JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Midweek Unthreaded

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Midweek Unthreaded, 9.9 out of 10 based on 17 ratings

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201 comments to Midweek Unthreaded

  • #
    Annie

    Gosh! Might I have turned on just at the right time?

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    • #
      ColA

      There were no comments when I first got here, I was so stunned I couldn’t think of anything to say!! :-)

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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      And now look at it. I’ve been amazed several times by the discussion sparked by some initial comment of mine, usually not exactly earthshaking in importance. But that’s what these are for — I hope anyway. And now it looks like it’s your turn. Congratulations. :-)

      10

  • #
    Annie

    While we were in England in September I was asked by numerous people about the drought. They were all under the impression that it was Australia-wide. I told them it was bad for farmers and graziers over large parts of NSW, QLD and some parts of Victoria were a bit short of rain too. I also told them that some members of the family in the SW of WA were having a very soggy time, hearing only today that everyone was suffering from cabin fever after such long periods of rain!
    We have been fortunate that our tanks and dams filled although it’s been rather dry these last few weeks. Some rain last week boosted the paddocks but more is needed. Time will tell. A dry period was useful a two or three years back; we were able to clean the silt out of the dam and channels.

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    • #
      C. Paul Barreira

      And much of SA and more than a bit short of rain. A recent trip through much of the mid-north left the impression that not a crop would be harvested for grain; all were in the process of being cut for hay.

      An astonishing number of eagles roamed around Burra, feeding off road kill, mostly kangaroos driven south by the want of grass.

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      • #
        Annie

        Wasn’t there a line, in South Australia, the Goyder Line, that was worked out, north of which was considered very iffy for cropping? In ‘good’ times farmers could move north of it but in dry times, don’t try it because the crops will come to nothing.

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        • #
          joseph

          Yes, there was. And it’s still marked on the road north of here. It’s been very dry and I’ve never seen so few flowers in the Flinders at this time of the year.

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        • #
          James Murphy

          Thanks to schoolboy South Australian Geography which has somehow stuck in my brain after a few decades, it was/is an astonishingly accurate representation of the 250mm isohyet, determined without really having much in the way of records to base it on.

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    • #
      ColA

      And the people not on farms need to remember that just because it rained doesn’t mean all the problems are over.
      Not everyone has had rain let alone “drought breaking” rain and there is still a fair road to recovery as farmers may be 6 to 12 months to get any decent sort of income and others will spend years to restock the rebuild their herds and their bank accounts!
      So we need to keep up the support, buy Australian every time!!

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      • #
        Annie

        That is so…the little bit of rain we had isn’t enough yet. I do feel for those whose livelihoods are so badly affected. To have to sell off or even cull good lines of cattle is heartbreaking. A local vet was heartbroken and worn out because of the number of brood mares he’d had to put down during the drought here that preceded the 2009 firestorm. We have some cattle here now that are fine stock from a dry area of Vic. East Gippsland is another area that has been short of rain…I’m told they are now setting up to deal with floods as that is the usual pattern there.
        My original comment was more to do with the media hype that gives the impression that the whole of Australia is in drought, which isn’t true.

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    • #
      John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia

      Send them this link, Annie.
      118 years of Australian rainfall

      40

    • #
      TdeF

      Australia is huge. Tropical 11 South to 44 degrees South at the bottom of Tasmania, spanning 33 degrees.
      The UK is 50North to 60North spanning 10 degrees, every bit far closer to the pole than any part of Australia.
      Flipped, the entire UK would be South of Tasmania.

      In Australia some tropical, some monsoonal, some temperate, some in the roaring forties, a lot of desert and 37,000 miles of beaches. It is 50x the size of England.

      Drought everywhere is unusual. The first question is, has the climate changed? The second is, which climate?

      The big question is, should we stop using and selling coal and gas and oil and save the planet? Who needs electricity anyway?

      40

  • #
    Hanrahan

    Has anyone here been a professional user of 2-4D, the selective herbicide? I am observing some weird effects months after application.

    30

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Hanrahan:

      What weird effects? Personal or spray drift? Not that there has been a change recently (Oct. 3) in types allowed.

      https://apvma.gov.au/node/15581

      10

    • #
      beowulf

      I haven’t used 2-4D or 2-4DB for 30 years but we used to get residual control effects which theoretically weren’t supposed to happen, since they’re basically selective knock-downs. Because we had a lot of clovers in the pasture, 2-4DB was our main weapon of choice for broadleaf weeds. Same as 2-4D but it doesn’t convert to the toxic form in the plant tissues of legumes and leaves them untouched. I’m rusty and can’t remember what I once knew about that side of things. Thistles would not reappear for years though despite the fact that there must have been a considerable seed bank in the soil. Being hormonal, those chemicals are always a bit sus.

      We went away from chemical use except for a sea of Roundup and used mechanical controls as much as possible, but that approach is highly dependent upon local circumstances.

      What are you using it on and what weird effects are you seeing?

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      • #
        beowulf

        Also, how are you using it? Boomspray or spot-spray? Are you sticking strictly to the directions or are you being a naughty boy?

        If you are spot-spraying you will likely be inadvertently overdosing the plants, which might cause weird effects.

        20

        • #
          Hanrahan

          OK some have used it so I’ll give a little detail.

          A year ago I sank a bore and having plenty of water I laid some turf but the nut grass always shows with a bit of water. 2-4D, I recall from a previous life, is effective on nut grass but I also recall buffalo is not wholly immune so I spot sprayed being careful with strengths. The knock-down was pretty much as expected but as winter came I got large areas of yellowing. I dumped water on it and tried some fertiliser but it is only now that the grass looks OK so I expect the dead spots to grow back.

          Then there is the china-apple tree growing over the fence. A hardy, nasty prickly thing which was shadowing my mulberry and drinking it’s water. Maybe four months ago I sprayed what was easy from my side of the fence but it was a weak mix [I like my mulberry tree and so do the birds] I got poor results so reckoned I would need to get fair dinkum next time. But now it is dying off, even where I didn’t spray in spite of an inch of rain a few weeks ago. The time interval is similar to that on my lawn.

          Curious.

          10

          • #
            ROM

            Your bore water if you used it as the spray carrier is probably the answer to your questions.
            Minerals in the likes of some bore water can and do act to open channels in the plant which allows the chemicals to bypass the plants biological barriers and biological neutralising systems to various hormonal and selective herbicides.

            For most spray chemicals it is neccessary to use something like rain water purity to guarantee the required results.

            In fact with some herbicide chemicals there are occassions where a nitrogen based or phosphorus or iron and etc based ferilizer type spray additive is added to the herbicide mix in the tank mix to achieve the required results against specific weeds and yet still not damage the crop.
            It does become a delicate balanacing act at times particularly after rain with its high nitrogen content and other normally plant food contents which rain effects makes some plants much more vulnerable to effects from herbicides.

            Can’t remember any specific cases anymore as I have been out of the hands on farming game for close to a couple of decades now and agricultural technology has moved on at a rapid pace in farming technology over that period.

            The technology and systems now being used and further developed in agriculture by “uneducated” farmers and the agricultural crop, pasture, livestock and systems engineers and scientists would leave a lot of the “educated” city centric elite looking like a bunch of third rate has beens if they ever tried to get their tiny one track minds around most of the world’s food production systems that have continued to feed mankinds ever growing numbers with better and more than adaquate amounts of food despite all the angst and past claims of imminent and catastrophic failures in food production supposedly to be “soon” due and “will” come to climate change which includes [ only a very short list here ]
            Too many people.
            Ever more droughts .
            More and more heat.
            Toxic chemicals killing people despite those same chemicals being responsible in large part for the increasing food production that is feeding ever more people.
            Cows farting that will destroy the planet . And they say that whilst pouring milk onto their wheaties [ from wheat ] in the morning’s breakfast
            Destroying the planets soils, the same soils where their food comes from and has come from for centuries and will continue to provide food for centuries to come.
            And of course, the same ecoloons who want to stop farming and destroy farming to save the planet are building and covering vast areas of the best and most fertile land with thousands of totally useless mansions, highly fertile, high production soils which is why the first towns, now major cities were established there in the first place.
            Those same soils could and did feed the rising populations until they were rendered basically useless by being built on whereas more often than not the poor soils were ignored being much harder to build on as they are often rough terrain and therefore more costly to turn into dwelling locations and so have been put into parks and etc as the cities expanded

            Etc etc

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  • #
    pat

    no Nauru, no ABC and no Paris. closest CAGW issue? Promoting renewable energy 20%:

    23 Oct: Guardian: The Guardian Essential report, 23 October results
    This report summarises the results of a weekly poll conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. Some questions are repeated regularly (such as political preference and leadership approval), while others are unique to each week and reflect current media and social issues

    Which of the following issues are the most important for the federal government to address over the next 12 months? Select up to three.

    Cost of living 60%
    Improving our health system 37%
    Housing affordability 29%
    Creating jobs and reducing unemployment 27%
    Improving workers wages and conditions 22%
    Promoting economic growth 20%
    National security and terrorism 20%
    Promoting renewable energy 20%
    Tax avoidance by big companies 17%
    Reducing the budget deficit 13%
    More funds for education 13%
    Income tax cuts 12%
    Business tax cuts 5%

    Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

    Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity 63%
    We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate 25%
    Don’t know 13%

    As far as you know, do you think Australia is doing enough, not enough or too much to address climate change?
    Doing enough 23%
    Not doing enough 56%
    Doing too much 7%
    Don’t know 13%

    Here are some things that the prime minister, Scott Morrison, has suggested or given his support to. Do you approve or disapprove of each of them?
    (INCLUDES)
    Pull out of the Paris climate agreement 29%
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2018/oct/23/the-guardian-essential-report-23-october-results

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    • #
      PeterS

      The results for “As far as you know, do you think Australia is doing enough, not enough or too much to address climate change?” is a sad indictment of the people. So it’s the opinion by the majority we need to do much more about climate change!!!! No wonder this nation is heading over the cliff.

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    • #
      PeterS

      63% say climate change is happening and is caused by human activity! Either the poll is way out or Australians are fools.

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      • #
        Yonniestone

        I choose B.

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        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I think its hard for most people.

          OK, lets take a step back – I think if what you see on shows like Gogglebox are ciorrect and it samples a representative part of the community, some people are a thick as bricks, some smart but have weird ideas, some plain ignorant, and some are just canon fodder.

          Now it gets a bit complicated. The influences on people can be complex. Assuming most of the media is marxist-captured, unless people truly are independent thinkers ( and there dont seem to be many of them ) then assuming maybe 20% of the population who may think correctly and arent too swayed by family and friends or peer groups, then that leaves 80% who either arent deep thinkers, dont have much free time to research, or are ignorant.

          So…if the most “trusted” news source is the left-of-Stalin Australian Bolshevik Collective, what hope do most people have? This is why I always advocate speaking to people within your spere of influence in pubs and clubs etc and putting them right.

          40

          • #
            Yonniestone

            So I’m correct then, yay.

            10

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              I’d like to think that life, work, and lack of spare time might also have an impact on people understanding. Yes, some of them are thick, but even thick people can understand if its explained right…..

              00

              • #
                Graeme#4

                I agree. I believe that the way to do this is to keep it simple and only present small amounts of info at a time. Always do this politely and listen to their comments. And avoid anything that sounds like conspiracy theory.

                00

          • #
            Another Ian

            Remember George Carlin on voters

            “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

            20

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              I often wonder if they are stupid ( incapable of useful thought or actions ) or just un-educated about stuff?

              00

              • #
                Graeme#4

                Most folks have a lot of things to worry about, and they hope that our government will sort this out for them so they can get on with their lives. It’s just too difficult for many folks.

                00

      • #
        Peter C

        The Poll is broadly in line with other polls, including polls of Scientists, eg Stenhouse et al recently reported on WUWT.
        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/23/president-trump-thinks-scientists-are-split-on-climate-change-hes-right-dana-nuccitelli-is-wrong/

        Given the extreme one sided position taken by the ABC, the Fairfax press, all of our Universities, the public service and all of our Scientific institutions and special Goverment institutions such as the Climate Change Authority, it not surprising that a majority Australians would think that Climate Change is a serious threat.

        Maybe they are not fools but have been mislead. Where will they hear or read the alternative view?
        An interesting question for me is why responsible people who should know a lot better have taken up the GAGW theme, eg Bernie Fraser (ex chairman of the Climate Change Authority). Bernie no longer gets a benefit becasue he resigned as chairman, but he has not expressed an doubt about GAGW, at least not publicly.

        At least most people probably know a climate skeptic by now. 25% in the survey said climate change is just normal fluctuation. That most be getting close to critical mass for skepticism to becaome mainstream.

        It is also encouraging that skeptical blogs such as JoNova enjoy a much wider readership than alarmist blogs like Skeptical Science (at least I think they do).

        30

  • #
    pat

    how Murpharoo sees the poll! smart people believe in CAGW!

    23 Oct: Guardian: Katharine Murphy: Most voters believe Morrison has failed to transform Coalition – Guardian Essential poll
    News of the poll comes as Morrison will attempt to steady the government’s battered political fortunes by pressing ahead with its agenda to lower power prices, and with a drought summit later in the week…

    The new Guardian Essential poll shows climate change – which was a significant factor in the Wentworth result – continues to be of concern to a majority of Australian voters.
    Just over half the sample, 56%, say Australia is not doing enough to address climate change, while 23% think Australia is doing enough. Voters between 18 and 44, and people with university education, are more likely to worry about the issue.

    Liberal National voters are split but they are more likely to think the government is not doing enough (45%) than the reverse.
    A comfortable majority – 63% – say climate change is happening and is caused by human activity, and 25% believe we may be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate.
    Assessed by age cohorts, voters under 35 split 66%-19% and people aged over 55 split 56%-37%. People with higher education are more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity.

    The government has played down the need for a significant shift in its position on climate change before the next federal election, despite the strong protest vote in the seat of Wentworth over the weekend.
    The treasurer and former energy and environment minister, Josh Frydenberg, told Sky News on Sunday that people in Sydney’s eastern suburbs were concerned about climate change, but he said the government did not intend to “reduce emissions at the expense of people’s power bills”…

    (FINAL PARA) Voters were also asked to nominate the most important issues the government should address over the next 12 months. Voters said addressing cost of living pressures (60%), improving the health system (37%), looking at housing affordability (29%) and creating jobs and reducing unemployment (27%).
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/22/most-voters-believe-morrison-has-failed-to-transform-coalition-guardian-essential-poll

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    • #
      MudCrab

      …and people with university education…

      Yeap…

      I mean one might say they let anyone into university these days, but… They let anyone into university these days.

      Face it, if you are not STEM then yes I would like some cake with my coffee.

      10

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Well the report from a well known Uni was released, showing basically people with room temp ATAR scores were being accepting into teaching.

        What hope do kids have if they are smarter than the teacher?

        60

  • #

    So then, how’s that move to 50% renewables going in Queensland, considering they have to get there by 2030?

    It’s been two years and four Months now since that whole thing fired up in the State, so with only eleven and a bit years to go, they must surely be well on the way, eh!

    Well, on Monday just gone, 22nd October, the State of Queensland consumed 143,280 MegaWattHours of power.

    There are seven coal fired power plants in the State, and 22 Units in all. Three of those Units are off line currently, either being Upgraded (two of them) or undergoing maintenance.

    Just from coal fired power alone in Queensland, on that same Monday, those coal fired Units generated 136,800 MegaWattHours of power.

    So, 95.5% of Queensland’s power on the day was generated by coal fired power alone.

    Queensland regularly delivers (a lot of) power into Northern New South Wales via its two Interconnectors, so umm, I suppose that doesn’t count as power ….. FOR Queensland, but seriously, if the power is generated IN Queensland, then it should surely count as Queensland generated power.

    Now we all know that, umm, creativity will be used to make it seem that the State has moved to 50% renewable power.

    Or else they could just hope that everyone has forgotten all about it by then, eh!

    As I mentioned in the very last paragraph of my Submission (sunk without trace)

    However, I can guarantee you this. In 2030 Queensland will not have 50% of its power sourced from Renewable power, no matter who says it is achievable.

    Tony.

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    • #
      Annie

      I trust that you kept copies of your submission Tony.

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    • #
      theRealUniverse

      50% ‘unreliables’ by 2030 = Total industrial collapse (QLD).

      130

    • #
      Robber

      But Tony, governments can spin: 21% of Queensland’s power to come from renewable energy by 2019
      Queensland will have 2164 megawatts of renewable energy ready by mid-2019, equivalent to 21 per cent of its total energy production, Energy Minister Dr Anthony Lynham said on 18/7/18. At the end of 2017, renewable energy contributed 9 per cent of the electricity produced in the sunshine state
      Dr Lynham said Queensland – where the state government owns and operates many of the coal-fired power plants as government-owned corporations – has no plans for “premature retirements” of coal plants. The Australian Energy Market Operator’s report says the retirement of coal power stations at Gladstone in 2029, Tarong in 2036 and Callide B in 2039 will remove 3780 megawatts from Queensland’s energy production network in 20 years.

      60

    • #
      Chad

      Yes, as has been said before, they will simply quote the “Nameplate” capacity of all wind turbines and every solar panel installed or just sold in Qld,… (including all rooftop) from year dot,…
      And probably add in a few “scheduled” or “approved” RE projects, to boost the numbers.

      70

      • #
        Chad

        Actually, if they really wanted to be sneaky,..QLD coud almost claim 50% RE next year .
        In addition to that 2164MW, they already have roughly 2000 MW of rooftop solar together with a few MW of wind…
        …so over 4000MW “nameplate” of RE which is getting close to that target !

        10

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        They used to include the bagasse (cane residue) burnt in sugar mills to generate heat and electricity as organic and renewable. Don’t know if that is still the case but when it comes to manipulating figures never trust a Greenie!

        00

    • #
      wal1957

      However, I can guarantee you this. In 2030 Queensland will not have 50% of its power sourced from Renewable power, no matter who says it is achievable.

      And unlike those warmist predictions, you, me, and the vast majority of people on this blog would happily guarantee that your prediction (based on practicalities) will happen.

      Roll on the election I say. We need a party with a bit of common sense and the cojones to implement sane policy.

      40

      • #

        I think that has become a bit of a ‘mission for life’. I want to live till 2030 just to refer back to that document.

        I’ll only be 79, so I have a pretty good chance.

        Tony.

        80

    • #
      RickWill

      I gather this data is only the wholesale market. Small scale solar that goes into the grid is only metered and paid for at retail level. It is invisible from a pricing perspective to the wholesale market that AEMO operates. AEMO estimate the contribution from small scale solar for scheduling dispatch able generation but they do not meter it or report on it.

      For example at midday today the wholesale market shows demand of 6002MW in Queensland. The actual demand at retail level is 7604MW. Small scale solar is showing 1580MW:
      http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/live#2018-10-24
      There are other non-wholesale generators contributing to the demand other than small scale solar. That is the cause of the slight discrepancy between the consumption and the sum of the wholesale generation and small scale solar.

      Going back to Monday small scale solar generated some 11550MWh in Qld. That figure is larger than the difference between coal generation and consumption you provided above because you are only considering the wholesale market. All small scale solar operates outside the wholesale market. It has priority access to the market and is only reduced if individual systems shut down on overvoltage. AEMO have no control over it.

      For a full three hours on Sunday small scale solar supplied more than 50% of the entire South Australian demand. This is really impacting the economics of wind generators in SA now. Wind was constrained from 0700 to 1130 and and 1500 to 1600. There was a lull in wind output through the middle of the day.

      Queensland is heading the same way as SA and will have skyrocketing power prices as more intermittent generation is permitted into the system.

      50

    • #
      Andrew

      Top article as always Tony

      20

  • #
    pat

    here’s how Essential’s ExecDir/Guardian columnist. Peter Lewis, sees the poll. CAGW is the ONE ISSUE WE’RE DEMANDING ACTION ON!!!

    23 Oct: Guardian: Essential Poll: Scott Morrison’s stunts and thought bubbles won’t be enough to win over voters
    by Peter Lewis
    (Peter Lewis is the executive director of Essential and a Guardian Australia columnist)
    There’s something Trumpian about his strategy: deny reality and then harness all your mastery of bluster to create a new one
    Sadly for Morrison, this week’s Essential Report shows that it’s not just the people of Wentworth who aren’t buying the “new government” line…

    Still, all Morrison has to do is land one thought bubble and there is the chance to confect an issue that unifies the conservative base, while splitting the progressive forces. This week’s Essential Report shows where such opportunities may lie…(ISSUES RESULTS)

    Only last week in a speech in Sydney, Morrison was lauding Captain Cook as a man of “science”. Make no mistake, the battle lines on a culture war are being drawn.
    The irony of the science line would not be lost on those of us waiting to see the government take meaningful action on climate change – something that now seems deeper in the “too-hard-basket” than ever before.
    And that’s where the Coalition’s cunning plan will inevitably hit the rocks.

    As far as you know, do you think Australia is doing enough, not enough or too much to address climate change? RESULTS

    For all his sound bites and stunts and too smart by half attacks on the opposition leader, the prime minister leads the same party that for the past six years has been incapable of leading ***on the one issue that the majority Australians is demanding action on.
    As he flirts with building new coal-fired power stations at the behest of his far north rump, the gap between expectation and execution will only broaden.
    Until the public comes to the conclusion there’s nothing new here. At best, a continuity with (no action on climate) change. THE END.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/oct/23/scott-morrisons-stunts-and-thought-bubbles-wont-be-enough-to-win-over-voters

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    • #
      Annie

      The Guardian thinks its poll relates to all Australians?! I think not. Most people who read the Grauniad would be inclined to live in fear of (warming) climate change…poor dears. They might well be afraid of climate change when the next ice age arrives, with some reason by then.

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      • #
        Dennis

        Last ice age 18,000 years ago and the Gulf of Carpentaria was a lake.

        I read that most Australian Aborigine survivors were camped around that rather large lake.

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    • #
      el gordo

      ‘There’s something Trumpian about his strategy: deny reality and then harness all your mastery of bluster to create a new one.’

      Morrison has discovered the Overton Window?

      10

  • #
    • #
      el gordo

      They are telling the young people there is no god, which is correct, and that the whole religious concept is badly flawed and unproductive.

      22

    • #
      el gordo

      When the Chinese invaded Tibet in 1950 they found a population living in serfdom, under a repressive religious regime and 78% of the people were illiterate. Beijing set about building hundreds of schools and now only 42% are illiterate, presumably the old people.

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      • #
        Greebo

        78% of the people were illiterate. Beijing set about building hundreds of schools and now only 42% are illiterate, presumably the old people.

        Hmm.. Did anyone ask the Tibetans what they thought about all that?

        Isn’t it the case that the Chinese invasion changed the demographic in Tibet by moving many Chinese there and simply outnumbering the natives?

        Simply quoting stats is not really helpful.

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        • #
          Kinky Keith

          And I sure that none of the trees were cut down and exported, that would have been plunder and against U.N.rules.

          I hear that the Chinese have moved on to Tonga where they are now helping the locals with large development loans.

          KK

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  • #

    Last week there was new piece of leading edge climate science published in Nature Plants. Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat.
    I paid $11 to read this treasure. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, it was projected that average crop yields for barely would fall on average 17% by the end of the century. This would do crazy things to the price of a bottle of beer. In the UK, a 500ml bottle costs about USD2.35. That beer price is projected to double, despite the cost of barley making up around 5% of the cost. Most is taxation. In Ireland, where higher taxes mean beer is currently 15% more than in the UK, beer prices are projected to triple. Before taxes, the model projects in Ireland the 500ml bottle will rise by at least $2 more than in the UK. This is because of an assumption that breweries would not spot an opportunity in Ireland and undercut the competition. The models assume, countries have economic systems quite separate from their neighbors and that economic actors do not spot an opportunity.
    Similarly, then decrease in crop yields has wide variations from the global -17%. For instance in Canada around Calgary and Edmonton yields are projected to fall by around the global average. Along the Canada/US border yields are not forecast to change. But in parts of Montana and North Dakota yields are projected to double, less than 1000km south of where yields are set to fall. The craziest part is that farmers are assumed to continue producing the same as before. Those enjoying bumper profits will not try to increase output, and those seeing a drop in income will not try to move to something else or react in any way.
    The models take some climate model, feed the data into agricultural models to get yields. The yield data is fed into economic models to spit out beer prices. Unlike mainstream economic models, these assume that economic actors do not react in any way to price or profit signals. Rather than profit-maximizers, instantaneously adjusting plans to available information, we have farmers and brewers being totally ignorant of the changing business environment for decades. The projection beer prices are claimed to double in the UK and Australia is due to modelers who have not sense-checked their results.

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    • #

      next time save yourself money and use scihub.org

      all you need is the doi

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      Roy Hogue

      Good Grief. Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat…

      That should put Slim Dusty’s rendition of Pub With No Beer right back at the top of the chart.

      That’s probably the cleverest song I’ve ever heard. The very word pub means beer, yet Parsons turned it around and off it went. Maybe it will put a little cheer back into an otherwise tough situation for those going through one of natures toughest trials.

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      • #
        Annie

        I thought ‘pub’ was an abbreviation for ‘public house’ where the British drank their beer Roy :)

        40

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Exactly — making Pub With No Beer a contradiction of itself. You would expect to get beer in a pub.

          I looked up the history and I hope I remember it accurately — the song apparently came about because a local pub had been drunk dry by a bunch of military men on a bender. Parsons was handed the idea by someone he knew and the song was born way back in the mid 1940s and when Slim needed a fourth song to fill up four sides and asked if he could record it, it was pressed into history apparently. It was the back side of something else but became the hit instead. It was the first million seller in Australia on those now hard to find 78 RPM records.

          Maybe I shouldn’t say this in these days of PC but I can’t imagine a song being written today containing the word queer. And maybe you can tell me, who or what is a publican, maybe census taker or tax collector?

          10

          • #
            Annie

            He (or she) is Mine Host in a pub!

            00

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              I’m glad I asked because I would never have guessed that in a million years. Except back East in a few places the term pub just isn’t a part of life. There are some theme places called a pub, usually Irish but if I had not been a reader and a movie goer I would never have heard of a pub.

              00

          • #
            Greebo

            Exactly — making Pub With No Beer a contradiction of itself. You would expect to get beer in a pub.

            Hmm. Not exactly. A public house in the Scottish Highlands would only serve beer under sufferance. A wee dram or two five should suffice..

            00

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              Well, there I learned something again. And the Hogues were Scotts. My grandfather changed the spelling from the Scottish Hogge to the British Hogue because he got tired of being called Hog according to family history.

              You never know what you can learn from some offhand remark around here.

              10

            • #
              Joe V.

              Through the 70s & 80s you could hardly move in Scottish bars without bumping into MacEwan’s and Tennent’s lagers & darker beers.
              “A pint u Heavy Jimmy”
              Brewery chain takeovers & closures have since largely diluted tastes with foreign brands.

              https://youtu.be/kRAWuwyHG3E

              00

    • #
      FarmerDoug2

      ..and how much barley goes in a pint of beer?
      Doug

      10

    • #
      • #

        God knows what it’ll do to the Spaghetti harvest!\https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVo_wkxH9dU

        20

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Beth:

          May thanks for the link. I’ve known about that classic April fools day trick by the BBC for years but never ran across it.
          They don’t make them like that these days, although there is plenty on the BBC designed to fool people all year.

          10

          • #

            Given the state of ridiculous prophesies dressed as climate science, people have lost a sense of the absurd. So people would no longer see the joke. Worst still, the BBC may end up making some people look a fool, or offend those who had previously believed spaghetti grew on trees. The BBC would then have publicly apologize and send the members of staff responsible on re-education courses.

            10

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              … believed spaghetti grew on trees.

              Keven, You’re just a font of knowledge today. I always thought spaghetti was made in a spaghetti factory by little Chinese elves imported from China to Italy by Marco Polo.

              On the other hand we know exactly where nonsense comes from (being polite lest Jo get mad at me) — climate change pushers.

              10

        • #
          ROM

          So the implied fiction here with the horror “beer becoming in short supply due to climate change” story is that the farmers and the agricultural scientists and plant breeders are so damn dumb and stupid, similar or maybe a level above the media journalists and editors of the media and of the Australian Bolshevists Collective [ I'll pinch that one Original Steve ] that they will not and cannot ever change and advance and adapt to any climate changes with their barley growing technology from this day forth.

          The utter bloody minded stupidity of these claims is absolutely mind bogglingly stupid and a damn good reflection on the abysmal mental calibre of the educated scientific idiots who made up and wrote up this paper and the even more simple minded idiots in the media who promoted it without ever thinking, [ Most of the media these days do seem to have the mental abilities of a sea cucumber considering the level of intellect that goes into most of their publications ] about what that simple minded, idiot level paper was actually suggesting, that the entire barley growing,malting, beer production industry was incapable of ever changing and adapting and advancing in the slightest from its present technology and beer production method forever into the far future.

          10

          • #

            ROM,
            In economic models always absurd assumptions have been made. But after producing the model results there what-if questions were asked. In neoclassical economics these included people being profit-maximisers, have perfect information and instantaneously (plus costlessly) change plans to new information. Whilst absurd in the extreme, over long periods people do react to new opportunities or changed circumstances. Over 90 years, large changes in yields due to climate will cause a response from farmers. If individuals do not respond, or respond incorrectly, they will be driven out of business by those who make the right decisions.
            The economic models in climatology generally assume the opposite. The dumb economic actor assumption comes from a socialist view of the world that nothing good ever happens without the guiding hand of the state. It is not just beer prices. I recently looked at the projection, in a Government Committee Report of 7000 extra heat-related deaths a year in the UK by the 2050s. Within the figures, about half the projected deaths were of the over-75s in hospitals. The “dumb actor” assumption here applied to medical staff, who faced with decades of an increasing problem of patient distress due to heat do nothing about it. Even to the extent of not giving more drinking water, or providing cool bed baths. See here.
            Another example was of milk yields projected to fall due to increasing heat stress in cows. Again, the yields would fall because dumb farmers not taking action. That is basic action such as learning how Australian or Brazilian farmers cope with heat stress in their cattle today. One method is changing to more heat resistant breeds.
            Most of the projected costs of global warming are due to the assumption of failing to adapt. So if sea levels rise by two meters, it is assumed that people carry on as if sea levels were at today’s levels and are as surprised by the two meter rise if it occurs over centuries as if it the rise occurred over the course of a few days.

            20

  • #
    PeterS

    I think at least some of us know ALP’s policy to increase renewables significant will not happen. It’s a bluff to appease a large proportion of the public who still believe in the CAGW story and that we must act accordingly. I don’t really believe people like Shorten are that stupid. The Greens yes but not the ALP as a whole. That’s why the LNP is still selling a similar message to reduce our em missions and also to appease the same people. It has become a game as to who can bluff their way to the next election without going too far or not far enough. It was always the case under Turnbull and nothing has really changed with Morrison. Sad really since I still believe Morrison has the time to convince enough people the truth about the CAGW hoax/scam and sway people to support the LNP and win the next election. Instead he has chickened out and risks losing by a landslide. Clearly he doesn’t understand and hasn’t experienced the “all-in” strategy of poker.

    50

    • #
      el gordo

      Morrison is flying kites to get a reaction.

      ‘The Morrison government has held out the prospect of government support for new coal-fired power stations “where they meet all the requirements” of yet-to-be determined mechanisms to boost investment in new electricity generation.’ Guardian

      30

      • #
        PeterS

        Yes but each time he has been flying his kites they have been shot down in flames by conservative supporters if one listens to 2GB and watches Sky News. It is coming clear he is trying to be all things to all people, just like what Turnbull was doing. If he continues like that he will lose the next election by a landslide just as what would have happened under Turnbull. I’m still hoping Morrison will change but I’m running out of hope.

        70

        • #
          el gordo

          We should know by Xmas.

          Phil mentioned that Abbott and Bernardi are talking, but I cannot verify. What do you make of it?

          20

          • #
            PeterS

            Didn’t know that but I like it. I think Abbott knows things are getting out of control with the LNP and something drastic has to be done to save the furniture if not the party given Morrison is already turning out to be a complete failure.

            50

            • #
              el gordo

              Before the coup this is what Cory had to say; “I have a personal view Tony Abbott is the only person that could actually bring the base fully back.”

              I’ll have to think on this and by the way its crossed my mind that Phil was just taking the ****.

              20

        • #
          robert rosicka

          Current reports say that Morrison and Taylor are offering incentives for new coal fired power investment of which is the possibility that any future carbon tax that the Lab Green govt will introduce that the company’s will be protected from by govt subsidies or indemnity.

          10

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        What we must ask is why the desperate rush into renewables?
        Any fool, even some Greens, knows that variable supply depends on storage to be practical. Snowy 2 won’t be ready before 2024 assuming that the government project comes in on time (and budget) and it is the largest (and cheapest) form of storage.
        The rush seems to be an attempt to destroy reliable electricity generation.

        The other question I think we should ask is “If renewables are so cheap and wonderful”, why are 59 countries pushing ahead with over 1,000 coal fired power stations?

        10

        • #
          ROM

          Maybe it is because the “educated” political and academic elite here in Australia aren’t capable of reading anything more complicated than a Twitter post;

          From Pierre Gosselin’s NoTricksZone blog 15 Oct 2018

          In the first 9½ months of 2018, 368 scientific papers have been published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob…or that otherwise serve to question the efficacy of climate models or the related “consensus” positions commonly endorsed by policymakers and mainstream media sources.

          And his previous post to the above; From Germany the poster child of the renewable energy industry and its 29, 900 turbines in an area about 50% larger than Victoria

          Nature-Wrecking Machines…Experts Warn Wind Turbines Slowing Wind Speeds, Causing More Warming!

          Experts are finding out wind turbines are not only an inefficient way to produce electricity, but that they are also wrecking the environment, natural habitats and even the climate.

          So far we know wind parks:

          Are an erratic source of power
          Have high maintenance costs
          Involve recycling problems
          Blight the natural landscape
          Are a hazard to birds and wildlife
          Result in deforestation and wrecked biotopes
          Make people seriously sick (infrasound), and
          Interfere with weather radars.

          And according to one German prominent meteorologist, Dr. Karsten Brandt of Donnerwetter.de, wind turbines are now even putting the brakes on wind speeds and even altering local climates
          &

          An ever weaker wind is blowing across Germany. For example in the 1960s annual wind speeds of 3.7 meters per second were measured in Osnabrück, but now it’s only 3.2 m/s. That’s a drop of over 13 percent. Almost all weather stations in the country which were analyzed by the Bonn-based meteorologists at donnerwetter.de found that the trend looks similar.

          Wind speed has decreased “very significantly”

          “In most places, the mean wind speed has decreased very significantly,” says Dr. Karsten Brandt. And he has a suspicion: “We believe that in the last 15 years more and more massive wind turbines have influenced the wind speed.”
          &
          Confirmed by other studies

          A variety of studies support the meteorologists’ assumption. “Danish research has shown that air flow is weaker than before the turbines even 14 kilometers downstream from a wind farm,” says Dr. Brandt.

          This is an effect that the operators of such parks are concerned about. If a new turbine park is built in front of an existing park in the main wind direction, the losses could be over 50 percent, American studies have shown.

          In northern Germany, there is now one wind turbine every 10 square kilometers.

          There are reportedly now something like a thousand local citizen groups in Germany who are opposing any more turbines being built in their areas.

          The [ non ] renewable chickens are really beginning to come home to roost in Germany with a vengence and the Germans are beginning to wake up to the gigantic con by the renewable energy industry.

          30

        • #
          Robber

          Graeme, why the rush to renewables? Savvy investors. Because as the legislation stands, the subsidies cut out in 2030.
          That applies to the RET certificates for large scale, and the rooftop calculation of how much upfront subsidy is received.

          10

  • #
    MudCrab

    Turnbull to Bali?

    Now I would like to think this is part of a massive revenge plan by the Prime Minister.

    Wait till Turnbull is elbow deep in Alarmists, allow him to wuffle on for the entire conference and then, before Turnbull has even left the conference centre, announce that Australia will be pulling out of Paris.

    Not THAT would be awesome.

    Not holding my breath, but…

    130

  • #
    Analitik

    A VERY disappointing, wishy-washy display by Energy Minister, Angus Taylor on the 7:30 Report last night.

    All he did was stick to the narrative of the government focussing on lowering electricity prices. He refused to be drawn into meaningful discussion about renewables, carbon emissions and Malcolm Turnbull. The only area where he was even slightly critical of previous (ie Turnbull) Coalition policy was to say that he was always keen on containing electricity prices and that the country needed an Energy Minister that focussed on this (a very weak slap at John Frydenberg).

    This attempt to tread the middle ground and not offend anyone will not energize conservative voters and won’t convert the watermelons. You really have to wonder what the current government is trying to achieve.

    https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/angus-taylor-on-trying-to-get-electricity-bills/10420958

    100

    • #
      Analitik

      Plus he used the new buzzword, “firming”, for excusing renewables’ inability to provide power when needed (ie dispatchability) which is no better than the old one, “backup”.

      When will the excuses stop and renewables be made to honor contractual bids like the rest of the market?

      110

    • #
      Dennis

      The waffling from most of the politicians is disgusting.

      They have plans, what plans, well plans, ok but what exactly, emissions reduction targets, so how will you achieve the targets, we have plans …….

      90

  • #
    PeterS

    A comment I heard on 2GB is so true. The only person in the LNP who is listening to the people and speaking accordingly is Abbott. Everyone else including Morrison are all talking in doublespeak. Perhaps the only way the LNP can win the next election is for yet another spill and make Abbott the leader. Of course that’s not going to happen, but it should. Might as well since the LNP looks like losing the next election as bad if not worse than under Turnbull. I hope I’m wrong and Morrison pulls out some nice surprises soon. But…

    100

    • #
      Reed Coray

      PeterS. I’m an American. I’ve seen the word “spill” used when discussing Australian politics. What exactly is a “spill” and what is its etymology?

      30

      • #
      • #
        PeterS

        I envy your system in that respect. Impeaching a US President is so much more difficult, and so it should be, than having a spill here.

        10

        • #
          Reed Coray

          For what it’s worth, it takes more than impeachment to remove a President. As I understand it, in criminal law conviction of an individual for a serious crime is a two-step process. First, a Grand Jury indicts the individual. That is, a Grand Jury formally accuses a person of a crime. A trial follows an indictment. The accused is convicted and sentenced only if the trial finds him guilty. Impeachment, which is the responsibility of the House Of Representatives, is equivalent to a Grand Jury indictment. If a President is impeached, a trial takes place in the Senate where guilt or innocence is determined. For example, Bill Clinton was impeached by the House of Representatives; but the resulting Senate trial found him not guilty so he remained in office.

          00

          • #
            PeterS

            Many years ago I saw a chart of the steps involved to get rid of a US President. It looked like a much more sophisticated and complex version of Monopoly. Here we can do conduct a spill very quickly, much like Tic-Tac-Toe (aka Noughts and Crosses).

            00

            • #
              Hanrahan

              Impeachment is a political process, not a legal one.

              But what I don’t understand in the US is why house and other leaders seem to have jobs for life. Pelosi has overseen massive dem losses at all levels but seems assured of keeping her job next year.

              00

          • #
            Greebo

            First, a Grand Jury indicts the individual. That is, a Grand Jury formally accuses a person of a crime.

            Please correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t it true that a person can be accused and indicted by a Grand Jury with no evidence at all, other than circumstantial, with no possibility of defending themselves and no legal representation, and can then be held in custody pending trial? Something of a blunt instrument to be wielded by the DA? That’s my understanding of how it works in California, at least. It seems a little heavy handed to me.

            10

            • #
              Reed Coray

              I’m not a lawyer so everything I say about legal proceedings should be taken with a grain of salt. Having said that, whether or not a person “can be held in custody pending trial” doesn’t sound right. I think for some crimes (say murder) what you say may be true, but for most crimes I believe you can post bail and be free pending trial. As to the rest of your question, I believe you’re correct. There’s a saying I’ve often heard on television: “a good prosecuting attorney could indict a ham sandwich.”

              10

  • #
    pat

    Analitik comment #13 -

    I’m not listening to the ABC interview, because I stupidly listened to Angus Taylor on 2GB this morning.
    why is it so many Coalition politicians sound like they are in a tunnel, or on a speaker phone, or worse, when they are on 2GB? it’s almost unlistenable…and definitely incomprehensible.

    the Govt has already forced suppliers to inform people when their discounted plan is up for renewal so, when Taylor goes on about that, it’s plain rubbish. it took me less than 5 minutes to renew my plan.
    nothing could prepare you for how bad this interview is. only worthwhile moment is a listener who calls in & mentions ditching Paris near the end:

    AUDIO: 12min23sec: 24 Oct: 2GB: Alan Jones: Don’t have time to negotiate a better power bill? This plan could save you money
    Energy Minister Angus Taylor tells Alan Jones not all Australians have the time or the negotiating skills to make that happen.
    “There is a loyalty tax which customers are being hit with.
    “Customers who have stuck with a service provider and not got on the phone to get a better price, then we get slugged.
    “We’re saying that’s not good enough.
    “This will be a fair price for customers who don’t have the time to get on and negotiate.
    “You know how painful it is. Three or four, five, 10 phone calls you’ve got to make.”

    Alan warns Minister Taylor that all of these measures are ignoring the bigger issue.
    “The way out of better prices for electricity is to stop demonising coal-fired power.
    “We’ve got to stop closing coal-fired power plants,” says Alan.
    https://www.2gb.com/dont-have-time-to-negotiate-a-better-power-bill-this-plan-could-save-you-money/

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    • #
      PeterS

      Pat it’s not a tunnel but a mass grave they are digging for themselves.

      70

    • #
      Analitik

      I had hopes for the guy when from initial statements when he was given the Energy portfolio but last night’s performance (or lack thereof) shows him to be little better than Frydenberg.

      I now hope Abbott leaves the Liberals and joins Bernardi to build up a true conservative party to represent us properly.

      110

      • #
        PeterS

        I’ve been hoping Abbott would do that for some time now. Perhaps the performance of Morrison of late is going to force Abbott to do just that and bring along with him a whole swag of others. It’s time we have a strong third force given the LNP has lost the plot of being a conservative party. It would also give voters a clear choice unlike the confusion we have trying to distinguish the two major parties on so many fronts.

        80

      • #
        James in Melbourne

        To be fair, Analitik, Leigh Sales was trying for a gotcha on “how much money will come off people’s power bills?” as if everyone’s goddam bill is precisely the same. Given she interrupted him several times asking for the exact amount of dollars – and she probably wanted cents as well – that would come off every single power bill in every household in Australia, he was on a hiding to nothing.

        30

    • #
      Greebo

      it’s almost unlistenable…and definitely incomprehensible.

      Oh, I don’t know. I could definitely comprehend that Angus is now quite capable of mastering doublespeak. He is now a true politician. And we’re stuffed.

      00

  • #
  • #
    pat

    instead of waking up to news that the PM has cancelled the plan to send Turnbull to Bali, we get:

    AAP VIDEO: 2min41sec: 24 Oct: Hobart Mercury: PM says Turnbull will represent Australia at Bali conference
    The Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaking to the media at a gelato business in Canberra announces that former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull will represent the Australian government at the Oceans conference in Bali. “This decision was taken weeks and weeks and weeks ago..this decision is in the national interest..former prime ministers continue to have a role to play to serve our country,” Mr Morrison says. The Prime Minister denied that his relationship with the former pm has soured.
    https://www.themercury.com.au/news/national/pm-says-turnbull-will-represent-australia-at-bali-conference/video/5966a3a4958201c0570d1b31d6879c96

    the almost inaudible question at the end is about whether or not Morrison’s relationship with Turnbull has soured, to which he answers with a firm “no”.

    TURNBULL SHOULD NOT GO TO BALI.
    PLUS AT LEAST $400MILLION OF THE $443MILLION SHOULD BE RETURNED TO THE GOVT BY THE GREAT BARRIER REEF FOUNDATION NOW.

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    • #
      Dennis

      So he was invited by the President of Indonesia ScoMo claims?

      Australia signed and ratified the UN IPCC Agreement and the Bali event is a UN function.

      Turnbull is now an ordinary citizen, no longer in the Parliament, so isn’t it insulting to Indonesia and others that our government has chosen not to send a Cabinet Minister or Prime Minister?

      Loss of face is a big deal in Asia.

      40

      • #
        Hanrahan

        Turnbull is now an ordinary citizen, no longer in the Parliament, so isn’t it insulting to Indonesia and others that our government has chosen not to send a Cabinet Minister or Prime Minister?

        That’s the best part of it. Australia can disown anything he says and he won’t have a government cheque book [English spelling] or credit card in his pocket.

        10

  • #
    Dennis

    Some light relief from the troubles of the day, the look on the children’s faces as the event unfolds is priceless;

    http://www.youtube.com/embed/JNgCM7zp30M?version=3&start=1&end=198&autoplay=1&hl=en_US&rel=0

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    • #
      Annie

      That’s great fun Dennis…I loved it and have sent the link onto the family.

      30

    • #
      Graeme#4

      Thanks Dennis the kids won’t forget that song in a hurry!

      20

      • #
        Annie

        Years ago, (while I was still at school actually…good grief!) I made up a ditty to that tune as a way to remember the defects of eyes and lenses (groan!).

        First there’s myopia
        And presbyopia
        Hypermetropia,
        Astigmatism. (a drawn out last syllable please)

        Chromatic Aberration,
        Spherical Aberration,
        Caustics by Reflection,
        And such defection.

        Fit it into the tune, cringeworthy my effort may be but I have never forgotten them.

        In the same mode, someone else’s I never forgot:

        Fiddle de dum
        Fiddle de dee
        A ring round the moon is pi times d
        But if a hole you want repaired
        You use the formula pi r squared!

        60

    • #
      Hanrahan

      I love flash mobs.

      Ravel’s Boléro is a natural with it’s simple start,
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQbhIlEhFqw

      00

  • #
    pat

    I check most days to see if anything’s brewing on the Great Barrier Reef Foundation scandal – like a demand that they return the money – but there’s usually nothing worth posting.
    today there’s:

    24 Oct: ArchitectureNow NZ: The eco-ethical house: part one
    Review by Justine Harvey and Camille Khouri
    With growing concerns about the toxic effects of chemicals and plastics in the natural environment, and whether or not manufacturing labour is ethical, we investigate sustainable practices and reliably sourced, eco-friendly homewares and materials.
    Building is a huge factor in carbon emissions and waste. Making good choices around the types of product used for a build can help to reduce the carbon footprint of a house…

    PIC: Ocean Plastic Knobs by Vert Design studio for Spark and Burnish are constructed from plastic collected from the ocean.
    ***A donation goes to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation…

    This article first appeared in Houses magazine.
    https://architecturenow.co.nz/articles/the-eco-ethical-house-part-one/

    Foundation has a terrible website. the knobs must be expensive if $10 from each goes to the Foundation?

    Great Barrier Reef Foundation: Shop for the Reef
    Donate Now video
    Treat yourself to a little Reef-tail therapy and these generous organisations will donate a portion of their sales proceeds to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation for Reef research.

    Charity Redemption
    Qantas Store
    Qantas Frequent Flyer will donate $25 to the Foundation for every 2,900 points you redeem…

    Spark & Burnish: Handles from the ocean
    Made from recycled plastic retrieved from the ocean, ***$10 from each retail handle sale will be donated to the Reef…

    (CHECK OUT THE REST IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHICH COMPANIES YOU MIGHT NOT WANT TO PATRONISE)
    https://www.barrierreef.org/get-involved/shop-for-the-reef

    30

  • #
    pat

    saw this in most MSM yesterday but waited to see if WUWT picked it up, which they have:

    23 Oct: WUWT: Anthony Watts: NASA releases photo of weird rectangular iceberg
    Operation IceBridge, NASA’s longest-running aerial survey of polar ice, carried a flight over the northern Antarctic Peninsula on Oct. 16, 2018. During the flight, IceBridge senior support scientist Jeremy Harbeck spotted two rectangular icebergs floating among sea ice just off of the Larsen C ice shelf…

    PHOTO GALLERY
    https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasa_ice/43707491400/in/album-72157702586203404/

    FUN IN THE COMMENTS
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/23/nasa-releases-photo-of-weird-rectangular-iceberg/

    FUN IN THE REPLIES HERE TOO:

    23 Oct: TWEET: NASA ICE
    Wow, it’s been amazing to see what a splash our photo of a tabular Antarctic iceberg, by #IceBridge’s Jeremy Harbeck, has made. Fly toward the berg with @NASAArmstrong’s DC-8 forward camera. More: https://go.nasa.gov/2yuzwiq
    https://twitter.com/NASA_ICE/status/1052601381712887809

    10

  • #
    Mawashi

    Looks like my old hometown is getting some batteries that will keep the lights on at a handful of homes for a few minutes when the wind isn’t blowing or it’s a bit cloudy.

    And a quote from battery supplier AusNet:

    AusNet managing director Nino Ficca called the battery a “watershed moment” for the state.

    It’s certainly a watershed moment for AusNet.

    “Integrating this technology into our Ballarat Terminal Station means it is well placed to enhance the stability of the state’s energy supply, especially during the coming summer peak demand period,” Mr Ficca said.
    Straight out of PR central. Nobody who tells the truth talks like that in real life.

    EnergyAustralia chief executive Cath Tanna said batteries will make the grid more reliable as coal plants retire and is replaced by wind and solar power.

    “That’s where utility-scale batteries come into their own by storing wind and solar energy for quick release, keeping the lights on and costs down,” Ms Tanna said.

    So you’re admitting that renewables are unstable and expensive. How is a state supposed to attract and keep industry when there’s no reliable source of baseload power?

    Unfortunately this is almost destiny, because the Liberals lack the spine to solve the problem at its source. So they’ll lose another election and Victoria will be stuck with a tribe of rabid socialists determined to eliminate the jobs of the unionists who support them… They’re clever, but not that bright.

    40

    • #
      Dennis

      Environmentalism: Every once in a while, environmentalists will let slip that the goal of fighting climate change can’t be won unless capitalism is first defeated. The fact that there’s no evidence to support the claim doesn’t seem to matter.

      00:34
      02:26
      The latest to make this case is Arizona State University fellow Benjamin Fong in an Op-Ed published recently by the New York Times, headlined “The Climate Crisis? It’s Capitalism, Stupid.”

      “It should be stated plainly: It’s capitalism that is at fault,” he writes. Or, what he later calls “the rampant stupidity of capitalism.” The answer, he says, is a “democratic socialist society.”

      Fong isn’t the only one making this claim. Naomi Klein’s 2014 book titled “This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate” argues that the planet is doomed unless the world abandons “free market” ideology.

      Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, admitted that the goal of climate change policy wasn’t just to cut CO2 emissions, but “to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution.”

      Assume for the sake of argument that everything environmentalists say about global warming is true — that the computer models are perfectly accurate in predicting future warming and that the result will be entirely negative.

      Is capitalism to blame? Let’s review the evidence.

      Free market economies have become far less carbon intensive over time. Data from the United Nations show that the U.S. emitted 62% less carbon for each dollar of GDP produced in 2014 than it did in 1990. In Hong Kong, which is ranked as having the most free economy, its carbon intensity dropped by 58% over those years.

      What about more socialist countries? Communist China emits 86% more CO2 per dollar of GDP than does the U.S.; Russia emits 50% more.

      Worldwide, carbon intensity has steadily dropped since 1990. Those were years when free market capitalism was spreading, and the trend started long before the world was taking climate change seriously.

      Why? Because even without any government oversight, free markets reward efficiency. And one of the biggest sources of waste is energy use. Trying to increase profits, therefore, invariably means less energy use, and less pollution, including CO2.

      Free markets are also inherently “sustainable” because businesses want to stay in business. That means making sure resources are carefully managed for the long term.

      Socialism, in contrast, is dirty business. The Soviet Union was a horrendous polluter, as were other Eastern Bloc countries. “The socialist world suffers from the worst pollution on Earth,” noted Thomas DiLorenzo back in 1992.

      Here at home, the federal government is the biggest energy consumer and polluter — despite being free of any profit motive.

      The simple truth is that, as long as there are people on the planet, they’re going to need and want things. The best, most sustainable, most earth-friendly way to deliver those things is through free market capitalism.

      RELATED:

      The UN Admits That The Paris Climate Deal Was A Fraud

      U.N. Official Reveals Real Reason Behind Warming Scare

      Scientists Say Earth Is Doomed Without ‘Urgent’ Action — Just Like They Did 25 Years Ago

      Click here for more Commentary and Opinion from Investor’s Business Daily.

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    Dennis

    That fr*ud word again?

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    pat

    24 Oct: ABC: Scott Morrison hits back following criticism over Malcolm Turnbull’s role at Bali conference
    By political reporter Jackson Gothe-Snape
    Mr Morrison cannot attend due to other commitments…

    Bishop backs move
    The Our Ocean conference starts in Bali on Monday.
    It promises to bring together heads of state, ministers, and “champions from various backgrounds” to “influence concrete and actionable commitments to preserve the oceans’ health”.
    Former foreign minister Julie Bishop backed the decision and said many nations sent former leaders to such conferences.
    “Malcolm Turnbull has a deep and abiding interest in the oceans, in the environment, in climate change,” she told reporters in Canberra.
    “I think he will do Australia proud.”…

    Mr Morrison also said Mr Turnbull may be sent to additional conferences “where there’s an opportunity and it’s in Australia’s national interest”.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-24/malcolm-turnbull-to-bali-in-national-interest-scott-morrison-say/10422552

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    Geoff Sherrington

    Further to Dr John McLean about poor historic temperature records, I offer a systematic approach to test the effects of adjustments.
    In any temperature/time series, the trend is affected by adjustment duration, magnitude, sign and where in the time series the adjustment site, early or late.
    I drew the following graph to show the latter effect, which AFAIK has not been incorporated into any tests of homogenisation effects.
    Yet we have often heard dismissive moments like ‘The positive adjustments offset the negative and cancel out.”
    If anyone has the data bases to test adjustments, nationally or globally, it is past time to do so.
    Geoff
    http://www.geoffstuff.com/trendsetter.jpg

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    pat

    23 Oct: GatewayPundit: Cristina Laila: JUST IN: Goodlatte and Gowdy Postpone Interview With DAG Rosenstein
    House Republicans postponed a closed-door interview with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein originally scheduled for Wednesday.
    House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) and House Oversight Chairman Trey Gowdy (R-SC) released a joint statement Tuesday evening:
    “The Committees are unable to ask all questions of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein within the time allotted for tomorrow’s transcribed interview, therefore, the interview will be postponed.”

    “Mr. Rosenstein has indicated his willingness to testify before the Judiciary and Oversight Committees in the coming weeks in either a transcribed interview or a public setting. We appreciate his willingness to appear and will announce further details once it has been rescheduled.”
    The midterms are less than two weeks away. If Rosenstein doesn’t appear before House Republicans before the midterms and the Democrats take the House, goodbye oversight.

    Rosenstein previously demanded his interview be held in a SCIF (Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility) with multiple Republican lawmakers excluded.
    Gowdy and Goodlatte gave in to Rosenstein’s demands. It is also important to note that both Republican lawmakers announced their retirement and will not seek reelection in the 2018 midterms.
    Catherine Herridge reported Monday that Rosenstein’s transcribed interview will be withheld from the public for a prolonged period of time because it must be reviewed by the intelligence community before it is released.
    When Rosenstein’s interview is finally released to the public, it will have redactions.

    Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-NC) blasted Rosenstein for demanding his interview be held in a classified setting.
    Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-FL) also criticized the process and said, “This is no way to conduct oversight.”
    It appears Rosenstein’s strategy to delay an interview with Republican lawmakers about his plan to wear a wire and oust Trump from office is working
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/just-in-goodlatte-and-gowdy-postpone-interview-with-dag-rosenstein/

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      yarpos

      Trey Gowdy is a bit of a legend, a sharp mind and a willingness to call out BS when he hears it. Some of the Youtube clips of him in various committees are priceless.

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    pat

    23 Oct: ClimateChangeNews: Why UN climate science reports have Africa-shaped gaps
    African experts explain the barriers they face to taking part in influential climate science assessments like this month’s blockbuster on 1.5C global warming
    By Sophie Mbugua in Nairobi
    (This article was produced as part of an African reporting fellowship supported by ***Future Climate for Africa)
    Africa is home to one in six of the world’s people and rising. From its sensitive ecosystems to booming cities, the continent is vulnerable to climate change and increasingly important to tackling it…
    Yet fewer than one in ten contributors to a landmark UN report on the science of 1.5C global warming launched this month were African, of whom many were based at universities outside the region.

    A shortage of observational data, high journal fees and lack of compensation for contributors throw up barriers to participation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, experts tell Climate Home News…
    Whereas the IPCC draws confident conclusions about trends in the EU, North America and Australia, there is a lot of uncertainty around African findings. Some chapters have no African authors, or only one…
    The IPCC did not respond to a request for comment…

    The problem starts with patchy raw data. “Climate change is based on long term observations of weather patterns,” says Murombedzi.
    ***“There is very little climate observation infrastructure in Africa, and therefore very little is known about what is actually happening in terms of climate impacts in Africa.”…READ ON
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/10/23/un-climate-science-reports-africa-shaped-gaps/

    ***BUT WE KNOW AFRICANS ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO CAGW!

    FROM A PDF ON FUTURE CLIMATE FOR AFRICA: FCFA is a £20 million (US$30 million) programme funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). It promotes the use of improved medium-to long-term climate information in development projects that are being designed today.

    May 2015: The Conversation: Why Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change
    by Coleen Vogel, Professor of Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute and School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand
    Disclosure: Coleen Vogel, as an academic, receives funding from various funding organisations.
    This article was co-authored by Robert Scholes, a Professor at Wits in the School of APES and in the Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute…

    When it comes to climate change Africa is in the eye of the storm…
    Africa, straddled as it is across the equator, is generally hot…
    Current projections indicate that we can possibly expect warmer and drier conditions in the interior of the sub-continent, and an increase in the magnitude and frequency of thunderstorms in southern Africa…
    http://theconversation.com/why-africa-is-particularly-vulnerable-to-climate-change-41775

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    pat

    23 Oct: Edie.net: UK Power Networks to trial Faraday Grid technology to bolster renewable generation
    UK Power Networks (UKPN) is set to undertake the UK’s first trial of Faraday Grid technology to boost flexibility and efficiency as more renewable power projects come online.
    The innovative technology, developed by Edinburgh-based Faraday Grid, is designed to be installed into existing electricity grids in order to balance the intermittency and volatility of renewable generation. Comprising a network of independent Faraday Exchangers, the technology enables the autonomous self-balancing of the network, making it better equipped for new energy demands driven by trends such as the rise in electric vehicle (EV) chargers.
    Faraday Grid estimates that the concept has the potential to double the amount of renewable generation a grid can carry if it is installed at scale…

    23 Oct: PowerEngineering: Faraday Grid trial could “redefine the electricity grid”
    by Kelvin Ross
    Scotland-based company Faraday Grid has signed a deal with British distribution network operator UK Power Networks for it to trial its potentially ground-breaking technology, also called Faraday Grid.
    Ian Cameron, head of innovation at UK Power Networks, said he recognised that “Faraday’s technology has the potential to be transformational for distribution networks and the wider energy system”.

    The Faraday Grid is an autonomous, self-balancing network installed within an existing electricity grid. It comprises a network of independent autonomous hardware devices called Faraday Exchangers which operate in isolation and are independent of any central network management. As such, the exchanger is designed to replace the function of existing electricity network infrastructure such as transformers, converters, inverters and rectifiers…READ ON
    https://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2018/10/faraday-grid-trial-could-redefine-the-electricity-grid.html

    more here:

    30 May: GreentechMedia: Researchers Validate Product Claims of Mysterious Tech Firm Faraday Grid
    Faraday Grid’s Exchanger technology lived up to its goals of improving power quality and reducing losses on distribution networks.
    by Jason Deign
    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/faraday-grid-research-center-validates-product-claims-of-mysterious-tech#gs.PLxWQks

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    Mark M

    If Antarctica is melting because carbon (sic), it appears Antarctica didn’t get the 97% junk science memo …

    Antarctic storms force ‘longest delays in decades’ for scientists

    “Antarctica has postponed summer, as winter refuses to loosen its grip.

    Antarctica New Zealand (ANZ) staff had been due to fly to Scott Base on October 1, but a series of storms on the southern continent meant it was now hoped the first planes would leave Christchurch on Monday – two weeks late.

    It was the “longest delay in decades for the start of the season”, a statement from ANZ said.”

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/107829196/antarctic-storms-force-longest-delays-in-decades-for-scientists

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    robert rosicka

    It’s happened again but this time to Bridgette Mac Kenzie , ABC ask if you have any aspirations of the top job in the Nats so she clearly responds “NO” , and of course in ABC speak NO means she wants a tilt at the Nats leadership .
    None of these questions have been asked to Labor or Green just the Nats, also Mac Kenzie is pondering a tilt at Indi electorate for a seat in the lower house .
    Spokesperson for Kathy Mac Gowan insists the Mac Kenzie has no chance because the Independent has the seat and the support of those in the seat , not the case at all .
    Mirrabella was the most hated politician we have ever had so it was a matter of who was hated the least won the seat and if the Nats make the move and contest the seat they have a good chance of winning .

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    RickWill

    The linked chart shows how small scale solar is impacting the SA power supply:
    https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgwyxgtFxVG7pf2Xq
    At midday small scale solar is suppling 639MW out of 1153MW demand or 55%. From 1130 to 1430 small solar met more than 50% of the demand.

    The wind generators had their output constrained through a good portion of the daylight hours. That is despite having the capability to export 600MW into the Vic market.

    Increasing small scale solar at household level is beginning to hurt the grid scale wind generators. It must be reasonably easy for those supplying the money how this all plays out. The owners will be lobbying hard for the higher capacity link to NSW.

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      Graeme No.3

      The wind farm owners will be lobbying hard for a link to NSW, but who will pay for it? SA can’t, I don’t see NSW wanting a large supply suddenly appearing in the remote SW corner and having to be transmitted a thousand km to the main users, so that leaves the Federals.
      Will Labor spend on this white elephant as well as the rest?

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      • #
        RickWill

        Who do you think will pay for it!! Electricity consumers of course. It will be part of the grid upgrade that AEMO has in the ISP and will be financed through debt with the asset owners making their 15% return on investment. This simply maintains the ever upward trend in electricity cost.

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      Kinky Keith

      They’ve gotta get money from somewhere.

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      Chad

      Rick, how do we know when the wind output is being restricted deliberately , and not just dropping due to lack of wind ?
      It is highly variable at best of times, and i find it hard to believe that SA would keep the gas generators going at 1+ GW and restrict wind output at the same time , as often appears the case.

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        Graeme No.3

        Chad:

        Direction from the AEMO. South Australia MUST keep enough gas generation going to prevent another State wide blackout, so gas generation only varies but is never allowed below a certain point.
        When the wind blows a small amount is used in SA, then enough to eliminate imports from Victoria.
        The question is “what to do with the rest?”
        The answer is “export it to Victoria (at a low price)”.
        So the interconnector is for balancing supply. The public get stuck with the bill.

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    Jonesy

    Estimating Dorado’s Recoverable Reserves
    You’re Going To Need A Bigger FPSO
    Bedout Basin and Beyond

    From the Wentworth Report and with special reference to Australia’s fuel security and world oil prices. I could imagine a super tanker going around Australia. Visiting Kwinana, Melbourne and Brisbane and returning to fill up again with sweet crude. Put a refinery doing diesel and AVTUR on the Port Hedland mainland to service the mines and we are good for at least another thirty years at current useage rates. This will give us insurance till we master MSRs using the world’s waste nuclear material or our own uranium and thorium as fuel. With unlimited power and heat, we can quite literally make fuel out of air or more likely LNG and/or lignite. We can make as much fresh water in inland Australia where both artesian water and ground water in the Murray Darling basin is too salty.

    This field is proving up to be every bit as big as Bass Strait. Don’t export it , keep it here…we need it bad!

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    • #
      Hanrahan

      I could imagine a super tanker going around Australia. Visiting Kwinana, Melbourne and Brisbane and returning to fill up again with sweet crude.

      Will never happen. Coastal shipping in Oz is prohibitively expensive. It’s the same with LPG, no matter how much gas is reserved for domestic consumption there will never be seaborne trade. It is cheaper to export it and buy it back out of Singapore.

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    pat

    just featured on Bolt Report/Sky:

    23 Oct: Bolt blog: ABC TAKES DOWN SHARMA. NOW GOES FOR ABBOTT
    First, AM interviewed Jane Caro , a global warming crusader who said she might run against Abbott. AM also featured three other guests, all critics of Abbott or his policies: Louise Hislop, who at the last election worked on the Warringah campaign of independent James Mathison; Paul Oosting, head of the Leftist GetUp!; and John Daley, head of the warmist Grattan Institute.

    Then ABC Radio National Breakfast interviewed Marie Rowland, again pushing global warming and also identity politics:
    “If the former Prime Minister decides to run again, he’ll be up against psychologist Marie Rowland, who has announced her candidacy for the Nick Xenophon Team.
    “But it will take a ‘political miracle’ to win Warringah—a blue ribbon Liberal seat which has never been held by a woman.
    Marie Rowland joins RN Breakfast’s Political Editor Alison Carabine.”

    Again, the interview was soft as butter on a warm day. A sample of Carbine’s questioning:
    “You are a local … what is the mood you are picking up on … it is a seat that has never been held by a woman … what are the pressing issues … one of your specialities is well-being and happiness”

    Then there was this extraordinary “question” from this ABC reporter:
    “Gender issues are very much back in the news, courtesy in part of Jamie Briggs and Peter Dutton and there is always a perception, rightly or wrongly, that Tony Abbott has a problem with women. Is there any chance that the battle for Warringah could be in the front-line in the misogyny war, that women outside Warringah could be cheering you on?”…READ ON
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/abc-takes-down-sharma-now-goes-for-abbott/news-story/e6d2146a61eb3a93e0463d2ea5ff492e

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    pat

    also featured on Bolt Report:

    Alberici strikes out…again:

    24 Oct: ABC AM: Coal and oil companies have ‘hijacked’ vital climate change issue: Economist
    By Sabra Lane on AM
    Transcript:
    Professor Stiglitz has spoken to the ABC’s chief economics correspondent, Emma Alberici, ahead of his visit to Australia to collect the Sydney Peace Prize…
    The evidence is overwhelming and I was on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that reviewed the evidence back 1995, and I’ve kept looking at the evidence and you know, the one mistake we made in 1995 was that we didn’t anticipate how fast things were going to change.

    ***We didn’t fully anticipate some of the effects like the increase in weather variability, the hurricanes, the cyclones and it is I think, fundamentally short-sighted not, not to be thinking about this but over the long term, the real wealth of a country is based on the skills, the abilities, the innovation of the citizens and that is going to depend on the investments that you put in your people — not on coal, not on iron ore…

    ***You know, I spent a lot of time in China. They are beginning to wake up to the dangers of coal…
    So, I think there will be a global consensus on eliminating coal and that means it is all the more imperative for Australia to get off coal…

    EMMA ALBERICI: I want to know how you explain the politicisation of climate change as an issue, given so many well regarded economists like yourself indeed — the Nobel Prize in economics has gone to William Norhaus this month, who has pioneered a framework for understanding how the economy and climate interact — and yet on the other side we have this politicisation of the issue such that if you want to reduce carbon emissions, certainly in this country, you’re a green leftie. And if you agree that it is all a bit of alarmist nonsense, then you’re really a true conservative.

    JOSEPH STIGLITZ: Yeah, I really, it is a little bit of a puzzle. You know, there are special interests who make a lot of money out of fossil fuel — coal, oil companies — and they have an economic interest to try to persuade people that its hokum, that it is a liberal conspiracy.
    It’s not. I mean, even in the United States, responsible conservatives have come forward and said we need a carbon tax to discourage the use of carbon — but they’ve recognised that we need, people have George Shultz have recognised that we need carbon tax so the reasonably centre, what you might call the old Reagan Republicans have recognised that climate change should not be politicised.
    It is, you know, the future of our world is at stake…
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/nobel-winning-economist-slams-politicisation-of-climate-change/10422414

    24 Oct: ABC: Joseph Stiglitz warns Australia on economic fallout from fossil fuel dependence
    By chief economics correspondent Emma Alberici
    Ahead of the Columbia University economics professor’s visit to Australia to collect the Sydney Peace Prize, he acknowledged that Australia’s record-breaking 27 years of uninterrupted economic growth owes much to the mining and export of fossil fuels.
    Coal and iron ore are Australia’s top two export earners. This financial year they are expected to generate more than $110 billion in foreign income.
    Professor Stiglitz said it would be “fundamentally short-sighted” not to be thinking about the serious climate change impacts in Australia and around the world and “over the long term, the real wealth of a country is based on the skills, the ability and the innovation of its citizens and that is going to depend on the investments that you put in to your people, not on coal, not on iron ore”…

    Professor Stiglitz will next month collect the Sydney Peace Prize, which will recognise his work in generating a global conversation about the crisis in economic inequality…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-24/stiglitz-warns-australia-economic-fallout-fossil-fuel-dependence/10424878

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      robert rosicka

      Stieglitz says the IPCC have grossly underestimated the impending doom that awaits us .

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      Geoff Sherrington

      Stiglitz seems to have little comprehension of the science involved in all aspects of the mining cycle, from concept exploration studies through to post-production mining rehabilitation. From experience, this hard science is performed quietly and competently, in contrast to the silly kiddy games played by much of climate science.
      Geoff

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        robert rosicka

        Even spellcheck doesn’t like him, what do you expect from an economist trying to be a climate scientist I suppose .

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        • #
          Greebo

          I thought economics was the only discipline required to be a “climate scientist”. Oh, and palaeontology, of course. Mustn’t forget Tim.

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    pat

    WHO WILL HOLD ABC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHINA COMMENTS OF THE MIGHTY JOSEPH STIGLITZ?

    23 Oct: CNBC: Despite climate pledges, China struggles to break coal habit
    by David Stanway, Reuters
    But despite an unprecedented surge of investment in alternative energies, together with caps on coal use and the establishment of “no-coal zones” throughout the country, China’s overall consumption and production (OF COAL, REUTERS?) are again rising…

    But the absolute volumes of both coal and CO2 remain by far the world’s highest, and are still set to rise…
    Coal production has also risen 5.1 percent in the first three-quarters of this year to 2.59 billion tonnes…
    Shenhua’s profits nearly doubled in 2017, while net earnings at rival Yanzhou Coal surged more than 200 percent compared with the previous year…

    But despite closing uneconomical pits, official annual production capability rose to 3.491 billion tonnes by the end of June, up from 3.41 billion tonnes a year earlier, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said this month. Another 976 million tonnes were under construction…

    Though all collieries in Xuzhou have closed, the city’s main mining firm continues to produce large volumes of coal, coal chemicals and coal-fired power, running projects elsewhere in China as well as Bangladesh and Pakistan.
    The Xuzhou Mining Group produced 24 million tonnes of coal last year, up 6.7 percent on the year…
    And while provinces such as Hebei and Shandong have set targets to cut coal use and convert heating systems to cleaner natural gas, others are still approving new coal-fired power plants.

    Coal-fired power has remained the cheapest and most readily available option for many local governments, with many already struggling to find enough natural gas to supply local houses with heat.
    China’s mainly coal-fired thermal power capacity rose 58 gigawatts (GW) from the end of 2016 to the end of August this year, more than half of all new domestic capacity over the period and almost enough to power Australia, NEA data showed.
    According to the China Electricity Council, China added 38.55 GW of coal-fired power capacity in 2017 alone, down 1.42 gigawatts compared with 2016 but still more than the country’s entire nuclear reactor fleet…

    “With renewables ramping up so quickly, it has given the illusion of decarbonisation, but China is falling into the same trap that Germany has fallen into – deploying lots of renewables that have to be backed up with lots of coal-fired power plants,” said Li Ning, nuclear scientist and dean of the College of Energy at Xiamen University.
    With no new commercial reactors approved in nearly three years, local authorities have had little choice but to turn to more cheaper and more reliable coal to provide the baseload…
    “If nuclear can’t keep up, then it is coal,” he said.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/reuters-america-despite-climate-pledges-china-struggles-to-break-coal-habit.html

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      yarpos

      “With renewables ramping up so quickly, …”

      Clearly doesnt look at real world global energy delivery graphs

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    Another Ian

    Another one

    “Airworthy de Havilland Mosquito Restoration Approaches Completion in Canada”

    http://warbirdsnews.com/warbird-restorations/airworthy-de-havilland-mosquito-restoration-approaches-completion-canada.html

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    • #
      RAH

      212 of the “wooden wonders” were built in Australia though they really had some problems. In the end, no matter what they did, the wood and glue just did not hold up well in the tropical environment where the aircraft had to be used to engage the Japanese in the CBI and S. Pacific. I hope that those who want to return that revolutionary aircraft to the air are not so set on tradition and adhering to the original specs that they don’t replace the original glue and sealants with modern adhesives and sealers to combat the ravages of time, moisture, and oxidation. After all, the aircraft they’re restoring will only be the second to be able to take to the air of the few that remain in existence.

      I don’t think many people realize just how important the Mosquito was in so many roles. Several RAF bomber squadrons were equipped with “pregnant Mossies” with widened bomb bays to carry the 4,000 lb. “cookie” light case blockbusters deep into Germany. Night after night they helped keep the pressure on when the heavies were either grounded due to weather or busy elsewhere.

      That being said, I would put the Spitfire at the top of the list of Iconic WW II British aircraft.

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        Graeme No.3

        Well, both the Spitfire and Mosquito weren’t wanted by the Air Ministry (along with the Hurricane, Wellington and the Lancaster). They tried to stop the Spitfire twice until the publicity got too strong so they switched to demanding all new fighters had to have elliptical wings, which shoved up the cost for a marginal improvement.
        Bear in mind that there were really 3 Spitfires with redesigns. The original Spitfire 1 cost £19,000 vs a Messerscmidt at £4,000.

        A little known fact was that the German TA154 was to be a “Mosquito killer” but the British bombed the Goldschmidt factory and they couldn’t get a suitable glue for their plywood with results as reported.

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          RAH

          And so the Aussies and Kiwis struggled on for much longer than necessary with the P-40. At least they got the Beaufighter which did excellent work.

          Another wooden wonder that still exists today is the USS Constitution. Did you know the US government maintains a protected grove of trees, specifically Live Oak, so that there is a supply dedicated for keeping that ship original as close as possible to her 1812 specs when they periodically overhaul it? There were primarily 4 types of wood used in her construction but today Live Oak is very rare and that was the wood used for the hull and structural bracing that gave the ship it’s legendary strength.

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        Another Ian

        Relevant

        “For early production aircraft, the structural assembly adhesive was Casein-based. At a later stage, this was replaced by “Aerolite”, a synthetic urea-formaldehyde type, which was more durable”

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Havilland_Mosquito

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    pat

    23 Oct: Australian: We fiddle, our coal burns across the globe
    by John Williams
    (John Williams is a Nationals senator for NSW)
    Take a look at the facts: Australia has 22 operating coal-fired generating plants of at least 30 megawatts capacity producing 128 million tonnes of CO2 annually, with no plans to construct any more. Compare that with China, our biggest trading partner, which has more than 1000 coal-fired power generating plants operating to the same capacity and a further 130 under construction. These plants emit 4271 million tonnes of CO2. The 130 others due to come online will produce more CO2 than Australia produces. And yet so many people believe that we are going to change the world…

    India has 292 operating coal-fired plants and a further 41 under construction, emitting more than 1000 million tonnes of CO2.
    Facts don’t lie — between 2016 and last year coal-fired generation in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 330 terawatt hours, contributing 66 per cent to increased electricity supply. That is the equivalent of 33 Hazelwoods. These power plants will burn coal, so the options are: do they burn the cleaner, more efficient, higher-energy coal from Australia or do they burn the second-rate, poorer quality coal from overseas that will put more CO2 emissions into the atmosphere?

    This is the crazy scenario we are facing. Coal-fired power generators are being built around the world, but how many are being built in Australia? None. And worse still, we are actually shutting them down. Since Hazelwood shut, prices have doubled in Victoria and NSW, and increased by more than 70 per cent in South Australia, Tasmania and Queensland. And to think that Australia is a country so rich in energy…

    I’m a big supporter of renewable energy on one condition — it competes on a level playing field. The fact is, with renewable energy certificates at $80Mwh, one wind turbine will be paid a $700,000-a-year subsidy by those who are connected to the grid before a single watt of electricity is sold. Families, pensioners, supermarkets, engineering workshops, small businesses, big businesses — all will pay. This is a big advantage to renewable energy at a huge cost to consumers of electricity…

    Another problem we face is that businesses will relocate overseas because of our energy costs, and the country they move to will actually put out more CO2 doing exactly the same job. We lose businesses, jobs and money — and the result is more CO2 emissions. Not a great idea in my book…

    ***We can achieve much more by looking after our farmland (the soil that has to grow our food for thousands of years) and increase the storage of carbon in our soils by good management. As Christine Jones, an expert in regenerative land management, has pointed out, if farmers balance the magnesium and calcium levels in our agricultural soils we can increase soil carbon. Do this over our 450 million hectares of land, increasing the soil carbon by 3 per cent, and that will neutralise our emissions by 100 per cent for ­almost a century.
    This will achieve CO2 abatement and protect our food supply. That is a real solution — a win-win.
    FROM 397 COMMENTS AT TIME OF POSTING:
    David: Onya Wacka!! Let’s get the hell out of the Paris agreement and start using and developing all the resources this country is blessed with.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/we-fiddle-our-coal-burns-across-the-globe/news-story/005e53952c58acb6e9402efb4ff7b4cc

    ***don’t know about his solution, but most commenting are with him on coal.

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    pat

    comment in moderation re: 23 Oct: Australian: We fiddle, our coal burns across the globe

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    pat

    worth a read:

    2 Oct: AfricanArguments: What’s the real story behind the Botswana elephant deaths false claims?
    By Stephen Corry
    (Stephen Corry is the Director of Survival International, the global movement for tribal peoples’ rights)
    While “conservation” is usually seen as a progressive cause in the West, it is often despised in Africa as just more (white) colonial land theft.
    Early in September, international news was awash with the claim that 87 elephants had been “killed by poachers” in Botswana. The story originated from the NGO Elephants Without Borders, which received massive publicity – and presumably donations – as a result. Even the beleaguered UK Prime Minister tweeted the story, while a petition calling for wildlife guards to be re-armed surpassed 150,000 signatures…

    Several prominent scientists in Botswana were also quick to question the BBC report that first carried the claim, saying they could “find no scientific basis for the dramatic assertions made”. In their statement, one of the false claims these experts were particularly keen to debunk was that poaching had increased because wildlife guards had been disarmed. “The Botswana Department of Wildlife and National Parks is still armed,” they emphasised, “but no longer carry automatic assault rifles”…

    Vested interests
    So what’s going on?…READ ON
    https://africanarguments.org/2018/10/02/whats-real-story-behind-botswana-elephants-deaths-fake-news/

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    TdeF

    In Breitbart, I read endless comments that Trump is Hitler. That’s the problem with modern progressives. They have as little knowledge of modern history as they have of science. Adolph led the National Socialists, the NAZIS. The AntiFA group are the brownshirts of the fascist socialists. Book burning was in vogue too, as in Mao’s China and Pol Pot’s Cambodia. Complete intolerance of ideas.

    No, the increase in CO2 is not man made. That is demonstrably wrong. So there is no man made global warming but there is a serious assault on all Western democracies underway, by the UN, the EU and the communist countries. The irony is that as our electricity bills go through the roof, we are all paying for it, against our wishes.

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      RAH

      That kind of hyperbolic BS and the mobs is all the opposition has. Day after day the leftist media organs struggle to come up with new talking points and insults. Day after day they conspire with the democrats to try and bring Trump down or failing that weaken him. And day after day they not only fail but his popularity is increasing even by the measure of their own skewed polls. In the end their problem is that they have no new ideas on how to make things better for the average citizen. All they do is resist everything the current administration is trying to accomplish and ignore those that are having very positive effects. Not happy with insulting Trump and the members of his administration, they have also been repeatedly insulting every voter that supports him. It’s like they could not see how damaging Hillary’s “Deplorables” statement was to her election campaign and instead are doubling down on such insults. It really is grade school playground stuff.

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        TdeF

        I would like to think it has no effect, but repetition is the key. We had the same with a scripted attack on former PM Tony Abbott as a misogynist. Totally without justification, it is just smear tactics. The guilty party again was the media who just loved it. I understand that the media are a little left, but the CNN attacks on Trump are beyond belief. We will see how it affects voting in the half term elections in November.

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    pat

    FakeNewsMSM.

    Obama rallies in Las Vegas, tells CROWD to “remember who started economic growth
    CBS News-22 Oct. 2018
    He told the ROARING crowd to “remember who started” the current trend of economic growth and “the longest streak of job creation on record.”
    He was met with LOUD CHEERS at the arena at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
    “I miss you, too,” he told the ROARING crowd…

    23 Oct: ConservativeTreehouse: sundance: Wow – The Bloom is Really Off The Ruse…
    When I watched this earlier today I noticed something was odd; the background sound and the responses from the visible audience don’t align with the visual as presented.
    Watch. When President Obama is speaking there’s almost no visible reaction; but something more… LISTEN ! There’s almost no audible audience response… it just seems weird…READ ON
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/10/23/wow-the-bloom-is-really-off-the-ruse/#more-155752

    Obama even had the usual “celebrities”:

    Rosie Memos: Forgot to mention J Balvin (who has 24 million followers) and SaltnPepa performed a FREE concert before the grand flatline-ale of O.
    https://twitter.com/almostjingo/status/1054594200769949697

    (Kamala) Harris makes a big first impression in Iowa
    Politico – 1 day ago

    23 Oct: Daily Caller: CNN Reporter Says Kamala Harris Has Gotten A ‘Rock Star Reception’ In Iowa
    by Benny Johnson
    CNN reporter Maeve Reston gushed over Democratic California Sen. Kamala Harris, saying she has gotten a “rock star reception” as she hit the stump in Iowa…
    “She’s really gotten a rock star reception,” Reston said. “Last night in Des Moines, you could really feel that electricity among about 500 people who showed up to see her. at the end of that event, they were just, like, moving toward her in a human crush. So, a lot of love for her here in Iowa.”…
    The language reflects that of ABC reporter Paula Faris, who called Texas Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke a “rock star” who can’t go anywhere “without being noticed.”…
    Monday night, President Trump held a rally for 18,000 in Texas, with thousands more gathering outside. CNN refused go live to the president during the rally.
    https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/23/cnn-reporter-kamala-harris-rock-star-reception/

    when FakeNewsMSM call u a “rock star”!

    Obama’s ‘rock star’ persona boosts U.S. – ABC America
    Jul 23, 2009 – Obama “is really a rock star as a politician,” said John Danforth, the project’s Republican co-chair who served as U.N. ambassador in Bush’s administration

    Obama Heads for Paris and London
    New York Times July 26, 2008
    But for all the rock-star excitement abroad …

    How Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton
    UK Telegraph June 4, 2008
    In December 2006, it was already clear he had become a political rock star

    US elections: Obama wows Berlin crowd with historic speech
    Guardian Jul 24, 2008
    For the man who has brought rock-star charisma to electoral politics

    Barack Obama and the case for charisma
    Christian Science Monitor – Feb 28, 2008
    Pundits of every political stripe have commented on Senator Obama’s “rock-star quality.”

    U.S. celebrates as President Obama vows new era
    CNN 20 Jan, 2009
    President Barack Obama gets rock star’s welcome on Pennsylvania Avenue

    Malcolm Turnbull’s rock star welcome at Christmas street party at Wayside Chapel
    Sydney Morning Herald 25 Dec 2015
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has been welcomed like a rock star at a Christmas street party with Sydney’s self-described biggest family…
    Crowds swarmed the prime minister, hoping for a selfie with the popular local member of parliament…
    “This is a great place,” he announced before hugging Wayside Chapel’s Reverend Graham Long to cheers from the crowd…

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    pat

    23 Oct: Redstate: Media Hides Laughable Turnout for Obama’s Nevada Speech While Trump/Cruz Rally Saw Thousands in Attendance
    by Brandon Morse
    Former President Barack Obama’s recent speech attacking Republicans and the President — though he never mentioned Donald Trump by name — was widely covered by the media, seemed like it was a must-see/must-attend event for Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen, currently struggling against incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller.

    By the media’s account, Obama was surrounded by energized Democrats and enthusiastic voters. The bleachers behind him were packed to the brim, and the people in front were numerous.
    Or were they?
    According to some cell phone footage, the media’s packed house was a camera trick…

    This is reminiscent of the media tricks played for the Hillary Clinton campaign, where they literally had to add in walls to the back of the meager crowd she gathered to make it seem like she had more attendees than she did…
    https://www.redstate.com/brandon_morse/2018/10/23/media-hides-laughable-turnout-obamas-nevada-speech-trumpcruz-houston-rally-saw-thousands-attendance/

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    pat

    23 Oct: Quartz: The EU has spent nearly $500 million on technology to fight climate change—with little to show for it
    By Akshat Rathi
    In a report to be published later today, the European Court of Auditors will say that the EU spent more than €424 million ($486 million) over the past decade decade fruitlessly trying to establish carbon-capture technology. The EU considers the technology crucial to hit its climate goals, which will require the union’s member states to reach net-zero emissions within decades…

    The auditors’ report investigated two EU programs: the European Energy Programme for Recovery (EEPR), with a budget of €4 billion, and the New Entrants’ Reserve 300 (NER300), with a budget of €2.1 billion. Both were launched in 2009 after the financial crisis to aid economic recovery and move the needle on climate action. Their goals were specifically to support the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and new types of renewable energy. (This article will focus on CCS spending. The report (LINK) has details about the other investments.)…

    The good news is that the EU will replace NER300 with an “Innovation Fund,” which may have a much larger kitty (up to €10 billion) and it will take on board the mistakes made earlier…READ ON
    https://qz.com/1431655/the-eu-spent-e424-million-on-carbon-capture-with-little-to-show-for-it/

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    pat

    23 Oct: Guardian: Uber to introduce clean air fee to all London rides
    Ride-hailing app to charge extra 15p per mile to help drivers pay for electric cars
    by Gwyn Topham, Transport correspondent
    The ride-hailing app hopes to create a £200m fund from the levy to encourage almost half of its 45,000 drivers to use fully electric vehicles by 2021. The firm hopes its London fleet will be fully electric by 2025…
    The fund was announced as part of a clean air plan, as Uber continues its efforts to prove itself to Transport for London after it initially decided not to renew its licence to operate last year…

    Uber’s chief executive, Dara Khosrowshahi: “It represents our wanting our partnership in London not only to be a strong partnership but trailblazing in solving air pollution, which every great city in the world is struggling with, and our mayor here in London is looking to improve,” he said.
    However, Khosrowshahi said Uber would continue to resist proposals to make its drivers liable for London’s congestion charge, unless black cabs were also forced to pay…
    A driver using Uber’s app for an average of 40 hours per week could expect to save about £3,000 towards a new electric vehicle in two years…

    All this is aimed at eventually replacing car ownership itself.
    “Cars are unused 95% of the time and take up enormous amounts of space, in parking etc – we want to give that space back to the city.”
    Uber is also offering a diesel scrappage bonus of £1,500 in credit for its app to the first 1,000 people in London to scrap a pre-Euro 4 diesel vehicle.
    Khosrowshahi said: “It’s our goal to help people replace their car with their phone by offering a range of mobility options – whether cars, bikes, scooters or public transport – all in the Uber app.”…READ ON
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/oct/23/uber-clean-air-fee-london-rides-electric-cars

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    pat

    24 Oct: ClimateChangeNews: Megan Darby: Time capsule: 30 years ago, Malta put climate on the UN agenda
    His references to “mankind” are a little dated (hello, half of humanity!) but the key messages have stood the test of time.
    It is depressing that a situation Vincent “Ċensu” Tabone presented as “urgent” in 1988 continues to deteriorate three decades later – albeit with some causes for hope.
    Malta’s foreign minister was the first to put climate change on the agenda at the UN General Assembly on this day, 30 years ago.
    “My government decided to take action at this session of the General Assembly due to the urgent need to conserve climate in the interests of mankind by protecting it against negative man-made changes,” he said, according to the transcript (LINK WITH RESPONSES BY SIR CRISPEN TICKELL, MICHAEL COSTELLO AUSTRALIA’S AMBASSADOR TO THE UN, ETC)…

    There was some mild disagreement over the legal framing of the issue and its institutional home; nobody disputed the underlying science…
    The vulnerability of small islands like the Maldives was mentioned. So was the potential of nuclear and solar power to displace coal…

    It would be easy to conclude that the UN has failed. The pioneers of climate diplomacy certainly underestimated the countervailing forces. But the process started that day did eventually, in 2015, yield an international pact that most of the world – don’t mention the US, or indeed Brazil – is committed to.
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/10/24/time-capsule-30-years-ago-malta-put-climate-un-agenda/

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    Dave in the States

    This interview with Pat Michaels was aired on national TV Sunday night in the USA:

    https://www.foxnews.com/transcript/dr-patrick-michaels-on-the-truth-about-global-warming.amp

    This is the link to the transcript. I could not link to the full interview film.

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      TdeF

      What I find amazing with these discussions is the tacit acceptance without any sort of proof that the steady increase in carbon dioxide in the 20th and 21st centuries is man made. “Putting more Carbon dioxide in the air”.

      Sure Michaels raises the lack of tropospheric warming, the equatorial hot spot, the greening of the planet, the inbuilt biases in the models,the total failure of the models but accepts the most outrageous idea, the tacit acceptance that the steady CO2 increase is man made.

      This acceptance is almost universally true, even among famous scientists and sceptics. In fact it is the most outrageous fallacy.

      Sure they go on to debunk the alleged warming effects of CO2, especially in the first half of the 20th century, but almost universally accept the premise that the CO2 increase is man made. Why? Why apply all that logic after accepting the fallacy of a man made global carbon dioxide increase. It does not even rate a mention. The IPCC pushes this same fallacy by ignoring totally the rapid exchange of gases between the oceans and the thin air.

      Then the total lack of correlation between CO2 levels and 30 years of vast expense in reducing CO2 levels. They still measure human ‘emissions’ without demonstrating any correlation between human ‘emissions’ and CO2 levels. After thirty years and the building of 350,000 windmills with no effect, the advice is to build more, faster.
      There is no attempt at evidence or measuring the results of what has been done. We just told to do more, much more without any evidence that we have done anything at all.

      There is almost no fossil fuel CO2 in the air. That should end every argument, but people seem to love to talk profoundly about everything else.

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        TdeF

        Consider all the fish in the sea. They all have to breathe exactly as we do. Oxygen in and Carbon Dioxide out.

        So where do the fish get their oxygen? Why don’t they run out of air and drown? It happens in a fish tank quickly enough. As the presenter says, hotter water can hold less oxygen. It’s all obvious stuff.

        So everyone knows how rapid the exchange of gases really is, how essential but according to the IPCC, it doesn’t happen. CO2, O2 are trapped on each side of the water and ice world which covers 75% of the planet. We just know it isn’t true.

        Then if CO2 moves quickly and freely, what determines how much stays on each side? Henry’s law. Given that the amount of CO2 in the ocean is 50x that in the air, it’s game over for man made CO2 levels and man made Global Warming. Warmer water means more CO2 in the air, not the other way around. Still people just accept CO2 levels are set by motor cars and coal power stations. Why scientists accept this is a real puzzle.

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          RickWill

          TdeF asked:

          Then if CO2 moves quickly and freely, what determines how much stays on each side? Henry’s law.

          CO2 does not move quickly and freely in the oceans. The mixing depth is no more than 100m. Diffusion is a very slow process. There is never equilibrium because the ocean surface temperature has a range of 30K and is moving via currents across vast areas over decade long periods.

          The ocean surface has cooled in the last two years but CO2 continues to increase at the same rate as the previous two years when the surface was warming.

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      RickWill

      I checked the Tmax output from the Russian GCM that Pat Michaels referenced:
      http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icmip5_tas_Amon_inmcm4_rcp85_0-360E_-90-90N_n_+++_1975:2020_a.png
      It is not far off RoySpencer’s UAH satellite data.

      The CSIRO model captures ENSO better. For some reason the Russian model does not even have the 1998 peak despite that being before the CIMP5 model runs.

      Although most models and the average are diverging from reality, the Russian and CSIRO models are reasonable. Probably a few more years before they are fully discredited unless there is dramatic cooling sooner without some obvious cause like a volcano cloud.

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    Mary E

    It seems we’ve all been suffering a delusion regarding how science really works. A priest teaching philosophy and climate science is ketting us know how science really works.

    (students he meets) ““Isn’t science about objective proof and evidence and certainty,” they ask with a quizzical look. The question then trails off but the implication is obvious, “and isn’t your faith about subjective, personal belief and values?”

    Their quizzical looks arise from a misunderstanding about the nature of scientific knowledge, and more generally about what it means to make a truth claim, that lies behind climate scepticism.

    https://theconversation.com/a-priest-says-sceptics-should-stop-demanding-proof-of-climate-change-as-thats-not-how-science-works-104413

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      joseph

      Thanks for posting that link Mary E.

      Can’t say I didn’t enjoy reading that while enjoying my morning cuppa . . . . .

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    Hanrahan

    Democrats know the blue wave has already dissipated, washed up against the Trump wall. We know this because they are making with the excuses already. Holder stated, “with regard to gerrymandering and voter suppression, you are seeing a minority in this country taking power that is not legitimately theirs.”

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    yarpos

    Just got a letter from my values supplier of electricity advising of the new tariffs at the end of my contract.
    Line items going up a lazy 33% to 65% , with a nett increase if applied to my last bill of 46%.

    I feel churn coming on. I have sent them a no thanks, if you can do better let know message and we will see what happens. I suspect not much.

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      yarpos

      OOPs! forgot my traditional thank you to Lily D’Ambrosio (VIC Energy Minister), for all that “downward pressure of energy prices”

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