JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Matt Ridley: Never experienced anything like this — the climate debate “blackening”

Matt Ridley is about as gentlemanly, polite and sane a man as you’ve ever likely to meet — which is exactly why the mob are so afraid of letting him speak. Ridley even agrees that humans have caused most of the warming in the last fifty years (I shall have to talk to him about that). But this middle position is a potent threat. He’s walking the very ground that threatens the Green Blob — there are no subsidy trains in middle land. There’s no urgency, no gravy, and yet it’s so temptingly sensible, which is why the minions work hard to silence him. He can’t be ignored as “fringe”:

The National Review — Julie Kelly 

“I’ve written about many controversial issues during my career,” Ridley said. “Never, have I ever experienced anything like what happens when you write about climate, which is a systematic and organized attempt to blacken your name rather than your arguments, and to try to pressure any outlet that publishes me into not publishing me any more.” A group of activists and scientists is urging the Times (U.K.) to stop publishing a regular column authored by Ridley because his views often challenge the climate tribe’s reigning dogma. Fortunately, none of this seems to have dampened Ridley’s good humor or self-effacing manner.

 In a normal scientific debate, there would be a normal distribution of opinions — with most minds walking the middle ground where Matt is. It’s only tribal politics and rampant bullying that can keep opinions split in a U-shape distribution with most “players” either completely for or completely against an idea. And this is what Ridley is experiencing.

One of those groups must be wrong. Perhaps both. But the U-shape polarized opinion state takes a lot of effort to maintain. There is high-speed-spin, and buckets of money required to centrifuge the minds out of the middle.

Skeptics are not the ones fighting to silence voices.

h/t Climate Depot

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Matt Ridley: Never experienced anything like this -- the climate debate "blackening", 9.8 out of 10 based on 114 ratings

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119 comments to Matt Ridley: Never experienced anything like this — the climate debate “blackening”

  • #
    KinkyKeith

    If Matt Ridley was only discussing the UHI temperatures then most would agree with him that most of it is of human origin.

    Mind you we are not talking CO2 here, just the heat haze from all those households consuming gas, petrol and electricity.

    The thing that most people cannot relate to is the magnitude, or rather, lack of it, that human activity represents in comparison with nature.

    Even considering the UHI effect, our input is puny and insignificant and CO2 has absolutely nothing to do with it.

    KK

    415

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      I work in an urban environment. I live in a suburban environment. I have a life-style block in a rural environment. I have recording thermometers and hydrometers in all of those environments.

      I can observe, on a daily basis, the urban heat island effect. It is minor to minuscule. I do not lose any sleep over it.

      174

      • #
        Kevin Lohse

        I live in a rural environment in east Kent, UK. I have lived in a rural village near Stockholm in Sweden. Im each case, my trusty car thermometer has shown a temperature difference between town and country, in winter as much as 3C. Granted, car thermometers are not especially accurate, but surely the difference is enough to show that UHI is appreciable?

        233

        • #
          Greg Cavanagh

          Agreed, every study I’ve seen both professional and amateur come up with a figure between 1.5C and 3.0C. Even a clear field will be a lot warmer than the native bush right beside it.

          One of the reasons UAH is insignificant, is because the cities and towns are just a speck on the landscape. When your averaging a temperature (can that be done?) over a 1000km x 1000km landscape, the UAH influence is tiny, like 4 decimal places or less.

          133

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Mea culpa. Mrs Whakaaro points out that my “urban environment”, is in a tower block that overlooks a harbour.

          So the point I was trying to make, was really no point at all.

          Message to self: Engage brain, prior to typing.

          191

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            Alternatively join the Greensand avoid having to use your brain. Hmm! Great slogan?..join the Greens and avoid brain overload.

            122

          • #
            OldGreyGuy

            Looks like Mrs Whakaaro needs to do a little more quality reviewing of the output before pressing send. :-)

            10

      • #
        Rod Stuart

        New Zealand has an urban environment?

        31

        • #
          Manfred

          Counter intuitively, NZ is one of the most highly urbanised countries in the World.

          31

          • #
            Rod Stuart

            Hoodah thunk it!

            21

          • #

            It is counter intuitive because it is confusing two things.

            In Australia and NZ, a high percentage of people live in urban areas than in most other countries. This though does not mean that urban or certain inhabited areas- as pointed out heat accumulates above some inhabited areas that are not strictly urban – make up a significant component of the landscape in these two countries. Countries (e.g Germany, England, Bangladesh, South Korea) are less urban by population distribution but have landscape usage that is much more affected by human activity.

            10

            • #
              Rereke Whakaaro

              I agree with Gee Aye on this. New Zealand has only five or six urban areas (depending upon how you count them). This is low, for a country with a land area that is somewhat similar to that of England. However, New Zealand only has a total population of somewhere between 4.5 and 5 million people, so even the “urban areas” are hardly densely populated.

              20

        • #
          Katio1505

          I was trying to think up something like that.

          21

    • #

      The fear of the truth getting out is what every Leftist, on any subject close to their heart, is what terrifies them the most.

      233

      • #

        Gad! Lately my proofreading skills seem to require vast improvement. I’m beginning to write like an Age journalist.

        The fear of the truth getting out, on any subject close to their heart, is what terrifies every Leftist the most.

        83

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I think it was actually correct what you wrote, tense was correct as well….

          Conceptually, I agree – they are control freaks and the absolute best way to upset them is to say “No!”

          Then stand back, and let the ensuing dummy spit and screaming peter out….

          There is a good reason they should never have access to firearms, too.

          22

      • #
        oldbrew

        Debating might give the opponent’s anti-alarmist arguments more credibility with the public. Better to ‘shoot the messenger’ by doubting their intelligence/integrity/sanity etc., avoiding any mention of inconvenient climate realities.

        91

    • #

      Sydney’s trends definitely don’t agree with our rural midcoast trends. Our thermometers are blatant deniers who refuse to read the literature.

      But if global cooling comes back into vogue and you want a lower winter minimum for the bush I can recommend spots around here where the cold air pools between forest and paddock. Reckon I could get you a drop of a degree or two just by moving ten metres.

      I’m not so nice about the climatariat. Me, I believe all the science and evidence point to climate alarmism being a plank in a sinister neo-Marxist/collectivist agenda. Either that, or Edward Bernays conceived an ingenious long-term plan to sell lakes of diesel to crow-eaters who like blowing up power plants.

      But there I go talking down Australia’s last boom industry, generator sales. It’s not just big stuff from the likes of Aggrekko and Atlas Copco. It’s also your little domestic Honda or Yammie oiler doing its bit in the War on Coal.

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      • #
        ivan

        Here, in my village that is built on a hillside, I can walk down from my house 300 meters during winter and the temperature can drop anything up to 2 degree C which I have measured.

        132

        • #
          CheshireRed

          Atmospheric pressure, which is THE elephant in the CO2 room.
          Bottom of the valley warm, top of the hill cooler. High altitude = lower pressure and lower pressure = lower temperatures.
          Don’t try reciting these facts at alarmists (or CO2 luke-warmers for that matter.) They get angry.

          74

          • #
            ivan

            I know that is what is supposed to happen but what I am talking about is my going DOWN the hill to a colder area. There are a couple of other areas in the village that are colder if you go down into them.

            71

            • #
              wert

              It is not uncommon to have pools of cold air in a valley after a clear night, and some warmer air just a few meters up a hill.

              This is exactly why any funny whimpering on 0.5C is so funny. Local spatial and short temporal fluctuations just totally overwhelm AGW.

              81

      • #
        Kevin Lohse

        I’ve got a garden like that. One area is a frost-pocket when conditions are right, had to replant a Camilla bush because the frost would nip the flower buds at the wrong time.

        61

    • #
      Phoenix44

      I live in London and for a number of years worked a few miles outside of the city. In the winter in the mornings it was pretty common to reach the Green Belt and all of a sudden there was ice. The digital And just about every winter, the surrounding counties will get snow, but London will not. UHI us 1-2 degrees.

      113

    • #
      Manfred

      KK, as you know, the trouble with the unfalsifiable confabulated UN definition ‘climate change‘ is that the UNFCCC has deemed ANY direct or indirect anthropogenic influence on atmospheric composition and land usage to constitute “climate change.” To zero sum this doesn’t bear thinking about, except it does now apparently …

      Want to help combat climate change? Have one less child, study says.
      An international study published in July recommends having one less child, living car free, avoiding airplane travel and eating a plant based diet as the best ways to help combat climate change.

      The predictable NZ MSM trot out the term “study” and “report” to garner greater authority to what is in fact neither but an opinion propaganda piece, a letter entitled: The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions published here in Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017). Chief among these is education brain washing in schools.

      The usual adherents of Climatism join in with the chant on NZ MSM, “I firmly believe to save the planet there needs to be strict breeding regulations and plans in place for families, all across the globe,” said one interviewed person. Victoria University Scintivist “climate expert” James Renwick is reported to say that the study is applicable to the pimple on a gnats bottom that is New Zealand because population growth has been the biggest driver of resource use and carbon dioxide emissions globally.

      There is only one way out of this absurd a priori UN definition, “climate change.” Defund and disband the IPCC immediately and forcibly return the UN to its fundamental core roles as peace keeper and aid distributor.

      UN pretensions at Global Administration are begging to be stamped on hard.

      81

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        All I could think of was that country and western song of not letting your kids grow up to be cowboys….maybe we could change it to “climate scientists”…..might sound a bit odd tho’….

        Just had a horse fix this morning, probably why that song came to mind….had one 15.5hh black gelding who insisted I had some treats in my pocket….got nudged all over the place….covered in horse hair now… :-)

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    • #
      James Bradley

      Now for unverified Cli-Sci from our experts,

      According to ANU’s Dr Sophie Lewis (ABC 04/10/2017) “When you’ve got grey infrastructure and roads and buildings absorbing all that heat, not only does it get much hotter, but it takes twice to three times as long to cool down,” she said.

      Dr Lewis cited models projected 50°C days as the norm from a temperature increase of only 2°C in Sydney and Melbourne by 2050.

      Sadly for Dr Lewis the models did not take into account a real life city of cement and steel that is already 2°C above Sydney and Melbourne – Brisbane.

      FYI – Temperature record for Brisbane – 43.2 °C (110 °F) on 26 January 1940 (with far less concrete and steel than nowadays).

      And Brisbane has not experienced a 50°C day yet…

      41

      • #
        OldGreyGuy

        > And Brisbane has not experienced a 50°C day yet…

        Probably because our humidity stops runaway temperatures. Funny how Darwin which is much further N and closer to the equator never has 50°C days either.

        30

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘….CO2 has absolutely nothing to do with it.’

    We have to wait and see how the hiatus pans out, but in the meantime I won’t be joining Ridley, Curry and Lomborg in the lukewarm camp.

    154

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    (I shall have to talk to him about that).”

    Please do.
    If he publically agrees, then the haters will crank their actions up to 11.

    143

  • #
    TdeF

    Skeptical? Silence voices. Skeptical is what scientists are when they hear a new perhaps crazy idea. Interested, willing to listen but skeptical. After thirty years, we are well past that. Man made CO2 driven Global Warming is a lie.

    There are perhaps four distinct lies, each essential to the argument.
    First that the CO2 increase is man made, which is not true.
    Second that CO2 causes significant warming, which is now proven to be untrue as CO2 has been increasing steadily. Third that significant warming has occurred, a warming which is at the limits of detection from 1900 and which has no observed effect beyond natural variation
    Lastly that significant warming will continue, 1.5C and more at 2100, a prediction which is now without foundation and will likely fail like every other prediction.

    Then there is the partial bleaching of the Great Barrier reef, which is universally argued to be due to Global Warming, without any explanation whatsoever. Yes, the hurricane Irma which was caused by and solely by Climate Change.

    Skeptical? No. This is simply political science and those on the extreme communist side always silence their enemies, always attack the person, never address the facts. Silence voices? This is basic Marxist communist training. Unfortunately now in concert with the trillions of dollars being made by the extreme left of politics and the capitalists on the extreme right and in the most unholy alliance since WW2. ‘The science’ does not exist.

    324

    • #
      Bob Weber

      “Then there is the partial bleaching of the Great Barrier reef, which is universally argued to be due to Global Warming, without any explanation whatsoever.”

      Explanation in response to David Middleton’s WUWT article on the subject this week:

      The unmentioned factor is strong sunshine; ie, high UV and TSI during the 2014 sunspot maximum and 2015 TSI maximum, that powered the 2015-16 El Nino.

      Solar Radiation As a Cause of Coral Bleaching – Summary

      “The link between solar radiation and coral reef bleaching goes back nearly a century to when MacMunn (1903) postulated that ultraviolet radiation could be potentially damaging to corals. It wasn’t until half a century later, however, that scientists began to confirm this suspicion via laboratory and field studies (Catala-Stucki, 1959; Siebeck, 1988; Gleason and Wellington, 1995).”

      Ultraviolet radiation and coral bleaching

      “Abstract
      EPISODES of coral bleaching resulting from dissociation of endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) from host coral tissues have occurred with increasing frequency over the past decade on reefs throughout the tropics. These episodes have usually been attributed to increases in sea water temperatures, but the mass bleaching events that occurred throughout the Caribbean during 1987 and 1990 were not readily explained by temperature alone. An additional factor that may have contributed to these bleaching episodes is ultraviolet radiation in the 280-400nm band. At many localities where bleaching occurred in 1987 and 1990, sea conditions were described as extremely calm with exceptionally clear water.”

      UV & TSI were higher in 1990 than in 2016; ie, SC22 > SC24.

      From Coral Bleaching, UV Effects, and Multiple Stressors in the Florida Keys, this indicates strong sunshine has it’s strongest effect closest to the surface, important under low sea level conditions as described in his post:

      https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncer_abstracts/index.cfm/fuseaction/display.files/fileID/8809

      The sun caused coral bleaching along with ‘global warming’.

      83

      • #
        TdeF

        Thanks. Of course there is an explanation. Perhaps there are multiple. It is probably a regular event except that we have only been in the country for 230 years and for most of that time would not have known or cared. All these ‘disasters’ like vanishing Polar bears are invented disasters, observations followed by allegations ultimately followed by retractions. What happened to those 250,000 missing Caribou?

        A warmer sun? Lower sea levels exposing delicate corals? Increased UVA? However not none which connects the bleaching the Barrier reef with CO2 as implied by no less than the US President Obama who chose to lecture us. Evil Australians harming their Reef so his grandchildren cannot see it? The tragedy of our time.

        If the water is warmer, as universally blamed, how is that connected to heating of the atmosphere through additional CO2? Especially as average air temperatures have not changed measurably in twenty years? No, the people who grab any natural event and blame Climate Change have given up explanations. Truth is whatever they say it is. Consensus science, devoid of logic. Hurricane Irma was Donald Trump’s fault. Obviously.

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  • #
    NB

    ‘There is high-speed-spin, and buckets of money required to centrifuge the minds out of the middle.’
    Great sentence. I never thought of spin like that.
    I was going to make a comment along the lines that the scam is pure politics, not science, but TdeF beat me to it:

    ‘This is simply political science and those on the extreme communist side always silence their enemies, always attack the person, never address the facts. Silence voices? This is basic Marxist communist training.’

    Yep, just a political play. So we can all live in a socialist paradise, just like the Venezualans have chosen for themselves.

    172

  • #
    NB

    Oh, yes, its the techniques of Alinsky at work. Hillary’s mentor.
    Saul Alinsky, Rules for Radicals.
    It’s not a bad idea to get to know it, so it can be outed as a favoured book of tactics. Outing it would help depower it. The general population should know that people write this stuff and others follow it.

    222

  • #
    Phillip Bratby

    The corruption in and behind climate science runs very deep, has very deep pockets and has a lot of fanatical supporters to whom the end justifies the means.

    213

    • #
      Dennis

      What amazes me is that various people such as UN Official Christiana Figureres have gone public commenting that it is not about the environment and all about socialism attacking capitalism as the world has known it, and redistribution of wealth.

      It’s very obvious that socialist/communist capitalists are exploiting the situation, crony capitalists. And that left leaning governments of UN member nations are allowing the exploitation of taxpayers to take place.

      But the MSM and others keep following the global warming script and producing deceptive advertising to brainwash voters.

      283

  • #
    Greg Cavanagh

    The inverse logarithmic heating ability of CO2 is near saturation. It should be obvious to anyone who views that graph that it can never get to a runaway greenhouse.

    Doubling CO2 is speculated to raise the near ground temperature about 1.5C, but I believe that other factors will come into play and reduce that by half.

    There is way too many things that the researchers aren’t researching. The field is ripe with nonsense studies.

    143

  • #
    pat

    why “we the writers” are so important!

    2 Oct: Guardian: Why the 97% climate consensus is important
    Some have argued that consensus messaging is counter-productive. Here’s why they’re wrong.
    by Dana Nuccitelli, John Cook, Sander van der Linden, Tony Leiserowitz, Ed Maibach
    (John Cook is a research assistant professor at the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, researching cognitive science.
    Sander van der Linden is an Assistant Professor in Social Psychology, Director of the Cambridge Social Decision-Making Lab and a Fellow of Churchill College.
    Anthony Leiserowitz is a Research Scientist and Director of the Yale Project on Climate Change at the School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University.
    Edward Maibach is a University Professor and Director of Mason’s Center for Climate Change Communication.)

    Unfortunately, humans don’t have infinite brain capacity, so no one can become an expert on every subject. But people have found ways to overcome our individual limitations through social intelligence, for example by developing and paying special attention to the consensus of experts. Modern societies have developed entire institutions to distill and communicate expert consensus, ranging from national academies of science to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Assessments of scientific consensus help us tap the collective wisdom of a crowd of experts. In short, people value expert consensus as a guide to help them navigate an increasingly complex and risk-filled world…

    Neurological evidence even suggests that when people learn that they are in agreement with experts, reward signals are produced in the brain…

    However, some academics have recently argued that communicators and educators should not inform the public about the strong scientific consensus on climate change. UK sociologist Warren Pearce and his colleagues recently published a commentary (and corresponding Guardian op-ed)(LINK) arguing that communicating the scientific consensus is actually counter-productive. John Cook published a reply, which we summarize here (LINK)…
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/oct/02/why-the-97-climate-consensus-is-important?CMP=share_btn_tw

    22

  • #
    pat

    Trump is a threat to the consensus:

    3 Oct: ClimateChangeNews: Megan Darby: Lead diplomat: Bonn climate talks must ‘restate vision of Paris’
    Fijian negotiator Nazhat Shameem Khan says upcoming talks must make a strong political statement in the face of Donald Trump’s antagonism…

    China and the EU, both mooted as contenders to fill the leadership void left by the US, disagree over the way nations report their progress on cutting emissions. The EU is pushing for universal standards, while China argues that developing countries should be subject to lighter requirements. Shameem Khan says the meeting must bring the sides closer on this tense issue, ready to finalise a framework next year, or risk sending a signal “the world is divided”…

    Every COP presidency uses buzzwords like “inclusive” and “trust”, sometimes linked to a specific cultural tradition. For South Africa, it was indaba. For Fiji, it is talanoa, a Pacific concept of informal storytelling that Shameem Khan says builds empathy and consensus for collective action…
    “You can have a dialogue with somebody who is an axe murderer,” she says, swiftly adding that might be a bad example. “Please, let’s just talk. This is how embracing talanoa is.”…

    The lawyer-turned-diplomat is at her most animated when talking about sexism…

    At the climate summit, she is championing the launch of a gender action plan…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/10/03/lead-diplomat-bonn-climate-talks-must-restate-vision-paris/

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    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Why shouldn’t they use the term “inclusive”.

      Our tax dollars are definitely “included” in their plans for their future.

      KK

      62

  • #
    turnedoutnice

    The explanation of this massive failure in science is essentially the bad mistake by Hansen in 1969 when he assumed that non plane wave impact on lower droplets behaved like plane waves. That mistake, which also creates non existent amplification, led to the kludge (Met. Office) used to force the climate models to back up the Charney Report.

    Rain and convective clouds have dark undersides/higher albedo. NASA claims high albedo is exclusively a small droplet effect: an intellectual failure. The key is the gravitational fall and agglomeration of droplets in clouds that are deeper than average: the intense, forward scattering lobe gives up to 30,000 times the plane wave internal reflection; a significant and hitherto undiscovered increase of extinction coefficient.

    This explains rainbows and the amplification of Milankovitch tsi rise that ends ice ages, also the present descent into the new Little Ice Age. Increased cloud buoyancy and the activation of more 16 – 23 micron water IR wavebands almost exactly offsets any CO2 effect.

    The other mistake has been to fail to understand that Planck IR equilibrium at the IR level is only positive in the Atmospheric Window. Reality is a PID control system that only allows tsi change to alter mean temperatures: hence the planet has stayed within 6 K range over a million years.. The proof is the palaeo observation that temperatures are controlled mainly by the creation of the THC when Pangea moved South and froze as equatorial heat went South. This is why we are now cooling – THC has a time constant of 800 years so we are being affected by what happened in 1200 when tsi fell.

    Only engineers can piece together such complex systems: Climate scientists who believe it’s all a CO2 effect are losers currently, now they no longer control publications, facing their Phlogiston collapse (which took 3 years). The trouble is these people, Academic feeders at the welfare teat, have indoctrinated a generation by simplistic propaganda, e.g. Wadham pushing his Arctic theory, now being disproved by a significant increase of Arctic ice extent with poseurs desperately sailing north and south to prove otherwise, e.g. the Ship of Fools.

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    • #

      The bigger mistake of Hansen was providing the theoretical justification for a high sensitivity by applying positive feedback, per Bode. While he made numerous mistakes, which were made even worse by Schlesinger’s ‘corrections’ to Hansen’s analysis, the most important mistake was not conforming to the prerequisites for using Bode’s LINEAR feedback analysis, which were strict input to output linearity (the incremental gain/sensitivity must be the same as the average gain/sensitivity) and the requirement for an implicit, infinite source of Joules to power the gain (it’s not the Sun since you can’t connect the forcing input to the power supply and expect a gain greater than unity).

      Hansen’s mistakes were canonized in the first IPCC report as the theoretical justification for an absurdly high climate sensitivity and have never been corrected because nobody in all of climate science understands Bode’s feedback system analysis. Schlesinger told me he was the foremost expert in climate system feedback and based on my discussions with him, he’s absolutely clueless.

      65

      • #
        turnedoutnice

        There is no feedback: it’s from the assumption of incorrect cloud physics and the assumption of constant 16-23 micron IR physics.

        This is truly a disaster of science. Bode analysis mistakes are a scam by Hansen.

        56

    • #
      peter

      tsi? Total Solar Incidence?
      PID?

      11

      • #
        turnedoutnice

        Total solar irradiation (at the surface).

        Proportional (clouds take away latent heat to offset nearly all CO2 climate sensitivity).

        Integral – accumulation of ocean heat until IR emissivity falls to near zero at ~32 deg. C when El Nino occurs.

        Differential – convective clouds (thunder storms) – the safety valve.

        PID means operation about a thermodynamic set point which I believe for the moment is minimisation of radiation entropy production rate. CO2 climate sensivity is maintained at exactly zero.

        The 15% greening of the planet is part of the negative feedback.

        14

  • #
    turnedoutnice

    PS as predicted by Arrhenius in 1908, the present 15% increase in pant growth rate is part of the intense negative feedback: Ridley has recently written about this but Arrhenius was the first.

    83

  • #
    Robert Rosicka

    I’m certain they wouldn’t want a debate just like the trolls here they are not into rational and open dialogue, they never answer a question that they know would give the scam away .
    When they turn on their own as Jo has pointed out above it just reinforces the ideology of CAGW.

    92

  • #
    pat

    got the volcanoes covered. with so many “experts” involved, who would doubt us?

    2 Oct: Nature Climate Change: Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability
    Ingo Bethke, Stephen Outten, Odd Helge Otterå, Ed Hawkins, Sebastian Wagner, Michael Sigl & Peter Thorne
    Affiliations
    Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen 5007, Norway Ingo Bethke & Odd Helge Otterå
    Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen 5006, Norway Stephen Outten
    NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK Ed Hawkins
    Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht 21502, Germany Sebastian Wagner
    Laboratory of Environmental Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen 5232, Switzerland Michael Sigl
    Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern 3012, Switzerland Michael Sigl
    Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, Department of Geography, National University of Ireland Maynooth, Maynooth, County Kildare, Ireland Peter Thorne

    Contributions
    S.O., P.T. and I.B. developed the stochastic forcing model. S.W. and M.S. helped with the utilization and interpretation of the ice-core reconstructions. I.B., P.T., S.O. and E.H. conceived and designed the simulation experiments. E.H. performed the ToE analysis. All authors contributed to writing the manuscript.

    Competing financial interests
    The authors declare no competing financial interests…

    Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climate variability…
    Here, we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistent with ice-core records, impact climate variability projections of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM)6 under RCP4.5 (ref. 7)…

    ***Although decades with negative global temperature trends become ~50% more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming…

    RENT OR BUY STUDY DETAILS…
    http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3394.html?foxtrotcallback=true

    13

  • #
    pat

    ***if you are with the CAGW agenda, you can say anything you like, and MSM will provide the “inappropriate” photo:

    2 Oct: New Scientist: Kids suing nations over climate change wildfire links are right
    A group of children is aiming to take 47 nations to court over links between climate change and forest fires.
    Science is on their side, says Richard Schiffman
    ***PHOTO CAPTION: A raging wildfire in Leiria, Portugal
    Can countries that foul our atmosphere with gases that warm the world be held legally accountable for the consequences?
    Yes, say six schoolchildren from Leiria in Portugal…

    To continue reading this premium article, register or login for free for unlimited access…
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2149197-kids-suing-nations-over-climate-change-wildfire-links-are-right/

    21

  • #
    Ceetee

    Skeptics are not the ones fighting to silence voices

    Skeptics tend to not be left wing orientated. It would be really constructive if people of all persuasions were happy to debate and more pertinently, allow counter debate. The left demeans itself with it’s authoritarian tendencies. It lives in the past and it shows. It’s thought processes and arguments don’t stand skeptical inquiry. Imagine this, the entire debate is turned on it’s head where non skeptics accuse people like me of denying that the climate ever changes… hang on…doh!!!

    124

  • #
    pat

    2 Oct: Bloomberg: Shell to Seek Sale of Stake in $1.4 Billion Wind Farm
    Royal Dutch Shell Plc and its partners Eneco Holdings NV and Mitsubishi Corp. are seeking to sell a stake in two Dutch offshore wind-farm projects that may cost $1.4 billion to develop, two people familiar with the plan said.
    The companies are looking to reduce their ownership in the Borssele III and IV wind farms by as much as 45 percent, according to the people who asked not to be named because they aren’t authorized to speak about it publicly. The fourth partner, infrastructure contractor Van Oord NV, is keeping its share of the project…

    The move would allow the companies to scale back financial exposure to the wind farms and redeploy the cash in new projects with the potential for higher returns…

    With a combined capacity of 700 megawatts, the units may require investment of $1.4 billion by the time they are complete in 2020, according to estimates from Bloomberg New Energy Finance. By those calculations, a 45 percent stake may be worth roughly $630 million…READ ON
    https://about.bnef.com/blog/shell-to-seek-sale-of-stake-in-1-4-billion-wind-farm/

    3 Oct: Bloomberg: Tesla Is Dropped by Climate Fund That’s Beaten 97% of Its Peers
    Tesla Inc. is overvalued, according to a climate fund that has beaten 97 percent of its peers.
    “We don’t see upside,” Thomas Sorensen, who manages the Nordea Global Climate and Environmental Fund, said by phone on Thursday. “What’s needed in cash flow generation to get to the current valuation — we don’t see that happening.”…
    “It’s going to be a race to the bottom for the whole industry,” he said. “In this big transition period, it’s very tough to point out the winners and the overall profitability of the sector. The risks are too high.”…

    While its biggest holdings are National Grid Plc, Ecolab Inc. and Johnson Controls International Plc, the fund has a bias toward smaller companies, such as Ansys Inc. and kitchen appliance maker Rational AG.
    “It’s those mid-cap companies with a unique solution, unique product that can be taken global,” he said. “That’s our sweet spot. That’s where we’ve made the most money in the past.”…
    The fund’s latest investments in Symrise AG and Kerry Group Plc try to capture that trend for green consumerism, he said…
    https://about.bnef.com/blog/tesla-is-dropped-by-climate-fund-thats-beaten-97-of-its-peers/

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    Gee Aye

    He’s a real peer. He can write and he helped with Northumberlandia. It’s a huge step up

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    Radical Rodent

    Skeptics are not the ones fighting to silence voices.

    Perhaps one of the most revelatory statements made. One should ask: Why are there such violent moves to oppose argument against AGW? What do the proponents of AGW fear? If it is fear of being wrong, what has altered in science that there should be such fear? Then, there is the observation: perhaps there is some deeper, darker motive behind the entire global warming scare. If there is, then we should encourage everyone to rise up against that, as there have been many attempts to silence the opposition, often with capital punishment (as has been mooted for sceptics), throughout history. The results have never been pleasant.

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      That deeper, darker motive is that political forces are so vested in the broken science, they can’t admit being wrong for fear that this would highlight ideological weakness that could be fatal to their other causes.

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      Reed Coray

      RR, put yourself in the shoes of a true believer–the fate of life on Earth is at stake. If something isn’t done immediately, runaway global warming will destroy life as we know it. Any delay, no matter how short, in taking action to stop AGW cannot be tolerated. Debating the issue delays taking the appropriate action. Therefore, debate is unacceptable. If AGW true-believers are correct that (a) we are on the precipice of doom, (b) we can prevent that doom only by taking immediate action, and (c) debating the issue delays taking that action, then squelching debate is a sensible course of action; and is not only justified, it is required. Of course, if they’re wrong, well their intentions were honorable so in their minds they can and should be forgiven.

      Their position is to a large degree how I feel about socialism. Socialism won’t destroy life on Earth, but it will play havoc with mankind’s well being. Any delay in stopping socialism will lead to increased human misery. Therefore, debating the non-existent virtues of socialism can only lead to more human misery. There are, however, three differences between true AGW believers and my position on socialism. First, I may be wrong–after all, isn’t the model of heaven one humongous socialistic society. Second, even if I’m right, no one appointed me arbitrator of the universe. Even stronger than my belief that socialism is a cancer on the world, is my belief than mankind should have the freedom to chose its own destiny. If that destiny is self-destruction, so be it. Third, if I’m wrong and my actions lead to untold misery, my “intentions” should have no impact on the wrath that befalls me. I will have earned that wrath and asking for forgiveness is a joke.

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      John Smith

      The problem with AGW is …
      EVERYTHING is anthropogenic, or not.
      Rocks, people, plastic, Bill Nye, dung beetles and bulldozers are ALL results of the physics of the Universe.
      Changes to the environment caused by human activity are no different than the changes caused by water.
      AGW is religion.
      We are not special.

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    Antoine D'Arche

    O/T but can anyone confirm that a HELE is definitely going to be built near Townville? TIA

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    Robert Rosicka

    So true Radical Rodent , it’s ironic they call us flat earthers because when the first person challenged the “consensus ” that the earth was flat and that it was round the scientists the government and the church all banded together and punished anyone who dared to challenge the consensus.

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      Curious George

      Their favorite colourful picture with arrows of different widths pointing up and down and at an angle IS A FLAT EARTH MODEL.

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      TedM

      “and the church all banded together and punished anyone who dared to challenge the consensus.” correction…. the church of Rome did.

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      sophocles

      and so it continues.
      It took the Church over 400 years to apologise to Galileo, so I’m not holding my breath.

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      Robert Rosicka

      Notice just red thumbs no rebuttal or different point of view .

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      Radical Rodent

      That is what happens, Robert Rosicka – the few mystery red-thumbers pounce, probably more out of spite than rational argument, as no argument is ever offered.

      But I want to take issue with you – that the world is not flat was known even prior to the Roman times; the myth of the flat Earth seems to have been generated during Victorian times, perhaps when the scientists of the day wished to appear so much smarter than those previous. Columbus knew it to be round, which is why he set off west to get to the east; he just didn’t know that there was a couple of continents in the way. However… the Piri Reis map (Google it), on which he based his idea, and used to get funding from the king of Spain, did show the Americas – as well as Antarctica being a continent of two parts, a fact only recently (re)discovered!

      As for the Galileo story – have a look at this reasonably recent study of the shenanigans; it would appear that “science” may well have misled us with that story, too. If nothing else, this whole, sorry affair of glowbull worming has revealed the more sordid side of science – it can be as corrupt as any other human endeavour.

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    pat

    4 Oct: TownsvilleBulletin: Adani defenders criticise Four Corners report
    by DOMANII CAMERON
    Five questions were sent to Adani before the Four Corners program aired, but Adani’s response was not given air time.
    Instead it was instead posted on the program’s website to coincide with the program.
    Dawson MP George Christensen, said the ABC report was not surprising.
    “They want to go to war on local jobs throughout the North,” Mr Chistensen said.
    “It could have been a 45-minute paid advertisement by the Greens…

    Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said the State Government had imposed strict environmental conditions on the Adani project, which would have a positive impact on regional Queensland.
    “You only have to travel to regional Queensland to understand what this project means to thousands of families that will be employed,” she said…

    ABC spokesman: “It was not practicable to read Adani’s statement in full on the program and would not have been consistent with the program’s format or normal practice.”…

    Townsville Enterprise director policy and investment Michael McMillan said the story was a one-sided argument.
    “What I would desperately like to see is who is talking about all the other aspects of this organisation as far as what the amazing work they have done,” Mr McMillan said…

    FULL RESPONSE FROM ADANI:
    Dear Mr Long (ABC)…READ ON
    http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/adani-defenders-criticise-four-corners-report/news-story/2c1022789e9fdfd53a6169abc3a6e35d

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    pat

    4 Oct: TownsvilleBulletin: ABC’s bias on Adani too clear
    by DAMIEN TOMLINSON
    IT’S a piece of “journalism” you wouldn’t bat an eyelid at if it was produced by fringe media outlets such as The Guardian Australia, which is backed by green activists and has openly stated its bias on subjects such as gay marriage.
    But for the national broadcaster — which by law must be impartial and balanced — to engage in such a biased, slanted attack piece is frankly gobsmacking.

    The ABC has a long history of attacking Adani, as we reveal today.
    The Four Corners team knew exactly what kind of story they were going to do before the plane took off.
    With pre-planned interviews, locations and talent, the “harassment” by local authorities was pure television gold, a cherry on top for what was always intended to paint Adani as a planet-killing, corrupt and evil corporation…

    The extremely well-organised, heavily funded #StopAdani movement is using the Four Corners piece as a major development in its sustained campaign against all forms of coal production.
    Adani’s response was a footnote on the ABC’s piece. So much for balance…

    Of course, any reporting of the “other” side – the thousands of jobs, the dawn of a new economic boom for our regional towns and the billions flowing to government coffers – is attacked as bias.
    Yes, balance is bias when it comes to Adani.
    The ABC was once where Australians turned to for grown-up, sober analysis of the news of the day…
    http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/abcs-bias-on-adani-too-clear/news-story/6d8391c6665681b2282b576fa093996f

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    Ruairi

    What warmists call science today,
    Will not allow skeptics their say,
    As they’d have to come out,
    If the truth got about,
    And admit that real science won’t pay.

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    For a thinking person like Matt Ridley to remain in the middle has always been puzzling to me. I am sure that he is aware of both sides of the argument and yet he is not being swayed by observational data (like 800 years CO2 lag which I consider one the the primary silver bullets) in favour of the sceptics. Am I missing something vital that he posses? What is his argument for his position?
    Also, why he is surprised that he is attacked by the alarmists? He recognises that any form of deviation is unacceptable in a state or populist movement derived totalitarianisms. He writes extensively about freedom, history, politics and yet he is surprised?
    Is he really that critical or perhaps his personal courage has its limitations?

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    • #

      He’s pretty robust on doom-saying and the problems
      of renewable technologies.

      Here’s an outspoken discussion sent to me by a former
      adviser to govt, between Peterson/Paglia re post-modern
      attacks on history and biology, no boundary conditions
      allowed, all power to bureaucracy to determine via
      identity politics law enactments, what we may say or
      think.

      Video at about half-way mark, those Western technical
      developments that brought light, the grid, clean water
      to us by those pesky western males to be dismantled.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-hIVnmUdXM

      [Heads up, video is long.] AZ

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    Richard Ilfeld

    IT’s CO2
    Not H2O
    The truth you have
    No need to know
    Burma Shave

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    This is only being noticed now? It’s been this way for decades, but it does seem as the ‘science’ case for CAGW gets weaker and weaker, the hostility increases. Isn’t this just politics as usual?

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    Stew Green

    Boo Word
    eg denier, fascist etc.
    \\ “discriminatory” is what secular philosopher Jamie Whyte calls a “boo word”
    it’s a word that has more rhetorical force than intellectual //

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    Roy Hogue

    This will not be any consolation to Mr. Ridley but he’s in good company. The president of the United States is under similar personal attack with the same objective — silence him and his influence on politics; to destroy him as thoroughly as possible.

    In both cases their enemies — and that’s what they are – fear them. Whether either man is right or wrong doesn’t enter into the equation. They don’t care about right or wrong on the issue. They care about preserving their influence, their power and of course, their income derived from the scare they try to create.

    The world is beginning to figure out the facts from the fiction and although there’s no guarantee that this enlightenment will go far enough, it’s enough to strike fear into the heart of the global warming camp. An enlightened public will be the end of their power and their money.

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      Roy Hogue

      Lest I be guilty of making too general a statement, at least some of the world is figuring out the the facts from the fiction.

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    Dennis

    Andrew Bolt Blog today, The Daily Telegraph

    Geologist Ian Plimer has a new book being launched tomorrow by Senator Cory Bernardi, The Climate Change Delusion and the Great Electricity Ripoff. On The Bolt Report, Plimer says “doctored” climate models promote a “fallacy based on fraud promoted by fools”. Watch.

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    AndyG55

    Ian Plimer has his say on the Bolt Report

    Ian Plimer understands climate science…

    ENJOY ! :-)

    ” A FALLACY, based on FRA*D, promoted by FOOLS”

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/ian-plimer-on-the-great-climate-con/news-story/e8838a0575ff2217d4eab23ccb9d8c45

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    Louis Hissink

    I suspect we are witnessing the outcome of 100 years of K12 education policies in operation, rather than any malevolence or willful numeric aadjusting – after all it is a belief system since everything about climate forecasting is always in the future. Hence it is faith we are dealing with, and faith informed by K12 forced ignorance. They can’t even understand why their theories are wrong, since they only know how to recite the sacred numeric texts.

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      KinkyKeith

      100 years Louis?

      I think that 50 years is all it’s taken.

      KK

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        Louis Hissink

        KK, I suppose you are right but it was about 100 years ago when Dewey et al started implementing their policies, and I suppose it accelerated after WWII when public funding continued when it should have been stopped.

        I suspect Ridley is experiencing a Damascene moment….

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          OriginalSteve

          Everything started to go down hill once the UN appeared….the UN is the beach head into occult-driven globalism….

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    pat

    the headline had to be changed (see comments), but the obfuscation of the entire piece is still there; percentages used to confuse, etc.

    4 Oct: CarbonBrief: IEA: Renewable electricity set to grow 40% globally by 2022
    by Jocelyn Timperley
    The world’s renewable electricity capacity is set to rise sharply over the next five years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says, expanding 43% on today’s levels.
    The forecast – a significant upwards revision of the IEA’s renewables projections last year – is largely driven by increasing expansion of solar energy in China and India, says the Paris-based organisation…

    Renewables accounted for almost two-thirds of net capacity additions in 2016, with almost 165 gigawatts (GW) coming online, the IEA adds. A further 920GW of renewable capacity will be installed by 2022, according to its forecasts.

    Carbon Brief breaks down the IEA’s numbers for 2016 and the main elements of its renewables forecasts for the next five years.

    Solar king…

    Coal will remain the largest source of electricity generation, however growth in renewable generation will be twice as large as that of gas and coal combined over the next five years…
    TWO COMMENTS ONLY :
    Ute Collier: Please note that the 43% in the headline refers to renewable electricity, not renewable energy as stated. As the IEA report points out, renewable heat and transport are lagging behind

    Jocelyn Timperley: Thanks Ute for flagging this error, as you said the 43% referred to renewable electricity not energy, this has now been corrected.
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-renewable-electricity-set-to-grow-40-globally-by-2022

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    pat

    another dodgy headline & analysis:

    4 Oct: ClimateChangeNews: Adam Morton: Australia only wealthy nation still breaking energy emissions records
    How did a country that launched one of the world’s first major carbon pricing schemes become a rogue polluter in just five years?
    The analysis by progressive think-tank the Australia Institute found the country’s energy emissions kicked up sharply this southern winter due to increased sales of petroleum products – particularly diesel, but also petrol.

    Energy analyst Hugh Saddler, an honorary associate professor at the Australian National University, found it pushed the total above the previous record set in 2009, a recent decline in emissions from electricity generation notwithstanding…

    “The rise now is due to increased use of petroleum, but a distinctive feature about Australia compared with other Annex 1 countries is that it continues to have a heavy reliance on coal,” he said. “We’re not doing enough quickly enough to reduce that heavy reliance.”…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/10/04/australia-wealthy-nation-still-breaking-energy-emissions-records/

    4 Oct: ClimateLiabilityNews: Norway Can’t Keep Its Climate Commitments and Oil Leases, Lawsuit Says
    By Ucilia Wang
    The case, brought by the environmental groups Greenpeace and Nature and Youth will get its first hearing on Nov. 14 in the Oslo District Court. The plaintiffs are asking the court to invalidate 10 licenses granted by the government to 13 companies last year that opened up a new section of the Arctic to oil exploration…
    In a response to the lawsuit that it filed in court, the ministry said it didn’t violate the Constitution or the government’s commitment to the Paris agreement because it had carried out thorough environmental assessments before granting the permits. It added that the Paris agreement calls for reducing emissions generated within the country, not overseas…

    It has built the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund, which surpassed $1 trillion, by investing its oil and gas revenues…

    In Germany, RWE found itself a surprise defendant when a mountain guide from Peru sued the power company in 2015 for allegedly causing a glacier melt that raised the level of a nearby lake and increased the likelihood of devastating floods to the guide’s home and his city of more than 120,000 people.
    The guide, Saul Luciano Lliuya, is asking the court to award him 17,000 Euros ($20,000) to help the local authority build a dam for flood control, said Julia Grimm, policy advisor for climate finance at Germanwatch, a nonprofit that is helping Lliuya publicize his case…

    “According to current law, individual issuers of CO2 are not liable for global events such as climate change,” said Regina Wolter, an RWE spokeswoman, in an email. “However, due to the large number of global emissions of greenhouse gases from both natural and anthropogenic sources and the complexity of the climate and its natural variability, it is not possible to assign specific impacts of climate change to a single issuer.”

    A district court sided with the company and dismissed the suit last December. Lliuya then won an appeal to keep the case alive. A higher court is scheduled to hear the case on Nov. 13…

    “We need to use climate lawsuits as a tool to find political solutions, such as a price for carbon,” Grimm said. “Right now in Germany, we don’t have a day for phasing out coal. To really keep the temperature rise at 2C or even 1.5C, much more needs to be done.”
    https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2017/10/04/norway-climate-change-oil-emissions-lawsuit/

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  • #
    pat

    4 Oct: Expatica: AFP: German carmakers confident as ‘dieselgate’ lifts sales
    Germany’s powerful automakers’ federation lifted its sales forecast for 2017 Wednesday, as drivers snap up new cars offered at heavy discounts in the wake of a long-running diesel emissions scandal.
    Europe’s largest economy should buy up some 3.5 million vehicles this year, an increase of 4.0 percent over the figure for 2016, the VDA industry association said…

    Many manufacturers have offered buyers thousands of euros (dollars) off the price of new cars bought before the end of the year, hoping to earn back the favour of politicians and the public after a series of damaging scandals…
    https://www.expatica.com/de/news/Germany-economy-indicator-automobile_982312.html

    3 Oct: Bloomberg: Saudi Arabia Gets Cheapest Bids for Solar Power in Auction
    By Anthony Dipaola With assistance by Wael Mahdi
    Masdar, EDF offer to supply power for 1.7 cents/Kilowatt hour
    Plant to be first in $50 billion plan to expand renewables
    The energy ministry said Abu Dhabi’s Masdar and Electricite de France SA bid to supply power from a 300-megawatt photovoltaic plant for as little as 6.69736 halalas a kilowatt hour, or 1.79 cents, according to a webcast of the bid-opening ceremony on Tuesday in Riyadh. If awarded, that would beat the previous record for a solar project in Abu Dhabi for 2.42 cents a kilowatt-hour.

    Saudi Arabia and its neighbors are among Middle Eastern oil producers looking to renewables to feed growing domestic consumption that’s soaking up crude ***they’d rather export to generate income. While the offers submitted are remarkably low, the actual cost of power coming from the projects may be inflated by terms within the contracts that aren’t yet published, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance in Zurich…

    “There is great pressure in the Middle East to come up with an impressive headline number, and these are becoming increasingly divorced from the reality of payments,” said Jenny Chase, chief solar analyst for BNEF in Zurich…

    Saudi Arabia’s price may reflect a “base rate” paid at periods of peak demand or a price that applies only for part of the project’s life, Chase said. It also could include a payment to the winning developer, land grants or other incentives to get the solar industry started in Saudi Arabia, she said.
    “I don’t think this is possible as an all-in price of electricity from a 2019 PV project, particularly given the rising cost of debt in Saudi Arabia,” Chase said…

    The country that gets less than 1 percent of its power from renewables currently plans to develop 30 solar and wind projects over the next 10 years…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-10-03/saudi-arabia-gets-cheapest-ever-bids-for-solar-power-in-auction

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    pat

    nearly 40 comments at time of posting…all decidedly UNDERWHELMED or NEGATIVE:

    5 Oct: CourierMail: Hopes electric car policy will have Queensland charging ahead
    by Daryl Passmore
    A strategy released on Wednesday proposes transitioning the State Government’s car fleet to electric and encouraging recharging stations at parking areas in public transport hubs.

    The 16-point blueprint also flags expanding the recently-unveiled “electric super highway network” of fast-charging points from Coolangatta to Cairns, especially in tourist regions.
    A trial of electric public transport vehicles, including driverless shuttles, is also being investigated along with charging facilities to encourage a shift to electric freight trucks.
    But the strategy lacks any specific targets, instead proposing the establishment of a Queensland Electric Vehicle Council, with industry, government and community representatives to drive the future direction.

    It was announced on Wednesday at the official opening of the production facility of Brisbane-based company Tritium, which is producing hi-tech charging stations for the local and international market with the help of a $2.5 million government grant…
    Electric Vehicle Council of Australia CEO Behyad Jafari said: “Queensland has today jumped out ahead of the rest of the nation by joining the global movement toward electric vehicles.
    “The benefit of this leadership to Queensland businesses, households and the environment will be significant in the years ahead.’’

    Very few of the world’s 60 models of electric cars are available in Australia, which has one of the lowest levels on the planet. Only 0.1 per cent of new car sales here last year were electric.
    But that is expected to rise to 7.7 per cent within five years and reach more than one in five by 2030…

    The strategy says a shift to electric vehicles will help support the state’s push for a 50 per cent renewable energy target by charging at times of peak renewables generation.
    ***And it says they could even help keep Queenslanders’ power bills down.

    “As household and business grid electricity demand decreases and solar PV energy production increases, Queensland’s per capita grid electricity consumption will continue to fall over the coming decade…
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/hopes-electric-car-policy-will-have-queensland-charging-ahead/news-story/eef02ed22d7406184159e2bdbe0f1684

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    pat

    read all:

    4 Oct: WUWT: Mann Claims Climate is Not Debatable – at an Academic Freedom Event
    by Eric Worrall
    h/t Willie Soon – Michael Mann has complained about Climate “Deniers” being given a platform, when speaking at an event held to honour academics targeted by the House Un-American Activities Committee in 1954…READ ALL
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/04/mann-claims-climate-is-not-debatable-at-an-academic-freedom-event/

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    pat

    4 Oct: Accuweather: US winter forecast: La Niña to fuel abundant snow in Rockies; Bitterly cold air to blast Midwest
    By Jillian MacMath
    Some chilly winter weather is in store for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, with January threatening to bring the coldest air of the season. Although however cold, low temperatures will pale in comparison to those in the northern Plains where the mercury is set to dip to minus 30 degrees Fahrenheit at times…

    Frigid air to take hold in northern Plains
    Arctic blasts are set to freeze the northern Plains this winter with temperatures sinking to subzero levels on a regular basis.
    Temperatures could plummet to minus 30 F at times in the Dakotas, Pastelok said…

    The winter of 2016/2017 spawned colossal storms, dropping 140 percent of normal snowfall over the northern Plains and northern Rockies, according to Pastelok…
    “I think the Bitterroot chain all the way down to the Wasatch region in the central and northern Rockies has a good shot to be above normal on snowfall this season,” Pastelok said…
    The Cascades are also predicted to benefit from abundant snowfall.
    “It’s a good area to head out to if you’re a big skier,” Pastelok said…
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894

    3 Oct: InsideClimateNews: The Most Powerful Evidence Climate Scientists Have of Global Warming
    The oceans hold the story of a planet warming as fossil fuels are burned. Here is what scientists have discovered, in four charts.
    By Sabrina Shankman and Paul Horn
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03102017/infographic-ocean-heat-powerful-climate-change-evidence-global-warming

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    pat

    re the writer: Simon Kuper is a British author and sports journalist. He writes about sports “from an anthropologic perspective – Wikipedia

    5 Oct: Financial Times: How experts can regain our trust
    ‘They can learn from Trump, who communicates in stories and images rather than numbers and jargon’
    by Simon Kuper

    I wrote recently that with Brexit, the UK is experimenting on itself. The Trump administration is doing something similar: it’s testing the theory that the US can be run without experts

    Experts are out of fashion. Populists dismiss them as doofus elitists without common sense. But Steven Sloman, cognitive scientist at Brown University, says we’ll always need experts. That’s because most of us are ignorant about almost everything. It couldn’t be otherwise, argues Sloman: the workings of a fridge are complex, let alone the economy or the climate. Common sense usually isn’t enough because complex systems are rarely intuitive. Nor can everyone acquire all-purpose expertise: the brain has only about one-16th the memory storage space of a low-end thumb drive. So a “cognitive division of labour” is essential, says Sloman. We’ll simply have to put our faith in experts. They aren’t wiser than ordinary people — they just have more expertise. Here are some ways that they can restore trust:

    • Don’t argue with people who reject expert knowledge. Ignore them. Climate rejectionists (often cogs in the fossil-fuel lobby’s anti-expert infrastructure) will never accept scientific opinion, no matter how many facts are given. Debating them in the media only advertises their beliefs, says Stephan Lewandowsky, psychologist at Bristol University. ***(He and others cited here spoke at a recent conference (LINK) organised by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre.)

    • Despite uncertainty, experts should give clear advice. Lewandowsky advises stating and then repeating findings before qualifying them with uncertainty. His model message is: “We know we are warming the climate. We know we are warming the climate. We are uncertain about how much warmer your backyard will be in 39 years.”

    • Experts should advertise their practical uses. US Republicans believed in science as long as science brought technological advances, such as putting men on the moon, says Lewandowsky. As the science-technology link weakened from the 1970s, many Republicans went off science.

    • Teach schoolchildren sourcing rather than facts. Knowing stuff is overvalued. You can find the facts on Google. The trick is knowing which source to trust: big studies by accredited academics, or some random Facebook post.
    https://www.ft.com/content/b9e11ee6-a88c-11e7-ab55-27219df83c97

    ***26 Sept: EuropeanCommission: EU Science Hub: EU4FACTS: Evidence for policy in a post-fact world
    Annual Conference of the Joint Research Centre
    https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/eu4facts

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    Amber

    Sounds like Canberra has taken a chapter out of the NOAA
    book of temperature adjustments . What’s next a station 1 meter from the
    end of the take -off runway ?

    10