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Weekend Unthreaded

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Weekend Unthreaded, 7.6 out of 10 based on 16 ratings

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159 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #
    Analitik

    In another thread, I posted about how a new writer for RenewEconomy, David Leitch, was writing some pretty decent articles attempting to show how renewables fit in to the Australian Energy. Giles Parkinson will probably sack David soon because although his conclusions follow the renewables mantra, the articles actually show the underlying issues with renewables.

    I lifted a couple of quotes about operating costs from his article about Infigen, a wind generation company, but a complete reading showed there was much more. Bear in mind that this article is trying to promote the renewables industry by showing how difficulties can be overcome so it cannot be dismissed as a beatup by the anti-renewables lobby, “big oil”, “big coal” or whoever else the renwables industry and lobbyists normally accuse for negative perspectives.

    Firstly (to recap), the article states

    Since the wind was free the natural expectation was that the variable operating expenditure [opex] of a wind farm would be very low. In fact it turns out that gearboxes break down and that these big powerful pieces of equipment cost a lot to run. It works out to be about $20/MWh, that’s more than a brown or black coal generator. That’s right, the opex for a wind farm is probably higher than for a coal generator

    plus

    PV solar farms also cost around $20/MWh. It’s a mystery to me where that money goes.

    Finally, an admission that even if the capital costs are ignored, wind and solar energy are far from “free”.

    The article then qoes on to detail some of the financial difficulties that Infigen have experienced and how they managed to reduce debt by fire selling their portfolio of US “assets” (with a note on how this reduced the company’s complexity – it is, after all, a remanent of the Babcock & Brown group).

    But the kicker is the analysis into the crucial role played by RECs in Infigen’s income for uncontracted wind generation.

    Infigen states that ebitda increases around $0.8 million for every $1 increase in the combined pool and REC price

    EBITDA is Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization – a measure of profitablility and the pool prices are the actual market rates that a normal dispatchable generator would receive. Now look at the breakup

    Since Dec 31 2015 REC prices have been consistently around $75-$80 but the pool price received by wind in the June quarter to date in South Australia is just $30

    The RECs form more than 70% of the income!

    Finally, costs may well increase in the near future

    Most of the Australian wind farms are still on manufacturer warranty agreements and there will be a change in costs and risks once these expire (mostly over the next 12-18 months)

    Thanks to David Leitch and RenewEconomy for this insight into Infigen and thus the operational side of the renewables industry.
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/infigen-energy-where-to-from-here-79184

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      That ties in with a British report a few years ago that maintenance costs for wind turbines amounted to 10% of earnings. That amounts to

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      • #
        Analitik

        to ???

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        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Don’t know what happened. To $A16 to 24 depending on estimated revenue (and exchange rate then current).

          I have noticed that the estimated cost of wind in the UK keeps rising. Originally the figure was £85 but now £140 per MWh. That must have been partly caused by more off-shore installations which are more than double the cost, but it may include payments for NOT delivering. The whole energy scheme in the UK is ridiculous.

          10

          • #
            Analitik

            So the UK wind farm maintenance costs are in line with ours. That is a decent confirmation – I would have taken the A$20 / MWh figure from the Infigen report as a good minimum value since the source is RenewEconomy.

            As for the UK paying for curtailed output, I don’t know if that is more ridiculous than producing more power than current demand so the price goes negative. Both are economically ruinous policies but excess power generation adds the danger of overvoltage which can damage infrastructure and equipment. Then again, power spikes, surges and sags can happen anytime with weather dependent generation that isn’t buffered.

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            • #
              Graeme No.3

              Analytik:

              There was a further comment that (roughly) another 10% went to overheads such as land rental, security, ‘donations’ to local authorities (sweeteners to get building permission) etc. So you could double that figure. It certainly means that wind energy is vastly more costly (and unreliable) than coal or gas.

              In Germany the CF for onshore turbines is 16-17% (v’s UK @ 23-27%) so their maintenance comes in at 20% of revenue. Off-shore maintenance cost are huge. The DECC estimates their cost to make around £170 per MWh!!!

              In Germany they are also paying wind farms to shut down whenever they look like overloading the grids. As they get DOUBLE the subsidy amount** plus avoidance of wear and tear the owners are quite happy to do so, especially when a glut of wind could send the wholesale to zero or even negative.

              ** I assume you know that German producers get a guaranteed amount per MWh generated plus whatever they sell it for, hence their willingness to dump at any price, at least until they were offered the new alternative. The extra payout just gets lumped onto household bills.

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              • #
                Analitik

                Thanks Graeme. The issue I am highlighting for the moment revolves around operating costs since there is solid grounding now to dispute the “renewables are free” claim that is continually spouted. The additional factors you mention besides maintenance would probably form a large part of the “mystery” opex of PV farms – god help them when solar thermal plants get examined for opex.

                For offshore wind, the helicopter flights needed for normal maintenance must add a huge amount to opex. That is without mentioning the inherent hazard of helicopter flights in areas prone to high wind as evidenced by the recent crash with loss of all life on the Super Puma helicopter that was flying to an oil rig. With the low density of wind generation, the number (and cumulative flight time) of helicopter flights for offshore turbine maintenance must be a substantial figure. Then there are the costs of the specialized installation ships needed for major maintenance operations…. Mein Gott! It is no wonder offshore wind opex is staggering.

                As I understand it, the German wind farms are paid like those of our wind farms under a PPA so there is no incentive to curtail. But I have also read that they can be asked by the grid operators to curtail for stabilization support in which case they still get paid for the power that they would have generated as in the UK model. The easy connection to the neighboring grid allows the Germans to dump cheap/negative value power when they cannot ramp down their coal production but once the Poles, Czechs and others have their border phase shifting transformers operational, curtailment will occur far more frequently. As always, the households bear the brunt of the costs but there are other fees added which penalise all electricity consumers

                https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/what-german-households-pay-power

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  • #
    James Murphy

    I am surprised that ‘their’ ABC hasn’t made much more out of the apparent disappearance of 5 islands in the Solomon group. Think of the Children!

    The ABC version vs the France24 version, though the ABC version is much more emotive and sanctimonious.

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    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      Over the last 20 years the Solomon Islands region has experienced a lot of very big earthquakes.

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      • #
        Analitik

        in some cases entire communities have left coastal villages that were established in the early 1900s by missionaries, and retraced their ancestral movements to resettle old inland village sites used by their forefathers

        Do you think the forefathers may have known something about the island’s the the missionaries (and the ABC) didn’t?
        There’s quite a few mentions of erosion and natural variability in the ABC article. I think the civil enginners at The University of Queensland who wrote some of it are seeing the game is just about over and are doing a bit of ar$e covering by hedging on the causes

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  • #
    Reed Coray

    Former VP of the USA, Al Gore, recently released a “Mother’s Day” letter requesting $2 donations to Climate Reality (see https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/05/al-gore-tries-to-make-mothers-day-about-climate-hope/). Then it hit me: “Gaia” is a misspelling of “Giai”, which stands for “Gore Is An Idiot.”

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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Now that Donald Trump stands all alone as the presumptive Republican nominee, are there any odds makers willing to give me odds on his losing to Hillary?

    Just thought I’d ask.

    And sorry to ruin your day. :-)

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    • #
      Reed Coray

      Roy, that you did, that you did–ruin my day, I mean. Talk about the nadir of all presidential election choices: Hillary Clinton (whose motto is the opposite of George Washington’s: “I Cannot Tell A Lie”) versus Donald (You’re Fired) Trump. I don’t drink much alcohol–maybe a glass of wine a month–but it’s time for a drink.

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    • #
      Rod Stuart

      Will Billary still be on the ballot whe the FBI are finished talking to Guccifer? Perhaps that should be when Guccifer is finished talking to the FBI.

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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Rod,

        Unfortunately even were she under indictment or arrest, for that matter even already sentenced and in prison, nothing requires her name to be removed from the ballot and nothing prevents her from being elected. As far as I know there is no provision for such a situation. And we’d be in an even worse situation come inauguration day (January 20) if she was elected and in jail because Obama’s term ends that day and clearly he must step down, leaving us with the constitutional requirement to swear in Hillary as president. I don’t know what would happen and the Constitution didn’t anticipate any of this. The Supreme Court cannot simply step in and make a ruling. They can only act if someone brings a case to them. They cannot say, I see a case everyone is ignoring and then take it up.

        It’s completely uncharted territory. I remember something about one governor being elected while in jail back in the past a few decades. It’s nuts.

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        • #

          In 2004, Leonard Peltier ran for president as the Peace and Freedom party candidate. He was serving two life sentences for the murder of two FBI agents in 1975.

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    • #
      Yonniestone

      Roy as many here are outsiders to the USA how is the general feeling towards Trump?

      We get the impression that even after battling elements in his own party and a hostile press there is a genuine groundswell of optimism for him with Americans, the idea of a POTUSA that genuinely loves his country enough to reinstate its founding principles above their self worth must be an almost revolutionary idea to many citizens.

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      • #
        Reed Coray

        Yonniestone, I can’t speak for Roy, but I’ll tell you how one fiscal conservative (to the right of Rush Limbaugh) feels. Donald Trump is an egotistical opportunist who will do most anything to improve his lot in life–e.g., as I understand it, he has contributed four times to Hillary Clinton political campaigns. However, for the last twenty years or so the Republican party has been Democrat lite. The Republicans are always talking about how they will thwart the Democrats in general and his Lordship Obama in particular. Then when they have the means to walk-the-walk, they suddenly get wet feet and essentially go along with his Lordship’s plans. Over the past five years I’ve been on the receiving end of at least 10 phone calls asking me to donate money to the Republican Party. My response has been consistently the same: “No money until you actually fight for conservative ideas and policies. You’re nothing but a bunch of Democrats in sheep’s clothing. You won’t get a dime out of me until you get some backbone.” Along comes Donald Trump who fights; and even with tremendous pressure from the US news media (a bunch of leftist sycophants) won’t apologize when he makes non politically correct statement. Like General Grant in the US civil war, I believe Donald Trump will fight. It is so refreshing to have someone lambast Hillary Clinton and not apologize afterwards that he strikes a resonating chord in many conservatives.

        I’ll summarize my feelings this way. Donald Trump is first, foremost and always for Donald Trump; and in my opinion would be an abominable President. However, as bad Trump would be, it’s better than the evil Queen in waiting. And if nothing else, Donald Trump and his trouncing of the Republican establishment’s favorites has done infinitely more to convince the Republican party to quit acting like namby-pambys and start acting like men than all my heated phone conversations with Republican money seekers.

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        • #
          Yonniestone

          Thank you Reed, your response is appreciated.

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        • #
          bobl

          Reed,
          Interesting points, however the question probably needs to be asked. If it is as you say, and Trump is indeed a self seeking narcissist, what outcome does that deliver for the USA as a whole?

          It seems from where I sit that if Trump does what is good for Trump, then the outcomes are likely to be positive for businesses in the USA. The EPA is likely to be shackled, USA costs structures are likely to end up more world competitive, and the USA is likely to be set up to be more competitive with Mexico and China. None of these outcomes seems to be very negative for the USA?

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          • #
            Reed Coray

            Bobl, If Trump is elected President, what you wrote may very well come to pass and would be good for the US. Only time will tell. However, I don’t trust Trump. In my opinion, once elected Trump’s line of thought could switch along the lines of “What actions will most likely produce a legacy of my greatness?” He might decide that his legacy would be best served by working with the Democrats rather than against them. I have nothing to back up my feelings other than my gut which tells me Trump is more an opportunist than a true conservative. As long as he believes acting like a conservative is best for Trump, I think he would be an effective President in that he knows how to get things done. But anyone who donates money to Hillary Clinton (an action that is obviously meant to benefit the donor not conservatism) bears watching. As wary as I am of Trump, I’m scared u-no-what-less of Hillary. If the choice is between Trump and Hillary, I’m 100% for Trump. I’ve often described Hillary’s honesty this way: If Hillary was a ventriloquist’s dummy sitting on God’s knee, she couldn’t tell the truth.

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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Yonni, Reed, Bob,

        Today is a holiday here, Mother’s Day and I’ve not enough time to write up an answer for you at the moment. But I’ve seen this and will endeavour to give you an answer from my perspective later, probably tomorrow. But remember, I can only give it to you the way my analysis from observation makes it out to be. No one knows what will happen until it happens.

        Sorry to cop out this way. I don’t usually shy away from long winded comments but Mother’s day takes priority.

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        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Yonni, Reed, Bob, and anyone else interested,

          There are only two questions as I see it: 1) can Trump beat Hillary or not; 2) if elected, what kind of president will he be?

          Ironically, about 3 weeks ago I emailed Jo something I thought she could make a good topic out of if things ever get a little slower. That ended up with a short debate between us about Trump’s chances. She and I disagree. No surprise and no problem either but it tends to confirm what I’ve suspected, that those living outside the U.S. don’t always get the complete picture, the real flavor of the situation. I may be wrong in some case but overall, you in Australia have tended to misunderstand the American Electorate and what they will do. That’s not a criticism, just a general conclusion I’ve reached from reading this blog and seeing what really happens.

          1) So, can Trump beat Hillary in November? I don’t believe so. Hillary has a lot of baggage and can be attacked on many fronts. Were voters intellectually honest, that would have kept her out of the Senate and she’d be a nonentity in this election. But Democrat voters have a weird outlook on life. For starters — for many of them, HIllary is a woman and it’s time for a woman in the White House and that will be enough to get their vote. Then there’s the fact that about 40% of the country is on some form of Federal Government assistance, excluding Social Security which you have to work for and at least pay something into it to get anything out. They like their free money and Trump promises to start taking it away. So how will that 40% who are voters actually vote? Then there’s the problem that liberal thinkers are not exactly rational, critical thinkers. No matter how hard Trump hits Hillary or with what, they are not high information individuals and will tend not to believe Trump. And finally, there are polls going on for most of this campaign that say Trump can’t beat her. I don’t rely on just one poll but a history of same results starts to mean something.

          Then there are the Republicans. Trump has managed to alienate nearly everyone whose support he’ll need to govern if he is elected. And they are working against him. The second most important elected official in the country, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Paul Ryan has said he will not support Trump. And there are many others who will not vote for him, even if it means Hillary wins.

          However, now I’m seeing that recent polls suggest Trump can win or has a chance. I want to see how that goes for a while before I buy it. But I really don’t think he can do it. He’s a man you can’t be neutral about. You hate him or you love him. And those who love him are not enough to elect him.

          2) If he is elected, what kind of president will he be? And I don’t know. There are so many negatives I won’t take up space here to list them. But I don’t see a reason to trust him. He’s egotistical, self centered and inconsistent. He rambles when he speaks, going on and on when he should quit. His own party is divided with many of the people he’ll need on his side so alienated that they won’t vote for him. That’s deadly to his chance of winning the election and even worse for his chance to govern. He’s the worst unknown I’ve ever seen.

          The one encouraging thing is that he’s talking about putting some good people in as Cabinet heads. He’ll need them if he becomes president.

          And I hope I’m wrong.

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          • #
            Rod Stuart

            This “advice to voters in the November election” comes from Hawaii.
            It is indeed cause for concern.

            Before You Say You Won’t Vote

            ​….

            Some people have brought up the fact that they won’t vote if the eventual nominee is not the man they wanted. I just want to put something in perspective.

            Justice Scalia’s seat is vacant.

            Ginsberg is 82 years old

            Kennedy is 79

            Breyer is 77

            Thomas is 67.

            Nowadays, the data shows that the average age of a Supreme Court retirement or death occurs after 75.

            These are 5 vacancies that will likely come up over the next 4-8 years. The next President will have the power to potentially create a 7-2 Supreme Court skewed in their ideology.

            Think about that… 7-2.

            If the next President appoints 5 young justices, it will ****guarantee control of the Supreme Court for an entire generation. And 7-2 decisions will hold up much more over time than 5-4 decisions which are viewed as lacking in mandate.

            Hillary has made it clear she will use the Supreme Court to go after the 2nd Amendment. She has literally said that the Supreme Court was wrong in its Heller decision stating that the Court should overturn and remove the individual right to keep and bear arms. Period.

            Anyone and Everyone who is saying that they won’t vote for one candidate or the other if they are the GOP nominee, please realize this. Hear this! If Hillary Clinton wins and gets to make these appointments, you likely will never see another conservative victory at the Supreme Court level for the rest of your life. Ever.

            Whoever is the GOP nominee … go VOTE for the GOP Nominee!

            Remember Romney? Three million conservatives who had voted for McCain did not cast a vote for Romney (for whatever reason) …. and the result was four additional years of B.H.O.

            AND ONE FINAL THOUGHT , she’s already on the record as saying that her buddy, B.H.O. “would make a great Supreme Court Justice.”

            DID YOU JUST READ THAT LAST SENTENCE??????? NOW ARE YOU SCARED????

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            • #

              TOTAL BULL SHIT!
              SCOTUS DEPENDS entirely on the the integrity of SCOTUS to the US CONSTITUTION. All members and possible candidates to SCOTUS know this! SCOTUS allows both Congress and the Executive to bend the US CONSTITUTION somewhat, as long as such does not impact the integrity of SCOTUS to the US CONSTITUTION.
              Why are you being scared?

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            • #
              Roy Hogue

              It would seem that principle and anger will trump good judgment and so both the battle and the war will be lost.

              The pun is unintentional. I had typed it before realizing it was a play on Trump. But I think I’ll leave it there.

              Last evening’s news carried the headline, “TRUMP ATTACKS HILLARY.” So the battle is at last joined, with all parties in search and destroy mode. If there ever was a chance for calm, cool debate it’s been turned on its head by the media and will probably stay that way.

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      • #

        “Roy as many here are outsiders to the USA how is the general feeling towards Trump?”

        Here in middle USA, away from the coasts, springs eternal optimism!! We always believe the next president cannot be as bad as the current or previous!! :-) We have been disappointed for the past 60 years! That is but a string of bad luck, bound to change!!!

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        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Roy as many here are outsiders to the USA how is the general feeling towards Trump?

          Some love him, some hate him. It’s hard to be anywhere between those extremes. He’s been a very polarizing figure. Also see.

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          • #

            “cannot be as bad as the current or previous!! :-)
            In zentral USA is the opposite of Germany’s Fulda Gap where the Soviets had more TANKS than the West had bullets!
            Here the SEALS, MARINE FOLK, and ARMY RANGERS come to to learn the perzact grain load of powder, for this shaped mass of bullet, fired from your personal rifle that goes where aimed! However You must learn to do such reloading, yourself, if you are to survive!!
            All the best! -will-

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      • #
        clive

        Judge Jeanine Pirro knows a thing or two about Politics.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?…

        and another from her ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?… )

        Trump for President, Hillary for Prison – 2016

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        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Yes, Hillary is even worse than Trump. But that’s not saying much for Trump. He’s admitted to literally buying politicians of both parties to get his way. And I don’t think I want that kind of amoral operation going from inside the White House. Governing is not running a business which is there solely to make money for Donald Trump and his investors.

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    • #

      Here in the free USA even a former president impeached, convicted, and, imprisoned for high crimes (felony); can still run and again be elected president. Sorry to ruin your day. :-)

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  • #
    Mike

    Anthropocarbomorphic

    Anthropocarbomorphically

    Anthropocarbomorphism

    Anthropocarbomorphs

    Anthropocarbomorphing

    Anthropocarbomorphist

    Anthropocarbomorphology

    Anthropocarbomorphologist

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  • #
    James Murphy

    This is sure to get the Greens all in a tizzy – using offshore wind power to make it cheaper and easier to recover oil (in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea at least).

    “…Wind power could be used to pump the oil from remote offshore fields in the way windmills were once used to pump water from wells in arid West Texas. The offshore wind ideas were offered by DNV GL, which did a study showing that the wind offshore Norway is strong enough, and steady enough year round, to provide the electric power needed to inject 45,000 B/D of water into a remote offshore field in water 200 m deep…”

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      There-you-go.

      I always knew that wind power generation was a solution looking for a problem. Thank you for the reference James.

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    • #
      Analitik

      It’s funny – as I noted in my comment at the start of this thread, wind proponents always claim that after a turbine is setup, the generated power is free. Your offshore turbine/oil rig article states that the following for the case where this has been done

      The study concluded the capital expenditure required for wind would be 39% lower than conventional electric generator in the case studied, Sandberg said. On the other hand, the cost of maintaining a huge, 6-MW floating turbine is greater than the fuel cost of running a [gas] turbine. But the upfront saving on capital expenditure advantage far exceeded the operating expense difference

      So here we have confirmation that wind farms have significant operating expenses

      It is quite interesting that the lower capital cost is the advantage here. It is a special case since the wells produce gas so the fuel for the gas turbine would have been essentially free. So yay wind – help us get that oil we need.

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  • #
    Peter Miller

    No surprisingly, the global ecoloon establishment has begun to bleat about ‘climate change’ being the cause of the disastrous fires around Fort McMurray in Canada’s province of Alberta.

    The table below shows there was a modest rise in temperatures there of around 1.9 degrees C in the 30 years between 1966/70 and 1986/90, which coincides with a 1,237% increase in the local population. So most of this increase can reasonably be attributed to UHI, the phenomenon which most alarmists like to dismiss or minimise.

    The mean temperatures at Fort McMurray, as can be seen below, stabilised around 25-30 years ago. So this proves – using classic alarmist logic – that the Fort McMurray fires were definitely caused by ‘climate change’. However, for those of us in the real world, this concept is obviously complete and utter BS.

    Average 5 Year Temperatures for Fort McMurray, Canada

    From To Max Mean Min Population
    1956 1960 31.9 -0.1 -39.9 1,110
    1961 1965 32.6 -0.5 -42.9 1,186
    1966 1970 33.1 -0.7 -42.5 2,614
    1971 1975 32.2 -0.3 -41.9 6,847
    1976 1980 31.1 0.8 -41.5 15,424
    1981 1985 33.1 0.6 -41.8 31,000
    1986 1990 33.9 1.2 -39.7 34,949
    1991 1995 33.1 1.2 -40.0 34,706
    1996 2000 34.4 1.9 -39.2 33,078
    2001 2005 33.3 1.5 -39.8 38,667
    2006 2010 32.3 1.3 -38.4 47,705
    2011 2015 32.5 1.3 -38.3 61,374

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    • #
      AndyG55

      I posted a link to a 25 year graph of Fort McMurray temperatures on the last thread

      Basically dead flat.

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    • #
      clive

      The Canadians are having the same problems that we in Australia have had in the past with the Eco-Loons interfering with our controlled bush fire burn-offs.After a number of out of control fires in Qld,Tassy,Victoria and NSW were shown to be caused by their”Interference”they have been keeping a low profile,lest they get strung up by the people for their”Meddling”in things they have no idea about.There is also a rumour that it may have been deliberately lit,as it’s near the “Tar Sands”that they hate.

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      • #
        Manfred

        Fort McMurray Wildfire – Climate or Incompetence? Eric Worrall

        From my thread post at WUWT.

        Fuels Management

        Most provinces do not have fuel management or mitigation programs, and the few that do exist are in the early stages of development, with limited funding. In some cases there may be regulatory barriers to fuels management, such as a requirement that forest plantation stocking levels be maintained following forest management activities on Crown land or that timber cut during fuel treatments be included in the annual allowable cut.

        ..in other words, forget trying to construct meaningful fire breaks and ensure trees are planted in developing urban areas.

        And from the euphemistically entitled: “Fire Smart – Chapter Eight. Communities Taking Action – Templates for Success”:

        Wildfire is a common occurrence in the region, from within the city limits and from large uncontrolled wildfires advancing towards the city. Wildfire has threatened homes in Fort McMurray several times in the past. Fires within the city limits in 1980, 1986, and 1995 threatened buildings and resulted in joint fire suppression action between Alberta Environment, Land and Forest Service and the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Fire Department.

        It is abundantly clear that “climate,” with the exception of the political climate, never had anything to do with the current disaster at Fort McMurray.

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    • #
      AndyG55

      I know its probably wrong to say this….

      But imagine if all those people in the Fort McMurray area had to rely on electric cars, or horse and buggy, rather than fossil fuelled SUVs etc to escape from the fire.

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      • #

        I noticed an awful lot of medium and large SUV’s and trucks (what those people in the U.S. and Canada call utes) in those huge convoys leading out of that fire zone.

        Good luck removing one in two, three, or four of them with their emissions reduction targets.

        Tony.

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        • #
          Rod Stuart

          A 4X4 is virtually a necessity in that neck of the woods. Nine months of winter and three months of poor skating. I lived in MacMurray in ’76 and ’77.

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          • #
            Analitik

            Could you get around with a vehicle like a Subaru Forester or Passat Alltrack?
            Or do you need a behemoth for the ground clearance?

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            • #
              Rod Stuart

              MacMurray has all the mod cons like snow removal now I suppose. In those days the best way in and out was by air.
              In the early ’70′s it was a Hudson’s Bay Company trading post with thousands and thousands of trailer camps to house the armada of labour brought in to build the Great Canadian Oil Sands plant and the Syncrude synthetic crude oil plant. I had a company supplied 4×4 GMC 3/4 ton pickup. In those days a Forester would just be high centered in the snow. Also the rear engine would tend to allow the front end to ride up on the drifts like a ski, I suspect. I lived for years further north and the best vehicle I had for snow was a GMC 4×4 Jimmy with tungsten studded tires all round. In the Spring one had to contend with the mud. In the Spring of ’77 most of the town was evacuated due to flood. There was an ice jam on the Athabasca River. Eventually the military came in and blasted it to bits once the temporary population been evacuated.

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          AndyG55

          did you see any electric cars.. A Prius, a Volt ?

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        • #
          toorightmate

          Tony,
          CO2 from vehicles is OK.

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    • #
      Rod Stuart

      The new green NDP government prompltly cut the forest management budget 70% immediately after gaining power. Coincidence?

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    • #
      Ian George

      ‘The Chinchaga fire, also known as the Wisp fire or the Chinchaga River fire, was a forest fire that burned in northern British Columbia and Alberta in the summer and early fall of 1950. With a final size of between 1,400,000 hectares (3,500,000 acres) and 1,700,000 hectares (4,200,000 acres), it is the single largest recorded fire in North American history.’

      At the moment, the Fort McMurray fire has burnt out 156,000 hectares. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach the 1950 figure,

      40

      • #
        Rod Stuart

        The Miramichi fire is generally considered to be the granddaddy in Canada.
        It was due to the climate change caused by the predominance of SUV’s in 1825 no doubt.
        It destroyed 16,000 square kilometers. It lives on in infamy even today in Atlantic Canada.
        A common colloquialism in reference to someone with whose argument one disagrees is “He doesn’t know whether his a**e was bored, punched, reamed, or burned out in the Miramichi Fire!
        [Editorial discretion applied] Fly

        20

  • #
    Peter Miller

    Hopefully this table works out better

    From To Max Mean Min Population
    1956 1960 31.9 -0.1 -39.9 1,110
    1961 1965 32.6 -0.5 -42.9 1,186
    1966 1970 33.1 -0.7 -42.5 2,614
    1971 1975 32.2 -0.3 -41.9 6,847
    1976 1980 31.1 0.8 -41.5 15,424
    1981 1985 33.1 0.6 -41.8 31,000
    1986 1990 33.9 1.2 -39.7 34,949
    1991 1995 33.1 1.2 -40.0 34,706
    1996 2000 34.4 1.9 -39.2 33,078
    2001 2005 33.3 1.5 -39.8 38,667
    2006 2010 32.3 1.3 -38.4 47,705
    2011 2015 32.5 1.3 -38.3 61,374

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    • #
      Gee Aye

      Do you have rainfall data… 2-3 years more relevant though

      10

      • #
        AndyG55

        rainfall

        http://fortmcmurray.weatherstats.ca/charts/precipitation-25years.html

        2015 and 1998 were lowest rainfall… wonder why. ;-)

        2016 rainfall is pretty much on average for this time of year
        Fort McMurray gets most if its rainfall late May – October.

        Apart from a couple of higher years in the early 1990′s, last few years pretty normal.

        41

        • #
          Rod Stuart

          Rainfall is nearly irrelevant in the Great White North.
          It’s the snowfall. Snowfall is not unusual in every month of the year.

          50

          • #
            AndyG55

            Actually Rod,

            That graph is “total precipitation”

            21

          • #
            JohnRMcD

            I lived in a place roughly at the same latitude as Fort Mac, but two provinces east, in 1967-68. In February-March of 1968 the Maximum temperature for two months was -30F, and the Minimum (that I saw on a thermometer) was -50F. The “break up” of the ice on the lakes was in mid-May.
            The previous year it snowed at least once every month of “summer”. And that place was Black Spruce Boreal forest country. I am staggered that anything burned. But maybe that was a wet-cold-undry period.

            30

            • #
              Rod Stuart

              JohnR
              That would have to be Thompson.
              I worked in T1 800 foot level in the summer of 1967.
              Did you live in the INCO camp?

              30

          • #
            Gee Aye

            Thanks…yes snow and rain. Anyway was the dry dry?

            10

        • #
          Gee Aye

          Something caught fire. Average wet on top of extreme dry was evidently not enough. My question was really how dry does it usually get?

          10

          • #
            AndyG55

            Was reading a comment on another site, can’t remember where, but according to a local, there is often a 2-4 week period after the snow goes and before the rains in May and June, when the trees haven’t started new green growth and can often be extremely dry and ready for combustion.

            20

  • #
    James Murphy

    This article briefly discusses the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles in the search for Malaysian Airlines flight 370.

    There are quite a few things which are interesting about it, especially the endurance of these vehicles, as well as that “…the initial seabed survey revealed that the actual water depths in some areas were more than a mile shallower than what existing ocean maps suggested…”

    We can supposedly predict the climate 100 years into the future, yet we still don’t have accurate global ocean floor maps… (I guess this means that all the “missing heat” could be shallower than imagined?

    On the plus side, it seems we are at the point with technology where humans (presumably sea-sickness) are less reliable than equipment, although Fugro make a lot of money out of the oil industry, so they would be saying that when presenting at the massive annual oil industry gabfest in Houston…

    50

    • #
      Annie

      If seabed depths haven’t been measured accurately to within a mile, what does that say for the accuracy to millimetres of readings of sea level?

      90

    • #

      “when presenting at the massive annual oil industry gabfest in Houston…”

      Interesting stuff! 2-18-2016:
      http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/saudi-oil-minister-to-address-industry-at-houston-gabfest/news-story/64750bedc2dd1dad8ba51027cfe9bffc
      GOOGLE “massive annual oil industry gabfest in Houston…”

      Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi will join top North American and European drillers in Houston this week to debate how long the oil bust could last and how geopolitics is reshaping the energy world.
      Hundreds of oil and gas executives and world leaders are expected to gather for IHS CERAWeek, the annual confab in the world’s energy capital, which routinely draws influential players across the sector.

      Then 5-07-2016: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SAUDI_ARABIA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-05-07-10-52-31

      DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Saudi Arabia on Saturday announced the ouster of its longtime oil minister as part of a larger ongoing government shakeup.
      A royal decree announced that Ali al-Naimi has been replaced by former Health Minister and Saudi Aramco board chairman Khaled al-Falih.

      Best be careful when transporting jellied bread across the carpet!

      30

      • #
        James Murphy

        I went to one OTC in Houston when the oil price was nice and high, and, quite frankly, the Americans do it bigger and louder than any other equivalent industry conference. it was staggering to say the least. This year, I am not so sure it would be the same scale of decadence and waste.

        I am disappointed to see ‘gabfest’ used elsewhere about the very same conference, I thought it was an underused term, but now it just looks like I stole it.

        40

  • #
    Ruairi

    The wind-farm locals quickly learn to see,
    Through climate research from the B.B.C..

    The Left use carbon trading for control,
    With central power as their final goal.

    Beware those parties with a new found zeal,
    To end the ‘warming’ by some ‘carbon’ deal.

    A few investors think they mitigate,
    The climate they’ve been told has changed of late.

    Though many voters sing their party’s praise,
    They may not follow through on voting days.

    With fiscal failure comes the Green demise,
    As skeptic numbers worldwide start to rise.

    The Abbott plan to most is common sense,
    But Greens,like many forests, can be dense.

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      If sonnetist is a word, then it should definitely be applied to you.

      If it is not a proper word, I claim ownership, and bequeath it.

      80

      • #
        Ruairi

        Rereke and jorgekafkazar,
        Your sentiments are appreciated.
        The Collaborative Interactive Dictionary gives Sonnetist as :A sonneter or sonneteer.

        20

    • #
      jorgekafkazar

      It scans AND rhymes, a rarity in today’s poetry.

      40

  • #
    Ian George

    According to the BoM for April in NT, the anomaly for the max mean temp was +2.88C (third highest on record). Yet if you average the actual station data, the anomaly is only 2.38C.
    Only 8 out of the 38 sites average over the stated anomaly. Only one district has an average of over the 2.88 anomaly (14F) and this only comprises two individual sites.
    If one looks at the max mean map shown in the summary, there is a 4/5C shading – yet the highest anomaly was 4.1 at Lajamanu AP, which is well north of the shaded area.
    Once again the ‘shading algorithm’, from which the mean average is calculated, bears little resemblance to the actual station data to the tune of half a degree.
    Map
    http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap/temperature/maxanom/month/colour/history/nt/2016040120160430.gif
    Summary
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/nt/summary.shtml

    61

  • #
    handjive

    Breaking: Mann Quits Climate Science

    Washington, D.C.—Michael Mann, Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at Penn State University, has used an appearance in the nation’s capital today to announce his retirement from science, which he called “the highest and noblest human vocation.”

    The groundbreaking researcher cited the ordeal of “being dragged through the courts by deniers on both sides of the [USA-Canada] border” as another stressor distracting him from his true love: groundbreaking research.

    >Easy to fix Mikey as it’s you dragging Mark Steyn through the courts!

    Ya gotta feel sorry for him?

    Michael Mann survives vicious subway attack

    “Security camera footage obtained by Climate Nuremberg shows two men approach Dr Mann and strike up a conversation in bad faith.

    The video reveals the sickening moment when their Gish gallop of disingenuous talking-points finally overpowers the scientist’s objections.

    The culprits were never caught.”

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      At 51? Leaving all that funding behind.

      I am sceptical.

      90

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        I suspect he is having to face-up to preparing another funding bid, and has crunched the numbers. Does anybody here, know if he is he tenured?

        90

      • #
        handjive

        Graeme No.3,
        I to am sceptical.

        He was hospitalized for a week in 2014 after two men approached him on the Washington Metro and assaulted his arguments without provocation.”

        For being attacked with a gish gallop?

        I lol’d.

        50

      • #
        Analitik

        Most likely he’ll hit the talk show, guest speaker circuit ala James Hansen/Al Gore – much more lucrative and he needn’t publish any more papers to get attacked.

        40

    • #

      For anyone who’s interested, here is a good roundup of media reactions (the day after) to Mann’s bombshell announcement.

      20

      • #

        Brad,
        Can you please explain how you can, in an essay of 200 words, express satire such a way; that if one chooses any three word phrase, the middle word is perzactly the bestest word that can be used at that location? Hows ya’all do dat?
        If you were more profound; you would be Pointman!! :-)

        30

      • #
        KinkyKeith

        Brilliant.

        :-)

        10

    • #
      Reed Coray

      Ya gotta feel sorry for him?

      When pigs fly. It makes as much sense to feel sorry for Mann as it does to feel sorry for the defendant who after murdering his parents asks for mercy from the court because he’s an orphan.

      30

  • #
    James Murphy

    Just when I thought the EU could not get much sillier, it’s now proposing fines for countries which do not take refugees. (At least now I know the EU consider a human life to be worth 250000 euros). I am not wanting to turn this into a discussion about migration, refugees, and other matters which, as I have been reminded in the past, are not really on-topic for this blog.

    However, the concept of imposing fines for disobeying the central authority looks to me like another shining example of the Brussels brigade moving towards their goal of removing any individuality and authority amongst member nations. (note that there is no mention of what would happen to the money…)

    90

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      I think the fine is for saying “Non!”, to Brussels per se. I don’t think the quarter million Euros is a per capita fine.

      If it were a per capita fine, that would make each refugee worth more than an EU Commissioner’s per diem discretiionary expenses, and they won’t stand for that.

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      • #
        James Murphy

        It’s definitely per person. I have to love the use of language in this – so much talk of solidarity, fairness, sustainability… maybe they have a list of keywords they have to put into every single press release?

        “…A Member State will also have the option to temporarily not take part in the reallocation. In that case, it would have to make a solidarity contribution of €250,000 for each applicant for whom it would otherwise have been responsible under the fairness mechanism, to the Member State that is reallocated the person instead…”
        From here:
        http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-1620_en.htm

        40

    • #
      clive

      This will make it easy for the Brits to vote for a BREXIT,in July.Another”Own goal”from the EU.

      60

      • #
        James Murphy

        according to the link in 13.1.1 above, the UK and Ireland don’t have to do anything… if they don’t want to – I wonder how they negotiated that?

        40

    • #
      Manfred

      I see the usual methods of applying the double benefit, legal pressure to create adherence in the form of fines and taxes raises money (benefit 1) and ‘solves’ the problem (benefit 2).
      Like stunned mullets the political classes across the Atlantic wonder why The Donald garners the support he does. It’ll be interesting to see whether ‘The Donald Effect’ is expressed in Brexit.

      30

  • #
    el gordo

    If TdeF is correct about Malcolm’s intention to woo the Greens at the expense of right minded Liberals and Nats then we need to discuss this in depth before the polls.

    60

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      … we need to discuss this in depth …

      How low do you want to go?

      80

      • #
        aussiepete

        How low do you want to go?

        With the news that Lin Hatfield Dodds has joined Martin Parkinson at the top of the Dept. of Prime Minister and Cabinet, just scratching the surface is surely enough.

        70

    • #
      clive

      We only have one option.Time for us to give these”Do Nothing,Career Politicians”from both sides,the BOOT.

      60

    • #
      Yonniestone

      I’ve seen the same scenario outlined but with the ALP doing this instead of Liberal/Turnbull, either way its a very real possibility as the Greens aren’t much use for anything else outside of appeasing a few inner city luvvies and rural ecotard types.

      60

    • #
      aussiepete

      el gordo
      I agree with your concerns, especially now that the “TdeF hypothesis” is looking more credible with each passing day.It has been pretty well discussed here already, as you know. Many and varied thoughts have been put forward. I will add this one to the mix, not having read it anywhere.The balance of power in the Senate, if held by say six independents results in a rag-tag of legislation. e.g A particular Senator says “I’ll support you if you build a footy ground in my home town of Kickatinalong, another wants a submarine in their State. Imagine this kind of thing, times 6 times 3 years. On the other hand a block of Senators from one independant Party, with known principals and values and a National perspective, voting on legislation according to those known principals and values.
      The latter is much more preferable to me and so i will be voting ALA in the Senate.

      40

      • #
        el gordo

        The ALA doesn’t say much about the weather and the thought crossed my mind that they maybe clueless on a whole range of issues, but I’m open to persuasion.

        00

        • #
          PeterPetrum

          El Gordo, I agree, but at this stage what they do have is fairly middle of the road. Now is not the time to approach them with a barrel of information as they have candidates to choose (24 being interviewed at the moment) and an election to fight. If they get some candidates into the Senate, that will be time for us (with Jo’s coordination, perhaps) to make sure that they are educated on this issue, as it is important that they know the arguments required to vote against the inevitable Turnbull or Shorton ETS.

          20

        • #
          Rod Stuart

          From the ALA manifesto:
          6. Affordable Energy for a Cleaner Australia
          Life as we know it ends without reliable access to affordable, clean, safe energy and a healthy environment. Australia has enormous reserves of Thorium and Australian
          Liberty Alliance will investigate the use of efficient and safe options to replace our ageing coal-fired power stations.
          We will phase-out unsustainable subsidies for uneconomical and unreliable energy sources connected to our power grid. However, we will continue to assist Australians in remote and rural off-grid locations with sensible wind and solar technology. We will reduce our dependency on oil-based fuels through the promotion of abundantly available natural gas for CNG-powered vehicles and foster research, production and export of non-combustive engines for cars and other applications.

          10

        • #
          AndyG55

          I wrote a nice little email to them.

          “Dear Sirs or Madam,

          If an ETS or other carbon pricing was proposed by either Liberal or Labor.

          What would ALA vote.. For or against?

          Thanks.”

          A single one word answer…

          “AGAINST”

          10

      • #
        PeterPetrum

        Let’s all give ALA our first (and where two candidates exist – second) preferences, and then pick those senators who voted for Tony Abbott, then the Nats. Can’t be worse than it is now.

        20

  • #
    aussiepete

    It came to me in a BGO (Blinding Glimpse Of the Obvious).Should America decide to attack Australia then China will come to our defence in order to protect their strategic assets here,things like food production,real estate, Darwin Harbour and indeed many of their own citizens.
    She’ll be right mate!

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  • #

    The misunderstanding of the role of Photosynthesis

    With the debate on climate change, ex global warming, the are many comments made that carbon dioxide is a fertilizer or plant food. These diminish the role of Photosynthesis and carbon dioxide.

    1. What is Photosynthesis

    It is a photo-chemical reaction that occurs in all green plant cells whereby carbon dioxide ad water are converted into carbohydrate (sugars) and the gas oxygen in the presence of light.
    Like all chemical reactions its rate can be increased by increases in temperature, substrate and in this case light intensity. This is very easy to demonstrate with a fish tank and aquatic plants by counting the oxgen bubbles.
    The green chlorophyll molecule in green plants is basis of photosynthesis. These molecules are contained in the chloroplasts of plant cells and convert light energy into the ATP molecule which in turn reduces carbon dioxide into sugars and oxygen.

    2. Where does it occur

    Literally, everywhere on the planet, the tundra, grasslands, orchards, crops, and most importantly in the oceans and the forests.
    Little photosynthesis occurs with atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide below 200 ppm. and greenhouse growers use levels of 1000-1200 ppm. to enhance the growth of crops.
    Levels of 4000-5000 ppm. are reached in submarines without duress to crew. With levels of 100,000 ppm. symptoms such as increased breathing becomes apparent, and at 500,000 ppm. carbon dioxide is lethal.

    3. Its importance to life

    Since life is based on the chemistry of carbon and its various compounds it is vital, and life as we know it would not exist. Only plants are able to synthesise carbohydrate by converting light energy, whilst animals use this energy for sustenance through the various food chains.
    Yes, if the planet gets warmer, as it was in Roman and Medieval times, and there is more carbon dioxide to synthesise, it will be beneficial for mankind rather than the commonly held political viewpoint, the basis for which is dubious.

    4. Effect of carbon abatement policies

    Such policies are very unlikely to have any tangible effect on the carbon cycle as most carbon dioxide is in the lakes and oceans (about 97%), and this is controlled by its solubility in water. Large amounts of carbon dioxide come from nature, swamps, volcanoes, under water fissures, and the breakdown of organic matter.

    There are two outlets for atmospheric carbon dioxide; it either goes into the oceans where it is used by the phytoplankton for carbohydrate sequestration and it is also used by fish, molluscs, coral reefs to form calcium carbonate; or it used directly by plants and trees for growth.

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    • #
      Manfred

      Unfailingly overlooked perhaps – the obvious: plants do not photosynthesize at night. Instead, they consume O2 and respire using on-board ‘fuel’ manufactured during photosynthesis, producing CO2, more plant fertiliser for their daytime photo-activity. Plants epitomize in many ways, the concept of sustainability, far better than any local council obsessed with all permutations around the word ‘cycle’.

      As an aside, many will know that the porphyrin ring structure is common to both humans and plants. Human haemaglobin confers the oxygen binding ability on a red blood cell. The porphyrin ring of haemaglobin is built around an iron atom. In the case of plants, their chlorophyll enables the process of photosynthesis dependent on a prophyrin ring built not on iron, but on a magnesium atom.

      00

  • #
  • #

    I wonder how the new Submarine project fits with the emissions reduction targets of the ALP and The Greens, and even the Coalition, considering the last of them is not due for delivery until 2060.

    Oh, and by the way, I had a look at the French Company which was selected, DCNS.

    One of the co-owners of DCNS is Thales, a 35% stake in DCNS.

    Thales is one of the primary military equipment suppliers in Australia, and have a very large presence here in Oz, 3200+ employees at 35 sites and more than a $1 Billion turnover here in Oz last year.

    Think of Thales, think of the Steyr, think of the Bushmaster, think of Hawkei.

    Hmm, surely they didn’t have the, umm, inside run.

    Tony.

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    • #
      Peter C

      Thales is the owner of the Williamstown Naval dockyard in Victoria. They have run out of work,since the completion of the LHD ships and may close. They may have taken a defensive stake in DCNS.
      http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/job-losses-as-historic-williamstown-naval-dockyard-set-to-shut/news-story/0f286aeb52f3609de00df46ccbec1704

      50

    • #
      aussiepete

      Tony,
      I proffer the following scenario. By the time we get around to needing a bit of steel for sub no.4, Whyalla will have long since been mothballed, with a Govt. subsidy trying to keep it at the ready for a steel order to eventuate (a la the desal plants). Should that day arrive, i envisage a phonecall from the submarine factory to the steelworks along the lines of,
      ah g’day mate,sub factory here, we need a bit of steel for our next sub, when can you do it?
      Reply;
      well, bit of problem,we need about 3 months of non-stop strong winds to get this plant back on line so, it’s bit iffy but we’ll see how we go”
      Tony, am i being too harsh?

      50

      • #
        toorightmate

        Now that we have become so good at building state of the art subs, why don’t we build state of the art fighter jets?

        20

        • #

          …..why don’t we build state of the art fighter jets?

          Yeah! Good luck with that.

          We used to have the CAC, (Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation) Which used to build military aircraft, but mostly under licence to non Australian manufacturers.

          We did do the CAC-27 which was the U.S. designed North American F-86 Sabre.

          However, as with picky Australia (also with the F-111C) we wanted that Sabre with the Rolls Royce Avon engine, a larger and significantly better engine in every respect, especially in performance and reliability. That necessitated a virtual redesign of the whole aircraft, and even though it looked similar, it was a completely different aircraft. They redesigned almost three quarters of the fuselage, with a much larger air intake and strengthened the wings. Parked alongside each other, you really noticed the difference.

          Any American pilot who saw our Sabres wished theirs were as good, as they also significantly outperformed the original as well.

          They were not only better performed, but were also a lot easier to fly as well. Because of the redesigned cockpit, that raised the cockpit, again further redesign, and the bubble canopy was taller over the pilot’s head, and that caused a few early problems with ejection, (and horrendously major ones for the pilots involved who did have to eject, as most were killed before they found out the cause, but thankfully there were only three or four of them) but again, ingenious Australian design solved that as well.

          Then we took out the original 6 machine guns and replaced that with two 30mm Aden Cannons, so it also packed more punch, and until you’ve held a 30mm Cannon shell in your hand, you don’t realise the difference in that either.

          Those days are long gone now, and it’s probably only the U.S. and a few other major Countries who can actually support a military aircraft industry. You’d be surprised how many of those early (pre 1950) U.S. military aircraft manufacturers got eaten up by bigger companies who in turn got eaten up, till now there’s only three or so left in the U.S. and it’s Boeing in the main has eaten them all up, including the original CAC as well.

          Tony.

          30

          • #
            Analitik

            Then we took out the original 6 machine guns and replaced that with two 30mm Aden Cannons, so it also packed more punch, and until you’ve held a 30mm Cannon shell in your hand, you don’t realise the difference in that either.

            The US pilots definitely noticed the difference between their 6 x 50 cals vs the MIG 15s 2 x 23mm and 1 x 37mm cannons in Korea

            Australian designers are (were?) first rate – this showed in the auto industry as well where the local GMH and Ford designers did things on low budgets that Detroit could only dream about.

            30

          • #
            aussiepete

            Tony,
            Thank you very informative and interesting but i think toorightmate was only joking.If i’m right, then you did a great job of supporting him. BTW I’m in awe of your knowledge or are you just a good Googler? lol.

            10

            • #

              Naah!

              First trades posting was to Canberras with 1(B)OCU.

              Then Sabres and Macchi’s with 5OTU, last unit with the Sabres.

              Then Mirages with 76 Squadron, up till 76 was disbanded.

              Then Mirages with 77 Squadron. One of very few electrical Tradesmen fully qualified and authorised to E3 Servicings, and that’s the aircraft stripped back to bare metal, and then rebuilt from scratch, a 9 to 10 Month servicing.

              Then later, 12 Months on the PaveTack Mod crew on the F111, and even that was only for two builds. PaveTack is the real life of what you see on CG in the movies. It first came to knowledge during Gulf War One when they started releasing those first clips of bombs blowing up individual single target designated buildings, and everyone thought that it was just CG. So accurate they could release the GBU from a distance, and fly away. The bomb would fly down the laser beam, and impact the absolute only designated target, sometimes even flying the bomb through the airconditioning outlet in the building. I would try to explain it to civilians and they thought I was making it all up.

              12 years at 4 Flying Squadrons. 4 Combat aircraft, and one Trainer.

              Great days, all of them.

              Tony.

              20

              • #
                aussiepete

                Tony, that’s a wealth of experience, i’m very impressed and apologise for my Google joke.

                10

            • #
              toorightmate

              I was trying to make the point that we should not be attempting to build state of the art subs – ludicrous.

              10

      • #

        The capacity factor for the wind turbines was 23% in April, but for 60% of the time it only averaged 13% which is only 450 MW, not a lot power do much with, and from 39 wind farms of 3669 MW capacity. It has been much higher for the past few days and approaching 85%, but even so it did drop to 20% once and what does one do when the blocking high pressure system comes?

        When is reality going to kick-in, before or after the black-outs?

        30

  • #
    Peter C

    Last night I was at a party and I got talking to a farmer from Balan, Vic. We talked about rain, naturally, and speculated about why Melbourne’s eastern suburbs get more rain than the western areas. Balan is west of Melbourne so they got less in some recent falls.

    Then he mentioned that he knew some one in the Wentworth group so I responded that they were not to be believed.
    http://wentworthgroup.org/members/
    The Wentworth group now calls themselves The Wentworth group of Concerned Scietists, probably channeling the Americal Union of Concerned Scientists.

    That segued neatly into my favorite subject. I was able to get in that: CO2 is not pollution and does not affect the Climate, long term climate change is due to the Sun, human effects on Climate are only local and the Oceans are not acid, nor acidifying.

    By this stage he was looking at me with an expression of disbelief and horror and excused himself to get another drink.

    One point he did make was that the Balan area seems to be getting less rainfall these days. I thought that was likely just a medium term cycle. However I have taken the opportunity to to look up the BOM record. The BOM has rainfall records for Balan since 1865. As far as I can see the record shows a lot of variation but no long term trend.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=087006

    I am hoping that Andy G55 can help here. It would be nice to see the annual rainfall (last column) as a graph with a trend line.
    Andy, can you explain how you graph BOM data?

    60

  • #
    Andrew McRae

    On Thursday it was Ugliness and Friday it was psychoanalysis. Really, Jo? Those last two posts should have also been tagged with “Kooky news”. I guess that’s all there is to talk about now.

    Our Parisian subjugation has not been ratified yet. As Labor left faction now own the leaders in both main parties, regardless of the election result the ratification of the Paris treaty will almost certainly occur by the end of September. Having the Turnbullites rolled immediately after a Fiberal win and replaced by cooler heads seems as unlikely as the sun rising in the west. It’s not completely game-over for skeptics, thanks to the exit clauses of the treaty, but UNEP and GS will be flush with Aussie cash for another 3 years minimum.

    As travelers expelled into a political desert, the CAGW skeptics now stagger lethargically from baked mud pan to dry salty bush, desperate for support, cackling at each climatic news absurdity like a thirsty sailor regards the ocean. Ignored by Howard, attacked by Rudd, wounded by Gillard, bereft of Tonekiel, backstabbed by Turnbull, their own shadow is their sole companion. Always hopeful the tax free image on the horizon will not be a mirage. Lurching forwards by willpower alone.

    May His noodly appendage guide us all to the promised land. R’amen.

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      aussiepete

      Andrew,
      Lovely writing, enjoyed reading it, but
      could you do it again in English.

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        Andrew McRae

        Nein.
        I don’t do der requests, zis would undermine my creative integrity. Clearly my art is so haute couture you cannot understand it.
        Und now I must sniff mein nose in zee air und go and listen to Kraaaftverrrk.

        At least Herr Yonniestein understands me, *sniff*.

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      Yonniestone

      Warmists Warmists everywhere and all their minds did shrink,

      Warmists Warmists everywhere but not a one could think.

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    pat

    “crime of the century” trial and the English MSM has not the slightest interest in it. a few poker sites give it a mention though!

    7 May: Pokersites: Kaycee James: Poker Player Arnaud Mimran Goes on Trial for 300 million Euro Fraud
    Mimran, who lists his occupation as professional poker player “financier,” was known to play extremely select high-stakes private games in Paris, but has also attended tournaments in Monte Carlo and elsewhere. He registered for the first ever One Drop, back in 2012, but failed to attend.
    The fraud, which has been dubbed “the crime of the century” by French media, involved the trading of CO2 emission quotas and exploited a loophole in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. Emission quotas can be traded as commodities for big money as part of government-mandated economic incentives to help battle pollution and global warming…ETC
    http://www.pokersites.com/news/poker-player-arnaud-mimran-goes-trial-e300-million-fraud-9201

    French English-language France 24 manages a whole article:

    5 May: France24: Aude MAZOUE: Multi-billion euro carbon-trading fraud trial opens in Paris
    A ‘flawed’ system
    Despite the good intentions behind the EU ETS, it was an imperfect system that was easily exploited.
    “The structure was poorly conceived from the start and had some real flaws,” Katheline Schubert, an environmental economics professor at the Sorbonne university in Paris, told FRANCE 24.
    Investigators believe that a group of three men – Mardoche Mouly, Arnaud Mimran and Samy Souied – realised this, and devised a scheme to defraud billions of euros by purchasing emission allowances on the European market from abroad, using a complex network of shell companies and offshore accounts in Latvia, Cyprus and Hong Kong…
    But the money needed to be laundered before it could be reinvested. This involved placing it in a bank in China, where it was then handed over to businesses or transformed into playing chips at casinos, among numerous other ploys…
    “Fortunately, [the system] has since been fixed and the same sort of fraud is no longer possible. But it is still vulnerable to other schemes. A swindler’s imagination has no limits,” Schubert said.
    Of the 12 people on trial, only five appeared in court on Monday. Among them were two of the three suspected masterminds of the scheme, Mouly and Mimran. Their alleged partner, Souied, was gunned down by two men on a scooter on September 14, 2010, and will be tried posthumously. The other six defendants in the case are believed to have fled to Israel…
    “It’s extremely difficult to identify the assets of those behind the [fraud],” an investigator in the case was quoted by French daily L’Express as saying. “They’ve spread [it] out among incorporated companies and tax havens”.
    http://www.france24.com/en/20160503-france-trial-multi-billion-carbon-emissions-trading-fraud-opens-paris

    online searches have no ABC/Fairfax/Guardian coverage whatsoever for this sensational CAGW tale, which also involves a favourite topic of theirs, tax havens.
    Politico’s Morning Energy did at least find space for a mention way down the page on 5 May:

    Politico Morning Energy by Eric Wolff:
    FRENCH CARBON “CRIME OF THE CENTURY”: A trial of 12 people accused of carrying out or facilitating up to 1.4-billion-euro ($1.6 billion) tax fraud in the EU’s Emissions Trading System kicked off in Paris this week. Carbon Pulse reports that the case, dubbed France’s “crime of the century,” began with five suspects appearing in court this week, while seven are still at large. French businessman and professional poker player Arnaud Mimran is suspected of having orchestrated so-called ‘carousel fraud’ in the Emmissions Trading System, along with accomplices Mardoche “Marco” Mouly, who also appeared in court, and Samy Souied, who was murdered in front of Paris’ Palais des Congres in 2010 in a still unsolved case. Jaroslaw Klapucki, the director of Poland-headquartered emissions brokerage Consus SA, is also being charged with organizing tax fraud and money laundering.

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    pat

    comment #21 is in moderation.

    6 May: CNS News: Penny Starr: Al Gore: TV News on Extreme Weather ‘Like a Nature Hike Through Book of Revelation’
    Al Gore said on Thursday that the news reports of extreme weather, which he believes is caused by climate change, is like the end days described in the Bible’s New Testament’s Book of Revelation.
    “The climate-related extreme weather events – and I won’t go through all of them – but every night on the television news now is like a nature hike through the Book of Revelation,” Gore said at the Climate Action 2016 summit in Washington, D.C. (VIDEO)…
    Gore was interviewed by Audrey Choi, CEO of the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing, who also worked with Gore in the Clinton administration and now works with the Obama administration as a member of the U.S. Community Development Advisory Board.
    Choi said that the people evacuated in the Houston, Texas, area recently because of flood waters were the “first climate refugees domestically.”
    “We just relocated our first climate refugees, yes, in Houston, Texas two weeks ago,” Gore said, adding that the rainfall in that state equaled “3 ½ days of full flow of Niagara Falls…
    In the summit’s program, Gore’s slot was entitled: “Climate Change; A ***Convenient Truth.”
    http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/penny-starr/al-gore-tv-news-extreme-weather-nature-hike-through-book-revelation

    ***convenient for the carbon cowboys!

    read all. writer Starr says it’s debateable if the texans were the first US climate refugees but, instead of debunking it, goes on to suggests others in the country were the first!

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    pat

    pathetic, but MSM will love it:

    8 May: Newcastle Herald: Newcastle harbour coal blockade: live updates – photos, video
    10.25AM: Matt Carr reports
    Police have confirmed four arrests have been made so far on Sunday morning.
    A NSW Police spokeswoman confirmed a rhib was seized after a woman locked onto a coal carrier’s mooring line near Selwyn Street in Mayfield.
    The Marine Area Command arrested the woman as well as the rhib’s skipper and a second male passenger.
    A fourth person has been arrested for operating a drone near a populated area…
    PIC (WHERE ARE THE MILLENNIALS? WHERE ARE THE NUMBERS?)
    Banners on display boast slogans including “4 degree threat, time to say no to new coal” and “Look Tony, we stopped the boats”…
    Greens leader Richard Di Natale and Senator Lee Rhiannon are expected to join the protests.
    Musician Ash Grunwald and Midnight Oil’s Rob Hirst have also thrown their support behind the cause…
    http://www.theherald.com.au/story/3894106/newcastle-harbour-coal-blockade/

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    handjive

    Will Coal save Japan and the World?

    Abstract

    The central dogma is critically evaluated in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory of the IPCC, claiming the Planck response is 1.2K when CO2 is doubled.

    The first basis of it is one dimensional model studies with the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5K/km. It is failed from the lack of the parameter sensitivity analysis of the lapse rate for CO2 doubling.

    The second basis is the Planck response calculation by Cess in 1976 having a mathematical error.

    Therefore, the AGW theory is collapsed along with the canonical climate sensitivity of 3 K utilizing the radiative forcing of 3.7W/m2 for CO2 doubling.

    The surface climate sensitivity is 0.14–0.17K in this study with the surface radiative forcing of l.lW/m2.

    Since the CO2 issue is removed, coal will be the energy for the future of many nations in terms of the amount of resource and production cost.

    http://eae.sagepub.com/content/26/6-7/1055.abstract

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      KinkyKeith

      Hi Handjive,

      I agree that coal will be the energy of the future, but the rest of it is a bit like a paper from Skeptical Science.

      I bet that”paper” was written by one of John cooks psychologist mates.

      40

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    pat

    7 May: Digital Trends: Bruce Brown: Elon Musk: Fossil fuel industry propaganda is ‘unrelenting and enormous’
    Musk spoke at the World Energy Innovation Forum, held at the Tesla factory in Fremont, California, when he said, “The fundamental issue with fossil fuels is that every use comes with a subsidy. Every gasoline car on the road has a subsidy, and the right way to address that is with a carbon tax.”…
    Musk admitted that the fossil fuel lobbyists who influence politicians would make the changes he suggests difficult. He offered that the way to overcome the political challenge is to educate the public. People need to grasp the reality and scope of the threat of climate change, and understand it is directly attributable to fossil fuel use. He pointed out that proposed climate change policies in the EU have already been dropped because of economic pressure from oil companies…
    “It is quite worrying, the future of the world,” Musk said. “We need to appeal to the people and educate them to sort of revolt against this and to fight the propaganda of the fossil fuel industry which is unrelenting and enormous.”…
    Tesla makes electric vehicles and buyers get tax credits, but Musk said that’s not enough…
    The company’s electric power business goes beyond cars, providing a wider pulpit for speaking about clean energy…
    http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/elon-musk-tesla-fossil-fuel-revolt-carbon-tax/

    more ‘unrelenting and enormous’ CAGW propaganda from ABC & zoologist Krebs:

    7 May: ABC The Science Show: Robyn Williams: The Times accused of biased reporting, misrepresenting climate science
    Lord John Krebs and other eminent scientists have written to the editor of The Times accusing the newspaper of favouring climate change deniers over real science. They suggest the newspaper is influenced by a small NGO, the Global Warming Policy Foundation which denies human activity is driving climate change…
    In this report, John Krebs speaks to Robyn Williams…
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/the-times-accused-of-biased-reporting,-misrepresenting-climate/7390236

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      ScotsmaninUtah

      Pat,
      great post :D
      I did read the letter to the Times and the reference to other eminant scientists struck me as rather odd. They are all Lords or Earls !

      20

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    pat

    Uscinski has a consiracy theory!

    7 May: Newsweek: Joseph E. Uscinski: Welcome to the Conspiracy Theory Election
    What, or who, is to blame for this? Has the public become more conspiracy prone? Are Americans on the verge of a conspiracy panic? No, the best evidence suggests probably not: Americans in general have become less conspiracy-minded since the beginning of the Cold War.
    A better explanation for America’s journey down the rabbit hole this campaign season might lay in the emergence of anti-establishment populist candidates, in particular Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.
    That conspiracy rhetoric would emanate from these two contenders is to be expected—anti-establishment candidates have to have reasons for being against the establishment, and conspiracy theories fill the bill quite well…
    But Sanders’s foray into conspiracy theories appears amateurish next to Trump’s deft and almost daily use of them…
    A new poll (LINK) shows that Trump’s supporters are the most likely to believe in several conspiracy theories as well. They are most likely to have responded that the following conspiracy theories are “definitely true” or “possibly true”: that global warming is a fraud, that vaccines cause autism and that Hillary Clinton knew about Benghazi in advance and allowed the attacks to occur….
    Trump’s rhetoric creates what some social scientists describe as a vicious cycle of cynicism. Mere exposure to Trump’s conspiracy rhetoric ***could lead people to lose trust in government and other institutions writ large. This could in turn lead people to adopt more conspiracy theories…
    http://www.newsweek.com/welcome-conspiracy-theory-election-456654

    ***”could lead people to lose trust”? huh! Associated Press survey in April: Just 6 percent of people say they have a lot of confidence in the media, putting the news industry about equal to Congress and well below the public’s view of other institutions.

    the poll:

    4 May: Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind Poll Finds Trump Supporters More Conspiracy-Minded Than Other Republicans
    Methodology – The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone April 13-17, 2016 among a random national sample of 809 registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, including the design effect.

    recent FDU polls:

    28 April: Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind Poll Finds Gender Considerations Cause Voters to Favor Democratic Candidates
    Latest poll shows Clinton would fare best against Trump out of all GOP Contenders

    02MAR2016 No Love for Christie After Trump Endorsement

    surely pollsters we can trust…not!

    20

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    Rod Stuart

    This is a very interesting essay, written by Charles Clough, Retired Chief, US Army Atmospheric Effects Team, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD President, Bible Framework Ministries.
    “We observe this reversion to paganism in Al Gore. In 2002 he told Newsweek he was a Christian, a Protestant, and a Baptist. Yet he had already abandoned biblical truth ten years
    earlier when he wrote Earth in the Balance. Seeking for a nature-centered faith that would unite all mankind, he wrote: “The fate of mankind, as well as of religion, depends upon the emergence of a new faith in the future. Armed with such a faith, we might find it possible to resanctify the Earth.”

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    Bob Malloy

    Dozens of Climate Change protesters block Newcastle Harbour in anti coal protest. The hypocrites nearly to a one were on the harbour in their molded plastic canoes and kayaks all made from fossil fuels.

    http://www.nbnnews.com.au/2016/05/08/over-60-protesters-arrested-on-mothers-day-in-newcastle/

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      Analitik

      And The Greens leader Richard Di Natale was out there with them. I hope the ones who trespassed the actual premises get billed for the police presence required.

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      toorightmate

      Gang Green.

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  • #

    Thank you Joanne!, for an observation of science from:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/06/11/atmospheric-convection-what-does-it-mean/comment-page-8/#comment-116357
    suricat RD: says: May 8, 2016 at 1:10 am
    Roger Clague RC: says: May 7, 2016 at 6:42 pm
    RCL:(“The water vapour molecules displace a corresponding amount of the other gases, N2 and O2 The corresponding amount is the number of molecules, not the mass of molecules. As a result the density becomes less and buoyancy is created by this molecular property of gas.”)

    RD: “I think you just ‘hit the nail on the head’ here Roger (I assume you intend that “The corresponding amount is the number of molecules, not the mass of molecules.” should read that ‘The corresponding amount for a volume is the number of molecules within that volume, not the mass of molecules for that same volume.). There are differences between ‘HE’ (Hydrostatic Equilibrium for liquids) and ‘EE’ (Electrostatic Equilibrium for gasses).”

    There are differences between Hydrostatic Equilibrium for incompressible (constant density) liquids and an atmospheric attractor equilibrium (never realized in the dynamic) between the repulsive coulomb electron field force between atmospheric molecules and the compressive (attractive) gravitational field force upon those very same atmospheric molecules. Full stop, to be continued perhaps!
    All the best! -will-

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    Since #30 involving nothing political, controversial, only scientific is in moderation, please let me introduce such that needs to be moderated!
    In the USA we have the extremely useful, powerful, and accurate expressive word NIGER!
    Long ago such was used to identify slaves of dark skin color, imported against their will, from Africa, for cheap labor in the southern USA. mea culpa.!!
    Today through mid America that same powerful word Niger correctly identifies those humans having low or no personal integrity.

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      KinkyKeith

      eaney meany miney moe ..

      Will.

      I am shocked.

      And it sure does cry out for moderation.

      But

      Cunning to have misspelt the supposed offending word and then try to con us that you got an offending word through moderation when you actually didn’t.

      Kk

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        Clarified meaning; directed to specific individual, not group or race! Different spelling, same pronunciation. Same word power, intentionally derogatory! Happens often in any language. How is that word now used at your local welding shop?

        01

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