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Australian Election — too close to call, and Labor minority government is possible

The Tally updates have just stopped for tonight, but things have shifted in the last hour.  Welcome to holidayville-Australia, no one is going to count votes tomorrow. Bizarrely, they’re not even counting on Monday either — (that must be a misprint?)

Apparently we can pay double-triple-overtime for people to work til 2am on a Saturday, but then we all need two days off.

*UPDATE: The delay is probably due to waiting for postal votes to come in. Because of Australia’s preference system, preferences can’t be allocated until all the votes are in. h/t Analitik

Delcons mattered

Turnbull has taken a historic win in 2013 and converted it into a historic mash. Abbott knew what he stood for and carried a lot of people with him. Turnbull stood for nothing-much and communicated that exactly.

Everyone except Bill Shorten said Turnbull was likely to win, tracking to win, or has “won”. Andrew Bolt thought this win was likely to be so weak, so pathetic, even a minority-hobbled-government, that Turnbull should resign. But based on these newer numbers, it might be Shorten doing the minority government thing. Check it out: the magic number is 76 seats — and while 77 percent of the vote is counted, a lot of what’s left is prepoll and preferences, and who knows?

The AEC (Australian Electoral Commission) site calls it LIB-NAT  67 seats,  LABOR 71 Seats, 5 others, and only 7 undecided seats.  UPDATE: Now 66 : 72. One more seat to Labor?

The ABC site uses a different model of preference flows (presumably) and has it as LIB-NAT 67 : LABOR 67 :  5 others, and 11 undecided.

AEC election count Sat 2nd July 2016

….

What kind of minority government is calling?

Of the five independents, only one – Katter — leans more conservatively. Three lean leftish: Xenophon, Greens, and Wilkie. One other, McGowan holds a long conservative seat — probably more in an Oakshott and Windsor spirit methinks — (see her policies here). Oakshott and Windsor lead the career path for MP’s in conservative seats who “lean left”. Good for one term, and gone the next. But then she can hardly betray a Liberal-Base-vote, if the Liberal base didn’t have a Liberal choice to vote for. Voters could get very grumpy when a Gillard was substituted for an Abbott. But there’s not so much to care about if Turnbull is switched for Shorten.

Of the 11 undecided seats on the ABC site they have Labor ahead in 6 seats.

Prepoll voting usually favours the conservative side of politics. But more people are prepoll voting than ever before and the old rules do not apply. Prepoll voting is the “new normal” in all kinds of places.

 ”Nationally, the number of early voters has increased by 44 percent since 2013 with 2.15 million votes cast compared to 1.49 million.”

Everything depends on the prepoll votes. Does it take an organized conservative type person to vote ahead of time? If so, Turnbull may cling on.

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Australian Election -- too close to call, and Labor minority government is possible, 8.6 out of 10 based on 44 ratings

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209 comments to Australian Election — too close to call, and Labor minority government is possible

  • #
    Renato

    Good to see some of the Abbott back-stabbers losing their seats, shame there weren’t more.

    The big winner of this election appears to be Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, who seems to be close to doing what Clive Palmer did last election, but without using the millions he did. I suspect unhappy conservatives shifted to her.

    Interesting that the Liberals pretty much used the same gentlemenly tactics this election that Dennis Napthine used two years ago in Victoria to lose government. With so many attack points that could have been used against extreme green/left Oppositions that they could have put their boots into, both Napthine and Turnball chose not to fight. Mystifying.
    Regards.

    370

    • #
      ghl

      Malcolm has what he wants. According to Laurie Oakes he passed a “fallback” carbon trading regime already.
      He is 61 and cannot enjoy all the smirking “Gotchas” and hostility of political life, he has lots of money, he can retire and enjoy making more.
      He would leave Parliament too disorganised to repeal anything, even if the Libs form government, and Labs support an ETS.
      Let’s face it. he undermined himself, he announced budget moves against medicare users, negative gearers, even GST payers, i.e. everyone, and then retracted them. He’s not that dumb.

      70

      • #
        el gordo

        He has definitely earned a sinecure with some international climate change body.

        130

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Well Malcolm T is a champers socialist, so he could happily walk off, leave a mess and not give one ( which may already be the case….)

          Malcolm is also a Rhodes lad, which means agreement with Rhodes view of wanting a *world govt*.
          As such, the fact Malcolm supports a carbon tax is in line with the UNs plan to literally rule the world.

          But now have a look at where we are – minority govt – socialist “LibLab” PM Malcolm who has created a carbon tax and slyly hidden it and calle dit “:SafeGuard” – safe guarding what you might wonder…..

          And shold Malcolm fall, we have Bill Shortonideas waiting , also of the LibLab socialist collective, ready to rule with a “coalition of the willing” of Socialists.

          Either way, we have chaos coming. In effect we may yet again have another “Gillard” in the offing….and we all know how well that turne dout…

          20

    • #
      Lord Jim

      I heard Hanson’s co-runner in the Qld senate (also likely to get a seat) was a CAGW sceptic with sufficient empirical knowledge to blow the whole boondoggle out of the water.

      371

    • #
      Aussieguy

      Good to see some of the Abbott back-stabbers losing their seats, shame there weren’t more.

      The two most notable are Wyatt Roy (in Longman) and Fiona Scott (in Lindsay).

      For Wyatt Roy
      => He was instrumental in bringing Turnbull into power.
      => Not many LNP folks turned up to help him with grassroots campaign as a result.
      => Delcons parked their votes in One Nation for the seat of Longman. (Close to 9% of the votes)…So you are right for this specific seat, Renato.

      For Fiona Scott
      => Abbott backed her in-person for 2013 Election. He stuck his neck out for her, she turned on him for Turnbull.
      => The people in Lindsay seat don’t forget that kind of treachery. And in their eyes, treachery doesn’t go unpunished.
      => Most people parked their votes with ALP, Independents, and Xenophon Team.

      You’ll find most Conservatives (Delcons) see this as punishing a child for doing wrong. To teach them a lesson for their treachery…To send a clear message to that Liberal pollster Mark Textor. I think his comment (“The qualitative evidence is they don’t matter”); angered most Conservatives.

      It is that kind of arrogance that really ticks people off. Do they matter now, Mr Textor? *rolls eyes*


      On a side note…

      I took a look at the results of the seat I’m in (Greenway).

      …Most people dump their vote in the ALP and Independents. That shouldn’t be too surprising, as its a strong ALP seat. This is the same seat that had that Jaymes Diaz guy. The one who couldn’t name Abbott’s key policies in 2013 Election when a Ch10 reporter asked him! He became a Internet viral video!

      The LNP practically handed the seat to the ALP because of Diaz family had big control in this seat. Effectively, the father was the power broker. One son was the campaign manager, and the other son (Jaymes) was the candidate. Abbott couldn’t do a thing about this, and he had to tolerate this nonsense.

      In this Election, NSW LNP branch over-rid Diaz family and threw in their own candidate: Yvonne Keane…They still lost! Mainly because most don’t like Turnbull. (I asked around).

      Interesting that the Liberals pretty much used the same gentlemenly tactics this election that Dennis Napthine used two years ago in Victoria to lose government. With so many attack points that could have been used against extreme green/left Oppositions that they could have put their boots into, both Napthine and Turnball chose not to fight. Mystifying.
      Regards.

      Generally, Conservatives are too nice and believe in an honourable and fair fight. To put it simply, they fight by Queensberry rules. They don’t understand their rivals don’t follow rules and will outright lie and cheat because they know they won’t be held accountable. Shorten’s “Medi-scare” campaign worked because LNP didn’t counter and kill the lie. Turnbull let it thrive and fester! Conservatives naturally suck at spreading their message and explaining themselves (intellectual laziness?). They need to learn at pushing out their message better. This is especially important when countering big union campaigning. (Like from ACTU, TWU, CFMEU, etc).

      Any way, I don’t know about Dennis Napthine, but Malcolm Turnbull can be viewed as a Perfumed Prince.

      An explanation of a Perfumed Prince can be found here.
      => http://www.processexcellencenetwork.com/organizational-change/columns/the-8-laws-of-leadership-a-perfumed-prince-will-ne

      Note the characteristics being described in the article and how it closely aligns with Turnbull. Also note how the 8 Laws of leadership seem more fitting with Abbott.



      Finally, most people believed the biggest loss when Turnbull came to power was Abbott. Not so. Abbott is just the front-end. It was his Chief of Staff and the folks Abbott surrounded himself with. Like her or hate her, Peta Credlin is a political strategic thinker. If you see her on SkyNews (she’s a regular now), you come to realise this Conservative woman knows her $hit. It explains why Abbott refused to get rid of her and why Turnbull has become a flop in a strategic sense. (Getting rid of Abbott also killed off the most effective strategic thinker and campaign folks the LNP had in recent times!)

      Just think about that folks. By backstabbing Abbott, they also blew their own foot off! …The loss of Abbott’s people really shows with the Turnbull Govt in this election. Look at the scoreboard folks!

      => Turnbull never mended the fence with Conservatives. He never resolved backstabbing Abbott with the voting base. (Nor with Abbott’s people as they rejected his offer to stay with the party. Most have left and gone onto other things).

      => Turnbull rather hang out with ABC folks and have controlled interviews with Alan Jones on 2GB. (Jones is effectively neutered from being his usual self)…The exact opposite of Abbott and Howard. Those two took Jones head-on and argued the merits of their policies.

      => Turnbull doesn’t really have a clear, step-by-step strategic plan. No one is really sure what he’s doing and why. Other LNP folks see him as soft, because of his vagueness.

      => The LNP campaigning is weak as watered-down Diet Coke. (Allowing Shorten to catch up and having a chance to be PM).
      ==> They didn’t aggressive slap down ALP and Union lies. They just ignored it and presumed the public would figure it out! (Intellectual laziness! …You have to explain and counterattack everything!)

      => Turnbull himself is unrelatable in terms of character. (He isn’t the kind of guy you want fighting beside you in the trenches as you are about to be overrun).
      ==> Turnbull was never interviewed by Ray Hadley on 2GB. (You don’t have to like the guy, but he has a huge listening base. The very base who likes Howard and Abbott because they showed up and roughed it on the air waves with Hadley).

      => Superannuation. Previously, the ALP (under Gillard) saw the people’s money as a honey pot to fund their spending. They tinkered with it (last I checked it was 22 changes!). Everyone thought the LNP was different. Until they started looking at messing with superannuation too! This pissed off a considerable number of LNP base. (No surprise that some would park their vote with an independent).
      ==> The worst was when Turnbull Govt tried to explain it away or play it down! …You can’t BS people about their money! Especially when they’re about to retire! *face palm*


      Effectively, one can see this will become another hung situation where the Senate will be a “dog’s breakfast” for whoever wins. Regardless, the next three years are going hurt. Look after yourselves folks, because this is gonna get bumpy!

      360

      • #
        brill

        I’m in Wyatt Roy’s electorate. I voted for Hanson and every other minor party or independent before finally ticking his box (Greens last, ALP second last). Said to the ladies handing out vote cards when they tried to give me one “He lost my vote when he backed Turnbull” They laughed. Bet they are not laughing now. I think he will scrape in simply because so many people voted for Hanson’s party and like me they would prefer LNP to the other two.

        190

        • #
          PeterPetrum

          Brill, he’s gone! Conceded defeat. Thanks for helping get rid of one of the traitors I really wanted to see the end of. Back to flipping burgers at Maccas!

          40

      • #
        Ross

        Aussieguy

        It looks like his MSM mates are starting to turn on Turnbull already. I wonder how long he can tolerate it?

        40

        • #
          Aussieguy

          It looks like his MSM mates are starting to turn on Turnbull already. I wonder how long he can tolerate it?

          The shine of the Prince has worn off in this Election and the MSM are realising the public ain’t buying the nonsense. I suspect the Perfumed Prince himself will stay as long as he can before his own head is forced on to the chopping block. LNP folks will question/doubt his leadership abilities after this Election, so don’t be too surprised if this starts something within the LNP. His MSM mates will have no choice but to turn, else the public will notice something isn’t smelling right. (One can only deceive the public for so long until reality doesn’t meet what has been told; and the public awakens by tuning out…Look what happened to Gillard. Only die-hard ALP supporters cheer for her. Everyone else ignores her. Its why Shorten never got her to campaign for him! He pulled out Bob Hawke instead!)


          Its pretty much a disaster for the Turnbull Govt.

          => Turnbull himself rode on his initial popularity and did NOTHING with it. He could’ve expended some popularity to get tangible things done. (Popularity will go down with time, so you might as well expend some to fulfill some policies).

          => They kicked off this Election in the form of a Double Dissolution…What has that achieved? What was the point?!
          ==> The Senate is likely to have MORE crossbenchers that the LNP needs to woo; just to get anything passed! (Turnbull isn’t exactly the charismatic type to woo others to his view!)

          => They didn’t fight tooth and nail. (They never campaigned on the reason for this Election and explained “why” to the public. Didn’t even gun after Shorten over his involvement with TWU gunning for driver-owner truckies; economically cornered into joining a union. Or the union take-over of the CFA in Victoria. That ad with the tradie was poor…Even though the “fake tradie” turned out to be a real one!). The whole campaign has been dull, passive, and boring. LNP was not inspiring at all.

          => They didn’t firm up their base. It honestly seems like Turnbull’s campaign team has contempt for Conservatives to an arrogant level.
          ==> You don’t abandon your base to get more of the Centre! You’re supposed to firm up the base and invite more of the Centre in!
          ==> Abbott has tried to calm Conservatives down. It didn’t work and the results reflect it. A deep-seeded anger has been unleashed upon the LNP.

          Turnbull is now praying/hoping that the pre-poll postal votes will swing his way.

          130

          • #
            handjive

            The Twistcow achieved one thing, an ETS/carbon (sic) tax:

            Jonova, May, 2016: From July 1, coincidentally the day before the election, the Coalition’s “safeguard mechanism” within its Direct Action Plan will
            come into force.

            40

      • #
        Lloydww

        Great analysis. Agree with almost every word.

        40

      • #
        Renato

        Yes, the Perfumed Prince description seems very applicable to Malcolm Turnball. At the end of the day, all the real accomplishments of the Coalition government were Abbott’s not his.

        Peter Hendy was the other notable back-stabber who lost his seat, and who couldn’t get volunteers to support his campaign.
        Regards,
        Renato

        40

    • #

      Pauline Hanson is a surprise, a good result with very little advertising. Hope the No.2 in Qld Malcolm Roberts gets up. It seems that the Pauline Hanson party also did well in NSW and WA senate and may fill positions 11 or 12. I had a look at the party platform -makes more sense than ALA who should think about merging. The policy on energy is good -cheapest energy better for people and better for business/employment. The Greens will have reduced numbers. Only in Tasmania will they get 2 senators. SH-Y did poorly in SA. If it would have been an ordinary election she would have lost. She will be up for election in 3 years time. The greens want to hit energy cost and business leading to unemployment as is Spain.
      Next battles will be movement towards enacting ETS (Turnbull or Shorten), marriage act, and racist change to the constitution to give more handouts and power to aborigines. At least Pauline Hanson will be against these three. Probably more would have voted for her party if they had known.

      70

  • #
    Timo Soren

    Not finishing counting votes opens a whole new issue wrt corruption and vote stealing.

    131

    • #
      ivan

      You have to give them time to ‘fix’ the counting computer.
      http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/06/14/buggy_votecounting_software_borks_election/

      71

      • #
        Truthseeker

        The AEC Virtual Tally Room has 7 “undecided”. But when you look at those seven they are clearly 6 for L/NP and 1 for Labor, there is nothing “undecided” about them.

        Not sure what makes them “undecided”.

        71

        • #
          AndyG55

          Looking at Flynn and Braddon. They have been called, for Labor

          But there are a whole swag of preferences that look to me like they could go strong to the LNP.

          60

      • #
        Lord Jim

        You have to give them time to ‘fix’ the counting computer.

        Did I read that right?

        They don’t actually count the votes, just take a random sample and extrapolate the votes.

        12

        • #
          ivan

          That is what it said. The result appears to depend on which random sample they take – something like the pollsters calling the results, they can and do get it wrong.

          10

    • #
      Analitik

      Actually, that’s why there is the 2 day hiatus in vote counting – they want to make sure that ALL postal votes are gathered to the properly supervised counting centres before these are counted.

      120

      • #

        Thanks for that good point. Update added. It makes sense that the AEC can’t start to allocate preferences until all the votes are in.

        50

        • #
          ianl8888

          For counting of votes, allowing several days for all postal votes to turn up has been carried out for a long time.

          Yet if an invoice or “bluey” for you is late in the mail, that’s not an excuse for non-payment. Obviously, stray votes are way more important than injustice.

          One law for the self-appointed elite, another for those that don’t matter.

          60

      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        Anthony Green gave an explanation of that delay right at the end of the ABC coverage early this morning ( about 0045 hrs EST ). After the loss of a number of votes at the last election, new security procedures have been put in place which result in Sunday and Monday being used for additional checking and movement of votes to AEC counting sites from the local polling booths.
        Sorry I can’t provide a link.
        Cheers,
        Dave B

        80

  • #
    TdeF

    While it would be great to see Malcolm removed, it would be better if he won and resigned, the most unpopular unelected PM since Gillard and a result like Gillard’s. I thought Daniel Andrews in the Victorian home of Labor had killed Shorten’s chances but whatever happens, we will be a country once again run in utter confusion by a do nothing house of review.

    So much for all Malcolm’s post election socialist dreams. Obviously as incompetent as he is arrogant, the agile great communicator managed to lose the lot. Another very rich dilettante like Rudd, as Sir Les Patterson would say, a legend in his own lunchtime. Whoever gets the job now will have to deal with Hinch, Hanson, Xenophon and two unworkable houses. Malcolm the wrecker. Nobody loved Malcolm except his ABC and they will drop him and the sneering will start.

    440

    • #
      el gordo

      Talcum wouldn’t resign even if he won by a thin wafer, so its better if the Libs lose and the man falls on his sword and is replaced by Abbott without Peta.

      What the people desire is a well hung unstable government.

      111

      • #
        Bushkid

        As someone on another page said last night, “Malcolm can’t fall on his sword, it’s still stuck in Tony Abbott’s back”.

        100

    • #
      James Murphy

      Looking at the way the election has been reported elsewhere, I read this statement via France24:
      “…The coalition, which headed into the election with a comfortable majority, can afford to lose as many as 13 seats and still hold power and has the backing of the nation’s powerful media…”

      I am not convinced that the coalition government really has the support of the media, but then, compared to the way they treated Abbott, I guess it’s backing of a sort…?

      260

      • #
        el gordo

        France24 think Rupert Murdoch is powerful media, totally ignoring the state run propaganda machines and Fairfax.

        Anyway, Scott may end up getting the job as Opposition leader.

        ‘Pressed further on whether the Coalition had done better under Mr Turnbull than was possible under Mr Abbott, the Treasurer said: “I think that’s obvious.”

        Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-federal-election-2016-andrew-bolt-urges-malcolm-turnbull-to-quit-20160702-gpx6tl.html#ixzz4DHhPvPTQ
        Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

        80

      • #
        climateskeptic

        National % vote for the Greens at almost an all time high, 1.3%. up on the last election

        316

        • #
          AndyG55

          Will be funny to see how many senators they lose. ;-)

          211

        • #
          AndyG55

          You do know that in Qld Senate, One Nation is out polling the Greens. ;-)

          361

          • #
            climateskeptic

            The Germans are all excited beating the Italians here and the beer is flowing freely here. No one here cares about Pauline Pantsdown

            230

            • #
              AndyG55

              I’ll repeat that, seeing it didn’t seem to sink in..

              in Qld, Pauling Hanson is outvoting the Greens. :-)

              Wouldn’t also be great if Nick gets rid of SHY in SA. :-)

              Time will tell.

              331

            • #
              AndyG55

              Here’s a delicious thought for you.

              If the Liberals win say, 75 seats..

              Which candidates are most likely to help him form government. ;-)

              142

              • #
                climateskeptic

                That should be candidate. There is only one I think

                113

              • #
                climateskeptic

                Just looked at the results again after getting up and the Libs tally has shrunk by another 2. The election is slipping away from them. Renewable energy, windfarms and Carbon trading here we come

                215

              • #
                AndyG55

                “There is only one I think”

                Your ignorance shows yet again.

                He would need 1 plus a speaker.

                62

              • #
                AndyG55

                Senate will be controlled by centre and centre right.

                Dream on, you poor, rabid, little Greenie.

                92

              • #
                climateskeptic

                That’s exactly what I mean Noddy, who is 2nd independent after the Mad Hatter likely to support the Libs. There isn’t one

                110

              • #
                AndyG55

                Yawn, poor child-mind.. you really aren’t worth bothering with.

                Greens lose senate seats to the centre and centre-right… try not to cry ;-)

                61

            • #
              AndyG55

              Poor CS, still all alone in Potsdam…

              What’s wrong… no funds for company ?

              Maybe this guy/gay/girl can help keep you company ..

              https://cdn-az.allevents.in/banners/9e481787d29c2b3b37e268927f931e8f

              21

        • #
          el gordo

          The new Greens leader is popular, there is no denying it.

          32

        • #
          Analitik

          National % vote for the Greens at almost an all time high, 1.3%. up on the last election

          That maybe but this election must be a total shock to the greenwash. With the disaffection for the 2 major parties, they would have assumed that these votes would naturally flow to The Greens. Instead, The Greens have lost seats in the Senate and not gained any in the house of Reps indicating a disaffection with them as well. Di Natale tried to run a more populist campaign rather than focussing on the greenwash and the results show he (and hence The Greens’ position) was, by and large, rejected.

          The centrist majority swayed back towards Labor or to Xenephon in this election but the truly disaffected voted mainly to the right. The radical left is smaller than the previous 2 elections would have us (and the media) think – of course, there is no hope of the MSM reporting this.

          241

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        The editorials, with one or two notable exceptions, (guess which papers) supported the return of the LNP.

        30

      • #
        Graham Richards

        Why would anyone take notice of the French media. Lovely mess in France which they unflinchingly support. The French have areal problem with reality in their own surreal f*^#ed up country. Amazing what SOCIALISM can achieve with full media support!

        81

        • #
          James Murphy

          As I live in France, I take notice of the French media – and in my view, it has a diverse range of publications, both in print, and online, wth a diverse range of political views on offer, and they do often strongly disagree with each other. Frankly it makes the Australian media look quite poor by comparison.

          As for the French government, well… idiocy, greed, shortsightedness, and hypocrisy transcends national boundaries, and the French government is not immune.

          10

    • #

      Once again I learn that people do not understand politics, too lazy, too hard. Will have even more unworkable parliament meaning nothing will get through expect their pay rises.
      To be honest this is the best outcome we can hope for. The country is already stuffed. 1 trillion $ out of control debt and this was done under labor minority and then continued under lib majority.

      161

  • #
    Jaymez

    In some ways I would like to see Turnbull lose and be replaced by Abbott in a Peacock/Howard/Downer/Howard type move. Let Labor do what they do best and royally damage Australia making the electorate beg for an Abbott led Government to come to the rescue and Govern for a decade or so. Which is how long it would take to fix all the Labor damage.

    But when I look at the undecided seats with the majority giving the Coalition candidate a small lead, I would expect the Turnbull government to be returned with a wafer thin majority; probably three seats.

    But the Senate is likely to be a dogs breakfast with The Xenophon Team, Pauline Hanson, Jakie Lambie, The Greens and probably two or three other small parties picking up seats. The Coalition will have the same difficulty passing important legislation as before the election, but the electorate would punish them if they called another double dissolution.

    Turnbull played the ‘small target’ during the election, choosing not to raise anything too controversial, and choosing not to attack Shorten over policy and performance. It will give him a hollow victory. He is like Chamberlain holding the agreement signed by Hitler and claiming ‘peace in our time’.

    What will follow is turmoil, and unnecessary giving up of territory to appease the hostile Senate. If the Turnbull government lasts the full term they wont have done anything particularly difficult or nation building. And they will be blamed for the inevitable worsening debt and deficit.

    I can only imagine that Turnbull is hoping for a turnaround in the economy, to ride on its coattails, but that won’t happen. Or perhaps he thinks his ‘enlightened’ approach to climate change will unite Australia behind him. That won’t happen either.

    250

    • #
      MudCrab

      To Chamberlain’s credit he was also the PM who took the UK to war in 1939. He only took the Nazi government’s word once and did make sure his country increased their defence spending in that period. Remember the Hurricane was brand new and the Spitfire even newer. If Britain had gone to war in 1938 it would have done so with biplanes.

      40

      • #
        Another Ian

        Mudcrab

        Chamberlain gets favourable mention in the Haynes workshop manual on the RR Merlin (which is more a history of how it happened) as you mention as having pushed the development of the aircraft side, shadow factories etc.

        20

      • #
        Bob Campbell

        The first production Hurricanes were delivered to the 111 Squadron at RAF Northolt in December 1937.

        00

  • #
    TdeF

    Fiona Scott is another who knifed Abbott and has now lost her seat. How many people were supported and directly helped by Abbott into parliament then voted to remove him only to find they lost preselection or their seat? You have to think Turnbull brought out the worst in people and the public has punished them for it. For the two years Abbott was our PM and his list of achievements is remarkable and he is now belatedly recognized as a prescient voice on the world stage. Malcolm tried to ride on his coattails to victory but no one liked it. Without Andrews, Shorten would have romped home.

    270

    • #
      clive

      Did you notice,Cabinet Secretary Arthur Sinodinos blamed Abbott for the poor election result.They still don’t get it,do they?

      00

  • #
    TdeF

    Now the AEC has Labor leading, 69 to 64.

    50

    • #
      TdeF

      You have to think the ABC is using preference flows from the last election as they have nothing else. The AEC is possibly using the real results from polling, showing that preferences have altered greatly. Perhaps people are understanding that often their preferences are more important than their primary vote. If the AEC numbers are right, Bill Shorten could be forming government and we are looking at another single term Liberal government gone.

      110

  • #
    KinkyKeith

    In one sense it may be said that this result, so far, is Australia’s Brexit revolt.

    Voters are sending the message to Canberra that they demand greater accountability in political life and want a better deal from politicians.

    Against the emerging backdrop of voter revolt we are experiencing a new political scene in Australia.

    The Victorian Country Fire scam with its jobs for the boys plan that drew intense public reaction may just be the start of the new Peasants Revolt and the template for future scrutiny of politicians by voters.

    Here’s hoping.

    KK

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    • #
      el gordo

      The Chinese know all about peasant revolts but its not in our culture, yet.

      Dennis Jensen bombed out.

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      • #
        KinkyKeith

        My lower house vote was a reflection of what the Newcastle political scene has always been about; self interested politicians. I hear that Trump even scored a few hits.

        In the upper house after wrestling the ballot paper into the booth there were votes for candidates supported by comments on this site.

        Leyonhjelm, 2 Christian Democrats, 2 Family first, Conchetta FV Wells, 2 A LA and the rest Christian democrats up to the 12.

        KK

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        • #
          Lord Jim

          n the upper house after wrestling the ballot paper into the booth

          Yeah, isn’t it funny how we get a 2 metre long senate ballot paper in a 0.5 metre booth (or thereabouts).
          Certainly makes it difficult to vote below the line.

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          • #
            Annie

            That was bad enough. It was even worse trying to stuff my completed ‘table runner’ into an already rather full ballot box. I wanted to make sure it couldn’t be pulled out again!

            81

  • #
    James Bradley

    The Libs are starting the spin about the ‘Medicare Lie’ – no one I know was ever conned by that.

    The Liberal Party are truly ‘Delusional Conservatives’ if they ignore the truth:

    They pulled down a good Prime Minister in Tony Abbott following negative media promulgated by Turnbull and Bishop white-anting through the ABC and Fairfax.

    Turnbull ran a scare campaign within the LNP based on his own false media hype and dislodged Abbott.

    After voting Liberal for the last 40 years I could not bring myself to vote for a party that embraced the values of Malcolm Turnbull.

    I could not vote for Same Sex Marriage, Climate Change, The new Cap-n-Trade Carbon Tax, Taxing Superannuation, Spending More, Saving Less.

    Don’t be fooled by the Turnbull spin – this was not about Medicare Lies.

    This was about having no conservative party in the House of Representaives.

    This was about having no conservative representation in government.

    This was about having no difference between Liberal and Labor agenda.

    This was about removing my right to choose conservative values.

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    • #
      Analitik

      I disagree about the Medicare scare campaign – while we may have seen it as the shallow desperate gambit of a man with no policies to stand on (even negative ones like Abbott’s “stop the boats” and “get rid of The Carbon Tax”, many of the normal public who don’t pay much attention to day to day politics would have been drawn in. Particularly with the ACTU funded ads where the doctor wombled on about patients not being able to afford to see him.

      South Australians need to write to Cory Bernardi to formalise a conservative wing of the Liberal Party so that the conservatives (and centrists!) get their views openly represented rather than everything being hidden in backroom discussions.

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    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      They pulled down a good Prime Minister in Tony Abbott following negative media promulgated by Turnbull and Bishop white-anting through the ABC and Fairfax.

      Exactly.

      The Mediscare spin is the misdirection the disloyal Turnbull fools are trying to use to avoid facing up to the consequences of their backstabbing.

      Of course, the left leaning media are going along with it too (indeed, even promoting it) in an effort to cover up their support for Turnbull’s treachery.

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    • #
      Terence M

      I think Turnbull achieved even more than he expected.
      1 – undermined Abbott, by stealth,
      2 – Became PM, by stealth
      3 – Introduced the ETS, by steath,
      4 – Ruined the Liberal Party, by stealth
      5 – Kept his relationship with the banksters hidden,
      6 – Ensured the royal commission into unions was buried.

      Etc.

      the ,
      White anted

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    • #
      MudCrab

      One of the things to consider with the MediScare is that Turnbull’s own policies did nothing to suggest otherwise.

      I admit that I got my “DelCon 4 Eva” tattoo inked onto my chest rather early into the election campaign and may not have been following as closely as I could, but what exactly was the Liberal campaign about?

      ‘Only we have a plan for the economy’ and ‘Australia cannot afford another Labor Government’.

      That’s… well… a bit generalised. By having his campaign based solely around ‘I’m Malcolm Turnbull and I’m really popular’ left a lot of blanks for people to fill in for themselves. MediScare became a viable tactic because Turnbull ran with such a vague and generalised campaign that selling Medicare MIGHT have been on the books.

      Sigh. If only Turnbull had been a Great Communicator who could have explained to the voters what he was really planning to do.

      50

    • #
      Dr Clam

      Amen to that, James – if I didn’t live in a Nationals seat I would have voted informal. As it was I had the enormous pleasure of putting Mr Windsor dead last. :D

      00

  • #
    Robert

    It looks as though the early prediction of a Coalition win is not all that certain now as the pre poll votes are counted, and even Mr. Turnbull’s victory speech could be in doubt.

    Irrespective of the eventual winner, the electorate has delivered a message to Mr. Turnbull that they did not support his tactic of white-anting the former PM whilst in his cabinet with the help of “his” ABC, nor for that matter Messers. Oakeshott and Windsor for previously betraying their conservative electorates. As well some of the 54 deservedly losing their seats they took others with them. Although the Palmer Party bombed-out we still have the legacy of a new carbon landmine which he left, and which will be difficult to remove.

    I cannot see much chance of the Coalition getting a lot through the Senate even if eventually win.

    Australia seems to be the loser in this election, whatever the result, and there are 54 people to blame including their ring leader.

    How long before the boats start coming again?

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    • #
      Bushkid

      Robert, if the first boats haven’t already pushed off from our northern neighbours shores I’ll be extremely surprised. I just hope someone with a smidgen of intelligence has got the right assets deployed to intercept and return them quick smart.

      10

  • #
    PeterPetrum

    Jo, after looking at the AEC site I think this might explain the difference between them and the ABC. It is likely at this stage that the AEC is only looking at primary votes, while the ABC election guru had already factored in the known and stated preferences of minor parties. Labor voters probably voted for Labor, giving them a higher primary vote. Many Liberal voters, that were, probably have voted for a minor party with their second, third or fourth preference going to Libs. The AEC may not have registered this yet, as the poor wee souls are so exhausted that they have to take two days off! Incredible!

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    • #
      Peter C

      It is a long day for the AEC staff. They open the polling booths at 8 am, say arrive at 7:30.
      Polls close at 6pm, then they count votes until 11pm.

      Maybe we need a different counting team.

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  • #
    Manfred

    no one is going to count votes tomorrow.

    Amazing that a General Election isn’t accorded the importance and urgency of simply being got on with.
    Is that the national priority accorded to the process of Democracy? Those bereft of Democracy would feel acutely otherwise. Perhaps it’s exactly that kind of laissez-faire thinking of the frog in the kettle, an unnoticed slide toward boiling point, with a trivial flash of surprise at the end as it’s all over?

    On the up-side, nothing meddlesome getting done by whatever Government might be construed by many as a blessing in disguise. Reminds me of someone who once suggested that it would take the bureaucracy and administration staff of a university many months to realise that there were no students on campus.

    60

    • #
      Rod Stuart

      “It’s not the people who vote that count. It’s the people who count the votes”.
      Kruschev?

      51

      • #
        ROM

        “It’s not the people who vote that count. It’s the people who count the votes”.

        Kruschev?

        Joseph Djugashvili, aka “Comrade Stalin”.

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  • #
    Another Ian

    Jo

    Here’s a distraction while you’re awaiting the resumption of counting

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2016/07/02/virtue-signalling-what-where/

    30

  • #
    Another Ian

    Just wondering what might be for breakfast in the Turnbull household this morning?

    50

  • #
    scaper...

    Hats?

    60

  • #
    george

    The Result “Australia LOSES” what else would you call it.

    52

    • #
      scaper...

      A weakened Turnbull is a win for the sceptics.

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      • #
        el gordo

        ‘…a win for sceptics.’

        In a narrow sense that is true, we went out of our way to undermine him, but looking ahead a weakened Turnbull as PM might be a disaster. I draw your attention to ghl’s comment at top of thread.

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        • #
          AndyG55

          As I said above.

          If the Libs get say 74, 75 seats, who might help them form government, and what concessions might be required.

          Who is the most right wing of the “others”?.. One Nation?

          I can’t see One Nation helping the left to form a government.

          And we all know that Pauline thinks AGW is a load of bull droppings.

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          • #
            AndyG55

            Liberals 75 seats, having to rely on Kapper and the One Nation member to form Government.

            Come on.. you KNOW I’m right. !! :-)

            81

            • #
              AndyG55

              HAd coffee now…. not enough though…

              No One Nation in HOR ! Doh ! Senate will be fun though :-)

              Still the big question.

              If its a hung parliament, how would either party get the numbers to form government?

              This could be very interesting.

              41

          • #
            scaper...

            I suspect Pauline will agitate for an inquiry into the science of global warming. From what I know, don’t agree with el gordo’s opinion.

            40

      • #
        James Bradley

        Yep. I agree, scaper.

        A look at the Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will tell the LNP where their votes went.

        Turnbull is weakened by the same amount of backstabbers that originally strengthened him so the LNP will be a little more right of centre now if it’s a hung parliament or minority.

        Now in the case that Labor forms government the conservatives of the LNP are still skeptics and will ensure that their choice for the next leader is both swift and hard right because if nothing else the lesson learned from losing votes to One Nation will sink in.

        If Labor forms a minority or any government they are screwed:

        They can’t blame the economy on Abbott as they and the senate publically rejected all his reforms.

        They now can’t use any of his economic reforms for the above reason.

        The seante will probably be controlled by a very conservative section of the crossbench.

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        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Nice analysis JB.

          40

        • #
          scaper...

          I’ll throw the Nationals into the mix. If the Coalition is to govern, Turnbull will need them and on top of the list of the Nationals’ conditions will be?

          I rest my case.

          40

  • #
    AndyG55

    When Turnbull knifed Abbott, I emailed Turnbull and told him that the people would never elect him as PM. :-)

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  • #
    TdeF

    Whatever the result, you have to wonder if a government without a mandate can survive for three years?

    The previous Senate proved that even a government with a clear mandate and huge majority will not be allowed to fix anything or repeal bad laws like Section 18C. The independents then refused 70% of the laws put up to the senate, which of course required the ALP and Greens to agree with the refusal. That was not review but a total blockage.

    Thanks to the self appointed genius Turnbull and his totally unnecessary double dissolution to help his former Green allies, we may see an Australia unable to govern itself for another six years. At least we are not getting Malcolm’s Very Fast Train. Just his carbon tax.

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    • #
      Dennis

      A mandate is of course winning enough seats to govern

      30

      • #
        scaper...

        A mandate for what??? I don’t recall any policy but a tax cut for business.

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        • #
          TdeF

          Colloquially a mandate is more than the fact of government, it is on a platform of change approved at the General election by large popular vote. Sneaking into a minority government is not mandate for anything and it can fall apart at any time. Abbott had a clear mandate, but could not repeal any of the thousands of laws passed by Rudd and Gillard, except in the early days when PUP was a functioning party. Then Lambie took the position of stopping every bill unless the House of Representatives did what she said. That is not democracy or even a job. It is disappointing to see this disaster back in the Senate for six years. Malcolm can take credit.

          70

        • #
          TdeF

          Yes, Turnbull went to the election as a faux Abbott, on Abbott’s policies without actually asking Abbott what they were! That’s because he planned to introduce a lot of his own like a Republic, same sex marriage by decree, a Very Fast Train for his Green buddies and many more. Then he fell out with the Greens on swapping preferences, so the whole thing fell apart.

          You are right, he ended going into the election on a bunch of Morrison’s tax promises to be implemented over four successive governments. In other words, nothing at all. He did however sneak in a Carbon tax trading scheme which has just started. This was his main aim, so he would be pleased. His banker friends as well. He can retire now to trade in carbon credits.

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    • #

      TdeF – A mandate? Who needs a mandate. Gillard won by 400 votes in corangamite, and promised no carbon tax. I hate to say it, but if Turnbull wins by 0.00001% it’s still a win. And based on that Hung parliament, once a cross bencher has a position of power they won’t want to go to an election unless they are sure they will keep their seat, and their position of power. Katter is not afraid of an election. But McGowan is a much more natural fit with Turnbull (look at her policies).

      Will he need either?

      I don’t believe Turnbull is that different to Gillard. If he wins he wins. The only thing that would reduce his mandate is an actual dependence on an MP vote that was a Defcon.

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      • #
        TdeF

        This talk of a mandate is irrelevant, but remains a concept where governments were elected on promises, just as John Howard promised a GST and still won. No one could dispute his right to introduce one.

        As I remember it, Gillard lost. She had no mandate. However she formed a minority government with Windsor, Oakshott and Wilkie and then Slipper as speaker and of course the Greens on whose preferences most Labor seats utterly depend. Abbott refused to do the same deal or he would have been PM.

        The list of people and organizations to whom Gillard was obligated was endless and she delivered for them, the first one being Bad Bob Brown’s Carbon Tax but it was no longer Gillard’s government. The Greens were on the podium as equal partners, despite only having one seat in the democratic House of Representatives and they rammed through thousands of pieces of legislation, almost none of which Abbott with his giant majority could undo in the next government with a huge mandate given to him democratically in the House of Representatives.

        So we are still suffering from Gillard’s deals, her mad spending, Wayne Swan’s endless promises of and end to debt and sending cheques to people overseas to stimulate the Australian economy. Pink Batts, Building the Education revolution and 50,000 boat people, 1200 deceased.

        However a mandate meant nothing to Jaquie Lambie who simply voted NO to everything, regardless of merit or state issues. Now she is back for another six years.

        Malcolm Turnbull had no policies. He had no mandate as Prime Minister. However we may have to suffer his arrogance for a while before his own party tosses him out, as he has now made likely. Then I would like to see Tony Abbott back to make sense of Turnbull’s mess. He might have a real problem with Pauline Hanson, as he was the one who led the attack on Hanson and she spent six months in jail. It is now all a huge mess only a new election will sort out, all to feed one giant ego in Malcolm Turnbull.

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  • #
    pattoh

    Gentleman start your engines & let the regatta begin!

    10

    • #
      Yonniestone

      That dangerous situation will unfortunately recur under an ALP/Greens government.

      This election was about our policy of stopping the bloats.

      30

      • #
        pattoh

        Sadly Yonnie I feel that this election was all about which version of the NWO Agenda will take primacy.

        ( we will not realize unless we open our eyes or at least put the bloody iPhone back in the pocket)

        At least Mal has his “drop dead money safely offshore.

        81

        • #
          Yonniestone

          I agree with a growing realisation of NWO agendas amongst the populous, my pun on boats was BLOATS (poorly highlighted sorry) which directly relates to your observation.

          I contribute this awareness mostly to the Patriot movements that have emerged around the country, as they say any press is good press.

          51

          • #
            pattoh

            ” any press is good press.”

            The literati from the ABC will run a Shakespearian Tragi-Comedy Fesival in the Morgue over the Libs to distract from the bloodletting in Sussex St.

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  • #
    TedM

    Next, a by (bye) election in the seat of Wentworth.

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  • #
    Robert R

    Result still not known until next week because public servants have to have a holiday on Monday because they worked on Saturday. That figures.

    Well guys, very close to a real hum dinger killer carbon tax again now………and 50% renewables……looks like we’ll be looking for a stretch of the country to live in where we don’t have to look out onto turbines and bump around in synch to the vibrations from them and the [snip] who put them there.

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  • #
    RexAlan

    I find it unbelievable that we can get fined for not voting but they can simply take two days of from counting.

    51

  • #
    RexAlan

    Sorry, they are apparently counting on Monday, according to the SMH.

    “The Australian Electoral Commission will not begin counting House of Representatives ballots until Tuesday, after pre-poll ballots for the Senate are counted on Monday”.

    40

  • #
    Raven

    Leigh Sales grilled Mr Shorten on his central election claims that Mr Turnbull wanted to privatise Medicare, calling it “an overreach”.
    The barrage of abuse followed with viewers accusing Sales of bias toward the Coalition.

    ABC’s Leigh Sales republishes ‘relentless’ Twitter abuse

    The ABC accused of bias toward the Coalition?
    That’s a new one!

    100

    • #
      Analitik

      That clearly shows how reliance on social media gives an overly leftist impression of public opinion.

      Leigh Sales seemed to be fairly left wing in her bias early on but moved to the center as the night dragged on. Good on her for exposing the viscous and cowardly anonymous nature of these attacks

      81

      • #
        Raven

        Yes, good on her indeed.
        I must say though, having watched a few of her interviews with Malcolm, I did think he kinda charmed her. ;)

        10

    • #
      Bushkid

      Good grief, in the article Raven links to Clemantine Ford complains about abusive twitter comments!!!!!

      That’s rich, coming from the queen of putrescent twitter abuse herself! After all, she’s the architect of the “F*** Tony Abbott” T-shirts isn’t she? Don’t dish it if you can’t take it, sister!

      00

  • #
    Ross

    The other massive losers are Cosby and Textor.
    Lost on Brexit and now this election ( remember “the Abbot supporters are not important”) Maybe C & T aren’t that clever after all.

    100

  • #
    Nezysquared

    I’ve heard the usual media take on the result of this election and the various comments in this newspaper have tended to echo this heavily orchestrated agenda. Medicare, same sex marriage, spending, taxation, superannuation, indigenous recognition in the constitution etc etc ad infinitum – often pointlessly contrived arguments which are often based in half truth and in reality have no bearing on the daily activities of average people. Australia remains a large continent, but in many ways a small country – certainly politically. It is a great country which is capable of so much more than it achieves but is held back by the endless diversion of attention on issues which the media hacks would have us believe are important. They are not. For the majority of people Australia is still the country of a fair go where work is to be rewarded and the principle of trust is paramount. This latest election of our political officials (remember they are public servants) mirrors the sad state of affairs we have allowed them to create. For the vocal but committed few (members of political parties) on all sides of politics their vote would have been based purely on party lines. For the rest of us however, we almost admit defeat. We vote for the least worst of the alternatives on the ballot paper and often base this last minute judgement on some loose principle or idea and make our mark next to a candidate whom we believe is closest to this position. We do this because politicians and political parties have become so removed from the realities of daily life they have become almost irrelevant to us. It is a system we feel powerless to change most of the time. But that ignores the protest vote. Many people this time round didn’t vote so much for a party as against them. The obvious target of this tactic would be Mr Turnbull. In this election he represented everything that was bad in this whole political mess. Firstly he is untrustworthy, and that is a fatal characteristic in any politician, but perhaps more importantly he has no vision for this country. He singularly fails to understand its people and what is important to them. He spruiks innovation without explaining what that means. He talks about a new economy and in doing so shows his breathtaking ignorance of the subject. His awkward demeanour, forced smile and dreary speeches during the campaign only served to highlight his disconnect from the electorate. After promising so much he ultimately managed to deliver nothing. He now has no effective mandate to govern and the people who so gleefully promoted him on the promise of “things can only get better with Malcolm” will have had some awful nightmares last night. His future in politics is deservedly bleak and it does not bode well for our collective future at least in the short term. I for one won’t miss his ineffective input and complete inability to speak with conviction and belief. This election result is the first shot across the bows of our own political elite. It should be acknowledged that the Brexit and Trump phenomena have awakened a belief that the average voter can effect change and the upsurge in support for minor and independent parties bears testament to that sentiment. As I left my local polling place yesterday a man just walking in looked at the huddled volunteers handing out “how to vote cards” and muttered “F***ing bunch of blowflies”. Kinda says everything…….

    60

    • #
      Rod Stuart

      For the vocal but committed few (members of political parties) on all sides of politics their vote would have been based purely on party lines

      That is a very large part of the problem. If you are not part of the solution, YOU are part of the problem. Investigate direct democracy.

      20

      • #
        Nezysquared

        Not too sure why you see ME as part of the problem. I found the choices available just too stomach churning to choose from. I thought it best to make my own boxes up on the voting slips and my preference was actually Nigel Farage – I’m surprised he didn’t fall over the line…. And that’s YOUR problem…

        10

  • #
    Ross

    How did the ALA go ?

    30

  • #

    I can’t wait to hear what De Natale has to say when he finds out he’s lost one, maybe two Senators. Puts his joyous rant right into perspective, eh! Not all that sure if the flow of preferences in The Senate will get his numbers back to what they were.

    I also heard late last night that although they can hold a Reps election at ant time, they cannot hold another Senate election for two years at the soonest, unless it’s another DD.

    The first six elected Senators in each State get the full 6 years, and the rest have to go to the next election. At a half Senate election, the Greens will only ever get one in each State at best, so DD’s are the Greens best chance, and the Independents stole his last place chance at this election.

    The Senate count looks really interesting now (at this link)

    Pauline Hanson, who would have thought she’d come back?

    Also heard a veiled barb at Oakshott late last night. Waited until the last minute to nominate, didn’t really campaign and missed out on getting elected, the veiled barb was that it was a good payday for him, as he got his deposit back and a good price for every vote he got. You know, big name, big promise, big words, but not really hoping to get elected, just doing it for the money he makes out of it.

    Tony.

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    • #

      The greens had 10 Senators

      So, going on these results then:

      That’s one in NSW, in the bottom six so facing election next time around.
      Victoria one in the top six and maybe a second, in the bottom six.
      Queensland one in bottom six.
      Western Australia one in the top six (maybe) and maybe a second, in the bottom six.
      South Australia probably one, in the bottom six.
      Tasmania one in the top six and maybe a second in the bottom six.

      So, maybe 8, maybe 9 Senators, so a loss of one maybe two.

      However, note in all States, they have one facing an election at the next half Senate, and they only get enough percentage to get that one re-elected, so it will be two Senate elections before they get their numbers back to what they are now, if they do at that second election.

      Probably more Independents than Greens in the Senate now.

      Tony.

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      • #

        I didn’t shed a tear but it was to be expected given the double dissolution and an mostly unchanged vote for the greens. It naturally yields fewer senators than 2x half senate elections.

        What will happen after next election (assuming this parliament goes full term which is hard to determine at the mo) is where the effect will be fully felt. Depending on the model used to split the senators for re-election, it is likely that the greens will have more than before the double D.

        00

    • #
      Analitik

      Well I managed to sit through the midday ABC news segment with The Greens and Di Natale is in a serious case of denial. He talked up their performance in polling well in Melbourne’s inner while largely ignoring the points I made earlier about their lackluster gains, in light of the disaffection with the major parties, and the likely senate losses.

      Di Natale went on to imply that The Greens had received a mandate by Australia to continue in transitioning away from fossil fuels (no more new coal stations!) to renewables, increase in Medicare coverage and general public spending and to open and unquestioned acceptance of boatloads of refugees. Finally his proclamation that seats like Higgins, Melbourne Ports and even Wentworth were “turning green” and that it was “only a matter of time” before they fell capped off the delusion.

      100

    • #
      Analitik

      moderation test – denial, delusion, Di Natale

      70

  • #
    observa

    And the winner is Malcolm in the Muddle!

    40

  • #

    Doubts about democracy

    UK Guardian:

    “Election backfires with far-right and fringe groups likely to seize Senate seats”.

    First the UK referendum backfired, now the Australian election.

    43

    • #

      Doubts about democracy from those who don’t understand it.

      These “failures of democracy” are simply results of elections that are either undesired or unexpected. The commentator has failed to appreciate that their own values are not shared widely enough; so it’s the observer/commentator that has failed, not democracy.

      The only flaw with democracy is that people will eventually figure out that they can vote themselves money. i.e. pretty much the basis for the growth of socialism in free, democratic societies. It’s perfectly reasonable; why work when you can live and enjoy life simply by taking money that’s been collected by force from those who’ve earnt the money? We’re seeing less of that as people are trending away; towards reaping the harvest of their own efforts. If the people change their votes fast enough, they can save their democracy from collapse into a sham under totalitarianism; the requisite for “practical” socialism.

      151

      • #
        Rod Stuart

        Bernd
        I’m sure you would find this article interesting.
        To differentiate “democracy” and “republic” is something few do.

        10

    • #
      AndyG55

      From a centre conservative, sceptic viewpoint, this is a pretty good result

      1. Neither leftist Turnbull or union Shorten is likely to be able to govern in their own right.

      2. Greens will likely be reduced in the Senate. :-) (a really big plus)

      3. Centre and centre-right parties will likely control the Senate

      Only thing that still needs to happen is for Turnbull to get kicked out or to resign, and the outcome would be about as good as we could have hoped for.

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  • #

    With 300 to 500 voters running the gauntlet past me and the other political teams (ALP made no effort to show up) in my ~4-hour stint handing out how-to-vote cards, there was about 1% who felt free enough to speak out about the lack of choice.

    With such a close result and either “side” unable to establish a majority in its own right; it looks like the most powerful seats in the House of Representatives are not at the table but on the cross-benches.

    I’d like to be a fly on the wall in the GG’s office as each Prince shows up to plead their case for being able to form a government without a majority of seats. Will Bill have to go without a pie?

    80

    • #
      Rod Stuart

      Whenever someone has tried to fob one of these pamphlets off on me, I generally just say “If I didn’t know what I am doing, I wouldn’t have bothered to come”.
      However, yesterday I was out there handing out HTV Voteflux pamphlets.
      Surprisingly, there were some that were aware of the concept and prepared to cast a ballot that way.
      For the most part a fruitless exercise. Compulsory voting is a mistake when several have given their gift of democracy so little thought.
      Bernd, you might find this essay of interest.

      40

      • #
        AndyG55

        Was 8am-ish when I voted. Quite chilly, my hands stayed firmly in my jacket pockets,

        a quick shake of the head and a grumpy scowl.. they left me alone. :-)

        70

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Bernd:
      I handed out Liberal vote cards for about 5 minutes after I voted (and not for the Liberal) but that was because I knew the Liberal doing it and it let her go and get a coffee and jam scones. I can’t say I altered the course of history but my impression was that the Libs weren’t well organised (no cover for lunch breaks et.) and had drafted people to cover other suburbs, nor well briefed unlike the Labor card man I chatted with. Anyway Mayo saw the Briggs-it.

      50

  • #
    ROM

    Well after yesterdays vote, not much has changed in politics over the last few thousand years except everyone can now express their mostly negative opinions on the various politicals or would be politicals who will be sitting in what we often [ mistakenly presume ! ] is the Nation’s supreme governing body, the Parliament for the next few years.

    And so for the good points of our election process and the values of our elected and future political representatives we hope!

    1 / Nowhere to my knowledge and unlike most other nations on this planet during national elections, were there any police let alone heavily armed riot police and armed gendarmerie and the army patrolling the precincts of the polling booths alert for serious politically based trouble .

    2 / Again unlike so many other nations that lack a long and deep democratic heritage, the counting of votes will be almost free of any corruption or evidence of corruption in the vote counting process.
    If there is even a taint of corruption then the legal process steps in to both find and prosecute the sources of any percieved corruption and to hold a recount if it is proven that corruption or a accidental stuff up was made in the vote count.

    3 / On an almost innumerable number of sites on the World Wide Web a whole gamut of commenters and posters will be expressing their uncensored, wide, vehemently opinionated and often contradictory opinions and making highly derogatory comments about the origins, the personalities, the moral and ethical values and genetic backgrounds of every one of the both the elected politicians plus equally disparaging comments about those “would be” or “has been” politicians who missed out on being elected.

    4 / And again unlike so many other nations on this planet;

    a / We have the modern nation wide electronic communications technology that allows such individual citizen based political commentary and opinion to be very widely broadcast.
    b / We can make such politically commentary without being censored except for language content.
    c / We can make such political commentary in the full knowledge that there won’t be a knock on the front door at 4 am in the morning with an order backed by guns to pack nothing more than a tooth brush and a fresh change of undies and to do it fast.
    d / We can make that political commentary knowing that unless such commentary is scatological in the extreme the only backlash will be a verbal battering from those who see the political situation differently and just as vehemently disagree with our own political viewpoint.
    c / We can openly, vigorously and vehemently disagree with others who see the political situation and the various political players in an opposite or different way to what we do and there will be no serious consequences arising from those openly expressed differences in viewpoint.

    5 / Nowhere amongst any Australian politicals that I have seen or read of is there any suggestion from those same politicals that they would try and undermine that free election process.
    It has served both them and the Australian citizens well for over a century past.

    6 / And in three years time we get to do it all over again on a national basis and can have another go at those would be political rulers of our nation.

    We are indeed” The Lucky Country.” where as a commenter has pointed out, the shallow definition of “hardship” for the younger Australian generation, is to not have a smart phone.

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    Phil R

    OK, please,

    With respect, as a ‘Mericun, I don’t even understand our politics and elections, much less yours, but what the h*ll is the “Australian Sex Party”?

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Phil R:

      A rather minor party that gets around 2% of the vote, usually from people fed up with the major parties and making a statement to that effect.

      The Sex Party’s policy platform is opposed to mandatory internet censorship, and is in favour of legalised abortion, gay rights, voluntary euthanasia, the legalisation of cannabis for recreational use along with the decriminalisation of all other drugs for recreational use. They often campaign with the Cannabis party which wants (complete) decriminisation.
      The Sex Party supports vaccination to protect public health and reduce the spread of preventable diseases. In 2016 the Sex Party stated: “Choosing not to vaccinate your children amounts to medical neglect; this is a serious ethical issue”

      [I should snip this but given the conversation about the "sex party" I'll approve it. Please don't drag it out any further.] AZ

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      scaper...

      They’ve been around for years but their membership has remained static. No wonder…they seem to ‘implement’ their policy.

      I believe when they actually get a ‘member’ in they will adopt their ‘missionary’ position. Quite unimaginative, actually.

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    • #
      Yonniestone

      Their campaign slogan was “Helping Australians come together”, you figure it out…..

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  • #
    Dennis

    It’s a group of Kiwi candidates who in total number six.

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  • #
    Adam Smith

    Re: Election Result

    HAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHA

    HAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH

    AHHAHAHHAHAHAH

    HAHAHHA

    [If it's that funny you need to pay Jo for the comedy act. She doesn't do it for nothing. Moderation, however is a free service so enjoy it.] AZ

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  • #

    Great to see the rise of the patriotic right in Australia.

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    scaper...

    A copy and paste from The Australian.

    South Australian Liberal Senator Cory Bernardi has labelled the election result a “disaster” and warns the Liberal party has alienated its base and risks triggering what he calls a new conservative revolution, Joe Kelly writes.

    In comments clearly directed at Malcolm Turnbull, Senator Bernardi told The Australian the disappointing result for the government was brought on by “hubris” and an “arrogant contempt” for the founding principles of the Liberal Party.

    He argued for those in charge of the campaign to be held to account for the poor result and warned that conservative voters would abandon the party unless it stayed true to conservative values.

    “However you look at it, it’s a disaster for the Liberal Party. The brand has been damaged substantially by hubris; by an arrogant contempt for our traditional base and the abandonment of any founding principle,” he said.

    “The conservative revolution needs to either start within the Liberal Party or it will start outside of it and I think we’ve just seen a taste of that on the weekend.”

    “It’s always been my preference to ensure the Liberal Party remains true to its conservative ethos but I have repeatedly warned that, if we abandon our reason for being, something else will fill the gaps.”

    Going to ring Cory after the dust settles. I don’t see a way back to the Liberals for the conservatives.

    It’s over in my opinion.

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      scaper...

      Here’s some background. The Australian, March.

      Rightwing Liberal senator Cory Bernardi has laid the groundwork to launch a new political force, the Australian Conservatives, to “give a voice back to Australia’s forgotten people”.

      In a move that risks further splintering the Turnbull government, a company controlled by the South Australian senator’s wife has applied to trademark the name and logos of the new group, with the stated aim of providing the “services of a political party”.

      Senator Bernardi, who in ­September warned of a possible schism of the Liberal Party if Malcolm Turnbull did not uphold the party’s “distinctly conservative” character, yesterday described the Australian Conservatives as a program of his existing Conservative Leadership Foundation.

      He would not provide further details about what the program ­involved or give an assurance he would not leave the Liberals to lead a breakaway party.

      In a rousing email to supporters on Monday, Senator Bernardi ­referred repeatedly to the “silent majority of Australian Conservatives” who were challenging “the leftist agenda of big government and decaying society”.

      “Unless the mainstream parties connect with the ‘forgotten people’ they will choose a different path. It’s a global phenomenon and would be foolish to think it won’t emerge in Australia,” he wrote, citing the rise of Donald Trump.

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        Graeme No.3

        Not yet if they dump Malcolm and Greg Hunt. Both are poison to the conservative wing.
        Eventually, and possibly fairly soon, the Liberals will split. Those on the ‘right’ with convictions will either leave to a new party or boot out the wishy-washies. Whether that is a winning strategy is doubtful in the short term but if Labor or the wishy-washies get their way and spend Australia close to disaster then they will be the ultimate winners.
        In the short term Australia is headed for Greek status. All those inner-city types who depend on the Government payroll and the non existent Government superannuation scheme will get a very rude shock. It is not something I would wish on them despite their hubris, but ex-Professors scrounging through rubbish bins? That is where we are headed as they learn in a very hard way that there is NOT an ever lasting big bag of money.

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      • #
        bobl

        Yes, it is what we wanted, Australia has voted none of the above – and the senate reflects the undoubted defection of the conservatives giving whoever governs a conservative senate balance to deal with, the first time I remember ever. As a result the only stable government will be a conservative one. Unfortunately the makeup of this parliament will be incapable of repealing Hunts ETS by stealth. The HOR will be incapable of originating that bill.

        For the first time a Labor government may face a real hostile senate. Popcorn futures explode – more at 11.

        Either there will be a centrist or conservative government or there will be another election, either way I think MAL is toast. One wonders if one of the conditions of independents for supporting the coalition/labor will be the stepping down of Turnbull/Shoten?

        I think this outcome is good, the makeup of the senate is likely to favour fiscal responsibility and traditional values and no further “action on climate change”. We can only hope.

        I hear it said that the DELCON vote didn’t matter, but clearly, like it or not, the delcons spoke loud and clear at this election, they said “do not take us for granted” and voted “None of the above” and gave us a conservative senate. The liberals should ignore the message at their peril. This disaster is the making of the liberals themselves and the 54 in particular.

        Scaper? Do you have any sense of the impact the outcome will have on the socialist/conservative balance in the parliamentary party?

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    Considerate Thinker

    As a former rusted on liberal conservative voter (I did my bit) but stupid did what stupid does!

    Labor Conservative Mr and Mrs average family types, don’t realise it but they have also been disenfranchised, especially if you listened to what Penny Wong had to say about conservatives during the Labor campaign. Malcolm won’t do the right thing and stand down as a result of the reaction to his shoddy performance, he will be determined to continue to limp his limp carcase and agenda forward in the hope that he might hold on and the party will not do what he did and work to tip him out. So the obvious answer is the formation of a true conservative party with common sense values that can be electorally sold to both the Liberal conservatives and the Labor conservatives who collectively outnumber the so called progressives that are nothing more than a leftist front framed to be seen as intellectual.

    We need thinking people that can wrest the education system from those regressives calling themselves progressive. We need to take a leaf from their little red song book and root out the cult scientists that have made such a welter of the science funding.

    Time to consider a leader that can draw together the centrist conservatives.

    The easiest thing will be funding as that is where much of the smaller contributions were raised (did you hear the Liberal strategist Michael Kroger wailing that we had stopped funding them!! though he still denies the obvious, it must have been superannuation or any other excuse other than we-do-not-trust-Malcolm)!! Corporate funding will follow if your policies and conservative determination is out there for all to see, I think the next three years will be fertile ground to grow a strong and enduring conservative party structure. Any thoughts on this.

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    • #
      Angry

      TURNCOAT turnbull’s bizarre speech……….

      The speech that proves Turnbull cannot cope

      http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_speech_that_proves_turnbull_cannot_cope/

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      • #
        handjive

        It’s like deja vu all over again!

        The Downfall of Malcolm Turnbull

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        • #
          bobl

          Yes this is the second time the Liberal base went nuts over the prince of wentworth, the night of the vote on the ETS where TA defeated Chairman MAL by a single vote on the “day the electorate went nuts”, now the liberal base has sent the Liberal Party the EXACT same message, we do not want Malcolm Turnbull as leader.

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      • #
        TdeF

        Actually I cannot bear to watch Malcolm. As bad as Gillard. It’s all about them.

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        • #
          TdeF

          We are us.

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          • #
            Gordon Cheyne

            “We are us.”
            The waffling we have endured almost makes this look sensible.

            What a campaign did Malcolm wage:
            Nothing at all about the reason for the Double Diss, the Building Unions
            Nothing about the threat to the truckies being threatened by the unions over “safety”
            Nothing about border control, and who comes into the country
            Nothing about the virulent Islam threat
            The only sensible tactic Turnbull seems to have had, was to keep quiet about the ETS he has just introduced.

            Pathetic! Was there no planning in his campaign?

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            • #
              gigdiary

              Was there no planning in his campaign?

              Perhaps that was his plan. Don’t scare the horses, especially the horses on the left. If that was the case, his plan backfired.

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  • #
    DonS

    Seems like the “science” of opinion polls has about as much validity as the “science” of carbon dioxide induced catastrophic global warming. Did anyone see a poll in the past 8 weeks that put the primary vote of the major parties as low as they turned out in real life?

    Looks to me like the companies that do these opinion polls tailor their product to meet the client’s expectations, be it the media, governments or whoever, and do not have methodologies that find the real state of affairs on any topic. Remember how the last British election was supposed to be a Labour landslide (as indicated by the polls).

    The truth is that any party that unseats an incumbent PM mid-term is going to feel the wrath of the voters at the next available opportunity. We do not directly elect our PM but we expect to be given the chance to decide on the performance of the government they lead. We did not vote for Rudd to be done over by Gillard and we did not vote for Turnbull to do the same to Abbott. One way or the other it was supposed to be up to the electorate to decide not 54 party stooges behind closed doors in Canberra.

    Already I’ve heard some “experts” say the voters do not know what they’ve done, they are fools who have been tricked somehow into voting contrary to expectations, that the democratic system is faulty. Same things we heard after the Brexit vote, not surprisingly I suppose when expert opinion is found to be wrong they need to blame someone for their faulty predictions.

    No matter what reasons they come up with for the election result, the reality is that in a democratic system if you dismiss the voters and betray their trust then if your Gillard or Turnbull or whoever you will be brought to account at the ballot box. When chancers and usurpers are brought to book it looks like democracy is working just fine to me.

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  • #
    Andrew McRae

    Jo asks:

    Does it take an organized conservative type person to vote ahead of time?

    No!
    The demographic that most hates fighting for car parks, being in crowds, and standing in a queue for 30 minutes is the over 55s crowd, who are mostly retirees with escalating health concerns. In other words, the people who need Leftism the most are also the most likely to postal vote. Watch the Labor seats notch upwards as those postal votes trickle in.

    I’ve seen few Turnbullites get much of a swing against them so far, let alone lose, so any significant DefCon effect would have to be hiding in the 25% of votes that are uncounted 3rd preferences and postal.
    If Shorten is PM by Friday it will mainly be because Labor and the AMA President started the mediscare in September and the clarifications from Turnbull were not announced until after most postal votes had been sent.

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  • #
    Robber

    Interesting how all the “basket case” States and Territories vote for Labor – Tasmania 4/0 plus 1 leftie independent, SA 6/2 plus 1 independent, ACT 2/0, NT 2/0.
    Send more handouts. Or get a real job!

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    PeterS

    Turnbull is a great disappointment. When he back-stabbed Abbott he promised to deliver great polices and achievements. Time has proven he is a fake, just like Rudd. If he does form government he has one final chance to prove himself. If he fails as I believe he will, it will be the end of the Liberal Party for a long time to come with Labor in control after a landslide victory at the next election, with at least one other term after that. To be honest it would be better for all of us if the Libs lost now, got rid of Turnbull, let Labor make a fool of themselves and start again.

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    • #
      Another Ian

      Peter S

      I’ve posted this before

      When the coup was done I had one of those mental rust flakes saying “you should remember something about this”

      It was the chapter in Kalil Gebran’s “Thoughts and Meditations” called

      The Silver Plated Turd

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    • #
      TdeF

      Bolt is right. He should resign. Perhaps he can start his own party? No one would join.

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  • #

    The luvvies and inner-urban establishment vaguely promised conservatives that if they installed Malcolm as leader they’d stop picking on them; that Malcolm and Lee would spend long, lingering, flirtatious ABC interviews together just getting warm down the leg.

    Talk about a sucker punch.

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    Another Ian

    Turnbull reminds me of the pilot in Len Dighton’s “Bomber” trying to do a copybook spin recovery in a Lancaster over Berlin with half a wing shot off.

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  • #
    Egor TheOne

    Time to give the TurdFull the Bum’s Rush Out!

    He has squandered the Coalitions majority, is a flogger of ratbag lefty ideals, Big Bank advocate, and worst of all, CAGW advocate.

    Any that advocate for such crap are either stupid or crooked.

    he may even yet lose not just a majority, but government and allow that Carbon Bill and fellow ratbags back at the helm for more wreck and ruin.

    The only stop or restriction to any of these nuts is the Hanson and possibly the Xenothon vote, of which i am not to hopeful of the xenothon vote.

    I would have accepted the TurnCoat if he maintained a reasonable or good majority.

    From now on i will not vote for any that are floggers of Climate Change (even mild b’lvers are unacceptable) and will encourage all who i know to do the same.

    The coalition except for only a few exceptions are lost to us!

    For any to regain my support they must above all else denounce this new religious disease of CAGW.

    Any that don’t are either stupid or crooked…operating for their own interests at the voters/public’s expense.

    Any such offenders should be sacked for incompetence and/or jailed for scamming the electorate from a position of elected authority.

    To sign away funds and sovereignty to a foreign self proclaimed authoritarian body/business interest is an act of Treason.

    To deliberately and purposefully bring financial hardship and limit freedom to those that they are tasked to protect and act only in the best interests of, is of the lowest act.

    I did not vote for Hanson or Rise Up Aust. or a few others that are similar ‘non B’lvers’,and now regret not doing so.

    I will not make the same mistake twice and will encourage all in future to do likewise.

    That is: if they are ‘True B’lvers’,then they don’t even get considered, even if they have other policies that are good!

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Egor:
      get a brain. Hanson is well known to be sceptical of AGW.

      Yes, Turnbull has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. He may still be PM because not even Bill Shorten is that anxious to take the blame for the coming chaos. Yes, we will get gullible fools (e.g. C. Hunt) trying to advance the AGW cause with the approval of Nick X and Bill Shorten, not to say the Greens. The next 2-3 years are headed for cooling and will destroy their credibility and chances of re-election. The tide is turning and would-be Canutes will be washed away.

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      • #
        PeterS

        It did cross my mind some time ago that Turnbull wanted to lose. Perhaps he knows something about what’s going to happen (eg, GFC Mark 2) that will change things dramatically so he didn’t want to be in government to take the blame. It would explain his pathetic performance ever since he back-stabbed Abbott. However, I seriously doubt he is that clever or astute. He’s more likley just plain hopeless, much like Rudd.

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      • #
        Egor TheOne

        Graeme no 3,

        “Egor:
        get a brain. Hanson is well known to be sceptical of AGW.”

        I never said otherwise.

        I think you need to re read what I posted.

        Also I would not expect retribution from a slight cooling even if that happens, as the forces of ‘Ratbagism’ will simply propagate that scenario into anything that suits there agenda.

        This they have already done successfully to date.

        The CAGW monstrosity has achieved multi-trillion dollar global status with zero proof and all the ‘corruptees’ want a part of or more of the action.

        Honesty is a dying art, especially in politics….great big new taxes and further enslavements are on their way, because our elected protectors deceive us.

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    Graeme No.3

    Why is comment 32.1 hanging in moderation after 5 hours?

    What is in there, apart for a reference, to a mob of non-events?

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  • #

    I actually hope Turdball does get to form Government, seeing him suffer in an even more hostile Parliament and Senate than before his mindless destruction of the LNP will be worth the price of admission.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Yes that would be nice. I also would be glad to see Turnbull lose the election because his party should then dump him – that would be worth celebrating. I can’t stand him – as bad if not worse than Rudd. I can stand Labor being in power for one term. It should then be easy for the LNP to wing the next election, possibly with a landslide if they pick the right leader.

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    MichiCanuck

    From the other side of the Anglosphere, some amusing analysis from the ever perceptive Canuck Mark Steyn:

    http://www.steynonline.com/7549/the-blunder-down-under

    I particularly like the analogy of Bobby Ewing’s “death” in Dallas. Maybe Tony needs to pop into the shower ASAP.

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    • #
      Steve of Cornubia

      His best line, and one I shall remember always (until of course, the very moment when it I would look incredibly clever by using it), is “…it’s a lot easier for the base to get itself a new elite than for the elite to find itself a new base.”

      Genius.

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    Egor TheOne

    Its the most exciting time to be an agile loser!

    Or, its the most exciting time to be outwitted by someone that yells out ‘Austraya’ from the back of a ute!

    It appears that the TurdFull’s appeasement with the ABC didn’t work out.

    As communications minister, he could have pegged back 800,000 dollar per year Marxist Scott’s(now in charge of NSW climate change Indoctrination)ABC empire of True B’lver taxpayer funded ratbags.

    But no, when you have 7.30, the Dumb, Q and BS, BSline and so on running rampant against the coalition, what do you expect?

    Even Saturday, during the newspaper blackout, the ABC and SBS were running rampant with their coalition bashing….their idea of political neutrality.

    When will Turdfull ever wake up that the left will never vote for him unless he migrates to the ALP or where he would be the most comfortable, the Greens?

    Do what’s right for the coalition and the country Malcom…..Do a Cameron(another pretend conservative) and resign!

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    Dennis

    I can tell that Malcolm is very angry with us now.

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  • #
    Aaron M

    No government……haha!

    No stupid climate taxes to be imposed upon us! No taking of any more freedoms! I bask in the glory of an election non-event. Ha!

    00

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    Steve of Cornubia

    So far, so good. My local Lib, one of Turnbull’s stabby mates, looks like losing his seat, as does another conspirator not too far away. If Turnbull is forced into doing deals to stay PM, we avoid another Labor disaster but Turnbull’s own demise will commence. The next few months won’t be pretty, especially to erstwhile Liberal supporters, but it has to be done if Australia is going to have any credible conservative party going into the next, inevitable, GFC.

    10