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On Sunday, Goulburn got colder than the BOM thought was possible (and a raw data record was “adjusted”).

The BOM got caught this week auto-adjusting cold extremes to be less cold. Lance Pidgeon of the unofficial BOM audit team noticed that the thermometer at Goulburn airport recorded – 10.4°C at 6.17am on Sunday morning, but the official BOM climate records said it was -10.0°C. (What’s the point of that decimal place?) Either way this was a new record for Goulburn in July. (The previous  coldest ever July morning was -9.1°C. The oldest day in Goulburn was in August 1994 when it reached -10.9°C).

Apparently this was an automated event where the thermometer recorded something beyond a set limit, and the value put into the official database was the artificial limit. Since colder temperatures have already been recorded in Goulburn, who thought it was a good idea to trim all future minus-ten-point-somethings as if they were automatically “spurious”?

Yesterday, the BOM have acknowledged the error and at first deleted the -10.0 figure, replacing it with a blank space. Then today, after Jennifer Marohasy’s post, they’ve corrected it.

You might think a half degree between friends is not that significant, but this opens a whole can of worms in so many ways — what are these “limits”, do they apply equally to the high side records, who set them, how long has this being going on, and where are they published? Are the limits on the high temperatures set this close to previously recorded temperatures? How many times have raw records been automatically truncated?

This raises questions about what is “raw” data?

Perhaps most importantly, Jennifer Marohasy, I and the whole BOM audit team had been told that the Climate Data Online (CDO) represented real raw temperatures. Now apparently it does not. Raw is not necessarily raw it seems, but pre-adjusted and possibly by unpublished, unknown methods? The CDO data is the only data that matters for long term climate studies. To a scientist, shouldn’t the real raw data be kind of sacred?

Marohasy uses a simple plot of minimum temperatures recorded at Goulburn and a normal curve to show that the BOM choice of -10.0 would be expected to cut off normal real raw measurements.

Goulburn, minimum temperatures, adjusted, tmin, graph, normal curve.

 

Who knew that they had set up “limits” on thermometer readings to filter out the “spurious” extremes?

This is yet another way to bias the long term so-called “raw” climate data. Thanks to a belief in Man-Made-Global-Warming, researchers might have a mindset that temperatures can only naturally break records on the high side, so they may have set asymmetrical high and low limits. There’s no way to know until the BOM provides the details. But if the if the top-end limit is set at 52C, while the bottom end limit is set at -10 — a temperature that have already been recorded in recent history — this would be, yet another, artificial bias. High end noise might be considered “real” while low end real data might be considered “spurious”.

Where are these methods published, or is it another secret process?

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On Sunday, Goulburn got colder than the BOM thought was possible (and a raw data record was "adjusted")., 9.5 out of 10 based on 161 ratings

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240 comments to On Sunday, Goulburn got colder than the BOM thought was possible (and a raw data record was “adjusted”).

  • #
    A C Osborn

    Well who would have thought that Raw is not actually Raw any more.
    If BOM are doing it can almost be guaranteed all the other “Data Manipulators” are also doing it.

    405

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      The Shorter Oxford Dictionary gives the following definitions of “raw”, among others:

      1. Not prepared for use. 2. Natural state, unprocessed, not yet manufactured … 3. Of measurements, statistical data, etc., Not yet analysed or evaluated, unadjusted, uncorrected. [My emphasis].

      So, by definition, and as often found in bureaucracies, the truth of the matter is hidden in plain sight.

      By omitting to give details of how and why, and with what justification and mandate, they make these “adjustments” and “corrections”, they are being highly economical with the truth in regard to providing the public service, they are paid to provide. [Again, my emphasis].

      283

    • #
      Manfred

      The BOM may remove ‘extreme’ recorded measurements as statistical outliers, so as not distort the preordained distribution required to fit the meme.
      Common statistical practice to dismiss outliers from a data set, BUT NEVER EVER to mess with the RAW DATA.

      363

    • #
      Bulldust

      Sounds like the BoM measurements are closer to medium rare.

      134

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        It reminds me of that moment a kid gets caught at night, with their hand in the bikkie jar, as the kitchen light is turned on by a cranky parent…..

        Clearly as a face saving exercice, they need to up the upper limit to +60C and the lower limit to -20C ( in preparation of the coming LIA…he he )

        134

    • #
      Geoff

      We are facing models that predict run away global warming. Such models are generated by the world’s elite scientists. Think of the consequences if mathematical models are proven to not represent raw data. It means we could NEVER trust government employees in most countries. These public servants would be proven to be thieves and spivs. This cannot be allowed. We MUST destroy the western world’s economies before it is clearly shown that many public servants are crooks.

      143

      • #
        Geoff

        Or put it another way, “Climate Change has morphed from a religion to a full blown ponzi scam”. It is now only about the money and how to get some. When the USA’s EPA withdrew support the money tide went out. People are lying and cheating to get the remains.

        91

  • #

    Once upon a time if a scientist perceived a possible error (e.g. equipment malfunction), they had the option of simply reporting no result. The idea of making up a number would have been abhorent.

    That the Bureau think it is OK to just make up a number (-10.0) because it was/is more likely than -10.4 as a minimum for Goulburn in July is truly extraordinary. The Burea now truly practices a post modern version of science.

    794

    • #

      Adjusting reality to fit their model.

      394

    • #
      RobK

      The BoM methodology should be clearly spelled out. That anyone has to ask is a travesty.

      273

    • #
      Leonard Lane

      Seems that the Australian government has its own “Swamp” in Canberra and national agencies such as BOM. And, further this Swamp needs to be drained and filled in with honest and decent government policies and people who are patriots and wish to serve their country.
      Tinkering with the Swamp doesn’t work. It must be drained and refilled with good people, real public servants.

      333

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Certainly, the term, “Public Servant” is a misnomer, they do not work, “for the public”, and neither do they take instruction from “the public”. In this part of the world, it seems that they either work for the politicians, or for political appointees.

        In the UK, they are referred to as “Civil Servants”, because they work to uphold Civil (as opposed to Military) law, in whatever passes for civilisation in the UK today.

        Back in the day when the UK had a embryonic space program, at Woomera, in South Australia, there was a joke going the circuit: Q: Why is a British Space Rocket, like a Civil Servant? A: Because you can’t fire them, and they won’t work. Boom-tish.

        253

    • #
      sophocles

      Needless to say, it means the database can now only be considered unreliable, which is the worst aspect. This particular modification was noticed. How many have `gone before’ which haven’t been noticed?

      In the absence of truly reliable data, even an audit is worthless.

      343

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I think its worth making sure this little example of what appears to be a “quiet homogenisation” is always remembered, and brought out whenever an enquiry is made.

        After all, if you have modification fo raw data, trust = zero….

        #DataFail

        133

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Jo / Mods :

          It could be worth looking at this smart grid/smart meters a bit deeper – you can see how the “smart grid” is all about JIT ( just in time ) power, similar to what SA are pursuing, and Australia is being set up for. Its worth noting that there is such a tight rein on the power generation that it keeps people locked down…..

          The use of smart meters and IOT to drop out your appliances when there just isnt enough power….

          https://www.technocracy.news/index.php/2016/04/22/flashback-technocracy-smart-grid-green-economy/

          “The Energy Policy Act of 2005, Title XII-Electricity authorized the creation of a self-regulatory electric reliability organization (ERO) that spans North America with FERC oversight in the U.S. The organization that was authorized was NERC – the North American Energy Reliability Council and it includes both Canada and Mexico.

          The magnitude of the corruption becomes clear in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 where Congress mandates specific standards for appliances including integration of smart technologies into the home, technologies for peak shaving, grid policy, federal money for development of “smart technologies” and “to conduct research to advance the use of wide-area measurement and control networks including data mining, visualization, advanced computing, and secure and dependable communications in a highly-distributed environment” and much more. The following is Sec. 1306 (d) – Smart Grid Functions:

          (d) SMART GRID FUNCTIONS.—The term ‘‘smart grid functions’’ means any of the following:

          (1) The ability to develop, store, send and receive digital information concerning electricity use, costs, prices, time of use, nature of use, storage, or other information relevant to device, grid, or utility operations, to or from or by means of the electric utility system, through one or a combination of devices and technologies.

          (2) The ability to develop, store, send and receive digital information concerning electricity use, costs, prices, time of use, nature of use, storage, or other information relevant to device, grid, or utility operations to or from a computer or other control device.

          (3) The ability to measure or monitor electricity use as a function of time of day, power quality characteristics such as voltage level, current, cycles per second, or source or type of generation and to store, synthesize or report that information by digital means.

          (4) The ability to sense and localize disruptions or changes in power flows on the grid and communicate such information instantaneously and automatically for purposes of enabling automatic protective responses to sustain reliability and security of grid operations.

          (5) The ability to detect, prevent, communicate with regard to, respond to, or recover from system security threats, including cyber-security threats and terrorism, using digital information, media, and devices.

          (6) The ability of any appliance or machine to respond to such signals, measurements, or communications automatically or in a manner programmed by its owner or operator without independent human intervention.

          (7) The ability to use digital information to operate functionalities on the electric utility grid that were previously electro-mechanical or manual.

          (8) The ability to use digital controls to manage and modify electricity demand, enable congestion management, assist in voltage control, provide operating reserves, and provide frequency regulation.

          (9) Such other functions as the Secretary may identify as being necessary…..”

          40

    • #
      Gazman

      Sadly, the result is the death of any trust at all in the science. Where does one go when the raw data is now just make-believe?

      193

    • #
      rk

      Nothing epitomizes the stupidity and incompetence of the BOM more than their effort on the 18th of June 2013 when they couldn’t forecast fog more than 20 minutes ahead at Adelaide and resulted in two Virgin and Qantas B737s diverting to Mildura when only 80 klms from Adelaide. Then Mildura closed with fog again unforecast by our BOM forecasters in Adelaide, with Qantas just getting in visual whilst Virgin landed totally blind with only 535 kg of fuel left with the crew never seeing the runway. A three year investigation by the ATSB never resulted in any of these idiots being demoted or affected. For any of them to talk of highs in the Bight or forecast anything, anytime, or pronounce on future weather shows the level of their divorce from reality.

      90

  • #
    King Geo

    How about BOM claiming that this June in Perth was the hottest on record – 21.4 degrees (2 degrees over average for the Perth Metro site) – mind you the first 10 days of July based on current/predicted data is shaping up to be ~ 2 degrees below average. Fair enough there are swings and roundabouts but here is the major problem. BOM are comparing the record 2017 June maximum temperature at the Perth Metro site at Mt Lawley (1994 – present) with vintage temperature data from the previous official Perth BOM site at Kings Park (1876 – 1992), ~ 6km to the south. The problem here is that the original Kings Park site is located next to the vast Kings Park forest (wall to wall trees) and also the wide expanses of the Swan River estuary. The Kings Park site is clearly located in a “cooler setting”. Do BOM make a correction factor? Of course not. Do they tell the MSM that the temperature reading are from two different sites? Of course not. There is only one word for this – deception!!!

    504

    • #
      toorightmate

      The above average temperature of June was CLIMATE CHANGE.
      The cool spell at the start of July is weather.

      314

    • #
      Graeme #4

      I recall in the 50s and 60s when Perth had two reported temperatures on nightly TV – the “official” temperature from the cooler site at Kings Park, and the more accepted warmer Perth temperature, recorded at a CBD jeweller’s shop. It was widely acknowledged that the official temperature didn’t accurately represent the rest of Perth. There was an excellent summary of the step changes, trending upwards, each time the official Perth measuring site has been moved, from Kings Park to East Perth then to Mt Lawley. (Can’t currently locate this summary though.)

      92

      • #
        King Geo

        Graeme #4 you are correct. BOM moved its site from Kings Park to East Perth in 1967 – this site was used until 1992. But this site is adjacent to the Perth CBD (just north) and well away from the Kings Park forest. So it is like Mt Lawley, a warmer site location than Kings Park. The issue here is BOM not informing the MSM and therefore the public about these site re-locations or their respective geographic positions wrt being “cooler” or “warmer” sites. Yes BOM are masters of deceit and yes like NOAA are puppets of the IPCC’s “AGW Doctrine”. Don’t be surprised if the Trump Administration pulls NOAA into line. Can’t see that happening here in Oz. Likewise the UK’s Met Office are puppets of the IPCC.

        172

        • #
          Graeme #4

          The Kings Park site would also have been cool since it was right at the top of the hill and so copped the early sea breezes. I worked close to the East Perth site in the 70s, and although it was warmer than KP, it also benefited from the early sea breezes coming up the river and sweeping up Hill St. Don’t know the current Mt Lawley site, but I’m presuming that it would be much warmer than the previous two sites. So every time BOM trumpets that Perth is warmer, I believe that a lot of this warmth comes from re-siting the measurement site.

          111

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          King Geo.

          Do not understate the part that elements of the MSM play in this deceit. A diligent media would not need to be told these things more than once.

          50

          • #
            King Geo

            Ted.

            As you know the majority of the newspaper MSM is “left”. So in Oz, with the exception of the News Corp owned MSM outlets e.g. Herald Sun (Melb) & Daily Telegraph (Sydney), all you will read about is “AGW Propaganda”. Forget the Fairfax Group – they paint an “Armageddon Type Scenario” almost on a daily basis, ie 6 degree rise in Global Temps & 6m SL rise in the near future. The problem is a lot of folk believe this crap.

            60

  • #

    In 2010 I woke to a freezing morning on the 17th of October. It was so cold for the time of year (3.0 C mid-north coast NSW) I checked the official min temp on the net when it became available. There had been a colder October morning in 1992 (2.8 C) but that was on the first of the month. 3.0 mid-spring is pretty freakish. (Our airport measured a wintry 1.5 that morning…but airports are probably pretty good places for cold air to pool.)

    Normally I don’t check daily minima but this was so interesting I referred back to it later in the day. 3.0 had become 3.5 by afternoon. So I wondered how often this sort of adjustment happens.

    That’s all I can say on the matter.

    314

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Weather equipment at airports is there to give immediate, and high quality, meteorological information for the purpose of air traffic safety. It gets to be fun, trying to land a light plane when you have hot thermals rising from the tarmac.

      For that reason, most airfield meteorological readings tend to be unsuited for inclusion in the wider geographic area. I am wondering how many of these specialized sites are deliberately not excluded, if the local readings just happen to be better aligned with the overall political meme. I wonder if there is a way to find out?

      122

    • #
      Glen Michel

      We have two readings; Airport- at 1095meters and a site at 955 meters,where it positioned near a gully and therefore prone to low minima due to inversion. The higher altitude site delivers a lower maxima and conversely, a higher minima.We are in between. A Dogs breakfast you can be sure!

      61

      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        Years ago I used to work on the Ag produce display at our local show in May.

        Two identities used to vie for the top prize with a collection of vegetables, making it a magnificent display. Both lived up towards the foot of the mountain range.

        The show date was changed to September. This wiped out one of the exhibitors, but the other, to everybody’s amazement, maintained his display. His explanation was that they were “above the frost line”, right at the foot of the range. I never got to researching the issue, but was aware that many house sites were selected in the early days for having less severe frost than other locations.

        40

  • #
    JohnM

    I think we’re getting into a time when there is so much money riding on the global warming scam that temperature data will be fudged not only by individuals but by national meteorological services.
    What’s bumping recent figures up by 0.5C or so matter if there’s millions or even billions of dollars at stake?
    When this happens we might as well pack up and go home because it will mean that scientific integrity is a thing of the past and nothing can be trusted.

    374

    • #
      bullocky

      ‘What’s bumping recent figures up by 0.5C or so matter if there’s millions or even billions of dollars at stake?’
      -
      ‘Consensus’ science provides a safe house for commercial and ideological interests alike.

      184

    • #
      AndyG55

      In 2013 (iirc) Sydney Observatory Hill Automatic weather station recorded 45.3ºC.

      It was there in the summary next day (I so wish I had kept a screen capture of it)

      It was recorded as a “record™” of 45.8ºC half a degree warmer than what the AWS recorded.

      The previous record was set in 1939 at… wait for it……… 45.3ºC

      That incident made me realise just how deep the AGW scam went.

      82

  • #
    richard

    Google “Record high temperature” … …You get about 7,910,000 results (0.61 seconds).

    Google “Record low temperature” … …You get about 148,000,000 results (1.15 seconds)Even Google cannot “hide the decline”

    https://www.iceagenow.info/no-hiding-decline/

    255

  • #
    RobertR

    The phantom global warming that we are meant to feel while we are shivering in our boots because of record cold weather is just like the Emperor’s new cloths that we can’t see but must admire. What a dangerous joke all this is!

    354

    • #
      Allen Ford

      No wonder the BOM successfully shafted the audit called for a few years back.

      Whatever the boneheads running the BOM are, scientists they ain’t.

      Same could be said, also, of the personnel in academe calling themselves, Climate Scientists.

      A foresee a flock of chickens finally coming home to roost.

      194

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Actually its worse…I suspect the chooks will be the size of mutant cassowaries and twice as agro….

        This is the problem with the Left – they leave only destruction in their wake.

        Senator McCarthy was spot on.

        143

  • #
    TdeF

    The entire Man Made Global Warming is based on 0.5C, an amount which the BOM clearly is disposable, noise, at least at the low end. If they really are rounding up 0.5C, why bother recording to 0.01? The entire world temperature increase may be due to BOM rounding and similar shenanigans. The ‘warmest ever’ is decided to 0.001C when the temperature is not changing at all and we are led to believe by the BOM that -0.5C is trivial? It is very surprising too that anyone would intervene in this, study web sites, note the problem, change it or remove it. That shows a highly political organization, not a science one.

    394

    • #
      toorightmate

      No, no, no, no, no.
      James Hansen has told us, in no uncertain terms, that the oceans will boil.

      123

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Did he happen to mention where, and what volume of the oceans? No, I thought not.

        93

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          The ammount of energy required to boil oceans would extinguish all life on earth well before we got anywhere 40C in the water…the temp of a nice bath…..

          Clearly “boiling oceans” was providing pure low brow / low intelligence theatrics, clearly not linked to actual science….

          73

          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            I have yet to find anything that Hansen has said, that can be linked to actual, repeatable, and verifiable science.

            31

      • #
        TdeF

        There comes a time when everyone has to ask themselves if what they are being told is true. This has been in full Ecopolypse mode, the day after Tomorrow mode for 30 years now. Is it warmer? Have the seas risen? Are droughts and storms and bushfires more frequent? Is there any real threat to humanity from the weather? On your last trip to the beach, did you notice anything at all different? Has the snow vanished forever?

        I would have to say that if it is obvious that nothing has changed in the last 100 years and the waterfront looks like it has been there for a century or two unchanged, the oceans are not going to boil or rise and if the Polar bears or the Great Barrier Reef have a problem, that happens and has been happened many times before. No, ordinary people across the world are becoming very suspicious that it is all made up. Especially when their lights go off for no reason at all, or their electricity bills go up x10 or they lose their jobs. Or it actually gets noticeably colder in the middle of what they are told by their trusted politicians is Global Warming.

        233

        • #
          Allen Ford

          Fake science seems to have joined fake news!

          123

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Tdef,

          Let us not forget that the lights going off, and the price of electricity going through the roof, and people losing their jobs, are all direct consequences of climate change, or at least consequences of the political responses to the science of climate change.

          Climate Scientists, and the Politicians they advise, are Yin and Yang. When looked at from that perspective,it almost seems as if it has been orchestrated.

          Heads should roll.

          31

      • #
        sophocles

        toorightmate said:

        James Hansen has told us, in no uncertain terms, that the oceans will boil.

        He’s right. Sure, they will boil, and when they do, they’ll boil dry.
        You will notice, however, he didn’t give a date.

        It will happen in about another five billion years or so, give or take the odd five hundred million, when the Sun reaches its old age and begins to die. It will expand to somewhere around the orbit of Mars, or so the astronomers say. That is a few years beyond the lifetime of our species.

        So don’t hold your breath waiting for it to happen.

        102

        • #
          TdeF

          Perhaps we will all know at the Restaurant at the End of the Universe? When the stars go out and the universe implodes. On a human scale, nothing has happened after two world wars and over 100 years of industrialization. The places I have visited around the world look exactly the same, but James Hansen, Brian Cox, Sir Paul Nurse and Stephen Hawking must be right. Why else would they say such things? It not just about them. Is it?

          111

  • #
    bob sykes

    Some climate/weather bureaus have a rounding policy of recording n.5 as n+1. This introduces a systematic warming bias into the data. You might have been taught in school to round n.5 to either up or down to the nearest even number. This has the advantage of averaging out any measurement error.

    154

  • #
    pat

    5 Jul: Guardian: Graham Readfearn: Climate Change Authority loses last climate scientist
    Prof David Karoly, of the University of Melbourne, has just finished his term on the authority’s board – the only member to stick it out for the full five years.
    Karoly says without someone to replace him, the authority will struggle to fulfil its legal mandate.

    He told me:
    “I think that it is critically important that at least one member of the Climate Change Authority is an expert and experienced climate change scientist. Such a member is needed to provide information and ***interpretation on the latest climate change science publications and data.”…READ ON
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2017/jul/05/climate-change-authority-loses-last-climate-scientist

    72

    • #
      Glen Michel

      What we need is a debate between Karoly and the ONP dude – Roberts. Empirical evidence and all that. As hopeless Robert’s is I think he would put Karoly to the sword.

      62

    • #
      Cementafriend

      Karoly is supposef to have qualifications in maths and geography but he has shown from withdrawn papers that he umderstands neither. He has no qualifications or understanding about climate or heat transfer. His loss will not be noticed. He should chuck out of Melbourne Uni for giving it a baf name.

      50

  • #
    Timo Soren

    I thought the people of Austraillia lost the right (in court) to know what, if any, algorithmb BOM uses. It was about 2 years ago I believe that they refused anything what so ever with the homogen. alg. they use. So why should they release anything on Tmin algo or QC algorithms. Heck they could use rules like, ‘if the thermometer is located in a Labour’ district accept any numbers reported…”

    102

    • #
      Hivemind

      Correction: Labor electorate

      For some reason, there is no u in the political party, even though there is in the normal use of the word.

      51

  • #
    Crakar24

    Having worked in government for a number of years I believe I can shed some light on the situation.

    Firstly the temp network was designed to monitor temps in a casual way to provide basic data for bom people that should have retired years ago. The processors in place would no doubt be inadequate.

    Then along comes agw and the funding streams it presented.

    The network is still inadequate but more importantly so are the processes. The bom will be controlled by a small number of egotistical maniacs, these people will have total control over all processes within the bom they will be EL1 and EL2 rank and have a PhD in some obscure field.

    The rest of the workers will be bullied into submission and only stay quiet because the superannuation is good.

    264

    • #
      toorightmate

      Your response is very, very true, BUT the bit about super benefits is a tad understated. The super is off the planet!!!!

      122

      • #
        Lionell Griffith

        They know what they are getting is too good to be true so they are taking what they can get. They likely plan to run when things turn bad. What they fail to understand is that, if their plan to destroy technological civilization is fully implemented, there won’t be anything produced for the money they grabbed to buy.

        92

      • #
        Yonniestone

        So the thermometers have limits but the super doesn’t, hmm sounds like homogenisation of ethics.

        162

      • #
        Hivemind

        The super is only good for the old timers that joined when the CSS (Commonwealth Superanuation Scheme) was in force. It was a defined benefits scheme, 50% of retiring salary.

        It got changed to the PSS, now to the “PSS Lite”, which is only contributions + interest. No better than you get in commercial organisations.

        64

        • #
          AndyG55

          ” No better than you get in commercial organisations.”

          Except if you are a politician. ;-)

          52

    • #
      Manfred

      because the superannuation is good.

      …and they have mortgages and dependents.

      94

      • #
        Crakar24

        That plays a role yes but you need to understand the mindset of the rogue APS worker.

        Firstly they are over the years promoted through attrition not based on merit. You end up with an old boys club of like minded people.

        Defence was like this but then there was pressure to reduce numbers so vacancies through attrition have been filled by RAAF members. This has changed the culture but the BOM has not changed.

        They become a law unto themselves, they don’t follow the rules set by others ergo they think they have the power to do what they want.

        One example, ARPANSA set the rules for RF sources, a RADAR shall have a radhaz survey done every five years or when major rework is done. We have a radar that had major rework but not enough time for a survey to be completed before a trial so they decided to do a risk analysis instead.

        I stated if you do that ARPANSA WILL be informed and they will shut the place down for a year. This made my life a little difficult until a high ranking RAAF member stepped in to stop this non sense and conduct a rad haz.

        The BOM will not have a structure in place where people can voice concerns, it is a rogue department with no control hence what we see today.

        113

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I dont know if I could look my kids in the eye ( as an EL or APS ) and tell them I lied for a living.

      Sure, maybe thats what the intel organizations and pollies do, but science should transcend the lastest pollitically motivated scare-du-jour…..

      72

  • #
    pat

    5 Jul: Guardian: Mark Butler: How Australia bungled climate policy to create a decade of disappointment
    Unlike the UK, Australia has never had climate consensus – and it has been costly, argues Labor frontbencher Mark Butler in an extract from his book, Climate Wars
    In the lead-up to the 2015 general election in the United Kingdom, the leaders of the three major parties sat down together and signed a statement on climate-change policy that would seem unimaginable to Australians. They agreed that “climate change is one of the most serious threats facing the world today” and undertook “to work together across party lines to agree carbon budgets in accordance with the Climate Change Act”. They pledged “to accelerate the transition to a competitive, energy-efficient, low-carbon economy and to end the use of unabated coal for power generation”, meaning that the last coal-fired power station will be closed in the United Kingdom in 2025 at the latest.

    The 2015 UK election – true to the pledge signed by party leaders – saw no real debate over climate change or energy policy, other than a minor skirmish over the balance between onshore and offshore wind power…
    Within 12 months, UK politics was then thrown into turmoil by the referendum decision to terminate the nation’s membership of the European Union – Brexit. But in the wake of that momentous vote, the Committee on Climate Change still recommended an ambitious carbon reduction target for the five-year period 2028-32 that is equivalent to Australia committing to a 61% cut against the 2005 baseline used by the Australian government. The budget was quietly endorsed by both parties shortly after…

    On Abbott’s first full day as Liberal leader, the Greens inexplicably delivered him an enormous strategic victory, voting with him to defeat Rudd’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme…
    In the wake of that Senate defeat, Rudd invested enormous political capital in the prospects of the annual climate conference to reinvigorate momentum around climate action in Australia. But the Copenhagen conference proved to be a disaster. The optics of the meeting were dominated by a breakdown between developing nations (especially China) and the developed world. Rudd reached the end of 2009 confronted by a broad sense in the community that the consensus around climate change that appeared to have existed in 2007 lay in tatters…
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/05/how-australia-bungled-climate-policy-to-create-a-decade-of-disappointment

    MEMO TO BUTLER…COULD CLIMATEGATE HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE ALLEGED “CONSENSUS” ENDING 2009 IN TATTERS? WHY NO MENTION OF IT WHEN YOU WRITE ABOUT THE “OPTICS” OF COPENHAGEN? A REMARKABLE OMISSION.

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      OriginalSteve

      It just means the UK is going to fall apart much faster than Oz will, however I think the recent SA & Hazelwoods debacle is going some way to bring Oz up to speed as it hurtles down into the CAGW black pit…..

      It also shows how tightly the NWO bully boys have control over every political party in the UK if the leaders have all been trianed to heel like obedient dogs. Tells you a lot actually…..

      The fact the UK has also had much urban terror means that the NWO are cranking things up to fracture the UK from inside like freezing of the water inside a rock…..

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    pat

    so many interested parties, including institutional investors, insurance companies, etc:

    5 Jul: InsideClimateNews: From Beef to Palm Oil, Investors Worry about Climate Risk in the Food Industry
    Investors pressured Exxon to disclose its climate risk. Now they’re targeting food companies with similar shareholder resolutions — 131 this year.
    By Georgina Gustin
    New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli oversees the country’s third-largest ***pension fund, with $192 billion in assets, and is concerned both about ExxonMobil’s tar sands oil and about the sources of palm oil and other ingredients that go into Domino’s pizzas…

    “There are many products consumers enjoy daily that suppliers produce in ways that destroy rainforests and promote climate change,” DiNapoli said. “More and more companies recognize that by taking steps to buy palm oil or soy from suppliers that do not contribute to deforestation, they are promoting better environmental practices and protecting their shareholder value.”…

    Last week, the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, an industry group chaired by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, issued a framework for corporations to use in disclosing climate-related risks to investors, lenders and ***insurance underwriters…
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05072017/agriculture-climate-change-risk-investors-share-holder-resolutions-beef-palm-oil

    plenty of shilling for wind and solar from Lovins. lengthy, but read all:

    4 Jul: CarbonBrief: The Carbon Brief Interview: Amory Lovins
    Amory Lovins is the co-founder and chief scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute. He has served as energy advisor to major firms and governments in more than 65 countries, including the US. He has authored 31 books and 600 papers, including Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions for the New Energy Era and the influential 1976 essay Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken?…
    This interview was conducted by Jocelyn Timperley on 8 June 2017 at Chatham House in London.

    LOVINS: The new US secretary of energy [Rick Perry] believes that nuclear and, for that matter, coal plants are vital to keeping the lights on because they are what he calls “baseload”, and he apparently believes that they run all the time…
    But the notion that we need nuclear or other large thermal plants to run the grid reliably is quite obsolete: it’s a bit like debating the merits of horse and buggy when we’re building a modern highway system.
    No doubt the US energy secretary will do his best to try to revive the dying nuclear and coal plants dying of an incurable attack of market forces. But it’s a bit like defibrillating a corpse, you know: it will jump, but it won’t revive, because the economics are so dreadful…

    LOVINS: Germany’s Energiewende is a remarkable effort that’s been taking shape over decades, since the 1970s; I’ve had some part in that process…
    It has not subsidised renewables, for example, but simply provided an orderly way for buying them and allowing them to connect to the grid and be dispatched whenever they’re cheaper to operate, which is virtually always, because they have no fuel…
    What happened was, of course, as renewables came in they were the cheapest to run, they drove down the wholesale price of electricity by more than half, and the existing fossil fuelled power plants were able to run fewer and fewer hours, because renewables took away much of their market, especially more lucrative parts…

    LOVINS: Well, the main barriers to large scale reliable renewable deployment are really between the ears of people who think that the way we used to run the grid is the only way to run the grid…
    And the operators have simply learnt to run their grids the way a conductor leads a symphony orchestra. No instrument plays all the time, but the ensemble together continuously creates beautiful music…
    Many people who have succumbed to the baseload myth – that you need the big coal, nuclear gas plants to keep the lights on – simply are not grasping the level of innovation that’s already come to grid operations on both the supply and demand side…ETC
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/carbon-brief-interview-amory-lovins

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      Lovins describes Germany’s energy policy as “efficiency and renewables”. By “efficiency” he means all that brown coal, black coal, organic waste and Russian gas Germany does and should burn (added to the huge amount of nuke power the country still generates). He just doesn’t want to say it. To be fair, Amory does distinguish solar at 50+ degrees north from “efficiency”. I would too.

      So Germany isn’t really doing the symphony-orchestra-grid thing. South Australia, however…
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HoGDtJd-GhY

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      Annie

      He, (Lovins),, must be residing on some strange parallel planet? I wonder what Tony from Oz makes of this? On second thoughts, it probably won’t do his blood pressure a lot of good and he’d better ignore the foolishness.

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    pat

    4 Jul: Washington Times: Signaling political virtue via the Paris accord
    ‘No, you’re not still in Paris, and you’re welcome’
    by Christopher Horner, Competitive Enterprise Institute
    The latest in political virtue signaling is the “We Are Still In” movement, a self-described group of “mayors, governors, college and university leaders, businesses, and investors” who claim they plan to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement independently of United States policy.

    Sounds bold, but the group’s own recruiting material acknowledges this commits them to nothing. Specifically, “there is no cost associated with signing the letter.”…
    That means they are not “Still In” for President Obama’s related promise — which President Trump canceled — to pay 22 percent of $100 billion, every year, forever, into the United Nations Green Climate Fund. The fund has just started up and already its intended recipients insist their desired annual haul is closer to $450 billion — of which $99 billion a year would come from the U.S.

    Just that entry-level U.S. share of payments into the Green Climate Fund comes to around $22 billion per year, or about $70 dollars a head. In the case of particularly boastful “Still In” signatory Seattle, that would mean hundreds of millions out of its municipal coffers, annually, sent to foreign countries to pay for more expensive, less efficient energy sources. Thankfully for its residents, Seattle is not actually “Still In” the Paris treaty.

    Notably, “Still In” includes some businesses either eager to strike a “green” pose for marketing’s sake or with plans to game such systems for profit at your expense. Of course, styling demands for harmful policies designed to satisfy certain interests as economic boons is nothing new. Remember, many of these parties also advocated the doomed “cap and trade” legislation.

    They are not the ones who will pay the costs, which will fall on American consumers. Here’s how…READ ON
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jul/4/paris-climate-accord-withdrawal-fought-by-leftist-/

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    Graham Richards

    With the USA having dumped the Paris Accord the World Wide Web of climate alarmists need to move at full speed to implement their plans to kill off coal,oil,gas etc.
    If you take note of these activities here in Oz since the Trump dumped Paris, it’s pretty obvious that Turnbull has tried to speed up the crippling of our energy supply.
    Turnbull is a very dangerous man set on a very course by his more than dangerous bosses.
    Time to stop detailing temperatures & cahhbon & concentrate on getting rid of Turnbull and the other destroyers. Abbott started out well on that path & as predicted by Christopher Moncton he was mugged & deposed. If that doesn’t alarm you all then all is lost!

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      PeterS

      I’m afraid all is lost already. It’s not just Turnbull that’s the problem – it’s much of the LNP and ALP. In other words both major parties are destined to wreck this nation. The only way to turn things around is for the voters to stop voting for either major party and their alliances such as the Greens and National Party. I’m afraid much of the public are not willing to do that. Sure there will be a significant protest vote going towards other minor parties but not enough to break apart the two major parties and shock them into realizing we need this nation to go down a totally different and much better path.

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        Graeme No.3

        At the moment I agree, but in 12 months when the consequences of higher and higher electricity prices have started working their way through the economy starting a recession, with unemployment, higher prices and a slump in the retail sector, there will be a change in perception.
        It won’t need to be much as there are reported to be only 4,400 Liberal Party members in NSW. Extrapolating that nationwide it isn’t enough to win one seat. The only unemployment politicians care about is there own, and one side may change their tactics.
        The Labor Party will be exalted until they notice that they aren’t polling any better. Some then might start thinking. Especially as the recession turns into a depression, as a result of both parties following the same policies, and the voters get restless.

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          James

          Didn’t the Labor party in WA change some of their energy policy prior to winning the WA election recently. I believe they decided not to privatize their electricity supply. What policies do they have in terms of destroying their electricity supply, like SA?

          I think the Labour party might be the first to break from the madness, to return jobs to their base, in the process and win the election as well. If they are smart they should be studying how Trump won over the traditional democrat base to the Republicans, leaving the Democrat party with an assortment of victims and freaks.

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            PeterS

            That has crossed my mind. I wonder if Shorten will do a Bob Hawke and surprise everyone. Who knows he might even reduce taxes and start building new generation coal fired power stations and leave the LNP for dead – and buried. I doubt it but stranger things have happened. If Shorten manages to do all that I will congratulate him. We will see.

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    PeterS

    Well if raw temperature data needs to be adjusted for whatever reason then why trust the raw data in the first place? Throw it out and measure the real temperature in the first place. I wonder if those pretend scientists use the same argument they use about adjusting temperature data to explain away a speeding ticket. “Oh officer your raw readings of my speed need adjustment.”

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      Curious George

      There is a joke about a physicist being ticketed for running a red light. He explained to the officer that when driving really fast to a red light, you see it green (that’s physics, really). He got a ticket for speeding.

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      Rereke Whakaaro

      Does Australia not have the concept of a Citizens Initiated Referendum?

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        Graeme No.3

        No. The politicians don’t want them, esp. those that start “All politicians should be….” and mention lamp posts.

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      Greg Cavanagh

      That’s what “data infilling” is; creating data where you have none.

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    Curious George

    Nip inconvenient data in the bud. If you don’t, your grants may run dry. Elementary science.

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    ARW

    That histogram looks wobbley, skewed to the right. I wonder if there are other rounding algorothims pushing temps in favour of warming. It is a pretty significant data set at n=9558

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      Robert Swan

      Why do you think minimum temperatures are normally distributed? E.g. a lumpy local topography that shades sun and/or wind could make the temperature distribution similarly lumpy through the year.

      Glad that Marohasy has brought this to light — stealthily cooking the books — but that graph over-eggs the pudding.

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    buggs

    I wish this was something new. Back in 1999 in central Canada (geographically, not where the population lies) we had a substantial frost event in early June. Evidence was abundant in the re-seeding of crops (canola, beans, etc.) and damage to the strawberry crop (black centres to the flowers). However “the model” didn’t register it as a frost event because it “didn’t trigger the model”. Never could find clarification for those phrases and all of a sudden 1999 had a tremendously long frost free period, running from late April (no frost in May which was unusual) and then the frost in September was about two weeks late. “We” just completely ignored the actual data and the abundant physical impacts of the event (around -3 C) and a record was set.

    Honestly if I went to my former graduate school advisor and suggested I wanted to change some data because the conclusions weren’t as neat and tidy as I’d like he’d have hit me in the head with a stick.

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    Roger

    I hope to see the day when all those who have fudged, altered or abused temperature records in pursuit of the global warming scam face trial for fraud or other suitable criminal charge and are facing long prison sentences with all public service pension rights stripped from them.

    Is that too much to hope for ?

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    Dave in the States

    Cool the past and warm the present. This is exactly the kind of malfeasance the Climate Gate conspirators called for. I seriously doubt this is an isolated incident. I strongly suspect this sort of corruption of data is widespread and has been going on for years.

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      Greg Cavanagh

      Jennifer Marohasy and others have identified many errors and suspicious activities over the years.
      Certainly nothing unusual about it.

      Even the official temperature record of New Zealand, when challenged in a court of law, was suddenly abandoned and replaced by a new temperature record.

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    AndyG55

    OT, but not really, because it comes to the centre of data frord..

    MICHEAL MAN IN CONTEMPT OF COURT RULING

    http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/07/05/fatal-courtroom-act-ruins-michael-hockey-stick-mann/

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      TdeF

      Michael Mann is relying on the previous ruling that the data is his intellectual property, even if paid for by the government at the time. However Mann is in a Canadian court and providing the data was part of the agreement made for the delay he himself requested in a case he brought. Incredible. So he deliberately deceived the judge and is now pitting his fame and a US ruling against the Canadian justice system.

      Now if he destroys or ‘loses’ the data or the dog eats it, he is in double trouble and at the very least loses his own case. If the data shows his graph is wrong. He loses everything. If the data does not exist he loses but perhaps not as badly and is still guilty of contempt. If the data supports his graph, it had better be good data, which make you wonder why he would take such risks by withholding it? He has painted himself into a corner. Perhaps it shows why he failed to get a PhD in Physics and had to get into Climate alarmism.

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        • #
          TdeF

          Not so sure. Ownership of R&D is by agreement at the outset.

          R&D work agreements usually cover who owns the intellectual property. On this basis patents are assigned to the employer. Vastly more ideas fail than work and this is a cost of R&D. It is unreasonable for an employee to claim the one idea which works belongs to him but not all the failed ideas and costs.

          Amazingly Amazon is now the largest patenter in the US. After them IBM, Google, Microsoft, Apple etc., drowning the US PTO in tens of thousands of patents a year in the name of the companies. Without agreements you have the situation where employees can sue employers for stealing their ideas, ideas they were paid to develop. There have been some notorious cases. It is a case of employer beware, not employee beware.

          However universities and taxpayer funded R&D groups like the CSIRO seem to be happy for fully remunerated researchers to leave and set up companies with the same ideas discovered and developed while on wages and with government funding. Possibly this leads to a sharing scheme as the employer has little ability to exploit the idea and in Australia no funds for commercial development. In Australia ‘pure’ research usually excludes commercial development as the dirty end of R&D.

          I would expect Mann is in this free category. However using this device to actually hide his university and even thesis data is a novel idea. You would think that the university owns the data but clearly they are not interested in fighting. Using this legal device to refuse public access to what is data obtained at public expense, not private ideas is a Mann invention and possibly unethical at the least.

          Howover to agree solemnly to release the data to get a tactical advantage in a court case and then refuse what you have promised unconditionally is contempt of court. He is cooked. He cannot retrospectively change an agreement with the court. A deal is a deal.

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      Peter C

      Penn State climate scientist, Michael ‘hockey stick’ Mann commits contempt of court in the ‘climate science trial of the century.’ Prominent alarmist shockingly defies judge and refuses to surrender data for open court examination

      Tim Ball came to Melbourne late last year.
      Melbourne, Wednesday, 9 November 2016, Tim Ball to give the Bob Carter Memorial Lecture
      http://joannenova.com.au/2016/11/events-in-canberra-melbourne-sydney-see-dr-tim-ball-tony-heller-and-sen-malcolm-roberts/

      I went to listen. He described his court case with Michael Mann in detail!
      Now Tim is a man who has gone right out there and taken the fight to the enemy in a very personal way. He put his retirement and his wife’s retirement on the line to fight the egregious case by Mann because Tim had called out Mann’s false science.

      I hope that Tim gets a massive judgement against Mann and even gets some of the money.

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      tom0mason

      But as other have written

      But it gets worse for the litigious Penn State professor. Close behind Dr Ball is celebrated writer Mark Steyn. Steyn also defends himself against another one of Mann’s SLAPP suits – this time in Washington DC. Steyn boldly claims Mann “has perverted the norms of science on an industrial scale.” Esteemed American climate scientist, Dr Judith Curry, has submitted to the court an Amicus Curiae legal brief exposing Mann. The world can now see that his six-year legal gambit to silence his most effective critics and chill scientific debate has spectacularly backfired.

      [I'm waiting for confirmation. It may not be that simple, if it was, I would expect Steyn or Ball would say so. But obviously people want to discuss this.] Jo

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    • #

      Do hope Mann gets his come-uppance re trial and error,
      but one source only, principia-scientific-org, seems to be
      doing the rounds on the Michael Mann contempt of court story.

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    manalive

    Good news if true but similar articles have appeared before on the PSI website.

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    Maureen S

    On the ABC 24 Breakfast (I think Monday) the weather bloke referred to “the warmest June since recording began in 1900″.

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    DaveR

    The Goulburn Airport -10.4 measurement being removed from the data, then “rounded” to -10.0, then reinstated?, followed by the revelation that raw temperatures were being adjusted even before they make the daily records is all too much.

    The deception by BOM that has been going on for years has to stop now.

    An urgent, high level enquiry into BOM practices,including homogenisation, is needed now, before real raw data is disappeared.

    By the way, the destruction or loss of primary data by the BOM, the collection of which is a key task of BOM, is a serious offence under the Public Service Act 1999 for employees and senior executives alike.

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      Dennis

      Remember that PM Abbott, when the minister responsible reported to cabinet that BoM management had admitted to errors and omissions when historic data records were compared to BoM climate change media releases, recommended that an independent audit of BoM be conducted but was out voted.

      No doubt by the majority who later voted for Turnbull to replace him.

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    pat

    ???? another day, another bit of nonsense:

    6 Jul: Guardian: Damian Carrington: Hopes of mild climate change dashed by new research
    Planet could heat up far more than hoped as new work shows temperature rises measured over recent decades don’t fully reflect global warming already in the pipeline
    Hopes that the world’s huge carbon emissions might not drive temperatures up to dangerous levels have been dashed by new research.
    The work shows that temperature rises measured over recent decades do not fully reflect the global warming already in the pipeline and that the ultimate heating of the planet could be even worse than feared.

    How much global temperatures rise for a certain level of carbon emissions is called climate sensitivity and is seen as the single most important measure of climate change. Computer models have long indicated a high level of sensitivity, up to 4.5C for a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere.
    However in recent years estimates of climate sensitivity based on historical temperature records from the past century or so have suggested the response might be no more than 3C…

    But the new work, using both models and paleoclimate data from warming periods in the Earth’s past, shows that the historical temperature measurements do not reveal the slow heating of the planet’s oceans that takes place for decades or centuries after CO2 has been added to the atmosphere.

    “The hope was that climate sensitivity was lower and the Earth is not going to warm as much,” said Cristian Proistosescu, at Harvard University in the US, who led the new research. “There was this wave of optimism.”

    The new research, published in the journal Science Advances, has ended that. “The worrisome part is that all the models show there is an amplification of the amount of warming in the future,” he said. The situation might be even worse, as Proistosescu’s work shows climate sensitivity could be as high as 6C…

    The reason the historical temperature measurements indicated a lower climate sensitivity than models or paleoclimate data is because the Earth has a fast and a slow response to increases in carbon emissions, Proistosescu said…
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/05/hopes-of-mild-climate-change-dashed-by-new-research

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      crakar24

      Ice core data shows the sensitivity to be zero

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        el gordo

        In this graph it looks like CO2 pulled us out of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), but that seems hard to reconcile with what we know.

        http://joannenova.com.au/globalwarming/graphs/vostok-ice-core-50000.jpg

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          crakar24

          at 12,000 years temp goes up to the red line then flattens out what does CO2 do AFTER this happens?

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            el gordo

            Apparently the Younger Dryas event produced a massive increase in CO2, to 400 or 425 ppm, even as temperatures at Greenland fell 12 C degrees.

            This excludes CO2 as a warming mechanism.

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          Rereke Whakaaro

          Hmm,

          When I first looked at that graph, it appeared to me that there was no consistent correlation between CO2 and temperature. But being unable to identify a mutual third party, that I could blame, I decided to say nothing. Being an engineer in the midst of scientists, that happens quite often.

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            Peter C

            Very sceptical of you Rereke!

            I would say that the correlation (as shown on the graph)was very good!

            However I would not bet on which leads which.
            Nor would I vouch for the source of the graph.

            However my qualification is the lowest imaginable.

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          Greg Cavanagh

          Lets assume for a moment that the earlier sections of the graph are just as accurate as the latter:
          Between 50K and 30K years back, the temperature slowly drops evenly through time, but the CO2 plummets and levels off. The temperature not only does not follow CO2; but there is a loose correlation and lag, but even that is not clear cut.

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            el gordo

            Greg we have to contend with irregular interstadials, lasting from 500 to 2000 years.

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          Harry Twinotter

          The graph does not show global temperature.

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        el gordo

        Dust deposition may have been the trigger for Meltwater Pulse 1A around 18,000 year BP.

        From Carpentaria Lake to northern Tasmania there were dunes hugging the Great Dividing Range and the winds were strong, so the iron and copper dust coated parts of Antarctica and the Australian Alps. Reduced albedo would have had an impact and the Southern Ocean also soaked up the nutrient rich dust.

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      Ted O'Brien.

      Far more (or less) than ” hoped”. That’s a new one!

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    mmxx

    I wonder if BOM people would accept a rounding-down of their pay packets as an acceptable methodology?

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    pat

    ***does Reuters think this is a positive for the CAGW mob?

    5 Jul: Reuters: German police disperse G20 protest with water cannon before summit
    (Reporting by Chris Stern and Hannibal Hanschke; Writing by Joseph Nasr; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)
    German police used water cannon to disperse around 500 anti-capitalist protesters overnight in the port city of Hamburg where Chancellor Angela Merkel will host leaders of the G20 leading economies in a two-day summit starting on Friday.

    Tens of thousands of protesters are expected to march in the city this week against globalization and what they say is corporate greed and ***a failure to tackle climate change.

    German authorities believe around 8,000 demonstrators were prepared to use violence, the interior minister said on Tuesday. Some 20,000 police officers will be deployed…
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-germany-protests-idUSKBN19Q0RL?il=0

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      Rereke Whakaaro

      We should note that climate change has been relegated to an afterthought, in comparison to globalization and corporate greed.

      This is a significant event. This may not signal the end of climate change as an issue. It may not even be the beginning of the end of the issue of climate change, but climate change has certainly dropped in importance, as far as the “professional” protestors are concerned.

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    David Maddison

    This is outrageous. If -10.4 is perceived as an error, why make another number, -10 to replace it? They might as well make it +54, it would be equally relevant.

    This is a fundamental violation of the scientific method and beyond that must be a practice that should get someone sacked (US = fired).

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    pat

    VIDEO WITH COOL, JAZZY MUSIC IS A HOOT. THE REST IS JUST AS FUNNY. READ ALL:

    5 Jul: WaPo: BEN SANTER: I’m a climate scientist. And I’m not letting trickle-down ignorance win
    How to fight the Trump administration’s darkness
    VIDEO : 2mins36secs: Fact Checkers Glenn Kessler and Michelle Lee examine several of President Trump’s claims from his speech announcing the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris climate accord on Thursday.

    Imagine, if you will, that you spend your entire professional life trying to do one thing to the best of your ability. In my case, that one thing is to study the nature and causes of climate change. You put in a long apprenticeship. You spend years learning about the climate system, computer models of climate and climate observations. You start filling a tool kit with the statistical and mathematical methods you’ll need for analyzing complex data sets. You are taught how electrical engineers detect signals embedded in noisy data. You apply those engineering insights to the detection of a human-caused warming signal buried in the natural “noise” of Earth’s climate. Eventually, you learn that human activities are warming Earth’s surface, and you publish this finding in peer-reviewed literature.

    You participate in rigorous national and international assessments of climate science. You try to put aside all personal filters, to be objective, to accommodate a diversity of scientific opinions held by your peers, by industry stakeholders and by governments. These assessments are like nothing you’ve ever done before: They are peer review on steroids, eating up years of your life…

    After decades of seeking to advance scientific understanding, reality suddenly shifts, and you are back in the cold darkness of ignorance. The ignorance starts with President Trump. It starts with untruths and alternative facts…

    I have to believe that even in this darkness, though, there is still ***a thin slit of blue sky…
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/07/05/im

    ***SURELY CAGW MEANS A LOT MORE THAN “A THINK SLIT OF BLUE SKY”, BEN!

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      OriginalSteve

      “Nearly a century ago, a volume of 100 papers from 100 different authors was published, challenging Einstein’s theory of relativity.

      When a reporter asked him about it, Einstein responded with a question:

      “Why 100? If I were wrong, one would be enough.”

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  • #

    Raw data is actual data – true data. Why change it? I think I know why – just start with Climategate.

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    David Maddison

    This link was posted yesterday in the previous post but you might want to read the comments which have been added since then.

    http://climatechangedispatch.com/breaking-fatal-courtroom-act-ruins-michael-hockey-stick-mann/

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    • #
      TdeF

      Lots of good follow on videos. Especially Stephen McIntyre. The ‘hide the decline’ goes back twenty years. McIntyre has the data, presumably the data being refused in the court room today. The hide the decline seems to involve two distinct things, the fact that tree rings do not respond to higher temperatures and also that they show declining temperatures in the 20th century. The pressure and bullying on authors like Briffa must have been extreme. The ‘trick’ is well explained. You have to marvel at the matter of fact way McIntyre pulls things apart and selects funny quotes and presents them in such a dry way. Entertaining.

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    Rick Bradford

    You might think a half degree between friends is not that significant

    The BOM is not friends with the truth. It is wedded to an ideology which deplores the truth and overrides it when it wants to.

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      AndyG55

      “You might think a half degree between friends is not that significant”

      It is over half the so-called “global warming” since 1900 !!

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      • #
        TdeF

        I would agree that half a degree in an average is not significant. That is the irony.

        However deleting extremes can move the average significantly, depending on how it is done. However I cannot see any physical process in which a movement of 0.5C is significant. Variations at mid latitude say in Colorado can be -40C to +40C. In temperate zones, 0 to +40 and in tropical zones 20-40. Some places like Darwin Australia varies from 31 in winter to 32 in summer. In none of them does 0.5C in an average make any difference.

        The human body though is tightly regulated and the biochemistry is particularly keyed and sensitive to 98.4F which is a magic temperature. In the physical world outside, it matters not at all.

        Possibly the only place where +0.5C in an average matters is the North Pole, where the summer average is precisely 0C, right on the melting point of ice. (Temperatures can reach +13C at the North Pole where the south pole has never passed -12C.) That is why promoters of Global Warming look so much to the highly variable ice extent in summer at the North Pole as some sort of proof of the end of the world, when it is no such thing. It is also deceptive because people reflexively think water levels rise when (floating) ice melts, which is not true. This allows the profiteers of doom to sell windmills. It is all about those maddening monster windmills, the curse of our generation, wreaking devastation in South Australia at huge expense. Stop the RET and the windmills stop. Please.

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  • #
    el gordo

    Automation is a big part of the problem, the Klimatariat can easily tweak the raw data once the humans have been removed.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-02/bom-last-country-queensland-weather-station-destaffed/8580278

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    Keith L

    OK, I am no expert but would we expect minima to be normally distributed or Chi-squared? It probably makes no difference but I just want it to be correct.

    31

    • #
      Robert Swan

      You and I seem to be in the minority.

      I wouldn’t expect Goulburn’s min. temps to be normally distributed or any other standard distribution. Besides topography that I mentioned earlier, you’d expect hours of daylight to affect the temperature. Day lengths cluster around the solstices so you typically get a bimodal distribution

      We really should leave misapplication of statistical methods to the alarmists.

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  • #
    pat

    5 Jul: The Conversation: How a lack of access to reliable weather data is hurting African farmers
    by Stephen Yeboah, PhD student, Swiss Graduate School of Public Administration (IDHEAP), University of Lausanne
    (Disclosure statement: Stephen Yeboah is affiliated with Center for Social Impact Studies, a non-governmental organisation based in Ghana that advocates for sustainable mining and oil and gas extraction in Africa)

    Farmers can’t access reliable and usable weather data. Information is often unavailable and even if it does exist, the quality is poor or it’s inaccessible to those who need it most. Farmers don’t get efficient information on drought forecasts, rainfall distribution and pest outbreaks.
    This is because African governments and development agencies don’t understand and prioritise the value of climate and weather data…

    There are funds that African governments can tap into. One example is the Green Climate Fund adopted in 2011 as the funding arm of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change…

    In Africa, about 80% of the data from the meteorological service is unable to provide proper climate information and early warnings. This is as a result of decades of neglect by governments…

    ***But the World Metrological Organization estimates that an additional 4000 to 5000 basic meteorological observations are needed across the continent. The World Bank estimates that about USD$1 billion is needed to modernise Africa’s meteorological services. It also estimates that a minimum of USD$400 million to USD$500 million per year will be needed to support modernised systems, including staff costs and operating and maintenance costs…
    http://theconversation.com/how-a-lack-of-access-to-reliable-weather-data-is-hurting-african-farmers-80011

    ***why bother with the expense when the CAGW mob have got along just fine without any accurate African data so far?

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    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      Whenever we discovered a new mine that was looking prospective and profitable we would install a weather station. Some, like Jabiru NT, became part of the national system. We gave the gear and data to the government.
      What the heck is wrong with these people who complain that the government is failing to give them something?
      For gawd’s sake, find your boot straps and pull yourself up out of intellectual poverty.
      Geoff

      30

    • #
      Raven

      In Africa, about 80% of the data from the meteorological service is unable to provide proper climate information and early warnings. This is as a result of decades of neglect by governments…

      That didn’t trouble NOAA when they declared the record heat in central Africa; a location with zero data.

      They just made it up

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  • #
    thingadonta

    One wonders then how we can keep getting ‘more extreme weather’ when such weather data extremes keep getting deleted?

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    pat

    5 Jul: RealClimateScience: Latest From The Greenland Meltdown
    Greenland just set the record for coldest July temperature ever reported in the Northern Hemisphere at -33C…

    Climate experts immediately responded to the record cold by saying Greenland is melting faster than expected at -33C…
    EXAMPLES

    Climate science is not a science. It is a criminal venture intended to extort money from the public. Whatever they are doing, has nothing to do with science.
    https://realclimatescience.com/2017/07/latest-from-the-greenland-meltdown/

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    pat

    5 Jul: NYT: Lisa Friedman: Trump May Find Some Allies on Climate Change at G-20 Meeting
    Western European efforts to isolate President Trump for rejecting the Paris climate change agreement appear to be faltering as leaders gather for a summit meeting in Hamburg, Germany, at the end of the week…

    Saudi Arabia has indicated it is unlikely to climb on board and Russia, Turkey and Indonesia are sending mixed signals about how forcefully they will declare their support for the Paris deal…

    “Huge efforts are underway now to make sure as many countries as possible hold the line and compensate for America’s withdrawal by redoubling their efforts. How far this goes, I have my doubts,” said Dennis Snower, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a leading German think tank advising the European Commission ahead of the summit meeting.
    “It doesn’t look good,” Mr. Snower said. “It does not look like we are going to have 19 countries and the United States against.”…

    Some fear the future of the Paris agreement itself could be at stake. At a minimum, a weak statement or one that fails to clearly cast the United States as a renegade on climate change would signal that leaders are reluctant to jeopardize deals on trade or security by antagonizing the Trump administration over climate issues.
    “This is a ***litmus test. How does the world behave?” said Jonathan Pershing, former special envoy for climate change under President Barack Obama and now director of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation’s environment program…

    Conservatives in the United States say Europeans should know by now that goading Mr. Trump is likely to fail.
    “It’s like trying to poke a bear,” said Nicolas Loris, a research fellow in energy and environmental policy at the Heritage Foundation. “President Trump will stick to his convictions. I don’t think any type of pressure from Merkel or any of the other 19 countries is going to change that.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/climate/g20-climate-change-paris-accord-trump-merkel-germany.html

    28 Jun: Kiel Institute for the World Economy: Snower: G20 should make a commitment to climate protection
    The Hamburg G20 summit should send a clear signal in support of climate protection, says Dennis Snower, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and advisor to the G20. He believes it may still be possible to persuade the Trump administration to act on climate protection. But even without global cooperation, progress can be made on combating climate change…
    “The situation is difficult following the withdrawal of the US from the Paris climate accord, but I feel it’s important to have a significant majority expressing their commitment to the treaty,” said Snower. “A key measure of the success of this summit will be how strongly committed the largest industrialized and emerging countries are to climate protection. Support for the Paris agreement will also serve as a ***litmus test for the wider willingness to adhere to international agreements.”…

    About the T20:The Think 20 (T20) is mandated by the G20 presidency and brings together research institutes and think tanks from the G20 countries…During Germany’s presidency of the G20 in 2016/17, the T20 group is being coordinated by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the German Development Institute (DIE).
    https://www.ifw-kiel.de/media/press-releases/2017/snower-g20-should-make-a-commitment-to-climate-protection

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    pat

    6 Jul: LowyInstitute/The Interpreter: Australia Climate change: Three focus points for Turnbull at G20 summit
    by Greg Colton
    (from bio: Lieutenant Colonel Greg Colton DSM is a regular army officer currently taking twelve months leave to work at the Lowy Institute as a Research Fellow heading up the South Pacific Fragile States Project)
    You have to hand it to Kim Jung Un. In politics, as in comedy, timing is everything. The launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile two days before the G20 summit ensures that North Korea jumps to the top of the Summit’s agenda. With one push of the button – probably practically as well as metaphorically – Kim Jung Un derailed German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plans to focus the summit on climate change…

    So instead of spending two days consumed with the intractable problem of North Korea, the G20 should focus on the other great existential threat of our time: climate change…

    Australia has a key role to play in ensuring this happens. As the only country in the Pacific region with a seat at the G20, Australia has a moral obligation to act as a spokesperson for the region. It is, perhaps to the chagrin of some, the most influential country in the South Pacific and therefore has an important role to play as a regional leader. Yet if Australia is to truly be a leader then it also needs to display loyalty to a region that it has deemed critically important to its own national security…

    With this in mind, there are three important points that Malcolm Turnbull should push hard at this summit.
    The first is for a commitment from all nations to seek to keep global temperature increases under a 1.5-degree Celsius rise from pre-industrial levels…

    The second point involves solving an awkward dilemma: it is hard to be a climate change champion when you are the world’s largest coal exporter…
    No-one expects Australia to cease coal production overnight. However, a moratorium on new coal mines would demonstrate a commitment to a reduced-carbon future. It would be seen as a selfless act and would restore some legitimacy for Australia in the eyes of its Pacific Island neighbours…

    Thirdly, Australia can announce an increase in contributions to the Green Climate Fund, and challenge the other nations to match it, until they have covered the $2 billion shortfall caused by President Trump’s withdrawal from the fund…
    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/three-vital-points-turnbull-g20

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    • #
      Mary E

      So instead of spending two days consumed with the intractable problem of North Korea, the G20 should focus on the other great existential threat of our time: climate change…

      Haha, funny, that. If N Korea sparks off a war – nuclear or not, but given the number of nukes out there, probably, eventually, nuclear – CAGW will be the -least- of our worries.

      01

  • #
    pat

    5 Jul: MorningConsult: Climate Activists Fear Group of 20 May Waver in Support for Paris Climate Deal
    by Iulia Gheorghiu
    “I am not 100 percent confident that it is going to be a strong 19-party [pro-Paris agreement] signal,” Lutz Weischer, international climate policy leader at Germanwatch, an advocacy group, said on a Wednesday press call.
    Countries such as Saudi Arabia may no longer forcefully support the plan, Weischer said…

    Certain aspects have always been problematic for major energy producers, but Saudi Arabia is rumored to be trying to backtrack on certain points behind closed doors, such as climate-related disclosure — not to ditch the Paris agreement entirely,(Union of Concerned Scientists Alden) Meyer said.
    Turkey had suspended the ratification process for the agreement after Trump’s decision last month…

    “The reality is I think in some senses that the Paris accord kind of ignores the energy realities of today and tomorrow,” said Nick Loris, an economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, which has been vocal in opposing the Paris agreement.
    Urgewald, a German environmental advocacy group, found 120 companies in 62 countries are seeking to expand the world’s coal-fired capacity by 42.8 percent, according to the group’s database on global coal projects…
    “I do think that coal is going to be a dependable power source in both the near and intermediate future,” Loris said in an interview on Wednesday, pointing to the new coal projects planned around the world…

    “In other countries, [the Paris agreement], it’s an aspiration when you make one of these commitments. In this country it becomes very quickly a legal obligation,” Myron Ebell, who led the Environmental Protection Agency’s transition team, said in an interview Wednesday…
    https://morningconsult.com/2017/07/05/climate-activists-fear-group-20-may-waver-support-paris-climate-deal/

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    pat

    3 Jul: CountryNews: Several record low July temperatures recorded
    By Peter Nelson
    Last weekend was noteworthy for record low July temperatures in Victoria and southern section of NSW.
    Deniliquin recorded minus 5.6 on the Saturday and this was the lowest July temperature since minus 6.1 on 2nd July 1886. Hay recorded an all time record low for July of minus 6.1 on the Saturday 1st July ; then on the Sunday recorded a new record low for July of minus 6.3. Many places in NE Victoria recorded their lowest ever July temperatures including Rutherglen , Benalla and Wangaratta.

    In southern Victoria, Bairnsdale recorded minus 5.4 easily an all time record low for any month in 75 years of records. The previous lowest overall being minus 4.5 in early August 1997. Canberra recorded it’s coldest pair of July mornings since 1971…

    ***I do wonder about the accuracy of AWS stations. Last Saturday whilst in Cobar the AWS station recorded minus 0.6. The MO station run manually recorded minus 5.5.
    When I came outside in the early morning my car was coated with thick ice and my push bike parked nearby had a coating of ice on the frame. The MO reading is obviously more correct.
    Some AWS stations have lost some recordings due to technical failures and there has been no backup to recover lost readings.
    http://www.countrynews.com.au/2017/07/03/5681/several-record-low-july-temperatures-recorded

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    • #

      Wow. Thankyou
      Lance Pidgeon

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    • #

      “Last Saturday whilst in Cobar the AWS station recorded minus 0.6. The MO station run manually recorded minus 5.5.” There seems to be a few problems with this.
      First up. Both sites seem to be automated.
      http://cobarweekly.com.au/?p=2707
      Then the temperatures seem to have been recorded the other way around to what was stated.
      compare here to here
      Most interesting is that BOTH have very similar temperatures when it gets warmer at 8.5/8.6 on the third. Homogenise that!

      01

      • #

        The AWS site was 8.7 degrees below the long term Mean of 3.2 at that site.
        This map should show the second shade of blue not the first. Here

        The MO site was 5.7 degrees below the long term Mean of 3.2 at that site. So it SHOULD be the first shade of blue. The line of shade change should pass between them.

        My big question is. Are the national averages calculated from the same database that produces these maps? If so the minimum trend will be calculated to show erroneously higher than it should. This is important because for the greenhouse gas theories to be correct minimums need to be seen to warm FASTER than maximums.

        01

  • #
    pat

    further info re comment #43 – 3 Jul: CountryNews: Several record low July temperatures recorded By Peter Nelson, given his AWS station observations:

    Peter Nelson, Weather Wize, Country News
    I worked at CSIRO Aspendale from 1959 to 1993 and took part in many field expeditions to study the physics of the weather. These expeditions were held at Woomera, Lameroo, Hay, Daly Waters, Brisbane, Moree and at places in country Victoria. For many years I operated the weather radar at Aspendale studying the behaviour of cold fronts, showers and thunderstorms. Long range weather forecasting was a private hobby of mine since 1964 and I have been told by many farmers in NSW and Victoria that I have been helpful since 1970 especially around Coonabarabran, Moree, Dubbo and Bega…
    http://www.countrynews.com.au/profile/pnelson

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  • #
    pat

    followup on Peter Nelson (ex-CSIRO) who made the AWS stations’ observations in comment #43 has gone into moderation.

    31

  • #
    David Maddison

    Is the skewness of the histogram above evidence of more general tampering of the data? Is someone here able to run statistical tests of randomness? It’s a long time since I’ve done it…

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  • #
    Dennis

    It is a very demoralising situation when voters can no longer trust the government or the public servants working in government departments and organisations funded by taxpayer voters.

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    pat

    5 Jul: Reuters: Groups see climate science review as chance to undercut regulation
    By Valerie Volcovici
    The Trump administration will soon begin a review that will question the veracity of the climate change science used by President Barack Obama’s administration as the basis for environmental regulations.
    The move by the Environmental Protection Agency to launch public debates between scientists on climate research, known as red-team, blue-team exercises, would be the first major effort by the Republican administration to challenge the long-standing scientific consensus on human-caused climate change.
    Advocates who have petitioned the EPA to reverse the scientific finding underlying U.S. regulations governing greenhouse gas emissions see the proposal to scrutinize mainstream climate science as a first step in that direction.

    “It’s a way to survey the landscape before reopening the endangerment finding,” said Myron Ebell, head of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, one of the groups that filed a petition with the agency to undo the 2009 scientific determination that formed the basis for the Democratic Obama administration’s regulation of greenhouse gases…

    EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt has spoken several times about the merits of opening the climate change debate up to the public. The website Climatewire on Friday cited a senior administration official, who said Pruitt plans to launch the back-and-forth scientific critiques formally…

    Francis Menton, a lawyer who filed an endangerment finding petition in January on behalf of the Concerned Household Electricity Consumers Council, said Pruitt told an event at the Manhattan Institute think tank in New York on Friday that he would launch the debates in the next few months.

    Menton said he asked Pruitt whether he had made a decision on reopening the endangerment finding. Pruitt said the agency is weighing its options.
    The review “can create a body of scientific work that can be trustworthy and dependable to make regulatory choices and decisions,” said Rob Henneke, of the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a third group that filed an endangerment finding petition.
    Unlike the other two, it has challenged the legality of the endangerment finding, not the science.

    Environmental groups are confident that Pruitt will not be successful if he tries to undo the endangerment finding because they expect the courts will side with the scientific consensus that human beings cause climate change.
    Pruitt and the EPA would need to build up a new case that shows carbon dioxide is innocuous and counter the volumes of scientific research that support the finding.

    “If he has any grasp of scientific and legal reality, he would realize that it’s a fool’s errand to reverse the endangerment determination,” said David Doniger, climate director for the Natural Resources Defense Counsel.
    “This could be a way for him to keep the right-wing fringe groups occupied and also accomplish the goal of further confusing the public debate,” he said.

    Ebell, who was also the transition leader of the Trump EPA, had previously been critical of Pruitt’s hesitation to take on the endangerment finding because of the time and staffing it would require.
    The Trump administration has not yet appointed second-tier assistant administrators to run different policy divisions of the agency.
    “I think (the red-team, blue-team process) is a logical first step, but I don’t think it commits the administrator to anything yet,” Ebell said.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-epa-climatechange-science-idUSKBN19Q1OP

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    pat

    7 Jul: Courier Mail: Great Barrier Reef not endangered: UNESCO
    Sarah Vogler and Shae McDonald, AAP
    PREMIER Annastacia Palaszczuk has renewed her call for the Federal Government to scrap its plans for a new coal-fired power station in North Queensland, arguing it will hurt the Great Barrier Reef.
    Ms Palaszczuk welcomed UNESCO’s decision today not to list the reef as in danger but said a coal-fired power station “on the doorstep” of the reef could put it in jeopardy.
    “What the Federal Government should be doing, as well as the State LNP is ruling out a brand new coal-fired power station on the doorstep of the Great Barrier Reef,” she said.
    She dismissed suggestions the State should also ditch plans for the Adani mine to ensure the reef is protected…

    Earlier, The Great Barrier Reef has been left off UNESCO’s “in danger” list following a meeting of its World Heritage Committee.
    It voted to endorse the Federal Government’s Reef 2050 Plan, which lists a series of measures designed to protect and manage the ecosystem. Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg said the decision was a “big win for Australia”…

    Mr Frydenberg said land management practices for farmers could be improved, but he continued his support for the controversial Adani coal mine because of the jobs it would bring to regional Queensland towns…
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/great-barrier-reef-not-endangered-unesco/news-story/3a34e9895a1509840191b2e49bc181ae

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  • #
    pat

    tried opening this:

    Record setting start to July – KWCH
    Record setting start to July. Posted: Sat 9:18 AM, Jul 01, 2017. What a treat for July 1st, a record low temperature tied this morning in Wichita. The record is 58,

    but the article has been pulled, it seems.

    from cached version:

    1 Jul: KWCH TV: Record setting start to July
    What a treat for July 1st, a record low temperature tied this morning in Wichita. The record is ***58F, originally set in 1995. Temperatures this morning feel more like May than July…
    http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Record-setting-start-to-July-431970903.html

    can’t think of any reason why the TV station would lie about the record low, however:

    ***58F = 14.44C – yet the map for Wichita morning low July 1st at the following shows 16C low.
    https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/wichita/historic

    the ***15.55C in the following would round up to 16F I guess:

    Accuweather shows Wichita July 1st Actual Temp 87° /60° (***15.55C); Hist. Avg. 91°/67°
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/wichita-ks/67202/july-weather/348426

    perhaps there’s nothing to this, but it made me think meteorologists might be nervous about announcing “record low” temps, if low figures get adjusted.

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    • #

      Keep looking at those maps Pat. Warwick Hughes and I have an interest in those too. They could be the clue to how monthly national (area) averages are calculated. The resulting trends are used as evidence of warming. The greenhouse theory needs minimums to warm faster than maximums but those minimums seem to have a problem here. http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=5206

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      • #
        pat

        Siliggy -

        I don’t even have a clue if the Wichita low is in any way worth noting, but it just seemed to fit with jo’s thread.
        will check it out some more tomorrow.

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  • #
    KinkyKeith

    I keep saying that these things they call “models” are NOT engineering models.

    They fail in the physics.

    They fail in the mathematics.

    They fail in the Chemistry.

    And

    They fail the basic test of any model ie. that it can faithfully reproduce portions of the time frame.

    The fact that they cannot reproduce portions of the time frame when ALL data is known makes it a joke to extend them into the future.

    But “Belief” conquers all in our new religion.

    KK

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    Geoff Sherrington

    Somewhere in my files I have a verbatim BOM email describing the purity of the CDO data set, as opposed to the adjusted ACORN-SAT.
    I can dig it out if needed, but I am quite sure that it does not cover the adjustment at Goulburn. So, there is one exception about purity that makes you ask how many more there might be.
    Over the years, I have come to appreciate some BOM work, but in the last 5 years the excuses for mistakes have become more frequent and more implausible.
    Not good enough for government work.
    Geoff

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  • #
    David Maddison

    O/T

    Malcolm Roberts
    PRESS RELEASE – 5 July 2017

    AUDIT OF ‘FINKEL REVIEW’ REVEALS DEVASTATING HITS TO ECONOMY

    Dr Alan Moran, a world expert on electricity market regulations has conducted an independent analysis and report on the Finkel Review.

    Released today, Dr Moran’s report reveals that the Finkel panel’s recommendations are based on unreliable and unrealistic assumptions and forecasts.
    https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B7nnhWI914TCYjRxUzY5Zjl0UlE
    https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B7nnhWI914TCZC1fVlNoTDU3dUU

    Senator Malcolm Roberts commissioned the independent report by Dr Moran on behalf of Queenslanders and Australians. Dr Moran’s report, “Impacts on the Australian Economy and Australian Consumers” was released in Melbourne.

    Dr. Moran’s audit shows that the Finkel Review’s implications will devastate the economy and would slug average households up to an astonishing $768 more a year in electricity costs.

    “The Moran Review of Dr Finkel’s work is an in-depth and comprehensive road map to cheaper electricity. It demonstrates how Australia can return to low-cost reliable energy and a productive economy that it had before renewable energy policies started to bite,” Senator Roberts said.

    Dr Moran’s own policy recommendations entail a dismantling of the energy market regulations that are forcing low cost reliable coal based electricity to be substituted for high cost unreliable wind and solar.

    “The alternative to Dr Moran’s recommendations is expensive, intermittent, economy-destroying electricity,”

    “The impacts of Dr Moran’s review will be felt far and wide as Australians, for the first time, are able to assess the real impacts of Dr Finkel’s devastating blue-print that will wreck the Australian economy,”

    “It was important we commissioned this independent review so as to provide robust and sound economic data for parliamentarians and policy makers as they consider the Finkel recommendations,” Senator Roberts said.

    “Over regulation and implementation of the now discredited climate change policies such as the RET, is the reason Australia’s electricity has become so costly over the past few years,” Dr Moran said.

    He added, “We can expect it to become even more costly under present policies, and prohibitively so, should the Finkel recommendations of increasingly greater subsidies on unreliable electricity sources be adopted.”

    Dr Moran’s key recommendations include:
    1. Rejecting the Finkel’s recommendations
    2. Abolishing the RET
    3. Ceasing all government subsidies to bodies such as the Clean Energy Regulator and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

    Senator Roberts has recently declared victory in smashing open the climate change racket, as more and more lies are exposed each day about these devastating policies.

    “Even if the climate change alarmists were telling the truth (which they are not), Dr Finkel has admitted under oath to parliament that Australia reducing its emissions will contribute ‘virtually nothing’ to a reduction in global temperatures.

    By Dr Finkel’s own admission, his report is based on an assumption that if Australia should address the fabricated lies of anthropogenic climate change through hikes in electricity prices and job losses, we would still not have any real effect on global temperatures.

    Senator Roberts has said he will ask to meet with the Prime Minister as a matter of urgency to present Dr Moran’s road map to low-cost electricity for all Australians.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwQ6BiqeBcg
    FULL REPORT – http://ow.ly/3T5230dkTm5

    https://www.facebook.com/malcolmrobertsonenation/

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    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      Thanks David
      Have downloaded both papers, but am yet to read them.
      Cheers,
      Dave B

      10

  • #
    Ted O'Brien.

    I well remember July 1970, when in severe drought we saw temps as low as -10 in the morning, rising to nearly 20 through the day. This was repeated almost in 1971. I don’t recall anything lower than -5 prior to that time, and may have seen a -7 since. The official -5s we are seeing now are a bit lower than usual for here.

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  • #
  • #

    [...] is brand new to many of us who monitor BoM data – but OK thats what the BoM says happened. Jo Nova is also onto the issue. Lance and I checked BoM AWAP maps for NSW daily minimum temperature and [...]

    11

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Around this area

    “Bombshell study: Temperature Adjustments Account For ‘Nearly All Of The Warming’ In Government Climate Data”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/06/bombshell-study-temperature-adjustments-account-for-nearly-all-of-the-warming-in-government-climate-data/

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Another Ian:

      And it was peer reviewed.

      Also on Notalotofpeopleknowthat:
      An intriguing comment ( NOTE last line )
      Dave Vought PERMALINK
      July 6, 2017 9:06 pm
      On doing my own research on Australian disasters in ( list of disasters in Australia by death toll ), I found that a Goverment department, EMA.GOV.AU ( can’t get access to it.?), has retrieved information to Heatwaves, floods and cyclones. ( click on the little ref number ). The 1909-10, 1913-14, 1939-40 & 1972-73 heatwaves got retrieved on 25/07/2003. 1911-12, 20-21 & 26-27 on 05/10/10. As all other disaster information is still there, why would a gov department that no longer exists have retrieved them?.

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    Another Ian

    Jo FYI

    ” Myron Mesecke
    July 6, 2017 at 9:14 am

    Has anyone seen this yet?
    Found it on GreenieWatch.
    Their model is able to explain the temperature of rocky celestial bodies and show that atmospheric composition isn’t much of a factor.

    A key entailment from the model is that the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ currently viewed
    as a radiative phenomenon is in fact an adiabatic (pressure-induced) thermal enhancement analogous to compression heating and independent of atmospheric composition.

    https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/New-Insights-on-the-Physical-Nature-of-the-Atmospheric-Greenhouse-Effect-Deduced-from-an-Empirical-Planetary-Temperature-Model.pdf

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/06/why-climate-models-run-hot/#comment-2543856

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    David Maddison

    As the world starts to cool, as it always does after twin periods of warming (30′s-40′s, 80′s-90′s) followed by a pause (ref. David Dilley), how desperate and how extreme do you think Australia’s BoM and other clmate/weather agencies will get in making their adjustments in order to “prove” ongoing warming?

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      crakar24

      They will put heaters in the screens to keep the equipment warm as temps drop, this additional warmth will form part of their “adjustments” and have zero effect on the trend

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    David Maddison

    Oh, the insanity of it all. VIC Government policy and “renewables” policy caused the Hazelwood power station to shut down now they are building a “power station” that burns garbage which will have a minuscule output compared compared to Hazelwood.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/australian-paper-plan-to-turn-waste-into-power/news-story/f4c40b6f69e6ca185aa7cfc8cddd9b25

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    pat

    Another Ian has posted the WUWT link of the following, which is ClimateDepot’s top headline and featured on DrudgeReport, guaranteeing it many millions of views:

    5 Jul: Daily Caller: Michael Bastasch: EXCLUSIVE: Study Finds Temperature Adjustments Account For ‘Nearly All Of The Warming’ In Climate Data
    A new study found adjustments made to global surface temperature readings by scientists in recent years “are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data.”
    “Nearly all of the warming they are now showing are in the adjustments,” Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo, a study co-author, told The Daily Caller News Foundation in an interview. “Each dataset pushed down the 1940s warming and pushed up the current warming.”
    “You would think that when you make adjustments you’d sometimes get warming and sometimes get cooling. That’s almost never happened,” said D’Aleo, who co-authored the study with statistician James Wallace and Cato Institute climate scientist Craig Idso…

    “The conclusive findings of this research are that the three [global average surface temperature] data sets are not a valid representation of reality,” the study found…READ ALL
    http://dailycaller.com/2017/07/05/exclusive-study-finds-temperature-adjustments-account-for-nearly-all-of-the-warming-in-climate-data/

    another must-read today:

    6 Jul: The Federalist: Julie Kelly: Leading Climate Scientist Says Debating Scientific Theories Would Be ‘Un-American’
    You’d think the 97 percent of scientists who supposedly all agree about climate change would eagerly line up to vanquish climate deniers—but apparently not.
    In a June 21 Washington Post op-ed, three top climate scientists repudiated the red-team concept, offended by the slightest suggestion that climate science needs fixing. Naomi Oreskes, Benjamin Salter, and Kerry Emanuel wrote that “calls for special teams of investigators are not about honest scientific debate. They are dangerous attempts to elevate the status of minority opinions, and to undercut the legitimacy, objectivity and transparency of existing climate science.”…

    Then there is the interminably-petulant and prosaic Michael Mann, who routinely dishes out the “denier” name to anyone who crosses him, and recently compared himself to a Holocaust survivor. Mann told ThinkProgress that the red-team concept is “un-American” and a ruse to “run a pro-fossil fuel industry disinformation campaign aimed at confusing the public and policymakers over what is potentially the greatest threat we face as a civilization.”

    Aha! Right there is the key objection to the entire exercise: the risk to their political power. These activists know that climate change long ago stopped being about science. It is a liberal, big-government agenda wrapped up in a green cloak of superiority and virtue…
    https://thefederalist.com/2017/07/06/leading-climate-scientist-science-debate-un-american/

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      Mary E

      Post op-ed, three top climate scientists repudiated the red-team concept, offended by the slightest suggestion that climate science needs fixing. Naomi Oreskes, Benjamin Salter, and Kerry Emanuel wrote that “calls for special teams of investigators are not about honest scientific debate. They are dangerous attempts to elevate the status of minority opinions, and to undercut the legitimacy, objectivity and transparency of existing climate science.”…

      Benjamin Salter is a musician – they mean Santer?

      It is not “un-American” to debate, argue and dissent – it is part of the very foundation of the USofA to be contentious and argumentative. We began as a collection of malcontents, after all. A debate between scientists would be most welcome, but ignored after 5 minutes by the general public, which has been trained to dart from crises to crises, new shiny thing to new shiny thing. We’ll wait for the New and Improved! consensus, which we will ignore after a few minutes, same as the last consensus. And, to make attention spans even less likely to focus on what’s happening with CAGW, Trump will say or do something and the press will drop CAGW coverage to spend time on how awful a POTUS he really is.

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    pat

    a comment has gone into moderation.

    6 Jul: WUWT: Why are Search Engines so Hostile to Climate Realism?
    by Leo Goldstein
    A large cluster of interlinked climate alarmist web sites clutters the web. It heavily overlaps the cluster of the leftist, international, government, and academic sites. A content-neutral ranking algorithm would identify this cluster and some sub-clusters (such as personal attack websites), and would at least diversify results for climate debate related queries with pages outside of this cluster – conservative media, WUWT(1), and the climate realism blogosphere. Instead, Google and Bing/Yahoo operate as amplifiers of climate alarmism. At closer look, the search engines are not content-neutral. Let us investigate their biases closer…READ ON
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/06/why-are-search-engines-so-hostile-to-climate-realism/

    google’s AlGoreIthms have been a problem for a very long time.

    p.s. Google got considerably worse in recent weeks, when they completely changed their “news” page format, making it even more anti-Trump than it already was, if that is even possible. (don’t underestimate the MSM’s correlation of being anti-Trump being pro-CAGW)

    the format is hopeless and makes visiting their “news” page a waste of time.

    coincidentally, up until yesterday, clicking on “view all” for top groupings on any topic, stopped going to the larger listing of articles on the subject & instead, took you to the above, useless “news” page!

    that has now been fixed, kind of.
    look at what you get for the “view all” on the top climate change grouping today (not the Daily Caller/Bastasch article, that is for sure.
    almost 150 (ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY) articles, obsessively anti-Trump, pro-CAGW, & biased to the “left”):

    Challenging Trump, Gov. Brown calls for global climate summit in California
    In Depth· Los Angeles Times· 1h ago

    US, other G-20 nations near compromise on climate
    Politico· 1h ago

    Gov. Jerry Brown to Hamburg Global Citizen Festival: ‘It’s time to join together’
    Los Angeles Times· 3h ago

    Jerry Brown Announces a Climate Summit Meeting in California
    New York Times· 1h ago

    Mayors promise to act on climate. How much can they do?
    E&E News· 9h ago

    Europe’s leaders stepping into bigger role on global trade and climate change
    Los Angeles Times· 7h ago

    California’s governor is ramping up his battle with Trump by inviting ‘the whole world’ to a climate summit
    Business Insider· 9h ago

    G20 Governments Continue Spending Billions In Public Fossil Fuel Financing
    CleanTechnica· 9h ago

    Theresa May to tell Donald Trump there is no chance of renegotiating the Paris Climate Change Agreement
    The Sun· Jul 6, 2017

    US isolated over climate: G20 host Merkel
    Yahoo Singapore News· 6h ago

    plenty of minor “progressive” left/CAGW websites listed:

    ‘No Trump, Yes Paris’: Greenpeace Gives US President Cold Welcome in Poland
    Common Dreams· 9h ago

    ‘Talk Is Cheap’: G20 Told to End Public Subsidy of All Dirty Fuels by 2020
    Common Dreams· Jul 6, 2017

    As Trump exits Paris, America’s urban neighborhoods pay the price
    ThinkProgress· 7h ago

    Stephen Hawking issues dire warning about the threat Trump poses to a livable climate
    ThinkProgress· Jul 6, 2017

    If US states are really ‘still in’ Paris, here’s what they need to do
    Climate Home· 7h ago

    bottom of page:
    The selection and placement of stories on this page were determined automatically by a computer program.

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    pat

    have seen this updated 7 mins ago, 4 mins ago, now 3 mins ago. ABC is beside itself with excitement:

    7 Jul updated 3 mins ago: ABC: South Australia teams with Tesla, Neoen to build world’s biggest lithium ion battery in bid to secure power
    The world’s largest lithium ion battery will be installed in South Australia under an agreement between Tesla, Neoen and the State Government, Premier Jay Weatherill has announced.

    The energy storage systems from Tesla will be paired with French renewable company Neoen’s Hornsdale Wind Farm and installed before summer.

    According to the Government, Tesla boss Elon Musk has confirmed his commitment to deliver the battery within 100 days or it is free.

    The 100 days starts once the grid interconnection agreement has been signed.

    The Government has said the 100-megawatt (129 megawatt hour) battery places SA at the forefront of global energy storage technology.

    The battery will operate at all times providing stability services for renewable energy and will be available to provide emergency back-up power if a shortfall in energy is predicted…

    More to come.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-07/south-australia-to-get-worlds-biggest-battery/8687268

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      Bulldust

      Must have been that noise I heard … the collective Greengasm.

      What’s the chances this thing catches fire one hot summer’s day?

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      Oh Tony, please stop laughing.

      This battery will be hooked up with Hornsdale Stage Three, which is a 109MW wind plant.

      If (bl00dy bid if) this wind plant was operating at 100% CF, then it will take only an hour twenty minutes to charge, but at the average CF of 30% that’ll be three hours twenty, and days with little wind, considerably longer.

      That’s with 100% efficiency going in and 100% efficiency going out and there is always losses with any batteries, so what I quote here is PERFECTION. (again Tony, stop laughing)

      The battery will then theoretically deliver its power during the Peak power period, when they can sell that power for the biggest price they can squeeze out, logical really, make as much as you can from the ign0rant consumers, eh!.

      Hmm, let’s see now, South Australia consumes 1480MWH of power every hour, sometimes less, but at peak power times (when they hope to deliver that power) a lot more than that, sometimes up around 2200MWH per hour, and more.

      Even at that average of 1480MWH, this battery is only 8.7% of the State’s requirement, and using it at that delivery rate that 8.7% is expired in one hour, and at peak periods up beyond 2000MWH+, that’s only around 6.5% of the State’s consumption, and even then that will be for just one hour mind you. Deliver at a lesser rate and it’s a lesser percentage and will luckily be expired in maybe two hours, but at such a tiny percentage.

      Either way, they are using the supply from the wind plant to charge the battery in the first place.

      This is comedy of the first order.

      This is not NEW power.

      You either deliver the power to the grid, or use it to charge the battery.

      Note that the owner of the wind plant is a French Company, so, hmm, I wonder where those profits will be going. I’ll bet that the Premier is hoping it can’t be delivered in 100 days so he can save some money.

      This news is so exciting, but for all the wrong people.

      Tony.

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        Dennis

        There is no doubt whatsoever that the so called renewable energy segment of the electricity supply industry is a minor segment, all about politics and foreign interference in cooperation with Australian governments (and oppositions in many instances such as federal Labor Green), and of course their capitalist cronies who hang around to make profits from subsidies from taxpayers.

        A minor segment of the industry but enough to seriously damage the economy, not only subsidies but also penalising the power stations and artificially setting the price of electricity high.

        On the news last night yet another advertisement presented as news, electricity providers who can “save” consumers money on their electricity bills. Another marketing exercise offering higher discounts for payment of bills on time. No business with acceptable operating profit margins and true competition could afford to offer settlement discounts of 12-22%, the normal for business settlement within 30-days is 2.5%

        The conspiracy is no theory, it is a deliberate and blatant undermining of the Australian economy with consumers of electricity the front line victims. Victims of elected representatives who are expected to look after the best interests of their constituents.

        I never anticipated that in Australia politicians would sink so low.

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        Still laughing here.

        Let’s pretend for the most fleeting of seconds that this battery will supply its full rated power from full charge to flat every single day, and keep in mind that’ll only be for perhaps an hour a day.

        Every day of the year.

        Full charge from the wind plant, and discharge into the South Australian grid at 100% efficiency. (cue Curly)

        Every day.

        Then, across the whole year, this battery will have supplied 0.36% of South Australia’s total power consumption.

        Around one third of one percent.

        And for how many hundreds of millions of dollars?

        This is now what passes for a game changer.

        WTF! (please excuse my poor French here)

        This is astonishing. (and not in a good way)

        Tony.

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          Bulldust

          If you want more laughs go look at the ecstatic commentary at the SMHuffpo where they have also gleefully spruiked this miracle from Saint Musk:

          http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/south-australia-to-announce-tesla-as-backer-of-worlds-largest-battery-20170707-gx6mhy.html

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          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          G’day Tony,
          And thanks for your posts, which are always helpful.
          I’ve just heard on the news that the batteries are to be installed near Jamestown. Doesn’t it get hot in SA, especially in summer? Maybe towards the 40′s? And don’t these batteries react badly to high temps, even as low as 35? Is it possible they might need all their power to aircondition them so that they… drive… the aircon… so they… can… store… some… more…
          power… to…

          Or do they just catch fire?
          Cheers,
          Dave B

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          Yeah,

          I had to go out not long after that earlier comment, but hey, watch here how, contrary to what you are being told, this battery actually INCREASES the price of electricity.

          The battery has to be charged first, and here, it is being charged by the output from this wind plant.

          So, however many hours it takes to charge, it all depends upon the capacity of the battery, and they quote that as 129MWH, so here we have an input of 129MWH total to fully charge the battery, and that’s if, if, if, it can be charged at 100% efficiency, (stop laughing Tony, how many time must you be told) then that’s 129MWH.

          So, when they sell that power back to the grid, they have to recover that original 129MWH of the cost of the wind power to charge it in the first place, and that wind power cost is already way higher than coal fired power cost, no matter what the talking heads tell you.

          Then, on top of that cost, they have to add on the cost of recovery for the original outlay for the battery, calculated at a cost per MWH.

          Then, on top of that, they have to recover the cost of maintenance and wages etc, also calculated at that cost per MWH rate.

          Then, on top of that, they have to recover the cost for the profit for the Company, also calculated at the cost per MWH.

          When it comes time to sell that power back to the grid, they will ask for the cost of all these factors included.

          Keep in mind, all they will get is one hour at the full discharge rate, 129MWH, or two hours at half the discharge rate, either way, all they will get is 129MWH at the highest cost they can get away with.

          It will spike the instantaneous cost of electricity, and then settle down immediately to the new higher cost for wholesale power.

          Whichever way they go, this has ….. INCREASED the cost of electricity, all passed down directly to all consumers.

          Even though it’s only for an hour or two, the electricity would have been cheaper if it had only been the output directly from the wind plant in the first place, or higher than the cost of any other form of power generation.

          And you wonder why I laugh.

          This is a c0n of the first order.

          What an absolute joke.

          This is not NEW power.

          It is second hand power recycled from a cheaper source, and that’s if it is 100% efficient, which it ‘aint.

          Tony.

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          Geoff

          The site where they want to locate can get quite hot in summer. What happens when Li Batteries get hot? How much power will be used cooling them?

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            Konrad

            They plan to use Tesla Powerpack 2 modules. These have a liquid heating and cooling system like Tesla cars. The heating / cooling system prolongs the life of the battery by controlling temperature during charge and discharge, but it uses energy. About 12% is lost during a charge / discharge cycle.

            Further, the Powerpack 2 is claimed to be good for 5000 cycles, but only if regularly charged and deep discharged. Connected to an intermittent and unpredictable subsidy farm, these units will be lucky to last a decade.

            Jay Weatherfail is blowing around $100 million on junk that can only make SA electricity more expensive.

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        OriginalSteve

        Tony, some figures please….

        How much with this lithium white elephant cost ( over 20 years ), vs a coal or gas plant?

        How long will the batteries last vs life of a normal plant?

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        Annie

        Tony, you set me off laughing too!

        However:

        I really am amazed that our politicians can’t/won’t see the truth. There seems to be a wilful disregard for the welfare of Australia and its long-suffering over-taxed citizens.

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      Another Ian

      Pat

      WRT Tesla they might want to be quick going on the links here

      http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/07/we-dont-need-no-632.html

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    pat

    NOTE IN HEADLINE: “AIMS”, “SALE”:

    6 Jul: Bloomberg: France Aims to End Sale of Fossil-Fuel-Powered Cars by 2040
    By Helene Fouquet, Mark Deen, and Ania Nussbaum
    Energy Minister Hulot unveils details of climate plan in Paris
    ‘France wants to become the No. 1 green economy,’ Hulot says
    France plans to end the sale of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles by 2040 in a bid to become a carbon-neutral nation, Energy Minister Nicolas Hulot said, effectively promoting electric cars.
    Presenting the country’s “Climate Plan” in Paris on Thursday, Hulot said France will offer tax incentives to replace diesel autos that are more than 20 years old and gasoline vehicles made before 2001. The government will also end oil and gas exploration on French territory, eliminate coal-fired power plants by 2022 and encourage home owners to produce their own energy…

    “The target is a tough one,” Hulot, a former journalist and environmental activist, said. “But France wants to become the No. 1 green economy.”…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/france-aims-to-end-sale-of-fossil-fuel-powered-cars-by-2040

    theirABC chooses headline that omits “AIMS”, “SALE”:

    7 Jul: ABC: ABC/Reuters: France moves to ban petrol and diesel cars in a bid to meet Paris agreement targets

    ALL MSM OMITS THIS BIT FROM HULOT:

    ***AustralianDollar $150/tonne

    7 Jul: CarbonPulse: Under new climate plan, France to raise domestic CO2 tax above ***€100/t by 2030
    France will raise its domestic carbon tax to levels “higher or significantly higher” than €100/tonne by 2030, environment minister Nicolas Hulot announced on Thursday as he unveiled his government’s new five-year plan to fight climate change…

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      Dennis

      I read recently that Volvo of Sweden, now owned by Chinese business investors, will only be offering hybrid vehicles with 4-cylinder engines to drive the generator in the near future.

      The article indicated that EU Standards for fuel consumption is behind the decision.

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    pat

    7 Jul: ABC: Victorian businesses struggling with power ‘train wreck’ as wholesale prices triple since 2015
    By James Hancock
    Analysis from energy consultancy company Global-Roam shows wholesale power prices soared 63 per cent in Victoria between the second quarter of last year and this year.
    When the second quarter of 2015 is compared with 2017, the wholesale price more than tripled — rising 238 per cent to $104 per megawatt hour.
    Victorian prices have never been so high in the 19-year history of the National Electricity Market, according to Global-Roam analyst Paul McArdle.

    He said the closure of the Latrobe Valley’s Hazelwood coal-fired power station was just one factor contributing to the “extreme” rise, with others including high gas prices, intermittency from renewables and regulatory uncertainty.
    “Those pre-disposed to draw overly simplistic ‘it was due to’ … conclusions are unlikely to be correct and could be dangerously misleading,” he wrote.

    The Wilson Transformer Company, which manufactures electricity distribution and power transformers for a range of businesses at Glen Waverly in Melbourne’s south-east, said its electricity costs rose by 83 per cent this month.
    The company’s executive chairman, Robert Wilson, said the increase would shave about $700,000 off the company’s bottom line each year…

    A survey earlier this year by Victoria’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry showed that 1 per cent of businesses were planning to shut down because of high energy costs.
    Industries such as manufacturing, tourism and construction, which use large amounts of electricity, have been the hardest hit.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-07/wholesale-power-price-hikes-victorian-businesses-struggle/8687322

    begins with faux concern, but moves on to the usual shilling for solar:

    7 Jul: CanberraTimes: Steven Trask: ACT power and gas price rises hitting Canberra business bottom lines
    Ivan Slavic(sic) is a director of Xtek and also the chief executive of energy consultancy Energy Action.
    He said businesses could keep costs down by shopping around for the best electricity deal and by implementing measures, such as SOLAR power, to become more energy efficient…
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/act-power-and-gas-price-rises-hitting-canberra-business-bottom-lines-20170706-gx5wng.html

    the same Mr. Slavich just months ago:

    24 Mar: CanberraTimes: Michael Gorey: Canberra executive Ivan Slavich appointed CEO of Energy Action
    Mr Slavich predicted greater demand for microgrids, where customers can connect or disconnect from the main network.
    “There’s going to be more and more embedded networks in the electricity distribution system,” he said.
    “We’re experts at managing those…

    “Electricity prices are going to skyrocket in South Australia and Victoria,” he said.
    “If the [federal] government is going to build a $2 billion Snowy Hydro facility and SA spends $550 million on building capacity in South Australia, electricity prices have got to go up.
    “Someone has got to pay for it.”
    Mr Slavich said ACT prices should continue to remain lower than the states because of its compact distribution network.

    “In New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia they’ve got to string electricity wires over vast distances and they’ve got to recover the cost of that from all consumers in those states,” he said.
    “In the case of the ACT, because of its compact nature, the distribution charges are more competitive.
    “Energy Action does pricing for the whole package. I strongly encourage customers in the ACT to give us a call…
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberra-executive-ivan-slavich-appointed-ceo-of-energy-action-20170324-gv5pdp.html

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      OriginalSteve

      IMHO, if dopey australians dont wake up after this, they deserve to be hung out to dry….

      I suspect once they sart losing jobs and cant pay power bills they might finally relaise they have be stabbed in the back

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    • #
      David Maddison

      When they say “100MW” do they mean MWh or MWs?

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        Robber

        The Minister for Energy, Environment and Climate Change, the Hon Lily D’Ambrosio, recently announced the Victorian Governments’ $25 million Storage Initiative. The Initiative is now open, with applications closing on 13 June 2017.

        The Andrews Labor Government is calling for detailed proposals for large-scale battery energy storage facilities in western Victoria. The call comes following an exceptionally strong market response to an expressions of interest process run in February and March this year.

        The Storage Initiative will support projects that deliver large-scale energy storage, to enhance the reliability of our grid and unlock economic growth in areas experiencing network constraints.

        Funding of up to $25 million is available in the initiative, which seeks to deploy up to two projects of 20 megawatts minimum capacity each of commercially ready battery storage, that combined, will provide at least a total of 100 MWh by January 2018.

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          Robber

          28 June 2017
          More than 1,300 new jobs are set to be created in Western Victoria with a massive expansion of Nectar Farms, powered by wind energy and backed by the Victorian Government.
          The co-located $350 million 196MW Bulgana 56 turbine generator will be backed up by a 20MW battery will make the expansion a reality by providing the secure and affordable energy that Nectar Farms needs for its hydroponic greenhouses.

          10

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        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        G’day David,
        This report gives two numbers, 100MW and 129MWH, the first time I’ve seen both units mentioned. Can’t comment on their reliability.

        http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-07/south-australia-to-get-worlds-biggest-battery/8687268

        Cheers,
        Dave B

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      Raven

      Stacey Lee – Sky News reporter, Adelaide said:

      He (Musk) has likened it to the batteries that are in space. They run on battery storage and solar and wind, so he said it is possible . . .

      The standard of reporting that thinks wind is a power source in space.
      And this is why we can’t have nice things.

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    pat

    7 Jul: SMH: John Hewson: Malcolm Turnbull must take on Tony Abbott over renewables
    (John Hewson is a professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, and a former Liberal opposition leader. He has business interests in the renewables sector.)
    In a world of short-term, opportunistic, populist politics, politicians easily ignore the so-called “vision thing”…
    Climate change is a glaring example of this; politicians have played short-term politics to the point at which they have made it politically very difficult to move substantially forward when, in terms of the science, the world may already be past a tipping point.

    What’s more, it is now personal, Abbott v Turnbull, and the stakes are very high; the next election outcome is at risk, as households and industries get eaten by rapidly rising power prices and face the mounting probability of blackouts…

    It is going to take years to roll out additional baseload capacity, irrespective of whether it is coal fired, hydro, or affordable, dispatchable or renewable.

    Ironically, populism would normally have driven a significant and sensible response as, importantly, this is one issue where the voters have been leading the politicians, as many polls, and the rush to household solar, have demonstrated. Even with all the uncertainty caused by sustained attacks on carbon pricing, on the renewables industry, and their poorly managed introduction, this is still the case…

    (Abbott) is prepared to trash our international standing a la Paris, and create and exploit disunity in the Liberal Party for his personal ends…ETC
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbull-must-take-on-abbott-over-renewables-20170706-gx6cna.html

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      Dennis

      I wonder if Hewson realises that the Gillard Labor supported with taxpayer’s monies Dalby Queensland solar farm has closed down?

      A commercial decision apparently, despite the taxpayer funded subsidies for profit the directors realised that the operation was still unviable.

      No doubt because Queensland has the most modern and youngest Coal fired power stations in Australia and the government is unwilling to penalise them for burning fossil fuel.

      Obviously, remove government provided taxpayer subsidies and government imposed penalties from the electricity industry and so called renewables would be finished.

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      Dennis

      So Hewson thinks “baseload” and not base load.

      And, I understand, as an investor has investments in renewables.

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    Geoffrey Williams

    The BOM changing temperature data to suit their version of climate change is disgraceful. It’s like taking the law into one’s own hands. It is not acceptable and guarantees should be given that it will not occur again.
    GeoffW

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    pat

    5 Jul: Breitbart: James Delingpole: Climate Mafia Caught Tampering With Evidence Again…
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/07/05/delingpole-climate-mafia-caught-tampering-with-the-evidence-again/

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    pat

    help is on the way…the facts about the CAGW scam will now surely be revealed! lol:

    5 Jul: Breitbart: Virginia Hale: Foreign Influence? Soros & Co. Drop $500k On UK ‘Fact Check’ Org
    UK fact-checking group Full Fact has been given a large cash injection by the Open Society Foundations, and Omidyar Network to produce two new tools to counter what it calls “misinformation”.
    Full Fact announced the $500,000 (£386,000) donation on Thursday, explaining that the money is to build and launch ‘Live’ and ‘Trends’, automated tools which the charity hopes will make their ‘fact-checking’ findings much more influential…

    Full Fact said that both tools will be available in newsrooms by the end of this year, and launched to journalists and fact-checkers across the globe in 2018.

    “Modern technology allows misleading claims to be spread at a faster rate than ever before,” said Will Moy, director of Full Fact.
    He added: “The next step is to develop a global infrastructure for automated factchecking. Live and Trends are central to that. We’ll be talking more about this at the Global Fact conference in Madrid next week.”…

    The BBC this week said it too intends to fight “fake news”, the state broadcaster announcing that it plans to expand its “Reality Check” fact-checking features.
    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/07/05/george-soros-funds-uk-fact-checker/

    6 Jul: UK Register: Google blows $800k on bots to flood the UK with 30,000 ‘articles’ a month
    Templated stories sourced from gov databases to push web ads. Welcome to your dystopia
    By Katyanna Quach
    The cash injection is part of the advertising goliath’s €150m Digital News Initiative, a three-year program that allegedly supports European journalism through technology (or, rather, helps websites get more readers and thus shift more Google ads). Now in its third and final year, the fund will bankroll 107 projects in 27 countries to the tune of €22m ($25m) in 2017.

    The Press Association project – codenamed RADAR, or Reporters and Data and Robots – will be a collaborative effort with Urbs Media, a UK startup that specializes in automated data journalism. The Press Association is Blighty’s equivalent of America’s Associated Press – a roving newswire that feeds stories to publications.

    PA said in a statement: “RADAR is intended to meet the increasing demand for consistent, fact-based insights into local communities, for the benefit of established regional media outlets, as well as the growing sector of independent publishers, hyperlocal outlets and bloggers.”…

    PA received the largest chunk of grants among other UK recipients. Other beneficiaries include:
    •Wikipedia – €385,000
    •City University, which has a popular journalism school – €335,113
    •Full Fact, the fact-checking organization – €300,000
    •Dennis Publishing, owner of various computing titles and other rags – €160,000
    •Al Jazeera – €50,000
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/07/06/robo_journalism_google/

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    Greg Cavanagh

    I’m not much of a statistician, but that graph does not look randomly distributed to me.

    It’s roughly bell curve, but for the sheer number of points in it, and from a so-called natural source, one would expect it to be more evenly distributed.

    I for one would not call that evenly distributed; therefor not random.

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    David Maddison

    Musk says he can build the battery in 100 days or there is no charge and he is demanding that the government write that clause into the contract.

    Good luck with that if militant CFMEU union thugs are involved and he doesn’t pay them whatever extortion they require.

    Musk says this will be the biggest battery in the world and three times the size of the next biggest one.

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    • #
      Egor the One

      The Biggest battery, for the Biggest Idiot in charge of the state of SA with Biggest power prices in the World . Congratulations WindMill WeatherDill …..maybe the Australian of the Year lefty award is coming your way!
      If it was up to me He and his cohort would be marched off in straight jackets.

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  • #
    ren

    You need to know that temperatures can now be extreme in winter and summer due to a fall in ozone production. This is due to a significant drop in EUV radiation. That is why in the summer there will be stronger UV radiation at the surface of the Earth.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2017.png
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_SH_2017.png

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Why do all the politicians and press releases talk about battery capacities in “MW”? It is meant to have a unit of time as well such as hour e.g. MWh.

    This is as ridiculous as referring to CO2 as “carbon”.

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    • #
      Robber

      I saw one report on the ABC that said 100 MW, 129 MWhr. So if we take 129 MWhr as the storage capacity, does that mean that if the average house consumes 12.9 kWhr/day, the Musk battery could run 1000 houses for a day? Or 30,000 houses as quoted for 1 hour?

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    • #
      Egor the One

      Most politicians are 95 % BS. They talk in MW …MWh, of which is irrelevant to most people !

      Most people are people with house and/or small business power bills and deal in KWh not MWh.
      Most should know what a KWh is because that is what is on your power bill…..I kwH = a 1000 watt hair dryer running for 1 hour,or a 2000 watt electric jug running continuously for 30 minutes , and so on
      The problem is we pay 30 cents per KWh in Aus (50c in SA) and going up , 12 cents in the US , 20 cents in the UK, 8 cents in China, Denmark 45 cents…..which means WindMill Weatherill’s SA is the dearest in the world !
      And in spite of what our BSer in Chief TurnBull and cohort tell us, there is much more pain to come, and all for nothing, except to make a number of Shyster Propagandists wealthy !

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  • #
    Robert Rosicka

    I love the question being ignored about the battery and how long will it last before it goes flat and how many homes will it power .

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  • #
    pat

    7 Jul: Brisbane Times: Toby Crockford: Brisbane shivers through coldest day in more than four years
    Brisbane has experienced its coldest day since 2013, with the top temperature reaching just 16 degrees on Friday.
    The last time it was so cold in Brisbane was on June 30 that year, with a top of 15.9 degrees. Earlier the same month, Brisbane dropped to a top of just 13.6 degrees.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/brisbane-shivers-through-coldest-day-in-more-than-four-years-20170707-gx73q2.html

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  • #
    Egor the One

    Now Batteries for the state of fleeing businesses ???
    129 MWH rating ……yes that is at day 1 . After each discharge all batteries lose capacity .
    In 10 years these batteries will be toxic scrap. And if they are discharged to 80% and deeper regularly, then their lifespan will drop to as little as 1 to 2 years.
    Not to mention charging loses encountered with any transfer of energy. For lead /acid batteries this is about 40% . That is to fully charge a 1 kw battery, 1.4 kw would be needed. Off hand I am not sure what Lithium Ion and Lithium Iron Phosphate are, but no battery is better than about a 20% power loss,not to mention these figure degrade with battery age and cycle usage.

    Also to consider is lithium batteries in particular, are even more sensitive to charging abuses such as would be involved with erratic power surges and fluctuations that are commonplace with the true b’lvers windmills . Such abuse could destroy the proposed battery system in no time.

    Why are they trying to use a remote area power system to power an entire state ?
    Only the stupid applaud it, while the shysters profits from it!
    Even if the CAGW religion was accurate, these intermittent toy power rackets and subsequent tiny co2 reductions will do nothing, and should be more than obvious to all that they will do nothing.
    Why do China and India get a free pass? Why is it okay that they and others can use our coal but we are sinners if we do or want to ?

    When others (we the little people) are forced to pay, then any obscene and absurd scheme becomes a viable proposition. The shysters flogging this junk, are the ones with their fists in the cookie jar. It’s that simple.
    Somehow, somewhere, the advocates and propagandists will be heavily invested in this scam.

    It’s profit by extortion, and until something serious is done about it, this racket will continue.

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    Peter

    To be honest this looks like simple (and stupid) programmer error in the display of data. If the data is rendered as 4 characters, that allows for up to ’99.9′ and ‘-9.9′ in the display. As soon as you get to ’100.1′ or ‘-10.1′ there are 5 characters, so the least significant digit is dropped, and the, now trailing, decimal is not displayed by the browser. Since 100.1 is highly unlikely, the first time that -10.1 (or lower) is reached this little bug will be found.

    To confirm, it would be important to know if the display was ‘-10′ or ‘-10.0′. If the latter, then data fudging, if the former, poor programming and testing.

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  • #

    ” But if the top-end limit is set at 52C …”

    Let’s hope so. According to ACORN daily records, the hottest ever day in Australia was 8 February 1933 in Albany when the maximum got to 51.2C (44.8C according to CDO). Albany is well known as a hellishly hot town and if the top-end limit is 52C we can rest assured that the 51.2C is an accurate ACORN record that hasn’t been adjusted.

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    Harry Twinotter

    “Yesterday, the BOM have acknowledged the error and at first deleted the -10.0 figure, replacing it with a blank space.”

    Is there a link to the BOM acknowlegment?

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  • #
    Harry Twinotter

    No mystery really. From the BOM website:

    “Minimum temperature in the 24 hours to 9am.
    Sometimes only known to the nearest whole degree.”

    The BOM were 100% correct. So over 200 comment about conspiracies and all sorts of things on this thread was based on total BS!

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW0000.shtml

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      The question is not one, of who said what and to whom, and when.

      We are told, repeatedly, that the Australian BOM is one of the leading meteorological organizations in the world.

      We are told that they use the finest, and most up to date equipment, with the highest precision, available.

      We have been prepared to accept that, at face value, because they have all the appearance of being professionals.

      But then we find that the measurements recorded, by this finest and most up to date equipment, needs “adjusting”, due to “quality control”? Say, what?

      But they are the premier yard-stick, against which, the rest of us should calibrate our own thermometers, and anemometers, rain gauges, and apple watches. If they argue that their equipment is inaccurate, and needs adjusting, what other equipment are they calibrating against, to determine the fact that there is a problem?

      So Jo’s article was more about the question of, who shall guard the guards? If the BOM feel the need to fiddle with the results produced by their superior, world class, up-to-the-minute, premier equipment and systems, where can the rest of us place our trust?

      Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

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      • #
        Harry Twinotter

        Rereke Whakaaro.

        It sounds like you are appealing to the Nirvana/Perfect solution fallacy to me. Or just trying to change the subject.

        “If the BOM feel the need to fiddle with the results produced by their superior..”

        This would make sense IF the BOM were fiddling with the results (presumably to get a desired outcome for… reasons). I have never seen any evidence for this. What does appear to be happening in this blog and others is to try and find “evidence” for an assumed conclusion – this is called confirmation bias.

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        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Nirvana/Perfect solution fallacy

          Was that something you made up, or did you just read it in a comic, somewhere?

          I am questioning why “adjustments” are deemed necessary, when they have access to, so called, state of the art measuring and recording equipment.

          Can you suggest any bona fide reasons why calibrated and accurate measuring equipment produces results that need post hoc adjusting.

          It is a very simple question Harry. They either go with the measurements, or they go with their alternative numbers. Can you explain why thousands of dollars worth of measuring equipment is so not up to it, that it needs manual intervention?

          And in case your Latin is not up to it, “post hoc“, means “after the event”, when it can’t be verified one way or the other.

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          • #
            Harry Twinotter

            “Was that something you made up, or did you just read it in a comic, somewhere?”

            No. It is a common logical fallacy that is documented all over the place. Try Wikipedia, they even give references.

            I have no idea what you mean by “adjustments” in this context. If you mean the BOMs quality control adjustments, yes sure they do them – I would be unhappy if they didn’t quality control their data.

            Sigh. You are asking rhetorical questions in the hope of implying, well something. I have no idea what the BOM AWSs cost I guess you can try asking them. Other than that, your rhetorical question is irrelevant to my post.

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            • #
              Rereke Whakaaro

              How do you “quality control” a single thermometer reading, after the event?

              What is “the control”, that the quality is compared against? And how do we assess the veracity of that “control”?

              In a dynamic environment, “quality control” can only mean, “I don’t like/believe that measurement, so we will ignore it, or change its value.”

              But as soon as you reject, or modify, what the measurements tell you, you are no longer doing science. You are doing Public Relations or playing politics.

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    dbeyat45

    I’ve seen this type of “error” before and I think this is a fault in BOM procedures, not anything sinister. It’s possibly to do with the the fact that “live” data is published for individual stations at half hourly intervals. When station downloads are complete, there would be Tmax and Tmin figures in the record, requiring an update.

    PS: Australian temperature records are in an appalling state but i think this one is explainable.

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    • #
      Harry Twinotter

      dbeyat45

      Do you know what the BOM procedures are so you can judge them? “Fault” is a rather hash word for a figure from a website (the only way anyone could know what the thermometer actually measured would be to manually check the instrument). I don’t think the temperature records are in an “appalling” state.

      I can use my imagination and speculate that -10C might have been the threshold for an automatic “out of range” check applied to the data that appeared on the website. The BOM say on their website that complete quality controls can take months to do. If it is an automatic weather station this could involve someone manually checking the thermometer to make sure it did not ice up or something like that.

      It’s academic now – the CDO dataset now has -10.4C recorded. The monthly low temperature record probably has not been declared yet as the month is not over.

      This post is an amazing house of cards. Much was presumed without checking with the BOM first, many pointless rhetorical questions asked based, not on reality, but on an assumption. And Jennifer Marohasy’s defamation of the BOM (“I would have the managers at the Bureau put in the Goulburn jail”) is pretty shabbly.

      The headline “Bureau Erases Goulburn Record Minimum Temperature: Set Sunday 2 July 2017″ is absurd.

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        Rereke Whakaaro

        Can you explain the official BOM procedures, so we can understand them? And can you explain the actual procedures used by the BOM in specific circumstances, such as the rejection of readings from calibrated and state-of-the-are equipment, to be replaced by post hoc values, referred to as “adjustments”, so we can all assess their veracity, and understand why such contradictions might occur?

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        • #
          Harry Twinotter

          Refer to my previous comment about your rhetorical questions being irrelevant to what I posted.

          Again, I do not know what you mean by “adjustments” in this context, so I cannot answer. I guess you can ask the BOM, read their website and scientific studies, or get an internship at the BOM and work there.

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      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Oh, and can you please respond to my comments at 83.1.1.1?

        I am looking forward to learning your rationale for rejecting readings from calibrated equipment.

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        • #
          Harry Twinotter

          “I am looking forward to learning your rationale for rejecting readings from calibrated equipment.”

          What “rejected readings”? Were did the BOM “reject” readings? The whole fuss is about a figure that appeared on a website, a long way removed from the actual instrument reading. And I posted a link to a copy of the correspondence someone had with the BOM (good they did that), the BOM’s explanation looks fine to me.

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          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            In Jo’s original article:

            The BOM got caught this week auto-adjusting cold extremes to be less cold.
            … this was an automated event where the thermometer recorded something beyond a set limit, and the value put into the official database was the artificial limit. [my emphasis]

            Thus the actual reading from calibrated equipment was rejected.

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  • #
    Harry Twinotter

    So it appears the tip off about the erroneous figure in the BOM website came from… the BOM! An odd sort of conspiracy, don’t you think? :-)

    http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri16/goulbbommail-mint2jul17.jpg

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Nobody is suggesting a conspiracy – that is your word, not mine. Besides, claims of a conspiracy is possibly a strategy to avoid my unrelated technical questions.

      I am trying to understand the arcane processes used by the BOM in producing their forecasts and recording actual measurement against those forecasts, and why they feel that “adjustments” might be necessary. After all, their equipment works, or it does not. For if it does not, then they will have some serious explaining to do, given the level of financial investment made.

      So I would appreciate it if you could respond to my comments at 83.1.1.1, 84.1.1, and 84.1.2 (which requests a response to 83.1.1.1)

      You started this discussion at #83, and I am still awaiting some sensible answers from you.

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      • #
        Harry Twinotter

        I did not direct my post to you personally. I posted a comment on this article. It’s pretty clear.

        “After all, their equipment works, or it does not”

        This sounds like black-and-white thinking (refer to my comments on the Nirvana fallacy). Anyway I am now repeating myself which is not much use.

        Well, it is only your opinion that I have not provided “sensible answers”. Everyone has opinions, me included.

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        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          If you post in comments on a blog, then you are directing your posts to anybody who reads the blog.

          But you need to be sure of what purpose you have in commenting. You, I fear, want to protect the BOM, for whatever reasons you have.

          My motivation is a constant search the the truth. I know the truth, when I see it. I also know when people are lying or spinning the truth for political or commercial ends.

          As for the Nirvana fallacy, as you refer to it, I would suggest that you consider the fact that the Australian tax payer, through the Australian Government, pays for a truthful representation of the weather today, and tomorrow, and for the foreseeable future. That is not Nirvana. That is contracted.

          Any scare stories that are adjunct to that core business, beyond a truthful representation of the weather today, and tomorrow, are purely political, because we have no evidence regarding of the future, and that includes strange or unusual climatic phenomena, that just happen to be presented with much drama and supposedly dire consequences.

          The BOM are paid from taxation, and as such, they are employed by the population, and owe their duty to them. Politicians may try to suborn that relationship, but the electorate are wise to that as well, and will presumably vote accordingly, at the next election.

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    angech

    You started this discussion at #83, and I am still awaiting some sensible answers from you
    A wait in value n as Twinotter is one if the worst trolls .
    He does not even have sensible opinions.
    Such a shame that BOM felt compelled to change it.
    No
    Scientists of integrity left or too scared

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    • #
      Harry Twinotter

      Would you like some cheese with that whine? :-)

      Sensible answers require sensible questions.

      10