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South Australian electricity is coming your way

Yesterday 90,000 customers lost power in SA (making it Blackout Round 5 since the big one last September).

This time it was due to load shedding.

SA power woes to spread nation-wide, starting with Victoria, Australian Energy Council warns

The Federal Government needs to take urgent action to improve its energy policies before the rest of Australia falls victim to the type of large-scale blackouts experienced in South Australia, the Australian Energy Council has warned.

It’s not just that renewables muck up the electricity supply (with frequency and instability issues), they also drive a pike through the energy market. These are two separate disruptors. We’ve seen inexplicable spikes in power prices in SA in seasons when it shouldn’t happen, but this might be a new form of volatility. Wind power produced 900MW earlier in the day, but that fell to below 100MW within 6 hours (which is not that usual, see the post yesterday for the graph). The problem, apparently, was that no one thought it was worth turning on their generators?

SA has enough generation (if only it was running), but when the crunch came, the market failed:

It asked for more power generators to be switched on but did not receive “sufficient bids” and said it did not have enough time to turn on the second unit at Pelican Point.

AEC chief executive officer Matthew Warren said there was no shortage of electrons and available power, but it was not dispatched when required.

The “free market” will be blamed, but the energy market is not a free market — but a bit of a creeping Soviet style takeover. The government subsidizes some, punishes others, then has to pay some not to produce, and when the punishees start to go broke it has to pay them to standby “as needed” or nationalize them. We are not free to choose our energy supply. Retailers are not free to compete. If you wanted to build a power station with your own funds and sell cheap electricity to willing consumers, the government would not let you do it.

A few more insights come from this article:

But AEMO executive general manager of stakeholders Joe Adamo said they did not have enough time to switch on the plant yesterday.

“When we were talking to Pelican Point, it was decided that the lead time for Pelican Point to actually bid into the market was too short a timeframe and as such we had to take the load shedding action,” he said.

The operators of Adelaide’s back up power station at Pelican Point, ENGIE, said in statement it could not provide additional power for South Australia unless directed to do so by AEMO.

Note the costs:

Another storm in December forced the power distributor to announce compensation payments totalling $20 million to about 75,000 customers after lengthy blackouts.

WA Labor has just promised to go to 50% renewables and look quite likely to win in four weeks at the state election. We are a small grid with no connection to the rest of the nation. South Australia can’t make it with 40% renewables and two interconnections. WA is aiming for 50% with no interstate back up and a depressed economy. This’ll “be fun”.

Things must be getting serious – SA Liberals are talking about maybe, possibly, could be, the nuclear option.

To appreciate just how dire the situation is, ponder that this is the same leader who ruled out a low level nuclear waste dump in SA:

Despite opposing a high-level nuclear waste dump in South Australia, state Liberal leader Steven Marshall is now proposing nuclear power as a potential solution to the state’s energy reliability issues.

Looks like A-Grade hypocrisy:

…today he said that did not mean he or his party were against the production of high-level nuclear waste in South Australia, via nuclear energy generation.

So making high level radioactive waste is fine. Storing that medical grade stuff is out of the question.

This is strong language from an Australian politician: “We’ve never ruled out the nuclear opportunity for energy.”

 

h./t DAvid B

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South Australian electricity is coming your way, 9.2 out of 10 based on 84 ratings

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260 comments to South Australian electricity is coming your way

  • #
    scaper...

    It won’t be coming our way in Queensland. Mark my words!

    111

    • #
      bobl

      I suspect noone will govern in QLD without one nation on board after the next election, so QLD may be spared the green torture for a while. But scaper, if they get even close I’ll make sure to do my bit for the plants by using a diesel generator instead of the grid.

      212

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I’m waiting for the first person to die on an operating table when the hospitals power goes out due to these green/leftist lunatics….then they wont be able to run far enough before people with burning torches and pitchforks catch up with them….so to speak….

        321

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          G’day OS,
          I live in hope that even the Greens wake up before such a sacrifice is made.
          Dave B

          82

          • #
            ColA

            Hey Dave, you been taking the same happy pills as the Greens? you need to leave those pills alone mate, can’t you see the greenies of well and truly off in Lala land, they may as well be on another planet as they have no concept with earth realities!!

            131

          • #
            Geoff

            The Greens have morphed into old fashioned Marxists. They are now the enemy of capitalism and democracy. No longer interested in the environment they want power for powers sake and are quite prepared to destroy our economy to get it.

            123

        • #
          Wally

          Hospitals have backup generators to prevent this.

          61

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Yes they do, but ask the people who actually service and test them, and you will find the number of generators that either dont start or people forget to start them, and its a significant number. And the battery bank you’d need to run a hospital for even 30 mins would be huge.

            In hurricane Katrina, the authorities msyteriously took 4 days to get aid into New Orleans, which is about the time required for unattended people in hospitals to die without supplies and power…odd, no?

            31

            • #
              Mr Farnham

              They are generally diesel and protected by UPS for the short timeframe that they take to start automatically. I don’t know specifically about hospitals, but where I work the most critical systems have the most robust backup

              41

            • #
              Ted O'Brien

              I knew that New Orleans was a disaster waiting to happen. It was written up in the National Geographic. Built on “new ground” on a great river delta it is sinking under its own weight. The levees must be maintained and augmented.

              Why didn’t the US government know this?

              41

              • #
                Senex

                They did, but it wasn’t high on their spending priorities list.

                The Greens could always spin Katrina as a step towards returning the Mississippi Delta to its natural state..

                20

            • #
              jorgekafkazar

              “…the number of generators that either don’t start or people forget to start them [is] a significant number.”

              Perfect. The Greens will simply blame the generators or the people. Not that the MSM will mention the deaths, of course.

              42

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              “…… have backup generators to prevent this.”
              They said the same thing about backup generators to maintain circulation in the heavily crowded spent fuel pools at Fukushima too.

              10

        • #
          clive

          “Those with pitchforks to the left, those with torches to the right, those with burning pitchforks to the front”

          20

    • #
      Graham Richards

      Just you wait ‘Enry ‘Iggins, just you wait..

      When Victoria & SA are blacking out the rest of the country will be called on “to share” their good fortune of energy & we’ll all suffer.

      The Socialists are hell bent on destroying our economy & our blessed way of life!

      102

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Unless the rather sedate Australian mob wake up, and go a bit bolshie ( a la the French method ) I doubt anything will change.

        That said, the first person to die on the operating table due to a power shed will galvanize people into action, and based on how the Oz troops used to do jungle warfare in ww2 ( as its in the British DNA…), I wouldnt want to be in the way when their blood is up.

        I hope the NWO numpties might understand this….poking the Oz “bull” isnt smart….it will go off in your face….so to speak….

        40

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Part of me actually wonders whether this is all a big set up – namely SA would know full well the renewables would eventually crash their grid, so you are left wondering whether the cry to “nationalize the grid” is to make sure its all eventually collpased by the ex-Sacks of Gold fearless leader, on cue…..

        I guess if you control both sides of the fight, its easy to steer a “crisis” where you want it to go….

        False flag anyone?

        21

    • #
      scaper...

      Malcolm Roberts ripping into the Greens.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXojuwHdCCs

      Another one. Blue tape is a new one for me.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1IkrnnQZIk

      Yet another one.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdhd9igIsRI

      After the four minute mark is very poignant in relation to my first comment.

      21

      • #
        Rod Stuart

        Notice that he is speaking to an empty house. We are paying these bozos to sit in those seats and learn, but the seats are all vacant. Roberts is well worth listening to. Instead, they listen to the insanity of a Nick McKim or a Sarah Sea Patrol. No wonder this country is is trouble.

        61

        • #
          scaper...

          It is piped to the Senators’ chambers. The Senators or their staffers have to listen to ensure not to miss something of importance. The Greens were most probably in the courtyard garden copulating with the fairies.

          Same for the Lower House. Was cut short once talking to an MP because the bell was ringing. Malcolm has been congratulated by many MPs for going after the Greens and the scam. They just can’t do same because of party lines.

          Quite sad really. The little champ is our voice in Parliament.

          61

      • #
        clive

        Go Malcolm and One Nation.They are probably the only ones who give a”Stuff”about”Our”country.
        The climate change believers are still at war with reality. That is a war that cannot be won. Sadly, they have and will cause great damage to the rest of us on their way to their final battle.

        10

  • #
    KinkyKeith

    As mentioned the other day I have been taking great delight in watching the collapse of the scientific period just ending.

    It has been characterized by a highly plausible breed of Science Communicators whose job has been to “explain” “science” to the lesser educated taxpayer / voters.

    On the Drum tonight I managed to stomach a few minutes of the discussion about the current South Australian power down. The mode of operation of the talking heads was to cover as many facets of the problem as possible and so give the impression of thoroughness. I became mentally fatigued after enduring the constant change of direction and lost hope that a consensus would be reached when lo and behold one speaker had the guts to sum it all up.

    It seems that South Australia’s electricity supply problem is due to our failure to address climate change.

    Yes, climate change did all that damage to the power supply in SA.

    And these people are on huge salaries paid by US.

    And yes, we are being taken for a ride by our national broadcaster and the politicians who keep it afloat on a sea of our tax dollars.

    KK

    623

    • #
      Analitik

      It’s obvious that climate change caused the rolling blackouts.
      South Australia has NEVAH had such sustained scorching temperatures. EVAH

      292

      • #
        Albert

        When Victoria had the last fire catastrophe that killed many, SA had high temps, it’s normal, not ‘never’

        50

        • #
          KinkyKeith

          One hundred and seventy three lives gone in that fire.

          And it wasn’t long after that a serious fire went through Tasmania where they made the assumption that wood doesn’t burn in a cold climate.

          We have too many enthusiastic science communicators and not enough real scientists.

          110

          • #
            Albert

            Prime Minister Gillard said Tasmania had its first fire however much of the forest is eucalyptus and it requires fire and smoke for the seed to be released and germinate. Some people are blind to real science

            50

            • #
              Robert Rosicka

              Albert , when the greens called the Tassie fire “unprecedented ” I did some research and found that over the years Tasmania has had its fair share of large fires .
              And in the same area .

              90

      • #
        Dennis

        Normal summer weather conditions.

        70

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Tonight on their ABC, there’s a new slant on why power prices are so high.

      Apparently, the fossil fuel generators are, and I quote, “gaming the system”.

      This is especially the case in Queensland where fossil fuel ripoffs are rife.

      Now I’m totally confused.

      10

      • #
        Rick Will

        The frequency of incidents will increase and the AEMO and coal generators will be increasingly blamed for the problems besetting the power supply industry. The renewable zealots are naive about how the NEM works. Here is an example of how the focus of blame is being directed toward the greedy owners of coal plant:
        http://reneweconomy.com.au/high-energy-prices-blame-fossil-fuel-generators-not-renewables-84196/

        How can the AEMO ever hope to provide reliable forecast of supply from sources that can go from full bore to zero in a matter of seconds. There will be huge opportunities for fast response on-demand power sources to make a fortune out of this situation – guess who pays!

        Snowy Hydro must be salivating at the prospect of Victoria following SA’s lead to the dark side.

        30

  • #
    Paul Bamford

    Nuclear is clean and efficient works 24/7 no-matter what the weather is, and South Australia is awash with it. So they build windmills instead. The stupidity beggars belief.

    540

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      “clean and efficient”…….. we could power our first privately owned Australian nuclear reactors from radioactive sushi in a world first attempt to recycle the global glut of waste nuclear material caused by nuclear wardrobe malfunctions .

      416

      • #
        • #
          Leo Morgan

          A non-nuclear explosion in an engine room does not qualify as a nuclear accident.
          Otherwise we could talk about all the ‘nuclear accidents’ at wind farms.

          371

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            Lets be clear about “Nuclear”.

            Nuclear requires extremely skilled personnel to prevent meltdowns and the like. These personnel are as rare as what we sometimes call ‘HENS TEETH’ and any lack of supply of these “hens teeth’ (Highly trained professionals) results in what is known collectively in the west as a “meltdown” or something similar.

            So in the event of a war or any kind of social upheaval or a natural disaster and then all of a sudden there is a lack of the aforementioned “professionals’….well then, the only thing that will prevent catastrophic failure is a a second class of personnel that basically are fed in through the gates of the nuclear power station to pick up one piece of ruble and get out.

            That’s right!!!….The new personnel who are enlisted work for approximately 30 seconds or perhaps an hour and then their life of working is over or they expire not long afterwards.

            Anyone who thinks nuclear is a great is seriously conditioned, especially in view of the facts at hand.

            If there is even the slightest war an ICBM going off somewhere near one of these nuclear powered mouse traps, well then i really would be wasting my time trying to explain as it would show a level of indoctrination that can not be remedied.

            I guess the only cure would be to among one of the non skilled personnel employed to work for an hour to clean up after one of these nuclear powered mouse traps goes off.

            naturally i am in fear that it would only take one missile to go off in the wrong place and instantly there would be a lack of the rare as hens teeth nuclear professionals who are never required to o in and pick up a small piece of rubble after the event of a nuclear malfunction or a temporarily unattended nuclear power plant.

            00

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              It is my firm opinion that anyone who wants nuclear power stations should be forced to go and work at Fukushima for example, to help clean up and perform activities that robots are not able to perform due to the intense radiation that is out of control there. It would prove to myself and the rest of us who are skeptical that nuclear is probably ok.

              Anyone who is willing to do that has the right to say nuclear is a good idea.

              00

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                I guess i cold simplify the matter further by asking, who amongst us would be willing to persuade one of our nearest and dearest to go to Fukushima to help pick up radioactive ruble and other similar task??

                00

    • #
      PeterS

      With all things equal I would agree with you that we ought to go nuclear. However, all things are not equal. We have an abundance of cheap coal. Building and maintaining nuclear reactors is far more expensive. Finally, some countries are moving away from nuclear and towards coal, such as Japan for obvious reasons. So unless one believes in the AGW nonsense, building more coal fired power stations is the obvious choice for us here in Australia.

      220

    • #
      Graham Richards

      The Socialists are not interested in having clean energy (nuclear) either. Their ambition is to shut down industry, mining & everything else that will support our way of life .

      In their interests were in clean plentiful energy they’d have backed nuclear years ago.
      It’s obvious when they’re even against hydroelectric.

      101

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        I agree with much that you have to say Graham, although i would say it is blindingly obvious that nuclear is very unclean.

        From my post above this one it uses the word “decontamination’ and the word “troops”.

        00

    • #
      Geoff

      A 2GW Nuke near Port Augusta is seriously being considered. It will take 5 years to build after all the “approvals”.

      It would create a nuclear industry in a bankrupt state.

      When the oil finally runs out in the Cooper Basin the SA State Government will lose its main source of cash flow. A nuclear industry makes sense and gives Victoria options. 600MW could flow back to Alcoa.

      Hazelwood shuts next month. Loy Yang B is up for sale. It may be closed if no buyer is found.

      This is a Rudd Gillard mess as decisions needed to be made then to cover our use now.

      121

      • #
        Rusty

        South Australia could become an ‘Energy Exporter’, just imagine that. Nah NEVER happen, not in a thousand lifetimes!

        30

      • #
        David Maddison

        But the people of SA don’t want a nuke or any reliable power generation. They have explicitly voted to live in Third World conditions.

        30

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          David i can understand your enthusiasm.. I am trying to see it from your perspective..

          It could work really well as Australia has a ‘work for the dole’ scheme and in the event of a nuclear malfunction of any kind, we have plenty of unskilled workers who would only need to work for half an hour at the most each to pick up a piece of radioactive debris or the like and remove it during the event of decontamination procedures or the like.

          It has been shown that skilled workers are not needed to perform nuclear decontamination. All they have to do is done some gloves and do their bit. It’s a win win solution.

          In Japan and even in Russia after Chernobyl, age was no barrier to meaningful decontamination employment. Many just wanted to give something back or had other altruistic motives for volunteering to go in and decommission or decontaminate a nuclear power plant.

          All you need is a location to put the nuclear power plant where there is a significant sample/demographic of the population who are willing to get their hands dirty should things go wrong.

          It has been shown that a single nuclear disaster can produce in excess of 10′s of thousands of jobs overnight in the event of nuclear malfunction over many decades.

          “Still Cleaning Up: 30 Years After the Chernobyl Disaster”
          https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2016/04/still-cleaning-up-30-years-after-the-chernobyl-disaster/476748/

          00

    • #
      Frank

      Paul,
      Would you be happy to have the waste stored in your backyard ?

      05

      • #
        KinkyKeith

        Frank

        Would you be happy to go without electricity for a whole year and perhaps even have an ABC crew document your endeavours so that everyone can see what life in “The renewable energy future” would be like?

        KK

        70

      • #
        Konrad

        The size of the waste to be stored after a life time of nuclear power for one person in France is about the size of an Australian $2 coin. It is all stored in a secure facility the size of a basketball court. Do you think there is nowhere on this massive desert island we couldn’t find for such a small facility?

        Remember, just like French MOX reactors, LFTR (Thorium) reactors eat most of their own waste.

        A nation dependant on wind power can’t afford the energy to build or maintain wind turbines. A nation using LFTR can afford the energy to build an maintain reactors.
        PS. Wouldn’t mind some nuclear material in my back yard. I could set up a small Seebeck generator that would power the house for a lifetime.

        80

      • #
        Wayne Job

        Frank if you have ever explored SA you would find lots of empty space most of it uninhabited crap land, lots of places out of the way to store nuclear waste.

        70

      • #
        bobl

        If they built a secure containment facility that met MY standards and were prepared to pay me 200 Million per annum for rent then my answer would probably be yes, go ahead.

        00

    • #
      Senex

      Australia has lots of uranium, but how about thorium? Anywhere you find rare earths or monazite sand you will find thorium..

      20

      • #
        bobl

        Which is interesting because all the windmills have “Already had” their “Nuclear accidents” with the Radioactive Thorium that is left behind in the tailing piles.

        Australia has the worlds largest known reserves of Thorium yet is the CSIRO working on Thorium reactors?

        00

  • #
    Bitter&Twisted

    The trouble is the market is not free.
    It is hopelessly distorted by subsidies.
    A classic example of Government failure.
    Roll on the blackouts.

    290

  • #
    turnedounice

    The answer is obvious: install smart meters so only the rich can stay cool…….[For the UK replace ‘cool’ with ‘warm’.]

    210

    • #
      Robber

      Now there’s an idea. All those who tick “green energy” on their electricity contract should be the first to be blacked out when the wind doesn’t blow – that’s what smart meters are for!

      30

      • #
        bobl

        They should also have their voltage reduced according to the percentage of nameplate being produced at the time, so on those hot humid still nights they should get say 1% or about 2.4 Volts. It takes around 4 volts to charge their smartphones….

        10

  • #
    Graeme #4

    Actually WA Labour are now saying that they will decide AFTER they are elected. Just trust us…yeah, right.

    290

    • #
      Spetzer86

      Could you trust them anyway? (No carbon tax under the government I lead…)

      120

      • #
        PeterS

        My thoughts exactly. ALP and the Greens will guarantee the destruction of this once great nation simply because they are the most avid followers of the global warming myth. A vote for them is a vote for the economic destruction of Australia at the fastest rate possible. The other side is more like a slow death but at least it will take much longer and perhaps they can change for the better in time. As for the ALP and Greens they will never change.

        170

    • #
      Dennis

      We are not the same as those fools from the east !!!

      30

    • #
      King Geo

      Graeme #4 – “Actually WA Labour are now saying that they will decide AFTER they are elected. Just trust us…yeah, right”.

      The WA Election is next month (11 March) – all the WA Barnett Libs have to do is undertake a “Medicare-type Scare Campaign”, ie like the ALP Feds did in the 2016 Fed Election and nearly got them over the line. But this time around it will be a “50% RE Scare Campaign – do you want your electricity supply hijacked like in SA”? You see it is in the ALP’s DNA to fast track to RE (50% RET by 2030). McGowan’s WA ALP Party will have trouble convincing many voters here in WA that their Party is different to the other Aussie ALP Parties – the ALP website says “50% RET in OZ by 2030″ – Really? – and end up like SA – an economic basket case!!!

      50

    • #
      Rusty

      Yeah they will decide ‘after the election’ to install 50% renewables. Faux Labor at it again.

      30

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    Nuclear and coal fired and even CCGT are not viable in SA because the fluctuating supply from wind, plus it being able to undercut conventional suppliers due to its subsidy through RECs. Any new nuclear or coal fired plant will have to be larger than the combined Northern power station of 520MW, and thus even more exposed to the vagaries of wind.
    The only way to stabilise the SA system is to restrict wind output, and the quickest way to do that is eliminating the RECs subsidy. But first you would have to build the replacement, and there would have to be guaranties about output, price and years of operation.

    And while agreeing that the SA Cabinet have stupidly blundered into disaster, I point out that the Premiers of Vic. and Qld. and the would-be Premier of WA (as well as the Leader of the Opposition) have all seen that disaster unfold and STILL want to do the same. Time for compulsory drug checks on politicians because they couldn’t be that stupid naturally.

    441

    • #
      Analitik

      Respectfully, I disagree. The LRET with its RECs is a political tug of war that will require immense political negotiation and campaigning to repeal. And it is only half the reason that renewables have been able to undermine the operation and profitability of thermal generators.

      Priority access to the market via the “semi-dispatchable” classification, where the renewable generators can produce whenever they are capable, regardless of demand and market bids AND are not required to provide any guarantee of supply is the other half of the equation of doom.

      Renewables need BOTH the direct financial support of the RECs and the heedless operating freedom provided by market priority access to survive and thus blight our grids and countryside. Of the 2, the crucial importance of market priority access would not be well comprehended by the vast majority of the politicians nor the electorate. Removing the “semi-dispatchable” classification and making renewable generators bid ahead and guarantee supply (else face fines) would barely raise a political ripple vs the bun fight the killing the LRET would entail. It could be sold to the masses as recognition that renewables are “mature” and “reliable” and can thus operate in the same manner as thermal generators.

      I appreciate that the LRET is fundamentally repugnant since it lends credence to the CAGW / carbon pollution scam and should be scrapped. But removal of market priority access will kill the wind (and solar) farms just as effectively and I contend, far more quickly and easily.

      370

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        True, but the wind scammers will then set up OCGT stations to “provide security of supply”. There have been a swag of them built in SA and they come on line when the conditions are right – no wind and the market price is above $300 per MWh. As they put out almost as much CO2 as a HELE coal station you wonder what problem they solve (apart from the rising price of Lamborghinis etc.).

        91

        • #
          Analitik

          As long as the wind farms have to supply the OCGT generated electricity at the amount and rate they bid the previous day and for the period specified, then that’s fine by me. Their installation and running costs will far exceed the REC value.

          It’s a lose/lose situation. If they raise their bid price to cover the possibility of having to run the OCGTs, then they will price themselves out of the market. If they bid at a competitive rate, the running costs of the OCGTs will destroy their profitability, even if with the REC support. Plus they would often have to curtail as they often could not bid anywhere near their namplate capacity else there would be no hope of supplying if the wind dropped out unless they built OCGT capacity almost equal to the nameplate capacity of the farm.

          Market bids are a contractual obligation with financial penalties for non-compliance. That someone as knowlegable, experienced and clear thinking as you haven’t seen that removing their current exemption from this gives me confidence that this exemption could be removed without a protracted political fight.

          90

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            Unless of course their supply was deemed to be green and therefore given RECs; but who would be stupid enough to do that? Outside of our State and Federal politicians, the public service, the head of the CPAs and sillyfilly. (I’ve just been reading comments in the Australian).

            90

            • #
              Analitik

              The price of a REC would not cover the running cost of an OCGT – not by a long shot. The price is capped by the LRET shortfall penalty which is around $93 and usually gets traded far lower.

              These wind farm support OCGTs would be deemed “green” anyway since they are the wind farms’ “backup” so all power produced is supplied by the “green” source. It doesn’t matter – financially, they would be ruined. This is the power making the wind (and solar) farms operate by the market rules. The market would do the work without further political action.

              80

          • #
            Analitik

            arrgh!!! :(

            Last sentence should read

            That someone as knowlegable, experienced and clear thinking as you hasn’t seen that removing their current exemption from this would destroy them, financially, gives me confidence that this exemption could be removed without a protracted political fight.

            80

          • #
            KinkyKeith

            Hi Graeme#3 and Analytic

            You guys obviously know what you are talking about but could we just sum it up in a simple way that even the Greens and climate catastrophes would understand and perhaps even relate to?

            Using the current PC language of Science Communicators, would you agree with the statement that both coal and gas fired electricity suppliers are being “discriminated against”.

            Isn’t “discrimination” wrong?

            The questions that the public needs to be made aware of are:g
            1. Is there discrimination against fossil fuels.
            2. What is that discrimination and who is responsible.
            3. What is this costing me directly in dollars on my annual power bill.
            4. Who is responsible?

            ?
            KK

            50

          • #
            Rod Stuart

            Quite correct.
            It is amazing that all these talking heads discuss this nonsense without a single clue about the way electricity is produced, transmitted, and distributed.
            People have become so accustomed to “turning on” the lights, or an electric motor that they apparently think starting up a 13E2 in a CCGT plant like Pelican Point is a matter of “turning it on”, as though there are no costs or preparation associated with that.

            70

            • #
              Graeme #4

              How long does it take for a gas turbine to come online? I originally thought 24 hours, but it seems the Pelican Point units take about 4-6 hours. In WA I believe we have small gas turbines along the natural gas line that can come online quite fast.

              20

              • #
                Rod Stuart

                How long is a piece of string? It depends.
                Light duty aero-derivative peakers can be at full load from dispatch in about ten minutes. (Say less than 50 MW)
                But in order to do that you pay through the nose for maintenance.
                Every start/stop cycle is equivalent to some period of operating time in maintenance costs. Rapid starts cause high temperature parts to change temperature rapidly, which causes cracks prematurely.
                Heavy duty industrial gas turbines up to 20 MW or so could be at full load in twenty minutes from dispatch, but the extraordinary maintenance costs will kill you unless you are bidding in at $8oo/MW or more. With larger components they are subject penalty maintenance costs unless the ramp rate is such that full load is achieved in an hour or so.
                Heavy duty industrials in combined cycle service usually require several hours. Full load might be achieved in three or four hours with an ABB 13E2 such as Pelican Point,once the preparatory steps have been accomplished. (The 13E2 is relatively small machine at 160 MW for this type of service so it could be on line quicker that some of its big cousins like the GT26) In this case however the boiler must be brought up to temperature as well. A great deal depends on whether or not the boiler is wet or dry. They can’t sit idle and wet for more than a few days, so if you are starting from a dry layup state there is a delay of several hours to days. “The hurrier I go, the behinder I get”. Rushing this process can be extremely hard on the maintenance budget. They are built to go on and stay on for a year or so without stopping. This might give people some idea as to why the wholesale price has tripled in as many years.

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                Analitik

                From memory, the gas turbine can be ramped up from cold to full power in around an hour but the secondary steam turbine takes another 3 to 4 hours to get to full power.

                In the case of Pelican Point, there is a single secondary steam turbine with it’s boiler heated by the “waste” heat from both of the gas turbines so if only one gas turbine is running, the full output can be reached an hour (since the steam boiler/turbine system is already hot).
                http://www.gdfsuezau.com/education/Gas-Fired-Power-Station

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              • #
                Graeme #4

                Thanks Rod – very informative. I don’t think the general public are fully aware that you can’t just turn large “backup” generators on and off, and the only real solution is to keep them running all the time, which defeats the whole reason for using renewables.

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              • #
                Rod Stuart

                Yes, Analitik, I was providing an answer in general terms.
                In the specific case of Pelican Point the GT’s are 160 MW each and the steamer is 165MW.
                I don’t know whether the HRSG is partitioned or whether or not each GT has an exhaust bypass valve.
                Generally speaking, if a single unit configuration is frequent, it would be difficult to maintain sufficient superheat to enable decent overall efficiency.
                IF we make a lot of assumptions, and the plant and control room were sufficiently manned, it is conceivable to ramp up the second machine in an hour from time of dispatch.
                However, if you were the operator, you would have to question how long it would take to requisition the fuel gas. Bringing on another unit places demands of the fuel system which are not necessarily met quickly.
                You would be saying “this request is possible at a considerable cost to me. How much are you willing to pay?”

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              • #
                Analitik

                I take your point. From the picture in the following link, it does appear that they have a separate HRSG for each GT http://www.gdfsuezau.com/about-us/asset/Pelican-Point-Power-Station

                We need people like you to point operating realities to those id1ots like that David Blowers from the Grattan Institute who are blaming the AEMO for not ordering the firing up the second Pelican Point GT when the wind dropped out. No mention at all for who pays to have the GT on hot standby let alone what would constitute the conditions which would warrant putting it on hot standby.

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              • #
                bobl

                It depends what sort of plant it is, if it is a direct turbine then think of a jet aircraft, those turbines generate up to around 75 Megawatts and spin up in a couple of minutes. If it’s indirect eg Gas makes steam makes power, then it’s much longer.

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            • #
              Rod Stuart

              Sorry, bobl but you are wrong.
              For instance, the Rolls Royce Trent WLE60 is a modified version of the Trent 600 aviation engine.
              Instead of a turbo fan, the LP turbine is directly coupled to an electrical generator of 60 MW.
              From the time dispatch requests a start, it is several minutes before the initial checks and purge cycle have completed. Then another ten minutes at least, if it is a successful start, until synchronisation. From there is a matter of how quickly you can afford to ramp it up. More than about 1 MW per second will cost you maintenance dollars to get to full load.
              It is the same thing with a GE LM 2500, which drives the alternator from the cold end rather than the hot end. It is the same spool that drives the gen set in any case.
              For those aeroderivatives that are aerodynamically coupled to a power turbine, for instance a Rolls Royce Industrial Spey Mk 1900 or RB211, add another ten minutes for the power turbine to come to temperature.

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          • #
            ROM

            Analitik @ # 7.1.1.1

            As long as the wind farms have to supply the OCGT generated electricity at the amount and rate they bid the previous day and for the period specified,

            Which I think is now the requirement put in place by the Spanish government for wind farms and solar farms if they want to be paid and collect any subsidies for their power input to the grid.

            Failure to meet those predictions that have to be lodged some 24 hours in advance of the proposed energy output by the renewables to the Spanish grid, a policy in part created to allow the grid operators to plan ahead as well as reel in the gross abusing of the subsidy system by the renewable energy scammers, leads to large fines and loss of income for the renewable energy generators

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            • #
              Graeme No.3

              ROM:
              Thank you. We could call Analitik’s plan The Spanish Solution. That would appeal to the Greens as they consider Spain is a renewables success story. I doubt the wind scammers will be so happy but who cares about them?

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      • #
        Robber

        And it gets worse if you project out to 50% renewables, read mainly wind. So when the wind is blowing strongly, those wind generators will be able to supply 150% of total demand (as their average capacity factor is about 35%). That means every other power supplier has to shutdown. But then the wind eases, even drops to zero, and those always reliable coal/gas stations must come on line quickly to save us. When will the penny drop with our dumb politicians? Seems their “scientific” advisers are all watermelons.

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    • #
      Senex

      “Time for compulsory drug checks on politicians because they couldn’t be that stupid naturally.”

      Don’t underestimate the effects of inbreeding.

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    • #
      clive

      You are talking about”Leftards”are you not?

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  • #
    John Watt

    Perhaps by succumbing to power industry privatisation we have given away any public influence over power generation technology choice. The future generation technology will be the one that makes enough profit for the private owner. The public will pay the profiteer’s price because electricity is a 21st century necessity.
    So it is possible we will get low output largely “renewable” generation installations with all the South Australian implications rather than the well established pattern of 1000 MW plus base load coal fired installations. The large economically attractive stations with their long construction times will be too large a business risk for private enterprise to take on. Even less so with our electorally challenged government who cannot guarantee a private investor that coal fired stations will be “legal” in Shorten’s Australia.

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    cedarhill

    The true mysteries of the Universe are how warmist politicians continue to be re-elected amid the carnage of the fraud of CO2 pollution.

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    • #
      el gordo

      Its probably because half the electorate accept the AGW theory, they have been brainwashed through the education system and MSM.

      I’m tempted to form my own party and run for office on a single issue.

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      • #
        Albert

        Labor/Greens brainwashed the population from grade 1 to University and true science has been ignored

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      • #
        joseph

        Got a name for it yet?

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      • #
        Greg Cavanagh

        “I’m tempted to form my own party and run for office on a single issue.”
        Free coffee. You’ll be swamped in votes.

        And now to your first point. I have a long time friend who, while not exactly green, does believe just about everything they say. I’ve talked with him, sent links to web sites, provided pdfs, and explained the failures of logic behind the green movement and their ideas. I haven’t made the slightest dent in his beliefs.

        So, I don’t think education or indoctrination explains everything. I think its the idea behind it which is so attractive. Even if it’s flawed or impossible; it sounds like it should be right and they adopt those ideas simply because seem as though they should be right.

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        • #
          el gordo

          Mass delusion is widespread and future sociologists will wonder how this came about.

          Everyone of my acquaintance is brainwashed and I’m convinced, as a matter of urgency, we need to first unscramble the young through humour.
          Once that process has begun they will ridicule the fatuous authorities and even their own ignorant family. Collateral damage is to be expected.

          Waiting for the ABC, SBS, Fairfax and Guardian to tell the truth is probably a lost cause.

          ‘I think its the idea behind it which is so attractive.’

          Saving the planet for our grandchildren is cleaver propaganda, it tugs at the heartstrings, especially among women, but what they can’t see is that they have created a generation of Nihilists.
          Its a disgrace.

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  • #
    John Edwards

    Hazelwood power station, which supplies about 25% of Victoria’s baseload power, is due to close next month.

    I have a Honda gennie ready and waiting.

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    Robert Rosicka

    Would not put it past lil Bill to make fossil fuel power generation illegal but think he would need the greens to get the numbers .
    My only wish is that one nation starts to now make the right noise about the folly of renewable power , and clearly signals her party’s intent on the issue .
    We as Australians have a vote and a choice , just as the South Australians did last election , a vote for labor or green will determine your power security for years to come , not that sure the Libs are that much better .
    It’s not only your electricity reliability at stake it’s your ability to afford it .

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      OriginalSteve

      See my previous comment…the day is coming when pollies will finally get it after someone actually gets physically hurt because peoples frustration finally boils over. I am not advocating violence of any form, but I do know history, and when people cant get a message across any other way, things will get violent.

      I suspect too once the people have finished with the pollies, they will then go looking for the hidden men behind the throne….

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      • #
        Yonniestone

        Yes its not just the hut wallet that wakes people up but their loved ones in harms way, its also the realisation that when those that are sworn to stand ready at night are visiting violence on those that do no harm, only then will people snap out of the socially engineered trance and quickly rediscover their primal instincts that still preserves our morals regardless of regressive social tactics.

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  • #
    Paul Callander

    John Watt seems to have called the situation backwards. The power generation technology is now wholly based on the public – read government – influence. The only reason the private power generation companies won’t build coal or even gas fired base load stations is government. His last sentence is the reason – it is not the long construction times (they aren’t really) but the government mandated uncertainty of being able to operate efficiently over their lives.

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    Deano

    But Jo, South Australia cut power to 90,000 homes and a few days later on February the 9th in Perth we had the coldest Feb day on record. Proof that cutting carbon cools the earth! This global warming science is easy when you know where to look for the data nuggets.

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  • #
    ROM

    A great deal of Australia’s energy future is riding on South Australia’s State elections on the 18th March 2018.

    If SA has another or worse, a few more even minor blackouts or load shedding episodes and the SA Labour gets wiped out in the election as a consequence along with the assistance of the current electoral boundaries redrawing then all bets are off regarding the further imposition of renewable energy ie; wind turbines and solar in the other states.

    And I would suggest that unless a couple of premiers definitely decide that fighting global warming after all isn’t as important as providing a guaranteed power supply at an affordable price to the voters, they also could be contemplating another career at the behest of their fellow party politicians well before any further state elections.

    I would also lay money that there are some state and now federal politicians who are getting very nervous and paranoid indeed about the now obvious major renewable energy flaws and the accompanying public debacles and its total uselessness and fundamental inability in providing totally reliable power to a developed society, one that they as politicians are supposed to be running and whom the public holds accountable for any major stuff ups that further severely damage the public’s very limited faith and trust in the aforesaid politicians.

    The realisation that when too much emphasis and public money are being splurged on flogging the renewable energy dead horse and the public are being economically raped for what the public has begun to see as little more than large scale hypocritical political virtue signalling, extraordinarily enough, those politicians will even be able to point to the fact that building highly efficient, low fuel burn, dramatically reduced emissions Ultra Critical HELE power generators will lower the CO2 emissions and prevent climate change [ Sigh! I had to include that ! ] even more than just putting up wind turbines and solar panels.

    Never ever under estimate a politician’s ability to slither under a snake’s belly with his / her umbrella up and emerge apparently all clean and shiny and untouched on the other side.

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    • #
      peter

      ROM in ref. to your 2nd last paragraph:-

      That was a 102 word, one sentence paragraph? Unforgivable? Your 3rd paragraph started with “And”? Who was your English teacher at school? I want to slap their face. Disgraceful grammar displayed in your post.

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    bobl

    SA has 40% renewables and still has heatwaves, maybe the Weatherdill should explain why his renewable strategy has failed to rid the state of heatwaves?

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    Gene Walker

    Oh my, nuclear energy could be a wonderful idea. I suspect Australia’s wise supreme green leaders will find an eco-friendly way of integrating it with “green” energy.
    Perhaps they will use nuclear energy to power giant lights that shine on solar panels at night and cloudy days, and also power giant fans to blow across those windmills during those bothersome times on windless days.
    What an amazing modern world we live in!

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    • #
      Oswald Thake

      Don’t give them more daft ideas, Gene!

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      • #
        ROM

        The Spaniards caught onto that flood light on solar panels at least a decade ago.

        Buy power at the low industrial prices for the floodlights.
        Come sundown, point floodlights at solar panels and bingo! 24 hour solar power.
        Sell the solar panel power output at the highly subsidised renewable energy prices.
        Pocket the highly lucrative difference.

        Oh! And don’t forget the more cunning solar operators who thought the floodlights going all night were a bit too obvious so the alternative was that big diesel driven generator way down the back in that sound proofed shed that chugged away all night thus providing expensive solar power right through the nights.

        It got the Spanish government over 30 billion euros behind their estimates of the subsidies required for renewable energy so they pulled the plug on most of their subsidies a couple of years ago leading to bankruptcies everywhere in the Spanish renewable energy industry .
        Which led to a few dozen or so international court cases where the big foreign renewable investing / scamming outfits tried to sue the Spanish for the profits they would have got from the subsidies before the Spanish government pulled the pin on most of those subsidies..

        I think the EU courts told the renewable scammers suing the Spanish to p**s off based on a UK court case where some renewable scamming outfit sued the British government for loss of its subsidies when the rules were changed and the court ruled that they were “subsidies, provided at the pleasure of the government of the day and were therefore not guaranteed as income nor was the government to be held responsible for continuing to pay those subsidies as the circumstances under which it governs is changing all the time and the government then also has to change its policies and economics to suit and adapt.

        In short the Court made damn sure that they didn’t set a precedent that could lock a government into some subsidy or financial set up permanently and forever.

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    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      I think they should build de-siltation plants (like desalination plants) along the great barrier reef to keep the water pure and crystal clear. They could chill the water too so the corral doesn’t bleach.

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  • #
    PhilJourdan

    The “free market” will be blamed, but the answer is not more regulation, but less. The energy market is not a free market

    Government creates problems and then passes more laws to correct their problems. A glaring example is HMMOs and PPOs – vilified by the left in this country, but created by the government! Power is the same way.

    The quote is very accurate as Power is NOT free market. At least in this country, it is a regulated monopoly – which means the government gives it a monopoly and extra attention. In this country, you cannot go out and start your own power company. If you produce power, you MUST sell the excess to the monopoly. You cannot sell it to your neighbors. Some areas made a half hearted attempt to create a free market, but what killed the attempt was once again, government regulations.

    But the left only sees it as a “free market”. That is due to their bias that everything bad is due to the free market, while any good comes from government. A completely bassackwards view that only a leftist could understand.

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  • #
    Sceptical Sam

    SA Liberals are talking about maybe, possibly, could be, the nuclear option.

    And the SA anarcho-socialist Labor Party are talking about the State nationalizing South Australia’s electricity industry.

    You can bank on that working. Which bank?

    The taxpayer bank.

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  • #
    TdeF

    No Nuclear. The Greens are against it. No coal, the Greens are against it. No gas, the greens are against it. No diesel, the greens are against it. No dams, the greens are against it. No mining, the Greens are against it. No fracking, the Greens are against it. No nuclear disposal, the Greens are against it.

    So the people dictating policy in Australia are the Greens, the party with one seat out of 200 in the democratic one man one vote House of Representatives. What happened to democracy? The Greens are against it.

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    • #
      turnedounice

      The Greens have inherited stupidity, as have their voters.

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    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      Add to that list, no human living a quality of life up to limit of his capability. The Greens are against it.

      It is not stupidity at work. It is a willful and malignant nihilism: the negation of everything worth striving for and having including a life consistent with being a human.

      The Greens are against ANYTHING that is the product of a human mind. We are to be the only creature in the universe who have no right to exist, to be what we are, and to live accordingly. That is except for the wannabe masters of the universe: The Greens.

      The Greens are for the policies they advocate exactly because they don’t work for living humans.

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    • #
      Rod Stuart

      Did you happen to hear the the rants of Adam the Bandit and McKim yesterday?
      I find it difficult to understand why these people are allowed to travel into the ACT, much less Parliament.
      On the other hand, the more they expound on their Communist ideology the sooner we will see the last of them.

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      • #
        TdeF

        The Green politicians are communists and wish us no good at all.

        Adam Bandt’s PhD thesis was on communism. He does not mention that and Senator Lee Rhiannon denied her communist activism for most of her life, when she attended the Lomonosov university in Moscow and had an ASIO file at the age of 7.

        When I asked Adam directly whether he believe the communist views he had just espoused to a small group, he said to me “we tell people what they want to hear and when we get power, we do what we like”. Very much a Lenin/Stalin believer. Create a disaster and seize power in the chaos. These people are not acting in the interests of a better Australia, as you can see in every state. Global Warming is not happening and Climate Change is nonsensical. Where is it changing?

        Even as Turnbull replied, the people who would undermine our security are the Greens. You can add energy security and economic security to that, two things they are hell bent on destroying. The Green politicians want a meltdown, a revolution and to seize control in the time honored communist way.

        The farce is that communists hate the new Russia from the last 25 years, a Russia which is trying desperately to be democratic, capitalist and part of Europe, betraying his ideals. We need to engage with this new superpower Russia where he openly courts war even in our parliament, now hating both the US and Russia. Who then, communist China as our ally?

        Green politicians are the problem, the ones virulently against democracy. Worse, both Labor and Liberals are copying destructive Green policies against the explicit wishes of the bulk of Australians.

        How many Victorians want Hazelwood closed? Perhaps a Newspoll or a Herald Sun poll? Make it an issue. Do we have to wait for blackouts in four states for someone in parliament to realise the trainwreck we will become in two months? Get rid of the RET! Renewable Energy Carbon Tax.

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  • #
    CheshireRed

    IMO a failure to deliver sufficient quantities of reliable electricity to supply the legitimate demands of a developed nation amounts to malfeasance in public office. It ought to be a criminal offence with a punishment of immediate removal from office.

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    • #
      Leo Morgan

      Sorry CheshireRed, I utterly disapprove of your Soviet Style solution to energy supply.
      There’s various versions of the tale, but the story goes that a Senior Soviet Official visited France, in the West for the first time, and was astounded at the vast supply of bread available in numerous stores with no queuing. In amazement he asked “Who is in charge of bread supply for Paris?”
      At the time the story was told, the point was clear. A managed system if inherently inferior to a free system. There is no-one in charge of the bread supply in Paris, and the system worked vastly better than the government managed soviet system. The official’s query was ridiculous, and the teller and the listener all understood that point.
      Government interference with the system that disrupts the supply should of course be punished; but at the ballot box not the jury box. Of course we need an educated electorate to do that, particularly when each of the Government’s interferences is cast as being ‘for our benefit.’

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      KinkyKeith

      Well said CheshireRed.

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  • #
    Gerry, England

    We have the same ‘free market’ in energy in the UK which luckily is slightly more resilient than SA….at the moment. But be assured, our idiots are working to ensure that we don’t miss out on the fun by removing reliable generation. And when prices rise because of all the government interference people blame the greedy power companies and ‘privatisation’. The MPs don’t understand the implication and impact of their policies. The UK is about to sleepwalk into economic disaster simply because Brexit is showing some of us that they have absolutely no idea how the UK works. But then being knowledgeable and intelligent is a great impediment to being an MP, and sadly most of the electorate are no better so we end up with these idiots in charge.

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  • #
    Leo Morgan

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/09/nsw-power-shortage-warning-after-revelation-sa-blackouts-forecast-hours-beforehand
    Jo’s comment was spot on. The ‘Free market’ is indeed being blamed, this time for today’s looming NSW blackout. I’m not sure whether that counts as prediction of observation, but in either case it definitely counts as correct.

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    • #
      Leo Morgan

      TYPO: “…prediction OR observation…” of course.

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    • #
      Analitik

      At least the AEMO can reliably forecast shortfall in NSW today and the possibility for tomorrow. With South Australia, the wind COULD have sprung up and prevented their shortfall but WIND IS NOT RELIABLE for electricity supply.

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  • #
    thingodonta

    SA is a look into the future of socialist energy policies.

    Despite heaps of solar energy, heaps of wind, the world’s largest reserves of nuclear energy, lots of gas, potentially lots of oil shale, large reserves of copper, yet it can’t supply reliable amounts of energy.

    A related example in SA illustrates the deepness of the problem.

    A company recently discovered one of Australia’s largest undeveloped copper resources (Hillside) in sparsely populated farmland in SA southeast. After submitting a mine plan, the company was told it could only develop a small fraction of the available resources so as to not adversely affect the surrounding, sparse farmland. The mine plan takes up less than 0.01% of available farmland in the area, and the area has a history of copper mining going back to the 1800s.

    What the government is essentially saying is the company cannot make a profit, due to socialist principles. The mine plan forced by the government is uneconomic, as mines generally require economy of scale to become profitable. Most of the farmers in the area would actually benefit from the mine, through positive effects on local business and employment. A similar example of a large gold mine proposal in NSW in the 1990s which the greens tried to stop led to a march led by the nearby town in strong support of the mine, since the local town knew how much it would benefit from it. The mine has been operating profitably for over 10 years (Cowal), bringing in large benefits to West Wyalong, taking up about the same 0.01% of available farmland, and there was no such requirement to scale-down to suit completely unnecessary and unrealistic socialist agendas.

    The green-led policies in SA government also led to the withdrawal of a recent proposal to even just survey for oil off the SA coast.

    Because most of SA is sparsely populated and highly urbanised, there is a lack of democratic representation from people who know the land. Most are urban greens, who have no knowledge or interest in such things, and of course they are often found in government-related positions.

    If they can’t even allow of understand the basics of mining, then there is little hope they will understand things like energy demand or policy.

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  • #

    … as they sow, so shall they reap, or, in the words of the immortal Forrest Gump, stupid is as stupid does …

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  • #
    john

    OT a bit but it all is about subsidies.

    Tayport solar farm connection delay threat to subsidy

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/fife/362568/tayport-solar-far

    A solar farm near Tayport could lose government subsidy after councillors delayed giving the green light for its connection to the grid, it has been claimed.

    Around 5,000 panels are to be installed west of Kirkton Barns Farm but developer Sel PV 03 warned that unless the go-ahead was given on Wednesday to lay an underground cable connecting the site to a substation at Pickletillum it would lose the subsidy.

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  • #
    Oliver K. Manuel

    A creeping Soviet-style takeover of energy markets and the destruction of integrity in government science when nations and national academies of sciences were united under the UN on 24 OCT 1945 to “save the world” from possible nuclear annihilation by

    1. Inserting Dr. Carl von Weizsacker’s illogical definition of nuclear binding energy into physics textbooks worldwide,

    2. To hide neutron repulsion – the source of energy in atomic bombs that also powers the cosmos

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    • #
      Oliver K. Manuel

      The tiny little error in Dr. Carl von Weizesacker’s 1935 logic – at the root of so many post-WWII, lock-step Standard Models of astronomy, astrophysics, climatology, cosmology, geology, etc., – was recognized by a 19-year old student at the Imperial University of Tokyo on 13 June 1936.

      That student completed his studies and became one of the youngest faculty members there before being selected, nine years later, to determine why Hiroshima was destroyed on 6 Aug 1945.

      Kuroda devoted the rest of his life to protect the integrity of nuclear geo-, cosmo-chronology (age dating of the Earth and the Solar System) from Weizsacker’s error, inserted without question into textbooks of nuclear physics worldwide when nations were united under the UN on 24 Oct 1945.

      https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/TRIBUTE_TO_KURODA.pdf

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  • #
    Gordon

    Here is a link to some interesting info. I like the map of the wind turbine area. Not sure if this has been posted here before.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/05/australian-electrical-system-operator-orders-wind-farms-to-cut-back-production-in-wake-of-blackout/

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  • #
    Another Ian

    “Blunder down under;”

    Check the map!

    And in comments


    doowleb | February 9, 2017 3:02 PM | Reply

    What did leftist’s use before candles?

    Electricity.”

    From http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/02/we-dont-need-no-609.html

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    • #
      Mark M

      SA Liberal frontbencher Simon Birmingham said it was “yet another example that the South Australian Government can’t keep the lights on“.

      Wait. What?

      Are these the same eco-light-globes Malcolm Turnbull mandated everyone to use to stop extreme heat-waves caused by 97% Doomsday Global Warming?

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  • #
    el gordo

    ‘AEMO on Friday morning also issued alerts that Queensland may need additional power supply between 4.30-5pm, local time, which suggests that state may not be in a position to assist NSW in a pinch.

    ‘The operator also signalled a potential supply shortfall for Saturday afternoon in NSW between 5pm and 5.30pm, local time, and called for “a market response”. The minimum reserve available is 696 megawatts, below the trigger for calls of more supply of 700 MW.’

    SMH

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  • #
    Robber

    Early on Friday morning, in SA, Snowtown Wind Farm Stage 2 North is producing just 3% of its 144 MW capacity while Lake Bonney Stage 2 Windfarm is producing 17% of its 159MW capacity.

    Fortunately the old uneconomic soon to be shutdown Hazelwood coal station in Victoria (thanks to Premier Andrews) is delivering 94% of its 200MW capacity to help keep the lights on in SA. While alongside it, Loy Yang B Power Station is delivering 107% of its 500MW capacity. Source: http://anero.id/energy/

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    • #
      Analitik

      Um, Hazelwood is 8 x 200 MW and Loy Yang B is 2 x 525 MW, hence the multiple stations listed on the Aneroid site.

      But everything else is absolutely spot on

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      • #
        Robber

        Then it’s worse than I thought. Victoria’s current demand is about 6000MW plus supply on occasion to SA and Tas – how can the government possibly allow the shutdown of 1600MW from Hazelwood? And now NSW is close to breaking point.
        What’s left?
        Loy Yang A 2200MW
        Loy Yang B 1000MW
        Yallourn 1500MW
        Newport 500MW (gas)
        Various distributed gas turbines 1800MW
        Hydro 500MW.

        40

        • #
          KinkyKeith

          Robber,

          It’s not that politicians can’t count, it’s that they know that counting is unnecessary when you can, “snow”, confuse and shift blame so that nobody can see the problem, let alone create a solution.

          KK

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  • #
    Analitik

    At least the AEMO can reliably forecast shortfall in NSW today and the possibility for Queensland and NSW tomorrow. Business and institutions can be warned so contingencies can be made.

    With South Australia, the wind COULD have sprung up and prevented their shortfall but WIND IS NOT RELIABLE for electricity supply so a solid forecast (as opposed to our predictions) could not be made.

    40

  • #
    Mark M

    In Australia, nine coal plants have closed in seven years, with no policy to replace them, and, Victoria’s Hazelwood plant will follow next month, making ten.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/warning-of-future-blackouts-as-politics-overtakes-energy-and-climate-debate-20170209-gu9jgo.html

    There are concerns New South Wales could be hit with blackouts from this afternoon due to record high energy demand as the state grapples with heatwave conditions over the next three days.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-09/nsw-weather-possible-power-shortages/8257112

    Meanwhile, ‘green’ German court issues permit for Uniper’s Datteln 4 coal-fired power plant.

    http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFFWN1F90FK

    20

  • #
    Dennis

    After watching the actors on television news stations last night pushing a heatwave scare I am convinced that news is now more about advertisements presented as news than it is about real news.

    81

    • #
      Cementafriend

      Actors is about right mouthing the rubbish from BOM. It was predicted that yesterday would be hot over 35C but it rained all day snd the msx. Temp was about 27C. I knew it would raln, lots of ants coming in the hoise and on the verandah. Even had a tree snake come on the 2nd storey verandah to get out of the rsin. Todsy is slso supposef to be hot but overcast with threat of rain. BOM needs to look out of the window and look what the wildlife is doing particularly black cockatoos, ants, and snakes.

      51

  • #
    John Michelmore

    So we have the Labor Energy Minister here in SA lying that there were 4 years of coal available to keep Port Augusta running, when recoverable reserves published by the State Government of 30 years supply for Port Augusta. Then we have the Libs opposition leader saying Nuclear power is an option but not low grade waste storage underground. My view is you cannot run economies based on the feelings of the voters at a point in time, it is bad management and exactly what is crucifying Australia at this time. None of the major parties have the management skills to run government for Australians, the sooner the voters wake up to this the better for us all.
    It is no longer going to matter whom you vote for next election, the disaster is here and none of these are politicians are capable of fixing it, all they are worried about is the next election, so expect things to get much worse!

    110

  • #
    John Michelmore

    Also I cannot believe that politicians still talk about low carbon futures and a price on carbon, the BS just doesn’t wash anymore. Do politicians live in completely insulated bubbles, can’t they see the high efficiency coal fired plant proposed elsewhere, do they know that Donald Trump was elected.
    I’ve heard of a good suggestion, the US are decommissioning a Nuclear aircraft carrier, bring it to SA and connect an extension cord to it at Port Augusta!!

    50

    • #
      PhilJourdan

      The Big E. Sadly, it was pulled out of service 5 years ago, so the reactors could be shut down and the fuel removed, and once that is done, it can be “decommissioned”. So it no longer has the capacity to generate electricity.

      This is also the first time in over a century that the US does not have a commissioned ship named Enterprise. Guess we will have to 2167 before we get a new one. ;-)

      00

  • #
    • #
      David Maddison

      I have an excellent idea. Get rid of expensive and unreliable windmills, which industrial society first did about 200 years ago and replace with cheap and reliable gas, coal or nuclear generation.

      91

    • #
      PeterS

      Will they also subsidise electric cars and motorbikes? This is socialism so why not go the whole way? We might as well enjoy ourselves for a little while as we go bankrupt as a nation and the IMF or China steps in to take over.

      20

  • #
    Wally

    SA Labor are a joke. Unfortunately the Liberal opposition are a joke as well. Half of them have been in parliament for 25+ years, half the libs hate the guts of the other half in a spat going back 50 years, and the opposition leader is a failed businessman who inherited a family company, could not run it , and closed it.

    Talk about being in a bind, we have dumb on one side and dumber on the other. It’s a judgement call as to which of the two sides is “dumb” and which is “dumber”.

    When choosing between 2 idiots what do you do?

    30

  • #
    David Maddison

    Just heard the VIC energy minister say that VIC won’t have SA style power outages when Hazelwood is shut down because grid scale battery storage will solve the intermittency problem. I was surprised she knew that word.

    71

    • #
      Annie

      Yeah…ok. Why am I feeling cynical?

      60

    • #
      gnome

      I heard that too – I nearly fell off the floor. It’s a pity she didn’t tell us about this great breakthrough in greater detail because it will be a great earner for the country when we export her technology.

      80

    • #
      Konrad

      “because grid scale battery storage will solve the intermittency problem”
      Is the Victorian energy minister truly this vacuous? Australia is doomed …

      40

    • #
      bobl

      Right up until a few oxygen molecules find their way to the lithium and Victoria’s newly unionized firies have to deal with the hottest explosion and fire they have ever seen, one where the fuel reacts with water and explodes!

      The only really practical way to store energy at grid scale is Pumped hydro and the efficiency of that process isn’t much more than 60% (Not counting evaporation in storage). So you are throwing away 40% of your generation doing it.

      00

  • #
    PeterS

    As we all know a major coal fired power station is about to close down in Victoria. Yet India is building coal fired power stations that are in total will soon provide around 30 times additional capacity for them when compared to what Hazelwood provides, according to their official report. Then there is China, Japan and others. We must be the laughing stock of the world by now. We are also heading for a complete collapse in our economy in 15 or so years if we continue the road we are heading thanks to Labor, Greens and LNP. This is no joke.

    80

  • #
    William

    Well, I am doing my bit.
    I have purchased and installed my diesel generator, complete with a 250 gallon fuel tank.
    Also, I have installed my wood burning stove. My wood stockpile is around five years’ worth, and growing.
    Now all I have to do is set up the mine fields to keep out the greenies who will try to get inside my warm, well lit, house when the country joins North Korea in freezing in the dark.
    I hope that they all get what they want. Good and hard.

    71

    • #
      PeterS

      I follow you – it’s not funny as it’s deadly serious now. I say we have just a few years to reverse the direction we are currently taking before the whole nation begins to collapse. It won’t happen overnight and it’s not a world war that will threaten us – it is ourselves and the voting public who by and large are either too stupid or ignorant as to what is happening around them. The appear to be more interested in deciding what new house, car or mobile phone they want to buy. Imagine the shock they will get when they realize they won’t have a job to pay for them after the lights go out.

      40

      • #
        crakar24

        A few years?

        Ok lets run the numbers.

        SA has about 2.5GW of gas thats all of it right down to the dingy 20Mw GT’s sitting in a shed somewhere, we have 0 to 1.6GW of wind and some roof top PV and a defacto 800MW coal plant.

        During the load shed we were at max capacity minus 200-300 MW from gas which never bid so could not be used and the lights went out with 800MW of defacto coal.

        If you re ran that scenario without the 800MW then half the state would be load shed so for SA its “in a few months”.

        For Vic they will lose 2.5GW or 25% of their generation where in the hell are they going to get that kind of power from? Perhaps they think NSW or TAS?

        As i type TAS is giving Vic 400 odd MW, Vic is giving SA 500MW and NSW is 1 GW in the red.

        So take out Hazelwood and the whole house of cards will collapse, my God what have they done.

        100

        • #
          PeterS

          Not sure if all this will lead to a major national disaster coming sooner that I thought but if it does then we only have ourselves to blame for it all and not the government nor the opposition. Voters have the power to vote in whoever they prefer, and up to now they preferred to follow the crazy and insane road economic collapse by way of too high a reliance on renewables. We have two or so years till the next federal election. Who knows what will happen by then. So far it appears it’s a race as to who can destroy our nation the fastest. I expect a lot to change by then, partly due to the Trump effect.

          30

          • #
            crakar24

            Peter,

            I meant SA will go down quite quickly, the AEMO will cut us loose to save the eastern sea board and not for the first time. However Hazelwwod closing will be the beginning of the end for the east states, SA is at the end now.

            cheers

            60

            • #
              Analitik

              Damned right, crakar24. Your numbers are correct and the implications are obvious to anyone who can do the math.

              My only hope is that South Australia’s deterioration forces the Federal government to act and the whole scam gets shut down (good luck getting the Marxist state governments to face reality). Hazelwood would be funded to stay online and Northern brought back online while urgent action is taken on proper, reliable, dependable replacements which given the age of these plants (and Loy Yang A and Yallourn) mean BROWN COAL

              I know you lot are suffering in South Australia but I see the only course for recovery is for you to suffer some more in the short term rather than Vic also being brought to the precipice and South Australia tossed right down the hole.

              40

    • #
      John Michelmore

      Just another thing to worry about William, how long will your diesel supply last. Last I looked our diesel fuel reserves in Australia is enough for 13 days use, then everything shuts down!!! Just imagine that shipping is disrupted, all trucks stop running in 13 days. Welcome to good government for Australians!!

      30

  • #
    David Maddison

    Q: What did South Australians use before candles?

    A: Electricity.

    110

  • #
    Rick Will

    SA is the only State with enough IG capacity to have network instability at any time of the year. The other States have not yet reached that level. The energy shortfalls in other states are still foreseeable.

    With present technology, once the installed capacity of IGs reaches around 80% of the local grid demand then grid instability becomes a problem. This issue is already being experienced on a small scale in new suburban developments where there is high take up of rooftop solar.

    It is a distinction between dispatchable generation and intermittent generation that is not being priced correctly. A generator that can guarantee supply at 4am after four days of drizzle on June 22nd is worth many times more than a generator who cannot. When IGs are a tiny fraction of the grid capacity, the grid can be taken as a sink. The NEM grid is constantly in balance; power in equals power out plus transmission losses every second of every day. Once IGs reach a significant portion of the grid demand they can cause huge voltage and frequency swings that cannot be controlled by a few connected DGs – or in SA case a skinny link to Victoria.

    For a solar IG to meet the June 22nd criteria they need to have installed capacity roughly 8 to 10 times their rated capacity and a storage system able to store approximately 2 days of rated output as well as being able to deliver guaranteed output at 4am on June 22nd.

    00

  • #

    Turn ‘em on, run ‘em full, okay!

    How anyone would just love to be able to say that to the wind plants, eh!

    NSW, beaten up in the media that power blackouts are coming their way.

    Right now, 10.30AM Friday 10Feb 2017, this is the state of coal fired power in NSW

    Bayswater, all four units running, delivering 2620MW. Opened 1986, so 31 years old.

    Vales Point, all two units running, delivering 1100MW. Opened 1978, so 39 years old.

    Mount Piper, all two units running, delivering 1260MW. Opened 1993, so 23 years old.

    Eraring, all four units running, delivering 1970MW. Opened 1982, so 35 years old.

    Liddell, two of four units running, delivering 840MW. Opened 1973, so 44 years old.

    Coal fired power in NSW currently delivering 7790MW.

    That is currently 9.3 times the power delivery for EVERY wind plant in Australia, from just those five power plants, with 14 units.

    Even 44 year old Liddell, now long in the tooth, and only used as rolling reserve mainly is still dleivering, from just TWO of its four units the same power as every one of those wind plants.

    Turn ‘em on, and run ‘em full, okay.

    Can’t do that with wind power.

    LIKE for LIKE.

    Tony.

    160

    • #
      John Michelmore

      And Malcolm Turnball ratified the Paris Agreement as soon as he heard that Trump had won. Whose going to vote LNP, Labor or Green? Please publish your names below>

      130

      • #
        PeterS

        I will not be voting for any of the major parties. They have lost all credibility. The problem is not really them though. It’s the voters who will keep voting for them. Such voters are innocently clueless or just plain stupid. Eitehr way that spells disaster for this nation for the near future.

        70

      • #
        KinkyKeith

        Declaration.

        I have only ever voted for a major parti twice.

        The first was to remove Bill Morrison and the second was in the last state election that put Tim Owen into Newcastle.

        The first was rewarding, the second was a waste of my vote.

        Otherwise I have always voted independent.

        Both the major parties are led by “leaders” who do not deserve that title.

        The current political climate is so fully entrenched with the grabbers and troughers on both sides that the only remedy is total demolition.

        This is what Trump was elected to do and he’s doing it.

        The same needs to happen here.

        But where is our Trump? Too well hidden.

        KK

        30

      • #
        AndyG55

        “Please publish your names below”

        I’m not me.. so I can’t. ;-)

        Unfortunately, I’m in Newcastle, which seems to be one of the latte-green-loonie cities of NSW.

        20

  • #
    David Maddison

    The new front line of our fight against the expensive unreliables will be hugely expensive grid scale or compulsory domestic battery storage.

    I am willing to bet that Finkel will recommend this as the outcome of his inquiry. He is a warmist and battery true believer and there is nowhere else he can go as there is no way he will recommend abandoning economy-destroying unreliables.

    20

    • #
      crakar24

      Find out which storage company he is a board member and buy as many stocks as you can and ride that subsidy gravy train for as long as you can.

      40

  • #
    ROM

    You have to laugh sometimes!

    Brussells the political and bureaucratic capital of the renewable promoting EU has just been blacked out just before midnight over there and nobody knows why.

    ‘Security alert in Brussels’ after massive blackout plunges entire centre of EU capital into darkness

    The loss of electricity across the Belgian capital has sparked terror attack fears, although the cause of the outage has not been confirmed.

    UPDATED 23:42, 9 FEB 2017

    30

    • #

      ROM,

      It was an explosion in a substation that caused the blackout, which was mainly at the eastside of Brussels, including the main airport, and interesting, the NATO headquarters environment. The airport of course has its own backup (and I suppose NATO too), but as these were in the area, the security alarm level was implemented. Until now it seems to be a mechanical induced incident, but you never know what smart people can invent in sabotaging which looks like a simple defect…

      10

  • #
    Egor the One

    SA government needs the sack for incompetence along with Despot Dan from Victoria.

    All this global warming garbage needs to be put to the sword !

    How can they (SA) claim 40% renewables with an extension lead next door, and even then they still fail?

    why are so many led around by the nose by so few(raving ratbags) ?

    50

    • #
      PeterS

      Under normal circumstances such action as performed by the SA government would lead to people responsible being put behind bars. As we know these are not normal circumstances thanks to the high degree of gullibility of the public fueled by the propaganda endlessly being pushed out by the MSM, both major parties, our public teaching institutions and climate scientists.

      20

    • #
      Greebo

      It bodes ill for Victoria. I have a daughter doing her Masters in Psychology. I have a daughter in law who is a microbiologist, fresh from an Antarctic trip run by the Swiss. Both these women believe that renewables are a good thing, the more the better. They are unable to articulate why, except that burning less coal must be a good thing, surely. My point is, these are ‘educated’ people. And they will vote Green. Doesn’t matter what I say. They won’t read blogs like this one or Watts Up With That. Too right wing apparently. Too factual.

      Now, think of Victoria’s base. Mostly in manufacturing or construction. Union dominated. Or, poor, exploited folk with little education of any kind, and what they get is indoctrination and ‘kill Trump’ style sloganism, with Dan Ward and Roz Andrews filling their heads with gender neutral Safe School garbage, and an Opposition who even I cannot name.

      Andrews is here until this State is destroyed, because there aren’t any voters here switched on enough to care.

      Light at end of tunnel: once Hazelwood closes, there won’t be enough energy to supply SA and the bloody DeSal plant. People think SA needs a nuke. I reckon a small one on Spring Street would be of more use. ( Just kidding….)

      20

  • #
    David Maddison

    BRACE YOURSELVES IN CRASH POSITION PEOPLE!

    It”s going to be big batteries, like it or not.

    http://www.afr.com/news/future-grid-has-batteries-renewables-and-software–finkel-20170208-gu8j12

    00

    • #
      David Maddison

      Incidentally, I read somewhere that if the entire world backed up its unreliable generators with batteries there would not be enough raw materials in the world to build the battery packs.

      50

      • #
        PeterS

        Which is one reason why China has been interested in extraterrestrial mining. Of course that won’t be happening for a long time, if ever.

        10

      • #
        Willard

        No, you’re mistaken, plenty of resources, in fact Australia is well placed to supply the Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel, Copper and other materials.

        10

    • #
      PeterS

      I thought the mining and processing of the ingredients to produce the batteries is far more polluting to the environment than coal mining and their use in power stations. I could be wrong in this.

      80

      • #
        Greebo

        No, you are not. A brief study of the lifecycle of a Prius battery pack is quite illuminating. Elon Musk didn’t get into batteries for any environmental reasons either. Follow the money.

        10

        • #
          Willard

          Mr Musk follows the Lithium-Ion format, most Prius battery packs are Nickel metal hybrid, older tech but a proven reliable pack for the millions of Prius vehicles on the world’s roads, although Greebo I’m keen to see your brief study of the Prius battery pack , do you think Toyota of Japan get their batteries from some dodgy factory next a river in China?

          00

    • #
      AndrewWA

      Finkel another true acolyte of Climate Scientology.

      10

    • #
      Annie

      That article is paywalled, unfortunately.

      00

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    A squirrel cage connected to your car generator with even a half dead squirrel to run it would do better than that. Hmm! That might be a good business opportunity, Roy. Maybe you should see about getting a business loan in Oz. They still do that, don’t they, business loans?

    20

    • #
      Greebo

      I’d try Goldman Sachs.

      00

    • #
      PhilJourdan

      I will contribute to your new enterprise. You are welcome to all the squirrels in my yard. :-)

      10

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Phil,

        I appreciate the offer but I have more than an adequate supply in my own yard. They love the fruit that grows in the yards of several of my neighbors, the nut inside seems irresistible. I see tham constantly going back and forth using the walls that separate the properties on my street from the properties behind us. And if they don’t use the walls they use all the telephone and TV cable lines that run along the line of polls serving my house and the house behind me, etc. It’s quite a high wire act.

        But I’ve been puzzled by one thing. During the rain a particular fungus grows in the back yard where we once had a tree, no doubt feeding off the decaying root system left behind. The squirrels come down and break off chunks of that fungus and pop them right into their mouths without hesitation. I don’t know what that fungus is but I wouldn’t try to eat it for anything. It’s not the classical mushroom shaped thing but grows up in big rectangular pieces up to about an inch above the grass. I’ve never seen it before a couple of years ago and there isn’t any of it so far this year. But either it’s less harmful than I think or these little guys who eat it are tougher than I think.

        I’ll ask them to enlist if I get going in the generating business. They should be willing to work for a fungus or two every day. After all, everyone likes a free lunch. ;-)

        10

    • #
      Annie

      You would have been welcome to all the imported grey squirrels that used to vandalise our trees in Gloucestershire! Here in Aus I wonder if the plague of possums might do the job?! That’s definitely not PC.

      00

  • #
    ROM

    We already have our battery.

    And it is large enough to power the whole planet for many, many decades and possibly centuries into the future without any further inputs or advances in technology by mankind.

    That battery has accumulated perhaps as much as a couple of hundred million years of solar energy in a very easily used form that has no verifiable losses of its high solar energy content during its very lengthy storage periods.

    That battery requires no maintenance, no specially configured technology to maintain its storage characteristics, it maintains its entire energy content throughout its very, very lengthy storage periods and requires little more than to dig it up and burn it using common and very well known and proven technology to release all that couple of hundred millions of years accumulation of solar energy for mankind’s use at his leisure.

    The brand name of that battery is COAL !

    So why, one should ask, is Finkel advocating that we re-invent a whole extremely complex, horrendously expensive energy storage system all over again when Nature has done it for us over a period of millions of years and done it in a way that is so useful and is of such a bounty, not just to a few tens of millions of our species but to the whole human race.

    Finkel is obviously completely blinded to real world realities by his own cleverness and hubris and completely lacking of any ability to see outside of his own extremely narrow minded academic bubble to ascertain what the real natural world out there has that can and should [ continue ] to be used for all of mankind’s ultimate benefit.

    121

    • #
      PeterS

      Agree! Goes to show the world has definitely gone mad.

      40

    • #

      Cost of a two unit HELE USC coal fired power plant with 2X1200MW (so 2400MW) generators = X

      Cost of a battery to store and continuously deliver that same 2400MW. ???? Who cares, because the technology is so far away off into the future that it could only ever be a (very very very rough) guess.

      Lifespan of coal fired power plant – 40 to 50 years

      Lifespan of battery – around 7 years tops, and for a battery to continuously be charging and delivering that sort of power all the time, well forget it.

      Battery storage and power delivery on that scale is a dream that only clueless people can ever aspire to, or believe when someone tells them with a straight face that it’s just there, around that next corner.

      Battery storage for personal home use for rooftop solar is all but still out of the range of the average person, and that’s only 20KWH per day, just to supply the power requirements overnight only, so when you are talking Sydney and a constant requirement for 83,000,000KWH per day, you imagine the battery storage for that, and then try and extrapolate the cost, and don’t even bother to start, because that technology will never be available.

      Tony.

      100

      • #
        Willard

        Lifespan of battery around 7 years tops- please Tony if you want to be credible in anything you say provide some up to date information, modern Lithium batteries have a far longer useful life than 7 years, not talking about the cheap rubbish in garden solar lights but batteries design and produced for energy storage and traction applications.

        06

        • #
          Dennis

          And what is the cost of wind turbines with combined equivalent continuous capacity two coal fired power stations described by Tony and battery pack storage over 40-50 years?

          And can that combination provide base grid power 24 hours a day, 7 days a week all year every year?

          50

        • #
          Konrad

          I know of no lithium batteries that can survive 2555 charge/discharge cycles.

          60

      • #
        Analitik

        And with some refurbishment, a coal plant can have a 20 year life extension (same with nukes)

        Good luck to the greenwash rebuilding their wind turbines and solar panels as they approach failure.

        50

        • #
          Dennis

          Have the wind turbine owners in SA welded up their basically engineered feeder line pylons yet, that the SA Labor Government approved to enable money to be saved?

          30

      • #
        Rick Will

        Lifespan of battery – around 7 years tops, and for a battery to continuously be charging and delivering that sort of power all the time, well forget it.

        Right now it is possible to mount an economic case for a grid scale Lithium battery in SA. When the supply is so fickle there are great opportunities to benefit from fast response storage systems like Lithium. For example a 100MWh battery could be pulled at 20MW during a 4 hour peak demand period. With prices regularly getting into the 1000s of dollars it is possible to get reasonable output to input price difference of say AUD300/MWh over enough periods to get a positive return; sometimes SA prices go negative so money could actually be made charging the battery.

        The battery does not need to deep cycle very often to make money. Hence it will have a long life.

        So the SA government is faced with the dilemma upon recognising that they have created a nightmare encouraging IGs. Options are A:- Completely abandon the present course and go back to base load generation B:- Limit further penetration of IGs by phasing out RETs and reducing FITs for retail connections to zero while balancing with solid base load and fast response plant to ensure stability C:- Hold the line on IGs and encourage installation of fast response GTs and battery/inverter storage. My bet is C. There will be a few battery and inverter manufacturers eying off the opportunity. In fact Finkel has GE and Siemens on his globe trotting agenda.

        I will be very surprised if the unreliability in SA does not get worse before it begins to improve. The lessons are only just beginning.

        10

        • #
          bobl

          No it’s not, what storage timescale do you use, then you have to consider the overbuild needed to charge it in addition to grid needs. A continental high can sit over this country for a month, the trough over west QLD has been causing calm weather and heat for two weeks at my place – No wind generation capacity here. So eventually the batteries run down batteries will NOT stop blackouts.

          11

          • #
            Rick Will

            The battery is not being charged by solar or wind. You charge the battery when the price is cheap and send it out when price is high. The greater the instability the bigger the price difference. A lithium battery is happy being charged at 5 hour rate and discharged at 2 hour rate. The dispatch decision would aim to maximise the system return given some knowledge of the cycle life and DoD relationship.

            Here is SA data for a day in January:
            SA1,2017/01/27 00:00:00,1347.8,50.11,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 00:30:00,1243.75,43.61,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 01:00:00,1198.93,43.02,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 01:30:00,1152.02,41.47,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 02:00:00,1106.83,42.73,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 02:30:00,1061.13,40.59,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 03:00:00,1071.33,41.54,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 03:30:00,1076.93,41.26,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 04:00:00,1086.66,39.76,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 04:30:00,1100.5,42.04,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 05:00:00,1116.64,42.77,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 05:30:00,1139.71,43.47,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 06:00:00,1172.46,51.94,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 06:30:00,1187.2,55.67,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 07:00:00,1242.89,73.42,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 07:30:00,1273.18,74.94,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 08:00:00,1284.32,79.99,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 08:30:00,1295.43,83.80,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 09:00:00,1278,98.22,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 09:30:00,1254.09,104.31,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 10:00:00,1240.19,116.05,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 10:30:00,1221.42,118.78,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 11:00:00,1214.3,99.79,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 11:30:00,1223.28,88.62,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 12:00:00,1251.97,87.75,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 12:30:00,1254.76,83.22,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 13:00:00,1287.95,83.30,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 13:30:00,1311.71,86.92,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 14:00:00,1358.59,86.87,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 14:30:00,1405.84,91.25,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 15:00:00,1474.4,103.32,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 15:30:00,1537.02,144.90,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 16:00:00,1621.43,131.24,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 16:30:00,1684.47,117.76,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 17:00:00,1748.18,120.48,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 17:30:00,1809.01,124.15,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 18:00:00,1840.64,122.91,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 18:30:00,1866.55,124.85,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 19:00:00,1874.25,125.20,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 19:30:00,1849.98,112.70,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 20:00:00,1793.35,113.10,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 20:30:00,1751.09,103.83,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 21:00:00,1721.75,102.26,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 21:30:00,1639.49,88.24,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 22:00:00,1557.9,82.14,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 22:30:00,1514.57,84.27,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 23:00:00,1447.32,79.11,TRADE
            SA1,2017/01/27 23:30:00,1417.56,79.69,TRADE

            Power could be bought for $40/MWh overnight and sold at over $120/MWh during the peak. The cycle efficiency at high rates is around 95%.

            During the winter months when the solar output is low the margins are even better:
            SA1,2016/06/03 00:00:00,1732.78,173.62,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 00:30:00,1614.76,95.34,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 01:00:00,1518.67,91.19,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 01:30:00,1420.49,93.70,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 02:00:00,1340.68,106.85,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 02:30:00,1287.38,105.35,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 03:00:00,1250.68,73.84,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 03:30:00,1218.82,58.80,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 04:00:00,1200.82,63.55,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 04:30:00,1189.48,71.79,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 05:00:00,1203.68,94.43,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 05:30:00,1219.34,137.56,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 06:00:00,1243.51,266.50,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 06:30:00,1317.38,302.18,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 07:00:00,1434.77,299.71,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 07:30:00,1572.78,306.18,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 08:00:00,1693.1,317.58,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 08:30:00,1764.31,322.14,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 09:00:00,1745.26,311.70,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 09:30:00,1670.22,314.36,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 10:00:00,1617.76,307.50,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 10:30:00,1539.97,256.42,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 11:00:00,1455.46,271.16,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 11:30:00,1387.64,228.44,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 12:00:00,1340.24,152.02,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 12:30:00,1329.11,231.18,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 13:00:00,1341.54,298.02,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 13:30:00,1375.92,280.67,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 14:00:00,1415.92,286.93,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 14:30:00,1427.51,278.45,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 15:00:00,1438.61,280.88,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 15:30:00,1423.34,133.97,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 16:00:00,1419.3,269.82,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 16:30:00,1479.5,237.84,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 17:00:00,1549.12,184.62,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 17:30:00,1617.65,132.96,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 18:00:00,1750.5,278.80,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 18:30:00,1889.15,233.28,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 19:00:00,1918.26,133.96,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 19:30:00,1900.91,117.38,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 20:00:00,1841.73,183.76,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 20:30:00,1819.86,232.77,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 21:00:00,1773.34,127.39,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 21:30:00,1746.14,214.71,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 22:00:00,1698.68,97.04,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 22:30:00,1623.7,141.55,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 23:00:00,1588.32,201.19,TRADE
            SA1,2016/06/03 23:30:00,1533.45,129.87,TRADE

            Buy at an average of $80/MWh and dispatch at over $300/MWh to give margin of $220/MWh.

            There are also the windfall periods where prices spike well over $10,000/MWh. The frequency of those events will increase with higher penetration of intermittent generation and reduction of dispatchable generation. Lots of business opportunities in the chaos to keep the lights on.

            Working the battery to 45% DoD and only charge to 95% of capacity will give a cycles life in excess of 5000. Much better cycle life than full cycling which gets less than 2000 cycles. If the power is cycled at an average margin of $1.50/kWh then the battery will earn $3500/kWh of installed capacity averaging 50% of capacity per cycle. Obviously is the system was earning $100/kWh you would cycle deeper. On the cost side, my lithium battery/inverter cost $500/kWh. Tesla are claiming their cost is USD180/kWh. The commercial installations in outback Australia are around $1800/kWh as best as I can discern from press information. Whatever cost you pick there is a good margin to $3500/kWh to pay for financing and operating cost plus a profit.

            00

  • #
    pat

    as theirABC keeps telling us, they are trusted by almost all Australians!

    10 Feb: ABC: Malcolm Turnbull’s turnaround on renewable energy, from pro-carbon price to clean coal
    Analysis by Stephen Long
    In the past, Malcolm Turnbull accepted the extensive body of work by engineers and scientists that shows it is possible to supply all, or most, of our electricity from renewable sources (LINK) and still have reliable supply (LINK)…

    Never mind that “clean coal” is, in fact, not that clean.
    Even the best of the new-generation coal power plants emit huge quantities of greenhouse gases that, on the overwhelming evidence from climate science, risk frying the planet…

    Never mind, either, that clean coal won’t push down power prices: electricity costs for consumers could double, not fall, if new coal-fired power stations are built, energy experts say…
    And never mind that the Government’s enthusiasm for coal-fired power has baffled ***just about everybody in the ***real world of energy policy…
    “Right now ‘clean coal’ doesn’t look like it’s got a place in the Australian energy mix,” its chief executive Innes Willox, a former Liberal Party staffer, told the ABC…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-10/malcolm-turnbull-renewable-energy-turnaround/8258502

    01

    • #
      AndrewWA

      The Federal and State Governments don’t have to start throwing money at clean coal.

      All they have to do is stop subsidising wind and solar and remove the penalties on coal and gas.

      The energy market would respond accordingly.

      40

  • #
    David Maddison

    The desert fiefdom of Quatar spends US$1 billion to produce all its freshwater by desalination.

    Australia spends far more than that on its desalination plants which are mostly idle.

    Thanks Flim Flammery!

    30

  • #
    pat

    8 Feb: HuffPoAustralia: Climate Scientist’s Defiant, In-Your-Face Message To Trump
    How to make America great again? Michael Mann has a one-word solution.
    by Anthony Sharwood, sports & environment editor
    Michael Mann knows he’s in for the fight of his life.
    The 51-year-old climate scientist has been fighting like hell for 25 years, but this is the big one…
    “Science has become a full contact sport,” the 51-year-old professor at Penn State University told The Huffington Post Australia.
    “It’s not what I signed up for. Little did I realise that I was putting myself on a trajectory that would take me to the very centre of the most contentious debate we’ve ever had societally. But having found myself at the centre of that storm, I’ve ultimately come to terms with it and really embraced it.”…
    When asked what message he’d give President Trump if the two were alone in a room, it was all about three things — renewables, renewables and renewables…
    CHECK THE PHOTOS & CAPTIONS
    MICHAEL MANN: Still cheery after all these years
    REX TILLERSON: Dude with grey hair and glasses.
    SCOTT PRUITT: Dude with grey hair and glasses
    RICK PERRY: Dude with greying hair and glasses. Who says there’s no diversity in the Trump cabinet? …
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/02/07/climate-change-scientists-defiant-in-your-face-message-to-trum/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

    AUDIO: 19mins01secs: 9 Feb: ABC Late Night Live: Phillip Adams: Trump’s War on Climate Science
    According to Michael Mann, Trump is turning the US into a ‘petro-state’.
    Mann is a major player in the politics of climate change in the US. In 1998, he became infamous for “hockey stick graph” – which showed a sharp rise in global temperatures since 1900.
    He has been hounded by republicans and climate change deniers, received death threats – even a deadly delivery of anthrax in the mail.
    But none of that has stopped him. He is in Australia talking about how to combat the climate deniers – and part of this strategy is to use satire…
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/latenightlive/micheal-mann-climate-change/8254842

    Twitter: Christopher Wright, Professor University of Sydney: PIC: Had a great time being interviewed by @DoctorKarl with @MichaelEMann this afternoon
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherWr11/status/829569973148200960/photo/1

    don’t know when/where Dr. Karl interview will show up.

    13

  • #
    Dennis

    After all the hyperbole on the television news yesterday mid north coast NSW right now it is 30 C outside mid afternoon, hottest time of day.

    10

  • #
    Analitik

    Latest notice from the AEMO for NSW today – #57361, 10 FEB 2017 13:28

    Update – FORECAST LACK OF RESERVE LEVEL 3 (LOR3) in the New South Wales region- PD PASA.
    AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

    Update – FORECAST LACK OF RESERVE LEVEL 3 (LOR3) in the New South Wales region- PD PASA.

    Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice 57339, 57357

    AEMO declares forecast LOR3 condition for the NSW Region for the following period.

    Friday 10th February 2017 from 1600 hrs to 1700 hrs

    The minimum reserve available is -189

    This calculation is based on a LOR3 trigger level of 0 MW.

    AEMO is seeking a market response.

    AEMO will intervene through an AEMO intervention event as required in the dispatch timeframe.

    The minimum reserve was -443 MW last night so they are getting closer to handling the situation without rolling blackouts, although earlier today, the shortfall was 77 MW (#57357, 10 FEB 2017 10:36)
    http://www.aemo.com.au/Market-Notices

    Giles at RenewEconomy is foaming at the mouth at the prospect of thermal generation shortfall to distract from the South Australian debacle
    Coal-reliant NSW faces rolling blackouts as accusations fly in South Australia

    00

    • #
      AndyG55

      Switch off the interconnects to SA and Vic.. that should solve most of the shortfall. :-)

      11

      • #
        Analitik

        Oi! We were sending power North to NSW during the critical period from around 4pm. We would have sent more if the South Australians hadn’t been leaching off us at the same time.

        Next year may well be different without Hazelwood :(

        20

    • #
      AndyG55

      If the Greens and the political agenda hadn’t caused the closure of Munmorah, and blocked expansions at one of the Hunter Valley power stations, there would be plenty.

      I can’t comment at RenewCrap.. for some reason I was banned after only two posts! ;-)

      01

  • #
    pat

    hopefully, not dependent on wind or solar!

    must-watch video:

    VIDEO/PHOTO GALLERY: 8 Feb: KRTV: Mike Rawlins: Historic winter storm drops more than 5 feet of snow in parts of Montana
    St. Mary (Glacier County) reported a total of 64″ of snow during the 4-day period beginning February 3 and ending February 7. This smashes the previous 4-day extreme of 43″ set back in November 1990.
    The National Weather Service in Great Falls says Babb reported an unofficial total of 60″, and the most snow ever reported over a 4-day period prior to this storm was 24″ back in 1954.
    At Many Glacier, an automated SNOTEL station recorded 63″ of snow — the previous 4-day record was just 36″.
    Browning reported 3 feet of snow during the storm, which ties for the 3-day record set in September 1908…
    http://www.krtv.com/story/34447950/historic-winter-storm-drops-more-than-5-feet-of-snow-in-parts-of-montana

    VIDEOS: 9 Feb: Boston Globe: Watch: People are witnessing thunder snow across New England
    by Dialynn Dwyer
    As the storm swept across the region, people posted videos that captured the rumbling snowfall — and sometimes their startled reactions — online.
    “It shouldn’t surprise you if you hear thunder and see some lightning during the storm,” Boston.com meteorologist Dave Epstein said of Thursday’s storm. “If this is the case, you are experiencing thunder snow — and some of the most intense snowfall rates we’ll see.”…
    https://www.boston.com/weather/local-news/2017/02/09/watch-people-are-witnessing-thunder-snow-across-new-england

    9 Feb: Accuweather: Alex Sosnowski: Blizzard conditions slam New England while dangerous freeze-up occurs in mid-Atlantic

    9 Feb: UKDaily Mail: Matt Hunter: Britain set to be colder than ICELAND: Met Office issues severe weather warning as temperatures plunge to -5C overnight and almost 2.5inches of SNOW is forecast for the weekend

    20

  • #
    pat

    10 Feb: Australian: Andrew Burrell: Pulling the unpalatable plug on renewables
    Bill Johnston is a veteran political operator. Before securing a safe Labor seat in 2008, he was the state secretary of the West Australian Labor Party and a trade union official…
    Now he is poised to be Western Australia’s next energy minister if, as the polls suggest, Labor wins the state election.
    Johnston is also a realist. And when The Australian yesterday revealed a recording in which he spoke enthusiastically about the prospect of a 50 per cent renewable energy target being introduced in the state, it didn’t take him long to pour cold water on the plan. With the lights out in renewable-powered South Australia yesterday and West Australia Labor fighting an election campaign in which it is trying to portray itself as moderate and business-friendly, the backdown was swift…
    His terse media statement yesterday expressed his position rather differently.
    “WA Labor will not introduce a state-based renewable energy target,” he said. “We aspire to have more renewable energy. After the election, we will sit down with industry and the community to see what is achievable and affordable.”
    Johnston told The Australian this week he could not comment on Labor’s renewable energy target. It would be released as part of a policy before election day. But now he says voters won’t be given any information until after March 11.
    Labor doesn’t want to do anything between now and the election that threatens its support in the coalmining town of Collie, located in a key marginal seat that is notionally Liberal after a redistribution.
    Mick Murray won the seat for Labor in 2013 by a handful of votes. Any talk of a 50 per cent renewables target would not only threaten Collie’s economic viability, it could cost Labor plenty of votes in Collie.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/pulling-the-unpalatable-plug-on-renewables/news-story/8f593d53df4bbeb721dc7cdd88709895

    lengthy, read all, kind of fits with above article:

    9 Feb: Breitbart: James Delingpole: Why Renewables Are Doomed and Fossil Fuels Are the Future
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/02/09/delingpole-renewables-doomed-fossil-fuels-future/

    31

  • #
    pat

    hope Delingpole sees this:

    9 Feb: Adelaide Advertiser Editorial: We must have light at end of energy tunnel
    FIFTEEN years ago yesterday, South Australians went to the polls and, ultimately, a new Labor government was installed.
    The then-premier, Mike Rann, aggressively pursued a policy to make the state a world leader in the adoption of renewable energy, particularly solar and wind. Mr Rann sold this move effectively, his pitch bolstered by climate change alarm in a nation gripped by drought.
    By 2006, he was basking in praise from renowned campaigner and former United States vice president Al Gore, who declared SA was “one of best examples of any state in the entire world where you see how leadership can make a tremendous difference in promoting renewable sources of energy”…

    Mr Rann’s successor, Premier Jay Weatherill, zealously pursued the same agenda, in late 2015 declaring the state was “running a big international experiment right now” on incorporating wind and solar…
    But SA shows the perils of going too hard, too fast on the energy transition path and placing ideology before pragmatism.
    Baseload generators are struggling for economic viability in the face of subsidised renewables or, in the case of Port Augusta’s coal-fired power station, have closed. But renewables are intermittent — meaning they rely on the wind blowing and the sun shining. As Wednesday night’s induced blackouts disastrously show, this means we sometimes simply do not have enough electricity to power the state.
    There have been numerous warnings. The Advertiser in 2015 revealed deep concerns about more blackouts and higher prices after Port Augusta power station’s closure, in May last year…

    SA has become a laughing stock — a state that, literally, cannot keep the lights on. Even more disturbingly, we’ve become a place where big business like BHP Billiton cite the risk posed by unreliable power supply…
    South Australians are seething. We have been let down by our state and federal politicians. They must display true leadership to provide a basic utility — reliable and affordable electricity.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/the-advertiser-editorial-we-must-have-light-at-end-of-energy-tunnel/news-story/d99693ee393f00ca01523932642d08c7

    51

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      The Advertiser Friday Front page describes the State Cabinet as DIMWITS in 150 point. It include a list of suburbs that face possible blackouts.

      20

  • #
    pat

    10 Feb: Courier Mail: Opinion: Let’s not go cool on coal in favour of renewable energy just yet
    by Mike O’Connor
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/opinion-lets-not-go-cool-on-coal-in-favour-of-renewable-energy-just-yet/news-story/6840a08417b483429ce329d3c48610f8

    however, just posted by SBS:

    10 Feb: SBS: AAP: CSIRO says 100pc renewables possible
    A Senate inquiry has been told a combination of engineering and technology could be used to deliver 100 per cent renewable energy
    CSIRO economist Paul Graham told an upper house committee hearing on Friday that 100 per cent renewable energy could be delivered through the use of new battery technology, frequency control and synchronous condensers.
    “There does appear to be solutions going forward to achieve whatever is desirable,” Mr Graham said of renewable energy targets.
    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/02/10/csiro-says-100pc-renewables-possible

    41

    • #
      Analitik

      CSIRO economist Paul Graham told an upper house committee hearing on Friday that 100 per cent renewable energy could be delivered through the use of new battery technology, frequency control and synchronous condensers.

      Ain’t it great how economists can tell us all about technology as well as climate change. Scientists and engineers must be redundant!

      90

      • #
        Greebo

        Science and engineering are so last century dahling. Haven’t you heard of com…something modelling? That’s how we do it now. Drinkies!!

        10

    • #
      bobl

      Anything is possible, if we shut down SA and moved the population to a (coal powered) QLD (Under a One Nation Government) and put “Do not enter” hazmat signs along the SA border then yep, they could achieve 100% renewable energy.

      What am I saying, leave the green zealots behind in SA and impose a travel ban on them…

      (sigh)

      00

  • #
    pat

    links to Climate Lunatics report, but it isn’t working for me:

    9 Feb: ClimateChangeNews: Megan Darby: End coal by 2030 to meet Paris climate goal, EU told
    Germany and Poland face biggest challenge to break dependence on dirty fuel, in scenarios mapped by Climate Analytics
    Belchatow, Poland, to close in 2027. Neurath, Germany, to burn its last lump of lignite in 2029 or 2030.
    That is what meeting the climate goals world leaders agreed in Paris means for the EU’s biggest coal power stations, according to a report by Climate Analytics…
    “A global phase-out of coal is the first, most cost-effective intervention that has to occur for a 1.5C or 2C pathway,” said Michiel Schaeffer, science director at Climate Analytics.
    “However, that fact alone does not mean that it is everywhere politically or socially desirable. The effect that we hope for is to inform the debate.”…
    Germany and Poland, collectively responsible for more than half of EU coal emissions, face the biggest political obstacles.
    For all its embrace of renewables, Germany still generates 40% of its power from coal. Calls for a phase-out timeline have met resistance from mining unions and companies…
    Poland, which has more than 80% coal in the electricity mix, is even expanding its fleet…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/02/09/end-coal-by-2030-to-meet-paris-climate-goal-eu-told/

    IPCC/World Bank/Green Climate Fund-riddled Climate Analytics’ Team
    http://climateanalytics.org/about-us/team.html

    Partners & Funders – Climate Analytics
    http://climateanalytics.org/about-us/partners-and-funders.html

    can’t even get the report to function when i download it from their publications page.

    sounds good to me:

    9 Feb: CarbonPulse: UK won’t be able to remain in EU’s carbon market, says senior MEP
    The UK won’t be able to stay in the EU ETS as it negotiates its exit from the bloc, according to UK MEP Ian Duncan, the EU Parliament lawmaker steering the market’s reform.

    10 Feb: CarbonPulse: New California bill sees state carbon market playing second fiddle to direct regulation
    A trio of California state lawmakers has proposed legislation that would extend the state’s cap-and-trade programme but shift it into a complementary role to ‘command-and-control’ style regulations.

    21

  • #
    David Maddison

    South Australia, here is the solution to your energy crisis.
    https://youtu.be/ZNa-JHPnpgM

    20

  • #
    David Maddison

    Batteries people!

    Be alert and alarmed!

    I bet The Fink is going to enforce the expenditure of $5,000 to $10,000 per home for battery storage, either in the form of domestic storage Tesla type battery packs or grid scale battery monstrosities.

    Say goodbye to the economy and hello to second or third world living conditions, as per the UN 2030 Agenda. All working to plan with the help of useless idiots, even self-described “scientists” and “engineers”.

    30

    • #
      Greebo

      So, is the Fink going to pay for my Powerwall? Because I’m not.

      20

      • #
        bobl

        Ill take a free or heavilly subsidised one because they work just great charged by a nice efficient water cooled diesel genset. (You can use the exhaust heat to make hot water) – Very efficient up to 80%.

        00

  • #
    Robdel

    And the sooner we get SA electricity blackouts the sooner will the CAGW and RET follies come to an end.

    30

    • #
      David Maddison

      Do you think that is enough to do it?

      10

      • #
        Greebo

        It hasn’t been so far. Labor is challenging the Electoral Commission in court to preserve the gerrymander in SA to keep the dream alive… sigh. Truly, they’re like cockroaches when the light comes on.

        10

  • #
    Analitik

    Looks like NSW has done some collective demand management and their grid is coping with support from Victoria and Queensland
    Big spikes in the mainland NEM MWh pricing at 3:45pm and 3:50pm (NSW: $4,841.41 & $5,747.69, Qld: $3,500.69 & $4,292.24, Vic: $3,719.48 & $4,662.00, SA: $4,497.90 & $5,633.99) and another all NEM bigger spike at 4:10pm (NSW: $7,564.66, Qld: $6,666.66, Vic: $6,128.17, SA: $7,438.82, Tas: $5,479.95) but the prices have fallen back into the normal territories

    Let’s hope it holds OK (Giles will be on his knees praying for the blackouts)

    Hold on new Market Notice – #57382, 10 FEB 2017 16:19

    Cancellation – FORECAST LACK OF RESERVE LEVEL 3 (LOR3) in the New South Wales region- PD PASA.
    AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

    Cancellation – FORECAST LACK OF RESERVE LEVEL 3 (LOR3) in the New South Wales region- PD PASA.

    Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice 57339, 57357

    AEMO has cancelled the forecast LOR3 condition for the NSW Region for the following period as previously advised.

    Friday 10th February 2017 from 1600 hrs to 1700 hrs

    Well done NEM – you serve your function well when predictable generation is present :D

    20

    • #
      AndyG55

      “(Giles will be on his knees praying for the blackouts)”

      But coal will be delivering EVERY MW it has available or was designed to deliver.

      Flat chat.. pedal to the metal.. so to speak.

      Giles WILL NEVER be able to say the same about wind.

      He is making a rod for his our **** if he starts making silly comments like that..

      01

      • #
        AndyG55

        It will prove that COAL power has to be expanded…..

        or that wind has to be able to deliver on demand.

        Which is the more feasible option, Giles !! ;-)

        11

  • #
    ROM

    So just lets imagine that our politicians and greens and climate alarmists and CSIRO and etc are so ignorant of reality and are stupid enough to believe that Australia can go to 100% renewable energy.

    Thats 100% renewable energy using solar panels, wind turbines and battery storage to tide the consumers through the nights and the no winds and the cloudy periods and the short winter days down south and etc.

    No IF’s, No BUTS’s allowed!

    Questions for the aforesaid renewable energy, battery storage proponents!

    Can renewable energy and batteries produce the concrete for the foundations for the required wind turbines?

    Nope! Never have, Never will as cement for concrete needs coal and lime and etc in large quantities to make the clinker from which cement is produced by grinding the clinker into a very fine powder in the ball mills.

    Can renewable energy and batteries provide the power both fixed and mobile to mine the ores to make the concrete and steel for the wind turbines and mine the exotic ores to produce the steel and metals for the wind turbines, the metals for the solar panels and the exotic ores for the batteries , all of which will require potentially a few million tonnes of dirt and ores to be mined, transported and refined and processed before they can be used to build turbines , solar panels and complex batteries ?

    Nope! never have, never will!

    Can the renewable energy and batteries provide the continuous dead steady high current requirements on a uninterrupted 24 hours a day, seven days a week, near year long non stop power required to power the continuous processes of smelting and refining steel and the copper and aluminium and exotic metals for the wind turbines, plus the exotic metals for the batteries and the specilised solar panel glass and exotic metals and materials for the solar panels.

    Nope. never will!

    Can wind turbines and solar panels and batteries provide the continuous dead steady power required to make the hundreds / thousands of tonnes of glass fibres and thousands of tonnes of exotic resins used to make each of the 10 tonne blades [ 3 per turbine ] on the wind turbines?
    Nope . never have, never will as with the glass and resins [ and steel and aluminium and etc ] there cannot be any interruptions to the production process otherwise the whol batch loses th stringent qualities needed for the production of the blades and towers and concrete foundations and etc.

    Once fossil fuel base load generators are gone for good, can the wind turbines and the solar panels with their unpredictable and highly variable output along with banks of batteries ever reproduce themselves and be used to manufacture new replacements when they wear out after a couple of decades whilst continuing to provide the consumer with some semblance of power to maintain the consumer’s standards of living?

    Not a snowballs chance in hell of ever achieving that on an industrial scale with turbines and solar panels and batteries;

    With unlimited hydro, maybe, on a small very limited short term scale.

    In short, renewable energy is completely incapable of reproducing and replacing itself if it hasn’t got very large, very stable fossil fueled generators to provide the dead steady stability of power required for so many very complex industrial and refining processes today so as to draw on to provide the replacements when the renewable energy components wear out after a couple of decades.

    Again we see the renewable energy scammers completely and no doubt deliberately lying and dodging the realities of renewable energies drawbacks and basic faults and a bunch of politicals and even more ignorant media types such as in the ABC being so stupid and ignorant that they don’t know and don’t care to ask some of the simplest, most obvious, most basic and most fundamental questions of the renewable energy scammers.

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      ROM

      Just came across this blog post .

      Can You Make a Wind Turbine Without Fossil Fuels?

      This refers only to building a wind turbine and does not include the power requirements for building both solar panels on a very large scale nor humongous sized batteries to cover the frequent non production periods of wind and solar.

      Various scenarios have been put forward showing that 100% renewable energy is achievable.
      Some of them even claim that we can move completely away from fossil fuels in only couple of decades.
      A world entirely without fossils might be desirable, but is it achievable?

      The current feasibility of 100% renewable energy is easily tested by asking a simple question.

      Can you build a wind turbine without fossil fuels?

      If the machines that will deliver 100% renewable energy cannot be made without fossil fuels, then quite obviously we cannot get 100% renewable energy.

      This is what a typical wind turbine looks like: [common turbine pic ]

      What is it made of?
      Lots of steel, concrete and advanced plastic.
      Material requirements of a modern wind turbine have been reviewed by the United States Geological Survey.
      On average 1 MW of wind capacity requires 103 tonnes of stainless steel, 402 tonnes of concrete, 6.8 tonnes of fiberglass, 3 tonnes of copper and 20 tonnes of cast iron.
      The elegant blades are made of fiberglass, the skyscraper sized tower of steel, and the base of concrete.

      These requirements can be placed in context by considering how much we would need if we were to rapidly transition to 100% wind electricity over a 20 year period.
      Average global electricity demand is approximately 2.6 TW, therefore we need a total of around 10 TW of wind capacity to provide this electricity.
      So we would need about 50 million tonnes of steel, 200 million tonnes of concrete and 1.5 million tonnes of copper each year.
      These numbers sound high, but current global production of these materials is more than an order of magnitude higher than these requirements.
      &
      In conclusion we obviously cannot build wind turbines on a large scale without fossil fuels.

      Now, none of this is to argue against wind turbines, it is simply arguing against over-promising what can be achieved.
      It also should be pointed out that we cannot build a nuclear power plant, or any piece of large infrastrtucture for that matter, without concrete or steel.
      A future entirely without fossil fuels may be desirable, but currently it is not achievable.
      Expectations must be set accordingly.

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        Greebo

        What is it made of?
        Lots of steel, concrete and advanced plastic.

        Hmm. What about the windings, the other wiring, the computers needed to control the thing. That is a very simplistic try at what else would be in one of the things, but it’s much less simplistic than the author’s quote.

        I agree with the last two sentences, however. Well, apart the desirable bit. I don’t think DiLithium crystals are going to happen any time soon.

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    Rick Will

    Average global electricity demand is approximately 2.6 TW, therefore we need a total of around 10 TW of wind capacity to provide this electricity.

    This is simplistic. It is not a matter of just multiplying the rated generating capacity by the reciprocal of the capacity factor.

    The power supply has to meet the demand as it occurs. The wind cannot be scheduled. In fact from a scheduling perspective wind is worse than the sun. I would expect that for the minimum cost solution the rated capacity would need to be about 10 times the maximum demand. That level of generation is consistent with the storage capacity being around 40 hours worth of the demand. So say rated capacity of turbines 26TW and the storage 100TWh. At current best prices the world can be converted to 100% renewables for a capital outlay of USD70tr. Just under one year global GDP.

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      bobl

      Solar overbuild is 25 times, wind is probably 6month overbuild or around 150 times because they can be becalmed for long period. The kicker thou is the energy density Solar is around 3Watts per square metre while wind is under 1 Watt per square meter. This means that significant generation takes up huge areas – in perspective Ivanpah generates about the same as just ONE 777 engine that hangs off the aircraft wing IE small. Ivanpah is 16 Square Kilometers of environmental destruction.

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    John Michelmore

    AGL cuts power to Tomago Aluminium Smelter!!! No need to panic, it’s only manufacturing!

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    Current total Australian power consumption. – 210TWH per annum

    Current total wind power delivery. – 7TWH per annum.

    You tell me where the rest comes from.

    When greenies say renewables can fill the bill, it makes me laugh, and I’m the efffing denier.

    Tony.

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    Crakar24

    Look out wind down to 60mw, still hot so ac will be running for a while yet……wtf do we care my area is not rostered on for load shedding

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    Apoxonbothyourhouses

    Suppliers are bidding to supply a resource which is an entitlement? Maybe there should be a bidding process for say open heart surgery or water supply to your house or whether a teacher will school your children. I will leave it as monumentally stupid and a complete failure of democracy. My real thoughts would surely be moderated out.

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