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Satellite going AWOL at 28,000km/hr — tracking that Chinese stray machinery

The ESA blog has this trajectory “prediction” (below). Given that the window of reentry stretches across a day and the object in question is doing 28,000 km per hour, we can say for sure this will hit Earth. (Or rather, some small part of the satellite that survives the burning up process will touchdown somewhere). Two weeks ago Roy Spencer predicted it will probably hit “the ocean” and explained why it is so difficult to estimate the actual impact point. It is circling the Earth every 89 minutes.

UPDATE: This was China’s first space station. Launched in 2011. It has two sleeping spots for astronauts, and was visited twice.  View this as a mark of the rise of China. Though it also says something that China lost control/contact with it in March 2016. Tiangong-1 is only 8,500 kg. The Russian space station Mir was 120,000kg.

UPDATE #2: 3pm  Watch the LIVE track at N2Yo (overloaded)  or at SATview or  Heavens Above.

UPDATED #3: Narrowing the risk map.  Dr Marco Langbroek‏ 

Aerospace estimate is April 2 at 02:00 UTC ± 7   0:18 UTC ± 2 hours.  (Current UTC time is 5:10pm, so seven-ish hours to go, more or less.)  USA and Australia now unlikely. Twitter discussion is @Tiangong1
 
UPDATE #4: With the new estimates of UTC 0:30 (Aerospace) and UTC 0:56 (satview) it may have already come down, or not. Langbroek warns people not to rely on the tracking sites which are calculating the orbit path, but will continue to show the satellite for several hours after it is gone. Apparently actual data on the satellite is a bit rare! There are some other satellites which are watching for the infra red signature, but if Tiangong goes down in a remote location we may not know for a few hours. The absence of a sighting may be the first confirmation. People in Ukbekistan/Turkmenistan should have seen it in the last half hour? Does anyone there have twitter?
UPDATE #5: Rakesh‏ @densaer  At this point we can refer to #Tiangong1as “Schrodinger’s Space Station.” Since nobody knows whether it’s up or not at this point, it has entered a superposition only resolves when someone puts eyeballs or radar on it.
UPDATE #6: China’s official news and the US Joint Force Space Component Command are reporting that it went down at 0:15UTC over the Southern Pacific (about an hour ago). The crash zone was expected to cover 2,000km, but apparently none of the 7 billion people on Earth saw it. And if you thought you might get 30 minutes warning that space junk was about to hit your town…
Risk Map. Tiangong.

Possible last orbital routes are likely along these tracks.


Tiangong-1 altitude decay forecast as of 30 March Credit: ESAThis minute it is over IranJapan -  The Pacific — by the time you read this that will be irrelevant. See this map of the location LIVE. (Can people spot this going over?) It’s is 180km above Earth and according to Satview, doing 28,062km/hr.Reentry will take place anywhere between 43ºN and 43ºS. So most people on Earth could get lucky, but we can rule out those in Canada, Russia, and central-northern Europe. Predictions have changed in the last 24 hours because the Sun didn’t send a stream of high speed particles that was expected. (That would have increased the density of the upper atmosphere and slowed the satellite down faster.)
Map satellite impact zone

Useful sites:
h/t’s– thanks Yarpos and liberator
VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.5/10 (45 votes cast)
Satellite going AWOL at 28,000km/hr -- tracking that Chinese stray machinery, 9.5 out of 10 based on 45 ratings

114 comments to Satellite going AWOL at 28,000km/hr — tracking that Chinese stray machinery

  • #
    Sweet Old Bob

    Part of the sky is falling !
    Where is chicken little when we need her ?
    8>))

    50

  • #
    jopo

    Have I interpreted that Update correctly from the European Space Agency. The sun alters our atmospheres thickness?

    Thus perhaps inferring the duration and intensity of the solar stream over the particular location of our globes atmosphere will change the atmospheres density?

    20

    • #

      It would appear that is what they are suggesting. Luckily, these particle streams have zero effect on our climate according to expert climate models. ;-)

      A high-speed stream of particles from the Sun, which was expected to reach Earth and influence our planet’s geomagnetic field, did, in fact, not have any effect, and calmer space weather around Earth and its atmosphere is now expected in the coming days. This means that the density of the upper atmosphere, through which Tiangong-1 is moving, did not increase as predicted (which would have dragged the spacecraft down sooner) and hence the ESA Space Debris Office has adjusted the predicted decay rate.

      140

      • #
        sophocles

        …expert …. *cough*

        Is that where “X” is the unknown quantity and a “spurt” is a drip under pressure? :-)

        60

      • #
        jorgekafkazar

        I suspect these solar storms may change the ionosphere in such a way as to alter the blackbody temperature of the sky.

        “…some small part of the satellite that survives the burning up process will touchdown somewhere.”

        Will they go for two points after? Or just one?

        10

      • #
        Mal

        I am surprised that the obvious conclusion that the increased stream of particles from the sun was as a direct result of the increased CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere.
        In fact everything that happens in the universe is caused by man made CO2.

        60

        • #
          Terry

          “In fact everything that happens in the universe university is caused by man made CO2.”

          There. Fixed.

          20

    • #
      tom0mason

      jopo,
      “The sun alters our atmospheres thickness? “
      A new satellite was launched back in January to look at this very thing.

      See http://www.planetary.org/blogs/guest-blogs/2018/go-for-gold-ses-14.html

      60

    • #
  • #
    daw

    Well not yet anyway SSam or has it landed already?

    30

  • #
    TdeF

    A couple of tons of sheet metal. There should be nothing left. This is not a solid object but as light as they could make it. With my luck, it will hit my place and no one will know.

    20

    • #
      TdeF

      And a few batteries and compressed gas tanks and pumps. Maybe some chopsticks.

      31

      • #
        sophocles

        Tiangong-1 has been hyped up since it’s particularly heavy and dense, so large chunks of it are expected to survive to the ground. Plus, China lost the ability to control the station from Earth, so the country’s space agency can’t simply dump the station over open ocean.

        —from https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/29/17175864/china-space-station-tiangong-1-space-debris-track-fall

        More space junk. At least it’s only a small bolide, so it’s physical impact won’t have any climate impact :-)

        It’s passed to the Northeast of NZ when I looked about ten minutes ago, and looked down Raoul’s throat (an active volcano on Raoul island) in the Kermadec Islands group … oh what fun. Now we have “Made in China” raining down on us …

        I won’t be waiting up for it to drop.

        30

      • #
        jorgekafkazar

        Yer can prob’ly sell the chopsticks on the internerd, if you’ve a yen.

        60

    • #
      RAH

      It’s not just the mass that effects what will burn up but also the shape, the material that it’s made of, and where it’s located in the structure. Spherical stainless steel tanks seem to be some the most common debris which survive reentry. Specifically fabricated from materials to withstand high temps and pressures and located inside of shielding to help protect them so they have plenty of ablative material protecting them and a shape that minimizes resistance and dissipates heat well. I suspect these are the reasons why the threat of such tanks possibly surviving to release dangerous gases in the atmosphere is feared. However when I look at the pictures of the tanks that have survived reentry I notice that it seems the fittings on the tanks which project out from it are the weak point that are melted away and so I wonder if there really is much of a threat. Just the musings of a truck driver who really doesn’t know.

      70

      • #
        jorgekafkazar

        Muse on. Your cheering section will give you a hearty, “RAH, RAH!!”

        10

        • #
          RAH

          Time to muse has been severely limited of late. Out last week from Sunday afternoon through Thursday night. Hit the road again for a couple of days tomorrow morning headed for Eastern PA then up to North central PA then down to Dayton, OH before heading home. Looks like more winter driving in my near future with a pretty good band of snow forecast right across my track.

          40

          • #
            David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

            Safe travelling.
            Cheers,
            Dave B

            10

            • #
              RAH

              Thanks! Thermoses full. Bugout bag restocked with clean clothes with my Kindle, phone, and a ziplock bag of Rice Crispy treats my Granddaughter made with the help of her mother in the side pockets. Everything else I need already in the truck which is already full of fuel and DEF. Greased the fifth wheel when I got back in Thursday night. Really having a hard time believing that the car parts distribution center where I deliver is going to be open on late Easter Sunday afternoon, but that is what I’ve been told. So I will drive 5 hours to the last fuel point in eastern Ohio along I-70 and top off and take my required 30 minute break. Top off there because we aren’t allowed to refuel in Pennsylvania because it has the 2nd highest fuel prices in the lower 48. Only California has higher fuel prices. Then another 4 1/2 hours of driving and I’ll be at my destination in Pottstown, PA. Deliver, take a 10 hour break at the Coyote truck stop nearby, then head out for Ridgway, PA for two pick ups there that I deliver in Vandalia, OH (Dayton International Airport) Monday night. Take a 10 hour break there then take a load of auto parts back to the home terminal. Total miles about 1,230.

              80

              • #
                Kinky Keith

                We covered about 570 miles from Thursday to Monday afternoon.

                Newcastle, Wollongong, Canberra, Sydney, Newcastle.

                I only drove about half of it.

                Hope you got home safe.

                KK

                00

  • #

    UPDATE: This was China’s first space station. Launched in 2011. It has two sleeping spots for astronauts, and was visited twice. View this as a mark of the rise of China. Though it also says something that China lost control/contact with it in March 2016. Tiangong-1 is only 8,500 kg. The Russian space station Mir was 120,000kg.

    A bit more interesting info about the significance of this. Found at the Aerospace page.
    http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong-1-reentry/

    00

  • #

    http://www.n2yo.com/?s=37820

    UPDATE #2: 3pm DEST Eastern Australia may get a view of this in the next 20 minutes. Watch the LIVE track.

    Or not, without some assistance. Things need to be a Magnitude -4 or stronger to be seen in the middle of the day. ISS is about to pass over Perth soon, but the Mag is only -2.7 so it won’t be visible to the naked eye.

    40

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    At 47° N. lat., we are feeling left against the wall for this dance. At over 700 m. elevations we don’t have to worry about rising sea level. It’s been cool this winter, so a bit of temperature increase will be a good thing.
    Life is a bummer. Interesting times. Not.

    Glass of wine, and to bed.
    Happy Easter — if you care.

    20

    • #
      Clint

      At 47S we’re also off the likely imprint ‘footprint’. Dang. I was sooo hoping a random piece might make an emphatic point in the local council chamber of UNEP obsessed Divestment merchants and climatism adherents, all UN worshippers dragging their city to hell.
      On a more positive Easter note, the Pope says ‘Hell’ doesn’t exist. While UNlikely to be one of his doctrinally infallible utterances, one should still pay attention, n’est pas?

      30

  • #
    wal1957

    I’m surprised that none of FlimFlam’s mates haven’t claimed that Gerbil warming is now causing satellites to fall out of orbit!
    It would be par for the course.

    71

    • #
      wal1957

      I should proof read before I post. My grammar sucks!

      41

    • #
      sophocles

      That sounds like a good paper to write:

      Increased Orbital Satellite Suicide Rates from Atmospheric Drag after Unprecedented Thermal Expansion Caused by Anthropogenic Global Warming.

      or something similar. Key phrases to remember are 97% of Climate Scientists, Scientific Consensus, Unprecented rates of Expansion, etc, etc, …. well, you should know the keywords by now.
      That should get the pseudo-scientists all aTwitter. :-)

      10

  • #
  • #
    liberator

    The one site not mentioned in the first link to track this was Heavens Above.. http://www.heavens-above.com/GroundTrack.aspx

    40

    • #

      Thanks Liberator. Handy. The N2Yo feed was good this morning but is overloaded now. That’
      s a good link, added to the post.

      30

      • #
        GreatAuntJanet

        Lots of fascinating links with this great post – thank you very much Jo and all. Happy Easter!

        00

  • #
    Mark M

    What Should You Do If You Find a Piece of China’s Crashed Space Station?

    “Following the Challenger explosion [in 1986], there was a gentleman in the Coast Guard who kept a piece of debris for 25 years,” Pearlman said.

    “He was the cook onboard the ship working on the investigation.

    While his fellow sailors were out helping with recovering pieces, he decided to use a bucket to scoop up a tile floating in the water and keep it for himself.

    He put it away for 25 years and then listed it on eBay as ‘the ultimate Christmas gift.’”

    When NASA found out, the man was arrested. He was found guilty of theft of government property, and sentenced to two years probation.

    https://www.livescience.com/62112-what-if-you-find-china-space-station-debris.html

    40

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘Debris from satellites, space launches and the International Space Station enters the atmosphere every few months, but only one person is known to have been hit by any of it: American woman Lottie Williams, who was struck but not injured by a falling piece of a US Delta II rocket while exercising in an Oklahoma park in 1997.

    ‘Most famously, America’s 77-tonne Skylab crashed through the atmosphere in 1979, spreading pieces of wreckage near the southwestern Australia city of Perth — and we fined the US $400 for littering.’

    News.com

    30

  • #
    robert rosicka

    I wouldn’t be waiting up for it to crash it’s not losing altitude at the moment .

    10

    • #

      Was at 182km this morning apparently 175km up now.
      Estimated to crash in 1 day nine hours time. Or Monday morning on East Coast Australia time,/ late Sunday night US time.

      20

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Is anyone making book on where the pieces will fall?

        Or better yet, can I offer some ideas for where it should land? Naw, not with my luck. But I can sure think of a few places where a good hit would probably leave the rest of us better off. ;-)

        20

        • #
          Yonniestone

          Running a book sounds ok but verifying a win might be difficult, good hits would be certain places in Brussels, Hawaii or California.

          On a sadder note my wife has just left me, taking my satellite dish and Bob Marley collection: No woman, no Sky…………. :(

          30

          • #
            Annie

            Sorry to hear that Yonnie.

            31

          • #
            sophocles

            Sorry to hear about your loss Yonniestone. But don’t let it get to you too much: a new dish could give you improved reception—no corrosion, better alignment—but the Bob Marley collection could be more difficult to replace.

            10

      • #
        Mark D.

        It dropped 10km in about as many minutes I started watching at the new link. Me thinks it’s starting to fall faster. I claim 4:00 CST for re-entry

        10

  • #
    Greebo

    Gotta love the modelling.

    30

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    That China is struggling hard to gain a place in this world doesn’t bother me half as much as the fact that in space flying around us we have thousands of things lost by astronauts like nuts and bolts to larger pieces of junk, all of it a hazard to everything we’ve put up there.

    We need and orbital garbage collection machine ASAP. And there’s another good get rich opportunity if you can do it.

    50

    • #
      daw

      Just had a thought Roy. Does that ‘space junk’ have as many molecules in it as there are molecules of CO2 that they might capture some errant heat to offset the CO2 absorbed heat. (sarc off) Cheers

      00

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Off topic but the passing of one of the greats of science deserves mention on a science blog.

    The best tribute to Stephen Hawking I can come up with is 2 things…

    1. His magnificent courage and determination in the face of a terrible handicap — I can’t begin to accept my difficulties with the same grace and determination that he did. He’s a good example to try to live up to.

    2. The fact that I have never been able to comprehend a single bit of Hawking’s theorizing about the universe — he is light-years out in front of me and I can only stand in awe of what he’s left for science to grab a hold of and continue the work.

    Such men come along only rarely and when they’re gone we can only look for the next one, hoping to recognize him when we see him.

    May he rest in peace and fully restored to the health that was denied to him for so long.

    Both space stations and great men can fall. I think both need recognition but the death of Stephen Hawking needs a lot more recognition than a crashing space station.

    63

    • #
      Clint

      I’m afraid I found ‘A Brief History of Time’ turgid and dare one say, somewhat dull, when compared for example with ‘The Dancing Wu-Li Masters’ by Gary Zukav or ‘ E=mc2: A Biography of the World’s Most Famous Equation’ by David Bodanis.
      Hawking’s political pronouncements regarding the Israel-Palestinian problem were inseparable from the UN / institutionalised academia position with which he clearly identified. Likewise, his confabulated view of UN defined ‘climate change’ (better referred to as ‘climatism’) was a very poor showing of rigorous critical thought. Unfortunately, it joins his other catastrophe views, that the World will end in a century, be hit by a meteorite, cook itself under a mantle of CO2, and / or be taken over by AI ….largely all because POTUS Trump has pushed us ‘over the brink’ by withdrawing from the Paris Discord. Hawking became a parody of his status and credentials. Topping it all off as a deity in his own mind, he pronounced, ‘I know what happened before the Big-Bang’.

      His sad descent manifested a scientific status inversely related to his celebrity status, in the end little different from a faux-science assemblage of unknowns and unknowables. The ‘Drake equation’ captures that quite well. So did Hawking.

      Nevertheless, that he succeeded despite the enormous challenges of his condition is testament to his will and his resilience, and above all else, he was an exemplar of human adaptability, something he oddly lacked the insight to apply in a wider, global sense.

      121

      • #
        PeterS

        Add to that the ludicrous proposition spread by many of how he supposedly explained the Universe came out of “nothing” when in fact he was saying it came into existence as a result of gravity and quantum energy. Gravity and quantum energy are not nothing. Hawking was actually making the assumption gravity always existed, which of course is highly questionable.

        42

        • #
          robert rosicka

          Something that Hawking had never done is come up with something that’s provable which is probably why he jumped on the CAGW bandwagon .

          72

          • #
            PeterS

            Cosmologists are like that. It’s hard if not impossible to prove most things they come up with in cosmology. In fact some don’t rate cosmology as a science but more akin to philosophy. I tend to agree with that conclusion in certain circumstances only.

            10

        • #
          RicDre

          Ah, but where did the Gravity and Quantum Energy come from? Out of Nothing?

          30

      • #
        Mary E

        Hawking was a genius of a particular sort, a narrowly-focused and hyper-genius sort – he had a mind that could cut through physics like it was simple adding and subtracting, probably visualize the equations in his head and dance around the symbols and numbers at will. That doesn’t mean he was a genius at all things, or even adequate at all things. Politics was probably foreign to him, and he’d have to take the word of those he communicated with and do his best to parse what he saw/heard around him as far as intergovernmental relations, political candidates, anything UN or NATO, etc.

        Had he not been so trapped in his mind by his body, he might not have developed the genius he had to such a level – but he might have been a more well-rounded genius. Or not – we’ll never know.

        21

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Hawking was certainly outspoken. Celebrity status is a well known “brain softener” as I remember reading someone’s comments about fame in general. So we have a mixed bag and a big challenge to sort it all out.

        With only classical physics under my belt and that being a long time ago, I can only stand in awe of a man who could even achieve his status, much less back it up with a sound argument, which I take it that some of you think he couldn’t do. I can’t even understand some of the arguments about relativity that I’ve read, so I’m not a good judge.

        If I’ve learned anything at all from reading this blog it’s this, ask for the evidence and examine it yourself and see if it stands up against what you already understand before you believe. Einstein is still being questioned today and Hawking will be questioned the same way.

        In the meantime, if he carried our understanding of things around us even one small step forward he should be respected for that, even while we question whether other things he said are true.

        00

  • #
    RAH

    A fellow that knows a little something about this stuff, Dr. Roy Spencer, blogged on the reentry this morning:

    U.S. chance of Tiangong-1 sighting now less than 2%
    March 31st, 2018

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/
    He included this link:
    http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong-1-reentry/

    Looks like west Australia may have a shot.

    20

    • #
      Yonniestone

      It appears a bit unprofessional for China not confirming if they have lost control of the Tiangong-1 from last year until now, secrecy is one thing but when a space object made by your country hurtles out of control through numerous nations airspace’s impacting somewhere on earth wouldn’t disclosure be a good protocol to follow?

      There are probably global satellite rules or guidelines somewhere but I can’t find them, it’d have to’id occurred after the cold war for obvious reasons.

      50

  • #
    RAH

    Since we’re talking about things falling from space I have a question for you Aussies. In the US there are a couple guys that have made a pretty lucrative business out of finding, collecting, and selling meteorites in our deserts. Are their people that do the same there?

    20

    • #
      PeterS

      Nah! We are more interested in finding, collecting and selling black opals. Seriously I don’t think there is a lucrative business here but a list of Australian Meteorites can be found here : http://www.meteorites.com.au/collection/australian.html

      20

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Have to have a scrounge to find where I put them but on that list of meteorites is one listed as “unclassified Australian iron” , just west of William creek in South Australia I found a few of these .

        30

      • #
        Peter C

        A famous meteorite in relatively recent times was the Crabourne meteorite, which landed at Cranbourne 20km south east of Melbourne. A few decades before white settlement. About 15 pieces have been recovered, mostly by farmers and walkers noticing an unusual black rock, which was heavy when compared with surrounding rocks.

        I saw the largest piece in the Science Museum, London last year. I think that the Smithsonian has a large piece. There apparently one small piece still held in Cranbourne

        50

        • #
          Peter C

          There used to be a replica of the Croanbourne meteorites in a public park beside the south Gippsland highway at Cranbourne but it has been removed, I think for highway widening.

          The Cranbourne meteorite is commemorated by a piece of public art beside Peninsula link, which depicts a meteorite demolishing a power transmission tower. A vision of an unexpected Apocalypse.

          20

    • #
      James Murphy

      There is a network of cameras (the Desert Fireball Network) set up in Western and South Australia to track “shooting stars”.

      If the images show there is a chance of something making it to the ground, various academics go looking for them, with varying degrees of success.

      60

      • #
        RAH

        Based on a program I watched years ago these guys just go out in the deserts in the West and South West of the US and find them sitting on or very near the surface in most cases. Their equipment consists of 4 wheel drive pickup trucks, ATVs, and metal detectors. They systematically scour suitable areas walking or riding an ATV and know what to look for to discern a meteorite from the other stuff on the surface. Some of their finds are sold to NASA and various academic institutes and others are sold to private collectors, museums, etc. The research value of the various types meteorites varies a great deal with the rarest types being quite valuable.

        30

  • #
    Another Ian

    Remember Spike Milligan’s declaration at the time of Skylab?

    00

    • #
      John F. Hultquist

      David Mulligan said I’m having a do over.
      Spike Milligan, on the other hand said something like “It’s over.”
      That’s just a guess. I’ve heard of Spike Lee, though.

      10

    • #
      Another Ian

      The threat was about what would happen if any piece of Skylab landed on his mother’s dunny in Woy Woy

      I can’t find the exact quote

      10

    • #

      “The best cure for seasickness is to sit under a tree!” – Spike Milligan.

      Tony.

      50

  • #
    tom0mason

    And a feel good animation from ESA how everything was expected to be fine!

    https://content.jwplatform.com/players/oVpj3BHz.html

    10

  • #
    Another Ian

    Some O/T reading for between laps

    “Huffington Post has noticed that many university academics are utter climate hypocrites, that many of them rate their personal importance by how many professional air miles they can accumulate every year.”

    More at

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/01/huffpost-notices-academic-climate-hypocrisy/

    30

  • #
    Mark D.

    Between The Heavens Above and Satview the location plot of Tiangong-1 is several thousand miles different. Which is correct?

    Or is this a conspiracy……..

    10

  • #

    Post updated. The potential crash sites have narrowed, but there is only 9 hours (plus or minus 7 hours) to go.

    USA and Australia are now ruled out. The satellite has done it’s last flyby’s over them (probably). Altitude is dropping more quickly. 151km up now.

    See the map added to the top of the post.

    Mark, I have found the two sites to be not bad. Use NY20 as well. They need updating frequently. But even a few minutes matters a lot at 28,000km/h

    50

    • #
      GD

      Well done, Jo Nova, with your reporting on the Chinese satellite. The Australian is only now ‘breaking’ the story.

      7:15AM
      An out of control Chinese space laboratory is set to meet a fiery end within hours, and Australia is in the firing line.

      In this picture released by Fraunhofer Institute FHR, the shape of China’s falling space station Tiangong-1 can be seen in this radar image from the Fraunhofer Institute for High-Frequency Physics and Radar Techniques near Bonn, Germany. In the next few days, the unoccupied Chinese space station, Tiangong-1, is expected to reenter the atmosphere following the end of its operational life. Most of the craft should burn up. (Fraunhofer Institute FHR via AP)
      Falling space lab heads our way

      10

  • #

    UPDATED already –Aerospace now saying UTC 0:18. So seven hours (or five to nine hours).
    http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong-1-reentry/

    30

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    This is an April Fools joke.
    Everything we think we know about this was set up in the back lot of an unused factory in Guangzhou.

    Cheers!
    Oh. Happy Easter.

    31

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Yep I’m with you I think it is an April fool joke the satellite keeps going up again .

      10

      • #
        Yonniestone

        Maybe China still has some control of the boosters and won’t let on?

        If its a joke its a pretty elaborate one.

        20

  • #
    RickWill

    Looks like reentry at 10:30am AEST Monday in the South Pacific off South America.

    20

  • #

    UPDATE #4: With the new estimates of UTC 0:30 (Aerospace) and UTC 0:56 (satview) it may have already come down, or not. Langbroek warns people not to rely on the tracking sites which are calculating the orbit path, but will continue to show the satellite for several hours after it is gone. Apparently actual data on the satellite is a bit rare! There are some other satellites which are watching for the infra red signature, but if Tiangong goes down in a remote location we may not know for a few hours. The absence of a sighting may be the first confirmation. People in Ukbekistan/Turkmenistan should have seen it in the last half hour? Does anyone there have twitter?

    UPDATE #5: Rakesh‏ @densaer At this point we can refer to #Tiangong1 as “Schrodinger’s Space Station.” Since nobody knows whether it’s up or not at this point, it has entered a superposition only resolves when someone puts eyeballs or radar on it.

    30

    • #
      Timo Soren

      I was watching the n2yo site, not realizing it was orbital calculating, thought it actually ‘tracked them’ somehow.
      At about 8:43 CST or 00:43 UTC n2yo announced it wasn’t in it orbital path anymore.

      When I check the news it had already announced it down. I felt kinda weird for having watch the orbital path
      on n2yo for 1/2 when it wasn’t there!

      Oh well.

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    UPDATE #6: China’s official news and the US Joint Force Space Component Command are reporting that it went down at 0:15UTC over the Southern Pacific (about an hour ago). The crash zone was expected to cover 2,000km, but apparently none of the 7 billion people on Earth saw it. And if you thought you might get 30 minutes warning that space junk was about to hit your town…

    https://twitter.com/18SPCS/status/980614448745406465

    RickWill and Chris in Harvey Bay, you beat me…

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      Yonniestone

      Flat earthers are upset it landed in water and not near the 150 ft Antarctic ice wall surrounding the disc, the Antarctic Alliance could’ve bee exposed!

      Usually there’s a fair amount of media interest in such events but a bit quiet on this one.

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    robert rosicka

    So it has crashed ? My site is saying it’s at 132 kilometres but as Jo says above it is behind , do have a contact in that area I will see if he has seen or heard anything .

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    robert rosicka

    Contact from Kazakhstan said the emergency services were tight lipped for some reason but nothing unusual for them but no sighting .

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      Kinky Keith

      Robert, don’t speak like that about Kazakhstan; their schoolchildren are beating Australia in the international academic rankings.

      Perhaps Kazakhstani children have more humility and respect for their teachers than their Australian counterparts.

      Whatever, here in Australia we have lost the plot and there is only one solution: to elect the right leaders.

      KK

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    angry

    What about the Hydrazine pollution from the fuel tanks ????

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