JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

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178 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #
    Mark M

    IPCC 2001 : “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms”

    https://realclimatescience.com/2017/12/ipcc-2001-milder-winter-temperatures-will-decrease-heavy-snowstorms/

    2018: It’s official. There was a record amount of snow last season.

    Experts confirm Swiss winter broke records for snowfall

    https://www.thelocal.ch/20180504/experts-confirm-winter-broke-records-for-snowfall?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

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      yarpos

      I guess if children arent going to know what snow is, maybe we should start calling it something else?

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      PeterS

      Well Flannery tried to convince us that rain would never fall again and so in the typical Orwellian leftists approach expected people to forget what rain looked like. Same could be said now that snow is plentiful despite the false predictions of the leftists.

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    • #
      el gordo

      I’m writing a comedy and testing my lines on the leftists, but they don’t laugh, which is a big worry.

      Coral bleaching is my favourite, a sea level drop in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean because of a strong El Nino. Only blank stares and the sound of crickets.

      Some of you may remember the radio comedy ‘Yes What’, which I’m using as a skeleton, so imagine Greenbottle as devil’s advocate. Its a lot funnier when seen in that light.

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  • #
    Don A

    Dear Friends, I have recently been having a discussion with a Canadian friend about Global warming, as detailed exhaustively below. My question is have I made any stupid mistakes and am I winning?

    Don A
    May 2 at 10:23pm ·
    GLOBAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL.
    In the last six months temperatures have fallen in six of them and the other two were only small increases.
    Global CO2 continues to rise so where is the connection?
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/…/UAH_LT_1979_thru_April_2018_v…

    Comment
    Robert Looking at a small bump in a graph that clearly shows an upwards trend is cherry picking. Happy to take a bet regarding temperatures over the next 5 years. My bet is that they will be hotter than the current reading despite the ups and downs.

    Don A Your observations are correct but….
    It has been well established that the underlying base increase in global temperature over millennium has been 0.07 degree C per decade.
    “The 0.07°C per decade increase has been observed for the entire period of recorded observations (1880-2015).”
    Examining the graph it can be seen that in 1979 the temperature variation was about -0.1 and in 2018 is about 0.2 by eyeballing a straight line through the ups and downs (not rigorous maths but good enough). This is an increase of 0.3 degrees over 4 decades.
    Calculating the increase per decade we get 0.3 / 4 = 0.075 which is pretty much in line with the long term increase.
    Although the CO2 concentration has been steadily increasing the temperatures shown here do not show any increase, above the background increase, that can be attributed to CO2.
    Hysterical statements that “for the fifth time since 2000 a new temperature record was set”, can be considered true due to natural variations about the underlying temperature increase, but that is to be expected, and cannot be attributed to man-made pollution by CO2.
    It also includes two El Nino events that are nothing to do with Global Warming.
    It can be seen the since the last El Nino in 2016 the Global Temperature has dropped from 0.85 to 0.2 and seems to be continuing to fall.
    Your bet would be interesting if it considered increases above the base rate. Indications by eminent solar scientists is that we are in for a cooling period but any forecast either way is usually proven wrong. We will see if you are correct.

    David It must be really good to only extract the information that supports your argument and ignore all else. You would be a natural for Trump’s administration.

    Don A David See reply above. Note that personal attacks do not add anything to the discussion but I am used to that from warmists.

    David But look at your own frigging graph. If it were the stock market you’d bet on a continuing rise! Look at 2010 to 2011 a severe drop but overall just a bump in the continuing rise. I don’t know Don you can hold on to your oil company theories but global warming is a fact and no amount of data manipulation will change that! Oh and by the way, labeing people who disagree with you as “warmists” is exactly a Trump like startegy.

    Don A David, David, David, Oh Dear, did you not understand the clear lesson that there has been global warming for millennia, and of course the graph is showing an increasing tendency due to that.
    If you remove the measured 0.07 degree C per decade long term average increase you will see that there has been no appreciable temperature increase over the period of the graph, and of course there will be random annual variations.
    If you have difficulty with that then let’s discuss it calmly and rationally and try not to involve your nemesis Trump. This is not a religion, it is just maths and science, and open for discussion. An understanding of the El Nino effect might help.
    So deniers and skeptics is OK but Warmist is not? Sorry what would you like to be called?
    David Menis Ok now try the condescending approach! Well think you admitted somewhere in there again that global warming is happening whatever the cause. There are and always will be both random periodic variations in the earth temperature and weather patterns. What I always react to is that you only post stuff that suggests that the current warming trend is a hoax and I have never seen a post from you that has any kind of open question. You do not have an open mind on this issue. The ocean are melting, major ocean currents are changing. new records are being set for seasonal temperatures, mostly high temperatures and you would like the world to ignore this and burn more coal. By the way on what to call me…Dave is fine!
    Don Amoore Dave – I have not said that global warming is a hoax, as I clearly showed it is, and it has been occurring for ages past.
    Yes the world is warming. Gottit?
    I have not been convinced that Gore’s and others assertion that CO2 causes ALL the warming and that it will be catastrophic and dangerous, I am convinced that it and the “hockey stick” is a Hoax.
    So my open question is this.
    Can it be shown that CO2 is the major cause of global warming and is dangerous or is it just a small and diminishing warming effect that can barely be seen in the historical data?
    The war against the “dangerous” use of fossil fuels would be seen as a hoax if CAGWers could examine the unadjusted historical measurements, and respect that CO2 is a plant food, the basis of all life, is beneficial and an almost unnoticeable greenhouse gas.
    This “war” has resulted in catastrophic economic harm to left leaning first world countries. Did you know that the rest of the world is building 1600 HELE coal power stations? Obviously THEY are not bothered by the CAGW beliefs.
    SO! CO2 is not the danger – discuss.
    “The ocean are melting, major ocean currents are changing. new records are being set for seasonal temperatures, mostly high temperatures” What I always react to is that you only post stuff that suggests …..what YOU want to believe. All of this is contentious but we leave that aside for now.

    David Menis Well actually with regard to the “hockey stick” one of your own references had some swedish guy doing Fourier analysis on the global temperatures. it showed the component periodic fluctuations coming in phase creating a faster increase in global temperatures. This independent of any influence by us people. If my memory holds up his analysis predicted it turning around in 2035. Wonderful if it turns out to be true. The issue is that in my pinko lefty liberal way I like the idea that almost all the countries in the UN agreed that fossil fuel reduction,and more sustainable forms of generating useful energy was an issue worth spending money on. Progress it may be argued is what got us into this mess, the world is infested with people.But the only way forward is with new technology and the money do drive it. (My belief)

    Don A I am pleased to hear that you did at least look briefly at Carl Otto-Weis’s video but as you seem to have gotten the wrong end of the stick somehow I am sending you the site again so you might have another, more careful, look.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAELGs1kKsQ
    Basically he shows that all the temperature variation can be attributed to solar cycles, and that NO SIGNIFICANT CO2 COMPONENT can be identified. He predicts cooling from now to 2035 then rising again.
    OK enough of that.
    You said ,….. “Almost all the countries in the UN agreed that fossil fuel reduction, and more sustainable forms of generating useful energy was an issue worth spending…”
    The reason that they selected fossil fuel as the culprit was due to the Gore/Mann/IPCC addiction to the theory that CO2 as a GHG was causing all the warming ( concurrence does not prove causation!).
    Billions of dollars have been spent on research to “prove” this theory, and, based on the extreme temperature increase predictions, what will happen to us and the world because this is true.
    Getting back to my question “Can it be shown that CO2 is the major cause of global warming and is dangerous, or is it just a small and diminishing warming effect that can barely be seen in the historical data?”
    You have not addressed this at all, and not to my surprise. To discuss this an understanding of the absorption spectrum of three molecule compounds, specifically H2O and CO2, the IR radiation spectrum of a heated planet, the misunderstood effect of clouds and their cause, the magnitude of the CO2 climate sensitivity figure, among many other things.
    ( The most general measure of this response is the climate sensitivity. The climate sensitivity is often defined as the equilibrium global-mean surface warming that would occur if carbon dioxide concentrations were doubled. The uncertainty range used by the IPCC in its 1990 through 1996 assessments is 1.5—4.5 °C per CO2 doubling. This large range in climate sensitivity reflects uncertainty about feedbacks within the climate system.).
    Note: Current calculation put it less than one, so by the time CO2 reaches 800 ppm sometime next century the temperature will have increased by one degree.
    Read http://notrickszone.com/2017/10/16/recent-co2-climate-sensitivity-estimates-continue-trending-towards-zero/#sthash.F1ywT1e8.dpbs
    You said “Progress it may be argued is what got us into this mess, the world is infested with people. But the only way forward is with new technology and the money do drive it. (My belief)”
    Despite the fact that science has nothing to do with belief and consensus I am in agreement that the planet is being damaged by too many people, but it is more due to all their cities and concrete and plastic and sewage that has that effect, not just CO2 from burning fossil fuels.
    We need cheap plentiful electric power to be supplied, not only to counties like Canada and Australia to drive their economies, but also to all those third (and fourth) world countries and people that are living in abject poverty, burning scarce wood and animal dung to survive and dying of lung disease and ignorance in the dark due to lack of power.
    So I also agree that the way forward is with new technology, and that is what HELE coal power provides. Heavily subsidised by fossil fuel generators intermittent and diffuse sources of power like wind and solar that have to be fully backed up by fossil fuel sources, that have to sit around on standby waiting to be needed, is not a sensible approach. Just build the coal stations, as CO2 is NOT a significant problem.
    If you have empirical data and rigorous explanations why it IS the problem I await you reply.

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      TdeF

      Don, when I first looked at this idea, the question which struck me was not whether CO2 heated the planet. Or in fact whether heating or CO2 were good for the planet and humans in particular. I cannot see any argument against increased CO2 frankly.

      No, the underlying argument is that fossil fuel is the reason for the steady 50% increase in CO2 in 1900.
      If this is not true, it is all massive waste. Agreed?

      Sadly many CO2 Global Warming sceptics readily admit this by statement or implication. It is not true.

      You can easily tell new CO2 from old fossil CO2. There happens to be a radioactive marker. Without explaining Radio Carbon dating, new CO2 has a % of C14. Old CO2 does none. So by measuring C14 levels you can prove accurately beyond a shadow of a doubt that fossil fuel CO2 is less than 5% of all aerial CO2. QED.

      However to go on, the core scare in the 1980s was that +0.5C in 10 years meant a disastrous +5C in 100 years, whether we caused it or not. It has turned out that the change in the last 20 years is under 0.1C and the seas have not risen in the last hundred years, as any child can see. As for somehow having more cyclones, the reverse is true. No, we are all paying for $1.5Trillion a year in elephant prevention. If only that money was spent on Fusion research!

      Then we would never have any lack of power and we humans could survive the next ice age, even grow food in winter, do amazing things. What do we have? Half a million useless giant windmills.

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        Hanrahan

        No, we are all paying for $1.5Trillion a year in elephant prevention.

        Is that a reference to the Goon Show? If so you are showing your age. :)

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          TdeF

          Perhaps a fascination by Spike Milligan with elephants? One great quote was “education isn’t everything. It isn’t an elephant”. Perhaps being born in India had an effect?

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          • #
            Hanrahan

            The passage I remember was a character in a railway carriage tearing up pieces of paper and tossing them out the window.
            “What are you doing that for?”
            “To scare away the elephants.”
            “There are no elephants this side of the Atlantic.”
            “Effective, isn’t it.”
            A little later the narrator said “[The character] has been trampled by a soaking wet elephant.”

            I may have heard that in the ’50s and have never forgotten it. Having insurance cos putting up premiums for the effects of global warming always reminds me of it.

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            • #
              TdeF

              Yes, elephant repellent was a common example of something which is proven only by the extremely common absence of elephants.
              This insanity is a lot like carbon taxes or the emperor’s new clothes.

              You could even argue facetiously that world’s massive spending on windmills and solar panels has prevented the temperature rise. The fact that it has had zero effect on CO2 rise is just ignored. The usual suspects have to keep our eyes glued every day on the temperature. Don’t take any notice of that pesky CO2 behind the Green curtain (Wizard of Oz) which is utterly unaffected by the tens of trillions spent to stop its growth.

              In fact our massive worldwide attempt to affect (up or down) CO2 growth are a complete waste of (our) money. That is never to be mentioned by the IPCC or the UN or the CSIRO or NASA or NOAA or the Royal Society. Far too obvious.

              What I want to know is why we Australians have to pay so much to lower our CO2? Oh, yes. The Paris Accord. No logic, science or facts then? No evidence that in 30 years, no one has affected world CO2, up or down? Shtum. The Chinese watch. (Month Python)

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      • #
        Chad

        You can easily tell new CO2 from old fossil CO2. There happens to be a radioactive marker. Without explaining Radio Carbon dating, new CO2 has a % of C14. Old CO2 does none. So by measuring C14 levels you can prove accurately beyond a shadow of a doubt that fossil fuel CO2 is less than 5% of all aerial CO2. QED.

        Tdf….do you have a reference for a more detailed explanation of this calculation?
        I have seen several versions , including the C13/C12 ratio calculation, but none are very conclusive …perhaps deliberatelly ?

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          TdeF

          Chad, C13 has nothing to do with it, a very debatable distraction.

          This is some Green posturing about plant differential uptake and tries to bury the real hard science of C14.
          99% of Carbon is C12. 1% is C13. Both stable isotopes.

          C14 is radioactive, created continuously by relatively constant cosmic rays and decays continually, half every 5400 years. So it is in equlibrium. This is the basis of radio carbon dating which archeologists use. The discovery of Radio Carbon dating by Dr Suess, a founder of the university of San Diego in the 1950s, was a critical point in archeology. Of course we can now accurately date known objects with dates, even before Christ, so the C14 level can be calibrated and we can accurately date unknown objects.

          Dr. Suess’s second big discovery was that despite two world wars, there was precious very fossil fuel CO2 in the air. The Green protaganists of CO2 driven global warming have to bury this, so even the Wikipedia entry is corrupted with talk of C13 being the ‘Suess effect’.

          He proved conclusively that there is almost no fossil fuel CO2 in the air in the 1950s. Later atmospheric bomb testing in 1965 doubled C14, a perfect test as the decay curve proves conclusively that the half life of C14 in the air is 14 years. As C14 cannot be destroyed, it has gone into the oceans. There is nowhere else. The decay is a perfect curve, not disturbed by the biosphere as in the Bern diagram.

          The IPCC claim that CO2 stays in the air for 80 years, even thousands of years or forever is utterly wrong. They even use the 80 year figure to rate the half life of other gases. So they are all wrong. So you can date the air. It is not old enough to come from fossil fuel. That should be the end of it.

          This would be a giant scandal except that so many scientists are specialists, mathematicians, astronomers, microbiologists, geologists, physicists, engineers. Few know this low level science, so they debate CO2 and its effects. The other 99% of people do not understand it. The tragedy is that some scientists work where they can say nothing or see a profitable career path in getting on the bandwagon, presumably knowing full well that it is all non scientific nonsense, but mathematics does not make you rich. I cannot understand how 350 full time professional CSIRO scientists worked for years on “Climate Change” and said nothing. I cannot understand how they push “Ocean Acidification” when the oceans are all alkali and besides are already stuffed with 98% of all free CO2.

          This scam should be collapsing with America out of it. Why Australians are being punished is beyond my comprehension. Where is the justice in the massive carbon tax? Why are we all being made to suffer the world’s highest electricity prices? Why are all our factories being forced to shut, even being paid to shut on hot days? Why are we slaves to non science? When can we have a PM who is not a banker or Unionist?

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            Graeme No.3

            TdeF:

            C14 is affected by the level of solar radiation so the C14 ageing check is subject to known solar variations to make it more accurate.

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              TdeF

              Yes, of course. Variations in cosmic rays will vary the amount of C14 in the atmosphere. However the long half life of 5400 years mean that cycles over short periods like 11 years or 200 years (de Vries) have to be averaged over the much longer period, reducing the effect of variation dramatically. C14 dating is surprisingly accurate. Of course you also have very accurately dated objects going back 2,000 years as calibration references, even written documents with dates. You get stone too with known dates but accompanied by animal remains which can be dated.

              I would expect that in the 60 years since it’s discovery, the technique has been well defined. In fact you could mine the adjustments in reverse to see cycles in solar and cosmic activity!

              Once you get over 20,000 years it becomes more inaccurate as the amount of C14 in a given sample is reduced by 1/2^4 or 1/16th and at 100,000 years it is 1/2^20 or 1/2000th.

              The core idea is that if there is 50% growth in CO2 from fossil fuel, the C14 level should be 2/3 of the near constant level for the last 2 millenia. It isn’t. That should be the end of Man Made Global Warming, the C14 fingerprint proves it.

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                TdeF

                Sorry, that it’s should have been its. Possessive pronoun, does not need the apostrophe. It’s should be only for the contraction of it is.

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                Graeme No.3

                TdeF:

                You may have seen this. Just the abstract needed although the graphs look interesting.
                http://www.pnas.org/content/109/16/5967

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              • #
                Chad

                The core idea is that if there is 50% growth in CO2 from fossil fuel, the C14 level should be 2/3 of the near constant level for the last 2 millenia. It isn’t. That should be the end of Man Made Global Warming, the C14 fingerprint proves it.

                Sorry Tdf, still trying to clarify this in my tired old brain..
                Isnt C14 just a “trace” element with < 1 billionth of a % in the atmosphere , way less than 1 ppm? …99% of Co2 in the air is C12 Isnt it. ?
                So is someone really saying they can accurately measure a fractional change in C14 when the normal level is only a fraction of 1ppm ?
                Or have i missed something (most likely !)

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                Gee Aye

                that sort of thing is easily done

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                Chad

                OK GA,…
                So where do i find the data for airborne C14 ?

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          • #

            As C14 cannot be destroyed, it has gone into the oceans. There is nowhere else.

            Just what does C14 decay into to become more stable? :-)

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              Phantor 48

              Just what does C14 decay into to become more stable?

              C14 emits a beta particle and turns back into stable N14 — and there’s already a lot of that in the atmosphere (99.64% of atmospheric nitrogen)!!

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              • #

                C14 emits a beta particle and turns back into stable N14 — and there’s already a lot of that in the atmosphere (99.64% of atmospheric nitrogen)!!

                OK so the coal that is 5400 yr since plant life has only 1/2 the ratio of C14/C12; however more N14 keeping mass constant! Is this some form of Nitro-Coal that forms NOx as a bi-product? OH DEAR call in the EPA!! :-) All the best!-will-

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      • #
        Don A

        TDef – thanks for that mate, I will be able to use it. Can I find a site for this

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        You can easily tell new CO2 from old fossil CO2. There happens to be a radioactive marker. Without explaining Radio Carbon dating, new CO2 has a % of C14. Old CO2 does none. So by measuring C14 levels you can prove accurately beyond a shadow of a doubt that fossil fuel CO2 is less than 5% of all aerial CO2. QED.

        Never ever necessarily correct

        C14 is radioactive, created continuously by relatively constant cosmic rays and decays continually, half every 5400 years. So it is in equlibrium.

        Can you even define what you claim of relatively constant cosmic rays? JUST WHAT IS YOUR RAY?? Why is such constant rather than fantasy? Sol our (local primary) is a variable star with no known (reproducible)function for such variability; spots and all. Sol has measurable broadband EMR ‘radiance’ equivalent to some conceptual black-body; with undefined ‘temperature’ 6000K. OTOH we observe periodic Coronal Mass Ejections of unmeasurable charged and neutral particles. Is this your ‘relatively constant cosmic rays’?
        BTW I agree that atmospheric CO2 ppmv has nothing to do with Earth’s undefined local or (imaginary) global temperatures! :-)
        All the best!-will-

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      Peter C

      My question is have I made any stupid mistakes and am I winning?

      You are definitely winning Don A, since you made the last comment on the thread!

      If you have empirical data and rigorous explanations why it IS the problem

      The Chief Scientist of Austalia (Prof Alan Finkel) attempted to answer this question recently at an Australian Senate review.

      He said:
      1. “We have been burning fossil fuels at a rapid rate”
      2. “The natural systems can’t absorb that”
      3. So there is a clear hypothesis and there is clear evidence”
      4. “The thing that I find most compelling, senator, is when you have a hypothesis and there is clear evidence”
      5. So the CO2 in the atmosphere is going up. Does CO2 creat warming?
      6. ” The theory goes back to 1896…. He (Arrenhuis) identified for basic physical reasons CO2 will trap heat…”
      7. “You have got the CO2, You have got the physics that CO2 will trap heat”
      8. “Do you have the evidence? Yes the temperature is going up and up! You have got the theory and the evidence.”
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4IPMKhlyQI

      That seems to be the whole argument in a nutshell.

      I have asked the Office of the chief Scientist for further particulars as promised to ex senator Malcolm Roberts but I have received no reply.

      The weakness of of all this is:
      Humans are burning Fossil fuel and the CO2 level is going up;
      1. CO2 rise only measured since approx 1980 and
      2. Correlation is not causation.
      3. The only evidence that the natural enviironment cannot adsorb human emmission of CO2 is that the CO2 levels are going up. That ignores the possibilty that rising temperature might cause release of CO2 (from the oveans)

      Temperature is going up and up:
      1. Correlation between CO2 rise and increased global temperature is weak at best. No correlation means no causation.
      2. Temperature record is not robust.
      3. Temperature records have been adjusted by meteorological organisations for unaccountable reason but the adjustments have been mostly upward, ie data adjustment to fit the theory.

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        Dave in the States

        Mr. Finkel’s arguments are deceptive and misleading. First, they are nothing more anecdotal at best, but he presents them as providing proof. Shame on him. Very sloppy science or a deliberate deception.

        Secondly, they are not quantified. The probable innumerate hearer of this tripe is encouraged to imagine all sorts values for co2 emissions, temperature change, and so forth. This deception is made obvious by the language he uses, such as ” burning fossil fuels at a rapid rate”, and “natural systems can’t absorb that.” How much is “that” and what is a “rapid rate” as compared to what? The numbers and the context for such numbers are not given. The hearer is not informed that human co2 emissions -all of them- only amount to less than 4% of the co2 comes and goes into and out of the atmosphere every year. And of that co2 is only a trace gas in the atmosphere.

        Thirdly, Finkel does not provide a proper paleo climate history to put his claims in context historically. The hearer is left with the impression that pre-industrial climates were more or less stable, and what we are seeing now is unprecedented. This is just a damned lie. Lying by omission. Or is he that ignorant of such facts?

        Fourthly, he offers up an implied hypothesis that is not even the hypothesis put forth by the IPCC! The inadequate hypothesis he presents has the advantage of being simple and easy for anecdotal correlations to be made by the scientific illiterate. He is either scientifically illiterate himself, delusional, or practicing deliberate deception. Perhaps a combination of all.

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        Roy Hogue

        A clear hypothesis? So what? A hypothesis is not evidence, neither is it proof of anything except probably ignorance or deceptive intent. I don’t know which but I would guess it’s ignorance with a little, “I’m superior to you dumb dolts so you better believe me.”

        We have seen this for years, far too many years. I used to ask the trolls who made claims that CO2 was warming the planet for their evidence showing that CO2 could cause warming and every time they failed to answer. All I got back was silence, yet that is the critical question. And correct understanding of CO2′s effect says it has so little ability to warm the planet that it’s a joke to talk about it.

        Water vapor and clouds keep this planet a habitable place. Otherwise deep freeze at night and burn up in daylight. I think presence of an atmosphere without water would make no difference from having no atmosphere at all or a very small difference. Life couldn’t be here under the temperatures we would record without water. And of course there’s another need for water. Living things are mostly water.

        The sun is the major and certainly dominant influence on temperature. And temperature differences cause all sorts of things called weather and over thousands of years, climate.

        Am I wrong about this?

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          Am I wrong about this?

          A bit! Most atmospheric heat transfer is via convection. Atmospheric EMR emissive gas only raise the effective emission to space to a higher altitude. CO2 above 160ppmv emits from the tropopause at narrow band 14 microns; none from the surface! :-)

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      PeterS

      Focusing on one aspect on climate change, namely CO2 is always a mistake on both sides of the argument. There are so many other factors that must be taken into consideration to have any hope of approaching the truth let alone reaching it. The point is the warmist models have been discredited beyond any doubt by now. Most won’t admit it but they will have to eventually. I would focus on that fact. No one with any credibility can reject the evidence that global temperatures despite rising CO2 have failed to meet expectations. If that doesn’t prove that CO2 is not the main driving force behind climate change then nothing can. So what is the main driving force? The sun of course.

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      RickWill

      I have recently been having a discussion with a Canadian friend about Global warming, as detailed exhaustively below. My question is have I made any stupid mistakes and am I winning?

      With respect to your two part question. Yes – you are arguing religion with a religious zealot. It is not worth the effort. No – You can never win an argument with a zealot on their religion.

      If you care enough and he is open to learning then send him a copy of Marc Morano’s Climate Change.

      With regard to the issue of reducing fossil fuel consumption, Germany is providing a reasonably solid example of the inability of run-whenever-you-like generators to reduce CO2. They are stuck at about 14% electricity market share from wind and solar and their CO2 output is not falling. The simple fact is that wind and solar cannot generate enough energy over their operating life to enable their replacement. Again the reasons for this take some thinking about because there is a lot of propaganda from those making money from the illusion. I find this paper compelling in its detail:
      http://www.hanswernersinn.de/dcs/2017%20Buffering%20Volatility%20EER%2099%202017.pdf
      But it requires the brain to be in gear to get through it.

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  • #

    I wonder if anyone could help me out there.

    I’m starting a new Series where I will detail the average daily electrical power totals and percentages (of the total) for total consumption, all fossil fuels, coal fired power, hydro power, wind power, solar power and rooftop solar power.

    To achieve this I’ll be using the data available at the Aner.oid site, and taken from the images for each of those totals.

    I would like to use the images also to better explain it, and show I’m not fudging, hey, not that I ever would.

    To that end, I want to email the site owner Andrew Miskelly and ask him directly, other than through a second site. I have emailed him on earlier occasions, years ago, but since a number of computer rebuilds, I have lost that old email address, and my guess is it would have changed.

    If anyone can help me with his email address I would be grateful.

    Do NOT give it out here as a reply to this comment, but if you could email it to Joanne and she might thtn forward it on to me.

    Thanks.

    Tony.

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      Robber

      Tony, his website shows his Twitter address so you could reach him there. https://twitter.com/andrewmiskelly

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      Yonniestone

      Tony I found his twitter account https://twitter.com/andrewmiskelly and probably like me your not on twitter so perhaps someone here who is can pass on your message.

      The Aneroid Energy site is really interesting.

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        Thanks to both of you. I followed his link to that twitter account, and I’m not on twitter, and in my case, I’m afraid that there are not enough hours in the day for me to ‘do’ any of those social media sites, the four I can think of at the moment.

        Either way, I thought it would be far more courteous to ask him directly via email if I could use his images for my Posts.

        As to that Aneroid site, I have been using it now for almost all of the ten years plus I have been doing this. It is a truly amazing resource.

        Just as a teaser, look at the image at this link, and this is for power consumption from yesterday, and keep in mind that this is for the Saturday, and the two weekend days are the lowest power consumption days of the week.

        The black line at the top shows the total power generation, and by extrapolation, the total power consumption.

        The blue line directly under that shows all power generation from fossil fuels, coal fired power and natural gas fired power. (the total just for coal fired power alone is not shown here, but it is a tiny bit lower than this blue line and follows closely (almost exactly) the shape of the blue Load Curve)

        Now, go close to the bottom of the graph. The orange line shows all hydro power.

        The purple line shows all wind power.

        The red line, look really close now, is solar power, the slightest of tiny humps around midday.

        Rooftop solar power is not shown here, but that also is just a smallish hump around midday as well.

        Incidentally, and this is a little strange. I was doing my daily Base Load numbers this morning and I noticed that there was no difference between coal fired power and all fossil fuelled power for NSW for the last 24 hours. So, I checked more closely. NOT ONE natural gas fired plant has been on line delivering power in NSW over the last 24 hours. Coal fired power has supplied virtually all consumption in NSW. There has been around 250MW or so of wind averaged across 24 hours and that’s around 3% of the total power being consumed in that State. The rest has come from NSW coal fired plants (minus two Units off line) and an import of an average 1500MW from both Victoria (coal fired power) and Queensland. (also coal fired power) Coal fired power, you know, what’s keeping Australia in operation!

        Tony.

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      Aussieute

      Go here and search Tony

      https://dig.whois.com.au/whois

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    Chad

    You are learning, as many of us also have, that debating the science of CO2, vs temperature etc is like discussing religeon with a fanatical cult !
    It is pointless wast of time, they are indoctrinated with the GHGas theory and doomsday outcome.
    Save you energy for some more productive passtime.

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      PeterS

      True but it’s so easy and simple to answer the question of CO2′s impact on global warming. Despite the continuing rise of CO2 the expected temperature rises as per the computer models failed to materialise. The evidence for this is clear and indisputable. The conclusion is therefore that the current rate of increase of CO2 has no significant impact on global temperatures. If the alarmists ignore that evidence then yes just walk away. Of course if CO2 levels increased from 0.04% to say 1% then that might be a different story but we are not talking about anything like that sort of increase, not even in a thousand years.

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    Yonniestone

    For the Mod Squad: THE WEEK IN PICTURES: CULTURAL APPROPRIATION EDITION

    My pick the ‘We’re glad your home’ dogs.

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    Robber

    On a fairly regular basis, AEMO declares that they have intervened in the SA market.
    For example:
    Market Notice 62712
    AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.
    Direction (No 12) – South Australia Region – 05/05/2018
    In accordance with section 116 of the National Electricity Law AEMO has issued a direction to a participant in the South Australia region.
    The direction was necessary to maintain the power system in a secure operating state.
    The direction was issued at 1525 hrs 04/05/2018, with effect from 0100 hrs 05/05/2018.
    The direction is expected to stay in place until 0100 hrs 08/05/2018. Later updated with Directions 13 & 14.

    What they don’t state is the who, what and why of the intervention.
    I discovered that they do publish a later assessment with details, but they are running quite a few months behind: Current: All Intervention Events for which a report is being prepared.
    Direction to SA generator between 05 and 06 November 2017
    Direction to SA generator between 04 and 05 November 2017
    Directions to SA generators between 27 and 30 October 2017
    Directions to SA generators between 09 and 11 October 2017
    Presumably summer has been a very hectic time for interventions, so AEMO has quite a backlog of reports to prepare and publish.
    The last report published I could find is for Oct 7-8, 2017.
    https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Market_Notices_and_Events/Market_Event_Reports/2017/NEM-Event—Directions-to-South-Australia-Generator—07-and-08-October-2017.pdf
    AEMO’s direction instruction in this case was to AGL’s Torrens Island B Unit 2 to remain synchronised and follow dispatch targets. At 1423 hrs on 7 October 2017, AGL SA Generation Pty Ltd submitted a rebid de-committing Torrens Island B unit 2 capacity with effect from 1500 hrs. As a result, AEMO determined that there would be insufficient online synchronous generating units available to meet system strength requirements from 1500 hrs on 7 October 2017.
    AGL SA Generation Pty Ltd (Torrens Island B unit 2) direction was cancelled at 1700 hrs on 8 October 2017, after Torrens Island B2 was bid available. Intervention constraints were revoked for Torrens Island B unit 2.
    The direction for Torrens Island B unit 2 to remain synchronised and follow dispatch targets resulted in approximately 1,471 megawatt hours (MWh) of generation being added to the market.
    Of note is that while these directions displaced market-based generation in South Australia, they also decreased imports into South Australia. The decreased imports, coupled with an impact on network constraints, resulted in displacement of some generation in both Victoria and New South Wales.

    According to Anero.id, on Oct 7-8 (Sat/Sun) the wind was blowing strongly in SA, delivering about 1100 MW, but by Sunday that had dropped to 100 MW. Presumably with the wind delivering lots of MW, and low weekend demand in SA, AGL decided they could remove Torrens Island B from the grid. On the Sat, gas was delivering about 450 MW, presumably about the minimum to maintain a stable grid. Anero.id shows Torrens B2 shutdown Wed-Sat prior to the intervention, but then starting to deliver about 60 MW.

    It will be interesting to see just how many AEMO interventions there have been in the SA market throughout summer. It does seem to be a regular occurrence, possibly when wind is high and demand low.

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      robert rosicka

      That’s the problem they have to deal with in SA Robber , too much wind that shuts down the wind farms too little and then oversupply when things are working .

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      C. Paul Barreira

      The technocracy at work. And the cost in bureaucrat-hours is what?

      They [AEMO] they do publish a later assessment with details, but they are running quite a few months behind.

      It reminds one of the singularly tardy way in which government outfits pay their bills. So much for “the age of information”.

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    “Judge Ellis, and DJT called it; an illegal witch hunt, politically motivated abuse of power. And, bycalling their bluff, by patiently letting it play out, it is now going to be exposed for all to see….Rosie is blackhat, and I am still confident of Sessions.”

    Rosie is bureaucrat, which is far worse than any blackhat!, I am confident that P45, Sessions, and Wray, are trying to retain some sort of “Lawfulness under the US Constitution”! The Marxist Global Banksters\COC now would PREFER US Civil War; to relinquishing what they have gained over US citizens!
    https://fas.org/sgp/jud/sterling/index.html
    No wonder that the Marxist Global Banksters\COC have conscripted the MSM and the US educational system unto their evil intent!

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    el gordo

    Cory Bernardi on Gonski 2

    ‘Rather than tackle this decline in standards through a return to the foundations of education and some rigorous student/teacher accountability, it is now proposed to allow students to work at their own pace lest the feelings of the little darlings be hurt by grading them against their peers.

    ‘No more giddy-up from an inspiring teacher or discipline for an unruly student, each child can choose their own educational adventure. Apparently this will allow teachers to focus on the personal needs of every student.’

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      yarpos

      in line with the story over the weekend about removing analogue clocks from UK schools, so the precious arent confused by the idea that there is more than one way to represent time.

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        in line with the story over the weekend about removing analogue clocks from UK schools, so the precious arent confused by the idea that there is more than one way to represent time.

        Clocks represent cycles per hour; as ‘frequency’ is cycles per second. The past is in the linear elapsed number time intervals, since whenever! The future must remain (F) cycles per new interval. The past (-1/F) has unlimited noise amplitude. The future is much better behaved (Boltzmann’s (k) noise power per unit bandwidth)! Why is this so hard to understand?
        All the best!-will-

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          Sceptical Sam

          Clocks represent cycles per hour; as ‘frequency’ is cycles per second. The past is in the linear elapsed number time intervals, since whenever! The future must remain (F) cycles per new interval. The past (-1/F) has unlimited noise amplitude. The future is much better behaved (Boltzmann’s (k) noise power per unit bandwidth)! Why is this so hard to understand?

          Yep. I’ve never understood why people can’t understand that, Will.

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            Yep. I’ve never understood why people can’t understand that, Will.

            Perhaps GOD decided that Boltzmann was getting a bit to smart; and created post modern ‘science’ to prevent Earthlings from escaping this Earth asylum and contaminating the rest of ‘his’ universe! :-)
            All the best!-will-

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            BTW Earthlings Blowing dis Earth unto another asteroid belt via super grande tsar bomba; is Gods live and learn. Not gonna try dat again! Usuns are born as some mere ‘image’ of GOD :-)

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        Annie

        Unbelievable isn’t it? Poor precious snowflakes, or their teachers are anyway. It’s as stupid as dumbing down the language so that it loses all poetry and changing the meanings of words. I’d better stop there and not further raise the old BP!

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          I’d better stop there and not further raise the old BP!

          Anne, I thought this was fun! OTOH OLD being cold, wet, holding distal barrel ‘tween toes; to properly dispatch enemy varmints is no fun at all!

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          Annie

          I’d be downright ashamed if my children and grandchildren didn’t know how to tell the time from an analogue clock.
          Even the BBC had a part of ‘Playschool’ telling the time using an analogue clock! My! I wonder if they’ve given that up?

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            robert rosicka

            You’d be amazed at the amount of year 10+ kids that don’t know which way clockwise is .

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              robert rosicka May06,18:20:23

              You’d be amazed at the amount of year 10+ kids that don’t know which way clockwise is .

              You would be amazed at the number of government funded ‘professors’ that have no clue as to ‘charality’ (handedness) vs more complex parity. Turn a right handed glove inside out, thus becomes left handed glove! (chirality). OTOH turn right handed men’s briefs inside out then ‘properly’ back on; such remains right handed (parity)! Clever garment fabricators learned such long ago! Learned governmental ‘professors’ still have not a clue! :-)
              All the best!-will-

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                Graeme No.3

                Will Janoschka:

                Great insult to bamboozle Warmists – “you can’t put your briefs on the right way”.
                As most of them have “their knickers in a twist” about coming warming it will cause some confusion.

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              TedM

              “You’d be amazed at the amount of year 10+ kids that don’t know which way clockwise is .”
              Yes Robert, understanding that descriptor alone should be sufficient to keep analogue time pieces.

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            Hanrahan

            It would be different if the time NOT spent learning how to tell the time was used productively elsewhere. Somehow I doubt it.

            Thinking about it now, learning how to tell time on an analog clock is practical elementary math, a stage students must go through, more practical than “Two men buy six ducks each ……….”

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              Russ Wood

              I remember having a (mini-computer) program called “ApproxTime” that, reading the computers digital clock, would tell you “It’s nearly a quarter past ten”… Odd that it would take quite a lot of code to do what most people over 40 can almost do in their sleep!

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      Kinky Keith

      And the band played Waltzing Matilda.

      No self respecting, educated person would be prepared to be subjected to the abuse doled out to them by politicians.

      And the indiscipline of the little darlings, would cause any politician to shrivel up and resign after a day of teaching in Australian schools.

      KK

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        C. Paul Barreira

        South Australia, as you know, KK, is essentially a suicide cult. Oz generally seems determined to follow suit. So-called “education”, at all levels is a part of that. In SA the wish of the elites—that is, those who over the past half-century and counting have wrecked the place—was two-fold. First, to destroy all vestiges of the British Enlightenment. And secondly, if only latterly, to become some sort of dependency of China, without quite reducing themselves to colonial status. The first is complete and likely irreversible, education, for instance, is self-replicating. The second is well under way and, on the face of it, also irreversible.

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    pat

    5 May: ClimateChangeNews: Bonn morning brief: The wisdom of Talanoa
    By Megan Darby, Karl Mathiesen and Soila Apparicio
    Breaking the standoff
    The practical details for Sunday’s Talanoa Dialogue are set, aside from some indecision about whether to webcast sessions (they should). But what will participants make of the storytelling brief?
    One negotiator for a small island state was a convert to the concept, telling CHN it could help delegates to take a break from the adversarial mindset of formal talks…

    Gebru Jember Endalew, chair of the least developed countries bloc, started the talks saying that was essential to keep the safer 1.5C global warming limit within reach.
    So far, that looks doubtful. The majority of big emitters who pegged their national plans to 2030 see their existing targets as plenty ambitious.
    Seven EU member states say they want the bloc to up its game, but they have 20 more to convince…

    Talanoa snub
    We’ve quoted Poland’s special envoy on climate change Tomasz Chruszczow a lot during the past week. (Partly because he eschews diplomatic language and actually says what he, and his government, are thinking. Oh, if only there were more like him). On Thursday, he continued to signal that Poland will be pushing its own agenda at Cop24 in Katowice when he downplayed the importance of the Talanoa Dialogue – the centrepiece initiative of Poland’s presidential predecessor Fiji…
    In another small but significant snub to the Fijians, the Cop24 website drops the island nation’s ‘talanoa’ branding of the scheme, referring to it by its earlier name – facilitative dialogue…

    More discussions couldn’t come Suva
    The Suva Expert Dialogue came to a close on Thursday, after two days of discussions on how the international community can better support developing countries deal with the problems of climate change, otherwise known as loss and damage.
    Talks focused on the financial support needed. By one estimate, the annual un-avoided damages of climate change will cost $50bn by 2020, growing to $300bn in 2030.
    But delegates noticed Germany was the only developed economy to pipe up about what could be done to help…

    Zut alors
    Outside the conference, France continued its diplomatic offensive against the US Trump administration’s revisionism over international agreements – including the Paris climate and Iran nuclear deals.
    “When a country signs an agreement, this commitment doesn’t depend on the variable nature of its government. Otherwise, foreign policies would become impossible,” tweeted Gérard Araud, the French Ambassador to the US, this week…

    ***Take it easy, mate
    Perhaps with the packed weekend in mind, an Australian submission to reduce the frequency of major climate meetings (Cops) was put forward on Friday. It argued the big end of year talks place financial and logistical strain on the UN secretariat and parties.
    Instead, three Cops should happen on a five year cycle, to align with key moments in the Paris Agreement process. Meanwhile negotiators would keep meeting every six months in subsidiary body meetings – like the one going on it Bonn right now.
    One negotiator we spoke to called the idea “dumb”. For one thing, decisions from the subsidiary bodies need ministerial approval to progress. This would lead to a pile up. Second, the UN climate convention is much more than just the Paris Agreement. “It makes no sense,” said the source, “to align everything to the PA alone”.
    Discussion of the proposal has been put off until May 2019.

    CAN party
    As always in the central Saturday of climate talks, NGOs will host a party. It will start at 9pm at the Casino des Bundesrechnungshofes, just north of the World Conference Centre on the banks of the Rhine. The address is Adenauer Allee 81, 53113 Bonn. From the notice sent out by organisers Climate Action Network (CAN), it sounds like it’s a cash bar and you’ll need your conference badges to get in. CAN also note that the party “has a zero-tolerance policy towards all forms of harassment”.

    Pay up!
    On Saturday, there will be a special briefing by UNFCCC chief on the secretariat’s finances. Patricia Espinosa will plead for countries to pay their dues. Outstanding cash stood at EUR 5.7 million at the turn of the year, around 22% of the secretariat’s 2018 budget. The meeting will be at 1pm in meeting room Genf.
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/05/05/bonn-morning-brief-wisdom-talanoa/

    CAN party doesn’t sound like a whole lotta fun.

    no surprise the moderate Aussie suggestion to reduce the number of COPS to 3 in 5 years was shot down.

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    From CTH blind no longer says: May05,18:23:17

    From”At this point, I put Rosenstein ahead of all others in the Obama Administration and Crooked Cankles herself, as the #1 corrupt bastard to go to prison. Without Rosenstein, there would be no Special Counsel…he is now #1 on my takedown list.”

    Rosenstein is but a faithful bureaucrat that carried out the orders of P45 and AG Sessions to restore lawful order to the US government. How else would you do it?
    The bureaucracy of FBI, DOJ, and dept of State, may all be destroyed! OTOH all such was so corrupt that none can be repaired, only completely replaced by those that honor oath taken. Oath to GOD can never replace oath to own personal integrity!-will-

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    Another Ian

    “The day UN gender-gap reporting jumped the shark. ”

    http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2018/05/the-day-un-gender-gap-reporting-jumped-the-shark-.html

    “19% of journalists killed in 2017 were women”

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    Another Ian

    “Symmetry and Balance”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/05/symmetry-and-balance/

    Another Willis E look at Ceres data

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      Peter C

      Thanks Ian,

      Willis E is always worth reading so I read his article.

      I became confused when I came to his graph of surface radiance vs net solar input. It seems is if the Earth radiates more energy than it receives from the sun! That made me wonder about how the data of Earth radiance is obtained.

      The first half dozen comments seemed to concur.

      What did you think?

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        Another Ian

        Peter C

        I think that might be an “Ask Willis” question – it is above my pay grade

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        RickWill

        NASA NEO provide the net TOA radiation:
        https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=CERES_NETFLUX_M

        Willis is still defying the second law of thermodynamics with a cold atmosphere radiating to a hotter surface – its nonsense.

        This is because the greenhouse gases absorb the upwelling surface radiation, and when they radiate, about half of the radiation goes up, and half goes back towards the earth.

        This is straight out of the IPCC fairy tale.

        There are plenty of data sets showing surface temperature. “Radiation Temperature” is make believe.

        From an energy perspective the oceans matter not the land. Land basically gives up every day what it gets. Ocean distribute energy globally and have massive heat capacity and long time constants.

        Drawing conclusions from this unscientific nonsense is meaningless.

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    pat

    behind paywall:

    4 May: UK Telegraph: Ministers consider plan to ban non-electric cars from Britain’s roads
    By Alan Tovey
    Cars unable to travel 50 miles on battery power would be banned from sale from 2040 under plans being considered by the Government to improve Britain’s air quality.
    The move is one of the proposals in an internal government review aimed at making transport in the UK more environmentally friendly by driving motorists into electric vehicles.
    However, the idea has been met with fury by the car industry, which called it “unrealistic” and based “on neither fact nor substance”.

    If enacted, virtually all cars currently on sale would be outlawed – including hybrids such as the bestselling Toyota Prius which has a combined petrol engine and battery drive train.
    Even “plug-in” hybrids which have an engine…
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/05/04/ministers-consider-plan-ban-non-electric-cars-britains-roads/

    road to zero! great ending to this one:

    5 May: UK Independent: The Western world has finally become determined to lower vehicle emissions despite years of looking the other way
    The issue is not new, but the combination of outrage over the VW emissions scandal and advances in technology have put the issue at the top of the political and environmental agenda
    by Hamish McRae
    The UK’s ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2040 will be extended to include plug-in hybrids too, under a new plan called Road to Zero…

    Some MPs want the ban to come forward to 2030. Paris and Rome are to ban all diesel cars from 2024. And Oxford is going to ban all non-electric vehicles from its centre by 2020, to become the world’s first city to end the reign of the internal combustion engine.

    Those at least are the headlines of recent weeks, the Road to Zero one being leaked on Friday. The detail, as always, is more nuanced. This plan envisages electric cars being allowed to have petrol engines too. It is just that the electric range has to be at least 50 miles, whereas most plug-in hybrids now only have about 30 miles. But we are talking at least 10 years away and given the advances in battery technology that should be easy to achieve.

    The Paris plan is to ban diesel cars by 2024 (but not, as I understand it, delivery trucks) and petrol ones by 2030, but the implementation does sound less hardline. The city’s municipal authority says: “The aim is no way formulated as a ‘ban’ by 2030, but as a trajectory which seems both credible and sustainable.”
    In the case of Rome, it seems to be following Paris, but at the moment the main thing Romans have to go on is a statement by the mayor, Virginia Raggi, on her Facebook page to this effect.

    As for Oxford, the banning of non-electrics is to start with at least, confined to a handful of streets at the very centre. The main obvious casualty looks like being the famous covered market, a collection of small independent shops under a communal roof dating back to 1774, at present stocked by diesel vans that unload on its northern flank. Expect some softening of the plan there.

    But – and this is the important point – even allowing for some tweaking of the regulations, getting rid of vehicles driven by diesel and petrol engines is becoming one of the great seismic shifts of our age. The policy is being put in place by politicians, but this is one of those occasions where the political establishment is, if anything, lagging behind popular opinion…

    The internal combustion engine has dominated the world for roughly a century, utterly transforming road transport, radically cutting the cost of shipping, and making possible the development of aircraft. But it is an inelegant technology. It does the job, but it is complex to manufacture and maintain. It requires a gearbox and a clutch. It has reciprocating parts and a lot of them. It is noisy and polluting. Its fuel is volatile and dangerous to transport. A modern car engine is a masterpiece, but it has taken 140 years of development to get there.

    Electric power is inherently a much “better” technology. It has far fewer moving parts and no reciprocating ones. It needs no gearbox or clutch. It has much greater torque. And above all, there is no local pollution. It has only one disadvantage. We have not been able to find a cheap way of storing electricity…
    Soon it will be cheaper to make a electric car than an internal combustion one of similar spec…

    I don’t need to add that the advance did not come from the established manufacturers but from a maverick inventor with no background in the motor trade – Elon Musk. What is worth adding is that the fall in the cost of making batteries is coming not from the old developed world of the US and Europe but from the soon-to-be-largest economy of all, China.

    So this is a tale about politics and the environment. But more than that, it is a tale about technology. Thanks to that we can go along the Road to Zero.

    ***How we will generate electricity, though, is a whole other question
    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/wv-emissions-scandal-road-to-zero-hybrid-electric-cars-elon-musk-sustainability-a8337976.html

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      Another Ian

      Pat

      Have faith

      The vehicular wisdom of their predecessors brought in the “Red Flag” rule

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      robert rosicka

      The fossil fuel cars put out nowadays, certainly since 2011 have all been made with efficiency and emissions in mind but no reliability from what I can see .
      No wonder Molden took off from manufacturing here if the Holden Cruise is typical of what they sell .
      Just rescued the daughter who had a flat battery in a 2011 petrol model , when I tested the battery it was 8 volts so bought a new battery but the so called economy designed alternator seems to be partly at fault it’s designed to produce basically nothing unless the computer says so unlike a normal alternator .
      A manufacturing fault in the crimp of the negative wire batt clamp lets the computer think it’s charging too much so cuts the charge which then allows the engine to spin easier leading to fuel savings supposedly .
      Another power and fuel saver on this model is the fancy 6 speed auto that just doesn’t know what gear it’s supposed to be in when you go below 50 kilometres an hour ,this has been looked at by two Holden dealers and a transmission specialist and the verdict was all the same they reset the adaptive learning and said it needs to learn your style of driving for a few months then it will be ok .
      I now find it’s another common fault similar to the big Ford payout recently for the same thing , best bit was after leaving the battery disconnected for 20 minutes the jerking of the gears has disappeared.

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        Hanrahan

        A bit unfair to rubbish all new cars based on a Holden.
        I ran a servo in the sixties and always kept a lot of Holden spares on the shelf, as did the other 40 servos in a regional town. They never improved. And in case you think I’m giving Ford a pass, the only good car they sold was the Laser, a rebadged Mazda.
        My 5 yr old Toyota has worked perfectly. Don’t like them? Try Kia, Hyundai, Subaru or Mazda.
        Thoughts to ponder: The grey motor Holden couldn’t get from Marlborough to Sarina on a tank of fuel nor could they climb Cunningham’s Gap without boiling. [That would depend on the driver I'd guess but three on the tree doesn't give a lot of options with gears]

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          robert rosicka

          Pick a new car Hanrahan any make any model that’s been out for longer than 6 months , the new Ford ranger is up to 27 recalls and the latest gets fixed by driving it over the pit and removing any built up grass / debris in the cleverly designed grass catcher underneath .
          Not a fix but does the job .
          This model and I think the BT 50 are among a few that also have a nasty surprise for anyone changing the oil , if you don’t refill the oil after draining it quick enough the oil pump loses prime .
          Type anycar brand ,make and model into a google search and add the words “faults or problems” you will be amazed .
          You could also go to the ACCC site and look up recalls automotive if you have a spare month .

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            Hanrahan

            the new Ford ranger is up to 27 recalls

            I deliberately excluded Ford from my list of recommended cars. In the sixties their upper ball joint separated, they still do today on the Territory.

            I thought back then that “poverty is owning a European car” and still believe that. My Japanese cars and vans have been remarkably reliable. To rubbish all cars because Ford and Holden are poor is grossly unfair.

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              robert rosicka

              Toyota ,Mitsubishi, Nissan can’t think of the others but the faults are many and recalls like I said just check then check the various forums associated with each brand .
              There’s a heap of forums dedicated to the Nissan grenade (Patrol) and the Toyota equivalent every year needs new big end bearings and the list goes on there’s even one brand that the motor needs to be split in two just to replace spark plugs .
              The Jap cars that have one belt that does pretty much everything – timing ,water pump, alternator , steering pump is not one you want either .
              I’m sure there are reliable new and late models but from what I can see it’s a bit like our current crop of politicians, finding one with the least amount of faults .
              I know fleet owners and one person in charge of buying new vehicles all Jap and one that’s driven all their range for that company it’s astounding the problems they have .

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                Hanrahan

                Rob, we are clearly miles apart and neither will convince the other. But look at warranties, for decades they were 12,000 miles or 12 months. During that time many owners were on first name terms with their service manager and you can’t compare recalls because there weren’t any. All defects were a “feature of the model”. I haven’t mentioned rust but HD Holdens were getting rust cut out after a few years. A tune up seldom lasted 10,000 miles, you needed a valve regrind at 25,000 and a new short motor at 50.000 unless you were a taxi and got 100,000.

                A thought to ponder: How many mechanics do you know? Not many I’d guess. Fifty years ago everyone had a mechanic as a neighbour. The service hours per 100,000 KMs would be a small fraction of what they once were.

                You mentioned that things are going down hill since 2011. That is not consistent with the data on Camry Hybrids, which I own.

                https://www.carcomplaints.com/Toyota/Camry_Hybrid/

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                yarpos

                Sounds like yearning for the good old days really. The roadsides arent exactly littered with broken down cars are they? the only ones I see are about 95% neglected bogan mobiles.

                My Hilux has passed 400k kilometres and continues to chug along fine, we have been driving Subarus since the late 90s with zero issues and routine services.

                Most modern cars use serpentine belts because they are far more (by a very long way) reliable than V belts, and dont need adjusting. A while ago I replaced the vbelt on my Hilux as I had forgotten to put it in my home service list. It was 8 years old and had done 360k, looked new and could be folded on otself without cracking. Materials science has come a long way.

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              Another Ian

              Hanrahan

              It is the lower ones and in earlier models

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        C. Paul Barreira

        No matter the field of manufacturing, it will have two characteristics. The first is to have more or less immediate obsolescence built in. The second is to have ever-weakening engineering. Processors, allegedly, will do it all.

        And not a greenie in sight, but then they oppose engineering per se.

        My father, decades ago, was somewhat sympathetic to the Club of Rome. I disagreed with him at the time but now, when waste from one or other cause, such as lousy engineering and super-cheap manufacturing, is like an avalanche, I am not so sure.

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    pat

    4 May: Scotsman: Transport minister says Holyrood does not have power to ban diesels
    by Angus Howarth
    Scottish transport chiefs have admitted they don’t have the powers to ban the sale of diesel cars by 2032.
    Transport minister Humza Yousaf made the admission at an energy conference in Glasgow where he said the Scottish Government does not have the power to enforce a ban on the sale of fully diesel and petrol powered cars.
    It comes months after ministers set the target to ‘phase out the need’ for new version of such cars and set Scotland on course to become be only the fifth country in the world to do so…

    He said: “We don’t have the legislative powers to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars.”
    But he added: “It is always better to have ambitious targets even if they are not achievable.”
    The minister was speaking at the All Energy conference in Glasgow, which focuses on sustainable renewable energy.

    Westminster announced last July they would ban sales of the cars in the UK by 2040 following a similar announcement in France…
    Holyrood decided to raise the bar and said the ban in Scotland would come into force eight years earlier…
    https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport-minister-says-holyrood-does-not-have-power-to-ban-diesels-1-4734742

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    Mark M

    Turns out emitting a trace gas (CO2) is a truly lousy way of boiling and acidifying oceans, causing mass extinctions …

    Lobster fishermen are enjoying banner seasons in Nova Scotia thanks in part to climate change and 2018 is promising another bumper crop, thanks to global warming.
    http://www.ngnews.ca/news/global-warming-good-for-lobstersso-far-207320/

    record oyster:
    Big bivalve Jack turns four this year and weighs in at nearly 2kg

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/food/sydney-taste/big-bivalve-jack-turns-four-this-year-and-weighs-in-at-nearly-2kg/news-story/16f79c348a66ec427eb71a30011dd2ee

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    pat

    this study was published 23 March, but I can’t see any other MSM coverage at all; only some online blogs (incl GWPF) who picked it up from the following. (Wikipedia: Pacific Standard Mag was founded in 2008, the magazine is published in print and online by The Social Justice Foundation, headquartered in Santa Barbara, California):

    5 May: PacificStandardMag: On Climate Change, a Disconnect Between Attitudes and Behavior
    A new study (LINK) finds climate change skeptics are more likely to behave in eco-friendly ways than those who are highly concerned about the issue.
    by Tom Jacobs
    (Tom Jacobs is the senior staff writer of Pacific Standard, where he specializes in social science, culture, and learning. He is a veteran journalist and former staff writer for the Los Angeles Daily News and the Santa Barbara News-Press)
    Participants in a year-long study who doubted the scientific consensus on the issue “opposed policy solutions,” but at the same time, they “were most likely to report engaging in individual-level, pro-environmental behaviors,” writes a research team led by University of Michigan psychologist Michael Hall.
    Conversely, those who expressed the greatest belief in, and concern about, the warming environment “were most supportive of government climate policies, but least likely to report individual-level actions.”…

    The study, published in the Journal of Environmental Psychology, followed more than 400 (STUDY SAYS 600) Americans for a full year. On seven occasions—roughly once every eight weeks—participants revealed their climate change beliefs, and their level of support for policies such as gasoline taxes and fuel economy standards.
    They also noted how frequently they engaged in four environmentally friendly behaviors: recycling, using public transportation, buying “green” products, and using reusable shopping bags.
    The researchers found participants broke down into three groups, which they labeled “skeptical,” “cautiously worried,” and “highly concerned.” While policy preferences of group members tracked with their beliefs, their behaviors largely did not…

    Hall and his colleagues can only speculate about the reasons for their results. But regarding the concerned but inactive, the psychological phenomenon known as moral licensing is a likely culprit.
    Previous research has found doing something altruistic—even buying organic foods—gives us license to engage in selfish activity. We’ve “earned” points in our own mind. So if you’ve pledged some money to Greenpeace, you feel entitled to enjoying the convenience of a plastic bag…

    Hall and his colleagues can only speculate about the reasons for their results. But regarding the concerned but inactive, the psychological phenomenon known as moral licensing is a likely culprit.
    Previous research has found doing something altruistic—even buying organic foods—gives us license to engage in selfish activity. We’ve “earned” points in our own mind. So if you’ve ***pledged some money to Greenpeace, you feel entitled to enjoying the convenience of a plastic bag.
    https://psmag.com/environment/mission-compostable

    ***or simply signed a ridiculous Greenpeace petition?

    5 May: Greenpeace: If finance is upholding climate change – we will not uphold finance
    by Jennifer Morgan, Executive Director of Greenpeace International (formerly Global Director of the Climate Program at the World Resources Institute)
    It is our right, and duty, to disobey when we are unwillingly forced to participate in climate destruction. That’s why our colleagues in Sweden are challenging financial institutions by stopping payments to the state pension fund, because of the role it plays in fuelling climate change.
    It’s civil disobedience 101, shaped in the twenty-first century. And you can jump on board (LINK TO PETITION)…

    In Sweden, as elsewhere, everyone contributes to the state pension fund through taxes. These funds then invest in oil, coal and gas (with the exception of some countries like Ireland). This means that with every hour you work, like it or not, you are contributing to climate change in more ways that you realise.
    In Sweden, as elsewhere, everyone contributes to the state pension fund through taxes. These funds then invest in oil, coal and gas (with the exception of some countries like Ireland). This means that with every hour you work, like it or not, you are contributing to climate change in more ways that you realise…

    NIGHT PIC SMOKE CHIMNEYS: Caption: Brown coal power plants operated by Swedish company, Vattenfall

    According to a recent UN report, the world needs $90 trillion in the next 15 years to achieve the goals set by the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development. The message is clear: we need to increase exponentially the investment flows into solutions like renewable energy and energy efficiency, and avoid financing fossil fuel projects…

    Reaching climate targets requires that the vast majority of fossil fuels are kept in the ground, meaning that the assets of the companies extracting them will be stranded…
    You can help the campaign by signing the petition to get the Swedish Pension Funds out of fossil fuels.
    https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/16274/finance-climate-change-insurances-tax-sweden/

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      Mary E

      Participants in a year-long study who doubted the scientific consensus on the issue “opposed policy solutions,” but at the same time, they “were most likely to report engaging in individual-level, pro-environmental behaviors,” writes a research team led by University of Michigan psychologist Michael Hall.
      Conversely, those who expressed the greatest belief in, and concern about, the warming environment “were most supportive of government climate policies, but least likely to report individual-level actions.”…

      Huh. Maybe because a lot of us “deniers” are well and truly aware of environmental issues that are real and actually do our best to not foul the nests we carefully built with hard-earned pay, or the environs of said nests. We are responsible adults, not children making a mess and waiting for the ‘rents to pick up after us, complaining when they refuse do to so.

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    Just Thinkin'

    I see the southern states must be having excellent Autumn weather….

    Wind power production as at 1750 hours is

    SA 123 MW
    Vic 78 MW
    NSW 104 MW

    Tassie doesn’t count as it is still not connected to our grid.

    Just what you need for stable base load power….NOT…

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      Graeme#4

      The main point I take from the PP is that “We should do no harm”. Yet to me, it’s obvious that the measures now in place to minimise the non-existent threats of CO2 ARE doing harm.

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    Annie

    As it’s the Weekend Unthreaded, I’ll pass on the entirely trivial detail that I fished a duck (from Aldi) out of the freezer yesterday. It has been gently cooking in the oven part of our trusty wood stove for quite a while this afternoon, while we had a small bonfire of fruit tree prunings (the sheep love them, the leaves, that is). Time to assemble and cook a few vegs on the stove top. We love our multi- purpose stove!
    Cheers, I’m just enjoying a splash of JW Black Label, brought back from Dubai Duty Free…a pity it’s nearly gone.

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      Yonniestone

      “Fished a Duck” is this possible or an unnatural discovery that becomes legend?

      Wood stoves make a house a home, beautiful creators of ambiance and treasured memories.

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      yarpos

      Well done!

      On a car forum I am on there are two random long running off topic threads. One is called “Thread about nothing” and the other is “The Thread about small things that p1$$ you off, but shouldnt” The content there is somewhat similar to Jo’s weekend and mid week delights.

      Its good for people to vent, you get to learn about weird stuff and gain little insights into fellow forumers :-)

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    Ian Hill

    Those weird yellow bikes have been in the news lately. Seems they rely on the honour system to leave the helmet with them. Anyone using them without a helmet can be fined $330. I’m astounded that sharing of helmets is even allowed in this country. Surely a health issue. No way would I use someone else’s.

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      Hanrahan

      Sometimes The Territory [Northern Territory for our US friends] is a beacon of sanity. Apart from their enlightened attitude to speed limits they don’t enforce bike helmets. [or they didn't last time I heard]. In that heat I couldn’t imagine hire bikes would be a thriving business though.

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      • #

        The Territory

        remains Warm! Whatever the Socialist non-defined term ‘warm’ may mean to us poor peons! COLD KILLS!

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          C. Paul Barreira

          And not only “cold”.

          See, for example here and here, The Advertiser, for Monday 16 January 19139, pp. 18 and 19, in the wake of a heat wave of ten days’ duration and accentuated by monstrous bushfires in its last days.

          And try this comment:

          Mr. W. J. Denny . . . said that now that the average heat for 13 days exceeded 112. there would be an end to the loose talk of the change in the South Australian climate. It was absurd to suppose that the climate of a country could change within a comparatively short period.

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      Yonniestone

      Its really unhygienic considering how much sweat, oil from hair and body fat emits from the head, a good way to get hepatitis or scabies off some dirty greenie.

      The swapping of dirty helmets is known to cause many health problems and if you could see mine after a year of use you wouldn’t touch one again.

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    Ian1946

    I am in a discussion with a member of the church of climatology. The are insistent that the country can be powered by renewable energy an coal is dead.

    I have tried to explain reality but I am failing. Could someone to lease check my logic.

    Base load = 18Gw
    Max load = 30Gw

    As solar and wind are only 30% efficient them 90Gw of renewable energy would need to installed this meet the maximum load. Because we have wet windless days then up to 450Gw of storage would be needed to give 5 days supply.. Because storage needs to be charged then the 90Gw would need to be increased to say 360Gw so the batteries and hydro could have 450Gw in storage whilst providing power to the Nation.

    The climatologist rejected my maths saying the wind is always blowing somewhere and so is the sun.

    Any thoughts?

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      Peter C

      the wind is always blowing somewhere and so is the sun.

      He is correct!
      ;-)

      But the wind is often not blowing in all South East Australian (SA, Vic and NSW) which is all of our grid.

      And the sun is absent from our hemisphere for half of each day, and all day on cloudy days. Therefore we need 100% backup fossil fuel power at all times.

      The King Island Renewable Energy Integration Project has proved that time after time.
      http://www.kingislandrenewableenergy.com.au/

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        Hanrahan

        So currently diesel is only generating 96% of demand on King Is. All that money spent to save a few litres of diesel.

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      Any thoughts?

      Our primary (SUN) remains a variable STAR in electromagnetic power emission to space! Wee Earth can absorb but an unknown insignificant portion of such flux. Why is it that self appointed academics foolishly claim KNOWLEDGE of IS? All the rest of us peer from bushes while eating berries!
      All the best!-will-

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      RickWill

      Your maths is a little out and you have confused power (GW) and energy (GWh).

      The base and peak are not as important as the average for sizing a system. With present relative costs of components and conditions in Australia, the economic buffered capacity factors are 7% for wind and 4% for solar.

      Taking an average daily energy of 552GWh (23GW average demand by 24 hours) in the NEM you need 328GW of wind capacity or 575GW of solar. The battery needs to hold 2 days of energy or 1100GWh. The cost at current prices works out at about AUD1,500,000M.

      This is 100% run-when-ever-you-like generation; no fossil fuel at all. There is a more economic solution using some fossil fuel but the most economic is mostly coal with a little gas generation for meeting peak demand.

      The linked paper considers the situation in Germany. If you can work through this you will have a better understanding of buffering as it uses actual grid data and wind generation:
      http://www.hanswernersinn.de/dcs/2017%20Buffering%20Volatility%20EER%2099%202017.pdf

      This link shows my working to power Australia solely from solar/battery using the actual recorded data from Broken Hill solar plant;
      https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgWpiQvBCqnKZ5dJy
      This includes some detail on my off-grid system. For Melbourne you can go off grid with solar/battery if you your system can meet your highest June demand with 2 hours of sunshine in 48 hours. So if you use 12kWh in your highest consumption day in June you can get away with 12kW of solar panels and a 24kWh battery. This corresponds to an average demand of 500W at a capital cost of say $36,000. You would need 45M of such systems to power Australia or $1,620,000M; a little more than the figure above.

      There is a misconception that spreading the generation geographically can some how smooth out the ups and down; as in the sun is always shinning somewhere and the wind is always blowing somewhere. However there are time when there is no wind or sunlight across the eastern States of Australia.

      The way to verify these numbers is to go along to a supplier of off-grid systems and ask them for a price for a system that will power your home for 999 days out of 1000. You do not want to use a standby generator. You will need to know your highest June demand and give your location.

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      yarpos

      “The climatologist rejected my maths saying the wind is always blowing somewhere and so is the sun.”

      Maths is kryptonite to liberals and alarmists.

      The climatologist also naively thinks that power is easily and transmitted vast distances without losses. Fairly typical magical thinking.

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    Ian1946

    Ughhhh auto correct please check my logic

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    el gordo

    When we talk of the big UK freeze of 2009-10 it might be a good idea to see what the sun was doing.

    ‘Researchers are keeping a wary eye on the sun now because of what happened the last time sunspots disappeared. The solar minimum of 2008-2009 was unusually deep. The sun set Space Age records for low sunspot number, weak solar wind, and depressed solar irradiance. When the sun finally woke up a few years later, it seemed to have “solar minimum hangover.”

    ‘The bounce-back Solar Max of 2012-2015 was the weakest solar maximum of the Space Age, prompting some to wonder if solar activity is entering a phase of sustained quiet. The faster-than-expected decline of the sunspot cycle now may support that idea.’

    GWPF

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    pat

    4 May: Reuters: UPDATE 2-Global wind turbine makers hit by subsidy squeeze
    * Vestas’ first-quarter operating profit lags
    * Siemens Gamesa Q2 adjusted EBIT down 40 pct y/y
    * Fierce competition continues to bite
    * Some signs of price stabilisation
    * Both stocks fall more than 3 pct (Wraps in Siemens Gamesa Q2 results, background)
    By Stine Jacobsen and Jose Elías Rodríguez
    The wind power industry is undergoing a period of painful readjustment as governments from Europe to Latin America rein in subsidies and turn to competitive tenders, putting pressure on prices throughout the supply chain…
    “It’s challenging across the board, it’s very competitive,” Vestas’ Chief Financial Officer Marika Fredriksson told Reuters.

    Vestas’ operating profit for the January-March period of 126 million euros ($150.7 million) was a decline of 40 percent and also lagged analysts’ forecast of 137 million euros.
    Majority owned by Germany’s Siemens following a merger of its wind power business with Spain’s Gamesa last year, Siemens Gamesa said adjusted operating earnings for the same period fell 40 percent to 189 million euros.
    Shares in Denmark’s Vestas fell 4.4 percent by 0925 GMT while Siemens Gamesa traded down 3.4 percent…
    https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N1SB1KR

    4 May: BBC: BiFab workers given redundancy notices, say unions
    Most of the remaining shop floor workers at the two BiFab fabrication yards in Fife have been given redundancy notices, say union leaders.
    It comes three weeks after a takeover by a Canadian engineering firm – brokered by the Scottish government.
    The end of the contract building platforms for offshore wind turbines has left the company with no work.

    According to the GMB and Unite unions, 35 out of 43 core workers at Methil and Burntisland are affected…
    A similar reduction of staffing at the Arnish yard on the Isle of Lewis has already taken place.
    The three sites employed about 1,400 people before BiFab announced at the end of 2017 was set to go into administration.
    Union leaders said: “The scale and speed of these redundancies was not expected”, but they vowed to continue their “Battle for BiFab”…
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-44006601

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      RickWill

      How is possible that the lowest cost generator of electric energy can be struggling to grow its market! Could it be that the world has realised they literally NEED to have power irrespective of the strength of the wind.

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    pat

    5 May: CBC: Jason Kenney vows to fight ‘green left’ if he becomes Alberta premier
    UCP leader promises to go to court to end charitable status for Tides Canada, Suzuki Foundation
    Michelle Bellefontaine
    Jason Kenney vowed in a fiery speech to a hotel ballroom packed full of United Conservative Party members that he will fight the “green left,” and cut off the foreign money he says is being spent by “anti-Alberta” groups.

    The UCP leader outlined his strategies he would take to defend the oil and gas industry in an hour-long speech that frequently brought the crowd to its feet.
    “If I am elected premier of Alberta, I will not relent. I will go to the wall. I will form alliances. I will go to court,” Kenney proclaimed. “I will use every tool available to defend this province.”

    These tools include setting up a “fully-staffed, rapid response war room” within government to defend the resource sector and, “effectively rebut every lie told by the green left.”
    Kenney also pledged to establish a legislature special committee to investigate foreign funding behind “the anti-Alberta special interests.”
    “We will go to court if necessary to get the federal government to strip charitable status from bogus charities like Tides Canada and the David Suzuki Foundation,” he said.

    Kenney plans to travel to Ottawa Monday to appear before the House of Commons finance committee. He plans to bring the party’s anti-carbon tax resolution that will likely be passed on Sunday…ETC
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/jason-kenney-ucp-agm-1.4650521

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    Another Ian

    “Shock Study: Climate Skeptics More ‘Eco-Friendly’ than Climate Alarmists”

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/05/06/shock-study-climate-skeptics-eco-friendly-climate-alarmists/

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      RickWill

      Why is this a Shock. Skeptics understand how things work while alarmists believe in fairy tales. Alarmists are remain children and take no responsibility for their actions.

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    Another Ian

    “Perverse, conflicted ethical systems – then and now”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/06/perverse-conflicted-ethical-systems-then-and-now/

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    Another Ian

    “9500 Year Old City Underwater Off Indian Coast”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2018/05/06/9500-year-old-city-underwater-off-indian-coast/

    “This find now pretty much sinks that Only Egypt as the start of “civilization” idea.”

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    Another Ian

    More Australian government give-aways

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2018/05/06/blowout-227/#comments

    How much (link from a comment)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Climate_Fund

    (Click to enlarge the graph)

    “and how you can now earn UN carbon credits by riding your bicycle”

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    Another Ian

    More on the green climate fund

    “You cynics complain about waste!

    The administration cost for the Green Climate Fund is a mere U.S. $46 million. But hey these are early days!

    https://www.greenclimate.fund/documents/20182/490910/GCF_B.15_21_Rev.01_-_Administrative_Budget_of_the_Green_Climate_Fund_for_2017.pdf/a81747f5-e383-4ba9-b232-417482798098

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2018/05/06/blowout-227/#comment-1112712

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    David Maddison

    Yesterday I drove past the Waubra Wind Subsidy Farm and was very saddened by this eyesore that represents stupidity, anti-science and deliberate economic destruction.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waubra_Wind_Farm

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    dinn, rob

    15,900,000 rubles to betray Russian people http://www.balance10.blogspot.com

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    David Maddison

    CO2 is still dangerously low and too close to the point of plant life dying due to lack of CO2.

    See article for full text and graphs.

    QUOTE

    With atmospheric CO2 concentrations reaching the 400 ppm level, the media and a number of alarmist scientists have set off the mega-alarm bells, claiming “record high levels” of CO2 had been reached, and that the planet is on the verge of an overdose. This is based purely on ignorance of the Earth’s history.

    Worrying that 400 ppm is too high is like worrying about your fuel tank overflowing when it reaches the 1/8 mark during filling.

    Figure above-right: At 400 ppm CO2 levels are actually dangerously low in historical terms.

    From a historical perspective, an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 ppm is actually almost scraping the bottom of the barrel. Over the Earth’s history, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have ranged from 180 ppm to 7000 ppm, see Figure 1 below. On that scale we are in fact today barely above the Earth’s record lows.

    That 400 ppm is actually dangerously low is a fact the alarmists keep avoiding and suppressing. Below 150 ppm, plant-life dies off on a massive scale. The Earth actually came very close to that point many times over the last 2 million years during the ice ages. At the bottom of the last ice age just 20,000 years ago, life on the planet literally teetered on the brink when CO2 fell to a level of just 180 ppm. Do we really want to live on the brink of extinction?

    http://notrickszone.com/2013/05/17/atmospheric-co2-concentrations-at-400-ppm-are-still-dangerously-low-for-life-on-earth/

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    Another Ian

    “Maps – People’s Republic Of Clinton vs United States Of Trump”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2018/05/06/maps-peoples-republic-of-clinton-vs-united-states-of-trump/

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      Hanrahan

      NBR, The meeting place of intelligent business.

      Anyone who claims higher intelligence in their header has lost me.

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      PeterS

      It’s ironic how certain CAGW alarmists always want to point out how anyone with a different view to theirs is wrong but never provide actual scientific evidence to support their side of the argument, and at best provide either falsified or misleading evidence. It has to be a sign of a mental disorder on their part. I’m not talking about those in the public who are gullible enough to believe whatever they read. I’m referring to supposedly intelligent people who presumably carry out at least some research before commenting. Either that or they are exactly what they claim others to be who disagree with them. Another possibility is they are believers in truth relativism. In other words they believe that truth is relative and as such what is truth to one person can be the opposite to truth to another. That of course requires such a distorted form of logic and common sense that it’s mentally sick.

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    pat

    not sure this is a good PR move for Acciona/Hemsworth or CAGW:

    Light rail: Contractor Acciona using Liam Hemsworth in social media push to save the world
    Daily Telegraph · 8 hours ago

    6 May: Daily Mail: Spanish company building Sydney’s disastrous light rail is slammed for Liam Hemsworth-led celebrity ads for ‘investing in the planet’
    Company involved in light rail has launched an environmental campaign
    Liam Hemsworth is the face of the campaign designed to ‘invest in the planet’
    Acciona is in proceedings against Transport for New South Wales
    In an attempt to distract from troubles with the progress of the light rail, Acciona has enlisted Australian actor Liam Hemsworth, known for his role in the Hunger Games films, and Karla Souza, who is known for her role in How To Get Away With Murder…

    In a paid endorsement video shared by Mr Hemsworth on his social media accounts, he explains how he believes it is important to ‘invest in the planet’.
    He said: ‘I have been invited to be a part of Acciona’s new initiative on climate change and how it affects life as we know it.
    ‘Acciona is already delivering sustainable solutions for infrastructure and renewable projects across the world but each and every one of us should be thinking about how we can invest in our planet’s future.’
    He invites people to get in contact with him to discuss ways to minimise the world’s footprint.

    He also shared a video campaign by the infrastructure company which depicts scenes of madness in a stock exchange type setting before figures and numbers on screens are replaced by environmental disasters.
    This all unfolds to the tune of Gary Jules’ Mad World.

    In a press release on their website Acciona explains that: ‘The international campaign will have local brand ambassadors, replicating Acciona’s commitment to sharing a global vision with a local commitment in the communities where it operates.’
    The website explains that the campaign: ‘challenges the investment community to re-examine their investment strategies, particularly with regard to their impact on the planet.’
    ‘Nevertheless, slow progress in arresting climate change has led ACCIONA to urge the investment community to take a step further and support initiatives to climate change.’

    An Acciona Australia spokesman told the Daily Telegraph that the campaign was not tied to one specific project.
    He said: ‘It reflects our values as a company, and the importance of responsible investment in infrastructure, water and renewable energy.’…
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5697105/Spanish-company-building-Sydneys-light-rail-slammed-celebrity-ads-investing-planet.html

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    pat

    behind paywall…

    ***”all it has delivered for consumers is higher bills particularly for the poorest people”

    tell that to theirABC/Fairfax/Guardian/BBC:

    6 May: UK Times: GMB slams renewables ‘failure’
    by John Boothman
    The leader of one of Scotland’s biggest trade unions has described the country’s lack of success in capitalising on the renewables revolution as a catalogue of failure.
    Gary Smith, the Scottish secretary of the GMB, accused the UK and Scottish governments of not delivering on job opportunities and investment in the emerging sectors, claiming they had raised expectations and broken promises.

    Speaking after last week’s surprise announcement that 35 of the remaining 43 core staff at the troubled BiFab engineering firm were to be made redundant, Smith said: “The renewables revolution has promised a lot but it has failed to create even remotely what Scotland could have achieved, and ***all it has delivered for consumers is higher bills particularly for the poorest people.

    “We were promised the Saudi Arabia of renewables but it has delivered very little in terms of manu facturing and employment.”

    It came as a report from Strathclyde Business School for the unions found that, despite growing demand, only 30% of content in UK offshore wind sites is sourced from UK suppliers.

    He said the report underlined the massive potential that exists, “but our political cheerleaders need to wake up to fact that there could be another missed opportunity here”…
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/gmb-slams-renewables-failure-65f6t6nd5

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    pat

    5 May: UK Independent: Proposed ban on non-electric cars ‘not ambitious enough’, say environmentalists
    Earlier target of 2030 would slash air pollution by nearly a third, WWF says
    by Josh Gabbatiss, Science Correspondent
    The suggestion in leaked reports that a wider ban on sales of non-electric cars would encompass hybrid vehicles like the Toyota Prius is not going far enough, environmentalists have said.
    The car industry has dismissed the idea as “unrealistic”. But others have claimed the proposals to ban hybrids as well as diesel and petrol vehicles by 2040 will not be sufficient…

    Reports in both the Financial Times (LINK) and Autocar (LINK) have suggested rules currently being considered by ministers would limit new car sales to those able to travel at least 50 miles using only electric power.
    Such a change would mean around 98 per cent of all cars currently on sale in Britain would be outlawed.
    But while the proposal is allegedly backed by environment secretary Michael Gove and business secretary Greg Clark, transport secretary Chris Grayling opposes it.

    ***A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “It is categorically untrue that government is planning to ban the sale of hybrid cars in the UK by 2040.”

    Despite this opposition, the proposal is modest when compared with the targets suggested by environmentalists and government climate advisers.
    An analysis released by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in January called for “more stretching targets” to encourage uptake of electric vehicles, and recommended around 60 per cent of car and van sales should be electric by 2030.
    WWF has called for an even more ambitious target of 100 per cent electric vehicle sales by that date.

    “We will get an awful lot of the way there by 2030, and if the government just sends that extra signal, and closes that door a bit earlier, then it just ensures we secure that 10 years of benefits in terms of carbon emission reductions and air pollution,” Gareth Redmond-King, head of climate and energy at WWF told The Independent…

    “We cannot support ambition levels which do not appreciate how industry, the consumer or the market operate and which are based neither on fact nor substance,” said Mike Hawes, chief executive of the industry body SMMT.
    “Unrealistic targets and misleading messaging on bans will only undermine our efforts to realise this future, confusing consumers and wreaking havoc on the new car market and the thousands of jobs it supports.”…

    ***When the original vehicle ban was announced last summer, there was confusion around whether or not it would include hybrids. This confusion was partly blamed for a slump in new car sales this year…
    https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/hybrid-car-ban-electric-vehicle-diesel-prius-petrol-wwf-chris-grayling-a8337771.html

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      pat

      if i’m reading it correctly, “Promoting renewable energy” comes in at 10th out of 13, with 12% of LNP voters and 19% of ALP voters.

      at #1 is “Cost of living” with 44% of LNP voters and 52% of ALP voters.

      7 May: ABC: Chart of the day: Here’s what voters want the Government to focus on
      Interactive Digital Storytelling team By Matt Liddy
      Both Labor and Coalition voters want the Federal Government to focus on cost-of-living pressures and improving the health system, according to recent Essential polling.

      But company tax cuts, Essential finds, are at the other end of the priority list…
      CHARTS
      http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-07/chart-of-the-day-budget-most-important-issues/9727372

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        Robber

        And what most of the media refuses to focus on is affordable energy.
        “The moral dilemma for people who support the idea of renew­ables is that the technology to make energy green, reliable and affordable does not yet exist. We are paying for a big green experiment with devastating results for Australians with no money to spare. In the cold light of realism, climate change champions are ­beginning to look like used-car salesmen hawking a well-greased illusion. Buyer beware”.
        Yet we keep getting told that intermittent “renewables” are cheaper per the comment last week from Dr Schott, chair of the Energy Security Board, now sent a please explain by Resources Minister Matt Canavan. S”enator Canavan has told Energy Security Board chairwoman Kerry Schott he wants to see evidence to back up her claims that new coal-fired plants could no longer compete economically with pumped hydro, gas, wind and solar. Dr Schott said on Thursday her view was “not contentious at a factual level.”

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    pat

    a Gold Coast report, which explains the headline, but this is a SE Qld story:

    7 May: ABC: Gold Coast residents pay higher water bills than Sydneysiders
    ABC Gold Coast By Elise Kinsella
    In south east Queensland, the cost of accessing mains water is more than double what people connected to Sydney Water pay…
    Bond University commercial litigation lawyer Victoria Baumfield has studied water costs in south east Queensland and put together a chart comparing the region to other parts of the country (LINK).

    Associate Professor Baumfield found that water connection fees were at least $120 a year more for residents in south east Queensland than those using Sydney Water.
    Additionally, Gold Coast residents pay $3.90 per kilolitre for water usage whereas Sydney Water customers pay $2.04 per kilolitre…ETC

    High costs triggered by drought
    Associate Professor Baumfield said the Gold Coast’s high water rates started with a drought in the region in the mid 2000s…
    Pipes and a desalination plant at Tugun were built quickly and the Queensland Government took over water infrastructure to create a regional network…
    Associate Professor Baumfield said the issue with creating the new water infrastructure was the scale of the spending.

    ***”The Queensland Audit Office has criticised the amount of money that was spent on the desalination plant, claiming we overspent by hundreds of millions of dollars,” she said.
    “They claim we overspent on building a recycled water facility.

    “When you take all the spending on water infrastructure, which ended up being close to $9 billion, and you add the fact we moved to a policy of price-reflective costing — where the public has to pay the full amount — that leads to very high bills for individual water consumers.”

    ***Associate Professor Baumfield said the scale of the debt was so large that SEQ Water had not been making full loan repayments for the past decade.
    “What they have been doing is capitalising those unpaid interest amounts onto the principal of the debt.
    “A debt that was initially around $9 billion has become close to $10 billion because they were tacking on the interest. So we’re now paying interest on interest.”…
    She said water bills would continue to rise for Gold Coast residents and businesses as SEQ Water pays off the multi-billion dollar debt.

    Queensland Natural Resources Minister Anthony Lynham declined to speak to the ABC…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-07/gold-coast-water-costs-double-sydney-water/9732794

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      Ian1946

      Pat,

      Unity Water in the Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast areas are also ripped off compared to Brisbane Ciry. So the Gold Coast is not alone.

      Don’t expect the ALP to do anything as their hacks are running Unity Water and they will be too busy today celebrating socialist heroes such as Hugo Chauvez, Stalin, Pol Pot and Robert Magaube. For those in other states it is communism day In Queensland

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    pat

    as if theirABC cares…

    7 May: ABC: Coal-fired power station closure, ash dam rehabilitation draws scathing criticism from SA council
    ABC North and West By Gary-Jon Lysaght
    A South Australian council has made a scathing, 22 page submission to a Senate inquiry investigating the rehabilitation of coal-fired power stations and their ash dams.

    In its report, the Port Augusta City Council points to the failure of both the State and Federal Government to assist the community, following the closure of the Northern Power Station, one of the city’s biggest employers.
    It also said Flinders Power, a subsidiary of Alinta Energy, had failed to protect the local environment following the closure of the station.

    Alinta Energy owned the power station before closing it in 2016 ***saying it was no longer financially viable.
    “Efforts by the local community and the council to engage both the Commonwealth and State Government to fast-track opportunities and employment transition … proved frustrating and largely ineffective,” the submission said.

    Port Augusta Mayor Sam Johnson said the Federal Government made very little attempt to help the city transition away from its coal-fired past.
    “Whereas you look at the announcement of the Hazelwood power station, you had about a 24-hour response time from the Federal Government with a $43 million assistance package,” Mr Johnson said
    The submission said there was “cynicism felt by the Port Augusta community” by the “inequity when considering the level of support received by other communities facing closure of local coal-fired power stations”…

    Local business owner Michelle Coles has seen first-hand the impact of the power station’s closure on the community.
    “When you lose one of your major employers it affects the whole community because it affects not only those people who were employed at the power station, it affects every business,” Ms Coles said.
    “It just has such an incredible impact on the community.”…READ ON
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-07/sa-council-makes-scathing-assessment-of-power-station-closure/9732928

    ***this excerpt from a TonyfromOz comment in jo’s previous thread has been haunting me:

    TonyfromOz re:
    3 Apr: SMH: Nicole Hasham: A new coal-fired power plant would cost $3 billion, drive up energy prices and take eight years to build

    Tony: So, to generate just the equivalent power, you would need 200 Solar Plants, costing $35 Billion, and a new tech coal fired plant is too expensive at $3 Billion.

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    robert rosicka

    On the way home I just got the end of an ABC rural story about dairy farmers joining a micro grid and selling or buying excess solar generated power using a similar algorithm to bitcoin to register the power in power out etc .
    Having worked on a farm the mornings milking won’t be helped by solar much if any at all and the afternoon milking wouldn’t be much better but hey it is all about cheaper prices and energy reliability.

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      Another Ian

      RR

      It is all in the line of that “quality assurance that doesn’t assure quality”

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    el gordo

    Last year’s Federal Budget mentioned HSR, so we should expect something tomorrow night.

    https://infrastructure.gov.au/rail/trains/faster_rail/index.aspx

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    Chad

    SA wind power…….again !
    Well , for an hour or two, wind actually managed to supply enough to meet all the demand ( 1.0GW ) earlier today.
    BUT …why is it that when the wind does blow, they always seem to limit output at 1.3GW continuous, when there is over 1.8 GW generating capacity….whilst keeping the gas generators running at 300-500MW ?….even when its not needed.
    See. http://nemlog.com.au/gen/region/sa/

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      Robber

      AEMO has again intervened in the SA market.
      Market Notice 62737 AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.
      In accordance with section 116 of the National Electricity Law AEMO has issued a direction to a participant in the South Australia region.
      The direction was necessary to maintain the power system in a secure operating state.
      The direction was issued at 1430 hrs 6/05/2018, with effect from 0030 hrs 7/05/2018.
      The direction is expected to stay in place until 1530 hrs 7/05/2018. (AEMO will publish the reasons for their intervention after they complete a backlog of reports dating back to Nov 2017).

      Current SA demand is 1138 MW, wind providing 1026, gas 325 MW with surplus wired to Vic. I believe that they need about 25-30% gas to maintain a synchronous network, so they probably directed one of the gas generators to fire up (or did they tell a wind generator to cut back?. Gas has been running at a steady 300 MW all night and day according to Anero.id, with wind at a steady 1300 MW, higher than AEMO shows – is that due to system losses?
      In Vic Macarthur wind farm is delivering at virtually its nameplate capacity of 420 MW today, having been at about 50 MW yesterday.

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        robert rosicka

        Not sure how the AEMO do it but it must be one heck of a juggling act ,and I notice the battery is no big help in all this .

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      Chad

      Aaaaannnnddd…..after 16 hours of steady 1.3GW output, …its back to normal with <200MW wind output and SA sucking on the Victorian supply to keep the lights on !

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      yarpos

      “whilst keeping the gas generators running at 300-500MW ?….even when its not needed.” but it is needed when you have a high % of intermittents that may do whatever in the next 30 minutes

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    pat

    this is best posted here rather than on jo’s new thread.

    definitely the best overview/update on the ongoing democratic crisis in the US.

    (p.s. near the very end, Levin mentions Lisa Page still being at the FBI, but she resigned Friday, so am guessing the show was pre-recorded)

    chose this youtube video because, at time of posting, it’s not full of google ads:

    Youtube: 40mins51secs: 6 May: Fox News: Life, Liberty & Levin
    Former U.S. attorney Joseph diGenova and former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino discuss Mueller’s “Russia” investigation.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr4omkN_zsc

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    robert rosicka

    Another for this thread is the startling discovery that we only have twenty odd days fuel reserve in this country well no [snip] Sherlock , they were told this would or could be a problem when they announced the refinerys were about to close .

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    el gordo

    Cut-off low beat up, a high level pool of cold air is coming from Antarctica and it may get chilly in the south east.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf

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      Cut-off low beat up, a high level pool of cold air is coming from Antarctica and it may get chilly in the south east.

      Some of those fine Toshiba\Westinghouse AR1000 folk would be nice to keep us critters WARM! :-)

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    Yous AU guys; your beaches are covered in slightly radioactive, but not harmful ‘thorium’ Th90, long way from inert Fe56. Scoop that up by shovel or front-loader and you can deliver 1/2 the available power of the universe! Sprinkle in a wee bit of Plutonium PU238 to get fission started; and you are good to go. OTOH pumping hot liquid sodium uphill is not so easy! :-)
    All the best!-will-

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    Please consider Earth’s atmosphere that is ONLY constrained via gravitational ‘compression’ (the bottle is on the inside) As we go from surface to altitude, both pressure and density decrease! What is ill defined temperature? PV=nRT? With number of gas molecules (mols) remaining at 1 mol (Avogadro’s number (6×10^23) both pressure and density must decrease with altitude. But how? As pressure decreases from one atmosphere (density 22.4 liter/mole to 0.1 atmosphere (density 155 liter/mole); The atmospheric temperature MUST decrease by 9.8 °C per kilometer altitude; as we all have measured! This CO2 atmospheric WARMING is but the GRAND COLOSSAL SCAM! :-)
    All the best!-will-

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    el gordo

    Death by a thousand cuts.

    ‘The Government has announced it will freeze the ABC’s annual funding indexation for three years from July 2019, costing the organisation $84 million.

    ‘ABC Managing Director Michelle Guthrie said freezing the indexation amounted to cutting the broadcaster.

    ‘She said the $84 million cut would be compounded by a decision to cut $43 million in funding for news and current affairs.’

    ABC

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