JoNova

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Midweek Unthreaded

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Midweek Unthreaded, 9.2 out of 10 based on 17 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/yx9ael5m

175 comments to Midweek Unthreaded

  • #
    Ian George

    Jo and Chris
    Re the Albany Good Friday (19th April) temp not being recorded as 10.4C as highest temp for the day.
    Somebody seems to have stuffed up. Thursday’s 25.1C has been placed into Friday and what should have been Friday’s has been placed into Saturday at 14.5C.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201904/html/IDCJDW6001.201904.shtml

    I can’t really confirm this but maybe the temp reached 14.5C before 9:00am Saturday. This would then be recorded as Friday’s max temp as this is the protocol followed by BoM.
    The graph below seems to show a spike prior to 9:00am on Saturday. It also clearly shows Thursday’s max temp at 25.1C.
    https://s3.amazonaws.com/jo.nova/guest/aust/bom-audit/gillham-chris/albany/timeanddate-albany.png

    But really, a somewhat messy stuff-up by the BoM.

    120

    • #
      glen Michel

      Evidence further of post-normal stuff at the Bureau.Their predecessors would be spinning in their graves at the lack of diligence shown.But hey who cares.

      70

    • #
      Ghibli Levante

      The temperature of 14.5C for Saturday is consistent with other site temperatures in the region for Saturday.

      The BOM have flagged temperature data for the 19th as uncertain and no data was recorded for the 18th. The same applies for the 25th and 24th. So they are aware of a problem.

      http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataDGraph&p_stn_num=9500&p_nccObsCode=122&p_month=04&p_startYear=2019

      Also the Rainfall data for the 20th is an accumulated two day total. It also appears that the period for recording daily Rainfall differs to that for recording temperatures.

      http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataDGraph&p_stn_num=9500&p_nccObsCode=136&p_month=04&p_startYear=2019

      My guess is that the AWS did not reset itself to take new readings for the 19th and as a result the high temp for the 18th was recorded as the 19th. Rainfall data suffered a similar fate.

      No stuff up by the BOM and no intent to hide a record low. I’d guess the half hourly data is somewhere in their system and needs to be retrieved to update the system with the actual temperatures.

      The Airport site is also missing some data which will need to be retrieved and verified as it is apparently an ACORN site.

      http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataDGraph&p_stn_num=9999&p_nccObsCode=122&p_month=04&p_startYear=2019

      There is nothing mysterious or fictitious in this at all.

      41

      • #

        Ghibli, keep trying. The BOM’s own equipment recorded the max of 10.4C on the Friday.

        Tell us again why the million dollar a day bureau can’t find and flag 15C errors and fix them manually?

        70

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          I suspect they’ll only fix it when they get found out.

          Like this one.

          How many others have not been brought to BoM’s attention and remain as inaccurate records is the question that needs to be answered. An independent audit of the BoM is critical and should be undertaken by the Auditor-General, not some internally or Ministerially appointed yes-men.

          30

        • #
          Ghibli Levante

          I don’t need to try harder. We all know the BOM’s equipment recorded 10.4C for the Friday. I’ll lay London to a brick on the scenario I have outlined is the cause. They have also flagged the data.

          The BOM include this note at the bottom of the Daily Maximum Temperature page:

          “Data within the table which are in italics represent observations which have not been fully quality controlled, a process which may take a number of months to complete. While these data may be correct, you should exercise caution in their use. For observations of daily maximum temperature which span more than one day it indicates that there is some uncertainty associated with the exact date on which the daily maximum temperature occurred.

          Gaps occur in the table where a valid observation is not available. This is frequently associated with the observer being unavailable (where observations are undertaken manually), a failure in the observing equipment, or when an event has produced suspect data.”

          Give them a few months and the correct data will be entered. If you can’t wait that long, send them a polite letter and maybe they’ll put it in the priority queue just to keep you happy.

          I’ve found over the years life is a lot more fun if you don’t look at everything with a large dose of cynicism.

          Cheers

          30

          • #

            London and bricks don’t cut anything. Look at the half hour readings the BOM gauge recorded. There is no reason to suspect these were not accurate as they showed the cold front came through that morning all across the state. There’s no sign the thermometer was faulty.

            Being cynical is not fun. Being a sucker and paying for incompetence isn’t either.

            50

            • #
              Ghibli Levante

              Thanks for your reply, but would you please read my comments again.

              Okay.

              I never said the temperature data or the thermometer was faulty.

              I said “The BOM have flagged temperature data for the 19th as uncertain and no data was recorded for the 18th. The same applies for the 25th and 24th. So they are aware of a problem.”

              That should have read “The BOM have flagged the maximum temperature period for the 19th as uncertain and no data was recorded for the 18th. The same applies for the 25th and 24th.”

              I should have been clearer in my explanation.

              From the BOM’s Daily Maximum Temperature Page:

              “The Daily maximum air temperature is nominally recorded at 9 am local clock time. It is the highest temperature for the 24 hours leading up to the observation, and is recorded as the maximum temperature for the previous day.”

              It appears the system for whatever reason did not reset itself at 9.00am on the 19th. As it had recorded a maximum of 25.1C for the 18th that carried through to 9.00am on the 20th when the system reset itself. Consequently, no temperature is shown for the 18th and 25.1C is shown as the maximum for the 19th.

              Information provided by Chris Gillham clearly shows a 10.4C maximum for the 19th. So Albury has a new record lowest maximum. In time that will show up in the records.

              Cheers.

              20

          • #
            yarpos

            Cynicism allows you to detect and understand the BS that swirls around us. It doesnt have to be always engaged but is a very useful tool once something doesnt look or sound right. Its far better than swanning along in rainbows and unicorns naivity.

            Having fun seems a separate issue to me and cant see why that would be impeded.

            10

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        It would appear that the database need a few flags to highlight anomalous readings.

        30

      • #
        Ian G

        Ghibli
        Two sites at Albany with one being an ACORN site and neither could get it right. Reminds of the great Goulburn cover-up last winter.
        And wasn’t it Albany that had the top max temp for Australia according to ACORN 1?

        40

        • #
          Ghibli Levante

          Ian,

          Read my comment again. It appears both sites suffered the same problem.

          As the Airport is an ACORN Site all temperatures will have to be cross referenced and checked. The half hourly data will be in their system. Just to make sure this momentous occasion is recorded for posterity maybe Chris Gillham could send them a copy of their own data.

          Cheers

          20

  • #
    tom0mason

    There is a popular cult of ignorance currently but there probably has always been some, it’s just that these days it appears particularly proud and vocal. Within it is a strain of anti-intellectualism that has been a constantly threading its way through our political, cultural, and now scientific endeavors. It is nurtured by the false premise that consensus and democracy means ‘my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge’.
    After all why learn for yourself how and why things happen when when the preferred way is to stay blissfully ignorant and unquestioningly accept whatever authority you believe knows best.

    So Jo, thank-you for this web-site, for it’s sanity, for its relief from the mind-pummeling propaganda of the MSM outlets.

    220

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Unfortunately a few of the ignorant and unquestioningly accepting of whatever appears on Facebook yesterday think that they can Fitz in here.

      72

    • #
      Bulldust

      The cult of ignorance is often associated with the cult of identity politics. Watched a good Sky News (UK) interview on YouTube with Dave Rubin this morning in which he pushed back against the identity politics. He has had the benefit of travelling with Jordan Peterson through Australia recently along with several interviews with prominent IDWers (Intellectual Dark Web).

      Particularly disturbing is how the Labor party is embracing identity politics. I would like to speak openly about personal experiences with it in my workplace, but I have no doubt that would place my position in jeopardy. At the end of the day I am the sole breadwinner in my household, as my wife is now deservedly retied. And this is how they silence you.

      Let’s just say that the State Premier (WA) has unleashed the identity politics by pushing for higher female representation in senior positions in government. Never mind that the (increasing less) civil service is already predominantly female, that isn’t good enough, because of the ‘over-representation’ of males in senior posts. There are a number of reasons why this may be the case, but as any identity politician knows, the simple evidence of a discrepancy is evidence of systemic bias which must be corrected immediately.

      I leave it to the reader to imagine how many ways and to what extent this causes a corrosive tension in the workplace.

      151

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  • #
    el gordo

    Anecdotal evidence suggests its been a mild winter in Europe and looking at the direction things are taking we should expect a cool wet summer.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

    30

    • #
      Roger

      It was quite mild in the UK for parts of the winter – very pleasant – but I’ve known milder.

      Parts of the Alps, Germany, Austria and elsewhere recorded record lows, Hamburg recorded the latest spring in more than 30 years and currently May temperatures in UK and across central and northern Europe heve been from 5-10C Below Normal with no immediate prospect of that changing.

      Not that the eco-activist BBC is reporting that – more interested in the 1 million species about to be made extinct by the U.N. and IPCC.

      50

  • #
    RicDre

    More proof that CAGW is Science Fiction (/sarc)

    “NBC News Technology Correspondent: Climate Change Threat Like ‘When Space Aliens Land with Ray Guns and Are Threatening All of Us’”

    https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2019/05/06/nbc-news-technology-correspondent-climate-change-threat-like-when-space-aliens-land-with-ray-guns-and-are-threatening-all-of-us/

    20

  • #
    Bill in Oz

    @ EG; Any thoughts on this ? You wrote yesterday, “its the collapse of the high pressure belt and I suspect a wayward jetstream is involved.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
    And I later replied ” EG Is there a sequence of this type of charts showing how the lows cycle around Antarctica ?

    It occurs to me that these Lows do not die & disappear. The same 5-6 Low pressure systems constantly cycling around Antarctica..

    But is the Southern Hemisphere Summer the Earth’s axis tilt has an impact on their movement Northwards maybe and this on the weather at lower latitudes -eg Australia ?

    Another thought : Antarctica itself is shown as having no weather systems..highs or Lows..But that is not correct.”

    Bill

    30

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  • #
    Graeme No.3

    Bill:

    Years ago Hubert Lamb developed the idea that the sun’s activity drove the climate through the Hadley cells. That is, a more active sun put more heat in causing the Hadley cells to expand. This would cause the dry zones to move further from the Equator. (Dry zones are beyond the tropical zone and in the Northern hemisphere include the Sahara, Arabian and SW USA deserts. In the South it covers the Kalahari, Australian and the Atacama deserts). Lower solar activity would cause the dry zones to move towards the Equator.

    Thus in Australia, an active sun would increase rain in the north and reduce it in the south. A less active sun would cause less rain in the north (poorer monsoons) and more rain down south. The lucky country. But India would be in all sorts of strife if the monsoons fail, possibly one reason why the Indian government is so intent on industrialisation.
    It wasn’t intended as a predictor for weather, just longer term changes.

    80

    • #
      glen Michel

      Thanks for recalling Hubert Lamb ex UEA and preeminent paleo-climatologist. CRU is a political unit these days.

      30

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Weird stuff happening in NT – NT a quasi outpost of Beijing?

    Why is this going on and people not concerned about it?

    “Smart city” = “surveillance state”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-big-brother-social-control-goes-to-australia_2898104.html

    “Australia is preparing to debut its version of the Chinese regime’s high-tech system for monitoring and controlling its citizens. The launch, to take place in the northern city of Darwin, will include systems to monitor people’s activity via their cell phones.

    “The new system is based on monitoring programs in Shenzhen, China, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is testing its Social Credit System. Officials on the Darwin council traveled to Shenzhen, according to NT News, to “have a chance to see exactly how their Smart Technology works prior to being fully rolled out.”

    “In Darwin, they’ve already constructed “poles, fitted with speakers, cameras and Wi-Fi,” according to NT News, to monitor people, their movements around the city, the websites they visit, and what apps they use. The monitoring will be done mainly by artificial intelligence, but will alert authorities based on set triggers.

    “Just as in China, the surveillance system is being branded as a “smart city” program, and while Australian officials claim its operations are benign, they’ve announced it functions to monitor cell phone activity and “virtual fences” that will trigger alerts if people cross them.

    “We’ll be getting sent an alarm saying, ‘There’s a person in this area that you’ve put a virtual fence around.’ … Boom, an alert goes out to whatever authority, whether it’s us or police to say ‘look at camera five,’” said Josh Sattler, the Darwin council’s general manager for innovation, growth, and development services, according to NT News.
    The nature of the “virtual fences” and what type of activity will sound an alarm still isn’t being made clear.

    The system is being promoted as mostly benign. Sattler said it will tell the government “where people are using Wi-Fi, what they’re using Wi-Fi for, are they watching YouTube, etc. All these bits of information we can share with businesses. … We can let businesses know, ‘Hey, 80 percent of people actually use Instagram within this area of the city, between these hours.’”

    101

  • #
    Bill in Oz

    Very interesting series of links to freezing weather in Europe in May :
    https://www.iceagenow.info/

    50

  • #
    pat

    ***Lowy Institute quoted – lol:

    7 May: CNN: In a scary world, the biggest worry has to be climate change
    By Stewart Patrick and Terrence Mullan
    VIDEO: Undeniable climate change facts 02:24
    (Editor’s Note: Stewart Patrick is a senior fellow and Terrence Mullan assistant director in the international institutions and global governance program at the Council on Foreign Relations)
    In a world of troubles, the battle against climate change must take priority. That is the clear message of the 28 leading global think tanks that together comprise the Council of Councils (CoC). The CoC’s 2018-2019 Report Card (LINK) on International Cooperation, released today, designates global warming as the top international priority for the first time in the report card’s five-year history. Alas, those same experts see little opportunity for progress in the coming year…

    But the biggest impediment to multilateral cooperation, most think-tank experts agree, is President Trump’s “America First” agenda. By abdicating US global leadership, testing Western solidarity, and escalating trade tensions, the American President is undermining the legitimacy and stability of the existing multilateral system, contributing to the sense of a world adrift.

    ***The world has benefited for decades from “an international order in which the rules of the road are well established and widely observed,” explains Michael Fullilove, director of the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia. “But increasingly those rules are under challenge, including by those who wrote them.”…
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/07/opinions/cfr-climate-change-council-of-councils/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Most+Recent%29

    01

  • #
    pat

    unbelievable. why does DM report this rubbish in such an unquestioning manner? bottom line – developing countries should throw all their money at CAGW! Bill Shorten will love this:

    7 May: Daily Mail: Cost of fighting climate change makes economic sense because improving air quality will save money and lives in long term, say scientists
    •Investing in climate change now makes economic and health returns today
    •Dramatic effort is needed to meet the Paris Agreement target of 2°C (3.6°F) rise
    •A new model says it will make returns for both current and future generations
    • Cutting green house emissions will improve air quality and save lives globally
    •The immediate cost benefits outweigh the investments made by countries now
    By Yuan Ren
    Fighting climate change will bring health and economic benefits that offset the cost of implementing the measures, a new report from Princeton scientists suggests.
    Researchers used a new computer model that looks at green house emissions to show the benefits of cutting them are not just for future generations…
    PIC: night/chimneys/”smoke”…

    Experts from the Princeton University and the University of Vermont asked the question ‘How much should the current generation invest in reducing carbon emissions for the benefit of future generations?’…
    The study used a new modelling framework which built on the RICE (Regional Integrated Climate-Economy) climate model for analysing carbon dioxide policy but also incorporates the costs and benefits of reducing air pollutant emissions.
    The original climate model was developed by Yale Economist William Nordhaus, who recently received the Nobel Prize in Economics…

    Dr Mark Budolfson, co-lead author from the University of Vermont, said: ‘Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will also reduce deaths from air pollution in communities near the emissions reductions.
    ‘We show the climate conversation doesn’t need to be about the current generation investing in the further future…

    Professor Marc Fleurbaey of Princeton University who also worked on the study, added: ‘Here, we show that accounting for the human health dimension alleviates many of these difficulties: Health benefits begin immediately, occur near where emissions are reduced, and accrue mainly in developing regions with less historical responsibility for climate change.’
    ‘The global health benefits from this climate policy could reach trillions of dollars each year, but how large these benefits will be partly depend specific air quality policies that countries adopt outside of climate change policies.

    The team found the strongest immediate health benefits in China and India which are closest to such emissions and also face the highest death rates from it.
    Dr Noah Scovronick, a co-lead author from Emory University said: ‘Some developing regions have been understandably reluctant to invest their limited resources in reducing emissions.
    ‘This and other studies demonstrate that many of these same regions are likely to gain most of the health co-benefits, which may add incentive for them to adopt stronger climate policies.’
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7000813/Fighting-climate-change-save-lives-IMMEDIATELY.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ito=1490&ns_campaign=1490

    00

  • #
    Sambar

    Arr, politics, A couple of weeks ago, a senator in the Australian government was egged. This senator does not hold the accepted views of the progressives so was condemned by all and sundry for defending his self by belting his attacker. Police required days to investigate this incident that was recorded on I phones so really no doubt as to what happened. The prime minister immediately goes on T.V. and proclaims that he hopes that the senator undergoes the “full force of the law”.
    So, as the prime minister has a failed egging inflicted on him, the perpetrator is wrestled to the floor and charges are immediately laid by police for common assault.
    not a mention of the minders feeling the full force of the law, nor days of investigation required. Open and shut case.

    As the saying goes, lucky politicians have double standards, otherwise they would have no standards at all!

    110

    • #
      yarpos

      Funny headline in the Betoota Advocate ” Bill Shorten promises millions for womens sports as female protests misses a sitter on Scott Morrison”

      60

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        I liked the local comment: Typical Green, couldn’t hit a stationary PM at 6 paces.

        50

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Jokes aside this these types of actions against sitting members of parliament are terrible for our nation, besides the imminent threat of throwing something with intent to hit a politician, an egg today a billiard ball or jar of acid tomorrow?, the kid glove handling of the perpetrators after the attacks including lack of sufficient detention was pathetic, this only sets a precedent for all future SJW snowflakes out there (plenty of them) to act out in their own fashion according to what delusion they suffer under.

      All of us in this nation under its laws are by the agreement of a majority expected to abide by those laws under the ultimate threat of the gun, excluding anyone from this threat for any personal political or social views makes a mockery of the system and will lead to lawlessness.

      50

      • #
        yarpos

        Nice theory but laws are selectively applied or discretion used very day. I guess we all have different persepctives on how far that should go or even if it should happen.

        10

  • #
    DaleC

    Does anyone know if there are accessible time series charts or historical data for the real-time data at

    http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#nem-dispatch-overview

    ?

    There is a nice block diagram of current demand/supply and interconnectors. The small arrowed blocks which show interconnector direction sometimes change colour (grey/red). What does the colour-coding signify?

    20

    • #
      yarpos

      usually that it operating normally or maxed out

      30

    • #

      Dale,

      I’ll just use one of those Interconnector boxes as an example, and it’s the one from Queensland to NSW, and there are two of them, so I’ll use the box on the right.

      Firstly, see the arrow under the box. That indicates which direction the power is being ‘sent’, so when from Qld to NSW, then the arrow is on the under side of that box, and is pulsing in movement, and vice versa from NSW to QLD. on the upper side of that box.

      Okay, now see inside that box. The two smaller numbers to the right of that larger number are the maximum power (in MW) that can be sent in either direction. One (the top one) is a lot larger, and has a negative sign before the number, and that indicates Qld to NSW.

      The larger number is the power that is currently being sent, and if it has a negative number in front of it, then that indicates the (top right smaller number) feed from Qld to NSW also. When the box is grey, it is under that max, and when it is red, it is at the maximum amount of power that can be sent.

      I don’t know of any historical records of time and flow.

      Tony.

      70

      • #
        DaleC

        Hi Tony,

        Thanks for that – it was the max-capacity bit I was missing. From spot checks over a couple of days, it looks like NSW, VIC and TAS routinely depend on QLD excess. SA is also exporting to VIC, but I presume that could change very quickly if Wind abates on a cloudy day.

        From the AEMO 30 minute supply/demand data, QLD has been increasing demand from around 2015, while the other states are flat. Is the QLD increase what is being exported (roughly)?

        It seems rather amiss that we do not have public historical interconnector flows as chartable data – like GridWatchUK provides.

        40

        • #

          Dale,

          because of line losses over distance, power transfers only occur with adjoining States, so that excess from Queensland only gets into Northern NSW and vice versa. Southern NSW into Victoria and vice versa. Tasmania only into Victoria, and vice versa. Victoria into SouthAus and vice versa.

          One thing worth watching is in fact North Queensland. There’s no major power generators (and here I mean large scale coal fired plants) north of Stanwell which is at Rockhampton, so everything North of there is right at their limit now on the small plants near each of those larger cities in the North. You look at Stanwell in isolation, and note that it hums along at half output for most of the day, and for the four hours around the evening peak (and now the morning peak as we close in on Winter) it ramps up to (near) full output at that time for all four Units. ALL of that power is going North as far as it can be sent, because keep in mind here that the distance from Rockhampton to Cairns is a lot more than Brisbane to Sydney, and if they want to expand the North like they do, then there is a definite need for large scale (reliable 24/7/365) power, and only coal fired power can do that.

          That’s why I chuckle when I hear SouthAus wants an interconnector into NSW. All their (NSW) major power generators are closer to the Coast, so there’s really no way they can ‘suck’ NSW power into SouthAus, as there’d be nothing left when it got there, and anyway, NSW is running close to maxed out on its own State already, even before Liddell closes.

          Tony.

          80

          • #
            Bill in Oz

            But Tony then propaganda here is that SA will use the new interconnector to send wind & solar elctrons to NSW.

            Given the distances, does this make sense ?

            Bill

            50

            • #
              Another Ian

              Bill

              My guess would be as Tony outlines.

              Plus extra loss as it would be going up-hill (/s)

              60

            • #

              Bill,

              what Another Ian says is correct.

              The idea that (any, if any) excess wind power generated in SouthAus being sent to anywhere East of Broken Hill is patently laughable.

              The losses would ‘eat it up’, and the same applies in the reverse direction, considering it would probably have to come from an even further distance.

              When politicians (of any ilk) float thought bubbles like this, you know they have more (of other people’s) money than sense, and sense would surely dictate they would take advice on something like that, and if they consulted an electrical engineer, he would say ….. ‘please don’t say that, and if you do, don’t even think of mentioning my name.’

              The idea that they would mention it in the first place, and highlight that they will be using it to send excess wind power into NSW hides the fact that it would be more of a desperate ploy to get power FROM NSW, and as I mentioned above, they (NSW) really have no extra.

              Tony.

              40

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                toorightmate

                Tony,
                Bill Shorten might have us believe that line losses only occur with coal-fired power.

                30

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              Graeme No.3

              The excess SA wind will supply the vast industrial complexes in Balranald and Buronga. They will obligingly shut down when the wind doesn’t blow. Did someone say sarc?

              50

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              Bill in Oz

              Wonderfull to read good common sense on this !
              Thank you Tony Ian & Graeme.
              Our real problem is
              How to inform our
              Beloved ill-informed
              Liberal Party Premier,
              Stephen Marshall
              Who has come out
              All guns blazing
              for this crazy idea.
              And subsidisng the cost
              With gazillions of tax payers money.
              We elected the Liberals
              To make things better
              Powerwise
              Not worse !
              Shall we just weep ?

              30

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      Peter C

      The thing that upset me when I looked at NEM chart is that Victoria is the only State then is using more power than it is producing. Victoria is buying electric power from NSW, Tas and SA!

      50

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        Victoria is the only State then is using more power than it is producing. Victoria is buying electric power from NSW, Tas and SA!

        Pretty much standard operating procedure really.

        Tony.

        60

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        Chad

        If you watch it regularly, you will see that SA frequently has to rely on VIC + Tas to keep its lights on.

        50

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        yarpos

        Thats a moment in time, it moves around a lot. With VIC coal generators maxed out it seems that any downtine planned or unplanned is going to push towards importing power.

        NSW also seems fairly addicted to QLD coal , and had been for quite a while.

        30

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    pat

    more child abuse:

    7 May: Thomson Reuters Foundation: Children may be their parents’ best climate-change teachers, scientists find
    By Sebastien Malo
    Teenagers in the U.S. coastal state of North Carolina who were schooled in the basics of man-made climate change saw their parents grow more concerned about the issue, scientists said on Monday in the first study of its kind.
    The results suggested nationwide protests by young people urging action to tackle global warming could influence the views of adults at home, researchers told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

    Danielle Lawson, lead author of the study published by the journal Nature Climate Change and a researcher at North Carolina State University, said the findings could “empower” ongoing efforts by students, such as the “Fridays for Future” marches…

    In the study, parents whose middle school-age children followed a curriculum that included learning about climate change increased their own level of concern by nearly 23 percent on average, the researchers found.
    For conservative parents, the rise was significantly higher, averaging 28 percent.

    The two-year experiment, involving about 240 students and nearly 300 parents, was the first to demonstrate that climate change education for children promotes parental concern, a North Carolina State University statement said.
    But the results could only be generalized to North Carolina coastal counties, where the experiment took place, said Lawson…

    Brett Levy, an assistant professor of education at the New York-based University at Albany who was not involved in the study, said the results potentially spoke to dynamics at play as students skipped school to demand climate action.
    “Sometimes people who participate in protests learn about the issues involved,” he said. “This study suggests that young people involved in these climate demonstrations could influence the views of their parents.”…
    https://news.yahoo.com/children-may-parents-best-climate-150000889.html

    10

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      Kinky Keith

      Meanwhile, back in Australia, a “study” by a university professor has shown that sniffer dogs used by police at Rave Parties are causing deaths.

      Apparently the kiddies get spooked when they arrive at the gate and see the dog patrols so they down the bliss bombs they are carrying to avoid detection.

      The rapid ingestion leads to overdosing and is caused by the police.

      All this sort of analysis done by someone whose annual cost to the taxpayer would be in the order of $150,000.

      Who is in charge of this country?

      KK

      70

      • #
        yarpos

        So really sick of this topic.

        If you are a yound person who wants to take risks, be prepared to wear the consequences. Dont expect the world to run around in circles protecting you from yourself.

        I dont mean this vindictively as I have been a risk taker all my life in terms of my physical activities/sports. Totally get it, but when it goes pear shaped you own it, nobody else.

        50

        • #
          Sambar

          Your quite right. Most of us take risks but these risks are balanced against probability. I would consider the probability of illegal drugs causing me harm an unacceptable risk. Some alarm bells would be the money involved, the dodgy supplier, the unknown source and lack of quality control. i.e. on balance the risk is unacceptable.
          On the other hand I went for a hunt yesterday. I’m mid seventies, did it on my own, all rough country covered 11 kilometres according to the magic device.
          The risks are well known, on my own, falls, bad weather etc. balanced against my experience, some one knew the general area I was in and these days I carry the locator and a few other little survival bits and pieces. The probability of serious harm or death, while there, is quite low. Ergo a risk I was prepared to take.

          50

          • #
            Bobl

            It bothers me that so many people are prepared to eat pills brewed in some bikies disused back yard toilet. No health standards, no guarantees of composition, nothing. Now that’s risky.

            50

  • #
    DaleC

    To clarify, I’ve got the demand/supply – I’m after the interconnector flows.

    10

  • #
    David Maddison

    Some sceptical energies need to be applied to the issue of waste management via landfill. Leftists keep saying how we are running out of landfill sites but this is ridiculous, there are plenty of holes in the ground that can be filled. Also, the material that goes into landfill is not wasted. It is a potentially valuable future concentrated source of metals and hydrocarbons and could be mined for that purpose. Apart from that, in proper countries such as in Europe and North America they incinerate waste and use it to produce energy, something that is prohibited in Australia.

    80

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      David:

      There is a better way; take all the organic matter and subject it to anaerobic digestion. Clean up** the resulting methane and burn it.
      There was a large factory in NW USA running in the ’80s on the gas from waste in a 53 acre rubbish dump next door. All that had been done to it was a clay layer on top, and pipes through that later.

      ** the smell would offend any Green inclined users. Otherwise let it be and have a warning of leaks.

      60

      • #
        Sambar

        But Graeme you do understand that politicians are incapable of any sort of rational / logical thought. Many years ago ( the seventies ) a new sewage treatment works was buit at Carrum in the south east of Melbourne. At this time electricity in Victoria was provided by the State Electricity Commission ( SEC ), so, although the engineering plans for Carrum included the production of electricity from fermentation gases, this electricity was NEVER to be fed back into the grid. Carrum treatment works could produce electricity for use on site only, excess gas was just flamed. Stupid waste of resources that I would guess has never been corrected. On the same note this sewage treatment works cleans all waste water to potable standards then pumps this about a 100 kilometeres to an out fall in Bass straight. Why not recycle this water via Cardinia Reservoir about 20 kilometres away? Well the media opposed this idea with scare stories of recycled sewage going into the drinking water system, which is of course 100% incorrect. it is the WATER that is recycled. I reckon I could get a 97% consensus of scientists that would say purified sterilised water WAS safe to drink. What do the polies do, build a desal plant in the same general area as the treated out fall, then pump desalinated water another 100 kilometres uphill to _____ the Cardinia reservoir.

        70

        • #
          Ghibli Levante

          The SEPP as it was originally known was designed in the late sixties to treat waste water to potable standard. It was also designed to produce its own electricity but could only manage about supply about 40% of its requirements from methane. IIRC the original pumps for Outfall Pumping Station were powered by WH Allen V16 Dual Fuel(diesel/methane) engines. So there was never any spare capacity to return to the grid.

          The public were against recyling the treated water, therefore a pipline was constructed at substantial cost, to discharge treated water into Bass Strait near Gunnamatta beach on the Mornington Peninsula. Unfortunately water quality was abysmal and ear and throat infections were common in anyone who entered the water. Much of the local seaweeds disappeared as well, due to the high ammonia content.

          The plant underwent a substantial upgrade a few years ago and water quality has improved greatly. The population are still strongly against using recycled water for consumption. Thats why they built a Desal Plant and its at Wonthaggi, a long long way from Gunnamatta.

          40

        • #
          Bobl

          There are chemicals that can pass a reverse osmosis membrane, the potable water can for example have traces of ice, and cocaine and prescription drugs in it.

          Only real way to clean water is to fractionalise it (distill it) even so the vapour pressure of some impurities might be similar enough to water to get through.

          10

          • #
            Ghibli Levante

            Bob,

            The chemicals which pass through an R.O. membrane are generally in quantities not hazardous to health. The water at Wonthaggi is drawn from Bass Strait so the items you mention are not really a problem there.

            Like many people, when travelling years ago, you were better off consuming the local beer rather than taking your chances with the local water supply. Bottled water is probably a better option for me now!

            Cheers

            30

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      There are indeed a lot of available land for rubbish. It’s the legal requirements surrounding the site that is the challenge.

      First is the local population are usually very resistant.
      Second is the control of leachate into the substrate soil. Clay and plastic lining can solve these issues, it’s just added cost.

      30

    • #
      Ghibli Levante

      Most of the landfill sites in suburban Melbourne have reached capacity but there is still plenty of vacant land available if you want to continue with this primitive system of Waste Disposal. The only problem is these available sites are located well out of the metro area and as a result the cost of transporting domestic waste there would prove to be expensive. Nobody would be happy to pay another $200 or $300 a year on their rates to cover the cost.

      Mining old landfills would be a potentially hazardous exercise given the amount of uncontrolled toxic waste dumped over the years.

      There are many landfill sites across the country that recover methane for electricity generation. Hampton Park in Melbourne has I believe, six 1MW generators and Rye on the Mornington Peninsula has one 1MW genny.

      Incineration of waste for electricity generation is not prohibited in Australia: there are several projeccts under construction and many more planned. Google it.

      40

      • #
        Chad

        Transport of waste to remote landfil sites is common practice in nsw,
        Much of sydneys waste is transported by truck and train , 200km, to Gouldburns Woodlawn site for landfill.
        And there was/is a huge issue with Sydney landfil material being trucked 800km to Qqueensland for dumping because the reduced waste dumping tarrifs there.
        So, cost and distance are not a limiting factors.

        30

        • #
          Ghibli Levante

          Chad,

          You are correct cost and distance are not limiting factors: provided you can find someone to pay for it.

          I’m not familiar with the waste disposal setup in Sydney, but if it’s anything like Melbourne, most landfill sites in the metro area would have been closed years ago. To dispose of your rubbish, you would take it to a Transfer Station, throw it in the Push Pit from where it is loaded into a truck and taken to landfill. I’ve noticed that disposal of waste in Sydney costs in the order of $360 to $400 a tonne. Our local Shire operates its own landfill and the cost is $240 a tonne. Its much cheaper if you don’t have to cart it away for disposal.

          A few years ago, our local Shire was under pressure to close the landfill. The nearest available site was some 60 km away. To take our waste there would have meant additional travel for the compactor trucks and the increased turnaround time would have required the contractor to increase his fleet and employ more drivers. He wasn’t going to do that for love. A new cell was subsequently constructed at the existing site.

          At Woodlawn much of the waste is diverted away from landfill and recycled. They also generate electricity from the methane. I’d guess the rail line already existed which saved them a few dollars.

          Quite a few NSW businesses trucked their waste to Ipswich as it was cheaper to dispose of. This was due to the fact that while all States had introduced a landfill levy, Campbell Newman decided to remove the levy from Queensland Landfills. As a result, Queensland finished up with a huge quantity of NSW rubbish. Interestingly the QLD government are now constructing new landfills and are reintroducing the landfill levy from July 1 this year. That should stop the waste coming from NSW.

          Cheers

          30

      • #
        Bobl

        I’m fond of breaking down plastic and cellulose waste to oil and making fuel with it.

        20

  • #
    Greg in NZ

    “Gorgeous spring snowy scene at Lago Di Braies, South Tyrol, Northern Italy this morning 5th of May”.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1125151331654754307/photo/1

    “People have been advised not to take walks in wooded areas, especially in deciduous regions, as wet snow caught in trees could cause branches to fall off”.

    https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/late-winter_record-may-snowfall-in-some-parts-of-switzerland/44941678

    Surely our Cuckoo Minister isn’t pulling one of those ‘old white man Trump’ OK hand signals, is he?

    https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018694091/james-shaw-on-climate-change-plan

    [for your own sanity's sake DO NOT listen to the interview, complete and utter jabberwocky gibberish mumbo-jumbo]

    41

    • #
      Sambar

      And here in the low part of the Victorian high country snow is forecast for tonight with the BoM predicting a BUMPER SKI SEASON. Whatever happened to the “end of snow”
      Wont someone think of the children, all of these mixed messages must be causing them enormous distress !

      50

      • #
        yarpos

        Many of the brats having their Friday off for climate protests will be up at Buller skiing next month and thinking nothing of it.

        20

        • #
          Sambar

          Ha , your right. And driven to the Mount in dads brand new 4 wheel drive. Sadly they are not capable of joining the dots.

          10

  • #
    David Maddison

    Given that there are so many “snouts in the trough” who are profiting from unreliable energy production, it would be beneficial to have a website where such individuals and corporations are named and shamed.

    60

  • #
    Peter C

    11 days out from the election now.

    I have been doing some duty at a pre-polling station for Kevin Bailey and the Australian Conservatives.

    My assessment of voters is that they have made up their minds how to vote before they get to the station. The how to vote pamphlets may help a few with ordering their choices but it is too late to change peoples minds.

    I have put up some new posters which say “Sick of the Greens – vote Conservative in the Senate”

    I think they are better than what we had before.

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  • #
    Crakar24

    A woman walks into a shop and strikes up a conversation with a woman and a small child eventually:

    Woman with child: So where do you work?

    Woman: I am a cattle farmer near My Pleasant

    Woman with child then launches into a tirade of condemnation, apparently the cattle farmer was causing the planet to die, much of the language was not fit for a child’s ears.

    This is crakar24 signing off from ground zero Bumphuc Idaho…..sorry South Australia

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    • #
      AndyG55

      Would have been much better if you had started..

      “A woman walks into a butcher shop……. “

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      • #
        Crakar24

        Yeah but I wanted to keep it factually correct

        30

      • #
        Yonniestone

        A Green walks into a bar with a duck on his head. The bartender says, “Can I help you?” The duck says, “Yeah, you can get this leech off my butt!”

        Bob Brown walks into a bar and sees a dog lying in the corner licking his balls. He turns to the bartender and says,
        “Boy, I wish I could do that.”
        The Bartender replies, “You’d better try petting him first.”

        Sarah Hanson-Young and a duck walk into a bar.
        The bartender says, “Where’d you get the pig.”
        Hanson-Young says, “That’s not a pig, that’s a duck.”
        He says, “I was talking to the duck.”

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  • #
    David Maddison

    I didn’t realise that in the US and Canada, some people eat bear sausage. It comes from legally killed bears that have been culled by hunters to control their numbers.

    A discussion about bear sausage: https://youtu.be/A432TMEKy8c

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  • #
    pat

    7 May: AP: Climate change missing as US defends Arctic policy
    by Matthew Lee; Jari Tanner in Helsinki, Finland, Jan M. Olsen in Copenhagen, Denmark, Dorothee Thiesing in Rovaniemi, Finland and David Keyton in Rovaniemi, Finland contributed.
    ROVANIEMI, Finland — The Arctic is melting, but don’t ask U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to talk about climate change. Nor even to agree on a text that mentions it.
    For the Trump administration, disappearing sea ice in the world’s “high north” appears to be first and foremost an economic opportunity to exploit rather than a crisis to mitigate.

    That position was made clear by Pompeo over two days of meetings in the northern Finnish Arctic city of Rovaniemi involving the foreign ministers of the eight members of the Arctic Council — Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States.
    “Steady reductions in sea ice are opening new naval passageways and new opportunities for trade, potentially slashing the time it takes for ships to travel between Asia and the West by 20 days,” he said in a speech Monday, which was met with polite but muted applause.
    “Arctic sea lanes could become the 21st century’s Suez and Panama canals.”

    Finnish Foreign Minister Timo Soini, whose country is wrapping up its two-year chairmanship of the council, said Tuesday there was no joint declaration given the inability to get the U.S. to agree on a text that included language about climate change.
    Instead, a brief joint statement reaffirmed a “commitment to maintain peace, stability and constructive co-operation in the Arctic.”
    Soini told reporters that he didn’t want to “name and blame anybody” and called the outcome “good enough” for all parties…

    Over the summit, Pompeo also defended President Donald Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate accord in 2017, a day after a U.N. biodiversity report warned that extinction loomed for over 1 million species of plants and animals.
    “Collective goals, even when well-intentioned, are not always the answer,” Pompeo said. “They are rendered meaningless, even counterproductive, as soon as one nation fails to comply.”…

    “I’m sure it was a good party,” Pompeo said of the negotiations in Paris. “I’m sure it felt good to sign the agreement. But at the end of the day, what matters to human health, what matters to the citizens of the world, is that we actually have an impact on improving health. And our technology, our innovation, the R&D we put in in the United States, that’s what will drive better climatic outcomes, that’s what will create cleaner air and safer drinking water, and that’s what I hope the whole world will focus on.”…READ ALL
    https://news.yahoo.com/climate-change-missing-us-defends-arctic-policy-075115065.html

    50

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      pat:

      What melting arctic ice? I’ve seen graphs showing yearly fluctuations but the area of ice stays fairly constant.
      I know the Greenies keep rabitting on about the floating Arctic ice melting, and the coming rise in sea levels but I ignore such stupidity. Not so the Canadian Coast Guard who are charging Greenies for the costs of rescueing them from the “melted” summer ice.
      That’s put a dampener on the annual parade of activists ignorant of Archimedes principle (approx. 220 BC) trying to float long enough for a BBC photo-Op. And the Russians (whose climate models are the most accurate despite ignoring CO2) are building bigger Ice Breakers. Do they know something?

      50

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Do they know something?

        They do. They’ve got Hillary’s emails and the photos of Billy boy.

        Ice wouldn’t melt in his mouth. Not to mention butter.

        20

  • #
  • #
    Ian Wilson

    BOMBSHELL!! – World’s top climate scientists admit the climate models are wrong!!!!

    The bottom line: We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.

    N.B. Ben Santer and Michael Mann are among those authoring this publication.

    Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates

    Benjamin D. Santer, John C. Fyfe, Giuliana Pallotta, Gregory M. Flato, Gerald A. Meehl, Matthew H. England, Ed Hawkins, Michael E. Mann, Jeffrey F. Painter, Céline Bonfils, Ivana Cvijanovic, Carl Mears, Frank J. Wentz, Stephen Po-Chedley, Qiang Fu & Cheng-Zhi Zou
    Nature Geoscience volume 10, pages 478–485 (2017)

    https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2973

    Abstract
    In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble. Because observations and coupled model simulations do not have the same phasing of natural internal variability, such decadal differences in simulated and observed warming rates invariably occur. Here we analyze global-mean tropospheric temperatures from satellites and climate model simulations to examine whether warming rate differences over the satellite era can be explained by internal climate variability alone. We find that in the last two decades of the twentieth century, differences between modeled and observed tropospheric temperature trends are broadly consistent with internal variability. Over most of the early twenty-first century, however, model tropospheric warming is substantially larger than observed; warming rate differences are generally outside the range of trends arising from internal variability. The probability that multi-decadal internal variability fully explains the asymmetry between the late twentieth and early twenty-first century results is low (between zero and about 9%). It is also unlikely that this asymmetry is due to the combined effects of internal variability and a model error in climate sensitivity. We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.

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    • #
      Crakar24

      So with the obfuscation removed we find the forcing from co2 to produce WV in the troposphere to be greatly exaggerated. What’s not said is we need to reprogram our models with a much lower climate sensitivity to reflect the sat data.

      The lowering of the CS will then have far reaching repercussions in the field of climate science and ergo government policy.

      Therefore you won’t find that written in this study

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      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        So, this is really getting serious now.

        1. The models are wrong.

        2. The temperature record is wrong.

        3. Snow will not be a thing of the past.

        4. The polar bears will live.

        5. The Arctic and Antarctic ice is not disappearing.

        6. Hurricanes are not increasing and nor are tornadoes.

        Cripes! What to do?

        I know.

        Let’s change the subject.

        Species extinction is 97% certain unless we stop man-made CO2.

        Catastrophic Anthropogenic Species Extinction (CASE) has a nice ring to it.

        Let’s run with that.

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    • #
      AndyG55

      ie.. “we KNOW our models are crap, but we will squirm our way out of saying so”.

      71

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      Yes but they wont admit its a scam to start with. So they cover their ass to hide what really is going on (with the scam).
      Mann should be charged with f r a u d.

      40

    • #
      StephenP

      A good example of Richard Feynman’s exposition.
      Think of a hypothesis, test it against actual results, if it disagrees then the hypothesis is WRONG.
      It didn’t matter how clever you are, or how many people agree with you, IT IS WRONG!

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    • #
      Peter C

      Even though the models are wrong, they are even more certain that Humans are causing climate catastrophe.

      On February 25, 2019 Santer et al. published the paper Celebrating the anniversary of three key evens in climate change science in Nature Climate Change, claiming to have reached the 5-sigma “gold standard level” of statistical proof of human influence in global climate change using three sets of satellite data.[10].

      20

    • #
      tom0mason

      That would fit with this criticism of climate models https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017MS001067

      Where the conclusion says –

      5 Conclusions

      Due to the vast range of spatial and temporal scales in GCMs, many important physics processes are handled using individual subgrid‐scale parameterizations. To facilitate ease of model development, these parameterizations are built using a modular framework and coupled together using a sequential time splitting algorithm. A drawback to this approach is that sequential time splitting algorithms are not commutative and thus the model solution can also be impacted by the order in which the parameterizations are applied. Furthermore, at the long time‐steps used in climate simulation, O(30 min), the change to the model state following each process is large.

      The work shown here has demonstrated that changing process order can have a very large impact on model behavior. Comparison of model solutions against observed data for a set of 24 simulations with different process orderings has shown that the impact of process order can be dramatic. A near doubling of RMSE is found in some variables and a 20% improvement in RMSE is found for others. Among the top performing models in terms of RMSE, four of the top five are the process orderings with only the deep convection moved. This is unsurprising considering that deep convection played the weakest role in determining the differences between process reorderings and because the default ordering has undergone years of optimization. Interestingly, only one of the top five performing models in terms of global mean error fit into this category and the other four are those where surface/turbulence/dynamics follow shallow convection and macro/microphysics but precede radiation. The top performing sequence in terms of global mean, SC‐MM‐Oth‐DC‐Ra, is also among the top five performing runs in terms of RMSE. This shows the importance of a periodic assessment of the impact of changing process ordering. In this case, it is possible that the dynamics solver used by an earlier version of the model did not provide a very realistic state to physics, but recent advances have changed that situation. When model improvements are made, a second look at coupling order may be beneficial. Optimizing process order in conjunction with proper tuning is likely to yield a more skillful model. Exploration of this joint optimization problem is important future work.

      Clustering is used to identify the changes in process ordering which most impact model behavior. The climate state passed to radiation is found to be the primary source of simulation differences. Shallow convection returns a state with 50% higher LS‐LWP than returned by macro/microphysics, so when radiation acts on a state most recently modified by shallow convection it has much larger SW reflection and LW trapping. Secondary effects are related to the state passed to the portion of the code handling surface fluxes, resolved‐scale fluid dynamics, and turbulence. These processes respond differently depending on whether they are passed the state most recently modified by microphysics, shallow convection, or deep convection. The fact that model state changes so much from process to process suggests that care must be taken in interpreting model output. In order to study the factors affecting a particular process (like precipitation or radiation), those factors need to be sampled from the state used to calculate that process rather than taken blindly from the default model output.

      Process order is shown here to affect not only current‐climate behavior, but also the model’s prediction of climate sensitivity. Because prediction is the motivation for building climate models, this finding provides strong support for the idea that process ordering should be considered carefully during model development. The main source of spread in net feedback parameter is traced back to SW cloud scattering feedback over the Southern Ocean. Process orderings with lower LWP in the current climate have much larger increases in Southern Ocean cloud albedo in the future (more negative feedback). The exact mechanism for this shift is still unclear, but several promising possibilities were explored. First, Southern Ocean T‐LWP shifts look a lot like a simple poleward translation of current‐climate T‐LWP. If this was the case, the larger current‐climate T‐LWP in clusters 4–6 would naturally produce bigger T‐LWP change as they translate. Because equatorward cloud changes are more important for SW reflection and shift induces a decrease in T‐LWP at lower latitudes and an increase at higher latitudes, bigger current‐climate LWP would mean more positive SW scattering feedback. Kay et al. (2014) argue against this interpretation, however, claiming that regime‐dependent stratification changes, increase in adiabatic LWP with warming, and ice‐liquid phase transition are the reasons for increased Southern‐Ocean cloudiness in the future. McCoy et al. (2015) note that model configurations with more ice in the current climate have more negative Southern Ocean cloud changes because they have greater capacity to transition to liquid in the future. We investigated the importance of phase transition by computing the temperature at which 50% of Southern‐Ocean condensate is liquid and 50% is ice. Differences between clusters 1–3 and 4–6 are much smaller than McCoy et al. (2015) found in the CMIP5 ensemble, suggesting that different treatment of mixed‐phase clouds is probably not the main reason for the large differences in net feedback parameter found here.

      The key aspect of process ordering which determines whether a simulation will have low current‐climate LWP and less decrease in future cloudiness or greater current‐climate LWP and larger decrease in future cloudiness is whether radiation sees a model state which has more recently been affected by shallow convection or microphysics. This makes sense because the microphysics parameterization handles microphysics and cloud physics in a very different (and simplified) manner relative to microphysics. Because convection is one of the more uncertain and crudely handled parameterizations, we conclude that it is important to position macro and microphysics after shallow convection but before radiation. This finding motivates us to revisit the question of whether there is any best‐practices guidance for how to order sequentially split processes. We conclude that best‐practices process ordering satisfies the following rules:

      Macrophysics should directly precede microphysics because it produces the condensate that microphysics acts on—they are two parts of a single process.
      Radiation should see the most accurate cloud state possible. This is probably the state after microphysics or dynamics. Radiation should not act on the state after convection.
      Turbulence should be ordered as close to the surface schemes as possible since it is the mechanism by which surface fluxes communicate with the atmosphere.
      It is unclear whether deep or shallow convection should be called first, but this choice makes surprisingly little difference in our simulations (not shown). It makes intuitive sense to keep deep and shallow convection together unless there is compelling reason to do otherwise.

      Of the 24 orderings considered here, one quarter (the default ordering and five others) satisfy these best‐practices criteria. The fact that orderings not following our best‐practices have very different climates illustrates the need to carefully consider process coupling. In this light, it would be desirable to develop even tighter guidance on what constitutes the best process order. What is the optimal placement for dynamics? Where should turbulence and surface coupling go? E3SM code structure prevented us from separately exploring these after‐surface‐coupling processes in the current study; doing so in future work would be useful.

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      • #
        Kinky Keith

        The basic conclusion that could act as a substitute for that long extract is much simpler and involves basic modeling procedure.

        First and foremost it is essential to know what factors are involved in the process being modeled from start to finish.
        Where factors and interactions are not quantifiable you have problems as in the climate models.

        A sensible analysis of the thermodynamic consequences of day and night on Earth’s atmospheric temperature seems to have been ignored in models and this highlights the ridiculosity of the claim that there Are real, functional climate models.

        The whole idea that there are functional climate models linking CO2 concentrations with atmospheric temperature is not true.

        They are junk and won’t work because the basic premises used are incorrect and dressing things up by using concepts like the Stephan-Boltzman equation incorrectly certainly doesn’t help.

        The massive computing power devoted to running these models has been nothing but window dressing.

        Basic processes must be established first and this hasn’t been done.

        KK

        30

      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        The thing that bugs me about these models, given the claim that the “science is in” by many of the “experts”, is that climate sensitivity is considered to be a valid output of the models.
        Why?
        I used to think that climate sensitivity should be a known input to such models, and known from (reproducible) experiments from physics. (My personal view is that number is zero, at least at current concentrations.)

        In addition, some modellers have recently claimed that that same sensitivity is larger than previously thought, even though the old numbers have consistently given out put temperatures greater than observed.

        Yet they continue to throw their garbage output at us.
        Cheers
        Dave B

        30

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          David

          Not zero. I did some calculations with the Idea Gas Laws and estimated that we might face a rise in temperature of 0.07℃ when we get to 820 ppm of CO2.
          Of course, this is only an estimate, still it gave a figure for Venus of 398℃ v 400℃ from Wikipedia. Fairly accurate for Pluto and for Triton (the moon of Neptune). Hopeless for Mercury and Mars which have negligible atmospheres.

          20

          • #
            David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

            Thanks Graeme,
            So the IPCC number is only out by a factor of somewhere between 20 and 50? I guess that’s an improvement.
            Cheers
            Dave B

            10

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘…systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.’

      Its a CO2 sensitivity issue, massive fail.

      One external forcing would be a quiet sun.

      30

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Offence intended, Ms Figueres, no one voted for you. Take your socialist message and shove it …

    ‘Appalling’ policy inaction draws former UN climate leader into federal election campaign

    “The United Nations’ former climate change czar has intervened in the Australian election, publicly backing four female independent candidates and calling out “appalling inaction in Canberra” on climate change.

    Christiana Figueres led the UN’s global negotiating process that culminated in the 2015 Paris climate change agreement, and is now a climate leader at the World Bank.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-07/canberra-inaction-on-climate-change-appallling/11088336

    2015, Figueres: First time the world economy is transformed intentionally

    “This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model, for the first time in human history”, Ms Figueres stated at a press conference in Brussels.

    “This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the industrial revolution.

    http://www.unric.org/en/latest-un-buzz/29623-figueres-first-time-the-world-economy-is-transformed-intentionally

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    pat

    6 May: Guardian: UK urged to take lead on biodiversity as UN issues urgent warning
    Ministers announce report on economic case for biodiversity, but activists insist actions, not studies, are needed
    by Jonathan Watts
    The British government has commissioned Sir Partha Dasgupta, a professor at Cambridge University, to write a report on the economic case for biodiversity as policymakers across the planet are urged to step up efforts to reverse the alarming decline of the natural world.
    Senior United Nations officials praised the announcement, ***which was made at the G7 environment ministers’ meeting at the weekend, and expressed hope it will lead to a biodiversity study that is as influential as the Stern review on the economics of climate change…

    Cristiana Pașca-Palmer, the head of the UN’s top biodiversity organisation, told the Guardian the response showed the nature crisis is higher than ever before on the political agenda. She hoped governments will now commit to ambitious measures ahead of next year’s UN biodiversity summit in Beijing, which will set global targets for the following decades…

    Dasgupta’s challenge is arguably more complex, as it will cover all life on Earth, much of which has intrinsic value, spiritual importance and aesthetic beauty that is not possible to quantify in pounds and pence. But he is highly regarded and has experience not just as a professor of economics, but also philosophy, as well as being a former director of an ethics programme at Stanford University and an expert in game theory. He helped to establish the journal Environment and Development Economics and is a cofounder of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at Cambridge…
    “The report is a superb idea and there is no one better to lead such a project,” said Robert Watson, the chair of the UN Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services…
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/06/uk-urged-to-take-lead-on-biodiversity-as-un-issues-urgent-warning-global-assessment-Dasgupta

    ***alread announced in March:

    13 March: UK Independent: New homes will no longer be heated by gas from 2025, government says
    Fossil fuel heating systems banned in bid to tackle emissions
    by Chiara Giordano
    Along with measures on climate change, (Chancellor Philip) Hammond also announced that the government would mandate “biodiversity net gain” for developments in England to ensure new housing and infrastructure does not hit wildlife.
    A comprehensive global review of the link between biodiversity and economic growth, to be led by Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta, emeritus professor of economics at Cambridge, will also be carried out as part of efforts to stem declines in wildlife.
    Campaign group 10:10 Climate Action’s director Max Wakefield backed the move to end fossil fuel heating in new homes from 2025…
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/gas-ban-new-homes-fossil-fuels-government-phillip-hammond-spring-statement-a8821941.html

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      pat

      just for the record, as I’m not sure it’s been noted as yet – 1,800 pages. yet UK needs yet another report from Dadgupta!

      6 May: VOA: UN Report Warns 1 Million Species Face Extinction
      Nico Pinault in Paris contributed to this report
      The ***1,800-page report, which was released at the 7th session of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) in Paris, said fixing the problem will require transformative changes.

      Robert Watson, who chaired the 132-nation meeting, said, “We are eroding the very foundations of our economies, livelihoods, food security, health and quality-of-life worldwide. We really need to get governments to think beyond GDP.”…
      https://www.voanews.com/a/un-report-warns-of-human-destruction-of-natural-world/4905472.html

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        Maptram

        I wonder how many copies of the 1800 page report were printed and how many trees were cut down to make the paper.

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          Greg in NZ

          Chop-chop-chop… chop-chop-chop… the sound of saving the planet! And lest we forget – whoosh! – all those private jets and limousines carting Very Important P•••• off to their next international 5-star conference. Would you like some carbon with your footprint, Madam/Sir? Or simply eat humble pie…

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    Travis T. Jones

    Via Bjorn Lomborg on twitter:

    species lost, be wary

    Be wary: “we’re losing a million species in next decades” of 8 million

    We heard the same story almost 40 years ago:

    The US official “Global 2000″ report from 1980 claimed we’d see up to 2 million species die from 1980-2000

    https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/pdf-archive/global2000reporttothepresident–enteringthe21stcentury-01011991.pdf

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      Greg in NZ

      From the report: “The time: the year 2000. The place: Earth… nearly 2 million species of plants, birds, insects and animals have vanished”. Two million? Did that ever happen? Yet now in 2019 it’s only 1 million will vanish. Things have obviously improved by 50%, huzzah for humanity!

      Even Jimmy Carter sounded upbeat in his final paragraph of the introduction: “I don’t have any sense of impending doom or despair. I think that things can be changed”. Ah yes, everything must change (adapt? evolve? improve?) except those pesky ever-changing climates. Klimaphobia?

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    pat

    ABC has so much CAGW propaganda these days, it’s hard to keep up with it.

    ***just like XR, Greens appeal is to “upper middle class” notes Sabra Lane, tho Di Natale disputes it. of course, it’s one time ABC is right, and it tells us a lot about the make-up of this group of people:

    (NO AUDIO AS YET) 8 May: ABC AM: UN report a ‘wake up call’ on climate change: (Richard) di Natale
    By Sabra Lane on AM
    TRANSCRIPT EXCERPTS:
    SABRA LANE: ***Upper middle-class voters seem to be attracted to you, but in seats like Wills and Batman, for example, blue-collar voters seem to be shunning you. There appears to be a class problem with your party?

    RICHARD DI NATALE: When you’re talking about primary votes in the high 30s and 40 per cent, that’s a pretty healthy and solid vote, Sabra and we are getting a lot of support from people right across the spectrum, from young people, older folk, working class people, professionals.
    We’re a party that cuts across the divide when it comes to class, we’re a party where we do get very strong support from people and let me give an example of that, Sabra, we’re the only party who’s got a plan for coal workers.
    Right now we’re facing a million species on the verge of extinction, a million, in that damning report yesterday.
    We know that the single biggest problem we have when it comes to tackling climate change is coal – that is the biggest cause of climate change and the only party looking after coal workers right now is the Greens…READ ON
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/programs/am/un-report-a-wake-up-call-on-climate-change:di-natale/11090084

    15min in, following Di Natale interview, Sabra does promo for Friday’s AM program segment in Victorian seat of Higgins. why do so many older, mainly conservative voters no longer identify with the Liberal Party? second voice grab: there’s one issue, climate change, it is the mammoth in the room. if we don’t address that issue, there will be no earth to inherit.

    Di Natale segment begins at 7min39sec:

    AUDIO: 29min31sec: ABC AM: Wed 8 May – Third leaders debate set for tonight
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/programs/am/am/11065020

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      pat

      as with Sabra, virtually no interruptions from Leigh Sales:

      VIDEO: 7min40sec: 7 May: ABC 7.30 Report: Richard Di Natale says the Coalition are ‘the real extremists’
      Posted Tue 7 May 2019, 9:47pm Updated Wed 8 May 2019, 7:42am
      TRANSCRIPT BEGINS:
      LEIGH SALES, PRESENTER: As we saw earlier, One Nation could be under threat from Clive Palmer’s resurrected political party, and both those parties have struck preference deals with either the Liberals or Nationals in a bid to claw their way into Parliament.
      The Prime Minister’s defence of the Liberals’ deal with Clive Palmer on this program last night was that the Greens and Labor are just as much of a threat to the Australian economy as Palmer.
      To ask about that, 7.30 invited the Greens’ leader, Richard Di Natale, for an interview…

      RICHARD DI NATALE: Oh, well, Scott Morrison will say or do anything to hold onto the job.
      He’s clearly got no integrity. He’s prepared to smear and tell bald-faced lies. He talks about extremism. The extremism in Australian politics is at the heart of this government.
      When the Prime Minister walks in and waves a lump of coal around, when we’re facing a climate emergency, when you see the racism and division at the heart of this government through Peter Dutton and some of his comments – indeed, the Prime Minister himself – the real extremists are the Liberal-National Party and we desperately need to turf them out…

      We’ve just had, today, a release from UN-backed scientists – a million species about to be lost, here in Australia, thousands of them.
      More fires, more floods. We’re going to lose the Great Barrier Reef. The Murray-Darling Basin on the brink of collapse.
      We need to take urgent action. We need to do it quickly.
      At the heart of that is addressing the key issue that’s driving climate change and it’s coal.
      If you don’t have a plan to transition away from coal to renewables, you’ve got no climate plan.
      We can’t keep opening up new coal mines, new gas fields, drilling new oil wells. We have to keep fossil fuels in the ground and drive that transition…

      RICHARD DI NATALE: Well, I think Paul Keating belled the cat yesterday – coal’s got no long-term future so we’ve got to actually plan for this transition.
      That’s what we’re doing, we’re planning for it.
      We’re going to create 180,000 new jobs by transitioning away from coal to renewables.
      What we’re going to do is going to ensure that we have a pathway for people working in those communities who will lose their job regardless.
      We’re going to implement a carbon price…ETC
      https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/richard-di-natale-says-the-coalition-are-the-real/11089498

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    pat

    ABC PM yesterday:

    AUDIO: 5min11sec: 7 May: ABC PM: Sydney enterprise working to redress biodiversity crisis
    By Sarah Dingle on PM
    Backed by 15,000 scientific and government sources, the report on the planet’s failing biodiversity is in part about climate change — but more broadly, about human activity that is breaking down the networks that sustain life.
    Experts say that there are practical things communities and individuals can do to boost biodiversity, with making greater use of indigenous knowledge and greening our cities high on the list.
    One enterprise in Sydney’s CBD, the Yerrabingin Rooftop Garden, is doing both, providing a beacon of hope amongst the gloom.
    Featured:
    Christian Hampsen, founder, Yerrabingin Rooftop Garden
    Matt McKay, permaculturist, Yerrabingin Rooftop Garden
    Richard Fuller, biodiversity expert University of Queensland
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/species-local/11088038

    AUDIO: 8min17sec: 7 May: ABC PM: Australia is a global leader in species extinctions
    By Linda Mottram on PM
    Australia is unfortunately a global leader when it comes to extinction, with 29 mammal species becoming extinct since the arrival of Europeans — that’s a third of the world’s total mammal extinctions in that time.
    Now scientists say a further 1,800 species are at risk of extinction from a range of threats.
    Martine Maron, a Professor in the University of Queensland’s school of Earth and Environmental Sciences, told PM that the biggest threat to species in Australia are habitat destruction, over-extraction and introduce species.
    Featured:
    Martine Maron, Deputy Director Threatened Species Recovery Hub
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/australia-is-a-global-leader-in-species-extinctions/11088040

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      yarpos

      I love the rooftop garden thing, it brings together so many PC memes and focuses them in a very PC centric area. Right where they belong. Like Greta Thunberg I can see the self rightousness dripping from the rooftops.

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    pat

    ABC’s The World Today yesterday:

    AUDIO: 3min5sec: 7 May: ABC The World Today: Biodiversity report: world leaders respond, Australia criticised
    By Isobel Roe on The World Today
    The largest-ever survey of the Earth’s biodiversity has been released by the United Nations, with dire warnings about the planet’s future.
    Over 450 scientists and policy makers from around the world have contributed to the report and their analysis reveals unprecedented declines in biodiversity in the last century, with human activity transforming ecosystems across the planet’s surface and oceans.
    But the report makes clear that it’s not too late for governments to act and world leaders are set to meet next year to decide on a joint response.
    Featured:
    Anne Larigauderie, executive secretary, Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)
    Sir Robert Watson, former chairman, IPBES
    Emmanuel Macron, President of France
    Eduardo Brondizio, professor of anthropology, Indiana University Bloomington and co-chairman, IBPES Global Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
    Dr Michelle Lim, lecturer in biodiversity and environmental law, University of Adelaide

    TRANSCRIPT:
    ISOBEL ROE: The report warns that over the next few decades we could see about 1000 species of plant and animals become extinct. Eventually, if nothing is done, a million species could go.
    Speaking at a press conference in Paris, co-chairman of the report, Eduardo Brondizio, blames human activity.
    EDUARDO BRONDIZIO: Economic growth is a means and not an ends. We need to look for the quality of life of the planet and consider the (inaudible) that we have in front of us.
    There are huge risks for Australia, where the report found nearly 25 per cent of endemic species are under threat…
    MICHELLE LIM: There is this window of opportunity if we act now in revolutionary ways…
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/programs/worldtoday/biodiversity-report-world-leaders-respond-australia-criticised/11086730

    AUDIO: 4min50sec: 7 May: ABC The World Today: We should be “absolutely alarmed” by UN report: Euan Ritchie
    By Eleanor Hall on The World Today
    Dr Euan Ritchie, associate professor in wildlife ecology and conservation at Deakin University, speaks with The World Today’s Eleanor Hall on the United Nations’ biodiversity report.
    He says the report has “been through the wringer” of scrutiny and peer review and should sound a warning to governments that they need to act now.
    Featured:
    Euan Ritchie, associate professor of wildlife ecology, Deakin University
    TRANSCRIPT
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/programs/worldtoday/we-should-be-absolutely-alarmed-by-un-report-euan-ritchie/11087598

    almost every page I’ve posted seemed to have a link at the bottom to:

    16 March: ABC: There’s a growing push to give nature legal rights, but what would that mean?
    ABC Science By environment reporter Nick Kilvert
    Mother Earth, Gaia, Pachamama, Papatuanuku: different cultures have long used human metaphors to define nature…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-03-16/rights-of-nature-science/10899778

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    pat

    AUDIO: 10min46sec: 8 May: ABC Breakfast: Fran Kelly: Consider impact climate change has on your neighbours, says former Kiribati leader
    The federal election campaign has gone global and its courtesy of what’s being described as the Government’s “appalling inaction” over climate change.
    The United Nation’s former climate boss Christiana Figueres has stepped in to publicly endorse four leading independents who have made the issue central to their campaigns.

    And the election is also being watched keenly throughout the Pacific, regarded as the frontline when it comes to global warming.
    Former Kiribati President Anote Tong has been a strident critic of Australia’s efforts to reduce damaging carbon emissions, which he warns will have disastrous consequences for low-lying islands throughout the region.
    According to the United Nations, Kiribati could be the first country to be swallowed by rising seawaters — it could disappear within just 30 years
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/consider-climate-changes-impact-on-your-neighbours/11090246

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      LightningCamel

      Pity about the data which says tht he area of Pacific Islands is stable to increasing. Even their ABC says so.

      Major researcher is Paul Kench and a useful list of his publications is here. Includes a paper documenting the importance of Parrot Fish grazing on coral in the production of sand which maintains the associated atoll. Increasing population and fishing pressure are a bigger threat to these islands than sea level rise.

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    LightningCamel

    I notice that the CSU sea level data has not updated since Feburary 2018. My observation is that this thing updates like clockwork when the level is increasing and magically has a long pause when things are going the other way. Last time they had a really long pause they were reworking their algorithm to introduce a fudge factor to keep the approved narrative going. I wonder what the data are saying for the last year.

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      yarpos

      The BOM had a long pause on updating their web page dealing with frequency and intensity of cyclones, at about the same stage that it was clear the stats showed a decline. Amazing coincidence.

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    pat

    Di Natale will get another outing on theirABC:

    ABC Q&A: Coming Up: Monday, 13 May
    Simon Birmingham, Liberal campaign spokesman
    Tanya Plibersek, Deputy Opposition Leader
    Richard Di Natale, Leader of The Australian Greens

    6 May: ABC Q&A: Bill Shorten on Q&A
    TRANSCRIPT EXCERPTS:
    ATHRINA ATABAK
    My question is, as a student, I’m particularly concerned about climate change. Recent studies show irreversible climate change effects by 2030. How would a Shorten government expand domestic policy, as well as work internationally, to ensure that our future is not threatened by the prospect of the world becoming uninhabitable?

    BILL SHORTEN
    Thanks, Athrina. Well, there’s few issues which are more black and white, or where there’s a stark difference between us and the government, than taking real action on climate change. We’ve committed to reducing our carbon emissions by 45% by 2030. We’ve committed to making sure…to achieve 50% renewable energy as part of our energy mix by 2030. So what we’ve said is, we’ve put in measures to get 0.01% of companies, but our top 250 carbon polluters, to reduce their emissions. The government isn’t doing that. We’ve said that we want to encourage a greater investment in renewable energy – the government’s not doing that. We’ve said that we also want to encourage the rollout of solar battery systems. I mean, 2 million Australian households now have solar rooftop. What we’d like to do is help expand the take-up of solar battery systems so they can store that energy. There’s a lot of differences. All the government ever does is say, “Oh, the cost of taking action on climate change is too much.” Whereas…

    TONY JONES
    In fact…in fact, they ask you what your policies are going to cost, and until now we don’t have an answer. Do you have an answer?

    BILL SHORTEN
    ‘Cause it’s one of… OK. I know people want just to not be controversial, but I want to give you a controversial answer back to that, Tony. That is such a dumb question, to say “What does it cost?” without looking at the cost of inaction. You can’t have a debate about climate change without talking about the cost of inaction. Let me use an analogy for this. It’s not that you are, Tony, it’s the question. You know, the Libs just say, “Look at the cost of it.”…
    These people never admit – the government, the conservatives, the climate deniers, the people really running the Morrison government – they never admit that there is a cost to climate change. There IS a cost – the bushfires, the extreme weather events, the insurance premiums. Climate change is costing. And if anything shows you how broken the last six years – maybe 10 years – of Australian politics is, is that whenever someone wants to have a crack at doing something on climate change, the knuckle-draggers and the cave-dwellers drag them down. I mean, if this government was serious on climate change, Malcolm Bligh Turnbull would still be prime minister of Australia…

    TONY JONES
    OK. Just a quick follow-up – you’ve made some big promises, obviously, on climate change. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said this was “the great moral challenge of our generation,” then he appeared to step away from that challenge. What did you learn from that?…

    BILL SHORTEN
    Well, what I’ve learnt is that we in Labor must commit to real change on climate. We can’t squib the fight. Leadership in this country isn’t always about telling people what they want to hear, but it is about telling the truth to the people about what you’re trying to do. Future generations will look back at this current election, and they will wonder why on earth people were arguing against action on climate change. I don’t want to be a prime minister who squibs the challenge. The Labor Party is going to stand up.
    We know the government’s going to run a scare campaign. We know that they’re going to try and crowd out the issues and say it’s too hard, pull up the drawbridge, the world’s too complex, leave it to someone else to fix up. They’re going to somehow say that if we want to act on climate change, there’ll never be any fossil fuels. There still will be fossil fuels in this country. The point about it is we are… What I learned out of 2009? You can stand for something or fall for everything. And we’re going to stand and fight on climate change. We’re not retreating…

    TONY JONES
    Alright, the next question. You mentioned fossil fuels. The next question is about Adani. It’s from Karolina Franczak.

    KAROLINA FRANCZAK
    Mr Shorten, Australians don’t want equivocation from their leaders. If you truly believe that climate change is an urgent crisis that we need to address, can you, without equivocation, and with the full knowledge that it may affect the Labor vote in Far North Queensland, denounce the proposed Adani coalmine as a polluting relic that does not belong in a modern Australia, which is transitioning to renewables?

    BILL SHORTEN
    No. What I’m going to do is adhere to the science, adhere to the law, I’m going to make sure that we don’t have sovereign risk. There is no doubt in my mind that we’re moving to more renewables. There’s no doubt in my mind that, uh, coal-fired power is getting more expensive, and renewables are getting cheaper. But, at the end of the day, we have to have a framework of laws, we have to have a framework for investment. So, as much as some people would like me to just say, “Just stop it,” I’m not going to say that, because we’ve got to have a system so we don’t incur sovereign risk. So that isn’t the answer you want to hear, but if it’s any consolation to you more generally, I accept that we need to take a lot more action than this government is taking on climate change. I accept that we’re going to see change. But what I can’t say to you is that we’re going to stop using fossil fuels in our energy mix. And I’m certainly not going to say that we’re going to stop exporting, because that’s not a realistic promise. There’s no way I can deliver that. So I’m not going to say that.
    TONY JONES
    But let me ask you this – are you worried that if you say anything definitive about Adani, the CFMEU could hand…
    BILL SHORTEN
    No…
    https://www.abc.net.au/qanda/2019-06-05/11037828

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    pat

    note: wrong, but not wrong. just “overblown”. this still goes on and on nonetheless cos it’s another opportunity to spruik CAGW:

    8 May: ABC: Fact Check: Is the Coalitions’ new spending on climate change worth just four weeks of keeping Christmas Island open?
    Principal researchers: David Campbell, Alexander Gudic-Hay
    The claim
    As climate change emerges as a dominant issue in the 2019 federal election, the Greens have accused the Coalition of spending “bugger all” to fight what they call the nation’s biggest challenge.
    The day after the budget, on April 3, Greens Leader Richard Di Natale told Sky News: “I mean, 189 million bucks over the next four years. They are spending almost as much to keep Christmas Island open in the previous four weeks as they will spend in new money over the next four years on climate change.”
    Is he correct? RMIT ABC Fact Check investigates.

    The verdict
    Senator Di Natale’s claim is overblown.
    The Greens leader has compared several months of detention costs with only part of the Coalition’s new spending on climate change, allocated in the 2019 budget.
    And by focussing on “new money”, Senator Di Natale ignores ongoing spending on climate change…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-08/fact-check-greens-coalition-spending-on-climate-change/11056180

    last but certainly not least! ABC’s latest, posted 43min ago:

    8 May: ABC: Climate change a bigger threat to Australia’s interests than terrorism, Lowy Institute poll suggests
    By national science, technology and environment reporter Michael Slezak
    Climate change is a “critical threat” to Australia’s interests according to almost two-thirds of Australians — ranked as a more serious concern than international terrorism, North Korea’s nuclear program or cyber attacks from other countries.

    This is the first time climate change has led the list of potential threats in the long-running Lowy Institute poll since the question was first included in 2006.

    The poll also confirmed Australians were more concerned about climate change this election than at any time since Kevin Rudd was elected in 2007 — when both major parties proposed an emissions trading scheme…

    This year 61 per cent of voters said climate change was so serious and pressing we should address it now, even if was expensive. That is a 25 percentage point jump since 2012 and the highest number highest since 2006.
    Only 28 per cent of people said climate change should be dealt with gradually, and 10 per cent said we should not act on climate change until we are “sure it’s a problem” — the lowest numbers since 2006 and 2008, respectively…

    The results follow those from the ABC’s Vote Compass, which found the environment more broadly, was the most important issue for voters. A massive 29 per cent of respondents said the environment was the number one issue for them this election — a jump from just 9 per cent last election (LINK).

    On Tuesday, a UN-backed report authored by hundreds of leading scientists warned life on Earth was being put at risk by human activities, and called for stronger action to protect the environment, including action on climate change.
    In an interview with Nine newspapers after the release of the report, Prime Minister Scott Morrison reiterated the Coalition’s opposition to stronger environmental regulations, saying “green tape” could “tie up businesses” and cost jobs…

    Experts say the 2030 target is on the borderline of being compatible with the Paris Agreement, but the policies to meet that target are scalable…

    The Lowy Institute Poll found 59 per cent of people thought Labor would do a better job of managing Australia’s response to climate change than the Coalition…
    ***The full results of the poll will be released in June.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-08/australians-think-climate-change-bigger-threat-than-terrorism/11091276

    unbelievable.

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    Dennis

    Now I get it, the UN IPCC is very worried that as the Ice Man approaches global warming hoax is looking rather foolish and they now face extinction unless they can scare people into a new emissions reduction reason.

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      Sceptical Sam

      CASE.

      Catastrophic Anthropogenic Species Extinction.

      Zoologists eat your hearts out. How many species have you managed to identify since the first zoologist walked the Earth?

      Answer: Zoologists (scientists) have named and cataloged 1.3 million species.

      Who was the first zoologist?

      Adam.

      Adam. Because God chose him to name all the animals:

      “And out of the ground the Lord God formed every beast of the field and every bird of the air, and He brought them to the man to see what he would name each one. And whatever the man called each living creature, that was its name.

      The man gave names to all the livestock, to the birds of the air, and to every beast of the field…. ”

      1.3 million since man first walked the Earth.

      Lazy sods.

      And, 1 million will go extinct by 2030 or whatever?

      You’re joking. Right?

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    mem

    If you haven’t already book marked the Green Agenda site then I suggest you do so. This is the road map for the next social revolution and shows how all these so-called independent institutions are linked together. Read the section on the green web which details linkages and in many cases how the same individuals turn up under several different fronts.This is not fantasy. This is real and marks a major threat to our way of life. http://www.green-agenda.com/

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    pat

    on 13 April, on The Science Show, Shorten was given a 15min-plus segment, from a speech he gave at Australian Academy of Science in November 2018; in other words, ABC interruptions.

    ***NOTE THE BOM Q & A:

    AUDIO: 10min40sec: 8 May: ABC The Science Show: Coalition promises for science
    With a federal election just two weeks away, Minister for Science, Karen Andrews outlines the government’s achievements and promises in science and research.
    TRANSCRIPT EXCERPTS:
    WILLIAMS: We heard from Bill Shorten a couple of weeks ago, and so here is our Federal Minister for Science and Technology, Karen Andrews…

    WILLIAMS: Well, let me just go to the journal Nature. I don’t know whether you saw it but a couple of weeks ago there was a reaction to the budget, and the headline was ‘Australian budget fails to impress’, and then ‘science shunned in this year’s spending proposal’. Let me just take you to the first paragraph. It said: ‘Australians are just weeks away from a national election and the government’s latest budget proposal prioritises tax cuts, roads and small businesses ahead of spending on science. Projects in nuclear medicine, environmental protection and gender equality in science received modest investments, but there was no new money for research grants, and universities will be worse off under the proposal.’ What do you say to that?…

    WILLIAMS: But let me ask you a question about what you said in an interview we broadcast earlier this year, and that is a very interesting thing about how we should be led by the evidence when it comes to policy and things like climate, rather than ideology. Do you find it a bit of a struggle to get many of your colleagues to listen to that point?…

    WILLIAMS: Between you and me, however, is it sometimes a bit of a struggle in the Cabinet room to get science and technology the attention it deserves?…

    ***WILLIAMS: One question which is not directly to do with the election but prompted by a leading person in science in Australia who asks about in fact the Bureau of Meteorology and how there have been attacks on them from certain quarters about so-called falsifying or fiddling with the figures to make it suggest that climate is more of a problem than it should be. Do you think to some extent you ought to protect the Bureau of Meteorology and its scientists from that kind of rather loose accusation?

    ANDREWS: Well, what I say to people is when you give me the answer, I want it to be based on scientific evidence because I want to be able to be in a position to defend what you’re telling me, and I feel very strongly about that. So when I ask people to give me some information, I expect it to have the proper scientific rigour attached to it because I want to be able to defend that work, I want to be able to stand up there for all of our scientists, I want to be able to say this is how that recommendation has been derived. And of course I don’t have direct responsibility for scientists in the Department of the Environment or Bureau of Meteorology as well, but yes, I certainly want to be in a position where I can defend Australian scientists…
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/coalition-promises-for-science/11077828

    8 May: ABC Ockham’s Razor: The truth about Australia’s megafaunal extinctions
    Clearly our megafauna have disappeared – and there are two main suspects behind their extinction: climate change, or humans.
    But which one did it?
    This talk was recorded at an Ockham’s Razor Live event as part of the World Science Festival Brisbane 2019.
    Guest: Dr Gilbert Price
    Snr Lecturer in Palaeontology, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland
    Presenter: Robyn Williams
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/ockhamsrazor/the-truth-about-our-megafaunal-extinctions/11091652

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    • #
      Bill in Oz

      Given up on that silly arrogant bugger
      Robyn Williams
      he loves the sound of his own voice too much

      I used to read the transcripts occasionally
      But they are no longer done
      Possibly because then we can skip
      All the sermons from Mt Williams. Williams

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      pat

      the Nature article referenced by Robyn Williams:

      3 Apr: Nature: Australian budget fails to impress scientists
      Modest investments in nuclear medicine and environment research are part of a lacklustre budget for science.
      by Smriti Mallapaty
      “It is not an inspirational budget for a nation that needs to transition from a bulk resources exporter to an innovation economy,” says Sydney-based marine ecologist Emma Johnston, president of Science & Technology Australia, an umbrella organization of societies that represent a total of 70,000 researchers…
      “The government has missed an important opportunity to reverse economy-damaging cuts to university funding, and secure economic growth,” says environmental chemist Dianne Jolley of the University of Technology Sydney.

      The latest budget does not include new money for the two major research funding agencies — the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council — beyond keeping pace with inflation over the next 4 years. Neither does it provide a funding boost beyond inflation for the national research agency, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation…

      “An investment in coastal science is long overdue,” says marine scientist Ruth Reef, who heads the Coastal Research Group at Monash. Coastal habitats are increasingly affected by intensive agriculture, urbanization, sea-level rise and storms, says Reef…
      https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01071-3

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    pat

    first 14min32sec is all Arctic, CAGW etc:

    AUDIO: 26min29sec: 8 May: ABC Radio National: from BBC: The World Business Report: US blocks climate change declaration at Arctic Council
    The US refused to sign any declaration mentioning climate change at the Arctic Council. We ask what next for the group of nations bordering the Arctic Circle. Peter Winsor is director of the WWF Arctic Programme, and we also hear from Arild Moe, a research professor at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute…
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172wx8lt31wwjz

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    Bill in Oz

    What’s Up With That (WUWT ) is a great resource.
    But the throughput of posts is huge
    So it’s easy to miss a post which is useful & important
    Here is one I almost missed :
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/07/willis-favorite-airport/
    I real interesting discussion of Urban Heat Island effects
    And airport heat island effects.
    I think that our dopey BOM really should read this as well
    But there’s bugger all chance of anyone there doing that !

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    Hanrahan

    Chernobyl has a new sarcophagus.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7aMcKinrWY

    I was looking for something about the local environment. It is unclear whether the fauna is devolving or thriving. Anyone got a link?

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Hanrahan:

      Thriving. The new industry is Eco-Tours of the Closed Zone around Chernobyl. Day tours only. “Wild animals that had not been seen in this area for decades were filmed. For example, brown bears, lynxes, wolves. The population of rare animals such as the white-tailed eagles, cranes, owls, otters, and bison has increased. The populations of Przewalski’s horses, deer, and wild pigs have significantly grown; the ponds are filled with fish”.

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    Another Ian

    “Delingpole: Six Reasons Why You Should Ignore the UN’s Species Extinction Report”

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/05/07/un-species-extinction-report-is-enviro-loon-hysteria/

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    • #
      Graeme#4

      I see from the Peter Ridd GoFundMe site that he is planning to write a book soon on the GBR.

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    • #
      Hanrahan

      Just because Peter Ridd says the GBR is thriving doesn’t mean it is, it’s struggling. There is more than AGW at play. Mainly, but not only, the COT.

      I say this so you don’t become complacent about it. We can’t afford that.

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    yarpos

    For reasons unknown last night we were watching a History Channel show on the Lady Jane Grey period of UK history (1550-ish).

    The presenters used a technique of holding pictures from the era (sketches and artwork) while talking about the same building in the background over their shoulder.

    When they did shots across the Thames this way , talking about the history and coming and goings across the water, it was interesting to note that the Thames seems to be sitting in the same place relative to the building as it was in the sketches and not half way up the windows.

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    toorightmate

    Bill Shorten got some treatment from Sydney’s Daily Telegraph which was pretty tame compared with tripe which GetUp dishes put to conservative politicians. Everyone said “Shock and Horror. Poor Bill”.
    Bill did not recall that he was supposed to be joint executor of his father’s will.
    Bill doesn’t know anything about the severe beating given to Bob Kernohan (because Bob was about to spill the beans on Gillard.
    Bill is very good with women, especially the new chicks in his office.
    Bill dumped wife No.1 for a rich woman’s daughter.
    Bill is best friends with the Pratts. Strange thing that Visy seems totally devoid of any industrial unrest.
    Bill still thinks the lady in the pie shop, who he verbally abused, was wrong to attempt to sell such an important person with a cold pie.
    Bill denies any knowledge of the rape of Kathy. Vic police consider her unsuitable as witness (she is a darned sight more suitable than the witnesses who put Pell away).
    This horrible person will most likely be PM in 10 days time???

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      yarpos

      Sadly being nice or just being a decent human being is no real qualification for leadership positions. This is why when you see it happen, it seems so unusual.

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      Kinky Keith

      Illuminating.

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    Annie

    Belated Easter Eggs coming Jo. Sorry about the delay…we were both ill for a while.

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