Bigger than Brexit: This is a win for workers and the middle class.
It’s a major loss for the old media and political correctness. Corruption finally gets pegged back.
Trump beat both political parties, almost every government organisation, Wall Street, and media outlets. — Jo
UPDATE: Listening to the ABC, commentators are talking about the fear of a Trump victory. But the only people who ought to be afraid are the corrupt, the freeloaders and the illegal immigrants. People phoning in were talking about the grassroots movement of those who are fed up with the establishment. The ABC academic, given the last word, replied that this wasn’t a real grassroots movement –“that narrative is false” — because “political parties have been trying to seed doubts about institutions for years”. Sure thing. Which political party supported Trump?
The Trump victory is a win for democracy. This is as grassroots as it gets. Without the internet and a passionate crowd of people on the street how could Trump have defeated the non-stop demonization from the media?
Trump Wins
The Victory Speech
The speech:
(Live streaming) Watch (maybe) here or here or here.
6.30pm AEST NY Times Headline: Trump is on the verge of a stunning upset
On twitter congratulations are flowing in: Fox News :.@SpeakerRyan calls to congratulate Trump. Marine Le Pen from France, also.
Hillary is not conceding, but she is starting to get flack for not doing so.
Michael Smith News @mpsmithnews
Podesta just spoke to Hillary Campaign “Victory” Party – “Hillary will be back, let’s get these votes counted and bring this home!”
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3pm AEST: Things are shifting fast. In the last hour it appears the markets and now news commentators are suddenly realizing a Trump presidency is likely. NY Times commentators are starting to discuss how the modeling by the Clinton team must have been “way off” and there seem to be signs of the “hidden vote” that Trumps team were mocked for discussing.
New York Times, live result forecast: Trump win: 88% 94%, Clinton win: 12% 6%
NYTimes predicts Trump likely to take the Presidency AND the Senate and House
Note that the Florida margin is only +1% to Trump. Things could still change. (UPDATE: But 98% of the vote is counted. )
The Wall Street Journal reports that stock markets are falling and currencies shifting as a Trump win becomes more likely. With about a quarter of the US GDP tied up in the government, many businesses are aligned with government agencies, grants, and policies. Trump represents a threat to that gravy train.
SportsBet Australia: Trump 1.02, Clinton 10.
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Watching the markets (2pm):
New York Times, live result forecast: Trump win: 68% 78% , Clinton win: 32% 22%
Note they still report Clinton to win the popular vote by 2% or so.
Live betting odds 1.40pm AEDT. Clinton 2.8, Trump 1.4.
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Watching the markets (1.30pm):
RealClear Politics has Trump at 49% (148) : Clinton 47% (109)
Things have changed in the last 30 minutes. This is only a small ($16) sharp upward move in the spot gold price. But combined with live betting odds which now have Trump and Hillary level, it suggests players are suddenly treating a Trump win as a serious possibility as the Florida numbers come in.
Live betting odds 1.40pm AEDT. Clinton 1.77, Trump 1.97.
(At 1pm AEDT they were Clinton 1.3, Trump 3.3)
Image at 2:30pm AEDT
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Live Chart (which seems to be updating very slowly)
Whatever happens today half of America is going to sucker-punched
Thank the media. Because it won’t report the gratuitous details about why the chant is “Lock her up” many people are oblivious to the depth of the allegations about corruption. Because the media will report gratuitous details of something said years ago in a private conversation, half the country has taken a crass remark as if it were national policy.
By Bill Scher— Democratic Hillary Clinton supporters, while congenitally skittish, are incredulous that an immigrant-bashing, misogynistic blowhard could even make this presidential race competitive, and are taking to the bank the poll lead Clinton has held essentially all year.
Republican Donald Trump’s superfans, while convinced everything is rigged, found new optimism in the wake of the FBI’s review of Clinton aide Huma Abedin’s emails found on Anthony Weiner’s computer and the subsequent smattering of tighter polls. (Comey popped the balloon on the GOP’s hopes of finding a smoking gun Sunday when he told lawmakers in a letter that, based on the new review, “we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.” But Trump voters may still conclude that Americans are more primed than ever to imprison Clinton instead of elect her.) The Trump campaign had been feeding the optimism by stumping in blue states like Michigan and Minnesota where the GOP nominee has never held a lead. They believe America is on the verge of a “Brexit” moment, in which a silent nationalist majority outperforms the polls and humiliates the Establishment.
The two groups live in different worlds — if not geographically then online. But by Wednesday morning, someone’s worldview will be shattered beyond recognition.
On Vote Rigging:
Surely one of the the saddest things in this election is that vote rigging has become such an issue. How fundamental is a vote count to any democracy? It’s a measure of the degradation of what was once a high trust system. US voters can not be confident anymore that the votes are honest.
I’m grateful that here in Australia, at least, the paper system means we can have a recount, with observers. The US system doesn’t give that certainty.
Vote rigging does occur, it’s been documented. We don’t know how much and whether it can change the result. The only thing we know for sure is that the Democrats don’t want to do anything to make it harder for non-citizens to vote and people to cheat.