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Australian temperatures unchanged for 20 years: Plus Malcolm Roberts first Senate speech is tomorrow

Malcolm Roberts will give his maiden Senate speech tomorrow (Tuesday) at 5pm at the Australian Parliament House in Canberra. To reserve seating contact Leon Ashby leon.ashby AT aph.gov.au or phone (02) 6277 3151. He has asked for updated graphs of the UAH data for Australia. His speech may be available via the APH website. (h/t Jim S)

Luckily for us the UAH satellite database can be filtered to track temperatures in the lower troposphere over the Australian land mass. Thanks to John Christy for providing an Australian specific dataset.

We’ve put out a third of all the CO2 homosapiens has ever made in the last 20 years, and it apparently has made no meaningful difference to temperatures here. We’ve put out 60% of all our CO2 since the satellite record began.

Here is the full Australian monthly data from 1979 – now for all seasons graphed below. There are breathless news articles hyping every hot month, every hot week, for records in every little region, and even for a single record hot nights, but no press release to say that temperatures in Australia have not really changed in a meaningful way since 1995.

Thanks to  KensKingdom for regular updates to the UAH series and calculations of “the pause” in regions all over the world.

Australian UAH LT Temperatures, lower troposphere, satellite, 2016. Graph.

 

The Australian UAH data covers land but not ocean, Tasmania, but not PNG or Indonesia. It’s really quite useful recording that operates continuously day and night, measuring the temperature of the air from the ground to about 8km up. It is not the same as what the BOM measures on the ground, but in theory, according to the climate models, the troposphere should warm faster than the ground. (That’s very central to the amplification of effect of CO2, it is the missing hot spot, the fingerprint of CO2).

The BOM data is below (be aware it covers a different time period starting in 1910.)

Source: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Bureau of Meteorology, Australian mean temperature, graph, 2016.

The warmists kick up a to-do,
That mankind has increased CO2.
Which can not be the cause,
Of the twenty year Pause,
And the earlier mild warming too.

— Rauiri

..

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Australian temperatures unchanged for 20 years: Plus Malcolm Roberts first Senate speech is tomorrow, 9.1 out of 10 based on 77 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/jmsotuj

123 comments to Australian temperatures unchanged for 20 years: Plus Malcolm Roberts first Senate speech is tomorrow

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    • #
      TdeF

      A good and fair letter. Very understated. Brian Cox’s performance was incredibly bad. He cannot claim innocence and claiming ignorance is just awful, so I cannot think of an excuse for his childish 17,000 NASA people cannot be wrong argument. Putting a man on the moon in the 1970s has nothing to do with Global Warming.

      Frankly I do not even know why NASA are in weather at all? Nor the CSIRO. What happened to specialist NOAA or the BOM? It is like hearing that Albert Einstein thought Climate Change/Global Warming was the natural result of the photoelectric effect, just nonsense, irrelevant and seriously worrying. Maybe like so many people before him, Brian Cox backs his BBC friends and employers at the price of his own credibility. He does not even try to explain why a particle physicist would know anything about the weather? This is the same BBC who destroyed Top Gear because they did not like immensely popular petrol head Jeremy Clarkson and now the UK public have to pay another 50 million pound a year in taxes.

      Sell the ABC and SBS. Now. It’s not our ABC, it’s theirs. We should not have to pay for political extremists like Jones and his friends who extort cash from successive governments with their illegal control of the biggest media in the country. Can no one see the danger to democracy as recognized by Australian Federal law? As General Manager Mark Scott said, we are not North Korea and do not need government media. We certainly do not need a taxpayer funded media giant which continually tells Australians what to think and for whom to vote. We are not being informed, we are being indoctrinated.

      573

      • #
        James Murphy

        Perhaps I am mistaken (far from the 1st occasion today), but I understood that the infamous plot was from NOAA, not NASA?

        52

        • #
          TdeF

          Perhaps the greatest US promoter of man made global warming after politician Al Gore is James Hansen, “From 1981 to 2013, he was the head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City”, 35 years of spruiking that mankind was the problem, the whole problem, the only problem. It has been his life’s work. He would be very disappointed with the failure of the world to heat at all.

          243

          • #
            TdeF

            It was also NASA which Cox quoted, not NOAA. Like most people, Cox only knows about NASA. Man on the moon. Brian Cox was born in 1968. Neil Armstrong stepped on the moon in 1969. Dr. Cox would have learned about NASA in history lessons, not science.

            212

            • #
              Bulldust

              Like I said on the earlier thread… would have been classic had Roberts mentioned the NASA letter requesting management pull in the heads of GISS. Fellow NASA members are quite disturbed with the non-science claims press released by GISS. So he is correct, 17,000 NASA folks aren’t wrong … some of them rightly pointed out the manure being dispensed by Hansen and co.

              132

              • #
                cohenite

                Good point. Malcolm did not refer to professor Cox but his maiden speech was still excellent, a passionate description of the battle lines. The Greens must have been squirming. Still Malcolm left the door open to negotiate with either major party. Very clever.

                43

        • #

          This is not true! At the beginning of Gore Hansen Nasa Goddard; Noaa had a fair fluid dynamics model of Earth’s atmosphere. Not good, just fair, with reason to expect improvement. NASA Goddard Hanson comes along using an obscene implementation of the Air Force HiTran database to promote only the vilification of the coal industry. The only competitor for AlGore’s gas investments.
          NOAA could not compete at all; they had to join to obtain any funds! The rest is history. Go carefully read about it.
          All the best! -will-

          52

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        What Class?

        I believe the first A in NASA stands for aeronautical. So naturally, they’d take an interest in everything pertaining to the atmosky.

        10

    • #

      Is this the same Graham Woods that’s been bankrolling the Greens, killing off industry in Tasmania, funded The Guardian Australia etc?

      16

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    AndyG55

    Thanks Jo for backing up what I have continually said..

    NO WARMING IN AUSTRALIA FOR 20 years.

    In fact, Australian temperatures are DOMINATED by cooling trends with period step-ups that give a ZERO trend overall.

    https://s19.postimg.io/iuq4zl10z/Australia_1996_now.png

    And its not just Australia….

    The whole Southern hemisphere out side the Tropics has a ZERO trend this century

    https://s19.postimg.org/4khzxrbzn/UAH_So_Extropical.png

    And as we all know, the UAH SoPol has a very slightly negative trend over the whole of the satellite data

    https://s19.postimg.io/5dm8qkc4z/UAH_So_Pol_All.png

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    • #
      AndyG55

      Jo, feel free to forward those graphs to Malcolm.

      As you know, I’m in Newcastle.. and rather busy with “stuff”.

      But if Malcolm is ever in the area, I would love the chance to talk to him.

      83

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      AndyG55

      nb.. on first graph, blue trends are freehand, not calculated.

      I can fix that on the weekend if anyone want to argue.

      Time is NOT my friend at the moment.

      73

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    AndyG55

    BOM data is dominated by URBAN homogenisation effects.

    Intentional or incompetence……

    I’ll leave that up to others to decide ;-)

    233

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      Peter Miller

      BOM homogenisation practices are notorious. There are so many inexplicable instances of gross distortion/homogenisation, that the answer to your question has to be, “Intentional.” Guilty as charged.

      The UAH temperature statistics are now the only ones not subjected to data torture/manipulation; a scary thought is: Supposed they get hijacked by the Klimate Inquisition, just like the other temperature databases?

      273

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        sophocles

        The UAH temperature statistics are now the only ones not subjected to data torture/manipulation;

        Not necessarily the only ones. Most of the Northern Hemisphere land based databases have been made unreliable. Some of the Southern Hemisphere ones are the same. Some ex-NIWA AGW believers may have `cooked’ the New Zealand temperature database. Thankfully, Dr. Chris de Freitas of Auckland University has done an honest job. If the diatribes, denials, criticism and all the usual acclaim, attributions and approbrium he has attracted from the pro-warmists is anything to go by, then his work may well be correct and trustworkthy.

        In the 2014 paper, A Reanalysis of Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Trends in New Zealand the authors ( de Freitas, C.R., Dedekind, M.O. & Brill, B.E.) state

        Our analysis, which uses updated measurement techniques and corrects for shelter-contaminated data, produces a trend of 0.28 °C per century

        ,

        `Global Warming’ is Northern Hemispheric Warming. It isn’t global at all.
        Antarctica is firmly in control of the Southern Hemisphere temperatures … and weather. CO2 just doesn’t get a look in.
        And the Galaxy is firmly in control of our climate.

        52

  • #
    Ted O'Brien.

    Looking forward to Wednesday morning’s news!

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      Leigh

      TO, if your relying on the propaganda machine for alarmists. Which is mainstream media and “their ABC”. For an extensive coverage of Senator Roberts statement of facts.
      Then we will all be sadly disappointed. It will be a fleeting reference at best and never to be repeated at worst.

      91

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    TdeF

    Yes, but if you get the data from South Australia alone, you will find the leading windmill state is far cooler after closing their coal fired electricity station. Surely. Also cooler around windmills. Or in areas where people ride a lot of bicycles. If that fails, there is always human sacrifice. Politicians first.

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    pattoh

    BUGGER,the Boys from BoM will have to race out & paint the steel support posts under the Stevenson Screens matt black instead of grey to get even more heat into the data set now!

    243

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      AndyG55

      Nah, they will just do what they did at Observatory Hill for the “record” in 2013 (iirc)
      it was …

      go out an open the screen on a really hot day !!

      I saw the AWS (Automatic weather station) summary the next day, and it was equal to 1934.. (wish I still had the screen cap)

      I emailed BOM and asked where the extra 0.5ºC came from… NO RESPONSE.

      203

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    Albert

    Malcolm Roberts – an honest politician !!
    I’m now typing 21.1 metres under water according to all the experts. The alarmists don’t know co2 has bred super humans who can work so deep under water. Co2 should not be a problem

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      delcon2

      Did anyone notice that none of the”One Nation”senators,is a Lawyer?
      Might be”Why”they know what they are talking about.

      20

      • #
        Albert

        Yesterday in ‘Question Time’ a Government minister asked if members on his side had experience in small business, they all put their hands up. He then asked the Opposition side the same question, none put their hands up and that’s part of the problem in Australia

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        • #

          that’s part of the problem in Australia

          The fact that they didn’t obey the directive of the Government?

          You can check the records for how many are on each side rather than relying on them complying with political games.

          10

  • #
    handjive

    Understanding The “Hottest Year Evah”
    All Warming In NSW And Victoria Is Due To UHI
    a survey of the ten oldest stations in New South Wales And Victoria, circled below.
    Three rural stations were not included because of obvious problems with the data, but none showed any warming.

    The two urban stations at Melbourne and Sydney both showed strong warming, and both have disastrously poor siting of their thermometers in the middle of large cities.

    https://climatism.wordpress.com/2016/09/08/understanding-the-hottest-year-evah/
    ~ ~ ~
    Perhaps some old links for reminders:

    New location for Melbourne CBD weather observations and forecasts
    “Initial results suggest the new site shows similar rainfall and temperature readings in most weather conditions, although it is cooler in southerly winds and sea breezes.”

    http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/announcements/vic/latrobe-site-closure.shtml
    ~ ~ ~
    Melbourne heat — BoM makes mystery corrections, but misses new skyscrapers. Incompetence?

    http://joannenova.com.au/2015/03/acorn-melbourne-bom-makes-wrong-corrections-misses-new-skyscrapers-incompetence/

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  • #
    Lewis P Buckingham

    Why stop here?
    The big prediction was that the dams would be dry and rain would evaporate off before run off.
    Problem is that the data does not support this
    http://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/dam-levels/greater-sydneys-dam-levels
    Presumably our wheat crop would have failed completely by now if this were true.
    We are on a roll.
    http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=au&commodity=wheat
    It is notable that after the Chinese hack of the BOM, a number of properties were bid for by Chinese government influenced interests. The Kidman spread, offered the possibility of grass fed beef with ample opportunity to fatten in the North, South and Central Australia.
    They jumped at it despite the gloomy predictions.
    Beef production is expected to rise after recent years’ higher slaughter of breeder cows due to drought.
    A good time to buy in,so the Chinese bidding can be justified, no gloom here.
    http://beefandlamb.ahdb.org.uk/market-intelligence-news/australia-to-produce-less-beef-over-the-next-few-years/
    The core problem with the BOM methodology is that it is not necessarily published and repeatable.
    How they managed to conflate the temperatures in Hillston with Rutherglen in Victoria totally defeats me.
    http://www.winemakers.com.au/ Rutherglen is a Victorian wine growing area,Hillston is called semi arid, having worked there, it is very hot.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-arid_climate
    BOM adds these two zones together and says the average is a representation to be put into a climate model.
    This needs revisiting.
    Without robust data put into models,we won’t be able to use the output in the first place.
    Only other nations that have their own models and our hacked raw data, non homogenised,will have a better idea than us about our future.
    Can we afford such a strategic and economic blindness?

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    Gee Aye

    Weep plebs as I’ll be there. Although I have little choice.

    23

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    aussiepete

    To my simple mind, trying to homogenise the UHI effect is an irrelevant absurdity and an insult to rational thought.
    Back in the sixties I worked in an non airconditioned laboratory in a steelworks. In summer that lab. temp. frequently exceeded 50 degrees Celsius and was logged daily. Now my question is, that if the regional temperature was around say 35c why was I feeling so hot in that lab? If only I had known about homogenisation in those days.I wonder if the Company has gone back and corrected all those log entries which modern science can show were plainly incorrect.
    I welcome anyone putting me straight on this if my thinking is askew.

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    DonB

    “We’ve put out a third of all the CO2 homosapiens has ever made in the last 20 years, and it apparently has made no meaningful difference to temperatures here. We’ve put out 60% of all our CO2 since the satellite record began.”

    We have not MADE carbon dioxide, we have returned it to the atmosphere where it previously resided. And, by the way, when the atmosphere contained much more CO2 than it currently does, the earth did not burn up, nor did all of the species disappear, etc., etc.

    154

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    TdeF

    In the Telegraph “Bad news for nervous fliers: climate change is making severe turbulence more common”

    Lots of waffle about ‘Climate Change’ but finally they had to say it..

    “Transatlantic flights are likely to be significantly impacted by rising temperatures because the effect climate change is having on the jet stream.”

    Firstly, what rising temperatures?

    And the authority? “Scientists say” and quotes a scientist Dr Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading.

    “When we think of global warming we’re usually thinking about the fact that it’s getting warmer at ground level, but in fact the temperatures are changing higher up in the atmosphere including where planes fly at 35,000ft,”

    The latest findings are further evidence of how climate change will affect aviation in the future. A previous University of Reading study, also led by Dr Williams, found that clear-air turbulence will become stronger and more frequent as a result of global warming.

    Secondly, this dire warning is all future tense and not factual, so we can presume another infallible computer simulation of a certain future when there is actually some warming? Another round of funding please.

    162

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      Annie

      Our last flights over to England were actually fairly turbulence free… there was the odd bit but that’s normal. In the past we’ve generally noticed ‘that law’ that says that turbulence happens just as tea and coffee have been served, or that the seat belt signs go on just as one plans a visit to the bathroom! :(
      I always have my belt on when in my seat in case I doze off.
      BTW, we have had hours and hours of ‘drought’ falling from the sky today. This is one of those soggy winters that we’ve seen before, after a dri-ish several months…dams and tanks now full…whoopee!

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        TdeF

        My experience is that turbulence is now very rare. There are so many aircraft and I assume they relay any problems the following aircraft weave around the problem. Satellites must help too. There used to be 1 hour of white knuckle time over the equator, but it is rare now. I remember a typhoon in the South China sea where the 747 wingtips seemed to be touching and the 747 was new. Now it just doesn’t happen. The only exception is SE North America, from Florida to Texas where the weather is truly foul and ambulances greet landing aircraft and all the oxygen masks are down and the aircraft cannot take off until it is fumigated. Australia is amazingly benign with hardly a bump on any flight.

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          Albert

          I know you must be aware of the incredible radar on the flight deck that allows you to avoid clear air turbulence, most of the time. It’s still there, just fly into the red stuff and you’ll know

          30

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          Annie

          I remember some rough times descending to Perth in a 737 (my most disliked type of aircraft..I loathe the 737). There were some wind shear episodes and I always feel landings in 737s are rough anyway! I also once had an interesting time while showering in an A380 on the way to Sydney when turbulence hit! Thank goodness for the various grab handles. Having said that I find the A380 remarkably smooth and quiet.

          30

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            Albert

            The a380 is smoother because of its weight and sometimes its better to ‘plant’ the b737 on the runway if crosswinds cause too much drift and of course a heavy landing is preferred if the runway is wet as hydroplaning may occur.
            Aviation grew from a flight as long as a b747 wing span to playing golf on the moon and it never stops improving

            10

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      Manfred

      The University of Reading scientivists misspoke ‘turbulence’.
      They were talking about fliers flatulence not ‘turbulence’ as in,

      “Bad news for nervous fliers: climate change is making severe flatulence more common”

      The constant stream of propaganda and climatism has led to elevated levels of anxiety. For some, this state unfortunately manifests as a busy bowel. Flying incarcerates these distressed folk for long periods making bouts of severe flatus inevitable. Nervous fliers should go suitably prepared. Deformable ear plugs supplied by airlines may be used elsewhere, in nostrils for example.

      Treat scientivists with no respect.

      61

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      CheshireRed

      The UK Guardian also ran that absurd story a couple of days ago. Click ‘Recommends’ on the BTL comments and see the top-rated reply is from an experienced airline pilot…who absolutely destroys the biased article and plainly incorrect ‘study’. Click on his username to follow all his replies to furious greenies who refuse to accept his obvious superiority as a pilot over a ‘climate scientist’. Great fun! :-)

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/11/cost-bumpy-flights-air-turbulence-global-warming-united-airlines

      30

  • #
    macha

    ERL Happ shows Anomalies in sea surface temperature in the southern hemisphere from decade to decade. The anomaly is with respect to the divergence from the whole of period average between 1948 and 2016. Data from Kalnay’s reanalysis.
    The chart (unsure if it will Appear) shows the fact that there has been no increase in surface temperature in the month of December since 1948-56.

    72

  • #
    Shane

    BOM graph missing. Broken link or has BOM deleted it?

    32

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    Alexander

    For the Mods:

    Here in the States, the second graph 404′d. Perhaps you meant to display

    tmean.aus.0112.16021.png

    at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries

    instead of

    tmean.aus.0112.16031.png

    [Thanks for calling that to our attention. However, in the future an email to support@joannenova.com.au will probably get you faster attention and is the preferred method.] AZ

    62

  • #
    Ruairi

    The warmists kick up a to-do,
    That mankind has increased CO2.
    Which can not be the cause,
    Of the twenty year Pause,
    And the earlier mild warming too.

    202

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  • #
    Pauly

    Jo,
    I suggest the comparison of GISS datasets, showing raw, adjusted and homogenised, vs BoM data over the last 140 years, as shown by Ed Caryl here for Adelaide:
    http://notrickszone.com/2016/04/23/nasa-homogenization-infusing-more-error-adelaide-airport-cooling-turns-into-warming/#sthash.Smv9mDcr.dpbs

    The adjustments shown in this graphic, made by the BoM, would appear to have no scientific credibility.
    http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Adelaide-Airport-Adjustments.jpg

    Malcolm should be able to question the data being produced by a government agency, and ask them to explain the rationale for these adjustments.

    92

  • #
    el gordo

    If Malcolm Roberts goes down this path we can write him off.

    “There are many topics I will mention during my first speech and one of the more important for Australians is Paul Keating’s government signing away our nationhood when it signed the UN’s 1992 Rio Declaration for 21st century global governance (sometimes known as UN Agenda 21),” he posted on his Facebook page.’

    Farr/News

    102

    • #
      Analitik

      Would you care to explain your reasoning?

      20

      • #
        el gordo

        They will laugh at him, its a step too far. Malcolm should concentrate his effort explaining that its the sun, moon and gas giants controlling our weather system.

        52

    • #
      redress

      If Malcolm Roberts goes down this path we can write him off.

      Why?? One of the tenticles grasping surely the whole climate scam is/was Agenda 21, IMHO

      121

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      I already wrote him off when he started spouting Salby-esque nonsense on national television.
      He claims to be interested in evidence that establishes cause and effect, but he doesn’t walk the walk.
      Very inconsistent. No different to the average person.

      He’ll get a couple of inconvenient climate truths into the airwaves but it will be overshadowed by his other ominous conjectures and all the smearing he’ll receive from the media.

      32

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    Andrew McRae

    it apparently has made no meaningful difference to temperatures here.

    Be fair, Jo. You’ve put the unfiltered data there which makes the trend difficult to see above the monthly noise.
    Perhaps that is also a fair point in itself, that the trend is small compared to annual variation.
    But the trend would be more apparent if you smooth it out a bit, or just repeat the trend calculation that is listed at the end of the UAH dataset itself, which for Australia is 0.16 degrees per decade.

    So now that the trend is apparent, you can give it whatever meaning you like.

    Pessimism: An extra 1.6 degrees by end of century is a catastrophe.
    Optimism: An extra 1.6 degrees puts the Arctic back to the Optimum.
    Most likely: The trend won’t last, it will turn into cooling within 20 years.

    63

    • #
      AndyG55

      NO WARMING IN AUSTRALIA FOR 20 years.

      In fact, Australian temperatures are DOMINATED by cooling trends with period step-ups that give a ZERO trend overall.

      https://s19.postimg.io/iuq4zl10z/Australia_1996_now.png

      The only reason for there being a whole data trend of +0.16C/decade is because of the dip in the mid 1980′s

      114

      • #
        Albert

        Obviously the science says when we have a record wet, the clouds do not shade the Earth and there is a 97% consensus.
        I need to go back to school and have it hammered into me that 2+3=9

        31

    • #
      TdeF

      Hard to see trends in all the noise? Then it’s not a trend but augury, the interpretation of omens, an arbitrary least squares curve which may have no meaning at all. Given that the confident prediction was a climbing 0.5C per ten years, 1.5C in 30 years, 5C in 100 years, the predictions are a massive 1.0C off target and looking for trends smaller than the noise? A better interpretation is that nothing much has happened. Real science would be investigating what happened because the meteorological community clearly do not have an explanation. It has all the hallmarks of instrumental change in the 1980s, something which did happen world wide in that period.

      113

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘A better interpretation is that nothing much has happened.’

    Its not an easy sell when people have been brainwashed into believing AGW, only a global cooling trend over five years will give us credibility.

    52

  • #
    ColA

    Jo,

    This graph says all that needs to be said and why we should question what the hell they are doing to real temperature records!
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show.cgi?id=501946720000&dt=1&ds=5

    Maybe we should all get with the movement – lets all write to our birth hospitals and ask them to correct out birth temperature down 1 degree C to adjust for UHI!

    Good luck to Malcolm today.

    72

  • #
    handjive

    Sen. Malcolm Roberts tweets today:

    Our Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has just returned to Australia after visiting the Pacific Islands, while there her said:

    “For Australia, there is no more pressing need for regional action than on climate change and resilient development.”

    He also drooped off $300 million of your hard earned taxpayer dollars to spend on alleged sea level rise that is not supported by empirical evidence or observational data.

    We have a lot of work to do my friends.

    You’d believe in global warming too, if Turnbull gave you $300 Million.”
    ~ ~ ~
    Finally I have a voice in Parliament.

    92

  • #
    handjive

    Perhaps Sen. Roberts could highlight these two 97% settled climate science statements.

    2008: This drought may never break
    “IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.

    “Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones.”

    2016: Sydney warms up as gathering clouds point to big wet inland
    Winter was Australia’s second wettest on record – just missing out on a new high by a couple of millimetres, leaving many regions already sodden.

    “It’s about as wet as it has been in the past 110 years [of records] across Australia,” David Jones, head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, said.
    . . .
    Wouldn’t it be interesting to ask David Jones which prediction is incorrect.

    102

    • #
      el gordo

      “It’s about as wet as it has been in the past 110 years [of records] across Australia,” David Jones, head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, said. “The set-up is quite extreme.”

      This is our big chance to move the argument to hydrology and away from corrupted temperatures. Assuming we can discover a cyclic pattern.

      51

      • #
        Albert

        True, it has been wet but probably due to the long el nino with high water temps across the north of Aus. Our wet is normally with la nina and cyclones but this wet started with the collapsing el nino. I think it’s the wettest winter during my long time on Earth. Winters were wet in the past but they dried up decades ago leaving Summers to provide most of our rains.
        Another feature that disappeared was the dust from the Outback reaching Brisbane every summer, it also disappeared many decades ago, except for the 1 dust storm that also closed Sydney airport.

        41

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘Winters were wet in the past but they dried up decades ago leaving Summers to provide most of our rains.’

          Timbal at BoM blamed it on an intensification of the Subtropical Ridge, supposedly caused by CO2, but this winter has seen the nexus broken.

          A very negative Indian Ocean Dipole is the major force at the moment, with la Nina sitting on her hands.

          41

    • #
      el gordo

      We could start with the 60 year cycle.

      http://jennifermarohasy.com/2014/06/solar-cycle-could-point-to-mega-drought/

      Kevin Long might be in for a fall.

      83

      • #
        Albert

        Texas had massive Hurricane flooding about 50 years apart 3 times
        The Brisbane government caused flood was when Queensland flooded in 92 rivers equal of 50 years previous with 6 tines the December average. It was all forecast months earlier with the SOI and our earth dam was not protected before the flood

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      el gordo

      There is a reasonable chance that sea level will fall.

      ‘The current negative IOD event became the strongest in 50 years of recorded history when it peaked in early July. This was one of the main reasons Australia had its second wettest winter on record.

      ‘After weakening during late winter, the negative IOD has re-strengthened quite rapidly in recent weeks. It is currently at its strongest negative value since mid-July and once again close to the events record-breaking peak.’

      Weatherzone

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    Robber

    Jo, would be useful to overlay the UAH and BOM data on the one chart to show the different trends.

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    pat

    conveying the complex science of climate to lay people in a short speech is not easy.

    Roberts is better off addressing easily-understood consequences of CAGW policies, such as:

    13 Sept: Australian: Rebecca Puddy: BHP looks to coal-fired station to ease SA’s power shortages
    BHP Billiton could restart Port Augusta’s coal-fired power plant to combat South Australia’s high power prices and limited supply.
    The company is the state’s largest single power consumer, taking 120 megawatts in continuous load from the national grid to power its operations at Olympic Dam. Because of that, it is understood the company is considering firing up Alinta’s Northern Power Station as part of a range of ­options to meet its ­immediate ­energy needs.
    BHP head of corporate affairs Simon Corrigan declined to comment on Northern Power Station but said the company was ­“exploring all options to meet our own electricity needs over the short to medium term”.
    “Competitive supply of electricity is ­essential if South Aus­tralia is to host competitive industries,” Mr Corrigan said.
    Over the longer term, BHP supported the state government’s focus on reform and infrastructure upgrades, he said…READ ALL
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/bhp-looks-to-coalfired-station-to-ease-sas-power-shortages/news-story/e8455a0b6fa3e8d44f8b1513178d41bc

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    pat

    MSM today, with links:

    12 Sept: NYT: August Ties July for Hottest Month on Record
    By KAREN WORKMANSEPT
    It just keeps getting hotter.
    August has tied July for the distinction of being the hottest month since record-keeping began in 1880, NASA said in a news release on Monday.
    And there’s a good chance 2016 will become the third year in a row of record heat…
    Mr. Schmidt cautioned against putting too much significance on monthly rankings and emphasized that the long-term warming trend is more significant.
    “This year really does stand out in comparison with all the other years,” Mr. Schmidt said…READ ON
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/13/science/august-hot-record-temperature.html?_r=0

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    pat

    13 Sept: SMH: Baby bonus cut under significant budget compromise between Coalition and Labor
    by Fergus Hunter, James Massola
    The Coalition and Labor have agreed to cut back a $1.4 billion baby bonus payment as part of the deal to pass the $6 billion omnibus savings bill, which will also water down proposed cuts to renewable energy funding and preserve the clean energy supplement for “vulnerable” recipients…
    Previously worth $1.3 billion, the abolition of the clean energy supplement for new recipients of welfare payments came under intense pressure from welfare groups and internally from Labor’s left faction. It will now be kept for people on Newstart and pensions but ended for recipients of Family Tax Benefits, saving $208 million.
    The Greens said the revised cut to renewable energy agency ARENA – now $460 million instead of $1 billion – had exposed Labor as “clean energy charlatans” that had rolled over…
    Treasurer Scott Morrison said the decision on ARENA funding was final but foreshadowed that the government would continue to pursue the cuts not adopted in this legislation as there “is so much more that needs to be done”…
    Senator Cormann said that because Labor had agreed to cut the clean energy supplement for only three of 19 welfare payments, the government would pursue the rest separately…
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/baby-bonus-cut-under-significant-budget-compromise-between-coalition-and-labor-20160912-grewy6.html

    13 Sept: AAP: SA to suffer from renewables cuts: Greens
    South Australia’s renewable energy sector will be hard hit by a $500 million cut to the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), SA Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young says.
    The cut is part of the federal government’s budget savings omnibus bill, after Labor negotiated to retain $800 million in funding for the agency over five years…
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/sa/a/32605116/sa-to-suffer-from-renewables-cuts-greens/#page1

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    pat

    Popsci Australia supposed to have:

    If This Timeline Doesn’t Convince You Climate Change Is Real, Nothing Will
    Popular Science‎ – 8 hours ago
    With today’s news that August broke global temperature records, it’s useful to consider how …

    if u click on the link, u get

    “Oops! Something went wrong. Please scroll down to find your content”

    searching the headline at Popsci brings up nothing.

    check out the timeline here!

    If This Timeline Doesn’t Convince You Climate Change Is Real, Nothing Will
    A Timeline of Earth’s Average Temperature…ETC
    http://green.trendolizer.com/2016/09/if-this-timeline-doesnt-convince-you-climate-change-is-real-nothing-will.html

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    Ian George

    Is this an example of NASA GISS exaggerating temps? Check Australia from its Aug global temps map (mean temps).
    It shows Aus around the +0.5C- 1.0C anomaly. Yet Aust mean was below 0.44C. Tasmania is shown 1.0-2.0C above when its mean was only 0.19C.
    See GISS here
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
    See Aust Aug summary here (scroll down to see Aust and state anomalies).
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml

    Probably using sea temps to increase land temps. This gridded method to record temps brings a new meaning to the word anoma – lies.

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    pat

    all over the MSM:

    12 Sept: WaPo: Brazil just ratified the Paris climate agreement. Here’s why it’s a big deal
    By Chris Mooney and Dom Phillips
    RIO DE JANEIRO – Brazil, the country that’s home to the largest tropical rainforest on Earth, ratified the Paris climate agreement Monday – making it the third-largest country for emissions, after the U.S. and China, to have done so…
    Currently, according to the World Resources Institute, 27 countries have done so, representing 39.08 percent of those emissions (this total does not include Brazil)…
    Brazil, however, accounts for a very significant 2.48 percent of global emissions – making it the globe’s 7th highest emitter…
    The bill is still being discussed in the Brazilian congress. But in ratifying the Paris agreement Brazil has made a step forward and committed to cut greenhouse effect gas emissions in 37 percent by 2025, with a possible 43 percent reduction by 2030, compared to 2005 levels…
    The only remaining countries that emit more than Brazil, but have not yet ratified, are Russia (7.5 percent of emissions), India (4.1 percent), Japan (3.79 percent), and Germany (2.56). If all four of those countries also ratified this year, the agreement would easily enter into force.
    But other countries could also contribute to tipping the world into an officially active Paris regime, including Canada (1.95 percent), South Korea (1.85 percent), Mexico (1.7 percent), the U.K. (1.55 percent), Indonesia (1.49 percent), South Africa (1.46 percent) and Australia (1.46 percent)…
    “It’s an important signal, and continues the momentum going into next week in New York,” said Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/09/12/brazil-just-ratified-the-paris-climate-agreement-heres-why-thats-a-really-big-deal/?utm_term=.fea1c3e99a63

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    pat

    12 Sept: EurActiv: James Crisp: Workers will lose jobs in green revolution, admits EU’s energy boss
    Workers will lose their jobs as Europe shifts to a green economy, European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic has admitted, amid warnings the world faces political and economic turmoil not witnessed since the 1930s.
    Sefcovic made an impassioned plea for national governments to make sure that no one was thrown on the scrapheap of the green revolution. But, he added, “climate change is here and it poses an imminent danger.”…
    The change could be a goldmine for jobs and growth, he said, but “we do not want to see anyone left behind”.
    Some 9 million Europeans work in green industries, with 18 million expected to by 2030, he added…
    Failing to ensure what NGOs and trade unions call as “just transition” would sow the seeds for anger and extremism, delegates heard at the Transition to the Green Economy Conference in Bratislava, Slovakia, where Sefcovic was speaking last Tuesday…
    http://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/tuesday-workers-will-lose-jobs-in-green-revolution-admits-eus-energy-boss/

    T2gE – Transition to the Green Economy – Bratislava 6-7 Sept 2016
    The focus of the discussions will be on actions of key stakeholders, including financial and investments ones…
    The conference is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme with a contribution of Norwegian embassy and Norway grants…

    (LINK) T2gE draft agenda
    The programme is being prepared by the Ministry of the Environment of the Slovak Republic in a close cooperation with the European Commission, the European Environment Agency and the OECD…
    http://www.t2ge.eu/

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    pat

    12 Sept: Daily Caller: Chris White: George Soros Bails Out Musk With $305 Mil SolarCity Investment
    A private investment fund tied to Quantum Strategic Partners Ltd provided the company the bulk of the investment. Soros Fund Management LLC advised the fund.
    The deal also includes an 18-year-loan with several other investment groups, the company said Monday in a press release…
    Soros, who is the 29th wealthiest person in the world, pledged to spend $1 billion of his own money in 2009 to back green energy initiatives. He also placed troves of money behind the liberal Climate Policy Initiative think tank, according to The Guardian.
    http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/12/george-soros-bails-out-musk-with-305-mil-solarcity-investment/

    links to submission:

    12 Sept: ClimateChangeNews: Ed King: Saudi Arabia warns UN over 1.5C climate study
    Riyadh says IPCC must retain independence from political process, and will not be able to offer full picture of climate challenges for governments
    Science should not be the sole basis on which efforts to tackle climate change are assessed, the Saudi Arabian government has said in a letter to the UN.
    In a 2-page submission (LINK) the oil-rich Kingdom argues socioeconomic factors facing individual states should be given equal weighting to scientific reports and data.
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/09/12/saudi-arabia-warns-un-over-1-5c-climate-study/

    ***allies, what allies?

    12 Sept: ClimateChangeNews: Ed King: Christiana Figueres departs UN secretary general race
    Architect of 2015 Paris climate deal hoped record of multilateral success would deliver UNSG role, but has decided to withdraw from contest after taking soundings from ***allies
    But a series of straw polls among the UN Security Council saw Figueres finish ***close to bottom, receiving support from just two countries…
    Portugal’s former prime minister Antonio Guterres topped a 9 September poll with 10 of the Council’s 15 members voting in his favour, just ahead of Slovakia’s Miroslav Lajcak in second.
    Nine candidates remain in the running for the UN secretary general post, with an appointment due by December.
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/09/12/christiana-figueres-departs-un-secretary-general-race/

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    pat

    12 Sept: NatureWorldNews: Teachers’ Climate Change Beliefs May Influence Students, Study Shows
    By Joyce Marucot
    A study published in the journal PLOS ONE (LINK) reveals that teachers’ climate change beliefs may influence students. However, students can still deduce the cause of climate change independently, and does(sic) not really rely on their teachers’ beliefs completely.
    The study surveyed 369 middle school students from coastal North Carolina, a region that has a high-risk of sea levels rising and other associated effects of climate change. And while adults’ view of climate change is from worldview and ideology, middle school students are chosen for the study because they are at an age where they are starting to form their own beliefs and opinions about things they see and learn.
    Most of the teachers believe that climate change is caused by humans, and they share this view with at least 95 percent of climate scientists…
    http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/28510/20160912/teachers-climate-change-beliefs-may-influence-students-study-shows.htm

    McDuff, below, is author of “Sacred Acts: How Churches are Working to Protect Earth’s Climate” with Foreword by Bill McKibben:

    10 Sept: CharlotteObserver: Mallory McDuff: My student missed class… to sue the government over climate change
    (Mallory McDuff, Ph.D. teaches at Warren Wilson College in Asheville, NC)
    At the small liberal arts college where I teach, it’s hard for students to miss class with any degree of anonymity.
    But last semester, one of my students, Kelsey Juliana, gave the most compelling excuse for missing class that I’ve heard in 16 years of teaching. She was flying to Oregon to sue the federal government for failure to protect youth from climate change’s impacts.
    As a teacher, writer, and mother, I call that an excused absence…
    On April 8, 2016, the federal District Court in Eugene, Ore., decided in favor of 21 plaintiffs, ages 8-19 years old, and Dr. James Hansen, in their case brought against the federal government and the fossil fuel industry…
    And in this divisive political season, I want my children, my students and other parents to know that youth are taking legal action to protect their right to a healthy future…
    As a teacher, I have ferried students to climate rallies, participated in climate action trainings and designed climate justice tours across the state of North Carolina…
    The climate movement needs diverse tactics and strategies at different scales, and I need to harness my own work to something larger than my local actions…
    http://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/op-ed/article100925097.html

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    pat

    About the writer: Geoffrey Supran is a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University working with Naomi Oreskes. He obtained his PhD in Materials Science and Engineering from MIT, where he led the Fossil Free MIT divestment campaign. He holds a B.A. in physics from Trinity College, Cambridge. Geoffrey was born and raised in the UK and grew up with the BBC. He currently works in Boston, but his dad sometimes sends him recordings of BBC science reports to remind him of home.

    12 Sept: Guardian: Geoffrey Supran: BBC climate coverage is evolving, but too slowly
    While the BBC no longer gives climate denial and science equal air time, it continues to struggle with creeping false balance
    For years, the BBC has been criticised for the false balance of its climate change coverage. And for years, the BBC has apparently been doing “ongoing work” to fix it. So far, however, this ‘reform’ has been more like a triumph of the middling. Yes, the BBC may broadcast less outright misinformation, but as a scientist and a citizen, I still feel let down by its continually careless handling of climate denial – most recently two weeks ago. This nod to mediocrity is a disservice to science, to public trust, and to the biggest news story in the world. And it is a huge, missed opportunity.
    As a young PhD graduate working on climate change solutions, I am confronted daily by a world where the warnings of science are undercut by Fox ‘News’ and its ilk. It is a very different world to the trustworthy BBC broadcasts of David Attenborough and the Royal Institution Christmas Lectures that I grew up with, which helped inspire me to become a scientist. But as a recent BBC News segment by Science Editor David Shukman sadly reminded me, those worlds can too easily collide…
    The public absolutely deserve to hear the debate. But they also deserve to know that the debate is political, not scientific. They deserve to know that science-wise, one side is right and the other is wrong. They deserve to know that scientists unanimously agree that humans are causing climate change. And they deserve to know that President Trump would be the only leader in the world to oppose that consensus…
    And last month, when Brian Cox was confronted by a climate denier on live television, he too left no room for confusion. There is “absolute, absolute consensus,” he underscored…
    I hope that David Shukman and his team understand that my constructive criticism of the BBC is only tough love…
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/sep/12/bbc-climate-coverage-is-evolving-but-too-slowly

    extraordinary stuff, even for The Guardian.

    12 Sept: ClimateChangeNews: Ed King: UN urged to hold world leaders’ climate ***bash every five years
    Marshall Islands president says heads of state need regular reminders about threat posed by global warming
    World leaders would be compelled to attend a UN climate summit every five years from 2020, under plans published by the Marshall Islands last week.
    It wants a regular repeat of the 2014 New York summit convened by Ban Ki-moon, which saw US president Barack Obama lead fellow heads of state in committing to a new climate pact…
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/09/12/un-urged-to-hold-world-leaders-climate-bash-every-five-years/

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    pat

    12 Sept: Yale E360: Bill McKibben: Why We Need a Carbon Tax, And Why It Won’t Be Enough
    Putting a price on carbon is an idea whose time has come, with even Big Oil signaling it may drop its long-standing opposition to a carbon tax. But the question is, has it come too late?
    Bernie Sanders campaigned all year on a straight-up carbon tax, and though Hillary Clinton hasn’t signed on to that, her team on the Democratic Party platform committee did agree to compromise language calling for pricing carbon and methane to reflect their “negative externalities.”
    (Full disclosure: serving as a Sanders representative on the platform committee, I put forward the tax resolution on his behalf, and, after it failed, put forward the language on carbon pricing.)…
    Oh, and the Trump candidacy just might be Titanic enough to return control of the U.S. Senate to Team Democrat, whose likely captain — majority-leader-in waiting Chuck Schumer — has begun making serious noises about carbon pricing as a revenue source for a strapped government…
    Since every action of a modern life involves using fossil fuel, the only way to get enough change is to send a price signal through the matrix, so that everyone from investors to car buyers to electric-toothbrush-users will find their behavior changing automatically. It’s the one big action that encompasses all the others. As Camila Thorndike, the dynamic young leader of an effort to get a carbon price passed in Oregon, told the Democrats at their platform hearings, “As a cross-sector and market-based solution, a carbon tax empowers business to profitably transition to the clean-energy economy.” That may sound a little wonky, but she added that she and many other young women she knew were wondering whether they should have children in a world of inexorably rising temperatures…

    Probably the best hope for a price on carbon that kept going up, in order to keep the pressure on carbon emissions, is the so-called “fee-and-dividend” approach that Citizens Climate Lobby, the eminent climatologist James Hansen, and others like Thorndike, have tirelessly advocated. It sets a price on carbon, and then rebates all the revenue straight to citizens, perhaps even sending them a monthly check…
    It should be a kind of perpetual motion machine, a virtuous cycle…
    We are, you might say, in a war, and if that’s the case then think of a price on carbon as the infantry. It can get things done, but it’s going to need the Navy, the Air Force, and the Marines, as well…
    http://e360.yale.edu/feature/why_we_need_a_carbon_tax_and_why_it_won_be_enough/3033/

    12 Sept: KTVZ: Eric Tegethoff: Youth suing feds over climate change due in Eugene court
    Claim government has failed to protect the planet
    EUGENE, Ore. – A group of young plaintiffs is getting their day in court once again Tuesday in Eugene, arguing that the federal government’s inaction on climate change is directly harming the well-being of America’s youngest generation…
    The federal government is asking that the case be dismissed…
    Gregory said companies such as Exxon have joined the federal government in trying to stop this case from going forward, not allowing these young people to have a proper day in court.
    “What the children want and all they want is to put the best scientists up on the witness stand and have the scientists say whether or not the federal government was a substantial cause of the problem and if so, what is the way to solve the problem,” he added.
    Oral arguments for the case will take place at 10 a.m. at the Wayne Lyman Morse United States Courthouse. A press conference will be held immediately following the hearing, which is expected to be around noon.
    http://www.ktvz.com/news/youth-suing-feds-over-climate-change-due-in-eugene-court/41640692

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    One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts Maiden Speech to the Australian Senate
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnfEi740iQU
    or https://youtu.be/VnfEi740iQU

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      Yonniestone

      And the pants wetting has already begun One Nation senator snubbed after speech

      Just can’t wipe the smile off my silly purple face. :)

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        AndyG55

        Of course the Greens didn’t like it..

        … he has just totally highlighted, then totally eviscerated their whole totalitarian agenda. !!

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        AndyG55

        What was the words he used for the UN??

        UNELECTED SWILL ???

        Well done Malcolm. :-)

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        • #
          Yonniestone

          I particularly liked,

          ‘Flannery beclowned himself saying at the start of this century Brisbane’s dams will never be full again. Aren’t we all sick of it? Because the Australian public is!’

          Beclowned, I like the cut of his jib. :)

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        Analitik

        Snubbed by the Greens? That’s like being red thumbed here – a sign that a telling blow has been made.

        Off to send my congratulations to Senator Roberts (again since I did the same after the Q&A ambush)

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      AndyG55

      Gutsy.

      Whether you agree or not..

      Whether you think he went a bit far, or NOT…

      It has now all been said in parliament..

      …and people WILL hopefully now start to listen….

      .. and maybe even investigate further than the rabid AGW propaganda. :-)

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      Analitik

      For those who prefer reading, his speech on his FaceBook page
      https://www.facebook.com/malcolmrobertsonenation/posts/917363948407486:0

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      Andrew McRae

      I got to 5:55 and grimaced, paused it, wondered if I could bear to hear any more.
      Clicked play again, hoping the worst was over.
      Nope.
      Three major falsehoods in the first 6 minutes, one of them about his own expertise. (By context he implied he had training in atmospheric physics specific to global warming, but has never been taught any more about it than a first year engineering student and he clearly doesn’t even remember that much.)
      Then an absolute slayer-class howler about the SLoT at 6:40. He’s asking basic climate questions, and asking them rhetorically, even though they have empirically verifiable answers and those answers are the opposite of his foregone beliefs.
      Once discredited on an entirely empirical issue, whatever else he said after that will make no difference.

      It’s all over, folks. Pack up the placards and the ticker tape and go home.

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        AndyG55

        Mr Luke Warmer, you are welcome to show that CO2 causes warming in an open convective atmosphere.

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          Andrew McRae

          Have done several times, but you aren’t interested in applying Scientific method.

          By the same token, you are welcome to show how the GHE would violate 2LoT, or how any perfectly compensating mechanism would not violate 3LoT.
          And good luck with obeying conservation of mass, lol.

          This is 1st year engineering stuff which neither you nor Roberts can remember.

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          AndyG55

          YAWN.

          A simplified speech aimed at a political audience.

          He kept the science dumbed-down to suit, but still hit all the right targets

          Seems 1st year is about as far as you got.

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        Analitik

        “Always with them negative waves”

        Lighten up pal. Malcolm Roberts did not get everything correct and certainly didn’t run through a complete discourse on climate science but he has dared to open up the debate which far too many have been too timid to do.

        Tony Abbot called it “absolute crap” which is why I continue to respect him. He should say it again but is likely to be too loyal to the Party to make Turnbull look the utter twat that he deserves.

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    Paul Bamford

    I notice that the temperature rises and falls 7 times in the “UHA Australia” graph. My questions is, if CO2 makes the temperature rise – What makes it come back down again? If CO2 is consistently rising (within annual variation) why does the temperature not just follow it. Why does it just inexplicably drop back down for a couple of years while CO2 is still increasing? I bet Brian Cox would know, but probably doesn’t want to tell us.

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    Analitik

    ABC The Business, 13 Sept 2016

    My summary of the 2nd half of tonight’s show (one of the few “real” news programs on the ABC)

    China shadow banking collapse?
    Infrastructure “growth” based on shadow loans (5 x GDP in 2015 – 12 trillion Yuan)
    Credit growth: 2006 – US$3 trillion => 2015 – US$34 trillion
    Lack of return from ghost city investments.
    Government backed corporation bond defaults: 2014 – 4, 2015 – 15, 2016 (at current) – 20+
    Short term borrowing to cover long term liabilities > 10% (US subprime mismatch was 2.5%)

    The economic outlook is rapidly getting worse as the next phase of the GFC rolls in.
    What are the odds on a shooting war?

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    D C

    Senator Malcolm Roberts maiden speech should be heeded. https://youtu.be/VnfEi740iQU

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