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Global warming means a global fall in wildfires

Strangely, despite NASA Giss “discovering” that the world has heated a lot since 1998, fires have declined.

Apparently increasing our CO2 emissions means less fires. Tell the world.

Incidence and Area of fires burned globally, annually, graph. 2018.

Figure 2. Wildfire occurrence (a) and corresponding area burnt (b) in the European Mediterranean region for the period 1980 – 2010. Source: San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. [37].

This new paper points out that the perception is that fires are worse than they have ever been, but that this is simply not true, not in the last thirty years, and not in the last few hundred either. It also documents how much money and effort we put into suppressing almost all fires and that this is in contrast to tens of thousands of years where humans used fire as a tool. Suppressing fires is getting increasingly expensive and sometimes costs lives as well.

Putting things in perspective. We spend a lot of money to avoid death and damage by fire, yet earthquakes kill 700 times as many people and floods kill 1,800 times as many people. There is something primal about fire that we feel driven to stop.

Table, Fires, Floods, Earthquake, damage, death. 2018

Table 1. Global comparison of human and economic losses derived from wildfire, earthquakes and flood disasters from 1901 to 2014. (Source: EMDAT 2015 [83].)

 

Perhaps we have a politico-social problem with fire, rather than a real one

Perhaps rather than a ‘wildfire problem’ that has worsened globally in recent decades, the negative, and sometimes tragic, consequences of fire themselves may be gaining wider public attention and, therefore, recognition. The fact that nowadays the latest news reports about disasters from around the world are readily available to large parts of the population may be a contributing factor. What is not spreading equally well is the recognition that fire is a fundamental natural ecological agent in many of our ecosystems and only a ‘problem’ where we choose to inhabit these fireprone regions or we humans introduce it to non-fire-adapted ecosystems [3]. The ‘wildfire problem’ is essentially more a social than a natural one.

The media are dominated by reports from fires where lives are lost or at risk, and these are typically from fire-prone regions exhibiting high population densities (figure 4)…. there is likely to be a bias in reporting of losses for Western countries given that the largest number of people affected by fire and losses of life appears to be elsewhere (i.e Asia…)

We thus need to move towards a more sustainable coexistence with fire. This requires a balanced and informed understanding of the realities of wildfire occurrence and its effects.

Fires, continents, death, damage, table, 2018.

Table 2. Human and economic losses from wildfire ‘disasters’ by global region from 1984 to 2013. Costs are based on the actual value of US$ in a given reporting year. (Source: EM-DAT 2013 [83].)  |   Click to enlarge.

I want to know how Africa with so many people has so few affected by wildfire. Is that just a reporting artefact, or is there something real going on? The paper does not say.

h/t GWPF

 

In the last 200 years fires don’t seem to have increased either

 2. Has fire increased in many regions around the globe? Analysis of charcoal records in sediments [31] and isotoperatio records in ice cores [32] suggest that global biomass burning during the past century has been lower than at any  time in the past 2000 years. Although the magnitude of the actual differences between pre-industrial and current biomass burning rates may not be as pronounced as suggested by those studies [33], modelling approaches agree with a general decrease of global fire activity at least in past centuries [34]. In spite of this, fire is often quoted as an increasing issue around the globe [11,26 –29].

In California, before Europeans arrived the area burned was 6 times higher

This suggests a general trend of fewer, but larger wildfires, which is also highlighted for forests in the western USA by Westerling for the period 1983–2012 [46]. However, caution is advised when considering the relative rates of change for area burned. The comparatively brief periods of observation discussed here are strongly influenced by regional interannual variability and are too short to be indicative of longer-term trends. For example, if only the past 16 full reporting years for the USA are considered (2000 –2015), where annual area burned ranged between 14 284 (2001) and 40 975 km2 (2015), the overall annual increase has been less than 1% [48]. Longer-term records can indeed reveal rather different perspectives. For example, for the Californian Cascades and Sierra Nevada, Mallek et al. [49] suggest that ‘modern’ (1984–2009) annual area burned was only 14% of that burned annually prior to European settlement (approx. 1500–1850). In addition to climate, changes in vegetation patterns and fire regimes also play an important role here and are discussed in the context of fire severity in §3a.

REFERENCE:

Doerr et al (2016) Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. Jun 5;371(1696). pii: 20150345. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0345.

see also:  NASA Detects Drop in Global Fires (GWPF)

Scientists find a surprising result on global wildfires: They’re actually burning less land (GWPF)

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Rating: 9.2/10 (52 votes cast)
Global warming means a global fall in wildfires, 9.2 out of 10 based on 52 ratings

89 comments to Global warming means a global fall in wildfires

  • #
    Mal

    For commercial newsrepoting, sensationalism sells. Good news doesn’t.
    For the ABC, they only support their anti co2 political agenda.
    All ignore facts including building in forested areas, no Hazard reduction and buildings that aren’t suitable in fire risk areas.
    As the old saying goes, why let facts get in the way of a good story.

    261

  • #
    Another Ian

    Jo! But! But! But!

    CO2 is a known extinguisher of fires!

    170

    • #
    • #
      Geoff

      Obviously really BIG fires increase the atmosphere’s CO2 content. This is followed by rain and a rapid greening of arable land and results in even BIGGER fires etc etc

      Eventually there is so much growth that even the fires cannot produce enough CO2 to feed the plants and there is a extinction event. Anything tall dies. Things in CO2 collecting lowlands live.

      Along comes man. The first thing we learn about agriculture is that it needs regular burning. The plants need it, so do the animals. They require CO2 to not go extinct. Without it we are doomed.

      81

  • #
    Bobl

    Two comments firstly if burnt area is only 14% of before then that’s a big CO2 saving not being counted opening the question as to whether man has increased or in fact DECREASED CO2 emission since preindustrial times. Secondly the problem with wildfires only exists because certain people don’t want to do hazard reduction burns or create
    meaningful fire breaks. The result is dead people and more dead animals compared with fires in a fuel reduced environment.

    211

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    Preventative maintenance of bushlands is a costly business for state and local governments but they do have something in common.

    Although maintenance of State controlled bush and National Parks was being wound down forty years ago a new impetus has arrived in the form of global warming which allows maintenance to be cut even further.

    Any fires now are simply blamed on CAGW and the money saved is put aside for more important things like the reelection fund or hidden retirement allocation.

    While bushfires may not be preventable, there are important benefits of regular maintenance:

    1. Fire intensity, when it occurs is lower.
    2. The spread of fires is reduced.
    3. The death toll of humans and animals is reduced.
    4. Firefighting is easier and not as dangerous.

    Eighty dead in Greece last week and now 12 missing with 5 confirmed dead in California, what a surprise.

    People rely on governments to protect them and are being badly let down.

    KK

    191

    • #
      beowulf

      The trouble is there is another factor at work too KK: the rise of the media star fire commissioners and the centralisation of power over the volunteer bush fire brigades by the RFS bureaucracy.

      Before the massive bushfires of January 1994 no one had ever heard of Director-General of the New South Wales Bush Fire Service and later Rural Fire Service Commissioner, Phil Koperberg. That was the year Elvis (the helicopter that is) first appeared on the scene. Suddenly Koperberg was an instant media star and went on to use his fame to run for parliament, becoming NSW Minister for Climate Change, Environment and Water.

      That RFS bureaucracy is dependent for its existence upon bigger and better fires — or at least bigger and better headlines; and governments do love to be seen to be slaying dragons for the good of the people too. The RFS has 855 paid, full-time employees at head office (as of 2 years ago). They must be run off their feet shuffling paper for 6 to 8 months of most years. I’m not even sure what 855 staff would do in the middle of a bad fire outbreak — it’s not like they fight any fires. There are only a certain number of aerial resources to deploy; topo maps and weather reports to examine; phones to man; white boards to scribble on. Once a fire occurs, the bulk of operational decisions are made by people on the ground at a local level, people who know their district.

      Star headlines; bigger helicopters; shinier trucks and more central control of local volunteer brigades via turning the money tap on or off — that’s what it’s all about for the powers at the top. Decent gear, aerial backup and more operational independence are what the fighters on the ground want, not the rest of the BS. The RFS is also currently building itself a new Taj Mahal headquarters at Sydney Olympic Park.

      The central control also includes multiple government departments devoted to global warming fanaticism who must rubber stamp every major fire permit, sometimes a year in advance. Where once a local captain could authorise a burn on a day when the weather was favourable, the brigades must now apply for permission from head office to do controlled burns. Therefore many burns that should be done don’t get done these days. If some lackey in head office notes that a Red Bellied Drop Bear was recorded in the proposed hazard reduction burn area in 1936, the prescribed burn gets the axe. Thus the Greens have their talons into the prescribed burn process. Local volunteers become disillusioned, with good reason, then you get the Victorian situation where Desperado Dan wants to force the volunteers under the control of the fire union.

      Meanwhile the nation burns.

      251

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        Thanks for that.

        The name, Koperberg, is certainly familiar, but that head office thing is new info.

        Just at a rough estimate you would think that one tenth of that workforce of 855 would be enough for the job.

        What keeps the other 770 occupied?
        That may be a payroll “fudge” of seventy seven million dollars a year. On a population basis that’s a ripoff of near enough to ten dollars per person in NSW annually.
        I can see now why having bigger fires might be useful for Head Office.

        Sometimes things tend to make you want to puke.

        KK

        152

      • #
        Another Ian

        Head office reaction “A fire! Put it out before it burns something”

        Bush reaction “A fire. We want to burn something before we put it out”

        60

    • #
      Forest Stylist

      Indeed. If fine fuel is is reduced 50% (easily done in a fuel reduction burn) then rate of spread drops 50% and fire intensity and area burnt drops 75%.
      30 years ago, a one pager signed by the local district forester was all we needed to do a burn, now I believe it is 250 pages signed by the minister.

      170

      • #
        Kinky Keith

        Hi Forest,

        I’ve written on here before about what happened to one of Newcastles best spots.
        A couple of years ago all of the neglect finally paid off and the Northern edge of Glenrock Lagoon went off like a bomb.

        An environmental tragedy caused by?

        Head Office.

        KK

        161

  • #
    Mark M

    Arrhenius never thought of CO2 as a planet burning gas:

    “It will “allow our descendants, “he said, “even if they only be those of a distant future, to live under a warmer sky and in a less harsh environment than we were granted”(l1).

    Such a view is consonant with the ideology of “optimistic evolutionism “embraced by Arrhenius and many of his contemporaries.

    … his motives for undertaking the work, which were an interest in finding the causes of the Ice Ages and not concern with the effect of the industrial revolution.

    It is thus that interest in Arrhenius’s model, which had been minimal duringthe first 50 years of the 20th century,was re- suscitatedin the 1970s as a result of the model being placed in the new context of global warming.

    As often happens, the recontextualization of a work has led to its reinterpretation”

    page 11: https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Courses/EPS281r/Sources/Greenhouse-effect/Arrhenius/3-optional-Crawford-1997.pdf

    81

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Interesting but too small to read on the phone so will print off a copy when I get back home in a weeks time.

      11

  • #
    Jeff

    “Global warming means a global fall in wildfires”

    Or reduced forest cover causes decreased wildfires and increases global warming ?

    37

  • #
    ROM

    .
    Jo says—
    .
    Global warming means a global fall in wildfires

    Until the Renewable industry finds itself on the ropes economically and begins to set up wind turbines to burn so as to claim the insurance;

    Or wild fires that just happen to sweep right through major solar panel farm installations on hot strong wind, low humidity days.

    And then we will really see some very destructive fires out in the rural areas.

    After all, to take the full cynical route, the owners / operators of those renewable instalations who never live in close proximity to their scenery blighting monstrosities so it will only be the volunteers from the “deplorable” rural folk who will have to fight those turbine and solar farm fires as they sweep through their farms and businesses.
    .

    And when, not” if” the subsidy system for Renewables collapses due to either realistic politics and energy policies finally coming to the fore or more likely a forced elimination of subsidies to the renewable industry due to governments running out of OPM and /or a major financial disruption occurs globally leaving governments and politicians holding a economic and financial hand grenade and not knowing what to do with it except to try and defuse it by cutting , cutting, cutting any and all except absolutely essential expenditure.

    Sometimes called a “Depression” by those who have been through one. .

    And don’t laugh at this either’
    In my younger days there was a long standing saying regarding the garments industry that members of a certain ethnic / racial group weren’t really successful business people until they had had at least two major fires in their businesses .

    History in this case will likely repeat itself all over again but with a 2000′s technological twist included.

    90

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Like the old, old joke.

      2 businessmen meet in a luxury hotel.
      First: I can only afford to stay here because of the $50,000 insurance from the fire at my business.
      Second: Me too, only because of the $100,000 insurance from the flood at my business.
      First: Tell me, how do you start a flood?

      20

  • #
    yarpos

    Media reporting and hyping up climate connections creates the appearance of events being far bigger than they are. In California you have the “intersection” of a big media presence and a liberal/greenie culture. In Australia, notice the hype and coverage of any bushfire in or around Sydney vs coverage of anything else.

    120

  • #
    Ruairi

    Many fires are arson attacks,
    And some by pyromaniacs,
    With their furious pyres,
    Blamed as natural fires,
    In wanton destructive acts.

    130

  • #
    ROM

    It is 167 years since white man has seen a fire on the scale of the 1851 Black Thursday bush fire in Victoria ;

    The largest Australian bushfire in European-recorded history that burnt an area of approximately 5 million ha. which covered a quarter of Victoria.

    &

    THE WEATHER. ( from the Melbourne “Argus” Newspaper Feb. 8.1851 )
    ” Thursday was one of the most oppressive hot-days we have experienced for some years.
    In the early morning the atmosphere was perfectly scorching, and at eleven o’clock the thermometer stood as high as 117 degrees ( 47.2 Celsius ) in the shade; at one o’clock it had fallen to 109 degrees and at four in the afternoon was up to 113 degrees.( 45 Celsius )

    And with that quote from the now long gone “Argus” newspaper of my youth goes all the alarmist claims about how much hotter it now is and how all the record breaking hot temperatures are from the ever vaporous, unseen, unmeasured, unproven climate change of today.

    Ref; Bushfires in Victoria 1851 Black Thursday

    142

    • #
      Mark M

      Here is another piece of history back when carbon (sic) was at ‘safe’ levels:

      The Heroes of Gundagai

      One such story is that of Yarri (Coonong Denamundinna), Jacky Jacky and other Wiradjuri men that rescued an estimated 69 people during the great flood of 1852, at Gundagai.

      The 1852 flood caused the most recorded Australian deaths by drowning in written history, with an estimated 89 settler-colonisers perishing.

      https://indigenousx.com.au/the-heroes-of-gundagai/#.WzDDkS1L2hd

      30

  • #
    pat

    note the wording: “We see five times more LARGE fires today than we did in the 1970s”; “the number of REALLY BIG rainstorms has increased by as much as 70 percent”:

    29 Jul: NPR: When The Weather Is Extreme, Is Climate Change To Blame?
    by Laurel Wamsley, Weekend Edition Sunday
    There were wildfires in Greece, Scandinavia, and the Western U.S. Flooding followed record rainfalls in the Northeast. And dangerous heat waves settled over the Southwest, Japan, and the U.K.
    If it continues like this, 2018 could end up being one of the hottest years on record (***LINK).

    When the news is full of stories on extreme weather, it’s hard not to wonder: Is this what climate change looks like?
    Climate scientists say yes — though it’s complicated.
    Take wildfires, for example.
    “We see five times more large fires today than we did in the 1970s,” says Jennifer Balch, professor in geography and director of Earth Lab at the University of Colorado Boulder…
    “Fire season is about three months longer than it was just a few decades ago,” she says. “We’ve seen a 2-degree Fahrenheit increase across the Western U.S. Snowpack is melting earlier, and what that’s doing is essentially opening up the window for fires to happen over a much longer period of time.”

    Last year was the costliest fire season ever, with damages exceeding $18 billion dollars.
    Overall, weather and climate disasters in the U.S. caused more than $300 billion in damages in 2017, shattering previous records. Though that’s not all climate — those increased costs are partly the result of development and sprawl…

    Over the last 50 years, the number of really big rainstorms has increased by as much as 70 percent…
    To a certain degree, that we’ve had so much extreme weather this past week is a coincidence: fires, heat waves, and rainstorms happen every summer.
    But climate change makes this kind of extreme weather more common, researchers say – and it’s a trend that’s expected to continue as the planet keeps getting warmer.
    https://www.npr.org/2018/07/29/633203732/when-the-weather-is-extreme-is-climate-change-to-blame

    ***26 Jul: World Meteorological Org: July sees extreme weather with high impacts
    Extreme weather, including record temperatures and heatwaves, drought and disastrous precipitation, has marked the first half of summer in the northern hemisphere. This has had widespread impacts on human health, agriculture, ecosystems and infrastructure and led to devastating wildfires…
    “2018 is shaping up to be one of the hottest years on record, with new temperature records in many countries. This is no surprise. The heatwaves and extreme heat we are experiencing are consistent with what we expect as a result of climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. This is not a future scenario. It is happening now,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Elena Manaenkova…

    ***Conversely, southern parts of Europe including parts of Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey, have been witnessing below average temperatures and above average precipitation for the early part of summer…

    In Canada, a heatwave combined with high humidity in the province of Quebec contributed to dozens of deaths, especially among the vulnerable and elderly.

    ***At the same time, parts of Eastern Canada saw a brief return of wintery weather, with snow in parts of Newfoundland and Cape Breton (Nova Scotia), and temperatures of -1C, in St John’s and Halifax. Winter weather this late in the year is rare, this being the first since 1996.”…

    Episodes of extreme heat and precipitation are increasing as a result of climate change. Although it is not possible to attribute the individual extreme events of June and July to climate change, they are compatible with the general long-term trend due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases…
    https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/july-sees-extreme-weather-high-impacts

    27 Jul: World Meteorological Org: Drought and heat exacerbate wildfires
    California, the total number of fires is trending downward, but the size of fires is going up.
    Climate change is not just increasing the likelihood of wildfires in some areas of the country; it’s also erasing decades of air pollution gains in those same regions, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. (LINK)…
    https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/drought-and-heat-exacerbate-wildfires

    40

  • #
    pat

    cannot find this on a regular DN page:

    28 Jul: Daily Mail: Heatwave? Just blame climate change, say experts as they rush out new study
    by Victoria Allen
    ACADEMICS have rushed out a study claiming climate change made the current heatwave more than twice as likely.
    Researchers from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) Network say the logic is now ‘inescapable’ that climate change makes heatwaves more common.
    The analysis, involving Oxford University, is not reviewed by other scientists and was ‘written quickly’, the authors admit.
    Comparing current and historic temperatures at seven weather stations, they say manmade climate change more than doubled the chance of a heatwave in Dublin and multiplied it by five in Copenhagen.

    Co-author Dr Friederike Otto, deputy director of the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University, said: ‘The logic that climate change will do this is inescapable – the world is becoming warmer, and so heatwaves like this are becoming more common.’

    Experts have this week urged caution on linking the heatwave to climate change, stating it may still be a one-off instead of part of an emerging pattern.
    Professor Sir Brian Hoskins, who heads the UK Climate Programme peer review panel, said: ‘Climate change is a contributing factor in the heatwave as the northern hemisphere is now one or two degrees warmer so any hot spell is going to be even hotter. However, the summer of 1976 shows such summers in the UK can and have happened before.’

    ***Experts say it is unusual for researchers to use predicted temperatures, as the WWA Network did for the three days from Thursday to today in their calculations.
    The team used modelling to compare the likelihood of the heatwave in today’s world with the chances of it in a world without manmade climate change.
    The results show climate change increased the chance of a heatwave in the Netherlands by up to three times – although trends could not be estimated for two weather stations in Finland and one each in Norway and Sweden…
    http://mailonline.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx

    however, this is readily available on the DM website:

    28 Jul: Daily Mail: Associated Press: Climate change IS behind the ‘weirdness’ of Earth’s current weather as 118 of all-time heat records have been set or tied across the globe
    •Flood-inducing downpours have pounded the U.S. East this week
    •Japan hit 106 degrees on Monday, its hottest temperature ever.
    •Records fell in parts of Massachusetts, Maine, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, New Mexico and Texas.
    •Europe saw temperatures they have never seen before on any date
    It’s all part of summer – but it’s all being made worse by human-caused climate change, scientists say.
    ‘Weirdness abounds,’ said Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis…

    The explanations should sound as familiar as the crash of broken records.
    ‘We now have very strong evidence that global warming has already put a thumb on the scales, upping the odds of extremes like severe heat and heavy rainfall,’ Stanford University climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh said.
    ‘We find that global warming has increased the odds of record-setting hot events over more than 80 percent of the planet, and has increased the odds of record-setting wet events at around half of the planet.’…

    The same jet stream pattern caused the 2003 European heat wave, the 2010 Russian heat wave and fires, the 2011 Texas and Oklahoma drought and the 2016 Canadian wildfires, Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said, pointing to past studies by him and others.
    He said in an email that these extremes are ‘becoming more common because of human-caused climate change and in particular, the amplified warming in the Arctic.’

    Climate scientists have long said they can’t directly link single weather events, like a heat wave, to human caused climate change without extensive study…
    A study by European scientists Friday found that the ongoing European heat wave is twice as likely because of human-caused global warming, though those conclusions have not yet been confirmed by outside scientists.

    ‘The world is becoming warmer and so heatwaves like this are becoming more common,’ said Friederike Otto, a member of the team and deputy director of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford.
    Erich Fischer, an expert on weather extremes at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich who wasn’t part of the analysis said the authors used well-established methods to make their conclusions.
    Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb said the link between climate change and fires isn’t as strong as it is with heat waves, but it is becoming clearer.
    A devastating fire in Greece – with at least 83 fatalities – is the deadliest fire in Europe since 1900, according to the International Disaster Database run by the Centre for the Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters in Brussels, Belgium.

    In the United States on Friday there were 89 active large fires, consuming nearly 900,000 acres, according the National Interagency Fire Center. So far this year, fires have burned 4.15 million acres, which is nearly 14 percent higher than average over the past 10 years.

    The first major science study to connect greenhouse gases to stronger and longer heat waves was in 2004. It was titled ‘More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century.’ Study author Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research said Friday that now it ‘reads like a prediction of what has been happening and will continue to happen as long as average temperatures continue to rise with ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels. It’s no mystery.’
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6000715/Science-Says-record-heat-fires-worsened-climate-change.html

    20

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      I expect the rising summer temperatures in northern Europe are so bad that millions now take their summer holidays in Svalbard, Baffin Island or northern Siberia.

      30

      • #
        ROM

        July 31st Forecast for Longyearbyen; Svalbard;
        .

        early am; 7 C ; Mostly cloudy;
        .
        Today; 12 C; Mild– Times of sun and clouds.
        .
        Tonight; 10 C ; Low Cloud , Mild
        —————-

        Horsham; Victoria

        July 31 st

        Early am; 7 C; windy

        12 pm ; 14 C; Windy. Mostly clear

        9 pm; 8 C. Showers

        Currently we here in Victoria can offer a warm welcome and an alternative holiday destination to that of Svalbard with all the comforts and benefits such a salubrious climate brings.

        50

  • #
    pat

    building the hysteria – read all:

    28 Jul: InsideClimateNews: This Summer’s Heat Waves Could Be the Strongest Climate Signal Yet
    ‘In many places, people are preparing for the past or present climate. But this summer is the future.’
    By Bob Berwyn
    Earth’s global warming fever spiked to deadly new highs across the Northern Hemisphere this summer, and we’re feeling the results—extreme heat is now blamed for hundreds of deaths, droughts threaten food supplies, wildfires have raced through neighborhoods in the western United States, Greece and as far north as the Arctic Circle…

    There shouldn’t be any doubt that some of the deadliest of this summer’s disasters—including flooding in Japan and wildfires in Greece—are fueled by weather extremes linked to global warming, said Corinne Le Quéré, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia.
    “We know very well that global warming is making heat waves longer, hotter and more frequent,” she said.
    “The evidence from having extreme events around the world is really compelling. It’s very indicative that the global warming background is causing or at least contributing to these events,” she said…
    “We’re seeing that many things are not built to withstand the heat levels we are seeing now,” Le Quéré said.

    Penn State climate scientist Michael Mann said this summer’s extreme weather fits into a pattern he identified with other researchers in a study published last year. The jet stream’s north-south meanders have been unusually stationary, leading to persistent heat waves and droughts in some areas and days of rain and flooding in others, he said. “Our work last year shows that this sort of pattern … has become more common because of human-caused climate change, and in particular, amplified Arctic warming.”…

    Across social media, climate scientists are responding with a collective “we warned about this,” posting links to 10 years’ worth of studies that have consistently been projecting increases in deadly heat waves. If anything, the warnings may have been understated…

    Tyndall Centre Director Le Quéré said she faulted some media for failing to connect global warming to the current global heat wave. “This signal is very clear,” she said, adding that some of the early stories about the deadly fire in Greece almost seemed to downplay a link to climate change…

    Listen to a conversation about the extreme heat and climate change with ICN Managing Editor John H. Cushman, Jr., at On Point (LINK).
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27072018/summer-2018-heat-wave-wildfires-climate-change-evidence-crops-flooding-deaths-records-broken

    30

  • #
    pat

    28 Jul: Irish Mirror: Siobhan O’Connor on Ireland’s climate crisis – Let’s not all be as stupid as Donald Trump by ignoring this global warning
    ‘I’m a sun worshipper and the first one to don my swimsuit and frolic in the Irish Sea, but I too am panicked by the reality that if we don’t act fast this earth of ours will be decimated’

    I’ve heard numerous theories other than climate change which are making folk avoid facing up the reality that the world is falling apart…
    The meteorologist told how this hot spell was similar to the long hot summer of 1995 when the mercury rose over 25C on 27 days in Kilkenny – and the Carlow temperature hit 31.5°C at its peak…

    In the last few days the Dail, passed a Bill which will mean no more cash goes into coal, oil and gas which are the key culprits in driving global climate change. Donegal Independent TD Thomas Pringle introduced the Fossil Fuel Divestment Bill and said: “Climate change is real, and if we are going to have any chance of meeting the [climate] goals, we may as well start now.”
    Under the terms of the legislation, to be passed this autumn, the Ireland Strategic Investment fund, the state Investment body – will be banned from investing in any company that derives more than 20% of its revenues from fossil fuels…

    Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said he wanted Ireland to be ***a world leader in climate change*** when he took up office but yet we are failing on many levels.
    The new report stated the country is on track to miss many of its targets – and that our emissions are increasing…

    We aren’t quite as stupid as Donald Trump who has been denying climate change since he took up office, rather we are in denial and it’s suiting us to turn a blind eye as we enjoy weather that feels like California dreaming.

    We happily joke about the best summer in decades being a throwback to the scorcher that was 1976 and say sure we deserve these glorious highs, this is pay back for all the summers of misery.

    You hear older wiser people saying they used to have proper seasons back in the day but this rose tinted outlook is not scientific whilst rising temperatures are. Deep down we know the ball of yellow in our sky of late is dodgy and the earth is burning up. It’s a bitter pill to swallow but the instant gratification of our beautiful sunny days is a precursor to doomsday when the planet overheats and we all pay the price…
    https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/siobhan-oconnor-irelands-climate-crisis-12992476

    28 Jul: Breitbart: James Delingpole: Don’t Let The Climate Nutcases Ruin Your Lovely Summer!
    Gosh I’m enjoying this lovely sunny weather we’ve been having. Aren’t you?
    It takes me right back to the last time I can remember England experiencing such a long period of glorious warmth and sunshine: the near-legendary “Summer of ’76”…

    English summers are basically crap; the weather we’re experiencing right now is the exception, not the rule; it’s a joyous relief from years and years and bloody years of otherwise relentless disappointment.
    So how thick and warped and demented and addled by stupid, petulant, twisted, anti-human, anti-capitalist, anti-scientific, anti-empirical green groupthink would you have to be to find anything remotely troublesome about this welcome run of delicious balmy heat?…

    Incidentally, this thing we’re experiencing now feels very much like the “Barbecue Summer” that the Met Office predicted in 2009 — the one that turned out to be a washout because it’s super-duper computer models were actually pretty rubbish.
    Like NASA and NOAA, the UK Met Office parted company with honest science quite some time ago, in favour of climate activism…

    Back to my original point: yes this summer has been delightfully dry and hot; yes the summer of ’76 was also delightfully dry and hot.

    ***But what about all the summers in between those 42 years. What about them eh?
    To put it another way, if one hot summer is damning proof of global warming, then what conclusion are we to draw from the 40 odd summers which were just kind of meh? Are we just supposed to ignore them because they don’t suit the alarmist narrative?

    Well presumably that’s what they’d like us to do, all those Stotts and Harrabins and Bienkovs and Allens and Leggetts — saddoes so bound up and defined by their doomsday Weltanschauung that their only use for a balmy summer is as alarmist tragedy porn…
    https://www.breitbart.com/london/2018/07/28/this-warm-summer-is-not-what-climate-change-looks-like/

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    Dave in the States

    Another evidence that NASA/GISS data are corrupt. I don’t trust NASA/GISS as far as I can spit.

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    pat

    for Siobhan O’Connor, Irish Mirror:

    29 Jul: American Thinker: Meanwhile, the Chinese think Trump is a genius
    By Monica Showalter
    Has anyone ever called the Chinese ‘stupid’? Not those guys.
    So now they’re reading President Trump, and unlike the childish Eurotrash of western Europe, they see a shrewd, wily, chess-playing, Sun Tzu-grade genius, who could easily checkmate them, and they’ve got a lot of reasons for thinking so.

    That’s the report from a European policy-domo, who actually went to Beijing and asked the local leaders what they were seeing. The report that European Council of Foreign Relations President Mark Leonard gives, in the Financial Times (LINK), is well worth the subscription or trial subscription to read it. Some of his thoughts from the piece can be read on Instapundit (LINK), however. Here’s a bit of what Glenn Reynolds posted…READ ON
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/07/the_chinese_think_trump_is_a_genius.html#ixzz5MgIiWV3c

    terrific piece by Republican/Libertarian Wayne Allyn Root:

    28 Jul: Las Vegas Review Journal: COMMENTARY: Everybody hates Donald Trump — or do they?
    by Wayne Allyn Root
    What a two-week period for President Donald J. Trump.
    They’re all rooting against him, thereby (by default) hoping America, the U.S. economy and middle-class job growth either fail or fall short. And it’s not just Democrats. It’s virtually everyone in power, in government, in the establishment.

    Economists are rooting for Trump to fail. Democrats are rooting for Trump to fail. Ivy League eggheads are rooting for Trump to fail. The media are rooting for Trump to fail. Hollywood celebrities are rooting for Trump (and the economy) to fail.
    The Deep State is rooting for Trump to fail (and be impeached). The whole D.C. Swamp — including the GOP establishment (think John McCain and Paul Ryan) are rooting for Trump to fail.

    The entire welfare industrial complex — meaning anyone and everyone among the 110 million Americans on some form of welfare or government handout — is rooting for Trump to fail…
    Everyone in the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez fan club — i.e., those who hate America, hate capitalism and want everything for free: free college; free Medicaid for all; free welfare checks for everyone (universal income); free abortions for all; a free ride for every illegal alien (abolish ICE and open borders). I call it EIM — the Embrace Insanity Movement. They’re all rooting for Trump to fail.

    But a funny thing is happening. Even though everyone seems to hate Trump … they don’t. In the midst of all this hate, Trump’s popularity is expanding and exploding upward…READ AKK
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/opinion-columns/wayne-allyn-root/commentary-everybody-hates-donald-trump-or-do-they/

    very funny piece by Howie Carr, read all:

    29 Jul: Boston Herald: Howie Carr: Moonbats plagued by Trump
    Donald Trump is the greatest threat to human life since the Black Death.
    As anyone who watches CNN or MSNBC knows, his policies have already murdered millions, er, billions, no make that trillions of people. It must be true, I saw it on Facebook.
    Trump’s death toll is staggering. It’s one genocide after another — net neutrality, tax cuts, pulling out of the Paris “climate accords,” Brett Kavanaugh, the Muslim travel ban, ripping children from their mothers’ arms, etc., etc.
    Who knew that full employment, a roaring economy and the destruction of ISIS could lead to the premature deaths of tens of millions of Democrats? But that’s what they’re saying on social — or should I say anti-social — media…
    http://www.bostonherald.com/news/columnists/howie_carr/2018/07/howie_carr_moonbats_plagued_by_trump

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    pat

    comment in moderation re:

    for Siobhan O’Connor, Irish Mirror:
    29 Jul: American Thinker: Meanwhile, the Chinese think Trump is a genius

    28 Jul: Daily Mail: Why are today’s leaders hysterical doom merchants? QUENTIN LETTS asks whatever happened to Keep Calm and Carry On
    Hot July has been the month our political class finally went the full lemming. Actually, that may be a little unkind to the Arctic ‘Lemmus lemmus’, whose tendency to leap suicidally off cliffs en masse has been exaggerated by Hollywood and cartoonists.

    But this has been a month our administrative elite, driven round the twist by the heat, Brexit and general, gibbering fears of its impending demise, has behaved in a manner so hyperbolic and self-damaging that those stubby-snouted, northern hemisphere rodents might justifiably feel aggrieved at comparisons. ‘Excuse me,’ coughs Larry the Lemming, ‘but we small, furry chaps look fairly sane compared with your doom- spreading public servants.’
    In a collective attack of the screaming abdabs, our functionaries have been forecasting calamity…

    The BBC’s (markedly Europhile) business editor, Simon Jack, said a no-deal Brexit would cause a national shortage of sandwiches. And The Guardian reported that we were likely to start killing ourselves in greater numbers. It was not clear if that would be a result of the maddening heat or because we were all so demoralised after reading the latest column by the paper’s resident shroud-waver, Polly Toynbee.

    The Met Office, once a level-headed analyst of barographs and incoming weather fronts, issued bubonic plague-style warnings that we should not step outside in this heat and should not open our windows…READ ALL
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6001285/QUENTIN-LETTS-asks-happened-Calm-Carry-On.html

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    pat

    27 Jul: Vox: The West is on fire … again
    The fire season now runs almost year-round, and 2018 is already worse than usual in California, Colorado, and Oregon.
    By Umair Irfan
    Wildfires have almost become a year-round threat in some parts of the western United States. From Colorado to California, it feels like the blazes from last year never went out.
    Flames ignited forests and chaparral virtually nonstop in 2017, and the year ended with record infernos in Southern California that burned well into 2018.
    Officials don’t refer to “fire seasons anymore but rather to fire years,” Jennifer Jones, a spokesperson for the National Interagency Fire Center, told me in an email…

    For one thing, humans start the vast majority of these fires, upward of 84 percent of them. California officials have blamed a dozen of last year’s fires on Pacific Gas and Electric’s power lines. Utilities were also blamed for fires in Nevada. Arson was suspected for fires in Northern California.
    Another factor is how humans use the land. People are increasingly building closer to the wilderness, blurring the line between suburbs and shrubland. That means that when fires do burn, they threaten more lives and property. Meanwhile, active fire suppression in some areas has allowed dry vegetation to accumulate, so when embers ignite, it causes a massive conflagration…

    And of course, the climate is changing, mostly due to human activity…

    There are 129 million dead trees in California alone. Across the state, the total number of fires is trending downward, but the size of fires is going up…
    But in Southern California’s fires, like last year’s Thomas Fire, scientists don’t see a climate signal just yet. The region is hot and dry year-round…

    “Although [2017] was the second highest number of acres burned since 1960, it is a fraction of the more than 1 billion acres of vegetated landscapes in the U.S., so there is a lot of land left to burn,” said NIFC’s Jones.
    In fact, new vegetation has already sprung up. That’s because the winter brought much-needed moisture to the drought-stricken West, despite an unusually warm winter.
    Scott McLean, a spokesperson for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire), explained that the precipitation spurred fast-growing grasses and shrubs…

    There are still drought conditions in Colorado, Utah, and Arizona that will likely persist even after seasonal rains, and lightning from the storms threatens to ignite new wildfires…
    But with more development in fire-prone regions, it’s getting harder to balance the demands to protect property against the need for the land to burn…
    https://www.vox.com/2018/7/20/17582890/wildfires-2018-carr-fire-california-cranston-ferguson-colorado

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    What is the point of comparing two landscapes separated by centuries just because they are in the same physical position? It is almost certain that any landscape over a hundred or two hundred years has been drastically altered.

    The weather conditions which produced the Chicago-Peshtigo-Great Lakes fires in 1871 were indeed freakish, almost impossibly so when you consider the fires occurred in mid-autumn. Nonetheless, it is also true that nearly all buildings were of wood and that the whole region was littered with the off-cuts of a massive timber industry.

    When Victoria experienced what may be history’s biggest wildfire in 1851 aboriginal burning practices had slowed or ceased while much forest had not yet been cleared. Victoria was different before white settlement to how it was several decades after settlement. And after a century of clearing and agriculture it was different again. We might add that wacko green management policies are a new ingredient in recent years. (Mind you, none of this detracts from the terrifying account of 1851 as mentioned above by ROM. Just like that super El Nino that nearly wiped out the new colony in the early 1790s, it shows that no brutal climatic extreme is new to this continent.)

    It’s a bit like comparing heatwaves with small and large populations, or heatwaves before and after air-con. In fact, Australia’s two deadliest natural disasters were both heatwaves: in 1896 and 1939 (heat only, Black Friday fires extra). And if there had been more people in 1896 as compared to 2009? And if air-con had been available in 1896 as it was in 2009? (My money is on 1896 to be the pick of our natural horrors. That’s from using my loaf as well as a bunch of numbers. I could be wrong.)

    How to be a crack researcher and statistician:

    Buy an apple and an orange. Slop some orange paint over the apple. Now compare your two oranges and find some dramatic differences, adding paint to fancy and drawing any conclusions about oranges you think appropriate. Publish.

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      PeterW

      Properly done, comparing landscapes is very valid.
      Aboriginals changed their landscape in order to get better outcomes. So have we, but with different outcomes in mind (agriculture, etc)

      The point is that our current “landscape” is not set in concrete. We can and SHOULD change some aspects of it in order to reduce the incidence of high-intensity damaging fires.

      It is not the comparing of apples and oranges that is the problem, here. It is the denial that there is a difference and the pretence that we can get orange juice by continuing to cultivate apple trees.

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    TdeF

    The amount of made up alleged science is astounding. Whether the CO2 increase is natural or man made. Whether CO2 is heating the planet and dangerously. Whether the rate of temperature increase is going to be maintained. The way in which the unproven ideas were turned into endless predictions of disaster is beyond belief.

    Why should a slight increase in temperature mean more and stronger fires? More storms and bigger storms? More and more frequent and longer droughts? (a fundamental contradiction)

    Who actually predicted all this and on what basis? The computer models presented had trouble getting the temperature right, a single parameter. How could anyone draw such complex conclusions from computer models which could not even predict the major weather patterns like El Nino and La Nina and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation? Why were storms like Katrina alleged to be Climate Change instead of one of the 15 or so major storms to hit the area every year?

    No one ever explained who drew these amazing conclusions about storms and fires and floods as scientific certainty? We were just told such nonsense without explanation.

    Looking back now on thirty years of this misinformation, half a lifetime, nothing has been right. Not a single prediction from hundreds.

    However our politicians are forcing coal power stations to close and stealing our cash and borrowing trillions in our name, all to save the planet? Australians are brave, but how are we going to save the whole planet?

    At what point will our opportunistic Progressive politicians stop pushing this absurd idea that Carbon Dioxide is dangerous planet killing pollution or even more ridiculously, that our massive personal sacrifice will make the slightest difference to the climate? Cui Bono?

    So far the only result of a natural 50% increase in CO2 over 100 years is more food.
    The other result is the biggest waste of the world’s resources in human history, unbelievably in the name of conservation.

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      Yonniestone

      Increased CO2 equals more food equals more people or stability of life, here is the real objective of the war on CO2 not the compound itself but the life that depends on it.

      Making up outlandish stories about reality to a wide eyed audience started in caves, it just moved on to bigger venues to enthrall a larger number.

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      TdeF

      For those who want to read Said Hanrahan.

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    Roy Hogue

    Regardless of the trend, which looks good on paper, this years fires in California have been the worst in my memory. All it takes is a few years of insufficient rain, a hot day and a wind blowing the fire before it like an army driven forward by the general behind the battle line. This year we’re killing people.

    I know we’re not the only ones with fire problems but when the wind simply drives the fire forward with little hope of stopping it and all you can do is try to save people’s homes, it looks pretty bad, a disaster in fact.

    And I note comments about risk management and fire prevention. Those have been neglected, intentionally. I’m not accusing anyone of wanting a fire or wanting someone to die because of it. But that is the net effect of neglecting good practice that we once knew we should do.

    Under the circumstances, especially drought, I don’t think we could have avoided a disastrous fire driven by he wind. Wind will carry a fire right over a fire break almost no matter how wide you make it.

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      Roy Hogue

      I suppose I should add that I’m in serious doubt that global warming is even happening and CO2 increases in the atmosphere are probably insignificant in the range or forest fire picture and it’s a lot of accidental correlation at best.

      The weather does what it pleases and on hot days there are plenty of sources of ignition. Arson is one of them and the guilty are so low on my list that I wouldn’t blink more than a couple of times if they got caught in the fire they made. They don’t deserve that but it’s too easy to wish for that kind of justice.

      Here in southern California we make it a hundred times worse by building up into forested areas where of course it’s beautiful and attractive to live. But then comes the dry weather and suddenly you’re running for your life. You and your property can’t be defended and the house burns and you run. Why do we do that?

      Why do we try to connect everything with climate change?

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    Gary H

    From Tony Watts, back in May, 2016:

    New study shows no wildfire increases due to global warming, slight decline in recent decades noted
    Anthony Watts / May 2016

    From SWANSEA UNIVERSITY: Wildfire — it’s not spreading like wildfire

    Global wildfire: Misconceptions about trends and impacts revealed in new research

    A new analysis of global data related to wildfire, published by the Royal Society, reveals major misconceptions about wildfire and its social and economic impacts.

    Prof. Stefan Doerr and Dr Cristina Santin from Swansea University’s College of Science carried out detailed analysis of global and regional data on fire occurrence, severity and its impacts on society.

    Their research, published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, looked at charcoal records in sediments and isotope-ratio records in ice cores, to build up a picture of wildfire in the past.

    In contrast to what is widely portrayed in the literature and media reports, they found that:

    • global area burned has seen an overall slight decline over past decades, despite some notable regional increases. Currently, around 4% of the global land surface is affected by vegetation fires each year.

    • there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago.

    • direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades.

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      Roy Hogue

      I could pick this apart if I wanted to. And I think I will.

      On point 1: Slight decline — we do get better at fighting fires and slight is hardly an objective standard of measurement. In the next few decades the result might become a sight increase.

      On point 2: Who can say for certain what was going on centuries ago? Centuries ago a fire could start somewhere and no one would even know about it.

      On point 3: This is no point at all because it says past experience is indistinguishable from present experience.

      Why bother to analyze the thing you have no control over, no understanding of what causes the weather conditions conducive to fire, no idea about what starts*** some fires and no sense of the fact that you’ve produced a report that says nothing?

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        Roy Hogue

        *** I live in fire territory and I’ve seen a a lot of different things blamed for a fire.

        A Google search for top causes of forest/range fires gets me this.

        Humans and Wildfire. As many as 90 percent of wildland fires in the United States are caused by humans. Human-caused fires result from campfires left unattended, the burning of debris, negligently discarded cigarettes, and intentional acts of arson. Cigarettes are one way humans can cause fires

        And that rings too true to ignore. We do most of it to ourselves. We need a better act than that.

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          Gary H

          So . . when are you to ‘pick it apart?’

          Yes, arson and other human actions are a major direct cause of most forest fires. The question is, ‘where does man-made climate change fit into the equation?’

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            el gordo

            AGW doesn’t fit, but human folly does. In defence of humanity, we can do nothing about lightning strikes.

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            Roy Hogue

            Since I omitted manmade climate change from what I said, in fact I said I don’t believe it’s happening, I figure that settled it. But if not, I don’t believe it’s even happening, much less contributing to forest and range fires.

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        PeterW

        Ray…..

        History is not a exact science, so there is less that we can say “for certain” than you might think.

        However, that does not excuse us from denying what indicators do exists. After all, we had no digital weather stations or satellite measurements for any of the ice-ages, but we don’t dismiss them, either.

        So when we have observations recorded in the journals and letters of early European explorers, charcoal deposits, anthropological evidence of cultural fire use and biological evidence consistent with high fire frequencies…… when they all point in the same direction, we are justified in paying attention.

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          Roy Hogue

          I don’t mind taking note of what evidence the past has to offer. But without some objective standard, which we don’t have, how do we make such statements as you make?

          History is indeed an inexact science if it’s a science at all. And a belief in manmade climate change needs a well defined objective standard. And we do not have one.

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    Zigmaster

    Jo
    I’m no maths genius but the total death rate in the table 2 in the article as shown appears to be incorrect, suggesting that it is 78 per event ( which is the sum of the various averages rather than the actual total amount ) which is 1940 people killed in 303 events globally ie 0nly 6 people per event.
    It actually means that the total death rate is overstated by a factor of 13 X .

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    KinkyKeith

    Fires are basically thoughtless beasts and will do what they’ve got to do.

    There will always be fires so all we can do is put in a lot effort to keep stuff that burns to a minimum.

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    Rosco

    I’ve always said – if you MUST obsess about any atmospheric gas you should concentrate on the one that does the most damage.

    Oxidation is the curse of mankind – fire, explosion or just slow degradation.

    Oxygen trumps CO2 for dangerous capabilities every time !

    Let’s ban oxygen.

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    PeterW

    What should be understood and repeated when we are faced with the current co2 panic, is that on any significant timescale, landscape burning is co2 neutral.

    Plants absorb it, fire and decay release it. It’s a cycle.

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      Roy Hogue

      And what most needs to happen when there’s a panic is to sit down, take a deep breath and reevaluate what you’re panicking over. Panic never helps. It paralyzes your ability to think.

      Even if a wall of fire is advancing toward you there’s a better chance if you think through your options than if you panic. Even if your airplane is going down you might have a better chance if you can protect yourself against the impact than if you scream.

      The climate change pushers want us to panic. Refuse to do it. If noting else it causes them heartburn, mental disorders and hysterical condemnation of sensible people who refuse to panic. They lose and we win.

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    thingadonta

    It might be getting a little wetter, colder generally means dryer, warmer generally means wetter, therefore less fires. This should show up in more floods though.

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    David Maddison

    It should be recognised that many fires may in fact be terrorist attacks. Al Quaeda have in fact promoted “pyro-terrorism” in Australia and presumably elsewhere.

    Right now, Israel is being subjected to terrorist attacks via incendiary balloons launched by terrorists in Gaza.

    https://amp.smh.com.au/national/scorched-earth-terror-threat-20120505-1y5o6.html

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      PeterS

      A lot of the fires have indeed been attributed to arsonists. The recent major fires in Greece that results in many deaths has been attributed to arsonists after satellite images were analysed and ground inspections carried out. Yet I don’t hear the leftists ever pointing the finger at the arsonists and instead point their finger at coal fired power stations and demand they be shut down as if that will stop the fired from happening again. Stupid is as stupid does.

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    pat

    yikes! 100% recommended listening. Judith Sloan for PM?

    AUDIO: 53mins58secs: 30 Jul: ABC Big Ideas: Australia’s energy future
    Does coal fired electricity have a future in Australia, or will we be powered by renewable energy? An expert panel discusses electricity prices, emissions, and where our energy will come from.
    Recorded at the Noosa Alive Festival on 21 July, 2018.
    Speakers
    Lana Assaf -Senior Manager, Environment, RPS Australia.
    Paul Gleeson – Fellow of the Institute of Engineers Australia, Energy leader, East Coast, Aurecon.
    Professor Judith Sloan – economist, company director, contributing Economics Editor at The Australian.
    Simon Breheny – Director of Policy, the Institute of Public Affairs.
    moderator – Paul Barclay
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/australias-energy-future/10025208

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      PeterS

      Yes Judith Sloan sounded good but let’s face it. Just about anyone or anything would run the nation better than the current crowd lead by Turnbull; even a drover’s dog.

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      • #

        Here’s a challenge. See if you can leave a blog post untouched by your political views. We all know them now.

        “Oh there is a blood mooon tonight bla blah Malcolm Turnbull blah blah”. Etc.

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          PeterS

          My political views are aligned with almost all the others here so why are you directing that challenge just to me?

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      el gordo

      ‘Recorded at the Noosa Alive Festival on 21 July, 2018.’

      They had a moderator but he was only a token.

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    TdeF

    It is a little unfair to compare wildfires which can be extinguished with earthquakes and floods which can neither be prevented nor remedied, although historic dangers can be ignored. For example, does anyone think Naples in Italy is well sited next to Mount Vesuvius?

    Even the flooding of New Orleans caused by Katrina was fundamentally related to the world’s greatest subsidence that year, 1 metre/3 feet in a year in New Orleans. This of course lowered the sea walls one meter. It’s just that the implications of this were not realised until after the collapse of the wall. The flooding of Fukishima was predicted by engineers and the predictions were ignored. The emergency pumps at the Nuclear Plant were untested and in the basement. Hindsight is a great teacher but once floods and earthquakes happen, it is all about saving lives not property.

    We in Australia have not learned about evacuation, unlike the US. We had our Black Saturday with the loss of two thousand houses and over 200 lives. The US had an almost identical house count and only 20 lives lost because they are forced to evacuate. In contrast our Herald Sun actually leonized a man on his roof in thongs and shorts with a garden hose as a hero. In the US he would have been arrested. Lives are more important than property and a garden hose is no defence in 800C, as many found out.

    As for blaming everything on Climate Change. I can quote Hanrahan (the 19th Century Tim Flannery)

    “There’ll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
    There will, without a doubt;
    We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
    “Before the year is out.”

    It is the climate. A land of rugged mountain ranges, of droughts and flooding rains. And bushfires.

    I might also point out that the bushfires in California and Greece are in highly flammable fast growing Australian Gum trees, exported in huge quantity in the 1880s. That’s not Climate Change either. You reap what you sow. Life has risks. A changing climate is just one of them and so far not distinguishable from the weather.

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      TdeF

      For those who want to read Said Hanrahan. The other places with Australian gum trees are Israel and Spain. Perfect for their dry climates but like pine trees and unlike elms, oaks, maples, birches and plane trees they are filled with flammable gum or resin and reproduce by fire.

      It is also appalling that ecologically ignorant Greens apply race to trees, especially in Councils. They are removing ‘English’ trees and replacing them with ‘Australian’ trees. So unlike early Australians who knew the problems first hand, cleared around their farms and planted peppercorn trees near every farm house as the resin repelled the flies. Marigolds too as the pyrethum kept the insects away. (Marigold are grown for Moretein.)

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      David Maddison

      Australian Eucalyptus (gum) trees are the world’s most popular commercial tree crop. And from Wikipedia, here is the story about Eucalyptus in California:

      California
      In the 1850s, Eucalyptus trees were introduced to California by Australians during the California Gold Rush. Much of California has a similar climate to parts of Australia. By the early 1900s, thousands of acres of eucalypts were planted with the encouragement of the state government. It was hoped that they would provide a renewable source of timber for construction, furniture making and railroad ties. It was soon found that for the latter purpose eucalyptus was particularly unsuitable, as the ties made from eucalyptus had a tendency to twist while drying, and the dried ties were so tough that it was nearly impossible to hammer rail spikes into them.

      They went on to note that the promise of eucalyptus in California was based on the old virgin forests of Australia. This was a mistake, as the young trees being harvested in California could not compare in quality to the centuries-old eucalyptus timber of Australia. It reacted differently to harvest. The older trees didn’t split or warp as the infant California crop did. There was a vast difference between the two, and this would doom the California eucalyptus industry.[49]

      One way in which the eucalyptus, mainly the blue gum E. globulus, proved valuable in California was in providing windbreaks for highways, orange groves, and farms in the mostly treeless central part of the state. They are also admired as shade and ornamental trees in many cities and gardens.

      Eucalyptus plantations in California have been criticised, because they compete with native plants and do not support native animals. Fire is also a problem. The 1991 Oakland Hills firestorm, which destroyed almost 3,000 homes and killed 25 people, was partly fuelled by large numbers of eucalypts close to the houses.[50]

      In some parts of California, eucalypt plantations are being removed and native trees and plants restored. Individuals have also illegally destroyed some trees and are suspected of introducing insect pests from Australia which attack the trees.[51]

      Certain eucalyptus species may also be grown for ornament in warmer parts of the Pacific Northwest — western Washington, western Oregon and southwestern British Columbia.

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        toorightmate

        I have been watching TV footage of Californian bushfires every year for at least 10 years every July and August.
        The fact that Moonbeam is their governor absolutely proves that they are very, very slow learners.
        The fact that these killer bush fires occur annually is a disgusting reflection of the poor governance of that state.

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      Horace Jason Oxboggle

      Hi, Ted

      I drove with family through the area of Black Saturday about three weeks before it happened. In some areas that were devastated there were piles of felled timber at least two metres high on either side of the road. Obviously we had learned nothing from aboriginal residents of the area. The same sort of thing happened in Canberra when they experienced their fire.

      I’m seventy-six years old, and live in hope that we will learn collectively before I leave this planet. I’m not confident of that happening. Incidentally, I plan to have my remains cremated. Will I be contributing to Global Warming/Climate Change/Climate Disruption/The Ever-Present Absence of Climate Conformity?

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    toorightmate

    Brisbane’s Courier Mail today tells us that storms in Queensland are increasing in frequency and intensity.
    So it appears that News Ltd has joined the FAKE NEWS club.

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    pat

    re comment #12 – AP article in Daily Mail headlined -

    28 Jul: Daily Mail: Associated Press: Climate change IS behind the ‘weirdness’ of Earth’s current weather as 118 of all-time heat records have been set or tied across the globe

    just noting it is, unsurprisingly, co-authored by SETH BORENSTEIN:

    28 Jul: Phys.org: Science Says: Record heat, fires worsened by climate change
    by Seth Borenstein And Frank Jordans, AP
    https://phys.org/news/2018-07-science-worsened-climate.html

    MSM not too interested in this good news:

    30 Jul: ABC America: AP: Sweden sends home foreign firefighters as wildfires die down
    Britta Ramberg, operative director of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, said firefighters from France, Germany and Portugal have been assisting in efforts against dozens of wildfires mostly in central, western and northern Sweden.
    Residents from a small town near the Arctic Circle who had been evacuated because of the wildfires were allowed to return home Monday, Sweden’s TT news agency reported.
    Ramberg says local firefighters now could handle the several fires still remaining. She added a few of the international helpers and equipment would remain in Sweden…

    and now?

    30 Jul: eNCA: AFP: Portugal prepares for fire intervention as heatwave approaches
    LISBON – Portugal said Monday it has mobilised more than 10,000 people and boosted control operations in fire-prone areas of the country ahead of a major heatwave to avoid a repeat of last year’s deadly wildfires.
    “This year, we have in place the biggest plan ever: 10,700 men and women around the country,” including “voluntary firefighters, police and soldiers,” Interior Minister Eduardo Cabrita told local media.

    Starting on Wednesday, Portugal will face a four-day-long heatwave when temperatures could reach 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit) in places, according to the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA)…
    http://www.enca.com/life/portugal-prepares-for-fire-intervention-as-heatwave-approaches

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  • #
    Shreiking Wombat

    Who bankrolls you?

    [OK. Third repeat question. Answered here. Bot at work. – Jo

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  • #
    pat

    30 Jul: Twitter: Weather/Meteo World
    Here’s that heatwave on its way to the SW of Europe. SW #Spain and #Portugal potentially reaching high 40s Celsius. Video; @metoffice #ExtremeWeather #heatwave #Europe
    Met Office video: 10secs
    https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1023924367447736321

    30 Jul: Sky News: Europe weather forecast: Warning as temperatures could break records
    Holidaymakers are being warned that temperatures in southern Europe this week could be record breakers – possibly in the high 40s.
    By Lucia Binding
    Forecasters are advising holidaymakers in Spain, Portugal and southwest France to prepare for extreme heat by staying inside during the hottest parts of the day and keeping hydrated.
    Very hot weather is expected to build up due to hot air coming up from North Africa – particularly over southwestern Europe…

    Spain’s record high is 47.3C (117.14F) and Portugal’s is 47.4C (117.32F), but these temperatures “could well be beaten”, she added.
    “Southwest France could see temperatures locally top 40C (104F).
    “And 48C (118.4F) is possible across inland parts of Portugal and valleys of southern Spain”.
    The all-time continental European maximum is 48C, recorded in Athens, Greece, in July 1977…
    Disruption to travel is likely, especially on railways, and the threat of wildfires is also likely to increase…

    Meanwhile, the Met Office’s 30-day forecast says the UK should expect another long spell of dry, hot weather, with areas set to be “fine and dry with plenty of sunshine” during August.
    Thunderstorms and atlantic winds of up to 60mph battered Britain on Friday, breaking the 58-day drought.
    Temperatures fell to below 20C and parts of the country saw as much as three inches of rain in what Sky’s weather producer Jo Robinson described as a “blip” in this year’s British summer…
    https://news.sky.com/story/british-holidaymakers-warned-as-southwestern-europe-temperatures-could-break-records-11454207

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  • #
    Duster

    I California prior to what ethnographers and archaeologists refer to as “historic contact,” the native populations deliberately burned over patches every year. Among other things in the Great Valley, the plant biota was marked by perennial grasses and the highest number of flowering plants on the planet. In the Sierra and Coast Ranges, changes in vegetation patterns as reflected in pollen records indicate a steady increase in the prevalence of chapparal communities. Old chapparal is dense, thick brush land with little to offer, freshly burned chapparal attracts deer, bear, birds and small game – a prehistoric super market. Forests in the Sierra Nevada were also burned regularly. In Yosemite prior to the estblishment of the National Park, the entire park area in patches burned in abiout a 25-year cycle. After the park was established there were no fires for over fifty years. Pioneer diaries describe “park-like” forests where presently it is essentially impassable due to brush, slash, fallen tree trunks and “fuel accumulation.” Modern fires tend to be bigger not because of climate but because of fire suppression history. Areas with less federal lands have tended to be more developed and fight fires more stringently. Federal fire management has tried to reestablish a controlled burn regime. If you consider current news stories the damage is actually to towns. Redding and Upper Lake are both partially or wholely evacuated due to fires. And Redding is a a good sized town.

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    • #
      ROM

      Are you sure you are on the right continent, Duster?

      All of that other than than the species could readily be and has been repeated here in SE Australia.

      It is getting a bit more realistic down here as some forestry and environmental departments are now doing regular low intensity burns on some public and forestry lands whenever conditions are suitable.

      However these deliberate low intensity burns are closely tied to which ever political party and / or which ever politician is the Minister responsible for the relevant portfolio.

      The whack job watermelon politicians of course never allow any burning as it will ‘damage the environment’”.

      Aforesaid Ministers are never to be seen during and following a major fire in forests and grasslands particularly when houses and even lives have been lost due to preventable high intensity fires.

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      • #
        Dennis

        We had a Prime Minister Abbott who still remains a very long term bushfire brigade volunteer fire fighter.

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      • #
        Annie

        ROM, that describes a lot of areas around here, despite some efforts at burning off. Even where burning off took place near Marysville I notice that there is still a lot of flammable material lying around.
        Our daughter said that the local greenies lay very low after the 2009 firestorm but they have popped up again the last few years. The middle of our village is a disgraceful mess, thanks to greenie-infested ‘Landcare’ (huh). As a visitor passing through I would not be attracted by the rubbishy sight of the place.

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        • #
          toorightmate

          Can I lend you a gun to use when they pop up?
          It’s a 303 which works like a dream on roos.
          Poor kangaroos you say? Well when they’re eating your stock’s fodder, you quickly lose the compassion for them.
          I also had 3 very close friends killed in car accidents in the 1970s while trying to avoid roos. My love and sympathy for roos does not run very deep at all.

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  • #
    Robber

    More tosh from Josh in The Australian:
    “The Turnbull Government has a laser like focus on reducing people’s power bills and anyone one who opposes the National Energy Guarantee is at best indifferent and, at worst, opposed to this important goal.”

    “It’s important on 10 August that the states and territories come together and support the National Energy Guarantee which is in the national interest, and not raise the white flag to the small but loud voices on the extreme left.”
    Mr Frydenberg said that the national energy guarantee was developed by experts, supported by industry and backed by independent modelling showing the policy would save households $550 a year.

    In fact there have been reports that “indepedent modelling” shows that electricity prices will drop by $300 per year by 20/21 with or without the NEG. Somehow, magically, wholesale prices will drop from $85 to $50/MWhr, almost back to where they were before Hazelwood closed. There is no credibility without supporting evidence. Release the modelling Josh.

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    Harry Twinotter

    So suddenly the scientists are believed when their results coincide with your political ideology! :-)

    I don’t think scientists are saying global warming causes a reduction in wildfires.

    I think it’s a no-brainer that an increase in fire weather will result in an increase in fires, if there is anything left to burn.

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    • #
      el gordo

      ‘So suddenly the scientists are believed when their results coincide with your political ideology!’

      I’m a Marxist.

      ‘I don’t think scientists are saying global warming causes a reduction in wildfires.’

      Its generally believed AGW will cause an increase in wildfires.

      ‘… if there is anything left to burn.’

      There are firebugs and vandals out to cause mischief, they turn up everywhere.

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    • #
      ROM

      Harry Twinotter @ # 36

      “So suddenly the scientists are believed when their results coincide with your political ideology”
      .

      Yup! I couldn’t have expressed the attitudes towards science from those of your fixated and irrational ideological doomsday persuasion any better, Harry Twinotter.

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    • #
      el gordo

      Its a fait accompli …..

      ‘If you wonder why so many fires, then it may be appropriate to point out the rather obvious. We live on a warming world where the seasonal temperatures being recorded within many regions has been unprecedented, and so it is drying out bushland and setting the stage for just one spark.’

      Skeptical Science

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      • #
        sophocles

        … and thunder storms are always with us. One lightning strike is all it has ever taken to set off a forest fire.

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  • #
    Roger Rabbit

    At the risk of being wrong …

    May I suggest that all bushfire vulnerable towns have a couple of FIRE MAINS circling the town with Lay Flat Hoses for those who can use them and Fire Hose Reels for those who cannot ..

    Along with some beefy pumps and enough water to last out a major fire.

    Either the locals can defend or if it is way too dangerous then the Firies can be choppered in from town to town as needed without the need to lug Fire Trucks along bush roads?

    If the town cannot defend itself or be defendable then it might be time to consider moving somewhere safe rather than relying on water bombers et al?

    My 2c worth …

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  • #
    Bruce of Newcastle

    Jo gets a citation in the Washington Times for her post on wildfires:

    Climate change alarmists burned by studies showing destructive wildfires in decline

    Nice to see it a newspaper in the capital of the US. Well done Jo!

    00