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Venezuela’s melt down: Blackout day six and the grid struggles to reboot

Venezuela has 31 million people and has had almost no electricity for six days. There are estimates on Twitter (#sinluz) suggesting that about half is back up as I write, but the stories of chaos, death and disaster are surely just starting to come out as communication lines open.  The water coming out of taps is black, possibly contaminated with oil (are those shots fake?)the Pepsi plant was stripped bare, see the video. People are desperate:  Shop owners are apparently shooting looters. At least one tweeter claims people are eating zoo animals. One baker took his own life after his shop was overrun and everything was stolen.  It may not be over yet either — the grid  recovered almost as far a few days ago, then collapsed again. Indeed, today explosions have been reported at an electrical substation at La Tiama, as well as other substations. What a debacle, a disaster. Babies in hospitals are being ventilated by hand. Many life support systems are off.

Netblocks tracks connectivity in Venezuala, which seems to be a reasonable proxy for power, and clearly electricity is being rebuilt partially, then collapsing again.

On the BBC one journalist describes the situation as like living the apocalypse. “They never thought it would come to this”. And he is not even referring to the armed pro Maduro regime gangs that are allegedly arriving on motorbikes and firing on protestors. See @MarcoRubio In the video the crowd is screaming and running for their lives.

Venezuela shows how fragile (and marvellous) a working grid is

History books will be written about this crisis. Matias Delacroix points out in Wired, that it’s very difficult to restart a decentralized grid which has been badly managed and poorly maintained. No one knows exactly what went wrong to bring it down, but fingers are pointing at the huge Guri Hydro plant, which provides a whopping 80% of the electricity.

Normally a blackstart begins with a small diesel unit to kick over a bigger turbine. Then the whole grid is gradually rebuilt bit by bit by “bootstrapping”. At all times the supply has to match the demand, so before an engineer throws the switch someone has to have already done the numbers to make sure things will stay balanced. As each new generator-load segment is added it must also match the frequency and phase set up by the original first generator.  It would be dangerous to set up a bunch of little separate grids and then try to meld them together. Getting the frequency or phase wrong can cause explosions. Hence the grid must be built from one point out, and carefully. Wind or solar generators can’t be used in a black start, but a large Hydro plant should be able to do that, assuming people can open the water gates, but restarting a badly managed grid means there are many fragile failure points that don’t reboot properly. After days of darkness it must also be difficult to estimate how much load will be waiting to take new power.

 WHY IT’S SO HARD TO RESTART VENEZUELA’S POWER GRID

Matias Delacroix, Wired

While distributed systems don’t have a single point of generation failure, they can be more difficult to black start if they do go down, since more generation sites need to be bootstrapped and there are more loads to balance.

Regardless of the setup, the crucial component of all black starts is understanding what caused the outage, having the ability to fix it, and working with a system that can handle the power surges and fluctuations involved in bringing power back online. Without all of these elements in place, says Tim Yardley, a senior researcher at the University of Illinois focused on industrial control crisis simulations, black starts can be prohibitively difficult to execute.

“Reenergizing a grid in some ways is more of a shock to the system than it operating in its norm,” Yardley says. “If infrastructure is aging, and there’s a lack of maintenance and repairs, as you try to turn it back on and try to balance the loads you may have stuff that’s not going to come back up, infrastructure that’s been physically damaged or that was in such a bad state of repair that reenergizing it causes other problems.”

I asked a network engineer once what happens to the energy if, say a large turbine, was connected to a grid at the wrong frequency. Energy can’t just disappear, and if the phase or the frequency flatlined, and and opposing waves cancelled each other out, where would all the joules go?  He replied that it could be catastrophic — those kind of events shear through the steel turbine shaft (and these turbines can weigh up to 600 tons). When there are megawatts of energy at stake, mistakes are violent.

Crews attempting to deal with black-starting a frail and brittle grid also face major safety considerations, like explosions. “You have a maintenance issue and a manpower issue, because it’s extremely dangerous to reenergize a system if you have gear that hasn’t been maintained well,” Yardley notes.

Venezuela has faced years of power instability since about 2009, including two major blackouts in 2013 and a power and water crisis in 2016. At times the blackouts were caused in part by weather conditions like El Niño, but overall they have established a pattern of poor planning, mismanagement, and lack of investment on the part of the government.

Yay. Socialism.

UPDATE: China is offering to help get the grid running.

UPDATE: This may take months

Brilliant comment from Lance #5 explaining why this is a nightmare for grid managers and may take 3 – 6 months to sort out. Or longer if they blow too many substation transformers which are custom made.

Lance     March 14, 2019 at 4:45 am · Reply

Performing a “black start” is no simple matter.

The primary problem is that everything that was connected to the grid when it crashed is still connected. So essentially, the Load is a “Dead Short” from the perspective of Generation.

Every inductive load (induction motors) takes 6 times the normal running current to start each and every one. In terms of real and imaginary (complex) power components, the Load appears to be almost purely inductive with a Real component vector of nearly zero.

Essentially, Generation must provide 6 times the power it was providing when the grid failed and that reserve simply doesn’t exist. So energizing a substation is an explosive event.

The safest / only way to restart the grid is to isolate all of the loads except residential loads and bring up the lower voltage substations (10 kV) gradually in a controlled fashion. The residential load has resistive components ( water heaters, clothes dryers, cooking ovens, etc ) that help reduce the inductive component and provide a unity power factor component to the apparent load.

Only after the lower voltage grid is stabilized can the higher voltage transmission lines and substations (110 kV to 750 + kV)be re-energized. Even so, it is a precarious dance of balancing generated power with apparent power.

When the generator is connected to the load, it “sees” a reflected wave coming back to the generator that trips the overload safeties and causes the turbine/alternator to disconnect if the apparent power exceeds safe limits. If those safeties aren’t functional, the risk is an exploding substation, alternator, sheared turbine shaft, etc.

This is a nightmare scenario. No sane person ever wants to “smoke test” a power grid by trying a black start. The ramifications are frightening.

This is specifically why keeping a stable grid operational is a lot smarter than trying to roll the dice with intermittent generation and sudden changes in loads.

Greens ought to give the situation in Venezuela a very serious consideration before destabilizing the existing grid in any location on earth.

My guess is it will take 3 to 6 months to restart the grid in Venezuela, even if things go swimmingly. If a few substations and alternators are blown out, it could take 2 years. Longer if some turbines are damaged.

Substation transformers are custom made to order. They do not exist “in stock on hand” at the power levels needed on a national grid scale. Unit substations might be available in smaller sizes, say 50 to 100 MW. But the high voltage and higher power switchgear and transformers can be a 1 to 2 year lead time item even if you have the cash to pay for them.

This is a teachable moment. Smart people will pause and reflect upon what is happening, lest it happen elsewhere. This is not a game sane people want to play. Societies melt down in a matter of days to weeks without electric power, water, food, transportation, communication, etc.

We’ve yet to see how bad this is going to get. It will get a LOT worse before it gets better.

———————————

UPDATE: This link to Monash IP Observatory is monitoring live net connections in each district.  Many appear to be back up in the normal range of activity. Urdeneta, Sucre is not. Bolivar appears to show blackouts two weeks ago in the lead up.  Valencia has some wild spike of activity.

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Venezuela's melt down: Blackout day six and the grid struggles to reboot, 9.8 out of 10 based on 79 ratings

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281 comments to Venezuela’s melt down: Blackout day six and the grid struggles to reboot

  • #
    Gordon

    Just need some wind turbines and solar panels…. that will fix everything.

    220

    • #

      No, just less Socialism and Green ideology.

      180

      • #
        PeterS

        Indeed but apparently that’s not the case here in Australia. We are fast becoming a socialist state. Time will tell if enough Australians wake up and decide to pull their finger out and vote accordingly.

        261

        • #

          Knowing how Australian politicians, academics and other ‘experts’ seem to work, we’re usually 10 years behind the rest of the world that takes up some fruitless endeavour.

          And when the rest of the world abandons that fruitless endeavour, we keep going thinking that we can do better and make it work. It’s not so much Socialism, but stupidity and, for some, self-serving financial gain.

          Just think of all the incredible historical waste, not just renewables, but any recent major acquisition or project (NBN, submarines, etc).

          180

          • #
            PeterS

            Yes, that’s what I said below in post #8.1.2.1
            Still stupid and socialism go hand in hand.

            110

            • #
              AndyG55

              Quite simply, the AGW farce, and the socialist AGENDA that it supports, will cause severe regression of Australian living standards.

              131

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              UPDATE: China is offering to help get the grid running.

              Thanks for the update Jo.

              The Chinese can’t let their Communist comrades go under.

              Are we in the middle of a covert cyber war?

              USA bans Huawei. Did China hack Boeing 737 Max 8 and 9 in response. Maduro alleges USA hacked Venezuala’s power management system. China offers support to Venezuala.

              The only element missing is the 21st Century’s Gavilro Princep.

              50

    • #
      Mark D.

      Humor always helps right Gordon?
      What is needed is a few percent over 50 that are adults. Adults know what is needed. Teenagers (metaphorically) and other non-adults will be on the losing team. Fortunately and sad, Venezuela may be the example we can use world-wide. We THINK we are a civilized world but alas we are always just moments away from chaos.

      I pray for the good people of Venezuela. May they overcome Evil and persevere.

      100

    • #
      Hivemind

      Venezuela is basically South Australia in a few years.

      30

      • #
        Hivemind

        BTW, Adelaide used to be called the “City of Churches”. We are now calling Adelaide the “City of Candles”, in honour of their power system.

        20

  • #
    Latus Dextro

    On the BBC one journalist describes the situation as like living the apocalypse. “They never thought it would come to this”.

    Ideologues never ‘think’. Their chaos is born of omission and commission.

    “Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the gospel of envy and the ceed of ignorance. Its sole virtue is equality of misery.” Winston Churchill.

    Whether rank socialism, or watermelon climatism, the loss of security, prosperity and freedom, has a reliably murderous end, anywhere.

    Time to expunge socialism from civilised discourse and from society.
    Chanting the same murderously wrong Leftist political dogma since 1848 defines insanity, an insanity that lies not only with the exponents, but the adherents and the rest who do nothing.

    Meanwhile, just across the border in Brazil, things couldn’t be more reassuringly different:
    Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro Slams Environmentalism as ‘Marxist Ideology’
    … and Brazil defends its border.

    340

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      how many USA backed coups will be needed to prove that socialism can not work?

      328

      • #
      • #
        AndyG55

        Surly you means, how many Soros backed leftists to prove socialism doesn’t work?

        231

      • #
        Ken Stewart

        So it’s just a US capitalist-imperialist plot? Still living in the seventies?

        131

      • #
        AndyG55

        When are you moving to Venezuela, pfitz, to be with your like-minded..

        .. instead of backing an AGENDA (totalitarian socialism) and a LIE (human forced climate change), that threatens to turn Australia into a second Venezuela.

        211

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        It waz an
        Itzy bitzy
        Teeny weeny
        Yellow polka dot

        ,,,,,,,
        But itz over. XXXX

        40

      • #
        Lance

        Please, Peter, do tell us all how many successful examples of applied socialism have occurred in the last 150 years.

        There were no US Backed Coups against socialism during the time of Marx, Bolsheviks, Trotsky, Lenin, Mao, Pol Pot, Castro, or any other time until AFTER WWII when Stalin’s USSR threatened the extinction of the Western World.

        USSR collapsed in 1991 under the weight of their own failures, cronyism, and betrayal of the people they claimed to represent, standing on a mountain of some 100 million dead bodies.

        Get your history straight.

        Socialism has never worked. Ever. Anywhere. Anytime.

        300

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          here is a handy list

          4.1 1940s
          4.1.1 1944-6: France
          4.1.2 1945-49: Germany
          4.1.3 1945–1953: South Korea
          4.1.4 1946–1949: China
          4.1.5 1946–1949: Greece
          4.1.6 1946– 1954: Philippines
          4.1.7 1952: Egypt
          4.1.8 1947–1970s: Italy
          4.1.9 1949: Syria
          4.2 1950s
          4.2.1 1953: Iran
          4.2.2 1954: Guatemala
          4.2.3 1955–1960: Laos
          4.2.4 Failed coup plots against Syria
          4.2.5 1957–1959: Indonesia
          4.2.6 1958: Lebanon
          4.2.7 1959: Iraq
          4.3 1960s
          4.3.1 1960: Democratic Republic of Congo
          4.3.2 1960: Laos
          4.3.3 1961: Dominican Republic
          4.3.4 1961: Bay of Pigs
          4.3.5 1960s: Cuba
          4.3.6 1961–1964: Brazil
          4.3.7 1963: Iraq
          4.3.8 1963: Vietnam
          4.3.9 1965–66: Dominican Republic
          4.3.10 1965–1967: Indonesia
          4.3.11 1967: Greece
          4.4 1970s
          4.4.1 1971: Bolivia
          4.4.2 1972–1975: Iraq
          4.4.3 1973: Chile
          4.4.4 1979–1989: Afghanistan
          4.5 1980s
          4.5.1 1980-1989: Poland
          4.5.2 1980–1992: El Salvador
          4.5.3 1982–1989: Nicaragua
          4.5.4 1983: Grenada
          4.5.5 1989: Panama
          5 Post-Cold War
          5.1 1990s
          5.1.1 1991: Kuwait
          5.1.2 1991: Haiti
          5.1.3 1991–2003: Iraq
          5.1.4 1994–2000: Iraq
          5.1.5 1997: Indonesia
          5.2 2000s
          5.2.1 2000: Yugoslavia
          5.2.2 2003: Iraq
          5.2.3 2005: Iran
          5.2.4 2006–07: Palestinian territories
          5.2.5 Post–2005: Syria
          5.3 2010s
          5.3.1 2011: Libya
          5.3.2 2013: Egyptian coup d’état
          5.3.3 2015–present: Yemen

          415

          • #
            MudCrab

            Handy list of what exactly?

            You have cut/pasted a list of dates and names in response to several rather different questions.

            This isn’t the seventies, Peter. We are not all wearing cords and tuning into the same cosmic broadcast of The Who. Give us some context so we can discuss your argument.

            80

          • #
            Lance

            You didn’t answer the question.

            “How many SUCCESSFUL examples of Socialism can you provide in the last 150 years”.

            Fitz: 0

            Your “interpretation” of U.S. Sponsored coups is quite imaginative. I’m quite sure your ideological bias isn’t showing. Perhaps you think that ISIS is a “freedom Fighter” organization, eh?

            It is quite fun to engage an idiot in intellectual discussions. They make easy targets.

            Cheers.

            100

          • #
            Ukrainian

            @Peter

            your list is hilarious. You mean that the Polish in 1989 where “wrongly helped to go out of socialism hell”? What are you even thinking? Nothing little boy. The UDSSR was a horrible 90 year old Third Reich without end. 1000 labor camps, Gestapo like police state evereywhere. Thank GOD it collapsed.

            US interventions are not Imperialistic one, because USA does not need to do this. They did not need to do it in the 60ies or 70ies. Russia, China and other dictatorships with a different culture of terror and suppression of freedom – they do imperialistic attacks.

            In your logic, the world war II was an “imperialistic intervention for regime change” in Germany and Japan. This is not logic, this is not real thinking.

            You should not be in the internet but cleaning toilets. It is way over your mind. Stop it.

            Ukrainan

            20

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          and pre WWII
          2.1 1890s
          2.1.1 1893: Kingdom of Hawaii
          2.1.2 1898: Cuba and Puerto Rico
          2.1.3 1899: Philippines
          2.1.4 1898–1901: China
          2.2 1900s
          2.2.1 1903: Panama
          2.2.2 1900s–1920s: Honduras
          2.3 1910s
          2.3.1 1912–1933: Nicaragua
          2.3.2 1914: Mexico
          2.3.3 1915–1934: Haiti
          2.3.4 1916–1924: Dominican Republic

          34

          • #
            Lance

            Hey, Fitz.

            If you believe the horsecrap you are selling, why don’t you move to Venezuela or Cuba?

            I’ll pay for your one way ticket with my own money.

            I dare you. Do it. Please. All I need is your cancelled passport and I promise to pay your fare.

            Cheers to the Brave One.

            171

      • #
        Mark D.

        Fitzy, what an id10T, you are so oblivious.
        See above, you obviously are in the non-adult category. When you mature, you’ll realize that the US is only a small source of coups. In the meantime explain your academic world view to the starving in Venezuela and then step into the successes of socialism.

        132

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          see above list, and according to the UN no one is starving

          38

          • #
            crakar24

            Peter,

            Do you think Islamic countries use socialism as their econimic model?………….oh lord you are a fool.

            71

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            I was educating my 13 yo daughter yesterday – I was informing her of Mao and Stalin ( who she’d never heard of ) but I explained they were communists who killed huge numbers of their own countrymen and women purely becasue they disgreed with them, and more people have died under socialism than in WW2.

            “Wow” she said.

            Then she asked if Kim Jong-il was a communist…

            yes I said. He executes peopel who disagree withhim too. We dont do that ( unelss youre the C*A ) in a democracy.

            “Yuck” she said.

            Strike one for Socialism……

            90

            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              did you mention those killed in the “freedom wars” like Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen. Or those killed in colonial wars like India (include the famines as well). Aor the millions killed after World War one, as new the democracies in Europe conducted ethnic cleansing.

              49

              • #
                Lance

                Ethnic Cleansing. You mean like the Armenian Genocide? Or the 200 Million victims of Islam?

                You crack me up, Fitz. Always something to say, but never any meaning to one bit of it.

                80

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                Nope. The 200+ million killed by Socialists who cant handle criticism….

                They were snowflakes with access to bad stuff.

                80

              • #
                Ukrainian

                Vietnam is now a communist dictatorship with million slaves. Million of “Boat People” have fled the cruel and horrible Vietnam Communists. The Vietnam War against the communist was right. Sadly the US lost.

                So stop lying.

                20

          • #
            beowulf

            “According to the UN”!!! You crack me up Fitzy. What a comedian. Nothing the UN says or does could be questionable could it?

            Like The Commission on the Status of Women (CSW) which is the principal global intergovernmental body exclusively dedicated to the promotion of gender equality and the empowerment of women.

            And who does the UN appoint to the CSW but that well known bastion of women’s lib — Iran. The appointment took place the day after Iran sentenced women’s rights lawyer Nasrin Sotudeh to 38 years prison and 148 lashes for daring to promote the rights of women.

            But wait, it gets better (or worse). Saudi Arabia has also been appointed to the CSW for 4 years, in addition to chairing the UN Human Rights Commission. If it wasn’t such an outrage it would be a joke too. You remember Saudi Arabia — where women have their lives micro-controlled from cradle to grave by male relatives; where girls that get pack-raped are whipped then stoned to death for adultery; where a 15 year old boy was judicially beheaded for criticising the royal family etc etc etc.

            I can see that truth, women’s rights and human rights are safe in the hands of the UN . . . NOT! The UN says whatever it is paid to say Fitzy. Foetid with corruption from top to bottom.

            https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2019/03/un-commission-on-status-of-women-appoints-iran-to-judge-complaints-about-womens-rights.html
            https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/anger-after-saudi-arabia-chosen-to-head-key-un-human-rights-panel-10509716.html
            https://www.unwatch.org/no-joke-u-n-elects-saudi-arabia-womens-rights-commission/

            110

            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              So you talk about women to answer a point about starvation? How Droll

              310

              • #
                AndyG55

                That went totally over your head, didn’t it little pfutz

                As usual your comprehension level is that of a 4 year old

                I can never figure out if it actually what you are, or you are just pretending to be dumbest twerp on the planet.

                62

          • #
            AndyG55

            So Pfutz, Which of those countries would YOU prefer to live in.

            … and why haven’t you moved there to be with your kindred idea-logs.

            91

          • #
            Lance

            Fitz, According to the UN, you have no idea what you are talking about.

            The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that about 815 million people of the 7.6 billion people in the world, or 10.7%, were suffering from chronic undernourishment in 2016. Almost all the hungry people live in lower-middle-income countries. There are 11 million people undernourished in developed countries (FAO 2015; for individual country estimates, see Annex 1. For other valuable sources, especially if interested in particular countries or regions, see IFPRI 2016 and Rosen et. al. 2016).

            Source: FAO, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, 2017 p. 7

            80

    • #
      Alfred (Cairns)

      The Americans did it. Obvious. Every country they meddle in ends up a shambles. Guaranteed.

      In a few months, they will be boasting about how clever they were. It is all so very obvious. They did the same thing with the Iranians not so very long ago – with their uranium enrichers.

      It is all so very obvious. Please do not be suckered by the lying media.

      If Australia were to dare get out of line, they would do the same thing here. Remember prime minister Harold Holt who was “eaten by a shark”? That is what happens to any prime minister who dare try to have an independent foreign policy. Lesson learnt.

      Here is a funny piece of nonsense by the Daily Telegraph

      Mystery of missing PM finally solved

      If you believe this nonsense, you will believe anything.

      54

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Good luck with that argument with this crowd. You must understand that unless it is in The Australian, or on WUWT, it will be ignored.

        28

        • #
          Curious George

          Alfred, Peter, lucky you. Obviously you never lived in a socialist country. Unfortunately, I did. Lost years of my life.

          20

          • #
            Alfred (Cairns)

            Dear Curious George,

            I was born in Cairo, Egypt. Their Socialist government grabbed our family’s mining and paint business. Their Social Security HQ is my grandfather’s house – which they are squatting on. I was the first child born in that house in 1950.

            Please don’t offer me lessons in Socialism. Thank you.

            While I have nothing in common with Maduro, he is what the people of Venezuela have chosen. Whether you or I like it or not is irrelevant.

            As predicted, the Americans are already boasting of having sabotaged the Venezuelan electric grid.

            Rubio’s Gloating Betrays US Sabotage in Venezuela Power Blitz

            10

            • #
              AndyG55

              roflmao,

              Hardly what ANYONE would call a reliable source.

              Inventions of FAKE news, just make it up as needed to get a headline.

              Alfred meets pfutz in the GULLIBLE stakes !!

              00

        • #
          yarpos

          Thats because its not an argument, its just assertion and fantasy

          10

          • #
            Alfred (Cairns)

            No Western governments don’t kill inconvenient people. And false flags never happen </sarc>

            Well, here is a BBC documentary from 1992 – when the BBC had a tiny bit of independence and self-respect:

            “Operation Gladio – Full 1992 documentary BBC”

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGHXjO8wHsA

            What makes you think that is not going on right now in NZ? And a few months ago at the North Korean embassy in Madrid?

            In case you have not noticed, this whole Global Warming thing is a False Flag.

            10

      • #
        AndyG55

        Tin hat time from Alfie and poc.

        Do you GULLIBLE FOOLS really “believe” it was anything but a natural death, by either drowning or shark???

        REALLY ? !!!

        Conspiracy theories, hey ;-)

        And poc cannot understand anything that isn’t from the deep socialist manifesto of LIES and DECEIT.

        It all he has to work with.

        30

      • #
        beowulf

        Yes I see your point Alfred, death by drowning in a wild sea is so much less likely than death by a secret underwater CIA hit squad or kidnap by aliens.

        This is Harold “all the way with LBJ” Holt we are talking about. A USA sycophant. The sea was that rough it is no wonder his body was never recovered. Holt was a fool who died a fool’s death. No Chinese subs or CIA frogmen or alien spaceships required.

        50

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        Have been to that beach.

        He was obviously a risk taker and paid the price.

        KK

        30

  • #
    Betapug

    Hmm…Can you control water flow to the turbines at a large hydro plant by hand wheels if there is no electrically powered motors? Long extension cord across the border?

    110

    • #
      ivan

      I should think they would have a reasonably large diesel generator for emergency use when the turbines have to be shut down for some reason.

      100

      • #
        Another Ian

        Maybe that has been wrecked keeping the lights on in the presidential palace?

        51

        • #
          Alfred (Cairns)

          You don’t vote in Venezuela so you don’t get to choose their president. That is how democracy is supposed to work. Your opinion on the personality of their elected president is irrelevant. Just as irrelevant as the opinion of a Venezuelan of our choice of politicians.

          Descending to ad hominem attacks against the president of another country just proves that the lies of the Austalian Mainstream Media work as well in foreign policy as they do in the fake Global Warming narrative.

          42

      • #
        Alfred (Cairns)

        The dam supplies 80% of the country’s electricity. Ever heard of such a diesel backup? :)

        11

    • #
      yarpos

      Would have thought gravity might have a role to play

      00

  • #
    Dennis

    Meanwhile in Australia politicians know better than engineers …………

    290

    • #
      Another Ian

      Dennis

      Around that area.

      I’m reading Ian Plimer’s “Not for Greens”

      IMO you could describe it as “the book that contains everything that the supporter of green electricity needs to know”

      200

    • #
      PeterS

      Meanwhile voters keep voting for those politicians that supposedly know better than engineers.

      160

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Meanwhile the Australain Bolshevik Collective is at it again…..

        Lenin and Mao also used children as political weapons.

        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-14/australian-school-students-why-theyll-strike-for-climate-change/10892920

        “It’s not the first time they’ve done it — in November, students filled arcades and city squares, protesting against what they see as the destruction of their future.

        This time at least 50 rallies are planned across the country, part of a global movement inspired by Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg.

        Tully Bowtell-Young, from Townsville, says the extreme weather that has lashed the city recently is a stark example of the effects of climate change.

        “The flood we just had wasn’t just a normal flood, it was a one-in-100-year event. It was a horrendous flood,” she says.

        Audio: The climate kids are coming for you (The Roundtable)
        ……………

        “The flood hit after an extended period of drought, and Tully says it’s helped to shape conversation in city that is “quite divided on the issue of climate change”.

        “Both the flooding rains and the droughts have gotten worse through the effects of climate change, and it’s easier to talk to people about climate change when they have experienced it,” she says.

        “But Tully has been on the trail of climate activism for some time.

        “One of things that got me passionate about the issue of climate change was article I wrote for a school English assignment,” she says.

        “So I got passionate about this issue through learning.”

        Learning?

        From whom?

        110

        • #
          GD

          “The flood we just had wasn’t just a normal flood, it was a one-in-100-year event. It was a horrendous flood,” she says.

          So, what caused the flood(s) a hundred years ago?

          If the teachers actually taught these students instead of just indoctrinating them, maybe the students would ask questions like this.

          20

      • #
        yarpos

        While the Engineers dont speak up and tug the forelock to politicians and alarmists how would the public know there is even an issue till it smacks them in the face?

        Young Engineers need to make a living. As always , follow the money.

        30

    • #
      ColA

      Dennis,
      Sadly many of the younger engineers I have contact with appear to have lost interest/ability to question the CAGWatologists. They don’t look at the bigger picture (Socialism, UN Agenda 21 etc.) or don’t have the information because MSM will not discuss the same.

      Latus’s Winston quote above is spot on (Hmm … except I think it is spelt creed not ceed?)

      The conservatives leaders (yes I know – quite possibly an oxymoron!) in Australia must grow some, step up to the podium and challenge the CO2 meme LOUD AND CLEAR or THEY will doom Australia to a leftard green hell! I have visions of the old black and white movie of the heads down, dejected populous moving in lockstep whipped by the overlords!!

      120

      • #
        Destroyer D69

        The “conservative” and “minor” ie. single self interest parties must agree on a common set of policies and be adamant that these are non negotionable even if it means the collapse of the Government and a double dissolution.Bring in Right of Recall.

        60

  • #
    Lance

    Performing a “black start” is no simple matter.

    The primary problem is that everything that was connected to the grid when it crashed is still connected. So essentially, the Load is a “Dead Short” from the perspective of Generation.

    Every inductive load (induction motors) takes 6 times the normal running current to start each and every one. In terms of real and imaginary (complex) power components, the Load appears to be almost purely inductive with a Real component vector of nearly zero.

    Essentially, Generation must provide 6 times the power it was providing when the grid failed and that reserve simply doesn’t exist. So energizing a substation is an explosive event.

    The safest / only way to restart the grid is to isolate all of the loads except residential loads and bring up the lower voltage substations (10 kV) gradually in a controlled fashion. The residential load has resistive components ( water heaters, clothes dryers, cooking ovens, etc ) that help reduce the inductive component and provide a unity power factor component to the apparent load.

    Only after the lower voltage grid is stabilized can the higher voltage transmission lines and substations (110 kV to 750 + kV)be re-energized. Even so, it is a precarious dance of balancing generated power with apparent power.

    When the generator is connected to the load, it “sees” a reflected wave coming back to the generator that trips the overload safeties and causes the turbine/alternator to disconnect if the apparent power exceeds safe limits. If those safeties aren’t functional, the risk is an exploding substation, alternator, sheared turbine shaft, etc.

    This is a nightmare scenario. No sane person ever wants to “smoke test” a power grid by trying a black start. The ramifications are frightening.

    This is specifically why keeping a stable grid operational is a lot smarter than trying to roll the dice with intermittent generation and sudden changes in loads.

    Greens ought to give the situation in Venezuela a very serious consideration before destabilizing the existing grid in any location on earth.

    My guess is it will take 3 to 6 months to restart the grid in Venezuela, even if things go swimmingly. If a few substations and alternators are blown out, it could take 2 years. Longer if some turbines are damaged.

    Substation transformers are custom made to order. They do not exist “in stock on hand” at the power levels needed on a national grid scale. Unit substations might be available in smaller sizes, say 50 to 100 MW. But the high voltage and higher power switchgear and transformers can be a 1 to 2 year lead time item even if you have the cash to pay for them.

    This is a teachable moment. Smart people will pause and reflect upon what is happening, lest it happen elsewhere. This is not a game sane people want to play. Societies melt down in a matter of days to weeks without electric power, water, food, transportation, communication, etc.

    We’ve yet to see how bad this is going to get. It will get a LOT worse before it gets better.

    670

    • #
      ExWarmist

      This is one of the best comments I’ve read for a while – anywhere.

      220

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Stop me if I’m wrong but I think you just explained why men went up the tower to get a young kid who came prepared to climb it and got bit because he didn’t understand that he didn’t need to touch the power cables. They’re supported on 14 foot insulators and will throw an arc 10 or 11 feet according to what I was told.

      They did not shut down the plant providing power to that line but instead risked rescue workers to get the kid down while it was still hot.

      Not exactly my kind of job.

      80

      • #
        Lance

        The kid’s body was essentially an antenna. The corona around the conductors probably induced a 90 to 150 volt potential upon the kid, even at 10 meters (30 ft) away.

        14 ft insulators imply a phase to phase voltage of around 168 kV to 200 kV.

        It was a Primary Transmission Line.

        Kid is lucky he didn’t get any closer or he’d likely have burst into flames.

        Shutting that line down was probably not an option without taking an entire city off line.

        I’ve seen people literally explode after contacting a 7,500 volt line. The line you are speaking of would have left nothing but a spot on the wall or a few cinders.

        Stupid people play stupid games and get stupid prizes. Some things never give you a second chance, and fairness has nothing to do with it.

        150

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          The kid lived after being zapped and didn’t fall so they had to go up to get him. According to reports afterward he lived about a week while doctors scratched their heads trying to figure out why he was still alive. Every organ was heated beyond ability to recover so he must have tried to stand up on the crossbar just below the conductors and taken a direct arc to ground.

          Last I heard his mother sued Edison. I didn’t follow it after that. There’s no good resolution to a case like that when the courts will likely hold Edison responsible for someone who comes equipped to get high enough to use the ladder the rest of the way and gets killed. There’s not a hand or foothold on those towers until about 30 feet from the ground.

          Big signs warned, “HIGH VOLTAGE,” but that doesn’t matter to teenagers ignorant of what electricity is all about.

          90

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Electricity is no joke. One windy morning I was driving to work and a line way ahead of me was brought down and a transformer lit up so bright it blinded me from near a mile away in broad daylight.

            110

    • #
      David Wojick

      In the ever-green US we now have several States that have passed LAWS mandating 100% renewable power generation by time certain, with more such laws coming. It may be too late to learn. Does Oz have laws like this?

      90

      • #
        Lance

        Oz has “coercion” like that.

        “Renewable Energy Targets”. Commitment to the Paris Accord. Subsidies. Feed in Tariffs, Etc.

        Specific laws mandating national suicide? Not so much.

        When Malcolm Turnbull committed AU to the Paris Accords, his son, Alex, became a multi millionaire overnight because he had prior invested in Wind Energy at Infigen Corp. https://stopthesethings.com/tag/keshik-capital-alex-turnbull/

        AU hasn’t been so coarse as to mandate a timeline, but they have mandated an outcome on CO2 emissions. Much the same thing, but rather more polite.

        After Turnbull and Son, many coal fired generators were shut down and their turbines and alternators sold to China. Something like burning the ships after reaching the new world. No way back, only forward.

        Forgive my cynicism, but economically and politically astute persons like the Turnbulls know quite well what they are doing and who is paying for it.

        120

      • #
        Analitik

        The ACT has done this already. That’s where our Federal government is bases so go figure….

        40

    • #
      John PAK

      I wonder what happens if we see a Carrington type CME colliding with the atmosphere over North America. If those super-grid transformers are not off-the-shelf kit it sounds like we’d be better off with a cellular grid that has multiple circuit-breaker points that can be remotely tripped at short notice. Black-starting must be easier if the entire tree is already isolated at nodal points.

      My house has a grid isolator switch so I can then engage my back-up generator. Would it help if every house and business had isolators ?

      10

    • #
      yarpos

      One of the first things we do when we have a black out these days is throw the generator transfer switch to off, isolating the house from the grid. That way we dont get to enjoy all the dynamics going on across the grid as power comes back. Then we power up again when things are stable. Doing our little bit to help people in control rooms everywhere.

      20

    • #
      ghl

      “The primary problem is that everything that was connected to the grid when it crashed is still connected.”
      Except for all the large loads that use contactors that only hold in while power is present. (Standard for most big motors).
      The same is true for all the transmission lines.
      They have 67% hydro, a nice stable reliable base to restart.
      I suspect that the problem is the military dictatorship.
      If your boss points a gun at you and says “fix it now” the only rational response is “yes sir, immediately sir” and then run when he looks away.
      Every dollar that should have been spent on the network is diverted to a swiss bank account.

      20

  • #

    Maybe a little technology exchange between WA and Venezuela? WA can show them how to exist on less and highly fluctuating electricity.

    90

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Venezuela today. The rest of us tomorrow if we aren’t careful.

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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      After reading this I was struck by the following thought…

      Maybe Edison had it right after all. DC gets rid of all the phase synchronization problems so a DC grid might be a lot easier to restore from a black start. It seems that Venezuela could use a DC grid about now.

      On the other hand failure to keep the grid maintained will leave you cold even if you work hard at not letting power problems bite.

      70

      • #
        Yonniestone

        Well Roy they’re already heading back to BC so Why not.

        90

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Tesla showed the world Edison’s misjudgment. But with greater flexibility and advantage comes the complexity making it harder to black start. And for that matter, probably harder to withstand some failures so something goes down that wasn’t affected by the original failure.

          80

      • #
        Lance

        Um, No, Roy, DC (Edison) would not solve the AC (Tesla) issue.

        The Load is the Load. Period. A 1 MW load needs a 1 MW supply. DC or AC doesn’t matter.

        An AC system can transmit that 1 MW as 3 Phase Delta at 100 KV Line to Line voltage at 5.77 amps on each leg. Or as 380 V Delta at 152 amps.

        A DC system of 1 MW at 100 KV line to ground, has a line current of 10 Amps or at 380 V, a line current of 2630 amps.

        DC distribution at voltages below about 10 KV as a single line system is not efficient.

        DC “can” be more efficient at higher voltages (500 kV to 1000 kV) and as a 2 or 3 leg system, but at the cost of being limited to not more than 5 substations along the pathway due to the cost of DC to AC conversion. AC is more flexible in terms of the number of substations as well as voltages.

        There are tradeoffs. “Gas, Grass, Cash or As@, Nobody Rides for Free” (K-Dee, 1994).

        130

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Among all the 3 phase lines that come into Los Angeles at Sylmar there is one DC line. It’s obvious when you drive under it because there are only 2 cables, not 3. Actually the conductors are cable pairs so the current carrying capacity must be pretty high.

          I don’t know where the other end of that line is and I couldn’t even guess at insulator length, there isn’t much time to gawk at it as you drive under it at freeway speeds. But they are subjectively very long. I always wondered why it was built but you’e given me the answer. If the voltage can be high enough it can be more efficient. So the trade off is between the cost of conversion to/from AC and the cost of losses in transmission. DC has no surface effect.

          20

      • #

        Some of the high power interconnects are DC and use semiconductor switch stacks capable of turning high voltage DC into AC and visa-versa.

        https://www.gegridsolutions.com/PowerD/catalog/hvdc.htm

        80

        • #
          Lance

          Yes, they do. But the number of substations on a HVDC line are limited. HVDC is only economical for distances of 1,600 km or greater.

          HVAC is good for about 800 kM or so. Its a tradeoff. The higher the voltage, the more leakage and corona discharge. The longer the line, the more inductance it has.

          Nothing about an HV grid is simple.

          That’s why I’m so amazed that art history majors and social justice warriors think they have a ghost of a clue about such things.

          It is a miracle that national size grids work at all, and then only due to extraordinary efforts of Linemen, Power Engineers, and such.

          “The simplest things in life are the ones about which one has absolutely no understanding”.

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          • #

            Diamond based semiconductors seem to be the enabling technology for reducing the cost of HVDC and these are still in their infancy. It will be interesting to see where it goes. High voltage DC to DC could even become smaller, cheaper and more efficient than 60Hz transformers, much like what has happened with switching power supplies.

            20

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            A blunt answer is most greenies appear to be humanites based – no concept of tech.

            Clasic case in point is the iphone vs android arguemnt.

            You need a few more brains to drive an android phone IMHO, and very little to drive an iphone as its all been “numpty-proofed” by locking users out of it. Corporate non-tech types like Iphones, techies seem to like android. Obviously there will be exceptions, but thats my observation so far.

            One outspoken techie who is a “wooden headed” character who is very MSM compatible shall we say, says that an iphone gives you greater privacy. I laughed at his comment ( struck me as amazingly ignorant ) – as long as GCHQ & NSA exist, you have no privacy…..but he seems to ignore the elephant in the room…oh and he’s a by-the-book greenie too…..

            50

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              Actually, this was supposed to be a response to #5, not sure how it wound up down here….

              00

            • #
              yarpos

              My wifes friends are always impressed with how configurable her Android phone is. They are all “I” people. She is particularly technical but Android phones are what she has always had so she just takes it for granted and is a bit perplexed by the Apple world.

              10

          • #
            Bob Cherba

            “That’s why I’m so amazed that art history majors and social justice warriors think they have a ghost of a clue about such things.”
            That’s how I feel about the liberal/left love of renewable power and the belief they have that wind and solar plus fairy-tale-batteries can power our lives 24/7. They don’t have sufficient science education to understand how things work, think we can do anything if the government mandates it, and that big, profit-making businesses are slow to implement their RE ideas to protect their investments and profits. Even though they know the sun only shines about 50% of the time, and wind varies throughout the day and year, they somehow think there’s a way to fill in without using dispatchable fossil fuels.
            I’m an ancient EE and spent 33 years in and around generating plants and transmission systems. I was in my first coal plant in Michigan 1965 when the Northeast US experienced a blackout. We only saw the frequency excursion on our system, but the blackout showed that our emergency battery systems failed much earlier than designed, communications systems failed, etc., etc. We also learned or were reminded that hot turbine-generator rotors develop a bend when the batteries powering the turning gears and oil pumps fail before the rotors cool. To restart, the rotors have to be rotated for hours to straighten them out before they can be returned to service. Just about every pipeline in a plant has motor-operated valves. They can be operated manually, but some of them will be difficult, if not impossible. And chances are the emergency lighting batteries will run out and much of the restoration work will be done using flashlights.

            When steam units trip from full power, relief valves open to vent steam to the atmosphere. The steam will cut the seats on some of these valves and they will require repair before the unit can be returned to service.

            Then there’s the issue of manpower. The utility crews that operate the power system are small, because they are sized for normal operations. In the US, power companies have mutual-assistance pacts so they help each other during emergencies; however, if a wide area goes black, there aren’t enough qualified people available.

            Bottom line: Widespread failure of a power system is the ultimate test of equipment and people, especially in a poorly maintained system.

            50

        • #

          HVDC are used for undersea cables (no substations there) and we have at least one small surface interconnector that is HVDC in Australia. Murraylink — connecting north Vic to SA (it’s not the main interconnector which is AC — Heywood).

          Murraylink is two 180-kilometre (110 mi) long bipolar HVDC cable. The circuit has an operating voltage of 150 kV and a transmission capacity of 220 megawatts.

          While Murraylink is rated at 220MW, it is unable to operate at capacity during periods of high demand due to limitations in the transmission infrastructure at either end.[4] The limitations relate to thermal overload of transformers or transmission lines supplying the Riverland (for South Australia to Victoria transmission) and western Victoria (for Victoria to South Australia transmission).[5]

          I gather that Murraylink is run “full” a lot of the time so can’t usually provide any help in crisis times either because there isn’t much space capacity? But it sounds from Wiki like there are other issues too. And naturally a DC line can’t help maintain frequency stability except to provide current that could in theory be converted to the right frequency.

          70

  • #
    mikewaite

    Contrary to what is, I suspect, the general trend of comments about the Venezuela situation, potential
    dictators around the world,not excluding the US, UK and Australia, will take encouragement from what is happening there.
    Chavez and Maduro have shown that you can take a modern , prosperous nation and reduce it to barbarism,
    savagery, despair and famine and still retain power, and make yourself and your family very, very rich.
    Despite condemnation from powerful neighbours like USA and Brazil , Maduro can just flip the finger and carry on.
    There is no reason that it should ever end. Only the fact that he was approaching 100 stopped the billionaire Mugabe
    who did something similar in Zimbabwe.

    180

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Tell that to the Ceaușescus, late dictator of Romania and his wife. When everything finally went south they were apprehended by an angry mob as they tried to escape on foot and were easily sentenced to death at trial…not exactly a good situation to be caught in.

      Trying to be the evil dictator is a dangerous occupation when trouble comes.

      Romania has not recovered either. The report from someone who left Romania says corruption is rampant.

      140

    • #
      J.H.

      “Chavez and Maduro have shown that you can take a modern , prosperous nation and reduce it to barbarism,
      savagery, despair and famine and still retain power, and make yourself and your family very, very rich.”

      … Not if you are Peter Fitzroy and others of like minded socialist ilk. To them the problems with Venezuela are completely the fault of America, the CIA and destabilization coups.

      These people live in a perpetual self imposed ignorance. They believe that America is evil, Capitalism is evil, Free markets are unfair. The only way Socialism fails is because America interferes…. They will not have it any other way.

      31

  • #
    Yonniestone

    I can’t see the problem, any real socialist knows you can always print more electricity.

    330

    • #
      Dennis

      No need to print electricity, green socialist renewable energy is free.

      170

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      You get a gold star, maybe several for that creative solution. :-)

      110

    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      More likely they will rely on evading reality and wish power back into existence. In the process of trying to bring it back, they will destroy the power generation and distribution network. Apocalypse now!

      To cover up the fact that they can’t bring it back, they will start blaming power deniers and executing them. Then they will say all the lights and motors are working except for a few selected areas. Meaning all the areas that formerly used electricity.

      It is back to the literal dark ages by a population already scavenged nearly to the point of death. Since they voted for it, let them live and die because of it. We have NO obligation to save them from their just end.

      120

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Must be why North Korea is dark when seen from space at night. Only Pyongyang, the capitol is lit up brightly at night.

        But of course, they did’t get to vote on it.

        20

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      Just pass a law. That usually works.

      30

  • #
    Sambar

    Meanwhile I have not noticed this being reported on main stream media in Ausrtalia. Maybe I have just missed it or something.

    180

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Electricity is so overrated anyway .

    100

  • #
    Lance

    Just as an exercise, let’s approximately quantify 1 GW.

    1 GW = 1 Million kW. 1 kW = 1 Hp (approx).

    A Diesel/Electric Locomotive is approximately 3,000 Hp.

    1 GW = 333 Locomotives at full power, approximately.

    Connecting a 1 GW power plant into a dead short (black start grid) is equivalent to slamming 333 Locomotives at full throttle into a mountainside.

    This is why the 1 meter dia turbine shafts twist or shear, the alternators burst into flames, and the substations explode.

    The Venezuela grid is approximately 26 GW in capacity. Roughly equal to 8,600 Locomotives at full throttle.

    Imagine what happens when that amount of power is instantly met by at 50,000 Locomotive equivalent, dead short circuit, load.

    I’m trying to quantify the magnitude of the problem in terms of something ordinary people have some passing experience with.

    The short story is that unbelievable amounts of energy are dissipated in a fraction of a second. Think large scale explosion.

    This scenario is what they are trying to manage. How to energize a 50,000 Locomotive load with only 8,600 locomotives, and do so without breaking things. As well, trying to do this while the people who know how to do it have already fled the country.

    It isn’t a rosy outlook.

    331

    • #
      joseph

      Can’t help but wonder what Nikola Tesla would be thinking about all of this . . . . . .

      40

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        I don’t know what Nicola Tesla would think about any of this. But I do think it’s a shame that until electric cars came along the only thing he was remembered for was all the fireworks he generated trying to broadcast power around through the air while ignoring the laws of physics.

        At the very least we owe him an incalculable debt for just two things, the transformer and the induction motor. The transformer makes the thing we call the grid possible and some form of induction motor is at the heart of every appliance you have and yet we remember Tesla for sparks and now, his name on an automobile that is just hiding the real source of the energy that runs it.

        He deserves better than that.

        20

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      South Australia managed it, you do need to physically pull and replace fuses and switches though.

      415

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        Itz over.
        XXXXX XX X

        61

      • #
        AndyG55

        You are LYING yet again , POC

        South Australia is a TINY fraction of Australia’s supply, Connected to the grid by a highly protected umbilical cord.

        Without that link, SA electricity would have collapsed ages ago.

        132

      • #
        crakar24

        LOL Peter,

        Stop talking about things you dont understand, go back to trying to explain how putting CO2 between the sun and a thermometer causes the temp to rise and leave all the big boy stuff to others.

        161

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          SA had a black start. They managed it without blowing anything up. This is because the grid has breakers, fuses and switches designed to isolate portions of the grid for maintenance. They can also be used to bring the grid back, bit by bit.
          Which bit do I not understand?

          513

          • #
            crakar24

            SA grid failed due to Snowtown wind plant disconnecting from the grid thus causing the interconnector to trip and lights out.

            Venezeula grid failed (subject to current reports) one of three 760KV (approx) lines physically failing, thats 33% of the load now transferred to the other two lines causing them to trip and lights out.

            80% of their power uses these three transmission lines, theoretically they can only supply 66% of this 80% until they fix the problem hence why some areas have power and others dont. This is not a matter of flicking a few switches as you state.

            Then there is the small matter of reconnecting power to the grid elloquently described several times above.

            The question here is how did this happen? It would seem to appear as though it has come about through neglect (this info is sketchy) the problem you have is old high voltage equipment does not like to be turned off and on again and it is at this point you discover various failures being introduced that were not there before. This could potentially take months to get the entire grid back up and running.

            Is there a lesson learned here for us Peter? I think there is, we currently have two choices of party and both are driven by ideology WRT power generation. None of them understand what happens beyond the light switch in there bedroom or the switching on of a kettle. I liken it to the question “where does milk come from”……………why the supermarket of course!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

            Decades of socialist rule with a complete lack of understading with regards to all things important is what caused this debacle and those of us who have experienced blackouts and high power prices are getting a taste of it now.

            So just go back to your hand wringing and clenching of teeth as we approach you imaginary hand rails and tipping points.

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          • #

            Peter Fitzroy,

            you cannot compare the situation in Venezuela with what happened in South Australia, just by saying South Australia handled it.

            South Australia had to get back on line to the tune of around 1200MW, for a grid in a First World Country.

            The grid in Venezuela is eight times the size of that, with a grid nowhere near as good as that of South Australia, and in a Developing Country.

            And a general comment to all readers to consider.

            Here in Australia, we have a population of 25 Million people and as a Country as a whole, we consume (around) 220TWH of power each year.

            Venezuela has a population of 31 Million, and that Country consumes around 120TWH of power a year.

            So, even as a Country supposedly doing well. because of their oil riches, they still only get by on half the electricity we do here in Australia, so widespread access to electricity is not to the same standard as we take for granted here.

            Tony.

            210

            • #
              Analitik

              Also, South Australia’s local black start facility failed (due to improper procedures not fully isolating the turbine that was to be re-energised by the diesel, black start generator). The SA grid was brought back up through the Heywood interconnector after incredibly fast work by network engineers restored the tripped circuits.

              150

            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              Tony, are you saying that the Venezuelans have a different recovery procedure? that was the point I was making. All grids can be selectively energised or energized segment by segment.

              215

              • #

                And South Australia only lost half a billion dollars too. Just Nuthin’

                And even in a rich first world nation it took two weeks before Olympic Dam in SA could get started again.

                160

              • #
                yarpos

                Yes Peter people just turned stuff on and off, simples really.

                10

              • #
                Bobl

                No, you are assuming that segment loadings are known, this works in a very controlled environment like Australia but in the socialist nirvana of Venezuela loading aren’t known, so the order of restoration, or whether it’s possible at all is in doubt. It’s quite possible that large sections of their grid can’t be restored without upgrading the switch gear protecting these overloaded switchable sections.

                Without correct design and appropriate protection coordination of switching restoration can be impossible. Also switchgear is usually designed for a certain number of switching operations, in a rundown network where switch gear is near their limits you may exceed the number of switching operations in the process of bringing a section up.

                It could take months and $millions to fix this mess.

                Peter, please stop simplifying these very technical matters beyond reason. Next time you are in Bali have a look at their electrical connections compare and contrast to Australia.

                30

          • #
            Lance

            Well, Peter Fitzroy, the “bits” you don’t understand are as follows:

            1. “Breakers, fuses, and switches” that are available to isolate lines, loads, and substations, for “maintenance” , are not the same thing as short circuit current safety relaying that activate in fractions of a second during overload situations.

            Evidently, you don’t understand the difference between “maintenance” and “catastrophe”.

            2. The existence of protective relaying and such things simply mean the grid was designed to protect itself from a catastrophic event. The existence of those things IN NO WAY imply that the grid can recover or reconnect to the loads that existed when the fail safe disconnect occurred.

            3. The instantaneous peak load that exists when a generator is engaged into a complex (read: Real and Reactive Power) load is mathematically somewhere between 1.0 and Infinity, far beyond what “fuses and circuit breakers” can handle.

            4. Your simplification of the problem is indicative of a total and complete lack of knowledge of complex AC power systems.

            5. The concept that a 2nd or 3rd world power system has modern SCADA capabilities is telling.

            6. There have already been catastrophic failures in substations, HV switchgear, and Generation. The very idea that these rare, high power, long lead-time items are somehow “easy” to fix or repair, speaks again to your total lack of knowledge of anything remotely connected to the reality at hand.

            So tell me, Mr. Wizard,

            0: exactly what are the Thevenin-Norton short circuit equivalents of the Venezuelan Grid and what sub loops represent each transmission , generation, and distribution system?

            Are they single, double, multiple loops? At what level are the transmission and distribution systems isolated?
            How is Generation protected from each loop?
            What is the fault current tolerance of both generation and distribution at each node?

            What is the black start load flow for the entire grid?

            What generator provides the swing voltage to compensate for kVar injection and where or when does that happen?

            What is the effect of instantaneous short circuit currents on frequency within each sub loop or overall generation loop?

            How does a crippled grid compensate for frequency or voltage collapse during a restart scenario?

            We can do this for hundreds more questions, but I’m patient and willing to wait for your initial response.

            Cheers.

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              Lance

              PS: Fitzroy

              If you get ANY of this wrong, people die. Infrastructure is damaged further. Untold amounts of investment are lost.

              Jobs are gone. Hospitals collapse. Schools close. Businesses close. People are sickened and die.

              You see, there is a Price to be paid for failure. It isn’t hypothetical. It is real.

              So factor that into any glib and irresponsible explanations of how easy it is to solve this situation. You Personally are responsible.

              Cheers.

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              Peter Fitzroy

              Why should I know? All I’m saying is that the grid is made of components which enable a black start. The example I used was South Australia. As to your comments about SCADA, Siemens is heavily involved in the grid there, and they do 1st world SCADA. Your colonial mindset is letting you down here.

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                OriginalSteve

                We will believe you actually put your political money where you mouth is when you emigrate to north korea

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              • #
                Lance

                Well, Fitz, the reasons why you “Should Know” are precisely why you Don’t Know.

                In a concentrated, coupled, economy with integrated health, water, sewer, hvac, transportation, production, distribution, and storage, it is paramount that electricity be uninterrupted.

                Failing the social and moral responsibility to maintain that system is an act of inhumanity, ignorance, treason, or war.

                That you so glibly discount these responsibilities is an indication of a sociopathic mentality.

                That you so glibly discount the actual causes, effects, requirements, and necessities of the affected systems is a clear indication of ignorance or malfeasance. Pointedly, you avoid any sense of responsibility for the outcomes or causes of this crisis. Have you no shame?

                The grid is NOT made of components that enable a black start. The grid is made of components that barely avoid a black start.

                Your progressive and ignorant mindset is letting you down here.

                Cheers, Fitz.

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                AndyG55

                “Why should I know? “

                We know you don’t know, much about anything..

                .. that is why your comments are ALL so meaningless and a waste of space.

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                Bobl

                You assume that design was done. Grids grow, most grids have never been dark, their black start capability is theoretical and dependent on the match between the theoretical loads and actual starting loads over the Whole grid.

                Venezuela has been allowed to decline by socialist rule they don’t have Gillards “gold plated network” that can cleanly restart.

                This will be messy. You simplify too much trying to defend your ideology. There is no defence, Venezuela’s demise is front and centre and it’s not caused by the West. The west didn’t start this but is doing its best to end the pain for millions of people their. This is called compassion.

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            • #

              I second everything said here by Lance, and I’d also like to point out something he wrote where he mentioned Inductive Load.

              Now, while this problem is electrically related, it has a lot also to do with Maths, and this is complex, so I hope you can see the point here.

              Go look at the vector diagram at this link, and keep in mind this is basic and for the purpose of explanation only.

              This is a vector diagram for a parallel circuit, and keep in mind everything connected on a grid is connected in parallel. The Load is connected across the Input.

              The zero line, horizontal scale shows the Voltage and the Resistive Current in phase (IR and V) The Capacitive Current (IC) is 90 degrees Leading, hence pointing upwards. (for want of better phrasing) The Inductive Load is 90 degrees Lagging, hence pointing downwards.

              The resultant (take away the smaller vertical from the larger vertical) forms that square you see there and the Load Current (Is) is at that angle (theta) formed from zero out to the end of that square, and here is shown, as is nearly always the case, (the red line) as partly Inductive, on the bottom side of the horizontal.

              Now, while this vector diagram is for example only, see that angle (theta) that angle needs to be as close as is possible to that horizontal. With the use of trigonometry, that angle theta ends up being referred to as the Power Factor, the relationship between True Power (along that horizontal line) and Apparent Power. (along the Red line.)

              In almost EVERY Country in the World, that Power Factor is mandated at 0.8 at its absolute lowest, (and perfect is 1 or exactly on that horizontal scale) and in most Countries in the Developed World, that Power Factor is actually closer to 0.9. If you have an inductive load, then you need to install Power Factor correction equipment, not cheap either to get that power factor back closer to 1.

              Okay, now having painted the picture, Lance mentioned Inductive Load, and how it draws 6 times the load on startup.

              EVERY single building taller than 2 levels in every city has a huge air conditioning Unit on the roof, to get filtered and conditioned breathing air into and out of each of those buildings.

              Each Unit has a large compressor, the taller the building, the larger the compressor. A compressor is a huge electric motor, and is an INDUCTIVE load.

              Start up the generators and turn on the grid, and it will try and start but immediately go back off line.

              What has to be done here is to completely isolate each and every one of those compressors by turning off each AC unit in each building, and then, when the grid does come back, then start them all back up again progressively, so the grid can handle the load.

              That is a large part of the overall problem.

              Tony.

              (Lance, I hope I got it all right here)

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                Lance

                Yes, in the large. :)

                The vector diagram is relationally identical. As I learned it, the inductive vector is vertical up, the capacitive vector is vertical down, and the resistive vector is horizontal right facing. Regardless of orientation, if the references are kept, in any case, the outcome is the same.

                Suffice to say that AC systems have peculiar, but necessary, calculations. Apparent power (that which the generator must provide) is the vector sum of the inductive, capacitive, and resistive components. In general, the inductive and resistive vectors rule unless intentional capacitive reactance is provided. Industrial loads are mostly inductive. Residential loads are a mix of inductive and resistive loads. That is why utility companies install capacitor banks: to correct the actual power factor. And also why grids are designed with an inherent assumption of a 0.80 power factor ( Cos(phi) ). The power factor is the Cosine of the angle between the Imaginary and Real vectors. If the Imaginary vector phase angle is Zero, then all of the power is converted to actual, real work. As it is with a resistive load having no imaginary component. If the ratio of imaginary to real power is +, then the angle is positive and the actual power is less than the real power but the apparent power is the vector sum of the components. If the ratio of imaginary to real power is – , then the apparent power is larger than the real power but is “lagging” . IE, the current is “behind” the voltage. If the current and voltage are absolutely in phase and the reactive power is zero, then the actual power is equivalent to a DC system..

                In any case, motors are Induction Machines and require imaginary/complex power to make the AC system work. It is this reactive power that conflicts a grid and the fact that at Zero RPM, a motor has an infinite current draw (series wound). This is what “spikes” any power system . Motors. DC or AC. Their mass at zero RPM requires tremendous current to intialize rotation. That is what tasks a power grid. Resistive loads are simple loads. Reactive loads cause very burdensome transient conditions on both voltage and current.

                In the end, you are correct. It is simply a maths problem. In reality, it is a torque issue at the turbine/genset.

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                Lance,

                I learned, and taught, using the acronym CIVIL.

                In a Capacitive Circuit (the C at the start of the acronym) the Current (I) leads the voltage (V) and in an Inductive (the L at the end of the acronym) the current (the second I) lags the Voltage. (V)

                You can work out the vector diagrams, for Series circuits, where current becomes the horizontal axis, and the Voltages are the vertical axes, (VL up and VC down) or parallel circuits, as with the one I showed.

                Tony.

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                Curious George

                Tony, this is not my cup of tea, but having lived in a country with rolling blackouts I learned that you don’t just attempt to add one generator where two hundred are needed. You use switches to isolate areas of urgent need, like hospitals, and start providing power to them. Slowly you add generators and provide power to more areas. It sounds easy, but easy it is not. With military running almost everything in Venezuela they probably don’t have real professionals.

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              • #
                yarpos

                Bit harsh on the military I think. I have met/worked with many very professional military and ex military Engineers and technical people. Venezuela I guess is another story , one can assume the military are as dysfunctional as the country I guess.

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              • #
                Curious George

                I guess that an electrical grid maintenance is probably not taught in Sandhurst or in West Point. No offense intended.

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              • #
                yarpos

                Not really taught at college or university either, just the base knowledge for further learning in the field. I imagine it takes many years to get your mind around all aspects and build real experience.

                10

              • #

                yarpos,

                Not really taught at college or university either, just the base knowledge for further learning in the field. I imagine it takes many years to get your mind around all aspects and build real experience.

                It’s funny really. When I was doing my trade training back in the late 60s and early 70s, that Maths I showed above was something we learned, and like most things you learn, not much longer after the exam, it fades from your mind, or so you think, and you wonder if ever you’ll ever get to use those things you learned.

                Then, in ’86, they sent me back to teach that trade to new guys starting out on their careers, and I wondered how I could even teach it at all.

                That maths based part of the curriculum was Elec Tech 2, and it was one of the longest ‘phases’ (subjects) of the whole course, coming in at around four and a half weeks. I was given responsibility for the subject, and that entailed looking after the Master Subject, the lesson plans, and the sequence of instruction. No one really wanted it because it was just so difficult, (a) to understand, and (b) to actually teach it.

                For weeks I worked at trying to work it out, and I was amazed how it came back to me, never having had anything to do with it for almost 15 years. The it was off the deep end and my first class at teaching it, and our Boss (our Electrical Warrant Officer) sat in to see how well I was doing, first time and everything, and after four or so days, he didn’t come back, so I guess he thought I was doing okay.

                Trying to teach complex maths to kids barely out of high school, or adult trainees was not easy.

                However, it’s all worth it when you see the lights go on, and they finally get it.

                The thing here is that even though I had all that training, I was typical of all students thinking that it would not get much use after the exam. So, from that, I learned a lesson, that all I had learned was still in there, and would eventually (and all the time) be of some use.

                As I started out on this blogging thing more than eleven years back now, those original concepts were of immense assistance, as I found I could understand it all, just by looking at it, and some of it, I hadn’t ‘seen’ or had anything to do with for forty years.

                Sometimes, something that seems so simple to look at is actually important, and tells so much, but only if you know, and understand what it is you are looking at.

                The simple Load Curve is the prime example of that.

                Tony.

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              • #
                Roy Hogue

                Capacitive Current (IC) is 90 degrees Leading, hence pointing upwards. (for want of better phrasing) The Inductive Load is 90 degrees Lagging, hence pointing downwards.

                Tony,

                I used to think I knew a little about the subject until this thread came along. But I just can’t resist displaying my ignorance by asking, are those two 90° angles exactly 90°? For some reason — probably my ignorance — that does’t seem right to me. In a reactive circuit if the lag or lead is exactly 90° you aren’t doing any work, no energy is moving. You can have high circulating current wasting energy as heat, hence keeping the power factor close to unity with capacitors or indicators.

                Have I confused your meaning with something else?

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  • #
    Kinky Keith

    Lance’s post is a sobering walk through the complexities of the modern extended electricity system.

    Thanks.

    KK

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    • #
      ExWarmist

      I’ll second that comment.

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      PeterS

      My brother is a very clever and experienced electrician. He explained to me how complicated the power grid is even without renewables. Renewables only make the whole system many times more complicated and vulnerable. Sure it can be done but at much higher costs. Are Australians willing to pay for the costs necessary to maintain a viable and reliable power grid that entails a high proportion of renewables? I think we are about to find out the answer is a resounding no regardless of who is in government. As typical it’s better to learn things the hard way. I just hope we wake up sooner rather than later and avoid a crash and burn.

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        PR Mann

        that’s the crux of it Peter. The average punter has no idea how electricity is delivered. They just think we should make it sustainably from renewables, free energy. I think we are in big trouble because of this. Its becoming the mainstream now, and I don’t share your positivity regarding the voting public saying no.

        However, if people knew how complicated even a centralised ‘dumb’ grid is to operate, they wouldn’t dare go the renewable ‘smart’ grid route.

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        • #
          PeterS

          We will learn to say no eventually but probably not until we have our crash and burn. History repeats, nations learn the hard way, then forget to repeat the same mistakes. Cycles, cycles and more cycles.

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            Analitik

            Yep. Still hoping it’s South Australia that suffers from the catastrophic grid collapse to minimise the damage that such and event causes.

            50

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              Yeah but as everyone in SA is living in green socialist utopia, they will cheer when the rest of australia collapse to their pitiful level…..

              I wonder how they would run decent wineries without electricity?

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              • #
                PeterS

                What about the subs they are supposed to be building? BTW they will be pretty much useless by the time even the first one is ready. To be honest I doubt they will ever be built. We will be defaulting by then.

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        • #
          yarpos

          There was a guy commenting on an Age energy article the other day saying how they whole energy debate was pointless, as in the next 10 years we would all have our own power via solar and batteries, “fact!” he asserted.

          I think it was Ocasio Cortez trolling us.

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          • #
            Bobl

            Such myopia, these idiots only ever think about domestic electricity which can in limited cases IE residences that are NOT agenda 2030 high rise guided cages, become self reliant for energy. Try to do that for bluescope or Alcoa or even a high rise apartment building.

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      • #
        Andrew McRae

        Renewables only make the whole system many times more complicated and vulnerable. Sure it can be done but at much higher costs.

        It can be done?
        https://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/000/840/283/350.png

        Heheh.

        Was also going to make the inference about Smart Grids, but I see PR Mann has already said it.

        A large part of this problem has nothing to do with politics and more to do with system design. Because each generator can fail, for continuity of service to consumers we have a cluster of generators connected to consumers by a Grid which is managed to perform load balancing.
        The point of failure stops being your nearest generator and becomes the whole grid. However that means the grid is Too Big To Fail. This is true regardless of what policies you have in place.

        What has changed is that new policies have added a truckload of highly variable generators (renewables), plus have forced high constant-use consumers (eg aluminium refinery) to load-shed in times of high demand which makes them now a variable consumer with a big step down. The grid-level variance that used to be unlikely has become more likely. When a generator fails, the grid can bail them out by providing a stable frequency to synchronously rejoin. But who bails out the grid? Others have explained the boot-strapping process already. The grid restart process appears like the gestation of a foetus when all of evolution is replayed at high speed to get from proto-fish to human. Not pretty and not something you want to do very often.

        Like everything else that is Too Big To Fail, the assumption is that the government will bail it out. AEMO will direct the proto-fishes to re-evolve, with quite a bit of help typically from coal-fired plants in Queensland. Unfortunately there is no other cheaper solution as long as we want the load balancing advantage of the grid.

        Can you imagine Greens voters paying out of their own pocket for a duplication of all electricity lines to make an electrically separate Renewable Grid running direct from Snowy 2 and Elon’s Folly all the way to the houses of every renewable-energy-only subscriber? Considering the cost it wouldn’t be a Smart Grid in any sense of the word. The moment you try to connect it to the old Fossil Grid to sell excess renewable power, you recreate the same variance problem. Natural gas peaking power plants would still get called in to take up the slack as soon as the renewable grid realises the weather isn’t co-operating. You may as well just have one smart grid, it’s less maintenance overhead and the load balancing of variable sources isn’t much worse. Therefore, there should be only one Grid, which makes it a “natural monopoly”, which is why the government regulates and practically own it, and is also why it is necessarily Too Big To Fail.

        Unless fusion power or Lithium-based fission is perfected, the use of renewable energy is inevitable in the long run, as fossil sources will be depleted. But that’s not for 50 years at least, possibly 900 years if you believe the spruikers of some mines. We should not be paying the cost of building a smart grid now when we have not yet reached the necessary decision point about renewables versus nuclear, and the society of the future is likely to be more wealthy than we are today. This is why all the smart grid arguments are about alleged costs of fossil fuel consumption, not their supply.

        Thankfully in the east we still have big switches (interconnectors) at State boundaries so only the foolhardy States such as SA and Vic are the worst affected. We want load balancing as an option but we want to eat our isolation cake too. Meanwhile the Westies have forbidden further rooftop solar and are just laughing at the rest of us.
        We wanted to build a 2200km extension cord so we could drag WA down into renewable hell with us, but then we remembered who’s making all the copper and iron for electrical equipment. :-D

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    PeterS

    The Green New Deal: Not For Americans
    but apparently is is for Australians. Good luck Australia.

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      robert rosicka

      Just listening to ABC radio and an interview with a student about the student strike and climate change etc etc and the student says we should just be going headfirst into solar etc , just do it .
      No thoughts about any tech details just do it and save the planet .

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      • #
        Travis T. Jones

        When they have to resort to using kids with a zero to basic understanding of mathematics to promote their failed doomsday to adults, you know the end is indeed nigh.

        If the global warming apocalypse was happening, there would be no need for anyone, let alone kids, to point it out.

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      • #
        PeterS

        My response to that sort of stupidity is OK let’s do it. Let’s usher in a crash and burn. Perhaps it’s the only way to wake more people up and finally decide both the LNP and the ALP+Greens deserve zero votes.

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          Serp

          You’ve worn me out PeterS with your relentless credulity about the electoral system ever possibly somehow having influence.

          The fix is in and even Tony Abbott has trimmed his sails.

          Turnbull & Son Proprietary has led the way and all the money men have flocked on board.

          As Thatcher put it, “there is no alternative” for Australia but to continue to endure, seemingly forever, the depredations of this class of elite parasites.

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    Greg Cavanagh

    I read an article about Venezuela back at Christmas, they were stealing and eating the zoo animals back then.

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    Kinky Keith

    Thanks Jo.

    A brilliant choice of focus that shows what happens when politicians can’t get through the door because their heads are too big.

    This run through on what can happen to an apparently civilised nation should be essential reading for all of our politicians.

    To believe that this can’t happen in Australia is wrong.
    Just think that would happen if the renewables reliant states of Victoria and South Australia were cut from the TAS and NSW supplies during times of stress. They could go under.

    And in ten years time, at the current rate of renewables introduction, most jobs will be overseas because Electricity is unaffordable and too unreliable to sustain businesses.

    The situation in Venezuela is a tragedy but I’m sure that the United Nations will be there soon to help and that politicians worldwide will heed the warnings.
    And then again, Pigs Might Fly.

    In the last decade we’ve seen the invasion of Europe and the destruction of an apparently civilised nation in Venezuela, the subjugation of the British people by the Elites and EEU hierarchy and of course, the never-ending war in the middle East.

    What does all this say about politics?

    KK

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      PeterS

      Our politicians has plenty of warning going back decades with other nations, such as Argentina. Our politicians are not interested in keeping this nation from collapsing. They are just career politicians and no more. Voters are just as clueless for not waking up to reality. They will have to one day but probably not until they get a really loud wake up call.

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      yarpos

      One might say the same about NSW’s fate if cut off from QLD. There is a lot of spare and stable capacity anywhere except maybe south QLD.

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  • #
    Lance

    Oh, as an aside, China is “offering” to “help” Venezuela with their grid.

    That “offer” is contingent upon transferring Venezuelan oil and mineral interests to China.

    China is actually bidding on a “fire sale” to control a sovereign nation. There is no altruism here.

    This is a geopolitical move to gain a firm foothold in South America and essentially “own” an entire nation.

    Wake up and see this move for what it is: Naked Power Grab.

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      el gordo

      Lance it seems China is looking after its commercial interests already in Venezuela, do you have a problem with the Belt and Road?

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      • #
        Lance

        Belt and Road = Trap.

        China has spent decades acquiring international debt instruments.

        Now China is seeking to spend that debt by indebting nations into economic servitude for the forseable future.

        Let’s just say the loan shark is calling in the debt and distributing it to any suckers who will take the bait.

        See: https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2017/05/14/what-is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative

        Debt is a trap. Economic suicide. China wants to win and this is how they plan to do it.

        So, yes, I do have a problem with the “Belt and Road” concept, insofar as it might compromise sovereignty.

        Socialistic governments pay for present day excess by kicking the debt can down the road. They finance those ideas with debt.

        China is willing to finance those ideas because they KNOW it ends in default. China only finances debt that will lead to Chinese domination.

        This is about Power. Not charity.

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          el gordo

          So we shouldn’t ask them to build Hele coal fired power stations, high speed rail and satellite cities?

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            Lance

            Um. No. You should fund them yourselves, unless of course, you believe that your debt holder is working for free.

            Debt is equal to slavery for your children.

            Debt passes forward to your children the price of current day folly.

            See: Milton Friedman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKGaF_rZciA

            If you have 45 mins to spare, see “Money as debt” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nBPN-MKefA

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              el gordo

              We can’t fund them ourselves, it requires economies of scale.

              The Australian government will underwrite new Hele, but the green China Infrastructure Bank won’t lend us the money, so we’ll have to do business with the Princelings.

              If the Coalition doesn’t take up the offer, then a new Labor government will.

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              • #
                Lance

                Wouldn’t you rather choose that:

                Electrical Power is Governed as a Public Utility, subject to a 4 hr response time and an 8 hr resolution regardless of conditions?

                Utilities are allowed an 8% return on actual investment IF they serve the public?

                Electrical power provision is considered to be a National Security issue?

                National Debt external to your Nation, as related to Electrical Power, is illegal?

                We could go onward, but certainly you get the drift of things.

                It isn’t a convenience. It is a National necessity.

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                el gordo

                Sounds fair.

                If the government tenders for Hele its a certainty Beijing would win.

                They want to take over the world commercially, with this new form of capitalism, but obviously there is still a deep suspicion of their motives. A benevolent dictatorship lending a helping hand to Venezuela is a big plus for Beijing and it has little to do with socialist ideology.

                https://www.historyhit.com/what-are-the-causes-of-venezuelas-economic-crisis/

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                el gordo

                ‘Chinese President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to Rome on March 22 will be an important test of China’s diplomatic and economic clout. Claims that Italy has decided to sign an agreement for official participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) led to a rebuke by the U.S. Trump administration, which in turn brought to surface divisions within Italy’s populist coalition government.’

                The Diplomat

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            PeterS

            We probably won’t have to be asking them. They will do it when they very likely take us over as we crash and burn.

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            • #
              el gordo

              China is our biggest trading partner and they have no ambition to interfere with our way of life. No crash and burn or armed intrusion, but Beijing would prefer we gave up the deputy sheriff job in the American alliance.

              So no matter which of the majors win the election, its business as usual.

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          el gordo

          Beijing needs to secure its commercial interests.

          ‘Beijing is highly sensitive about any public discussion of its role in Venezuela. It has loaned the country $60bn in a series of oil-for-credit deals in which $20bn of debts are still outstanding.’

          Financial Times
           

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    Travis T. Jones

    Venezuela blackout halts most oil exports, hits crude upgrading: sources

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-exports/venezuela-blackout-halts-most-oil-exports-hits-crude-upgrading-sources-idUSKBN1QS1WW

    “It has been totally halted since the blackout.

    It has affected all of Jose’s oil installations,” another source said, adding that a restart would be costly and require power lines to be replaced.”

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    Steve Richards

    Lance paints a picture that demonstrates the size of the problem, in the worst case possible, with old, poorly maintained equipment.

    In the modern world, during a black out, all breakers open – throughout, the grid is dead.

    A generator set is run up, when up to voltage and speed, it connects to its grid, the grid is now energised but has no loads connected. Loads are connected slowly until the generator has reached perhaps 80% of its maximum output.

    Additional generators are started, synchronised to the live grid and connected, the load can be further increased.

    All this is normal in a modern, well maintained grid, with central control of switching.

    I feel sorry for the ordinary Venezuela citizens.

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    • #
      Lance

      Venezuela does not have a modern grid.

      It does have old, poorly maintained equipment.

      There is zero assurance that your description of how a grid is restarted actually applies to Venezuela.

      If things were as simple as you describe, North America would not have lost 1/3 of its grid in 16 seconds as Tony points out elsewhere.

      I, too, feel sorry for the Venezuelans. That said, they are now experiencing the results of Socialism and Cronyism that they voted for.

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    jack

    So far this year, we (SE Melbourne area) have had 3 power outages.
    That’s more than we have had in the previous 2 years.
    Who is John Galt?

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  • #

    When I hear of things like this, I always refer back to something that happened back in 2003, and is now referred to as the Great North East Blackout.

    Keep in mind that this is not a Developing Country, but the U.S.

    The blackout left an estimated 55 Million people without electricity. It covered 8 U.S. States and Ontario in Canada. At the end of the failure, there were 256 Power plants off line.

    Some power was restored locally in seven to eight hours around some of the plants which came back on line. Most areas took two days to come back on line, and some areas a week and two weeks later.

    The whole article is well worth reading to show the complexity of what it took to get things back.

    The time line of the failure is of interest, because while it builds up over three and a half hours, the major part of the outage occurred over 16 seconds. This is the link to that time sequence, and look at the start of the major outage at 4.10.34 (4.10PM plus 34 seconds)

    This is the link to the main article.

    Keep in mind that this is only 16 years back now, and this is in a First World Country, where the operation of a grid is handled a lot better than in a Country like Venezuela.

    Tony.

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    • #
      Lance

      Yep. 2003. Some trees in in Ohio shorted a transmission line and an alarm was ignored by the operators. 50 Million people without power in 90 mins.

      In 1965, some 30 Million were without power along N.E. US.

      A history of the largest outages: https://mentalfloss.com/article/57769/12-biggest-electrical-blackouts-history

      Venezuela has the added advantages of old and poorly maintained equipment, mass exodus of technicians and engineers, no money, a collapsed economy, no credit, and idiots / politicians at the helm in the midst of historic trauma.

      Does not look good for anyone who stayed.

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      Analitik

      It’s funny but when I was doing my electrical engineering degree (decades ago), grid engineers would come down from North America and Europe to talk to their Aussie counterparts because we were able to keep our grid up with frequency, voltage and phase swings that were well beyond what the Northerners would ever dreamed of coping with. This was due to our sparse (in terms of generation sources) but highly interconnected grid which approached the quarter wavelength of a 50Hz photon (think of the peak for a sine wave and the structure for an antenna).

      It is this expertise that masks the issues that renewables cause, making the politicians and lobbyists think that increasing renewables penetration can be extended from insignificant to substantial levels with no regard. They truly do not understand that the operation of a grid is pretty much an all or nothing proposition with rolling blackouts being the only way to “operate” a partial grid.

      An electricity grid is a fine example of complexity (many simple components connected in many ways) which is rarely understood by non-technical people.

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  • #
    JohnM

    This is crazy where

    The proven oil reserves in Venezuela are recognized as the largest in the world, totaling 297 billion barrels

    This is why China and Russia are propping the country up,
    so Maduro can keep paying the military and stay in power.

    The average IQ of Venezuela is 84 so maybe the people are getting the government they deserve and it will never be an advanced country.

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  • #

    Yes, Venezuela has a socialism problem and a corruption problem, but it also has a sanctions problem.

    With no imported diluents and no payments allowed except into escrow for a new government Venezuela has no way out. Its arrangements with China and Russia mean exports tend to flow into debt traps while other foreign companies/consortia can only do so much with the low oil price. (One might ask what Australia would do if its means of exporting coal and iron or taking payments for them were blocked.)

    The reality is that control over Venezuela’s oil gives the US a mix of its own light stuff and the rest of what it needs to go at Iran. Without oil from elsewhere, any hostilities in the Persian Gulf would lead to general disaster with the world’s most critical shipping lane blocked. The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s virtual nuke. But with its own shale and Venezuela’s conventional stuff, the US is less vulnerable to the inevitable oil shock resulting from any protraction of hostilities.

    If all goes well in toppling the governments of Venezuela and Iran (and stabilising Algeria, Iraq, Kurdistan etc), the petrodollar can defy gravity a bit longer and the US will have the oil empire it needs to support huge military commitments, Africom etc. Without that, its hollowed out industrial base and enormous debt may be too much. Who knows? Maybe another lunge at dismantling Syria and directing Qatar’s gas into Europe could pay off. That might make Turkey plus Germany plus the US all happy together again.

    My guess is that nothing will go to plan. Just too many balls in the air.

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    • #
      PeterS

      My guess is that nothing will go to plan. Just too many balls in the air.

      Yes, especially now the balls are colliding with each other. It’s going to end in tears.

      70

    • #
      Maptram

      You ask what would happen to Australia if it’s means of exporting coal were blocked.

      The means are being blocked, with the decision in NSW to stop a coal mine, and the protests in Qld to stop Adani, which have delayed the coal mining by years

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      • #

        You’re quite right. We’re seeing it happen right here. A country rich in all the necessary minerals and energy sources which can’t afford to run a smelter and can’t keep the lights on in hot weather. Now they’re coming for the exports. There are sanctions and there are sanctions.

        Caracas doesn’t have a sister or twin city in Oz yet. What about Adelaide or Melbourne?

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Just build more windmills. That’ll fix it.

    Oh, and they also need more socialism…

    100

    • #
      Maptram

      The problem is, as has been discussed in the last few days, iron ore and coal and other minerals are needed to build more windmills

      40

    • #
      Another Ian

      DM

      Socialism – is that the brand of grease used in the windmills now?

      A while back I saw a comment that just one wind farm in SE Colorado got a semi load of Mobil 1 a fortnight.

      60

  • #
    • #
      Bill in Oz

      EG I accept that global cooling is is about to happen.

      Based on what is happening now in the Northern hemisphere.

      But the ABC article ( linked to via Weatherzone ) does not support this ‘assertion’.

      Or have i missed something ?

      Bill

      30

    • #
      beowulf

      Cyclone update Gordo.

      That interesting anomaly I pointed to yesterday is now given a high chance of forming into a cyclone within 24 hours. It is 87 miles NE of Cocos Is and west of Christmas Is. Winds 49kph sustained, gusting 72kph. CP dropped to 1003hPa back up to 1005hPa. SST 29 deg, so a ton of energy to feed it. Rotation is well defined. The vortex has strengthened markedly, sucking in cloud from the north and west. It has moved slightly easterly. Might make it to WA after all.

      https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-8.2;103.0;4&l=rain-3h

      For the best view select PRECIPITATION from the menu if it doesn’t default.

      50

    • #
      jack

      It seems the fear mongering of the climate change catastrophe has been expedited lately.
      “If we don’t do something now, we’ll all be dead in 7 years”,
      The child protests,
      Repeated data homogenisation,
      Its ‘the issue’ of elections,
      “the greatest issue of out times”,
      and so forth.
      :
      Is it possible the merchants of fear know their race is nearly run?
      If after an 18 year plateau, with a peak at the end, we then enter a period of cooling; their subjective attack of CO2 causing warming would collapse.
      With that ‘the people’ will understand that climate change is just that, climate change.
      Is this just an all out assault to achieve their agenda before the ‘evidence of destruction’ balloon bursts?
      :
      Just wondering why the sudden increase of hysteria.
      It is this ‘sudden increase’ that caught my more acute attention on this subject, and then lead me to this site.

      50

      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        G’day jack,
        Why now? My guess is that there are at least a couple of reasons. The local one is the upcoming elections in state and commonwealth. The wider one is Donald Trump’s establishment of his Presidential Committee on Climate Change, which doesn’t appear popular with Democrats.
        So the propaganda machine has been ramped up considerably.
        Cheers,
        Dave B

        40

        • #
          jack

          Hi Dave,
          You have 2 valid points there.
          Get the right polys in to save us all.
          And the “most powerful man in the world” mocking their apocalypse now scenario.
          :
          There could be light at the end of the tunnel,
          just hope it’s not an on coming train.

          30

  • #
    rk

    If ever anyone wanted proof that temperature increases are NOT caused by gases in the atmosphere, yesterday at 5.20 PM the temperature at Toowoomba was 29.5 C whilst at exactly the same time at Wellcamp airport it was 36C, both weather stations being only 13 klms apart and the difference in height about 200 metres. The reason was that at Wellcamp there was a westerly wind blowing whilst at Toowoomba it was from the east. Nothing to do with CO2. It is always the pressure patterns ( highs and lows )that govern our weather causing the wind gradients, and it is the type of surface the airmass travels over that determines temperature whether it be over water, forest,desert, or open countryside. And of course those pressure patterns are affected by the solar influence.

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  • #
    Bill in Oz

    The Bureau of Misinformation doe not like peopel going on it’s blog and trying to correct or provide better sources of information.

    All comments have been removed and comments are now not allowed.

    Our great & powerfully deluded BOM !

    http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/2039/201819-was-australias-hottest-summer-on-record-with-a-warm-autumn-likely-too/

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    • #
      Dennis

      My Country

      [snip]

      I love a sunburnt country,
      A land of sweeping plains,
      Of ragged mountain ranges,
      Of droughts and flooding rains.

      [snip its copyright]

      Dorothea Mackeller

      50

    • #
      Serp

      How long did that take? Wasn’t it in a previous thread only last week that someone advised us of the blog?

      00

  • #

    Venezuela is not a socialist country. The standard measures involve the percentage of the economy run by state-owned enterprises or the percentage of the workforce employed by governments or state-owned prises. On these standards Venezuela is similar to Sweden and noticeably less socialist than Norway. It is not even close to China let alone Cuba. Like Norway it is an oil-producing country and like Norway a state-owned company produces nearly all the oil. Venezuela nationalised its oil industry in 1976 long before the leftists began winning elections (1998).

    91

    • #
      Gee aye

      that’s all true but it does not fit with this blog’s narrative.

      511

      • #
        crakar24

        LOL,

        You dont even know what the % standard is or what the current % is, you just blindly believe because it fits snuggly into your conformation bias.

        What a fool you are

        83

        • #
          Gee aye

          thanks craig.

          Venezuela was clearly an attempt to create some sort of socialist or collectivist utopia; it failed in so many ways during the inept implementation of reforms that were ill conceived even if implemented well. It was stupid and arrogant.

          However William is correct, it is not socialist- it never got that far.

          43

          • #
            crakar24

            You think they tried to create a socialist state but were so incompetent they never made it and therefore they are not a socialist state?

            I do not accept Williams position whereby one can determine if a country is socialist or not, the adoptation of socialism is as much a culture shift as much as an economic one. From a cultural perspective Venezuela is a socialist country.

            oh 1….no need to thank me GA my advice comes for free
            oh 2….What was your first name again? ah yes thats right you refused to give it to me.

            Once a fool always a fool.

            61

            • #
              Gee aye

              I actually agree with you on this.

              My point, which William was making using one metric is that it actually doesn’t have the structures in place in order to operate as a socialist state.

              Culturally it had the mindset of being socialist, I think that is changing though and things are much messier than a convenient label can describe.

              52

              • #
                Gee aye

                PS, your name is guessable from craker

                15

              • #
                crakar24

                Not its not, you know my full name, who i work for etc you hid behind your green leaf.

                Stop gobbing off with random thought and then have to back peddle your way out William thinks they are not a socialist state i believe they are and you agree with both of us Huh?

                Do you still stand by this statement?

                that’s all true but it does not fit with this blog’s narrative.

                42

              • #
                Gee aye

                yes. If people don’t like something on this blog they go through the most elaborate contortions to make it fit into their narrative about conspiracies and leftists.

                34

              • #
                AndyG55

                Yes, YOUR contortions are quite RIDICULOUS and CONTRIVED.

                Lies, backflips, baseless innuendo.

                Running around like a mindless chook trying to catch a glimpse of your boyfriend pfutz.

                You will twist ANYTHING in an attempt to get his gratitude.

                Its quite sickening what you have become.

                31

              • #
                AndyG55

                Crakar: “Once a fool always a fool.”

                little geegee: “I actually agree with you on this.

                So do we all, little donkey !!

                31

              • #
                the adorable Gee Ayeeee

                your use of italics and capitalisation are both creative and random

                11

              • #
                AndyG55

                Your use of your brain is totally uncreative and totally random.

                I really have hit the truth this time, haven’t I, little nag.

                I know you like looking in the mirror, but you still don’t seem to see yourself.

                11

              • #
                AndyG55

                italics are quotations, little nag. !

                Your brain has ceased to function. Off to the knackery with you.

                11

    • #
      amortiser

      Venezuela not socialist?

      Why did that crop of intellectuals, unionists and leftists circulate a petition to have Chavez come to Australia to tell us how to run our country? It was the new socialist utopia.

      And we hear it again. They tried to make it socialist but they didn’t do it properly. It’s getting a bit repetitive.

      20

  • #
    Bill Hall

    The videos of power-lines vaporizing because of un-balanced load voltage spikes is a sight to behold as well… :-(
    No matter how much we may be tempted to think it, no one deserves socialism.

    50

  • #
    Another Ian

    Lance/Tony

    “This article says the real reason Venezuela is without electricity is that there was a fire under major transmission lines (due to not maintaining the right of way … gee like PG&E here in The People’s State Of Kalifornia…) and on Youtube was a show highlighting this article that stated that the Engineers who knew how to restart the plant (stay synchronized as load is added) have left the country (seems they wanted to be paid for their work and have food to eat…)

    http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/sociedad/causa-del-apagon-nacional-segun-escuela-ingenieria-ucv_274546

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/03/13/w-o-o-d-13-march-2019/#comment-109565

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    • #
      Lance

      Yes, I’ve read them.

      The CA fires may well have been due to improper maintenance, but as well might be due to idiots shooting the insulators as rifle targets.

      https://www.rtoinsider.com/pge-line-safety-camp-fire-107818/

      Seriously doubt any PGE engineers fled the country. They follow a proscribed protocol for actions and assume the playbook is valid.

      As for me, I don’t know. Having lived 14 yrs in Northern CA, I can say that (1) CA avoided any controlled burns to reduce fuel because of environmentalist legal injunctions (2) CA would not authorize costs to control fuels (3) PGE was left holding the bag.

      I’m not defending PGE. Just saying it was an avoidable situation absent target practice on the insulators, and nobody seems to know what CA will do after PGE files bankruptcy. Sue them out of existence and guess where the power comes from.

      40

  • #
    Bryan Leyland

    Most of the power comes from Guri, a huge hydropower scheme a long way from Caracas. It is connected to the rest of the grid by a 750 kV line. If, as it seems, this line tripped putt, then the generators at the powerstation would go to over speed and trip off. It should not have damaged them but if they were neglected or if the control gear wasn’t working properly, it could happen. They then have to re-energise the line. This requires a very large amount of reactive power (mystery stuff) but no real power. It puts unusual loadings on the generators and it is possible that two or three generators would be needed to re–energise the line. it is possible that they no longer have enough machines still in service. Once the 750 kV line is energised to then they have to energise the other lines bit by bit and very carefully. If you switch on too much load the system might collapse again. A major problem is that there needs to be a power supply at the substation before it can be energised to operate all the auxiliary gear. Usually emergency diesels are provided for the purpose but it would be virtually certain that they were neglected and unreliable. They may also have run out of fuel.

    In this case an additional problem seems to be that one or more major transformers at the main centres have caught on fire. I don’t know what could cause this other than shockingly bad maintenance and control equipment that was not working.

    If, miraculously, a team of engineers was the knowledge and equipment to get it going were on on site, it would still be an enormously difficult job and would take days or weeks to restore all the power.

    I doubt if it is result of sabotage. Why sabotage something that is, anyway, in imminent danger of collapse? But this failure is the last thing that anyone, anywhere, should want.

    100

  • #
    pat

    13 Mar: American Thinker: China’s not-so-generous offer to ‘help’ fix Venezuela’s blackout
    By Monica Showalter
    China just wants the power on so that the oil production can go back up and its loans to Venezuela can get repaid. It also likely sees a new opportunity to extend its influence. Both objectives are premised on holding Venezuela’s Maduro dictatorship in power, which isn’t exactly something that serves Venezuelans’ interests…

    According to Bloomberg columnist Shuli Ren (LINK):
    In the last decade, China made more than $62 billion of loans (LINK) to Venezuela, where hyperinflation prompted the government to devalue the bolivar by 95 percent at the weekend. In July, another $5 billion advance was approved to increase petroleum output there, even though a previous oil-for-loan program backfired (LINK)…READ ON
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/03/chinas_notsogenerous_offer_to_help_fix_venezuelas_blackout.html

    60

  • #
    Ve2

    Welcome to SA 2025 and Victoria 2035.

    60

    • #
      yarpos

      Why? if SA isnt burning now , why will it start. They spent hslf a billion on band aids, so why will the not stagger onward with expensive power? Its a small market so probably manageable even if not sensible.

      10

  • #
    pat

    i’ve heard reports on most FakeNewsMSM that only mention US is not backing Maduro;
    other reports that claim 60-plus countries back Guaido but, given there are around 200 countries in the UN, so what.
    have heard other reports that 50 countries back Maduro (reported by most MSM).

    note: in the Aljaz video: there are 15 Country representatives on stage with the Venezuelan diplomat at the UN in NY supporting Maduro. also note Aljaz heading includes “UN backs Maduro”? simply not true:

    VIDEO: 15 Feb: Aljazeera: Venezuela: 65 countries support Guaido, while UN backs Maduro
    About 50 UN-member countries have pledged their support to Maduro, while 65 countries, including the US, stand behind the opposition leader, Juan Guaido, who has declared himself interim president…
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/venezuela-65-countries-support-guaido-backs-maduro-190215134801090.html

    Venezuela enlists 50 countries at UN to show support
    France 24 (AFP)

    Venezuela’s Top Diplomat Enlists Support From Dozens of Nations to counter U.S.
    New York Times – 14 Feb 2019
    Diplomats said the group totaled about 50 nations…

    note AFP url (and google result above) states “enlists 50 countries” – but headline has been changed:

    15 Feb: AFP: Venezuela at UN enlists countries in show of support
    United Nations (United States) (AFP) – Russia and China joined Cuba, Iran, North Korea and several other countries at the United Nations on Thursday to show support for Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in his showdown with the United States…
    Among those at Arreaza’s side were envoys from Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, North Korea, Syria along with the Palestinian representative and diplomats from Caribbean countries.
    Diplomats said about 50 countries had joined the group in support of Maduro’s government…
    The United States is leading a push to recognize Guaido, backed by about 50 countries including Britain, France, Germany and several Latin American nations such as Brazil, Argentina and Colombia…
    https://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-enlists-50-countries-un-show-support-173729090.html

    you would think it would be easy to list those who support either side. BBC merely confuses the issue:

    5 Feb: BBC: Where do countries stand on Venezuela
    US…
    European Union countries
    Austria, Britain, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Poland, Spain and Sweden all say they recognise Mr Guaidó as interim president…
    Latin American governments
    All of the Lima Group, with the exception of Mexico, have voiced their support for the opposition leader.
    This includes Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Paraguay and Peru…
    Australia, Canada and Israel, have also backed Mr Guaidó’s claim…

    Who backs Maduro?
    Russia
    Last month it flew two nuclear-capable bombers to the region in a show of support for him…
    ◾Why Russia has so much to lose
    The government, along with state owned oil company Rosneft, has handed billions of dollars in loans to Mr Maduro’s government. Reuters has estimated at least £17bn of these have been credited since 2006.
    In recent days, Russian officials have made clear they expect Venezuela to continue its repayments, despite the deepening crisis.
    Part of the collateral Rosneft has over its loans to PDVSA comes in the form of a 49.9% stake in US oil firm Citgo – a potential source of further tension between the US and Russia if it moves to seize those assets…

    China
    Though Russia has invested heavily in the country, China is by far Venezuela’s largest foreign creditor…
    The country is estimated to have supplied more than $62bn in loans since 2007 – a third of which is reportedly outstanding…
    In September last year, President Xi Jinping promised to “provide whatever help it can offer” to the struggling nation – and extended another $5bn credit line…

    Cuba…
    Longstanding socialist allies Nicaragua and Bolivia have voiced direct support for President Maduro…
    Turkey…
    Iran…
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47053701

    closest to listing Maduro backers:

    22 Feb: Newsweek: China Praises Venezuela’s Response to Crisis, Backs Russia Against U.S. ‘Military Intervention’ There
    By Tom O’Connor
    Maduro still has the support of fellow regional socialist allies Bolivia, Cuba, El Salvador and Nicaragua, as well as others abroad, including Belarus, Cambodia, China, Iran, North Korea, the Palestinian National Authority, Turkey, South Africa and Syria.

    Guaidó has been endorsed by the U.S. and most of Latin America, along with the European Union, Albania, Australia, Georgia, Israel and Japan.

    14 Feb: US News & World Report: AP: The Latest: Colombia Leader Urges China to Back Maduro Foes
    China is one of 16 countries that have publicly supported Maduro during the recent resurgence of Venezuela’s political crisis. The United States, Canada, most Latin American nations and many European countries are siding with Guaido…

    HOW PATHETIC IS THE FAKENEWSMSM.

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    • #
      pat

      jo’s Reuters’ link re China offering to help is pure political propaganda, beginning with opening para – Maduro accusing Trump of cyber sabotage – & suggestion China has noted that.
      repeats the same Maduro accusation against Washington in the final para.

      however, in the Reuters’ video (fist minute 45sec), Reuters’ correspondent says Maduro accused Trump WITHOUT EVIDENCE…but China is willing to consider that possibility.

      why WITHOUT EVIDENCE isn’t in the text, who knows?

      speaking of FakeNews:

      11 Mar: American Institute for Economic Research: That Fake Poll on the Green New Deal
      By Phillip W. Magness
      Over 80 percent of American voters support the Green New Deal (GND), or so claim its backers citing a recent survey by a group of academic pollsters. Furthermore, this public endorsement is supposedly bipartisan, with 92 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Republicans indicating that they either strongly or somewhat support the Far Left package to reshape the entire American economy around “green energy” in the course of the next decade.

      A very different story lurks beneath the surface of these impressive-looking statistics. Although the survey was conducted by a team of professors at George Mason University in Virginia and Yale University in Connecticut, it was essentially a “push poll” designed to bias respondents in favor of the proposition.

      The trick behind the outcome may be seen in the question’s wording. Rather than asking voters directly about the GND, the pollsters first presented them with a glowing paragraph-length synopsis (LINK) that touted the proposition’s fantastical claims…

      Loaded opinion polling of this type is a commonly encountered dirty trick in partisan political campaigns, where marketing firms associated with a certain candidate or policy try to build the illusion of public support (or hostility to the opposing party’s candidate) by asking intentionally loaded survey questions and then reporting the results as if they contained an accurate measure of public opinion…

      Unfortunately, the pollsters in this case are not political campaign consultants — they’re university professors at research institutes specializing in “climate change communication.” Given the way that they skewed their poll results toward the GND with biased and loaded questioning, it’s reasonable to ask whether their research output crossed the ethical line separating scholarship from politically motivated advocacy.
      https://www.aier.org/article/fake-poll-green-new-deal

      14 Dec 2018: Yale Climate Change Communication: The Green New Deal has Strong Bipartisan Support
      By Abel Gustafson, Seth Rosenthal, Anthony Leiserowitz, Edward Maibach, John Kotcher, Matthew Ballew and Matthew Goldberg
      In the survey, we showed respondents a brief description of the Green New Deal, which was identical to the first paragraph of this report (above). The description was followed by the question “How much do you support or oppose this idea?”
      The survey results show overwhelming support for the Green New Deal, with 81% of registered voters saying they either “strongly support” (40%) or “somewhat support” (41%) this plan…

      Methods
      These data were produced by the bi-annual Climate Change in the American Mind survey — a nationally-representative analysis of public opinion on climate change in the United States conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication.
      Surveys were conducted using the ***Ipsos KnowledgePanel…
      Funding Sources:
      11th Hour Project, the Endeavor Foundation, the Energy Foundation, the TomKat Foundation, the Grantham Foundation, and the MacArthur Foundation
      http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/the-green-new-deal-has-strong-bipartisan-support/

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  • #
    robert rosicka

    WA Labor Government have told their EPA Green idiot to pull his head in and commonsense prevails .

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-14/epa-scraps-carbon-emssions-guidelines-for-wa-resources-projects/10901574

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  • #
    yarpos

    If only they had implemented Socialism properly, like Bill Shorten is about to.

    30

  • #
    snedly arkus

    There is a lot to hate about socialism but far too many people let it blind them to the real facts. Or, for almost all here a huge lack of facts. First Venezuela’s economy was 70 to 80 % capitalist until the US decided to overthrow the government and put sanctions on them that resulted in the multi nationals that supplied most of the goods cut back or pulled out. Goodyear the most recent with 1000 jobs lost. The sanctions allowed the US to cut off access to the credit markets as no one dares deal with Venezuela and get hit with sanctions. The US has cost the country billions as it stole their assets, won’t allow Citgo to send the money back home, and blocked others. The US has blocked them from getting their gold back that’s stored in London vaults. Now Trump has embargoed their oil to the US and has publicly threatened to go after anyone buying their oil. Venezuela tried crypto and Trump personally threatened to sanction to death anyone willing to use it. The headline for many is Chavez took the richest country in south America and ruined. The Venezuelan economy tracks the price of oil and when Chavez was first elected the country had been on a 20 year slide which turned it into a riot infested country with lots of unrest. Chavez got lucky as oil rebounded but since it tanked so did the economy as it’s history has shown. Trump and Bolton both gloated that after they get regime change in Venezuela the US is going after Nicaragua and Cuba next so as to have the only “free hemisphere’ on the planet. Thanks to sanctions the countries oil production has been declining because they can’t get spare parts. Contrary to one commenter it’s 150 countries that support Maduro. The US fools the world that they are only sanctioning individuals, great PR move, but upon reading those sanctions they are far more ominous and widespread. The “aid” convoy that the US tried to push into the country that was firebombed was not done by the government and videos prove it but Pompeo, Bolton, and a lot of the press won’t admit it. The UN and Red Cross have said the aid is political and not humanitarian. Little Marco Rubio, who get’s his backing from rich Latin Americans, has continually called for overthrow and with the failure of the “aid” convoy has been calling for, and getting plenty of publicity for it, chaos and unrest in Venezuela. In the past Venezuela has had problems with electricity shortages but never blackouts so it’s it’s more than safe to say the US is behind it. The US is a sore loser. Syria is a perfect example. The Russians, Hezbulloh, the Iranians, and the Syrian army took back the country from the bad guys but the US takes the credit. All one needs for proof is look at a current map and the Syrian government is now in control of almost all of their country. Now the US won’t take it’s troops out that are there illegally and has gone on record that they are going to sanction any person or country that helps Syria rebuild. Around 10 years ago thanks to drought and drastic measures imposed by the IMF there was a food shortage in Syria. Assad asked the US for food aid and was refused. Look at Yemen where they really are starving and tens of thousands have been killed the US and the press stay silent as long as Saudi Arabia keeps buying arms. Two people get killed in Venezuela and the US is screaming butchery and human rights abuses while at the same time hundreds are being killed by their respective US backed leaders in Haiti and Sudan.

    The big point here is that any skeptic of AGW knows how much the governments and activists lie about climate change and the truth is hard to find. Yet when someones pet peeve, like those that socialism, is “confirmed” in the media they are all on board and won’t seek out the truth.

    12

  • #
    Dave Ward

    Smart people will pause and reflect upon what is happening, lest it happen elsewhere

    Unfortunately there don’t appear to be any “Smart People” in charge of energy policy in the UK, Germany & Australia…

    30

  • #
    Lucky

    Post #37:
    The multi-nationals pulled out when the regime forced compliance with policies such as government set prices on sales, increased prices on local inputs, and then confiscation. This theft by the government of assets of US companies led to US sanctions, quite understandable and quite right.
    After the misleading/wrong description of those events, the above post goes into fantasy about the US stopping relief columns.
    Then “Little Marco Rubio . .”, hmm, heightism! So, left wing insults about body are ok.

    Electricity shortages, like other shortages, are a symptom of socialism, monopoly creates shortage.
    This time there is widespread failure, those with the skills to run and repair the system have left, they would like to be paid with money that can buy food.
    As for Syria, a vicious oligarchy, Russia, Hez terrorists, and Iran have placed Syria back under the control of mass murderers. In the ousting of IslamicState remember that- the enemy of my enemy is -not- my friend. Iran is the world’s no.1 terror supporting state, this is just one more act to propagate their variety of fundamentalist Islam.

    Starvation in Syria was caused by the Assad dictatorship.
    Yemen. A takeover by Iran has been thwarted by Saudi Arabia who would not like the evil mess that Iran has created in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria in a neighbor.
    etc. etc.

    21

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