JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks


Advertising


Australian Speakers Agency



GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper



Archives

Melbourne, 200,000 houses blacked out, 10 companies curtailed, as 1-in-3-year hot day hits

***UPDATED: Melbourne has been 42C or more around 50 times since 1855. That’s one in three years. Thanks to Bob Fernley-Jones for the correction.

 They were only 250 million watts short:

Loy B Yang, Coal Power Plant

Loy Yang, powering Victoria, and soon probably “taking the blame” too.

Rachel Baxendale, The Australian

h/t Des Moore

More than 200,000 Victorian households had their power cut off yesterday in a bid to protect the state’s energy system from shutting down, as the Andrews government was forced to admit there was not enough power to keep up with soaring demand in sweltering summer heat.

Homes were blacked out, traffic lights across Melbourne were switched off and businesses were forced to close for up to two hours after the Australian Energy Market Operator enforced rolling power outages to make up a 250 megawatt shortfall in supply.

The State Energy Minister (Lily D’Ambrosio) said there would “absolutely” be no blackouts this morning and the rolling blackouts started 90 minutes later. Welcome to the USSAustralia where we hope to make your 150th Birthday Party 0.001 degrees cooler but we can’t predict our electricity grid for the next hour and a half.

Dark ages — get used to it:

Greens leader Richard Di ­Natale blamed an over-reliance on coal for the heatwave and backed Ms D’Ambrosio’s calls for people to stop using their dishwashers and washing machines and to turn up the temperature on their air-conditioners.

Senator Di Natale said Australians experiencing power outages were being unreasonable if they complained about not being able to use home appliances…

That’s right, the man who thinks solar panels will protect your children from storms wants you to “be reasonable”.

We were told renewables would be cheap, would save the world, and power the nation. Now we’re told the lights will go out, we shouldn’t expect to run the dishwasher or air-conditioner at 7pm every day, and burning hundreds of millions of dollars for an afternoons electricity is just “part of the price”.

I have seen your future and your future is load shedding:

Once we were going to lead the world, now we are happy to be failing like everyone else.

Ms Zibelman said load shedding was common practice around the world. “All countries that I’m aware of, and again, I have been in the business for 30 years, and over periods of time you run into these systems like you have, where you have generators that go off and you have to do load shedding,” she said. “We can’t afford … 100 per cent reliability over all hours and all circumstances, but we do like to plan that for what we see these extreme weather events that we have enough reserves available. That’s really what we’re working towards.”

Victoria used to be able to “afford” reliable energy, until they got lots of cheap wind and solar power.

Now business can’t afford to set up in Victoria.

Australia used to be able to maintain coal plants too:

AEMO blamed the failure of two generators at the Yallourn coal-fired power station and ­another at Loy Yang A, all in the Latrobe Valley, for reducing supply by 1800MW.

For forty years Australia had cheaper and more reliable energy than this, and it was powered by what four letter word?

Melbourne has been this hot or hotter about 30 50 times since 1855

It’s being billed as wildly extreme, but Melbourne officially peaked at 42.8C. Bob Fernley-Jones looked back at the long Melbourne Regional Office data going back to 1855, and found around 30 corrected “50″ examples of a day of 42C or more. Days like this are one-in-3-year-event. This is summer in Melbourne. It’s not rare and any half-competent planner would plan accordingly.

As Bob points out the highest spikes in Jan ’39 and Feb 2009 are arguably outliers “resulting from freakish hot northerlies (and the most terrible Victorian bushfires).  If they are waived as outliers, then for the rest of the record from 1855 it’s all pretty dam flat?”

Temperatures above 42C in Melbourne

Temperatures recorded above 42C in Melbourne from 1855 to 2015.  (Regional Office)  Thanks to Bob Fernley-Jones.

Furthermore, this “42.8C” was recorded on an ultra sensitive electronic sensor which means it could well be a “one second record” that is artificially inflated compared to the same day as measured with a mercury thermometer which is slower to respond. The half hour observations in Melbourne peaked at 42.3C. The BOM could tell us exactly how long temperatures “peaked” for. Will they? They could tell us exactly how different the two thermometer types are, but Bill Johnston found they are destroying that data.

Seriously, officer, these two thermometers are exactly the same. Trust me.

Two different thermometers side by side. Photo. Bureau of Meteorology.

An example of different thermometers side-by-side in a Stevenson Screen.. Photo: Bill Johnston.

 How much did it all cost?

Who will add up the electricity bill, the RERT (emergency scheme), the FCAS charges and the compensation payments?

 This [RERT scheme] means paying smelters, factories and other heavy power users to rapidly curtail their energy use to rein in demand, when the system is under strain.

Who will add up the lost wages, the lost opportunities, and the jobs that never came to Victoria?

Whatever the bill, we know who will pay.

Photo Loy Yang: Jo Nova

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.8/10 (101 votes cast)
Melbourne, 200,000 houses blacked out, 10 companies curtailed, as 1-in-3-year hot day hits, 9.8 out of 10 based on 101 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/ycc3fyyl

219 comments to Melbourne, 200,000 houses blacked out, 10 companies curtailed, as 1-in-3-year hot day hits

  • #
    TdeF

    Not only was this not a record for Melbourne, it was not hot for long. As two weeks ago, a warm day and then the trailing edge of a high pressure system, strong Northerlies for half a day and then a cool change and down to the low 20s. At the beach well South, say Anglesea, it was a lovely summer day. Just right.

    I guess news only sells on drama, but this continual exaggeration is incredible. I remember so many hotter years.
    Around 1964, 114F or 45.5 because we had this new fangled American airconditioner. In the 1970s I remember Perth without any airconditioning at all in the stores, but 100F every single day of summer.

    Even ten years ago, 2009 a blistering week in Melbourne ending in 47C (116). It has been much hotter and for longer many times, so the scaremongering is incredible. Twenty years ago, I remember only three days in January under 30C. This January it is as many above 30C. It has even been a relatively cool and mild Australia Tennis Open.

    Melbourne is utterly dependent on wind direction as it is far South of Perth, Adelaide and Sydney. Only one wind is hot and the rest are off the water. In Sydney, only one wind is cool.

    Still the news media push Flannery’s angry summer. Every summer. Plus Greens leader Di Natalie pushing blackouts and financial sacrifice as in WWII to stop bushfires. However the Greens are the National Socialists we fought and how he connects Australia’s bushfires to coal is beyond logic. How the Greens connect warmer oceans around the Great Barrier Reef is a complete mystery.

    So if they stop the Adani mine, the world will be saved? Why are the Greens so irrational, or is that a rhetorical question?

    711

    • #
      TdeF

      I also remember six weeks in Fort Collins Colorado without relief. Every day at 98F and every night at 102F. 95% humidity too. The airconditioner exchangers froze solid, one after the other. Another high altitude desert area, so huge range of temperatures from -40C/-40F to 40C/104F. Why would anyone think a change of 1C would matter in the slightest?

      381

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Yes and may I add the hype is 100% b&^^$%#t!, I and thousands of other Australians were outside working on these so called unprecedented conditions and yet here I am making evil ant-government comments on what I consider the best Australian news site with the best Australian writer hosting it.

      Also my heartfelt sympathies go out to all Victorians that did not vote for more communism and its wantingly destructive leader but have to suffer the political apathy of the majority, you are not alone and we must make a change while the processes are still in place for once they’re gone getting them back will be bloody and brutal.

      411

    • #
      Geoff

      Its the MSM that is irrational. Our media made people, the politicians and business manipulators, are using the media outcry to line their pockets by making everyone feel guilty about “destroying” our planet. The planet is now a victim.

      I urge everyone to pick up a rock and cuddle it. That rock has “feelings”. It cries virtual tears. We have reached the point when that rock’s feelings are more imporant than reliable electricity and our economy.

      Love your rock. It may one day care about you too. No-one else will.

      170

      • #
        Alice Thermopolis

        “I urge everyone to pick up a rock and cuddle it.”

        Tim Flannery did. There’s a jolly photo of him with his rock in “Here on Earth – an Argument for Hope”, just below one of James Lovelock in his garden, with a statue a Gaia behind him.

        The caption reads: “This 3.8 billion-year-old rock preserves evidence of the beginning of Earth’s carbon cycle, and thus life on Earth. Holding it gave me a personal connection with with life’s origin.”

        Expect he will be carrying it around in his new role as an Australian Museum Visiting Fellow.

        “Professor Flannery’s appointment is part of the museum’s three-year strategy of taking a leadership role supporting climate action.

        Ms McKay said the museum has a unique opportunity to educate people about climate change, because of the high levels of public trust the institution enjoys.

        “Museums are the perfect outlet to talk about the impacts of climate change, and adaptation strategies as well.”

        Professor Flannery said he is relishing the prospect of getting into NSW schools to inspire the next generation.

        “I find that a lot of young people are quite despairing about climate change. They feel powerless. [But] there are huge opportunities. There still is a great chance to make a difference.”

        Flannery’s position is being funded by “private donors”. the Museum – a public institution – has not revealed them, at least to my knowledge. Surely not because it has something to do with a Federal/State election early this year?

        So go to it, folks. Flushing out their identities would be very revealing.

        130

        • #
          Bushkid

          Well, that’s just put me off museums now.

          Don’t let Flannery anywhere near schools, those poor kids have already been brainwashed and terrified more than enough.

          I have a young cousin who I was very afraid was going to take his own life, because he’d been fed the bull dust about the planet being going to burn up. He was convinced that was the literal truth, that the Earth was going to burst into flames, and everyone was going to burn to death. Naturally, he was scared as heck, and didn’t want to burn to death, nor see his brother and sister or mum and dad do so. I was able to convince him to the contrary, fortunately. He’s grown into a far happier early-teen, thank goodness, but it was a very frightening time for the adults in his life. The CAGW ghouls have a great deal to answer for.

          70

          • #
            Kinky Keith

            Reminds of the family in Mexico that actually checked out a few years ago because it had worried them so much.

            The alarmists have a lot to answer for.

            20

    • #
      Ian George

      Melbourne, Jan 1908.
      Longest consecutive run of +40C. Could the system have coped if they had that today?
      16th – 20th Jan
      42.8C, 44.2C, 40.0C, 41.1C, 42.7C.

      BTW, 15th Jan 1908 was 39.9C.

      70

    • #
      Graeme#4

      Also remember that very hot spell in the early 1970s in Perth. Was in the high 30s and over for a good three weeks. Lots of houses, were like furnaces inside. Was still very hot right through into May that year. Many cyclones up north, driving the cool changes further south down past the lower SW, so we missed out them coming through.

      00

  • #
    NB

    At great sacrifice we managed to keep Richard DiNatale from practicing medicine.

    541

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Load shedding — load shmedding. Even I, not even very close to being an engineer, much less a power engineer and not even living in Australia can tell your experts the solution — build a couple of additional conventional generating plants and be done with the problem for a while.

    But they have carbon emissions shoved so far down their throats that they can’t see the truth. I bet a few of you thought I was going to say something else, didn’t you?

    I guess I’m the child who dared to point out that the Emperor’s new clothes didn’t exist. But it’s too obvious not to speak out. If they would rather sell the coal to China don’t they have what it takes to realize that it’s going to be burned there?

    This whole thing is so dishonest I can smell it from here.

    560

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      The bureaucrat’s creed says, “If you have a rule you can follow then follow it. That way your job is safe.”

      250

    • #
      Bobl

      Hope you are feeling better Roy, I’m still considering a move to trumps America and away from the communist insanity gripping the country here. Mind you your Congress can’t give the President $6bn now so that in 3 years time he can save the USA $50bn in illicit drug management and illegal immigration welfare costs. It seems political stupidity isn’t confined to the southern hemisphere.

      311

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Improving every day and yet problems keep hounding me. Getting older isn’t for the faint of heart.

        Political stupidity seems to be everywhere. But we’ll roll out the red carpet for those like you who have useful knowledge if Trump gets his way.

        20

  • #
    aussiepete

    It is infuriatingly simple, we have spent billions upon billions of dollars on windmills and when they were needed they could only muster 4% of our needs.
    All i can say to the people who talk about going to 50% or more is “I think the heat has got to ya mate”.
    Happy Australia Day to everyone, especially Jo who deserves one of the medals they’re handing out today.

    531

  • #
    C. Paul Barreira

    All doubts dispelled. We have joined the largely defunct second world. The old Soviet states would be impressed with this achievement, perhaps even offering awards to Di Natalie, Zilbererman and D’Ambrosio. Yet even they would find Australian approaches to energy generation stupefying.

    By the way, did any journalist, typically purveyors of fake news, enquire after the failures at Yallourn and Loy Yang? Or ask Zilberman to prove her assertion that “load shedding was common practice around the world”.

    it may be, but under what circumstances? And were those circumstances comparable with the situation that prevailed before the green ideology of reducing living standards became government policy?

    In true Soviet style the leaders continue to mislead the public. What remains amazing is that the public seems unaware of the depth of the elite’s delusions.

    431

    • #
      Sambar

      Did a bit of work in the Phillipines in the ’80′s. Load shedding every afternoon on a rolling roster of big usere so that the “little people’ wouldn’t be blacked out. At least every industry knew when their business had to slow down, so nothing random. The glass manufacturing company I was working with had huge generators that kicked in when needed. These gennies were big enough to push power back into the local grid , thus assisting the government keep the lights on.
      It’s my understanding that this no longer occurs in Manila

      270

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        It did not happen in Manilla during the 6 months In was there in 2016.

        The Philippines is building 17 coal fired power stations to meet the demand from 110 million people to live a normal life. Coal is barged in from Kalimantan in Indonesia.

        They have lots of atmospheric pollution but CO2 is not an issue in the Philippines.

        Sensible people !

        190

    • #
      yarpos

      Among government departments and agencies, the politcians and the AEMO, the lack of competence in management and the lack of the most basic technical understanding by the people doing all the talking, is breathtaking.

      Imagine for a minute if we had a John Monash in charge.

      240

      • #
        Sambar

        Sir John Monash had quite an impact in our local area Yarpos, heavilly involved in the Rubicon hydro scheme and built a couple of bridges as well. We need to rub him from history, after all he was just an old, white, qualified, experienced brilliant man. Never mention his name again.
        Note the Rubicon hydro scheme is still producing electricty 90 years or so after completion, all remote and automated, not to many upgrades over the years either.
        Imagine what could be achieved if this whole system was reworked with modern engineering techneques.

        211

    • #
      C. Paul Barreira

      I guess these people—Di Natalie, Zibelman and D’Ambrosio—would exult in the following report if it related to Australia (from Asia Times):

      “Damascus back to ‘stone age’ as services stretched
      “Syrian authorities can’t keep the lights on in the capital, threatening investment and risking a new brain drain

      “Nearly one year after the guns went silent in the suburbs of Ghouta surrounding the Syrian capital, basic services are lagging far behind their wartime performance and people are spending the winter in darkness and cold.

      “Prolonged electricity cuts are back and people complain that cooking gas, heating fuel and powdered milk for infants has vanished from the Syrian market. . . .”

      What more could they want?

      70

      • #
        yarpos

        “The State Energy Minister (Lily D’Ambrosio) said there would “absolutely” be no blackouts this morning and the rolling blackouts started 90 minutes later.”

        Sounds like the interview with the Iraqi Information Minister saying the Americans are not in Bagdhad as a US tank rolls through the shot behind him. Exit stage left Minister.

        50

      • #
        Alfred (Cairns)

        Let’s not forget that Syria was being attacked by air, land and sea from several of its surrounding countries – Israel, Turkey, Jordan – plus the Jihadis financed, equipped and trained by the allies of these politicos in Canberra such as Saudi Arabia, the UK, France, USA, Qatar and the UAE.

        Right now, the Americans are refusing to budge – because they are protecting the last stronghold of ISIS – and the Turks are threatening to occupy the area traditionally Kurdish. The good news is that the leadership of ISIS is being moved to Afghanistan by the USAF and hopefull the Taliban will sort them out. :)

        I wonder how the infrastructure and services of Australia would cope with such an assault.

        21

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    250 Mega Watts isn’t much for a boiler or two a couple of generators with turbines and cooling tower and doesn’t pollute the landscape nearly as much as manufacturing the magnets for all those windmills.

    And yet I’m being called the denier.

    You throw in the transformers and transmission lines and all of it is a one time cost with a lifetime measured in decades and compare that with the cost of load shedding much of which people suffer in silence and the decision makes itself and you can dump all the windmills into the Marianas Trench.

    290

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      TonyfromOz can tell you I’m basically right, even if some detail is wrong.

      200

    • #
      Bobl

      Doesn’t need Tony, I’m an electrical engineer and I can tell you that you are quite right, except that the 250MW could be covered simply by upgrading one or two units to supercritical operation, so the transmission lines are probably not needed.

      180

      • #
        toorightmate

        Bobl,
        Here in Australia we have a new electrical unit to add to watts, joules, volts, amperes, ohms, etc.
        It is called the “Hazelwood”.
        Victoria was one “Hazelwood” short yesterday.

        370

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        And now I should ask you exactly what is “super critical operation” so I learn something while I have the chance.

        30

        • #
          Bobl

          If I recall the critical temperature is the temperature at which steam is no longer wet (pure gas phase) so super critical is temperature greater than that. The energy out of the steam is related to the pressure, so using the gas law P=nET/V the higher temperature (and much tighter turbine geometry) gives greater pressure and a higher turbine efficiency. Up to 45%.

          30

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Thanks for the answer and let me see if I understand. When a steam locomotive routs steam from the boiler into tubes that run back and forth through the boiler’s exhaust tubes to further heat it before routing it to the calendars, it’s super critical?

            Steam locomotives were doing that since the 19th century and I didn’t know what to call it…at least if you say I’m right.

            10

  • #
    Lance

    There are a few lessons here.

    1. AU has hired and appointed a Lawyer with a Bachelor of Arts degree to oversee its national grid.
    “Ms. Zibelman earned her Juris Doctor degree from Hamline University Law School. She received her Bachelor of Arts degree from the Pennsylvania State University.”

    2. Reliability is a Product Function.

    Capacity Factor x Capacity x Availability Factor

    Wind CF = 0.30 Wind AF = 0.95

    Thermal CF = 0.95 Thermal AF = 0.95

    Solar CF 0.20 Solar AF = 0.95

    Wind Reliability = 0.285
    Thermal Reliability = 0.9125
    Solar Reliability = 0.19

    If AU has 40% “renewable energy generation” and it is evenly divided, then AU can “rely” upon only 9.5% of grid capacity to actually exist at any given time.

    If AU has 60% thermal generation, then 55% of the grid capacity is “reliable”.

    Thus the AU grid has an aggregate reliable capacity of 65%.

    This is why the rolling blackouts and load shedding occur. It is not mystical. The predictable load cannot be met by generation that has low reliability. One may play games ad infinitum as regards interconnectors, thermal units offline, etc., but the bottom line is low reliability generation is a fatal handicap. If the wind isn’t blowing, and it is near sunset, then the AU grid has a reliable capacity of 55% total grid generation. Unless there is 45% additional generation capacity in the form of CCGT , OCGT, Diesel IC, etc , peaking units available, then the grid is facing load shedding or blackout conditions.

    Why is this a mystery to Ms Zibelman? She purports to have a vast experience in power systems.
    Maybe her JD and BA coursework didn’t include basic reliability calculations. She does, however, seem shamelessly able to compare a 1st world grid to a 3rd world grid by claiming in both cases that load shedding in the case of insufficient generation “is normal”. The difference is the 3rd world grids never had adequate generation and AU is ignoring its self inflicted wounds.

    460

    • #
      Dennis

      23rd January, 2017 – PM Turnbull appoints Audrey Zibelman to be the CEO of the Australian Energy Markey Operator (AEMO).

      She is an American from the Democratic Party (the left-wing party in the U.S.) who worked for the leftist New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, and was a candidate to become US energy secretary had Hillary Clinton won last year’s presidential elections.

      290

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      Thanks Lance,
      But I think you maybe over estimated the Availability Factor for solar. I think your 0.95 applies for reasonable daylight hours only, so for a 24 hour estimate it should have another factor of, say, 6/24, or 0.25 applied.
      This doesn’t affect the main thrust of your calc.
      Cheers,
      Dave B

      120

      • #
        Lance

        Agreed. Intent was to show the process of calculating reliability as a product of factors. 0.95 as a factor is simply a placeholder for availability. Moreover, the definition of availability ought be defined more clearly.

        Wind turbines are “available” even if the wind isn’t blowing. Solar panels are available at night.

        Functional Availability is different. Functional availability means “available at a given time AND fully functional for the purpose intended”.

        Thermal plants that are “Hot, Ready and Able” are 100% Functionally Available.
        Let’s say there is a 5% chance of being down for repairs, a 5% chance of having to run below full output so as not to overheat the windings in the alternator. Then the “Total Functional Availability” is 0.95 x0.95 = 0.9025

        Solar plants are only functionally available for 8 to 10 hours each day. Call it 9 hours. Let’s say that dust reduces output by 3%, there’s a 5% chance that any of the panels are broken, and the inverter has a 94% efficiency, so: The “Functional Availability” is .97 x .95 x .96 x 9/24 = .318 .At Night, the “functional availability” is 0 because it is dark.

        The point is to get people to think about “Functional Availability Factor” and the components that comprise it.

        Thank you for your kind observation and thoughtful points.

        There are a plethora of factors, and rarely are they disclosed. I should rather people “think” about this rather than accept things blindly.

        80

        • #
          Bushkid

          Thank you Lance, a very good illustration of the situation.

          Frankly, it beggars belief that our esteemed and very highly paid bureaucrats, politicians and whoever is “advising” them are unable to grasp this very simple notion.

          The calculations were new to me personally, but the principle has always been blindingly obvious, and I’m no Einstein.

          How on Earth do the entire national and state bureaucracies and governments not understand this if I can?

          They all have to be either total numpties who can’t tie their own shoe laces, or they know full well what they are doing, and the consequences.

          10

    • #
      Bobl

      Um… no.

      While you are technically correct your calculations of reliability only apply to random, failures. They don’t apply where there is a common Failure mode between many redundant units (like the sun going down, wind dropping , or loss of fuel supply (say a coal miners strike)

      CF is an annualised average while grid response is minute to minute, for example reliability of solar 7PM to 5 AM is zero. Same with wind, the wind dropping dumps multiple units in a synchronised fashion so failure is not random. Reliability of solar is therefore below 3% and wind is below 1% even backed with 12 hours of storage.

      101

    • #
      George

      2. Reliability is a Product Function.

      Capacity Factor x Capacity x Availability Factor

      Just wondering is it normal to multiply capacity factor by Availability factor ?

      The way I read Capacity factor is that is includes downtime in its calculation.

      Capacity factor
      The net capacity factor is the unitless ratio of an actual electrical energy output over a given period of time to the maximum possible electrical energy output over that period

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor

      Availability factor
      The availability factor of a power plant is the amount of time that it is able to produce electricity over a certain period, divided by the amount of the time in the period.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_factor

      00

    • #
      George

      Lance I agree totally that reliability is a huge problem with renewables,
      but not sure that Capacity factor is directly related to that.
      And not sure where you got the 0.95 CF for thermal.

      US capacity factors 2017
      Coal 53.5%
      Wind 36.7%
      SolarPV 27.0%

      UK capacity factors 2015
      Coal 39.1%
      Wind 33.7%
      SolarPV 11.8%

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor#Capacity_factors_by_energy_source

      00

      • #
        Chris Morris

        George
        The capacity factors of coal units is right down because they are two shifted or part loaded in the night. They are often shut down at weekends as well. Whereas solar and wind generally aren’t dispatched off, so that as good as they get. Long term capacity factor of base loaded coal plant is about 80%.

        If Lance is talking about dispatchable power (on nameplate rating) for a 24/7 basis, the wind and solar would be well under 10%

        40

        • #
          George

          OK thanks I have no doubt a coal plant would be CF 80% when base loaded.
          That’s a big part of the problem – before renewables, a coal plant could run continuously and all the power would be valued, but now wind and solar produce intermittent surges and at those times coal plant power is not valued.

          30

        • #
          Lance

          George and Chris:

          Point was meant to be that reliability is a product function of the underlying factors. A hot, ready, fueled, coal plant has a functional capacity factor of some 90% at baseload for a single dispatchable unit. The only way to get that down to 53% is to prevent the plant from operating at capacity. That implies an artificial inhibition of production. That inhibition is another factor. For a 2 unit plant with one unit offline for maintenance, it would be 0.5 x .9 = .45 total reliablse functional availability.

          Wind and solar are given political preference by requiring baseload thermal plants to follow them instead of requiring the wind and solar to bid contracted power into a grid without preference on a 24 hour basis, with non-performance penalties. This isn’t how it works in AU or UK.

          I’m not ignorant of how this works. My wife says I either leave things through simplification out or I go “too very granular” and bore people. It is difficult to strike a bulletproof middle ground. The point is that the playing field is not level, the definitions of capacity and availability are not well defined, the concept of grid reliability is left out of most discussions, and there ought be a “political bovine feces interference factor”. For Solar and Wind, the PBFIF is 70%, at least.

          30

        • #
          George

          This distribution chart shows a fair number of coal plants were running at 90-100% Capacity Factor
          and more at 80-90%, though the distribution was wide and the average was 67%.

          https://cdn.powermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/gas-coal-cfs.jpg?_ga=2.7118199.433515800.1548470420-98162454.1548470417

          bottom chart 2005

          10

        • #
          George

          Victoria’s coal fired plants had a CF of 88% in 2006, the highest in Australia.
          Still highest CF in 2017 at 83%.

          https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/capacity-factors-understanding-the-misunderstood/

          10

    • #
      RickWill

      The guaranteed output of a wind generator or a whole heap of wind generators is easy to calculate because it is ZERO. On Friday, when needed most, the 5661MW of installed wind generators in Australia managed 1231MW. 80% of capacity was MIA.

      The fact that wind managed anything above zero was a fluke. It could have been less or more but there are no guarantees. The difference between third world and first world is certainty of outcome. Australia’s east coast power supply is now third world where you have to expect rolling outages. That is the standard Audrey Zibelman has set for the grid she operates.

      90

    • #
      Graeme#4

      Think your first formula is wrong Lance. Shouldn’t it be: Reliability = CF x AF? That’s what gives you 0.285.

      10

  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    Individual misery was an important part of their plan. Their plan is working. After all, what works is determined by the ultimate purpose of the action. If there is repeated failure along with continuing to do more of the same, failure was the purpose from the get go.

    You are a fool to believe they have your best interests at heart. They don’t even have their own best interests at heart. Why then do you expect to get anything other than “the short end of the stick”?

    220

  • #
    Chris Morris

    It was predicted long before the event that the grid would fail at times of high load. It was openly discussed at Generation conferences I went to. The old coal fired stations have been forced to load follow because of renewables having priority even though they are designed to base load. The maintenance has been cut back because the stations don’t generate the income to sustain them. The State government has been making very loud noises about wanting to shut them down very soon, so there is no certainty of investment. Hazelwood had 8 200MW units. If say three were generating, they would not have all failed together. The Greens and the Minister do not know what they are talking about.
    The State government, and to a lesser extent, the Federal one is responsible for the power cuts. This is the future, get used to it.

    390

  • #
    beowulf

    For some staggering figures on just what the power cost was to VIC and SA relative to the other states on 24/1/19 go here (no figures for 25/1/19 yet):

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2019/01/25/david-bidstrup-a-year-has-passed-and-nothing-has-changed-in-fact-it-is-worse/#comments

    Cost for the full day’s power by state:

    QLD — $18,310,622
    NSW — $23,117,175
    SA — $233,910,822
    VIC — $706,112,744

    See the full table for figures $/MWh etc.

    As commenter Bruce of Newcastle says: “Three days and you could buy a HELE plant with the money wasted.”

    351

  • #
    Mark M

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten today supported his (Di Natale) remarks, asking ‘how hot does it have to become in Australia before the Coalition government starts to do something about [global warming]?’”

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5993612059001

    Meh: How many solar panels must Bill build before Bill prevents his first summer heat-wave??

    210

    • #
      AndyG55

      KK’s post from the other day highlighted the idiocy of both major parties.

      Here’s a small sample of how many coal plants there are in the world today.

      The EU has 468 plants building 27 more for a total of 495

      Turkey has 56 plants building 93 more total 149

      South Africa has 79 building 24 more total 103

      India has 589 building 446 more total 1036

      Philippines has 19 building 60 more total 79

      South Korea has 58 building 26 more total 84

      Japan has 90 building 45 more total 135

      AND CHINA has 2363 building 1171 more total 3534

      This is just the main countries, and may not be an exhaustive count even in those countries..

      And AUSTRALIA is planning to shut down their remaining 6 plants to save the planet !! DOH !!

      Go Australia !!!!

      401

      • #
        beowulf

        Following yesterday’s power-shedding debacle in VIC it might be time to re-scrutinise AGL’s replacements for the generating capacity to be slashed from Liddell. They are a complete insult to the intelligence of everyone but a Green, a politician or an AEMO boss:

        • they will shut down roughly 2,000MW of reliable generation at Liddell (given that it can’t reach 100% CF these days)
        • upgrade Bayswater next door by 100MW
        • build a new 252-megawatt gas-fired plant near Newcastle consisting of fourteen X 18MW turbines
        • build 210MW of new gas-fired generation in far off South Australia which will do NSW a fat lot of good
        • build 653MW of new erratic wind farms in Queensland and NSW (no timeframe is given for when any of that will happen . . . plus more interconnectors required???)
        • buy 800,000 MWh of solar energy per annum for 15 years from Maoneng which will have 300MW of solar plants in NSW only (the main 200MW Sunraysia plant is still in planning)

        According to Andy Vesey before he scurried off, AGL would continue to “assess the potential” to develop a further 500MW of gas-fired generation capacity as part of Stage 2 of the plan, but is yet to commit to anything further to replace lost generation when Liddell closes.

        As at 2022 by my calculation that still leaves NSW short of a commitment from AGL for about 1,648MW of dispatchable power generation compared to now, and this with population growth surging all the time.

        On Friday 25/1/19, NSW was drawing 1GW to 1.5GW from other states for much of the day and the highest I observed was 1,947MW at 7.40pm. NSW wind peaked at 433MW (28.8% CF) at 10am and declined steeply thereafter, bottoming out at 107MW (7% CF) at 6.20pm when most needed. The coal plants were screaming all day long; the gas peakers cut in from 11am to 9pm. NSW is regularly short about 1GW of cheap baseload now; before you know it we’ll be short 2.5GW.

        At 3.15pm EST, VIC power demand was 8,499MW and generation was 6,966MW — a shortfall of 1,533MW or as some like to call it — 1 Hazelwood of power. Let’s not forget it was AEMO’s Zibelman who wanted Hazelwood shut because it was “inefficient”, pinning our future instead on wind, micro-grids and especially . . . demand management for “efficiency”. Victoria’s grid must be oh so efficient now.

        No prizes for guessing what will happen to NSW and VIC the first summer after Liddell shuts down. We’ll be the laughing stock of the developed world again.

        290

    • #
      Yonniestone

      ‘How many solar panels must Bill build before Bill prevents his first summer heat-wave??’

      70

      • #
        Yonniestone

        Sorry now the answer, he won’t build any just import them from China a country that buys coal from us and is going gang busters on mining and burning it themselves.

        The only thing Bill ever built is a nice political position from knifing his own party members all on the public dime!

        Disgusting little ferret of a man.

        180

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Yonnie the answer my friend is blowing in the wind !

        60

    • #
      JB

      Maybe Bill Shortens’ catchcry for the next election could be “There will be no reliable electricity under any government that I lead.”

      90

      • #

        That’s a perfect message to fight them with IF their political opposition wasn’t on the same stupid page of weakening a western democracy and history of can do, from stump jump plough to Snowy Mountain Scheme. Pioneer spirit, tsk, that’s ol’ white male stuff, campaign achieving historical vote for women, down the memory whole with it all!

        70

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    Whether in a home or a market, the freezer has to work or the ice cream melts. When ice cream softens there is just one good solution. It has to be eaten.
    Sort of the opposite of load shedding.

    170

  • #

    The trick has been to cripple coal then blame the cripple for being uneconomic.

    Globalists will always come up with a money or “market” argument against coal because, in their eyes, money can always be borrowed or pilfered and “market” is just another abstraction to rig in favour of dogma. They don’t get “market” and don’t want to get it. On a recent thread we had a particularly sly commenter implying that shut-downs did not matter because compensation in the form of a “buck” came from somewhere and a “buck” is what business is for. You greedy things.

    The market will decide! Big business is on board! That’s all code for: Under globalism it’s going to be a lot easier to borrow and plunder than to profit and produce. Better get real, as Carmen Lawrence once said.

    So much for their methods.

    As for motive, that’s not so clear. If they were concerned about coal consumption they would attack Australian coal exports before they attacked domestic consumption. They would insist on modernising our coal infrastructure since it is clear that we will be depending on it indefinitely. But they don’t do that. It can’t just be about the carpetbagging, though there has been plenty of plunder. Obviously Big Oil has had a hand in the War on Coal, even funding it directly through Sierra Club till someone squawked.

    No. I think it’s fair to say that these people want the energy poverty and the social erosion. Why? One word covers it for me: malevolence.

    Your’e being hated. That’s it.

    252

    • #
      PeterS

      Yes I have to agree that malevolence is the cause of many of our problems. However, people have to take responsibility for their choices and actions. Pleasing ignorance is not an excuse. Most of us here have carried out the responsible task of doing our own research to discover the truth about the CAGW scam and hoax. Imagine what could happen if everyone in Australia did it. We might be building not only many coal fired power stations by now we might be seriously considering building nuclear ones too. Well that’s assuming we are all sensible, logical and honest. Of course that’s not the case because many are as you would say are malevolent. In reality the only way to avoid being stuck in circular reasoning and to resolve this dilemma is to let time takes its course and we as a nation will have to suffer and learn the hard way. So it looks like we need Shorten to be our PM to get things moving in that direction one day. I wish there was a better.

      130

  • #
    yarpos

    Two snippets from what their ABC chose to run:

    AEMO Audrey saying we cant afford to have 24×7 power to support all conditions. Auds you are obviously new here because we could 10, 20,30,40 years ago. Whats changed do you think?

    Some random bloke on the beach ” its to be expected, its only going to get hotter and hotter” he says when its only the hottest day for 5 years.

    Finally in Fairfax Audrey again saying how they got surprised by the conditions (surprised by summer?) and how when they spent money last year reserving power they got criticism. Audrey, YOU HAVE ONE JOB, to deliver power to the east coast. If you cant do that because you are afraid of criticism or are surprised that seasons happen JUST RESIGN!

    330

  • #
    PeterS

    Building a couple of extra coal fired power stations of course is the most logical and sensible solution especially given hundreds of them are being built in many other nations. The impact on the climate if any would be negligible even if CAGW were true, which of course it’s not. So IMHO anyone who is against such a solution is an enemy of this nation and should be treated accordingly given reliable and sustainable power has to be a national security issue.

    231

  • #
    pattoh

    The Stevenson Screen pic does not do justice to the support.

    All the boxes I have seen over the last few years are supported by single ~~ 65 mm steel posts painted with “cold gal.

    Note that on those hot still days; early in the morning & later in the afternoon, these would act as thermal collectors.

    Heat would be collected by direct incidence of sunlight & conducted along the length [ & obviously upwards into the shaded length as the day progresses.

    & don’t forget guys: Dan the Man got the votes to do this to you!

    Thereby these posts would act as a heating source to the adjacent air &, by convective action, supply warm air rising to the center of the box floor.

    The warmer air would then traverse outwards & ultimately rise past the down facing external louvres on the outside of the box. Some of this warmed air would very likely enter the enclosure.

    It is easy to imagine that on still, hot days this “collector + re-radiator mechanism” would not, after sunrise, result in earlier warmer recordings &, when approaching sunset, result in later warmer temps as the stored heat conducts & convects out. Hey, the data set needs all the help it can get!

    I understand that there was a long debate when acrylic paint replaced lime wash as the timber coating as to whether it would affect records.

    You would have to wonder if the steel posts were subject to any testing.

    292

    • #

      pattoh
      A very good description of one of a multitude of Stevenson design problems.
      Well done. Thumbs up from me but its far far worse than that.
      One really big fail associated with your hot pole issue and also hidden as you say by the pic not doing justice to the support, are the probe cables. We all know copper is a really good conductor. Well copper cables are running up that pole then inside the screen.
      Also the idea of the Double louvered screen is to stop the sun and reflections of the sun from getting inside the box. The floor has two levels. These are three East West slats. If you look closely you can see the ground between them.
      This photo shows the light bouncing off the metal screen and ground below into the box from between the slats. Imagine snow, white sand or a puddle
      https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Interior_of_a_stevenson_screen_at_the_Darwin_Met_Office.jpg
      I have sent a huge amount of info about this and other problems to Jo already.
      Just hope she may get around to putting some of it up as a post.

      171

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Pattoh last year I discovered two Stevenson screens that were poorly positioned and currently active, I gave details to others through Jo if you or Siliggy want to follow up.

      80

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Country stunned by seasonably hot weather. /sarc off

    124

    • #
      el gordo

      Aunty said its the hottest summer in south east Australia since the beginning of the world and its all because of the sins of humanity. Repent!

      170

      • #
        RickWill

        But only if you disregard the 1939 reading that was taken in a Glaisher screen.

        It may be appropriate to disregard it as Glaisher screens have been shown to give higher readings when in sunlight. On the other hand we know thermocouples have a faster response than LiG thermometers, making present day readings higher than LiG readings.

        Using anything but whole numbers in a temperature reading implies an accuracy that is unachievable for measuring and comparing air temperature.

        112

        • #
          el gordo

          This should all come out in a Royal Commission and presumably Bill Johnston will be there to explain it. The corruption of raw data is a very serious matter.

          110

        • #

          RickWill
          “On the other hand we know thermocouples have a faster response than LiG thermometers, making present day readings higher than LiG readings.”
          The BoM do not use thermocouples.

          They use platinum resistance thermometers that they claim to have matched to the mercury thermometers response time.
          The WMO has tested their new Stevenson screen and found it to have a very fast response time. Look at the box not the thermometer is what i am saying. Also look at where the thermometer is in the box.

          20

  • #
    DaveR

    Just so there is no confusion – amongst other roles, the BOM is charged with collecting and recording Australia’s temperature data as a prime responsibility.

    That task requires that the actual temperature data be read from each of the 500+ AWS (Automatic Weather Station) around the country. Prior to the introduction of the AWS network, the same task was required for the mercury thermometer stations.

    We know that the measured data is then subjected to various calculations, adjustments, averaging, etc etc and recorded by BOM.

    But if the original measured data is destroyed, and only the adjusted data retained, then that is an offence under the Meteorology Act 1955 (Cwth) and the Public Service Act 1999 (Cwth).

    211

    • #
      Graeme#4

      I thought we looked at the issue of keeping records some time ago Dave. From the documents supplied at the time, it seemed to me that public service organisations Could discard data after a small number of years.

      00

  • #
    Rob

    Wiser people knew his fiasco was coming at us. They were ignored, ridiculed even.
    The massive South Australian blackout should have resulted in every member of SA’s Labor government being booted out of office yet the SA vote scarcely moved.
    Lambs to the slaughter?
    We are in trouble yet Zilbeman’s “reward for effort” will keep growing.
    Describing this as lambs to the slaughter doesn’t even come close.

    200

  • #
    toorightmate

    The ABC News website currently has an article purporting to explain the power outage in Victoria.
    The article is pure, unadulterated CRAP.
    The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.

    161

    • #
      robert rosicka

      That’s this bit of fictional comedy , https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-26/victorian-blackouts-what-caused-them-and-is-this-the-new-normal/10751412

      They really are going all out to blame coal , even discounting the affect Hazelwood closing had on the system .

      Tell a lie often enough and you will be believed .

      And it’s not going to get any better as Victoriastan grows more electricity will be needed and blackouts will become the norm .

      A sustained campaign of misinformation and propaganda by those in charge and the MSM could just sway the sheeple into believing that the answer is more wind and solar but put up with blackouts .

      150

    • #
      Mark M

      “At the same time, three electricity generation units at coal-fired power plants in the Latrobe Valley were out of action (two due to unexpected outages, one due to planned maintenance) which reduced the amount of available power.

      To make matters worse, the hot weather reduced the efficiency of the coal-fired power stations that remained online, further reducing the available supply of electricity.”

      So emissions/output were reduced, but the heat was worse. Ever?

      130

  • #
    Salome

    Apparently the outages were caused by selfish people using their dishwashers. In the middle of a business day?

    140

  • #
    David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

    Where is Andrews?
    Cheers, Dave B

    80

  • #
    Salome

    Serious question: what is the significance of the two rows of numerals under the dates on the ‘days over 42′ graph?

    30

    • #
      Bob Fernley-Jones

      The graph, is of BoM data plotted in Microsoft Excel and spans over 58,000 days since 1855. It consequently lacks some definition in detail. The bottom row of numbers are for months and the middle row attempts to show days of the month but the poor old Excel software can’t sort the 58,000 points. It was only intended as a quick reference for Joanne. There are actually 43 days at over 42.3 degrees when sorted into a table (that I’m unable to format here), but on the graph some of them overlap and are not visible.

      60

  • #
    Peter C

    Australia Day picnic with Australian Conservatives today.

    110

  • #
    Carbon500

    Meanwhile, here in the UK, Nottingham is poised to become a ‘carbon neutral’ city.
    It is.
    Really.
    Honestly…….whatever would Robin Hood have thought about this? :-)
    http://www.mynottinghamnews.co.uk/nottingham-aims-to-be-first-carbon-neutral-city-in-the-uk/

    100

  • #
    Mark M

    Old king Coal was a merry old soul, made lots of electricity.
    He got deposed by his many foes , who wanted  intermittency.

    And this they got, and we’ve all gone to pot,
    so they call for the batteries three, plus windmills more,
    to keep us poor… but no electricity. 

    > comment at the australian by john

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/aemo-taps-emergency-energy-powers-after-a-unit-at-agls-liddell-coalfired-power-plant-fails/news-story/a1132861dec100122fe3148cb62162c4

    130

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    It turns out that coal plants have to reduce their generating capacity due to heat.

    Large coal thermal plant generally will not perform as well in extreme hot weather and can also have output limited by environmental constraints, for example, cooling pond temperature limits.

    As heatwaves are likely to run closer to each other, thermal generation plants may have to run at higher output for more days in a row than historically, with shorter periods in between to replenish fuel stockpiles and maintain plant if needed.

    Taken from
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-coal-fleet-feels-heat-state-risk-system-black-96770/

    320

    • #
      Yonniestone

      As more unreliable energy sources are forced upon the grid coal plants will have to run at higher outputs for more days then historically.

      FIFY.

      191

    • #
      Chris Morris

      No Peter
      Renew doesn’t know what it is talking about – as per usual. Even without environmental constraints, the generators produce less in hot weather because their vacuums aren’t so good. That is fundamental physics – something many don’t understand. They also hit generator winding temperature limitations.
      The coal plants are almost all designed to be baseload so they don’t need rest periods. Actually running them at baseload makes them a lot more reliable.
      The gas plants suck from same pipelines, so they do need to build up pressure again. That could be easily cured by more coal seam gas wells and fraccing.
      Renew just doesn’t want to admit that wind and solar are unreliable, so want to tar the cheaper more reliable alternatives with the same brush.

      251

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Thanks for that info Chris, I’ll scratch Renew from my source list. My understanding was that the plants were designed to be N+1 so that you could drop a unit without affected base capacity. This system has worked well in the past, but it does mean that you have 15% of potential generating capacity offline at any one time. From and Engineering point of view this is perfectly justifiable, but accountants are always picking on it.

        56

        • #
          Chris Morris

          No – grids are N-1 or even n-2. The grids work on the basis that they have enough reserves to cover the biggest unit (or biggest 2 units) falling off and still being able to maintain the supply without shedding. The reserves might be partially loaded other plant, fast start GTs or pumped hydro. Or even the SA battery.
          Stations usually have each generating unit unitized so if it trips, there is only one down. There is always a risk of trip or forced outage. The more it is ramped up and down, or part loaded, the more trips happen. They also increase as the plant gets older. Generally plant aims for this to be about 1%. You can get it higher through redundant protection systems, but that costs more and increases the risk of false positives.

          131

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          The Science Behind The Mess

          Some call it “hot” CO2.

          A few days ago it was “enhanced” CO2.

          The most recent item “hot CO2″, illustrates the craziness perfectly, CO2 cannot be any “hotter” than the parcel of air it is in.

          The concept is scientifically bizarre, but then that goes for the entire CO2, renewables, climate change meme.

          The last 7,000 years has been sending us a signal that humanity seems intent on ignoring.

          In that time, sea levels have been oscillating down and have fallen 6 metres and have now stabilized and been relatively constant for the last century.

          Alarmists who claim 1 mm per annum is “rising sea levels” are thrashing a dead horse there. Can you even measure that accurately.

          I think that 10 mm per decade is making a statement that the overall present trend is up: barely.

          How humans can claim to be an intelligent species while endorsing the concept of Man Made Global Warming is unbelievable.

          How did we get into this mess????

          KK

          100

          • #
            Carbon500

            KK: My view is that we got into this mess via the selling of a dodgy concept by second-rate scientists to scientifically uneducated and unquestioning politicians. Add in the mainstream media whose interest is purely in peddling sensationalism and scary stories with no questions asked, and here we are.
            I’ve found that it’s nigh-on impossible to argue with warmists – they have no interest in historic data or figures, and blindly accept all the rubbish that get churned out daily.
            How it will all end I can’t imagine.

            30

      • #
        RickWill

        Giving intermittents priority access makes it certain that base load will decline meaning that base load generators will have increasing fluctuating demand until the next base load generator shuts down permanently and is replaced by gas. Shutting Hazelwood was good for other coal generators but bad for grid reliability.

        Zibelman has set a low bar because she claims that no one should expect to have a reliable power supply. There are plenty of thermal plants that run reliably in ambients near 50C.

        140

      • #
        RickWill

        On the matter of derating, my solar panels were about 30% down on rated output on Friday during the hottest part of the day. Peak output for the day was from 1500 to 1530 after it cooled a little with some wispy clouds passing over.

        70

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘….high ambient temperatures and cooling pond temperature limits.’

      We can’t plan ahead for the possibility of high temperatures, its in the lap of the gods, but surely we can find a way to chill the ponds.

      30

    • #

      “As heatwaves are likely to run closer to each other…”

      Well, that’s a cute way of inserting a warmist message as a given. Maybe there’s been too much talk of historical heat and heat waves on Jo Nova lately.

      But I’ll take this as an argument for making nice new coal plants. Just in case the old ones overheat.

      101

    • #
      beowulf

      I know the situation is different for the land-locked power stations in the La Trobe, but up in the Hunter/Central Coast, Eraring and Vales Point both use sea water. No overheating ponds, just warm water discharged back into the lakes where the fish love living near the outlets year-round.

      Up in the valley, Bayswater and Liddell use water from Lake Liddell supplied from the Hunter River in great quantity from Glenbawn Dam upstream. Bayswater has 4 cooling towers — no water is discharged back to the lake. Liddell has no cooling towers and must discharge back into the lake, but it’s a big lake topped up regularly. If Glenbawn runs low they can pump water from the Barnard River on the eastern side of the Great Divide up over Barrington Tops into the headwaters of the Hunter on the western flank to maintain supplies to the power stations.

      Mt Piper PS at Lithgow uses recycled mine water for cooling. It has twin cooling towers and no discharge; no cooling pond.

      Cool water is not a problem for NSW coal power stations.

      150

      • #
        Chris Morris

        Beowolf
        Most of the plant you describe, particularly those with cooling tower, do have a cooling pond. It is at the base of the tower. Water is recycled back through tube side of the condensers after the tower has cooled it. Because of evaporation related to the cooling process, there needs to be near continuous makeup water added.
        This has to be distinguished from those plant which use a large water source as a heat dump. Those are usually the ones with environmental limits on.

        80

        • #
          beowulf

          My Bad. We have a jargon issue. Referring back to the context of the original comment that I was replying to, I’m talking about an external cooling pond; you’re talking internal. Further, I’m talking about the intake temp from a water source where hot water is simultaneously discharged into that water source. I wasn’t concerned about environmental limits on the temp of the discharged water, just the effects of drawing in warm water for further cooling, reducing efficiency — what your referring to as a heat dump.

          60

    • #
      MatrixTransform

      such complete gibberish.
      fossils underpin the system 24/7/365 to about 95%.
      efficiency is the wrong word

      …efficacy is the right word.

      30

  • #
    Bobl

    And so it begins, no-one of the majors taking this seriously, state governments in denial and Australia importing 30000 new migrants or around 180MW of peak consumption per year. This same event next year = 430MW shortfall and in just 5 years 1.15 GW shortfall – for the same weather event!

    This denial by government and failure to upgrade infrastructure to match nett migration is just insane. It isn’t the 11th hour, it’s already too late to address the problem in the southern states without zeroing migration.

    230

    • #
      RickWill

      Australia is installing a heap more wind turbines that will have a guaranteed output of ZERO on a hot day. Australia is also installing a lot more solar panels, which are derated by about 30% at peak heat and produce nothing during the evening peak.

      The latest catch-phrase is “Dispatchable VRE”. Will only be installed if intermittents and storage are subsidised as there is no way it is economic when competing with coal generators.

      My prediction – cost of grid electricity in Australia will continue to increase. Yesterday was further confirmation that the only sensible way is to make your own. Use the grid to game the system as all intermittent generators are doing but make certain you have a secure supply when needed.

      111

  • #
    TdeF

    Could Greens leader Richard di Natale get any sillier? He blames the loss of power to 150,000 Victoria homes and businesses yesterday on an overdependence on coal and the consequential heat wave.

    So if we stop using coal, there will be no more heat waves and we do not need to use electricity to cool our homes. It’s so logical.

    Then a land of ‘droughts and flooding rains’ in the 19th century will become a land of constant mild temperatures, regular modest rainfall and happy scampering rabbits, once the rabbit proof fence comes down and we stop using coal, eating meat and growing trees.

    All problems solved. We can only be grateful for such Green wisdom.

    251

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      There were 30,000 blacked out in Adelaide Thursday and as we know SA is virtuously coal fired stations free.

      And various firms had shut down because of the heat. In Mt Barker the main street (practically all shops) shut down for the afternoon. Must admit I don’t know if the pub did so.

      150

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Graeme, I guess the cost of staying cool was too huge a business impost for Mt Barker’s Gawler street businesses. But Aldi was still open & Vinnies and the Salvo op shops were both open so folks could cool off there if they wanted.

        80

  • #
    Mark M

    Looks like taxpayer parasite Elon Musk and his expensive electric junk will not save the planet after all …

    Tesla’s mass layoffs and reduced car production have Wall Street ‘waking up from the dream’

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/01/23/teslas-mass-layoffs-reduced-car-production-has-wall-street-waking-up-dream/?utm_term=.e49b6af40683

    via: junkscience

    170

  • #
    David Maddison

    This is the lie being propogated by the Victoriastan energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio.

    Lily D’Ambrosio: We lost, in terms of power generation, 1,800 megawatts of power capacity in Victoria. Most of that was as a result of failed infrastructure from our coal and gas units.

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2UhqMoi #newsday

    100

    • #
      David Maddison

      Sorry, her comments no longer appear at the above link but similar and worse comments appear here;

      https://amp.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-s-frail-energy-grid-exposed-on-day-of-record-heat-and-demand-20190125-p50tqr.html

      80

      • #
        RickWill

        That article at least has some comment to spin for a 21st century climate friendly grid:

        Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor said the situation in Victoria “reinforced the need for investment in reliable 24/7 generation”.

        Mr Taylor said the Morrison government was backing new reliable generation investment through its underwriting program – an agreement to purchase power from successful private sector proposals.

        This article even mentions the low wind output:
        https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/blackout-ahead-for-130-000-homes-as-power-system-falters-20190125-p50tn7.html

        Major outages at coal plants combined with wind farms operating well below capacity saw the energy market operator pull the plug on more than 60,000 customers.

        50

    • #
      joseph

      There’s something almost beautiful about it. I wonder if it is all her own work?

      60

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        I heard her say the words on radio yesterday.

        Along with a similar comment by Dick NiAtalie.

        Renewables, perfect 998%.
        Coal, Failure. Replace.

        KK

        92

    • #
      truth

      The Minister and the rest of the RE CULT can only deliberately deceive the Australian people like this because the LW MSM is in their camp …and a willing accomplice.

      There are so many people lying out there…including the authorities, although in their reports for posterity they reluctantly tell the truth…to cover themselves against future liability when a great country is destroyed…so many people lying ….that only the conservative media taking them on and confronting them and exposing their lies …on air…. can save Australia from this Global Socialist malevolence.

      This is the biggest danger Australia has faced since WW2 IMO.

      161

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        In full agreement.

        72

      • #
        el gordo

        Sky News is our only hope, but saving ‘Australia from this Global Socialist malevolence’ needs to be fleshed out a bit.

        Marx would be appalled at the link, nothing in his manifesto about closing down industry to save the world. Clear and simple, global warming hysteria is directly related to our Christian heritage.

        32

        • #
          robert rosicka

          Sky news ? Your wasting your breath , they are competing with the ABC as far as fake news and climate change go .
          Maybe when Credlin and Murray get back from holidays we might get some counter arguments .

          80

  • #
    David Maddison

    It’s truly Orwellian that Victoriastan’s electricity failures are being blamed on coal and gas generation, not the deliberate closure of such power stations or the dependence on weather dependent electricity production.

    131

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Orwellian is correct and with a bitter irony most in the near future won’t ever had heard of 1984 even though they’ll be living it.

      Increasing the cost of coal 300% by Andrews was just one of the ploys utilised by the regime in their attack on Victoria’s middle class.

      “War is Peace / Freedom is Slavery / Ignorance is Strength”

      171

  • #
    truth

    When Audrey Zilbelman blamed ‘aging’ coal plants …she knew because AEMO’s spelt it out in reports…and MIT and Yale reports on problems with managing large-scale penetration of intermittent renewables …describe it…that introduction of intermittents causes serious physical damage of many kinds to coal plants due to the cycling and ramping up and down that is required of coal plants that come to the rescue from standby mode …when intermittents inevitably fail.
    Economic damage is done to coal plants from the introduction of intermittents by the priority for dispatch mandated by government for the intermittents on the strength of their marginal price which is a price bid for undispatchable unfirmed electricity.
    The favoring of the intermittents relegates coal …the price of which is not only for dispatchable electricity…but covers almost ALL services to secure system strength and stability….to standby mode.
    Coal plants then have to be compensated so they’ll stick around and take and pay for ….the intermittents-caused damage to many components of the plant….that causes them to be offline more often than normal for maintenance.
    AEMO…DiNatale … Shorten …LW MSM and the rest of the RE CULT are deliberately trying to make Australians think that if we still had a NEM driven by coal-fired electricity we’d be suffering these and more blackouts and shutdowns of smelters etc because …they try to deceive Australians into believing…coal is inherently unreliable. They know the opposite is the truth.
    The LEFT is LYING to us so that we won’t know what’s happened to Australia until we wake up one day soon to find it’s all too late…to find we’re in an energy-insecure and therefore miserably poor Socialist country under the direction of dysfunctional European Global Socialists in Paris/UN/Davos…our country having been made the roadkill for the world’s move to Global Socialism.
    It’s the Fabian Left’s dream come true.
    Severe energy rationing in Australia is an inevitable outcome IMO.

    271

    • #
      Serp

      Maybe all of us should prefix our user names with “Cassandra_” because nobody is listening and we’ve been right all along.

      I guess that until a wagering organization opens a betting pool on the date of the East Coast Power Grid Disaster it’s pointless to expect any of the supposedly responsible people to take notice.

      80

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      As you suggest: All coal fired suppliers are entitled to a permanent sustainability supplement for providing the basic frequency control.

      Why wasn’t this itemised originally.

      KK

      72

  • #
    robert rosicka

    I’m seeing the comment “on paper we have enough capacity” but as with the trolls here they fail to comprehend that 1 mw of coal fired power does not equal 1 mw of wind or solar power .

    91

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Now why would AEMO have to intervene in Victoriastan power prices again today I wonder ? no wind , overcast day so not much solar perhaps .

    91

  • #
    Tom R. Hammer

    I shouldn’t laugh at the misfortune of others, but if I could be selective about laughing at those who keep supporting a renewable, non-fossil fuel agenda, well then, I’m ROTFLMAO. And it’s only going to get more comical in the years ahead. Bring it on! Full speed ahead to our glorious, fossil fuel-free, conflict free, free energy for all Utopia.
    It’s not worth losing friends over arguments over global warming and energy supplies. They know my opinions on global warming, renewable energy, fossil fuels, etc. I’ll try and resist the “I told you so!”, but I’m still quietly enjoying the comedy of the impending train wreck with the train drivers holding full throttle but just starting to have little concerns and cautions niggle at their conscience. Drive it home guys! Drive it home. Wind and solar forever! It’s no time for caution now. Death to coal!
    (All sarcasm for those who need it spelt out.)

    131

  • #
    Mark M

    .@LilyDAmbrosioMP:

    “We lost, in terms of power generation, 1,800 megawatts of power capacity in Victoria. Most of that was as a result of failed infrastructure from our coal and gas units.”

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1088660342459092997

    > Better get used to it in Victoriastan, , as it is that 1800MW of infrastructure you want to blow up to save the planet.

    80

  • #
    pat

    sack Zibelman. send her home.

    BBC to the world:

    25 Jan: BBC World Sce Newshour: James Menendez: What’s Next for Venezuela’s Military?
    (Australia heatwave segment begins 40min14sec to the end 48min20sec; interviews Andrew Gissing, Risk Frontiers Australia, who says it’s a series of heatwaves that began in Nov last year. Dec was the warmest on record. Menindee fish kill; BBC: can agriculture survive? etc; report from BBC’s Phil Mercer in Australia, etc)
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172w25lrsk9y8x

    Risk Frontiers: Andrew Gissing, General Manager – Resilience
    Andrew has over 15 years emergency management experience, including in senior executive roles. Andrew is an emergency risk management and resilience expert. He previously held the position of Deputy Chief Officer / Director Emergency Management and Communication with the Victoria State Emergency Service and, before joining Risk Frontiers, was the Director Enterprise Risk Management at the Department of Family and Community Services…
    He has recently contributed to World Health Organisation and International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Society publications on disaster resilience…
    Andrew holds Masters (Hons) of Science and Bachelors of Economics degrees, and is the author of some thirty journal and conference papers. He is a graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors and a certified business continuity practitioner.
    https://riskfrontiers.com/people/leadership-team/andrew-gissing/

    40

  • #
    pat

    from 23min01sec to the end (28min15) – Richard Alley with a doting Roland Pease (BBC):

    AUDIO: 26 Jan: BBC Science in Action: Roland Pease
    Globally we all use data from weather forecasting and are used to getting this for free. Could paying for such information become more common, and what kind of problems could that cause for those who can’t pay?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3cswmqn

    30

  • #
    pat

    CAGW – 1min08sec to 12min50sec:

    23 Jan: BBC Newshour: Davos: Can Big Business Solve Climate Change?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172w25lrsk17km

    18 Jan: BBC: Australia swelters through record-breaking heatwave
    Australia has just sweltered through at least five of its 10 warmest days on record, authorities estimate…
    The town of Noona in New South Wales hit a night-time temperature of 35.9C.
    It was the highest minimum temperature ever recorded anywhere in Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said…
    Forecasters have compared conditions to the nation’s worst heatwave in 2013, where the mercury soared to 39C for seven consecutive days.
    The hottest day on record for Australia is 7 January 2013, when the national average maximum temperature was 40.3C…

    “The current heatwave ranks alongside that of January 2013 as the most extensive and prolonged heatwave on record over Australia,” BOM senior meteorologist Blair Trewin told the BBC earlier this week.
    “There have been other notable heatwaves but none affecting such a large area of the country.”…

    Is it dangerous?…
    Sixteen people in South Australia were admitted to hospital due to the heat on Wednesday, the state government said.
    Authorities in several states have also issued health warnings urging people to stay indoors and minimise physical activity, with heightened concerns for the elderly, the chronically ill and children…
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-46886798

    last January – the heatwave that would never end?

    13 Jan 2018: BBC: How Australia’s extreme heat might be here to stay
    By Adam Morton, Hobart
    A section of highway connecting Sydney and Melbourne started to melt. Bats fell dead from the trees, struck down by the heat.
    On the northern Great Barrier Reef, 99% of baby green sea turtles, a species whose sex is determined by temperature, were found to be female.
    In outer suburban Sydney, the heat hit 47.3C (117F) before a cool change knocked it down – to the relative cool of just 43.6C in a neighbouring suburb the following day.
    Scenes from a sci-fi novel depicting a scorched future? No, just the first days of 2018 in Australia, where summer is in fierce form…
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-42657234

    20

  • #
    JB

    Nothing like a bit of load shedding and a few blackouts to make GetUp ShutUp. Come on GetUp, WakeUp.

    111

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Note to AEMO , next year during summer it’s going to get hot , no amount of solar panels or windfarms will prevent this it’s called summer .
      If there was one brain cell in any of the experts in charge then any electricity supplier would only be allowed to sell electricity to the grid if they could guarantee supply 95% out of 365 days.
      All your problems solved .

      100

  • #
    pat

    26 Jan: ABC: Brisbane’s summer rain missing in action, and there isn’t any on the horizon either
    ABC Weather By Kate Doyle
    No drought has been declared and the dams are still at 73.4 per cent but south-east Queensland’s usually wet summer has yet to eventuate for the state’s capital.

    David Crock, at the Bureau of Meteorology’s Brisbane office, said January so far was well below average, with only 26.4 millimetres of the 154 mm average hitting the main city gauge in Kangaroo Point so far.
    “If we look around south-east Queensland more widely, there’s a lot of stations, Sunshine Coast Airport is one, out towards Gatton as well and the Gold Coast,” Mr Crock said.
    “A lot of stations have had zero, one, two, three millimetres for the whole month.
    “A lot of places around the south-east are on track for their driest Januarys on record.”
    He said that anywhere south of Rockhampton had been “really, really dry” this month.
    December was “a bit of a mixed bag” but generally it was around average, according to Mr Crock…

    ***What is it usually like?
    Brisbane’s summer rainfall is quite variable. This is not the first January without much rain.
    Mr Crock said the peak of the thunderstorm season around Brisbane was normally in November and December…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-26/brisbanes-summer-rain-missing/10751120

    30

  • #
    pat

    25 Jan: CNN: ‘Feel the fear’: Climate change is now the talk of Davos
    By Ivana Kottasová
    Has business finally woken up to the enormous challenges posed by climate change? This year’s World Economic Forum provides some hope.
    Climate was a major theme in Davos, where panel discussions on everything from global warming to ocean sustainability and biodiversity drew large crowds.

    Naturalist and broadcaster David Attenborough was given top billing and primatologist Jane Goodall appeared on a panel. A dinner hosted by climate and environmental groups was one of the hottest tickets of the week.
    The focus on climate reflects developments that have been hard to miss even for profit-obsessed CEOs. Damaging storms have in recent years resulted in major financial losses and a California utility company has been brought to its knees by billions of dollars in claims related to wildfires.
    Companies have also seen how easy it is for their reputations to be tarnished over environmental issues — and how easy it can be to change.
    “Things change instantly because of the power of social media,” Burberry (BBRYF) board member Orna Ni-Chionna said during a panel discussion in Davos…

    On Thursday, he stood before a room packed with CEOs and climate change experts and warned that humanity’s survival is at stake.
    “Who is with me?” he yelled into the microphone as the crowd roared their approval. The question everyone was asking: what will follow that roar?
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/25/business/climate-change-davos/index.html

    25 Jan: VoiceOfEurope: Doomsday hysteria in Davos – UN chief says ‘we are losing the race’ on climate change
    by Emma R.
    The Paris climate accord has been shaken by the withdrawal of the United States under President Donald Trump, and by threats to do the same by Brazil’s new leader Jair Bolsonaro…
    “We need countries to make stronger commitments”, he said, calling for more measures to mitigate against climate change and adapt to it, along with financial aid for poorer countries.

    Another ***climate change advocate, former secretary of state John Kerry, who signed the Paris accord for the United States in 2016, agrees with him…
    As usual the carbon tax idea was in focus…
    https://voiceofeurope.com/2019/01/doomsday-hysteria-in-davos-un-chief-says-we-are-losing-the-race-on-climate-change/

    ***what’s a “climate change advocate”?

    30

    • #
      Greebo

      ***what’s a “climate change advocate”?

      That’s easy.

      “a person who publicly supports or recommends a particular cause or policy: he was an untiring advocate of economic reform.

      Follow the money and you’ll find someone like Gore.

      20

  • #
    toorightmate

    60 years ago, state government competed with each other to attract alumina refining and/or aluminium smelting. At that time, the federal government competed strongly with governments from New Zealand, USA, Canada, Europe and USA to attract those industries to Australia (for employment and revenue AND balance of payments).
    Producers of alumina and aluminium could now not find a worse place to do business than in Australia.
    The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.

    121

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Every time I drive past the idle stacks at Kurri Kurri which once provided jobs for 1200 and supported another couple of thousand in associated jobs I have a feeling of anger towards politicians.

      But then I realize that in getting rid of Kurri Aluminium, they could put off building the next coal fired generator.

      But then I wonder, where did the money go that had been put aside for that next generator.

      I’m sure, wherever it went, it made a few politicians very happy.

      KK

      81

  • #
    pat

    25 Jan: ClimateChangeNews: UN security council members mount new push to address climate threat
    UK, France lead push to set up UN “clearing house” to identify climate-stressed regions at risk of collapsing into conflict
    By Karl Mathiesen and Natalie Sauer
    The UN must establish a system to alert the world to regions where conflicts may be inflamed by climate change, several security council members urged on Friday.
    In a meeting of the council, permanent members France and the UK were joined by Germany, Peru, Poland and Belgium in a call for a “clearing house” for data and information to help them respond to climate security threats.

    France also called for the UN secretary general to deliver an annual report to the security council on the issue. Only Russia explicitly opposed the development of new UN capabilities…

    There is an “increasing consensus” among scientists that climate impacts have worsened the global migration crisis and conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, ***Lindsay Getschel, a research assistant at the Stimson Center told the meeting…

    On this occasion, only Russia stood openly apart, with representative Vassily Nebenzia calling it “excessive and counterproductive” to build new systems on top of the existing UN framework.
    US diplomat Jonathan Cohen said the country was willing to stand by its friends when “natural disasters” struck. Despite the topic of the meeting, he did not use the words “climate change”…

    Camilla Born, a climate security expert at think-tank E3G, said the new initiative could be “game changing”…

    Mali’s minister for foreign affairs Kamissa Camara said climate change was “one of the main reasons why we’re seeing this spike of violence in the Sahel”. But, he added, “this is not a problem unique to the Sahel, and frankly one that many countries across the Americas and Asia are going to be facing. This is really the canary in the mine.”
    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/01/25/un-security-council-members-mount-new-push-address-climate-threat/

    ***LinkedIn: Lindsay Getschel, Research Assistant at The Stimson Center
    Washington, DC, Think Tank
    Previous
    United Nations Peacekeeping, Luther College, Luther College Performing Arts Committee
    Education: The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

    20

    • #
      pat

      26 Jan: Xinhua: UN debates impact of climate change, urges action
      Achim Steiner, administrator of the UN Development Programme (UNDP), also delivered remarks, by phone.
      He called on the Security Council to recognize the science and empirical evidence, leverage all possible measures that can slow global warming, and invest in climate adaptation and risk reduction for the millions of people already suffering from the effects of climate change.

      For the first time in history, the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) was invited to brief the members of the Security Council on climate and extreme weather issues.
      Pavel Kabat, chief scientist at the WMO, brought some clear scientific data to the table Friday to inform the debate.
      “Climate change has a multitude of security impacts – rolling back the gains in nutrition and access to food; heightening the risk of wildfires and exacerbating air quality challenges; increasing the potential for water conflict; leading to more internal displacement and migration,” he said. “It is increasingly regarded as a national security threat.”

      Before the floor was opened to members of the Security Council, a ***youth representative and a researcher on environmental security, Lindsay Getschel, was also invited to speak…
      http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-01/26/c_137775245.htm

      the youthful Lindsay:

      Twitter: Lindsay Getschel
      https://twitter.com/l_getsch

      30

  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    Ms Zibelman says that she has been in the business for 30 years and that with systems like ours where generators “go off” then you have to do load shedding eh !? If she and the people like her in charge of our AEMO, cannot provide a system that can cope with all eventualities then she should pack her bags and leave !!
    There is no reason in the world why a power grid driven by coal generators could not cope with 50degC across the whole of this country.
    30 years ago we had a fantastic power grid in this country, now thanks to people like Ms Zibelman we are returned to being a 2nd rate nation with high prices and insecure supply.
    GeoffW

    130

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      And rapidly shrinking industry/employment that was formerly supported by cheap electricity from clean, reliable,coal fired power generators.

      KK

      111

      • #
        Another Ian

        KK

        Observation of a friend

        “The best part of this insanity is that when there is a power shortage we shut down our biggest, and very often, exporting manufacturing plants. Just shows the priorities here with the main aim to pull the daggy wool over the eyes of citizens for as long as possible.”

        120

    • #
      robert rosicka

      We lost second rate status a few years back Geoffrey, we are now trying for developing nation status .

      70

    • #
      Hivemind

      If you have a system ‘where generators “go off”’, you build extra generators to take up the load. This is how Australia’s system was built. It is fools like her and SA’s premier that allowed those generators to be dynamited. The even did it gleefully!

      20

    • #
      Greebo

      Funny, but I don’t recall any load shedding during the horrific events in Vic in 2009. Power was cut to around 60,000 homes, but this was largely due to damaged infrastructure, NOT load shedding.

      “Melbourne broke temperature records by experiencing three consecutive days above 43 °C (109 °F), with the temperature peaking at 45.1 °C (113.2 °F) on 30 January, the third hottest day in the city’s history.” On February 7 “Melbourne hit 46.4 °C (115.5 °F), the hottest temperature ever recorded for the city] and humidity levels dropped to as low as two percent”.(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Saturday_bushfires#Background).

      Two of the fires that day were quite near to where I live, but the power remained on the whole time. That was only 10 years ago. Just how short does Audrey think our memories are?

      10

  • #
    ATheoK

    Condolences to mistreated Australians!

    Reading through, I had to visit the linked post regarding lost data.

    “Bill Johnston found they are destroying that data.”

    Where the article states:

    “These measurements from past years can never be re-recorded. A four-terabyte external hard drive costs a couple of hundred dollars and would probably store a whole years worth of text files.”

    The situation is far worse.

    A large novel runs ap to 100,000 words.
    Average word length is usually shorter, but ten characters suffices and includes delimiters separating fields.
    Total characters per book runs around 1 megabyte.

    A gigabyte of storage would hold 1,000 books.
    A terabyte of storage would hold 1 million 100,000 word books.

    Taken further:
    A gigabyte is equivalent to almost five 2.5 meter tall bookcases 1.24 meters wide, filled with books.
    A terabyte is equivalent to 4.762 2.5 meter tall bookcases 1.24 meters wide, filled with books.

    A terabyte is equivalent to 40 rooms 12 meters square filled with 120 bookcases. Consider how few libraries are equivalent in size.

    It takes grossly incompetent programming, which is not uncommon, to fill terabytes of space with sparse data and wasted space.

    30

  • #
    John of Cloverdale, Western Australia

    Alan Jones is a big fan of Ms Audrey Zibelman podcast published on Jul 13, 2017

    Interesting comments about her background and the one where he called Josh Frydenberg, ‘the Minister of Blackouts’.

    In another 2GB podcast, Jones says:

    “Josh Frydenberg and I have known each other for a long time.

    “Josh, you are arguing renewable energy because you wanted a job with Turnbull. You were prepared to suck up to whatever Turnbull said and that got you the big job, Minister for Energy.

    “But you sold yourself out to get the job.

    “You told me and agreed with me on the front lawn of your house that the global warming stuff was rubbish.

    “You told me that on the front lawn of your house, Josh.

    Published April 13, 2018.

    100

    • #
      GD

      Alan Jones was right on the money with both those podcasts. Frydenberg is out of his depth and selling Australia down the tubes.

      Audrey Zibelman is a Turnbull import who should never have been given access to the levers of power in the AEMO.

      30

  • #
    Another Ian

    Currently Tas is pushing power to Vic but their price is $289.78, similar to Vic ($289)?

    NSW ($299)drawing from Qld ($105), Vic and SA ($79)

    Changed just now

    NSW still drawing as above, Tas to Vic Zero

    SA $84, Vic $165, Tas $271, NSW $ 168, Qld $84

    And again

    SA $-150, Vic $117, Tas $271, NSW $120, Qld $84

    Tas to Vic box still 0 but still red. Figures in that interconnector box

    0 0
    125

    Problems?

    70

    • #
      George

      One extreme to another.
      SA in now minus spot price.
      Spot Price (30min)
      -$55.28/MWh

      SA
      $-50.50
      Demand
      1,357
      Generation
      757
      Wind and Other
      1,188

      40

      • #
        RickWill

        Through the middle of the day solar is supplying over a third of the demand of 1500MW. Wind is near or at its stable cap so price goes negative to force some wind to reduce output. The gas will be compensated to stay connected thereby providing inertia for stability.

        50

        • #

          For some perspective here, across the total AEMO coverage area at the same time RickWill mentions here, solar power delivered just 18% of all required power. Solar plant power 4.4% and RTS 13.7%, at Midday, at its absolute best.

          Average across the whole day, (yesterday) a tick over 5%.

          Tony.

          60

          • #
            shannon

            Tony a question…

            Trying to understand on the AEMO site what for eg – 234 MW figure on a red background, interconnector panel means.

            Is this a “credit” amount between the states ???

            10

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Noticed the tassie red but no power going through have they burned the cable out again .

      70

  • #
    Robber

    Happy Australia Day, even if there’s nothing to celebrate about our ridiculous electricity system.
    The reality is that the owners of those coal plants are running them down towards end of life because Labor has declared a commitment to 50% renewables at both state and federal levels. That means lower utilisation of coal plants on average, lower profits, and lower maintenance. But as we witnessed, when peak power is required, solar is going down and so is wind. Yesterday, despite a nominal 5,500 MW of wind power to contribute to the evening peak of 33,000 MW, wind contributed only 1,300 MW or a tiny 4% of demand. So nearly 80% of wind capacity was useless. We therefore need to plan to supply 100% of peak demand from coal, gas and hydro. Without expensive storage, wind and solar are wasted investments that we are paying for in higher electricity prices. End this madness now.
    Yesterday’s average prices in SA/Vic were $550 and $750/MWhr, pushing the January 2019 averages up to $269 and $277/MWhr.
    In January 2017, before Hazelwood closed, SA/Vic prices were $84 and $62/MWhr.
    What more evidence do governments need to change direction NOW?!!

    151

  • #
    gowest

    Suck it up Melbourne, You wanted to get rid of coal – the two generators at the Yallourn coal-fired power station and ­another at Loy Yang A showed you what happens. Enjoying paying twice as much for power that does not work?

    200000 homes – plenty for a decent yellow jacket protest..

    182

    • #
      Greebo

      Suck it up Melbourne, You wanted to get rid of coal

      Gee, thanks. What about people like me who most certainly do NOT want to get rid of coal? You going to lump me in with those who should “suck it up”?

      20

      • #

        I’m from Melbourne and I luv ol’ king Cole. Even wrote a post on it ‘Energy’s the Staff of life.’ cited Tony from Oz, PA Pundits, in it.

        … Guess it’s time for us CAGW sceptics to take a leaf out of the Saul Alynsky play book, not focused abuse, but focused arguments from the DATA, write focused letter campaigns to PM and Cabinet, focused letters to news editor that disseminate to a larger audience, shared knowledge from experience discussed amongst ourselves here at Jo’s open forum. And what about a march, with banners saying what should be nailed to the cathedral door? And we also need to continue making donations to forums like Jo that allow us a place to communicate.

        We enquire, investigate, discuss,sift evidence, while the Green left activists act, undermine, infiltrate institutions to propagana-ize, Hafta’ bell the cat! We are individuals but we need to do group sorties.

        11

  • #

    The day of lowest power consumption of any week is always the Sunday, and last Sunday, the average power generation to cover that consumption was 22150MW per hour across the day.

    Yesterday, Friday, to cover that increased power consumption, the average power generation per hour was ….. 29500MW ….. PER HOUR.

    That’s an increase over the low day of 7350MW or an increase of 33.2%.

    One third higher.

    Thank heavens today is Saturday, the second lowest day for power consumption for the week.

    Yesterday, the power supplied by the dreaded CO2 emitting plants came in at 82% of the total across the whole 24 hour day.

    There were 6 of the 48 coal fired Units across the Country off line, so minus 2700MW in all.

    There were 1540 of those 2260 wind towers on average not moving at all, so minus 3850MW in all.

    Yep! Coal fired power is definitely unreliable, eh!

    Tony.

    170

  • #
    mem

    Nothing like entrepreneurs and astute retailers to take advantage of an issue – Aldi out in my suburban area north of Melbourne had night lights with torch that will come on in the advent of an electricity outage and works for two hours. They sold like hotcakes.

    80

  • #
    George

    Nothing like entrepreneurs and astute retailers to take advantage of an issue

    Elon Musk will probably be smiling inside at our misfortune.
    The Tesla powerwall can function during blackouts and allow solar panels to keep charging and powering the home, I think.
    They can’t keep up with demand in SA.

    40

  • #
    robert rosicka

    So the answer to our problems is just install more solar and wind power generation and close Yallourn . How did I miss this before it seems so simple now .

    90

  • #
    Liberator

    Can we trust the AWS reported temperatures, I’m confused? Officially(Kyabram) had a maximum of 47.1 yesterday yet when I look at the AWS 30 min data the highest reported temperature was at 6.30 pm and was 45.4. So why is the reported temperature so different to what I can see on the AWS data?

    I thought where a peak is reached, no matter where in the reporting time it gets reported. i.e. if it was 45.4 at 6.30 and then peaked at 47.1 at say 6.38 then this would have been recorded in the data table but there is no 47.1 reported in this table where is the 47.1?

    02

  • #

    Hello learned bloggers
    Could someone please advise of a website that has information of what percentage of each sector of coal, gas, hydro, wind and solar energy was being generated on Friday the 25th for Victoria?

    00

  • #
    Tom O

    Just think how much better these things will be when the new smart meters and “the internet of things” become the way of life! You won’t have to worry about rolling blackouts any more, but your washer and dryer might not work when you want to use them, and your thermostat on your A/C or heater, depending on what the temperature is might not give you the relief you are looking for – say 72 in the winter and 78 in the summer. So what if they read they are set correctly but the inside temperature in the winter is 62 and in the summer its 92. At least there won’t be a black out! And don’t think that can’t happen.

    01

  • #
    Mining Magnet

    I look forward to a time when my home has enough domestic storage + solar + wind + motion energy collector systems to be independent of ‘Energy providers’ and the price/availability tap-dancing that goes with it…..and I love summer air-con in Nth Qld . Friend of mine has achieved that independence in the wilds of the Bundaberg hinterland. He relies on a couple of garden sheds full of car(!) batteries and a (now) fairly sophisticated wind and solar-gen set up he has been developing since the mid-90′s. As a side benefit, he reckons he is virtually immune to breathing battery acid and hydrogen now (!) still cooks on a wood stove and it works for his family atm. Perhaps not what ‘alternative power’ had in mind, but ….independent ….
    Fossil fuel gen-systems have been with us since late-1800′s and the technological landscape associated with them looks quite different today.
    Seems reasonable to expect a future where a similar scale of advances in non-fossil energy sources’ recovery/extraction and storage, together with improvements in efficiency in the use of what energy is available – maybe taking less time tho’.
    What we know for sure is that the Fossil-Fuel-Energy lobby has spent lots and lots and lots of cash disputing Climate Change. An estimated US$2 bill or so, since 2006
    For the energy market potentially in dispute, that is small beer compared with the oil/gas/coal lobby’s weekly income, so any delay in change and they certainly get a good ROI
    Given that storage capacity (ie ‘energy inventory’ if you like) is one answer to the vagaries of current renewable technology – it is easy to see why Mr Musk is so unpopular !!
    Closing on a comedic note – DuPont was a significant sponsor to the ‘Montreal Protocol’ enviro meeting in the late 80′s – what good blokes !
    This meeting created an agreed and binding time-line, eliminating the air-con refrigerant then in use because it harmed the ozone layer.
    Guess who held patents and production rights to the only economically feasible alternative ?
    Corporate entities are not bystanders, by definition they are ‘disrupters’ of conditions that hinder their profit-making
    We may not see what California went through in the early 2000′s, but the energy industry will not voluntarily move to improve the Australian power supply if it impedes profit

    00

Leave a Reply to C. Paul Barreira Cancel reply

  

  

  

You can use these HTML tags

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>