JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Scottish summers not doing anything they haven’t done for 800 years already

Gotta love a long unbroken proxy.

Scientists looked at 44 pines sites across the Scottish Highlands and used their tree rings to create a continuous temperature series for the last 810 years. Showing admirable restraint, they did not paste on adjusted thermometer records to create a hockey stick effect. Instead we can see that Scottish summers were just as warm in the 1300s, the 1280s and around 1500 as well.

The rate of warming is not unprecedented. The temperature is not unusual. But thermometers don’t tell the same story as the tree rings in the last 50 years. They both can’t be right. Either the tree rings are always unreliable thermometers or the thermometers are placed near ice cream trucks and adjusted up-the-kazoo?

Thanks to CO2Science:

Rydval et al. extended “the previously published Scottish dendroclimatic record (Hughes et al., 1984) by nearly 500 years,” in order to create an 810-year-long proxy over the period AD 1200-2010. The reconstruction was derived from a network of 44 Scots pine (Pinus Sylvestris) sites across the Scottish Highlands from both living and subfossil samples that correlated well with summer (July-August) temperatures.

In placing the most recent warming of the instrumental period in context, Rydval et al. write that it “is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s and 1730s.”

Looking at Scottish summer temperatures what we see is 800 years of ignorance

Scottish summer temperatures, history, graph, tree rings, medival times.

….

 

REFERENCE

Rydval, M., Loader, N.J., Gunnarson, B.E., Druckenbrod, D.L., Linderholm, H.W., Moreton, S.G., Wood, C.V. and Wilson, R. 2017. Reconstructing 800 years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings. Climate Dynamics 49: 2951-2974.

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Scottish summers not doing anything they haven't done for 800 years already, 9.6 out of 10 based on 89 ratings

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132 comments to Scottish summers not doing anything they haven’t done for 800 years already

  • #
    RicDre

    “Either the tree rings are always unreliable thermometers or the thermometers are placed near ice cream trucks and adjusted up-the-kazoo?”

    I vote for “tree rings are always unreliable thermometers” however that does not exclude the possibility “thermometers are placed near ice cream trucks and adjusted up-the-kazoo”

    192

    • #
      PeterS

      I vote for a psychological problem by those who are adamant that their research findings categorically confirm CAGW is real.

      290

      • #
        TdeF

        There is no money in finding the reverse. In fact you might lose your job for even suggesting that it might not be true, as with Dr. Peter Ridd.

        280

        • #
          TdeF

          It’s an irony. The much vaunted peer review means that if your peer disagrees or even dares question the result or the method, they are expelled from the university. It is non collegiate to question anyone’s conclusions.

          282

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          Never get in the way of a fast moving $444 Million.

          240

          • #
            TdeF

            It’s great to read that they had to make the application after the grant was announced. It must be hard to work out what to do with an unexpected 7 1/2 tons of gold. That’s a lot of jewellery. You could have real goldfish.

            210

        • #
          Hivemind

          Never get between a climate change research and his grant.

          30

    • #

      These ‘non-climate scientists’ clearly chose the wrong trees to assess. Therefore the results cannot be taken seriously.

      200

  • #
    Sean

    Tree rings tell you about how good the growing seasons were. Tells nothing of winter and little of late fall ane early spring. I suspect it tells you little about night time temps even in the summer. Kind of like solar panels, on duty 15% of the time.

    150

    • #
      Dave in the States

      But this much larger sample size tree ring data set has not been used to justify remaking the world’s entire economic model, destroying safe, reliable, and cheap, energy systems, flushing trillions, with a T, down the drain, impoverishing generations yet unborn, and leaving today’s poor with little hope.

      290

    • #

      Yep. This tells us how some pines fared in their growing season, and we can guess at how rain and warmth balanced out for growth. Nice info, good to mention, useful to file away. Interesting to see that dip coinciding with so many reports of cold around 1700, but once we start trying to wrench every wriggle around to fit historical events, CET etc we become like the bunglers, shills and data-torturers of the climatariat.

      Good observation, Sean. And a good reminder from Dave about how truly wicked the climatariat is. Sometimes we over-emphasise the dopey quality and downplay the sheer wickedness of it all.

      170

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      Wouldn’t it be great to read an article about how you determine a temperature from a tree ring.

      I’ve been reading WUWT for what seems like 20 years now. I’ve seen several articles criticising tree rings and temperature, but never an article explaining how they attempt to do it.

      Lake sediment seems far more logical to me. At least you get pollen and organic layers which tell of growth spurts in the catchment region.

      80

    • #
      Phillip Bratby

      Much less than 10% in Scotland.

      20

    • #

      correct. Almost like you read the article and Jo’s opener. July-August.

      40

  • #
    Ian Wilson

    Jo,

    Do you ever get the feeling that you are talking to a crowd of blithering idiots at a mental institution when you try and discuss climate issues with people in the mainstream science community? You present unassailable facts to them and all they do is cover their ears and say over and over again “The Science is settled…the Science is settled….the Science is settled..”. It’s as though these words have some magical power to ward off evil spirits like evidence, data, and rational arguments.

    461

    • #

      Climate reconstructions are not facts.

      Just as climate models are not data.

      If there is no way to
      verify or falsify
      the reconstruction, then it is
      not even real science.

      Reconstructions are educated guesses
      by people with (usually) unknown biases,
      and (usually) unknown integrity.

      I certainly wonder if 44 tree rings
      could be justified for determining
      the average temperature
      of Scotlan’s summers (I doubt it).

      Temperature reconstructions tell us
      very little, other than the temperature
      varies, probably with large margins
      of error in the data …
      and the variations seem to have
      no correlation with CO2 levels.

      Perhaps temperature reconstructions,
      as a large group of studies
      do tell us a lot about
      the alleged CO2-temperature
      relationship
      that “exists in the future climate”,
      or so we are told,
      but does not exist in the past !

      My climate change blog,
      not as good as Jo Nova, of course,
      with over 19,500 page views so far:
      http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com

      140

      • #
        Peter C

        19,501 page views.

        Well done. Keep up the good work.

        80

        • #

          Thank you
          A climate blog is not work
          because refuting the leftists
          is fun.

          Yesterday my wife speculated
          that I have one rapid fan
          who has viewed my climate blog
          19,500 times — nice to have a wife
          with a sense of humor!

          00

    • #
      el gordo

      Ian your prediction appears to be coming good, this from BoM.

      ‘Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict warming of the tropical Pacific is likely to recommence in the coming weeks. Most models suggest El Niño thresholds are likely to be reached by the end of the year, with the majority suggesting these thresholds could be met by mid to late spring.’

      60

      • #
        Graeme#4

        Lately it seems every year our Bureau Of Mendacity predicts yet another El Niño, and no doubt 2018 will come and go without one. Last time I looked, the ENSO meter was swinging back to centre.

        31

        • #
          el gordo

          That is true, whoever gets to correctly predict ENSO behaviour years in advance, with a simple explanation of the mechanism, will be greatly honoured. It being a boon for Australian agriculture.

          There is talk around the traps that we should expect a strong La Nina by 2020.

          10

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘…no doubt 2018 will come and go without one.’

          What about a Modoki El Nino?

          10

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Ian Wilson:

      The Science doesn’t settle, it floats. A tour of your local sewerage works will prove this.

      90

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Yes.

      The medical profession is very similar too. If its not signed off by the powers that be, its verbotten.

      40

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Tree rings seem to be a favorite “proxy” as Jo called them. But how do you calibrate such a thing as tree rings or tree anything?

    There must be some magic reference tree somewhere. They must keep it well hidden because no one has ever caught a picture of it. I imagine it would have a sign on it

    MAGIC REFERENCE TREE

    so everyone could identify it.

    Why does science go so far out on a limb or in this case a tree ring? This time they got an answer I think they didn’t want. They must have calibrated to the wrong reference tree.

    I’m only sure of one thing. Between us, neither they nor I know what were talking about. ;-)

    80

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      It’s all so futile. Everyone knows that temperatures always go up.

      40

    • #
      GreatAuntJanet

      But wouldn’t you have to cut the Magic Reference Tree down, to actually reference it and count them rings?

      32

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        I would think, since it’s magical, it would simply announce the result of a calibration verbally. No muss, no fuss and no bother. And maybe today that tree has a USB or even an ethernet port if not both. Think of the possibilities then.

        Honestly, I can calibrate the onion rings I had on my hamburger last night with any good onion from the grocery store. But tree rings?

        Needless to say I’m worn out with tree rings being substituted for ignorance of what the past was really like.

        Apology to anyone who doesn’t think I’m taking this seriously but fact of the matter is, I’m not. And I can’t. There is nothing left to do but ridicule.

        60

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Ridicule has its place. I ask them questions to justify thier scientific position. They hate that because they cant.

          I do think soon we will have a Klimate Krystal Nacht……the leftists are a nasty bunch and gaining a lot of power.

          40

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        Maybe they did an ultrasound on it?

        30

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      At least I’m 97% certain that everyone knows temperatures always go up.

      30

    • #
      yarpos

      I will go out on a limb and suggest that they use the the most current rings compared with measured temps and back track. But then again sometimes I cant see the forest for the trees, and my suggestions are not rooted in firm logic.

      70

      • #
        MudCrab

        Is this a new branch of science? If it is I haven’t twigged. I started to research but got stumped and so I just assumed that you wood know.

        (cough)

        I’ll get my coat.

        60

    • #
      NB

      Oh, wow, so that is why that tree in my garden has a sign hanging from its long and ancient branches saying ‘MAGIC REFERENCE TREE’. I always thought it was something to do with Enid Blyton.

      91

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        NB:

        That’s because whenever someone says “temperatures are rising because of CO2″ or “this is due to climate change” you see a lot of Noddies. And Big Ears wondering if this is a new direction for getting funds.

        60

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        NB,

        If you really have such a tree, and I’ve no real doubt that you do, then your comment is my five star pick for today.

        I have to stay in character though and be at least a little bit skeptical — about 3%.

        And I said that before looking up Enid Blyton, whom I have never heard of until now.

        Good job, NB. :-)

        30

        • #
          PeterPetrum

          Never heard of Enid Blyton! Or Noddy? Or Big Ears? Or the Little Red Car? Or Noddy and Big Ears going to bed together……….. I had better stop there or the Thought Police will swoop on my Internet Server.

          00

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            I apparently missed a lot of interesting “children’s” stories didn’t I?

            I guess we all have to miss out on something. But I think I should look up some of Enid’s work.

            I promise I’ll be sneaky and avoid any link back to your ISP. Being disconnected in this computer crazy world is worse than death.

            00

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              My reading was, “The Little Engine That Could,” sort of stuff. A little later I became interested in how stuff works and with a library card opening the world to me I could soon tell you how your TV set worked or repair a radio, at least with some luck and a tube tester. Remember those things that needed high voltage and had to warm up before the radio or TV would work? You’ll get a blank stare if you mention vacuum tube to any youngster today.

              I got my son a book called, “How Things Work” and read to him from it before going to bed for quite a while. To my surprise he still has it and says it was his favorite book.

              So you never know.

              00

    • #

      At Climate Nuremberg from the wa-ay back machine,
      October 30, 2013, by Brad Keyes.

      Ode to a Bristlecone Pine.

      What good is that wood?
      That wood is no good.
      Would you graph that wood?
      I don’t think I would.

      50

    • #
      Komrade Kuma

      I think the reference tree , aka the ‘tree of knowledge’ might be the same one that grew apples Satan said were all freebies. ‘The knowledge’ of course being to never, ever trust any so and so who starts telling you that trees can predict the future or other such crap, i.e. that skepticism is the stuff of the tree of life.

      10

  • #
    TedL

    Rising levels of CO2 since 1950 or whenever has resulted in the well-documented phenomenon of “global greening.” Increasing CO2 is changing the way that plants are growing. How does this affect the growth of the rings in Scot pines and other trees? I don’t know, but I bet there is some change, of increasing magnitude, with more CO2. This causes me to question the comparability of tree ring data since 1950 with that prior.

    151

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      No doubt Ted there have always been similar fluctuations in CO2.

      Caused by temperature variations.

      KK

      61

  • #
    Mark M

    “HUNGER STONES” EMERGE IN DROUGHT-PARCHED EUROPE WITH ETCHED WARNINGS OF IMPENDING FAMINE

    The rocks are etched with dates going back to the 1600s — the Maunder Minimum.

    More than a dozen “hunger stones” have been found in the Elbe River. 

    The stones recorded low water levels dating back to the 1600s and warn of impending hardships.

    Due to scorching temperatures, the water in the Czech river has dropped, revealing boulders that were once used to record low water levels.

    https://electroverse.net/hunger-stones-emerge-in-drought-parched-europe-with-etched-warnings-of-impending-famine/

    via tom nelson:
    “Before 1900, the following droughts are commemorated on the stone: 1417, 1616, 1707, 1746, 1790, 1800, 1811, 1830, 1842, 1868, 1892, and 1893″

    In what year did natural droughts stop and CO2-induced droughts allegedly begin?

    130

    • #
      PeterS

      In what year did natural droughts stop and CO2-induced droughts allegedly begin?

      When Rudd was first elected PM.

      100

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Is there any evidence that they tried eating those “hunger stones”? Hunger can drive people to extreme measures.

      While in the army I frequently ate meals made out of Spam or would have to go hungry. It’s a pretty grim prospect… …Spam.

      50

  • #
    Patrick healy

    It is futile to try and convert the true believers.
    Only last night I had a heated discussion with the youngest of my very “withit” grandsons.
    He is a second year student at one of Scotland’s most prestigious universities studying electrical engineering.
    Our subject was carbon dioxide and he would not believe he exhaled it and that it is plant food.
    He has been completely indoctrinated through the socialist schooling system here.
    There is no hope for any semblance of realism returning to this little socialist outpost in the near future.

    251

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Frightening.

      101

      • #
        wal1957

        Indeed it is.
        Basic human biology not being taught in the schooling system.

        It appears to be very common now that the ‘youngsters’ are not able to total 3 different numbers in their head without the aid of a calculator. It says a lot about the education system these days.

        I recently read about some UNI journalist graduates who had applied for a job at a newspaper.They were unable to answer some very basic questions. Simply amazing!
        The link is here:
        https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/careers/are-you-smarter-than-a-journalist-comically-underprepared-candidates-fail-basic-knowledge-quiz/news-story/5861cc82d0fe0a8f39be526da5c1c845

        The future is bleak!

        80

        • #
          sophocles

          Oops. I only made 10.
          (1,5,7,8,11,14,15,16,17,21)
          # 11 was a wild lucky guess…and I should claim only half a mark for # 21 because I only got “November” for that. so that’s 9½ which is well less than 50%.

          But then:
          I don’t watch netball, AFL, or Soccer, in fact, nothing which uses a ball except cricket and only when there’s no under-arm bowling. Aussie politician’s names are more or less meaningless—more rather than less—to me (I’ve learnt about three: Abbott, Turnbull and um, um, The Famous Wots’isname) as are their electorates and home locations.

          Somehow, I don’t think I will be applying for that journo’s job :-)

          In fact, I’m not resident in West Island, and last visited it in 1990-1991.

          40

          • #
            Annie

            Yes, if you don’t watch telly, don’t like ‘pop’music’, and lack an interest in sport, it does rather reduce one’s results doesn’t it?!

            70

            • #
              Annie

              Another version of University Challenge or Brain of Britain?

              20

              • #
                sophocles

                I rather enjoyed Master Mind way back when. I once did better on someone’s specialist subject than they did. I couldn’t stop grinning for a week. :-)

                I do like some modern music but my tastes there are far from catholic. They’re more aligned with Thomas Tallis, Clarke, Handel, the Purcells, Palestrina &c from the beginning and down through the centuries and major composers from JS Bach & Sons (Inc) to Britten and the many in between.

                The acoustics of those grand cathedrals have to be heard to be appreciated.

                30

              • #
                Annie

                Much the same here Sophocles. I love the sound of Tallis, Byrd, Palestrina and a Dutch fellow whose name I can never remember how to spell! Very soothing on a long-haul flight.
                I just love the sound in a Cathedral; a very rare treat for me now, living where we do.

                00

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Its a bit like the joke of NAPLAN. The problem is that people think a standardized test is the go, the problem is its just a cover for another intrusive UN thing. Interestingly, the home of UN-hugging, the ACT did poorly. Says a lot.

          The interesting point here is the UN flunkies want it to stay ( they love being able to track people and their thoughts after all, and the UN is committed to basically having a dossier on every human eventually – you have to ask why….India sent all its iris scans of all people to the UN – why?), but those of us who realized it was just another pointless UN-driven intrusion into our lives, want to dump it on its rear end in the bin, next to CAGW, where it belongs. Gullard was deeply involved in it and continues to be involved in the UN “Education” space. That says enough for me.

          http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-27/done28099t-e28098ditche28099-naplan3a-researchers-urg/10166538

          “A pair of Australian National University researchers have urged governments not to give up on NAPLAN data, as the nationwide literacy and numeracy test is reviewed.

          A new analysis of results from 2012 to 2016 found the ACT underperformed across every socio-economic group and across both government and non-government schools, compared to similar areas in the country.

          Researchers Professor Andrew Macintosh and Debra Wilkinson said NAPLAN data needs to remain public, so that issues like this can be picked up.

          The researchers called for a Government inquiry to investigate what is causing Canberra’s underperformance — and to determine whether the ACT Government can improve how it uses NAPLAN data.

          “I don’t see any great evidence of a desire and a willingness to use it in a way that drives better school performance,” Professor Macintosh said.

          A national review of NAPLAN data is being led by ACT Education Minister Yvette Berry.

          The test — say at by Year 3,5, 7 and 9 students across Australia — has been highly controversial since it was introduced 10 years ago, and the Australian Education Union (AEU) called for its future to be assessed.”

          32

    • #
      Eddie

      Well if he is studying Electrical Engineering there is hope.

      40

    • #
      RickWill

      Electrical engineers are in high demand as many countries strive to get electricity from the sun and air. Eliminating carbon as a source of high density energy requires societie’s total commitment to that task. Essentially life will totally revolve around extracting energy from those ubiquitous , but low density sources.

      50

    • #
      Latus Dextro

      Out to dinner with a young Australian couple who maintained Aboriginal culture was as rich as Western culture, who had no knowledge of the Korean conflict, the Vietnam conflict, PolPot, and who thought their grandfather was racist but altogether a “lovely man” and expressed their unrestrained pride in their self-professed penal history.
      Little knowledge of history, even less knowledge of any distinction between race, culture and ethnicity. Scant education. Absence of critical thought. Insight – nil.
      No surprise.

      21

  • #
    TdeF

    Looks just like a Hockey Stick. On its side.

    80

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    Actually, the trees are probably a better proxy for “climate”, rather than for temperature. But, so what; it’s not the sceptics that have made the two synonymous in the public mind.

    150

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    Perhaps, at last, We have some real science to look at and ponder.
    We
    The graph makes climate change and CO2 hysteria fade away into irrelevance.

    It’s almost like Science from the sixties.

    Real.

    KK

    80

  • #
    Ruairi

    Eight hundred years of tree-rings,
    In Scotland reveal a few things,
    No hockey-stick effect,
    Which alarmists detect,
    When alarmists are pulling the strings.

    170

  • #
    NB

    Scandalous. I hereby decree that all graph paper shall have upwardly curving lines towards the right hand edge of the sheet. Penalty for non-compliance: loss of employment, ridicule, eternal damnation, and, in the words of dear Corey Bradshaw, I will put you against the wall.

    90

    • #
      PeterS

      Semi exponential graph paper as distinct form semi log graph paper. Rarely used but would be suitable for global warming alarmists.

      60

      • #
        sophocles

        Semi exponential graph paper as distinct form semi log graph paper. Rarely used but would be suitable for global warming alarmists.

        Wouldn’t they become bored with drawing straight lines all the time?

        10

        • #
          PeterS

          On a semi exp graph the lines would be curving upwards even more so like a rocket. On a semi log graph it would be somewhat straight.

          10

  • #
    JoKaH

    Remember the old song – “I talk to the trees – that’s why they put me away”

    50

  • #
    Antoine D'Arche

    Noh! Yooo doon’t say! Tha canna be right!? But, gloobal waarming!

    70

  • #
    Mark M

    Historians know that rainy and muddy conditions helped the Allied army defeat the French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte at the Battle of Waterloo.

    The June 1815 event changed the course of European history.

    Two months prior, a volcano named Mount Tambora erupted on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa, killing 100,000 people and plunging the Earth into a ‘year without a summer’ in 1816.

    Electrified volcanic ash from eruptions can ‘short-circuit’ the electrical current of the ionosphere – the upper level of the atmosphere that is responsible for cloud formation.

    Now, Dr Matthew Genge from Imperial College London has discovered that electrified volcanic ash from eruptions can ‘short-circuit’ the electrical current of the ionosphere – the upper level of the atmosphere that is responsible for cloud formation.

    The findings, published today in Geology, could confirm the suggested link between the eruption and Napoleon’s defeat.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/187828/napoleons-defeat-waterloo-caused-part-indonesian/

    60

    • #
      Radical Rodent

      ‘cos, of course, rainy and muddy conditions were of no hindrance to the allied armies. Sheesh , there are some truly desperate attempts to not give credit where credit is due; next, it will be the glorious summer of 1940 is what wrecked the Luftwaffe’s hopes over Britain, and a wet weekend in Tobruk put paid to Rommel’s ambitions.

      20

  • #
    PeterS

    Another issue with tree ring data is two trees side by side side can display widely different patterns. I wonder if the relevant researches use an honest and truly scientific approach in selecting and filtering the data.

    70

    • #
      TdeF

      I guess the point is that someone without Manne’s unique vision and performing independent and objective analysis of different tree rings comes to the same conclusions as everyone else. There is no unusual global warming. The handle is not flat and the hockey stick head is missing.
      Besides Mann’s graph proved nothing, even with bolted on data. Coincidence is not causality. Coincidence is not proof.
      (How did someone pass peer review in a PhD with made up data?)

      You would think the scientific community would want actual proof of that the increase in CO2 levels is man made. In fact it is not true.

      90

      • #
        PeterS

        I followed Steve McIntyre‘s detailed studies and commentary on Mann’s hockey stick research over 10 years ago. It turns out there are several errors of statistical analysis made by Mann. At one stage there was a ferocious verbal fight between the two. Of course McIntyre won the argument hands down but Mann refused to admit defeat. Here’s one of many examples where McIntyre proved Mann was wrong:
        https://climateaudit.org/2007/06/09/mannomatic-smoothing-and-pinned-end-points/

        80

        • #
          TdeF

          Boundary conditions are arbitrary, without justification and affect everything. When using tree rings to predict, it is wrong to just bolt data onto a curve at any time. Anything could happen in fact.

          Now two decades after Mann’s analysis, this is all history. Literally.
          We know what happened from 1988 to 2018 and Mann was wrong. Therefore his data was wrong. His science was wrong. Argument over.

          Man made Global Warming is disproven. By simple observation. So why is it continuing?
          Or is it now Climate Change?

          90

      • #
        PeterS

        As a side note McIntyre conducts extremely detailed forensics on various topics. He is highly recommended. Although OT one of his latest articles examines the report from WHO regarding the alleged gas bombing in Douma where 500 people were supposed to have exhibited symptoms consistent with suffocation by poison gas. His conclusion: fake news.
        https://climateaudit.org/2018/05/25/who-on-douma/#more-23865

        70

      • #
      • #
        • #
          TdeF

          Oops. “Don’t use my image”. Only a caricature on a balloon. This one mentioned the missing Medieval Warming and Maunder Minimum and Michael’s trick. All essential part of Mann’s fabricated Hockey stick. If you did such things in medical research, you would be prosecuted as a criminal. In climate research, it is just a bit naughty.

          60

      • #
        theRealUniverse

        (How did someone pass peer review in a PhD with made up data?)
        They knew it was fake. Setup in the first place to prove an agenda. They should [snip. face justice maybe? Jo]. Maybe Monckton can get the prosecution of the IPCC [snip] going as he suggested before.

        10

  • #
    wal1957

    Loved your comments on the last graph Jo.
    I had a quiet giggle to myself.

    What you have written is true tho.

    Climate models do not know what caused any of the warming/cooling cycles, but for heavens sake, do not tell the people that!

    Have climate models predicted anything correctly yet?

    I have a prediction for you.
    My electricity bill will go up again next year…and the year after…etc.
    However, 97% of politicians disagree with me! I wonder why?

    100

  • #
    pat

    24 Aug: NoTricksZone: Arctic Summer Sea Ice Growth Trend Extends Another Year …Greenland Summer One Of Coldest In 30 Years!
    By P Gosselin
    Our Japanese skeptic blogger and good friend Kirye reports using the data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) that peak summer Arctic sea ice volume upward growth trend has been extended yet another year – now 12 years…
    Naturally alarmists, wishing all this good news away, like to roll out the PIOMASS chart to keep the alarms on life support. However, the PIOMASS chart conveniently only goes back to the peak of Arctic sea ice, 1980.
    If the alarmists want us to go back and look long-term, then let’s at least go back to 1900. What follows is a chart depicting Arctic sea ice extent going back to 1900…ETC
    PLUS COMMENTS
    http://notrickszone.com/2018/08/24/arctic-summer-sea-ice-growth-trend-extends-another-year-greenland-summer-one-of-coldest-in-30-years/

    yesterday, Sky UK (via Foxtel) was replaying their 2017 documentary, “Arctic Peril”, featuring Lewis Pugh, who did an earlier swim:

    Wikipedia: Lewis Pugh
    In July 2007 Pugh undertook the first long-distance swim across the Geographic North Pole…
    The swim coincided with the lowest coverage of Arctic sea ice ever recorded…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Pugh

    the documentary reprised by Sky yesterday:

    13 Dec 2017: Sky News: Animals suffering as Arctic ice melts
    Increased human activity is disturbing whales and forcing animals like polar bears to come ashore to look for food.
    By Thomas Moore, Science Correspondent
    The Arctic is melting faster than at any time in at least the last 1,500 years, according to climate scientists.
    In their annual “report card” of the polar region, they warn that the average air temperature was 1.6 degrees above normal in 2017, the second highest on record after 2016.
    Parts of the Arctic Ocean were as much as 4 degrees warmer than normal…

    The bleak assessment comes from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, pulling together the work of 85 scientists in 12 nations…
    Sky Ocean Rescue has filmed in the Arctic this summer, following UN Patron of the Oceans Lewis Pugh in his most perilous swim to date – one kilometre along the edge of the ice pack.
    He did so to raise the alarm over the effects of global warming in the region…

    19 Dec 2017: Sky News: Arctic swimmer Lewis Pugh: ‘I’ve never come so close to the end’
    by Lewis Pugh
    The cold soon gripped me. First my hands froze, then my forearms. My arms became uncoordinated and my legs scissored all over the place. I just wasn’t in control.
    At 650m I stopped and said to Karl: “Let’s stop this thing.”…
    By the last 300m my tongue had frozen and I was struggling…
    My core body temperature was dropping all the time and they needed to get me into a hot shower fast…
    We met scientists who are predicting that there will be no sea ice in the Arctic in the summer months in just 12 years’ time…

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      yarpos

      Bit of cross between the Ship of Fools fiasco and the Darwin Awards that one. Stupid knows no bounds when trying to support the narrative. I am expecting at some stage we will have the Iraqi Information Minister moment , with some alarmist doing a rant about warming as the snowdrifts cover the lens.

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      What would they have done if Lewis Pugh had frozen to death.
      I mean, they’d have some problem maintaining the narrative then,
      maybe have to invent a new current, a globul warming current, that
      swept him out to sea.. ooh Louis Cinq! Lost at sea!

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  • #
    theRealUniverse

    Hmm they dont know what caused it? Liars. Looks like the part of the record between 1750 and 1890ish is similar to 1890 to 2000+….next…Models? Fake models based on fake CO2 warming that doesnt exist.

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    OriginalSteve

    I am of the opinion that CAGW adherents aren’t quite balanced.

    A story – one of the CAGW adherents in the office this morning fired up when, as bit of a gentle wind up, I offered to buy him an energy consuming device for his desk to keep him warm, as he was mouthing off…..well, he quickly ramped up to DEFCON1 ( which normal people just don’t do ) and I had to step away from the whole situation as it could have turned nasty…..and I don’t need that grief in the office.

    Anyone else had similar experiences?

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    Another Ian

    O/T but summers and climate in general

    “The Bloom is Off the Ruse: Angela Merkel Again Rejects Attempts to Enforce Paris Climate Treaty…
    Posted on August 26, 2018 by sundance

    In June, 2017, while trying to keep President Trump committed to the Paris Climate Treaty, Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron delivered a joint statement proclaiming: “the Paris Climate Treaty is irreversible and cannot be renegotiated.”

    U.S. President Trump knew the economic ramifications would handcuff the U.S. and that was the primary motive behind their demands. Rightly POTUS Trump brushed off the demands and withdrew the U.S. from the treaty, in July 2017:”

    More at

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/08/26/the-bloom-is-off-the-ruse-angela-merkel-again-rejects-attempts-to-enforce-paris-climate-treaty/

    If it is good enough for US and Germany and – - , why isn’t it good enough for Canberra?

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    Greg in NZ

    Och nooo, uts tha Hookey Schtuck what done it! (apologies for my brogue-ish Scottish type-accent).

    Winter arrives in Europe’s summer with snowfalls in Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Italy. Goldbergkees Glacier, long ago sentenced to death by Greenpoos, is still alive and well and frozen and covered in fresh snow –

    https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/goldbergkees/

    South African children build snowmen on the weekend because climate changes so much snow –

    http://snowreport.co.za/facebook/

    NZ’s Mt Ruapehu (9,000 ft volcano) now has a 3 metre snow base and due to a calm sunny break in the weather (ie. ongoing blizzards) the access road CLOSED at 9.20 am today as the car park was FULL… on a Monday morning! Gotta love that NZ work ethic… priorities after all.

    https://www.metservice.com/skifields/whakapapa

    University of Maine’s temp anomaly for the ‘World’ yesterday was 0.0˚C (1979-2000 base). This can be expressed as “Warming? What warming! There is no warming… it’s bang on zero.”

    https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

    As Rodriguez was wont to sing on his Cold Fact album: Crucify Your Mind.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emurplUGBIs&list=PLRQKT-Cu2_2Qy1pQxxQm8EZKLUHq0jkQg&index=3

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    King Geo

    Yes the Scottish temp data tells all – the numbers don’t lie. Likewise with today’s August Weatherbell Global Temp Anomaly reading of +0.182 degrees C. This is similar to the Global Temps recorded back in the early 1980′s. So much for Global Warming. US$trillions being squandered believing the IPCC’s totally incorrect “Theory of AGW”. GW is not the catastrophe – the real catastrophe is the IPCC’s GIGO computer modelling of future Global Temps.

    GIGO = garbage in garbage out.

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    pat

    3 Aug: news.com.au: Current drought the worst in centuries as cost of feed sends farmers broke
    RECORDS show the current crisis being faced by devastated farmers is unprecedented. This is why.
    by Stephanie Bedo
    (Twitter: Senior reporter @newscomauHQ. Previously Daily Mail AU, Gold Coast Bulletin and science communicating @griffith_uni)
    Scientific analysis of Australia’s drought extremes has shown the current crisis is likely to be the worst in 400 years.
    Researchers recently reconstructed 800 years of seasonal rainfall patterns across the Australian continent and while 99 per cent of NSW is currently drought-stricken, the study also found that at the other end of the extreme, parts of Northern Australia are wetter than ever before.

    The University of Melbourne team looked at historical records dating back to the 1700s but more detailed descriptions are provided in observational records when systematic recording of weather in Australia started in the late 19th century.
    The most well known of these are the Federation drought (1895-1903), the World War II drought (1939-45), and the recent Millennium drought (1997-2009), as reported in ***The Conversation…
    https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/cost-of-hay-to-feed-animals-sending-farmers-broke/news-story/013ef510afc617d4d329722fc2f3ad8a

    ***what has this May 2018 piece got to do with the article above? and why does The Conversation headline state droughts may be worst in 800 years, when the article says 400 years?
    also, if they are talking about droughts from 1790 to the present, that would be 228 years!

    2 May 2018: The Conversation: Recent Australian droughts may be the worst in ***800 years
    by Mandy Freund, PhD student, University of Melbourne,
    Ben Henley, Research Fellow in Climate and Water Resources, University of Melbourne,
    Kathryn Allen, Academic, Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne
    Patrick Baker, ARC Future Fellow and Professor of Silviculture and Forest Ecology, University of Melbourne

    Disclosures statements:
    Mandy Freund receives funding from the University of Melbourne and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.
    Ben Henley receives funding from an Australian Research Council Linkage Project.
    Kathryn Allen is supported by funding from the Australian Research Council.
    Patrick Baker receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Victoria’s Department of Environment, Land, Water, and Planning (DELWP), VicForests, and Hydro Tasmania.

    In a recent paper (LINK), we reconstructed 800 years of seasonal rainfall patterns across the Australian continent. Our new records show that parts of Northern Australia are wetter than ever before, and that major droughts of the late 20th and early 21st centuries in southern Australia are likely without precedent over the past ***400 years.
    Our reconstruction also shows that the most intense droughts described in the historical records – the Settlement Drought (***1790-93)…etc
    https://theconversation.com/recent-australian-droughts-may-be-the-worst-in-800-years-94292

    only one comment out of 50 wonders how the authors went back “800 years”.

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    Hey everyone here is the paper https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3478-8

    See Jo’s red arrows above. If you read the paper you will see them all discussed. In detail.

    Some are associated with major volcanic events and some required more analysis. See the paragraph that commences thus

    Ultimately, although major volcanic events are expressed in the NCAIRN record, there are clearly significant cold reconstructed summers which are not coincident with these externally forced volcanic perturbations of the atmosphere (Table 2). Some other factor must be influencing these reconstructed cold summers which we hypothesise must be related to internal dynamics of the climate system of the North Atlantic sector. To test this, we perform a spatial composite analysis for extreme (> ± 1 standard deviation away from a running 21-year local median high pass filter) warm and cold years against the 500 hPa geopotential height field using both observed (Compo et al. 2011) and reconstructed (Luterbacher et al. 2002) datasets. Clear consistent patterns emerge for both observed (Fig. 10a, 1851–1999; C20Cv2 (Compo et al. 2011), nwarm = 6, ncold = 11) and reconstructed (Fig. 10b, 1659–1999; Luterbacher et al. 2002, nwarm = 8, ncold = 21) extreme values, although the spatial expression of the height anomalies is larger using the reconstruction.

    this is their main speculation which requires more data gathering to investigate

    The frequency and distribution of warm and cold temperature extremes in the new Scottish reconstruction indicates that the negative phase of the SNAO dominated during the LIA, and that the high frequency of positive SNAO years during the twentieth century was anomalous, at least since the mid-seventeenth century, possibly related to a northward shift in the jet stream.

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    TdeF

    On Climate matters, Graham Lloyd’s writeup is very positive..

    “Mr Taylor wrote a report on reducing the cost of electricity that suggested the government immediately drop the RET and save up to $3.2 billion by 2020″

    That’s it. Except the saving is our money, not the government’s. And it is closer to $6Billion with AGL style markups. Plus the fact that we the public get nothing for this cash. It is so ‘investors’ can own windmills and solar farms and charge us for electricity at any price they choose as there is no competition from coal.

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    And of course there is the item number 1 in their summary

    Within the context of reconstruction uncertainty, recent summertime warming is not significantly more pronounced than past reconstructed warm periods (e.g. around 1300 and 1500).

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    pat

    on jo’s “Who will be our PM tomorrow?…” thread, I posted the following:

    22 Aug: CNN: Australia is devastated by drought, yet it won’t budge on climate change
    by Angela Dewan; CNN’s Ben Westcott contributed to this report
    Australia is suffering its worst drought in living memory, as dozens of bushfires are blazing out of control. It’s hard to believe that it’s winter “down under.” Summer is yet to come…

    the main CNN writer above – Angela Dewan – today:

    TWEET: A must read on #climatechange. Don’t be put off by the headline! There’s a lot of food for thought here.

    Angela links to:

    26 Aug: Guardian: Interview: ‘We’re doomed’: Mayer Hillman on the climate reality no one else will dare mention
    The 86-year-old social scientist says accepting the impending end of most life on Earth might be the very thing needed to help us prolong it
    by Patrick Barkham
    We’re doomed,” says Mayer Hillman with such a beaming smile that it takes a moment for the words to sink in. “The outcome is death, and it’s the end of most life on the planet because we’re so dependent on the burning of fossil fuels. There are no means of reversing the process which is melting the polar ice caps. And very few appear to be prepared to say so.”

    Hillman, an 86-year-old social scientist and senior fellow emeritus of the Policy Studies Institute, does say so. His bleak forecast of the consequence of runaway climate change, he says without fanfare, is his “last will and testament”. His last intervention in public life. “I’m not going to write anymore because there’s nothing more that can be said,” he says when I first hear him speak to a stunned audience at the University of East Anglia late last year…

    “With doom ahead, making a case for cycling as the primary mode of transport is almost irrelevant,” he says. “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”…
    Although Hillman has not flown for more than 20 years as part of a personal commitment to reducing carbon emissions, he is now scornful of individual action which he describes as “as good as futile”. ***By the same logic, says Hillman, national action is also irrelevant “because Britain’s contribution is minute. Even if the government were to go to zero carbon it would make almost no difference.”

    Instead, says Hillman, the world’s population must globally move to zero emissions across agriculture, air travel, shipping, heating homes – every aspect of our economy – and reduce our human population too. Can it be done without a collapse of civilisation? “I don’t think so,” says Hillman…
    “Standing in the way is capitalism. Can you imagine the global airline industry being dismantled when hundreds of new runways are being built right now all over the world? It’s almost as if we’re deliberately attempting to defy nature. We’re doing the reverse of what we should be doing, with everybody’s silent acquiescence, and nobody’s batting an eyelid.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/26/were-doomed-mayer-hillman-on-the-climate-reality-no-one-else-will-dare-mention?CMP=share_btn_tw

    ***good, we can save the $100 trillion plus prize the CAGW mob have their eyes on.

    no surprise the writer of the above, Patrick Barkham, and the subject, Mayer Hillman, have signed the following letter:

    27 Aug: Guardian Letters: Climate change is real. We must not offer credibility to those who deny it
    If ‘balance’ means giving voice to those who deny the reality of human-triggered climate change, we will not take part in the debate, say Jonathan Porritt, Caroline Lucas, Clive Lewis and 57 other writers, politicians and academics

    (LOL) In the interests of “balance”, the media often feels the need to include those who outright deny the reality of human-triggered climate change…
    Balance implies equal weight. But this then creates a false equivalence between an overwhelming scientific consensus and a lobby, heavily funded by vested interests, that exists simply to sow doubt to serve those interests. Yes, of course scientific consensus should be open to challenge – but with better science, not with spin and nonsense…

    Fringe voices will protest about “free speech”. No one should prevent them from expressing their views, whether held cynically or misguidedly. However, no one is obliged to provide them with a platform, much less to appear alongside them to give the misleading impression that there is something substantive to debate…
    Therefore we will no longer debate those who deny that human-caused climate change is real…
    We urge broadcasters to move on, as we are doing…
    (signatories include: Patrick Barkham, Mayer Hillman, Peter Tatchell, George Monbiot, Jeremy Leggett, Bea Campbell, Mark Lynas, Oliver Tickell, etc)

    Join the debate – email guardian.letters@theguardian.com
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/26/climate-change-is-real-we-must-not-offer-credibility-to-those-who-deny-it

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    pat

    18 Aug: Paul Homewood: Telegraph’s “Worst Australian Drought In Decades” Fake Claim
    from comments: Homewood responds to a reader who wrote: “The graphs showing anamolies are very difficult to understand. Can we not get rainfall actuals?”:

    Yes, actuals are also available, for instance:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Drain%26area%3Dseaus%26season%3D0305%26ave_yr%3D0

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/08/18/telegraphs-worst-australian-drought-in-decades-fake-claim/

    19 Aug: Paul Homewood: NSW Drought In Perspective
    I have worked out the YTD rainfall in NSW, although this is a pretty artificial measure. This year is the fourth lowest on record, behind 1902, 1965 and 1940 (in that order). (LINK BOM)

    If we look at the 12 month figures, this year ranks as 8th driest, behind 1901, 1902, 1919, 1927, 1929, 1940 and 1965. (LINK BOM)

    It is easy to see why how farmers say this is the worst drought in memory, because it is exactly that. Whereas these sort of severe droughts used to come along every decade on average, there has been nothing like it since 1965.
    This year the drought has been largely confined to parts of NSW and South Australia…
    This certainly was not the case in some of those earlier droughts, which were far more extensive…
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/08/19/nsw-drought-in-perspective/

    BoM has been relatively quiet:

    2 Aug: Bureau of Meteorology:
    Drought
    Rainfall deficiencies
    Rainfall deficiencies continue and increase in severity for the east
    Nationally, it was the driest July since 2002 and below average for most of southern Australia…

    4 Jul:
    Drought
    June rainfall was below average for most of Australia, and very much below average for parts of the east coast
    The start of the southern wet season has been drier than average…
    Rainfall deficiencies
    A dry start to the southern wet season

    The start of the southern wet season has been drier than average. The southern wet season spans April to November, and corresponds to the southern agricultural cropping season. The start to the wet season has been particularly dry for the south of Western Australia, with some areas along Western Australia’s southern coast receiving record-low rainfall for April to June. Decile 1 rainfall for the period was observed across large areas of southern Western Australia, New South Wales and southern Queensland, and Central Australia. For Australia as a whole, April to June 2018 has been the fourth-driest such period since comparable records commence in 1900…
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/

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      pat

      in the CNN piece I posted earlier, Dewan writes:

      “Australia is suffering its worst drought in living memory”

      ABC seems to be responsible for starting the meme based on the following:

      29 Jul: ABC Rural: The big dry: ‘See us, hear us, help us’
      Farmers across New South Wales and Queensland are calling it the ***worst drought in living memory.
      In the neighbouring New England region, farmers say the dry conditions are the worst they can remember.
      “It’s certainly the worst drought I’ve ever seen,” says cattle farmer John Sylvester…
      In the Central West, Western Plains and North West Slopes regions, farmers say it is the worst drought in a century…
      In Western Queensland, farmers are comparing this big dry to the famously severe drought of the 1880s…
      http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2018-07-29/the-big-dry-see-us-hear-us-help-us/10030010

      no-one says it except ABC in these two, plus they both link to The Conversation worst drought in 400 years piece:

      1 Aug: ABC: What you need to know about droughts: Why they happen and how they are defined
      ABC Weather By Kate Doyle
      Nationwide, 2018 has been the fourth-driest April to June since the Bureau of Meteorology started taking records back in 1900.
      (LINKS TO THE CONVERSATION’S “400 YEAR” RUBBISH)

      1 Aug: ABC: Dresses for the drought: Sisters start movement to donate formal dresses to affected teenagers
      ABC Tropical North By Sophie Meixner and Tegan Philpott
      Anita Guyett and Tashoni Hardy grew up on a cattle station outside Mackay and have been “heartbroken” to see friends in the farming community living through the “worst drought in living memory” (***LINK THE CONVERSATION)…

      on almost all pages relating to the drought, theirABC has a releated link to their Drought page which begins with:

      ABC: Full coverage: Australia’s drought crisis
      Farmers are facing ruin across New South Wales and Queensland in what some are calling the worst drought in living memory…

      only ABC making the claim in this one:

      10 Aug: ABC: ‘It’s scary’: experiencing the drought crisis from boarding school
      ABC Radio Sydney By Harriet Tatham
      While farmers face what some are calling the worst drought in living memory…

      2 Aug: BBC: In pictures: Australia’s drought seen from the air
      Parts of eastern Australia are suffering their worst drought in living memory as a lack of rainfall in winter hits farms badly…

      4 Aug: Guardian: Australia’s drought crisis and farmers’ stories of anxiety, fear and resilience
      by Michael McGowan
      South-east Australia is in the grip of a drought worse than many can remember…
      Lindy Piper, sheep farmer from Coolah, NSW
      “I have lived here since 1982 and there have been some very tough times and droughts, but this is by far the worst I have ever seen our farm.”…

      6 Aug: Reuters: Farming impact of Australia’s worst drought in living memory
      Content by Simon Scarr, Jin Wu, Weiyi Cai and Chris Inton of REUTERS GRAPHICS; Additional content by David Gray, Michael Perry, Richard Pullin, Colin Packham and Gerry Doyle; Compiled by Neil Fullick and Gavin Maguire.

      FakeNewsMSM.

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    observa

    Well I think the graph looks a lot like the Scottish Highlands so there!

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    pat

    24 Aug Bluenotes ANZ: Tougher times: how the drought is impacting GDP
    by Felicity Emmett, Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
    Australia is currently in the grip of the most serious drought since 2003…
    In New South Wales, 84 per cent of the state has experienced rainfall deficiencies in the bottom 10 per cent this year, the highest since 1965…
    The 2002 drought was drier, but not as hot as 2018…
    BOM Maps

    Concerning outlook
    The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is forecasting warm and dry conditions are likely to continue over the next three months. Signs that an El Niño may develop are also evident, which would bring further warmer- and drier-than-average conditions to eastern Australia…
    After a very strong few years, cattle prices are now falling sharply as slaughter rates increase, while wheat prices are sharply higher than historical averages and still climbing.

    Western Australia, the largest exporter of wheat, has experienced more normal weather conditions and, as such, will benefit from higher prices and cushion the overall negative impact of drought on the national economy.
    Already the impact of the drought is evident in the economic data.
    Rural export volumes are down 14 per cent over the past two quarters, and farm gross domestic product is also down 15 per cent over the past year, taking just under 0.4ppts off growth. There is likely to be further subtractions from growth over the rest of the year…

    The full extent of the impact of the drought on the economy will depend on when rainfall returns to normal and the drought ends.
    With the BOM forecasting ongoing warm and dry conditions, this suggests that farm GDP is likely to continue to subtract from growth through the rest of 2018 and potentially into next year…

    In each of the five major droughts of the past 30 years, reduced farm output took 0.7–1.1ppt off growth. The impact of this drought is likely to be similar in ANZ Research’s view, although good conditions in Western Australia will take the edge off the national impact…

    Between June 2016 and June 2017, the sharp rise in agricultural income (up 70 per cent) enabled farmers to increase their deposits in the Farm Management Deposit scheme (FMD).
    The scheme allows farmers to make deposits of pre-tax income in years when income is high, which they can withdraw when earnings are low. The FMD has seen strong growth in deposits over the past few years, in line with the rise in agricultural incomes, which in turn reflects high commodity prices.
    Some farmers are also able to access federal and state government relief payments and/or privately donated contributions…

    While the RBA has mentioned the drought in its recent publications, its last Statement on Monetary Policy focused more on downside risks to the outlook.
    The Bank noted that “rural exports are expected to be a little weaker than anticipated in the May Statement because of drought conditions in parts of the country. If these conditions were to persist or become more widespread, then the impact on rural exports, and the farm sector more generally, would be larger.”

    It also referred to the drought at its August meeting, with the minutes noting that “the probability of an El Niño event, which would typically be associated with low rainfall in eastern Australia, had increased over 2018, implying downside risks to the forecasts for farm output and exports.”…
    While there are clearly deeply felt impacts on the affected regional communities, the drought is unlikely to have much impact on the overall trajectory of the national unemployment rate and underlying inflation…
    https://bluenotes.anz.com/posts/2018/08/tougher-times–how-the-drought-is-impacting-gdp

    6 Aug: CNBC: Australia announces extra aid for farmers as PM admits, ‘We are the land of droughts’
    •The eastern part of Australia is said to be suffering its worst drought since 1965.
    by David Reid
    Turnbull told a local radio station Monday that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was calling the dry weather “the worst drought in eastern Australia since 1965.”…
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/06/extra-aid-for-australian-farmers-as-turnbull-admits-we-are-land-of-dro.html

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      pat

      seems this might have been Turnbull’s source for BoM mentioning 1965:

      30 Jul: SMH Extreme Weather: Peter Hannam: ‘Gutted’: Farmers welcome aid as cash flow dries up with the rain
      NSW received just half its typical rain in the first half of 2018, making it the driest start to any year since 1986…

      As of the end of July, about 84 per cent of NSW was in the midst of the lowest 10 per cent of rainfall for the period. Only the Federation Drought of 1902, with 97 per cent, ***and 1965 with 88 per cent, had larger areas with such rainfall deficiencies, Dr. Braganza (head of the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate monitoring Karl Braganza) said…

      Research published on Monday in the Medical Journal of Australia found younger farmers, particularly under 35, were more likely to struggle with personal drought-related stress.
      “The incidence of psychological distress was also significantly lower for participants aged 55 or more. The incidence of [stress] was lower among retired than employed participants, and both PDS and psychological distress were lower among ‘prosperous’ or ‘very comfortable’ than for less financially secure respondents,” lead author Emma Austin, from the Centre for Water, Climate and Land at the University of Newcastle, and the researchers wrote…
      https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/gutted-farmers-welcome-aid-as-cashflow-dries-up-along-with-the-rain-20180730-p4zuff.html

      30 Jul: Medical Journal of Australia: Drought-related stress among farmers: findings from the Australian Rural Mental Health Study
      Emma K Austin, Tonelle Handley, Anthony S Kiem, Jane L Rich, Terry J Lewin, Hedda H Askland, Sara S Askarimarnani, David A Perkins and Brian J Kelly
      Acknowledgements:
      We are grateful to the ARMHS participants for contributing their time to the study. The ARMHS was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council (401241, 631061), and was also supported by the Australian Rural Health Research Collaboration. Emma Austin was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship. We thank Olivier Rey-Lescure (University of Newcastle) for technical assistance with mapping.
      https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2018/209/4/drought-related-stress-among-farmers-findings-australian-rural-mental-health

      more 1965 references:

      19 Aug: news.com.au: Daily Telegraph: The human faces of the worst drought on record
      by JACK MORPHET and SAM RUTTYN
      Tamworth, on the typically plentiful Liverpool Plains, is officially gripped in intense drought and not a single farmer will harvest a winter crop, which hasn’t happened since 1965…
      For the first time since he was a toddler, the 55-year-old won’t see a winter crop this year…
      “This is the worst drought I’ve seen, which I can say categorically because it’s the first time since 1965 we haven’t had a winter crop,” Mr Walters said…
      https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/the-human-faces-of-the-worst-drought-on-record/news-story/2826d4e17b9b0bd8532eb36e48bca422

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    Latus Dextro

    FFS, who needs proxies, models, Ministers of Climate or Green policies?
    The Romans failed to grow wine in Scotland and this misguided, deluded trier who ‘believed’ in the globull warming experienced the same distressing result.

    Scotland’s only vineyard could be all washed up after its owner announced that the business was in crisis as the area is too rainy.

    The vineyard, in Upper Largo, near Fife, did not make a single bottle of wine last year, having made only 10 the year before, only for critics to brand it undrinkable.

    Owner Christopher Trotter, from Aberdeen, planted vines in 2011 and opened the vineyard three years later in the hope that global warming would make wine-harvesting viable in Scotland.

    +The vineyard, in Upper Largo, near Fife, is in crisis due to the rainy weather
    +Did not make any wine in 2015, compared to just 10 bottles the year before
    +The only batch produced by the vines was branded undrinkable by critics
    +Owner Christopher Trotter, from Aberdeen, has plead for professional help

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      observa

      The vineyard, in Upper Largo, near Fife, did not make a single bottle of wine last year, having made only 10 the year before, only for critics to brand it undrinkable.

      Did they try it with renewable Scotch?

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    TdeF

    National Geographic. I have loved this magazine since I was little but for the last decade it has been madness as every event is Climate Change. These are people who are misled as their passion is incredible, but they are not scientists generally in terms of the hard science needed for the alleged CO2 driven global warming.

    However there is finally a hint of change, accompanying a picture of a starving polar bear and they have changed their video.

    “August 2018 Editor’s Note: National Geographic went too far in drawing a definitive connection between climate change and a particular starving polar bear in the opening caption of our video about the animal. We said “This is what climate change looks like”. While science has established that there is a strong connection between melting sea ice and polar bears dying off, there is no way to know for certain why this bear was on the verge of death.”

    It’s a start.

    The other connection is melting ice and CO2. The average temperature at the North Pole in summer is 0C, so the slightest change in summer has a great effect on sea ice coverage, but after thirty years of measurement the connection with CO2 levels and warming is not there.

    In summer the polar bears have always starved, sitting on the brown dirt and visible to their aquatic prey. They bulk up in winter and starve in summer. That’s absolutely normal, not anyone’s fault. This bear may have been sick, injured or a bad hunter.

    Their first cousins, the Brown bears do the reverse and hibernate in winter and stock up in summer. It’s a life.

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    pat

    who would read this headline and imagine the “hundreds” referred to sheep?

    31 Jul: news.com.au: Hundreds dead: Worst drought in 18 years
    by Lisa Mayoh
    ANDREW Curro is a Mudgee local who every year for the past 18 years has been visiting his farmer mates, giving them a hand when he can.
    But last week was different.
    He spent four days helping a mate fish hundreds of dead sheep and kangaroos out of drying dams…
    “It’s the worst I’ve seen it in 18 years of going out there”…
    https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/hundreds-dead-worst-drought-in-18-years/news-story/3f22cc24437fa949256bd74391477356

    27 Aug: ABC: Snowfalls around Tasmania bring late winter wonderland to life
    By Cate Grant and Damian McIntyre
    Many Tasmanians have woken to a white blanket outside, with snow falling to its lowest levels this winter.
    Snow fell to 300 metres in areas including the Huon Valley and parts of Hobart.
    Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Lizzie Donovan said there were some low overnight temperatures.

    “We had a fairly vigorous cold front come through last night and that brought a dumping of really cold air up from the south, and that in combination with the precipitation that it brought resulted in some decent snow fall,” she said.
    “So we have seen some snowfall everywhere that received precipitation that is also above 300 metres.
    “So places like the Huon Valley and Neika, around Hobart, we’ve had some unconfirmed reports that snow has fallen as low as 200 to 250 metres.
    “This season this is certainly the lowest snowfall that we’ve seen…

    Overnight Mt Wellington and Liawenee dropped to -5 degrees Celsius, while it was -4C at Mount Read on the west coast…
    The snow is set to stick around…
    Felicity Foot from Ben Lomond Snow Sports said it would ensure the season continued a while longer.
    “It snowed lightly last night and the snow cover at the moment I’d describe as being very good, and so many people over the weekend came up and had a ball, so we’re thrilled,” she said…
    The summit road of kunyani/Mt Wellington was closed this morning due to snow
    The Hobart City Council closed the road from Bracken Lane…
    Tasmania Police have a list of road closures around the state.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-27/snow-falls-to-200m-in-tasmania/10167904

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    el gordo

    Coral bleaching is nothing new.

    ‘Here, we use linear extensions from 44 overlapping GBR coral cores to extend the observational bleaching record by reconstructing temperature-induced bleaching patterns over 381 years spanning 1620–2001.

    ‘Porites spp. corals exhibited variable bleaching patterns with bleaching frequency (number of bleaching years per decade) increasing (1620–1753), decreasing (1754–1820), and increasing (1821–2001) again.

    ‘Bleaching prevalence (the proportion of cores exhibiting bleaching) fell (1670–1774) before increasing by 10% since the late 1790s concurrent with positive temperature anomalies, placing recently observed increases in GBR coral bleaching into a wider context.’

    Kamenos and Hennige 2018

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      it is new to scotland though

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        el gordo

        No.

        If you look at the graph in Jo’s post you see that jump around 1280 AD, then it dips with the well known 1300 AD Event, but quickly bounces back again.

        My quest is to find the real start of the LIA and Scotland appears to be an anomaly.

        So my question is what caused the AD 1300 Event?

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        el gordo

        From that link …..

        ‘A period of sharply lower sunspot activity known as the Wolf Minimum began in 1280 and persisted for 70 years until 1350.’

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        el gordo

        Then there is the volcanism theory.

        “The second half of the 13th century had the most volcanism of any period of the past 1,500 years,” says Alan Robock, an atmospheric scientist at Rutgers University.

        ‘Polar ice samples have revealed a series of eruptions: an especially big explosion somewhere in the world in 1258, and three smaller ones in 1268, 1275 and 1284′

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        el gordo

        Lombok features strongly as the start of the LIA.

        ‘The 1257 Samalas eruption was a major eruption of the Samalas volcano, next to Mount Rinjani on Lombok Island in Indonesia. The eruption left behind a large caldera next to Rinjani, with Lake Segara Anak inside it. This eruption probably had a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 7, making it one of the largest eruptions of the current Holocene epoch.

        ‘An examination of ice cores showed a large spike in sulfate deposition around 1257. This was strong evidence of a large eruption having occurred somewhere in the world. In 2013, scientists proved that the eruption occurred at Mount Samalas.’ wiki

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        not sure what you are on about. I was making a joke about coral bleaching.

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