JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

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Weekend Unthreaded, 9.3 out of 10 based on 13 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/yaau45vd

89 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #
    Yonniestone

    I’d like to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and give my appreciation to all that make this place a refuge for sanity in a world going askew.

    Jo, David and family may our love drive you on to even greater things.

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    • #
      Annie

      Seconded. A big thankyou from my husband and me…you are an encouragement in this difficult lunatic world.
      Wishing you and your family and all who frequent this blog a truly Happy Christmas.
      We are looking forward to our service of Nine Lessons and Carols this morning.

      130

  • #

    Merry Christmas to all the skeps. And even to the Holocene deniers.

    130

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    Merry Christmas to all, even those trolls who lurk not daring to come out into the open.

    121

  • #
    David Maddison

    The Twelve Days of Glibal Warming

    https://youtu.be/JmPSUMBrJoI

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  • #
    Graeme No.3

    O/T from the season of good will – I think I can foresee the response by various governments to any electricity shortfalls. On hot days when the wind turbines are useless they will institute rolling blackouts rather than risking a State wide one as SA had. So an hour here, and hour there for 6 to 10 suburbs will spread the inconvenience thinner and, they hope, avoid the general public getting annoyed enough to want to string them up from the lampposts.
    The good news is that should this happen there will be a collapse in support for renewables – clean expensive and some of the time is not a good selling point, and even many of our current lot of politicians will grasp that. And how many of those innercity greens have backup generators? Let us hope that things look a lot different by this time next year.

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    • #
      Peter C

      You are probably right Graeme No.3

      A difficulty will be to clearly establish, in the minds of the public, the connection between investment in rewnewable electricity sources and the subsequent shortages, blackouts and skyrocketing price increases.

      Politicians, ABC and Fairfax press are all in full denial of that reality. Even the journos in the Australian are divided on the subject. NGOs, Environmental groups, Government departments, Universities and Science academies also entirely against us.

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    • #
      John F. Hultquist

      @ Graeme No.3 – - – 7:10
      an hour here, and hour there

      We have an extra freezer. It is electric, and has about 20 2-liter bottles of filtered water. The mass of ice is a safety buffer for power outages. Even ice cream will stay frozen for an hour. Many frozen things will last a day or more, and the more dense (meats versus bread, say) items add to that store of cold. More full, the better. Less opening, the better.
      Knowing a shutdown is coming, one could go to a store and buy “dry ice” but its warming produces CO2 gas that displaces O2 – - so, be careful of that and provide ventilation.

      80

  • #
    Robber

    Please use more electricity as you celebrate Christmas. As Tony has predicted, demand has dropped with so many people having holidays. AEMO’s forecast peak for Christmas day is only 20 GW (20,000 MW), and minimum is only 16 GW. On a normal day the peak is around 27 GW, and minimum 18 GW.
    AEMO’s response: An AEMO Intervention Event has been implemented by issuing directions to maintain the power system in a secure operating state. The AEMO Intervention Event commenced in the 1430 hrs 23/12/2017 dispatch interval and is forecast to apply until 0800 hrs 27/12/2017. AEMO declares all dispatch intervals during the AEMO Intervention Event to be intervention price dispatch intervals. The direction is expected to affect dispatch quantities for intervention pricing purposes from the 0130 hrs dispatch interval on 24/12/2017.

    What I think it means is that AEMO is instructing some generators to curtail production in order to maintain a stable grid. It does appear that Pelican Point in SA, a baseload gas generator, halved production during the night.

    As an aside, on Christmas day, SA and Tas each have an electricity demand of about 1.1 GW, yet SA’s population is 3 times Tassie’s.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Robber:

      3 possible solutions;
      First – Croweaters use gas fired BBQs.
      Second – Years of higher prices have made Croweaters chary of using electricity.
      Third – Max. temperatures in Adelaide are forecast to be 8℃ higher today and tomorrow than in Hobart.

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    • #
      Bruce J

      Fourth, much of the SA population is off grid in remote areas, while most Tas is on grid.

      60

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Bruce J

        You jest? 3,667 out of 1.667 million or 0.2%.

        41

      • #
        RickWill

        The total grid demand is south Australia at 1pm was 1231MW. Of that 491MW was coming from small scale solar. So actual large scale generation required was only 740MW. In round numbers there was 530 from gas 530 from wind and SA was sending 315MW to Victoria.

        Temperature was a mild 23C so not much need for air-conditioning.

        60

  • #
    el gordo

    A long winded post by Nic Lewis over at Judith Curry’s blog, a critique of some paper.

    The only reason I’m putting it up is for the comments.

    https://judithcurry.com/2017/12/15/brown-and-caldeira-a-closer-look-shows-global-warming-will-not-be-greater-than-we-thought/

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    • #
      TedM

      Had a look at the link elgordo. Harry twinotter demonstrating his ignnorance about anything technical.

      85

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        TedM:

        you mustn’t judge Harry too harshly. He didn’t do well at school and his marks weren’t good enough for him to aspire to Science. He consulted the Careers Advisor as to whether he should risk going to the Northern Oregon University of Sustainable Ecology when he noticed the Advisor writing BA on the Notes, until he was called away. Harry could read this upside down (in fact he gets most things he reads upside down) and he went on to do an Arts Degree, and from there a job at whatever College he infests. His self esteem soared and he likes to patronise sceptics because he has a memorised a few items, which he trots out ad nauseam.
        It’s a pity he never found out B-A stood for Brains Absent.

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      • #
        AndyG55

        Poor Harry Twotter, he gets such a spanking, and put back in his box very quickly when he does his occasional fly-by generic AGW comment.

        Brain-washed until all he has left is fetid green sludge.

        84

        • #
          el gordo

          Harry splits hairs and doesn’t seem to realise who he is dealing with.

          Anyway, I thought it amusing to see a lukewarmer and a warmist having a falling out.

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          • #
            TedM

            “and doesn’t seem to realise who he is dealing with.”

            Yes you’re right el gordo, and not just Jo and David. If he took the time to read many of the comments posted on this site he would be very wary of what he says, as many of the bloggers are clearly well accredited. Others are also lay people but with an excellent background in science, in many cases a lifelong interest in science.

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  • #
    William

    Merry Christmas and a very happy New Year to all. I enjoy my visits to Jo’s site and thank her, and you all for your educational, interesting and humorous posts. As a Christmas present from the science *cough* that keeps on giving-

    Cheers!

    150

  • #
    pat

    Merry Christmas and a very happy New Year to Jo and family, including all who visit here.

    a tale to tell:

    the deeper CNN sinks into the FakeNewsSwamp, the more I hear theirABC, especially ABC News Radio, using CNN clips when covering Trump Admin news.

    yesterday it was this toxic piece by CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, ostensibly a “hard-hitting” (listen to her voice) interview with co-author/ghostwriter? of Trump’s Art of the Deal, the Trump-hating/media darling Tony Schwartz.

    for some reason, Amanpour brings him on to talk about Trump’s Tax Reform Bill! yes, that makes sense.

    Schwartz says Tax Bill is an assault on democracy.

    Schwartz says Trump won’t last through 2018, thought he’d be out sooner. Mueller will indict President, at minimum on obstruction of justice…but the array of charges will be enormous. hoping a catastrophe doesn’t happen before Trump’s presidency ends.

    VIDEO: 10mins03secs: 21 Dec: CNN: Amanpour: Trump’s ghostwriter: He’s never brooked dissent
    Hearing Vice President Pence and Republicans heap praise on President Trump yesterday ***”makes me want to vomit,” says Tony Schwartz.
    http://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/12/21/intv-amanpour-tony-schwartz.cnn/video/playlists/amanpour/

    more to come.

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    • #
      pat

      Amanpour – like the rest of the FakeNewsMSM Swamp – know Schwartz has form:

      Jul 2016: NPR: ‘Art Of The Deal’ Ghostwriter On Why Trump Should Not Be President

      Jul 2016: NYT: ‘I Feel a Deep Sense of Remorse,’ Donald Trump’s Ghostwriter Says

      Jul 2016: Guardian: Art of the Deal co-writer says Trump could ‘end civilisation’ if elected

      Oct 2016: Guardian: Donald Trump’s ghostwriter on being the ‘Dr Frankenstein’ who made a monster
      Tony Schwartz wrote? The Art of the Deal, the book that created the Trump myth. As the race for the White House draws to a close, he is looking on in horror

      Oct 2016: Express: BBC Newsnight: Trump ghostwriter brands businessman a ‘sociopath’

      Oct 2016: Tony Schwartz: ‘If Trump wins I’ll leave US’

      Oct 2016: Daily Mail: ‘Please God don’t give this man the nuclear codes’: ‘Ghostwriter’ of Art of the Deal

      Nov 2016: BBC: I ghost-wrote The Art of the Deal with Donald Trump
      “It makes me ill that people would want to read it.”

      March 2017: MSN.com: Tony Schwartz: Trump ‘Has Moved To A Darker Place’

      May 2017: Yahoo7: Donald Trump ‘will find a way to resign’, says president’s ghostwriter

      Aug 2017: Australian: Trump ghostwriter predicts President will resign

      Aug 2017: NYT: The Week When President Trump Resigned
      As the worst week in a cursed presidency wound down, I spotted more and more forecasts that Donald Trump would resign, including from Tony Schwartz…

      Nov 2017: Newsweek: Trump’s Mental Health Questioned by White House Staff, ‘Art of the Deal’ Writer says

      Dec 2017: WaPo: TONY SCHWARTZ: Trump always lashes out when he’s cornered. He told me so years ago

      18 May: SMH: from WaPo: Tony Schwartz: I wrote The Art of the Deal with Donald Trump. His self-sabotage is rooted in his past
      (Schwartz is the chief executive officer of the ***Energy Project, which helps companies tap more of people’s capacity by better meeting their core needs so they can perform more sustainably)
      Why does Donald Trump behave in the dangerous and seemingly self-destructive ways he does?…

      Trump was equally clear with me that he didn’t value – nor even necessarily recognise – the qualities that tend to emerge as people grow more secure, such as empathy, generosity, reflectiveness, the capacity to delay gratification or, above all, a conscience, an inner sense of right and wrong. Trump simply didn’t traffic in emotions or interest in others. The life he lived was all transactional, all the time. Having never expanded his emotional, intellectual or moral universe, he has his story down, and he’s sticking to it.
      A key part of that story is that facts are whatever Trump deems them to be on any given day…

      From the very first time I interviewed him in his office in Trump Tower in 1985, the image I had of Trump was that of a black hole. Whatever goes in quickly disappears without a trace. Nothing sustains…

      In neurochemical terms, when he feels threatened or thwarted, Trump moves into fight-or-flight mode. His amygdala gets triggered, his hypothalamic-adrenal-pituitary axis activates, and his prefrontal cortex – the part of the brain that makes us capable of rationality and reflection – shuts down. He reacts rather than reflects, and damn the consequences. This is what makes his access to the nuclear codes so dangerous and frightening…
      http://www.smh.com.au/world/i-wrote-the-art-of-the-deal-with-donald-trump-his-selfsabotage-is-rooted-in-his-past-20170517-gw7ex8.html

      ***more to come on The Energy Project.

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      • #
        pat

        Wikipedia: Tony Schwartz (author)
        Schwartz founded ***The Energy Project in 2003 and launched The Energy Project Europe in 2005, with headquarters outside London…
        Schwartz began writing a bi-weekly column for The New York Times financial news report, DealBook, titled Life@Work in May 2013. In 2014, Schwartz co-wrote the article “Why You Hate Work” with Georgetown University McDonough School of Business Associate Professor, Christine Porath about a collaboration between Harvard Business Review and The Energy Project to find out what makes people productive and engaged at work.
        In July 2016, Schwartz was the subject of an article in The New Yorker in which he describes Donald Trump, who was running for President of the United States at the time, highly unfavorably, and how he came to regret writing The Art of the Deal. Schwartz repeated his criticism on Good Morning America, saying he “put lipstick on a pig”, and again on Real Time with Bill Maher. In August 2017, Schwartz predicted Trump would resign, saying “Trump’s presidency is effectively over. Would be amazed if he survives till end of the year. More likely resigns by fall, if not sooner.”

        from google result, as Professional LinkedIn page requires membership to view -

        LinkedIn: Tony Schwartz
        I am the founder and CEO of The Energy Project, which helps companies fuel sustainable high performance by better meeting the needs of their employees. We have offices on three continents – North America (New York), Europe (London and Amsterdam) and ***Australia (Melbourne).

        ***The Energy Project Australia: Our Team
        #1: Andrew Nance
        Andrew is one of South Australia’s most widely experienced and well respected energy specialists. Starting as a trainee engineer with the Electricity Trust of South Australia at Torrens Island Power Station in 1987, a degree in Electrical Engineering (UniSA Hons) was followed by 10 years of hands-on work with the power systems of the Collins Class Submarine fleet.

        Andrew has since served as the Technical Director of the South Australian Government’s Sustainability and Climate Change Division, spent a decade advising the South Australian Council of Social Service (SACOSS), served on the Australian Energy Market Commission’s Reliability Panel and, since 2016, has sat on the Australian Energy Regulator’s Consumer Challenge Panel.

        This experience is now being applied to managing risk and compliance of Embedded Networks around Australia.
        http://www.energyproject.com.au/our-team/

        The Energy Project Australia – About Us
        Established in 2011, The Energy Project differentiates itself from other consulting firms by combining up to date energy policy and regulatory analysis with extensive project implementation experience.

        The Energy Project’s founders have extensive industry experience in the solar energy, energy efficiency and energy policy fields after having each run successful businesses in these areas. We also have a wide network of associates – from researchers to equipment manufacturers and installers – that can be accessed for specific issues. This practical industry knowledge informs the advice we provide and ensures that advice is pragmatic, targeted and readily implemented.

        LinkedIn: Andrew Nance
        Current: Director at The Energy Project Pty Ltd, Adelaide, Australia; October 2011 – Present
        Previous:
        St Kitts Associates,
        Department of Premier and Cabinet (SA) March 2007 – October 2008
        Sustainable Focus Pty Ltd March 2004 – March 2007
        Education
        University College London School of Energy & Resources, Australia

        Coordinator, Conservation Council of South Australia
        October 2002 – April 2005

        Energy Consultant, AGL South Australia
        March 2002 – October 2002
        https://au.linkedin.com/in/ajnance

        hmmmmm!

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        • #
          pat

          reply in moderation re: Tony Schwartz’s Australian Energy Project office.

          41

          • #
            pat

            SACOSS (South Australian Council of Social Service):
            Justice, Opportunity and Shared Wealth for all South Australians
            Speakers:
            Lynne Chester, University of Sydney
            Lynne Chester, an economist, is an energy researcher at the University of Sydney. Previously she has held positions at the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy, Curtin University, and the University of New South Wales.
            She has written extensively on the Australian electricity sector, restructuring of energy markets and energy security. Her current research focus includes the economic-energy-environment relation, electricity generation capacity, household energy affordability, electricity and carbon derivatives, and markets for goods and services previously provided direct by government…

            (SCROLL DOWN) Andrew Nance, St Kitts Associates
            Andrew Nance is an Electrical Engineer that has been involved with the SACOSS energy program in various roles since 2002…
            Download Andrew’s presentation here (LINK)

            Finding a better deal? by Andrew Nance, The Energy Project includes:
            Behind the Meter
            • The new frontier of competition:
            • Solar with and without storage being sold directly to customers as a ‘c/kWh’ product
            • in direct competition to the ‘old energy’ model of centralised generation bidding into the compulsory wholesale pool for distribution via the network …
            • Significant growth forecast – expecting ‘free electricity’ style offers … but also the big retailers (AGL, Origin …)
            https://www.sacoss.org.au/speakers-0

            Nance spoke at the following. worth checking this lengthy list of otherwise “faceless” bureaucrats & other stakeholders who work behind the scenes to impose CAGW policies on the population at large:

            Prosperity in a changing climate: 23 & 24 November 2017, Adelaide, SA
            A Symposium for practitioners, experts and officials looking to grow the Australian sector for climate change services and explore international opportunities
            Speakers:
            Akhil Abraham, Senior Policy Adviser, British High Commission
            Akhil Abraham is a senior policy adviser at the British High Commission in Canberra. He covers political and global issues on behalf of the UK, leading on climate change diplomacy and multilateral development…
            Akhil has a Bachelor of Laws and a Bachelor of Commerce from the University of Sydney…

            Sam Crafter, Executive Director, Energy Implementation Taskforce
            Department of Premier and Cabinet, SA
            Sam has had an extensive career in public affairs, communications and reputation management in both the public and private sector. He is currently the Executive Director, managing the implementation of the South Australian Government’s Energy Plan. Immediately prior to this he was the Principal Economic Adviser to the South Australian Premier, after having spent 7 years working with Santos in Adelaide, Brisbane and New South Wales. Prior to joining Santos he spent 8 years working in State and Federal Government including time as Chief of Staff to the Minister for Education…

            Tom Davies, Chairman and Founding Director, Edge Consulting
            Tom is the Chairman and a Founding Director of Edge Environment. Tom has been working with the Insurance Council of Australia for 7 years on the Resilience Program. The objective of this work is to drive a more resilient built environment in order to address insurance affordability in a future of increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events…

            Crystal Fleming, General Manager, Investor Group on Climate Change
            Crystal managed the early establishment of the Carbon Disclosure Project in Australia and New Zealand Crystal previously worked at the NSW Attorney General’s Department; the Centre for Research Management, National Health and Medical Research Council; and Creative Executive and Business Risk Consultants…

            ***Andrew Nance, The Energy Project
            (ONE OF A FEW LISTED WITHOUT DESCRIPTION)

            Matthew Shorten, Managing Director, Balance Carbon

            Mark Stafford Smith, Chief Coordinating Scientist, Adaptation, CSIRO
            Dr Mark Stafford Smith is based in Canberra, Australia, and contributes to Adaptation Research in CSIRO. He interacts regularly with national and international policy issues around adaptation. Since 2013 he has been Chair of the inaugural Science Committee for Future Earth, which aims to help coordinate research towards global sustainability worldwide…
            https://www.eiseverywhere.com/ehome/280671/633970/

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      • #
        Will Janoschka

        May 2017: Yahoo7: Donald Trump ‘will find a way to resign’, says president’s ghostwriter Aug 2017: Australian: Trump ghostwriter predicts President will resign Aug 2017: NYT: The Week When President Trump Resigned

        P45 may very well ‘resign’ ’bout March 2021! WHY NOT? Hi time the rest of the ‘Dynasty’ start earning their keep! Pence with some ‘help’, can keep it going through 2032 if need be! :-)

        10

  • #
    Mark M

    Xmas special!

    Further evidence a carbon (sic) tax can neither stop/prevent/overcome, nor alter the future climate from changing …

    1990: Finland introduced the world’s first carbon tax-

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/factbox-carbon-tax-around-the-world

    Dec 23, 2017: “In northern Finland, tourism is a cornerstone of the regional economy, but warming temperatures are beginning to threaten its “winter wonderland” image”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-lapland-santa-claus-father-christmas-reindeer-global-warming-a8113041.html
    . . .
    Truth: Santa is safe.

    22 Dec, 2017:

    “Great news for visitors – Finland is set to bask in a blanket of snow for Christmas, with most of the country enjoying a traditional white yuletide”

    https://twitter.com/DiscoverFinland/status/944218372451065856

    Have a Merry Christmas!

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  • #
    pat

    the more conservative alternative to Drudge Report. news you won’t hear on theirABC:

    Liberty Daily
    https://thelibertydaily.com/

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  • #
    pat

    time for a laugh:

    22 Dec: Newsweek: Which White Christmas Will Be Our Last? Snow In December May Soon Be History—Depending Where You Live
    By Sydney Pereira
    The chances of a white Christmas across the U.S. and even around the world have been well documented based on historical weather data. But as global temperatures rise due to climate change, snow on Christmas Day could increasingly become a rarity—even a distant memory…
    To better understand the strange ways climate change will affect snow around the world, Newsweek spoke with Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information…

    Q: Does that mean a white Christmas will be rarer?
    A: That is difficult to say. It’s really hard to predict how it’s going to be at certain times of the year or on certain days of the year—like Christmas, for example. In general, I would say yes, over time you would tend to see that. With respect to climate change, you just want to look at the general patterns over time. You look at generally what’s happening, but you can’t predict exactly what’s going to happen in a single place, on a single day, at a single time. We’ll never be able to predict that. You still may see a lot of snow in January and February just because they happen to be the coldest months, but even if it warmed 3 or 4 degrees over time, it could still be in the 20’s somewhere. It just depends where you are and what’s happening exactly…

    Q: In Alaska, a recent study found snowfall has increased, and it’s likely due to warmer oceans in the Pacific. Could you explain how a warmer climate might mean more snow in some places?
    A: It’s not straightforward. A lot of people think about global warming happening consistently at the same pace, in the same way, all across the world. And that’s just not the way that it’s going to happen. There’s going to be changes in circulation patterns from warming oceans, and warming air is going to hold more moisture, so you’re going to see more snow in areas like Alaska…

    Q: When will the effects of climate change become more obvious?​A: Over time, there will be direct impacts—especially for the people living out West when the snowpack is gone. When sea levels rise, which will continue to happen, infrastructure in coastal areas will be damaged. Roads will be flooded. People’s homes will be flooded. We are going to see those impacts over time. Are you going to see those impacts in Iowa? No, you may not…
    http://www.newsweek.com/which-white-christmas-will-be-our-last-snow-december-may-soon-be-history-756921

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  • #
    pat

    23 Dec: UK Daiy Star: ICE AGE EARTH: Global FREEZE lasting 120 YEARS threatens ‘more intense’ winters from 2019
    A GLOBAL cool down lasting 120 years will trigger “more intense” winters that threaten months of freezing temperatures and snow “within a few years”, climate scientists have warned.
    by Joshua Nevett
    During the first two weeks of winter, the UK was crippled by an onslaught of cold snaps that brought heavy snow, hazardous ice and sub-zero temperatures virtually everywhere…

    In the coming years, David Dilley, CEO of Global Weather Oscillations, believes winters will only become “more intense” in the UK due to a combination of “dangerous” climate factors.
    His research shows that by 2019, Earth will enter a natural 120-year cooling cycle (LINK) that happens roughly every 230 years, bucking the warming trend.
    Predictions of low solar activity for 33 years between 2020 and 2053 are also predicted to send thermometers plummeting, according to his research…

    In order to prevent catastrophic global warming, almost every country has signed up to a United Nations climate pact, whose aim is to keep global temperatures below 2C.
    But Dilley, a former NOAA meteorologist, argues that Earth is “coming off” a 230-year global warming cycle and moving on to a 120-year cooling period…
    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/667148/climate-change-uk-weather-forecast-global-freeze-ice-age-earth-2019

    Winter Storm Ethan Named: Another Round of Snow From the Rockies to the Midwest This Weekend Could Become a Christmas Day Northeast Snowstorm
    The Weather Channel-2 hours ago
    Winter Storm Ethan is expected to become a Christmas Day snowstorm for parts of the Northeast, immediately following the wintry mess from Winter Storm Dylan. Ethan will also spread a swath of snow from the Rockies to the Plains and Midwest through Christmas Eve, potentially snarling holiday travel in some areas.
    Interestingly, this could be the first Christmas Day snowfall of at least 1 inch in Boston in 15 years. In records dating to 1891, that has only happened seven times in the city of Boston.

    Elderly woman found dead in snow as cold front sweeps Greece
    Xinhua-7 hours ago
    ATHENS, Dec. 23 (Xinhua) — An elderly woman was found dead in snow on Saturday, and an aground freighter was rescued in the Agean Sea, as a cold front sweeps across Greece

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  • #
    Greg in NZ

    Apart from the third-rate jingo-lingo-Kiwiisms in the header, this anonymous editorial from NZ’s arch-Warmie national PR paper invents a completely new meteorological/weather terminology: a ™wet front™. Wiping away mental images of bawdy late-night pub scenes from my yoof, I realised the word ‘cold’ has now been eradicated from the lexicon of Klimate Kargo Kult-speak.

    In other news: Snow to 2,000 metres on Christmas Day for Queenstown Lakes (South Island, NZ) region, lowering to 1,400 m on Boxing Day. How come not one of the many climate experts, from the religion of settled science, predicted this?

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11965256

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  • #
    pat

    true it’s winter, but definitely some global warming wouldn’t go amiss:

    22 Dec: LA Times: AP: Freezing temperatures come to parts of California
    Freeze warnings blanket the San Joaquin Valley and the coast from north of San Francisco Bay down through Monterey County.
    Frost advisories are posted along the Central Coast and in interior areas south and east of Los Angeles…

    23 Dec: CBC: ‘Winter wonderland’ in store for Christmas, special weather statement says
    Airlines at Toronto Pearson and Billy Bishop airports have issued travel advisories to passengers
    “While the winter wonderland will be lovely to see come Christmas Day, it could contribute to challenging travelling conditions for those visiting family and friends over the holidays,” the weather statement said…
    Meanwhile, a cold front is expected to follow the Christmas snow.
    According to Environment Canada, temperatures will hover around -3 or -4 C throughout the weekend and Monday. Things get markedly colder before the new year, with daily highs in the -8 and -9 C range…

    22 Dec: DailyRecord: Scotland set for Hogmanay Snowmageddon as Icelandic blast threatens revellers’ New Year plans
    As wind and freezing temperatures come in eastwards from Iceland towards the UK, Scotland is set for a snowy start to 2018.
    By Danya Bazaraa & Nina Glencross
    The icy blast has been triggered by a North Atlantic Oscillation weather phenomenon, which transports wind and chilly temperatures eastwards from Iceland towards the UK…

    meanwhile:

    22 Dec: Deutsche Welle: Europe’s shocking failure to act on climate
    The European Union has agreed to emission reduction targets for 2030. But far from fulfilling its duties under the Paris Agreement, environmentalists say Europe has abdicated its role as a climate leader.
    by Gero Rueter, Ruby Russell
    Europe has a history of progressive environmental legislation, and it political leaders often position themselves as climate heroes. Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron appears to have moved in on German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s traditional territory as international climate champion, with public displays of support for climate science and attacks on US President Donald Trump’s regressive climate policies.

    But behind the bravado, is Europe doing enough to cut emissions? The short answer, environmentalists say, is no.
    “Europe is so divided on climate issues, it doesn’t play that leadership role any more,” Wendel Trio, director of Climate Action Network Europe, told DW…

    For example, the Energy Union would allow capacity payments to coal-fired powered stations to ensure energy security until 2035 — by which time environmentalist agree we should have ditched coal altogether, if we’re to uphold the Paris goals.
    “European Union legislation would allow countries to continue subsidizing coal power plants — which contradicts not only the Paris Agreement, but also previous commitments to phase fossil fuel subsidies,” Trio pointed out…

    But with the agreements on the table, Anton Lazarus of the European Environmental Bureau says Europe still looks set to fall short of the action needed to live up to its supposed role as a climate pioneer.
    “You have governments going to the One Planet Summit and talking the talk on climate action,” he told DW. “Now, it’s really a question of closing this gap between rhetoric and action.
    “And this energy package was a golden opportunity to do that that, appears to be being missed before our eyes. And it’s just a very disappointing end to the year.”
    http://www.dw.com/en/europes-shocking-failure-to-act-on-climate/a-41905403

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    • #
      pat

      talk about delusional! Communist Chinese Govt mouthpiece, Global Times, with a piece in praise of a ficticious ETS. the EU delegation to China “contributed” to the article!

      24 Dec: Global Times: EU welcomes launch of China’s carbon market
      Welcoming the announcement, Climate Action and Energy Commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete said, “As the US government turns its back on the fight against climate change, China, the EU and many others are forging ahead with robust climate policies and measures. This announcement sends a very strong signal – the world is changing with new, broad climate leadership. With both the EU and China committed to emissions trading, two major international players are championing carbon markets to meet their commitments under the Paris Agreement and curb emissions cost-effectively.”…

      China’s system will help the country – the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions – to mitigate emissions cost-effectively. The EU is supporting China to establish and develop its own system. A new EU-China cooperation project on emissions trading started just a few weeks ago.

      The more than $10 million project will run over a period of three years. The project will enhance EU-China cooperation on emissions trading and coincides with the launch of China’s nationwide carbon market. It will build on the existing cooperation project that started in 2014 and support the development of emissions trading capacity in China.

      ***The EU Delegation to China contributed to this story
      http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1081725.shtml

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    pat

    ***Developed in collaboration with Australia:

    23 Dec: ThomsonReutersFoundation: Homegrown African climate model predicts future rains – and risks
    by Munyaradzi Makoni; editing by Laurie Goering
    One big problem confronts Africa as it tries to predict how its weather patterns will shift in the face of climate change: Almost all the climate models for the continent were created in the United States or Europe.
    Now South African climate researcher Francois Engelbrecht has changed that by developing a climate model for Africa, in Africa.
    The model aims to “generate reliable projections of future climate change over Africa,” said Engelbrecht, the chief researcher for climate studies, modeling and environmental health at South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research…

    “We know that climate is changing, risks are changing, including changes in the risk of heatwaves, flooding, drought, tropical cyclones, changes in growing seasons (and) rising temperatures,” said ***Rachel James, a visiting climate researcher at the University of Cape Town…
    “The problem is that we don’t know exactly what will happen in any one location. It’s challenging to predict which areas might get more rainfall and which might get less.” …

    ***Developed in collaboration with Australia, the model will look at things such as how El Nino patterns are likely to affect Africa in the future and how African monsoons may shift, Engelbrecht said…

    A ‘GAME CHANGER’
    ***Jean-Pierre Roux, who manages the Future Climate for Africa project, an effort, backed by UK aid, to improve climate information and resilience on the continent, said he worries that weak climate information and weather information services that do not meet the needs of vulnerable communities could hurt millions in Africa…

    Engelbrecht sees the development of his model as a chance to build skills in everything from climate science to high-performance computing.
    “It is a game changer in enhancing our human capacity in the climate and earth sciences,” he said.
    https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFKBN1EH09J-OZATP

    same old Oxford Uni crowd!

    ***Oxford University: Dr Rachel James, ECI Research Fellow: Climate Modelling for Climate Services
    She has a doctorate from the University of Oxford, focusing on African climate change.
    Rachel is currently based in the OUCE Climate Research Lab, working with Myles Allen and other scientists in the climateprediction.net group, as well as Richard Washington and the African climate research group; and promoting greater collaboration across the ECI, directed by Jim Hall.
    During 2017 she will be working at the Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, as a visiting researcher…

    Rachel has also become increasingly interested in UNFCCC discussions of ‘Loss and Damage’. This began through her work with the ACE-Africa project, investigating the relevance of extreme event attribution science for policy-makers, including interviews with key stakeholders, and participatory games. This work emphasised ambiguity surrounding Loss and Damage (L&D), and prompted an interdisciplinary project to investigate stakeholder perspectives, in collaboration with Emily Boyd (LUCSUS), and Richard Jones (Met Office/Oxford)…
    http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/people/rjames.html

    ***Oxford University: Jean-Pierre Roux
    University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Alumnus

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    clipe

    Merry Christmas all from Toronto

    80

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    Ian1946

    Merry Christmas to all from Beachmere Qid

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    John F. Hultquist

    Here in Washington State and using the Pacific Time Zone, it is just now 8:16 PM on the 23rd. Wanted to wait to the 24th to wish you, so must wait a few hours. Until then I thought I just sit here, read, and have drink or 2. The hands on the klock are moving slow and I’m on my 3rd glaess. Wait. Maybe the frouth.
    Anyway, I’ve no idea what time it is in Austruealiea. I guess that’s wear Parth is, or is it Purth. Do they sell wine in Pearth, or just bear? I have — oops, did have — a bottle of vine, but no bere.
    So it is now 8:245 PST and I muust wet the bed.
    Merry Christmas.

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      Will Janoschka

      John F. Hultquist December 24, 2017 at 3:11 pm ·

      Here in Washington State and using the Pacific Time Zone, it is just now 8:16 PM on the 23rd. Wanted to wait to the 24th to wish you, so must wait a few hours. Until then I thought I just sit here, read, and have drink or 2. The hands on the klock are moving slow and I’m on my 3rd glaess. Wait. Maybe the frouth.
      Anyway, I’ve no idea what time it is in Austruealiea. I guess that’s wear Parth is, or is it Purth. Do they sell wine in Pearth, or just bear? I have — oops, did have — a bottle of vine, but no bere. So it is now 8:245 PST and I muust wet the bed. Merry Christmas.

      I tauht I was doon good in River Valley Arkansas wid my cheep bere. We alls need to get on som good single malt so weuns can get back to proper tinkin. Mary Ruthlessness an Happy whatever!

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    Robber

    Special electricity sale in Vic and SA for Christmas – aren’t those generators nice?
    Only 5 cents/KWhr tomorrow only, and 6 cents in Qld/NSW.
    Haven’t seen prices like that for two years, when that was the norm every day.
    Merry Christmas, enjoy it while it lasts, because retailers are putting up electricity prices in early January.

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      Graeme No.3

      Robber:

      The Sunday Mail has an interview with the Premier (usually known as Weatherdill) in which he predicts a great future for SA after the election in March.
      Have spent every cent he can raise by selling off Govt. Depts. and assets, borrowing heavily, raising taxes and charges and pushing up electricity costs to the highest in the world, with the resultant loss of industries shutting down, he now promises to unleash “a wave of spending” to attract new industry to the State. A long blackout just before the election looks desirable, even necessary.

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    This week’s data and analysis for the Base Load is at the following link.

    I also have an explanation of how there was a pretty monumental failure on Monday just gone, when One Unit failed at Eraring, and took 700MW out of the system instantaneously, and that’s a huge ‘whack’ of power to lose from the grid. The grid covered it in what was a pretty amazing piece of work really, so much so, that no one even noticed that there was a failure of this magnitude.

    Link to this weeks’s Post on that Base Load data and analysis

    Tony.

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      Robber

      Thanks Tony for your learned analysis. Looking at Anero.id it appears that the response came from a series of small increments from a range of sources – effectively spinning reserve. That’s why AEMO plans to have a “Level of Reserve” so that they are always prepared for such an occurrence. If you look at their 7 day outlook, for each State they report “scheduled reserve”. Lack of Reserve 1 (LOR1). When, for the nominated period, AEMO considers there are insufficient short-term capacity reserves available. This capacity must be sufficient to provide complete replacement of the contingency capacity reserve when a critical single credible contingency event occurs in the nominated period. If that reserve is unavailable they take action to commission standby generators.

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    PeterS

    Australia produces electricity from coal about 1% of what the whole world produces electricity from coal. Furthermore, there are roughly a thousand new coal fired plants being built or soon to be built in rest of the world. So can someone please explain to me how both major parties are getting away with telling lies to everyone that we must rapidly reduce our reliance on coal when we know for a fact the world as a whole is moving rapidly towards more coal not less?

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      Ian1946

      Both major have a surfeit of lawyers in their ranks a profession where lying is lauded as a great skill.

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        PeterS

        That might be so with the LNP but the ALP is a totally different story yet they are the ones pushing much harder the lie that we have to move away from coal even more rapidly than the LNP. There has to be another reason.

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        • #
          Ian1946

          The ALP are desperate for Green preferences and will do or promise anything to get them.

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        • #
          David Maddison

          The ultimate reason is the planned destruction of Western Civilisation via the doctrine of Cultural Marxism. The game wasn’t finished after Reagan destroyed Communism, it just mutated,

          https://youtu.be/c7as0pFxPYc

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          David

          Peter I don’t know if all of these ALP pollies are still in the parliament [and frankly I couldn't be bothered checking] but here is a reasonably up to date list of lawyers in said party.

          Labor members of the House (21): Tony Burke, David Bradbury, Mark Butler, Jason Clare, Yvette D’Ath, Mark Dreyfus, Stephen Jones, Mike Kelly, Andrew Leigh, Kirsten Livermore, Richard Marles, Daryl Melham, Shayne Neumann, Brendan O’Connor, Melissa Parke, Graham Perrett, Michelle Rowland, Janelle Saffin, Bill Shorten, Laura Smyth, Kelvin Thomson.

          Labor Senators (5): Mark Bishop, Don Farrell, Joe Ludwig, Matt Thistlethwaite, Penny Wong.

          Depressing

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            PeterS

            David, even it that were so, how about the Greens who are much stronger advocates of the AGW scam? I think there are far fewer layers if any in that party in proportion to the two main parties. Sorry but there has to be another reason.

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          PeterS

          Looks like David Maddison’s link to Cultural Marxism might offer the best answer but it doesn’t really answer my original question as I will explain later. George Orwell’s novel 1984 aligns almost perfectly with what that link says about Marxism and how the redefining of words is one of the main weapons used by the left today (in both major parties) to promote their evil agenda despite all the evidence that shows the push to less coal here in Australia is complete nonsense and only serves to destroy the nation economically. I also think it’s a sort of sickness that those who promote such an evil agenda don’t even realise what they are doing is evil, much like Hitler who on a much larger scale probably didn’t realise that a lot of things he did were evil. Perhaps it’s a case that they are subconsciously redefining the meaning of evil to be good, and good to be evil. Perhaps there’s a word for such a reversal of understanding in the meaning of good and evil. Certain religious people would explain it to be demonic possession. Of course atheists would have to use a different explanation, such as a mental disorder. Regardless, it’s becoming a powerful and destructive element of our Australian way of life and I don’t see it ending soon. If anything it’s gaining momentum thanks to the likes of AGL and other companies effectively peddling the AGW agenda to make more profits.

          Of course Australia is not unique wrt to this delusional “sickness” but it appears Australia is the only country bucking the trend and moving to less coal rather than to more coal. That has to mean the sickness is well and truly out of control here whereas it’s under some control at least elsewhere in the world. That’s why the critique on Cultural Marxism is not the total answer to my question. Any ideas what’s the real answer?

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            el gordo

            ‘So can someone please explain to me how both major parties are getting away with telling lies to everyone that we must rapidly reduce our reliance on coal …’

            The propaganda has been intense, its as simple as that.

            Imagine the ABC newsroom has just employed many respected sceptica,l journalists able to give our point of view on atmospheric science. It would be a game changer.

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    2 years ago Putin said: “I was not, as you know, a party member by necessity,” he said. “I liked Communist and socialist ideas very much and I like them still.” http://www.newsweek.com/russias-putin-says-he-always-liked-communist-socialist-ideas-419289

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      Will Janoschka

      r dinn December 24, 2017 at 5:04 pm

      2 years ago Putin said: “I was not, as you know, a party member by necessity,” he said. “I liked Communist and socialist ideas very much and I like them still.” http://www.newsweek.com/russias-putin-says-he-always-liked-communist-socialist-ideas-419289

      You seem to intentionally discard the precise statement of V. Putin. To do that you will die! :-)

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      Lionell Griffith

      As it is with all Communists/Socialists, they think the failures of the “system” was because the gang in charge didn’t do the right things. They think their gang would do it better. However, the doing better devolves down to exactly the same thing, more brute force.

      They would use more boots on more necks, more whips on more backs, more knives to more guts, more guns to more heads, and more thugs willing to use them more frequently. It is by these methods they think they can fake reality better than the preceding gangs of thugs. Blank out that you cannot fake reality. Such things lead ONLY to poverty, despair, death, and destruction. Brute force cannot build, it can only destroy.

      The primary reality they don’t take into account is that the human mind cannot function if forced. It must be free to to use reason to learn and follow the truth it discovers. Yet, to live and thrive, thoughts and actions must be consistent with the living and thriving of the kind of entity that man is. This cannot be faked no matter how much force is applied.

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    Jim Barker

    Merry Christmas to all from Indiana, USA.

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    Robber

    Interesting challenges for AEMO today, not because of high demand, but low demand. An AEMO Intervention Event has been implemented by issuing directions to maintain the power system in a secure operating state. The AEMO Intervention Event commenced in the 1430 hrs 23/12/2017 dispatch interval and is forecast to apply until 0800 hrs 27/12/2017.
    SA currently has demand of 928 MW, and wind is supplying 1094 MW. To keep the system synchronous, gas is providing 387, so the surplus of 550 MW is being shipped to Vic.
    But at 2pm today, SA demand is forecast to drop to only 520 MW with lots of roof top solar kicking in (and everyone on the beach on 29 degree day after Christmas lunch?). I don’t believe the interconnector has capacity to ship any more than about 600 MW to Vic, so if the wind keeps blowing then some wind turbines will need to be shutdown.

    As an example of what AEMO can do, I found this report:
    AEMO has reviewed the following directions issued between 0115 hours and 0500 hours on 1 December 2016, and the circumstances surrounding these directions, as set out in this report:
     Direction to Torrens Island A1 between 0115 hours and 0500 hours to provide 10 MW of fast raise FCAS under clause 4.8.9 of the NER.
     Direction to Pelican Point Power Station between 0226 hours and 0500 hours to reduce energy output to 165 MW (minimum load) under clause 4.8.9 of the NER.
     Direction to Electranet between 0149 hours and 0500 hours to instruct BHP Olympic Dam to reduce load by 45 MW (until and including DI ending 0250 hours) and 60 MW (between and including DIs ending 0255 hours and 0500 hours) under Section 116 of the NEL.
    Note the last point – load shedding is already part of the plan.

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      Chad

      Does anybody have a suggestion as to what the SA Big Battery is actually doing ?
      http://nem.mwheeler.org/stations#HPRG1
      It seems to be randomly, and very frequently, pulsing short bursts of 30 MW discharge, only stopping for a few hours to recharge. And Its doing this continuously !
      It cannot be “Time Shift” for the wind farm, which has a very different “cycle” pattern, and i dont think a 30MW pulse is doing much for supply stability, so may be it is something to do with FCAS.
      ..but if that is the case, why so frequent ..multiple times each day, anf what were they doing before the battery was available ?

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        Graeme#4

        Perhaps its current purpose is only to earn income selling power to the grid? What else could you do with it? I can’t see it backing up the SA grid to allow the diesels time to start.

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          Chad

          But why such short bursts of only 30MW ??

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            Robber

            The big battery is operated by the Hornsdale wind company Neoen. Looking at yesterday’s production at Aneroid and at NemWeb it seems that Hornsdale was generating no power around midday when prices are generally low (rooftop solar at its peak) so they may have elected to charge the battery and then put the power out from 4pm when prices are higher to meet the late afternoon peak. The battery can put out 30 MW for 3-4 hours, but I can’t understand why output seesaws during that time.

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              Chad

              Yes, i think i can see what they are doing ..
              This is the charge timing vs power cost,..
              http://nemlog.com.au/nem/unit/HPRL1/
              Note that the charge rate is also intermittent and variable..
              And this is the discharge profile..
              http://nemlog.com.au/nem/unit/HPRG1/
              Its pretty obvious they are charging when the price is low , and discharging when the prich is high .
              I think that is called “playing the market”….
              …though im sure they would claim its just “time shifting” the wind farm output !
              I suspect the “pulsing” of both discharge and charge is related to the 30 min bid time system. ??

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  • #
    Mickey Reno

    Merry Christmas Jo and David, and all the readers, mods, guest authors and brainwashed alarmists, too. Hope you have a great new year. Keep up the good work, and maybe the Aussie swamp can start to drain, soon.

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      John F. Hultquist

      Mickey Reno,
      RE: “brainwashed alarmists”

      I wonder if it is possible for a CAGW alarmist to have a Merry Christmas or any good day? They tell people how to think, eat, travel, and reproduce. Very few people pay any attention. That must be a continuing bother to them.
      The USA’s “Larry the Cable Guy” (Daniel L. Whitney), has a catchphrase “Git-R-Done!”
      I think of this as ‘do your own thing’ and almost all people oblige. It is easy to be happy because so many people seem to be listening to me.

      It is just Christmas morning where we are and a Merry Christmas it is.
      To those whose time zone has moved on — well then, Happy New Year.

      That’s for Jo and all others reading and commenting here. Cheers!

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    John F. Hultquist

    Puget Sound region (Seattle etc.) has had a “white” Christmas.

    Have look: Photos from KOMO News

    The claim is this is only the 3rd White Christmas [1 inch on the ground] in 100 years. (1926, 2008, 2017)

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    yarpos

    Just noticed a little climate social engineering on Foxtel Sy Fy channel – a little pop up quiz during a channel promo “how much coal can you fit on a death star” good grief

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    Andrew

    What if the “pseudo science” of consensus is totally wrong?
    We know the answer to that
    ‘Fear A Deep Temperature Drop — Not Global Warming’
    Shared this with a group of warminsts and they went apoplectic

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    Graeme No.3

    Very much O/T

    Said Tim, don’t be mislead
    for I’ve tried to make it plain
    that even though your skies are dark
    it ain’t never gonna rain.

    CHORUS
    Oh, it ain’t gonna rain no more no more,
It ain’t gonna rain no more

    How the hell can Tim Flannery tell, 
It ain’t gonna rain no more
    The night was dark and dreary, 
And the air was full of sleet
    
the BoM man rode out the storm 
And said “that’s one record we’ll delete.
    CHORUS

    Tim said “the seas are rising fast,
    we’ll need to build an ark”.
    But 30 years later they were the same,
    So People just said faark.
    CHORUS

    We’ll all be fried Tim said,
    before 5 or 10 years is past.
    But then he changed the starting date,
    that’s one claim I want to last.
    CHORUS

    He was no real chemist.
    who claimed the oceans would be no more.
    For he thought that H-2-O
    Was really H-2-S-O-4
    CHORUS

    Now Tim is on the payroll no more
    for he was on a Commission,
    But people didn’t like him being wrong.
    and thought he’d been too long in that position.
    CHORUS

    Now the sun rises in the East,
    and never in the West.
    said the BoM we’ll homogenise,
    and set your mind at rest.
    CHORUS

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    Rod Stuart

    Boxing Day 15:00 hours.
    It would appear that SA, Tas, Vic, and NSW are relying on Qld for that good old coal fired power. Otherwise all the other ships would be dead in the water. Just like the days of sail before steam.

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    el gordo

    In south west China the temperature was warmer in the 1750s.

    http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/dec/a13.php

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    ScotsmanInUtah

    MERRY CHRISTMAS and a HAPPY NEW YEAR

    I’d like to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to everyone here , whom continue to contribute via their comments common sense, and invaluable information to a great BLOG.
    and to Joanne and David a special thanks for their efforts in bringing a sense of reality to the complex world of Climate Science.

    Merry Christmas to all you guys

    Peter Waddell

    10