JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

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186 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #
    Peter

    I think we are fighting a losing battle. Now that I am older and speak my mind, the more I get ridiculed for not believing
    in the group think on warming. Particularly from young people, and they are the future.

    251

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      I used to b more upbeat about wining the battle than I am now. When climate change is woven into the plot of otherwise good TV series you know that it now has a life all its own and will not die anytime soon.

      I am sure of one thing though, anyone who believes this climate change nonsense is not the future. At least not unless you spell success, f-a-i-l-u-r-e.

      300

      • #
        Ted O'Brien

        Watch events in Australia closely. We have two state elections coming up and a federal election sometime between now and May.

        Victoria seems to be a Marxist state. A lost cause. In New South Wales a coalition government is destroying its big majority as it chases the Green vote. At the federal level we see a hopelessly split coalition on a losing run. And I have seen no sign that anybody understands just how big the split is.

        The federal election may well be fought on AGW on a yes/no basis.

        170

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Ted,

          Thanks but no thanks. I have enough trouble trying to tell who all the players are right here in my own backyard.

          It’s been a long time since I began reading Jo Nova and it’s been steadily downhill. But then right here I never expected Bernie Sanders to get enough support to even get on the presidential ballot. All it takes is asking yourself where in the world is any form of socialism succeeding and you would run from Bernie. Yet they don’t.

          90

          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            That, Roy, is because in Australia they haven’t suffered financially yet. They will eventually.

            At that point they’ll start asking themselves some serious questions around what they believe.

            It’s the “hip-pocket nerve” that’ll wake them up to how they’ve been conned. That, and watching Australian jobs and businesses increasingly departing to China, India and other low energy cost destinations.

            However, thanks to President Trump’s abandonment of the Paris farce, adoption of fracking technology and a low tax environment, the USA will do a lot better than the rest of the West.

            50

    • #
      PeterS

      Peter, that’s how the cookie crumbles. History shows civilisations go in cycles and the West in currently on a downward path to self destruction. There is nothing we can do to stop it. All we can do is be prepared as best you can for whatever happens. This goes far beyond just climate change. The West’s population is rapidly aging, getting into more and more debt and civil unrest is on an increase. Trump is just a temporary eye of the storm, which if we are lucky will last a few more years during which there is some hope the decline can be arrested for a while. That really depends on the voters. Here in Australia don’t have the equivalent of a Trump but the next best thing is for the voters to reject both major parties, which in effect is what the US did. They rejected the traditional Democrat and Republican strain of candidates. Trump initially was bitterly hated by his own party but the people continually supported him all the way to the main elections. The people were simply sick and tired of the old guard. I see the same thing happening here but the problem is our form of government election is very different to that of the US. We don’t vote for a leader, we vote for a party who elects the leader. That’s one downside with our Westminster system, which mind you on the whole is not bad. SO we are faced with the real prospect of a hung parliament at the net federal elections, which can be either chaotic or our version of the eye of the storm depending on who hold the balance and which major party ends up forming government. Not a good way to elect a new government even if the people by and large feel exactly the same way our US counterparts did in electing Trump. Let’s hope parties like ACP and ON hold the balance of power in both houses of parliament. At least it might gives us some respite. Any other outcome would be a complete disaster, unless Morrison changes tune if he wins and fully recognises that we need a real change in direction and not just keeps talking about it.

      163

      • #
        GD

        Let’s hope parties like ACP and ON hold the balance of power in both houses of parliament.

        That would be ideal, but I won’t be holding my breath.

        However, even a couple of senators from ACP and ON could make a difference, and a difference is what we will need if Morrison goes the way he seems to be going, or if the unthinkable happens and Labor gets in.

        We are between a rock and a hard place.

        82

        • #
          PeterS

          Yes that would be both a realistic and a sensible compromise given the current circumstances where both major parties are on the nose. If on the other hand the Senate ends up hostage to the Greens and like minded independents then it’s down hill at an even faster rate than has been in the past.

          20

        • #
          destroyer d69

          I feel that it is too late for a minority led exit from the disaster we are in. The best any of the independents can expect to achieve is to be a burr under the saddleblanket of the major parties. They are only too willing to support the majors policy agendas, in order to garner a few crumbs of their own agenda, to have any real effect on the serious problems that the country is rapidly approaching. It may be time for the entire government to be dismissed and the country placed into a caretaker administration with supply guaranteed for essential services only untill an election can be held to restore a government that is more concerned with the state of the nation than with their own egoes. It is also essential that a a Right of Recall is available to the people to allow the removal from office of members who are not performing in accordance with promised policies and agendas.

          10

    • #
      Ian Hill

      What I can’t get over is that governments are spending billions of dollars on policies and practices (eg renewables) designed to be carried out hundreds of years into the future, on the assumption that future generations will be wanting to do the same. All it will take is one person, as yet unborn, to throw a spanner in the works.

      Of course a decent sized blackout will have the same impact, but somehow it keeps on not happening!

      111

      • #
        Hasbeen

        I agree we are losing.

        Too many large sectors of our economies are banking on the rort continuing now for us to stop it.

        With all of academia backing the thing, although a high percentage must know the truth, organisations like the world bank & the international monetary fund joining the UN in the scam, we are in trouble.

        Add many of our largest companies, & investment organisations using it to further their profits, & we don’t have many allies.

        When the name was changed from global warming to climate change it was obvious the scams leaders knew the warming wouldn’t last, & were changing tack without admitting change was coming.

        I think there is now too much invested in climate change for it to be killed, even if the Thames ice fairs become viable again.

        That the IPCCs latest frenzy is not attracting derision from the general public shows they will now accept any stupidity provided it does not actually affect them today.

        91

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      I think young people are too entrenched in there smart phones to notice whats going on around them. Now that Farcebook and twatter have censored alot of alternate information, they dont really care. Gone is the real anti war movement of the late 60s as per anti Vietnam war (or war and nuclear testing in general) demonstrations and the like.

      20

      • #
        Ted O'Brien

        May I use those? Please?

        20

      • #
        John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia

        I keep pointing out to the young ones that their smartphones (like most of their possessions and lifestyles eg surfing)only exist because of petrochemicals and mining. They frankly have no idea and just look blankly at me. I have lost hope for my grandchildren’s future. Owned by China, a ‘climate denier’, I guess.

        31

      • #
        Bushkid

        Having been too young to ever have experienced anything but the span of their short lives, they are suckers for lapping up everything thrown at them by Twitter, MSM, ABC etc. They believe if because they have no lived experience of anything else. Sitting ducks for indoctrination.

        00

    • #
      yarpos

      I dont think so. Its easy to think that way sitting in Australia (big assumption on my part that you are) because we tend to lag the world, even in the Internet age. Good progress is being made globally and lights are either slowly coming on or being shone in places the alarmists would rather it wasnt.

      I saw a great faux Democrat advert the other day that took each aspect of what they claim they would do and pointed out the stupidity and impracticality of it all. Something assembling the core alarmist stupdity and trail of failed doomsayer predictions would probably be very useful.

      10

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Recently on a Facebook page I had a lot of fun tweaking the tail of the CO2 Brigade by pointing out how many coal,fired power stations are being built in China, India, the Philippines , Japan etc.

      CO2 will NOT stop rising was my theme.

      I added in the ‘threat ‘posed by methane and water vapor.

      The end of the world in definitely nigh and there is NOTHING we can do about it at all !

      All the folks suddenly became very ‘uninterested’ in the whole topic……

      The whole CO2 brigade argument depends on making all of us feel ‘GUILTY AS HELL’ for not saving the planet & civilisation by eliminating a;; fossil fuel use.

      But pointing out that world in going to ‘hell’ anyway despite anything we do, destroys the psychological underpinnings of the guilt complex. And sets people free to rethink the whole issue.

      Ho hum !!

      10

    • #

      When you have knowledge,
      and they have unproven beliefs,
      you have to speak to the
      young whippersnappers
      in their own Saul Alinsky-style
      language — ridicule them,
      and treat them as science deniers,
      unworthy of debate,
      just like they do to you:

      Tell the young women they are
      “DING DING DING bats.”

      and tell the young men
      “up your nose with a rubber hose”

      Leftists have feelings
      and conclusions:
      – data-free
      – fact-free, and
      – logic-free

      How can we debate feelings?

      10

  • #
    Roger

    Not a losing battle. Take Heart – the latest doom-laden IPCC prediction shows how desperate they are .

    That tells me they know full well that earth is slowly beginning to cool and that will destroy their claims and expose the political purpose behind fantasy AGE.

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    • #
      Roger

      Fantasy AGE !!! WHOOPS should read Fantasy AGW ……

      100

    • #
      el gordo

      I agree with Roger.

      For a start, Angus Taylor will announce in January we are calling for tenders to build three new coal fired power stations. It won’t be a tax burden because Beijing will gladly take on the financial responsibility.

      Why not go the whole hog and pull out of Paris, enter stage right, our quick witted environment minister saying its a sensitivity issue and it appears the klimatariat has overstated the warming and the models are flawed.

      Down to more parochial considerations, decentralisation to alleviate the pressure in the capital cities. Turnbull called for expressions of interest in bullet trains, then put the submissions in the bottom draw for this election.

      I see the Coalition winning in a landslide.

      52

      • #

        el gordo,

        For a start, Angus Taylor will announce in January we are calling for tenders to build three new coal fired power stations. It won’t be a tax burden because Beijing will gladly take on the financial responsibility.

        I guess you can’t really say, but is that just wishful thinking, or is there some ‘insider knowledge’ attached to your statement?

        Tony.

        70

        • #
          el gordo

          There has been talk of government intervention to build new coal fired power stations, but the start up costs have been a sticking point. This from the Guardian.

          ‘Morrison held out the prospect of government support for new coal-fired power stations “where they meet all the requirements” of the yet-to-be finalised mechanisms to boost investment in new electricity generation.

          ‘One of the key problems preventing private investment in new coal-fired power generation is proponents have struggled to get finance because they are unable to predict future carbon risk, particularly given Australia’s decade-long partisan standoff over emissions reduction policies.’

          ——–

          I’m not into wishful thinking, a good journalist needs to read between the lines.

          Where do you think they will build these power stations and which international consortium would most likely win the tender?

          20

          • #

            el gordo,

            sometimes the brain works in mysterious ways, and for the last hour or so since reading your somewhat ‘cryptic’ comment, I’ve been wondering about it.

            There actually IS a way that they can achieve something like this.

            Okay, three (and let’s say large scale here) new tech USC HELE coal fired plants. Each is 2000MW Nameplate, and will operate (over it’s lifetime) at around 85% Capacity Factor. So that will give EACH of them a yearly output of (close to) 15,000GWH. (GigaWattHours) (and keep this figure at front of mind here)

            Let’s (figuratively) kill a number of birds with the one stone.

            The Government is currently referring to it as firming up supply, in other words, a constant and regular supply.

            So rather than just call for a “Nameplate” of 6000MW, (those 3 HELE’s) how about the Government calling for a dedicated 45,000GWH per year (the total output from those 3 HELE’s) from any and every type of power generation source. They could even mention ‘over the life of the HELE’, 40 to 50 years.

            What this would then do (and it’s a public tender, so all the data would become available to everyone) would very effectively show that to achieve this, then wind and solar would HAVE to base their data on Capacity Factor, and we (all of us) would see once and for all that wind and solar are NOT anywhere in the ballpark cheaper than coal fired power, because it’s not based on the lesser Nameplate but on actual generated and delivered power, hence considerably more wind and solar plants.

            That Capacity Factor would then become common knowledge, and so would the age factor as well. Lifetime power and all that.

            Just sayin’.

            Then you ask this:

            Where do you think they will build these power stations and which international consortium would most likely win the tender?

            No idea where, but one in North Queensland, one around the Bayswater area and one in Victoria, and for that one in Victoria, they could use the now advanced German technology for brown coal plants, as they are now the equivalent of the black coal ones. If not, they could ‘green field’ the one for Queensland, and a ‘brown field‘ revival of the Upgrades for Bayswater and Mt. Piper, as a lot of the pre construction (paper) work is already in place for that, just use them for guidelines.

            What you say raises more questions than answers.

            Tony.

            60

            • #
              el gordo

              Thanks for that coverage, hopefully Taylor has your insight.

              00

            • #
              Hanrahan

              Having one in NQ makes sense but only if they rule out Collinsville. Is there another coal mine in the north or would they need to go south to Moranbah? I’ll do a bit of a search on northern coal.

              00

      • #
        wal1957

        I see the Coalition winning in a landslide.

        Dream on El Gordo.
        The coalition had ONE chance to restore a bit of faith. They finally got rid of Turnbull, but then have not changed policy! What is with that?
        They are still pandering to the Greens demands and sitting on the fence on policy.
        I am a so-called delcon. Yet the politicians of the coalition party are really the deluded ones.
        I believe Billy Shortone will be the new PM, and not because he is the better choice.
        The reason he will be the new PM is that the Libs have a knack for stuffing up everything they possibly can and turning away from their true base supporters. After 40 years of voting Liberal this will be the first time I will not be voting for them. Possibly ACP will get my vote if they run in my area. I know of many others who think likewise.
        As has been said earlier in this thread, our only hope is for a number of ACP and possibly ON seats in the senate to keep them on their toes.

        The politicians can only blame themselves for the mess this country is in. It is up to the voters now to make change occur.

        40

        • #
          el gordo

          I have never voted for the Liberals, but they should win in a canter because Morrison will attend to the festering soars of energy and immigration.

          The Party has become Labor Lite and for survival he will need a reshuffle, purge the front bench of moderates and replace them with radicals. The best way to restore base is by promoting Kelly and Abbott.

          10

      • #
        Phillthegeek

        I see the Coalition winning in a landslide.

        I see pigs, pink, with wings, capable of speeds up to M1.2. :)

        60

        • #
          el gordo

          Good afternoon comrade, the government will offer the people bread and circuses. Satellite cities connected by a bullet train network and powered by Hele coal fired power stations.

          What have they got to lose?

          20

          • #
            Phillthegeek

            What have they got to lose?

            Credibility and an election. :)

            20

            • #
              el gordo

              If they don’t break with the pseudo Marxist consortium then the Westminster system in Oz could collapse under its own weight.

              The Liberals have to recapture their centre right base and I suspect Morrison will do that with support from the ginger group.

              If the guvmint pulls out of Paris, slashes subsidies on renewables and tenders for Hele, do you think the MSM would go berserk?

              20

            • #
              AndyG55

              They have currently lost their credibility with Liberal/Conservative voters.

              That is why they will probably lose the election.

              A political party needs people to vote FOR them.

              The current Liberal party is still the pseudo-Turnbull green-slime party..

              .. and there are very few votes down that abyss. !!

              30

      • #
        sophocles

        Look at what’s happening to Zambia. Beijing owns the place.

        10

    • #
      yarpos

      You have to wonder what they were thinking. They were losing public support and interest due to previous failed predictions of doom, so what do they do? ratchet it up and go more stupid!! yeah that will win hearts and minds.

      50

  • #
    KinkyKeith

    I feel somewhat the same Peter.

    This blog helps though.

    From it there are new perspectives from which debate on the subject can be approached.

    A sample of this was in a recent thread: http://joannenova.com.au/2018/10/abc-watch-economist-talks-conspiracy-science-to-pretend-journalist/#comment-2062670

    It points to the worrying level of incomplete science in the CAGW meme and to how unlikely it is that we will overheat.

    On the matter of sustainability another good recent post to remind us ;http://joannenova.com.au/2018/10/abc-watch-beyond-fake-headlines-61-of-company-directors-do-not-care-about-climate-change/#comment-2062965

    kk

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  • #
  • #
    Global Cooling

    I am mostly concerned that science is not the key in winning the propaganda war of climate change. The elements of persuasion are known and the left is very good at it. Practically no-one reads the IPCC’s Physical Science documents not to talk about voicing clear conclusions about them. Even in skeptic blogs we are quite nice about the climate models etc.

    First step is to tell everyone that climate change is a political topic which the green oligarchs lobby to earn more. Scientific talking points should be selected based on ease of understanding of the general public. Changing climate is more beneficial than harmful. It is natural, not made of people’s CO2.

    170

    • #
      Ted O'Brien

      The total absence of benefit was a red flag from day one. It’s an ill wind that blows no good, and this one they told us brings none at all. This is nonsense.

      Vladimer Putin stated that a bit of warming might be beneficial in Russia. The following summer we heard of drought and heatwaves and bushfires in Russia. Was that really extraordinary? Or did the propaganda machine decide to counter his statement?

      00

    • #

      “Even in skeptic blogs
      we are quite nice
      about the climate models etc.”

      The so-called confuser models are a pile of steaming
      farm animal waste products that have been making
      wrong forecasts for over 30 years = a total waste of
      taxpayers’ money.

      No one ever called me “quite nice”
      on the subject of climate change

      10

  • #
    GD

    I was about to post this comment when I saw Peter’s comment. Nonetheless, I’ll post anyway.

    Is it just me, or are others here dismayed at how easily the general population has accepted the idea that mankind is destroying the planet?

    There seems to be a general consensus, both in the media and at a local level, that mankind is destroying the planet, whether it be by ‘carbon’, plastic or pollution, or simply by our being here.

    160

    • #
      Roger

      Here’s a simple point to make….

      The IPCC claim a 0.5C temperature rise would be cataclysmic…. that is Historical Illiteracy.

      The Greatest Advances in Civilisation occurred during periods of mankind’s history that were between 1 and 3 C WARMER than today – namely the Medieval Warm Period (1C), the Roman Warm Period around 2C and the Minoan Warm Period which was 2-3C Warmer.

      Civilisation advanced so dramatically during these periods because the temperatures were so benign ……. But the IPCC has to pretend that history does not exist, otherwise if could not spout this warrant nonsense about 0.5C.

      190

      • #
        mikewaite

        Roger a good point that cannot be too often made.
        Starting about 300,000 years ago the Earth,specifically Africa and Eurasia, was the stage for a very important experiment, a race.
        H erectus had begat H heidelbergensis and from that species, H neanderthalensis, in Europe (cold) and H sapiens in Africa (warm)
        evolved.
        Both developed advanced technical skills and large brains.
        It was a parallel race to see who would take over the world.
        The warm species won.

        110

      • #
        GD

        The IPCC claim a 0.5C temperature rise would be cataclysmic…

        I always wonder at the scare that a 0.5C temperature rise would be cataclysmic when here in Victoria we can experience from anything from 0 degrees to 40 degrees.

        130

        • #
          Yonniestone

          A 0.5C increase in my town would be appreciated but sadly would be negated when some cloud cover or change in wind direction occurs. sigh.. :(

          60

        • #
          Annie

          -5/6C to 45/46C hereabouts in Victoria…the latter especially in the period up to the 2009 firestorm.

          60

          • #
            Sambar

            And yes, Annie your temperature ranges are considered about normal in our neck of the woods. I guess you just have to be old enough to have seen the variations over 6 or 7 (or more decades ) The year stage two of the dam wall at Eildon was completed, 1955, it was going to take 7 years to fill. Seven months later the spillway gates opened. A wet year indeed. This year where I live in a low part of the high country, we are about 6 inches short of long term average rain fall, a dry year so far. Fire control and prevention measures are already being implemented.

            60

        • #
          joseph

          GD

          If 40.5 doesn’t scare you half to death could it be you’re suffering from imagination deficiency?

          30

        • #
          theRealUniverse

          cataclysmic…I have posted some REAL cataclysmic… events further down today..have fun. see #26

          10

    • #
      Roger

      @ GD , if you look closely you will NOTE that as fear of AGW (aka Climate Change) have fallen as the earth has resolutely refused to warm as predicted 2 other frighteners have been added.

      It is no coincidence that air pollution and claimed (yet unproven) increases in human mortality rates are being used to bring in policies to ban production of internal combustion engine vehicles.

      The international attack on plastic waste with scares of micro-plastics in the food chain and claimed devastation of sea life is I tended to end the use of plasticsmade from hydrocarbons.

      All 3 pursue the same end – ending the use of fossil fuel.

      The sole purpose of ending fossil fuel use, as various U.N. spokespeople have stated, is to bring about the end of the capitalist industrial model that has So greatly advanced mankind in the last 170 years.

      In short it is being used to achieve an unelected, unaccountable global government which serves the global financial elite whilst imposing socialist-marxism on the rest of us.

      We Brits voted to leave the EU because no matter who you voted for laws were being imposed on us by people we couldn’t elect or change by our votes.

      That is precisely what the U.N. intends to achieve by ending fossil fuels and destroying the developed world’s economies and economic models. That is something that left wing politicians around the world strive towards.

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    • #
      Hasbeen

      I only know one person who believes the global warming scam, my wife. She will not talk about it with anyone, to avoid having arguments, but obviously disagrees with my son & I quite strongly.

      She has not studied any of the science, & I believe bases her belief on an unwillingness to believe our scientific community could be so corrupt it would lie to un on this or any other important matter.

      Her total refusal to even look at the matter makes changing her mind impossible. This probably applies to many quite well educated members of our society.

      130

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Its worth asking questions to expose lack of knowledge…family member or not, people need to understand science cant be replaced by a belief system.

        30

  • #
  • #
    el gordo

    ‘The federal government’s small-scale renewable energy scheme (SRES) — which the competition regulator wants wound down and abolished — will result in the cost of subsidies ballooning by 50 per cent to about $1.8 billion including GST in 2019, according to Sydney-based renewables trader Demand Manager.

    ‘The additional impost amid high electricity prices may accelerate calls for the scheme to be junked as new federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor comes under pressure to reduce household power bills.’

    GWPF

    60

  • #
    Doubtingdave

    I can’t believe that some of you are apparently waithing the wight flag . I have had arguments with many of you , but I respect you all and yet you talk defeatist .we all come to our sceptic conclusions from different paths and don’t want our children to be used in the cult and yet your telling me in this post at least , your going to give in . I just don’t believe it

    50

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Not giving in Dave.

      We have just come to a stage of the battle where we realize something important.

      We need a new battle front.

      Science doesn’t work, reason doesn’t work.

      Maybe focus on the money.

      Renewables Enterprises run by xXxX made $5,000,000 for the happy couple: all of that profit came from a Surcharge on your electricity bills.

      Grab headlines.

      KK

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      • #
        Kinky Keith

        I know of 3 prominent people who have their fingers in the renewables pie.

        120

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          MAlex, probably counts as 2.

          Solar J. Hewson and

          The former Vice Chancellor of our local university.

          60

        • #
          yarpos

          to be fair you could say they are just putting their money where there mouth is

          I invest in coal companies, at the end of the day you actually have to DO something

          10

      • #
        sophocles

        Nature will, eventually, do it for us. Many of us think cooling is coming in. It’s happening. Slowly. Something as large as the Sun works only a little faster than a glacial pace, which, I have to wonder, is probably why the IPCC is trying to panic everyone.

        Well Oi think the Answer loies in the Coycles:

        It was, maybe, cooling from 1860 1900. Wool was a very valuable material. Look at the 1800s fashions: felted woollen hats, coats and trousers, woollen undershirs and so on. That’s just for the men. The ladies were equally well clothed. The 1890s were a bit wintry.

        It was warming from 1900 to 1940, peaking over the 1930s, the last decade (or 11-year period.)

        Then it was cooling (ooh! Ah! We’re going into a new Ice Age!) from 1940-1980. The 1970s were somewhat frosty in winter.

        Now the Earth is gonna melt! It’s gonna all burn up and we’re going to fry, 1980 to 2020.

        We’re right on the cusp of the 2020-2040 cooling.

        Spotted the pattern?

        The one change from here: 2040 – 2080 = maybe f-f-f-Fr-Fr-FREEZING.
        The Solar nadir is expected to be 2030. The 2030-2040 decade may well be increasingly cold. 2030 to 2040 or so is (see D. Evan’s hypothesis) the dreaded c. 11 year delay …

        I’m OK, I’ve got two snow shovels. Not bad for somewhere it only snows for five minutes at 5 am about once every Hale Cycle. No, I do NOT mean the Schwabe Cycle. That’s only half a Hale Cycle.

        For all that:

        NEVER GIVE UP.

        We’ll get to blow the big raspberry yet.

        30

        • #
          sophocles

          After a bit more digging:
          1790 – 1830 was the Dalton Minimum with a following warming. !875 to 1920-5 was the Gleissberg minimum with a low during WW-1 with unpleasant conditions in the trenches. The 1930s warmed, although the winter of 1940 was supposed to be cold. It cooled from there to about 1980
          The 1950s were the time of much atmospheric testing. Around 1959, I remember hearing cooler summers and winters ascribed to the atomic testing. And then there was the press panic about “A New Ice Age in the 1970s.

          That switched to Warming in somewhere around 1983.

          The Solar changes being rung, are just part 1 of our tale of Woe To Come. The planet’s magnetic field is setting up for a magnetic pole swap, officially A Reversal. The field strength of Earth’s magnetic field has weakened significantly over the last 15 years as seen here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsqZJP54shg&t=2526s at c. 9min:30s.)

          There was a magnetic reversal known as the Laschamp Event about 60,000 years ago. There is a large 10Be peak (Cosmic Ray Flux) then. see figure 7. (http://euanmearns.com/cosmic-rays-magnetic-fields-and-climate-change/ ).

          It is quite worrying that the geomagnetic dipole seems to be collapsing just as quickly as it did in the Laschamp event. We cannot exclude the possibility that we are beginning a “geomagnetic winter” that could last 1,000 years and might be colder than at any time since the Holocene began.

          Business as usual with continued Warming and Sea Level rise out to 2100 is looking like a preferred option to what might actually be coming.

          is not quite as slow nor as ordered as planet earth. [https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2018/01/31/magnetic-pole-swapping-and-cooling/ from NASA.]

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            el gordo

            Sophocles I tend too think we are confronted by an Oort Minimum and that the earth will warm again after 2040. You may find this interesting, in comments Willis denies Gleissberg.

            https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/27/svalgaard-paper-reconstruction-of-9000-years-of-solar-activity/

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            • #
              sophocles

              elgordo said @ # 9,1,2.1.1:

              I tend too think we are confronted by an Oort Minimum and that the earth will warm again after 2040.

              As I said before: I’ve thought so too. I note that Ben Davidson thinks cooling well beyond the bottom of the minimum (2030) will be prolonged. I’ve pulled back from warming -> oort-type minimum -> warming resumes (business as usual). The 1060 Oort didn’t have a magnetic pole reversal running at the same time. I don’t think this GSM (Grand Solar Minimum) is going to be as simple or straight forward as that. Planet Earth has poked its own oar in …

              See below at # 9.1.2.1.2 below. Zharkova doesn’t think the solar dynamo will be dormant for long. Just one cycle. The Oort time line was: 1040:1080, so we could reasonably expect something similar—if it was that simple.

              (See: Zharkova, Valentina:
              https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.04482.pdf
              -Reinforcing the double dynamo model with solar-terrestrial activity in the past three millennia.)

              A Point of Interest: Zharkova makes a case for the Sporer Minimum as a GCR Storm rather than a Solar Minimum as originally postulated by Eddy. I’ve got to find time to look at Svalgaard’s new stuff. Thanks. Should be interesting.

              The Laschamp Reversal and Return took place according to one text over approx 440 years and the magnetic field during it was only about 25% of what it had been. That gives the Solar wind almost free rein in our atmosphere. I want to find out more about the Laschamp Reversal and it’s effects. Some of the strangeness in current weather may be from our planetary magnetic field weakening (about 15% from 2000 -2015 and it’s accelerating) and our weather being futzed around. Most of it may be just what happens during the onset of cooling. Trouble is we know so little, thanks to the Institute of Propaganda for Climate Catastrophe. We should know a lot more. </Grumble

              Expletive:
              And I’ve spotted a bad mistake I made: the Laschamp was 41,000 years ago and I put 60,000. Lots of Expletives both Deleted and Undeleted. At the moment I’m checking my sources to see if that was brain fart or typo. I suspect it was one or the other.

              I’m also digging for everything I can find about the Laschamp Reversal.

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          • #
            sophocles

            I couldn’t resist adding this bit from our favourite website https://www.skepticalscience.com/cosmic-rays-and-global-warming-advanced.htm

            Solar magnetic field strength correlates strongly with other solar activity, such as solar irradiance and sunspot number. As is the case with these other solar attributes, solar magnetic field has not changed appreciably over the past three decades

            ah ha. Sure.

            More about the Laschamp Event:
            From http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/journey/europe2.html

            Between 55,000 and 65,000 years ago the world went through a period of almost unremitting cold and dryness.

            another glaciation? Whatever, the Laschamp Event which affected the whole globe, was c. 60,000 Years ago—right in the middle of that period. It lasted for the blink of a geological eye or 250years. Maybe it was so darned cold then, the Laschamp Reversal basically had no effect—the cloud cover being saturated. The Laschamp Reversal was used to try and attack Svensmark’s GCR cooling hypothesis.

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      • #
        Ted O'Brien

        Why not change the language? Others do.

        Two words have risen rapidly through the lexicon in recent times. Respect, which now turns up where you wouldn’t have expected, and disrupt, which took over the field in a matter of weeks.

        It shouldn’t be hard for a team effort to turn “denier” into “realist”, and “denial” to “reality”. A liberal application of “realistic” should boost the job along.

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      Yonniestone

      We all have our moments Dave it’ll pass, more important is how are you going mate?

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    • #
      Rollo

      Nobody is giving in. It’s just that our team is losing to unfair players who have infiltrated schools, universities, governments, churches and now making inroads into corporations.
      My kids (in their late thirties) believe in climate change without any understanding of even the most basic science. They won’t discuss it or even read a book on the subject as they are busy working, paying mortgages and bringing up their kids. Also they are probably worried about what they are going to do with their senile dad who doesn’t believe in “The Science”.

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        Graeme No.3

        Complain about your electricity bill getting higher and blame it on Global Warming Greenies.

        I don’t know how much you use but the average 6MWh per year means that the 7% figure quoted by enthusiasts ‘means’ $127 per annum. Actually once you add in the extra margin put on by the retail suppliers it would be higher than that. From there you might be able to point out that the whole bill is pushing for the WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE Electricity.

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        Neville

        Your kids sound like they are dumb. Why don’t they check the data for themselves, or do they just want to believe in delusional nonsense for the rest of their lives?
        I suppose they vote for the clueless Greens or Labor as well?

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        • #
          el gordo

          Life is not so simple, a lot of people have been brainwashed, Millennials through the education system and women in particular because of the maternal instinct.

          It will take a fierce debate or a sharp drop in world temperatures to get them thinking again.

          Neville I think its time for you to quit the lukewarmers and join the denialati, CO2 is not the cause of global warming.

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    • #
      Annie

      Good to see you back Dave.
      No, not giving in but amazed at the sheer lack of basic commonsense displayed by so many apparently intelligent people and disgusted by the propaganda push in so many places. The warmists have the money which we don’t.

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      • #
        ROM

        We as the human race have been here quite a number of times in the historical past.

        Mostly it has been an extreme quasi religion based reaction to a dire situation, much worse than anything we here in the western world today are experiencing, leading to a very destructive mass hysteria that overcame any sensible discussion and any positive moves to solve or mitigate the dire event that itself that led to the mind bending reaction by the bulk of the populace.

        Read up on the history of the Flagellants and the Black Death, the Great Bubonic Plagues of the 14th century which in Europe peaked between 1347 and 1351 witha global death toll now estimated at between 75 to 200 million people .
        And thats out of a now estimated global population in 1400 of perhaps 600 million people.

        There are parts of France today where using the old monastery records, the population today still hasn’t matched the population density reached prior to the Plagues that swept through in the 14 century.

        And there was more than just one single plague event .
        There was in fact 3 or 4 waves of the Black Plague in that bracket of years which reached and affected the population in various European regions from where most records of the plague originate compared to the known plague pandemic that occurred across all the connected and then civilised parts of Eurasia.

        Western humanity or parts of it that aren’t educated to a level where they can’t differentiate bewtween truth and hyperbole and then be capable of examining their own reactions and ask the appropriate questions of the claims being made by the extremists, are just repeating an age old reaction of the human race to a percieved threat whether real or imagined or invented to gain power and influence for a tiny coterie of radical ethics and morality free opportunists.
        ————

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  • #
    Dennis

    Amateur psephologist former PM Howard has again pointed out that traditionally the major political parties in Australia have shared around 80 per cent of votes, including swinging voters, but now that is down to about 60 per cent.

    Considering the recent five by election results I believe that the share is between 50 and 60 per cent and that many of us view the majors as far too close on too many issues that concern us. Obviously they cooperate on UN agendas and choose to bypass constitutional law relying on UN treaties to implement those agendas without referendum. If they were government and real opposition that could not be done. Consider Section 44 of the Constitution and the diversionary point scoring by both sides relating to dual citizenship. Once the snowball got rolling they ran for cover and there has not been a word since. But are they all now compliant?

    My point is that we need a circuit breaker.

    In 2010 the Gillard Labor Government was forced to form alliances with MPs outside the party to be returned in a minority alliance government, it was a hung parliament situation.

    If enough voters choose researched by them to be trustworthy minor party or independent candidates for the House of Representatives for primary vote that would deny the major parties money from the Electoral Commission. By placing major party candidates last a strong message of dissatisfaction with them would be delivered. And for the Senate vote for a minor party team.

    In the past I would have been opposed to creating a chaos parliament situation but now we have no other choice because the major parties are close to being one.

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    • #
      Global Cooling

      Popular uprising is in progress globally: UK, USA, Eastern Europe, Italy. Brazil maybe next. Hope that it continues peacefully. Corrupt politicians are voted out. Constitutions are refined to demolish the political class and keeping the MEPs real representatives of the people. Deficiency of democracy in EU and US will be addressed by firing the deep state.

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      Kinky Keith

      Important.

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    • #
      Dennis

      Under preferential voting, candidates can finish third, and theoretically lower, and still come through to win on preferences. However, it is quite rare for candidates to win from 3rd place, with only half a dozen instances since 1949.

      Anthony Green

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    Doubtingdave

    Thanks for asking yonnie , can’t talk about family issues at moment but keeping eye on close friend dying of cancer . What bothers me about this post , is how we stop western culture based on Judea Christian values from being destroyed by a socialist Marxist based globalst new world order , a new feudal system

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    • #
      Annie

      I really don’t know the answer to that Dave. We have to keep soldiering on the best we can…’cultivate our own small gardens’..so to speak.
      I’m sorry about your friend; a harrowing time still for you.

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    • #
      Yonniestone

      That’s ok as long as you look after yourself first Dave, as you correctly outline the attack has been under way for some time I believe Australian’s still have the capability of rising en masse and making big changes, unfortunately the uprising will only work if it has positive democratic goals and not purely based upon spontaneous emotion as the current Marxists will twist anything to a social advantage as long as they control the positions of power.

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    Doubtingdave

    ROME WAS NOT BUILT IN A DAY , AS THEY SAY , BUT IT TOOK A THOUSAND YEARS AND REFORMATION TO DESTROY IT , ARE YOU GOING TO LET IT TAKE BACK CONTROL OF YOUR CHILDREN’S LIVES IN THE FORM OF GLOBALIZATION ,WITHOUT A FIGHT

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  • #
    RickWill

    The 800MW SA-NSW grid interconnection is on its way. This report shows how easy it is to wrap delusional analysis into something resembling an economic project:
    https://www.electranet.com.au/wp-content/uploads/projects/2016/11/2018-07-06-SAET-PADR-Final.pdf
    Figure 11 on page 84 shows estimated savings. About 30% of the savings is the reduction in gas usage in SA (because coal generation is cheaper than gas). Another 25% is the benefit of not needing to install other transmission lines to wind farms in northern Victoria. Then there is another 25% saving by avoiding generator fixed costs in SA.

    These benefits all relate to South Australia. There are benefits touted for NSW down the track but it is based on gas replacing coal generators when they are retired.

    What is not analysed is the damage that 800MW of intermittency will inflict on the NSW market. NSW will become an 800MW battery of infinite capacity for South Australia to use as the wind blows or doesn’t. It will destroy the economics of coal fired stations in NSW.

    This is a great con job – an illusion. Of course Transgrid in NSW are supporting this because they will spend the bulk of the money and have a guaranteed return. They will just jack up the transmission charges that consumers eventually pay.

    There is no one making a proper analysis of this. It is all predicated on CO2 emission reduction as the only priority. It will guarantee higher prices in NSW. SA will benefit by reduction in gas generation there and more income from LGCs and power sales by avoiding wind generation curtailment.

    The consumers in NSW should be protesting loudly about the prospect of this emerging disaster for their power supply and power prices.

    South Australians are installing solar panels and batteries to get lower power costs because of astronomic grid prices. That it taking market share away from wind generators in SA. They need access to the NSW market so they can continue to generate when the wind blows and wreak economic havoc in NSW as they have achieved in SA and Victoria.

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    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Great outline Rick.

      This is NOT Government.

      We have been turned into Slaves working for the South Australian government.

      Ethics, Morality what do they mean anymore?

      You won’t find a skerrick of Ethical Behaviour in either of the two main partis: libl or laba, equally on the nose.

      KK

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    • #
      Robber

      The fake news that is spread by rent seekers is depressing, and no person in government employ or politics ever stands up and tells it like it is.
      The reality is that intermittent wind/solar must always be costed with full backup for when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun isn’t shining.
      So current policies result in duplicate investment. Once to build the wind/solar generators, and once more to ensure there is 100% backup with reliable coal/gas/diesel/hydro. Not to forget the alternative of some massive batteries able to supply say 50% of 24,000 MW for at least 12 hours – that’s over 1,000 SA “big batteries”.
      Email your local member today.

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    • #
      Ted O'Brien

      How much power is lost in transmission? And how long will this line be?

      In the 1980s the NSW Electricity Commission built a 500kv line from Bayswater to Mt Piper. They made it 55 km longer to avoid going through the Wollemi national park.

      For about 20 years they only loaded it to 330 kv. Then they jacked it up to 500 kv. I was too deaf to hear it, but younger people told me that the line was crackling on a humid day. We heard the noise before we knew about the new voltage.

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  • #
    Mark M

    Don’t despair.

    The climate bed-wetters are the archetypical crazy man on the street corner claiming the end is nigh.

    You can wrestle the pig in its mud over 0.5°, but, ask them how it is proof of their failed warming doomsday, and get ready to laugh.

    Laughter, it really is the best medicine.

    And there is nothing funny about an apocalypse unless you’re laughing at their crazy-eye failed predictions.

    It was never about the science.

    Take low-info guy Prince Harry, who takes completely unnecessary fossil fuel-guzzling trip to Fiji, then tries to sell the BS idea that using fossil energy causes “ferocious cyclones” to hit Fiji …

    Prince Harry highlights daily threat of climate change on visit to Fiji

    “Britain’s Prince Harry said on Wednesday climate change was a daily threat for the people of Fiji, and announced scholarships to study the problem, as he toured, with his wife Meghan, the South Pacific nation on the front line of global warming.”

    https://www.euronews.com/2018/10/24/prince-harry-highlights-daily-threat-of-climate-change-on-visit-to-fiji

    Does the stupid go to 11?

    Yes, it does, thanks to the flying fickled finger of fate, as if you need reminding with full TV coverage, they are travelling in a 21st century fossil-fuelled marvel, and the infrastructure, it saves their lives!

    Harry and Meghan Markle’s plane forced to abort landing attempt on return to Sydney

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-26/harry-meghan-markle-plane-forced-to-abort-landing/10435054

    Even our resident red-fingerer would laugh at that.

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  • #
    RickWill

    Battery prices are of keen interest to me. I own a big roof that already has 6kW of solar panels. I have had a 5kW lithium battery in operation since 2012. Some of my load is off-grid and the prospect of going fully off grid is something I contemplate but it relies on battery prices to make it economic.

    This is what CSIRO have predicted with regard to battery prices in 2017:
    https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP178771&dsid=DS2
    Figure 3-12 has prices down to $100/kWh by 2020. If I could get a 10+ life out of a 10kWh battery that cost $1000 I would do it tomorrow.

    Sadly reality shows just how wrong CSIRO can be:
    https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/sonnen-battery-update-review/
    The prices in this review are near the bottom of the linked page. It states current price for a 10kWh battery is $12,800. So CSIRO are out by a factor of 12.

    What everyone needs to realise is that the cost estimates in the Finkel review were from CSIRO. Battery storage was a key pillar in Finkel’s grid of the future. In fact storage costs are about half of the system cost in that future grid. If the cost estimates for batteries are out by a factor of 12, what does it mean for the cost of electricity from that future grid!

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    • #
      Mark M

      1988, CSIRIO’s Top Scientist Predicted 2-4 C Warming By 2018

      https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/05/13/csirios-top-scientist-predicted-2-4-c-warming-by-2018/

      CSIRO 1986, 50-year weather forecast: warm, becoming hot

      ” Dr Brian Tucker, chief of CSIRO’s Atmospheric Research, said a huge research effort in Australia in the past five (5) years had confirmed the the levels of carbon dioxide, methane and fluorocarbons were on the rise and would lead to the so-called “greenhouse effect, lifting temperatures by as much as
      3 degrees in the next two decades, and by as much as 5 degrees in 50 years.”

      https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/118126098

      JULY 11 2008 CSIRO: Petrol ‘could cost $8 a litre by 2018′

      http://www.smh.com.au/national/petrol-could-cost-8-a-litre-by-2018-20080710-3dc1.html

      2004, The IPCC (and CSIRO) relied heavily on the Mann paper in coming to their global warming conclusions.
      The paper’s climate curve was nicknamed the “hockey stick”: relatively flat from 1550 to 1900, with a sharp rise as greenhouse warming lifted global average temperatures.

      http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/01/16/1073878029212.html

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      • #
        theRealUniverse

        ‘fluorocarbons’ thats another great swindle that occured in the 80′s. The (totally fake) CFC scare, the Ozone layer will cease to exist unless we stop refrigerant now! Based on one flawed paper the ludites grabbed it and that was the end of a really good refrigerant, now we have to use a less efficient one that has no CFC. The mechanism that transports the CFCs to the ozone layer was not verified. A top Ionospheric scientist told me that the ozone layer was probably doing what it always had been doing for millennia.

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        The CSIRO should be made to have a big sign out the front with these dud predictions on them .

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    • #
      Graeme#4

      Rick, was reading an article in The Oz this morning where a commenter stated that he only had an 8% drop off in solar system efficiency after 18 years. I would have thought that by then the solar system would have been down to 50% or less. What’s your experience?

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      • #
        RickWill

        My grid connected system went in in 2010. The average yearly output is 3085kWh. Output for the last year was 2344kWh. It is nominally a 3kW system but peak output was recorded at 3376W. It does not record the yearly peak but I saw over 3kW this year.

        The solar exposure goes up and down somewhat from year-to-year but not 20%:
        http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=086299&p_nccObsCode=203&p_month=13
        Also trees grow and get bigger unless lopped. A neighbour’s tree takes out some of the morning sun but it has not changed much over the years. I also have three needle pines that cast a shadow over some panels for some time in the winter months. Also I am not sure how the unit calculates a year; whether a reading today is a full year or it could be as little as 11 months. I might update the yearly figure if it gets higher.

        Panel performance may be dropping off but I suspect it is more shade. Last year was the first time I noticed the shadow of the needle pines reaching the panels. It does not take much shade to knock out an array. I have two arrays on the on-grid system.

        Will be interesting to see what happens next year and I will be watching the shadows. I have not yet quantified the impact of the shadow of the needle pines on the system. I have observed total loss of output on a friend’s boat when the shadow of the mast crosses the panels. So only a small fraction of the array covered but it kills the output.

        My off-grid system doddled through the 2018 winter. I do not recall the battery being below 50%. In its 6 years of operation there have been two days when the system shut down on low battery voltage as a result of consecutive cloudy days. I have noticed some yellowing of the filing rubber between the solar cells on two of the off-grid panels bought at the same time. It is an ageing issue that may eventually cause a problem.

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        • #
          Peter C

          Rick,

          Do you think it is getting more cloudy? I suppose not if your solar output is staying much the same.

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          • #
            RickWill

            Peter C
            If it was getting more cloudy then the BoM link I provided above would show a reducing trend in insolation. It has been near steady at 15MJ/day/Sq.m (173w/sq,m) since 2010 without any clear trend. {It is a pity we don’t get back radiation in Australia}

            I looked at a few other places. Perth has a slight downward trend in insolation this century indicating an increase in cloud cover:
            http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=009225&p_nccObsCode=203&p_month=13
            Other capitals show a dip in 2010/11 so likely higher cloud cover then. That is consistent with flooding in those years.

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            • #
              Graeme#4

              Your comment about increasing cloud cover in Perth is interesting, as I believe that Perth’s cloud cover has definitely increased in the last two years, especially in summer.

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        • #
          yarpos

          I wonder if there is a solar array anywhere on planet earth that has ever produced its rated output?

          20

          • #
            RickWill

            Mine exceeds its rated output for at least a few seconds on a few days each year. The circumstances are on a cool mid-summer day that is mostly cloudy but with breaks in the cloud. When panels are cool they will always produce above their rated output when in good working order because the ratings are given at 25C and 1000kW/sq.m sunlight.

            I have seen the output from the 55MW solar generator near Broken regularly at its 55MW rating.

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          • #
            yarpos

            I’m surprised Rick, I would have thought the combined effects of age, contamination and latitude would be enough for it never to occur, except for new panels on the equator.

            Re Broken Hill I guess you have to know whats actually installed. The 55MW nameplate may be the result of 60MW of panels. If so it would at least show a degree of honesty.

            Interesting observations on your own system. We have never seen better than 90% , however we are a long way south.

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            • #
              RickWill

              Panel output is usually given for the conditions of solar flux of 1000W/sq.m and 25C. The peak solar output here on earth is typically 1370W/sq.m and a clear atmosphere will knock out about 14% so the peak at ground level can be up around 1200W/sq.m. So a panel in good condition located in a cool region facing the sun should give more than rated output under clear conditions.

              My on-grid panels are fixed angle at 26 degrees tilt, with one array facing northeast and the other facing northwest. The tilt angle is close to direct facing in the middle pf summer. With my off-grid system I have one of the three 1kW arrays tilted at 45 degrees. That array performs well in winter.

              If you look at the linked data you will see that tracking arrays are more dependent on cloudiness than latitude. For example the worst month for Geraldton is 6.19 hours of sunshine compared with Cairns at 5.47 hours. In fact Cairns minimum is not much higher than Sydney minimum at 5.22 hours.
              https://www.rpc.com.au/pdf/Solar_Radiation_Figures.pdfsolar panels rated at 1000

              Point is the difference between rated performance and actual peak is dependent on orientation. If oriented favourably any panel will produce more than its rated output under clear skies.

              The solar insolation figures from BoM would be collected from a flat sensor.

              Panels located at high latitudes, set up for winter conditions, take up a lot of real estate because they cast long shadows. That was something I learnt when I set up my last 1kW array to maximise the winter input.

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              • #
                Graeme No.3

                Rick Will,
                my solar system also exceeded its claimed capacity on occasions when new. Now, 8 years later, it doesn’t get over 92%.
                Also the output will depend on the clarity of the air, dust may not seem to have any effect but years ago the CSIRO measured output reduced to 540-750W/sq.m. in the NT (near Tennant Creek I think).

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          Graeme#4

          Thanks for the detailed info Rick, very useful. It always helps to have factual real-time unbiased info about home solar arrays.

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        8% drop off after 18 years is horse hockey ,I’ve even heard solar owners claim they’re panels produce electricity at night time because each one has an inverter on the panel .
        Some people will believe anything and I’ve heard many weird and wonderfull claims over the years including free energy but I put the 8% claim right up there with the rest of the tin foil hat claims .

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        • #
          Graeme#4

          I felt that too Robert, but since I don’t have home solar, I couldn’t argue against it. Rick seems to be the only person I know who keeps accurate data on their system performance. I do know a gent that has put in a solar system for his business and converted all his lighting to LEDs. His comment to me was that the system is viable, but only with subsidies.

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    • #
      James Murphy

      but but but…battery technology is evolving so fast, solar panels are getting cheaper, and more efficient, and Elon Musk says it’s good…
      (Really though, I see nothing inherently wrong with solar power +/- batteries, but I do wish it was not subsidised by various levels of government.)

      I’m yet to get an answer from anyone with, or contemplating solar power to, as they say “save the environment”:
      Does it seem reasonable that individuals spend thousands of dollars (not including subsidies) on extra hardware to provide the same, or lesser quality of service than was available without such hardware for decades previously…?

      20

      • #
        RickWill

        If you own a roof it makes sense to have solar. Your poor neighbours will subsidies the energy from your system at a quarter of the rate they will subsidise grid connected wind or solar. So you are saving them money as well as the savings you make.

        Grid connected wind and solar is a reality and I do not see anyone in government willing to change that. Look at how Angus Taylor has changed his tune in just three weeks once he entered the swamp. It does not make economic sense on a grid scale to connect wind and solar but if YOU install solar you reduce the opportunity for the big boys and help your neighbours who cannot afford it. The rooftops in SA are starting to bite into the profits of the SA wind generators and they desperately need the 800MW link into NSW to avoid increasing instances of output curtailment.

        Last Sunday, rooftops in SA supplied more than 50% of the grid demand for 3 hours:
        https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgwyxgtFxVG7pf2Xq
        Also last Sunday the wind generators in SA had their output limited for most of the daylight hours.

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    el gordo

    ‘Over the past decades, atoll islands exhibited no widespread sign of physical destabilization in the face of sea‐level rise. A reanalysis of available data, which cover 30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands, reveals that no atoll lost land area and that 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted.’

    V Duvat 2018

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    beowulf

    Greetings to all Comrades in the Chinese Semi-Autonomous Region of Victoriastan. My but you have an outstanding government. Our corrupt, incompetent NSW government could take lessons in advanced corruption and stupidity from yours. Your Dear Leader, Comrade Andrews has signed you up to the Chinese One Belt, One Road global takeover scam.
    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2018/10/andrewscfmeu-government-sign-up-to-communist-chinas-global-one-road-plans.html

    Then you apparently have 21 Labor MPs under investigation for political rorting and a premier ordering police to go easy on them, in contravention of normal police procedures naturally — that’s if they even deign to be interviewed about their alleged nefarious dealings. Given their treatment, one could almost be forgiven for thinking they were “of African appearance”.
    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2018/10/victoria-police-told-to-go-easy-on-labor-mps-in-fraud-investigation.html

    Then you’ve got your impending power price hike and a high likelihood of summer blackouts. How lucky can one state be? Queensland is beckoning. It might have an idiot in charge but at least it has coal power on tap.

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    • #
      yarpos

      “Queensland is beckoning. It might have an idiot in charge but at least it has coal power on tap.”

      for how long? this is Straya! we can screw anything up! oi,oi, oi!

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      robert rosicka

      For the insult to our glorious leader you will be sent to a gulag near you for re-education at the hands of the SeeFMEU.

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    • #
      RickWill

      Comrade beowulf you may have gloating rights at the moment but as you gloat your network provider is seeking funds to hook you up to the wondrous rotating symbols of stupidity in SA. Fortunately for Victoria the damage is limited to 600MW of intermittency. They are seeking to inflict greater damage in NSW with 800MW of intermittency. Your Transgrid are all for this because they will spend the bulk of the capital and are guaranteed a return on whatever it costs. They more they spend, the more they make.

      Comrade beowulf, as you are an electricity consumer in NSW you need to be prepared to have your hip pocket nerve feel some pain. It is in a good cause though. You will be improving the profits of the wind generators in SA and saving the poor consumers there a few dollars a year (initially). In addition you will reduce the cost of connection for all the rotating symbols of stupidity in the Murray region of Victoriastan to further increase intermittent generation.

      You State government has limited ability to alter the destruction of the economics of your power network. Once the link is done the insidious intermittency will work away at the economics of your coal generators and they will go the way of Hazelwood sooner rather than later. Your future is South Australia. They are calling the tune. NSW is but a puppet.

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      • #
        beowulf

        I wasn’t gloating at all Rick, merely commenting on the political morass of VIC, of which I was in awe. Among all the states, VIC does seem to be in a class of its own politically these days. It even makes SA look conservative.

        Re the power situation, you don’t have to convince me that power armageddon is coming for all of us. I keep up with your other posts . . . and Robber and TonyfromOz, and the many others with electrical credentials here.

        Every day I give thanks for the 1GW of QLD coal power that keeps NSW afloat after a perfectly functional 590MW coal power station like Wallerawang (with main plant installation in 1980) was shut down in 2014 to make way for wind power due to “reduced energy demand” and “high operating costs”. How can we have reduced energy demand when we were/are importing lignite power from VIC and black coal power from QLD every day? Most days in summer and winter we suck almost 1GW out of QLD. So much for reduced demand.

        NSW is already a sitting duck for blackouts. We don’t require any new SA interconnector to kick us over the edge. The management of Tomago aluminium smelter not far from where I am will be chewing their fingernails all summer, waiting for the dreaded call to shut down pot lines again.

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  • #
    RickWill

    There is nothing simple about the Earth’s atmosphere. That said I know for certain that warm ocean has more water vapour in the atmosphere above it than cooler ocean.

    I found this paper that provides verification of the MODIS data I have used to conclude the global TPW has declined this century:
    https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/5/174/htm
    It compares two independent sources determining atmospheric water vapour including radiosonde data.

    The most interesting aspect for me is Figure 9:
    https://res.mdpi.com/atmosphere/atmosphere-09-00174/article_deploy/html/images/atmosphere-09-00174-g009.png
    This compares the change in total precipitable water in the decade from 2007 to 2016. It is immediately apparent that the majority of the tropical oceans have less water vapour over them in 2016 than in 2007.

    Surely if ocean surface temperature was rising then there would be more water vapour over the oceans!

    Given that water vapour is the most powerful so-called greenhouse gas surely knocking out an average of 200ppm from the atmosphere over the tropical oceans in the last decade would offset the 30ppm rise in CO2 over the same period!

    Another interesting aspect of the paper is this part of the conclusion:

    It is found that PWs show uptrends over land and downtrends over oceans in the last 10 years, implying the widespread increase of water vapor in the troposphere over land. The long-term increasing trends in PW for the US region are assumed to be consistent with the increases in temperature [8]. In addition, the variations in some of the regional PW time series indicate that the known modes of variability such as NAO [18] and ENSO [19] may also explain a portion of PW variability.

    Note the effort taken to avoid stating that the PW over the oceans had reduced over the decade while the increase over land was consistent with higher temperature!

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    • #
      Peter C

      If the World’s Oceans are warming then it seems very doubtful that PW would decrease at the same time.

      Therefore I am doubtful about either:
      1. Oceans are warming
      2. Modis data that says the PW is decreasing
      3. All of the above.

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      • #
        RickWill

        I have used the MODIS data:
        https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=MYDAL2_M_SKY_WV

        The paper is based on other satellite data and radiosonde so verifies what I have determined using MODIS. In fact the paper makes details comparisons between the data sets it references and concludes they are similar although not identical.

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        • #
          Peter C

          ok,
          Tropical oceans are cooling!

          Total Precipitable Water is calculated from the relative humidity, integrated over height by our BOM balloon flights. the BOM publishes the data each day. The TPW is given in the top right corner.
          http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/observations/aerological-diagrams/

          The link should take you to the map page, then click on each circle to see the latest balloon flight from that location.

          I note the Giles, WA has just had 24mm rain over the past 2 days. It could be interesting to compare the temperatures in the week before and the week after the rain. It may give an indication of the cooling affect of atmospheric PW. I note that today (after the rain) temps are lower.

          20

          • #
            Peter C

            Link Works!

            Have a look.

            It may not mean much to readers who do not follow the Atmospheric Soundings, but there is a lot of information there!

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  • #
    Mark M

    Someone turn down that carbon (sic) tax …

    Factbox: Carbon tax around the world

    Finland introduced the world’s first carbon tax in 1990, initially with exemptions for specific sectors or fuels.

    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2013/07/16/factbox-carbon-tax-around-world

    Heavy snow brings traffic chaos in Finland

    https://www.iceagenow.info/heavy-snow-brings-traffic-chaos-in-finland/

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    Peter C

    US Mid Term Elections less than 2 Weeks Away!

    Millions of voters will soon go to the polls across the US, but they won’t be picking a president. The impact of the midterm elections, however, could be almost as significant.

    President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot, but the results will be a referendum on the polarizing US leader, his policies and the Republican politicians who have tied their fortunes to his. President Trump could have more power or less in Washington by the end of Election Day.
    The elections are on Tuesday, November 6, but lots of people will have already voted by then because early voting is a thing in the US, where about 40% of ballots were cast before Election Day in 2016.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/27/politics/us-midterm-election-explainer-intl-trnd/index.html

    Donald Trump is holding Rally after Rally right now because people are voting right now.

    If the Democrat Blue Wave comes about and they are swept into majorities in the House and the Senate, then I will become very despondent and dis-heartened.

    But I don’t think that is going to happen.

    Neither does the Pointman!
    https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2018/10/25/the-democrats-one-stupid-move-after-another/

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    el gordo

    The Guardian is on its knees.

    ‘Justin Trudeau has shown great climate leadership in following through with this carbon tax. Hopefully Canadians will reward him in next year’s elections.

    ‘Note: this will be our final entry on Climate Consensus – the 97%. The Guardian has decided to discontinue its Science and Environment blogging networks. We would like to thank this great paper for hosting us over the past five years, and to our readers for making it a worthwhile and rewarding endeavor.’

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    pat

    last nite, ABC RN broadcast BBC’s The Naked Scientists as usual.
    the good Lord Professor Martin Rees features for about 6mins from about 6mins in, about his latest book, “On the Future”.

    he doesn’t say anything different to what he told ABC’s Robyn Williams on The Science Show earlier in the month. (see transcript for that below)

    AUDIO: 23 Oct: The Naked Scientists: Catalysts: Our Tiny Chemists
    https://www.thenakedscientists.com/

    6 Oct: ABC The Science Show: Martin Rees – On the Future, Prospects for Humanity
    TRANSCRIPT:
    Robyn Williams: Looking at your book, I’m struck by the fact that there are some authors, and you mention them in your book, Steve Pinker is one of them, Matt Ridley, whom you don’t mention, is another, who write about how things are going terribly well. If you analyse some of the indicators, it seems as if progress, even with violence, even with war we are getting on all right…

    Martin Rees: I think those books are half right and I think the recent Pinker book with all his graphs are very impressive, and there’s no gainsaying that we’ve made huge progress in health, diet, life expectancy and all these things which are important, and this is due to technology, without which we couldn’t be looking after 7 billion people as well, even as we can now. So I think there’s no denying that we’ve benefited hugely. But I think there are two respects in which I would add an extra gloss to what they say. First, Pinker in particular thinks we are making ethical progress, and that I’m sceptical about because it’s true that our lives are better than those in mediaeval times when it was pretty miserable. But in mediaeval times there wasn’t much they could do about it, whereas now there is a very big gap between the way the world actually is and the much better way it actually could be. For instance, the top 60 people in the world in terms of wealth could make a huge difference to the life of the entire bottom billion in the world. And so there’s a huge gap. And so I think we can’t claim any ethical progress, in my opinion…
    I think they make exaggerated claims about ethical advance and I also think they completely overlook this new set of risks which is very threatening because our society is very brittle, very vulnerable, very interconnected…

    Robyn Williams: Risk is very important, isn’t it, because the one thing that is extraordinary about many of the people who deny climate change especially and other risks is that they’re doing it in an absolute way, they are dismissing it saying, ‘no, that’s left-wing, no, I’m not convinced’, as if it’s an all-or-nothing question, whereas most of us in life, with insurance for our cars, our houses and whatever, do a proportional thing; yes, we think that’s about 75% or that’s about 45%…

    Martin Rees: …And that’s why, in my opinion, the best way we can minimise the risk of dangerous climate change, crossing tipping points by the end of the century, is to accelerate research and development into all forms of carbon free energy. Because if we spend more on those we will accelerate the time when we have efficient alternatives to fossil fuel burning, and the costs will come down.

    And if we think of India, for instance, where at the moment lots of people get their energy from burning wood or dung on stoves, which is very unhealthy, and they clearly need more energy to develop, then what we want to do is to ensure that they can afford to ***leapfrog directly to some kind of clean energy without building coal-fired power stations, which they otherwise would do. So I think that the most important and most realistic way in which we can hope to reduce the risk of long-term climate change is to accelerate R&D into clean energy. This is a win-win situation because the countries that develop it first will have the economic lead. And if it’s cheaper to have solar energy and energy storage et cetera than to have coal-fired power stations, then that’s good for India and other countries which clearly need to expand their energy consumption…
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/martin-rees—on-the-future,-prospects-for-humanity/10343486

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    • #
      pat

      should have noted the ABC Science Show Martin Rees transcript is lengthy as it was a 19-min-plus interview. read all or listen if you wish.

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    pat

    ***no he doesn’t, but never mind:

    Updated 12 Oct: Turnbull ***reveals why Great Barrier Reef Foundation was given grant
    by AAP/SBS
    Mr Turnbull’s response to questions from Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson, who is looking into the funding allocation, has been made public…
    He had been asked to appear before a Senate inquiry, which is due to hand down its report on Tuesday.
    But with Mr Turnbull holidaying in the United States after quitting politics, he wrote to Senator Whish-Wilson instead.

    Mr Turnbull was unable to give a firm answer about why the foundation was singled out for the grant…READ ON
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/turnbull-reveals-why-great-barrier-reef-foundation-was-given-grant

    AUDIO: 2min17sec: 25 Oct: 2GB: Ben Fordham: Malcolm Turnbull to meet with Great Barrier Reef Foundation… in Bali
    Just when you thought Turnbull’s Bali trip couldn’t stir up any more scandal…
    The former prime minister will travel to Bali to represent the Morrison government at a climate change conference and it’s now been revealed Mr Turnbull will meet with officials (LINK) from the Great Barrier Foundation.
    “Isn’t this just delicious,” says Ben Fordham.
    “As if the controversy wasn’t big enough.”

    Senator Kristina Keneally says it’s “very extraordinary”.
    “Last year they only had six employees and $8 million in the bank. Now they’ve got half a billion of our money, taxpayer funds… and they’re off to Bali to save the world apparently.”
    https://www.2gb.com/malcolm-turnbull-to-meet-with-great-barrier-reef-foundation-in-bali/

    26 Oct: SMH: ‘Silenced’: Leading reef research centre faces axe after funding miss
    By Peter Hannam
    One of the world’s premier coral reef research centres has failed to secure Australian Research Council funding, placing in doubt the science hub even as the Great Barrier Reef faces another bout of bleaching.
    The council confirmed in Senate estimate on Thursday that the Townsville-based Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies missed out on even making the funding shortlist for its next round of funding…
    A researcher said staff had recently been informed by email that the centre had failed to secure funding. Existing money – including a seven-year grant issued in 2014 – should last until at least August 2021, the email stated…

    Charlie Veron, a retired marine biologist known as the “godfather of coral”, said he was surprised the centre had lost its funding, saying they “basically deserved it”.
    Dr Veron blamed the $443.4 million grant to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation announced by the Turnbull government in April that “had upset the apple cart in every direction … I see damage absolutely everywhere.”…
    Federal Labor has said it will claw back any unspent money from the foundation if it wins power next year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/silenced-leading-reef-research-centre-faces-axe-after-funding-miss-20181026-p50c41.html

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    • #
      Dennis

      There is much more to the $444 million grant by the Turnbull Government to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation.

      Apparently public service advice was not to make a grant so large and to pay the agreed amount over a number of years in instalments. But the Turnbull Government ignored the advice and went ahead.

      And since Prime Minister Morrison has taken responsibility based on being Treasurer at the time.

      In other words is prepared to cop the flack?

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        I’m just wondering if there’s an end game to the large grant to a small outfit ? , seems there’s no money left for the other trough gouging snouts .

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    • #
      yarpos

      Funny isnt it that when somebody else gets the money, there is “damage”

      10

  • #
    Dennis

    Something all Australians should know, from The Outsiders this morning.

    Senator John Stone who is a former public service head of Treasury Department Australia has been trying to get information on the UN Compact on Migrants and getting nowhere with public servants, including Immigration and Foreign Affairs. Nobody is prepared to confirm or deny that Australia will sign it.

    The Compact signing is scheduled by the UN for December 2018.

    If this treaty is signed, and another ignoring our constitutional law right to a referendum, the UN will effectively take control of immigration, sovereignty lost again.

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    • #
      Kinky Keith

      How many such “compacts” are we signed up for?

      Has the U.N. done anything useful or ethical in the last 20 years?

      Why are we still in the U.N. apart from the obvious reasons of giving our obsolete and on the nose politicians a place to hang out and feel impotent.

      KK

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    • #
      Peter C

      That is not good.

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  • #
    pat

    many commenting here talk of the need for a new conservative party.
    for a truly Orwellian ABC take on that idea, listen to the following (audio download wasn’t available until today):

    AUDIO: 27 Oct: ABC Saturday Extra: Do we need a new political party?
    Andrew West (RN Religion & Ethics Report, standing in for Geraldine Doogue)
    The Liberal Party has identified ten seats that could suffer the same backlash as Wentworth at the next election. These seats are in economic conservative yet socially progressive electorates around the country. Is there a need for a new political party to accommodate these voters?
    Guest:
    Chris Wallace, former Canberra Press Gallery journalist, biographer and historian at the National Centre of Biography at the ANU.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/where-do-socially-progressive-liberals-cast-their-vote/10429594

    Wikipedia Christine Wallace
    She is currently an Australian Research Council DECRA fellow at the National Centre of Biography, Australian National University…
    Her publications include biographies of John Hewson (1993)…
    Wallace was a member of the Canberra Press Gallery and worked for a wide range of print and electronic media outlets including The Australian, The Australian Financial Review, Business Review Weekly, ABC Television, 666 ABC Canberra and Adelaide radio station 5AA…
    Wallace is married to ***Michael Costello, former senior Australian public servant.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christine_Wallace

    ***it’s a small world. on 24 Oct, I posted on jo’s “Midweek Unthreaded” about Michael Costello. never heard of him prior to then. he was, in fact, ACTING Ambassador at the time:

    24 Oct: ClimateChangeNews: Malta’s foreign minister was the first to put climate change on the agenda at the UN General Assembly on this day, 30 years ago.
    “My government decided to take action at this session of the General Assembly due to the urgent need to conserve climate in the interests of mankind by protecting it against negative man-made changes,” he said, according to the transcript (LINK WITH RESPONSES BY SIR CRISPEN TICKELL, ***MICHAEL COSTELLO AUSTRALIA’S AMBASSADOR TO THE UN, ETC)…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/10/24/time-capsule-30-years-ago-malta-put-climate-un-agenda/

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  • #
    pat

    comment in moderation.

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  • #
    TdeF

    In this month’s National Geographic, another disappointing issue full of distortions, perhaps the worst is the DATA SHEET bar chart graph labelling Australia as having far lower air quality at 35.5 than any other country of high GDP, with the exception of oil processing Kuwait. It is shown as well into ‘unhealthy’ and the end of the bar is labelled Hobart. Maybe 5x worse than the UK, New Zealand, Australia and far worse than Canada and even the US.

    So you would think tropical Hobart with its refineries and smelters and dense population sweltering through a torrid summer of no wind is one of the worst places in the world to live for air quality.

    Hobart at 42 South is in the roaring forties, completely open in a wide river valley with an average summer temperature of 20C and an average wind speed of 20km/hr it cannot possibly be one of the worst places in the world for air pollution? Tasmania has no coal based electricity and mainly runs on hydroelectricity. It is also 1% of Australia, but the whole country is slimed as the worst high GDP place in the world to live.

    Who writes this stuff and presents it as fact?

    Then an article on the incarceration of 120,000 American Japanese during WWII. A whole article printed on black paper as a blot on the nation. One quote from an 89 year old “I think it was probably because of prejudice: I don’t know”. In fact it was a real scare with the Black Hand active in Japanese communities in both California and Brazil. Many Brazilian ships were sunk in transit, allegedly because of routes given by Japanese fishermen. German Submarines were slower than ships and needed routes and times. While 260,000 young Americans were killed in WWII, the scare was real and not based entirely on prejudice as implied.

    While I have supported National Geographic for a lifetime, this social justice warrior stuff is not only pushing Climate Change but deliberately distorting history to make out America to be a villainous place. It is so wrong.

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    • #
      Rollo

      Did they really single out Hobart for having polluted air??

      The Cape Grim station is positioned just south of the isolated north-west tip (Woolnorth Point) of Tasmania. It is in an important site, as the air sampled arrives at Cape Grim after long trajectories over the Southern Ocean, under conditions described as ‘baseline’. This baseline air is representative of a large area of the Southern Hemisphere, unaffected by regional pollution sources (there are no nearby cities or industry that would contaminate the air quality).

      from CSIRO

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  • #
    theRealUniverse

    Just for the worriers!
    Potential geophysical/astrophysical REAL disasters, outside the so called ‘climate disaster’ that would wipe us out or cause major losses of life or continents.

    Astrophysical:
    1. Extraterrestrial impactor. Asteroid or comet. (moderate probability)
    Depending on size, at least half the planet wiped. The blastwave will incinerate most of the forests (this happened at the KT boundary 65myr ago) Supposed dinosaur extinction.
    The mega tsunamis will wipe out the rest. No food, most animals wiped. If the earth had been one hour earier in rotation the Tungusta event (1908) would have wiped out a EU country.
    When the comet Shoemaker Levey 9 hit Jupiter in about 1991 the explosion was bigger than the Earth!

    2. Nearby supernova, within 1000 light-year radius of the sun. (lesser probability) Many star candidates , super giants, at about 500 lyr distance. Biggest Eta Carina 100x sun’s mass.
    Cosmic rays, gamma rays, Xrays produced wipe life.

    3. Solar, Major Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Technology destroying.
    The ‘Carrington Event‘ 1859, set fire to the telegraph wires at that stage of human development. Nowdays it could kill most of the worlds power grids.

    4. Ice ages. Slow but devastating. May occur faster than previously thought. Little or smaller cooling events (LIA) will reduce food supplies, cause wild jet-stream shifts creating more weather extremes (oh haven’t we heard that is caused by warming? )

    5. End of the solar system. Sun becomes a Red Giant. Don’t worry unless you plan on hitting a ripe age of 4500000000 yrs.

    Geophysical:
    1. Magnetic reversals. Total effects unknown as yet. Major extinction events seem to be correlated with some of these and they may take only a few months to occur!. Looks like there maybe one in the next xxx years. Increased cosmic rays. Extreme radiation. Life threatening to most of the planet.

    2. Super volcanoes. Moderate to low probability. Most recent Taupo in NZ. Most violent in past 5000yrs. ~169 AD bigger than Krakatoa 1883. Had this happened today it would wipe out the North Is of New Zealand!.
    Mega eruptions , huge magma ejections (India Deccan plateau), large volumes of SO2, continent destroying events.

    3. Mega tsunamis generated by landslips. medium prob. There is a large risk of this happening in the Canary Is of Africa which would create a 600m wave that travels across the Atlantic to the US East coast..run inland may tens of km!.

    Human:
    Nuclear war.
    The nuclear clock is about 2 mins to midnight.

    Worried about climate change…..?
    Worryworts, there is spaceship waiting on dock 9 to carry you away to the closest star, oops sorry about the radiation.

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    • #
      Phillthegeek

      2. Nearby supernova, within 1000 light-year radius of the sun. (lesser probability) Many star candidates , super giants, at about 500 lyr distance. Biggest Eta Carina 100x sun’s mass. Cosmic rays, gamma rays, Xrays produced wipe life.

      Nope, Eta Carina is bout 7500ly away and its rotational axis seems not to point in our direction.

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      • #
        theRealUniverse

        Fact check taken, I hadnt checked the actual distance.

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        • #
          ROM

          Nigel Calder [ dec ] was the editor of New Scientist when it was regarded as one of the best “science for the layperson” publications around in the 1960′s and seventies.

          Calder was a very strong supporter of Henrik Svensmark and his now inxreasigngly accepted theory on the influence and impact of cosmic rays on the formation of clouds and therefore on one of the major controllers of global temperatures, a theory that has since been experimentally confirmed with some more refinements required, by CERN scientists in a specially constructed cloud chamber where Svensmarks cosmic ray seeding of clouds was proven.

          And in another different experiment in Norway which backed up CERN’s findings on the Cosmic ray theory of cloud formation and the consequent feedback from the presence or absence of clouds providing the mechanism that is responsible for most of the stability as well as the temperature changes being measured around then planet.

          But Svensmark has a further theory about the role that the galatic Super Novae may have played in the history and rise of the species Homo Sapiens on this planet.

          The reference here is from the late Nigel Calder’s blog,

          “A stellar revision of the story of life”
          24/04/2012

          Svensmark’s Cosmic Jackpot

          Its a very interesting read if you are into paleo history on geological time scales and like to try and get your mind around some of the still a long way from science explaining, events and their impacts on life on our planet as well as the planet itself over those immense geological time scales.

          Svensmark’s theory here is that Super Novae generally over the last 500 million years and Super Novae in the Seven Sisters of the nearby Pleiades in the last 40 million years have had a very large effect on both the Planet, its sea levels, possibly its plate tectonics and therefore its life forms leading to such advanced life forms as the bi-pedal naked apes now described as Homo sapiens in the literature.

          Svensmark’s paper on this can be found under; Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth

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    • #
      yarpos

      Lets not forget the baggage handling system at Heathrow. That is something to really worry about!

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      • #
        Annie

        No trouble at LHR last time but damage done at MEL, as usual. MEL is a lot better in lots of ways than it used to be but the baggage handling needs attention to causing less damage. We have had quite a few things damaged there that have been through lots of other airports with no damage.
        Having said that, back in the 90′s we took some Australian red fizz (Andrew Garrett) over for a wedding. It went into the fragile crate at MEL and, to our utmost horror, came tumbling down the shute at LHR. We wos not happy bunnies but, amazingly, the bottles were intact even though the fizz was a bit shaken up! :)

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        • #
          James

          Champagne bottles are very strong, they are small pressure vessels.
          I pack wine within clothes, In a sleeve or a sock, and it has always travelled well.

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          • #
            Hanrahan

            The Darwin stubby [can you still get them?] never travelled well. Even in our old Neptunes, which seldom went above 1,000 ft they would explode.

            I was at a friend’s for Xmas one stinkin hot day and the “stubby” on the shelf chose the exact time we were sitting down to explode. A complete meal in the bin and the host with glass in his back..

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  • #
    Mark M

    It appears the science is unsettled …

    Breathe easy: Australian air is clean

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/breathe-easy-australian-air-is-clean-20110927-1kvfo.html

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    Dennis

    Surely the simple reply to people who claim there is “carbon pollution” (carbon dioxide) is to refer them to Environmental Protection Agencies and laws against polluting?

    Established during the 1970s and responsible, for example, for closure of the dirty suburban coal fired power stations which were replaced by superior cleaner technology and located in the countryside.

    So why is there, according to the stupids, carbon pollution today?

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    • #
      RickWill

      It is not that simple. The USA EPA regulations defines a pollutant as something harmful to people. The US Supreme Court has ruled CO2 to be a pollutant and should be regulated by the US EPA accordingly. That was back in 2007 but in 2016 Obama’s Clean Power Plan was challenged by a number of States and that stopped implementation of the Plan.

      These days there is enough real evidence to prove the benefits of increasing CO2 that could be used to challenge the ruling. The Supreme Court is likely to take a different stance in 2018 to 2007 given the support of Trump and the clear evidence against the applicability of climate models and doomsday forecasts.

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    Dennis

    Government grants on education … a very short but enlightening video taken by a Senator attending a Senate Committee in Canberra;

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2018/10/well-done-education-minister-simon-birmingham-for-careful-stewardship-of-taxpayer-.html

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    Andrew

    New research:
    “A reanalysis of available data, which cover 30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands, reveals that no atoll lost land area.”
    http://sci-hub.tw/10.1002/wcc.557

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    OriginalSteve

    As I predicted….

    You cant be in politics, if you havent signed onto The Cause…the Establishment thru and thru….

    Surprise….Turncoat or Phelps…same agenda…

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/first-thing-phelps-set-sights-on-reviving-fortunes-of-climate-body-20181027-p50cd3.html

    “Kerryn Phelps, the likely new member for Wentworth, will push for the revival of the near-defunct Climate Change Authority as part of her efforts to advance action on global warming at a federal level.”

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    • #
      Serp

      Good luck with that; she hasn’t been inducted into the House yet and after she has been the scales will fall from her eyes as she realizes, as legions have before her, the impotence of a lone Member.

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  • #
    pat

    lol.

    27 Oct: SMH: ‘First thing’: Phelps set sights on reviving fortunes of climate body (Climate Change Authority)
    By Peter Hannam
    Dr Phelps, who appears to hold an unassailable lead of 1783 votes for the seat vacated by former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, said her determination to emphasise cutting carbon emissions and advancing renewable energy was reinforced by a meeting in Sydney on Saturday with ex-Kiribati president Anote Tong.
    Dr Phelps said that while Mr Tong’s island nation faced immediate threats from rising sea-levels, the former leader stressed that “sooner or later everyone will be on the frontline” from threats wrought by a warming world.
    The independent candidate said it was clear from this month’s byelection that climate change – and the lack of federal policies – was among the highest concerns for Wentworth voters…

    “It’s the first thing that we could actually do – to reinstate the funding and the scientific credibility of the Climate Change Authority,” Dr Phelps told Fairfax Media. “It’s very important that we do have an independent authority looking at the evidence and providing advice to governments.”…
    A spokeswoman for the authority confirmed to Fairfax Media that, as outlined in the current budget, the Morrison government’s policy is for the agency “to be wound up within the life of the current Parliament”. Such a move would require legislation to pass…

    ‘God’s intention’
    Dr Phelps said business groups were taking climate action into their hands.
    Earlier this month, environment minister Melissa Price was accused of disrespecting the Pacific leader…
    Mr Tong described the incident as “a side event” that did not distract the focus of his mission. Indeed, by drawing much greater attention to his visit, “it may have been God’s intention”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/first-thing-phelps-set-sights-on-reviving-fortunes-of-climate-body-20181027-p50cd3.html

    27 Oct: Financial Times: Investors challenge 55 companies over commitment to climate change
    $2tn group calls out carmakers and oil corporations on ‘behind scenes’ lobbying
    by Attracta Mooney
    BMW, BP and steelmaker ArcelorMittal are being targeted by a $2tn group of big investors over concern that they back “behind the scenes” lobbying to undermine efforts to limit climate change while pubicly backing carbon reduction.

    The coalition of investors, led by the Church of England Pension Board and Swedish pension fund AP7, has written to 55 European corporations about their possibly hypocritical approach to climate lobbying.
    The investors have called on the companies, which include seven automakers and 10 oil groups, to review the positions adopted by trade asociations and organisations of which they are members. It has called for transparency…

    BMW, BP and ArcelorMittal did not respond to a request for comment.
    https://www.ft.com/content/4b25f48c-49b7-36e1-a009-6d1bc2808e55

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Given the dismal record of investment decisions by the Church of England, I am not surprised they are pushing the Global Warming project just about the time it expires.

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  • #
    pat

    Goldstein’s conclusion could as well apply to the Coalition Govt:

    27 Oct: Standard-Freeholder: Lorrie Goldstein: Trudeau’s carbon plan won’t work and Scheer doesn’t have one
    We saw a clear example last week of how political debate in Canada about man-made climate change has descended into fantasy.
    On the one hand, the details Prime Minister Justin Trudeau released about his carbon tax don’t add up.
    On the other, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer, if he has a plan, has thus far refused to tell Canadians what it is — other than attacking Trudeau.

    Trudeau, in imposing a federal carbon tax on Ontario, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and New Brunswick, predicts his national carbon pricing plan will lower Canada’s industrial greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 60 megatonnes (a megatonne, or Mt, is one million tonnes) by 2022.
    Terrific. Aside from the fact Trudeau’s predictions have been wrong before (see “modest deficits”), the latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released Oct. 8, says Canada and the other 197 signatories to the 2015 Paris accord, must now reduce their emissions to 45% below 2010 levels by 2030, to avert catastrophic climate change.

    To understand how unattainable this is, in 2016, the last year for which figures are available, Canada lowered its 2015 emissions by 1.4%, to 704 Mt from 714 Mt, both of which are higher than the 694 Mt Canada emitted in 2010.
    This new IPCC target would mean lowering our emissions to 382 Mt annually, a drop of 322 Mt in 12 years.
    To achieve that, Canada must shut down the equivalent of its entire oil and gas sector (189.5 Mt annually), plus 76.6% of its transportation sector (132.5 Mt annually), by 2030…

    As for big business, it’s hardly surprising they’ve climbed on board Trudeau’s bandwagon, because carbon pricing is really about who controls and profits from federal energy policy…READ ON
    https://www.standard-freeholder.com/news/national/goldstein-trudeaus-carbon-plan-wont-work-and-scheer-doesnt-have-one/wcm/76f0746c-d76b-4b75-89e3-7b497cdc3cd5

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  • #
    scaper...

    We went to Alexandra Headland to celebrate our 29th wedding anniversary this weekend. The ocean was great. Tested the PH with my Nata accredited, electronic testing kit. The PH reading…8.158. Interesting.

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  • #
    robert rosicka

    Quality NBN job of conduit to the home ,not even 100mm below ground and conduit visible after back fill of shallow trench .
    Wish I could post the photo .

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    • #
      James

      A friend of mine went to a meeting for contractors who might be interested in participating in the NBN project. He said that they were being offered $165 per install. If they had problems and needed more money, they had to take photos and submit a variance request.

      They were begging contractors to participate. He choose not to as $165 barely pays to locate the equipment to the site.

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  • #
    Phillthegeek

    How unusual! Libs lose yet another Newwspoll 54/46.

    doGs above but they are in for a thrashing. :)

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    • #
      GD

      It’s a long way to the poll that really matters.

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      • #
        Phillthegeek

        The main indicator here is not so much the gap, as the consistency of the polling.
        And May…not actually that far away. :)

        When its this bedded in, they are toas, actually somewhat over done toast with crunchy unpleasant tasting burnt bits that need scraping off…

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  • #
    john

    Mars colonization game changer? Liquid water on mars is speculated to be briny…

    Chinese researchers harvest rice grown in salt water.

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201805/31/WS5b0fb51fa31001b82571d787.html

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