JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

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Weekend Unthreaded, 7.8 out of 10 based on 26 ratings

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249 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Wow! I’m in the race for #1 again and here I sit with nothing to say. Nuts! ;-)

    But at least I can wish everyone a happy weekend.

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    • #
      jorgekafkazar

      Having nothing to say is far better than having something to say that ain’t so.

      Happy weekend.

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    • #
      Yonniestone

      Roy we saw the new Clint Eastwood movie Sully, it was an incredible story.

      I was interested in your thoughts being an aviator.

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      • #
        mal

        Saw the movie Scully today. Tom Hanks was very good, Clint Eastwood as a director just gets better and better.

        10

        • #
          Ozwitch

          Husband (pilot)* and I saw the movie the other day and were very impressed by the depiction of the incident, but even more so by the way Eastwood, and Hanks, showed that the nightmare began for Sully after the aircraft landed. The true story lies not in the landing, which was well flown and managed, but in the decision to make that landing, with loss of hull and possible loss of lives. The responsibility and accountability for those decisions is why pilots, especially Captains, earn the big bucks.
          The NTSB reaction was overplayed for dramatic purposes, but it would have mirrored the doubts and second-guessing going on in Sully’s head for months afterward.
          The biggest theme for me was the way in which professional excellence and expertise is being downgraded by airline managements, owners and government bureacracies in the desperate slide to save money. Pilots aren’t cheap, good ones less so. Good pilots have standards and keep to them. Cheap airlines fire pilots for diverting to ‘expensive’ airports, ordering evacuations on the ground, carrying ‘too much fuel’ etc. All these decisions are second-guessed after the event. Cheap airlines hire compliant pilots who do as they are told just to keep their jobs. Don’t fly with them.
          *Husband had major incident in 2008, so he knows exactly what is going through Sully’s head during the film. Highly recommends the movie.

          10

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Having known several airline pilots at various times in my life and being a pilot myself I understand exactly what you’re talking about. Saving the flight and everyone aboard, even though it was a close call, is the easy part. Then comes being second guessed, being famous for just doing what was your job and a whole lot of stress, none of which he needed. Sully appears to have handled his celebrity well. I wonder if I could do as well in his place.

            In those few minutes he earned every penny that has ever been paid to every airline pilot since airlines began. And they aren’t paid nearly enough for the responsibility they take.

            Frankly, because I have some insight into what’s happening to aviation I have made it a personal policy to never fly unless the need is great enough to justify putting myself at the mercy of a crew that may know more about putting commands into the flight management system than about flying the airplane themselves.

            For anyone who doesn’t know how radically things have changed — until recently the pilot and copilot sat in front of the yoke and rudder pedals, direct control over the airplane even if it’s fly-by-wire. Then I saw a picture of the cockpit of the latest Airbus and there to my horror was a keyboard where the yoke used to be and the two pilots have just a small 3 axis side stick with which to fly the plane (which, by the way is not a problem in and of itself). The implication is obvious, you tell the flight management system what to do and then let it do it. This is fine when all is normal. But then comes the point where, near your destination airport you get a warning of conflicting traffic too close and they give you a vector (compass heading) to avoid it. Do you take over and fly the plane, get on the new heading (takes almost no time) or do you take the time to put the new heading into the computer and expect it to take over (takes many seconds during which you may have hit the conflicting traffic at the 190 – 200 knot speeds those jets are flying? Worse, suppose you have a failure in flight. Your flying skill might need to be a lot better than it is.

            The problem is recognized by some senior airline pilots as so serious that they’ve started a movement to get pilots to give up their immediate reliance on the computer and do just what I said above, fly the plane themselves until they can tell the computer what to do without the threat of immediate danger and the pressure of time, pressure which can lead to mistakes.

            I’m hoping to see the movie tomorrow.

            00

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Yoni,

        We plan to see the movie within the next several days. So I can’t comment on the movie yet. However, I can comment on Sully. He’s a pilot’s pilot, a term used to say he’s recognized as one of the best. He saved the day by being prepared to deal with that once in a lifetime emergency with cool, deliberate, quick thinking and a lot of skill as a pilot. He was first offered the Teterboro, New Jersey airport by the air traffic controller, which was his closest possibility and given a vector (compass heading) to get there. He quickly realized that he couldn’t make it and decided on the Hudson River, something he could set up an approach for and hope to ditch in the water safely enough to live through the landing. Once committed to the Hudson he didn’t waver even a little. Absolutely a pro.

        A water landing is every land based pilots nightmare because if you hit the water just a little bit off a wings level attitude you get tossed around like a pingpong ball. I’ve seen video of a number of ditchings in the water and almost all of them went wrong. Water is hard when you hit it at the speed that airplane needed to keep it flying and if one wing hits before the other… You can fill in the rest I think. He did it so well I would call it perfect. It was lucky there was a surveillance camera and it was being monitored so it could follow him down. The view isn’t perfect, too far away and partially blocked. But it shows a real life miracle as it happened.

        I’m not qualified to make any kind of official judgment but I’ll offer my opinion that a younger pilot, especially one who learned more about button pushing than about being a pilot, might not have saved that flight.

        I’m looking forward to the movie and I’ll let you know what I think after I’ve watched it.

        30

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          The unfortunate thing in all this is that one critical step in the ditching checklist is near the end instead of the beginning. Those pressurized jets have a large valve assembly at the rear of the pressure hull that lets air escape as new air is forced in to keep it pressurized. They were going frantically down that checklist as fast as they could but didn’t get to finish it in the time they had so they didn’t get to the step that said, throw the “ditch switch”, which would have closed off that valve, preventing water from getting in. So the plane began to fill with water immediately and started to sink.

          Ordinarily you could hope for it to stay afloat for a considerable time since it was intact. But filling with water is another matter. It was a good thing rescue was close at hand, otherwise the ending might have been quite different. The Hudson at that time of year is very cold.

          30

          • #
            Annie

            I remember seeing that video Roy. It was a very impressive landing indeed. Real cool calm flying.

            Our pilot son would agree with you about some of the current generation’s training. He came up ‘through the ranks’ so to speak and has handled many types from tiny to massive. We’ve often thought how much that was similar to sailing, where dinghy racing honed skills that came in very useful on large yachts.

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            • #
              Roy Hogue

              Annie,

              There is a saying about flying that goes something like this.

              Flying is not necessarily dangerous but even more than the sea, flying is unforgiving of any carelessness, mistake or incapacity.

              I once had a wall poster with a picture of an old biplane nestled in the branches of a tree with it’s wings wrapped around the tree as though embracing it. That saying was on the lower part of the poster. I think I gave that poster away and I don’t remember the circumstances well anymore but it was near the end of a company management training seminar. The point being that there’s no substitute for knowing what you’re doing.

              10

              • #
                Jim Poulos

                I had a grizzled Lieutenant Commander for a flight instructor and three lessons stuck:

                1. There are old pilots and bold pilots but there are no old, bold pilots.

                2. Fly slow-crash slow.

                3. If ditching at night – refer to your nav map and let down to about 250ft agl – turn your landing lights on – if you don’t like what you see turn the landing lights off.

                00

              • #
                John McDougall

                “Aviation, like the sea, is not inherently dangerous. But it can be terribly unforgiving of carelessness, incapacity, or neglect”.
                I read that on the wall of a skydiving club in Brisbane on my first visit back in 1961. I stuck around for a few jumps; and I never forgot the quotation.

                00

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                Jim, John,

                Shouldn’t that be, fly slow – crash even slower? ;-)

                Fortunately that part about not being inherently dangerous is true and most pilots fly a lifetime without crashing an airplane. I do remember three close calls but I was alert and stayed out of trouble.

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          • #
            Yonniestone

            Thanks for your insights Roy, appreciate the reply.

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    • #
      stan stendera

      I have something to say I’m very proud about. I have never in my life made a contribution to a political campaign nor have I worked in a political campaign. You CAN teach an old dog new tricks. At 74 I am doing both for Donald Trump. I’m so proud and happy with myself I am about to POP. I’m a frequent commenter here but I will be absent for awhile. I hardly have time to read Jo, WUWT, or notrickszone. I am sure you understand.

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    • #
      Bartender

      Internet is probably one of mankind’s finest invention after the wheel.

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      • #

        Was the internet actually invented? By Whom? AlGore?
        Seems more like an overwhelming fungus, that demands more BPS and storage than can be produced. Da Band Aid was da finest! How else ya gonna boil an egg? (old farts only)

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  • #
    Graeme No.3

    A few comments as my European trip finishes. Purple shoes seem to be the coming fashion in the UK, and tight short shorts adorn many a young female rear. I have looked at this carefully and can report that the two never coincide, much like predictions of global warming and actual temperatures.
    In France the rear view is even better but usually covered by jeans. Much the same applies in Spain, although in Portugal tight shorts are abundant but usually on an American girl. The Portuguese girls mostly prefer soft floating clothing which still manages to cling to the right places, as do their boyfriends who have adapted the old slogan..when you are on a good thing, stick to it.
    Does this trend to lesser coverage confirm that global warming is happening at last? Well this DOM felt his temperature using, but this hasn’t been confirmed by actual readings – I realise this is considered rather unnecessary in Climatology but there it is. I think that the reason may lay in the depressed economic situation so evident in those countries. The young are merely economising on expensive items like clothing.
    Spain and Portugal have both reduced their high unemployment rate slightly but economic growth is hardly evident. Both seem to be trying to use infrastructure as a boost with ambitious road building and other projects ( Lisbon is building a new railway station, a new Cruise boat Terminal and roads are being altered all over town, and wants to remove its entire port facilities to the south bank of the Tagus River). It seems that they are relying on a continuing flow of EU money, but whether that happens will depend on how Brexit works out. Portugal claims to be fourth biggest in the World for wind electricity although it still draws substantial amounts from Spain, but it is also a big exporter of cement and concrete in various forms. Putting the two together indicates that actual reductions in CO2 are not happening, and it is becoming obvious that various European countries aren’t going to sign up for the Paris agreement if it means any sacrifice by them. The talk is that the EU won’t ratify the Paris agreement before the end of 2017, if then. Various groups are now agitating against the global warming ( thing ) and gaining traction. Mainstream politicians are very sensitive to losing votes so they too may be even less willing to indulge the Greens and their fantasies. Europe is edging to the right.
    Time will tell, but the outlook for the trolls is for disappointment, gloom and impotent rage. It couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch.

    261

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Graeme,

      I will definitely need to pay more attention to my rear view mirror. ;-)

      However it’s much the same here. I’ve been embarrassed more than once, not for myself but for some young girl dressed literally to “Kill”. And I mean short enough to look like they’re uncomfortable. If an adult dresses that way and society accepts it fine. But a 13 or 14 year old? Not even 16 or 17 years old!

      Their mothers, who always seem to be along, don’t even begin to dress that way.

      The hot weather has something to do with it of course. So maybe we should blame it on climate change? :-)

      80

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        In London, the locals refer to clothing as “threads”, or more phonetically, ‘Phredds’, the “ph” indicating a short “f” sound.

        So skimpy clothing could be termed as being “thredbare”, if you were a Cockney, in a warm climate (a conjunction that very rarely happens).

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        • #
          jorgekafkazar

          Skimpy clothing doesn’t bovver me.

          40

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            I would have to confess if you pressed me about it that whether it “bovvers” me or not depends on the clothing and the circumstances. Adults get to decide what they’re going to do. But children should not be allowed to dress in so cheap and tawdry a manner until they can understand what others, particularly teenage boys and many men, will be thinking about when they see how you’re dressed. At even 18 they nay not realize what they’re saying to the world.

            So sorry to be blunt, but in short, it looks too close to offering your daughter for sale to me. And I don’t like that.

            20

            • #
              Annie

              Well put Roy.

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            • #
              Rereke Whakaaro

              One of my partners managed to get herself in the wrong place, at the wrong time, over the weekend, and has consequently ended up in a hospital, where I visited her today.

              I was struck by the fact that the nurses either looked “mature” (i.e. my age), and “robust” (i.e. my build), or eighteen, and extremely tiny!

              How does that work?

              10

            • #
              John McDougall

              I made a comment last summer that many of the youngsters (in Brisbane, QLD)are wearing clothing that is similar to what hookers in Perth (WAust) and Denver (CO) were wearing about 30-40 years ago.
              I am too old to cogitate further …

              00

      • #
        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Even from that very fizzy old video I can tell that her shorts are nowhere near what I mentioned above.

          10

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          I cannot, for the life of me, understand how that song was ever a hit.

          The Royal Teens should not have been allowed to play with sharp instruments.

          10

          • #
            AndyG55

            “allowed to play with sharp instruments”

            HArd to tel if they were sharp or flat.

            A sort of mixture of both, I think.

            00

    • #
      Analitik

      Both seem to be trying to use infrastructure as a boost with ambitious road building and other projects…. It seems that they are relying on a continuing flow of EU money

      Well that strategy has worked out so well for China, hasn’t it?

      My summary of the 2nd half of Monday night’s The Business (one of the few “real” news programs on the ABC)
      Too bad the ABC hasn’t put the transcript up.

      China shadow banking collapse?
      Infrastructure “growth” based on shadow loans (5 x GDP in 2015 – 12 trillion Yuan)
      Credit growth: 2006 – US$3 trillion => 2015 – US$34 trillion
      Lack of return from ghost city investments.
      Government backed corporation bond defaults: 2014 – 4, 2015 – 15, 2016 (at current) – 20+
      Short term borrowing to cover long term liabilities > 10% (US subprime mismatch was 2.5%)

      The economic outlook is rapidly getting worse as the next phase of the GFC rolls in.
      A couple of articles on this issue this week
      https://www.ft.com/topics/themes/Shadow_Banking
      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-15/china-floods-economy-over-rmb-1-trillion-new-august-credit

      And David Stockman forecasting the outcome back in 2014
      http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/chinas-monumental-ponzi-heres-how-it-unravels/

      So this is the Brussels solution to EU stagnation. Figures.

      30

    • #
      toorightmate

      Graeme No. 3,
      Did you also notice all the wing turbines in Spain AND the solar “cooking” towers. All have contributed to the country’s demise AND unemployment.
      Don Quixote is alive and well.

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      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Not really, as I was on a ship which tended to avoid the very rocky coast. I did see 7 wind turbines on the way back from Rioja and remarkable 6 of the 7 were working.
        I agree that the “renewable” energy push has been runinous but remember the EU was doling out money and wind and water provided brownie points. The problem in Spain was that the various regions went berserk with subsidies until the collapse and the central government was the ultimate guarantor of the States. There are some small complexes in Galicia and Portugal that are a lesser drain as they use a combination of wind turbines and hydroelectricity. In effect using the latter to store the electricity while other turbines dump it onto the grid and drop the price. The stored electricity can be used when other wind turbines have failed and get a higher price (both areas are net importers of electricity.

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        • #
          Graeme No.3

          I see the lone troll doesn’t like being told that wind and solar power is expensive, especially if installed in an uncontrolled manner.

          20

    • #
      PeterPetrum

      I remember in the mid 60′s, jus before we left the Old Dart for the Antipodes (we were amongst the last of the £10 Poms) the girls were into very short skirts, sort of precursor to hot pants. Having to drive from Durham to the Newcastle office on a Saturday morning to fill in my sales reports was one of highlights of my otherwise fairly mundane week, as the office staff were encouraged to dress “casually” on a Saturday. Wouldn’t work now.

      20

  • #

    Those of you used to the bias of government appointed journalism courtesy the BBC, ABC, and CBC (i.e. Brits and colonials)might enjoy this discussion of a new BBC sponsored video on the plight of the polar bear and declining Arctic sea ice.

    https://polarbearscience.com/2016/09/17/polar-bear-tragedy-porn-dressed-up-as-science-features-in-new-bbc-earth-video/

    Or, it may make you weep – again.

    sigh…

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    • #
      PeterPetrum

      Thanks Susan. I didn’t weep, but I did groan. You must wonder at times why you bother publishing your own information, when it is totally disregarded.

      10

      • #

        Peter,

        I don’t think it’s being disregarded – at least, not by the the vocal polar bear doom-mongers, who are now being much more careful.

        They know they cannot dismiss my comments and criticisms entirely because I am one of them. They may publicly scoff, like saying I am only an “expert on dead dogs” but they know that other zoologists and biologists pay attention because I make valid scientific points.

        I know I am having an impact and that’s what keeps me going. Stay tuned, I hope, for a journal publication on polar bears that will give me even more of an edge.

        all the best,

        Susan

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  • #
    doubtingdave

    IM sorry but this site is getting really pathetic , I came on and criticized lord MONKTON weeks ago , because he is no better than Alex Jones of Infowars , they both accept that there is a New world order that is trying to take over the world , but because of their faith , they can only go back to the start of political ideology in Victorian times , neither Alex or Christopher Monckton are prepared to look back into their own faith to find the origins of the modern push towards the Global system that we are being drawn into , I’m sorry but how can I trust Lord Monckton when on the one hand he talks about critical thinking and logic whilst only applying his logic where it suits him , my great granddad was a famous pugilist , bare knuckle prize fighter back in Victorian times , he was trained by a Nottingham LAD , that was the sporting hero of his time , his name was William Thompson , locally known as Bendigo , apparently there was a Aussie fighter that was likened to Bendigo , and had a town named after him in Australia , so can you really understand why its difficult for me to believe , as the son of a miner to accept without question , what lord Christopher and his kind are preaching to you

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    • #
      delcon2

      So Dave,why are you here?

      50

      • #
        doubtingdave

        maybe because I thought I could give a different perspective on things , maybe I was wrong , perhaps its because you live in a bubble

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        • #
          toorightmate

          Dear Doubting Dave,
          Our bubble is getting bigger – and no sign of busting.
          Have a nice day old mate.
          Remember, life gives you two chances. The other one is tomorrow.

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    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      Dave. Your complaint seems to be that Monckton ignores your roots. Whereas I, a small time capitalist, find Monckton very sound. More than just sound, his modus operandi is not to preach, but to direct the listener to the relevant information.

      As the son of a miner you should well understand why we have to have unions and the benefits unions can bring for workers. The trouble is that too many of our workplaces have allowed drunkard Marxist demagogues to run their unions. And many of those demagogues are British migrants. I call them and others who behave in a similar fashion Pommie Commies. The result of their harping is that union membership in Australia has never been lower.

      In time better sense should see that recover, but in the meantime, Monckton is building a better world for both of us.

      In Australia we had a very different sense of roots. However with that same set of demagogues running our education system we are in the democratic sense of 50% + 1 collectively fast losing all sense of roots.

      Keep posting.

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      • #
        doubtingdave

        Ted I really appreciate your well thought out reply , look what I’m trying to tell you is that although my back ground as a working class English boy, is very different from Lord Monckton , I really don’t hold that against him , he is a hero of mine ever since the days of Copenhagen , I cannot fault his logic and reasoning when it comes to the climate science debate , I have learnt a lot from him , but I am having doubts with him because he does not use the same logic when he discusses his religious faith , I agree with him that there is an attempt to create a Global new world order , but because of his faith he will not look back past a political ideology to find the roots of the globalist feudal system that we are facing , I can look as far back as the Emperor Constantine and how he set up edicts that began a new religion and at the same time trade edicts that created a feudal system that lasted a thousand years , but Lord Christopher wont do that , because it brings his faith into question , and that in my humble opinion is a flaw in his logic

        23

        • #
          Yonniestone

          Sounds like we need a well grounded Theologist here to delve into your questions, pity its a Sunday (just kidding!)

          I agree we could go back further to the Roman empire where a one world empire (government) idea developed as the empire did, perhaps Europe is simply repeating history and human nature, remember all our actions are based on a personal needs, we wouldn’t do anything unless we determined the action as something we needed.

          Sorry I can’t stick around to discuss further (I’m need elsewhere) but I’m sure the plethora of thinkers here can offer you a decent discourse.

          10

        • #
          Manfred

          When discussing ‘religious faith’ one treads on thin ice. ‘Faith’ is the one passport that permits abject human stupidity without question. It suspends intellect and definitively eradicates ‘science’. Formal testing becomes impossible. DD, if you’re challenging the Good Lord Christopher on what you perceive to be an issue of faith I suspect that you’re wasting your time. Surely, your observation of the Climate Brethren leads you to a similar understanding. I’d also suggest that maybe The Good Lord hasn’t bothered to conduct a rigorous intellectual examination of the issues you raise? Maybe he hasn’t the time! Were I in his position, I doubt very much I’d be concerned about the religious and historical roots of globalisation. Like him, I’d be applying my intellect, contacts, experience and savvy to defeating that which we face now, which is one of several reasons I pay attention to the many and varied offerings from the equally, many and varied correspondents here. I’m sure that is where the valued perspicacity resides. I wish you well.

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        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          The whole truth was ever too long a story. Few have the patience to tell it, none the patience to hear it. But my view of what we see is that Marxism is a doctrine of hate that grew out of the social horrors of nineteenth century Europe. As a doctrine of hate it can never produce a comfortable society.

          When I left school in 1960 farming in Australia was a wonderful place to be, in a land of boundless opportunity. My father had a farm, and I loved the life. I even thought that if I worked hard enough I would be able to pursue other interests on the side. So, instead of taking my talent for scholarship on to university, in 1969 I bought a farm of my own, with help from my parents. Had I gone on to uni you would probably have found me today buried in the bowels of the Physics department, unwashed, unshaven, coming out for an occasional sandwich, building a better bomb.

          Also in 1969 Oxford educated Rhodes Scholar Bob Hawke, son of a parson, took over the leadership of the ACTU. The Australian Council of Trade Unions. The ACTU then, applying the principles I called as Pommie Commie, set about shutting opportunity down. It spent the whole of the 1970s preventing Australian firms from innovating. Ned Ludd reborn. It is hard to find words to describe the squandering of economic opportunity that resulted from this. Opportunity that would have greatly advanced Australian living standards generally, and would also have greatly enhanced Australia’s ability to help others.

          In the meantime we had Whitlam. He had too many Communists in his government. He obsessed about Menzies looking for ‘Reds under the bed”, but was himself looking for the CIA under the bed. The CIA didn’t have to be under the bed. They could do it from their offices in Virginia or wherever. The US without notice in 1974 stopped importing Australian beef, ostensibly to protect US beef producers. This crippled the Australian beef industry and a large part of the rural economy. It caused terrible hardship for our family, broke many families, farm businesses and service providers, and in 1975 Gough lost every rural seat that he had held in the parliament. Which the CIA would have known would result. So we are pawns in somebody else’s game.

          PS. I thought I should read Das Kapital, preferently in German, which would I expect take a month or more to learn, but after a long time downloaded an English copy off the internet. I quickly discovered that it was so heavily into Original Sins that it made Pope Francis sound like Cheerful Charlie. So I set it aside for another day. I’ll wait for time to learn German.

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          • #

            Ted
            “Marxism is a doctrine of hate that grew out of the social horrors of nineteenth century Europe”.
            After the congress of Vienna in 1815 Europe began to enjoy a relative stability. Yes, we had wars, uprisings and the usual killings, but this was nothing different to what was before. What was different was the birth of American democracy and examples of failed democracies in France or even in my native Poland before it was crushed by Russia, Prussia and Austria. People realised that their fate was in their own hands and hence the birth of capitalism and skyrocketing living standards. People worked hard, but at least they knew that they worked for themselves and their own better future.

            I had to read Das Kapital in polish when I enjoyed my early communist paradise and what strucked me about this book was how rigidly this was written. It was a boring and soulless read that drained lots of energy out of me. Really tried to understand the enemy at one stage and realised that it was based on envy and hate, just like you noticed. Furthermore, this was not a liberating book. It was still enslaving humans representing them as soulless cogs in the machine, applying to masses not to inviduality to change the world.

            Marx, an alcoholic supported by a cashed up aristocrat Engels, a collusion of 2 old worlds produced a horror book no different to Mine Kampf or K….n.

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      Yonniestone

      Sorry Dave your post is a bit confusing as it jumps to different subjects without clearly stating what they’re about, many here are fans of Monckton but it doesn’t mean we wouldn’t discuss any apparent flaws in his thinking.

      Give a few links or add further to your ideas, cheers.

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        doubtingdave

        sorry Yonniestone but I think your reply was posted before my own , please re comment now you have seen my reply thanks

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        bobl

        I agree, Monckton is wrong in many ways, his treatment of feedback for one, and he is sometimes slow to pick up offered improvements to his ideas. Monckton though is a political animal, he works within his sphere of his influence, rather than trying to burst the bubble he tries to expand it, until at some point the bubble collapses. From a political point of view that’s wise. So for example in AGW he won’t say the IPCC models need replacing, rather he starts with them and simple shows the errors, that creates a little vaccuum (expands the bubble) that someone has to fill. Problem is that these pockets are often then filled with some other non-physical claptrap (The oceans ate my warming). His hop is that if he expands the bubble to encompass low climate sensitivity he can kill the idea of it being catastrophic.

        Personally I think Monckton is wrong, he needs to attack the moral soapbox that underpins the activists, that fixing CO2 is somehow “Noble”. I think you need to do that by showing the evil of reducing CO2 and therefore food supply – the deliberate attempt to induce a famine by reducing CO2 and restricting electricity use to rich people.

        IE If the UN says that doubling CO2 increases temperature by 3 deg which the IPCC says does no harm, on the same logic halving CO2 to 200PPM would reduce temperature by 3 Degrees and virtually stop C3 plant growth which would probably lead to the death of 90 % of the worlds population – this is the relative position we are in. Reducing CO2 is bad – very bad for us.

        Monckton objections to globalisation are valid, all is fine while you agree with your global world government but what happens when you don’t – if you don’t like your global world government, where do you go then?

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          Raven

          Monckton though is a political animal, he works within his sphere of his influence . .

          Yes, agreed.
          I expect everyone can also appreciate the larrikinism when a member of the aristocracy is happy enough to dress in Arab garb and gate crash the Qatar climate festival.
          Classic.

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          KinkyKeith

          Chris Monckton is a mathematician by training.

          He has done a lot to push back against the far uglier CAGW meme.

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      Analitik

      Dave, have you ever read about Monckton’s involvement with the coal miner’s strike? He may not be the class enemy that you imagine him to be.

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/21/green-war-on-jobs-britains-last-deep-coal-mine-closes/

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      Peter C

      Thanks doubtingdave,

      You have raised this issue of religious faith vs scientific enquiry before, especially as they intersect in the person of Christopher Monckton, Viscount of Brenchley. Like wise I am inclined to revisit the Greenhouse theory fairly regularly and I was going to do so today but I think I will put it off until next week.

      I agree with you that Monckton does not apply his formidable skills in logic to his own religion. In that respect he is like many others including almost all scientists before the mid 20th century. Even Thomas Paine (not a scientist), the author of “The Age of Reason” in which he demolishes both the Old and the New Testament, went to pains (pun) to emphasize his belief in God. It seemed to me that he could not follow his own argument to its logical conclusion.

      I imagine that all of us compartmentalise our various opinions and beliefs so that we can hold two views which might be incompatible at the same time. With respect to religious belief and sceptical science they can be held separately in the same mind, except that one should not be used to prove the other.

      Returning to Christopher Monckton, I am more than happy to read his demolition of climate science one day and then next time read his views about the role of Christianity in the development of western philosophy and society. They are not necessarily incompatible.

      For myself I would have taken the pen name of “stoneyground” but some one else thought of it first. None the less I often attend church and enjoy the ceremony. Christianity has been important in forming our social fabric, although becoming less so. Just today I looked up the Nunc Dimittas which I think I might have as a reading at my funeral.

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        Dean from Ohio

        If our brains are not created and instead evolved by random mutation and natural selection, why would you think they could be reliable reasoning machines? Reason is reliable only in a theistic world view.

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        • #
          Peter C

          Maybe we are not programmed to be a reasoning species. But if we cannot reason then how did the Human Race survive and prosper until now?

          why would you think they could be reliable reasoning machines? Reason is reliable only in a theistic world view.

          How did you come up with that from what I wrote?

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        • #
          AndyG55

          ” Reason is reliable only in a theistic world view”

          roflmao.. It doesn’t seemed to have helped you, Dean.

          00

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          That Mankind’s capacity to think, is due to evolution by random mutation and natural selection, I have no doubt.

          But that is not important.

          It is what we think that is important, and within that realm, the differentiation between demonstrable fact, and intellectual desire. Wishing something to be true, is easy and pleasurable. Proving something to be true is often hard, and fraught with obstacles.

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      Leo Morgan

      Dave, faith in ANY individual is foolish.
      Einstein was wrong about Quantum mechanics.
      Newton was wrong about alchemy.
      Even I once made a mistake, back in 1973 I thought I was wrong, but I was mistaken :)
      It’s NEVER the person; it’s always the evidence and arguments that matters.

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    I wonder if anyone has lately asked Flannery about the dams that won’t fill? And the Victoria Labor government has ordered water from the desal plant, because we are running out of water.

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      redress

      Hi bemused….my thoughts exactly…..Tim Flannery MUST be brought to account somehow.

      Currently raining again in the southern riverina and over eastern Australia we have these flood warnings for the Murray – Darling system:
      Victoria – Murray River catchment-
      Major Flood Warning for the Avoca River, Wimmera River
      Moderate Flood Warning for the Loddon River, Ovens and King Rivers, Murray and Edwards Rivers
      Minor Flood Warning for the Goulburn River, Murray River upstream of Lake Hume, Seven and Castle Creeks

      New South Wales –
      There has been significant rainfall and flooding in the NSW inland catchments over the past month.
      Flood warnings are current for the Darling River system rivers-
      Warrego, Paroo, Macintyre, Gwydir, Namoi, Bogan, Macquarie,
      Murray River System rivers – major flooding in the Lachlan, Moderate flooding in the Murrumbidgee and Murray river valleys.

      If you look at the river system, and where the flood peaks are, then you can see that the river peaks are all set to converge at about the same time – South Australia will be in big trouble in about a month.

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      • #

        And the thing is, most of Victorian dams are being reduced in capacity so that they can cope with the coming influx. Dams like the Glenmaggie in Gippsland has been letting out water for some time for fear of ‘catastrophic wettening’.

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        • #
          Annie

          Sorry Bemused, meant an uptick…screen too easy to knock in the wrong place.

          30

        • #
          AndyG55

          No, they are not being reduced in capacity.

          Wrong word. ;-)

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        • #
          Brian Hatch

          Glenmaggie is tiny, just a large soup bowl. Just a little rain in the Macalister catchment and it is overflowing. It regularly lets water out to avoid flooding, especially at Newry, which is built on the flood plain (unlike all other towns in the area) and floods readily.

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          • #

            Soup bowls are important, but the other important point to note is that Glenmaggie has been releasing water for quite some time, and I believe that others have also, to maintain safety levels. This indicates that we have been receiving plenty of water over winter and the dams have been filling, even if Flannery and the warming worriers believe otherwise.

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            • #
              AndyG55

              How’s the dam on the Mitchell River going..

              Is it nice and full again?? ;-)

              11

            • #
              Peter C

              In the good old days we used to let the dams fill up to the top. The dams have a spillway which protects the dam and prevents it over topping which might damage the dam wall.

              Now days the authorities seem to like to keep the dam below its maximum. That might help to prevent downstream flooding but it means that we don’t get full dams before we go into the next dry period.

              20

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                toorightmate

                All this bloody rain in Western Queensland is playing havoc with our drought assistance payments.

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              • #
                Another Ian

                toorightmate

                Remember Tim Flannery a few years ago telling us that “endless drought was the new normal”?

                My mental picture of him sticking pins into a wax model of a rain gauge has gone to fast forward at 104 mm in four days.

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        Manfred

        I paid a visit recently to an English village in the Chilterns Hills. Most enjoyable it was, along with the ancient stocks still present by the village pond. May I suggest that this delightful contraption of the Middle Ages could offer the perfect venue for vacuous Flannelbags and his cronies? It does indeed furnish a certain ‘Honi soit qui mal y pense’

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      Dennis

      And back before Queensland ordered a desalination plant and there was apparently a water shortage in SEQ the Beatte Labor Government failed to mention a couple of dams in the hinterland full of water.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      Victoria is in flood but Dear Leader Dopey Dan Andrews placed an order of desal water for $27 million of taxpayer funds. This is the first time the plant has produced water since it was finished in 2012. When the plant is not producing, which is pretty well all the time, it still costs $607 million per year to keep in an “at ready” condition. See my letter below about this.

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    • #

      Just imagine how excellent will be the writings of those SJWs emerging from our institutions, having absorbed all the goodness from the their magnificent role models.

      I read Breitbart every day, but the intrusive videos are extremely annoying. And the videos aren’t even relevant to the article in question. What does Breitbart want its readers to do, read the articles or listen to something completely irrelevant?

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      James Murphy

      Now I am a bit lost. As an Australian living in France, what am I supposed to do?

      If I decide that i want nothing whatsoever to do with French culture, language, or food (though it is all inextricably intertwined), then I am:
      a) to be celebrated for preserving my own culture if I am not white, and not from a democratic country with an ostensibly “secular” legal system.
      b) a self-absorbed, selfish, ignorant, intolerant racist because I am white and from an ostensibly secular and democratic country.

      If I decide that I do wish to be involved with French culture, language, and food, then:
      a) it must be the fault of the government, and peer pressure, forcing me to give up my own way of life, if I am not white, and not from a democratic country with an ostensibly “secular” legal system.
      b) a vile and despicable perpetrator of cultural appropriation I am white and from an ostensibly secular and democratic country (even though the 5th French Republic prides itself on secularity).

      Thus, as I am a white male, then it seems as though I am damned if I do, and damned if I don’t… oh well, life goes on.

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  • #
    handjive

    Global Warming temperature ‘homogenisation’ update. Moving the Goalposts. Again. 1910 > 1999
    Australia’s BoM explains:

    “Temperature data prior to 1910 should be used with extreme caution as many stations, prior to that date, were exposed in non-standard shelters, some of which give readings
    which are several degrees warmer or cooler than those measured according to post-1910 standards.”

    >> Fast Forward >> to Senator Malcolm Roberts maiden speech to Australia’s parliament, and the response from the Guardian:

    “The chart below is from a paper published in 1999 discussing this issue and comparing the known global temperature rises with the understanding of
    US temperatures at the time.

    The problem was, records going that far back are based on all sorts of measurements that are difficult to compare – some are taken at different
    times of day or at different altitudes.
    And many locations or times change over the period.”
    . . .
    Yup. Anything prior to 1999 is now “unreliable” and in need of ‘homogenisation’.

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      handjive

      x!@x … “curses” … x!@x … forgot link.
      The Guardian: Debunking Malcolm Roberts: the case against a climate science denier
      ~ ~ ~
      Whilst I’m here, there is another quote, re: the pause;

      “Of course, choosing a record hot year as your starting point is cheating – just as choosing a record cold year would be.”

      Wait. What?

      realclimate.org; Evaluating a 1981 (Hansen’s) temperature projection

      “At a time when the northern hemisphere was cooling and the global mean temperature still below the values of the early 1940s, they confidently predicted a rise in temperature due to increasing CO2 emissions.”

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      ianl8888

      … readings
      which are several degrees warmer or cooler than those measured according to post-1910 standards

      That’s post-modern data for you. It is just obvious that earlier measurements were wrong by several degrees; wrong in which direction is a matter of expert manipulation and not for the hoi-polloi to know.

      Astonishing …

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      Ted O'Brien.

      1991 here.

      BUT.

      Isn’t their worry all about anomalies? Not the actual numbers at all, but the variations from day to day.

      So you don’t have to have an accurate thermometer, just the same thermometer.

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      handjive

      One more link:

      Unsettled Malcolm Roberts queries United Nation’s science
      By John Nicol and Jennifer Marohasy – posted Friday, 16 September 2016
      http://onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=18525

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      James Murphy

      One general question I ask those who seem to think it’s acceptable to change existing data to suit a desired outcome:
      If the uncertainty on older measurements is as large as is claimed by the BOM, how can any adjustments in any direction be considered viable and legitimate? Do you think the BOM can really define an envelope of uncertainty for this data?

      The usual answer: nothing resembling a robust cohesive argument, even from people who should know better.

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    • #
      Dennis

      “Mr Cleary saw new towns in the Riverina having 10,000 jobs and a population of 20,000 to 25,000 at the time they link to railway.

      He said the “burden of growth” and potential opposition were the primary reasons for wanting new towns to house stations.”

      I understand that the longer term projections for population increase in Australia will result in existing existing provincial cities expanding to populations of around one million people.

      30

      • #
        AndyG55

        That will mean the necessity for more dams to provide water.

        And more coal fired power stations to provide power.

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      • #
        AndyG55

        Ironical really.

        The Green’s fast train idea MUST lead to dam construction and new coal/gas power stations.

        Time for them to GET OUT OF THE WAY, and let Australia PROGRESS.

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        • #
          el gordo

          In the short term they only need to make the dam walls higher, but we’ll definitely require state of the art coal fired power stations to carry base load.

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        • #

          The Greens’need ter return ter
          their environmental niche …
          safe places, paid enclaves in
          tax haven’d academia.

          A (disillusioned)serf

          20

      • #
        Geoff Sherrington

        If the trains are to stop at all these little towns it will no longer be a high speed train,??

        50

        • #
          el gordo

          Geoff they are looking at VFT as a way to decentralise, self contained satellite cities in the outback connected by fast rail and fast computer speeds.

          Victoria will probably be the first with concrete plans, after they received a financial bonus from the leasing of Port Melbourne.

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    • #
      Analitik

      They are agreements on terms for prospective purchases so not even that.

      As for the whole CLARA VFT/Smart Cities concept

      Cr Osborne noted Greater Hume’s entire population was 10,500 and she believed there would be little objection from existing towns

      She believes… I doubt the town folk in the area are as stupidly naive as this – they will see that their towns would be sucked empty of income, funding and, eventually, population and turned into ghost towns if the CLARA vision came to pass.

      But it won’t – if it got funded, we would end up with situations like China’s and Spain’s where vast amounts of infrastructure are built to drive economic “growth” yet languish idle and unoccupied with no prospect of a return for investors.

      But the best news is that even this catastrophe will not happen since the CLARA plan is a rolling Ponzi scheme, relying on “value capture”.

      Value capture is the use of proceeds from the uplift in value of land that comes from transport and other infrastructure being built nearby. Value Capture allows for part of the land value uplift to partly or wholly fund physical and social infrastructure. It is known in many forms of taxes, charges, duties, levies and private contributions.

      http://www.clara.com.au/funding-the-clara-plan.html

      Of course The Greens have already called for governments to fund a VFT which is what CLARA is probably banking on – get it started and then government bailout for its position once it is obvious it will fail.
      http://www.afr.com/business/transport/land-boom-deals-to-fund-200b-fast-rail-smart-cities-corridor-20160714-gq5q1w

      The only guaranteed outcome of CLARA is (more) massive debt to burden the economy for future generations – a truly Marxist vision that the left would have us all embrace.

      Imagine new cities where data is open, energy’s renewable, water is valued, homes are affordable and people can live within 10 minutes of all they need. Cities where world class healthcare meets high tech education. Where new and existing businesses will converge to create more vibrant regional economies. Cities built to unlock all human potential.

      http://www.clara.com.au/smart-cities.html

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        el gordo

        ‘…a truly Marxist vision that the left would have us all embrace.’

        That’s true, I rather like the five year plan.

        20

      • #
        bobl

        Guilded cages walling off humanity from the big bad world. I find it ironic that the Greens solution to humans degrading nature is to cage humanity off into enclaves ignorant of nature – the nature disconnected inner city elites that spend their time trying to lecture farmers how ecology works are bad enough already on ecology, without caging off and turning the rest of humanity into nature ignoramuses.

        40

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      I used to equate this talk with the Tower of Babel. Then I discovered there are no mountains between Junee and Melbourne, and I don’t know how far north of Junee. So it might not be as silly as I thought. Especially if the speed was reduced a bit. How much advantage does 300 km/h have over 200 km/h? There would be a dramatic increase in cost to get that extra 100.

      But this is surely just kite flying. Somebody trying to steal a march on the rest. Even creating a scheme which can be sold before it fails.

      50

      • #
        el gordo

        Its more than kite flying if the consortium is backed by Beijing.

        30

        • #
          Analitik

          Beijing is feeling the pinch from its attempt to forestall economic reality. They have enough issues without funding offshore white elephants

          http://joannenova.com.au/2016/09/weekend-unthreaded-134/#comment-1838176

          30

          • #
            el gordo

            Nevertheless they intend to push ahead and save capitalism.

            https://emergingequity.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/new-silk-road.jpg

            20

            • #
              Analitik

              You really need to change the tint of your glasses. Rose is so 2008

              30

              • #
                ROM

                Analitik @ # 9.3.1.1

                “Beijing is feeling the pinch from its attempt to forestall economic reality.”

                Beijing feeling the pinch“?

                Seems like you might have possibly understated somewhat there Analitik!

                Via Paul Homewood’s “Not a Lot of People Know That” blog and this is not to be sneezed at money involved.
                ——–
                Reuters;

                China clean energy generators face $9 bln subsidy shortfall -official. ie; 60 billion Yuan;

                China is struggling to pay billions of yuan in subsidies to renewable power generators following a rapid expansion of capacity, a planning agency official said this week.

                Wind and solar power capacity has grown faster than expected in the last five years because of preferential policies that include higher tariffs paid for cleaner electricity, as the world’s biggest coal consumer tries to encourage alternative forms of energy.

                A fundamental characteristic of every Government and bureaucracy that has ever existed, its called the “Law of Unintended Consequences

                In the overall scheme of things, 9 billion USD out of an estimated PRC expenditure of nearly 2.5 trillion USD doesn’t amount to much.

                But the fact that the subsidies haven’t been paid when due and some are apparently long overdue, leads to some very murky thinking.
                Such financial shenanigans almost invariably signal the end and near or total collapse of the entity involved leaving a very sour taste, often the only taste for everybody in any way involved.

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              • #
                Analitik

                I prefer to understate the case and let the facts pull in the full implications. See my comment http://joannenova.com.au/2016/09/weekend-unthreaded-134/#comment-1838176

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              • #
                ROM

                Not only China.

                I build and sell treadle type sheet steel chook feeders and wire mesh sparrow traps to supplement our pension.
                As somebody who has always been of an independent outlook, I never wanted to be on the pension but thats the deal life has dealt out to my wife and myself so I’m grateful for that pension.

                Most of my sale efforts are at the local Farmer’s Markets in a 100 km radius around Horsham.

                Today [ Sunday 18 Sept ] was the Nhill market, a small market but a typical market for a moderately sized Victorian rural industry dominated town.

                There were few people, not much interest, even the Stall holder numbers were down and I had no sales where I would normally expect to sell a feeder or two plus a couple of traps.
                Other Stall holders had similar poor sales results even though the market being in the middle of town and on the main Adelaide to Melbourne Highway, a lot of travellers stopped for a half an hour or so to look at the market and get a coffee.

                I talked to a stall holder who also works in a Horsham bakery shop, which is just about as a regular for purchasing essential family needs one could expect to find.

                Sales are very slow she told me and as I have observed locally, still plenty of vehicles in the streets but few are buying in the shops.

                A local city white goods store of many years standing and a good reputation closed down the other week.
                Just another in a whole string of small and medium sized retail outlets that have closed down locally over the last year or so.

                Some of this is due to the very bad run of seasons and low prices received by the farming community that Horsham and the rural towns rely on.
                A couple of years ago I spent quite a lot of time working out very roughly the amount of money the farming community puts through Horsham’s [ 13,000 city population ] businesses each year.

                Around here it costs at an absolute minimum, drought type basic only financing, about $700 / hectare to run a farm for the year including everything such as the farm family’s living expenses and etc..

                Grain farms run very roughly 1000 to 2000 Hectares in size in the west Vic’s Wimmera.

                A lot of research on arable acreage’s around Horsham and the numbers of farmers, less than 400 in the municipality of 18,000 people now plus all those farming families who come to Horsham on a regular or irregular basis to shop and do business from about a 100 plus kilometres around and the absolute minimum of the farm originated dollars channeled through Horsham businesses each year comes out at around $400 million.
                And thats at the local Farm’s barely sustainable financial operating levels only.

                Given a good season and that figure will rise to the $600 to $700 million or more channelled through Horsham’s business during that year and season.
                Likewise with every other town and city throughout Australia’s rural industry reliant heartland.

                Give the farmers a run of reasonable seasons and reasonable prices and they will channel probably close to a billion dollars through Horsham’s business during then year as they replace machinery and vehicles [ a large later model harvester now costs close to 3/4's of a million dollars. And thats only one major machine that has an economic life of perhaps a decade on a large property ] and buy those small items and little pleasures for Mum and the kids that they have put off through the bad years.

                The local multiplier for the farmer dollar is probably around two to one.
                For each farm generated dollar the farmers put into the city, another dollar is generated in the Horsham city businesses.

                And of course almost all of this money from rural industries through out Australia eventually finds its way into and through the big city businesses and import and export businesses and the manufacturing and chemical companies as well as the finance and banking sector.

                The overall multiplier effect for each farm dollar earned by farmers particularly from the export of food products that goes into Australia’s economy has been estimated at around 4 to 5 times. ie; each dollar earn’t and spent by farmers generates another 3 to 4 dollars in the rest of the economy as it goes around.

                So the big cities might just brush off the rural towns and cities and the farmers as not relevant to the prosperity of the big city.

                But as one of the underlaying basics of civilisation and national societal and economic welfare, rural industries along with mining and manufacturing these are the real and major generators of genuine wealth and prosperity in any nation.

                When the rural industries are operating in a low economically performing situation such as has been the case here in Australia for a decade and a half past and if the mining industries run into economic troubles then the big cities will really wonder what has hit them and what and why it has all gone so wrong.

                And not many in the big cities today today will know the answer to that!

                It is very wise to always take heed and remember that old bumper sticker exhortation.

                “EVERYTHING begins by being MINED or GROWN.”

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                el gordo

                ‘China has snapped up 20 per cent of Australia’s biggest port, the Port of Melbourne, as part of a $9.7bn privatisation deal unveiled by the Victorian Government today.

                ‘CIC Capital, China’s $200bn sovereign wealth fund, will hold the stake through a fund managed by one of the winning Lonsdale consortium’s members, global fund manager GIC.’

                The Oz

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                Another Ian

                ROM

                No different in western Qld that I’ve seen.

                I was talking to a local service bloke (a real professional) who didn’t chase the oil and gas euphoria. Since it has rained his oil useage has about doubled. As he says you blokes on the land have a bit to spare with current cattle prices for servicing vehicles.

                10

  • #
    el gordo

    Scafetta’s new paper sees the Jovian planets as main drivers of earthly climate.

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2016/09/new-scaffeta-paper-finds-planetary_46.html

    Malcolm Roberts needs to be informed.

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      Manfred

      Truncated from abstract at Earth-Science Reviews:

      An oscillation with a period of about 2100–2500 years, the Hallstatt cycle, is found in cosmogenic radioisotopes (14C and 10Be) and in paleoclimate records throughout the Holocene. This oscillation is typically associated with solar variations, but its primary physical origin remains uncertain. Herein we show strong evidences for an astronomical origin of this cycle.

      This oscillation is coherent to a repeating pattern in the periodic revolution of the planets around the Sun: the major stable resonance involving the four Jovian planets – Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune – which has a period of about p = 2318 years.

      The orbit of the planetary mass center (PMC) relative to the Sun is used as a proxy. We found that it undergoes a kind of pulsations and clearly presents rhythmic contraction and expansion patterns with a 2318 year period together with a number of already known faster oscillations associated to the planetary orbital stable resonances. At the Hallstatt-cycle time scale, a larger production of radionucleotide particles occurs while the Sun-PMC orbit evolves from more elliptical shapes (e ≈ 0.598) to more circular ones (e ≈ 0.590).

      This 2318 year oscillation is found to be spectrally coherent with the Δ14C Holocene record with a statistical confidence above 95%, as determined by spectral analysis and cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis.

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    handjive

    Big Fat Myths: When you lose weight, where does the fat go?

    After a Wikipedia-fuelled crash course in the hieroglyphics of biochemistry I eventually managed to follow all the convoluted pathways, and the answer turned out to be the most enlightening and motivating weight-loss fact I have ever heard.

    Fat turns into carbon dioxide and water, and nothing else. You can summarise the entire process like this: Fat + oxygen = carbon dioxide + water.

    Two of the most familiar and ubiquitous chemical substances on Earth also happen to be the ultimate destination for all our unwanted flab. Who knew?

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    Manfred

    Yup. Anything prior to 1999 is now “unreliable” and in need of ‘homogenisation’.

    Does this apply to those of us born before 1999?

    “Temperature data prior to 1910 should be used with extreme caution as many stations, prior to that date, were exposed in non-standard shelters, some of which give readings which are several degrees warmer or cooler than those measured according to post-1910 standards.”

    The counterpoint to this is that ‘Official’ temperature data post-1910 (BoM, et al) are unimpeachable. Adjusted and smoothed to near perfection they have been funded to retrospectively fit the political meme. Nevertheless, in reality they remain open to the challenge of bias and uncertainty. Take for example the case of arriving taxiing aircraft at Heathrow, here, and here.

    Bias associated with parking lot temperatures, the Systematic Error in Surface Temperature Measurements, and so on, serve to illustrate the role of Institutionalised temperature data adjustment in ensuring the data is homogenised with the politics and free from uncertainty.

    In reality however, they succeed only in betraying themselves and demeaning science. If you have any doubts, recall if you will the attempt to expunge the Medieval Warm Period.

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      bobl

      Homogenisation didn’t do milk any good either in my opinion, would rather have the old-fashioned type with the cream floating on top – Yum.

      40

      • #
        Annie

        We can get that around here, the only snag being the drippy nature of the pouring opening. It’s ‘Paul’s Pure Organic Unhomogenised Full Cream’ milk in one litre cartons. It’s in our local Foodworks and I have also found it in Coles and Woollies too.

        20

      • #
        Manfred

        Homogenisation evokes all sorts of tricky questions. For example, what happens when one homogenizes ‘cis’ and ‘trans’ gender varieties? … a ‘racey’ mixture?

        20

  • #
    David Maddison

    My letter to my Victorian (Liberal) state parliamentary “representative”.

    Hi ***,

    Desal plants are a license to burn taxpayer money and a goldmine for unions. In regard to the Wonthaggi plant it was outrageous that the unions managed to have it classified as a “remote area” and were getting paid $200,000 per year as a result despite it being only 10 minutes drive to the nearest town of over 20,000 people.

    While I don’t know the specifics of this plant, I was alarmed to read that this unused and unnecessary plant (built based upon non-scientific advice) cost $607 million per year to be kept in an “at ready” state?

    It just doesn’t add up. I heard that it was partially owned by union super funds, so if that is true, this is an excellent way to launder funds from the taxpayer to the unions. I think this needs to be investigated.

    Please let me know what, if anything, you intend to do about it.

    Kind regards,

    Dr David Maddison

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    David Maddison

    Regarding Australia spending $50 billion on submarines:

    A$50 billion for 12 boats is A$4.2 billion per copy. The US Virginia class nuclear subs with a 33 year fuel supply cost just A$3.6 billion a piece.

    I’m sure that if we ordered Virginia class we’d also get a discount for a dozen.

    Some say we’d need a nuclear industry to support them. No we wouldn’t. They only need refueling every 33 years and by then it would be time to trade them in for new ones.

    Diesel subs maybe more stealthy but have extremely limited range. We could buy a couple of them for the scenarios where speed and endurance are not necessary.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine

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    • #
      Analitik

      I thought the Virginia’s were fuelled for life with a one off reactor load.

      Nuclear expertise would be required to run them so some local nuclear infrastructure would be needed for training purposes if nothing else but I don’t see that as a bad thing.

      10

      • #
        David Maddison

        Yes, they are fuelled for life hence my comment of only needing refueling every 33 years which is their effective service life.

        As for nuclear infrastructure and expertise, we have Lucas Heights.

        I can see no problem training people in their operation and maintenance.

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          Analitik

          Lucas Heights is only a research and isotope production reactor facility. To properly train submarine reactor operators for maintaining and controlling the power production, at least one PWR facility would be needed.

          Again, I don’t see this as a bad thing

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            Ted O'Brien.

            I wondered if the possibility of switching to nuclear might have been the reason for choosing the French submarine.

            As for training. Surely the manufacturers provide that.

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        33 years is pretty good for something rusting like hell!

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    Analitik

    There was some discussion a few weeks back about the catastrophic effects on economies that are being setup by the ridiculous economic policies that have been implemented by central banks since 2008. Quantitative easing, negative interest rates and purchasing of government bonds are just fuelling a new investment bubble, drawing economies into ever increasing debt with “emergent green technologies” joining traditional infrastructure as white elephant investments from which there is no prospect of any return.

    I opined that it may be time to liquidate traditional investment holdings such as stocks, bonds and real estate for a position in gold as a hedge against the inevitable currency devaluations. Well it seems David Stockman is thinking along the same lines.

    http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/usa-watchdog-interview-current-stock-and-bond-bubbles-much-worse-than-1929/

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      bobl

      I remember you when you were pro-AGW alighting on Jo’s blog determined that we were all wrong…. Ahh Nostalgia.

      Anyway, while I think it’s a risk, if that were going to happen then we would see hyperinflation as the liquidity was introduced. The scenario you outline would necessarily cause high inflation, we haven’t seen that yet. Providing the reins are pulled in at the right time WRT inflation I think a credit squeeze and depression can be avoided. The problem at the moment is that the liquidity being introduced is being used to buttress against losses (defensively). Governments need to deploy that liquidity in ways to reignite trade and consumption. Installing bulk coal electricity infrastructure across the third world would be a good way to do that. Pouring billions into “saving CO2″ and cutting energy consumption cost is defensive – on the savings side of the ledger. Little of the stimulus and government regulation and spending (IE in the US Obama’s EPA) is expansive. Noone is spending to build anything anyone actually wants except maybe the NBN and frackers.

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        Analitik

        I guess you did not see through the sarcasm/irony in some of my posts to come to that conclusion. During my active time on this blog, I have never believed in CAGW (minor AGW is something I am willing to accept if it could be demonstrated). Neither have I ever believed in the ability of renewables to be of any real use at the utility level nor that government intervention in markets is in any way desirable.

        I can play proponent for any of these positions because I take the time to understand the arguments used to promote them. That is the best way to counter a false proposition and why I play around with renewables in particular because the lies are most effectively exposed if you fully understand them.

        What you state is true. Hyperinflation SHOULD occur given all the issuing of currency around the world but the case of Japan is a good indication of what happens when money is continually dumped into a market to ward off a recession – you get a stagnating economy where assets get devalued but since the money is tied up in useless, non-performing loans, the devaluation isn’t fully felt. But real growth stops and is put into limbo.

        Japan has been sitting in stagflation since he 1990′s and the rest of the industrialised world caught up and surpassed it in GDP per capita. The problem is that the music kept playing and partying kept going long after a general correction was due (probably around 2004) as everyone played the Keynesian hand of priming the pump to ensure “growth” at all costs. The world is currently in stagflation and this time, China has joined the party. There is no bailout coming for the next loss of confidence when the devaluation will be felt and inflation will soar.

        NBN, frackers, wind farms, PV farms, CST farms, battery banks – all are getting funding here. In China, they have the same plus UHVDC links, artificial cities with connecting railways, highways and airports (sounds like CLARA, eh?), not to mention the spending for the artificial islands in the South China Sea. All of this has been funded on credit with the non-performing loans increasingly refinanced on the short term money market.

        Much as I hate to admit it but Paul Keating was correct is stating that 1990 was the recession that we had to have. At least then, the interest rates had soared but the market failed to notice because they thought “this time it’s different”. The market was wrong and we went through the pain of a recession.

        This time it’s no different to the other times, except that it has been delayed and delay => further pain. It will be worse.

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          Analitik

          the case of Japan is a good indication of what happens when money is continually dumped into a market to ward off a recession

          Sorry, this statement should have been

          the case of Japan is a good indication of what happens when money is continually dumped into a market to ward off a recession and the fear of defaults remains low

          It is the faith of the international investment community in the underlying strength of the Japanese economy and industries that has prevented hyperinflation there. The investors in the Yen and Japanese bonds have faith that the government and companies that have issued bonds will not default on them so there has not been a mass selloff to reveal the devaluation. Few other nations have a government and large corporations that are respected to the same degree and at some stage, the faith in one of them will fail, a run will begin and all will be exposed as being in the same position

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    clipe

    So he has just disappointed, week after week, the frenzied press lynch mob that had implied he was a racist, a misogynist, an inciter of violence, a vulgar buffoon, a member of the Flat Earth Society, an advocate of an automatic firearm for every white seven-year-old American, and probably an enemy of fluoridated drinking water.

    Conrad Black

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    GrahamP

    Analitik,

    A subject that I take a lot of interest in since half our retirement income is generated by our investments which are held outside the superannuation system.

    My view is that if the worst comes to the worst then it won’t matter what asset you are holding because it too will become “worthless”, be it precious metals, stocks, bonds or cash.

    I remember watching a tv program many years ago about the collapse of Argentina and one of the people in the show was a retired teacher who had lost all her savings. She survived by doing a bit of part time coaching.

    So in the end the only thing of real value is something you can trade or sell eg a skill or something you can make or something you can grow.

    In the meantime best ignore the “sell sell sell” articles you linked to.

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      GrahamP

      This was supposed to be a reply to #15

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      Analitik

      GraemeP, the situation you describe is one where the concept of money entirely collapses due to fll distrust and the economy devolves back to bartering. This is hugely inefficient for many reasons which is why I don’t see it happening.

      As long as there is to be anything beyond bartering, money is some sort will be used, even if it is privately issued. A valued commodity as an exchange medium is the best way to ensure confidence in the concept of money, especially if the issuer is held fully liable for any notes issued in lieu of such.

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      Analitik

      GraemeP, the situation you describe is one where the concept of money entirely collapses due to fll distrust and the economy devolves back to bartering. This is hugely inefficient for many reasons which is why I don’t see it happening.

      As long as there is to be anything beyond bartering, money is some sort will be used, even if it is privately issued. A valued commodity as an exchange medium is the best way to ensure confidence in the concept of money, especially if the issuer is held fully liable for any notes issued in lieu of such.

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    pat

    15 Sept: WolfStreet: Don Quijones: “Where’s the Money Gone?” Rescue of Spain’s Biggest-Ever Corporate Bankruptcy Stumbles in Mexico
    Fleeced Mexican investors against big banks, hedge funds.
    After nine months of fraught negotiations with its senior creditors, Spain’s teetering green-energy giant Abengoa is tantalizingly close to a financial fresh start. In August, the firm announced that it expects to win the approval of at least 75% of its creditors for a restructuring plan by September 30. The banks and hedge funds that own most of its debt are already on board.
    But not everyone’s convinced. The company’s B-shares have barely budged from the €0.20 level since the announcement. As WOLF STREET reported a couple of weeks ago, the US rating agency Moody’s played down the restructuring plan’s chances of success, citing three main causes for concern:…
    As Guerra asserts, “the only people who are going to be paid are Spanish creditors while Mexican creditors are hung out to dry.”
    Yet no matter how much Abengoa’s Mexican creditors scream, shout and stamp their feet, it’s unlikely to make any difference to the ultimate outcome. For the fact of the matter is that Abengoa’s biggest creditors, including some of the world’s biggest banks (Santander, Citi, HSBC, Credit Agricole, Bank of America…) and hedge funds (AbramsCapital, Canyon Partners, D.E. Shaw, Ellliot Management, Oaktree…) have already signed along the dotted line. And it is their word that ultimately matters.
    http://wolfstreet.com/2016/09/15/wheres-the-money-gone-rescue-of-spains-biggest-ever-corporate-bankruptcy-stumbles-in-mexico/

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    pat

    17 Sept: Motley Fool: Travis Hoium: Is SunPower the Next Horrific Solar Bankruptcy or Just Misunderstood?
    A dive into SunPower’s financials shows where the company’s risk really lies.
    If one only follows stock prices, SunPower looks like a solar company that should be lining up a bankruptcy filing any day now. The stock cratered after the second-quarter 2016 earnings report (covered here) and has accelerated its slide this week. The question is: Is SunPower really close to bankruptcy, or does the market have this stock wrong?…
    When solar manufacturers have gone bankrupt, it’s been primarily because they borrowed money to build out manufacturing capacity and then didn’t generate the cash flow, or gross margin, they needed to justify the investment. Eventually they were done in by investors lacking interest to provide new debt and/or equity to stay afloat. In an environment of falling solar-panel costs, you can see how that could happen. Suntech Power, LDK Solar, and Energy Conversion Devices are just a few companies done in by this phenomenon…
    The more recent challenge solar companies have run into is a continual need of financing that eventually breaks down…
    what did in SunEdison and is currently haunting SolarCity…
    The core of the problem when solar companies go bankrupt is really about too much debt. And with $2.04 billion in debt, it looks like SunPower has a real problem on its hands…
    On May 4, SunPower entered into a revolving credit facility with Mizuho and Goldman Sachs for up to $200 million at LIBOR plus 1.5%. That’s an incredibly low rate when you consider that on the same day SolarCity entered into a revolving aggregation credit facility at LIBOR plus 3.25%…READ ON
    http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/09/17/is-sunpower-the-next-horrific-solar-bankruptcy-or.aspx

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    pat

    fun checking out some of the hundreds of comments, not all sceptical:

    17 Sept: UKSpectatorBlog: Brendan O’Neill: Sarkozy is sceptical about climate change? String him up
    Prepare the stake, stoke the fire: someone has blasphemed against climate-change orthodoxy. The speech criminal in question is Nicolas Sarkozy. Yes, the former president of France, a man who really ought to know better, has wondered out loud if mankind is solely responsible for climate change. Cue media fury. Cue eco-outrage. Cue accusations that Sarkozy has gone ‘beyond the limits of decency’. Cue an atmosphere that’s almost medieval, which basically tells Sarkozy, and by extension everyone, that you cannot say things like that. You probably shouldn’t even think them.
    The swiftness and ugliness of the response to Sarkozy’s comments confirm that questioning climate change is to the 21st century what querying the divinity of Christ was to the 14th…READ ON
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/sarkozy-sceptical-climate-change-string/

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      TdeF

      “our ‘developed societies’ have been ‘built on a pact between scientists and politicians’ and Sarkozy risks breaking this pact.” How true.

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    pat

    thought this might be a joke:

    18 Sept: DailyTimesPakistan: UN report points out curricula without climate change lessons
    * Underdeveloped countries asked to incorporate climate change subject
    PESHAWAR: The United Nation member countries said that if educational progress and literacy rate continuously show decline in underdeveloped countries, there are chances of future disaster-related calamities would increase by 20 per cent per decade.
    United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) report has claimed that outcome of the climate change around the globe has put almost every society at the verge of risk. It stated that those countries where curricula of education institutions are barren from climate change lessons, would face sever environment fatalities.
    The consultation of the international community has pointed out, the fragile condition of the underdeveloped countries such as Pakistan could be turned more harmful if it has no agenda to incorporate climate change subject in their education curricula. The awareness among the school goers has produce outstanding result in time of unwanted and natural calamities the report read…
    The leaders of the world have agreed that school is the only formal place where society can train their children as a future force to cope with climate challenges and can find plausible solution to leave a safe planet for next generation.
    ***”Broadening access to education is more effective against climate change effects than investment in infrastructure such as sea walls and irrigation systems”. the report reads…
    http://dailytimes.com.pk/khyber-pakhtunkhwa/18-Sep-16/un-report-points-out-curricula-without-climate-change-lessons

    UNESCO date of publication, found elsewhere, is apparently 5 September 2016:

    PDF: 63 pages: UNESCO: GLOBAL EDUCATION MONITORING REPORT SUMMARY: EDUCATION FOR PEOPLE AND PLANET: CREATING SUSTAINABLE FUTURES FOR ALL
    The GEM Report is funded by a group of governments, multilateral agencies and private foundations and facilitated and supported by UNESCO…
    Page 5: Foreword by Jeffrey D. Sachs, Special Adviser to the UN Secretary-General on the Sustainable Development Goals
    Page 12: COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE REQUIRES AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO LEARNING
    Education enhances people’s resilience to climate-related risks. It also encourages their support for and involvement in
    mitigation actions.
    ***Broadening access to education is more effective against climate change effects than investment in infrastructure such as sea walls and irrigation systems. Female education reduces disaster-related fatalities. Projections show that if education progress stalled, future disaster-related fatalities would increase by 20% per decade. Communities most at risk from climate-related events are generally in countries where educational attainment is low and unequal…
    http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0024/002457/245745e.pdf

    earlier commentary, worth a read:

    13 April: TheNewAmerical: Alex Newman: UN Pushes Common Core-style Global Education Regime
    http://www.thenewamerican.com/culture/education/item/20657-un-pushes-common-core-style-global-education-regime

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    Oliver K. Manuel

    I agree with Jon Rappoport, “A world hangs in the balance!”

    https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2016/09/16/a-world-hangs-in-the-balance/

    Society was isolated from reality eighty years ago by an error in the definition of “nuclear binding energy.” The slope of the baseline across the top of Figure 2 shows the exact bias in the Bethe-Weizsacker’s definition of nuclear binding energy:

    http://www.journalijar.com/article/11650/neutron-repulsion–social-costs-from-overlooking-this-power/

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    KinkyKeith

    Well this is an interesting thread. At the start we have Roy and interesting comments that follow. Then down to the kick at Lord Monckton.

    He’s a mathematician so don’t expect absolute perfect science.

    But his heart, and he has a big heart, is certainly in the right place.

    All in all a very lively start to Sunday.

    Thank you all.

    KK

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      KinkyKeith

      Forgot to mention that I needed a break last week and went to see a movie for the first time in a couple of years.
      It was Sully.

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        Yonniestone

        We saw it also KK, loved it, quite the change from Hollywood political tripe.

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          KinkyKeith

          That’s why I mentioned it.

          Of particular interest was that my wife and I, when in New York about 2009, walked down to the riverside,on the 4th of July, so we are familiar with that stretch of water.

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            Yonniestone

            What really struck us was just how calm Captain Sully and his co pilot were, it was proven beyond a doubt his actions saved the passengers and people on the ground from a terrible fate, Clint Eastwood made sure the event sequences were filmed to the exact time of the flight down to the second, this alone highlighted the quick thinking of this extraordinary man.

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              James Murphy

              Not the same situation at all, but via the usual circuitous means, I found this video of a Swissair flight crew dealing with an overheating engine in an Airbus A340. Apparently it was a coincidence that the flight was being filmed for a TV series.

              https://youtu.be/rEf35NtlBLg

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    Another Ian

    “Z-Man on the ongoing disappearance of mainstream media comment sections:”

    More at

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2016/09/sparing-their-b.html

    and comments

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      Yonniestone

      I’ve noticed this also, our local Fairfax paper is but a shadow of what it was even 10 years ago, online commentary was being censored around that time to the point that I haven’t bothered to try posting for 3 years, even the PC faithful don’t bother anymore with the resulting no comment function under 99% of stories or letters.

      I rather suspect the staffing numbers are so low they simply don’t have the people to devote time to maintain any online discussion, the new building they moved into is a lot smaller than the old one which was the case for all Fairfax offices at the start of the year.

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      James Murphy

      It could well be a case of confirmation bias, but I have long held the view that the ABC allowed comments on selected articles which they knew would generate a lot of anti-(liberal) government rants. This was most noticeable when Abbott was PM, and really, I’ve given up noticing if they even allow comments anywhere any more, because, well, it’s the ABC, and I have enough to worry about without overly concerning myself with ongoing, and increasing bias at the national broadcaster.

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    The Marmot

    I have struck a problem. Debating climate change with a true believer in AGW, I made the point that there is no demonstrable empirical evidence that CO2 causes global temperatures to increase. Then later in the discussion I mentioned that it was generally agreed that atmospheric CO2 would increase global temps logarithmically, and that CO2 would have to double every time to achieve an increase of a further one degree rise. This caused the acquaintance to to reply “So you DO believe then that CO2 is empirically proven to cause global temperatures to rise after all. I suppose he has a point. Where did I go wrong? Don’t want to get caught like that again.

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      Peter C

      Marmot,

      You went wrong here:

      I mentioned that it was generally agreed that atmospheric CO2 would increase global temps logarithmically

      That is the argument from consensus. I think it is a principal of science that consensus is meaningless. Predictions from theory which come true are everything.

      Then your adversary says:

      “So you DO believe then that CO2 is empirically proven to cause global temperatures to rise after all.

      Two problems here. 1. Belief has nothing to do with it and 2. General agreement about anything is not empirical evidence.

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        The Marmot

        Yes but the statement that the relationship between CO2 and global temperature change being logarithmic is is well established. Here’s one from WUWT for example (the first I could find after a quick Google)
        :
        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/08/the-logarithmic-effect-of-carbon-dioxide/

        So I can’t see that it’s based on either consensus or belief. And is it not a fact that without a bit CO2 hanging around the planet would freeze? I’ve been confident that these are established facts and I have been using them to counter the arguments from warmist acquaintances for years.

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          Peter C

          David Archibald and Willis Eschenbach said:

          But the relationship isn’t linear, it is logarithmic. In 2006, Willis Eschenbach posted this graph on Climate Audit showing the logarithmic heating effect of carbon dioxide relative to atmospheric concentration:

          Did they give a reference? I did not see it. So how is it well established? I assume that it is a view based on measurements of CO2 absorption and emmittance. As far as I know there is NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE for the proposition that CO2 has a heating effect, and if it does have a heating effect that the heating is logarithmic. It is all theory. And unproved theory.

          And is it not a fact that without a bit CO2 hanging around the planet would freeze

          Again, this is Greenhouse Theory! I do not think it is proved nor does it have much supporting evidence.

          David Evans has recognised this and has published a series of articles on this blog in which he proposes an alternative mechanism by which heat can escape from the surface of the Earth.

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            The Marmot

            Don’t know that you are correct there.

            See this paper from Bob Carter and Dr David Archibald.

            Seems to me they are agreeing that CO2 has a logarithmic relationship with warming.

            All I want to be able to do is win the argument when the True Believers start a debate with me. Last time I was left with a bit of egg on my face.

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                Peter C

                Same problem Marmot.

                Archibald again and Bob Carter. “Seems to me they are agreeing that CO2 has a logarithmic relationship with warming.” I respect their opinions but where is the evidence?

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                Peter C

                Alternatively Marmot you can accept that CO2 warms the Earth and the effect is logarithmic (if you like). Then the argument is:
                1. we would not be here without it.
                2. If all the warming since 1880 is due entirely to CO2, then the climate sensitivity to increased CO2 is about 1.5C for every doubling of the CO2 levels from here on.
                3. Warming of 1.5C by the time we reach 560ppm will be minimal and beneficial
                4. Coal and oil will run out before we get to 600ppm

                Patrick Moore has a good essay on the benefits of CO2 and says that we narrowly dodged a bullet because CO2 was approaching critically low levels by 1880. Human burning of fossil fuel has saved the Earth!
                https://fcpp.org/sites/default/files/documents/Moore%20-%20Positive%20Impact%20of%20Human%20CO2%20Emissions.pdf

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                KinkyKeith

                I think you are both right.

                In my poem If it is assumed that we accept the warmers proposition that CO2 is linked to warming. IF that is true THEN CO2 follows the law of diminishing returns.
                Either way, CO2 cannot overheat our planet and they are wrong.
                :-)

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              The effect, the only evidence anyone has is that CO2 at temperatures far from ambient are observed to absorb EMR flux if cold (absorption spectra) or emit if hot (emission spectra) in Earth’s atmosphere temperatures are so similar that only the attenuation of “amplitude modulation” may be measured. These measurements verify that such attenuation is logarithmic with increasing amounts of atmospheric CO2. But attenuation only for the modulation or variance. What the Clowns fail to tell anyone, is that attenuation of surface flux itself cannot be measured or evaluated, as there is no way to distinguish flux generated at the surface from flux generated from the atmosphere. This is but a wee part of the overall SCAM.

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          Graeme No.3

          Beer’s Law or more pedantically the Beer-Lambert Law. Measuring absorption at dilute concentrations doesn’t result in a linear relationship. You should refer to an inverse logarithmic effect as the Believers (or Gullibles) will think about runaway warming.

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    pat

    this week’s UN events promise to be nauseating:

    17 Sept: Australian: AP: UN chief enlists celebs to plead for peace
    At a ceremony on Friday to commemorate the International Day of Peace on September 21, Ban urged all combatants to lay down their arms that day…
    The secretary-general enlisted five UN Messengers of Peace – DiCaprio…etc… to urge preservation of the planet and an end to fighting.
    DiCaprio, who focuses on climate change, showed a short clip from his upcoming documentary on the environment, Before The Flood, to several hundred young people at the student observance of International Peace Day.
    The Academy Award winning actor said he has witnessed “unimaginable human-caused devastation across our planet.”
    He said the potential of hundreds of millions of climate refugees would create “a future that would be anything but peaceful.”
    He urged the students to hold their leaders accountable for the promises they made in last December’s Paris agreement to combat climate change…
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/un-chief-enlists-celebs-to-plead-for-peace/news-story/5ef6dfa25ee156af850ebcf5ee54f112

    17 Sept: Newsday: Zachary R. Dowdy: Obama to join other world leaders for UN General Assembly
    “This challenging environment also provides a window of opportunity as Obama and Ban Ki-moon prepare to leave office,” said Katie Laatikainen, a professor of political science at Adelphi University in Garden City, who said the agreement on climate change is perhaps the best bet for international cooperation.
    “There is great incentive to move this forward, and while there is a great deal of gloom and doom elsewhere in the multilateral landscape, this would be a momentous achievement completed in record time,” she said. “For both Obama and Ban Ki-moon, entry into force of the Paris agreement would be a successful bookend to the beginning of their tenures in office.”…
    “We’re at a critical moment and need immediate action on climate change,” said Peter DeBartolo, director of the Levermore Global Scholars program at Adelphi. “While the United Nations was initially founded to ‘save succeeding generations from the scourge of war’ and this still continues to be one of its primary purposes, last December’s agreement in Paris shows us that the global community now also understands that it must unite today to save succeeding generations from the scourge of possible ecological collapse, as well.”
    http://www.newsday.com/news/world/obama-to-join-other-world-leaders-for-un-general-assembly-1.12331441

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    Raven

    It must be time to reanalyse John Cook’s consensus paper (Cook et al 2013).

    In order to do that we need to be specific about what these climate scientists think they know, as distinct from what they actually know.

    To quote John Cook . .

    “An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public support for climate policy”

    After all, perceptions are everything.

    Given that John Cook and the kids at SkS have kindly done the hard yards assembling the data there seems no need to reinvent that wheel.
    The four categories within the 11,944 papers under consideration are these.

    1. Those who categorically state they reject AGW outright. (78 papers)
    2. Those that have no idea what’s going on with the climate are therefor are correctly considered to take no position (7930 papers) or are uncertain (40 papers). (7930 papers + 40 papers = 7970 papers)
    3. Those that endorse some level of human attribution. (3832 papers)
    4. Those that explicitly consider AGW to be dangerous. (64 papers)

    Self evidently categories 1, 2 and 4 provide a clear indication of their respective positions but we need to further analyse category 3 to ensure clarity.
    In considering category 3, my reasoning would be that they are certainly on board the gravy train but have difficulty being specific. Uncertainty in science is a killer and I concluded we can safely eliminate those papers because they provide no insight and mere endorsement is unscientific in any event.

    Accordingly, I find that 98.25% of scientists have no idea what’s going on with the climate.

    I’m no scientist, but neither is John Cook. As such I’d be pleased if anyone could provide guidance as to where I might apply for a grant and a suitable publication for this work.

    Ultimately I’d like to be reimbursed for the calculator but would settle for a tweet of endorsement from Barry Obama.

    Preliminary peer review by you guys/gals in the interim would be most welcome.
    Thanks in advance.

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    John of Cloverdale WA Australia

    FACT CHECK of a so called “Climate Expert”.
    Ex Climate Commissioner of Australia, Tim Flannery, predictions of a “drying” Australian Continent due to Global Warming.
    (updated from opinions at this link: It pays to check out Tim Flannery’s predictions about climate change
    1) In 2005, Flannery predicted Sydney’s dams could be dry in as little as two years because global warming was drying up the rains, leaving the city “facing extreme difficulties with water”.
    FACT CHECK: Sydney’s dam levels today: 96.3 per cent. Hmm. Not a good start.

    2) In 2008, Flannery said: “The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009.”
    FACT CHECK: Adelaide’s water storage levels today: 91.6 per cent.

    3) In 2007, Flannery predicted cities such as Brisbane would never again have dam-filling rains, as global warming had caused “a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas” and made the soil too hot, “so even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and river systems … “.
    FACT CHECK: the SE Australian river systems today are in flood. Check Brisbane’s dam levels: 80.3 per cent full.

    All this may seem funny, but some politicians, voters and investors have taken this kind of warming alarmism very seriously and made expensive decisions in the belief it was sound.
    It has cost taxpayers over $3 billion dollars to build mothballed desalination plants. Tim Flannery is a fool and anyone who believes this “CO2″ Global warming nonsense is too.
    Note: Dam levels taken from Elders website, yesterday

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      Rod Stuart

      Tim Flannery is a fool

      I wholeheartedly disagree.
      Flabbergasted has made a small fortune out of the gullible establishment.
      Once his only enjoyment in life was to watch porno tree kangaroos.
      By writing a book of BS, he became a celebrity.
      He has made a fool out of half the population, has his own private hooker, and accumulated a king’s ransom in so doing.
      The killing he made on insider trading Geodynamics shares would have put anyone else in the crowbar hotel, but not when he has duped so many powerful people on the gravy train.
      ANYTHING but a fool!

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        Analitik

        It’s the 3rd way

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        TdeF

        A fool as a scientist, not as a carpetbagger. Or as is the inconvenient truth, as much as scientist as Al Gore. However he uses his PhD as an argument that Professor Flannery cannot be wrong on any statement in any science, such as his public opinions on hot rocks (failed and took $93Million of taxpayer money with it) or nuclear power. He has absolutely no qualifications in either. Even on dead kangaroos, he can be dead wrong, like anyone else. However let anyone else have an opinion on the Climate and Professor Flannery would be the first to point out that Ian Plimer was not a meteorologist. Now that is weird.

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          TdeF

          “Even the rain which falls will not fill our dams”. What qualifications did he have to even offer such a silly, wrong opinion? In the case of the Wivenhoe dam, a near tragic opinion. A PhD in dead kangaroos? That makes him qualified in hydrology or geology or even the weather? Of course not. You would be as well off asking Adam Goodes science questions.

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      John of Cloverdale WA Australia

      Yeah, you are absolutely right, Rod Stuart, Flannery is not a ‘fool’. Poor choice of a word, on my part. He benefits, as do many others, like Al Gore, from opportunism.
      [Moderation discretion applied - Fly].

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    David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

    G’day,
    Has anyone found links to any output (video, comments or transcripts) from last weekend’s London conference “New Dawn of Truth”? I have been unsuccessful so far.
    Cheers,
    Dave B

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    Will Janoschka says:
    September 17, 2016 at 11:27 PM

    Mods, please delete from previous thread, if inappropriate!

    Will Janoschka says: September 16, 2016 at 5:01 AM

    “All most no effect of having folk at home in the fall. HA HA. so much for your forlorn fantasy science Dr. Roy.

    Science and engineering, has potential for much! So far such mostly, accrues for illicit profit, and contempt for most clever earthlings. Nither earthlings nor roaches will ever forget just what some academic Skyintests have tried to pull!!”

    All must be exposed as the Climate Clown AlGoreasta horrific SCAM.
    Dr. Roy you willingly participated. Guilty or not. You will be remembered. Children will piss on your grave!

    Will Janoschka says:
    September 17, 2016 at 9:21 PM

    Ha, only six away from thousand! Dr. Roy how ’bouts hunnrt tousand?
    We can start with ‘polite discourse’ about CAGW. With TV and internet now, we can build a Colosseum where the Lion AlGoreistas can politely debate (discourse) with the skeptic ‘slaves’, ha ha! This must soon get to personal hateful insults in every direction. An opportunity for selling many more tickets. You have my bid for the local Beer and Pretzel concession. -will-

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      Peter C

      “The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
      Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
      Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
      Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.”
      Omar Khayyam

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    This is priceless. Salon.com:

    Rise of the right and climate catastrophe: Will Trumpism, Brexit and geopolitical exceptionalism sink the planet?

    [Absolute hoot! Not surprised to find the author is a Professor of peace and world security studies. - Mod]

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      Lionell Griffith

      The sinking of the planet is a statement of a wish supported by fantasy and born out of a totally arbitrary conjecture. All solidly grounded in the conviction that words, definitions, names and equations force reality to obey the miasma of content in what passes for their collective mind. After all 97% of them truly believe that, except for themselves, 97% of the collective truly believes. What could go wrong?

      A snake,
      expecting to get fat,
      is eating its tail.
      No tail.
      No snake.
      No hoot.

      Alice’s Cheshire cat had more substance.

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      Annie

      Reading that makes me doubt their sanity; worrying more than funny. Planet Eaarth is obviously a parallel planet to Earth and inhabited by eco/politico lo0ns.

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      KinkyKeith

      Bout time you learned to stand on your own two feet Rod.

      Work it out for yourself.

      If you can’t do that you are in for a lot of heartache in the future reacting to every over opinionated egotist with an opinion.

      Lot of them around.

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      AndyG55

      Anybody that read all of that load of tripe, must surely now be a more than a little bit dumber. !!

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    ianl8888

    This is what Cassandra means by “the full weight and panoply of the reversal of the Rennaisance”

    http://spectator.com.au/2016/09/the-dangers-of-underestimating-coal/

    Treason is deemed to work only one way – up. I’m aware that Spartacus was reported to die fighting, sliced up piece by piece. So this is how it feels, metaphorically.

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    TdeF

    The question in Australia is what will happen next with this government? The real answer may be nothing at all.

    I believe that Malcolm aided by Mark Textor and Michael Kroeger were doing a preference swap which would have seen the Greens and the Nationals wiped out. It was a master stroke, creating a Green Liberal coalition with the rusted on Conservatives with nowhere to go. Labor and Greens would have swapped places in the lower house, leading to the largest governing majority in history. The Senate too would have been under Malcolm’s control and Richard Di Natalie deputy Prime Minister, with scores of lower house seats.

    However as the deal became more obvious and Malcolm was even moving at least one Green political candidate into the department, people became aware of it. Especially Labor who would put pressure on the Green. The Green rank and file too who would not like what was going to happen with the how to vote cards. In the last week or so, Di Natalie made a weak denial and then finally put it out of the question. Malcolm would have been devastated. He had not even bothered campaigning or coming up with policies, except to say he could put in a Very Fast Train and make it work financially by selling real estate. That was a sure sign he was working with the Greens.

    Then in power by one vote on the world’s worst campaign. Malcolm even had to tip in millions of his own money, probably as a loan. A single Liberal crossing the floor as he did to Abbott and his own side would doom his attempts at Green legislation. If he tries to please the Greens and Labor on same sex marriage or a carbon tax, he will be exposed. The Nationals would revolt. He would be thrown out by his own party. No one will donate to Malcolm’s Liberals either. Who wants to see the money go to repay Malcolm?

    So there he is. Angry. Frustrated. Powerless, the lamest of lame duck Prime Ministers. Anything for which he would take credit was Abbott’s doing. There is no point trying to please the Greens now. They are one vote away from power anyway as was shown in the first week and of course Malcolm did not even think they would try to embarrass him with the one seat majority. Really?

    Now what will happen? Maybe Morrison will continue to negotiate with Labor to rescue some credibility from the budget. The GST was jettisoned. The retrospective attack on people’s savings to fund the government handouts is close to failure. A single false step and Abbott will be back. Then at least Malcolm can cross the floor to defeat Abbott’s government. He would do it, but Abbott might just win the resultant election.

    The most likely result is some pointless legislation and two more years of doing absolutely nothing and keep Abbott on the back bench, his only victory. Lots of dinner parties and visiting politicians though. Those French submarines will never be built. He can always blame Abbott for his failures. Or Labor. Or the Del Cons. Malcolm may be the first PM to check what his super would be if he resigned in a massive show of petulance packaged as strength. Wouldn’t that be loverly.

    [Found this in moderation and I've been over it twice and I don't see anything that would trap it. It isn't supported by anything but your opinion -- no link to anything -- but that in itself shouldn't stop it. So I'm approving it.] AZ

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      TdeF

      Also Malcolm doesn’t need the money or the steady demolition of his image of competence. So he will take the way out which leaves him with the greatest fame and drama, but he will not tolerate another two years of meaningless existence as his once famous popularity bottoms out. The problem was always was that Malcolm was only popular with people who did not vote Liberal. Now no one like him. My prediction then is a giant dummy spit and he came close on election night. Unless he can get his ETS through parliament first and follow Rudd to the UN? That would be worth it all. Perhaps another referendum on the Republic too?

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        TdeF

        No idea what triggered moderation, except perhaps length. My comment was on the lamest duck Turnbull government. I cannot see anything happening and it is the action of governments which is at issue in Global Warming. Apart from handing out cash to his friends and Julie Bishop, Turnbull will not do anything which would cost him his dream job and that means he will not do anything. They even have to negotiate to get a budget through the Senate. Cuts are near impossible as Labor even votes against cuts they proposed but even Labor is starting to think they will have nothing to squander when they get in again.

        Tax increases are the only certainty which is the opposite of Liberal policy. As the government borrows $1Billion a week, soon everything will grind to a halt as the Quangoes set up by the government before the last one keep driving the system. Especially with energy. Meanwhile we hand out billions for Climate Change to help run the myriad tiny countries which inhabit dreamy pacific atolls in Paradise, in competition with the Chinese government. It would be nice to have a real conservative Australian government again, not a powerless one seat kleptocracy.

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          TdeF

          No evidence? Even this morning in the Australian, “Greens-LNP preference deal dismissed”. What deal?

          “The Greens and the Liberal National Party have ruled out preference deals with each other at the next Queensland election, despite Labor fears that such an arrangement could cost the ALP seats in Brisbane.”

          No one else seems to see that the Greens get up to 25% of the vote in some electorates like Melbourne Ports, handing the seat to Labor in every case. The Greens themselves only have one seat in the House of Representatives and all but 8 Labor seats depended on Green preferences. Even a put Labor last policy would kill Labor. This cannot go on, disenfranchising 20% of Australians so Union employees can be automatically put in to parliament.

          This is what Malcolm saw in his backroom dealings, that he could remake the Australian governments and as Union power slipped away from Labor, they could vanish into history, along with the Nationals and the Democrats. Outside the public service only 12% of people belong to Unions. Manufacturing is dead. Many young people are educated at concerned Greens and the tree change older generation are quickly changing seats in Queensland, NSW and Vicotoria. The Greens are the third biggest party in the Senate. You do not have to be a genius like Malcolm to see, it is not about the primary vote but the preferences.

          So sure my idea is not directly documented, but every day you read of these proposed backroom preference swaps, so attractive to both the Liberals and the Greens and so devastating to Labor. It is not my imagination but political reality in minority Queensland and a senate frustrated Federal government one byelection away from a minority government. Malcolm will do what the Greens and his ALP want and his friends want. He is the ultimate ego driven populist. So gay marriage, a very fast train, open borders and an ETS and his Republic. Guaranteed. These are Malcolm’s Liberals. He did not spend $3Million to get a Republic referendum and another few million to get his current job and give up. He is used to getting his own way. Jeremy Corbyn is doing similar damage to Labor in the UK, destroying it from within.

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  • #
    Oliver K. Manuel

    I agree with Jon Rappoport, freedom is our natural state of being:

    https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2016/09/18/freedom-is-the-natural-state-of-being-3/

    That is why tyrants promote falsehoods to enslave the public.

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    pat

    16 Sept: HawaiiTribune: CAMERON MICULKA: Utilities Commission pauses solar farm plan
    The commission Friday suspended an application by the Hawaii Electric Light Co. to build an above-ground transmission line for a proposed substation that would support 27 Feed-In-Tariff solar projects.
    That project would install tens of thousands of solar panels throughout 27 individual farms in and around Hawaiian Ocean View Ranchos. Each lot would be about 2 acres and produce 250 kilowatts each.
    That would make them eligible for the Tier 2 Feed-In-Tariff program, which would allow developer SPI Solar to sell the power to HELCO at a rate of 23.8 cents per kilowatt hour.
    But opponents have said the Feed In Tariff was meant to encourage smaller projects, not large-scale operations.
    Many residents voiced their opposition to the project while the application for the transmission line was pending. Former consumer advocate Jeff Ono also alleged developers took advantage of the law by breaking up the project into smaller farms so developers could avoid standard bidding protocol…
    Bosted said she isn’t opposed to solar power but argued the FIT program “lost its way.”
    “Why do we need this project? It’s just not needed,” she said. “Our town will get ruined for no good reason.”…
    Last Friday, the Public Utilities Commission agreed to put a hold on an application for a transmission line related to the solar projects, effectively stopping forward movement on the projects, until they resolve the Bosted complaint.
    Given that the line and substation wouldn’t be needed but for the solar projects, the commission decided to table HELCO’s application until it can resolve complaints against the entire project…
    http://hawaiitribune-herald.com/news/local-news/utilities-commission-pauses-solar-farm-plan

    15 Sept: KHON2 Hawaii: Manolo Morales: State says capacity has been reached in approving solar panel permits
    That means residents can only get approval for solar panels if they also install self-storage batteries which will cost thousands of dollars more…
    Revolusun’s chief operating officer Colin Yost says most homes will need two of them with their PV panels. The cost of two batteries will be about $15,000 with installation…
    Commission chair Randy Iwase says the cap is necessary for the safety of the whole grid. “We have to be a little more conservative, because if something does go wrong, the whole grid is affected in an adverse way,” he said. “We could have blackouts and everything.”
    Iwase says the PUC also has to reserve room on the grid for other forms of alternate energy, as well as give other families the opportunity to participate with what’s known as Community Based Renewables “to reach out to a segment of our population that cannot presently utilize PVs, either because of the cost or where they live if you’re a renter or if you’re in a condo.”…
    http://khon2.com/2016/09/15/state-says-capacity-has-been-reached-in-approving-solar-panel-permits/

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    pat

    14 Sept: Reuters: China clean energy generators face $9 bln subsidy shortfall -official
    by Kathy Chen in BEIJING and David Stanway IN SHANGHAI
    China is struggling to pay billions of yuan in subsidies to renewable power generators following a rapid expansion of capacity, a planning agency official said this week.
    Wind and solar power capacity has grown faster than expected in the last five years because of preferential policies that include higher tariffs paid for cleaner electricity…
    But Zhi Yuqiang, deputy director responsible for price regulation at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said developers face a possible shortfall of 60 billion yuan ($9 billion) in subsidy payments this year owed to them by the government…
    The additional outlay for the higher tariffs has been financed in part from surcharges paid by thermal power generators, but Zhi said the amount collected has fallen below expectations…
    But after rapid first-half growth, solar firms are bracing for a slowdown in the third quarter, citing a June 30 cut in tariffs for new projects, the subsidy delays, as well as a shortage of grid capacity that kept 21 percent of wind power and 12 percent of solar power offline from January to June…
    “Construction costs have definitely fallen because of the fall in module prices, but who can afford to build if you never get the subsidy payments?” said Maggie Ma, chief financial officer of Renesola, a solar manufacturer and project developer…
    Wind capacity is now around 140 GW, with solar at 63 GW.
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/china-solar-idUKL3N1BQ2CF

    8 Sept: TorontoSun: Shawn Jeffords: Scrap Green Energy Act to help hydro mess, tax watchdog says
    That according to Christine Van Geyn, the Ontario director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. She says Premier Kathleen Wynne’s acknowledgement Wednesday that her government needs to move to address the high cost of electricity is coming far too late for many Ontarians.
    “Call me a cynic, but if it takes losing a byelection of a Liberal stronghold for this to become an urgent issue maybe you don’t actually care about it,” she said of last week’s vote in Scarborough-Rouge River…
    “It’s the whole reason we’re in this mess,” she said of the act. “The auditor general found that as a result of these Green Energy Act contracts for wind and solar power, where we pay between two and three and a half times above market rate, we overpaid for power by about $37 billion.”
    And if the government didn’t want to kill the act outright, it could pull back the throttle on signing new deals under it, Van Geyn said.
    “Just ending new contracts would help,” she said…
    http://www.torontosun.com/2016/09/08/scrap-green-energy-act-to-help-hydro-mess-tax-watchdog-says?token=60776aed1cc5e2dd0f1293b7b3451832

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      toorightmate

      The Chinese are a lot smarter than what people who read the media might believe.
      Just have a little Bo Peep at their coal imports.
      They are very, very smart.

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    pat

    CAGW & celebrity-mania:

    18 Sept: Rollingstone: Daniel Kreps: See David Letterman Preview Return to TV for Climate Change Series
    “I’ve created, excuse the expression, kind of a love affair with this,” former late-night host says of solar power
    Seventeen months after his Late Show finale, David Letterman returns to television to host an upcoming episode of National Geographic’s climate change docuseries Years of Living Dangerously. Letterman’s episode, which was announced in September 2015, features the former late-night host travels to India to examine how that nation provides energy to its entire population…

    (LINK) Related: The Koch Brothers’ Dirty War on Solar Power
    All over the country, the Kochs and utilities have been blocking solar initiatives — but nowhere more so than in Florida

    “I’m in no position to editorialize about solar power or any kind of renewable power,” Letterman says in the promo (via Entertainment Weekly). “I’ve created, excuse the expression, kind of a love affair with this. Think about the coal-fired, dangerous, smoke-belching generating plants, and then you look at this and it’s friendly. There’s something very appealing about this, and it’s smooth. Look at it: I can touch it and it’s safe. I put my head right there on it.”
    A solar-powered current then repeatedly jolts Letterman after he rests his head and retirement beard on the panel…
    In June, Letterman resurfaced for an interview with Tom Brokaw where he called Donald Trump “despicable” and “repugnant.”
    http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/david-letterman-previews-tv-return-for-climate-change-series-w440417

    19 Sept: Guardian: Fiona Harvey: ‘No time to waste’: climate changes for films on global warming
    Rob Callender, who appeared in Sherlock and Game of Thrones, discusses The Incentive, his environmental call to arms
    Rob Callender is talking about cheese. “My dad loves cheese, really loves it. So I’ve had to persuade him to cut down. Instead of leaping on every two-for-one in the supermarket, buy one really nice cheese once a week. Dairy farming is such a horrible industry.”…
    In just over a month’s time, he he will begin shooting a short crowd-funded feature film on climate change…
    A thriller that takes a series of dams as its backdrop, The Incentive revolves around a “sort of Steve Jobs/Elon Musk” figure of an ambitious and charismatic entrepreneur taking on global warming…
    It will be shown initially at film festivals, with the hope of a general release or a bigger budget remake if successful…
    Making a film about climate change was a natural fit because he believes the problem is now growing so urgent that we only have a few years, “a very short window”, to make the differences to the economy and our consumption patterns that are needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions…
    “I think I have a deep guilt at having taken so many flights,” he says – and his experience of other cultures encourages him to think that ***if people can be persuaded there are different ways of living without our overweening dependence on fossil fuels, we can switch rapidly to those other modes…
    Films about climate change do not, in general, have a happy history…
    Arguably the best job was done by The Simpsons Movie…
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/18/rob-callender-the-incentive-global-warming-game-of-thrones-sherlock

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    pat

    desperation sets in:

    18 Sept: NPR: Michele Kelemen: UN Secretary General Pushes Climate Change Agreement Before Next Administration
    KELEMEN: Ban needs at least 55 countries representing 55 percent of climate change emissions, to formally join the deal for it to go into effect. And the secretary-general is asking as many countries as possible to deliver their letters of ratification at a ceremony this Wednesday in New York. One of his aides on this, Selwin Hart, says it’s been remarkable to see how quickly countries are moving through complicated political debates at home.
    SELWIN HART: It usually takes years and sometimes decades (laughter) – and sometimes never – for major international agreements like this to cross these thresholds that have been put in place and enter into force.
    KELEMEN: Hart is expecting about 20 countries to join on Wednesday, bringing the total close to 50…
    ASST SEC OF STATE SHEBA CROCKER: The secretary and numerous other U.S. government officials are talking all the time to other counterparts in other governments to try to encourage other countries to sign up this year so that, hopefully, the agreement will come into force this year.
    KELEMEN: Why the rush? In part, the U.S. election calendar is driving this. While Democrat Hillary Clinton has been on board with the Paris agreement, Republican Donald Trump has said he would walk away from it. If the Paris climate change agreement goes into force by the end of the year, the U.S. technically wouldn’t be able to withdraw from its commitments for four years, almost the duration of the next president’s term.
    And a top adviser to the U.N. secretary-general on climate change, Robert Orr, says with American businesses invested in this, it will be hard for even Trump to back out.
    KELEMEN: Orr, who is dean of the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, says this is part of the success of the deal. He says the secretary-general managed to bring in businesses, banks and others who recognize the dangers of climate change and see opportunities in renewable energy and other low-carbon industries.
    ORR: The ***real world has entered the negotiating room, which left no room for negotiators to continue to dawdle. And that is a huge legacy for Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon…
    http://www.npr.org/2016/09/18/494451695/un-secretary-general-push-landmark-climate-change-agreement-before-next-administ

    18 Sept: LA Times: Michael Finnegan: Trump’s climate science denial clashes with reality of rising seas in Florida
    “I’m not a big believer in man-made climate change,” he told the Miami Herald on one of the rare recent occasions when he has talked about it.
    A few blocks from the Miami Beach hotel where Trump spoke, water flooded over a seawall last year during the highest autumn tides, blocking traffic on one of South Florida’s main evacuation routes. The city is now elevating that street and many others as part of a $500-million program to protect itself from the rising ocean…
    Trump’s rejection of climate science portends one of the most consequential changes in direction for the nation should he win the presidency…
    President Obama, whose legislative agenda on climate change was thwarted by Republicans in Congress, pushed the boundaries of executive power to fight global warming, ***leaving his successor ample room to reverse course…
    ***His position puts him at odds with top energy companies. Exxon, Chevron, Shell and BP all acknowledge that burning of fossil fuels causes global warming. They encourage reduction of carbon emissions.
    “Donald Trump lives in a parallel universe where the facts established by the scientific community to him don’t exist,” said Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Climate Change Communication program at Yale University…
    Over the last decade, streets in low-lying neighborhoods have begun flooding during the highest tides, usually when the moon is full around the fall equinox…
    Trump was on the other side of Miami Beach at the oceanfront Fontainebleau Hotel last month when he spoke with the Herald. He acknowledged that climate does change, but not as a result of human activity…
    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-climate-miami-20160918-snap-story.html

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    pat

    18 Sept: TorontoSun: Lorrie Goldstein: Trudeau adopts Harper’s climate targets
    After denouncing the previous Tory government’s plan, Liberals copy it
    Federal Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna finally admitted the painfully obvious on Sunday.
    She acknowledged the Trudeau Liberals are not going to toughen Stephen Harper’s targets for reducing industrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions linked to climate change.
    This means that after years spent in opposition attacking as inadequate Harper’s targets of lowering GHG emissions to 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, and to 30% by 2030, the Liberals are adopting them…
    What is the Trudeau government going to do now?
    The answer is more photo-ops, more meetings and no action…
    In the real world, ratifying the Paris treaty means nothing.
    It contains no binding targets for reducing global GHG emissions and no timelines, deadlines or penalties for failure to comply…
    Climate scientist James Hansen, the father of man-made climate change theory, has rightly described the Paris treaty as a fraud.
    Which is a perfect description for the Liberal plan.
    http://www.torontosun.com/2016/09/18/trudeau-adopts-harpers-climate-targets

    uh oh…Bono thinks Trudeau has “always been ahead of the curve in realizing we can do more if the international community works together and subsuming your ego into the grand plan.” guess that doesn’t include CAGW:

    17 Sept: NationalPostCanada: CanadianPress: I’m a fan’: Bono praises Canada as being a leader of global community at Montreal AIDS conference
    Canada is a leader when it comes to collaborating on global issues, rockstar Bono said Saturday during his keynote address at a Montreal conference to fundraise for AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis.
    “It’s just great to see Canada leading on this,” he said. “You’ve always been ahead of the curve in realizing we can do more if the international community works together and subsuming your ego into the grand plan.”…
    http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/im-a-fan-bono-praises-canada-as-being-a-leader-of-global-community-at-montreal-aids-conference

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    pat

    19 Sept: BusinessInsider: Pamela Engel: John Kerry takes jab at Trump in talk at UN summit
    Secretary of State John Kerry took a swipe at Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during a discussion at a summit hosted by the United Nations Foundation and Mashable on Sunday.
    Speaking at the Social Good Summit ahead of UN General Assembly week, Kerry criticised Trump for not believing in climate change and subtly rebuked some of his key campaign positions.
    “We need leadership that understands” climate change, Kerry said in his talk at the 92nd St. Y in New York City. “It’s astounding to me that we’ve had people running for president … who don’t even acknowledge that climate change is taking place.”…
    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/john-kerry-trump-climate-change-2016-9?r=US&IR=T

    reminder from Michael Finnegan’s LA Times piece posted earlier: “Trump was on the other side of Miami Beach at the oceanfront Fontainebleau Hotel last month when he spoke with the Herald. He acknowledged that climate does change, but not as a result of human activity.”

    19 Sept: Australian: Annabel Hepworth: Victoria’s renewable energy targets draw business council’s ire
    Business has hit out at the Victorian government’s plans for ambitious new renewable energy targets, warning that it could drive up the costs of renewable projects under the national scheme and further distort the electricity market.
    The Business Council of Australia has warned that Victoria’s target for renewable energy generation of 25 per cent by 2020 and 40 per cent by 2025 could simply add to the cost of the federal renewable energy target.
    In a submission on the proposed scheme, the group raises concerns about the impact on existing electricity generation in the state, which relies heavily on burning brown coal in the Latrobe Valley…
    “Renewable energy targets are expensive tools to reduce Australia’s emissions.”
    The warnings have been echoed by the Australian Energy Council, which represents 21 electricity and downstream gas businesses, and the Minerals Council.
    Late yesterday, Victoria’s Energy, Environment and Climate Change Minister Lily D’Ambrosio dismissed the criticisms as “simply not true”…
    The council has also warned that South Australia could be at greater risk if Victoria meets its 2025 target because Victoria provides back-up power over a high-voltage interconnector when the wind is not blowing in South Australia…
    Too quick a move could lead to volatile prices and the risk is even greater after the Andrews government decided to lockup onshore natural gas reserves, the business group says…
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/victorias-renewable-energy-targets-draw-business-councils-ire/news-story/788d15c538e6a1f2bc0f5deb62bdacb2

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    pat

    18 Sept: CTV: Laura Payton: Liberals back away from setting tougher carbon targets
    The Liberal government isn’t going to update the Conservatives’ carbon emission targets, despite calling them unambitious, Environment Minister Catherine McKenna says…
    Heading into last year’s Paris climate talks, McKenna repeatedly referred to the previous government’s carbon emission targets as a floor and “not the ceiling” of what Canada should be doing.
    Now, McKenna says she’s going to stick with those Conservative targets.
    “What I said is that we will at least meet the target, and that is what I am committed to,” she told Solomon…
    McKenna now says she will impose a price on any province that doesn’t come up with its own cap and trade system or carbon tax.
    Currently, British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec, where 80 per cent of the Canadian population lives, have either a carbon tax or a cap and trade system. Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall opposes any action he says would further hurt the economy in western Canada, which has already been impacted by low oil prices.
    “It’s mandatory that everyone will have to have a price on carbon,” McKenna said.
    Pushed to clarify, McKenna said “That means that we would have a system that would be imposed, yes.”…
    Wall said, in an interview on CTV’s Question Period, that’s “not the collaborative approach the prime minister promised when he was elected.”…
    “If the feds have already made up their mind then I don’t know why we’re all wasting our time having a committee,” Wall said…
    Countries like China and India are building 2,400 coal-fired power plants around the world, he pointed out…
    “We’ve successfully deployed a carbon-capture and sequestration technology on a coal plant in south-east Saskatchewan that’s now burning coal three times cleaner than natural gas,” Wall said…
    McKenna was recently criticized for having spent more than $6,000 on a photographer to shadow her and staff at the Paris climate conference. She says she won’t be doing the same thing for the next climate conference, to be held in Morocco in November.
    “No, we’re not going to have a photographer,” she said.
    http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/liberals-back-away-from-setting-tougher-carbon-targets-1.3075857

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      Graeme No.3

      “having spent more than $6,000 on a photographer to shadow her and staff at the Paris climate conference”
      Please send that to Jay Weatherill ** who takes a whole team with him and doesn’t even get invited to the real conference.

      ** Premier of SA if you have rightly forgotten him.

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    pat

    15 Sept: KTLA: ‘The New Normal’: California’s Severe Drought Could Last Indefinitely, New Study Says
    by Tracy Bloom and Eric Spillman
    The study, which looked at prolonged periods of dryness in California over the past 10,000 years, was published Thursday in the Nature.com journal Scientific Reports (LINK)…
    The study investigated how natural climatic forces such as sun spots, a slightly different earth orbit and decreased volcanic activity intermittently warmed the region through radiative forcing, contributing to historic periods of dryness that lasted for hundreds and even thousands of years. It also looked at the presence and impact of greenhouse gases, another more recent warming force.
    The radiative forcing that results from warming forces have the potential to extend drought-like conditions indefinitely, according to UCLA Professor Glen MacDonald, the study’s lead author and an expert on drought and climate change.
    “Radiative forcing in the past appears to have had catastrophic effects in extending droughts,” MacDonald said in UCLA news release detailing the study’s results.
    “When you have arid periods that persist for 60 years, as we did in the 12th century, or for millennia, as we did from 6,000 to 1,000 B.C., that’s not really a ‘drought,’” he said. “That aridity is the new normal.”…
    UCLA researchers drew their conclusions by studying sediment samples from dry lake beds in Central California. During their investigation, they discovered evidence of an ancient drought in California that lasted for thousands of years.
    Those prehistoric mega-droughts were caused by natural phenomena, such as changes in ocean temperature and volcanic activity, according to the study…
    http://ktla.com/2016/09/15/the-new-normal-californias-severe-drought-could-last-indefinitely-new-study-says/

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    el gordo

    Japan is seeking rapprochement with Russia and settling the islands issue is paramount. Realpolitik.

    ‘In 1956, the Soviet Union and Japan signed the Moscow Declaration that officially ended the war between the two countries. According to the document, the Soviet Union agreed to hand over the Shikotan and Habomai islands to Japan following a peace treaty’s conclusion. However, the contract was torpedoed by the US. They threatened not to return Okinawa to Japan and cease funding for the war-torn country if Japan compromise with Moscow. Tokyo thus eventually refused to sign a peace treaty.’

    Katehon

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      Glen Michel

      Quite right.American foreign policy is one of profound hypocrisy. They can’t complain when the Russki’s get up to their usual hard game weltpolitik.

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        el gordo

        The cold war is over and the human face of capitalism is entering stage left.

        The Western Alliance needs to consider its future.

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    Liberator

    I think we’re in need of a posting about science being impartial when it comes to the outcomes of their research which is driven by their funding sources. Can science ever be truly impartial when they are being funded by either industry or the government? Unfortunately I believe scientists will always have a vested interest in maintaining their sources of funding – this impacts their impartiality when it coms to the reporting of their findings. Two recent cases to point are the sugar industry and now the artificial industry research and outcomes. Both research topics came out in favour of their respected industries and any detrimental findings were either hidden or not made clear in any reports. Sugar is ok – the issue is high fat diets, artificial sweeteners are ok etc.

    You don’t expect to bite the hand that feeds you now will you? Publish a report that goes against the funding source and funding is withdrawn. So reports are written to meet the perceived interests of the funder? If a researcher does find the results of their research goes against the expected/anticipated/wanted outcome what do they do?

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      “If a researcher does find the results of their research goes against the expected/anticipated/wanted outcome what do they do?”

      1. Go sell that to the other guy for even more bucks!
      2. Quit the academic research game. Search for whatever!
      3. Go get a real job!!

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    More from Dr. Roys site:
    SketpticGoneWild says: September 20, 2016 at 5:59 PM

    “Ball4 stated:(“No assertions Mike, the experiments described in Prof. Tyndalls own written words published 1861 and replicated since then demonstrate on the surface CO2 etc. can heat a planet by surrounding it.”)

    “All Tyndall did was take some absortivity measurements of various gases. He then make some conjectures. He never PROVED anything. He provided no theoretical calculations.”

    That is true! However the currently active SKS robo-bot-trolls of Ball4 and Norman, have never relied on any proof from anyone to promote their religious SCAM!

    SkepticGoneWild says: September 20, 2016 at 1:37 PM

    “Ball4, You allude to Tyndall. By all means, please provide specific quotes from Tyndall’s paper that support your contention.”

    The absorption spectra (with CO2 at much lower temperature) or emission spectra (with CO2 at much higher temperature) is easy to demonstrate. What has not been ever demonstrated is that atmospheric CO2 at any altitude radiatively absorbs more power from the below surface direction than it emits in the direction of space. Indeed all measurements so far, indicate the opposite of what the SKS robo-bot-trolls claim. There can be no atmospheric thermal “back radiation” as there exists no power source for such flux. At each and every altitude, measured thermal outward exit flux remains higher than all thermal absorption (accumulation)from below. Insolation need never be absorbed at the surface!

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    More fun from Dr. Spencer’s site:
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/08/simple-time-dependent-model-of-the-atmospheric-greenhouse-effect/#comment-225663
    Kristian says: September 21, 2016 at 12:02 AM

    “On the other hand, the transfer of heat (net energy) via radiation BOTH warms AND cools the atmosphere, but it cools it much MORE than it warms it. To make up for the large and exclusive warming from conduction and WV condensation.”

    Indeed! If you really examine the amount of current airborne water Column water (2.4-2.7)cm, 14cm in parts of the tropic ocean, all cannot be WV. Surface evaporation especially tree WV expiration in the northern hemisphere is huge! OTOH direct insolation evaporating the already airborne water condensate (clouds) is, or can be even greater! All can certainly be dispatched to very low radiance space, in every direction except to the Sun, and Jupiter!

    “Here is how the atmosphere is dynamically warmed
    (-> 220 W/m^2):
    Release of LH of vaporisation from the surface: 40%
    SW radiation directly from the Sun: 34%
    LW radiation from the surface: 15%
    Conduction from the surface: 11%”

    My possible numbers are:
    Here is how the atmosphere is dynamically “heated” both LH and SH
    (-> 190 W/m^2):
    Convective migration of LH of vaporization from the surface: 40%
    SW radiation airborne H20 evaporation directly from the Sun: 50%
    LW radiation from the surface: 5%
    Conduction from the surface: 5%

    And here is how the atmosphere is dynamically cooled
    (190 W/m^2 ->):
    LW atmospheric exitance, mostly LH powering EMR exitance,constant temperature: 95%
    Direct surface EMR exitance to space 5%.

    The gravitationally induced atmospheric thermal lapse is significantly reduced by that wonderful atmospheric water. This cools the Earth to livable! Why do we not hire some to try to understand all this, and throw self appointed academic Climate Clowns into the volcano

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    Some here and elsewhere complain of my 5 Phases of water. I write of atmospheric water that remains unknown to earthlings. The lowest density atmospheric water remains WV, a gas with disconnected ‘molecules’ that must repel each other so as to fill any available ‘volume’ More compact (higher density) ‘water’ is a ‘liquid’ that remains damn near incompressible but remains so flexible in all directions. Such fills ‘volume’ but remains subservient to gravitational attraction/compression so as to only fill ‘the bottom’ of such ‘volume’. The ‘away from’ gravitational compression has only WV. Between the lower liquid and above WV remains one of the other two phases of water, a colloid between liquid and gas water. Such is hated by arrogant academics as no one can figure what such may be. This colloid remains unknown and un-quantifiable. Stick that where the Sun don’t shine, arrogant academics. Engineers easily admit, “beats da shit outta me”!

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