greta showing her support for a fellow Swedish entity.

            So as not be seen as hypocritical on the part of Greta, Volvo has agreed to install a deck mounted stationary pushbike connected to to a generator, so that for the duration that the engines are on, Greta can pedal away to offset the diesel emissions. (yes of course they did)

            Tony.

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            WXcycles

            … so if someone wants to sleep, running a motor is not a problem …

            eh? There is no problem sleeping on a boat with the engine running, in fact it’s better if it is, it damps out the loud sounds of waves irregularly slapping against the hull. A bed full of fish scales is a bigger problem.

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    pat

    13 Nov: UK Express: BBC Weather: Europe faces ‘tricky’ disruption as heavy snow splits continent in two
    By Aurora Bosotti
    BBC Weather meteorologist Phil Avery predicted fast flowing air currents will continue to cause unsettled weather across the continent, with heavy snow expected to cover up northern Spain and the Italian and French Alps over the coming days. Europe is set to be split in two as western areas are set to remain under the influence of “tricky conditions” characterised by cold temperatures and persistent rainfall as eastern Europe will bask in warmer weather…

    Northern Spain and Portugual will be on the receiving end of “significant snow” throughout Thursday as France is predicted to face “gale-force” winds…
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1204127/BBC-Weather-Europe-Spain-Italy-snow-Venice-flood-rain-forecast-today-latest

    12 Nov: UK Express: BBC Weather: Savage conditions to batter Europe as ‘bitter cold’ engulfs Italy and Spain
    BBC Weather has warned conditions in most of Europe will be “wild” over the coming weeks while Italy and Spain battle with persistent rain as temperatures are expected to reach “bitter cold” lows.
    By Aurora Bosotti
    BBC Weather meteorologist Stav Danaos: “Very cold conditions across the British Isles into Scandinavia – unsettled here, wet and windy at times. It looks very stormy across the central Mediterranean thanks to this area of low pressure.”…
    “Temperatures in single figures widely across the north and northwest, it’s bitterly cold across northern Scandinavia…
    UK snow warning: Polar vortex at record strength as UK prepares for snow dump…
    UK snow alert: Heavy snowfall leaves Devon completely covered – Traffic warnings in place…
    Storm Bernardo first hit Spain on Sunday, and now the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has issued alerts for wind, waves, rain or snow across 17 areas…
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1203074/BBC-Weather-Europe-forecast-today-Italy-Spain-snow-Alps-this-week-latest

    10 Nov:OlivePressSpain: Snow falling in Spain’s Mallorca, while Costa del Sol, Balearics, Murcia and Costa Blanca on weather alert for 120 km/h wind and six-metre waves
    Around the country, 33 provinces have weather alerts in place, from Lugo in the north, to Malaga in the south
    By Charlie Smith
    ON Spain’s election day, the first snow of the year has been reported in Mallorca, while much of the country has weather warnings in place.
    Early this morning, snow fell in the island’s Serra de Tramuntana mountains at an altitude of 1,000m…
    Meanwhile, locals posted snaps online of snow in some more unexpected areas like the Port de Pollença.
    It comes after Spain’s state weather agency AEMET had predicted a ‘polar front’ and placed parts of Mallorca and Menorca on orange alert.
    Around the country, 33 provinces have weather alerts in place, from Lugo in the north, to Malaga in the south…
    https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2019/11/10/snow-falling-in-spains-mallorca-while-costa-del-sol-balearics-murcia-and-costa-blanca-on-weather-alert-for-120-km-h-wind-and-six-metre-waves/

    13 Nov: UK Express: UK snow latest maps: Freezing arctic weather to smash UK in hours
    TEMPERATURES are plummeting across the UK, with many waking to frost, but now freezing arctic weather will bring snow and sleet to the country over the next few hours.
    By Georgina Laud
    Temperatures will not exceed 9C on Wednesday, and overnight are forecast to plummet to -3C in Scotland.
    On Tuesday night temperatures plummeted to -2.8C in Braemar in Scotland…
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1203217/UK-snow-forecast-met-office-weather-snow-warning-rain-floods

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    pat

    a whopping 13min-plus for Mulins, and a very friendly Hamish:

    AUDIO: 13min17sec: 14 Nov: ABC Breakfast: ‘Climate change is supercharging our bushfire situation’: Greg Mullins
    A coalition of 23 former fire and emergency services chiefs will meet with the Federal Government next month demanding more support for firefighters and are calling for the Government to phase out fossil fuels.
    The group, which calls itself Emergency Leaders for Climate Action has twice written to the Government this year, requesting a meeting with the Prime Minister.

    But, earlier this week, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack told RN Breakfast he’d never heard of them.
    Next month’s meeting will be hosted by David Littleproud, the Minister for Natural Disaster and Emergency Management.
    Greg Mullins is a member of the group he’s a former Commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW and current member of the Climate Council.
    Guest: Greg Mullins, former Commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW and current member of the Climate Council.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/climate-change-is-supercharging-our-bushfire-situation/11703228

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      pat

      the prophet:

      14 Nov: SMH: ‘We saw it coming’: Former NSW fire chief says government was warned on bushfires
      By Jenny Noyes
      Speaking on the ABC’s Radio National program on Thursday morning, Mr Mullins said he wrote to Prime Minister Scott Morrison in April and again “immediately after” the May election, warning him of the coming bushfire season and requesting an urgent meeting to discuss funding for firefighting and action to address climate change.
      Of the response from the government, he said “in a nutshell it has been difficult and the Prime Minister has seen fit not to meet with us”…

      “We saw it coming. We tried to warn the government.”
      While he welcomed the scheduled meeting and said he hoped the Prime Minister would attend, he said “there could have been real concrete differences had we been listened to” in April…

      “This is where people say it’s political, but it’s a fact that over the past five years our emissions have been going up, not down. It appears we are using credits from our very low Kyoto commitments to offset the Paris [agreement obligations].
      “Mother Nature is not fooled by dodgy accounting, she just sees the CO2 go up.”
      Mr Mullins said climate change “makes the drought much worse, and we see these mega fires that we just can’t put out.”

      A spokeswoman for Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s office said the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action had been offered meetings with senior cabinet ministers “several times this year”…

      Mr Mullins said he wants to see a bipartisan approach to addressing climate change, and for the government to declare a climate emergency.
      “It is not normal, it hasn’t happened like this before. We can’t fix the past so let’s start now and fix the base cause, which is the burning of coal and gas…
      https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-saw-it-coming-former-fire-commissioner-says-government-was-warned-on-bushfires-20191114-p53agj.html

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    pat

    still nothing at theirABC about the arctic freeze in the US, but this fits the agenda. 2min50sec Hamish: I note that the Mayor is blaming climate change. is that view widely held in Venice?
    Sonia: yes…the rise of the level of the sea, which is definitely happening; Venice built on the sea, so, as soon as the sea level rises, it puts the city in difficulties; the more the sea level rises, the more endangered Venice will be…

    AUDIO: 4min39sec: 14 Nov: ABC Breakfast: World cultural treasure Venice city inundated with flooding
    While Australia has been buffeted by widespread bushfires on the other side of the globe one of the world’s great cultural treasures has been inundated with flooding.
    Much of low lying Venice remains submerged after being swamped by the highest tidal waters in more than 50 years
    Sonia Legre Grezzi is a correspondent with Agence France Presse and joins RN Breakfast from St Mark’s Square which remains under water.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/world-cultural-treasure-venice-city-inundated-with-flooding/11703406

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    pat

    AUDIO: 8min18sec: 14 Nov: ABC Breakfast: Renewable jet fuel made from non-edible corn key to reducing aviation emissions
    This week, Qantas became just the second airline in the world to set a goal of reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
    Part of its plan involves investing $50 million over 10 years to help develop a sustainable aviation fuel industry.
    The International Civil Aviation Organisation says renewable jet fuel is crucial to the aviation industry’s goal of halving emissions by 2050.
    Guest: Patrick Gruber, chief executive, Gevo (US-based biofuels maker)
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/renewable-jet-fuel-key-to-reducing-aviation-emissions/11703050

    19 Jun: Venturebeat: Gevo, biofuel company, gets money from Branson’s Virgin Fuels
    by Matt Marshall
    Gevo, a biofuel company seeking to create replacements for gasoline and jet-fuel, has raised an undisclosed amount in a second round of financing from Virgin Fuels and Khosla Ventures.
    Entrepreneur Richard Branson formed Virgin Fuels last year to make investments in renewable energy companies…
    Branson burns $1 billion of fuel a year, and feels bad about its environmental effects, and sees biofuels as a good alternative. Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla and Branson together recently converted Google co-founder Larry Page of the need to support biofuels too.

    Gevo chief executive Patrick Gruber, who joined the company last month, said the company is still very much in the development phase. He said the attractive thing about this area is that there’s no intellectual property that blocks the company from developing anything (we took this as a thinly veiled swipe at rival start-up entrepreneur Craig Venter’s patent claims).

    “It’s a freakin’ free for all,” he said. “Outsiders are going to win. There is no possibly way for these big [incumbent energy] companies to shed their baggage.”
    Gevo has licensed technology in the labs of Frances Arnold at Caltech.
    https://venturebeat.com/2007/07/19/gevo-biofuel-company-gets-money-from-bransons-virgin-fuels/

    17 Jun: GlobeNewswire: Airline Virgin Australia Hits 1 Million Kilometer Milestone Flying Gevo’s Sustainable Jet Fuel
    ENGLEWOOD, Colo. – Gevo, Inc. announced today that Virgin Australia has used Gevo’s Sustainable Aviation Jet Fuel (SAJF) to power 1 million kilometers of flights, for all aircraft operating in and out of Brisbane Airport when the fuel was put through the general fuel supply system…
    https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/06/17/1869659/0/en/Airline-Virgin-Australia-Hits-1-Million-Kilometer-Milestone-Flying-Gevo-s-Sustainable-Jet-Fuel.html

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      Brian

      When they say that the fuel the fuel was put through the general fuel supply system I assume they mean that they added a (probably very small) quantity of the biofuel to regular fuel. A detailed study into he energy in renewable jet fuel from engineered sugarcane, which was superior to all other feedstock by a wide margin summarised the findings as “In simple terms, this means that a Boeing 747 could fly for 10 hours on bio-jet fuel produced on just 54 acres of land”. Based on this it will take a large percentage of the Earths arable land to power the current world aircraft fleet let alone the projected increase.

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    pat

    behind paywall:

    Arson investigation under way as fire bugs strike again
    Sunshine Coast Daily – 56 minutes ago
    FIREFIGHTERS have put out two fires in an hour this morning that were deliberately lit outside the abandoned old Noosa Tewantin Bowls Club. Rob Frey of the Noosa Fire Brigade said mattresses had been pulled out of the building and set alight igniting adjoining bushland…

    VIDEO: 2min55sec: Facebook: 7News Sunshine Coast: Noosa North Shore residents are being warned to leave immediately as a large bushfire burns near the First Cutting.
    There are fears a firebug is terrorising the area after the beachside community was evacuated for the second time in five days.
    https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSSC/videos/fears-the-firebug-is-terroising-noosa-north-shore/3071642216188382/

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    PeterS

    It’s just getting more stupid. Now former fire chiefs are saying it’s harder to perform hazard reductions due to climate change. Their solution is to reduce our emissions. Now is the perfect time for Morrison to step in and propose the only viable solution to shut them up; nuclear. Alternatively, he should tell them to go jump. I would go further and say if they keep harping on the climate change hoax I would put all of them on a plane and send them to China where they can try to make a real difference to global emissions. Good luck on that one. More likely they would be put into prison.

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    • #
      WXcycles

      “… helping end ice age …”

      These weather people need to go to a library and obtain a Geological Dictionary and look up the definition of the term “ice-age”, as it’s a scientific term, with a specific professional definition. And the definition makes very clear we’re in an ice-age right now.

      Weather ‘experts’ … publishing climate-crud (pseudo-’sciencey’ fluff) about ‘ice-ages’ … though not knowing what an ice-age is.

      Darwin Awards

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      • #
        Greg in NZ

        Far from being a hex-spurt – I prefer to call myself a ‘weather freak’ with an interest in geology – I’ve enjoyed blowing fuses inside activists’ tiny minds when I point out the Earth is still in the Quarternary ice age, and we should be glad for ANY warming during this brief interglacial Holocene period which, for all intents and purposes, has done its dash.

        Yes its true I – and probably a lot of us here – grew up in those times referred to as BC (Before Computers) yet we had books and encyclopedias and atlases and a desire to discover and learn and understand… and (hopefully) improve and better our lot in life.

        Then again, that fluffy monsoon climate ‘science’ Dennis linked to came via the ‘C’ word (I refuse to say it as it’s Jacinda’s favourite word… and now rendered completely meaningless). Just hope it stops snowing down south by Christmas or at least New Year’s.

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